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Modelización del ciclo fenológico reproductor del olivo (Olea europaea L.)

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The olive (Olea europaea L.) is the leading commercial tree crop in the Mediterranean area. Its reproductive cycle displays considerable variations due to inherent genetic factors but also to climate response. This thesis provides a detailed analysis and modelling of the olive reproductive cycle and its response to a range of environmental variables in the southern Iberian Peninsula. Analysis was based on phenological, aerobiological and meteorological data recorded over the last 30 years in the province of Córdoba (Andalusia, Spain), the second-largest olive-oil-producing province in Andalusia, which is in turn the world’s largest producing region. A more thorough knowledge of the factors governing year-on-year changes in olive flowering and fruit production is clearly of agricultural interest. It is also useful for medical purposes—since olive pollen is highly allergenic—and for ecological reasons, given that the wild olive Olea europaea var. sylvestris Brot., is a characteristic shrub used as a bioindicator for Mediterranean ecosystem. Although the thesis focuses mainly on the behaviour and phenological response of the olive tree in the province of Córdoba, Chapter IV offers an overview of olive production in the Mediterranean area, drawing on data for Andalusia (Spain), Italy and Tunisia. A statistical analysis is made of the correlations between various environmental factors and critical features of the olive reproductive cycle (flowering intensity, floral phenology and fruit production). The results are used in the construction of models to describe and predict the reproductive cycle, from the earliest phases through to harvest. These models are of considerable scientific interest and can readily be transferred for social applications, since they enable the prediction—several months in advance—of major biological events such as the timing, duration and intensity of flowering and the volume of fruit production. Chapters I and II “Biometeorological and autoregressive indices for predicting olive pollen intensity” and “Year clustering analysis for modelling olive flowering phenology” analyse variables relating to flowering intensity, expressed in this anemophilous species by the Pollen Index. The first chapter focuses specifically on the construction of indices to account for year-on-year variations in olive flowering intensity, while in the second chapter a cluster analysis is used to group years with similar meteorological and phenological characteristics and to distinguish those variables most influencing floral phenology, and more particularly flowering intensity. In Chapter 1, pollen production is modelled using bioclimatic and autoregressive indices which account for the influence and impact of a range of environmental variables. The method designed for the construction of these indices enables analysis of the role played by extreme weather events in flowering. The autoregressive index provides crucial information on the dynamics of the olive reproductive cycle. For the mathematical modelling of flowering intensity in Chapter II, a “three-step method” is used, consisting in grouping using a clustering technique, classification using artificial neural networks, and modelling using partial least squares regression. The findings show that the environmental variables most affecting and governing flowering intensity in the province of Córdoba are rainfall during the period prior to flowering and temperature during the month of March. Effective models are also constructed to predict pollen emission intensity; these are especially valuable in preventing symptoms in patients allergic to olive pollen. Chapter III “Modelling olive phenological response to weather and topography” examines the environmental factors affecting each phase of the olive’s floral phenology in the province of Córdoba. The topographical and meteorological variables most influencing the response of different local olive populations and varieties are identified. The topographical factors most affecting reproductive phenology are altitude and East-west orientation of the steepest slope, while the most important weather-related variables are winter temperature, spring temperature and water availability during reproductive organ development. Finally, Chapter IV “Better prediction of Mediterranean olive production using pollen-based models” analyses the factors that determine olive fruit production in the Mediterranean Basin, focussing on Andalusia—Spain’s largest olive-producing region—Italy and Tunisia; for this purpose, for this purpose, flowering intensity and weather-related factors are taken as the major variables Harvest size is modelled using data from the world’s largest olive-oil-producing regions, in order to draw overall conclusions regarding the bioclimatological characterization of the olive, with a view to enabling the construction of regional prediction models applicable to the Mediterranean Basin as a whole. The results of this thesis help to improve the bioclimatic characterisation of the olive, as well as contributing to our knowledge both of the olive’s response to environmental conditions and of the biology of its reproductive cycle. The results were obtained using new, purpose-designed statistical methods which will be useful in future research both in the study area and in other olive-producing regions, and may provide a basis for the phenological modelling of other tree species.
