ArticlePDF Available

Predicting Immigrant IQ from their Countries of Origin, and Lynn's National IQs: A Case Study from Denmark

Authors:
  • Ulster Institute for Social Research

Abstract

Many recent studies have corroborated Lynn and Vanhanen's worldwide compilation of national IQs; however, no one has attempted to estimate the mean IQ of an immigration population based on its countries of origin. This paper reports such a study based on the Danish immigrant population and IQ data from the military draft. Based on Lynn and Vanhanen's estimates, the Danish immigrant population was estimated to have an average 89.9 IQ in 2013Q2, and the IQ from the draft was 86.3 in 2003Q3 (against a 'Danish' IQ of 100). However, after taking account of two error sources, the discrepancy between the measured IQ and the estimated IQ was reduced to a mere 0.4 IQ. The study thus strongly validates Lynn and Vanhanen's national IQs.
151
Volume LIV, Number 2, Winter 2013
Predicting Immigrant IQ from their Countries of Origin,
and Lynn's National IQs: A Case Study from Denmark
Emil O.W Kirkegaard*
University of Aarhus, Department of Linguistics, Denmark
Many recent studies have corroborated Lynn and
Vanhanen's worldwide compilation of national IQs; however,
no one has attempted to estimate the mean IQ of an
immigration population based on its countries of origin. This
paper reports such a study based on the Danish immigrant
population and IQ data from the military draft. Based on Lynn
and Vanhanen's estimates, the Danish immigrant population
was estimated to have an average 89.9 IQ in 2013Q2, and the
IQ from the draft was 86.3 in 2003Q3 (against a 'Danish' IQ of
100). However, after taking account of two error sources, the
discrepancy between the measured IQ and the estimated IQ
was reduced to a mere 0.4 IQ. The study thus strongly validates
Lynn and Vanhanen's national IQs.
Key Words: National IQ, Danish IQ; Intelligence; Immigrant IQ;
Ethnic country of origin; Race.
Worldwide Intelligence Comparisons
Richard Lynn's worldwide compilations of “national IQ”
(average IQ of the population, with the British as reference)
has gathered much interest, and divided opinions among
scholars. Despite initial skepticism, the general tendency
among serious scholars is now that it is a useful research
paradigm (Rindermann 2012). Even some of those previously
critical of the idea seem to have come around to accepting it.
Hunt and Sternberg (2006), for example, called it “technically
inadequate... and meaningless” (quoted in Lynn and
Vanhanen 2012, p. 7), but in 2012 Earl Hunt published a
paper building on Lynn and Vanhanen's worldwide IQ data
(Hunt 2012). Although he still does not agree with the
hereditarian explanation that these differences in general
cognitive ability (GCA) are partly due to genetics, he is now
* Correspondence address emil@emilkirkegaard.dk
152 Emil O.W Kirkegaard
Mankind Quarterly
explicitly agnostic:
Future developments in molecular and behavior genetics
may identify these genes, and at that time it will be possible
to make a scientifically justifiable statement about
international differences in the potential for intelligence. As
of 2012, no such statement can be made. This does not mean
that no such differences exist. It means that the extent of a
genetic contribution to international differences in GCA is
unknown at present. (Hunt 2012, pp. 293-4)
Probably the change of opinion is due to the many studies
based on Lynn and Vanhanen's data that validate the
importance of national IQ, reviewed in chapters 3-12 of Lynn
and Vanhanen (2012). Especially salient is the finding that
worldwide scholastic achievement tests are in near perfect
agreement with Lynn and Vanhanen's estimated IQs. The
correlations between the Lynn and Vanhanen IQs and PISA
tests from 2000 and 2003 are an astonishing 0.86 and 0.87!
The correlation is so strong that they can more or less be said
to measure the same thing, and indeed using a sample of
international scholastic tests and Lynn and Vanhanen’s 2006
IQs, Rindermann (2007) found that a common factor
accounts for 94-95% of the variance. Therefore IQ and
scholastic achievement have been proposed as alternative
measures of country-level “intelligence” (Lynn and Vanhanen,
2012; Meisenberg & Lynn, 2011).
The finding that different measurements strongly
converge on a common factor is all the more impressive
because the data come from two different theoretical research
frameworks, one of them psychometric and the other
educational. One is reminded of an analogous finding
decades ago when researchers from the g-factor perspective
and from non-g-factor perspectives both constructed IQ tests,
and both ended up measuring more or less the same thing.
Predicting Immigrant IQ in Denmark and Lynn's National IQs
Volume LIV, Number 2, Winter 2013
153
Indeed even researchers who were initially hostile to g-factor
theory ended up constructing tests that are quite good
measures of g, thus illustrating Spearman's “indifference of
the indicator” (Dalliard 2013, Jensen 1998, p. 32).
Immigration in Denmark
With the above in mind, I wondered whether it was
possibly to predict the average IQ of immigrants in a western
country using Lynn and Vanhanen's national IQs. If the IQs
are reasonably stable, either because differences are largely
heritable or because the environmental effects act very slowly,
it should be possible to predict the average immigrant IQs
based on the immigrants’ country of origin. A recent study
has shown that the school performance of both first
generation immigrants and second generation immigrants are
below Danish standards, thus indicating that the difference is
relatively stable (Winter and Vibeke, 2013).
