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Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling

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... The flexibility of TIMES in cases where it is possible to split the year into several time slots with changed optional lengths is one of the most advantages of TIMES over other programs. TIMES also makes it probable to have different decomposition levels for different sectors and the choice of investing in blocks [47]. TIMES is a perfect program for simulating scenarios and an ideal tool for forecasting inquiry [48]. ...
... Because TIMES uses an optimization algorithm and has a wide technology and commodity base, the number of periods should be considered because they significantly impact the model's processing complexity [47]. To fulfil the demand side, TIMES needs the full range of processes as a supply of primary fuels throughout the transformation technologies [48]. ...
... The modelling results reveal that modelling Portugal in an isolated manner reduces investment efficiency and may cause insufficient investments and inadequate use of RES in the long run. On the contrary, modelling Portugal with the interconnected system can significantly influence the structure of a renewable power system and improve investment effectiveness while reducing costs and risk[47].The paper of Haiges et al. offers an investigation of the long-term electricity production scenarios for Malaysia by the TIMES model. The findings demonstrated that Malaysia has enough RES to provide the estimated future power demand by 2050, and fossil resources can be substituted entirely with electricity produced from hydropower and RES [48]. ...
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Various international agreements and mechanisms are established to mitigate climate change by setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Türkiye plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 41% from the Business as Usual level in 2030 and set its net zero target. Thus, reducing the emissions of the electricity and heat production sector, primarily driven by fossil fuels, will help achieve its emission target. This study aims to provide a pathway for designing the Turkish electricity and heat production sector and its policy reflection to achieve a net zero emissions target for 2053. Türkiye's electricity sector is analyzed based on five scenarios with different emission pathways between 2021 and 2053. The model results show a substantial increase in installed capacity, generation and cumulative investment costs to achieve the net zero target in the two scenarios, dominantly using nuclear power plants and fossil power plants with carbon capture and storage. Although the increment in installed capacity has a similar level in a third net zero emissions scenario, which integrates more wind and solar energy investments with the help of energy storage technologies, with these two scenarios, the cost of generation and cumulative investment costs are smaller than in these scenarios. An additional investment between 340 and 391 billion USD is necessary to achieve the net zero emissions target over business as usual between 2020 and 2053. It is calculated that 19-23% of the additional investment costs over business as usual level can be covered by carbon revenues. On the other hand, a minor increase in generation cost, emissions and installed capacity is expected when an emission reduction of 40% from the Business as Usual level is estimated. These results reveal the need for significant changes in its energy policies to pave the way for substantial investment in renewable and nuclear energy, battery storage installations, and power plants with carbon capture and storage to achieve the net zero target.
... Several countries in the south of Europe, such Portugal, still have a relevant percentage of green energy production from hydro, solar and wind sources, which are good examples of sustainable energy generation [92][93][94][95]. The favorable geography and environmental conditions of Portugal influence the types of HE opportunities that are most viable and relevant. ...
... The EU has been increasing its investment in research and innovation for the further development of projects that could contribute to more sustainable earthworks infrastructures. For example, Portugal and Spain can join knowledge, innovation, energy plans and infrastructure for setting up EH plants throughout the Iberic Peninsula [95]. Therefore, there are also opportunities in interconnecting systems between countries that could be advantageous to lower costs and enhance the potential of these systems to produce energy for exportation. ...
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Geoenvironmental engineering involves defining solutions for complex problems, such as containment systems management, contaminant transport control, wastewater management, remediation of contaminated sites and valorization of geomaterials and wastes. In the last years, energy harvesting (EH)—or energy scavenging—methods and technologies have been developed to reduce the dependence on traditional energy sources, namely fossil fuels, and nuclear power, also responding to the increase in energy demands for human activities and to fulfill sustainable development goals. EH in geoenvironmental works and the surrounding soil and water environment includes a set of processes for capturing and accumulating energy from several sources considered wasted or unusable associated with soil dynamics; the stress and strain of geomaterials, hydraulic, vibrations, biochemical, light, heating and wind sources can be potential EH systems. Therefore, this work presents a review of the literature and critical analysis on the main opportunities for EH capturing, accumulating and use in geoenvironmental works, among basic electric concepts and mechanisms, analyzing these works in complex conditions involving biological-, chemical-, mechanical-, hydraulic- and thermal-coupled actions, concluding with the main investigation and challenges within geoenvironmental aspects for EH purposes.
... Most often, such models are partial equilibrium models [16]. This group includes PRIMES [17][18][19], POLES [20,21] PLEXOS [19,22], MARKAL [23,24], EFOM, MESSAGE [19,20] and TIMES [25][26][27][28][29], which is an integrated system of MARKAL-EFOM models developed within the framework of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). These models are most frequently used to determine the optimal energy mix [30]. ...
... The TIMES-PL model of the Polish energy system was used in this study. It was built with the use of the TIMES model generator, which has found applications in many projects around the world as a tool used to analyze energy systems at various temporal and spatial scales, from local [44] and national [26,28,45,46] to global [47,48]. Such a wide range of applications and such a well-described and verified methodology are undoubtedly its great advantages [49,50]. ...
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The Polish power system has been reducing its impact on the environment for a long time, mainly through modernization and investments in new generation capacities, including renewable energy technologies. However, its starting point is still more difficult compared to other less coal-dependent power systems in the European Union. The study was conducted in the direction of optimizing the Polish energy mix of electricity generation from the perspective of 2050. Two energy scenarios for the possible transformation of the Polish power system towards achieving at least a 95% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 with an increasing share of renewables were analyzed. The study was carried out with the use of the TIMES-PL model, which minimizes the total system cost over the analyzed time horizon. The model was calibrated according to data from 2018. The two scenarios show relatively similar pathways for CO2 emission reductions by 2050. In the case of no investment in nuclear power plants, power plants equipped with CO2 capture and storage systems are an alternative solution for achieving climate neutrality and increasing national energy security.
... Portugal has taken a strong international stance on decarbonizing its economy and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 [99]. This goal aligns with the Paris Agreement, reflecting Portugal's commitment to the global effort of limiting temperature increases [100]. The country has set a target to phase out coal in energy production by 2023 [101]. ...
... aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 [99]. This goal aligns with the Paris Agreement, reflecting Portugal's commitment to the global effort of limiting temperature increases [100]. The country has set a target to phase out coal in energy production by 2023 [101]. ...
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Fossil fuels, especially coal, contribute to carbon emissions, hindering the EU’s decarbonization goal by 2050. This article proposes converting the Pego Coal Power Plant into a biomass plant as a potential solution. Biomass, a renewable resource abundant in Portugal, can transform the Pego plant into a sustainable energy source, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change. It also reduces rural fire risks and ensures regional social and economic stability. The study explores the feasibility, limitations, and socioeconomic impacts of this scenario. This solution prevents plant closure, reduces environmental impacts, and promotes sustainability. Aligning with Portugal’s 2030 Agenda and global climate change efforts, converting the Pego plant serves as a valuable example of renewable resource utilization for climate change mitigation and regional stability. The study’s results offer insights for policymakers and stakeholders in developing sustainable energy transition strategies. Adopting such solutions can help countries achieve decarbonization goals while promoting social and economic development.
... Energy system models are widely used to understand the complexity of a region's or country's energy system and to provide insights on the development of policies to restructure towards a low-emissions economy. Many studies have used this modelling framework to evaluate options for cost-effective low-carbon energy systems with respect to the deep decarbonisation perspective [41,42,21,43,44]. Like many other energy systems models, TIMES is a partial equilibrium linear optimisation model, covering the entire energy system's technological details, imports, fuel production, and energy conversion and demand technologies. ...
... Like many other energy systems models, TIMES is a partial equilibrium linear optimisation model, covering the entire energy system's technological details, imports, fuel production, and energy conversion and demand technologies. The TIMES energy system modelling framework is built and maintained by the IEA's ETSAP [41,45]. TIMES model combines the Market Allocation Model (MARKAL) and Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM) models. ...
Article
Deep decarbonisation pathways can enable the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia to reach a net-zero emissions reduction goal and contribute to global mitigation efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C by mid-century. This paper explores minimum cost solutions for achieving the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for NSW, using an Australian implementation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy system modelling framework. This paper investigated possible decarbonisation pathways and available technology options to reach the target. It includes both a higher emissions reference case scenario and a scenario implementing the NSW state government's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 under the NSW Climate Change Policy Framework, consistent with the international Paris Agreement on climate change, with available and viable well-developed technologies. The findings show that the NSW energy system can continue its shift from fossil fuels to renewables like solar, wind, and hydro and can entirely phase out coal- and gas-fired electricity generation by 2050. The deployment of zero-emissions technologies along with policy supports are crucial to achieving deep decarbonisation of the NSW economy by 2050. In addition, electrification and energy efficiency improvements play a significant role in the end-use sector's energy consumption reduction in the coming decades. This paper shows that the electricity sector is the dominant contributor to emission reductions up to the year 2030, while transport, buildings, and industry sectors are set to decarbonise later in the projection period (2030-2050) along this least-cost trajectory. However, the NSW government's aspirational target of net-zero emissions by 2050 can be achieved by 2039 by offsetting negative emissions.