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... In the opinion of the Oteros (2014), the olives trees could be used as bio-indicator to realize the boundaries of the Mediterranean basin influence (Figure 1). ...
... Source: Oteros, 2014. ritorial development, centered on the rehabilitation and regeneration of the existing territories, in the containment of urban perimeters and also, in the promotion of a polycentric territorial structure. ...
Chapter
The specific richness and value of Mediterranean landscapes require a robust, well-defined, and comprehensive conservation strategy planning. Therefore, and considering the relevance of the topic in the light of the sustainability concept, those planning strategies should be based and sustained by many different studies and fields in order to provide a full view of the issue. Contextually, the present study through the use of geographic information systems (GIS) tools and methods allows addressing the evolution of forest and semi-natural areas in the Iberian Peninsula in the last three decades. With this study it was possible to verify that the land uses related to forests and semi-natural areas suffered many changes-increasing and decreasing periods; in fact, some of the reducing is concerning and should have a closer look by the territorial government authorities to give protection and conservation to this unique Mediterranean landscapes and environments.
... -The agricultural-bioclimatic boundary consists of the set of regions sharing the same types of vegetation considered as indicators of the Mediterranean region such as olives, (Moreno, 2014). This definition is linked to human activity with the same nuances as the climatic limit. ...
... The Mediterranean climatic classes evolution was assessed according to indices variation based on simulated RCP scenarios and by following up the olive tree cultivation boundary as an example of historical Mediterranean specific bioindicator. Olive 210 reproductive cycle displays considerable variations due to climate evolution among other, influencing flowering intensity mainly affected by seasonal temperature and water availability (Moreno, 2014). ...
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Abstract. The Mediterranean is one of the most sensitive regions to anthropogenic and climatic changes mostly affecting its water resources and related practices. With multiple studies raising serious concerns of climate shifts and aridity expansion in the region, this one aims to establish a new high resolution classification for hydrology purposes based on Mediterranean specific climate indices. This classification is useful in following up hydrological (water resources management, floods, droughts, etc.), and ecohydrological applications such as Mediterranean agriculture like olive cultivation and other environmental practices. The proposed approach includes the use of classic climatic indices and the definition of new climatic indices mainly precipitation seasonality index Is or evapotranspiration threshold SPET both in line with river flow regimes, a Principal Component Analysis to reduce the number of indices, K-Means classification to distribute them into classes and finally the construction of a decision tree based on the distances to classes kernels to reproduce the classification without having to repeat the whole process. The classification was set and validated by WorldClim-2 at 1-km high resolution gridded data for the 1970–2000 baseline period and 144 stations data over 30 to 120 years, both at monthly time steps. Climatic classes coincided with a geographical distribution in the Mediterranean ranging from the most seasonal and dry class 1 in the south to the least seasonal and most humid class 5 in the North, showing up the climatic continuity from one place to another and enhancing the visibility of change trends. The MED-CORDEX ALADIN and CCLM historical and projected data at 12-km and 50-km resolution simulated under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2070–2100 period served to assess the climate change impact on this classification by superimposing the projected changes on the baseline grid based classification. RCP scenarios are increasing seasonality index Is by +80 % and aridity index IArid by +60 % in the North and IArid by +10 % without Is change in the South, hence causing the wet seasons shortening and river regimes modification with the migration North of winter moderate and extreme winter regimes instead of early spring regimes. ALADIN and CCLM RCM models have demonstrated an evolution of the Mediterranean region towards arid climate. The classes located to the north are slowly evolving towards moderate coastal classes which might affect hydrologic regimes due to shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelts. These scenarios might look favourable for Mediterranean cultivation however, the expected impact on water resources and flow regimes will sure expand and directly hit ecosystems, food, health and tourism as risk is interconnected between domains. This kind of classification might be reproduced at the global scale, using same or other climatic indices specific for each region highlighting their physiographic characteristics and hydrological response.
... Distribution of olive area across the Mediterranean region (adapted fromOteros, 2014). ...