Other correlates of population intelligence (see Gordon
1997), such as crime rates, also indicate that the effect is
stable because rates of violent crimes have been relatively
stable for immigrants for at least 8 years. This is known
because the Danish statistical bureau publishes a yearly report
on immigrants in Denmark, so one can follow the trend.
There is no downward trend to be seen since at least 2004
(Plovsing 2004, Danmarks Statistik 2012). The crime index for
violent crimes for 2nd generation immigrant males (including
western) is 240 relative to a male population index of 100. If
one looks at non-western 2nd generation immigrants only, the
crime index is 257.
To put things into perspective, the latest numbers
(2013Q2) from Danmarks Statistik indicate that 10.88% of the
population is now composed of immigrants and their children
(“indvandrere” = 1st generation immigrants, “efterkommere”
= later generation immigrants). About 2/3 of the immigrants
are non-western. Immigration, particularly non-western, has
154 Emil O.W Kirkegaard
Mankind Quarterly
been on the rise since 1980. Danmarks Statistik (2012) writes
that the number of 1st generation immigrants (“indvandrere”)
from non-western countries is now almost 6 times as many as
in 1980, and the number of 2nd or later generation immigrants
is now about 15 times as many as in 1980 (see Graph 1).
The above numbers are known to be underestimates due
to the way Danmarks Statistik defines “immigrants”, see Nyborg
(2012) for an attempt to correct these numbers. There is also
the problem of illegal immigrants. I think Nyborg’s estimate
may overpredict the number of immigrants and their
descendants in the future because he does not adjust for the
fact that the fertility of immigrants falls after their arrival in
Denmark. Nyborg bases his estimate on fertility in the home
countries of the immigrants.
However, the number of immigrants and their
descendants in the population is still on the rise. Teasdale and
Owen (2008) have proposed that this might be the cause of
the recent reversal of the Flynn effect reported by the same
authors. Nyborg (2012) has attempted to predict the long-
term size of this influence from a hereditarian perspective.
Since population intelligence is known to be important for
many outcomes, it is desirable to follow ongoing changes, and
even more to predict future changes from a public policy
perspective.
Method
Immigrant composition data
The Danish statistical bureau (Danmarks Statistik)
publishes data on the composition (by country of origin) of
the Danish immigrants (Danmarks Statistik, 2013). Data was
obtained about the number of immigrants from each country
of origin using the latest numbers from 2013Q2.
Graph 1. Numbers of first-generation and later-generation immigrants in Denmark. From
Danmarks Statistik.
156 Emil O.W Kirkegaard
Mankind Quarterly
Data from Lynn and Vanhanen (2012) was used for the
national IQs (Final-IQ was used). A few countries did not have
an IQ in Lynn and Vanhanen's data. I estimated the IQs for
these countries using the same method as Lynn and
Vanhanen, i.e. by averaging neighboring countries. See the
data file for details. For the Soviet Union, the IQ of Russia was
used.
To save time, only countries with >500 immigrants were
included (>400 in the second analysis). Immigrants from
these countries of origin are about 98% of the total
immigrants. Weighted IQs were calculated based on the
number of immigrants from the particular country.
Validation data
Data were sought against which to validate the prediction.
Numbers were found from a 2005 army study of the test used
for the draft. The army investigated whether the draft test was
biased against immigrants. No, or only very slight, bias was
found (Institut for Militærpsykologi, 2005). The method used
to check for bias was not very powerful, but it could rule out
strong bias. It consisted of comparing immigrants and Danes
with the same total score on the four subtests of the test: 1)
Letter matrices, 2) word relations, 3) number sequences, 4)
figures. The most obvious bias to test for is language bias.
However, the analysis indicates that holding immigrant and
Danes' total scores constant, the difference on the verbal
subtests (1-2) were very small and in two different directions,
thus canceling each other out (0.30 and -0.37 in raw scores,
respectively). For more about Danish draft testing, see various
papers by Thomas W. Teasdale (e.g., Teasdale and Owen,
2008).
The reason this method of testing for bias is not very
powerful is that it is possible that different human populations
really do have different ability profiles (Lynn, 2006). Even
Richard Nisbett, who is firmly opposed to the hereditarian
Predicting Immigrant IQ in Denmark and Lynn's National IQs
Volume LIV, Number 2, Winter 2013
157
position on race differences in IQ, apparently agrees with a
hereditarian position about the ability profile of the (mostly
Ashkenazi) Jews in the US:
Before leaving the topic of Jewish IQ, I should note that
there is an anomaly concerning Jewish intelligence. The
major random samples of Americans having large numbers
of Jewish participants show that whereas verbal and
mathematical IQ run 10 to 15 points above the non-Jewish
average, scores on tests requiring spatial-relations ability
(ability to mentally manipulate objects in two- and three-
dimensional space) are about 10 points below the non-Jewish
average (Flynn, 1991a) . This is an absolutely enormous
discrepancy and I know of no ethnic group that comes close
to having this 20 to 25-point difference among Jews. I do not
for a minute doubt that the discrepancy is real. I know half a
dozen Jews who are at the top of their fields who are as likely
to turn in the wrong direction as in the right direction when
leaving a restaurant. The single ethnic difference that I
believe is likely to have a genetic basis is the relative Jewish
incapacity for spatial reasoning. I have no theory about why
this should be the case, but I note that it casts an interesting
light on the Jews' wandering in the desert for forty years!