... However, the high economy [40]. Portugal is considered by some authors, such as Amorim et al. (2014), as a country with high economic opportunities due to its proximity to Spain, which can be beneficial in terms of cost-benefits to achieve the decarbonization of the electricity sector [41]. Like other European countries, Portugal has committed to achieve its carbon neutrality by 2050, with 0% GHGs emissions [42]. ...
... However, the high economy [40]. Portugal is considered by some authors, such as Amorim et al. (2014), as a country with high economic opportunities due to its proximity to Spain, which can be beneficial in terms of cost-benefits to achieve the decarbonization of the electricity sector [41]. Like other European countries, Portugal has committed to achieve its carbon neutrality by 2050, with 0% GHGs emissions [42]. ...
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Energy consumption is associated with economic growth, but it comes with a toll regarding the environment. Renewable energies can be considered substitutes for fossil fuels and may contribute to reducing the environmental degradation that the world is presently facing. With this research, we aimed to offer a broader view of the state-of-the-art in this field, particularly regarding coal and biomass. The main objective is to present a viable and sustainable solution for the coal power plants still in operation, using as a hypothetical example the Pego Power Plant, the last operating coal fueled power plant in Portugal. After the characterization of land use and energy production in Portugal, and more particularly in the Médio Tejo region, where the power plant is located, the availability of biomass was assessed and it was concluded that the volume of biomass needed to keep the Pego power plant working exclusively with biomass is much lower than the yearly growth volume of biomass in the region, which means that this transition would be viable in a sustainable way. This path is aligned with policies to fight climate change, since the use of biomass for energy is characterized by low levels of GHGs emissions when compared to coal. The risk of rural fires would be reduced, and the economic and social impact for this region would be positive.
... améliorations relevées dans le travail de A. Djemaa [99]. Toutes ces fonctionnalités font de TIMES un générateur de modèles dont le périmètre géographique peut varier d'une localité au monde entier [103], [63], [104], [105], [106], [107]- [111]. Il se base sur une représentation technologique détaillée du système énergétique allant de l'import ou de l'extraction de la ressource primaire à la consommation finale par secteur. ...
... Elles sont caractérisées par une efficacité de 80%. Le temps de décharge63 de ces dernières peut varier de quelques heures à des dizaines d'heures. Pour calibrer le facteur de capacité maximal au cours d'une journée et la production minimale annuelle, nous nous appuyons sur les données de l'ENTSO-E et de l'IRENA. ...
Thesis
L’électricité tient indéniablement une place prépondérante dans les sociétés modernes. Elle constitue un des moteurs de la croissance économique et innombrables sont aujourd’hui les usages finaux dépendant des flux d’électrons. Face aux défis du changement climatique, différents objectifs à moyen ou long terme servent à guider l’action politique vers la décarbonisation du mix de production électrique majoritairement fossile. L’évolution du mix européen en particulier est marquée par l’intégration d’une part croissante de moyens renouvelables intermittents. La forte dépendance climatique de ce mode de production, vouée à croître dans le futur, soulève néanmoins des questions sur l’opération du système électrique. Comment la forte interdépendance entre les systèmes interconnectés évoluera-t-elle face à la distribution géographique variable de la production intermittente ? Quels sont les besoins de flexibilité/de coopération associés à cette évolution ? Dans quelle mesure l’incertitude climatique pourrait-elle affecter les objectifs de long terme ? A travers la modélisation prospective des systèmes énergétiques, il est possible d’identifier sur un horizon temporel fini et sous diverses contraintes, une architecture optimale des flux de commodités et des technologies (actuelles et futures) conduisant à une satisfaction de la demande finale à un coût total minimal. Dans le cadre de systèmes interconnectés incluant de la production renouvelable, cette exploration à long terme est rendue plus complexe du fait de la variabilité climatique et des différentes formes d’incertitudes induites. Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre du projet Clim2Power regroupant 12 équipes de recherche à travers toute l’Europe et visant à traduire des données de projections climatiques en données opérationnelles pour les différents acteurs du secteur électrique. Nous y développons un nouveau modèle d’optimisation bottom-up de type MARKAL TIMES du système électrique européen (eTIMES-EU). Il réalise une description détaillée de son infrastructure et de son fonctionnement infra-journalier servant à discuter son évolution à long terme. A travers celui-ci, nous proposons une approche originale pour traiter de l’incidence de la variabilité climatique sur la demande électrique, les ressources solaires, éoliennes et hydrauliques dans des scénarios contrastés portant sur le mix électrique européen à l'horizon 2050. Ces scénarios, formulés autour de différents niveaux d’engagement dans la décarbonisation, intègrent des hypothèses sur les niveaux de demande futurs, la disponibilité des technologies, l’utilisation des interconnexions et les politiques nationales face aux moyens charbon et nucléaire. Nous proposons de plus une approche numérique qui traite de la résolution des problèmes multi-régions. Elle permet, grâce à la relaxation lagrangienne, de traiter des sous problèmes équivalents plus faciles à résoudre et fournissant une heuristique dans la résolution du problème global.
... Moreover, all the investments needed to reach that balance by the end of the planning horizon are optimally distributed across the planning period, so that the total surplus is maximized. MARKAL-based framework was widely utilized to assess developmental directions and the velocity of technological transition mainly for the energy sector, also towards its decarbonization, in Canada [23], Quebec [24], Switzerland [25], Malaysia [26], Russia [27], the UK [28][29][30][31] and the US [32,33], Austria [34], China [35,36], Portugal [37][38][39], China [40,41], Italy [42], Iran [43], Turkey [44], Kazakhstan [45], Ireland [46], Poland [47], Greece [48] nad Bulgaria [34]. ...
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Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) struggles with significant policy and operational challenges, particularly concerning recyclables collection routes and fleet composition. Within the European Union, phasing out traditional fuel-based vocational vehicles, like garbage trucks, in favor of zero-emission alternatives is mandatory to achieve sustainable development objectives. Integrating electric solid waste collection vehicles into municipal fleets presents challenges due to differences in range, capacity, and noise levels. The emission is even more crucial in the systems where recyclables are collected separately, which requires a greater number of trips to be performed. This study addresses MSWM’s strategic aspect by minimizing the total cost of replacing waste collection vehicles while meeting emission constraints. The Fleet Transition Problem (FTP) was formulated and solved using a MARKAL-based approach. The objective of the FTP and a mixed integer linear program used to solve it is minimizing the overall cost of fleet modernization throughout a multi-phase planning horizon so that the sustainable transition of the fleet can be assured. Computational experiments affirmed the model’s effectiveness in strategizing fleet transition. This research outlines a multi-period model for transitioning to a zero-emission fleet and demonstrates the FTP’s potential for strategic decision-making. Notably, the study observes a consistent reduction in permissible emissions across the planning horizon.
... Moreover, all the investments needed to reach that balance by the end of the planning horizon are optimally distributed across the planning period, so that the total surplus is maximized. The MARKALbased framework was widely utilized to assess developmental directions and the velocity of technological transition mainly for the energy sector, also towards its decarbonization, in Canada [28,29], Switzerland [30], Malaysia [31], Russia [32], the UK [33][34][35][36], the USA [37,38], Austria [39], China [40][41][42][43], Portugal [44][45][46], Italy [47], Iran [48], Turkey [49], Kazakhstan [50], Ireland [51], Poland [52], Greece [53], and Bulgaria [39]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) struggles with significant policy and operational challenges, particularly concerning collection routes for recyclables and fleet composition. Within the European Union, phasing out traditional fuel-based vocational vehicles, like garbage trucks, in favor of zero-emission alternatives, is mandatory to achieve sustainable development objectives. This paper presents a preliminary study on the problem of multi-period fleet transition from combustive fuels towards more eco-friendly fueling types. Initially developed for energy sector, the MARKAL framework was used here to support the technological transition of the fleet. The mixed-integer program was formulated for the Fleet Transition Problem (FTP), a simplified theoretical problem. The objective of the FTP and a mixed-integer linear program used to solve it is minimizing the overall cost of fleet modernization throughout a multi-phase planning horizon so that the sustainable transition of the fleet can be assured. Computational experiments run on randomly generated data instances affirmed the model’s effectiveness in strategizing fleet transition. This research outlines a multi-period model for transitioning to a zero-emission fleet and demonstrates the FTP’s potential for strategic decision-making. Notably, the study observes consistent reductions in permissible emissions across the planning horizon.
... International Journal of Energy Research policymaking and implementation [127,128]. Energy planning models are key to energy security and decarbonization of the sector [126], allowing multicriteria analyses of the effects of energy policies on the economy and environment. Scenario analysis is commonly employed in modelling tools to evaluate various assumptions about technology, environment, and economic variables. ...