Thesis
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Biodiversity is a global asset of significant value to present and future generations. Yet, driven by the fast human population growth and associated increases in resource use since mainly the 1950s, biodiversity is now facing a major global decline. The causes of this decline are varied, but the expansion and intensification of agricultural production and animal rearing are among the primary drivers in many regions of the world. Reverting the decline is therefore dependent on policies and management solutions that reconcile agricultural production with environmental sustainability and biodiversity conservation. This thesis addresses these issues, by investigating the drivers, land-use dynamics and biodiversity effects of olive farming intensification, a widespread agricultural system across the biodiversity-rich Mediterranean region, where it is fast expanding and intensifying. We show that a fast expansion of intensive olive orchards occurred during the last three decades in Southern Portugal, mostly replacing dry annual crops (63%) and rainfed olive groves (21%), with the availability of irrigation water in large farms strongly favouring these transitions. We also show that this process strongly affects breeding and wintering bird communities, with particularly negative effects demonstrated for open farmland bird species of conservation concern, and for cavity-nester insectivores breeding within olive orchards. However, we also found potentially positive effects on frugivorous wintering bird communities, due to increased olive availability in the more intensive orchards. Taken together, our results provide important baseline information that can help predict how future agricultural and environmental policies, as well as fluctuations in global olive oil markets, can affect Mediterranean land cover change and local biodiversity. They also support the design of management guidelines for preserving biodiversity in Mediterranean olive farming landscapes, suggesting that these should consider not only the environmental impacts and risks of the intensification process, but also some potential conservation opportunities.
... Olives are the leading commercial tree crop in the Mediterranean region (Oteros, 2014). More than 97% of the global olive production is concentrated in the Mediterranean region, Spain being the main world producer (7,870,000 tons), followed by Italy, Greece, Turkey, Morocco, and Tunisia. ...
Chapter
Olives (Olea europaea L.) are the leading commercial tree crop, with olive oil production being one of the most economically important agro-food sectors, in the Mediterranean basin. In addition to oil, the three-phase oil industry generates olive mill solid waste (OMSW) and olive mill wastewater byproducts. Disposal of these waste products in the field could create a serious environmental problem due to the phytotoxic nature of the phenolic compounds and low biodegradation of the lignocellulosic biomass. Management of the large amount of waste, both solid and liquid, stemming from the production of olive oil poses a challenge for olive mill operators and producers from both economic and environmental perspectives. The main suggested products from OMSW include compost, biochar, activated carbon, biogas, and bioethanol. Valorisation of OMSW biomass subjected to these different uses is discussed.
Chapter
Olive oil, known from history for its nutritional and medicinal benefits and applications, is one of the most important economies and industries in the MENA region. Olive oil production amounts to 2.7 million tons, of which 96% comes from the Mediterranean countries, especially from Italy, Greece, Spain, Tunisia, and Morocco. The extraction process of olive oil generates tremendous quantities of highly toxic olive mill wastewater (OMWW), with an annual production of 30 million m3 in Mediterranean countries. Apart from water, the main compounds in OMWW are organic acids, phenolic combinations, and sugar. This biowaste’s main toxicity comes from their physical property represented by high electrical conductivity (6–14 dS/m) and acidity (pH = 3–5). Also, from their chemical composition of phenolic and aromatic compounds (1.5 g/L up to 10 g/L). However, phenolic substances are high-value by-products used in the cosmetic industry, which presents an intense antioxidant activity that makes OMWW a low-cost source of natural bioactive compounds. This organic waste could present a valuable source of essential elements for plants and could have fertilizer characteristics. This approach was developed by many researchers, using OMWW as a mixture with other organic wastes in biological treatment (anaerobic digestion and composting) to produce biogas and biofertilizer.
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This report includes a review of resources and alternative ingredients to feed pigs organically without the most common grains or raw materials for feed production. The main ingredients are forest fruits: acorns (Quercus sp.), chestnut (Castanea sativa), carob (Ceratonia siliqua), olive tree (Olea europaea var. sylvestris) ; pastures; forage crops: lucerne (Medicago sativa), mixed cereal-legume forage crops, winter forages (Brassica oleracea var. capitate, Brassica rapa ), sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia); horticultural crops; fruits: figs (Ficus carica) , prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica); tree fodder: mulberry (Morus alba) and other tree fodders; roots and tubers; stubbles and summer weeds; by-products: whey, olive marc, olive bone, grape marc; legume grains: lupin beans (Lupinus spp.) and other traditional legumes. Finally, silage is considered as a conservation technique for fresh products and fodders. Ethnobotanical reviews can inspire the use of traditional crops and weeds for pig feeding. So, more than 140species were at one time used as fodder or feed for pigs in the Iberian Peninsula. The text is in Spanish and includes references.