(Nisbett 2009, footnote 173)
But if immigrants and Danes with the same total score had
raw score differences in the verbal subtests of say 10 points,
this would be a very strong sign of test bias.
The army report did not contain explicit IQ data or
standard deviations for the raw scores, but it did contain
tables of the raw scores from the test (number of persons
getting each total score). I used these tables to calculate
means and standard deviations for three groups: 1) Danes, 2)
immigrants, 3) combined group. I then set the native mean
158 Emil O.W Kirkegaard
Mankind Quarterly
score to IQ = 1002, and calculated the difference from this
mean in effect size units (Cohen's d), using the pooled
standard deviation. Using this, one can calculate the mean of
the immigrant by 100-(effect size*15). Median scores were
also calculated.
There were two problems in using these data to validate
the immigrant IQ estimate.
First, the military data are from 2003Q3, while the
immigrant composition data are from 2013Q2. If the
immigrant composition has changed since 2003Q3, this
introduces error into the estimate. Unfortunately, no
immigrant composition data was available for 2003Q3, but I
redid the analysis with the closest data, from 2003Q1.
Second, the military had used its own definition of
“immigrant” which excluded various western countries
(Switzerland, North America, and countries from the
European economic area), but included as immigrants people
from other western countries like New Zealand and Australia.
The solution for this problem was to exclude the countries
above for both the 2013Q2 and the 2003Q1 estimate. Note
that these are the countries in the European economic area
before the expansion.
Results
The results of the analyses are presented in Table 1. The
calculated IQ from the army study is 86.3.
As can be seen, both methodological adjustments made
2 This is potentially problematic. Lynn and Vanhanen give Denmark a
measured IQ of 98. I looked up his references (Buj, 1981; Vejleskov,
1968), and they do not make it clear whether they included immigrants in
their samples or not. Lynn and Vanhanen also appear to have misreported
one of the obtained IQs. The first study did not report an actual IQ score
but only raw scores, which Lynn and Vanhanen must have converted into
an IQ score using the test manual. The second study reported an IQ of
100.7, but Lynn and Vanhanen report it as 99.
Predicting Immigrant IQ in Denmark and Lynn's National IQs
Volume LIV, Number 2, Winter 2013
159
the estimated IQ come closer to the measured IQ from the
army study. It is possible that it would have come even closer if
there were immigrant composition data from 2003Q3.
Using the medians (raw score 44, and 34) instead of the
means changes things only a little and results in the difference
between the Danish sample and the immigrant sample rising
from 0.91 d to 0.98 d, or in standard IQ numbers: from 13.7 to
14.7 IQ points.
Discussion and Conclusion
It seems entirely possible to estimate average immigrant
IQ based on their countries of origin. This finding fits very
well with the hereditarian position: that the causes of
ethnic/racial group differences in intelligence include
genetics; but it is also compatible with the non-hereditarian
position: that the causes of ethnic/racial group differences in
intelligence do not include genetics. This position is also
called “environmentalist” but it is a misleading name, for it
seems to imply that the hereditarians do not consider
environment to have any influence at all. This is patently false,
as I know of no “hereditarian” scholar who does not believe
that these ethnic/racial differences are caused by differences
in both genes and environment (Snyderman and Rothman,
1988).
Both groups above, in my terms, acknowledge the
existence of such ethnic/group differences, but (attempt to)
explain them differently. It is also possible to deny the
existence of the differences, typically by claiming that the tests
are biased. Such a position would be called a non-realist
position with regards to the differences in intelligence. It is
not rationally possible to hold onto it any more, because the
evidence clearly shows that at least some ethnic/racial
differences in intelligence are not due to biased tests (Jensen
1980, Brown et al 1999).
Table 1: Estimated IQs
Source of estimation
Predicted IQ
Difference from army study (86.3)
2013Q2
89.9
3.6
2013Q2 excluding 'western
countries'
87.4
1.1
2008Q1 excluding 'western
countries'
86.7
0.4
Predicting Immigrant IQ in Denmark and Lynn's National IQs
Volume LIV, Number 2, Winter 2013
161
The Hereditarian Interpretation
A hereditarian would probably see this result as expected
(predicted even) from his premises. Finding that immigrant
scores cannot be predicted at all from countries of origin
would be very hard indeed to explain in that framework. It
therefore increases the (Bayesian) posterior probability that
the hereditarian position is true.
However, depending on how large a role a hereditarian
assigns to environmental effects, he might be surprised to see
that there has been so little improvement despite the
presumably vast improvement in environment as a result of
migration. Perhaps this will lead hereditarians to assign a
smaller role to environment, or accept some of the non-
hereditarian explanations below. It is of course possible that it
is a combination of all the proposed explanations.