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The energy sector accounts for about two-thirds of all human-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to the reliance on fossil-based fuels. This is a significant concern as it can have dire consequences on the survival of humankind and disrupt other natural processes. The research indicated that some mitigation measures to curb GHG emissions are to increase energy from low-carbon sources such as nuclear. However, due to the continuous adverse climate change impact, a comprehensive systematic review of research in this area must be conducted to inform policy practice and future studies. This study attempts to address this gap by mapping the global reflections on the potential of nuclear technology to mitigate GHG through a bibliometric review process. A total of 741 studies were retrieved from the Scopus database and a few from Google Scholar, spanning from 1962 to 2022, and analyzed using a science mapping tool—VOSviewer. The study confirmed that fossil fuels are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions and contributor to greenhouse emissions. Those authors concluded that promoting clean and alternative energy sources to fossil fuels would help reduce carbon emissions. Although renewable energy has proven to be very efficient among pollution and climate change mitigation sources, nuclear energy is the most dependable option for meeting national and regional CO2 emission targets while meeting energy supply needs. The bibliometric analysis with VOSviewer suggested that only five African countries, including Ghana, have contributed to the research area with limited collaboration. As a result, it calls for stakeholders to make informed decisions to invest resources in research to address the challenge on the continent. The MESSAGE planning model is recommended for the study.
... These studies have spanned Europe (Amorim et al., 2014;Heuberger et al., 2017;Keatley & Hewitt, 2008;Knorr et al., 2014;Pleβmann & Blechinger, 2017;Schlachtberger et al., 2017), Australia (Elliston et al., 2014;Lenzen et al., 2016;Riesz et al., 2015), South America (Costa et al., 2022;Odeh & Watts, 2019), and North America (MacDonald et al., 2016;Mai et al., 2014;McPherson, 2023;Mileva et al., 2016;Radpour et al., 2021;Safaei & Keith, 2015;Sepulveda et al., 2018;Shaner et al., 2018). They vary from full net-zero electricity emission modelling e.g., (Ruhnau & Qvist, 2022) to pathway modelling which includes intermediary carbon constraints e.g., (Duan et al., 2022), and from simpler copper plate models e.g., (Tong et al., 2020) to advanced capacity expansion and unit commitment models e.g., (de Sisternes et al., 2016). ...
Article
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In response to climate change, electricity grids are decreasing their carbon intensity with the addition of wind and solar variable generation (VREN). This leads to a mid-transition period, where renewable energy is unable satisfy electricity demand without contributions from other fossil sources such as natural gas , but also generates sufficiently to constrain conventional generation—changing their operating and market conditions. We use a simplified copper plate model, which scales up and down historical wind and solar generation, to examine how and when the patterns and generation costs for fossil fuel power could change by the increasing capacities of VREN on the relatively isolated Alberta electricity grid. We find that beginning at 20% VREN an increasingly diverse range and reduced hours of dispatched capacity is necessitated from the existing generation. However, even as capacity factors for fossil fuel generation decrease their costs remain reasonable and we found this to be a low-cost pathway for achieving moderate to deep emission reduction goals. A full 86% of demand could be met with VREN before generation costs exceeded 100$/MWh, allowing for an emissions reduction of 28.4 to 9 million tonnes/year of CO2eq, on a lifecycle basis. In order to capture and use the renewable generation, new and existing fossil fuel units require market incentives both for flexibility and to ensure they remain in place throughout the transitionary period as they are crucial to backstop variable renewable generation.
... Over the years, TIMES has shown itself to be a reliable framework for examining the dynamic transformation of the energy system. It has been applied in many studies for national-level energy system analysis, such as Switzerland [16]ambitious carbon dioxide (CO2 and Portugal [17]combined with new generating technologies, we evaluate its importance by modelling the Portuguese system either as an isolated or as part of an integrated Iberian system. To design the low carbon roadmap for 2050 in Portugal, TIMES -The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM (MARKet ALlocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model. ...
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Nigeria's Vision 30-30-30 (V30) outlines an ambitious goal of incorporating 13.8 GW of renewable energy (RE), a 30% share of the total electricity generation capacity mix, by 2030. However, there are still some challenges to be overcome before the full realization of this vision. In this paper, we examine some of these challenges from the technical, environmental, and economic perspectives and outline policy recommendations to facilitate the realization of this energy vision. From a technical perspective, we examine the voltage profiles at different stages of RE intake to demonstrate a compelling technical case for RE integration. Our analysis suggests that the Nigerian electricity grid will require massive infrastructure investments and smart controls to maintain system security. From an environmental perspective, aggressively pursuing V30 will reduce CO2 emissions by ~12% and substantially decrease air pollutants in 2030. From an economic perspective, massive market reforms are required to attract investments. We estimate that an additional 24% increase in average annual investment is required to make V30 a reality. Our model projects that achieving V30 will increase market revenue from on-grid generation by ~146% in 2030. Finally, we propose robust financing models and highlight policy reforms needed to establish a competitive electricity market.
... Numerous studies looking at the socio-economic optimality of power planning have focused on using cost optimization models like MESSAGE, MARKAL, TIMES, etc. (see, for example, Refs. [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33]). The strategic planning of power planning systems, on the other hand, inevitably incorporates several competing objectives [34][35][36]. ...
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The ever-increasing demand for electricity, as well as its impact on the environment, necessitates expanding the power generation mix of Nigeria by utilizing sustainable energy sources. Power generation planning that is sustainable and efficient must meet various objectives, many of which conflict with one another. Using multi-objective optimization, a model for Nigeria's power supply architecture was developed to integrate indigenous energy sources for a sustainable power generation mix. The model has three conflicting objectives: reducing power generating costs, reducing CO 2 emissions, and increasing jobs. Hybrid Structural Interaction Matrix was utilized to compute the weights of the three objectives for the multi-objective model to be modified into a single-objective model. According to the simulations, Nigeria could address its power supply deficit by generating up to 2,100 TWh of power by 2050. Over the projected period, large hydropower plants and solar PV will be the leading option for Nigeria's power generation mix. Furthermore, power generation from solar thermal, incinerator , nuclear, gas plant, combined plant, and diesel engine will all be part of the power supply mix by 2050. In terms of jobs expected to be created, about 2.05 million jobs will be added by 2050 from the construction and operation of power generation plants. CO 2 emissions will attain 266 M t CO 2 by 2050. The cost of power generation will decline from a maximum of 36 billion USin2030to27.1billionUS in 2030 to 27.1 billion US in 2050. Findings conclude that Nigeria can meet its power supply obligations by harnessing indigenous energy sources into an optimal power supply mix.
... In contrast to the previous studies that reviewed several countries, there were several studies conducted at national and sub-national levels in achieving their decarbonisation targets. However, these studies about Portugal (Amorim et al., 2014;Pina et al., 2013;Krajačić et al., 2011), China (Chen et al., 2020), Europe (van Zuijlen et al., 2019), and Fiji Island (Michalena et al., 2018) mainly focus on the technical aspect. A thorough review which not only looked at the technology aspect, but also policy was conducted by Capros et al. (Capros et al., 2014) and Knopf et al. (Knopf et al., 2013) for EU case study. ...
Article
This study examines the transition of Indonesia's electricity system 2020–2050 to achieve Paris Agreement target using TIMES model. Three scenarios, including Reference Case, Current Policy, and Paris Agreement are reviewed. Reference case system will be 77% dominated by unabated coal power plant, and Current Policy will only reduce its share by 10% in 2050. Furthermore, the emissions from these scenarios are still half of estimated electricity emission in NDC due to different demand level between the policy target and current level indicating the ambition gap. Achieving well below 2°C long-term target, 50% of RE and 40% of IGCC-CCS in electricity production are needed. There will be 48% increase in investment compare to reference case and constant electricity production to current level. Uncertainty of carbon budget will not shift the emission peak or penetration of solar PV utility-scale, but will greatly affect the deployment time, as soon as 2030 or as later as 2040, and capacity of IGCC-CCS and the presence of BECCS up to 2050. Reform of Indonesia's electricity system needs to be carried out because of changes in technology and investment directions, the need to accelerate technological readiness, coupled with the current condition of market structure and electricity prices.
... Technical, economic, social, and environmental parameters are considered for decision-making assistance, even if they are dispersed, due to the complexity of the electricity sector. Optimization tools are used to respond to these requirements, such as EFOM, OREM, GAMS, HOMER, Ener-gyPLAN, ED, OseMOSYS, PLEXOS, MESSAGE, MARKAL, TIMES, LEAP, and MATLAB [86][87][88][89][90][91][92].  Methodologies used to model DR In the literature, models for decision-making combine different technical aspects and scenarios with RESs to evaluate DR programs in WEMs, microgrids, or DNs. ...
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The energy transition has shown that fossil generation can be complemented with renewable energy and other resources capable of providing flexibility to the energy system's operation, in compliance with the wholesale electricity market's rules. This paper proposes a market-based methodology for introducing flexible demand in the energy dispatch , optimizing the scheduling of electricity system operation in the short-term, and considers the challenge of implementing an incentive scheme for participants in demand-response programs. The scheme includes the criteria of the elasticity of substitution and a renewable energy quota. This methodology is focused on a strategic demand shift to minimize the cost of supply; increase the dispatch of renewable energy; control CO2 emissions; and satisfy the generation, demand, and transmission operating constraints. These conditions encourage the development of a simulation tool that allows a sensitivity analysis to aid decision making by operators and agents. The proposed methodology optimizes the operational cost of generation supply and specific performance indicators to determine the percentages of demand shift, the amount of CO2 emissions, the ratio of unserved power, the demand benefits obtained from an incentive scheme, and the natural market behavior.