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The specific richness and value of Mediterranean landscapes require a robust, well-defined, and comprehensive conservation strategy planning. Therefore, and considering the relevance of the topic in the light of the sustainability concept, those planning strategies should be based and sustained by many different studies and fields in order to provide a full view of the issue. Contextually, the present study through the use of geographic information systems (GIS) tools and methods allows addressing the evolution of forest and semi-natural areas in the Iberian Peninsula in the last three decades. With this study it was possible to verify that the land uses related to forests and semi-natural areas suffered many changes-increasing and decreasing periods; in fact, some of the reducing is concerning and should have a closer look by the territorial government authorities to give protection and conservation to this unique Mediterranean landscapes and environments.
Article
Full-text available
The Mediterranean region is one of the most sensitive regions to anthropogenic and climatic changes, mostly affecting its water resources and related practices. With multiple studies raising serious concerns about climate shifts and aridity expansion in the region, this one aims to establish a new high-resolution classification for hydrology purposes based on Mediterranean-specific climate indices. This classification is useful in following up on hydrological (water resource management, floods, droughts, etc.) and ecohydro-logical applications such as Mediterranean agriculture. Olive cultivation is the characteristic agricultural practice of the Mediterranean region. The proposed approach includes the use of classic climatic indices and the definition of new climatic indices, mainly precipitation seasonality index Is or evapotranspiration threshold SPET , both in line with river flow regimes, a principal component analysis to reduce the number of indices, K-means classification to distribute them into classes, and finally the construction of a decision tree based on the distances to class kernels to reproduce the classification without having to repeat the whole process. The classification was set and validated by WorldClim-2 at 1 km high-resolution gridded data for the 1970-2000 baseline period and 144 stations' data over 30 to 120 years, both at monthly time steps. Climatic classes coincided with a geographical distribution in the Mediterranean ranging from the most seasonal and driest class 1 in the south to the least seasonal and most humid class 5 in the north, showing the climatic continuity from one place to another and enhancing the visibility of change trends. The MED-CORDEX ALADIN and CCLM historical and projected data at 12 and 50 km resolution simulated under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2070-2100 period served to assess the climate change impact on this classification by superimposing the projected changes on the baseline grid-based classification. RCP scenarios increase the seasonality index Is by +80 % and the aridity index IArid by +60 % in the north and IArid by +10 % without Is change in the south, hence causing the wet season shortening and river regime modification with the migration north of moderate and extreme winter regimes instead of early spring regimes. The ALADIN and CCLM regional climate models (RCMs) have demonstrated an evolution of the Mediterranean region towards arid climate. The classes located to the north are slowly evolving towards moderate coastal classes, which might affect hydrologic regimes due to shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelts. These scenarios might look favorable for Mediterranean cultivation; however, the expected impact on water resources and flow regimes will surely expand and directly hit ecosystems, food, health, and tourism, as risk is interconnected between domains. This kind of classification might be reproduced at the global scale, using the same or other climatic indices specific to each region, highlighting their physiographic characteristics and hydrological responses.
Article
Com o objetivo de caracterizar a fenologia, exigências térmicas e composição mineral de folhas de variedades de oliveira, foram realizadas observações e coletadas amostras de 2015 a 2018, em um olival em Encruzilhada do Sul. As observações foram feitas em 10 variedades: Cipressino, Coratina, Manzanilla, Arbosana, Koroneiki, Picual, Arbequina, Alfafara, Lecino e Frantoio. Para as determinações fenológicas foram observadas as datas da poda (P), início do cacho (IC), aparecimento de inflorescência (AI) e início da frutificação (IF). Para a composição mineral, foram amostradas e analisadas folhas das variedades, no inverno, primavera, verão e outono. Houve diferenças da fenologia entre variedades e entre safras. Na safra de 2015/2016 o ciclo foi mais curto que em 2016/2017. Em 2015/2016 a Arbosana e Alfafara foram mais tardias, enquanto em 2016/2017 não houve diferença entre variedades. As variedades apresentaram diferenças com relação ao teor na folha de todos os nutrientes analisados. A diferença mais evidente foi do teor de fósforo, sendo que as variedades Arbequina e Arbosana apresentaram maior teor. Os nutrientes apresentaram diferenças nos teores nas folhas nas diferentes épocas de amostragem, com exceção de cálcio e boro.
