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Matching trends between recent distributional changes of northern-boreal birds and species-climate model predictions
Abstract
Species inhabiting high-latitude environments are anticipated to be exceptionally vulnerable to climate change because of the greater temperature increases projected for these regions. Earlier studies based on bioclimatic envelope models and bird atlas data from 1974 to 1989 have suggested that northern-boreal bird species may face considerable range contractions in Northern Europe by 2080. Using new bird atlas data from Finland compiled in 2006–2010, we show that the ranges of these northern-boreal bird species have already contracted by 27%, on average, compared with 1974–89. The majority (21) of the studied 27 northern-boreal bird species showed significant contractions of ranges and/or northwards shifts. Thus the range changes of northern species are in the same direction as the predictions of species-climate change models.
Supplementary resource (1)
... Albeit results of this study are limited to a single city and consider one wintering season, they are robust and illustrate that urban systems can play a crucially important habitat for wintering birds in boreal systems. This is of importance, as some species have started shifting their migration timings and even strategies, with urban resources representing a potential driver affecting migration under current climate change scenarios, also taking into account the recent post-glacial climatic history of boreal regions (Tikkanen 2006;Virkkala et al. 2014;Potvin et al. 2016). A recent study showed that wintering urban birds in a temperate region can be driven by factors such as urban noise and light pollution (Ciach and Frö hlich 2017; but see Carral-Murrieta et al. 2020 for further methodological drawbacks in correlating urban noise and urban bird diversity). ...
Information on how urban areas affect bird communities during winter in the boreal region is still scarce. With the aim of assessing such role of the urban habitats on over-wintering boreal birds, I focused on a city-wide approach in the city of Lahti (southern Finland) and two nearby forests (as controls). Point count surveys were conducted in 157 sites within the city and 30 in the control forests. In order to achieve comparable sets of data to contrast with the reference forests, I randomly selected five 30 point count sub-samples from the Lahti city-wide survey. Species richness was, in general, higher in the sub-samples from the city of Lahti. Such pattern did not show relationship with the built cover of the studied sites. Bird abundances were 3.3–5.9 times higher in the urban sub-samples when contrasted with the forest ones. Although results of this study are limited to a single city and consider one wintering season, they clearly illustrate the important role of urban systems as habitat for wintering birds in boreal systems.
... Calcarius lapponicus (Virkkala et al., 2014). Ainsi, dans bon nombre de cas, les extinctions locales sont suivies par des colonisations locales. ...
Les espoirs de stopper la crise actuelle de biodiversité reposent principalement sur les aires protégées, qui visent à écarter ou restreindre les activités humaines de ces sites. Malgré le rôle central que jouent les aires protégées dans les stratégies de conservation de la biodiversité, les études mesurant leur efficacité réelle à limiter la perte de biodiversité restent rares. Mesurer cette différence n’est pas si évident qu’il y paraît puisque cela nécessite de comparer la biodiversité de sites protégés et de sites témoins non-protégés (qui ne diffèrent que par leur statut de protection) et requiert donc l’utilisation de gros jeux de données, qui sont rares. Dans cette thèse, j’utilise plusieurs jeux de données publics, principalement issus de programmes de sciences participatives, pour mesurer l’efficacité des aires protégées. Dans le premier chapitre, j’utilise des données d’abondance d’oiseaux issues de la « North American Breeding Bird Survey » et je montre que les aires protégées n’ont pas d’effet sur la richesse spécifique ou l’abondance totale mais qu’elles favorisent les espèces spécialistes. Dans le second chapitre, je me concentre sur les forêts tropicales de huit points chauds de biodiversité et j’utilise les données eBird pour montrer que les aires protégées ralentissent les déclins d’espèces d’oiseaux dépendantes des forêts, endémiques et menacées. De plus, je montre que cet effet sur les oiseaux est induit par le double effet qu’ont les aires protégées sur la réduction de la déforestation et de la dégradation de la forêt. Dans le troisième chapitre, je modélise la sensibilité à la pression humaine de chaque espèce d’oiseaux se reproduisant en Amérique et j’explore la capacité du réseau d’aires protégées à conserver les espèces les plus sensibles. Je montre que les zones où les espèces sont très sensibles (principalement dans les tropiques) sont souvent trop peu couvertes par des aires protégées intactes, laissant de nombreuses espèces sensibles sans aucun habitat protégé intact sur l’ensemble de leur aire de répartition. Enfin, dans le quatrième chapitre, j’interroge l’effet que peuvent avoir les aires protégées sur les comportements humains, en montrant que les habitants de municipalités françaises qui sont proches de parcs naturels adoptent plus de comportements pro-environnementaux. Dans leur ensemble, ces travaux de thèse soutiennent que les aires protégées peuvent constituer un outil efficace pour conserver la biodiversité et soulignent l’importance et la complexité de mesurer leur efficacité.
... In this study, Fuzzy set classification methods were employed to project the response of ranges of 114 birds to climate warming in the light of assuming that certain equilibrium emerged for the relationship between the distributions of the birds and the climate variables. Birds are strongly regulated by climate variables as their particular habitat requirements and life-history traits (Jiménez-Valverde et al. 2011;Virkkala et al. 2014;Auer and King 2014;). The current distribution patterns of 114 endemic birds in China resulted from the combined effects of the uplifting of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and glacialinterglacial cycles during the Quaternary (Zhang 1999(Zhang , 2010. ...
Quantifying the uncertainty and risk of reducing distribution ranges of the birds in a shifting climate is crucial regarding decision-making on the adaptation of biodiversity to climate warming. By using the representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing climate, fuzzy set classifications, and Monte Carlo techniques, an investigation of the uncertainty and risk of shifting ranges for 114 endemic birds in China from climate change was conducted. In response to non-stochastic changing climate conditions, the abundance of 114 species would increase in some locations of western and northeastern China and would decline in some sites of southeastern, eastern, northern, and central China; approximately 40–60 species would lose less than 20% or 20–40% of their current suitable areas, and about 110 species would exhibit distributions covering more than 80% of their total ranges. For stochastic changing climate scenarios, the number of the birds that lost distinct extents of the suitable ranges decreased with enhancing the likelihood; with a probability of beyond 0.6, the number of the birds that lost less than 20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, and greater than 80% of their present ranges was approximately 13–20, 10–22, 1–8, 1–3, and 5–8, respectively, and the number of the birds that inhabited less than 20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, and over 80% of their all suitable ranges was approximately 7–10, 15–25, 6–11, 1–4, and 26–30, respectively. Approximately 36 species of 114 endemic bird species will be posed extinction risk by climate warming if without any adaptation measures.
... Que la especie ha ampliado su área de distribución a través de episodios de dispersión, producidos por fenómenos meteorológicos (Peinado 2016). O bien, que el incremento de su área de distribución podría ser por las modificaciones de los escenarios climáticos por efecto del cambio climático global (Şekercioğlu et al. 2012, Virkkala et al. 2014, Gillings et al. 2015. No obstante, dadas las características del hábitat donde T. episcopus vive en México, las simplificaciones de la vegetación tienen un gran peso en el incremento del área de distribución de la especie (Rodríguez-Ruíz et al. 2011 Este registro de anidación de T. Episcopus, en Zihuatanejo, evidencia su establecimiento en el estado de Guerrero. ...
