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... However, these indices are used by very few scholars for studying on Bangladesh context to date. Previous studies also mainly focused on either the shift in mean value or the changes in pattern (Kamruzzaman et al. 2019a;Nowreen et al. 2012;SMRC 2009;Shahid 2009;Abdullah et al 2020;Islam et al. 2021b). The temporal distribution of six threshold temperature indices of Bangladesh and its associated effects on several fields have been assessed by Shahid et al. (2016). ...
Article
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Understanding the recent variations in temperature extremes is crucial to anticipate the forthcoming incidences of extreme phenomena. However, knowledge of temperature extremes’ spatial and temporal patterns, as well as their links to atmospheric oscillation and topography, is scarce in Bangladesh. To this end, this research intends to analyze the spatial and temporal trends in recent extreme temperatures and their relationships with oscillation indices and the topography of Bangladesh. Daily temperature data obtained from 20 meteorological stations for 1980–2017 were employed for this purpose. Results revealed increasing trends in summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), warm days (TX90p), warmest days (TXx), and warm nights (TN90p), while decline in the coldest days (TNn), cold days (TX10p), and cold nights (TN10p) was observed in Bangladesh. Spatial distribution of trends revealed an increase in SU25 and TN90p by 1.9–2.38, 2.33–2.90 days/decade, and a decrease in TX10p and TN10p by 1.7–3.3 days/decade in most regions. Besides, TR20 showed an increase of 3.22–4.17 days/decade in all sub-regions. The temperature extremes of Bangladesh showed a significant connection with multivariate ENSO index (MEI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Besides, the extremes in most regions of the country showed a significant connection with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The influence of atmospheric oscillation indices was more evident on cold days/nights than on warm days/nights. TN10p and SU25 also showed a significant correlation with elevation, which suggests an increase in cold night and summer day temperature with the increase in elevation in Bangladesh. Large-scale climate mode reanalysis revealed that a strong (weak) wind speed, enhancing (decreasing) geopotential height, and fast warming (cooling) over the northwestern (southeast) region have attributed to the variations in extreme temperature in Bangladesh to several extents. These findings will assist the policymakers in disaster mitigation and climate change adaptation in Bangladesh.
... Several studies are available on the changing climatic components in other countries (Aguilar et al. 2005;Della-Marta et al. 2007;Goubanova and Li 2007;Choi et al. 2008;Choi et al. 2009). Parameters such as temperature, rainfall and other forms of precipitations have been studied for specific areas of Bangladesh (Bevanger et al. 2001;IWM 2007;Nowreen et al. 2013;Kumar et al. 2014;Nowreen et al. 2015). To develop policies and strategies for reducing the loss of livelihood, property and life, it is important to carry out multi-hazard assessment of extreme climate indices over a longer time period. ...
Article
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Climate change is evident with the extreme climatic indices changing all over the world. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The patterns of climatic hazards here are changing with time. Such changes inevitably affect the life and livelihood of people. Focusing on this background, this study was conducted to assess the spatial variability of climatic multi-hazards in Bangladesh in relation to the extreme climate indices. To achieve the objective of this study, hydro-climatic data for the past 31 years (1990–2020) were collected from 27 stations of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Fifteen climate indices were calculated using the “RClimDex” software. The principle component analysis was used for assigning weightage to the selected indices as well as for the multi-hazard assessment. Using the indices, multi-hazard maps were prepared for the extreme rainfall, extreme temperature, and combined hazard (both rainfall and temperature). The multi-hazard maps identified the northeastern and southeastern parts of Bangladesh as high rainfall affected area, while the southwestern parts were revealed to be exposed to high temperature related hazards. The combined hazard map revealed most of the northern and southern region of the country to be in the “High” or “Moderate” extreme climate hazard zone categories. The findings are particularly alarming as the northern region has a high percentage of net cropped area falling in the high climate hazard zone. The findings of this study can guide the policy makers and academics from national to local level to develop and prioritize climate resilient programs based on the location-specific climatic hazards.
