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Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling

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... As electrical power generation accounts for 54.04% of the CO2 emission in Malaysia [1], thus it is vital to explore unconventional pathways to reduce the carbon footprint of the power sector. Related studies to long term decarbonisation of the total energy system or specifically for the power sector has been conducted at regional, national and local level, as demonstrated by C. Jägemann et al (2013) for Europe [2], F. Amorim et al (2014) for Portugal [3], K. Tigas et al (2015) for Greece [4] and C. Yang et al (2015) for California [5]. The main goal of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to decarbonize its power sector by 2050 by simulating the implementation of nuclear or renewable fuel diversification policies in the referenced energy system (RES) as depicted in R. Haiges et al (2017) [6] with the ultimate aim to lower the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. ...
... As electrical power generation accounts for 54.04% of the CO2 emission in Malaysia [1], thus it is vital to explore unconventional pathways to reduce the carbon footprint of the power sector. Related studies to long term decarbonisation of the total energy system or specifically for the power sector has been conducted at regional, national and local level, as demonstrated by C. Jägemann et al (2013) for Europe [2], F. Amorim et al (2014) for Portugal [3], K. Tigas et al (2015) for Greece [4] and C. Yang et al (2015) for California [5]. The main goal of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to decarbonize its power sector by 2050 by simulating the implementation of nuclear or renewable fuel diversification policies in the referenced energy system (RES) as depicted in R. Haiges et al (2017) [6] with the ultimate aim to lower the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. ...
Conference Paper
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The importance of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to achieve a low carbon power sector by 2050 through the implementation of unconventional fuel diversification policies. The Integrated Market Allocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model System (TIMES) was deployed to model the three tested scenarios, namely the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the nuclear (NUC2) scenario in which the 2.00 GW nuclear power is added to the reference energy system, and the renewable plus storage (RNW6S7) scenario that integrated 6 renewable technologies with 7 days of pump hydro storage capacity. An economic assessment on two baseload power plants is included to evaluate the investment viability. The results indicated that the BAU and NUC2 scenario are unsustainable as the dependency on fossil fuel for electrical power generation by 2050 is still high at 71.92% and 66.83% respectively. Contrariwise, the RNW6S7 scenario revealed a low carbon profile for power generation in Malaysia by 2050, whereby the emissions has declined to a minimum level of 11,490 kt which is equivalent to 92.45% of avoided CO2 in contrast to the BAU levels. The low carbon state is attained due to 98.37% of the generation output is renewable electricity. Finally, the RNW6S7 scenario demonstrated that the CO2 emissions in 2030 will drop by 46.22% relative to the 2005 levels which from the power sector perspective surpassed the Paris Agreement targets.
... As electrical power generation accounts for 54.04% of the CO2 emission in Malaysia [1], thus it is vital to explore unconventional pathways to reduce the carbon footprint of the power sector. Related studies to long term decarbonisation of the total energy system or specifically for the power sector has been conducted at regional, national and local level, as demonstrated by C. Jägemann et al (2013) for Europe [2], F. Amorim et al (2014) for Portugal [3], K. Tigas et al (2015) for Greece [4] and C. Yang et al (2015) for California [5]. The main goal of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to decarbonize its power sector by 2050 by simulating the implementation of nuclear or renewable fuel diversification policies in the referenced energy system (RES) as depicted in R. Haiges et al (2017) [6] with the ultimate aim to lower the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. ...
... As electrical power generation accounts for 54.04% of the CO2 emission in Malaysia [1], thus it is vital to explore unconventional pathways to reduce the carbon footprint of the power sector. Related studies to long term decarbonisation of the total energy system or specifically for the power sector has been conducted at regional, national and local level, as demonstrated by C. Jägemann et al (2013) for Europe [2], F. Amorim et al (2014) for Portugal [3], K. Tigas et al (2015) for Greece [4] and C. Yang et al (2015) for California [5]. The main goal of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to decarbonize its power sector by 2050 by simulating the implementation of nuclear or renewable fuel diversification policies in the referenced energy system (RES) as depicted in R. Haiges et al (2017) [6] with the ultimate aim to lower the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. ...
Article
Full-text available
The importance of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to achieve a low carbon power sector by 2050 through the implementation of unconventional fuel diversification policies. The Integrated Market Allocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model System (TIMES) was deployed to model the three tested scenarios, namely the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the nuclear (NUC2) scenario in which the 2.00 GW nuclear power is added to the reference energy system, and the renewable plus storage (RNW6S7) scenario that integrated 6 renewable technologies with 7 days of pump hydro storage capacity. An economic assessment on two baseload power plants is included to evaluate the investment viability. The results indicated that the BAU and NUC2 scenario are unsustainable as the dependency on fossil fuel for electrical power generation by 2050 is still high at 71.92% and 66.83% respectively. Contrariwise, the RNW6S7 scenario revealed a low carbon profile for power generation in Malaysia by 2050, whereby the emissions have declined to a minimum level of 11,490 kt which is equivalent to 92.45% of avoided CO2 in contrast to the BAU levels. The low carbon state is attained due to 98.37% of the generation output is renewable electricity. Finally, the RNW6S7 scenario demonstrated that the CO2 emissions in 2030 will drop by 46.22% relative to the 2005 levels which from the power sector perspective surpassed the Paris Agreement targets.
... However, the high economy [40]. Portugal is considered by some authors, such as Amorim et al. (2014), as a country with high economic opportunities due to its proximity to Spain, which can be beneficial in terms of cost-benefits to achieve the decarbonization of the electricity sector [41]. Like other European countries, Portugal has committed to achieve its carbon neutrality by 2050, with 0% GHGs emissions [42]. ...
... However, the high economy [40]. Portugal is considered by some authors, such as Amorim et al. (2014), as a country with high economic opportunities due to its proximity to Spain, which can be beneficial in terms of cost-benefits to achieve the decarbonization of the electricity sector [41]. Like other European countries, Portugal has committed to achieve its carbon neutrality by 2050, with 0% GHGs emissions [42]. ...
Article
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Energy consumption is associated with economic growth, but it comes with a toll regarding the environment. Renewable energies can be considered substitutes for fossil fuels and may contribute to reducing the environmental degradation that the world is presently facing. With this research, we aimed to offer a broader view of the state-of-the-art in this field, particularly regarding coal and biomass. The main objective is to present a viable and sustainable solution for the coal power plants still in operation, using as a hypothetical example the Pego Power Plant, the last operating coal fueled power plant in Portugal. After the characterization of land use and energy production in Portugal, and more particularly in the Médio Tejo region, where the power plant is located, the availability of biomass was assessed and it was concluded that the volume of biomass needed to keep the Pego power plant working exclusively with biomass is much lower than the yearly growth volume of biomass in the region, which means that this transition would be viable in a sustainable way. This path is aligned with policies to fight climate change, since the use of biomass for energy is characterized by low levels of GHGs emissions when compared to coal. The risk of rural fires would be reduced, and the economic and social impact for this region would be positive.
... améliorations relevées dans le travail de A. Djemaa [99]. Toutes ces fonctionnalités font de TIMES un générateur de modèles dont le périmètre géographique peut varier d'une localité au monde entier [103], [63], [104], [105], [106], [107]- [111]. Il se base sur une représentation technologique détaillée du système énergétique allant de l'import ou de l'extraction de la ressource primaire à la consommation finale par secteur. ...
... Elles sont caractérisées par une efficacité de 80%. Le temps de décharge63 de ces dernières peut varier de quelques heures à des dizaines d'heures. Pour calibrer le facteur de capacité maximal au cours d'une journée et la production minimale annuelle, nous nous appuyons sur les données de l'ENTSO-E et de l'IRENA. ...
Thesis
L’électricité tient indéniablement une place prépondérante dans les sociétés modernes. Elle constitue un des moteurs de la croissance économique et innombrables sont aujourd’hui les usages finaux dépendant des flux d’électrons. Face aux défis du changement climatique, différents objectifs à moyen ou long terme servent à guider l’action politique vers la décarbonisation du mix de production électrique majoritairement fossile. L’évolution du mix européen en particulier est marquée par l’intégration d’une part croissante de moyens renouvelables intermittents. La forte dépendance climatique de ce mode de production, vouée à croître dans le futur, soulève néanmoins des questions sur l’opération du système électrique. Comment la forte interdépendance entre les systèmes interconnectés évoluera-t-elle face à la distribution géographique variable de la production intermittente ? Quels sont les besoins de flexibilité/de coopération associés à cette évolution ? Dans quelle mesure l’incertitude climatique pourrait-elle affecter les objectifs de long terme ? A travers la modélisation prospective des systèmes énergétiques, il est possible d’identifier sur un horizon temporel fini et sous diverses contraintes, une architecture optimale des flux de commodités et des technologies (actuelles et futures) conduisant à une satisfaction de la demande finale à un coût total minimal. Dans le cadre de systèmes interconnectés incluant de la production renouvelable, cette exploration à long terme est rendue plus complexe du fait de la variabilité climatique et des différentes formes d’incertitudes induites. Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre du projet Clim2Power regroupant 12 équipes de recherche à travers toute l’Europe et visant à traduire des données de projections climatiques en données opérationnelles pour les différents acteurs du secteur électrique. Nous y développons un nouveau modèle d’optimisation bottom-up de type MARKAL TIMES du système électrique européen (eTIMES-EU). Il réalise une description détaillée de son infrastructure et de son fonctionnement infra-journalier servant à discuter son évolution à long terme. A travers celui-ci, nous proposons une approche originale pour traiter de l’incidence de la variabilité climatique sur la demande électrique, les ressources solaires, éoliennes et hydrauliques dans des scénarios contrastés portant sur le mix électrique européen à l'horizon 2050. Ces scénarios, formulés autour de différents niveaux d’engagement dans la décarbonisation, intègrent des hypothèses sur les niveaux de demande futurs, la disponibilité des technologies, l’utilisation des interconnexions et les politiques nationales face aux moyens charbon et nucléaire. Nous proposons de plus une approche numérique qui traite de la résolution des problèmes multi-régions. Elle permet, grâce à la relaxation lagrangienne, de traiter des sous problèmes équivalents plus faciles à résoudre et fournissant une heuristique dans la résolution du problème global.