La reproducción es un parámetro poblacional útil en el reconocimiento del área de distribución de las especies. Definida el área de distribución stricto sensu como el espacio donde la especie vive e interactúa de forma no efímera con todos los componentes del ecosistema. La tángara azul gris es una especie residente común de la región Neotropical. El área de distribución histórica de la especie en México, con base en registros de la década de 1970, fue en Veracruz. En los últimos 50 años la especie ha experimentado un constante incremento en su área de distribución. Actualmente se le registra en ambas vertientes; de Nuevo León a Yucatán y desde Guerrero hasta Chiapas. Los primeros registros de la tángara azul gris en Guerrero datan del año 2006, presencia que ha sido corroborada, en las planicies costeras del sureste y centro del estado, con registros confiables de los años 2016 y 2018. Sin embargo, se carecía de información sobre aspectos biológico-reproductivos de la especie en Guerrero. En esta comunicación informamos del primer registro de anidación de la tángara azul gris (Thraupis episcopus) en Guerrero, como una evidencia incontrovertible del establecimiento de la especie en el estado.
... Billions of dollars have been invested globally in land protection as a strategy to conserve biodiversity based on the assumption that protected areas buffer species from processes such as land use change, habitat fragmentation, and invasive species that drive extinctions elsewhere (Margules & Pressey 2002, Gaston et al. 2008. Increasingly, protected areas are being envisioned not only as refuges that lower the risk of extinction but also as potential stepping stones for species attempting to shift geographic ranges in response to climate change (Hannah et al. 2007, Virkkala et al. 2014. As a result, increasing the amount of protected land and improving connectivity among existing reserves figures prominently in recommendations for climate change adaptation (Heller & Zavaleta 2009, Mawdsley et al. 2009). ...
Establishing protected areas, where human activities and land cover changes are restricted, is one of the most widely used strategies for biodiversity conservation. This practice is based on the assumption that protected areas buffer species from processes that drive extinction. However, the ability of protected areas to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change and subsequent shifts in distributions has been questioned. Our goal was to evaluate the degree to which protected areas influenced colonization and extinction patterns for 97 avian species over 20 years in the northeastern United States. We fit single‐visit dynamic occupancy models to Breeding Bird Atlas data to quantify drivers of local colonization and extinction in heterogeneous landscapes that varied in the amount of area under protection. Colonization and extinction probabilities improved with increasing amounts of protected area, but these effects were conditional on landscape context and species characteristics. In this forest‐dominated region, benefits of additional land protection were greatest when both forest cover in a grid square and amount of protected area in neighboring grid squares were low. Effects did not vary with species’ migratory habit or conservation status. Increasing amounts of land protection benefitted species at range margins but not core‐range species. The greatest improvements in colonization and extinction rates accrued for forest birds compared to open habitat or generalist species. Overall, protected areas had a greater impact on stemming extinctions than promoting colonizations. Our results indicate that land protection remains a viable conservation strategy despite changing habitat and climate since protected areas both reduce the risk of local extinction and facilitate movement into new areas. Our findings suggest conservation in the face of climate change favors creation of new protected areas over enlarging existing ones as the optimal strategy to reduce extinction and provide stepping‐stones for the greatest number of species.
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... Although still rare, repeated Atlases that provide data for the same locations at multiple points in time are in progress or completed in at least nine US states (U.S. Geological Survey 2014). Repeated Atlases enable dynamic analyses of how species' ranges have shifted over time in response to changing habitat amount and fragmentation (Zuckerberg & Porter 2010;van der Hoek, Renfrew & Manne 2013), climate (Thomas & Lennon 1999;Zuckerberg, Woods & Porter 2009;Virkkala et al. 2014) and interacting biotic and abiotic factors (Melles et al. 2011;Bradshaw et al. 2014). Although repeated Atlases enable broader exploration of changing species' distributions, imperfect species detection during the surveys poses a non-trivial challenge to accurate inference. ...
Atlas data provide biodiversity information at a relatively fine spatial grain over a broad spatial extent and, increasingly, at multiple points in time, which make them invaluable for understanding processes that affect species distributions over time. The effect of survey effort on species detection has long been appreciated and Atlases typically include survey standards and records of effort, but challenges remain in analysing Atlas data that have not been collected using a repeated sampling protocol designed to correct for imperfect detection.
We developed a single‐visit dynamic occupancy model to quantify the effects of climatic and land‐use drivers on local species extinction and colonization while accounting for imperfect detection using repeat Atlas data. We evaluated model stability using data simulated under alternative scenarios and, ultimately, applied the model to empirical data for Canada warbler Cardellina canadensis , a wide‐spread species exhibiting a long‐term population decline.
At sample sizes that are realistic for many Atlases ( n = 1000–10 000 independent survey blocks), our models produced unbiased estimates of detection, occupancy, colonization and extinction parameters. Slope estimates for explanatory covariates were somewhat less stable than overall occupancy, colonization and extinction rates, with covariate effects being sensitive to the total number of, and relationships among, explanatory variables.
In comparison to other analyses of Canada warbler distributions that indicated minor changes over time, our approach identified a widespread decline in occupancy probability across New York, consistent with the broader population trend, particularly in the areas where it was initially more likely to occur.
Synthesis and applications . A single‐visit dynamic occupancy model is a novel method for analysing common, ecologically valuable datasets, such as Atlases, that lack repeated sampling necessary to correct for imperfect detection using alternative multi‐season occupancy modelling approaches. As a result, using this method can improve understanding of species distributions and factors that shape them over time, thereby providing more accurate information to guide conservation and management.
... These assessments often include evaluations of forecasted species range shifts considering contrasting climate change scenarios. In addition, monitoring and early-warning systems often assess historical trends in the distribution of species and habitats, which may help to anticipate range changes and extinction risks (Virkkala et al., 2014). ...
... Also climate change may affect forest bird populations (e.g. Virkkala et al., 2014;Tayleur et al., 2015Tayleur et al., , 2016. Following a general increase up to 2002, summer temperatures in Sweden subsequently levelled out at a relatively high level. ...
Changes in forestry practices and on-going climate change may both have large impacts on forest bird populations. However, large-scale analyses of the effects of temporal changes in forest structure on forest bird numbers are largely lacking. We compared temporal trends from two Swedish nationwide long-term monitoring schemes, the Swedish Bird Survey (1998–2015) and the Swedish National Forestry Inventory (1983–2014), giving representative values for both forest and bird changes over an area of 35 million ha. Since 1998 the total area of middle-aged and mature forest increased by 6.4%. In parallel, several forest structures potentially beneficial to birds (dead wood, retention trees on clear cuts, multi-layer forests, old forest and broadleaved forest) increased somewhat in abundance, most likely as a result of legislation changes and increasing areas under forest certification schemes. Summer temperatures also increased, with warm summers dominating since 2002. In 1998–2015, the population sizes of 58 forest bird species on average increased, as did the number of species observed per route, with no general difference between forest specialists (16 species) and generalists (42 species). However, from around 2005, the positive trends in bird numbers and many forest structures have levelled out. An analysis of species population trends in relation to a measure of climate sensitivity (Species Temperature Index, STI) suggested that forest birds, just like Swedish birds in general, have indeed been affected by a warming climate. But given their STI, forest birds on average had more positive trends than non-forest birds, suggesting that other factors than climate have affected them positively. Strong candidate factors are the documented changes in forest quality and quantity. Whereas our data and analyses are correlational, and no firm conclusions on causality therefore can be drawn, it is reasonable to assume that the recent increases in forest quantity, forest quality, and summer temperatures, all have contributed to the general increase in forest bird numbers in Sweden. But the relative contribution of these driving forces remains to be determined. When it comes to the potentially positive effects of improving forest quality in terms of increases in old forest, stratification, retention trees and dead wood, it is noteworthy that many of the positive trends in forest structures since the mid-1990s seem to have ceased recently.
