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Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling
... Most often, such models are partial equilibrium models [16]. This group includes PRIMES [17][18][19], POLES [20,21] PLEXOS [19,22], MARKAL [23,24], EFOM, MESSAGE [19,20] and TIMES [25][26][27][28][29], which is an integrated system of MARKAL-EFOM models developed within the framework of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). These models are most frequently used to determine the optimal energy mix [30]. ...
... The TIMES-PL model of the Polish energy system was used in this study. It was built with the use of the TIMES model generator, which has found applications in many projects around the world as a tool used to analyze energy systems at various temporal and spatial scales, from local [44] and national [26,28,45,46] to global [47,48]. Such a wide range of applications and such a well-described and verified methodology are undoubtedly its great advantages [49,50]. ...
The Polish power system has been reducing its impact on the environment for a long time, mainly through modernization and investments in new generation capacities, including renewable energy technologies. However, its starting point is still more difficult compared to other less coal-dependent power systems in the European Union. The study was conducted in the direction of optimizing the Polish energy mix of electricity generation from the perspective of 2050. Two energy scenarios for the possible transformation of the Polish power system towards achieving at least a 95% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 with an increasing share of renewables were analyzed. The study was carried out with the use of the TIMES-PL model, which minimizes the total system cost over the analyzed time horizon. The model was calibrated according to data from 2018. The two scenarios show relatively similar pathways for CO2 emission reductions by 2050. In the case of no investment in nuclear power plants, power plants equipped with CO2 capture and storage systems are an alternative solution for achieving climate neutrality and increasing national energy security.
... Portugal has taken a strong international stance on decarbonizing its economy and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 [99]. This goal aligns with the Paris Agreement, reflecting Portugal's commitment to the global effort of limiting temperature increases [100]. The country has set a target to phase out coal in energy production by 2023 [101]. ...
... aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 [99]. This goal aligns with the Paris Agreement, reflecting Portugal's commitment to the global effort of limiting temperature increases [100]. The country has set a target to phase out coal in energy production by 2023 [101]. ...
Fossil fuels, especially coal, contribute to carbon emissions, hindering the EU’s decarbonization goal by 2050. This article proposes converting the Pego Coal Power Plant into a biomass plant as a potential solution. Biomass, a renewable resource abundant in Portugal, can transform the Pego plant into a sustainable energy source, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change. It also reduces rural fire risks and ensures regional social and economic stability. The study explores the feasibility, limitations, and socioeconomic impacts of this scenario. This solution prevents plant closure, reduces environmental impacts, and promotes sustainability. Aligning with Portugal’s 2030 Agenda and global climate change efforts, converting the Pego plant serves as a valuable example of renewable resource utilization for climate change mitigation and regional stability. The study’s results offer insights for policymakers and stakeholders in developing sustainable energy transition strategies. Adopting such solutions can help countries achieve decarbonization goals while promoting social and economic development.
... Energy system models are widely used to understand the complexity of a region's or country's energy system and to provide insights on the development of policies to restructure towards a low-emissions economy. Many studies have used this modelling framework to evaluate options for cost-effective low-carbon energy systems with respect to the deep decarbonisation perspective [41,42,21,43,44]. Like many other energy systems models, TIMES is a partial equilibrium linear optimisation model, covering the entire energy system's technological details, imports, fuel production, and energy conversion and demand technologies. ...
... Like many other energy systems models, TIMES is a partial equilibrium linear optimisation model, covering the entire energy system's technological details, imports, fuel production, and energy conversion and demand technologies. The TIMES energy system modelling framework is built and maintained by the IEA's ETSAP [41,45]. TIMES model combines the Market Allocation Model (MARKAL) and Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM) models. ...
Deep decarbonisation pathways can enable the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia to reach a net-zero emissions reduction goal and contribute to global mitigation efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C by mid-century. This paper explores minimum cost solutions for achieving the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for NSW, using an Australian implementation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy system modelling framework. This paper investigated possible decarbonisation pathways and available technology options to reach the target. It includes both a higher emissions reference case scenario and a scenario implementing the NSW state government's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 under the NSW Climate Change Policy Framework, consistent with the international Paris Agreement on climate change, with available and viable well-developed technologies. The findings show that the NSW energy system can continue its shift from fossil fuels to renewables like solar, wind, and hydro and can entirely phase out coal- and gas-fired electricity generation by 2050. The deployment of zero-emissions technologies along with policy supports are crucial to achieving deep decarbonisation of the NSW economy by 2050. In addition, electrification and energy efficiency improvements play a significant role in the end-use sector's energy consumption reduction in the coming decades. This paper shows that the electricity sector is the dominant contributor to emission reductions up to the year 2030, while transport, buildings, and industry sectors are set to decarbonise later in the projection period (2030-2050) along this least-cost trajectory. However, the NSW government's aspirational target of net-zero emissions by 2050 can be achieved by 2039 by offsetting negative emissions.
... However, the high economy [40]. Portugal is considered by some authors, such as Amorim et al. (2014), as a country with high economic opportunities due to its proximity to Spain, which can be beneficial in terms of cost-benefits to achieve the decarbonization of the electricity sector [41]. Like other European countries, Portugal has committed to achieve its carbon neutrality by 2050, with 0% GHGs emissions [42]. ...
... However, the high economy [40]. Portugal is considered by some authors, such as Amorim et al. (2014), as a country with high economic opportunities due to its proximity to Spain, which can be beneficial in terms of cost-benefits to achieve the decarbonization of the electricity sector [41]. Like other European countries, Portugal has committed to achieve its carbon neutrality by 2050, with 0% GHGs emissions [42]. ...
Energy consumption is associated with economic growth, but it comes with a toll regarding the environment. Renewable energies can be considered substitutes for fossil fuels and may contribute to reducing the environmental degradation that the world is presently facing. With this research, we aimed to offer a broader view of the state-of-the-art in this field, particularly regarding coal and biomass. The main objective is to present a viable and sustainable solution for the coal power plants still in operation, using as a hypothetical example the Pego Power Plant, the last operating coal fueled power plant in Portugal. After the characterization of land use and energy production in Portugal, and more particularly in the Médio Tejo region, where the power plant is located, the availability of biomass was assessed and it was concluded that the volume of biomass needed to keep the Pego power plant working exclusively with biomass is much lower than the yearly growth volume of biomass in the region, which means that this transition would be viable in a sustainable way. This path is aligned with policies to fight climate change, since the use of biomass for energy is characterized by low levels of GHGs emissions when compared to coal. The risk of rural fires would be reduced, and the economic and social impact for this region would be positive.
... améliorations relevées dans le travail de A. Djemaa [99]. Toutes ces fonctionnalités font de TIMES un générateur de modèles dont le périmètre géographique peut varier d'une localité au monde entier [103], [63], [104], [105], [106], [107]- [111]. Il se base sur une représentation technologique détaillée du système énergétique allant de l'import ou de l'extraction de la ressource primaire à la consommation finale par secteur. ...
... Elles sont caractérisées par une efficacité de 80%. Le temps de décharge63 de ces dernières peut varier de quelques heures à des dizaines d'heures. Pour calibrer le facteur de capacité maximal au cours d'une journée et la production minimale annuelle, nous nous appuyons sur les données de l'ENTSO-E et de l'IRENA. ...
L’électricité tient indéniablement une place prépondérante dans les sociétés modernes. Elle constitue un des moteurs de la croissance économique et innombrables sont aujourd’hui les usages finaux dépendant des flux d’électrons. Face aux défis du changement climatique, différents objectifs à moyen ou long terme servent à guider l’action politique vers la décarbonisation du mix de production électrique majoritairement fossile. L’évolution du mix européen en particulier est marquée par l’intégration d’une part croissante de moyens renouvelables intermittents. La forte dépendance climatique de ce mode de production, vouée à croître dans le futur, soulève néanmoins des questions sur l’opération du système électrique. Comment la forte interdépendance entre les systèmes interconnectés évoluera-t-elle face à la distribution géographique variable de la production intermittente ? Quels sont les besoins de flexibilité/de coopération associés à cette évolution ? Dans quelle mesure l’incertitude climatique pourrait-elle affecter les objectifs de long terme ? A travers la modélisation prospective des systèmes énergétiques, il est possible d’identifier sur un horizon temporel fini et sous diverses contraintes, une architecture optimale des flux de commodités et des technologies (actuelles et futures) conduisant à une satisfaction de la demande finale à un coût total minimal. Dans le cadre de systèmes interconnectés incluant de la production renouvelable, cette exploration à long terme est rendue plus complexe du fait de la variabilité climatique et des différentes formes d’incertitudes induites. Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre du projet Clim2Power regroupant 12 équipes de recherche à travers toute l’Europe et visant à traduire des données de projections climatiques en données opérationnelles pour les différents acteurs du secteur électrique. Nous y développons un nouveau modèle d’optimisation bottom-up de type MARKAL TIMES du système électrique européen (eTIMES-EU). Il réalise une description détaillée de son infrastructure et de son fonctionnement infra-journalier servant à discuter son évolution à long terme. A travers celui-ci, nous proposons une approche originale pour traiter de l’incidence de la variabilité climatique sur la demande électrique, les ressources solaires, éoliennes et hydrauliques dans des scénarios contrastés portant sur le mix électrique européen à l'horizon 2050. Ces scénarios, formulés autour de différents niveaux d’engagement dans la décarbonisation, intègrent des hypothèses sur les niveaux de demande futurs, la disponibilité des technologies, l’utilisation des interconnexions et les politiques nationales face aux moyens charbon et nucléaire. Nous proposons de plus une approche numérique qui traite de la résolution des problèmes multi-régions. Elle permet, grâce à la relaxation lagrangienne, de traiter des sous problèmes équivalents plus faciles à résoudre et fournissant une heuristique dans la résolution du problème global.
... As electrical power generation accounts for 54.04% of the CO2 emission in Malaysia [1], thus it is vital to explore unconventional pathways to reduce the carbon footprint of the power sector. Related studies to long term decarbonisation of the total energy system or specifically for the power sector has been conducted at regional, national and local level, as demonstrated by C. Jägemann et al (2013) for Europe [2], F. Amorim et al (2014) for Portugal [3], K. Tigas et al (2015) for Greece [4] and C. Yang et al (2015) for California [5]. The main goal of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to decarbonize its power sector by 2050 by simulating the implementation of nuclear or renewable fuel diversification policies in the referenced energy system (RES) as depicted in R. Haiges et al (2017) [6] with the ultimate aim to lower the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. ...