... A huge number of investigations has been performed to assess the changes of different rainfall and temperature extremes of Bangladesh (Shahid, 2009;SMRC, 2009;Shahid, 2011;Nowreen et al., 2012;Khan et al., 2019Khan et al., , 2020. Nevertheless, most of the studies were either at the regional level (coastal and inland region) or the local scale (cities or districts) (Endo et al., 2015;Shahid et al., 2016;Basher et al., 2017;Basher et al., 2020;Mahmud et al., 2018;Khan et al., 2019Khan et al., , 2020Abdullah et al., 2021;Islam et al., 2021a). ...
Article
Spatiotemporal changes in six precipitation and five temperature extreme indices of Bangladesh and their linkage with nine ocean-atmospheric oscillation indices have been evaluated in this study to provide necessary information for adaptation planning and development of early warning systems. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation for the period 1980–2017 recorded at 20 stations, homogeneously distributed over the country, were employed for this purpose. Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used to evaluate trends in weather extremes, and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was employed to anticipate the possible continuation of existing trends in the future. The cross-wavelet transform (CWT) was used to evaluate the linkage of weather extremes with oscillation indices in the time-frequency domain. The results indicate an increase in hot extremes and a decrease in cool indices in Bangladesh. An increase in the continuous dry day (CDD) and one-day maximum precipitation (RX1day) was also observed, indicating gradual drying and more susceptibility to flash floods at the same time. DFA revealed the possible continuation of existing trends in temperature and precipitation indices. Almost all the climatic extreme indices of Bangladesh were found to follow periodic cycles with different frequencies. The hot extremes were significantly associated with five out of nine oscillation indices, including Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI), Sunspot, and South Asian Summer Monsoon Index (SASMI), while cool indices were linked with AMO only. Among the precipitation indices, only CDD was positively related to AO, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and negatively associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Analysis of circulation patterns using reanalysis datasets explored that elevated summer geopotential height, no visible anticyclonic center, reduced high cloud cover, and enhanced low cloud covers contributed to increasing hot extremes in Bangladesh.
... Previous studies on extreme events in Bangladesh were either focused on the change in mean value (Shahid 2009, SMRC 2009, Nowreen et al. 2012 or observed trend (Shahid 2011. Some studies examine the future change using high-resolution regional climate model projections but focus on a specific region of the country for selected indices (Nowreen et al. 2014;Basher et al. 2017). ...
Article
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Global mean temperature is continuously rising and causing changes in the extreme climatic events. Following these changes, climate extremes—the rare events that reside in the tail of the distribution of essential climate variables—are expected to be further intensified, more frequent, and prolonged. Changes in extremes would vary spatially from region to region and thus need regional assessment for future adaptation planning. This study assesses the climate extremes at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 4 °C of global warming over Bangladesh which is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Future changes in climate extremes are assessed using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices devised by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Projections from high-resolution regional climate model ensembles are used to derive extreme climate indices. Our analysis shows overall upward changes in warm indices and downward changes in cold indices at higher specific warming levels. We found a much higher increase in extreme rainfall compared with the annual total rainfall. Increasing variability of rainfall indices is found at higher specific warming levels. Our analysis also suggests a higher increase of temperature during the winter and post-monsoon seasons, as well as an increase in the 1-day and 5-day maximum rainfall during pre- and post-monsoon seasons. A significant regional difference is found in almost all the rainfall indices. The forecasted increase of extreme rainfall and consecutive dry days (CDD) over the northeast region indicates a possibility of an increase of flash floods in the future. Moreover, the increase in the extreme rainfall over the southeast region will increase the chances of landslides.
... After IPCC (2007), future climate projections became more important for this region mainly to anticipate the impacts of the dams and reservoirs constructed at the upstream of the haor basin. The most extreme event analysis on Bangladesh was focused on either observed trends (e.g., Shahid 2011) or changes in mean values (e.g., Shahid 2009;SMRC 2009;Nowreen et al. 2012;etc.) due to the unavailability of highquality daily resolution climatic data. ...