... Technical, economic, social, and environmental parameters are considered for decision-making assistance, even if they are dispersed, due to the complexity of the electricity sector. Optimization tools are used to respond to these requirements, such as EFOM, OREM, GAMS, HOMER, Ener-gyPLAN, ED, OseMOSYS, PLEXOS, MESSAGE, MARKAL, TIMES, LEAP, and MATLAB [86][87][88][89][90][91][92].  Methodologies used to model DR In the literature, models for decision-making combine different technical aspects and scenarios with RESs to evaluate DR programs in WEMs, microgrids, or DNs. ...
Article
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The energy transition has shown that fossil generation can be complemented with renewable energy and other resources capable of providing flexibility to the energy system's operation, in compliance with the wholesale electricity market's rules. This paper proposes a market-based methodology for introducing flexible demand in the energy dispatch , optimizing the scheduling of electricity system operation in the short-term, and considers the challenge of implementing an incentive scheme for participants in demand-response programs. The scheme includes the criteria of the elasticity of substitution and a renewable energy quota. This methodology is focused on a strategic demand shift to minimize the cost of supply; increase the dispatch of renewable energy; control CO2 emissions; and satisfy the generation, demand, and transmission operating constraints. These conditions encourage the development of a simulation tool that allows a sensitivity analysis to aid decision making by operators and agents. The proposed methodology optimizes the operational cost of generation supply and specific performance indicators to determine the percentages of demand shift, the amount of CO2 emissions, the ratio of unserved power, the demand benefits obtained from an incentive scheme, and the natural market behavior.
... The model minimises the total discounted costs of deploying technologies required to cover energy service demands over a multi-decadal time horizon. It can be used to examine investment decisions and help evaluate how energy and environmental policies impact the energy sector [1,19,24,28,60,82]. ...
Article
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Hydropower plays a critical role in global, South American and Ecuadorian energy policy and for achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, long-term climatic changes may affect the role of hydropower in meeting energy and climate policy objectives. The effects of climate change on runoff availability for hydropower generation are largely uncertain. This paper uses climate change scenarios derived from a large ensemble of Global Circulation Models as input for an energy system optimisation model (TIMES-EC) to examine least-cost options for the hydropower-dominated Ecuadorian power system in the period to 2050. This is done in the context of three policy cases in order to assess trade-offs between power system configuration, emissions and costs. The results show that in the long-term hydropower will remain as one of the most cost-effective and low emission technologies in the Ecuadorian power sector. However, constraints on deployment and uncertainty around climate change impacts could hinder its ability to contribute to the fulfilment of NDC targets, as well as create uncertainty around long-term power system costs. Strategies to hedge against these risks will likely require that hydropower expansion be complemented by alternative sources, namely incremental shares of thermoelectric generation with natural gas, biomass and geo-thermal energy.
... It is the first time that such an in-depth analysis is conducted for Portugal. Other studies have analysed mitigation scenarios, both for the country as a whole [33,34] and only for the power sector [19,35,36]. None of these however have explored the interdependencies between GHG mitigation and electrification. ...
Article
The deep decarbonisation of the power sector coupled with electrification of end-use sectors will be crucial towards a carbon neutral economy, as required to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal. Several studies have highlighted the relevance of electrification under deep decarbonisation. However, previous work does not explore what would be the major shifts towards electrification, i.e., in what economic activities it will likely occur and when up to 2050 considering gradually stricter GHG emissions constraints. This is of upmost relevance since relatively small variations in emission caps may trigger substantial modifications in specific components of the energy system, namely the shift for the electrification of a particular energy end-use, with impacts on the power sector's portfolio. In this paper, we analyse the extension of the electrification of the energy system as a cost-effective strategy for deep decarbonisation. We set a large number of increasingly stringent mitigation caps to assess: (i) the degree of electrification of different energy end-uses across all economic activities, (ii) the impact in power sector portfolio and costs and (iii) investment needs. The novelty of this paper relies on the anticipation of electrification of activities traditionally supplied by non-electricity energy carriers, by exploring when and how such transformation may occur in the future, and how much it would cost. We assess the case of Portugal till 2050 by using the TIMES_PT model to generate 50 increasingly stricter decarbonisation scenarios. In the long term, incremental changes (+1%) in more aggressive decarbonisation targets (beyond −70% reduction) induce substantial increase in the share of electrification growth rates. Electric private vehicles, electricity-based steam and heat production in ceramic industrial sector and heat pumps in buildings are the most cost-effective electric technologies. We found that a decarbonisation up to near −80% of 1990′s levels of the Portuguese energy system does not have a significant impact on the power sector unit costs, and does not surpass historic values for some years. However, it should be noted that incremental changes (+1%) in more aggressive decarbonisation targets may increase sharply electricity costs in 2050 (+9%). Thus, focusing in only few scenarios may narrow the role of electrification (or other mitigation options) and its associated costs for deep decarbonisation. This paper allows researchers, planners and decision makers to enhance awareness regarding the relevance and cost-effectiveness of electrification under decarbonisation, namely its feasibility and affordability, providing fruitful insights.
... The MARKAL (MARKet Allocation) and TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models are widely used to evaluate the impact of national, regional and global energy and environment policies as well as to perform techno-economic assessments. Selected national-scale applications of these models include: longterm energy and emissions forecast for China [19], electricity supply industry for South Africa [20], technology selection for Bangladesh power sector development [21], carbon emission control strategies for China [22], GHG mitigation and associated cost assessment of the French biofuel sector [23], residential heat system planning for Germany [24], electricity decarbonization pathways for Portugal [25], integration of household preferences for heating technologies in the UK [26], the Canadian energy outlook 2050 [27], and multi-pollutant policies for the United States' power sector [28]. Salient regional applications include: energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport [29], assessment of policy and technology mixes required to achieve long-term energy security and environmental sustainability growth of Sub-Saharan Africa [30], assessment of clean technologies for selected ASEAN countries [31]. ...
Article
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This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt's power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt's energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt's Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’ mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.
... To help policymakers, long-term models of Portugal have been used, for instance, to assess the impact of climate change on hydroelectric power generation [37], the impact of the carbon tax on investments in new generation technologies [38], and to evaluate decarbonization pathways for the energy system [39]. Portugal's electric system already has a high share of both renewable capacity (see Table 1) and generation e 58% and 48% respectively [31] e which confers to Portugal a position above the average within EU countries. ...
Article
With the urge to decrease carbon emissions, electricity systems need to evolve to promote the integration of renewable resources and end-use energy efficiency. Demand Response (DR) can be used as a strategy, one among many, to improve the balance between demand and supply of electricity, especially in systems that rely heavily on variable energy renewable resources. Thus, it is important to understand up to what extent a countrywide system would cope with DR implementation. In this work, the impact of demand response in the long-term is assessed, using a model of the Portuguese electricity system in the modeling tool OSeMOSYS. The theoretical potential of DR is computed to understand better the impact on the overall system planning, by analyzing three scenarios – a business as usual scenario, a carbon-free system scenario in 2050, and a scenario without heavy carbon emission restrictions. DR impact in all three scenarios results in a decrease in the overall costs, on the capacity installed and in an increase in the percentage of renewable capacity. Further, an economic analysis showed that DR would take 15 years, on average, to influence the average electricity cost and that the reduction in total costs is mainly due to the avoided capacity investments.
... Additionally, they evaluate the impact of increased penetration of wind and solar generation in Texas on electricity prices and market dynamics [22]. To evaluate long-term decarbonization strategies for the Portuguese market, Amorim et al. employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM (MARKet ALlocation-Energy Flow Optimization Model), to fine least-cost investment strategies through 2050 [23]. Similar work was done by Pereira et al. in the Portuguese market using a 10-year, mixed integer model determining optimal integration of renewable energy sources [24]. ...
Article
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Electricity generation expansion planning models determine the optimal technology-capacity-investment strategy that minimizes market costs including investment costs, and fixed and variable operating & maintenance costs over a long-term planning horizon. From a market cost perspective, fossil fuels are among the most economical sources of electricity, and thus are the primary sources of energy for electricity. However, these energy sources create by-products that have harmful health effects upon exposure. In this paper, a simulation-based, metamodeling approach is leveraged to quantify health damages associated with power grid expansion decisions by linking the outputs of generation expansion planning simulations with a screening tool that quantifies the human health damages from the electricity sector. Using this as a surrogate function for health damages, these costs are included in the objective function of a generation expansion planning model, in addition to market costs and the social damages of carbon emissions and methane leakage to minimize societal damages. Applying an improvement algorithm, candidate data points are selected to enhance metamodel prediction capability. Finally, using an updated metamodel, a new expansion plan is found. This framework enables researchers to better understand the health implications of long-term capacity expansion decisions.