This thinking fits nicely with another study that found that
PISA scores of immigrants are more similar to their home
countries than the host country (Carabaña 2011, see also
Levels and Dronkers 2008). Indeed, if this weren't the case,
something would be seriously amiss since the PISA and
measured national IQ correlations are so strong. Some of the
differences between immigrant scores and natives continue to
exist even if one controls for a host of environmental
correlates (see Levels and Dronkers 2008). However, this is
considered an over-adjustment from the perspective of
hereditarians, since intelligence is known to cause these social
environmental correlates, in which case controlling for them
actually is controlling for intelligence to some degree. Chuck
(2011) calls this the sociologist’s first fallacy. The term “the
sociologist’s fallacy also appears in various other writings. It
seems to have originated from Jensen (1973 p. 235).
Lynn and Cheng (in press) studied children in the UK
and found that racial rankings stay much the same even for
those children living in the UK. They appeared even by age 5,
162 Emil O.W Kirkegaard
Mankind Quarterly
making certain non-hereditarian theories implausible. They
did not stay entirely the same, though, which may be due to
some of the reasons mentioned below.
Non-Hereditarian Interpretations
One non-hereditarian interpretation is that the
immigrants did see an improvement in IQ from living in
Denmark due to a better environment, but that this is masked
by biased sampling in the military study. The idea is that the
military oversampled the less smart immigrants and/or
undersampled the smart immigrants.
There is some evidence for this, because the raw score
distribution is a bit skewed to the left as can be seen in Figures
1 and 2. However, skewness is seen in both samples, so it
seems an unlikely explanation for the difference between the
scores of the Danish and the immigrant sample. If there is
sampling bias lowering the scores in the army test, this is the
case for immigrants and Danes alike. This would mean that
the difference in the army study is still a roughly correct
estimate, but also that the distance to the Danish general
population is even greater.
However, the skewness in the raw score frequency
distribution might also be due to how the test is constructed,
as one can change the distribution of the raw score frequency
plot by changing the item composition of the test (Jensen
1980 chapter 4).
Another non-hereditarian interpretation is that the
immigrants really did see an improvement, but the
improvement is not seen at the aggregate level because the
immigrant sample is non-representative due to selective
emigration from their home countries. The idea is that those
who are less smart than the average of their home country are
more likely than others to migrate to Denmark. However,
since the immigrants come from many different countries,
any random selectivity in emigration would cancel each other
Predicting Immigrant IQ in Denmark and Lynn's National IQs
Volume LIV, Number 2, Winter 2013
163
out. Selective migration has to be non-random and be in
effect for most of the more important sending countries.
Perhaps one reason is that many of the migrants are refugees.
I did not find anything in the data to contradict or confirm
this explanation.
Another possibility is that many of the first generation
immigrants suffered harsh environmental conditions before
coming to Denmark, and that this effect persists even after
their environment has improved in Denmark. To test this one
could look at first versus later generation immigrants.
Unfortunately, the military draft data do not distinguish
between these two categories. It is most likely composed
primarily of second generation immigrants due to the early
age at which men are tested (age 18), so such effects should
not be large.
However, there are comparative data from Holland (Jan te
Nijenhuis et al, 2004). They looked at how well first and
second generation non-western immigrants did. Summarizing
their findings, they write:
Summarizing all studies of nationally and locally
representative samples, of complete, specific populations, and
of haphazardly collected samples, using effect sizes corrected
for language bias, per generation the weighted averages
computed on all studies are for the Turks and Moroccans
1.29(1), 1.14(1/2), and 0.83(2), for the Surinamese and
Antilleans 1.06(1), 0.60(1/2), and 0.77(2), for the various
group 1.13(1) and 0.47(2), for the South-East Asians +0.67
higher, for the mixed group 0.29(1) and 0.08(2); and for the
Moluccans 0.40 (2/3). These data again show that group
differences in g are diminishing over time.
In other words, the difference between immigrants and
natives is smaller with second generation immigrants than
with first generation immigrants, thus being evidence that
environment does have an effect, even if it did not completely
remove the discrepancy.
164 Emil O.W Kirkegaard
Mankind Quarterly
Final Comments
The discrepancy that remains between predicted IQ and
the measured IQ in the army sample is so small that it might
just be due to various small errors, such as slight imperfections
in Lynn and Vanhanen's IQs or small sampling bias in the
present study. There is also the problem that the data from
the army are 5 years older than the data from the earliest
composition data.
Still, this study represents a striking validation of Lynn and
Vanhanen's national IQs. Future studies should try to
replicate the results of this Danish study in other countries
with an immigrant population with known countries of origin.
It should also be replicated for Denmark using newer data
from the army, and with results reported separately for 1st
generation and later generation immigrants and for different
countries of origin.
All data and calculations from the study are available here
for independent scrutiny:
http://emilkirkegaard.dk/Den_danske_indvandring_
oprindelse_og_intelligens
Acknowledgement
Thanks to anonymous reviewers whose comments
greatly improved this paper.
References
Brown, Robert T., Cecil R. Reynolds & Jean S. Whitaker
(1999) Bias in mental testing since Bias in Mental Testing. School
Psychology Quarterly 14: 208-238.
Buj, Vinko.
(1981) "Average IQ values in various European countries." Personality
and Individual Differences 2.2 (1981): 168-169.