Article
Haors are large, round-shaped floodplain depressions located in the North-Eastern region of Bangladesh. Extreme events such as heavy rainfall routinely affect the haor basin with flash floods. These haors are predicted to experience severe stress because of changes in rainfall and temperature patterns. The biotic community of the wetlands may not have enough time to adjust itself in such varying temperature and rainfall extremes. This paper evaluates various aspects of the future projections of rainfall and temperature extremes, including magnitudes and frequencies thereof. The impacts of extreme events are examined using Hadley Centre's high-resolution regional climate model known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies). Daily temperature and rainfall simulations of the 17-member ensembles are generated through Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3). These simulations are used in Rclimdex—a software specially designed for this study. A total of 12 core climate indices are computed, analyzed, and statistically examined (Mann-Whitney U test) over the space of three time slices—(1) short (2020s, i.e., 2011-2040), (2) medium (2050s, i.e., 2041-2070), and (3) long (2080s, i.e., 2071-2098). Here, the 1980s (1971-2000) are considered as the baseline period. The study has found that the highest significant variability in both rainfalls and temperatures was during the pre-monsoon season when flash floods normally occur. Also, rainy days are projected to be less frequent albeit more intense where the deeply flooded haors are located. Though the annual total rainfall does not show any difference in spatial distribution (except for in magnitude), the seasonal patterns of most extreme events show that the probable affected areas have shifted from North-east to further North. In addition, a significant increase in both RX1 (1-day maximum rainfall) and RX5 (5-day maximum rainfall) are projected during the 2080's pre-monsoon season near Sunamganj. This projection also indicates the possible frequent occurrence of flash floods with high volumes. Probability distribution frequencies (PDF) show a rightward shift in time indicating an increase in the amount of total rainfall in the future. Exceptions are, however, found in case of PDFs for consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD). The decrease in CWD is found to be more pronounced than that of CDD. All these projections made in this study are expected to contribute further in the advancements of the Master Planning of the haor area that was done by the government of Bangladesh in 2012.
Preprint
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Understanding the recent variations in temperature extremes is crucial to anticipate the forthcoming incidences of extreme phenomena. However, Knowledge on temperature extremes' spatial and temporal patterns, as well as their links to atmospheric oscillation and topography, is scarce in Bangladesh. To this end, this research intends to analyze the spatial and temporal trends in recent extreme temperatures and their relationships with oscillation indices and the topography of Bangladesh. Daily temperature data obtained from 20 meteorological stations for 1980–2017 were employed for this purpose. Results revealed that the rises in summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), warm days (TX90p), warmest days (TXx) and warm nights (TN90p), while declinations in coldest days (TNn), cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) in Bangladesh. Spatial distribution of trends revealed an increase in SU25 and TN90p by 1.9–2.38, 2.33–2.90 days/decade, and a decrease in TX10p and TN10p by 1.7–3.3 days/decade in most regions. Besides, TR20 showed an increase of 3.22–4.17 days/decade in all sub-regions. The temperature extremes of Bangladesh showed a significant connection with multivariate ENSO index (MEI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Besides, the extremes in most regions of the country showed a significant connection with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The influence of atmospheric oscillation indices was more evident on cold days/nights than on warm days/nights. TN10p and SU25 also showed a significant correlation with elevation, suggesting an increase in cold night and summer day temperature with the increase in elevation in Bangladesh. Large-scale climate mode reanalysis revealed that a strong (weak) wind speed, enhancing (decreasing) geopotential height, and fast warming (cooling) over the northwestern (southeast) region have attributed to the variations in extreme temperature in Bangladesh to several extents. Climate change adaptation and disaster mitigation in Bangladesh will benefit from these findings.