... Decarbonisation of energy has also been studied extensively both at country, regional, and global levels. Amorim et al. [32] investigated decarbonisation pathways to 2050 for the Portuguese electricity sector, with focus on the market structure. Although renewable energy developments are a key opportunity, impacts of climate change on supply are not considered. ...
Article
Understanding the impact of climate change on renewable energy resources is increasingly vital as our energy systems transition towards higher levels of renewable generation. This paper explores power system transition under climate change impacts on hydro resources, as well as the impact of climate change on the cost of decarbonisation. An integrated energy systems assessment tool is used to investigate the impact of altered seasonal availability factors on the optimal energy investment pathways. The cost of decarbonisation is assessed under climate change impact on the hydro resources, as well as the impact of discount rate assumptions on the total cost of decarbonisation. Results show that in the case of New Zealand, more hydro will be available in winter due to climate change, but less in summer, which is compensated for with increased solar capacity. Decarbonisation in New Zealand sees a major transformation in the transport sector, supported by a relatively moderate increase in overall demand in the electricity sector. While climate change impact on the hydro resource may reduce the total cost of decarbonisation in New Zealand, this cannot be generalised, as these impacts vary across countries and regions.
... Some studies combine several models to obtain deeper sectoral insights and analyse the effects on the wider economy [32][33][34]. Others focus on a single sector independently of whether the model includes only the sector [35][36][37][38][39] or the whole energy system [40][41][42]. Representing the whole energy system is important when analysing decarbonisation pathways as it allows the representation of trade-offs between sectors under resource constraints [16]. ...
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This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.
... In Tables 1 and 2 [307] utilized a model to find the optimum generation expansion planning of the Southeast Asian countries. Amorim et al. [308] applied TIMES model for electricity application in Portugal up to 2050. Poncelet et al. [309] utilized TIMES model to assess the effect of employing longterm models with low time-based resolution. ...
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Energy is the most important part for community and financial growth of any country. Energy planning models play a vital role in strategy formulation and power sector progress. In this paper a systematic review and comparison of energy planning models developed and applied from 1977-2019 has been presented. The review indicates that most of the energy planning models has been presented and applied in developed nations. Only few numbers of energy planning models have been presented and applied in under developing countries. The review also shows the comparison of energy planning models applied in developed and under-developed countries. This review article will assistance the energy managers, scholars and strategy makers broadly.
... For examples, the cross border Swiss TIMES electricity model (CROSSTEM) has been used to study the impacts of a nuclear phase out under different scenarios for lowcarbon electricity generation in Switzerland and its neighbouring countries [37] . The Portugal TIMES model has also been applied to analyse the cost-optimal pathway for Portugal to realise 100% decarbonisation of its electricity supply system by 2050 [38] . A key characteristic of the TIMES model is its systematic approach to dealing with uncertainties. ...
Article
An attempt has been made using a bottom-up model to examine business-as-usual and 100% renewable electricity generation scenarios for Nigeria. Results indicate that Nigeria can achieve 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050 with the deployment of a mix of renewable energy technologies, especially utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind turbines. CO2 emissions are expected to peak by 2030 and decline to zero in 2050. In terms of total system cost, a transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2050 is a cheaper option compared to the conventional pathway, and it could potentially create around 1.54 million jobs for Nigerians by 2050
... The results suggested that governments should not plan their energy system development in isolation but communicate with affected countries to increase the efficiency and decrease costs. Thus, the transmission infrastructure is expected to play a crucial role in the future [6]. ...
Article
As energy systems will increasingly become renewable, they will face new challenges that mainly arise due to the varying output by many renewable energy technologies. An issue that is especially prominent for countries with high shares of hydropower in their electricity generation is the varying yearly output of these technologies. This work aims to propose a techno-economically optimized energy system for such a country, using Portugal as example. For this purpose the current situation is analyzed and an energy demand model for 2050 created. The energy system is optimized for years with different outputs of hydropower to analyze the system’s behavior using the simulation tool EnergyPLAN. As the tool does not possess inherent optimization capabilities it was coupled with the gray wolf optimization algorithm using Matlab. Subsequently, a system is proposed that is able to cover Portugal’s expected energy demand under all circumstances. The future system will rely strongly on wind and solar power as they are expected to cover around 75% of Portugal’s electricity demand. Furthermore, the analysis showed that Portugal needs to build up electrolyzer capacities of 4.2 GW and SynGas capacities of 2.4 GW as the SynGas will be used to balance supply in demand, especially in years with lower hydropower output. The system’s cost will be between 22 and 35% cheaper than the created reference model. Furthermore, the primary energy demand is expected to decrease from 253 TWh to around 150 TWh while the electricity demand rises from 49 TWh to around 110 TWh.
... Long-term energy planning models have been carried out for different countries around the globe, exploring different objectives but with the goal of enhancing effective policy decision making (Amorim et al., 2014;Das et al., 2018;Foxon, 2013;Min, Ryu, Hyun, & Choi, 2017;Ouedraogo, 2017;Pina, Silva, & Ferrão, 2013, 2011Senatla, Nchake, Taele, & Hapazari, 2018;Zapata, Castaneda, Garces, Franco, & Dyner, 2018). Specific scientific research dedicated to Ghana in relation to future supply capacity model is limited and sporadic, particularly with regards to the introduction of RES and quantification of the cost for reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from electricity generation. ...
Article
Ghana is one of the few countries within the sub-Saharan region which has been successful in reducing energy poverty. However, ensuring energy security, affordability, and environmental sustainability remains a significant challenge for the future development of the sub-region. Here, we examine how the electricity supply can evolve into the future to meet potential emission obligations for the period of 2020–2040. A generation expansion planning model which is able to incorporate the reality of fuel shortages and fuel switching typical of a developing country's power system is used. In doing so, we generate a range of emission reduction costs that provide important benchmarks for the relatively under-studied sub-Saharan region and identify drivers of these costs specific to developing countries. Results indicate that the total discounted cost in expanding generation to meet the demand for all scenarios range from 13–17 billion US,whiletheexpectedemissionrangesfrom99189mtCO2.Subsequently,thecostofmeetingdifferentemissiontargetsupto2040wasquantifiedforeachscenariorangingfrom1139US, while the expected emission ranges from 99–189 mtCO2. Subsequently, the cost of meeting different emission targets up to 2040 was quantified for each scenario ranging from 11–39 US/tonne, which could be used as a benchmark for comparison in developed countries. We find that discount rates, representing Ghana's access to capital, are a particularly important variable for developing countries. We find that lower discount rates can lead to more investment in capital intensive renewable energy in the long run but can also lock in an additional conventional generation investment in the short term. Sensitivity analysis of demand growth reduction shows that with a 1% growth rate, the requirement of generation capacity could be reduced by 84%, providing initial evidence for the benefits of investing in demand-side measures. The study provides data and policy recommendations needed to inform decision-makers in developing countries as well as a comparison point for identifying decarbonization costs internationally.
... For example, Amorim et al. (2014) have used a TIMES approach to analyze possibilities to fully decarbonize electricity generation in Portugal by 2050, in order to contribute to a deep decarbonization of the Portuguese energy sector. To this end, two cases were considered: (1) the Portuguese generation sector is optimized as an isolated system, and (2) the latter is part of an integrated Iberian system (Portugal and Spain). ...
Chapter
This chapter discusses how hydrogen can replace the traditional energy sources and it can make global transition possible to 100% renewable energy. It focuses on three different aspects namely; renewable energy sources, hydrogen production system using renewable energy sources in terms of electricity and thermal energy and the services and applications where hydrogen can be employed. A classification is made showing the types of the renewable energy sources and their applications for production of heat, electricity or fuel extracted from the described sources, hydrogen production methods from these commodities and usage of hydrogen in different industries. In the renewable hydrogen production methods section, a system for each renewable source is presented which can be integrated with the renewable energy source for hydrogen production. A case study is presented which uses the wind energy source for electricity production. A part of electricity is supplied to the community while remaining is employed to the proton exchange membrane electrolyser to produce hydrogen. The produced hydrogen is stored by passing through multistage compression system and stored in the storage tank. During the intervals of low wind speed, the stored hydrogen is fed to the proton exchange membrane fuel cell which produces electrical power and heat for the community. Numerous parametric studies are conducted to explore how designed case study operates under different conditions. This chapter covers all the renewable energy sources and presents the potential of implementing hydrogen as a source for the global transition to 100% renewable energy.
... For example, Amorim et al. (2014) have used a TIMES approach to analyze possibilities to fully decarbonize electricity generation in Portugal by 2050, in order to contribute to a deep decarbonization of the Portuguese energy sector. To this end, two cases were considered: (1) the Portuguese generation sector is optimized as an isolated system, and (2) the latter is part of an integrated Iberian system (Portugal and Spain). ...
