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Sveriges primärproduktion och försörjning av livsmedel – konsekvenser vid en brist på fossil energi R-410


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This report provides an insight into what the consequences may be for the Swedish food supply if the possibility to import sufficient quantities of fossil energy decreases. The situation described is an imaginary situation that could come up quickly and unexpectedly by eg political unrest or natural disaster. There has been no preparation time for a situation like that. The length of the crisis is set to a period of 3-5 years. During that time, assumed no technological development or other structural change had time to change conditions compared to the current situation. If the crisis becomes more permanent, however, gradually major changes have to be made. The report discusses the effects that results during the first 3-5 years of a shortage situation regarding available fossil energy. Today's food supply in Sweden and large parts of the world depends on a constant supply of fossil energy. The production of food uses, for example, large amounts of diesel, heating oil and mineral fertilizers. This applies to primary production of plants and farming animals, but there is also a high depending in food industries to ensure that the raw materials become eatable food products for consumers. Between the different producing places there are transports in many directions that demand fossil energy. The report begins with a description of the current situation regarding production volumes and energy consumption. It constitutes a reference scenario that is the basis for further calculations. The implications of the three scenario levels have been developed through discussions with experts and actors in the production chain. The report follows three different scenarios from primary production through processing to finally how consumers are affected. The three scenarios are termed low absence, medium absence and finally high absence. They represent three different scenarios in which the onset was based on current use of fossil energy. The three levels are tentatively set as a decrease of 25%, 50% and 75% compared with current levels. These percentages are set as initial discussion levels for which further calculations have been made for impact on the production process. A national economic analysis has been done on the price elasticity of fuel. It has been assessed from a possible shortage. The analysis indicates that the price of a liter of diesel at the, scenario high absence, would be as high as 160 kr per liter. The results show that much arable land currently are used to mainly produce feed for livestock pig and chicken. Their diets are mostly based on cereals. In a shortage situation, it will not be possible to grow the same amount of grain, but the volumes that are grown must be used primarily for human consumption. Primary productions will, however more use animals that can use parts of the uncultivated land used for extensive grazing. The results show that in the scenario low absence, it is possible to handle the situation quite well by increasing efficiency at all levels of processes aiming for the energy optimization instead of today when often the minimum number of hours worked are in focus. At medium and high-level absence of fossil energy, a situation arises where it is not possible to keep the population above the breadline. The results also show a redistribution of nutrient intakes, where the amount of carbohydrates will decrease relative to the current situation. The result also indicates that some parts of Sweden will have an easier or more difficult to reach supply as they are heavily dependent on transport for food. Large parts of northern Sweden and Stockholm, for example, are very dependent on incoming transport while Skåne is less dependent on inward transportation of food, despite the large population in Malmö city.
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... Of total national volume, 96% is produced south of Stockholms län. The figures are based on data from (SCB, 2019a) and are also in line with (Baky, et al., 2013). Location of crop production corresponds to location of waste availability. ...
... Figure 5 shows that sugarbeet production is concentrated to Skåne län, representing 95% of total production. Horticulture is concentrated to Götaland, although the production of carrots takes place in other parts of the country as well (Baky, et al., 2013). The data in Figure 5 is consistent with (Baky, et al., 2013), which was based on data from (Jordbruksverkets statistikdatabas, 2015) on harvest 2011. ...
... Horticulture is concentrated to Götaland, although the production of carrots takes place in other parts of the country as well (Baky, et al., 2013). The data in Figure 5 is consistent with (Baky, et al., 2013), which was based on data from (Jordbruksverkets statistikdatabas, 2015) on harvest 2011. ...
Technical Report
Waste, also food waste, abound. From an environmental point of view food waste should first and foremost be avoided. However, the waste that inevitably is produced along the food production chain should be utilized to the best of our ability. One option is to produce biobased chemicals and materials from the waste through biological processes. This study looks into what food waste resources are available for such production, industrial fermentation, in Sweden, from waste emanating in primary production all the way through to final consumption. In addition, drivers for waste generation, influencing institution and waste market characteristics are assessed.
... For example, in the summer of 2018, significant droughts, affecting the Swedish food supply, put food resilience in focus. Sweden has also been found to be increasingly dependent upon imports of food and fossil fuel inputs in the agricultural sector [5,6] and its urban areas continue to increase in size and population. It is thus apparent that to secure food supply in a changing climate, new innovations, techniques and processes are needed. ...