... Alternative bottom-up models include the Long- range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model (Özer et al., 2013) and the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) ( Hainoun et al., 2014). Compared with these models, the MARKAL/TIMES model is a well- developed optimization method from the cost effectiveness perspective (Amorim et al., 2014;Chiodi et al., 2013;Jegarl et al., 2009;Mallah and Bansal, 2011;Mondal et al., 2011;van den Broek et al., 2008). Such model has the advantage of integrating technological learning effects into its technology cost simulation module (Martinsen, 2011b). ...
Article
The Chinese power sector faces a significant challenge in attempting to mitigate its CO2 emissions while meeting its fast-growing demand for electricity. To address this challenge, an analytical framework is proposed that incorporates technological learning curves in a technology optimization model. The framework is employed to evaluate the technology trajectories, resource utilization and economic impacts in the power sector of Tianjin in 2005–2050. Using multi-scenario analysis, this study reveals that CO2 emissions could be significantly reduced if relevant mitigation policies are introduced. The main technologies adopted are ultra-super-critical combustion, integrated gasification combined cycle, wind power, hydropower, biomass power, solar photovoltaic power and solar thermal power. Despite uncertainties, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage technology could be cost competitive in the future. The CO2 emissions cap policy has the advantage of realizing an explicit goal in the target year, while the renewable energy policy contributes to more cumulative CO2 emissions reduction and coal savings. A carbon tax of 320 CNY/ton CO2 would contribute to early renewable energy development and more CO2 reduction in the short run. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the impacts on the power system of learning rates, technology cost reductions and energy fuel price trajectories.
... One of the most relevant sectors involved in decarbonization measures and policies is the power generation one; as a consequence, different studies have been devoted to the analysis of the related policy options. In particular, Amorim et al. [48] explored the cost-effectiveness of reaching full decarbonization in the power generation system of Portugal by 2050, through an optimization bottom-up forecasting TIMES model. Mercure et al. [49] used instead the global macro-economic model FTT: Power-E3MG [50,51] to analyze the decarbonization of the electricity sector under ten different scenario in 21 regions, thus showing that, by adopting a suitable combination of policies, a 90% decarbonization of this sector could be obtained without a special technological break-through. ...
Article
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The challenge of worldwide energy decarbonization is crucial to ensure sustainable development. The achievement of decarbonization encompasses not only a considerable exploitation of renewable energy sources, but also a paradigm shift in final energy uses towards their massive electrification. Electrification based on Global Energy Interconnections (GEI) is one of the possible pathways towards decarbonization in energy systems. In this paper, we critically discuss the idea of decarbonization through global interconnections in an 'electricity based' world, contrasting it against the typically desirable attributes for energy in terms of security, efficiency, sustainability, and affordability. We provide a comparative analysis of global interconnection with other internationally proposed visions of future energy scenarios. The analysis shows that the GEI option could be particularly beneficial from an environmental point of view; however, it requests deep and relevant modifications in the energy markets and regulations, in which a common framework based on the cooperation among different countries is needed.
... For instance, Refs. [22][23][24] investigate decarbonization pathways and the need for new investments in transmission capacities in South Korea, Portugal and Switzerland respectively using TIMES models. However, these studies do not consider regional differences and actor diversity within this sector. ...
Article
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The German energy supply sector is becoming diverse and dispersed due to the variety of actors investing in energy generation technologies and spatially variable renewable resources, which bring about increased heterogeneity in the investment decisions of actors. Therefore, the effective utilization of renewable resources towards a cost-optimal achievement of the "Energy Transition" goals is becoming more complex. We argue that addressing these complexities requires a method, which, in addition to a fine technological and regional characterization , takes into account the heterogeneity of the investment decisions of actors while optimizing the total system. This paper describes methodological improvements via the well-known energy system optimization model generator called The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (i.e. TIMES), which enhances the representation of the actors' investment realities regarding wind and photovoltaic technologies applied to the case of the German supply sector. Firstly, the actors are disaggregated by their main economic features, including cost of capital, representing their different investment valuations and budget restrictions. Then, Germany is divided into four regions to reflect the spatially variable renewable resources and electricity demand affecting actors' optimal decisions. Lastly, the grid development costs and losses are considered, especially for power transmission across the regions. The newly developed TIMES Actors Model (TAM) incorporating these improvements is then tested to separately study the impact of CO 2 taxes as a policy instrument and a national renewable quota as a target for the sector. The results showed that CO 2 taxes and renewable targets affect the system quite differently, specifically regarding the optimal role that actors are expected to play within regions to meet the objectives of energy transitions at least system costs as well as regarding the power transmission between the regions. By means of these findings, actors can be targeted more properly by actor-and region-specific policy instruments demonstrating which actor should invest where and into which technology, so that the energy transition can take place more quickly and at lower system costs. A comparison of the improved versus original versions of the model reveals the potential contribution of improving the representation of actors that have been so far overlooked in the energy system modelling practice.
... The Integrated Markal Efom System (TIMES) model generator, developed within the "Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program" (ETSAP) of the IEA (see Loulou et al. [11][12][13]), is a wellestablished tool for creation of energy models. TIMES has been widely used to assess the decarbonisation pathways and strategies on global [14], European [15], and country level [16,17]. Timmerman et al. [18] classify the TIMES model-alongside MARKAL [19], ETEM [20], and OSeMOSYS [21]-as an evolved energy system model. ...
Article
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In 2015, a 24-year-long prohibition of coal mining within some territories in the North Bohemia coal basin was lifted and as a consequence mining a part of the brown coal reserves might well be resumed. This paper analyses the impacts of maintaining the ban versus three options for a less environmentally stringent policy on the Czech energy system; fuel- and technology-mix, the costs of generating energy, emissions and related external costs up to 2050. We find that overall the effect of lifting the ban, on coal usage, air pollutant emissions and hence externalities is rather small, up to 1–2% compared to the level of keeping the ban. The small difference in the impacts remains even if changes in the prices of fossil fuels and European Emission Allowances or different development in nuclear power usage are assumed. In fact, changing these assumptions will result in more pronounced differences in the impacts than the four policy options might deliver. Maintaining the ban would not achieve the European Energy Roadmap 2050 target and the newly adopted policy and the other two counter-environmental proposals would miss the 80% reduction target to an even greater degree. The environmental and external health costs attributable to emissions of local air pollutants stemming from power generation are in a range of €26–32 billion over the whole period and decline from about 0.5% of gross domestic product in 2015 to 0.1% in 2050.
... Several factors related to time were considered in their study. Also, Amorim et al. [28] analyzed the opportunities of cost-benefit in Portugal to achieve decarburization of the power sector by 2050. ...
Article
National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration have launched a series of policies on closing down small coal-power units, in order to reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions. However, it is hard to change current situation in the short term since coal is still the domain source of power generation in China. Aiming at efficiently closing down the small power units, to create a power generation planning model with minimized costs needs to take both economic and technical aspects into account. In this paper, eight types of coal-fired generators are classified into three categories: Inefficient units; Efficient units; and Low-carbon units. This paper has developed a power generation planning model under multiple constraint conditions such as coal-power demand, total installed capacity, and carbon capture etc. Also, the model involves variable costs of CCS technology and contingency payments at the same time. This paper has applied the power generation planning model into China's coal-fired power industry research during the period from 2016 to 2030. The results show that because the coal-power demand ends up with a drop following a rise, the total costs thereby shows a same trend. During the planning period, the fuel costs and the operation and maintenance costs decrease most obviously. Given the installed capacity, compared with the increase in the number of efficient units, the number of inefficient units shows a gradual decrease. The number of low-carbon units displays a slight increase. Since low-carbon units can capture and store 90% of their carbon emissions, the total carbon emissions from coal-fired power industry have significantly been reduced in their operation year. Thus, it is imperative to develop high efficiency and low-carbon units as they will be the major contributors to the sustainable development of the coal-fired power industry.
... Most of the literature found presents some sort of exploratory analysis using a particular version of TIMES. These research works are commonly used in a particular country/region context to achieve a particular goal (such as finding the carbon reduction pathway in Portugal for 2050 (Amorim et al., 2014)). Examples of such analyses are provided below. ...
Technical Report
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http://www.climatexchange.org.uk/reducing-emissions/using-times-model-developing-energy-policy/
... Schematic structure of the TIMES model is presented inFigure 1. Key exogenous input parameters are: techno-economic database, energy demand, energy prices, emission coefficients, targets, subsidies, taxes and endogenous outputs are: technology investments, annual activities of technologies, energy requirement, marginal energy prices, levelized cost of electricity, import/export of energy, emission trajectories, emissions permit and total discounted system costs. The TIMES model used in this study, is the most widely used energy system optimization model, where it has been used in many country level analysis (for example,Rout et al. (2011); IRG (2010);Amorim et al.(2014); DeLaquil et al. (2003);Nguyen (2005);Mondal et al.(2014)) .(generation share)  Electricity Price The Philippine Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (Phil-DCGE) on the other hand is an economywide model that was build based on the standard International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) model (Lofgren, Harris, and Robinson 2002), but was extended by incorporating the inter-period solution to capture the effect of changes in investment and capital accumulation as documented in Diao and Thurlow (2012). ...