Chapter
Mathematical models of energy-economy-environmental systems (E3) provide a rational framework for exploring the effects of energy and climate policies and support adequate decision-making. Numerous models have been developed over the years with different solution approaches, features, geographical scope and time resolution. There is no complete or ideal models but different models that answer different questions or similar questions with different perspectives. Developed since the early 1980s, the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) optimization models have contributed to support decision-making at various geographical scales from global to city levels. In this Chapter, we distinguish a set of national studies that performed TIMES model developments to study the energy transition and address the impacts of integrating high levels of renewable energies on the system. Each study follows a different approach with the sole purpose to optimize the energy used in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Examples of applications are provided to illustrate the rich potential of optimization models for assisting decision makers with climate change mitigation. In particular, a special attention is given to the electricity sector as electrification of end-uses and decarbonization of the electricity sector are consistent priorities of actions across studies.
... The feasibility of regional energy trading, the diversification of the primary energy supply-mix, the implications of including additional renewable energy technologies into the energy system, and the identification of national/regional energy policies for the development of sustainable Selected national-scale applications of these models include: energy and emissions forecast for China [4], electricity supply assessment for South Africa [5], future technology choices for Bangladesh's power sector development [8], strategies to control GHG emissions in China [9], deep decarbonization pathways for Canada [10], benefits assessment of sectoral demand-side flexibility in the United Kingdom [11], German residential heat systems planning [12], electricity decarbonization pathways for Portugal [13], integration of household preferences for heating technologies in the United Kingdom [14], energy outlook to 2050 for Canada [15], multipollutant power sector policies for the U.S. [16], elasticities of substitution applied to incorporate transport modal shifts in Denmark [17], and 100% renewable and reliable power systems for Réunion Island, France [18]. ...
Article
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This paper develops a regional TIMES modelling framework for the electricity sector of the Eastern Nile Basin region, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, to assess the potential of energy trading for cross-border collaboration in this rapidly growing sector. Four alternative scenarios are developed for the 2014–2050 period to assess national and regional benefits of alternative energy development strategies. The study finds that electricity trading scenarios out-perform a reference scenario that assumes no energy trading, lowering systems cost by 4.5–7.2%. Total systems costs are lower, even when transmission costs for trade are considered. Costs are also lower with increased generation from renewables compared to investments without regional trade. Investing in renewables has important co-benefits, such as improved energy security and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Supporting energy trade not only reduces systems costs, but can also strengthen cooperation in the region, as reflected in the energy trading efforts of the East African Power Pool and the transboundary collaboration efforts of the Nile Basin Initiative.
... Mirzaesmaeeli et al. [4] developed a model with MILP framework for power generation planning to determine the optimal combination of energy supply mix and emission reduction measures for specified electricity demand and emission targets. Amorim et al. [5] used TIMES framework to analyze the cost effective opportunities to achieve decarbonization of power sector in isolated and interconnected system scenarios for Portugal by 2050. Past literature on carbon emission mitigation in power sector is summarized in Table 1. ...
Article
Current electricity markets operate on a cost minimizing objective for power supply. However, countries across the world need to decarbonize their power systems in line with their policy objectives to mitigate climate change. In this context, this paper presents a framework to analyze synergies and trade-offs in cost and emission minimization strategies in the power sector. Emission minimizing objective can reduce emissions from existing fleets having flexibility in electricity supply, regardless of renewable energy capacity additions. This framework can also provide us with win-win strategies for reducing emissions while keeping costs low. An optimization model is developed for case study of India with data of 568 coal and 199 gas thermal units to analyze alternative real time dispatch and operating strategies. The cost and emission optimal supply strategies are compared in terms of power plant operations, emission reductions, and resulting cost of carbon abatement. The results show that 9.8% of carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced with 19% increment in the cost of electricity in emission minimizing strategy with respect to cost minimization. The operations in emission optimal supply strategy require additional 28 million dollars per day. The cost of carbon abatement is 99–129 dollars per tonne.
... For instance, Refs. [22][23][24] investigate decarbonization pathways and the need for new investments in transmission capacities in South Korea, Portugal and Switzerland respectively using TIMES models. However, these studies do not consider regional differences and actor diversity within this sector. ...
Article
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The German energy supply sector is becoming diverse and dispersed due to the variety of actors investing in energy generation technologies and spatially variable renewable resources, which bring about increased heterogeneity in the investment decisions of actors. Therefore, the effective utilization of renewable resources towards a cost-optimal achievement of the "Energy Transition" goals is becoming more complex. We argue that addressing these complexities requires a method, which, in addition to a fine technological and regional characterization , takes into account the heterogeneity of the investment decisions of actors while optimizing the total system. This paper describes methodological improvements via the well-known energy system optimization model generator called The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (i.e. TIMES), which enhances the representation of the actors' investment realities regarding wind and photovoltaic technologies applied to the case of the German supply sector. Firstly, the actors are disaggregated by their main economic features, including cost of capital, representing their different investment valuations and budget restrictions. Then, Germany is divided into four regions to reflect the spatially variable renewable resources and electricity demand affecting actors' optimal decisions. Lastly, the grid development costs and losses are considered, especially for power transmission across the regions. The newly developed TIMES Actors Model (TAM) incorporating these improvements is then tested to separately study the impact of CO 2 taxes as a policy instrument and a national renewable quota as a target for the sector. The results showed that CO 2 taxes and renewable targets affect the system quite differently, specifically regarding the optimal role that actors are expected to play within regions to meet the objectives of energy transitions at least system costs as well as regarding the power transmission between the regions. By means of these findings, actors can be targeted more properly by actor-and region-specific policy instruments demonstrating which actor should invest where and into which technology, so that the energy transition can take place more quickly and at lower system costs. A comparison of the improved versus original versions of the model reveals the potential contribution of improving the representation of actors that have been so far overlooked in the energy system modelling practice.
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Megacities are major contributors to global road CO2 emissions, highlighting their pivotal role in achieving low-carbon development. However, comprehensive studies on emission patterns and decarbonization strategies in these metropolitan areas remain limited. This study presents a novel and portable big data-based workflow for megacities to reveal their spatiotemporal dynamics of road CO2 emissions and quantify decarbonization potentials associated with inter-city travel and the 15-minute city concept. We take Guangzhou City (China) as a case study. Our results reveal that primary purpose trips produce 17 % more CO2 emissions than secondary trips on average. Inter-city trips account for 36.3 % of the total emissions in the city, and those for primary purposes exhibit closer spatial distributions with intra-city trips. While providing more 15-minute-walk POIs exhibits a marginally diminishing effect on reducing trip average emissions, comprehensive implementation of the 15-minute city concept in Guangzhou can reduce up to 56.3 % of the total emissions from non-home-related passenger trips, with variations observed across different trip purposes (40 %–70 %). A significant “head effect” of decarbonization potential across communities exists for all trip purposes. Our study highlights the environmental limitations of monocentric urban planning models in megacities and contributes valuable insights for crafting effective strategies for sustainable urban development.
Article
This study evaluates the impact of a carbon tax on CO2 emissions in Costa Rica. For the above, a demand system is estimated using data from a household expenditure survey, which allows for obtaining the elasticities of demand for various groups of goods focused on energy. Then, the environmental extension of the Leontief price model is implemented to determine the change in prices caused by different carbon tax rates (25, 50, 75, and 100 USD/ton CO2). Subsequently, both models are linked to obtain the variations in production and sectoral emissions. In addition, a Monte Carlo simulation is carried out since the estimated price elasticities have a standard deviation associated with them. The results suggest that carbon taxes mainly affect transportation, while the rest of the sectors have slight impacts in all simulated scenarios. For example, the drop in total CO2 emissions is explained between 89.6% and 91.3% by the decrease in emissions in the passenger transport and other transport sectors with a 95% confidence interval. The previous is explained by the composition of Costa Rica's energy matrix, which has a very high share of renewable energies. Finally, some climate policy options are suggested to contribute to this country's carbon neutrality.
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The circulating and ecological sphere (CES) concept promotes a self-reliant decentralised society by utilising regional resources to achieve decarbonisation. The concept is particularly relevant to depopulated areas across Japan facing a continuous increase of underutilised agricultural land that brings environmental, social and economic challenges. This study recognises such land as a locally available resource to be re-utilised under the CES framework and mitigate issues in a depopulating community. Using the case of the Hachinohe City Region in Japan, this paper explores alternative land-use scenarios and identifies policy interventions to implement a desirable scenario that would contribute to the localisation of Net-Zero and regional revitalisation. The scenarios developed based on land-use change analysis, policy reviews and stakeholder interviews were: (1) an energy-dominant scenario (installing a photovoltaic system) and (2) an agriculture–energy combination scenario (installing an agrivoltaic system). The analysis shows that under both scenarios, Hachinohe City Region can achieve 100% renewable energy. There are other benefits, including job creation and, in the case of the agriculture-solar scenario, contribution to domestic food supply resiliency. The study recommends three policy interventions: (1) collaboration amongst the members of the city region to achieve its own carbon–neutral electricity supply; (2) investment for areas without transmission lines to fully benefit from their regional resources; and (3) support for local initiatives where local communities co-manage the resources and co-benefit from them. Based on the results, the paper further highlights the potential of the CES approach to deliver just transition from a spatial perspective.