... As electrical power generation accounts for 54.04% of the CO2 emission in Malaysia [1], thus it is vital to explore unconventional pathways to reduce the carbon footprint of the power sector. Related studies to long term decarbonisation of the total energy system or specifically for the power sector has been conducted at regional, national and local level, as demonstrated by C. Jägemann et al (2013) for Europe [2], F. Amorim et al (2014) for Portugal [3], K. Tigas et al (2015) for Greece [4] and C. Yang et al (2015) for California [5]. The main goal of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to decarbonize its power sector by 2050 by simulating the implementation of nuclear or renewable fuel diversification policies in the referenced energy system (RES) as depicted in R. Haiges et al (2017) [6] with the ultimate aim to lower the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. ...
The importance of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to achieve a low carbon power sector by 2050 through the implementation of unconventional fuel diversification policies. The Integrated Market Allocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model System (TIMES) was deployed to model the three tested scenarios, namely the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the nuclear (NUC2) scenario in which the 2.00 GW nuclear power is added to the reference energy system, and the renewable plus storage (RNW6S7) scenario that integrated 6 renewable technologies with 7 days of pump hydro storage capacity. An economic assessment on two baseload power plants is included to evaluate the investment viability. The results indicated that the BAU and NUC2 scenario are unsustainable as the dependency on fossil fuel for electrical power generation by 2050 is still high at 71.92% and 66.83% respectively. Contrariwise, the RNW6S7 scenario revealed a low carbon profile for power generation in Malaysia by 2050, whereby the emissions have declined to a minimum level of 11,490 kt which is equivalent to 92.45% of avoided CO2 in contrast to the BAU levels. The low carbon state is attained due to 98.37% of the generation output is renewable electricity. Finally, the RNW6S7 scenario demonstrated that the CO2 emissions in 2030 will drop by 46.22% relative to the 2005 levels which from the power sector perspective surpassed the Paris Agreement targets.
... As electrical power generation accounts for 54.04% of the CO2 emission in Malaysia [1], thus it is vital to explore unconventional pathways to reduce the carbon footprint of the power sector. Related studies to long term decarbonisation of the total energy system or specifically for the power sector has been conducted at regional, national and local level, as demonstrated by C. Jägemann et al (2013) for Europe [2], F. Amorim et al (2014) for Portugal [3], K. Tigas et al (2015) for Greece [4] and C. Yang et al (2015) for California [5]. The main goal of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to decarbonize its power sector by 2050 by simulating the implementation of nuclear or renewable fuel diversification policies in the referenced energy system (RES) as depicted in R. Haiges et al (2017) [6] with the ultimate aim to lower the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. ...
... As electrical power generation accounts for 54.04% of the CO2 emission in Malaysia [1], thus it is vital to explore unconventional pathways to reduce the carbon footprint of the power sector. Related studies to long term decarbonisation of the total energy system or specifically for the power sector has been conducted at regional, national and local level, as demonstrated by C. Jägemann et al (2013) for Europe [2], F. Amorim et al (2014) for Portugal [3], K. Tigas et al (2015) for Greece [4] and C. Yang et al (2015) for California [5]. The main goal of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to decarbonize its power sector by 2050 by simulating the implementation of nuclear or renewable fuel diversification policies in the referenced energy system (RES) as depicted in R. Haiges et al (2017) [6] with the ultimate aim to lower the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. ...
The importance of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to achieve a low carbon power sector by 2050 through the implementation of unconventional fuel diversification policies. The Integrated Market Allocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model System (TIMES) was deployed to model the three tested scenarios, namely the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the nuclear (NUC2) scenario in which the 2.00 GW nuclear power is added to the reference energy system, and the renewable plus storage (RNW6S7) scenario that integrated 6 renewable technologies with 7 days of pump hydro storage capacity. An economic assessment on two baseload power plants is included to evaluate the investment viability. The results indicated that the BAU and NUC2 scenario are unsustainable as the dependency on fossil fuel for electrical power generation by 2050 is still high at 71.92% and 66.83% respectively. Contrariwise, the RNW6S7 scenario revealed a low carbon profile for power generation in Malaysia by 2050, whereby the emissions has declined to a minimum level of 11,490 kt which is equivalent to 92.45% of avoided CO2 in contrast to the BAU levels. The low carbon state is attained due to 98.37% of the generation output is renewable electricity. Finally, the RNW6S7 scenario demonstrated that the CO2 emissions in 2030 will drop by 46.22% relative to the 2005 levels which from the power sector perspective surpassed the Paris Agreement targets.
... Over the years, TIMES has shown itself to be a reliable framework for examining the dynamic transformation of the energy system. It has been applied in many studies for national-level energy system analysis, such as Switzerland [16]ambitious carbon dioxide (CO2 and Portugal [17]combined with new generating technologies, we evaluate its importance by modelling the Portuguese system either as an isolated or as part of an integrated Iberian system. To design the low carbon roadmap for 2050 in Portugal, TIMES -The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM (MARKet ALlocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model. ...
Nigeria's Vision 30-30-30 (V30) outlines an ambitious goal of incorporating 13.8 GW of renewable energy (RE), a 30% share of the total electricity generation capacity mix, by 2030. However, there are still some challenges to be overcome before the full realization of this vision. In this paper, we examine some of these challenges from the technical, environmental, and economic perspectives and outline policy recommendations to facilitate the realization of this energy vision. From a technical perspective, we examine the voltage profiles at different stages of RE intake to demonstrate a compelling technical case for RE integration. Our analysis suggests that the Nigerian electricity grid will require massive infrastructure investments and smart controls to maintain system security. From an environmental perspective, aggressively pursuing V30 will reduce CO2 emissions by ~12% and substantially decrease air pollutants in 2030. From an economic perspective, massive market reforms are required to attract investments. We estimate that an additional 24% increase in average annual investment is required to make V30 a reality. Our model projects that achieving V30 will increase market revenue from on-grid generation by ~146% in 2030. Finally, we propose robust financing models and highlight policy reforms needed to establish a competitive electricity market.
... Numerous studies looking at the socio-economic optimality of power planning have focused on using cost optimization models like MESSAGE, MARKAL, TIMES, etc. (see, for example, Refs. [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33]). The strategic planning of power planning systems, on the other hand, inevitably incorporates several competing objectives [34][35][36]. ...
The ever-increasing demand for electricity, as well as its impact on the environment, necessitates expanding the power generation mix of Nigeria by utilizing sustainable energy sources. Power generation planning that is sustainable and efficient must meet various objectives, many of which conflict with one another. Using multi-objective optimization, a model for Nigeria's power supply architecture was developed to integrate indigenous energy sources for a sustainable power generation mix. The model has three conflicting objectives: reducing power generating costs, reducing CO 2 emissions, and increasing jobs. Hybrid Structural Interaction Matrix was utilized to compute the weights of the three objectives for the multi-objective model to be modified into a single-objective model. According to the simulations, Nigeria could address its power supply deficit by generating up to 2,100 TWh of power by 2050. Over the projected period, large hydropower plants and solar PV will be the leading option for Nigeria's power generation mix. Furthermore, power generation from solar thermal, incinerator , nuclear, gas plant, combined plant, and diesel engine will all be part of the power supply mix by 2050. In terms of jobs expected to be created, about 2.05 million jobs will be added by 2050 from the construction and operation of power generation plants. CO 2 emissions will attain 266 M t CO 2 by 2050. The cost of power generation will decline from a maximum of 36 billion US$ in 2030 to 27.1 billion US$ in 2050. Findings conclude that Nigeria can meet its power supply obligations by harnessing indigenous energy sources into an optimal power supply mix.
... In contrast to the previous studies that reviewed several countries, there were several studies conducted at national and sub-national levels in achieving their decarbonisation targets. However, these studies about Portugal (Amorim et al., 2014;Pina et al., 2013;Krajačić et al., 2011), China (Chen et al., 2020), Europe (van Zuijlen et al., 2019), and Fiji Island (Michalena et al., 2018) mainly focus on the technical aspect. A thorough review which not only looked at the technology aspect, but also policy was conducted by Capros et al. (Capros et al., 2014) and Knopf et al. (Knopf et al., 2013) for EU case study. ...
This study examines the transition of Indonesia's electricity system 2020–2050 to achieve Paris Agreement target using TIMES model. Three scenarios, including Reference Case, Current Policy, and Paris Agreement are reviewed. Reference case system will be 77% dominated by unabated coal power plant, and Current Policy will only reduce its share by 10% in 2050. Furthermore, the emissions from these scenarios are still half of estimated electricity emission in NDC due to different demand level between the policy target and current level indicating the ambition gap. Achieving well below 2°C long-term target, 50% of RE and 40% of IGCC-CCS in electricity production are needed. There will be 48% increase in investment compare to reference case and constant electricity production to current level. Uncertainty of carbon budget will not shift the emission peak or penetration of solar PV utility-scale, but will greatly affect the deployment time, as soon as 2030 or as later as 2040, and capacity of IGCC-CCS and the presence of BECCS up to 2050. Reform of Indonesia's electricity system needs to be carried out because of changes in technology and investment directions, the need to accelerate technological readiness, coupled with the current condition of market structure and electricity prices.
... Technical, economic, social, and environmental parameters are considered for decision-making assistance, even if they are dispersed, due to the complexity of the electricity sector. Optimization tools are used to respond to these requirements, such as EFOM, OREM, GAMS, HOMER, Ener-gyPLAN, ED, OseMOSYS, PLEXOS, MESSAGE, MARKAL, TIMES, LEAP, and MATLAB [86][87][88][89][90][91][92]. Methodologies used to model DR In the literature, models for decision-making combine different technical aspects and scenarios with RESs to evaluate DR programs in WEMs, microgrids, or DNs. ...
The energy transition has shown that fossil generation can be complemented with renewable energy and other resources capable of providing flexibility to the energy system's operation, in compliance with the wholesale electricity market's rules. This paper proposes a market-based methodology for introducing flexible demand in the energy dispatch , optimizing the scheduling of electricity system operation in the short-term, and considers the challenge of implementing an incentive scheme for participants in demand-response programs. The scheme includes the criteria of the elasticity of substitution and a renewable energy quota. This methodology is focused on a strategic demand shift to minimize the cost of supply; increase the dispatch of renewable energy; control CO2 emissions; and satisfy the generation, demand, and transmission operating constraints. These conditions encourage the development of a simulation tool that allows a sensitivity analysis to aid decision making by operators and agents. The proposed methodology optimizes the operational cost of generation supply and specific performance indicators to determine the percentages of demand shift, the amount of CO2 emissions, the ratio of unserved power, the demand benefits obtained from an incentive scheme, and the natural market behavior.
... Decarbonisation of energy has also been studied extensively both at country, regional, and global levels. Amorim et al. [32] investigated decarbonisation pathways to 2050 for the Portuguese electricity sector, with focus on the market structure. Although renewable energy developments are a key opportunity, impacts of climate change on supply are not considered. ...