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With an expanding population and changing dynamics in global food markets, it is important to find solutions for more resilient food production methods closer to urban environments. Recently, vertical farming systems have emerged as a potential solution for urban farming. However, although there is an increasing body of literature reviewing the potential of urban and vertical farming systems, only a limited number of studies have reviewed the sustainability of these systems. The aim of this article was to understand the environmental impacts of vertical hydroponic farming in urban environments applied to a case study vertical hydroponic farm in Stockholm, Sweden. This was carried out by evaluating environmental performance using a life cycle perspective to assess the environmental impacts and comparing to potential scenarios for improvement options. The results suggest that important aspects for the vertical hydroponic system include the growing medium, pots, electricity demand, the transportation of raw materials and product deliveries. By replacing plastic pots with paper pots, large reductions in GHG emissions, acidification impacts, and abiotic resource depletion are possible. Replacing conventional gardening soil as the growing medium with coir also leads to large environmental impact reductions. However, in order to further reduce the impacts from the system, more resource-efficient steps will be needed to improve impacts from electricity demand, and there is potential to develop more symbiotic exchanges to employ urban wastes and by-products.
... beroende jord-och skogsbruk är mycket sårbart för extremväder och samtidigt starkt bidragande till krympande ekosystem och klimatförändringar (Rundgren, 2014). Institutet för jordbruks-och miljöteknik (numera RISE) har visat att Sverige skulle drabbas av akut matbrist vid en halverad oljeimport, ett scenario som kan bli verklighet redan inom 15 år (Baky et. at. 2013). Antagandet om ständig oljetillgång har fått oss att kraftigt minska Sveriges självförsörjningsgrad. Dessa olika faktorer pekar på att de fossilbaserade gröna näringar som har möjliggjort städernas tillväxt, kommer att behöva förändras i grunden inom en snar framtid (Lindstedt 2008). Mycket tyder på att vi fram till år 2030 behöver åter ...
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NYA VISIONER FÖR LANDSBYGDEN Relationen mellan stad och land är under ständig diskussion. I urbaniseringens tidevarv koncentreras människor, företag och service till städerna. Hur kan landsbygden utvecklas under dessa förutsättningar? Hur bygger vi kreativa och inkluderande samhällen på landsbygden? Hur kan en positiv och inkluderande framtidsvision för framtidens landsbygd? I den här boken ger elva forskare från olika discipliner och lärosäten sina perspektiv på just dessa frågor. Med utgångspunkt i tematiker som globalisering, migration, digitalisering, service, bostadsförsörjning, näringslivsutveckling, lantbruk, klimat, hållbarhet och samskapande fördjupar sig forskarna i landsbygdens förutsättningar och framtid. Authors: Josefina Syssner Marianne Abramsson Elisabet Cedersund Patrik Cras Erik Glaas Jan-Erik Hagberg Brita Hermelin Mattias Hjerpe Martin Hultman Niklas Högberg Dick Magnusson Ingrid Stiernström Cecilia Waldenström Erik Westholm
Technical Report
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De senaste åren har livsmedelsberedskap som politisk målsättning fått förnyad aktualitet i och med att ett nytt civilt försvar ska byggas upp. I mediedebatten som följt har fokus ofta legat på den låga och sjunkande självförsörjningsgraden av livsmedel. I denna rapport redovisas resultat från ett projekt om jordbrukets sårbarhet för störningar och möjliga lösningar som kan stärka motståndskraften. Resultaten visar att den grundläggande förutsättningen för att producera livsmedel är fungerande transporter samt en fungerande import. Jordbruksdriften har genom den strukturomvandling och specialisering som ägt rum sedan efterkrigstiden frikopplats från lokala resurser och lokala marknader och gjorts beroende av regelbundna transporter av inte bara råvaror eller färdiga produkter ut från gården utan också av insatsmedel in till gården som drivmedel, gödselmedel, växtskyddsmedel, utsäde och foder. Den största delen av dessa insatsmedel är importerade. Den låga självförsörjningsgraden av insatsmedel till jordbruket är alltså ett större problem än den låga självförsörjningsgraden av livsmedel. Denna problembild var känd och utgångspunkt för livsmedelsberedskapspolitiken redan under det kalla kriget. En avgörande skillnad idag är att den globala uppvärmningen ses både som ett globalt miljöproblem och ett säkerhetshot. Behovet av klimatanpassning har stimulerat en utveckling av tekniska innovationer som syftar till att ersätta fossila bränslen och andra fossilbaserade råvaror inom samtliga samhällssektorer. Inom jordbrukssektorn finns modeller för ett fossilfritt jordbruk som syftar till att sluta kretslopp och minska jordbrukets utsläpp av växthusgaser. Det bygger på användning av biodrivmedel, förnyelsebar lokalproducerad el och alternativa gödselmedel. Ett fossilfritt jordbruk med inhemsk tillverkning av insatsmedel skulle dramatiskt minska importberoendet och därmed öka motståndskraften mot störningar. De tekniska lösningarna för att ställa om till ett fossilfritt lantbruk finns redan idag men det produceras inte tillräckliga mängder av vare sig alternativa drivmedel eller gödsel för att genomföra en omställning. Den bästa livsmedelsberedskapspolitiken för ett nytt civilt försvar är därför att införa politiska styrmedel och genomföra satsningar för att snabba på en omställning till fossilfritt lantbruk.