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Olive (oleae europaea L.)is one of the most important agricultural crops production and plays a role in the Palestinian economy, we analyzed the mean monthly temperature and precipitation using data from nine weather stations from the Palestine Meteorological Department, recordedin the period from 1993-2008, with the same years plant production (rain-fed) from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). Statistical tests included a bioclimatic analysis of Palestinian meteorological stations for the period previous by using bioclimatic classification of the Earth of Salvador Rivas Martinez, with regard to bioclimate factors as simple continentality index, compensated thermicity index, and annual ombrothermic index. In concluded, when we applied a correspondence analysis Bethlehem, Jerusalem and Ramallah areas were influenced by the annual ombrothermic index and simple continentality index, while Jenin, Nabuls, Tubas, Tulkareem and Salfite were affected by compensated thermicity index with large a proportion of the variance explained by axes 1 (84.98 %). We indicated that in the upper inframediterranean to mesomediterranean environments, the optimum for the olive production is achieved with value of annual ombrothermic index 3.6, simple continentality index value between 15-22 and compensated thermicity index value between 280-450.
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The in vitro pollen compatibility of the two table olive varieties 'Meski' (Tunisia) and 'Picholine' (France) was studied for five trees under irrigated conditions. Evaluation of the results demonstrated that 'Picholine' had the highest germination rate of pollen grains on standard culture medium at 86.4%. The autocompatibility test for 'Meski' showed a decrease in the germination rate from 44.8 to 21% when pollen grains were placed on a medium containing its pistil mixture. 'Picholine', meanwhile, exhibited stable or even decreased values ranging from 76 to 87% with its own pistil mixture. The 'Picholine' pollen exhibited its highest germination rate (77.6%) in the medium containing the 'Meski' pistil mixture, indicating the intercompatibility of 'Meski'. The addition to the medium of phenolic components extracted from 'Meski' pistils at three concentrations showed that the lowest germination rate of 'Meski' pollen grains (9.7%) was obtained at the highest concentration,C3 (2.826 mg. ml-1).The inhibitory effect ofthis concentrationwassignificantly lower on the 'Picholine' pollen grains at 45%.
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The phenological behaviour of seven olive cultivars from south and central Italy was studied in the environment of inland Tuscany. The potential use of artificial neural networks (ANN) in olive phenology modelling was investigated. A backpropagation neural network was trained and tested for predicting the date of occurrence of defined olive phenophases in inland Tuscany. The network was fitted using meteorological data by ten-day periods as inputs and phenological event dates as outputs. The model tested was also used to predict the responses of olive phenology to future hypothetical climate change by simulating alterations in temperature and light conditions.
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The differentiation of olive floral buds during winter is strictly correlated with flowering in the spring and ultimately with fruit production in autumn and the determination of the time of flower bud induction is important for determining the possible causes of alternate bearing and for improving management practices to correct alternate bearing. The aim of this research was to study the time of flower bud differentiation and developmental steps in the 'Gemlik' olive cultivar in 2008 (offyear) and 2009 (on year). The sequence of initiation of the floral organs in each flower bud was sepals, stamens, petals, and gynoecium. There was no visible difference between the time of differentiation and the developmental stage of the floral organs with respect to the 'on' and 'off' years during the study.