Understanding the impact of climate change on renewable energy resources is increasingly vital as our energy systems transition towards higher levels of renewable generation. This paper explores power system transition under climate change impacts on hydro resources, as well as the impact of climate change on the cost of decarbonisation. An integrated energy systems assessment tool is used to investigate the impact of altered seasonal availability factors on the optimal energy investment pathways. The cost of decarbonisation is assessed under climate change impact on the hydro resources, as well as the impact of discount rate assumptions on the total cost of decarbonisation. Results show that in the case of New Zealand, more hydro will be available in winter due to climate change, but less in summer, which is compensated for with increased solar capacity. Decarbonisation in New Zealand sees a major transformation in the transport sector, supported by a relatively moderate increase in overall demand in the electricity sector. While climate change impact on the hydro resource may reduce the total cost of decarbonisation in New Zealand, this cannot be generalised, as these impacts vary across countries and regions.
... Some studies combine several models to obtain deeper sectoral insights and analyse the effects on the wider economy [32][33][34]. Others focus on a single sector independently of whether the model includes only the sector [35][36][37][38][39] or the whole energy system [40][41][42]. Representing the whole energy system is important when analysing decarbonisation pathways as it allows the representation of trade-offs between sectors under resource constraints [16]. ...
This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.
... In Tables 1 and 2 [307] utilized a model to find the optimum generation expansion planning of the Southeast Asian countries. Amorim et al. [308] applied TIMES model for electricity application in Portugal up to 2050. Poncelet et al. [309] utilized TIMES model to assess the effect of employing longterm models with low time-based resolution. ...
Energy is the most important part for community and financial growth of any country. Energy planning models play a vital role in strategy formulation and power sector progress. In this paper a systematic review and comparison of energy planning models developed and applied from 1977-2019 has been presented. The review indicates that most of the energy planning models has been presented and applied in developed nations. Only few numbers of energy planning models have been presented and applied in under developing countries. The review also shows the comparison of energy planning models applied in developed and under-developed countries. This review article will assistance the energy managers, scholars and strategy makers broadly.
... For examples, the cross border Swiss TIMES electricity model (CROSSTEM) has been used to study the impacts of a nuclear phase out under different scenarios for lowcarbon electricity generation in Switzerland and its neighbouring countries [37] . The Portugal TIMES model has also been applied to analyse the cost-optimal pathway for Portugal to realise 100% decarbonisation of its electricity supply system by 2050 [38] . A key characteristic of the TIMES model is its systematic approach to dealing with uncertainties. ...
An attempt has been made using a bottom-up model to examine business-as-usual and 100% renewable electricity generation scenarios for Nigeria. Results indicate that Nigeria can achieve 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050 with the deployment of a mix of renewable energy technologies, especially utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind turbines. CO2 emissions are expected to peak by 2030 and decline to zero in 2050. In terms of total system cost, a transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2050 is a cheaper option compared to the conventional pathway, and it could potentially create around 1.54 million jobs for Nigerians by 2050
... The results suggested that governments should not plan their energy system development in isolation but communicate with affected countries to increase the efficiency and decrease costs. Thus, the transmission infrastructure is expected to play a crucial role in the future [6]. ...
As energy systems will increasingly become renewable, they will face new challenges that mainly arise due to the varying output by many renewable energy technologies. An issue that is especially prominent for countries with high shares of hydropower in their electricity generation is the varying yearly output of these technologies. This work aims to propose a techno-economically optimized energy system for such a country, using Portugal as example. For this purpose the current situation is analyzed and an energy demand model for 2050 created. The energy system is optimized for years with different outputs of hydropower to analyze the system’s behavior using the simulation tool EnergyPLAN. As the tool does not possess inherent optimization capabilities it was coupled with the gray wolf optimization algorithm using Matlab. Subsequently, a system is proposed that is able to cover Portugal’s expected energy demand under all circumstances. The future system will rely strongly on wind and solar power as they are
expected to cover around 75% of Portugal’s electricity demand. Furthermore, the analysis showed that Portugal needs to build up electrolyzer capacities of 4.2 GW and SynGas capacities of 2.4 GW as the SynGas will be used to balance supply in demand, especially in years with lower hydropower output. The system’s cost will be between 22 and 35% cheaper than the created reference model. Furthermore, the primary energy demand is expected to decrease from 253 TWh to around 150 TWh while the electricity demand rises from 49 TWh to around 110 TWh.
... Long-term energy planning models have been carried out for different countries around the globe, exploring different objectives but with the goal of enhancing effective policy decision making (Amorim et al., 2014;Das et al., 2018;Foxon, 2013;Min, Ryu, Hyun, & Choi, 2017;Ouedraogo, 2017;Pina, Silva, & Ferrão, 2013, 2011Senatla, Nchake, Taele, & Hapazari, 2018;Zapata, Castaneda, Garces, Franco, & Dyner, 2018). Specific scientific research dedicated to Ghana in relation to future supply capacity model is limited and sporadic, particularly with regards to the introduction of RES and quantification of the cost for reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from electricity generation. ...
Ghana is one of the few countries within the sub-Saharan region which has been successful in reducing energy poverty. However, ensuring energy security, affordability, and environmental sustainability remains a significant challenge for the future development of the sub-region. Here, we examine how the electricity supply can evolve into the future to meet potential emission obligations for the period of 2020–2040. A generation expansion planning model which is able to incorporate the reality of fuel shortages and fuel switching typical of a developing country's power system is used. In doing so, we generate a range of emission reduction costs that provide important benchmarks for the relatively under-studied sub-Saharan region and identify drivers of these costs specific to developing countries. Results indicate that the total discounted cost in expanding generation to meet the demand for all scenarios range from 13–17 billion US$, while the expected emission ranges from 99–189 mtCO2. Subsequently, the cost of meeting different emission targets up to 2040 was quantified for each scenario ranging from 11–39 US$/tonne, which could be used as a benchmark for comparison in developed countries. We find that discount rates, representing Ghana's access to capital, are a particularly important variable for developing countries. We find that lower discount rates can lead to more investment in capital intensive renewable energy in the long run but can also lock in an additional conventional generation investment in the short term. Sensitivity analysis of demand growth reduction shows that with a 1% growth rate, the requirement of generation capacity could be reduced by 84%, providing initial evidence for the benefits of investing in demand-side measures. The study provides data and policy recommendations needed to inform decision-makers in developing countries as well as a comparison point for identifying decarbonization costs internationally.
... For example, Amorim et al. (2014) have used a TIMES approach to analyze possibilities to fully decarbonize electricity generation in Portugal by 2050, in order to contribute to a deep decarbonization of the Portuguese energy sector. To this end, two cases were considered: (1) the Portuguese generation sector is optimized as an isolated system, and (2) the latter is part of an integrated Iberian system (Portugal and Spain). ...
This chapter discusses how hydrogen can replace the traditional energy sources and it can make global transition possible to 100% renewable energy. It focuses on three different aspects namely; renewable energy sources, hydrogen production system using renewable energy sources in terms of electricity and thermal energy and the services and applications where hydrogen can be employed. A classification is made showing the types of the renewable energy sources and their applications for production of heat, electricity or fuel extracted from the described sources, hydrogen production methods from these commodities and usage of hydrogen in different industries. In the renewable hydrogen production methods section, a system for each renewable source is presented which can be integrated with the renewable energy source for hydrogen production. A case study is presented which uses the wind energy source for electricity production. A part of electricity is supplied to the community while remaining is employed to the proton exchange membrane electrolyser to produce hydrogen. The produced hydrogen is stored by passing through multistage compression system and stored in the storage tank. During the intervals of low wind speed, the stored hydrogen is fed to the proton exchange membrane fuel cell which produces electrical power and heat for the community. Numerous parametric studies are conducted to explore how designed case study operates under different conditions. This chapter covers all the renewable energy sources and presents the potential of implementing hydrogen as a source for the global transition to 100% renewable energy.
... For example, Amorim et al. (2014) have used a TIMES approach to analyze possibilities to fully decarbonize electricity generation in Portugal by 2050, in order to contribute to a deep decarbonization of the Portuguese energy sector. To this end, two cases were considered: (1) the Portuguese generation sector is optimized as an isolated system, and (2) the latter is part of an integrated Iberian system (Portugal and Spain). ...
Mathematical models of energy-economy-environmental systems (E3) provide a rational framework for exploring the effects of energy and climate policies and support adequate decision-making. Numerous models have been developed over the years with different solution approaches, features, geographical scope and time resolution. There is no complete or ideal models but different models that answer different questions or similar questions with different perspectives. Developed since the early 1980s, the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) optimization models have contributed to support decision-making at various geographical scales from global to city levels. In this Chapter, we distinguish a set of national studies that performed TIMES model developments to study the energy transition and address the impacts of integrating high levels of renewable energies on the system. Each study follows a different approach with the sole purpose to optimize the energy used in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Examples of applications are provided to illustrate the rich potential of optimization models for assisting decision makers with climate change mitigation. In particular, a special attention is given to the electricity sector as electrification of end-uses and decarbonization of the electricity sector are consistent priorities of actions across studies.
... The feasibility of regional energy trading, the diversification of the primary energy supply-mix, the implications of including additional renewable energy technologies into the energy system, and the identification of national/regional energy policies for the development of sustainable Selected national-scale applications of these models include: energy and emissions forecast for China [4], electricity supply assessment for South Africa [5], future technology choices for Bangladesh's power sector development [8], strategies to control GHG emissions in China [9], deep decarbonization pathways for Canada [10], benefits assessment of sectoral demand-side flexibility in the United Kingdom [11], German residential heat systems planning [12], electricity decarbonization pathways for Portugal [13], integration of household preferences for heating technologies in the United Kingdom [14], energy outlook to 2050 for Canada [15], multipollutant power sector policies for the U.S. [16], elasticities of substitution applied to incorporate transport modal shifts in Denmark [17], and 100% renewable and reliable power systems for Réunion Island, France [18]. ...
This paper develops a regional TIMES modelling framework for the electricity sector of the Eastern Nile Basin region, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, to assess the potential of energy trading for cross-border collaboration in this rapidly growing sector. Four alternative scenarios are developed for the 2014–2050 period to assess national and regional benefits of alternative energy development strategies. The study finds that electricity trading scenarios out-perform a reference scenario that assumes no energy trading, lowering systems cost by 4.5–7.2%. Total systems costs are lower, even when transmission costs for trade are considered. Costs are also lower with increased generation from renewables compared to investments without regional trade. Investing in renewables has important co-benefits, such as improved energy security and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Supporting energy trade not only reduces systems costs, but can also strengthen cooperation in the region, as reflected in the energy trading efforts of the East African Power Pool and the transboundary collaboration efforts of the Nile Basin Initiative.
... Mirzaesmaeeli et al. [4] developed a model with MILP framework for power generation planning to determine the optimal combination of energy supply mix and emission reduction measures for specified electricity demand and emission targets. Amorim et al. [5] used TIMES framework to analyze the cost effective opportunities to achieve decarbonization of power sector in isolated and interconnected system scenarios for Portugal by 2050. Past literature on carbon emission mitigation in power sector is summarized in Table 1. ...