Carabaña, Julio
(2011) Why do the results of immigrant students depend so much on
their country of origin and so little on their country of
destination? In: Miguel A. Pereyra, Hans-Georg Kotthoff &
Predicting Immigrant IQ in Denmark and Lynn's National IQs
Volume LIV, Number 2, Winter 2013
165
Robert Cowen (eds): Pisa Under Examination: Changing
Knowledge, Changing Tests, and Changing Schools, pp. 207-221.
Rotterdam: Sense Publishers.
Chuck
(2011) The sociologist’s first and second fallacies. In The Occidentalist.
URL =
https://occidentalascent.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/the-
sociologists-first-and-second-fallacies/
Dalliard
(2013) Is psychometric g a myth? Human Varieties (group blog), April
03, 2013. URL = http://humanvarieties.org/2013/04/03/is-
psychometric-g-a-myth/
Danmarks Statistisk
(2012) Indvandrere i Danmark 2012. URL =
http://www.dst.dk/da/Statistik/Publikationer/VisPub.aspx?cid=
16601
Danmarks Statistik.
(2013) To replicate, use the FOLK2 database. Mark both “Indvandrere”
(first generation immigrants) and “Efterkommere” (later
generation immigrants), choose all the countries of origin, and
choose the year+quarter of interest. Data gathered in November
2013. URL = http://www.dst.dk
Gordon, Robert A.
(1997) Everyday life as an intelligence test: effects of intelligence and
intelligence context. Intelligence 24: 203-320.
Hunt, Earl
(2012) What makes nations intelligent? Perspectives on Psychological
Science 7: 284-306.
Hunt, Earl & Sternberg, Robert J.
(2006) Sorry, wrong numbers: an analysis of a study of a correlation
between skin color and IQ. Intelligence 34: 131-139.
Institut for Militærpsykologi (Institute for Military psychology)
(2005) Rapport om undersøgelse af eventuelle barrierer i den skriftlige
sessionsprøve for ”nydanskeres” aftjening af værnepligt. URL=
http://forsvaret.dk/fak/documents/fak/publikationer/rapport
_om_nydanskere_og_session.pdf
Jan te Nijenhuis, Mart-Jan de Jong, Arne Evers and Henk van der Flier.
(2004) Are cognitive differences between immigrant and majority
groups diminishing?. European Journal of Personality 18: 405-434
(2004)
Jensen, Arthur R.
(1973) Educability and Group Differences. London: Methuen.
Jensen, Arthur R.
(1980) Bias in Mental Testing. London: Methuen.
166 Emil O.W Kirkegaard
Mankind Quarterly
Jensen, Arthur R.
(1998) The g factor: The science of mental ability. Westport, CT:
Praeger.
Levels, Mark & Jaap Dronkers
(2008) Educational performance of native and immigrant children
from various countries of origin. Ethnic and Racial Studies 31:
1404-1425.
Lynn, Richard.
(2006) Race differences in intelligence: An evolutionary analysis. Washington
Summit Publishers.
Lynn, Richard & Tatu Vanhanen
(2012) Intelligence: A Unifying Construct for the Social Sciences. London:
Ulster Institute for Social Research.
Lynn, Richard & Helen Cheng
(2013) Recent data for majority and racial minority differences in
intelligence of 5 year olds in the United Kingdom. Intelligence, in
press.
Nisbett, Richard E.
(2009) Intelligence and How to Get It: Why Schools and Cultures Count. New
York: Norton & Co.
Nyborg, Helmuth.
(2012) The decay of Western civilization: Double relaxed Darwinian
selection. Personality and Individual Differences 53.2 (2012): 118-
125.
Plovsing, Jan.
(2004) Tørre tal om indvandrere og kriminalitet. Berlingske, december 12th,
2004.
Rindermann, Heiner
(2007) The g factor of international cognitive ability comparisons: the
homogeneity of results in PISA, TIMSS, PIRLS and IQ tests
across nations. European Journal of Personality 21: 667-706.
Rindermann, Heiner
(2013) The intelligence of nations: a productive research paradigm
comment on Hunt (2012). Perspectives on Psychological Science 8:
190-192.
Snyderman, Mark & Stanley Rothman
(1988) The IQ Controversy, the Media and Public Policy. New Brunswick,
NJ: Transaction Books.
Søren C. Winter & Vibeke
(2013) Lærere, undervisning og elevpræstationer i folkeskolen. URL =
http://www.sfi.dk/rapportoplysninger-
4681.aspx?Action=1&NewsId=3891&PID=9267
Teasdale, Thomas W. & David R. Owen
(2008) Secular declines in cognitive test scores: a reversal of the Flynn
Effect. Intelligence 36: 121-126.
Predicting Immigrant IQ in Denmark and Lynn's National IQs
Volume LIV, Number 2, Winter 2013
167
Vejleskov, Hans.
(1968) "An analysis of raven matrix responses in fifth grade children. I."
Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 9.1 (1968): 177-186
... The first is that immigrants generally retain their average levels of g, and the second is that these also give rise to the usual correlates of g at the group level. Many recent studies have supported both parts of this claim [10,11,12,13,14,2,15,16,17,18], see also [19] for a review. The question is no longer whether they retain their g levels and correlates or not, but to which degree and for how long (intergenerational transferability). ...