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Meeting future demand of electricity is one big challenge that the Philippine economy has to face as the economy growing strong. Promoting renewable technology in the power sector has been part of the government plan in order to increase energy security and to benefit from environmental externalities. This study assesses the economy-wide impact of promoting renewable power generation by targeting 50 percent share of renewable in 2040. Using a novel approach by linking a bottom-up energy model with a top-down economy-wide model, we found that increasing renewable share in the power sector could potentially slow down industrialization process and reduce economic growth. Implementing this policy, however would allow the country to reduce carbon emission by 65 million tons in 2040 and improve energy security. The health co-benefit on average is estimated about PHP 324 billion, which levelizes the welfare loss. Receiving foreign financial inflow as a compensation from reducing carbon emission on the other hand, could potentially drive the economy into Dutch disease indicated by the shift of economic activities from tradable into non-tradeable sector. As a policy response, increasing total investment demand in the future could potentially mitigate the effect and improve economic welfare by PHP 155 billion.
... This approach allows us to analyse the systemic and environmental implications of India's development aspirations under a consistent framework, drawing out the inter-sectoral consequences of specific interventions. Structurally, it consists of primary energy supply curves, energy transformation sector (refineries, hydrogen etc.), power sector (supply) to ensure sustained provision of electricity to end-users, and end-use demands from four key sectors -agriculture, buildings, industries and transport (Kypreos et al., 2008;Labriet et al., 2012;Amorim et al., 2014). The India Multi Regional TIMES model (IMRT) presented in this study is distinctive in taking a hybrid approach, where the power sector is formulated as an optimization model while the end-use sectors follow an accounting framework. ...
Article
This study placed improving quality of life at the centre of India’s national climate policy and asked what happens to greenhouse gas emissions with such an approach. In the lead up to the Paris climate agreement in 2015, countries determined their contributions based on their priorities, contexts, and capabilities and prepared their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. Following the agreement, these became each country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Using bottom-up scenario analyses, the sectoral interventions modelled in this research demonstrate that it is possible to get close to achieving the country’s NDC targets while improving quality of life at the same time. A comparison of a Business-As-Usual (BAU) and a sustainable development (SD) pathway leading up to 2030 reveals that improvements in a range of sustainable development conditions are possible. These include reduction in air pollution, savings in water and land use, and savings in materials and resource requirements. These changes occur along with a nearly 30% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and a 25% reduction in primary energy compared with BAU. Emissions intensity in 2030 is reduced in the sustainable development pathway by 16% compared with that in 2012 and fossil-free sources are able to contribute to about a third of India’s electricity.
... Decarbonisation of energy has also been studied extensively both at country, regional, and global levels. Amorim et al. [32] investigated decarbonisation pathways to 2050 for the Portuguese electricity sector, with focus on the market structure. Although renewable energy developments are a key opportunity, impacts of climate change on supply are not considered. ...
Article
Understanding the impact of climate change on renewable energy resources is increasingly vital as our energy systems transition towards higher levels of renewable generation. This paper explores power system transition under climate change impacts on hydro resources, as well as the impact of climate change on the cost of decarbonisation. An integrated energy systems assessment tool is used to investigate the impact of altered seasonal availability factors on the optimal energy investment pathways. The cost of decarbonisation is assessed under climate change impact on the hydro resources, as well as the impact of discount rate assumptions on the total cost of decarbonisation. Results show that in the case of New Zealand, more hydro will be available in winter due to climate change, but less in summer, which is compensated for with increased solar capacity. Decarbonisation in New Zealand sees a major transformation in the transport sector, supported by a relatively moderate increase in overall demand in the electricity sector. While climate change impact on the hydro resource may reduce the total cost of decarbonisation in New Zealand, this cannot be generalised, as these impacts vary across countries and regions.
... Each group of data input requires a set of defined information. The user also has to choose proper units for costs, energy flows, final energy demands, activity levels, and capacities of conversion technologies (Nobel 2007;Loulou et al. 2005;Amorim et al. 2014). ...
... For examples, the cross border Swiss TIMES electricity model (CROSSTEM) has been used to study the impacts of a nuclear phase out under different scenarios for lowcarbon electricity generation in Switzerland and its neighbouring countries [37] . The Portugal TIMES model has also been applied to analyse the cost-optimal pathway for Portugal to realise 100% decarbonisation of its electricity supply system by 2050 [38] . A key characteristic of the TIMES model is its systematic approach to dealing with uncertainties. ...
Article
An attempt has been made using a bottom-up model to examine business-as-usual and 100% renewable electricity generation scenarios for Nigeria. Results indicate that Nigeria can achieve 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050 with the deployment of a mix of renewable energy technologies, especially utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind turbines. CO2 emissions are expected to peak by 2030 and decline to zero in 2050. In terms of total system cost, a transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2050 is a cheaper option compared to the conventional pathway, and it could potentially create around 1.54 million jobs for Nigerians by 2050
... Some studies combine several models to obtain deeper sectoral insights and analyse the effects on the wider economy [32][33][34]. Others focus on a single sector independently of whether the model includes only the sector [35][36][37][38][39] or the whole energy system [40][41][42]. Representing the whole energy system is important when analysing decarbonisation pathways as it allows the representation of trade-offs between sectors under resource constraints [16]. ...
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This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.
... The feasibility of regional energy trading, the diversification of the primary energy supply-mix, the implications of including additional renewable energy technologies into the energy system, and the identification of national/regional energy policies for the development of sustainable Selected national-scale applications of these models include: energy and emissions forecast for China [4], electricity supply assessment for South Africa [5], future technology choices for Bangladesh's power sector development [8], strategies to control GHG emissions in China [9], deep decarbonization pathways for Canada [10], benefits assessment of sectoral demand-side flexibility in the United Kingdom [11], German residential heat systems planning [12], electricity decarbonization pathways for Portugal [13], integration of household preferences for heating technologies in the United Kingdom [14], energy outlook to 2050 for Canada [15], multipollutant power sector policies for the U.S. [16], elasticities of substitution applied to incorporate transport modal shifts in Denmark [17], and 100% renewable and reliable power systems for Réunion Island, France [18]. ...
Article
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This paper develops a regional TIMES modelling framework for the electricity sector of the Eastern Nile Basin region, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, to assess the potential of energy trading for cross-border collaboration in this rapidly growing sector. Four alternative scenarios are developed for the 2014–2050 period to assess national and regional benefits of alternative energy development strategies. The study finds that electricity trading scenarios out-perform a reference scenario that assumes no energy trading, lowering systems cost by 4.5–7.2%. Total systems costs are lower, even when transmission costs for trade are considered. Costs are also lower with increased generation from renewables compared to investments without regional trade. Investing in renewables has important co-benefits, such as improved energy security and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Supporting energy trade not only reduces systems costs, but can also strengthen cooperation in the region, as reflected in the energy trading efforts of the East African Power Pool and the transboundary collaboration efforts of the Nile Basin Initiative.
... For example, Amorim et al. (2014) have used a TIMES approach to analyze possibilities to fully decarbonize electricity generation in Portugal by 2050, in order to contribute to a deep decarbonization of the Portuguese energy sector. To this end, two cases were considered: (1) the Portuguese generation sector is optimized as an isolated system, and (2) the latter is part of an integrated Iberian system (Portugal and Spain). ...
Chapter
Mathematical models of energy-economy-environmental systems (E3) provide a rational framework for exploring the effects of energy and climate policies and support adequate decision-making. Numerous models have been developed over the years with different solution approaches, features, geographical scope and time resolution. There is no complete or ideal models but different models that answer different questions or similar questions with different perspectives. Developed since the early 1980s, the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) optimization models have contributed to support decision-making at various geographical scales from global to city levels. In this Chapter, we distinguish a set of national studies that performed TIMES model developments to study the energy transition and address the impacts of integrating high levels of renewable energies on the system. Each study follows a different approach with the sole purpose to optimize the energy used in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Examples of applications are provided to illustrate the rich potential of optimization models for assisting decision makers with climate change mitigation. In particular, a special attention is given to the electricity sector as electrification of end-uses and decarbonization of the electricity sector are consistent priorities of actions across studies.
... Long-term energy planning models have been carried out for different countries around the globe, exploring different objectives but with the goal of enhancing effective policy decision making (Amorim et al., 2014;Das et al., 2018;Foxon, 2013;Min, Ryu, Hyun, & Choi, 2017;Ouedraogo, 2017;Pina, Silva, & Ferrão, 2013, 2011Senatla, Nchake, Taele, & Hapazari, 2018;Zapata, Castaneda, Garces, Franco, & Dyner, 2018). Specific scientific research dedicated to Ghana in relation to future supply capacity model is limited and sporadic, particularly with regards to the introduction of RES and quantification of the cost for reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from electricity generation. ...