Current electricity markets operate on a cost minimizing objective for power supply. However, countries across the world need to decarbonize their power systems in line with their policy objectives to mitigate climate change. In this context, this paper presents a framework to analyze synergies and trade-offs in cost and emission minimization strategies in the power sector. Emission minimizing objective can reduce emissions from existing fleets having flexibility in electricity supply, regardless of renewable energy capacity additions. This framework can also provide us with win-win strategies for reducing emissions while keeping costs low.
An optimization model is developed for case study of India with data of 568 coal and 199 gas thermal units to analyze alternative real time dispatch and operating strategies. The cost and emission optimal supply strategies are compared in terms of power plant operations, emission reductions, and resulting cost of carbon abatement. The results show that 9.8% of carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced with 19% increment in the cost of electricity in emission minimizing strategy with respect to cost minimization. The operations in emission optimal supply strategy require additional 28 million dollars per day. The cost of carbon abatement is 99–129 dollars per tonne.
... For instance, Refs. [22][23][24] investigate decarbonization pathways and the need for new investments in transmission capacities in South Korea, Portugal and Switzerland respectively using TIMES models. However, these studies do not consider regional differences and actor diversity within this sector. ...
The German energy supply sector is becoming diverse and dispersed due to the variety of actors investing in energy generation technologies and spatially variable renewable resources, which bring about increased heterogeneity in the investment decisions of actors. Therefore, the effective utilization of renewable resources towards a cost-optimal achievement of the "Energy Transition" goals is becoming more complex. We argue that addressing these complexities requires a method, which, in addition to a fine technological and regional characterization , takes into account the heterogeneity of the investment decisions of actors while optimizing the total system. This paper describes methodological improvements via the well-known energy system optimization model generator called The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (i.e. TIMES), which enhances the representation of the actors' investment realities regarding wind and photovoltaic technologies applied to the case of the German supply sector. Firstly, the actors are disaggregated by their main economic features, including cost of capital, representing their different investment valuations and budget restrictions. Then, Germany is divided into four regions to reflect the spatially variable renewable resources and electricity demand affecting actors' optimal decisions. Lastly, the grid development costs and losses are considered, especially for power transmission across the regions. The newly developed TIMES Actors Model (TAM) incorporating these improvements is then tested to separately study the impact of CO 2 taxes as a policy instrument and a national renewable quota as a target for the sector. The results showed that CO 2 taxes and renewable targets affect the system quite differently, specifically regarding the optimal role that actors are expected to play within regions to meet the objectives of energy transitions at least system costs as well as regarding the power transmission between the regions. By means of these findings, actors can be targeted more properly by actor-and region-specific policy instruments demonstrating which actor should invest where and into which technology, so that the energy transition can take place more quickly and at lower system costs. A comparison of the improved versus original versions of the model reveals the potential contribution of improving the representation of actors that have been so far overlooked in the energy system modelling practice.
... The model minimises the total discounted costs of deploying technologies required to cover energy service demands over a multi-decadal time horizon. It can be used to examine investment decisions and help evaluate how energy and environmental policies impact the energy sector [1,19,24,28,60,82]. ...
Hydropower plays a critical role in global, South American and Ecuadorian energy policy and for achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, long-term climatic changes may affect the role of hydropower in meeting energy and climate policy objectives. The effects of climate change on runoff availability for hydropower generation are largely uncertain. This paper uses climate change scenarios derived from a large ensemble of Global Circulation Models as input for an energy system optimisation model (TIMES-EC) to examine least-cost options for the hydropower-dominated Ecuadorian power system in the period to 2050. This is done in the context of three policy cases in order to assess trade-offs between power system configuration, emissions and costs. The results show that in the long-term hydropower will remain as one of the most cost-effective and low emission technologies in the Ecuadorian power sector. However, constraints on deployment and uncertainty around climate change impacts could hinder its ability to contribute to the fulfilment of NDC targets, as well as create uncertainty around long-term power system costs. Strategies to hedge against these risks will likely require that hydropower expansion be complemented by alternative sources, namely incremental shares of thermoelectric generation with natural gas, biomass and geo-thermal energy.
... It is the first time that such an in-depth analysis is conducted for Portugal. Other studies have analysed mitigation scenarios, both for the country as a whole [33,34] and only for the power sector [19,35,36]. None of these however have explored the interdependencies between GHG mitigation and electrification. ...
The deep decarbonisation of the power sector coupled with electrification of end-use sectors will be crucial towards a carbon neutral economy, as required to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal. Several studies have highlighted the relevance of electrification under deep decarbonisation. However, previous work does not explore what would be the major shifts towards electrification, i.e., in what economic activities it will likely occur and when up to 2050 considering gradually stricter GHG emissions constraints. This is of upmost relevance since relatively small variations in emission caps may trigger substantial modifications in specific components of the energy system, namely the shift for the electrification of a particular energy end-use, with impacts on the power sector's portfolio. In this paper, we analyse the extension of the electrification of the energy system as a cost-effective strategy for deep decarbonisation. We set a large number of increasingly stringent mitigation caps to assess: (i) the degree of electrification of different energy end-uses across all economic activities, (ii) the impact in power sector portfolio and costs and (iii) investment needs. The novelty of this paper relies on the anticipation of electrification of activities traditionally supplied by non-electricity energy carriers, by exploring when and how such transformation may occur in the future, and how much it would cost. We assess the case of Portugal till 2050 by using the TIMES_PT model to generate 50 increasingly stricter decarbonisation scenarios. In the long term, incremental changes (+1%) in more aggressive decarbonisation targets (beyond −70% reduction) induce substantial increase in the share of electrification growth rates. Electric private vehicles, electricity-based steam and heat production in ceramic industrial sector and heat pumps in buildings are the most cost-effective electric technologies. We found that a decarbonisation up to near −80% of 1990′s levels of the Portuguese energy system does not have a significant impact on the power sector unit costs, and does not surpass historic values for some years. However, it should be noted that incremental changes (+1%) in more aggressive decarbonisation targets may increase sharply electricity costs in 2050 (+9%). Thus, focusing in only few scenarios may narrow the role of electrification (or other mitigation options) and its associated costs for deep decarbonisation. This paper allows researchers, planners and decision makers to enhance awareness regarding the relevance and cost-effectiveness of electrification under decarbonisation, namely its feasibility and affordability, providing fruitful insights.
... The MARKAL (MARKet Allocation) and TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models are widely used to evaluate the impact of national, regional and global energy and environment policies as well as to perform techno-economic assessments. Selected national-scale applications of these models include: longterm energy and emissions forecast for China [19], electricity supply industry for South Africa [20], technology selection for Bangladesh power sector development [21], carbon emission control strategies for China [22], GHG mitigation and associated cost assessment of the French biofuel sector [23], residential heat system planning for Germany [24], electricity decarbonization pathways for Portugal [25], integration of household preferences for heating technologies in the UK [26], the Canadian energy outlook 2050 [27], and multi-pollutant policies for the United States' power sector [28]. Salient regional applications include: energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport [29], assessment of policy and technology mixes required to achieve long-term energy security and environmental sustainability growth of Sub-Saharan Africa [30], assessment of clean technologies for selected ASEAN countries [31]. ...
This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt's power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt's energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt's Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’ mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.
... To help policymakers, long-term models of Portugal have been used, for instance, to assess the impact of climate change on hydroelectric power generation [37], the impact of the carbon tax on investments in new generation technologies [38], and to evaluate decarbonization pathways for the energy system [39]. Portugal's electric system already has a high share of both renewable capacity (see Table 1) and generation e 58% and 48% respectively [31] e which confers to Portugal a position above the average within EU countries. ...
With the urge to decrease carbon emissions, electricity systems need to evolve to promote the integration of renewable resources and end-use energy efficiency. Demand Response (DR) can be used as a strategy, one among many, to improve the balance between demand and supply of electricity, especially in systems that rely heavily on variable energy renewable resources. Thus, it is important to understand up to what extent a countrywide system would cope with DR implementation.
In this work, the impact of demand response in the long-term is assessed, using a model of the Portuguese electricity system in the modeling tool OSeMOSYS. The theoretical potential of DR is computed to understand better the impact on the overall system planning, by analyzing three scenarios – a business as usual scenario, a carbon-free system scenario in 2050, and a scenario without heavy carbon emission restrictions.
DR impact in all three scenarios results in a decrease in the overall costs, on the capacity installed and in an increase in the percentage of renewable capacity. Further, an economic analysis showed that DR would take 15 years, on average, to influence the average electricity cost and that the reduction in total costs is mainly due to the avoided capacity investments.
... Additionally, they evaluate the impact of increased penetration of wind and solar generation in Texas on electricity prices and market dynamics [22]. To evaluate long-term decarbonization strategies for the Portuguese market, Amorim et al. employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM (MARKet ALlocation-Energy Flow Optimization Model), to fine least-cost investment strategies through 2050 [23]. Similar work was done by Pereira et al. in the Portuguese market using a 10-year, mixed integer model determining optimal integration of renewable energy sources [24]. ...
Electricity generation expansion planning models determine the optimal technology-capacity-investment strategy that minimizes market costs including investment costs, and fixed and variable operating & maintenance costs over a long-term planning horizon. From a market cost perspective, fossil fuels are among the most economical sources of electricity, and thus are the primary sources of energy for electricity. However, these energy sources create by-products that have harmful health effects upon exposure. In this paper, a simulation-based, metamodeling approach is leveraged to quantify health damages associated with power grid expansion decisions by linking the outputs of generation expansion planning simulations with a screening tool that quantifies the human health damages from the electricity sector. Using this as a surrogate function for health damages, these costs are included in the objective function of a generation expansion planning model, in addition to market costs and the social damages of carbon emissions and methane leakage to minimize societal damages. Applying an improvement algorithm, candidate data points are selected to enhance metamodel prediction capability. Finally, using an updated metamodel, a new expansion plan is found. This framework enables researchers to better understand the health implications of long-term capacity expansion decisions.
The circulating and ecological sphere (CES) concept promotes a self-reliant decentralised society by utilising regional resources to achieve decarbonisation. The concept is particularly relevant to depopulated areas across Japan facing a continuous increase of underutilised agricultural land that brings environmental, social and economic challenges. This study recognises such land as a locally available resource to be re-utilised under the CES framework and mitigate issues in a depopulating community. Using the case of the Hachinohe City Region in Japan, this paper explores alternative land-use scenarios and identifies policy interventions to implement a desirable scenario that would contribute to the localisation of Net-Zero and regional revitalisation. The scenarios developed based on land-use change analysis, policy reviews and stakeholder interviews were: (1) an energy-dominant scenario (installing a photovoltaic system) and (2) an agriculture–energy combination scenario (installing an agrivoltaic system). The analysis shows that under both scenarios, Hachinohe City Region can achieve 100% renewable energy. There are other benefits, including job creation and, in the case of the agriculture-solar scenario, contribution to domestic food supply resiliency. The study recommends three policy interventions: (1) collaboration amongst the members of the city region to achieve its own carbon–neutral electricity supply; (2) investment for areas without transmission lines to fully benefit from their regional resources; and (3) support for local initiatives where local communities co-manage the resources and co-benefit from them. Based on the results, the paper further highlights the potential of the CES approach to deliver just transition from a spatial perspective.