... Making reliable predictions about species' responses to climate change has been challenging because responses have not been uniform; empirical studies using historical datasets have revealed high among-species variation in the degree to which populations and species distributions respond over time (Tingley et al., 2012;Guti errez Ill an et al., 2014). Although some species demonstrate range shifting in response to climate change (Tingley & Beissinger, 2009;Virkkala et al., 2014), many species have not extended their ranges to occupy the geographic extent of apparently 'suitable' climates, either historically (Ara ujo & Pearson, 2005;Moritz & Agudo, 2013) or during recent rapid climate change (Thuiller et al., 2004b). Although some of this variation in species responses is associated with life-history traits (Sheldon et al., 2011), much variation remains unexplained. ...
Aim
Climate changes are anticipated to have pervasive negative effects on biodiversity and are expected to necessitate widespread range shifts or contractions. Such projections are based upon the assumptions that (1) species respond primarily to broad‐scale climatic regimes, or (2) that variation in climate at fine spatial scales is less relevant at coarse spatial scales. However, in montane forest landscapes, high degrees of microclimate variability could influence occupancy dynamics and distributions of forest species. Using high‐resolution bird survey and under‐canopy air temperature data, we tested the hypothesis that the high vagility of most forest bird species combined with the heterogeneous thermal regime of mountain landscapes would enable them to adjust initial settlement decisions to track their thermal niches.
Location
Western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA .
Methods
We used dynamic occupancy models to test the degree to which microclimate affects the distribution patterns of forest birds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. In all models we statistically accounted for vegetation structure, vegetation composition and potential biases due to imperfect detection of birds. We generated spatial predictions of forest bird distributions in relation to microclimate and vegetation structure.
Results
Fine‐scale temperature metrics were strong predictors of bird distributions; effects of temperature on within‐season occupancy dynamics were as large or larger (1–1.7 times) than vegetation effects. Most species (86.7%) exhibited apparent within‐season occupancy dynamics. However, species were almost as likely to be warm associated (i.e., apparent settlement at warmer sites and/or vacancy at cooler sites; 53.3% of species) as cool associated (i.e., apparent settlement at cooler sites and/or vacancy at warmer sites; 46.7% of species), suggesting that microclimate preferences are species specific.
Main conclusions
High‐resolution temperature data increase the quality of predictions about avian distribution dynamics and should be included in efforts to project future distributions. We hypothesize that microclimate‐associated distribution patterns may reflect species' potential for behavioural buffering from climate change in montane forest environments.
... Climate change will further contribute to declines of grassland birds (Kleijn et al. 2010). In more northerly latitudes, significant contractions of ranges or range shifts have been reported for populations of northern-boreal birds, including many species of grassland and open lands (Virkkala et al. 2014). Chamberlain et al. (2013) suggested that species of open habitats will face severe declines in distributions as grasslands are lost at the expense of advancing forest and shrubland habitats, while forest birds are likely to undergo range expansions. ...
Context
Climate change is not occurring over a homogeneous landscape and the quantity and quality of available land cover will likely affect the way species respond to climate change. The influence of land cover on species’ responses to climate change, however, is likely to differ depending on habitat type and composition.
Objectives
Our goal was to investigate responses of forest and grassland breeding birds to over 20 years of climate change across varying gradients of forest and grassland habitat. Specifically, we investigated whether (i) increasing amounts of available land cover modify responses of forest and grassland-dependent birds to changing climate and (ii) the effect of increasing land cover amount differs for forest and grassland birds.
Methods
We used Bayesian spatially-varying intercept models to evaluate species- and community-level responses of 30 forest and 10 grassland birds to climate change across varying amounts of their associated land cover types.
Results
Responses of forest birds to climate change were weak and constant across a gradient of forest cover. Conversely, grassland birds responded strongly to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, increasing temperatures led to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, and this effect was intensified in regions with low amounts of grassland cover.
Conclusions
Within the context of northeastern forests and grasslands, we conclude that forests serve as a possible buffer to the impacts of climate change on birds. Conversely, species occupying open, fragmented grassland areas might be particularly at risk of a changing climate due to the diminished buffering capacity of these ecosystems.
... This is a major concern for northern peatlands, where warmer, drier conditions under climate change could reduce ecosystem suitability for species associated with cool, wet conditions 4,5 . Latitudinal and elevational retreats of northern and montane species have been attributed to rising temperatures 6,7 , but distribution changes may also be driven by altered moisture regimes 8,9 , which are influenced by temperature, precipitation, soil properties, vegetation and the topography of the land 10 . However, a lack of high-resolution, landscape-scale moisture data can make moisture-driven changes harder to study. ...
Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardising the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–80 We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature, topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration, desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.
... Although bird diversity and distribution are well studied in Europe [23][24][25][26] and America [27,28], there are very few similar studies for Asia in general [29] or the Himalayan region [30][31][32][33][34] and in particular Nepal [35][36][37][38][39]. Exploring the determinants of diversity in the Himalayas is important as in that region is the greatest variation in altitude anywhere in the world (i.e., 60 m to 8848 m) [9]. In a recent checklist for Nepal, a total of 871 species of birds are recorded including nine that are legally protected by the government of Nepal, 37 species that are globally threatened and 149 species that are nationally threatened [40]. ...
Understanding factors determining the distribution of species is a key requirement for protecting diversity in a specific area. The aim of this study was to explore the factors affecting diversity and distribution of species of birds on different forested hills in central Nepal. The area is rich in species of birds. Because the area is characterized by steep gradients, we were also interested in the importance of altitude in determining the diversity and species composition of the bird communities. We assessed bird diversity and species composition based on point observations along a gradient of increasing altitude in two valleys (Kathmandu and Palung) in central Nepal. Data on environmental variables were also collected in order to identify the main determinants of bird diversity and species composition of the bird communities. We recorded 6522 individual birds belonging to 146 species, 77 genera and 23 families. Resident birds made up 80 % (117 species) of the total dataset. The study supported the original expectation that altitude is a major determinant of species richness and composition of bird communities in the area. More diverse bird communities were found also in areas with steeper slopes. This together with the positive effect of greater heterogeneity suggests that forests on steep slopes intermixed with patches of open habitats on shallow soil at large spatial scales are more important for diverse bird communities than more disturbed habitats on shallow slopes. In addition, we demonstrated that while different habitat characteristics such as presence of forests edges and shrubs play an important role in driving species composition, but they do not affect species richness. This indicates that while habitat conditions are important determinants of the distribution of specific species, the number of niches is determined by large scale characteristics, such as landscape level habitat heterogeneity and altitude.
... These are primarily based on bioclimatic models which relate species' distributions to a climatic niche, and project future changes in species' range extent in response to projected climate change (Bellard et al. 2012). Previous studies have shown good correlations between observed trends or range shifts and those predicted by bioclimatic models (Araújo et al. 2005, Gregory et al. 2009, Jiguet et al. 2013, Virkkala et al. 2014a, 2014b. However, our results show that the relationship between climate and distribution may be more spatially heterogeneous than predicted by such models. ...
Capsule Abundance monitoring data suggest that the short-term response of breeding birds to recent warming in Great Britain has been range expansion, caused by poleward shifts of leading range margins and no significant shifts of trailing range margins.
Aims To quantify latitudinal and elevational shifts of breeding bird populations in Great Britain and test for differential shifts in range margins during a period of warming (1994–2009).
Methods We modelled the population density of 80 species as a smooth function of latitude, longitude, elevation and year. Reference points on the distribution curve were used to describe latitudinal and elevational shifts.
Results Across species, poleward shifts in the leading range margin were greater than in the range-centre. The trailing range margin was largely static, providing evidence for significant range expansion. The magnitude of latitudinal range shift lagged behind the equivalent shift in temperature, suggesting that species may be accumulating a climatic debt. There was no evidence for consistent elevational shifts.
Conclusion Contrary to the generally expected long-term consequences of climate change of range contraction, we show that the short-term response to recent warming has been range expansion. This suggests the mechanisms of short-term and long-term consequences of climate change may differ.