Article
Ghana is one of the few countries within the sub-Saharan region which has been successful in reducing energy poverty. However, ensuring energy security, affordability, and environmental sustainability remains a significant challenge for the future development of the sub-region. Here, we examine how the electricity supply can evolve into the future to meet potential emission obligations for the period of 2020–2040. A generation expansion planning model which is able to incorporate the reality of fuel shortages and fuel switching typical of a developing country's power system is used. In doing so, we generate a range of emission reduction costs that provide important benchmarks for the relatively under-studied sub-Saharan region and identify drivers of these costs specific to developing countries. Results indicate that the total discounted cost in expanding generation to meet the demand for all scenarios range from 13–17 billion US$, while the expected emission ranges from 99–189 mtCO2. Subsequently, the cost of meeting different emission targets up to 2040 was quantified for each scenario ranging from 11–39 US$/tonne, which could be used as a benchmark for comparison in developed countries. We find that discount rates, representing Ghana's access to capital, are a particularly important variable for developing countries. We find that lower discount rates can lead to more investment in capital intensive renewable energy in the long run but can also lock in an additional conventional generation investment in the short term. Sensitivity analysis of demand growth reduction shows that with a 1% growth rate, the requirement of generation capacity could be reduced by 84%, providing initial evidence for the benefits of investing in demand-side measures. The study provides data and policy recommendations needed to inform decision-makers in developing countries as well as a comparison point for identifying decarbonization costs internationally.
... The results suggested that governments should not plan their energy system development in isolation but communicate with affected countries to increase the efficiency and decrease costs. Thus, the transmission infrastructure is expected to play a crucial role in the future [6]. ...
Article
As energy systems will increasingly become renewable, they will face new challenges that mainly arise due to the varying output by many renewable energy technologies. An issue that is especially prominent for countries with high shares of hydropower in their electricity generation is the varying yearly output of these technologies. This work aims to propose a techno-economically optimized energy system for such a country, using Portugal as example. For this purpose the current situation is analyzed and an energy demand model for 2050 created. The energy system is optimized for years with different outputs of hydropower to analyze the system’s behavior using the simulation tool EnergyPLAN. As the tool does not possess inherent optimization capabilities it was coupled with the gray wolf optimization algorithm using Matlab. Subsequently, a system is proposed that is able to cover Portugal’s expected energy demand under all circumstances. The future system will rely strongly on wind and solar power as they are expected to cover around 75% of Portugal’s electricity demand. Furthermore, the analysis showed that Portugal needs to build up electrolyzer capacities of 4.2 GW and SynGas capacities of 2.4 GW as the SynGas will be used to balance supply in demand, especially in years with lower hydropower output. The system’s cost will be between 22 and 35% cheaper than the created reference model. Furthermore, the primary energy demand is expected to decrease from 253 TWh to around 150 TWh while the electricity demand rises from 49 TWh to around 110 TWh.
Chapter
Limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2 ℃ this century requires the implementation of climate policies not only on an international or national level, but also on a local scale. This study evaluates decarbonization pathways for Switzerland through local-scale energy systems planning under a national energy policy which reflects Swiss CO2 emission reduction targets within the Paris Agreement. Clustering techniques are applied to identify characteristic local energy systems (archetypes) across Switzerland. Key archetypes are then evaluated using a parameterized, least-cost optimization, community energy systems model in TIMES. Heat and electricity demands for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors are considered. The study finds that locally generated CO2 emissions are reduced by 85% in 2050 relative to 2015, on average, across the evaluated archetypes and sectors. The implementation of high CO2 taxes drives this result. CO2 emission reductions are also driven by the uptake of efficiency measures (including renovations and efficient end-use devices). These measures should be encouraged by local governments as part of local climate strategies. Decision-makers should also encourage the local-scale deployment of heat pump and solar PV technologies, which are found to generate significant shares of heat and electricity by 2050, cost optimally, across the archetypes. The utilization of local energy resources, including biomass, also plays an important role in achieving significant local-scale emission reductions in the long-term.
Article
Transformation towards climate-neutral energy systems is becoming a challenge worldwide. Most often, strategic planning for the mid- and long-term is tackled with the use of generation expansion optimization models, which have limited capabilities to track in detail power system operation. On the other hand, the unit commitment and economic dispatch models consider many technical constraints but are usually used for short-term planning. The methodological approach presented in this paper aims to improve the planning capabilities by the combination of generation expansion and short-term planning models into one modelling system. Two models were coupled, namely TIMES-PL and MEDUSA, to design a pathway to carbon neutrality in the Polish power system. Three energy scenarios elaborated in this work show that a 95 % reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the public electricity and district heat production sectors is possible by 2050. The proposed approach improved the robustness of elaborated energy scenarios as in their first versions two of them turned out to be technically infeasible. Detail simulations of the system operation showed that load balancing is possible once 15–20 GW of electrical capacity is installed in dispatchable power generation technologies by 2050 in addition to energy storage and combined heat and power plants.
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Deep decarbonisation – i.e. the transition towards net-zero emissions energy systems – will be enabled by a high penetration of intermittent renewables, storage and sector-coupling technologies. In this paper, we present a novel modelling approach to capture the increasing complexity of such future energy systems and help policy makers choose among the different possible transition scenarios. Salient features of our model, consisting of an extended and regionalised version of EnergyScope (Limpens et al., 2019 [1]), are a low computational time and a concise formulation which make it suitable for uncertainty and what-if analyses. As a case study, the model is applied to devise scenarios for the Italian energy transition. Specifically, we develop the first open-source whole-energy system model of Italy and assess the feasibility of its decarbonisation strategy with respect to uncertainties in the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable technologies. Results show that emissions can be cut by 79%–97% vs. 1990 levels thanks to a radical electrification of the energy system coupled to a wide deployment of renewables and efficient energy conversion technologies. Finally, we discuss the synergies, advantages and disadvantages of our proposed approach with respect to alternative modelling approaches used across 88 recent deep decarbonisation studies. The analysis suggests that our model, thanks to its computational efficiency and a snapshot approach (i.e., modelling a target-year in the future), can complement more detailed and established energy models optimising the energy transition pathway (i.e., modelling the pathway from today to the target year).
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This study presents a new methodology, based on Monte-Carlo techniques to evaluate the reliability of a carbon-free electricity generation system based on renewable sources; it uses as inputs the variation of the electricity demand and the fluctuations in the renewable supply and provides the renewable system to be installed to guarantee a specific supply reliability level. Additionally, looking for a reduction of this renewable system, the methodology determines the improvements by the incorporation of nuclear power and electricity storage. The methodology is of general application, its implementation being possible under different contexts, such as different time horizons and different future energy scenarios, both for developing, emerging, and developed countries. The only requirement is to have a sufficient database from which to make predictions for future scenarios of electrical generation–demand balances. As an example of practical implementation, the electrical system reliability for the particular case of Spain in 2040 has been forecasted. When considering the fluctuations in solar and wind power contributions, very high values of the installed power from these renewable sources are needed to reach a high reliability of the system. These values decrease substantially if contributions from nuclear and storage technologies are included.
Article
With over 50% of the world's population residing in cities, urban areas have the potential to contribute significantly to global CO2 emissions reductions through careful urban energy systems planning and community participation. However, urban policymakers must operate within the constraints imposed by national energy policies. This study aims to understand the impacts of different national energy strategies on long-term urban energy systems planning through a case study for the city of Basel in Switzerland. A cost optimization modeling approach is employed and heat and electricity demand sectors are considered. Energy efficiency measures, particularly building renovations, are found to be cost optimal and enable significant energy demand reductions. Decentralized generation and storage technologies, including rooftop PV, heat pumps, small gas CHPs, and batteries, also provide pathways to reduce emissions and improve energetic self-sufficiency in the long-term. Heat generation using municipal waste provides a cost optimal, low emissions generation pathway as well. Carbon taxes are found to have a significant impact on the uptake of low-emission technologies. The urban environment encourages policymakers to pursue strategies to reduce local CO2 emissions across all national energy policy options evaluated, not only achieving, but also exceeding relative national policy targets in a cost optimal solution.
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Based on the empirical data of 22 airlines during 2014–2019, the paper studies the impact of the introduction of Carbon neutral growth from 2020 (CNG2020) strategy on airlines' pollution abatement costs. This research considers the prices of inputs and outputs, and proposes a new Profit Pollution Abatement Costs (PPAC) index to ensure that the calculated Net Pollution Abatement Costs (NPAC) index is a cost index rather than a physical index, and a two-stage network environment production function is established to discuss the NPAC differences before and after the CNG2020 strategy was proposed. The main findings are: (a)The introduction of CNG2020 strategy has had a certain degree of impact on the airlines’ net pollution abatement costs. (b)All Nippon Airways has the largest NPAC among the 22 airlines, while Delta Air Lines and Finnair have excellent pollution abatement performance during 2014–2019. (c)Aviation carbon emissions are closely related to jet fuel consumption and route distance.
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There are real political and social barriers to climate mitigation that arise from multi-actor dynamics and micro-economic decisions. Exploratory analysis that captures key uncertainties in the energy system, including behaviour, is crucial for policy design aimed at achieving ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets. This paper explores the case for developing policy assessments that include non-optimal behaviour in energy systems modelling. A stochastic system dynamic model of the energy system that features multiple actors with differentiated behaviours is used to investigate energy transition pathways that deviate from strict economic rationality. The results illustrate the risks of basing GHG reduction strategies on analysis that overlooks key insights into decision making from fields such as behavioural economics and political science.