Endogenous and exogenous uncertainties exert significant influences on energy planning. In this study, we propose a systematic methodology to excavate the uncertainty space, by combining mix-integer linear programming (MILP), Monte Carlo simulation, and machine learning for quantification of the uncertainty impacts on a national-level energy system from global and local perspectives. This approach allows in-depth correlation analysis highlighting potential synergies and risks in the energy transition, and can be easily applied for assisting policy making. The case study for Switzerland shows that both carbon neutrality (even negative emissions) and energy autonomy can be achieved by 2050, but the energy system’s configuration varies significantly under uncertainty. Through conditional distribution analyses, carbon capture and storage (CCS), Photovoltaic (PV), and wood gasification show the most strong correlation for decarbonization. This study is based on the whole uncertainty space taking into account heterogeneous uncertainties, leading to increased reliability compared to sensitivity analysis from single scenarios’ comparisons. The synergy between energy models and artificial intelligence (AI) is promising to be widely applied in energy planning area, particularly for emerging technologies with large uncertainty in development.
Concerns related to climate change and global warming caused by anthropogenic activities and in particular fossil energy use have been increasing lately. Air pollution and volatile conventional fuel prices emphasize the need to transition the energy system towards very high shares of renewables. 100% renewable energy systems have been analyzed by many researchers starting from 1975. This bibliometric analysis reviews more than 600 scientific articles in which 100% renewable energy systems were surveyed. This study uses tools of bibliometric analysis, based on publication databases and data mining, together with review elements to understand the current status and trend of 100% renewable energy systems research. The focus of results is on quantitative parameters relating to number and publication types, collaborative links among authors, institutions, and countries. Collaborative networks provide the significant concentration of published papers within organizations and co-authorships globally. The results reveal that the dominant organizations and thus number of published papers are from Europe and the USA; however, almost all the established research organizations in the field of energy system analysis are not active in the field of 100% renewable energy systems analyses. The journals
Energy
and
Applied Energy
have the most articles, and accordingly the most citations. EnergyPLAN and LUT Energy System Transition Model have been the most active tools used to analyze 100% renewable energy systems according to numbers of articles and received citations. The topic of modeling approach indicates the term ’Energy System’ has the highest frequency due to its emergence in the articles. This research provides a holistic overview on the more than four decades of research, and it reveals dynamics within the field with a compound annual growth rate of articles of 26% for the 2010s, the trend of publications, and author growth that comprises now almost 1400 authors with articles in the field.
Integrating intermittent wind and solar generation into the grid has system integration costs of spinning reserves, increased transmission, and storage. As the penetration of wind and solar generation increase, system integration costs need to be considered, but there are also emissions savings. A TIMES model for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator footprint using publicly available data was used to examine system integration costs and emissions savings benefits of high penetration of intermittent renewable electricity. TIMES is a bottom-up optimization model that minimizes the total system cost. The number of time slices was increased to capture wind and solar generation dynamics, to better understand spinning reserves costs, and to allow battery storage. Using candidate sites for solar and wind generation, transmission, investment and production costs were added. Total system costs increased as there were higher transmission and spinning reserve costs. The emissions savings of Carbon Dioxide equivalent, Sulphur Dioxide, and Particulate Matter were converted to economic benefits using the Social Costs of Emissions. As the penetration of wind and solar generation increases, emissions savings and economic benefits increase. The system integration costs are greater than the benefits of emissions savings. The economic benefits do not justify the system integration cost increases.
Energy systems analyses are integrated elements in planning the transition towards renewable energy-based energy systems. This is due to a growing complexity arising from the wider exploitation of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) and an increasing reliance on sector integration as an enabler of temporal energy system integration, but it calls for consideration to the validity of modelling tools. This article synthesises EnergyPLAN applications through an analysis of its use both from a bibliometric and a case-geographical point of view and through a review of the evolution in the issues addressed and the results obtained using EnergyPLAN. This synthesis is provided with a view to addressing the validity and contribution of EnergyPLAN-based research. As of July 1st, 2022, EnergyPLAN has been applied in 315 peer-reviewed articles, and we see the very high application as an inferred internal validation. In addition, the review shows how the complexity of energy systems analyses has increased over time with early studies focusing on the role of wind power and the cogeneration of heat and power and later studies addressing contemporarily novel issues like the sector integration offered by using power-to-x in fully integrated renewable energy systems. Important findings developed through the application of EnergyPLAN includes the value of district heating in energy systems, the value of district heating for integration of VRES and more generally the importance of sector integration for resource-efficient renewable energy-based energy systems. The wide application across systems and development stages is interpreted as inferred validation through distributed stepwise replication.
Transformation towards climate-neutral energy systems is becoming a challenge worldwide. Most often, strategic planning for the mid- and long-term is tackled with the use of generation expansion optimization models, which have limited capabilities to track in detail power system operation. On the other hand, the unit commitment and economic dispatch models consider many technical constraints but are usually used for short-term planning. The methodological approach presented in this paper aims to improve the planning capabilities by the combination of generation expansion and short-term planning models into one modelling system. Two models were coupled, namely TIMES-PL and MEDUSA, to design a pathway to carbon neutrality in the Polish power system. Three energy scenarios elaborated in this work show that a 95 % reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the public electricity and district heat production sectors is possible by 2050. The proposed approach improved the robustness of elaborated energy scenarios as in their first versions two of them turned out to be technically infeasible. Detail simulations of the system operation showed that load balancing is possible once 15–20 GW of electrical capacity is installed in dispatchable power generation technologies by 2050 in addition to energy storage and combined heat and power plants.
Deep decarbonisation – i.e. the transition towards net-zero emissions energy systems – will be enabled by a high penetration of intermittent renewables, storage and sector-coupling technologies. In this paper, we present a novel modelling approach to capture the increasing complexity of such future energy systems and help policy makers choose among the different possible transition scenarios. Salient features of our model, consisting of an extended and regionalised version of EnergyScope (Limpens et al., 2019 [1]), are a low computational time and a concise formulation which make it suitable for uncertainty and what-if analyses. As a case study, the model is applied to devise scenarios for the Italian energy transition. Specifically, we develop the first open-source whole-energy system model of Italy and assess the feasibility of its decarbonisation strategy with respect to uncertainties in the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable technologies. Results show that emissions can be cut by 79%–97% vs. 1990 levels thanks to a radical electrification of the energy system coupled to a wide deployment of renewables and efficient energy conversion technologies. Finally, we discuss the synergies, advantages and disadvantages of our proposed approach with respect to alternative modelling approaches used across 88 recent deep decarbonisation studies. The analysis suggests that our model, thanks to its computational efficiency and a snapshot approach (i.e., modelling a target-year in the future), can complement more detailed and established energy models optimising the energy transition pathway (i.e., modelling the pathway from today to the target year).
This study presents a new methodology, based on Monte-Carlo techniques to evaluate the reliability of a carbon-free electricity generation system based on renewable sources; it uses as inputs the variation of the electricity demand and the fluctuations in the renewable supply and provides the renewable system to be installed to guarantee a specific supply reliability level. Additionally, looking for a reduction of this renewable system, the methodology determines the improvements by the incorporation of nuclear power and electricity storage. The methodology is of general application, its implementation being possible under different contexts, such as different time horizons and different future energy scenarios, both for developing, emerging, and developed countries. The only requirement is to have a sufficient database from which to make predictions for future scenarios of electrical generation–demand balances. As an example of practical implementation, the electrical system reliability for the particular case of Spain in 2040 has been forecasted. When considering the fluctuations in solar and wind power contributions, very high values of the installed power from these renewable sources are needed to reach a high reliability of the system. These values decrease substantially if contributions from nuclear and storage technologies are included.
Based on the empirical data of 22 airlines during 2014–2019, the paper studies the impact of the introduction of Carbon neutral growth from 2020 (CNG2020) strategy on airlines' pollution abatement costs. This research considers the prices of inputs and outputs, and proposes a new Profit Pollution Abatement Costs (PPAC) index to ensure that the calculated Net Pollution Abatement Costs (NPAC) index is a cost index rather than a physical index, and a two-stage network environment production function is established to discuss the NPAC differences before and after the CNG2020 strategy was proposed. The main findings are: (a)The introduction of CNG2020 strategy has had a certain degree of impact on the airlines’ net pollution abatement costs. (b)All Nippon Airways has the largest NPAC among the 22 airlines, while Delta Air Lines and Finnair have excellent pollution abatement performance during 2014–2019. (c)Aviation carbon emissions are closely related to jet fuel consumption and route distance.
Renewable energy technologies play an important role in the future energy systems, not only to realize a low-carbon society, but also to provide socioeconomic benefits such as creating employment opportunities and revitalizing local economies. This study considers the impact of employment in rural power plants as a socioeconomic benefit and analyzes the transition to a low-carbon energy system using a multi-regional MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. The benefit is monetized in order to incorporate it into a cost minimization objective function, and we focus on the impact of the differences in the value on the Japanese energy system and employment. Our results suggest that when considering employment effects of rural power plants, renewable power generation will increase up to 350 TWh, mainly biomass and solar photovoltaic, in 2030. Total employment associated with power generation facilities in rural areas over the model period (45 y) will increase by up to 2.28 million person-year, and biomass power generation, in particular, can have a significant role in the revitalization of local economies owing to the large job creation effect during its operation and maintenance phase.
West African countries face a long-standing energy access issue stemming from historical low generation capacity, poor planning processes and financially-constrained power utilities. Within current frameworks, progress towards achieving universal access to electricity is slow. However, the region displays a huge endowment of renewables which clearly appear to be paramount to expanding electricity generation capacity and meeting an ever-rising demand. The clear evidence of the crescent role of utility-scale expansion of renewables-based generation has called for collective action in the region to improve electricity access and drive economic growth. Therefore, research on the design and implementation of a renewables-based future for West Africa is needed. However, the literature on electricity planning considering the use of renewables in West Africa is scarce and mostly limited to least-cost and/or low-resolution modeling. Through an exploratory approach, the present study contributes to enhancing current knowledge by capturing the essence of the existing literature on generation capacity expansion modeling approaches and critically analyzing their shortcomings to define potential improvement avenues for future research. Advancing academic knowledge in such direction would provide sound scientific evidence to key national and regional stakeholders in order to take a step closer towards building a resilient future for West African countries.
