... However, this enterprise is largely limited to attempts to forecast national level elections: predicting presidential election outcomes or, occasionally, congressional seats gained/lost by the president's party. Explanations of gubernatorial election outcomes abound in the literature examining such factors as incumbency and challenger quality (Squire, 1992;King, 2001), economic conditions (Chubb, 1988;Stein, 1990;Howell and Vanderleeuw, 1990;Leyden and Borrelli, 1995;Svoboda, 1995;Niemi, Stanley & Vogel, 1995;Atkeson and Partin, 1995;Carsey andWright, 1998), issues (Kone andWinters, 1993;Cook, Jelen & Wilcox, 1994;Niemi, Stanley & Vogel, 1995;Lowery, Alt & Ferree, 1998), and the all-important question of the influence, or lack thereof, of national-level forces (Holbrook, 1987;Chubb, 1988;Tompkins, 1988;Simon, 1989;Atkeson and Partin, 1995;Carsey and Wright, 1998). ...