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This paper presents an assessment of alternative, long-term energy supply and low-carbon strategies for the Philippine power sector from 2014 to 2040 using TIMES model. It examines the potential contribution of renewable energy to diversify the Philippine energy supply-mix to meet future electricity demands. The reference scenario compares the impact of four alternative policy goals: (1) carbon tax, (2) targeted renewable-based power generation, (3) limited coal share in supply-mix, and (4) renewables subsidy. The reference scenario shows a significant increase of the share of coal-based power generation and import dependency of fossil-fuel increases from 227 PJ in 2016 to 1073 PJ in 2040. The model results for the alternative policy scenarios show a large potential for renewable energy-based power generation. The alternative policy options show a significant decrease of import dependency in the energy supply-mix for power generation. Most alternative policy scenarios project a higher total system cost, with the exception of the subsidy scenario. System cost increases only 2.6% in the renewables target scenario relative to the reference scenario. However, long-term benefits from investing in the alternative policy options would need to be considered, including diversification of energy supply-mix, improved energy security, and progress toward a low-carbon society.
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Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessments of the impact of energy policies on the economy and environment. Most EPMs originated in developed countries and are primarily aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing energy security. In contrast, most, if not all, developing countries are predominantly concerned with increasing energy access. Here, we review thirty-four widely used EPMs to investigate their applicability to developing countries and find an absence of consideration of the objectives, challenges, and nuances of the developing context. Key deficiencies arise from the lack of deliberation of the low energy demand resulting from lack of access and availability of supply. Other inadequacies include the lack of consideration of socio-economic nuances such as the prevalence of corruption and resulting cost inflation, the methods for adequately addressing the shortcomings in data quality, availability and adequacy, and the effects of climate change. We argue for further research on characterization and modelling of suppressed demand, climate change impacts, and socio-political feedback in developing countries, and the development of contextual EPMs.
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Now that renewable technologies are both technically and commercially mature, the imperfect rational behaviour of investors becomes a critical factor in the future success of the energy transition. Here, we take an agent-based approach to model investor decision making in the electricity sector by modelling investors as actors with different (heterogeneous) anticipations of the future. With only a limited set of assumptions, this generic model replicates the dynamics of the liberalised electricity market of the last decades and points out dynamics that are to be expected as the energy transition progresses. Importantly, these dynamics are emergent properties of the evolving electricity system resulting from actor (investor) behaviour. We have experimented with varying carbon price scenarios and find that incorporating heterogeneous investor behaviour results in a large bandwidth of possible transition pathways, and that the depth of renewables penetration is correlated with the variability of their power generation pattern. Furthermore, a counter-intuitive trend was observed, namely that average profits of investors are seen to increase with carbon prices. These results are a vivid and generic illustration that outcome-based policy cannot be solely based on market instruments that rely on perfect rational and perfectly informed agents.
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Due to the coal-dominated power generation structure, Shandong is facing severe power source structural contradiction and tremendous pressure to reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, considering the elimination of coal power overcapacity and introduction of carbon capture and storage technology, this study established an optimization model to identify the low-carbon production pathways for Shandong’s power industry. The results indicated that nuclear power, wind power and complementary energy power would be the overriding clean energy power generation technologies. As to coal power, less than 300 MW-level generating units would be eliminated totally at the end of 2021, then followed by 300 MW-level generating units. And no doubt, 1000 MW-level generating units would become the primary coal-fired power generation technology gradually. Moreover, in 2021, clean energy power would account for about 52.33% of the total installed capacity, surpassing coal power for the first time and undertaking the main task of power generation. Hence, while striving to develop clean energy, those acquired achievements refer to elimination of coal power overcapacity should be further consolidated. Furthermore, when promoting carbon capture and storage technology, governments should not only make a trade-off analysis between its cost and environmental benefit, but also take the provincial actual situation and economic affordability into account.
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Renewable energy technologies play an important role in the future energy systems, not only to realize a low-carbon society, but also to provide socioeconomic benefits such as creating employment opportunities and revitalizing local economies. This study considers the impact of employment in rural power plants as a socioeconomic benefit and analyzes the transition to a low-carbon energy system using a multi-regional MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. The benefit is monetized in order to incorporate it into a cost minimization objective function, and we focus on the impact of the differences in the value on the Japanese energy system and employment. Our results suggest that when considering employment effects of rural power plants, renewable power generation will increase up to 350 TWh, mainly biomass and solar photovoltaic, in 2030. Total employment associated with power generation facilities in rural areas over the model period (45 y) will increase by up to 2.28 million person-year, and biomass power generation, in particular, can have a significant role in the revitalization of local economies owing to the large job creation effect during its operation and maintenance phase.
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Bangladesh, currently a low middle-income economy aspires to become a high middle income country by 2021. To achieve such aspiration, the country will have to ensure adequate power supply for its fast growing economy. Bangladesh lacks energy resources for power generation. This paper explores some of the power supply scenarios with special focus on power imports and higher use of renewables. Using the technology rich, least cost optimization model 'The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES)', the authors developed four possible future power supply scenarios for Bangladesh. These scenarios include an energy security framework (based on the Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2016 report), a high power import scenario, a scenario with higher use of renewables and a combined high power import - high renewables development scenario. The analysis indicates that the present energy security framework ensures energy security with diversifying fuels used for power generation, however, scenarios with high power imports and a high share of renewables (including the combined scenario) bring down the cost of supplying power along with a reduction in expensive fossil fuel imports while maintaining energy security as fuel sources for power generation still remain diversified. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218307928
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Current electricity markets operate on a cost minimizing objective for power supply. However, countries across the world need to decarbonize their power systems in line with their policy objectives to mitigate climate change. In this context, this paper presents a framework to analyze synergies and trade-offs in cost and emission minimization strategies in the power sector. Emission minimizing objective can reduce emissions from existing fleets having flexibility in electricity supply, regardless of renewable energy capacity additions. This framework can also provide us with win-win strategies for reducing emissions while keeping costs low. An optimization model is developed for case study of India with data of 568 coal and 199 gas thermal units to analyze alternative real time dispatch and operating strategies. The cost and emission optimal supply strategies are compared in terms of power plant operations, emission reductions, and resulting cost of carbon abatement. The results show that 9.8% of carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced with 19% increment in the cost of electricity in emission minimizing strategy with respect to cost minimization. The operations in emission optimal supply strategy require additional 28 million dollars per day. The cost of carbon abatement is 99–129 dollars per tonne.
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This paper aims to analyze Iran's long-term power sector development from economic, environmental, social, and sustainable perspectives. For this purpose, a linear programming model is developed, which includes three objective functions: minimization of costs, minimization of CO2 emissions, and maximization of created jobs. To provide a sustainable plan, analytical hierarchy process is employed to allocate expert-based weights to the objective functions. Moreover, to support the decision-makers, Pareto-optimal alternatives are explored by varying the weights of objectives. The multi-objective model is solved by applying a weighted method based on fuzzy membership functions. The results show that a sustainable scenario leads to high technology diversification. Furthermore, the combined cycle would be the dominant option in Iran's long-term generation mix. In addition, power generation from non-hydro renewables, solar PV in particular, should grow faster than the total electricity demand. The findings indicate that the economic scenario fulfills Iran's commitment to 4% reduction of emissions compared to the current trend; however, the sustainable and environmental scenarios would cause achievement of the superior 12% reduction goal. Multi-objective analysis shows that moving away from one's objective optimum value leads to significant improvements in other objective values.
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West African countries face a long-standing energy access issue stemming from historical low generation capacity, poor planning processes and financially-constrained power utilities. Within current frameworks, progress towards achieving universal access to electricity is slow. However, the region displays a huge endowment of renewables which clearly appear to be paramount to expanding electricity generation capacity and meeting an ever-rising demand. The clear evidence of the crescent role of utility-scale expansion of renewables-based generation has called for collective action in the region to improve electricity access and drive economic growth. Therefore, research on the design and implementation of a renewables-based future for West Africa is needed. However, the literature on electricity planning considering the use of renewables in West Africa is scarce and mostly limited to least-cost and/or low-resolution modeling. Through an exploratory approach, the present study contributes to enhancing current knowledge by capturing the essence of the existing literature on generation capacity expansion modeling approaches and critically analyzing their shortcomings to define potential improvement avenues for future research. Advancing academic knowledge in such direction would provide sound scientific evidence to key national and regional stakeholders in order to take a step closer towards building a resilient future for West African countries.
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This paper presents the ongoing research within Clim2Power project Portuguese case study. Its main goal (as a first step) is to show the relevance of using a highly detailed spatial and temporal modeling tool of the Portuguese electricity system in order to be able to adequately capture climate variability in the planning of the system up to 2050. To do so, we consider seasonal and intraday hydro, wind and solar resources variability in a large TIMES energy system model, in the eTIMES_PT model. Existing hydro, wind and thermal powerplants are modelled individually, whereas new plants are modelled at municipality level. The importance of introducing climate variability is assessed by modeling six scenarios: a reference case and both “humid” and “dry” hydropower scenarios. Each of these is also modelled with CO2 emissions cap by 2050. Results show that hydropower electricity generation variations are within range of those referred in literature by other authors. However, in this work, we are able to capture higher variations within seasons and time of day. Also, the analysis enables to account for the combined variability of hydro, PV and wind resources. This variability will subsequently consider data from seasonal forecasts and climate projections.