Article
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A new global dataset of derived indicators has been compiled to clarify whether frequency and/or severity of climatic extremes changed during the second half of the 20th century, This period provides the best spatial coverage of homogenous daily series, which can be used for calculating the proportion of global land area exhibiting a significant change in extreme or severe weather. The authors chose 10 indicators of extreme climatic events, defined from a larger selection, that could be applied to a large variety of climates. It was assumed that data producers were more inclined to release derived data in the form of annual indicator time series than releasing their original daily observations. The indicators are based on daily maximum and minimum temperature series, as well as daily totals of precipitation, and represent changes in all seasons of the year. Only time series which had 40 yr or more of almost complete records were used, A total of about 3000 indicator time series were extracted from national climate archives and collated into the unique dataset described here. Global maps showing significant changes from one multi-decadal period to another during the interval from 1946 to 1999 were produced. Coherent spatial patterns of statistically significant changes emerge, particularly an increase in warm summer nights, a decrease in the number of frost days and a decrease in intra-annual extreme temperature range. All but one of the temperature-based indicators show a significant change. Indicators based on daily precipitation data show more mixed patterns of change but significant increases have been seen in the extreme amount derived from wet spells and number of heavy rainfall events. We can conclude that a significant proportion of the global land area was increasingly affected by a significant change in climatic extremes during the second half of the 20th century. These clear signs of change are very robust; however, large areas are still not represented, especially Africa and South America.
Article
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South Asia covers more than 30° of latitude with weather observation stations situated from 6 °N at Galle, Sri Lanka, to 36 °N at Chitral in Pakistan. Moreover, the South Asian station network ranges in altitude from sea level to nearly 4000 m above sea level. This paper uses time series of 11 objectively defined indices of daily temperature extremes at 197 stations in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to examine the possible impacts of elevation and latitude on changes in temperature extremes over the period of 1971–2000. Trends in extreme indices are consistent with general warming only at low altitudes and latitudes. Stations at high altitudes and latitudes show both positive and negative trends in extreme temperature indices. As a notable example, the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has been known to decrease in most parts of the globe, has increasing trends over many high altitude stations in South Asia. Trends in extreme temperature indices at stations in South Asia higher than 2000 m above sea level are mostly in disagreement with those reported over the Tibetan Plateau. Observed trends at low altitude locations in South Asia suggest that these sites can generally expect future changes in temperature extremes that are consistent with broad-scale warming. High-elevation sites appear to be more influenced by local factors and, hence, future changes in temperature extremes may be less predictable for these locations.
Article
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Spatial patterns of annual and seasonal rainfall trends of Bangladesh over the time period 1958–2007 has been assessed using rainfall data recorded at 17 stations distributed over the country. Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen's slope method are used to detect the significance and the magnitude of rainfall change, respectively. Historical dry and wet months are identified by using standardised precipitation index method and their trends are analysed to assess the possible change in wet and dry events in Bangladesh. The result shows a significant increase in the average annual and pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. The number of wet months is found to increase and the dry months to decrease in most parts of the country. Seasonal analysis of wet and dry months shows a significant decrease of dry months in monsoon and pre-monsoon. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
Article
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1] Changes in indices of climate extremes are studied on the basis of daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from 116 meteorological stations in central and south Asia. Averaged over all stations, the indices of temperature extremes indicate warming of both the cold tail and the warm tail of the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature between 1961 and 2000. For precipitation, most regional indices of wet extremes show little change in this period as a result of low spatial trend coherence with mixed positive and negative station trends. Relative to the changes in the total amounts, there is a slight indication of disproportionate changes in the precipitation extremes. Stations with near-complete data for the longer period of 1901–2000 suggest that the recent trends in extremes of minimum temperature are consistent with long-term trends, whereas the recent trends in extremes of maximum temperature are part of multidecadal climate variability.
Article
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Extreme events act as a catalyst for concern about whether the climate is changing. Statistical theory for extremes is used to demonstrate that the frequency of such events is relatively more dependent on any changes in the variability (more generally, the scale parameter) than in the mean (more generally, the location parameter) of climate. Moreover, this sensitivity is relatively greater the more extreme the event. These results provide additional support for the conclusions that experiments using climate models need to be designed to detect changes in climate variability, and that policy analysis should not rely on scenarios of future climate involving only changes in means.