... This is a major concern for northern peatlands, where warmer, drier conditions under climate change could reduce ecosystem suitability for species associated with cool, wet conditions 4,5 . Latitudinal and elevational retreats of northern and montane species have been attributed to rising temperatures 6,7 , but distribution changes may also be driven by altered moisture regimes 8,9 , which are influenced by temperature, precipitation, soil properties, vegetation and the topography of the land 10 . However, a lack of high-resolution, landscape-scale moisture data can make moisture-driven changes harder to study. ...
Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.
... A pesar de ello, encontramos pertinente mencionar algunos factores potenciales que pudieron haber contribuido a facilitar la presencia inusual de estos individuos en la región, con el propósito de invitar a los interesados en su evaluación. Así, consideramos relevante destacar: (a) la capacidad de ambas especies de dispersarse; (b) la reducción de la superficie y calidad ecológica de sus hábitats invernales producto de las modificaciones antropogénicas; (c) el severo invierno en Norteamérica de finales de 2013 y principios de 2014, y (d) la posible presión inducida por fenómenos de cambio climático global (Maggini et al. 2011, Sekercioglu et al. 2012, Prince et al. 2013, bbc 2014, The New York Times 2014, Virkkala et al. 2014. ...
The Federal District (DF) is the smallest state-level entity in Mexico. Within it, high levels of urban development and a complex array of natural ecosystems intermingle. Vegetated areas in and around the metropolitan area of Mexico City provide important refuges for wildlife. In this study we report two bird species that had not been previously recorded within the DF: the Philadelphia Vireo (Vireo philadelphicus) and the White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys). Both species are winter migrants to Mexico and are well-known for their high-dispersal abilities. Although we cannot link any definitive causes, some factors that might have contributed to the unusual presence of the recorded species in the region are the reduction of their wintering grounds, the harsh winter of 2013-2014 in the USA and Canada, and possible pressures associated with global climate change. We believe that the growing community of birdwatchers and the increase in the number of eBird users in Mexico will enhance our knowledge of the birds of the region.
Statut of Garganey in Europe, in particular during its migration
Status of the Pintail in Europe
Range boundaries are long‐term biogeographic features of species distributions and abundance. However, many species demonstrate dynamic range boundaries, reflecting strong seasonal and annual variability in migratory behaviour.
As a form of facultative migration, irruptions involve the movement of many individuals outside of their resident range in response to climate variability, resource availability, and demographic processes. Many species have experienced range shifts and altered phenology in response to modern climate change, but spatiotemporal changes in irruption dynamics are less well known.
We quantified changes in the geography and periodicity of boreal bird irruptions across eastern North America from 1960 to 2021. Using data from Audubon's Christmas Bird Count for nine finch species, including several exhibiting recent population declines, we evaluated latitudinal trends in southern range and irruption boundaries and characterized irruption periodicity using spectral wavelet analysis.
Six boreal birds exhibited significant northward shifts in their southern range boundaries and three species displayed shifts in their southern irruption boundaries.
Irruption periodicity across multiple species was consistent across the 1960s and 1970s, culminating in frequent and synchronized irruptions of multiple species (superflights) during earlier decades. Coherence between species dampened beginning in the early 1980s as superflight periodicity became increasingly unstructured, finally reforming in recent decades, after 2000.
Boreal birds are considered important sentinels of the boreal forests, and northward shifts and altered periodicity of irruptions may indicate broad‐scale changes in climate‐ and resource‐associated drivers operating across the boreal forests.
Suomi on toistaiseksi selvinnyt koronaviruksen (COVID-19) aiheuttamasta kriisistä taloudellisesti verrokkimaita paremmin, mutta työllisyystilanne on silti heikentynyt ympäri maata ja talouden ennustetaan supistuvan noin 4,7 prosenttia vuonna 20201. Negatiivisten talousvaikutusten minimoimiseksi hallitus on suuntaamassa EU:n elpymisvälineestä varoja käytettäväksi toimiin, jotka samanaikaisesti auttavat ratkaisemaan aikamme kahta merkittävää kriisiä: ilmastonmuutosta ja luontokatoa. Kyse on aidosti vakavista kriiseistä. Esimerkiksi Maailman talousfoorumi on listannut luonnon ekosysteemien romahduksen ja ilmastonmuutoksen torjunnan epäonnistumisen sekä vaikutuksiltaan että todennäköisyydeltään viiden vakavimman ihmiskuntaa uhkaavan riskin joukkoon. Elämämme on täysin riippuvainen ekosysteemien ja lajien olemassaolosta ja niiden toiminnasta. Suomen Luontopaneeli katsoo, että elvytystoimien pitää kokonaisuudessaan auttaa yhteiskuntaamme selviämään koronan aiheuttamasta talouden supistumisesta niin, että elvytystoimet samalla aikaansaavat siirtymän kohti hiilineutraaliutta ja luonnon kokonaisheikentymättömyyttä. Tässä kannanotossa Luontopaneeli arvioi ympäristöministeriön kestävän elvytyksen työryhmän ja Suomen ilmastopaneelin esittämien sekä muutamien muiden elvytystoimien luontovaikutuksia ja antaa suosituksia elvytystoimien mahdollisten haitallisten luontovaikutusten välttämiseksi. Kuvaan 1 (sivulla 3) on koottu Luontopaneelin näkemys eri toimenpiteiden luonnon monimuotoisuus- ja elvytysvaikutuksista. Lähtökohta ja tavoite on luonnon kokonaisheikentymättömyys (engl. “no net loss of the integrity of ecosystems”). Suomen maaekosysteemien, sisävesien ja meriluonnon tilan heikkeneminen tulee pysäyttää seuraavien vuosikymmenten kuluessa. Osa toimenpiteistä vaikuttaa luonnon monimuotoisuuteen suoraan, esimerkiksi maankäytön kautta, ja osa epäsuorasti ilmastonmuutoksen (ks. tietolaatikko s. 7 ), ilmansaasteiden (s. 10) tai rehevöittävien ravinteiden (s. 11) kautta. Moni taloutta elvyttävä ja hiilineutraaliutta edistävä toimi voi aiheuttaa luontohaittaa. Kyse ei ole vastakkainasettelusta vaan siitä, että aidosti hyvät toimet voivat olla elvyttävyys-, ilmasto- tai luontovaikutuksiltaan ristiriitaisia. Tällaiset toimet tulisi suunnitella niin, että ne ovat yhdenmukaisia luonnon kokonaisheikentymättömyystavoitteen kanssa. Väistämättömät haitat tulee hyvittää luonnolle ekologisilla kompensaatioilla (ks. s. 4). Tämän kannanoton tarkoitus on tunnistaa ristiriitoja ja löytää keinoja lieventää niitä. Jokaisen toimenpiteen vaikutukset on arvioitu ja niiden osalta on esitetty ehdotukset siitä, kuinka mahdollisia haitallisia luontovaikutuksia voidaan pienentää.
There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts—a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats. Compiling a global geo-database of >30,000 range shifts, the authors show that marine species closely track shifting isotherms, whereas terrestrial species lag behind, probably due to wider thermal safety margins and movement constraints imposed by human activities.
This report contains an up-to-date assessment of hydro-meteorological and climatic risks for different sectors in Finland. Hydro-meteorological and climatic risks were assessed as a combination of the hazard (hydro-meteorological phenomenon), exposure (location of the asset or people at risk) and vulnerability (features of the asset or people at risk). Therefore, both the changing climate and the role of socioeconomic factors on the risk formation, now and in the future, were considered. Hydro-meteorological events cause risks in Finland in the current climate. For example, thunderstorms, heat waves and heavy rains cause economic and health impacts, and other losses. In the future, the risks will change as climate change will affect adverse hydro-meteorological events. Climate change will gradually increase the risks, especially for ecosystems and infrastructure. The impacts of climate change elsewhere in the world can indirectly be reflected in Finland through global flows and movements of commodity, energy, finance and humans. The systematic assessments of these risks have been initiated only recently.