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The decarbonization of industrial energy consumption is critical for global climate change mitigation, and this process can bring multiple challenges, especially for regions at the early stage of industrialization. To explore the possible transitions of industry sector under 2-degree target, this paper applied a 14-region energy system model (Global TIMES) to analyze the transition pathways of industry sector. The socio-economic uncertainty was considered by introducing Shared Socio-economic Pathways into scenario design. Moreover, a comparison between China, India and West Europe was conducted, to provide information on the key challenges for regions at different industrialization stages. Modeling results show that: 1. In reference scenarios, global industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions would keep growing in next decades, industry sector may emit over 25% of total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050; 2. The changes in socio-economic developing pattern could slow down the emission growth, however, under 2-degree target, at least 118 Gt of additional emission reduction is required from 2010 to 2050; 3. The mitigation requirement would lead to great energy structure changes including rapid electrification, electricity may be able to provide nearly 40% of Western Europe's industrial final energy consumption by 2050; 4. Improvement on energy intensity would be accelerated in RCP26 scenarios, especially for emerging economies, by mid-century, China and India's industrial energy intensity would reduce by over 60% and 50% respectively, compared with 2010’s level.
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West Africa holds some of the lowest electrification rates in sub-Saharan Africa with high disparities among countries and between urban and rural areas. Despite long-standing efforts to scale-up electrification levels, overall progress remains slow and highly cost ineffective. Hence, it is crucial that electricity planning processes primarily address the questions of the complementarity between utility-scale and decentralised generation. This paper applies the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to two ECOWAS countries – Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire – with the aim of determining the optimal combination of grid-connected and off-grid systems to serve rural and urban demand by 2030, using high-resolution geospatial data. This country-wide analysis highlights the fundamental role of off-grid solar photovoltaics and wind technologies in bridging the electricity access gap, particularly in Burkina Faso. Additionally, cheaper electricity costs in Côte d’Ivoire could be taken advantage of through enhanced cross-border exchanges between the two countries.
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This paper presents the methodology and results of an integrated generation and transmission expansion planning study for the ten-country Balkans region. The methodology, which is based on large scale decomposition techniques, allows a detailed representation of the multi-regional hydrothermal system operation, such as chronological simulation, modeling of water coupling for reservoirs in cascade, pumped storage, stochastic optimization of reservoir operation, multivariate probabilistic inflow modeling, transmission network constraints, spot purchases and emission limits. On the investment side, one can represent capacity reserve constraints, mutually exclusive and interdependent projects, and both integer and continuous investment decisions.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative overview of existing energy system models to see whether they are suitable for analysing energy, environment and climate change policies of developing countries. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews the available literature and follows a systematic comparative approach to achieve its purpose. Findings – The paper finds that the existing energy system models inadequately capture the developing country features and the problem is more pronounced with econometric and optimisation models than with accounting models. Originality/value – Inaccurate representation of energy systems in the models can lead to inaccurate decisions and poor policy prescriptions. Thus, the paper helps policy makers and users to be aware of the possible pitfalls of various energy system models.
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Literature is replete with both top–down and bottom–up energy policy models developed for addressing various policy and planning concerns in developed countries. These models provide a good starting point for analyzing certain issues in the modern industries of developing countries, like improvement of operations, impact of technology mix, and effects of certain aspects of privatization. However, their capability for enabling a comprehensive policy analysis for developing countries is limited. This is because they lack in their representation of characteristics that are specific to developing economies. Policy priorities of equity and sustainability, existence of a large traditional sector, transition of population from traditional to modern markets, on-going major changes in the regulatory and competitive structure of energy industries, existence of multiple social and economic barriers to capital flow and technological diffusion, likelihood of huge investments in energy supply over next few decades, long-term uncertainties in domestic policy regime, and importance of decentralized energy planning are examples of characteristics that are specific to most developing economies. Such features need to be explicitly addressed in energy policy models in order to enable a meaningful policy analysis for developing countries. Additionally, results from a variety of models need to be considered by policy makers of developing countries in order to assess robustness of their decisions.
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This paper includes a review of the different computer tools that can be used to analyse the integration of renewable energy. Initially 68 tools were considered, but 37 were included in the final analysis which was carried out in collaboration with the tool developers or recommended points of contact. The results in this paper provide the information necessary to identify a suitable energy tool for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy-systems under different objectives. It is evident from this paper that there is no energy tool that addresses all issues related to integrating renewable energy, but instead the ‘ideal’ energy tool is highly dependent on the specific objectives that must be fulfilled. The typical applications for the 37 tools reviewed (from analysing single-building systems to national energy-systems), combined with numerous other factors such as the energy-sectors considered, technologies accounted for, time parameters used, tool availability, and previous studies, will alter the perception of the ‘ideal’ energy tool. In conclusion, this paper provides the information necessary to direct the decision-maker towards a suitable energy tool for an analysis that must be completed.
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For an economically and ecologically optimised integration of fluctuating renewable power generation (especially wind power) into electricity generation, a detailed consideration of fluctuation-induced effects on the existing power system is essential. A model-based approach is introduced in this paper, which comprehensively analyses the impact of such effects on power plant scheduling and facilitates their integration into the development of strategies for an optimised evolution of the future power system structure. The newly developed Aeolius tool for the simulation of power plant scheduling is described. In a combined analysis of long- and short-term effects it is used together with the multi-periodic cost-optimising energy system model PERSEUS-CERT. Based on the Matlab/Simulink® package, Aeolius considers the challenges for plant scheduling down to a time scale of 10 min. Special attention is paid to the provision of stand-by capacities and control power, as well as intermediate storage. Thus, a sophisticated quantification of the actual (net) benefits of wind power feed-in is achieved. Model results for Germany show that wind mainly substitutes power from intermediate-load and base-load plants (coal-, lignite-, and nuclear-fired). However, the required provision of stand-by capacities and control power does not only limit the substitution of conventional capacities, but also the achievable net savings of fuel and emissions in conventional power generation.
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In this first part of a two-part article, the principal characteristics of the TIMES model and of its global incarnation as ETSAP-TIAM are presented and discussed. TIMES was conceived as a descendent of the MARKAL and EFOM paradigms, to which several new features were added to extend its functionalities and its applicability to the exploration of energy systems and the analysis of energy and environmental policies. The article stresses the technological nature of the model and its economic foundation and properties. The article stays at the conceptual and practical level, while a companion article is devoted to the more detailed formulation of TIMES equations. Special sections are devoted to the description of four optional features of TIMES: lumpy investments, endogenous technology learning, stochastic programming, and the climate module. The article ends with a brief description of recent applications of the ETSAP-TIAM model.
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This paper aims to assess the level of integration of the South West Europe regional electricity spot markets created under the initiative launched by the European Regulators Group for Electricity and Gas and essential to comply with the targets set in the Florence Regulatory Forum. Due to geographical conditions, the integration of the European South-West regional electricity spot market relies on the physical interconnection between two pairs of Transmission Systems: Portugal-Spain and Spain-France. Development of the interconnection capacity between Portugal and Spain has been pursued, while between France and Spain the existing interconnection capacity is considered to be a critical factor to ensure integration. Electricity spot market integration was evaluated by correlating day-ahead hourly spot electricity prices (from 1st of January 2009 to the 31st December 2011) in each pair of spot markets (Portugal-Spain, France-Spain, Portugal-France). Additionally Granger-cause and impulse response analysis were made. The current electricity market integration between Portugal and Spain was found to be high. France and Spain were found to have poor electricity market integration, which justifies the European Union to support the investment in the development of new interconnections. The weak level of integration between Spain and France was confirmed by the Granger-causality and impulse response analysis. Six days are required to observer a small positive effect on the Spanish electricity spot market after a shock in the French one. The Portuguese and Spanish systems, that is to say MIBEL markets, are well integrated leading to the conclusion that the Price Coupling mechanism is efficient and contributes to the integration of spot electricity markets. However this mechanism is absent between MIBEL and EPEX and as demonstrated, there is a weak integration level between these spot electricity markets.
Conference Paper
This paper aims to assess the level of integration of the Central-West Europe (CWE: Germany - EEX, France - Powernext, the Netherlands - APX, Belgium - BPX and Luxembourg) regional electricity spot markets created under the initiative launched by the European Regulators Group for Electricity and Gas and essential to comply with the targets set in the Florence Regulatory Forum. As always, the integration of the European Central-West regional electricity spot markets relies on the physical interconnection between the transmission systems. Development of interconnection capacities within the region has been pursued as reported by the different Transmission System Operators, recognising that interconnection capacity is considered to be a critical factor to ensure market integration. Electricity spot market integration in the CWE region was appraised by assessing day-ahead spot electricity prices (from 1st of January 2007 to the 31st December 2012) in each spot market. Taking into consideration the adoption of the market coupling mechanism between EEX and the trilateral Pow ern ext, APX and BPX on the 9th of November 2010, a structural break in the data was evaluated through Granger-cause and impulse response analysis undertaken based on econometric models. To the best of our knowledge this approach is the first to perform a detailed analysis grounded on several econometric models to trace the effects of the introduction of the market coupling mechanism.