This paper presents the ongoing research within Clim2Power project Portuguese case study. Its main goal (as a first step) is to show the relevance of using a highly detailed spatial and temporal modeling tool of the Portuguese electricity system in order to be able to adequately capture climate variability in the planning of the system up to 2050. To do so, we consider seasonal and intraday hydro, wind and solar resources variability in a large TIMES energy system model, in the eTIMES_PT model. Existing hydro, wind and thermal powerplants are modelled individually, whereas new plants are modelled at municipality level. The importance of introducing climate variability is assessed by modeling six scenarios: a reference case and both “humid” and “dry” hydropower scenarios. Each of these is also modelled with CO2 emissions cap by 2050. Results show that hydropower electricity generation variations are within range of those referred in literature by other authors. However, in this work, we are able to capture higher variations within seasons and time of day. Also, the analysis enables to account for the combined variability of hydro, PV and wind resources. This variability will subsequently consider data from seasonal forecasts and climate projections.
West Africa holds some of the lowest electrification rates in sub-Saharan Africa with high disparities among countries and between urban and rural areas. Despite long-standing efforts to scale-up electrification levels, overall progress remains slow and highly cost ineffective. Hence, it is crucial that electricity planning processes primarily address the questions of the complementarity between utility-scale and decentralised generation. This paper applies the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to two ECOWAS countries – Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire – with the aim of determining the optimal combination of grid-connected and off-grid systems to serve rural and urban demand by 2030, using high-resolution geospatial data. This country-wide analysis highlights the fundamental role of off-grid solar photovoltaics and wind technologies in bridging the electricity access gap, particularly in Burkina Faso. Additionally, cheaper electricity costs in Côte d’Ivoire could be taken advantage of through enhanced cross-border exchanges between the two countries.
Long-term energy system optimization models can be designed to model systems with a broad geographical scope that comprises multiple countries. However, due to computational limitations, often the geographical scope is restricted to a single country. This raises the problem of correctly accounting for cross-border trade of electricity in models with a limited geographical scope. Therefore, this paper assesses the impact of not correctly representing cross-border trade flows in geographically restricted long-term planning models. To this end, we use a planning model for the interconnected Central-Western European power system to compare technology choices and welfare estimates for Belgium when (i) cross-border trade of electricity is ignored and (ii) cross-border trade flows are an endogenous part of the planning model. Furthermore, this paper presents two sets of methodologies to account for transmission flows in planning models. A first methodology is to extend the model’s geographical scope and fix the capacity variables in the neighboring countries in line with pre-designed scenarios for those countries. A second methodology further reduces the computational cost by using specially tailored import and export curves to represent each country’s trade opportunities. The results indicate that for highly interconnected systems, neglecting cross-border trade or having a highly stylized representation of cross-border flows can lead to inaccurate welfare estimates and technology biases. In addition, a key insight presented in this paper is that congestion rents can constitute a major share of the welfare gains attained by trading electricity. Finally, endogenizing the dispatch decisions in neighboring countries is the most accurate method to deal with cross-border trade, while by correctly designing cross-border trade curves computational time can be reduced, but planning model outcomes become less accurate.
Due to the coal-dominated power generation structure, Shandong is facing severe power source structural contradiction and tremendous pressure to reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, considering the elimination of coal power overcapacity and introduction of carbon capture and storage technology, this study established an optimization model to identify the low-carbon production pathways for Shandong’s power industry. The results indicated that nuclear power, wind power and complementary energy power would be the overriding clean energy power generation technologies. As to coal power, less than 300 MW-level generating units would be eliminated totally at the end of 2021, then followed by 300 MW-level generating units. And no doubt, 1000 MW-level generating units would become the primary coal-fired power generation technology gradually. Moreover, in 2021, clean energy power would account for about 52.33% of the total installed capacity, surpassing coal power for the first time and undertaking the main task of power generation. Hence, while striving to develop clean energy, those acquired achievements refer to elimination of coal power overcapacity should be further consolidated. Furthermore, when promoting carbon capture and storage technology, governments should not only make a trade-off analysis between its cost and environmental benefit, but also take the provincial actual situation and economic affordability into account.
Given the major contribution of the construction industry to carbon emissions in China, scientific prediction of carbon emissions in China's construction industry is important for creating carbon reduction policies, and examining whether China can achieve its 2020 carbon intensity target in this sector. This paper investigates the influence of different economic growth rates and different carbon reduction technology policy factors on carbon emissions, and carbon intensity of GDP by a system dynamics method. The results show that carbon emissions are mainly determined by indirect emissions and increase with an increase in industrial GDP. A higher economic growth rate will lead to more carbon emissions, whereas the carbon intensity will decrease with an increase in economic growth rate. Promoting carbon reduction technology development can mitigate carbon emissions and intensity. We assume a conservative rate of economic growth, a 2% reduction relative to the base scenario level; meanwhile, the impact of carbon reduction policy on the decrease in the carbon emission factor is assumed to be 5%. Carbon emissions are lowest under the two assumptions. In all scenarios, the 40–45% reduction in carbon intensity level of 2005 is accomplished. Policies encouraging low-carbon technology would help achieve the objectives of carbon mitigation.
Energy systems are currently designed focusing only on minimizing their cost or, at most, including limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, electricity technologies performing well in global warming potential might not necessarily behave equally well across other sustainability criteria. Hence, policies focused solely on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions could potentially resolve one problem (i.e., climate change)by creating another, thereby leading to burden-shifting. Here, the occurrence and severity of burden-shifting in energy systems design are both investigated through the application of a novel approach integrating multi-objective optimization, life cycle assessment and multivariate regression based on elasticities. Environmental impacts are classified into three categories: no burden-shifting, total burden-shifting and partial burden-shifting, providing for the latter two a measure of their severity. Due to inherent trade-offs in the life cycle performance of technologies, discussed in detail in this work, the Paris Agreement 2 °C targets would lead to burden-shifting in the United States (total or partial)in up to eight environmental impacts. On the other hand, stringent carbon emissions reductions in line with the 1.5 °C targets can lead to burden-shifting in three environmental impacts. Indeed, in both cases undesirable increases in some damage categories of up to 1.64% for every percentage increase in cost can take place as a result of more stringent limits on greenhouse gas emissions compared to the least cost solution. Overall, this work aims to foster fruitful discussions on how to generate energy within the Earth's ecological capacity by expanding the analysis beyond climate change.
The Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) stands as one as one of the most discussed topics within the academia and decision makers in the energy sector, especially related to meeting deep emission reduction targets. Every country, aiming at decarbonizing its economy, focuses on the application of policies that could enhance the penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in its power capacity mix. GEP is a complex task, combining techno-economic, financial, spatial and environmental characteristics. Several models are developed to model GEP, applying different methodological approaches. The underlying theory is very important as it might inherit bias in the resulted outcomes. The debate on the appropriateness of each methodology is increased, especially as projected outlooks deviate from reality. The paper aims to provide a review of the models employed to integrate RES in the GEP. The paper classifies models in three generic categories: optimisation models, general/partial equilibrium models and alternative models, not adopting the optimum integration of RES in the GEP. It provides insights on the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the theoretical approaches implemented, as well on their suitability for different aspects of the problem, contributing in the better understanding on the expected outcomes of each methodology.
The decarbonization of industrial energy consumption is critical for global climate change mitigation, and this process can bring multiple challenges, especially for regions at the early stage of industrialization. To explore the possible transitions of industry sector under 2-degree target, this paper applied a 14-region energy system model (Global TIMES) to analyze the transition pathways of industry sector. The socio-economic uncertainty was considered by introducing Shared Socio-economic Pathways into scenario design. Moreover, a comparison between China, India and West Europe was conducted, to provide information on the key challenges for regions at different industrialization stages. Modeling results show that: 1. In reference scenarios, global industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions would keep growing in next decades, industry sector may emit over 25% of total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050; 2. The changes in socio-economic developing pattern could slow down the emission growth, however, under 2-degree target, at least 118 Gt of additional emission reduction is required from 2010 to 2050; 3. The mitigation requirement would lead to great energy structure changes including rapid electrification, electricity may be able to provide nearly 40% of Western Europe's industrial final energy consumption by 2050; 4. Improvement on energy intensity would be accelerated in RCP26 scenarios, especially for emerging economies, by mid-century, China and India's industrial energy intensity would reduce by over 60% and 50% respectively, compared with 2010’s level.
This paper aims to analyze Iran's long-term power sector development from economic, environmental, social, and sustainable perspectives. For this purpose, a linear programming model is developed, which includes three objective functions: minimization of costs, minimization of CO2 emissions, and maximization of created jobs. To provide a sustainable plan, analytical hierarchy process is employed to allocate expert-based weights to the objective functions. Moreover, to support the decision-makers, Pareto-optimal alternatives are explored by varying the weights of objectives. The multi-objective model is solved by applying a weighted method based on fuzzy membership functions. The results show that a sustainable scenario leads to high technology diversification. Furthermore, the combined cycle would be the dominant option in Iran's long-term generation mix. In addition, power generation from non-hydro renewables, solar PV in particular, should grow faster than the total electricity demand. The findings indicate that the economic scenario fulfills Iran's commitment to 4% reduction of emissions compared to the current trend; however, the sustainable and environmental scenarios would cause achievement of the superior 12% reduction goal. Multi-objective analysis shows that moving away from one's objective optimum value leads to significant improvements in other objective values.
The European Union has the target to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final consumption of energy to 20% by 2020 (9.2% in 2006). Besides electricity, primary energy consumption includes heating, cooling, and transportation. Increasing RES in transportation is more costly than in electricity generation, and hence the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is likely to be significantly higher than 20%. It has been estimated, that the RES share in electricity sector could be around 35% in 2020. A significant part of the new renewable electricity (RES-E) capacity will be wind power and photovoltaics (PV). The output from these is variable, and not dispatchable in the traditional sense. Increasing wind and PV generation presents vast challenges to the power market and electricity grid. The keys to integrate variable generation to the grid are adequately interconnected electricity markets and smarter grids with more flexible demand. Currently, each Member State has a separate support scheme for RES-E. The instruments can be divided between investment support and operating support (price subsidies, green certificates, tender schemes, and tax reductions for the production of electricity). Feed-in tariffs are the most prevalent support mechanism. Largest addition in the NREAPs is expected from wind power generation. Wind power could exceed hydropower generation in 2016-2017. High growth is also expected in solid biomass-based electricity generation and PV. NREAP scenarios were compared against four other sources, which had quite similar expectations.