The aim of the report is to support risk preparedness and adaptation to climate change at different levels of government and in different sectors. The assessment is based mainly on studies and surveys found in the literature and on expert assessments. The work was carried out in the "Assessment of Weather and Climate Risks" (SIETO) project between 2017-2018.
Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large-scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s-80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s-80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.
Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, causing species to move to new climatically suitable areas, and thus increasing the extinction probability of species inhabiting fragmented landscapes. This highlights the need for climate-wise conservation strategies. With such strategies, a well-connected network of protected areas (PAs) is one of the most important means to support species survival. An extensive and representative PA network can enhance the resilience of regional populations of species, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant proportion of area of habitat being protected. This paper presents analyses of both the observed (1974-2010) and the predicted changes (by 2051-2080) in boreal bird populations in Finland. Firstly, the results show some general patterns of climate change on bird species: (1) species are shifting their ranges towards north, (2) range sizes of many species are declining, and (3) these changes are different in northern and southern species and in species occupying different habitats. Secondly, the paper looks more into the role of protected area (PA) network in securing birds in a changing climate and concludes that at least in Finland, open habitats, such as open mires and mountain heaths, change more rapidly in their species composition in protected areas than for example old-growth forests. However, generally, species decline less within than outside PAs showing that protected areas alleviate climate change effects on bird species of conservation concern. This finding, further supported by results from elsewhere in Europe, provides evidence for the resilience of PA networks in preserving species under climate change. Representative PA network that includes high cover for key habitats is hence needed in all latitudinal zones. The projected efficiency of the PA network in maintaining biodiversity was partly dependent on the strength of climate change varying with respect to future scenarios. This suggests that a flexibly adaptive climate-wise conservation planning is required to be better prepared for preserving biodiversity in the face of uncertain climate change. Thirdly,
the paper discusses several aspects of climate change studies and avian biodiversity
that have been hitherto understudied especially in the northern biomes. The paper
suggests that future studies should concentrate on (1) abundance-based models and
prioritisations, (2) species’ adaptive capacity (ability to avoid the impacts of climate
change through dispersal and/or evolutionary change) and sensitivity (limited potential
to persist in situ under changing climate) to climate change, (3) the role of the
landscape matrix around the PAs and (4) the effects of the biogeophysical features of
the PAs themselves. In conclusion, we envision that improved assessments regarding
the ability of PA networks to maintain biodiversity in northern biomes are needed to
enhance our ability to perform climate-wise conservation planning.
https://peerageofscience.org/conference/eccb2018/107491/
Cambridge Core - Natural Resource Management, Agriculture, Horticulture and forestry - Ecology and Conservation of Forest Birds - edited by Grzegorz Mikusiński
Ecology and Conservation of Forest Birds - edited by Grzegorz Mikusiński March 2018
This chapter discusses challenges and possibilities involved in preserving biological diversity and the diversity of ecosystem services in the boreal zone and yet at the same time maintaining intensive timber extraction in boreal forests. Our focus is on Fennoscandian forests at the landscapes level, and we consider economic, social, and ecological in the sustainability of forest management. We provide an outlook to boreal forest ecosystems and their history and an overview of the forestry practices and policies that aim to ensure multifunctionality of Fennoscandian forests, i.e., diversity of efforts on sustaining biodiversity, timber production, and other ecosystem services from forest landscapes. We review the current scientific understanding management effects on the structure and dynamics of the forest at different spatial, and the consequent repercussions on forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. Evidence suggests that many ecosystem services and biodiversity are in conflict with intensive timber production in boreal forests. We therefore present methods for assessing conflicts among alternative forest uses and for finding solutions for conflicts. We conclude the chapter by providing insights for future management aiming at sustainability from economic, ecological, and social perspectives.
Registramos a la tángara azul gris (Thraupis episcopus) en la planicie costera del sureste del estado de Guerrero, México, en áreas urbanas con cobertura de árboles dispersos de especies nativas e introducidas. El área de distribución actual conocida para el taxón comprende tierras bajas del este de México, desde el centro-sur de Nuevo León hasta la península de Yucatán, incluido el este de Oaxaca y en la vertiente del Pacífico en la planicie costera de Chiapas. Sin embargo, no existen registros previos publicados de la especie en Guerrero. Posiblemente T. episcopus es una especie que ha expandido su área de distribución en episodios de dispersión activa.
Management interest in North American birds has increasingly focused on species that breed in Alaska, USA, and Canada, where habitats are changing rapidly in response to climatic and anthropogenic factors. We used a series of hierarchical models to estimate rates of population change in 2 forested Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) in Alaska based on data from the roadside North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey, which samples off-road areas on public resource lands. We estimated long-term (1993-2015) population trends for 84 bird species from the BBS and short-term (2003-2015) trends for 31 species from both surveys. Among the 84 species with long-term estimates, 11 had positive trends and 17 had negative trends in 1 or both BCRs; negative trends were primarily found among aerial insectivores and wetland-associated species, confirming range-wide negative continental trends for many of these birds. Three species with negative trends in the contiguous United States and southern Canada had positive trends in Alaska, suggesting different population dynamics at the northern edges of their ranges. Regional population trends within Alaska differed for several species, particularly those represented by different subspecies in the 2 BCRs, which are separated by rugged, glaciated mountain ranges. Analysis of the roadside and off-road data in a joint hierarchical model with shared parameters resulted in improved precision of trend estimates and suggested a roadside-related difference in underlying population trends for several species, particularly within the Northwestern Interior Forest BCR. The combined analysis highlights the importance of considering population structure, physiographic barriers, and spatial heterogeneity in habitat change when assessing patterns of population change across a landscape as broad as Alaska. Combined analysis of roadside and off-road survey data in a hierarchical framework may be particularly useful for evaluating patterns of population change in relatively undeveloped regions with sparse roadside BBS coverage.
The quantification of species range shifts is critical for developing effective plans to conserve biodiversity. There are numerous methods and metrics for quantifying species range shifts, but we currently lack a comprehensive review of existing approaches used in species range shift studies. Global. 2013 – 2014. All taxa. We conducted a quantitative literature review to first identify the methods currently used for defining a species' range over a particular time and then to identify metrics used for measuring changes in species ranges over time. We provide a roadmap for the selection of methods and metrics for measuring species ranges and species range shifts by discussing opportunities, assumptions and constraints of the different approaches. Our literature review revealed six main methods for defining species ranges: observational studies, grid-based mapping, convex hull, kriging, species distribution modelling and hybrid methods. These methods are used with three main metric classes to measure species range shifts: changes in range limit, size and the probability of species occurrences or suitability. Most methods for defining species ranges and subsequent range shifts can be applied to different spatial extents and resolutions and taxa. However, only species distribution models (SDMs) and hybrid methods allow for the exploration of the relationship between species occurrence and environmental variables, and only these methods can be used for forecasting species ranges into future environments. Likewise, the inclusion of ecological processes in range shift calculations requires researchers to use hybrid methods or mechanistic models. Our review revealed a high diversity of methods and metrics used to quantify species range shifts. As these methods and metrics underlie many of the conservation strategies proposed for climate change mitigation (e.g., protection of refugia), we urge the conservation community to evaluate underlying approaches for defining species ranges and measuring species range shifts with an equal level of scrutiny as the conservation strategies that these methods and metrics enable.
The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals.