Article
Endogenous and exogenous uncertainties exert significant influences on energy planning. In this study, we propose a systematic methodology to excavate the uncertainty space, by combining mix-integer linear programming (MILP), Monte Carlo simulation, and machine learning for quantification of the uncertainty impacts on a national-level energy system from global and local perspectives. This approach allows in-depth correlation analysis highlighting potential synergies and risks in the energy transition, and can be easily applied for assisting policy making. The case study for Switzerland shows that both carbon neutrality (even negative emissions) and energy autonomy can be achieved by 2050, but the energy system’s configuration varies significantly under uncertainty. Through conditional distribution analyses, carbon capture and storage (CCS), Photovoltaic (PV), and wood gasification show the most strong correlation for decarbonization. This study is based on the whole uncertainty space taking into account heterogeneous uncertainties, leading to increased reliability compared to sensitivity analysis from single scenarios’ comparisons. The synergy between energy models and artificial intelligence (AI) is promising to be widely applied in energy planning area, particularly for emerging technologies with large uncertainty in development.
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Concerns related to climate change and global warming caused by anthropogenic activities and in particular fossil energy use have been increasing lately. Air pollution and volatile conventional fuel prices emphasize the need to transition the energy system towards very high shares of renewables. 100% renewable energy systems have been analyzed by many researchers starting from 1975. This bibliometric analysis reviews more than 600 scientific articles in which 100% renewable energy systems were surveyed. This study uses tools of bibliometric analysis, based on publication databases and data mining, together with review elements to understand the current status and trend of 100% renewable energy systems research. The focus of results is on quantitative parameters relating to number and publication types, collaborative links among authors, institutions, and countries. Collaborative networks provide the significant concentration of published papers within organizations and co-authorships globally. The results reveal that the dominant organizations and thus number of published papers are from Europe and the USA; however, almost all the established research organizations in the field of energy system analysis are not active in the field of 100% renewable energy systems analyses. The journals Energy and Applied Energy have the most articles, and accordingly the most citations. EnergyPLAN and LUT Energy System Transition Model have been the most active tools used to analyze 100% renewable energy systems according to numbers of articles and received citations. The topic of modeling approach indicates the term ’Energy System’ has the highest frequency due to its emergence in the articles. This research provides a holistic overview on the more than four decades of research, and it reveals dynamics within the field with a compound annual growth rate of articles of 26% for the 2010s, the trend of publications, and author growth that comprises now almost 1400 authors with articles in the field.
Article
Integrating intermittent wind and solar generation into the grid has system integration costs of spinning reserves, increased transmission, and storage. As the penetration of wind and solar generation increase, system integration costs need to be considered, but there are also emissions savings. A TIMES model for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator footprint using publicly available data was used to examine system integration costs and emissions savings benefits of high penetration of intermittent renewable electricity. TIMES is a bottom-up optimization model that minimizes the total system cost. The number of time slices was increased to capture wind and solar generation dynamics, to better understand spinning reserves costs, and to allow battery storage. Using candidate sites for solar and wind generation, transmission, investment and production costs were added. Total system costs increased as there were higher transmission and spinning reserve costs. The emissions savings of Carbon Dioxide equivalent, Sulphur Dioxide, and Particulate Matter were converted to economic benefits using the Social Costs of Emissions. As the penetration of wind and solar generation increases, emissions savings and economic benefits increase. The system integration costs are greater than the benefits of emissions savings. The economic benefits do not justify the system integration cost increases.
Article
Energy systems analyses are integrated elements in planning the transition towards renewable energy-based energy systems. This is due to a growing complexity arising from the wider exploitation of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) and an increasing reliance on sector integration as an enabler of temporal energy system integration, but it calls for consideration to the validity of modelling tools. This article synthesises EnergyPLAN applications through an analysis of its use both from a bibliometric and a case-geographical point of view and through a review of the evolution in the issues addressed and the results obtained using EnergyPLAN. This synthesis is provided with a view to addressing the validity and contribution of EnergyPLAN-based research. As of July 1st, 2022, EnergyPLAN has been applied in 315 peer-reviewed articles, and we see the very high application as an inferred internal validation. In addition, the review shows how the complexity of energy systems analyses has increased over time with early studies focusing on the role of wind power and the cogeneration of heat and power and later studies addressing contemporarily novel issues like the sector integration offered by using power-to-x in fully integrated renewable energy systems. Important findings developed through the application of EnergyPLAN includes the value of district heating in energy systems, the value of district heating for integration of VRES and more generally the importance of sector integration for resource-efficient renewable energy-based energy systems. The wide application across systems and development stages is interpreted as inferred validation through distributed stepwise replication.
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Transformation towards climate-neutral energy systems is becoming a challenge worldwide. Most often, strategic planning for the mid- and long-term is tackled with the use of generation expansion optimization models, which have limited capabilities to track in detail power system operation. On the other hand, the unit commitment and economic dispatch models consider many technical constraints but are usually used for short-term planning. The methodological approach presented in this paper aims to improve the planning capabilities by the combination of generation expansion and short-term planning models into one modelling system. Two models were coupled, namely TIMES-PL and MEDUSA, to design a pathway to carbon neutrality in the Polish power system. Three energy scenarios elaborated in this work show that a 95 % reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the public electricity and district heat production sectors is possible by 2050. The proposed approach improved the robustness of elaborated energy scenarios as in their first versions two of them turned out to be technically infeasible. Detail simulations of the system operation showed that load balancing is possible once 15–20 GW of electrical capacity is installed in dispatchable power generation technologies by 2050 in addition to energy storage and combined heat and power plants.
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Deep decarbonisation – i.e. the transition towards net-zero emissions energy systems – will be enabled by a high penetration of intermittent renewables, storage and sector-coupling technologies. In this paper, we present a novel modelling approach to capture the increasing complexity of such future energy systems and help policy makers choose among the different possible transition scenarios. Salient features of our model, consisting of an extended and regionalised version of EnergyScope (Limpens et al., 2019 [1]), are a low computational time and a concise formulation which make it suitable for uncertainty and what-if analyses. As a case study, the model is applied to devise scenarios for the Italian energy transition. Specifically, we develop the first open-source whole-energy system model of Italy and assess the feasibility of its decarbonisation strategy with respect to uncertainties in the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable technologies. Results show that emissions can be cut by 79%–97% vs. 1990 levels thanks to a radical electrification of the energy system coupled to a wide deployment of renewables and efficient energy conversion technologies. Finally, we discuss the synergies, advantages and disadvantages of our proposed approach with respect to alternative modelling approaches used across 88 recent deep decarbonisation studies. The analysis suggests that our model, thanks to its computational efficiency and a snapshot approach (i.e., modelling a target-year in the future), can complement more detailed and established energy models optimising the energy transition pathway (i.e., modelling the pathway from today to the target year).
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This study presents a new methodology, based on Monte-Carlo techniques to evaluate the reliability of a carbon-free electricity generation system based on renewable sources; it uses as inputs the variation of the electricity demand and the fluctuations in the renewable supply and provides the renewable system to be installed to guarantee a specific supply reliability level. Additionally, looking for a reduction of this renewable system, the methodology determines the improvements by the incorporation of nuclear power and electricity storage. The methodology is of general application, its implementation being possible under different contexts, such as different time horizons and different future energy scenarios, both for developing, emerging, and developed countries. The only requirement is to have a sufficient database from which to make predictions for future scenarios of electrical generation–demand balances. As an example of practical implementation, the electrical system reliability for the particular case of Spain in 2040 has been forecasted. When considering the fluctuations in solar and wind power contributions, very high values of the installed power from these renewable sources are needed to reach a high reliability of the system. These values decrease substantially if contributions from nuclear and storage technologies are included.
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Based on the empirical data of 22 airlines during 2014–2019, the paper studies the impact of the introduction of Carbon neutral growth from 2020 (CNG2020) strategy on airlines' pollution abatement costs. This research considers the prices of inputs and outputs, and proposes a new Profit Pollution Abatement Costs (PPAC) index to ensure that the calculated Net Pollution Abatement Costs (NPAC) index is a cost index rather than a physical index, and a two-stage network environment production function is established to discuss the NPAC differences before and after the CNG2020 strategy was proposed. The main findings are: (a)The introduction of CNG2020 strategy has had a certain degree of impact on the airlines’ net pollution abatement costs. (b)All Nippon Airways has the largest NPAC among the 22 airlines, while Delta Air Lines and Finnair have excellent pollution abatement performance during 2014–2019. (c)Aviation carbon emissions are closely related to jet fuel consumption and route distance.
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Renewable energy technologies play an important role in the future energy systems, not only to realize a low-carbon society, but also to provide socioeconomic benefits such as creating employment opportunities and revitalizing local economies. This study considers the impact of employment in rural power plants as a socioeconomic benefit and analyzes the transition to a low-carbon energy system using a multi-regional MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. The benefit is monetized in order to incorporate it into a cost minimization objective function, and we focus on the impact of the differences in the value on the Japanese energy system and employment. Our results suggest that when considering employment effects of rural power plants, renewable power generation will increase up to 350 TWh, mainly biomass and solar photovoltaic, in 2030. Total employment associated with power generation facilities in rural areas over the model period (45 y) will increase by up to 2.28 million person-year, and biomass power generation, in particular, can have a significant role in the revitalization of local economies owing to the large job creation effect during its operation and maintenance phase.