Although the Portuguese electricity system liberalization process started almost 20 years ago, 83% of electricity generated in 2010 still benefited from a State guaranteed price, independent of market behavior. This applies not only to producers using renewable energy sources and cogeneration under feed-in tariffs, but also to all conventional power plants that undersigned a power purchase agreement in the 1990s. Because no comprehensive public information about State guaranteed prices is available, research was first carried out to unveil generation legacy contracts' volumes and then costs and their impact on consumers. A producers' database was created by the authors which enables an accurate assessment of the volumes of electricity with and without State guaranteed prices. In a previous paper the authors have validated the data set and the volume computation methodology for the period 2000-2010 and provided an estimate of those volumes in the period 2011-2030. This paper estimates average prices per producer type and assesses generation legacy contract costs in the period 2011-2030. Moreover, the paper computes the impact of generation legacy costs upon end-user average electricity prices and generation costs for several scenarios of market prices and demand.
Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) is the International Energy Agency's most ambitious publication on energy technology. It demonstrates how technologies – from electric vehicles to smart grids – can make a decisive difference in limiting climate change and enhancing energy security. ETP 2012 presents detailed scenarios and strategies to 2050. It is an indispensible guide for decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future. ETP 2012 shows: ■ current progress on clean energy deployment, and what can be done to accelerate it; ■ how energy security and low carbon energy are linked; ■ how energy systems will become more complex in the future, why systems integration is beneficial and how it can be achieved; ■ how demand for heating and cooling will evolve dramatically and which solutions will satisfy it; ■ why flexible electricity systems are increasingly important, and how a system with smarter grids, energy storage and flexible generation can work; ■ why hydrogen could play a big role in the energy system of the future; ■ why fossil fuels will not disappear but will see their roles change, and what it means for the energy system as a whole; ■ what is needed to realise the potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS); ■ whether available technologies can allow the world to have zero energy related emissions by 2075 – which seems a necessary condition for the world to meet the 2°C target.
Many options can be effectively used to meet the future power needs of a country in ways which would be more economically viable, environmentally sound, and socially just. A least-cost generation expansion planning study is conducted to find the economic feasibility of large scale integration of wind farms in the main interconnected transmission system of Oman. The generation expansion planning software used is WASP which is restricted in its ability to model intermittent nature of wind.Therefore, a wind turbine is modeled as a thermal plant with high forced outage rate related to its capacity factor.The result of the study has shown that wind turbines are economically viable option in the overall least-cost generation expansion plan for the Main Interconnected
System of Oman.
This paper presents the methodology and results of an integrated generation and transmission expansion planning study for the ten-country Balkans region. The methodology, which is based on large scale decomposition techniques, allows a detailed representation of the multi-regional hydrothermal system operation, such as chronological simulation, modeling of water coupling for reservoirs in cascade, pumped storage, stochastic optimization of reservoir operation, multivariate probabilistic inflow modeling, transmission network constraints, spot purchases and emission limits. On the investment side, one can represent capacity reserve constraints, mutually exclusive and interdependent projects, and both integer and continuous investment decisions.
The current century—an era of environmental awareness—requires energy resources to satisfy the world's future energy demands. We can use current energy use scenarios to help us to understand how energy systems could change. Such scenarios are not an exercise in prophecy; rather they are designed to challenge our thinking in order to make better decisions today. The conventional modeling approach tends to extrapolate changes in energy consumption from historical trends; however, technology innovation sometimes causes drastic reforms in energy systems in the industrial, commercial, residential and transportation sectors. The economic aspects are another key issue to be considered in order to understand future changes in energy systems. The quantity of the energy supply is set to meet the price of the energy demand of end users. This occurs on the condition that the price of the energy supply equates with the price on the demand side under the market mechanism. This paper reviews the various issues associated with the energy-economic model and its application to national energy policies, renewable energy systems, and the global environment.
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative overview of existing energy system models to see whether they are suitable for analysing energy, environment and climate change policies of developing countries.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews the available literature and follows a systematic comparative approach to achieve its purpose.
Findings – The paper finds that the existing energy system models inadequately capture the developing country features and the problem is more pronounced with econometric and optimisation models than with accounting models.
Originality/value – Inaccurate representation of energy systems in the models can lead to inaccurate decisions and poor policy prescriptions. Thus, the paper helps policy makers and users to be aware of the possible pitfalls of various energy system models.
Literature is replete with both top–down and bottom–up energy policy models developed for addressing various policy and planning concerns in developed countries. These models provide a good starting point for analyzing certain issues in the modern industries of developing countries, like improvement of operations, impact of technology mix, and effects of certain aspects of privatization. However, their capability for enabling a comprehensive policy analysis for developing countries is limited. This is because they lack in their representation of characteristics that are specific to developing economies. Policy priorities of equity and sustainability, existence of a large traditional sector, transition of population from traditional to modern markets, on-going major changes in the regulatory and competitive structure of energy industries, existence of multiple social and economic barriers to capital flow and technological diffusion, likelihood of huge investments in energy supply over next few decades, long-term uncertainties in domestic policy regime, and importance of decentralized energy planning are examples of characteristics that are specific to most developing economies. Such features need to be explicitly addressed in energy policy models in order to enable a meaningful policy analysis for developing countries. Additionally, results from a variety of models need to be considered by policy makers of developing countries in order to assess robustness of their decisions.
This paper includes a review of the different computer tools that can be used to analyse the integration of renewable energy. Initially 68 tools were considered, but 37 were included in the final analysis which was carried out in collaboration with the tool developers or recommended points of contact. The results in this paper provide the information necessary to identify a suitable energy tool for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy-systems under different objectives. It is evident from this paper that there is no energy tool that addresses all issues related to integrating renewable energy, but instead the ‘ideal’ energy tool is highly dependent on the specific objectives that must be fulfilled. The typical applications for the 37 tools reviewed (from analysing single-building systems to national energy-systems), combined with numerous other factors such as the energy-sectors considered, technologies accounted for, time parameters used, tool availability, and previous studies, will alter the perception of the ‘ideal’ energy tool. In conclusion, this paper provides the information necessary to direct the decision-maker towards a suitable energy tool for an analysis that must be completed.
For an economically and ecologically optimised integration of fluctuating renewable power generation (especially wind power) into electricity generation, a detailed consideration of fluctuation-induced effects on the existing power system is essential. A model-based approach is introduced in this paper, which comprehensively analyses the impact of such effects on power plant scheduling and facilitates their integration into the development of strategies for an optimised evolution of the future power system structure. The newly developed Aeolius tool for the simulation of power plant scheduling is described. In a combined analysis of long- and short-term effects it is used together with the multi-periodic cost-optimising energy system model PERSEUS-CERT. Based on the Matlab/Simulink® package, Aeolius considers the challenges for plant scheduling down to a time scale of 10 min. Special attention is paid to the provision of stand-by capacities and control power, as well as intermediate storage. Thus, a sophisticated quantification of the actual (net) benefits of wind power feed-in is achieved. Model results for Germany show that wind mainly substitutes power from intermediate-load and base-load plants (coal-, lignite-, and nuclear-fired). However, the required provision of stand-by capacities and control power does not only limit the substitution of conventional capacities, but also the achievable net savings of fuel and emissions in conventional power generation.
In this first part of a two-part article, the principal characteristics of the TIMES model and of its global incarnation as
ETSAP-TIAM are presented and discussed. TIMES was conceived as a descendent of the MARKAL and EFOM paradigms, to which several
new features were added to extend its functionalities and its applicability to the exploration of energy systems and the analysis
of energy and environmental policies. The article stresses the technological nature of the model and its economic foundation
and properties. The article stays at the conceptual and practical level, while a companion article is devoted to the more
detailed formulation of TIMES equations. Special sections are devoted to the description of four optional features of TIMES:
lumpy investments, endogenous technology learning, stochastic programming, and the climate module. The article ends with a
brief description of recent applications of the ETSAP-TIAM model.
This paper aims to assess the level of integration of the South West Europe regional electricity spot markets created under the initiative launched by the European Regulators Group for Electricity and Gas and essential to comply with the targets set in the Florence Regulatory Forum. Due to geographical conditions, the integration of the European South-West regional electricity spot market relies on the physical interconnection between two pairs of Transmission Systems: Portugal-Spain and Spain-France. Development of the interconnection capacity between Portugal and Spain has been pursued, while between France and Spain the existing interconnection capacity is considered to be a critical factor to ensure integration.
Electricity spot market integration was evaluated by correlating day-ahead hourly spot electricity prices (from 1st of January 2009 to the 31st December 2011) in each pair of spot markets (Portugal-Spain, France-Spain, Portugal-France). Additionally Granger-cause and impulse response analysis were made.
The current electricity market integration between Portugal and Spain was found to be high. France and Spain were found to have poor electricity market integration, which justifies the European Union to support the investment in the development of new interconnections. The weak level of integration between Spain and France was confirmed by the Granger-causality and impulse response analysis. Six days are required to observer a small positive effect on the Spanish electricity spot market after a shock in the French one.
The Portuguese and Spanish systems, that is to say MIBEL markets, are well integrated leading to the conclusion that the Price Coupling mechanism is efficient and contributes to the integration of spot electricity markets. However this mechanism is absent between MIBEL and EPEX and as demonstrated, there is a weak integration level between these spot electricity markets.
This paper introduces novel framework for the modeling of hydro and thermal power plants generation system expansion plan for Pakistan. The modeling is achieved by using WASP-IV (Wien Automatic System Planning) model. It consists of seven modules. Each module determines different outputs with their respective inputs. Electricity demand is rapidly increasing as the population rises. The Electricity demand increased with devastating rate of 7.8% per year from 2003 to 2011. The installed capacity is not fulfilling the electricity demand. An mandatory generation mix supply is required for the time period 2011-2030. The Power Expansion Planning is done on generation level. In 2011, electricity demand raised to 25,400 MW. . In this paper load is forecasted with standard regression method. It helps in prediction of different types of loads. Then the Load Duration Curves generated are normalized against capacity factor at which power plant is operated. Further several necessary parameters are evaluated which are involved in generation expansion plan. Moreover, the selection of plants is achieved through screening curves. It allow us to know the most economical plants for base load, base load and peak load at different capacity factors. Screening curve is created by finding annualized cost, capital cost, heat rate, fuel rate and fixed costs for each plant. Thus by comparison, it helps us in a more convenient way to select the most feasible plant in correspondence of economical and fuel constraints. The result illustrates the Optimized Cost of Generation Plan, Generation Mix Supply for Pakistan (year 2030). It emphasizes on Investment and Production Costs ($ US Million), Fuel requirement and their costs, Operation and Maintenance Costs, and Loss of Load Probability. In the end, least cost financial plan for the whole time period is determined.