Conference Paper
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Many simulation experiments require much computer time, so they necessitate interpolation for sensitivity analysis and optimization. The interpolating functions are 'metamodels' (or 'response surfaces') of the underlying simulation models. Classic methods combine low-order polynomial regression analysis with fractional factorial designs. Modern Kriging provides 'exact' interpolation, i.e., predicted output values at inputs already observed equal the simulated output values. Such interpolation is attractive in deterministic simulation, and is often applied in computer aided engineering. In discrete-event simulation, however, Kriging has just started. Methodologically, a Kriging metamodel covers the whole experimental area; i.e., it is global (not local). Kriging often gives better global predictions than regression analysis. Technically, Kriging gives more weight to 'neighboring' observations. To estimate the Kriging metamodel, space filling designs are used; for example, latin hypercube sampling (LHS). This paper also presents novel, customized (application driven) sequential designs based on cross-validation and bootstrapping.
Technical Report
The study brings together existing evidence on the climate change, environment and migration nexus in Bangladesh. The evidence in the document comes from a wide variety of sources and studies, including Government of Bangladesh statistics and policy documents, academic research, working papers and other publications and research carried out by national, bilateral and multilateral organizations, NGOs and research institutions. In addition, meetings were held with a number of key experts in Bangladesh and the research also draws extensively on IOM’s growing body of work on this topic globally. The study provides an overview of the international discourse on environment, climate change and migration, outlining current thinking within this complex and increasingly visible policy debate. Turning to Bangladesh, it provides a brief outline of the country and developmental achievements and challenges, moving on to an in-depth exploration of the role of the environment and climate change in shaping the country’s long-term development and migration dynamics. Following this, the existing policy framework is outlined and a ‘policy toolkit’ of potential policy options and priorities identified, before a brief conclusion sums up the report’s main findings.
Chapter
Vulnerability of water resources considered changes in flooding conditions due to combination of increased discharge of river water during monsoon period and sea level rise for the two projection years, 2030 and 2075. MIKE11, a fixed bed hydrodynamic model, was used for the estimation of changes in river water level which was coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) for the estimation of extent of flooding. The climatic parameters for the baseyear 1990 was obtained from secondary sources and the changes of climatic parameters for the two projection years were obtained from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output. Values of these parameters were taken as input for MIKE11 model runs. Discharge values for 8 upstream boundary stations were calculated from a general relationship between changes in rainfall and runoff. The MIKE11 model also includes other parameters under development scenario that considered embanking the major rivers. Model runs gave water level values for over 4,000 output stations along the rivers all over the country except Chittagong and Chittagong Hill Tracts area. These water levels were interpolated by using GIS techniques to generate water depth spatial database for the study area. Water depth spatial database for each of the projection years was compared with that of the baseyear to find change in water depth. These values were then superimposed on “land type database” to estimate extent of flooding in terms of water depth. A combination of development and climate change scenarios revealed that the Lower Ganges and Surma floodplains would become more vulnerable compared to the rest of the study area. On the other hand, the north-central region would become flood free due to embankment in the major rivers.