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West African countries face a long-standing energy access issue stemming from historical low generation capacity, poor planning processes and financially-constrained power utilities. Within current frameworks, progress towards achieving universal access to electricity is slow. However, the region displays a huge endowment of renewables which clearly appear to be paramount to expanding electricity generation capacity and meeting an ever-rising demand. The clear evidence of the crescent role of utility-scale expansion of renewables-based generation has called for collective action in the region to improve electricity access and drive economic growth. Therefore, research on the design and implementation of a renewables-based future for West Africa is needed. However, the literature on electricity planning considering the use of renewables in West Africa is scarce and mostly limited to least-cost and/or low-resolution modeling. Through an exploratory approach, the present study contributes to enhancing current knowledge by capturing the essence of the existing literature on generation capacity expansion modeling approaches and critically analyzing their shortcomings to define potential improvement avenues for future research. Advancing academic knowledge in such direction would provide sound scientific evidence to key national and regional stakeholders in order to take a step closer towards building a resilient future for West African countries.
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This paper presents the ongoing research within Clim2Power project Portuguese case study. Its main goal (as a first step) is to show the relevance of using a highly detailed spatial and temporal modeling tool of the Portuguese electricity system in order to be able to adequately capture climate variability in the planning of the system up to 2050. To do so, we consider seasonal and intraday hydro, wind and solar resources variability in a large TIMES energy system model, in the eTIMES_PT model. Existing hydro, wind and thermal powerplants are modelled individually, whereas new plants are modelled at municipality level. The importance of introducing climate variability is assessed by modeling six scenarios: a reference case and both “humid” and “dry” hydropower scenarios. Each of these is also modelled with CO2 emissions cap by 2050. Results show that hydropower electricity generation variations are within range of those referred in literature by other authors. However, in this work, we are able to capture higher variations within seasons and time of day. Also, the analysis enables to account for the combined variability of hydro, PV and wind resources. This variability will subsequently consider data from seasonal forecasts and climate projections.
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West Africa holds some of the lowest electrification rates in sub-Saharan Africa with high disparities among countries and between urban and rural areas. Despite long-standing efforts to scale-up electrification levels, overall progress remains slow and highly cost ineffective. Hence, it is crucial that electricity planning processes primarily address the questions of the complementarity between utility-scale and decentralised generation. This paper applies the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to two ECOWAS countries – Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire – with the aim of determining the optimal combination of grid-connected and off-grid systems to serve rural and urban demand by 2030, using high-resolution geospatial data. This country-wide analysis highlights the fundamental role of off-grid solar photovoltaics and wind technologies in bridging the electricity access gap, particularly in Burkina Faso. Additionally, cheaper electricity costs in Côte d’Ivoire could be taken advantage of through enhanced cross-border exchanges between the two countries.
Article
Long-term energy system optimization models can be designed to model systems with a broad geographical scope that comprises multiple countries. However, due to computational limitations, often the geographical scope is restricted to a single country. This raises the problem of correctly accounting for cross-border trade of electricity in models with a limited geographical scope. Therefore, this paper assesses the impact of not correctly representing cross-border trade flows in geographically restricted long-term planning models. To this end, we use a planning model for the interconnected Central-Western European power system to compare technology choices and welfare estimates for Belgium when (i) cross-border trade of electricity is ignored and (ii) cross-border trade flows are an endogenous part of the planning model. Furthermore, this paper presents two sets of methodologies to account for transmission flows in planning models. A first methodology is to extend the model’s geographical scope and fix the capacity variables in the neighboring countries in line with pre-designed scenarios for those countries. A second methodology further reduces the computational cost by using specially tailored import and export curves to represent each country’s trade opportunities. The results indicate that for highly interconnected systems, neglecting cross-border trade or having a highly stylized representation of cross-border flows can lead to inaccurate welfare estimates and technology biases. In addition, a key insight presented in this paper is that congestion rents can constitute a major share of the welfare gains attained by trading electricity. Finally, endogenizing the dispatch decisions in neighboring countries is the most accurate method to deal with cross-border trade, while by correctly designing cross-border trade curves computational time can be reduced, but planning model outcomes become less accurate.
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Literature is replete with both top–down and bottom–up energy policy models developed for addressing various policy and planning concerns in developed countries. These models provide a good starting point for analyzing certain issues in the modern industries of developing countries, like improvement of operations, impact of technology mix, and effects of certain aspects of privatization. However, their capability for enabling a comprehensive policy analysis for developing countries is limited. This is because they lack in their representation of characteristics that are specific to developing economies. Policy priorities of equity and sustainability, existence of a large traditional sector, transition of population from traditional to modern markets, on-going major changes in the regulatory and competitive structure of energy industries, existence of multiple social and economic barriers to capital flow and technological diffusion, likelihood of huge investments in energy supply over next few decades, long-term uncertainties in domestic policy regime, and importance of decentralized energy planning are examples of characteristics that are specific to most developing economies. Such features need to be explicitly addressed in energy policy models in order to enable a meaningful policy analysis for developing countries. Additionally, results from a variety of models need to be considered by policy makers of developing countries in order to assess robustness of their decisions.
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For an economically and ecologically optimised integration of fluctuating renewable power generation (especially wind power) into electricity generation, a detailed consideration of fluctuation-induced effects on the existing power system is essential. A model-based approach is introduced in this paper, which comprehensively analyses the impact of such effects on power plant scheduling and facilitates their integration into the development of strategies for an optimised evolution of the future power system structure. The newly developed Aeolius tool for the simulation of power plant scheduling is described. In a combined analysis of long- and short-term effects it is used together with the multi-periodic cost-optimising energy system model PERSEUS-CERT. Based on the Matlab/Simulink® package, Aeolius considers the challenges for plant scheduling down to a time scale of 10 min. Special attention is paid to the provision of stand-by capacities and control power, as well as intermediate storage. Thus, a sophisticated quantification of the actual (net) benefits of wind power feed-in is achieved. Model results for Germany show that wind mainly substitutes power from intermediate-load and base-load plants (coal-, lignite-, and nuclear-fired). However, the required provision of stand-by capacities and control power does not only limit the substitution of conventional capacities, but also the achievable net savings of fuel and emissions in conventional power generation.
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In this first part of a two-part article, the principal characteristics of the TIMES model and of its global incarnation as ETSAP-TIAM are presented and discussed. TIMES was conceived as a descendent of the MARKAL and EFOM paradigms, to which several new features were added to extend its functionalities and its applicability to the exploration of energy systems and the analysis of energy and environmental policies. The article stresses the technological nature of the model and its economic foundation and properties. The article stays at the conceptual and practical level, while a companion article is devoted to the more detailed formulation of TIMES equations. Special sections are devoted to the description of four optional features of TIMES: lumpy investments, endogenous technology learning, stochastic programming, and the climate module. The article ends with a brief description of recent applications of the ETSAP-TIAM model.
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Conference Paper
This paper aims to assess the level of integration of the Central-West Europe (CWE: Germany - EEX, France - Powernext, the Netherlands - APX, Belgium - BPX and Luxembourg) regional electricity spot markets created under the initiative launched by the European Regulators Group for Electricity and Gas and essential to comply with the targets set in the Florence Regulatory Forum. As always, the integration of the European Central-West regional electricity spot markets relies on the physical interconnection between the transmission systems. Development of interconnection capacities within the region has been pursued as reported by the different Transmission System Operators, recognising that interconnection capacity is considered to be a critical factor to ensure market integration. Electricity spot market integration in the CWE region was appraised by assessing day-ahead spot electricity prices (from 1st of January 2007 to the 31st December 2012) in each spot market. Taking into consideration the adoption of the market coupling mechanism between EEX and the trilateral Pow ern ext, APX and BPX on the 9th of November 2010, a structural break in the data was evaluated through Granger-cause and impulse response analysis undertaken based on econometric models. To the best of our knowledge this approach is the first to perform a detailed analysis grounded on several econometric models to trace the effects of the introduction of the market coupling mechanism.
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To analyze the challenge of large-scale integration of renewables during the next decades, we present a conceptual power system model that bridges the gap between long term investment allocation and short-term system operation decisions. It integrates dynamic investments in generation, transmission and storage capacities as well as short-term variability and spatial distribution of supply and demand in a single intertemporal optimization framework. Large-scale grid topology, power flow distributions and storage requirements are determined endogenously. Results obtained with a three region model application indicate that adequate and timely investments in transmission and storage capacities are of great importance. Delaying these investments, which are less costly than investments in generation capacities, leads to system-wide indirect effects, such as non-optimal siting of renewable generation capacities, decreasing generation shares of renewables, increasing residual emissions and hence higher overall costs.