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The purpose of this thesis is to examine what the organization of Swedish food preparedness looks like. The reason for this is that Sweden has begun the reconstruction of civil defence for the first time since the early 2000s, where food preparedness is one of the components. Furthermore, the purpose is to investigate which problems and opportunities this organization leads to - which is done from a capacity theory perspective. Historically, food from the forest has been an important contribution to the diet in times of famine or crisis. With the currently low level of self-sufficiency in Sweden it is also relevant to see how the agents view this native and alternative resource. This has led to the following research questions: How is the Swedish food prepar- edness organized today, and how can you understand this organization con- cerning food preparedness based on capacity theory? What problems and opportunities arise in this organization? How do the agents think about the forest as a potential food resource, and how can this be understood based on capacity theory? The collecting of materials has been based on a literature study to describe the background and context of Swedish food security. In order to gather empirical facts I have interviewed fourteen informants from eleven agents: two agents on each local and regional level, and seven on national level. Out of these agents, ten have been public actors and one from the non-profit sec- tor. My analysis method and my approach to my material have been based on Carol Bacchi’s What's the problem represented to be? where I have had a critical approach to capacity theory and my empirical material, in order to investigate how food preparedness is organized, and which possibilities and obstacles that exists in this organization. The study has shown that the organization of Swedish food preparedness is based on the Crisis Preparedness Ordinance (SFS 2015: 1052), geograph- ical area responsibility and that the duties of the authorities should corre- spond during a crisis as well as at high preparedness as well as in peacetime. In reality there is an ambiguity about which agent is responsible for what. The study has also shown that an important part of the organization and planning of preparedness is collaboration between both authorities and pri- vate agents. The obstacles and opportunities identified have uppermost been political processes, resources and assets, and the ability to engage others. The stakeholders' work with forest food resources has been limited, which can be explained by current norms, values and a lack of knowledge about these resources.
Price and income elasticities of transport fuel demand have numerous applications. They help forecast increases in fuel consumption as countries get richer, they help develop appropriate tax policies to curtail consumption, help determine how the transport fuel mix might evolve, and show the price response to a fuel disruption. Given their usefulness, it is understandable why hundreds of studies have focused on measuring such elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel consumption. In this paper, I focus my attention on price and income elasticities in the existing studies to see what can be learned from them. I summarize the elasticities from these historical studies. I use statistical analysis to investigate whether income and price elasticities seem to be constant across countries with different incomes and prices. Although income and price elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel are not found to be the same at high and low incomes and at high and low prices, patterns emerge that allow me to develop suggested price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demand for over one hundred countries. I adjust these elasticities for recent fuel mix policies, and suggest an agenda of future research topics.
This paper is survey of studies on gasoline demand. Although there are very many different studies in this field which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results, we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the conflict turns to consensus. In this survey we classify studies by data type and by ten different categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data, which tend to be unstable, and of certain inappropriate model formulations, we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short-run and even long-run income and price elasticities.
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