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To analyze the challenge of large-scale integration of renewables during the next decades, we present a conceptual power system model that bridges the gap between long term investment allocation and short-term system operation decisions. It integrates dynamic investments in generation, transmission and storage capacities as well as short-term variability and spatial distribution of supply and demand in a single intertemporal optimization framework. Large-scale grid topology, power flow distributions and storage requirements are determined endogenously. Results obtained with a three region model application indicate that adequate and timely investments in transmission and storage capacities are of great importance. Delaying these investments, which are less costly than investments in generation capacities, leads to system-wide indirect effects, such as non-optimal siting of renewable generation capacities, decreasing generation shares of renewables, increasing residual emissions and hence higher overall costs.
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This article summarises findings from a review of eighteen large-scale post-carbon transition strategies, from government and non-government sources. It is informed by analysis of policies and reports identifying one or more integrated pathways for achieving dramatic greenhouse gas emissions reductions within national or supranational jurisdictions. For each strategy we considered assumptions and priorities regarding: targets, technology; economics and financing; equity; governance; and social and political change. We describe lessons from analysis of these attempts to articulate and stimulate integrated actions for post-carbon transitions and point to areas for further exploration. A crucial difference was identified between strategies advocating an incremental and evolutionary approach to emissions reductions and those advocating more rapid and transformational change. This highlights the challenging and urgent task of understanding how to bridge the gap between physical requirements of action to prevent runaway climate change and societal support for action at that speed and scale.
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The design of transition pathways for sustainable electricity systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires the use of energy modeling tools that are able to account for two key aspects: the evolution of fossil fuels and technology prices, and the natural dynamics of renewable resources. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used focus on only one of these two aspects, which hinders their suitability for performing long-term analysis with high penetrations of renewable energy sources. This paper presents a modeling framework that is able to optimize the investment in new renewable generation capacity on the long-term while taking into account the hourly dynamics of electricity supply and demand. The framework combines two of the most used energy planning tools, each able to account for one of the aspects of the modeling of energy systems. The framework was applied to continental Portugal for the time period of 2005–2050, in order to identify optimal investment plans in new renewable and fossil generation capacity with the goal of achieving significant CO2 emissions reduction, under different scenarios. The results show that the inclusion of dynamics in the modeling methodology can help avoid overinvestment and reduce the excess of electricity from renewable energy sources that cannot be used by the system. These results can have a significant impact on the design of a sustainable electricity system and may lead to a diversification of the energy sources used.
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In this paper we present a soft-linking methodology that employs detailed simulation outputs from a dedicated power systems model to gain insights and understanding of the generation electricity plant portfolio results for the electricity sector from a separate energy systems model. We apply the methodology and present and discuss the results. The motivation for this soft-linking is to provide a transfer of information from the power systems model strong points to the energy systems model and use this information to improve and develop understanding of energy systems model results. Part of this motivation is derived from a view that one specific energy modeling tool cannot address all aspects of the full energy system in great detail and greater insights and progress can be gained by drawing on the strengths of multiple modeling tools rather than trying to incorporate them all into one comprehensive model. The methodology takes an optimized generation portfolio for a specific year from an energy systems model and undertakes a detailed high resolution chronological simulation of the same portfolio in the power systems model with added degrees of technical detail. Results presented here show that in the absence of key technical constraints, an energy systems model can potentially undervalue flexible resources, underestimate wind curtailment and overestimate the use of baseload plant.
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Increasing penetration of fluctuating energy sources for electricity generation, heating, cooling and transportation increase the need for flexibility of the energy system to accommodate the fluctuations of these energy sources. Controlling production, controlling demand and utilising storage options are the three general categories of measures that may be applied for ensuring balance between production and demand, however with fluctuating energy sources, options are limited, and flexible demand has also demonstrated limited perspective. This article takes its point of departure in an all-inclusive 100% renewable energy scenario developed for the Danish city Aalborg based on wind power, bio-resources and low-temperature geothermal heat. The article investigates the system impact of different types of energy storage systems including district heating storage, biogas storage and electricity storage. The system is modelled in the energy systems analyses model energyPRO with a view to investigating how the different storages marginally affect the amount of wind power that may be integrated applying the different storage options and the associated economic costs. Results show the largest system impact but also most costly potential are in the form of electricity storages.
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This work assesses the retrofit potential of existing Portuguese fossil fuel power plants with post-combustion CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology. The Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) was used to provide a systematic techno-economic analysis of the cost of emission control equipment, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and other key parameters which may change when CCS is implemented at a fossil fuel power plant. The results indicate that CCS requires a large capital investment and significantly increases the levelized cost of electricity. However, the economic viability of CCS increases with higher CO2 prices. The breakeven CO2 price for plants with and without CCS was estimated at $85–$140/t of CO2 depending on the technical parameters of the individual plants.
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Integrated Assessment models, widely applied in climate change mitigation research, show that renewable energy sources (RES) play an important role in the decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, the representation of relevant technologies in those models is highly stylized, thereby omitting important information about the variability of electricity demand and renewables supply. We present a power system model combining long time scales of climate change mitigation and power system investments with short-term fluctuations of RES. Investigating the influence of increasingly high temporal resolution on the optimal technology mix yields two major findings: the amount of flexible natural gas technologies for electricity generation rises while the share of wind energy only depends on climate policy constraints. Furthermore, overall power system costs increase as temporal resolution is refined in the model, while mitigation costs remain unaffected.
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Portugal is faced with important challenges concerning the definition of policies to achieve energy and environmental targets, taking also into account the economic and social issues. A multi-sectoral economy–energy–environment model has been developed to perform a prospective analysis of the changes in the economic structure and the energy system, as well as to assess the corresponding environmental impacts, providing decision support in policy making. This model is a multi-objective linear programming model that allows for the explicit consideration of distinct axes of evaluation, generally conflicting and non-commensurate, of the merit of distinct policies. The policy recommendations obtained are subject to the inherent uncertainty associated with the model coefficients and, therefore, they may not be robust in face of changes of the input data. The specification of less energy or carbon-intensive technologies is done by considering pollutant/energy coefficients defined as intervals. This analysis is crucial for understanding the role of technology in carbon mitigation efforts and other energy system planning settings, allowing to explore the effects of distinct policies on the total system costs, the fuel and technology mix, and the levels of greenhouse gases and other emissions.
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The needs that an energy supply system must meet are constantly changing, due to technological, social and political reasons. Effective energy planning is a dynamic process that is repeated periodically and adjusts to changing conditions. Energy decision makers and planners are no longer able to rely on inductive decision making since they have to investigate the effect of various decision parameters and possible future changes. To help in this process, models have been developed where estimates of future load growth, candidate power plants, fuels and other key factors can be introduced, from which the planners can evaluate decision parameters and the available alternatives. The paper presents the different methodologies and practices that are used by 11 energy models for energy demand forecasting, supply side management and generation expansion planning, demand side management and integrated resource planning. The paper concludes to the presentation of a strategic appraisal of the examined energy models appropriate for energy planning in Mozambique. Three models are proposed for conducting demand forecasting, generation expansion planning and demand side management. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand. This paper presents an extension of the TIMES energy planning tool for investment decisions in electricity production that considers seasonal, daily and hourly supply and demand dynamics. The inclusion of these dynamics enables the model to produce more accurate results in what concerns the impact of introducing energy efficiency policies and the increased use of renewable energies. The model was validated in São Miguel (Azores, Portugal) for the years 2006-2009, where a comparison with real data showed that the model can simulate the supply and demand dynamics. Further, the long-term analysis shows that the inclusion of these dynamics contributes to a better assessment of the renewable energy potential, suggests the postponement of investments in new generation capacity, and demonstrates that using fine time resolution modeling is very valuable for the design of effective policy measures under high renewable penetration energy systems.
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Portugal is a country with an energy system highly dependent on oil and gas imports. Imports of oil and gas accounted for 85% of the country's requirements in 2005 and 86% in 2006. Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the total primary energy consumption was only 14% in 2006. When focusing only on electricity production, the situation is somewhat better. The share of RES in gross electricity production varies between 20% and 35% and is dependent on the hydropower production in wet and dry years. This paper presents, on a national scale, Portugal's energy system planning and technical solutions for achieving 100% RES electricity production. Planning was based on hourly energy balance and use of H2RES software. The H2RES model provides the ability to integrate various types of storages into energy systems in order to increase penetration of the intermittent renewable energy sources or to achieve a 100% renewable island, region or country. The paper also represents a stepping-stone for studies offering wider possibilities in matching and satisfying electricity supply in Portugal with potential renewable energy sources. Special attention has been given to intermittent sources such as wind, solar and ocean waves that can be coupled to appropriate energy storage systems charged with surplus amounts of produced electricity. The storage systems also decrease installed power requirements for generating units. Consequently, these storages will assist in avoiding unnecessary rejection of renewable potential and reaching a sufficient security of energy supply.
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Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.
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The paper presents the ability of different energy systems and regulation strategies to integrate wind power. The ability is expressed by the following three factors: the degree of electricity excess production caused by fluctuations in wind and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) heat demands, the ability to utilise wind power to reduce CO2 emission in the system, and the ability to benefit from exchange of electricity on the market. Energy systems and regulation strategies are analysed in the range of a wind power input from 0 to