Context
Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning underpins the delivery of all ecosystem services and should be accounted for in all decision-making related to the use of natural resources and areas. However, biodiversity and ecosystem services are often inadequately accounted for in land use management decisions.
Objective
We studied a boreal forest ecosystem by linking citizen-science bird data with detailed information on forest characteristics from airborne laser scanning (ALS). In this paper, we describe this method, and evaluate how similar kinds of biological data sets combined with remote sensing can be used for ecosystem assessments at landscape scale.
Methods
We analysed data for 41 boreal forest bird species and for 14 structural ALS-based forest parameters.
Results
The results support the use of the selected method as a basis for quantifying spatially-explicit biodiversity indicators for ecosystem assessments, while suggestions for improvements are also reported. Finally, we evaluate the capacity of those indicators to describe biodiversity-ecosystem service relationships, for example with carbon trade-offs. The results showed clear distinctions between the different species as measured, for example, by above-ground forest biomass at the observation sites. We also assess how the available data sources can be developed to be compatible with the concept of essential biodiversity variables (EBV), which has been put forward as a solution to cover the most important aspects of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.
Conclusions
We suggest that EBVs should be integrated into environmental monitoring programmes in the future, and citizen science and remote sensing methods need to be an important part of them.
The capacity of peatlands in the northern hemisphere to provide carbon storage, maintain water quality and support northern biodiversity is threatened by a combination of climate change and inappropriate land management. Historical drainage and increasing temperatures threaten the maintenance of the high water tables required for effective peatland functioning, and there is an urgent need to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. Here we use a large-scale replicated experimental design to test the effects of artificial drainage and drain blocking upon soil moisture and cranefly (Diptera: Tipulidae) abundance. Craneflies constitute a key component of peatland biological communities; they are important herbivores and a major prey item for breeding birds. However, they are also susceptible to drought, so are at risk from future climate change. We found that cranefly abundance increased with soil moisture, in a wedge-shaped relationship; high soil moisture is a necessary condition for high cranefly abundance. Blocking drains increased both soil moisture (by 0.06 m3 m−3 in 2009 and 0.23 m3 m−3 in 2010) and cranefly abundance (1.3-fold in 2009, 4.5-fold in 2010), but the strength and significance of the effects varied between years. The benefits of restoring ecosystem moisture levels are likely to be greatest during dry years and at dry sites. This study provides some of the first evidence that adaptation management can potentially reduce some of the negative effects of climate change on vulnerable peatland systems. Management to maintain or increase soil moisture in peatlands can therefore be expected to increase populations of craneflies and their avian predators (which are of conservation and economic interest), but also increase the resilience of the ecosystem to future warming and increasingly frequent droughts, and improve carbon storage and water quality.
Species ranges are expected to move latitudinally poleward because of the warming climate.
We asked whether northward patterns are observable also in population densities of
land birds in Finnish protected areas such that temporal population changes would be most
pronounced toward species range boundaries. We compared population changes of northern
species, southern species, and species distributed over the whole country from 1981–
1999 to 2000–2009 in 96 protected areas. Northern species showed the greatest decrease
in southern Finnish protected areas, and southern birds increased most in northern Finnish
protected areas. Among species distributed over the whole country, there were population
density shifts toward northern Finnish protected areas. Two thirds of the species that
decreased most were northern, whereas many of the species showing the greatest increase
were southern habitat generalists. The results show that there are already northward density
shifts occurring that probably precede future species range shifts.
When many environmental changes take place simultaneously, one of the first challenges for conservation efforts is to identify the species and environments that are in the most need of conservation measures. We studied whether there are differences in the population growth trends of 94 boreal bird species according to their migration strategies, breeding distributions (northern or southern), or breeding habitats. To this end, we examined recent trends in bird census data covering >1000 km along a north–south transect in Finland, from the deciduous forests on the southern coast through the boreal taiga forest to the alpine fell area in the north. Our results show that long-distance migrants (species wintering in western or eastern Africa or Asia), northern species, and species living in agricultural environments are in decline in north-eastern Europe. The results were the same for both the long-term (27 years; 1986–2012) and the short-term (12 years, the most recent reporting period of the EU bird directive; 2001–2012) data set. Additionally, species breeding mainly in urban/sub-urban environments, coniferous forests, or wetlands showed negative growth trends, especially over the short-term. These results provide updated information that can be used to determine the targets of conservation efforts focused on Northern Palaearctic birds. Several different conservation measures may be needed to help these populations, ranging from protecting habitat in the migration and wintering grounds to changing climate and agricultural policies at a national and/or international level. In addition, further research is needed to identify the particular mechanisms underlying the population trends.
Jylhä, K., Tuomenvirta, H. & Ruosteenoja, K. 2004: Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 127–152. On the basis of fifteen global model simulations of future climate, using the SRES emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and aerosols, we have constructed national-scale seasonal and annual climate change scenarios for Finland during the 21st century. In approximate terms, the annual mean temperature is projected to rise by 1–3 °C and the annual mean precipitation by 0%–15% by the 2020s, relative to the baseline period 1961–1990. The corresponding increases by the 2050s are 2–5 °C (temperature) and 0%–30% (precipitation), while by the 2080s they are 2–7 °C and 5%–40%, respectively. The projected temperature trends are markedly stronger than that observed during the 20th century. The ranges in the climate change projections reflect the uncertainties arising from differences in model formulation and in emissions scenarios but are, to some extent, affected by the internal variability of climate as well. Seasonally, the projected precipitation changes and their statistical significance are largest in winter and smallest in summer. On the other hand, the projected rather small summertime warming is at least as statistically significant as the larger warming in the other seasons. Based on a literature review, it seems very likely that changes in mean climate are associated with changes in climate extremes as well.
Estimates of some of the most common wild berry abundances and changes in their yields compared with the previous year were made in 1956–1996 as a part of the annual autumn game inquiries. The berries included in the inquiry were bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.), cowberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea L.), cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus L.), both cranberry species (Vaccinium oxycoccos L. and V. microcarpum (Rupr.) Schmalh.), crowberry (Empetrum nigrum L.), rowan (Sorbus aucuparius L.), and wild strawberry (Fragaria vesca L.). On average, 500 observers throughout the country participated annually in the inquiry. Despite the subjective nature of the berry yield estimates, the results are valid for assessing annual changes in the yields of the most common wild berries as well as in long-term trends. The results are coincident with berry researchers' observations that the yields of cloudberry and wild strawberry have declined during the last decades. The significant (p < 0.01) positive correlations be-tween the yields of the different berry species indicate that meteorological factors influ-ence yields of most berry species in a similar way. Nevertheless, I was not successful in explaining the differences in abundances of bilberry and cloudberry with climate vari-ables. Contrary to expectations, the previous year's yield did not correlate negatively with the next yield, except for rowan.
Climatic warming predicts that species move their entire distribution poleward. Poleward movement of the 'cold' side of the distribution of species is empirically supported, but evidence of poleward movement at the 'warm' distributional side is relatively scarce.
Finland has, as the first country in the world, completed three national atlas surveys of breeding birds, which we here use to calculate the sizes and weighted mean latitudes of the national range of 114 southern and 34 northern bird species during three periods (1974-1979; 1986-1989; 2006-2010), each denoting species presence in approximately 3 800 10×10 km2 squares. We find strong evidence that southern species (breeding predominantly in central Europe) showed a latitudinal shift of 1.1-1.3 km/year poleward during all three pairwise comparisons between these atlases (covering 11, 20.5 and 31.5 years respectively). We find evidence of a latitudinal shift of 0.7-0.8 km/year poleward of northern boreal and Arctic species, but this shift was not found in all study periods and may have been influenced by increased effort put into the more recent surveys. Species showed no significant correlation in changes in range size and weighted mean latitude between the first (11 year) and second (20.5 year) period covered by consecutive atlases, suggesting weak phylogenetic signal and little scope of species characteristics in explaining latitudinal avian range changes.