Technical Report
CEGIS has conducted the study on “Adaptive Crop Agriculture Including Innovative Farming Practices in the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh” in Satkhira District, commissioned by the Climate Change Cell of Department of Environment (Component 4b, CDMP). The study has been conducted in partnership with BRRI, BARI, BARC and BUP. The main objective of the study was to find out suitable adaptation measures that have the potential to help farmers adapt to climate changes and to identify suitable varieties of crops that would be able to adapt to climate change. In order to assess and analyze the problems, the study team members appraised the existing findings from literature review and community consultation. An attempt was made to understand the present and future geo-physical environment of the study area. The CROPSUIT model developed by CEGIS was used to estimate the physical suitability of land for different types of land uses or crop cultivation. Physical suitability change under climate change scenarios was analyzed to assess potential threats to current landuse practices. Based on expert opinion, different types of rice crops and non-rice crops were selected for field-testing. For the boro season, BRRIdhan29, BRRIdhan45 and BRRIdhan47 were transplanted in the village of Roghurampur of Kaliganj Upazila. For the rabi season tomato, watermelon, okra and aroid were selected. For the T. Aman season, different varieties were selected such as BR23, BRRIdhan40, BRRIdhan41, and BRRIdhan33/39. From field experiments it was found that introduction of high yielding salt tolerant variety BRRIdhan47 could produce sustainable grain yield in the coastal regions. It was also observed that there was no salinity impact on rice production due to high rainfall during monsoon season. But in the later part, when the rainfall ceases, it was assumed that soil salinity might increase and go beyond the safe limit of rice crop (4 dS/m). So, salt tolerant T. Aman varieties like BR23, BRRIdhan40 and BRRIdhan41 may be the solution to overcome salinity impact at the later stage. Tomato, okra and aroid were grown successfully under improved management practices with raised bed and mulch in the medium saline soils of Satkhira. The existing cropping pattern of Fallow-T.Aman (Local)-Fallow or Fallow-T.Aman (Local)-Boro (Local/HYV) may be replaced with the pattern of Okra (Dharosh) - T.aman - Boro (HYV) or Okra (Dharosh) - T.aman - Tomato. Simulation experiments were conducted for five rice cultivars namely, BR23, BRRIdhan33, BRRIdhan39, BRRIdhan40, and BRRIdhan41 using two soils, Bajoa and Barisal series for transplanted aman season. Results of simulation experiments showed that the yields of all rice cultivars varied with soils and also with different climate change scenarios. Highest yield of 5839 kg ha-1 was obtained with BRRIdhan41, followed by BRRIdhan40 (4251 kg ha-1) and lowest yield of 2836 kg ha-1 with BR23. In general yield decrease was relatively small under HADC 50 scenario and large under UKTR 70 scenario. For boro season simulation experiments were conducted for five rice cultivars namely, BRRIdhan29, BRRIdhan45, and BRRIdhan47 using Bajoa series soil. Results of simulation experiments showed that the yields of all rice cultivars responded differently with different climate change scenarios. In general yield decrease was relatively small under GFDL 50 scenario and large under UKTR 50 scenario. Simulation runs were made for aroid at two locations with Barisal and Ishwardi series soils. Results showed that irrespective of GCMs and interval aroid yields increased from 2% to 9% in case of Barisal series soil. Lower yields were recorded for Ishwardi soil xiv series and also yield reduction of 4% to 13%. In case of tomato all the scenarios predicted 23% to 28% yields increase. It is difficult to confirm a crop as adaptive under climate change situations using only one season crop related data. At least three years of experimentation will be needed to confirm whether a crop is adaptive under climate change situations in the coastal region. The adapted rice and non-rice crop results along with their innovative farming practices may be expanded throughout the salt affected coastal zone of Bangladesh.
Article
Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. This paper discusses the possible impacts of climate change in Bangladesh through tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion and back water effect. The possible increase in cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal, lying south of Bangladesh, due to climate change is looked at by analyzing the cyclone data for 119 yr. Both qualitative and quantitative discussions are made on cyclone intensity increase for a sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4°C. Different scenarios of storm surges under different climate change conditions are developed by using a numerical model of storm surges for the Bay of Bengal. Possible loss of land through beach erosion due to sea level rise on the eastern coast of Bangladesh is examined. Some discussions are also made on the impacts of back water effect due to sea level rise on flood situations in the country. Finally, a few remarks are made on the adaptation options for Bangladesh in the event of climate change.
Article
Significant and rapid climate change is predicted for Arctic regions. These changes are expected to have implications for indigenous communities. This paper argues that the starting point to understand how future climate change may affect communities is analysis of past and present experience of, and response to, climate variability and change. Using a vulnerability approach, the paper provides an historical account of changing vulnerability to climate-related risks among Inuit in Igloolik, Nunavut. The research demonstrates that Inuit in Igloolik have been highly adaptable in the face of climatic stresses. This adaptability has historically been facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, resource use flexibility and diversity, group mobility, and strong social networks. However, societal changes, and more recently biophysical changes, have increased the susceptibility of people to climatic risks and have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity. The research indicates that the implications of future climate change will be influenced by the interaction between biophysical and societal changes, will vary over time in response to forces internal and external to the community, and will be differentiated among social groups.