Book
The pulse of life with the seasons is a classic theme of biology, equally cap­ turing every man's curiosity about early and late milestones of every year's cycle and the critical physiologist's inquiry into life's subtle signals and responses. Natural historians of ancient and renaissance time as well as today have charted the commonsense facts behind inspired traditions of poetry and practical rules for growing food and fiber. This volume brings together several ways of organizing the basic principles of phenology. These find order in the otherwise overwhelming mass of detail that captures our fleeting attention, like the daily newspaper, and then tends to fade into the overstuffed archives of history. Is this order so obvious and understandable that there is no longer any scien­ tific challenge to "phenology" as a tradition? Or does apparent simplicity mask a complex and ultimately baffling obstacle to the understanding of seasonality in even those few indicator plants and animals we know best, not to men­ tion the less known species or races making up the rest of each major land­ scape unit or ecosystem? Denying both these hasty opinions, we think that this volume well illustrates a range of questions and answers-from soundly established (but not trivial) doctrine to exciting inquiry about how ecosystems are organized.
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Onset of the growing season in mid-latitudes is a period of rapid transition, which includes heightened interaction between living organisms and the lower atmosphere. Phenological events (seasonal plant and animal activity driven by environmental factors), such as first leaf appearance or flower bloom in plants, can serve as convenient markers to monitor the progression of this yearly shift, and assess longer-term change resulting from climate variations. We examined spring seasons across North America over the 1900–1997 period using modelled and actual lilac phenological data. Regional differences were detected, as well as an average 5–6 day advance toward earlier springs, over a 35-year period from 1959–1993. Driven by seasonally warmer temperatures, this modification agrees with earlier bird nesting times, and corresponds to a comparable advance of spring plant phenology described in Europe. These results also align with trends towards longer growing seasons, reported by recent carbon dioxide and satellite studies. North American spring warming is strongest regionally in the northwest and northeast portions. Meanwhile, slight autumn cooling is apparent in the central USA. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society
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When economic capital is calculated using a portfolio model of credit value-at-risk, the marginal capital requirement for an instrument depends, in general, on the properties of the portfolio in which it is held. By contrast, ratings-based capital rules, including both the current Basel Accord and its proposed revision, assign a capital charge to an instrument based only on its own characteristics. I demonstrate that ratings-based capital rules can be reconciled with the general class of credit VaR models. Contributions to VaR are portfolio-invariant only if (a) there is only a single systematic risk factor driving correlations across obligors, and (b) no exposure in a portfolio accounts for more than an arbitrarily small share of total exposure. Analysis of rates of convergence to asymptotic VaR leads to a simple and accurate portfolio-level add-on charge for undiversified idiosyncratic risk. There is no similarly simple way to address violation of the single factor assumption.
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Environmental factors such as suitable light and thermal conditions are essential for the reproductive development of olive buds. However, the tree and its buds have to be in a suitable responsive physiological state in order to respond. Furthermore sufficient well developed buds from the previous season with a good nutritive balance, capable to differentiate are required on the tree. In the present paper, we are demonstrating the changes in the nutritional state of the tree developing in ON and OFF years affecting the responsiveness of the buds and level of vegetative growth to the environmental conditions. After a heavy crop a nutrient dilution occurred and vegetative growth is inhibited. Thus, a following growing season is required to regain a good nutrient balance for generating vegetative growth with sufficient buds responsive to environmental differentiation stimuli for the initiation of the next ON year.
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From the beginning of this century most of the published papers in aerobiology have concerned above all the following fields: The presence of pollinic allergens in the atmosphere and not only pollen, long-distance transport models, modelling of the presence of pollen and spores in the air, the influence of air pollution and climate change on bioparticles, the phenology of allergenic plants, pollen released by alien species, phytopathology of crops, the productivity of forest plants, indoor monitoring for human health and cultural heritage protection. In many cases the problems linked to aerobiological monitoring have been handled and new monitoring techniques for counting and identifying particles and following their development have been put forward. What could be the challenges in the future for aerobiology? Perhaps three major directions of development can be foreseen: renovating theoretical aerobiology, expanding monitoring, and aerobiological information systems. In any case, aerobiology should be more proactive, in other words it should be able to facilitate and stimulate further research, therefore not only producing data used by other branches of learning. These goals could be obtained by means of more active systems, capable of providing information on the ecological dynamics of the species, and of integrating with phenological networks to improve the measurement rather than making estimates of the bioparticles dispersal. This idea could facilitate research in order to take advantage of most modern research techniques so as improve knowledge on the dynamics of bioparticles in the atmosphere, their dispersion and the effects of deposition.