... Comparative results are shown in Table 3. Scholars with different opinions regarding the heritability of global group differences will favor different model parameters. In our opinion, the previous results from Kirkegaard (2013 [14]) are most consistent with no gains or weak gains (if there were strong gains, the measured IQ would be far higher than that modeled). Since we consider the scenario of no gains (between group heritability of 100%) implausible 6 , we place our money on something akin to the weak gains scenario. ...
... While the test data are unfortunately not public, a study was published in 2005 that includes some test data from 2003 (N=21,159). One of us previously used this dataset to test whether the mean immigrant IQ was predictable using almost the same model as used in the present study [14]. The dataset is of further use here because it makes it possible to calculate the SD within the 'Western' group and within the 'non-Western' group. ...
Article
Full-text available
We argue that if immigrants have a different mean general intelligence (g) than their host country and if immigrants generally retain their mean level of g, then immigration will increase the standard deviation of g. We further argue that inequality in g is an important cause of social inequality, so increasing it will increase social inequality. We build a demographic model to analyze change in the mean and standard deviation of g over time and apply it to data from Denmark. The simplest model, which assumes no immigrant gains in g, shows that g has fallen due to immigration from 97.1 to 96.4, and that for the same reason standard deviation has increased from 15.04 to 15.40, in the time span 1980 to 2014.
... The purpose of the present study was to test this general model of social inequality. A number of prior studies have been done on immigration outcomes in Denmark (Kirkegaard, 2013(Kirkegaard, , 2015(Kirkegaard, , 2017(Kirkegaard, , 2019a. However, none of these have included a measure of migration selection, thus there was a need to examine the effects of this covariate. ...
... Murray, 2002). We did not have a measure of the average intelligence of the different origin groups, however, prior research shows that there are large cognitive gaps, whether these are measured with tests labeled "intelligence tests" or something else (Kirkegaard, 2013(Kirkegaard, , 2019aRindermann & Thompson, 2016). Furthermore, it is known that there are strong genetic correlations between educational achievement tests, i.e. tests of academic content taught in school, and intelligence tests that don't involve such content (Krapohl et al., 2014). ...
Article
Full-text available
Immigrants to Western countries typically have worse social outcomes than natives, but country of origin immigrant groups differ widely. We studied school performance in Denmark for 116 immigrant groups measured by the grade point average (GPA) of the 9th grade exam at the end of compulsory schooling. General intelligence is a strong causal factor of school outcomes and life outcomes in general for individuals. We accordingly predicted that country of origin average intelligence (national IQ) will predict immigrant group outcomes. We furthermore included as covariates immigrant generation (first vs. second) as well as the Muslim percentage of country of origin. Results show that GPA in Denmark can be predicted by national IQ r = .47 (n = 81), Muslim percentage r = -.40 (n = 81), and educational selectivity of immigrants entering Denmark r = .35 (n = 71). Regression modeling indicated that each predictor is informative when combined. The final model explained 46.3% of the variance with first generation (binary) β = -0.65, βIQ = 0.29, βMuslim = -0.21, and β education selectivity index = 0.27 (all predictors p < .001, n = 97). Our results are in line with existing research on cognitive stratification and immigration.
... We then computed average scores for each name that occurred at least 20 times in the dataset, which amounted to a total of 265 names (226 male) covering data from 65,137 persons. We used IQ norm data from a different study of 22k persons setting the Danish group of names to M = 100, SD = 15 (Institut for Militaerpsykologi, 2013; see Kirkegaard, 2013 for an English language explanation). ...
... Mediation analysis showed that the low social status could be about 30% explained by the observed IQ scores. This study thus confirms the finding of lower cognitive ability among immigrants in Denmark previously reported (Bleses & Jensen, 2016;Kirkegaard, 2013;Rindermann & Thompson, 2016;Robie et al., 2017). ...
Article
Full-text available
It is well established that general intelligence varies in the population and is causal for variation in later life outcomes, in particular for social status and education. We linked IQ-test scores from the Danish draft test (Børge Prien Prøven, BPP) to social status for a list of 265 relatively common names in Denmark (85% male). Intelligence at the level of first name was strongly related to social status, r = .64. Ten names in the dataset were non-western, Muslim names. These names averaged an IQ of 81 (range 76-87) compared with 98 for the western, mostly Danish ones. Nonwestern names were also lower in social status, with a mean SES score of 2.66 standard deviations below that of western names. Mediation analysis showed that 30% of this very large gap can be explained by the IQ gap. Reasons for this relatively low level of mediation are discussed.
... The idea with this is that immigrant populations are at least roughly representative of their origin countries in terms of intelligence, and thus one can approximate the average intelligence levels of immigrant groups by using (the estimate of) their home country average. This method is more dubious when the data include second and later generation immigrants, as these are generally found to have better cognitive scores than first generation immigrants (Rindermann & Thompson, 2016;Robie et al., 2017; but see Kirkegaard, 2013), suggesting environmental causation of between country gaps and biasing the estimates of between group gaps in the host country. In the same way, some studies have used the Muslim % of the home country as a best guess for the prevalence of this religious affiliation among the immigrants and their descendants. ...