Extinction-driven avian range changes (at the 'warm' side) of a species' distribution occur at approximately half the rate of colonisation-driven range changes (at the 'cold' side), and its quantification therefore requires long-term monitoring data, possibly explaining why evidence for such changes is currently rare. A clear latitudinal shift in an assemblage of species may still harbour considerable temporal inconsistency in latitudinal movement on the species level. Understanding this inconsistency is important for predictive modelling of species composition in a changing world.
Bioclimatic envelope models use associations between aspects of climate and species' occurrences to estimate the conditions that are suitable to maintain viable populations. Once bioclimatic envelopes are characterized, they can be applied to a variety of questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation. However, some have questioned the usefulness of these models, because they may be based on implausible assumptions or may be contradicted by empirical evidence. We review these areas of contention, and suggest that criticism has often been misplaced, resulting from confusion between what the models actually deliver and what users wish that they would express. Although improvements in data and methods will have some effect, the usefulness of these models is contingent on their appropriate use, and they will improve mainly via better awareness of their conceptual basis, strengths, and limitations.
Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic 'envelope' models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO 2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.
Increasing concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species–climate envelope models to project species extinction risk under climate-change scenarios. However, recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model predictions and there remains a pressing need to validate models and to reduce uncertainties. Model validation is problematic as predictions are made for events that have not yet occurred. Resubstituition and data partitioning of present-day data sets are, therefore, commonly used to test the predictive performance of models. However, these approaches suffer from the problems of spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the calibration and validation sets. Using observed distribution shifts among 116 British breeding-bird species over the past ∼20 years, we are able to provide a first independent validation of four envelope modelling techniques under climate change. Results showed good to fair predictive performance on independent validation, although rules used to assess model performance are difficult to interpret in a decision-planning context. We also showed that measures of performance on nonindependent data provided optimistic estimates of models' predictive ability on independent data. Artificial neural networks and generalized additive models provided generally more accurate predictions of species range shifts than generalized linear models or classification tree analysis. Data for independent model validation and replication of this study are rare and we argue that perfect validation may not in fact be conceptually possible. We also note that usefulness of models is contingent on both the questions being asked and the techniques used. Implementations of species–climate envelope models for testing hypotheses and predicting future events may prove wrong, while being potentially useful if put into appropriate context.
Using eight modelling techniques, bird atlas data of Finland and northern Norway, and data on ‘current’ climate (1971–1990) and projected future climate (2051–80; climate scenarios HadCM3 A2 and B1), we forecasted current and future distributions of 28 land bird species in northern Europe. Specifically, we investigated (i) the impact of inclusion of topographical information on the pure bioclimatic envelope models (‘climate -only’ models), (ii) the accuracy and spatial differences of the predictions from the different models, and (iii) the co-occurrence of hotspots in species numbers and proportion of protected areas, both currently and in the future. Modelling accuracy was measured as the cross-validation area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic plot. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized boosting method (GBM) gave parallel projections with high predictive accuracy for the species distributions and their hotspots, but random forests (RF) and artificial neural networks (ANN) also showed good model performance. Inclusion of topographical variables showed an overall tendency to increase the accuracy of the climate-only models, and this increase was statistically significant in GAM, GLM (generalized linear models) and RF. According to both climate-only and climate-topography models, coincidence of grid cells harboring species hotspots and larger protected areas appears to decline by 2051–80. This calls for further evaluation of the adequacy of the reserve network in northern latitudes, where species are probably particularly susceptible to the effects of climate changes.
The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate.
Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median
rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. These rates are approximately
two and three times faster than previously reported. The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest
levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. However, individual
species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal
species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual
species.
Human land-use effects on species populations are minimized in protected areas and population changes can thus be more directly linked with changes in climate. In this study, bird population changes in 96 protected areas in Finland were compared using quantitative bird census data, between two time slices, 1981-1999 and 2000-2009, with the mean time span being 14 years. Bird species were categorized by distribution pattern and migratory strategy. Our results showed that northern bird species had declined by 21 per cent and southern species increased by 29 per cent in boreal protected areas during the study period, alongside a clear rise (0.7-0.8 °C) in mean temperatures. Distribution pattern was the main factor, with migratory strategy interacting in explaining population changes in boreal birds. Migration strategy interacted with distribution pattern so that, among northern birds, densities of both migratory and resident species declined, whereas among southern birds they both increased. The observed decline of northern species and increase in southern species are in line with the predictions of range shifts of these species groups under a warming climate, and suggest that the population dynamics of birds are already changing in natural boreal habitats in association with changing climate.
Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways
on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using
a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as
comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over
the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there
are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.
Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20(th) and late 21(st) centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.
Twenty-five-year population trends of 42 bird species rare as breeders in the UK were examined in relation to changes in climatic suitability simulated using climatic envelope models. The effects of a series of potential 'nuisance' variables were also assessed. A statistically significant positive correlation was found across species between population trend and climate suitability trend. The demonstration that climate envelope models are able to retrodict species' population trends provides a valuable validation of their use in studies of the potential impacts of future climatic changes.
Over the past few decades, land-use and climate change have led to substantial range contractions and species extinctions. Even more dramatic changes to global land cover are projected for this century. We used the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios to evaluate the exposure of all 8,750 land bird species to projected land-cover changes due to climate and land-use change. For this first baseline assessment, we assumed stationary geographic ranges that may overestimate actual losses in geographic range. Even under environmentally benign scenarios, at least 400 species are projected to suffer >50% range reductions by the year 2050 (over 900 by the year 2100). Although expected climate change effects at high latitudes are significant, species most at risk are predominantly narrow-ranged and endemic to the tropics, where projected range contractions are driven by anthropogenic land conversions. Most of these species are currently not recognized as imperiled. The causes, magnitude and geographic patterns of potential range loss vary across socioeconomic scenarios, but all scenarios (even the most environmentally benign ones) result in large declines of many species. Whereas climate change will severely affect biodiversity, in the near future, land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss. A vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics, coupled with more ambitious goals to reduce climate change, will be needed to minimize global extinctions.
Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.
For six climate scenarios for 2070-99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258-882 km in a direction between 341 degrees (NNW) and 45 degrees (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72-89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31-53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50x50 km grid square would decrease by 6.8-23.2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.
Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.
AimTo quantify whether species distribution models (SDMs) can reliably forecast species distributions under observed climate change. In particular, to test whether the predictive ability of SDMs depends on species traits or the inclusion of land cover and soil type, and whether distributional changes at expanding range margins can be predicted accurately. LocationFinland Methods
Using 10‐km resolution butterfly atlas data from two periods, 1992–99 (t 1) and 2002–09 (t2), with a significant between‐period temperature increase, we modelled the effects of climatic warming on butterfly distributions with boosted regression trees (BRTs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). We evaluated model performance by using the split‐sample approach with data from t 1 (‘non‐independent validation’), and then compared model projections based on data from t 1 with species' observed distributions in t 2 (‘independent validation’). We compared climate‐only SDMs to SDMs including land cover, soil type, or both. Finally, we related model performance to species traits and compared observed and predicted distributional shifts at northern range margins. ResultsSDMs showed fair to good model fits when modelling butterfly distributions under climate change. Model performance was lower with independent compared with non‐independent validation and improved when land cover and soil type variables were included, compared with climate‐only models. SDMs performed less well for highly mobile species and for species with long flight seasons and large ranges. When forecasting changes at northern range margins, correlations between observed and predicted range shifts were predominantly low. Main conclusionsSDMs accurately describe current distributions of most species, yet their performance varies with species traits and the inclusion of land cover and soil type variables. Moreover, their ability to predict range shifts under climate change is limited, especially at the expanding edge. More tests with independent validations are needed to fully understand the predictive potential of SDMs across taxa and biomes.