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This article summarises findings from a review of eighteen large-scale post-carbon transition strategies, from government and non-government sources. It is informed by analysis of policies and reports identifying one or more integrated pathways for achieving dramatic greenhouse gas emissions reductions within national or supranational jurisdictions. For each strategy we considered assumptions and priorities regarding: targets, technology; economics and financing; equity; governance; and social and political change. We describe lessons from analysis of these attempts to articulate and stimulate integrated actions for post-carbon transitions and point to areas for further exploration. A crucial difference was identified between strategies advocating an incremental and evolutionary approach to emissions reductions and those advocating more rapid and transformational change. This highlights the challenging and urgent task of understanding how to bridge the gap between physical requirements of action to prevent runaway climate change and societal support for action at that speed and scale.
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The design of transition pathways for sustainable electricity systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires the use of energy modeling tools that are able to account for two key aspects: the evolution of fossil fuels and technology prices, and the natural dynamics of renewable resources. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used focus on only one of these two aspects, which hinders their suitability for performing long-term analysis with high penetrations of renewable energy sources. This paper presents a modeling framework that is able to optimize the investment in new renewable generation capacity on the long-term while taking into account the hourly dynamics of electricity supply and demand. The framework combines two of the most used energy planning tools, each able to account for one of the aspects of the modeling of energy systems. The framework was applied to continental Portugal for the time period of 2005–2050, in order to identify optimal investment plans in new renewable and fossil generation capacity with the goal of achieving significant CO2 emissions reduction, under different scenarios. The results show that the inclusion of dynamics in the modeling methodology can help avoid overinvestment and reduce the excess of electricity from renewable energy sources that cannot be used by the system. These results can have a significant impact on the design of a sustainable electricity system and may lead to a diversification of the energy sources used.
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In this paper we present a soft-linking methodology that employs detailed simulation outputs from a dedicated power systems model to gain insights and understanding of the generation electricity plant portfolio results for the electricity sector from a separate energy systems model. We apply the methodology and present and discuss the results. The motivation for this soft-linking is to provide a transfer of information from the power systems model strong points to the energy systems model and use this information to improve and develop understanding of energy systems model results. Part of this motivation is derived from a view that one specific energy modeling tool cannot address all aspects of the full energy system in great detail and greater insights and progress can be gained by drawing on the strengths of multiple modeling tools rather than trying to incorporate them all into one comprehensive model. The methodology takes an optimized generation portfolio for a specific year from an energy systems model and undertakes a detailed high resolution chronological simulation of the same portfolio in the power systems model with added degrees of technical detail. Results presented here show that in the absence of key technical constraints, an energy systems model can potentially undervalue flexible resources, underestimate wind curtailment and overestimate the use of baseload plant.
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Increasing penetration of fluctuating energy sources for electricity generation, heating, cooling and transportation increase the need for flexibility of the energy system to accommodate the fluctuations of these energy sources. Controlling production, controlling demand and utilising storage options are the three general categories of measures that may be applied for ensuring balance between production and demand, however with fluctuating energy sources, options are limited, and flexible demand has also demonstrated limited perspective. This article takes its point of departure in an all-inclusive 100% renewable energy scenario developed for the Danish city Aalborg based on wind power, bio-resources and low-temperature geothermal heat. The article investigates the system impact of different types of energy storage systems including district heating storage, biogas storage and electricity storage. The system is modelled in the energy systems analyses model energyPRO with a view to investigating how the different storages marginally affect the amount of wind power that may be integrated applying the different storage options and the associated economic costs. Results show the largest system impact but also most costly potential are in the form of electricity storages.
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This work assesses the retrofit potential of existing Portuguese fossil fuel power plants with post-combustion CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology. The Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) was used to provide a systematic techno-economic analysis of the cost of emission control equipment, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and other key parameters which may change when CCS is implemented at a fossil fuel power plant. The results indicate that CCS requires a large capital investment and significantly increases the levelized cost of electricity. However, the economic viability of CCS increases with higher CO2 prices. The breakeven CO2 price for plants with and without CCS was estimated at 8585–140/t of CO2 depending on the technical parameters of the individual plants.
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Integrated Assessment models, widely applied in climate change mitigation research, show that renewable energy sources (RES) play an important role in the decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, the representation of relevant technologies in those models is highly stylized, thereby omitting important information about the variability of electricity demand and renewables supply. We present a power system model combining long time scales of climate change mitigation and power system investments with short-term fluctuations of RES. Investigating the influence of increasingly high temporal resolution on the optimal technology mix yields two major findings: the amount of flexible natural gas technologies for electricity generation rises while the share of wind energy only depends on climate policy constraints. Furthermore, overall power system costs increase as temporal resolution is refined in the model, while mitigation costs remain unaffected.
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Portugal is faced with important challenges concerning the definition of policies to achieve energy and environmental targets, taking also into account the economic and social issues. A multi-sectoral economy–energy–environment model has been developed to perform a prospective analysis of the changes in the economic structure and the energy system, as well as to assess the corresponding environmental impacts, providing decision support in policy making. This model is a multi-objective linear programming model that allows for the explicit consideration of distinct axes of evaluation, generally conflicting and non-commensurate, of the merit of distinct policies. The policy recommendations obtained are subject to the inherent uncertainty associated with the model coefficients and, therefore, they may not be robust in face of changes of the input data. The specification of less energy or carbon-intensive technologies is done by considering pollutant/energy coefficients defined as intervals. This analysis is crucial for understanding the role of technology in carbon mitigation efforts and other energy system planning settings, allowing to explore the effects of distinct policies on the total system costs, the fuel and technology mix, and the levels of greenhouse gases and other emissions.
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The needs that an energy supply system must meet are constantly changing, due to technological, social and political reasons. Effective energy planning is a dynamic process that is repeated periodically and adjusts to changing conditions. Energy decision makers and planners are no longer able to rely on inductive decision making since they have to investigate the effect of various decision parameters and possible future changes. To help in this process, models have been developed where estimates of future load growth, candidate power plants, fuels and other key factors can be introduced, from which the planners can evaluate decision parameters and the available alternatives. The paper presents the different methodologies and practices that are used by 11 energy models for energy demand forecasting, supply side management and generation expansion planning, demand side management and integrated resource planning. The paper concludes to the presentation of a strategic appraisal of the examined energy models appropriate for energy planning in Mozambique. Three models are proposed for conducting demand forecasting, generation expansion planning and demand side management. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand. This paper presents an extension of the TIMES energy planning tool for investment decisions in electricity production that considers seasonal, daily and hourly supply and demand dynamics. The inclusion of these dynamics enables the model to produce more accurate results in what concerns the impact of introducing energy efficiency policies and the increased use of renewable energies. The model was validated in São Miguel (Azores, Portugal) for the years 2006-2009, where a comparison with real data showed that the model can simulate the supply and demand dynamics. Further, the long-term analysis shows that the inclusion of these dynamics contributes to a better assessment of the renewable energy potential, suggests the postponement of investments in new generation capacity, and demonstrates that using fine time resolution modeling is very valuable for the design of effective policy measures under high renewable penetration energy systems.
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Portugal is a country with an energy system highly dependent on oil and gas imports. Imports of oil and gas accounted for 85% of the country's requirements in 2005 and 86% in 2006. Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the total primary energy consumption was only 14% in 2006. When focusing only on electricity production, the situation is somewhat better. The share of RES in gross electricity production varies between 20% and 35% and is dependent on the hydropower production in wet and dry years. This paper presents, on a national scale, Portugal's energy system planning and technical solutions for achieving 100% RES electricity production. Planning was based on hourly energy balance and use of H2RES software. The H2RES model provides the ability to integrate various types of storages into energy systems in order to increase penetration of the intermittent renewable energy sources or to achieve a 100% renewable island, region or country. The paper also represents a stepping-stone for studies offering wider possibilities in matching and satisfying electricity supply in Portugal with potential renewable energy sources. Special attention has been given to intermittent sources such as wind, solar and ocean waves that can be coupled to appropriate energy storage systems charged with surplus amounts of produced electricity. The storage systems also decrease installed power requirements for generating units. Consequently, these storages will assist in avoiding unnecessary rejection of renewable potential and reaching a sufficient security of energy supply.
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Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.
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The paper presents the ability of different energy systems and regulation strategies to integrate wind power. The ability is expressed by the following three factors: the degree of electricity excess production caused by fluctuations in wind and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) heat demands, the ability to utilise wind power to reduce CO2 emission in the system, and the ability to benefit from exchange of electricity on the market. Energy systems and regulation strategies are analysed in the range of a wind power input from 0 to 100% of the electricity demand. Based on the Danish energy system, in which 50% of the electricity demand is produced in CHP, a number of future energy systems with CO2 reduction potentials are analysed, i.e. systems with more CHP, systems using electricity for transportation (battery or hydrogen vehicles) and systems with fuel-cell technologies. For the present and such potential future energy systems different regulation strategies have been analysed, i.e. the inclusion of small CHP plants into the regulation task of electricity balancing and ancillary grid stability services and investments in electric heating, heat pumps and heat storage capacity. The results of the analyses make it possible to compare short-term and long-term potentials of different strategies of large-scale integration of wind power.