Article
Full-text available
We estimated crime rates among 70 origin-based immigrant groups in the Netherlands for the years 2005-2018. Results indicated that crime rates have overall been falling for each group in the period of study, and in the country as a whole, with about a 50% decline since 2005. Immigrant groups varied widely in crime rates, with East Asian countries being lower and Muslim countries, as well as Dutch (ex-)colonial possessions in the Caribbean, being higher than the natives. We found that national IQ and Muslim percentage of population of the origin countries predicted relative differences in crime rates, r’s = .64 and .45, respectively, in line with previous research both in the Netherlands and in other European countries. Furthermore, we carried out a survey of 200 persons living in the Netherlands to measure their preferences for immigrants for each origin country in terms of getting more or fewer persons from each country. Following Carl (2016), we computed a mean opposition metric for each country. This correlated strongly with actual crime rates we found, r’s = .46 and .57, for population weighted and unweighted results, respectively. The main outliers in the regression were the Dutch (ex-)colonial possessions, and if these are excluded, the correlations increase to .68 and .66, respectively. Regressions with plausible confounders (Muslim percentage, geographical fixed effects) showed that crime rates continued to be a useful predictor of opposition to specific countries. The results were interpreted as being in line with a rational voter preference for less crime-prone immigrants.
... A large body of research shows that the traits of immigrant groups can often be predicted from the traits of the inhabitants of their (or their ancestors') country or region of origin. [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11] While doing research for another study I came across a report from 2011, Folkeskolens faglige kvalitet (The Public School's Academic Quality), which on page 13 lists the grade point average (GPA) of children by their mothers' birth country/area. The GPA is from the exams taken at the end of mandatory schooling in the 9th grade and is the average of data from [2007][2008][2009]. ...
... The economic consequences depend on the quality of the migrants and their descendants. Educational, cognitive and economic outcomes of migrants are influenced heavily by prevailing educational, cognitive and economic levels in the country of origin (Carabaña, 2011;Kirkegaard, 2013;Levels & Dronkers, 2008), and by the selectivity of migration. Brain drain from poor to prosperous countries is extensive already, for example among scientists (Franzoni, Scellato & Stephan, 2012;Hunter, Oswald & Charlton, 2009). ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter explores the interdependency between economic growth and cognitive human capital, which is also described as cognitive skills or intelligence and is measured either as performance in scholastic achievement tests or IQ. It shows that unlike the mere amount of schooling, intelligence has been a robust predictor of economic growth in the recent past. Plausible mediators of the intelligence effect include greater labor productivity, better institutions, more competent management, lower fertility, and wider time horizons. Based on the observation of secular gains in intelligence that have become known as Flynn effects, a theory of economic growth is developed that is based on the trans-generational reinforcement between rising intelligence and economic, technological and institutional advances. It provides a parsimonious explanation for the sustained nature of economic growth since the Industrial Revolution, and a conceptual framework for more specific theories and hypotheses. The chapter arrives at projections of economic growth for the first half of the 21st century that are based on the empiric relationship between current prosperity, human capital, and economic growth. Longer-term predictions are based on our knowledge of the conditions that are required for continued Flynn effects, and of genetic limits to human cognitive development. The conclusion is that in most countries of Europe and North America, the limits of cognitive growth are being approached or have been reached already by the younger generation. There are ongoing Flynn effects in developing countries today. These countries are now reducing the cognitive gaps separating them from the developed countries, but most of them are expected to reach their cognitive limits before the end of the 21st century. Long-term developments after the end of the Flynn effect will be driven primarily by demographic trends. Without major changes in demographic behavior, intelligence is predicted to eventually decline slowly, ending economic growth in most parts of the world within the next 3 to 4 generations.
... The demographic variables were not optimal. It would be better if the size of each country of origin could be found for all boroughs because this would allow one to make quantitative predictions for how immigrant% would be related to S and GCSE/cognitive scores (15,24). ...
Article
Full-text available
A dataset of 30 diverse socioeconomic variables was collected covering 32 London boroughs. Factor analysis of the data revealed a general socioeconomic factor. This factor was strongly related to GCSE (General Certificate of Secondary Education) scores (r's .683 to .786) and and had weak to medium sized negative relationships to demographic variables related to immigrants (r's -.295 to -.558). Jensen's method indicated that these relationships were related to the underlying general factor, especially for GCSE (coefficients |.48| to |.69|). In multiple regression, about 60% of the variance in S outcomes could be accounted for using GCSE and one variable related to immigrants.
... The economic consequences depend on the quality of the migrants and their descendants. Educational, cognitive and economic outcomes of migrants are influenced heavily by prevailing educational, cognitive and economic levels in the country of origin (Carabaña, 2011;Kirkegaard, 2013;Levels & Dronkers, 2008), and by the selectivity of migration. Brain drain from poor to prosperous countries is extensive already, for example among scientists (Franzoni, Scellato & Stephan, 2012;Hunter, Oswald & Charlton, 2009). ...
Article
Full-text available
In recent decades, there have been an unprecedented number of regional agreements about the crucial characteristics of the international economic relations. Many countries have begun to explore and participate in the RIA. The rise and development of capital movements and FDI are considered the primary objectives of these agreements. This article focuses on the study of the influence of regional integration, foreign direct investment in several groups over the period 1970-2009. It introduces several variables related to regional integration (trade integration index, index of financial integration and dummy variables) to test their effects on the FDI in these countries. This study examines a panel of 35 countries. The results found show the existence of a strong relationship between the factors of economic integration and the FDI in these countries.