This paper aims to assess the level of integration of the Central-West Europe (CWE: Germany - EEX, France - Powernext, the Netherlands - APX, Belgium - BPX and Luxembourg) regional electricity spot markets created under the initiative launched by the European Regulators Group for Electricity and Gas and essential to comply with the targets set in the Florence Regulatory Forum. As always, the integration of the European Central-West regional electricity spot markets relies on the physical interconnection between the transmission systems. Development of interconnection capacities within the region has been pursued as reported by the different Transmission System Operators, recognising that interconnection capacity is considered to be a critical factor to ensure market integration. Electricity spot market integration in the CWE region was appraised by assessing day-ahead spot electricity prices (from 1st of January 2007 to the 31st December 2012) in each spot market. Taking into consideration the adoption of the market coupling mechanism between EEX and the trilateral Pow ern ext, APX and BPX on the 9th of November 2010, a structural break in the data was evaluated through Granger-cause and impulse response analysis undertaken based on econometric models. To the best of our knowledge this approach is the first to perform a detailed analysis grounded on several econometric models to trace the effects of the introduction of the market coupling mechanism.
c We present an EU þ MENA power system model that considers long term investments and integration of renewables. c For low emission targets, renewable integration issues lead to escalating electricity prices. c The feasibility frontier can be pushed by adequate transmission and storage investments. c The transformation from wind/fossil to wind/solar regime changes integration requirements. c Low emission targets can be reached without significant interconnections between EU and MENA regions. a b s t r a c t We use the multi-scale power system model LIMES-EU þ to explore coordinated long term expansion pathways for Renewable Energy (RE) generation, long distance transmission and storage capacities for the power sector of the Europe and Middle East/North Africa (MENA) regions that lead to a low emission power system. We show that ambitious emission reduction targets can be achieved at moderate costs by a nearly complete switch to RE sources until 2050, if transmission and storage capacities are expanded adequately. Limiting transmission capacities to current levels leads to higher storage requirements, higher curtailments, and to an increase in temporal and spatial electricity price variations. Results show an escalation of electricity prices if emission reductions exceed a critical value. Adequate expansion of transmission and storage capacities shift this threshold from 70% to 90% emission reductions in 2050 relative to 2010.
To analyze the challenge of large-scale integration of renewables during the next decades, we present
a conceptual power system model that bridges the gap between long term investment allocation and
short-term system operation decisions. It integrates dynamic investments in generation, transmission
and storage capacities as well as short-term variability and spatial distribution of supply and demand
in a single intertemporal optimization framework. Large-scale grid topology, power flow distributions
and storage requirements are determined endogenously. Results obtained with a three region model
application indicate that adequate and timely investments in transmission and storage capacities are
of great importance. Delaying these investments, which are less costly than investments in generation
capacities, leads to system-wide indirect effects, such as non-optimal siting of renewable generation
capacities, decreasing generation shares of renewables, increasing residual emissions and hence higher
overall costs.
This article summarises findings from a review of eighteen large-scale post-carbon transition strategies, from government and non-government sources. It is informed by analysis of policies and reports identifying one or more integrated pathways for achieving dramatic greenhouse gas emissions reductions within national or supranational jurisdictions. For each strategy we considered assumptions and priorities regarding: targets, technology; economics and financing; equity; governance; and social and political change. We describe lessons from analysis of these attempts to articulate and stimulate integrated actions for post-carbon transitions and point to areas for further exploration. A crucial difference was identified between strategies advocating an incremental and evolutionary approach to emissions reductions and those advocating more rapid and transformational change. This highlights the challenging and urgent task of understanding how to bridge the gap between physical requirements of action to prevent runaway climate change and societal support for action at that speed and scale.
The design of transition pathways for sustainable electricity systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires the use of energy modeling tools that are able to account for two key aspects: the evolution of fossil fuels and technology prices, and the natural dynamics of renewable resources. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used focus on only one of these two aspects, which hinders their suitability for performing long-term analysis with high penetrations of renewable energy sources.
This paper presents a modeling framework that is able to optimize the investment in new renewable generation capacity on the long-term while taking into account the hourly dynamics of electricity supply and demand. The framework combines two of the most used energy planning tools, each able to account for one of the aspects of the modeling of energy systems.
The framework was applied to continental Portugal for the time period of 2005–2050, in order to identify optimal investment plans in new renewable and fossil generation capacity with the goal of achieving significant CO2 emissions reduction, under different scenarios. The results show that the inclusion of dynamics in the modeling methodology can help avoid overinvestment and reduce the excess of electricity from renewable energy sources that cannot be used by the system. These results can have a significant impact on the design of a sustainable electricity system and may lead to a diversification of the energy sources used.
In this paper we present a soft-linking methodology that employs detailed simulation outputs from a dedicated power systems model to gain insights and understanding of the generation electricity plant portfolio results for the electricity sector from a separate energy systems model. We apply the methodology and present and discuss the results. The motivation for this soft-linking is to provide a transfer of information from the power systems model strong points to the energy systems model and use this information to improve and develop understanding of energy systems model results. Part of this motivation is derived from a view that one specific energy modeling tool cannot address all aspects of the full energy system in great detail and greater insights and progress can be gained by drawing on the strengths of multiple modeling tools rather than trying to incorporate them all into one comprehensive model. The methodology takes an optimized generation portfolio for a specific year from an energy systems model and undertakes a detailed high resolution chronological simulation of the same portfolio in the power systems model with added degrees of technical detail. Results presented here show that in the absence of key technical constraints, an energy systems model can potentially undervalue flexible resources, underestimate wind curtailment and overestimate the use of baseload plant.
Increasing penetration of fluctuating energy sources for electricity generation, heating, cooling and transportation increase the need for flexibility of the energy system to accommodate the fluctuations of these energy sources. Controlling production, controlling demand and utilising storage options are the three general categories of measures that may be applied for ensuring balance between production and demand, however with fluctuating energy sources, options are limited, and flexible demand has also demonstrated limited perspective. This article takes its point of departure in an all-inclusive 100% renewable energy scenario developed for the Danish city Aalborg based on wind power, bio-resources and low-temperature geothermal heat. The article investigates the system impact of different types of energy storage systems including district heating storage, biogas storage and electricity storage. The system is modelled in the energy systems analyses model energyPRO with a view to investigating how the different storages marginally affect the amount of wind power that may be integrated applying the different storage options and the associated economic costs. Results show the largest system impact but also most costly potential are in the form of electricity storages.
This work assesses the retrofit potential of existing Portuguese fossil fuel power plants with post-combustion CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology. The Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) was used to provide a systematic techno-economic analysis of the cost of emission control equipment, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and other key parameters which may change when CCS is implemented at a fossil fuel power plant. The results indicate that CCS requires a large capital investment and significantly increases the levelized cost of electricity. However, the economic viability of CCS increases with higher CO2 prices. The breakeven CO2 price for plants with and without CCS was estimated at $85–$140/t of CO2 depending on the technical parameters of the individual plants.
Integrated Assessment models, widely applied in climate change mitigation research, show that renewable energy sources (RES) play an important role in the decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, the representation of relevant technologies in those models is highly stylized, thereby omitting important information about the variability of electricity demand and renewables supply. We present a power system model combining long time scales of climate change mitigation and power system investments with short-term fluctuations of RES. Investigating the influence of increasingly high temporal resolution on the optimal technology mix yields two major findings: the amount of flexible natural gas technologies for electricity generation rises while the share of wind energy only depends on climate policy constraints. Furthermore, overall power system costs increase as temporal resolution is refined in the model, while mitigation costs remain unaffected.
Portugal is faced with important challenges concerning the definition of policies to achieve energy and environmental targets, taking also into account the economic and social issues. A multi-sectoral economy–energy–environment model has been developed to perform a prospective analysis of the changes in the economic structure and the energy system, as well as to assess the corresponding environmental impacts, providing decision support in policy making. This model is a multi-objective linear programming model that allows for the explicit consideration of distinct axes of evaluation, generally conflicting and non-commensurate, of the merit of distinct policies. The policy recommendations obtained are subject to the inherent uncertainty associated with the model coefficients and, therefore, they may not be robust in face of changes of the input data. The specification of less energy or carbon-intensive technologies is done by considering pollutant/energy coefficients defined as intervals. This analysis is crucial for understanding the role of technology in carbon mitigation efforts and other energy system planning settings, allowing to explore the effects of distinct policies on the total system costs, the fuel and technology mix, and the levels of greenhouse gases and other emissions.
The needs that an energy supply system must meet are constantly changing, due to technological, social and political reasons. Effective energy planning is a dynamic process that is repeated periodically and adjusts to changing conditions. Energy decision makers and planners are no longer able to rely on inductive decision making since they have to investigate the effect of various decision parameters and possible future changes. To help in this process, models have been developed where estimates of future load growth, candidate power plants, fuels and other key factors can be introduced, from which the planners can evaluate decision parameters and the available alternatives. The paper presents the different methodologies and practices that are used by 11 energy models for energy demand forecasting, supply side management and generation expansion planning, demand side management and integrated resource planning. The paper concludes to the presentation of a strategic appraisal of the examined energy models appropriate for energy planning in Mozambique. Three models are proposed for conducting demand forecasting, generation expansion planning and demand side management. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand. This paper presents an extension of the TIMES energy planning tool for investment decisions in electricity production that considers seasonal, daily and hourly supply and demand dynamics. The inclusion of these dynamics enables the model to produce more accurate results in what concerns the impact of introducing energy efficiency policies and the increased use of renewable energies. The model was validated in São Miguel (Azores, Portugal) for the years 2006-2009, where a comparison with real data showed that the model can simulate the supply and demand dynamics. Further, the long-term analysis shows that the inclusion of these dynamics contributes to a better assessment of the renewable energy potential, suggests the postponement of investments in new generation capacity, and demonstrates that using fine time resolution modeling is very valuable for the design of effective policy measures under high renewable penetration energy systems.
Portugal is a country with an energy system highly dependent on oil and gas imports. Imports of oil and gas accounted for 85% of the country's requirements in 2005 and 86% in 2006. Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the total primary energy consumption was only 14% in 2006. When focusing only on electricity production, the situation is somewhat better. The share of RES in gross electricity production varies between 20% and 35% and is dependent on the hydropower production in wet and dry years. This paper presents, on a national scale, Portugal's energy system planning and technical solutions for achieving 100% RES electricity production. Planning was based on hourly energy balance and use of H2RES software. The H2RES model provides the ability to integrate various types of storages into energy systems in order to increase penetration of the intermittent renewable energy sources or to achieve a 100% renewable island, region or country. The paper also represents a stepping-stone for studies offering wider possibilities in matching and satisfying electricity supply in Portugal with potential renewable energy sources. Special attention has been given to intermittent sources such as wind, solar and ocean waves that can be coupled to appropriate energy storage systems charged with surplus amounts of produced electricity. The storage systems also decrease installed power requirements for generating units. Consequently, these storages will assist in avoiding unnecessary rejection of renewable potential and reaching a sufficient security of energy supply.