All explosive volcanic eruptions generate volcanic ash, fragments of rock that are produced
when magma or vent material is explosively disintegrated. Volcanic ash is then convected
upwards within the eruption column and carried downwind, falling out of suspension and
potentially affecting communities across hundreds, or even thousands, of square kilometres.
Ash is the most frequent, and often widespread, volcanic hazard and is produced by all
explosive volcanic eruptions. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to
public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary production
can lead to potentially substantial societal impacts and costs, even at thicknesses of only a few
millimetres. Communities exposed to any magnitude of ash fall commonly report anxiety about
the health impacts of inhaling or ingesting ash (as well as impacts to animals and property
damage), which may lead to temporary socio-economic disruption (e.g. evacuation, school and
business closures, cancellations). The impacts of any ash fall can therefore be experienced
across large areas and can also be long-lived, both because eruptions can last weeks, months or
even years and because ash may be remobilised and re-deposited by wind, traffic or human
activities.
Given the potentially large geographic dispersal of volcanic ash, and the substantial impacts that
even thin (a few mm in thickness) deposits can have for society, this chapter elaborates upon
the ash component of the overviews provided in Chapters 1 and 2. We focus on the hazard and
associated impacts of ash falls; however, the areas affected by volcanic ash are potentially much
larger than those affected by ash falling to the ground, as fine particles can remain aloft for
extended periods of time. For example, large portions of European airspace were closed for up
to five weeks during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, in 2010 because of airborne ash
(with negligible associated ash falls outside of Iceland). The distance and area over which
volcanic ash is dispersed is strongly controlled by wind conditions with distance and altitude
from the vent, but also by the size, shape and density of the ash particles, and the style and
magnitude of the eruption. These factors mean that ash falls are typically deposited in the
direction of prevailing winds during the eruption and thin with distance. Forecasting ash
dispersion and the deposition ‘footprint’ is typically achieved through numerical simulation.
In this chapter, we discuss volcanic ash fall hazard modelling that has been implemented at the
global and local (Neapolitan area, Italy) scales (Section 3.2). These models are probabilistic, i.e.
they account for uncertainty in the input parameters to produce a large number of possible
outcomes. Outputs are in the form of hazard maps and curves that show the probabilities
associated with exceeding key hazard thresholds at given locations. As with any natural hazard,
these results are subject to uncertainty and the local case study describes how ongoing research
is working to better quantify this uncertainty through Bayesian methods and models. Further
to the ash fall hazard assessments, we discuss the key components required to carry these
hazard estimates forward to risk: namely identification of likely impacts and the response
(vulnerability) of key sectors of society to ash fall impact. The varied characteristics of volcanic
ash, e.g. deposit thickness and density, particle size and surface composition, the context, e.g.
timing and duration of ash fall, and resilience of exposed people and assets can all influence the
type and magnitude of impacts that may occur. We draw from data collected during and
following past eruptions and experimental and theoretical studies to highlight likely impacts for
key sectors of society, such as health, infrastructure and the economy (Section 3.3). In many
parts of the world, the failure, disruption or reduced functionality of infrastructure or societal
activities, e.g. ability to work or go to school, is likely to have a larger impact on livelihoods and
the local economy than direct damage to buildings. Broad relationships between ash thickness
(assuming a fixed deposit density) and key levels of damage is also outlined (Section 3.4);
however, vulnerability estimates are typically the weakest part of a risk model and detailed
local studies of exposed assets and their vulnerability should ideally be carried out before a
detailed risk assessment is undertaken.
Greater knowledge of ash fall hazard and associated impacts supports mitigation actions, crisis
planning and emergency management activities, and is an essential step towards building
resilience for individuals and communities. This chapter concludes with a discussion on where
some of the important advances in ash fall hazard and risk assessment may be achieved,
providing a roadmap for future research objectives.