... This increase has occurred throughout western Europe and a number of studies have shown that immigrants from North Africa and south- west Asia typically have an average IQ of around 85 to 90 (Lynn, 2006(Lynn, , 2008Lynn & Vanhanen, 2012;Rindermann & Thompson, 2014; for a large meta-analysis see te Nijenhuis, de Jong, Evers, & van der Flier, 2004). This conclusion has been confirmed by Kirkegaard (2013) who has shown that in Denmark the number of non-European immigrants increased from approximately 50,000 in 1980 to 400,000 in 2012 and the IQ of non-European immigrants in 18-19 year old military conscripts was 86.3, relative to 100 for indig- enous Danes. These immigrants are likely to have had some impact on reducing the average IQ of the populations, but it is doubtful whether the increase in the number of immigrants with lower IQs has been sufficiently great to have had a major effect. ...
Article
The results of the French WAIS III (1999) and the French WAIS IV (2008–9) are compared based on a sample of 79 subjects aged between 30 years and 63 years who took both tests in 2008–2009. It is shown that between 1999 and 2008–9 the French Full Scale IQ declined by 3.8 points.
Article
Full-text available
Demography was heavily involved in the eugenics movement of the early twentieth century but, along with most other social science disciplines, largely rejected eugenic thinking in the decades after the Second World War. Eugenic ideology never entirely deserted academia, however, and in the twenty-first century, it is re-emerging into mainstream academic discussion. This paper aims, first, to provide a reminder of demography’s early links with eugenics and, second, to raise awareness of this academic resurgence of eugenic ideology. The final aim of the paper is to recommend ways to counter this resurgence: these include more active discussion of demography’s eugenic past, especially when training students; greater emphasis on critical approaches in demography; and greater engagement of demographers (and other social scientists) with biologists and geneticists, in order to ensure that research which combines the biological and social sciences is rigorous.
Article
Full-text available
This article briefly describes Lynn’s view on what makes modern populations rise and fall. It then provides a demographic analysis of what happens to modern sub-fertile high-IQ Western populations when Internal Relaxation of Darwinian Selection (IRDS) combines with External Relaxation (ERDS, in the form of super-fertile low-IQ non-Western immigration) into Double Relaxation of Darwinian Selection (DRDS). The genotypic IQ decline will ruin the economic and social infrastructure needed for quality education, welfare, democracy and civilization. DRDS is currently unopposed politically, so existing fertility differentials may eventually lead to Western submission or civil resistance.
Article
Full-text available
It is widely accepted that race differences in intelligence exist, but no consensus has emerged on whether these have any genetic basis. The present book is the first fully comprehensive review that has ever been made of the evidence on race differences in intelligence worldwide. It reviews these for ten races rather than the three major races (Africans, Caucasians, and East Asians) analyzed by Rushton (2000). The races analyzed here are the Europeans, sub-Saharan Africans, Bushmen, South Asians and North Africans, Southeast Asians, Australian Aborigines, Pacific Islanders, East Asians, Arctic Peoples, and Native American Indians. Studies of these are presented in Chapters 3 through 12; Chapter 13 summarizes these studies and gives evidence on the reliability and validity of the IQs of the races. Chapter 14 discusses the extent to which race differences in intelligence are determined by environmental and genetic factors. Chapters 15, 16, and 17 discuss how race differences in intelligence have evolved over the course of approximately the last 100,000 years. These discussions are preceded by accounts of the nature of intelligence and the measurement of race differences given in the first chapter, and of the concept of race in Chapter 2. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Article
Data are presented from the UK Millennium Cohort Study for a sample of 14,860 5 year old British children giving the IQs of whites and racial minorities. Africans, Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis obtained lower IQs than whites, while the IQ of the Chinese was higher. These group differences in IQ were consistent with the differences in educational attainments and earnings.
Article
Modern society is driven by the use of cognitive artifacts: physical instruments or styles of reasoning that amplify our ability to think. The artifacts range from writing systems to computers. In everyday life, a person demonstrates intelligence by showing skill in using these artifacts. Intelligence tests and their surrogates force examinees to exhibit some of these skills but not others. This is why test scores correlate substantially but not perfectly with a variety of measures of socioeconomic success. The same thing is true at the international level. Nations can be evaluated by the extent to which their citizens score well on cognitive tests, including both avowed intelligence tests and a variety of tests of academic achievement. The resulting scores are substantially correlated with various indices of national wealth, health, environmental quality, and schooling and with a vaguer variable, social commitment to innovation. These environmental variables are suggested as causes of the differences in general cognitive skills between national populations. It is conceivable that differences in gene pools also contribute to international and, within nations, group differences in cognitive skills, but at present it is impossible to evaluate the extent of genetic influences. © The Author(s) 2012.
Article
Summarizes the major conclusions from Bias in Mental Testing (BIMT; A. Jensen, 1980) and evaluates writing on test bias published since BIMT. The authors state that empirical research to date consistently finds that standardized cognitive tests are not biased in terms of predictive and construct validity. Furthermore, continued claims of test bias, which appear in academic journals, the popular media, and some psychology textbooks, are not empirically justified. These claims of bias should be met with skepticism and evaluated critically according to established scientific principles. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)