Global climate warming is predicted to lead to global and regional changes in the distribution of organisms. One influential approach to test this prediction using temporally repeated mapping surveys of organisms was suggested in a seminal paper by Thomas & Lennon (1999, Nature). The Thomas & Lennon approach corrects observed changes in the range margin for changes in the range size, and thus potentially controls for other broad-scale environmental changes between surveys, however the approach does not necessarily account for potential biases in sampling effort. To verify whether the issue of variation in sampling effort affects empirical estimates of shifts in range margin, we reanalyzed all three published studies exploring range margin changes of breeding birds in Great Britain (GB), Finland, and New York State (NY). Accounting for changes in survey effort on range margins lowered the estimated shift for breeding birds in New York, but the shift remained statistically significant. For Great Britain and Finland, for which no direct estimate of survey effort is available, we used species richness (a strong correlate of survey effort in New York) as a proxy and found that in both cases the estimated shift in range margin was significantly reduced and became nonsignificant. To understand how robust the approach is to sampling biases, we use a simulation model to show that the Thomas & Lennon approach is, under certain conditions, sensitive to changes in detection probability (probability to detect true occupancy) which in turn may be affected by changes in surveying effort between surveys. We thus found evidence that temporal changes in the distribution of breeding birds based on repeated mapping surveys may be inflated by changes in survey effort along range boundaries. We discuss possible approaches to deal with this issue in the analysis and design of national or regional surveys.
Summary 1. Voles in northern Europe have been shown to exhibit cyclic population dynamics, with a latitudinal gradient in cycle length, amplitude and interspecific synchrony. 2. Previous studies have been based on a relatively sparse network of sampling sites. In the absence of spatially comprehensive long-term records of vole dynamics, we analysed a proxy of vole density, bird-ringing data on vole-eating avian predators, Tengmalm's owl ( Aegolius funereus L.), the Ural owl ( Strix uralensis Pall.), the long-eared owl ( Asio otus L.) and the rough-legged buzzard ( Buteo lagopus Pontoppidan) to study spatial population dynamics of voles. 3. We demonstrate that the breeding success of the avian predators is highly dependent on the abundance of voles, which is also reflected in the numbers of nestlings ringed in a particular area in each year. 4. Our results show the expected increase in cycle length from south to north in Finland, but also from west to east, and in contrast to previous studies, increasing irregularity of the cyclic dynamics towards the north. 5. Fluctuations of vole populations have been synchronous over large distances, up to several hundred kilometres. Such large-scale synchrony is more likely to be caused by movements of vole-eating predators and/or by climatic perturbations than by dispersal of voles. 6. We could not conclusively verify the recent suggestion that vole population dynamics have become less regular across Finland, although certain long-term changes are apparent.
Aim The role of biotic interactions in influencing species distributions at macro-scales remains poorly understood. Here we test whether predictions of distributions for four boreal owl species at two macro-scales (10 × 10 km and 40 × 40 km grid resolutions) are improved by incorporating interactions with woodpeckers into climate envelope models.
Location Finland, northern Europe.
Methods Distribution data for four owl and six woodpecker species, along with data for six land cover and three climatic variables, were collated from 2861 10 × 10 km grid cells. Generalized additive models were calibrated using a 50% random sample of the species data from western Finland, and by repeating this procedure 20 times for each of the four owl species. Models were fitted using three sets of explanatory variables: (1) climate only; (2) climate and land cover; and (3) climate, land cover and two woodpecker interaction variables. Models were evaluated using three approaches: (1) examination of explained deviance; (2) four-fold cross-validation using the model calibration data; and (3) comparison of predicted and observed values for independent grid cells in eastern Finland. The model accuracy for approaches (2) and (3) was measured using the area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot.
Results At 10-km resolution, inclusion of the distribution of woodpeckers as a predictor variable significantly improved the explanatory power, cross-validation statistics and the predictive accuracy of the models. Inclusion of land cover led to similar improvements at 10-km resolution, although these improvements were less apparent at 40-km resolution for both land cover and biotic interactions.
Main conclusions Predictions of species distributions at macro-scales may be significantly improved by incorporating biotic interactions and land cover variables into models. Our results are important for models used to predict the impacts of climate change, and emphasize the need for comprehensive evaluation of the reliability of species–climate impact models.
Climate envelope models (CEMs) have been used to predict the distribution of species under current, past, and future climatic conditions by inferring a species' environmental requirements from localities where it is currently known to occur. CEMs can be evaluated for their ability to predict current species distributions but it is unclear whether models that are successful in predicting current distributions are equally successful in predicting distributions under different climates (i.e. different regions or time periods). We evaluated the ability of CEMs to predict species distributions under different climates by comparing their predictions with those obtained with a mechanistic model (MM). In an MM the distribution of a species is modeled based on knowledge of a species' physiology. The potential distributions of 100 plant species were modeled with an MM for current conditions, a past climate reconstruction (21 000 years before present) and a future climate projection (double preindustrial CO2 conditions). Point localities extracted from the currently suitable area according to the MM were used to predict current, future, and past distributions with four CEMs covering a broad range of statistical approaches: Bioclim (percentile distributions), Domain (distance metric), GAM (general additive modeling), and Maxent (maximum entropy). Domain performed very poorly, strongly underestimating range sizes for past or future conditions. Maxent and GAM performed as well under current climates as under past and future climates. Bioclim slightly underestimated range sizes but the predicted ranges overlapped more with the ranges predicted with the MM than those predicted with GAM did. Ranges predicted with Maxent overlapped most with those produced with the MMs, but compared with the ranges predicted with GAM they were more variable and sometimes much too large. Our results suggest that some CEMs can indeed be used to predict species distributions under climate change, but individual modeling approaches should be validated for this purpose, and model choice could be made dependent on the purpose of a particular study.
Climate change is projected to be particularly strong in the northern latitudes. Thus, boreal or arctic species are especially susceptible to the effects of climate warming. In this work we forecasted changes in the distributions of 27 northern land bird species in the 21st century, based on predicted rates of climate change. We used climate and bird atlas data of Finland and northern Norway from 1971–1990 to establish bioclimatic envelope models for each species. Next, these models were applied to two climate scenarios (A2 and B1) from the general circulation model HadCM3 to forecast potential future distributions of the study species over a larger area also covering parts of nearby Sweden and Russia. This area stretches through the boreal and continental arctic zone in northern Europe. In the A2 scenario the predicted global change in mean temperature is 3.8 °C by 2100 and in the B1 scenario 2.0 °C. Our results suggest that most of the northern land bird species will lose most of their climatic space by 2080 both in the more severe (A2, average predicted range decline: –83.6%) and in the less severe scenario (B1, average change: –73.6%). A large proportion (over two thirds) of the species considered here is thus susceptible to major range contractions in this geographical region. These climate change-induced threats are of importance because the Arctic Ocean represents a natural barrier for northward movement of species. To reduce the negative effects of climate change on the northern species, relatively large areas of continuous habitats in a connected reserve network should be preserved.
Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.
Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
Evidence is accumulating of shifts in species' distributions during recent climate warming. However, most of this information comes predominantly from studies of a relatively small selection of taxa (i.e., plants, birds and butterflies), which may not be representative of biodiversity as a whole. Using data from less well-studied groups, we show that a wide variety of vertebrate and invertebrate species have moved northwards and uphill in Britain over approximately 25 years, mirroring, and in some cases exceeding, the responses of better-known groups.
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