Article
The Regional Workshop on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Asia and the Pacific metto present and discuss assessments of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forests, coastal resources, and water resources. Discussions were held in breakout and plenary sessions about the state of the science for vulnerability and adaptation assessment, conclusions that can be drawn about the vulnerability of the region to climate change, and where future research efforts should be directed. The workshop concluded that sea level rise is of greatest concern to island and coastal nations in the region, climate change will have a significant effect on agriculture, water resources are sensitive to changes in average climate conditions and to tropical monsoons and cyclones, and forests could be significantly affected by climate change. The workshop recommended that efforts to improve general circulation models continue and that countries in the region cooperate on the analyses of vulnerability and addressing adaptation measures. The workshop also concluded that results of vulnerability and adaptation assessments should be presented to policy makers and the public and that assessments continue to be undertaken to improve our understanding of the issue.
Article
Potential increase in air temperature due to climatic change and inter-annual climatic variability and its impacts on crop productivity is of major concern to crop scientists. A number of physically-based models have been developed and applied to estimate crop–environment relationships. In the present study the performance of two such models (the YIELD and the CERES-Rice) are discussed. These two models are used to estimate boro rice productivity under normal and abnormal climate scenarios in Bangladesh. This study finds that boro rice productivity at Mymensingh predicted by the YIELD is higher than the prediction by the CERES-Rice. Productivity estimates for Barisal by these two models are almost identical. Assumptions of non-identical management practices, different soil characterization procedures, different methods for calculation of dry matter production by these two models and the range of diurnal temperature variations played an important role in productivity estimates. The YIELD model predicted the lengths of the growing season under the normal and abnormal thermal climate conditions and they are to be shorter than the lengths predicted by the CERES-Rice model. The YIELD model's assumption of higher threshold temperature and a relatively simple relationship between phenology and air temperature has produced such estimations (shorter growing season). The complex data required by CERES-Rice may be an impediment for its extensive use. If input data for the CERES-Rice is not available, the YIELD model can be considered as a possible tool for various applications in crop–environment relationships.
Article
Bangladesh is very prone to flooding due to its location at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers and because of the hydro-meteorological and topographical characteristics of the basins in which it is situated. On average, annual floods inundate 20.5 per cent area of the country and this can reach as high as about 70 per cent during an extreme flood event. Floods cause serious damage to the economy of Bangladesh, a country with a low per capita income. Global warming caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. The use of climate change scenarios from four general circulation models as input into hydrological models demonstrates substantial increases in mean peak discharges in the GBM rivers. These changes may lead to changes in the occurrence of flooding with certain magnitude. Extreme flooding events will create a number of implications for agriculture, flood control and infrastructure in Bangladesh.
Article
It is argued that a necessary, but lacking, component of our approach in seeking policy responses to sustainability issues is some repeatable means whereby the relative magnitude and characteristics of these various policy problems faced in a given context can be analysed and described. To this end, a simple and tentative framework is constructed, based on the definition of the key attributes which shape policy problems pertaining to environmental change. These are: spatial scale of cause and effect; magnitude, timing and longevity of possible impacts; reversibility; mensurability; complexity and connectivity; nature of cause(s); relevance to the given polity; tractability (availability and acceptability of means); public concern; and existence of goals. These attributes inform a general taxonomy of micro-, meso- and macro-problems. The attributes and the taxonomy are described with supporting examples. To illustrate possible application of the framework, it is discussed briefly in the contexts of operationalising the ‘precautionary principle’, and policy instrument choice. It is concluded that the framework can help focus debate and operationalise vague principles, introduce relativity into the notion of sustainability, and make policy choice more efficient.
Spatial and temporal Distribution of Temperature, Rainfall, Sunshine and Humidity in Context of Crop Agriculture
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Where Land Meets the Sea: A profile of the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh
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Coastal Land Use Zoning in the Southwest: Impact of Sea Level Rise on Landuse Suitability and Adaptation Options
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