Sveriges primärproduktion och försörjning av livsmedel – konsekvenser vid en brist på fossil energi R-410

Abstract

This report provides an insight into what the consequences may be for the Swedish food supply if the possibility to import sufficient quantities of fossil energy decreases. The situation described is an imaginary situation that could come up quickly and unexpectedly by eg political unrest or natural disaster. There has been no preparation time for a situation like that. The length of the crisis is set to a period of 3-5 years. During that time, assumed no technological development or other structural change had time to change conditions compared to the current situation. If the crisis becomes more permanent, however, gradually major changes have to be made. The report discusses the effects that results during the first 3-5 years of a shortage situation regarding available fossil energy.
Today's food supply in Sweden and large parts of the world depends on a constant supply of fossil energy. The production of food uses, for example, large amounts of diesel, heating oil and mineral fertilizers. This applies to primary production of plants and farming animals, but there is also a high depending in food industries to ensure that the raw materials become eatable food products for consumers. Between the different producing places there are transports in many directions that demand fossil energy.
The report begins with a description of the current situation regarding production volumes and energy consumption. It constitutes a reference scenario that is the basis for further calculations. The implications of the three scenario levels have been developed through discussions with experts and actors in the production chain.
The report follows three different scenarios from primary production through processing to finally how consumers are affected. The three scenarios are termed low absence, medium absence and finally high absence. They represent three different scenarios in which the onset was based on current use of fossil energy. The three levels are tentatively set as a decrease of 25%, 50% and 75% compared with current levels. These percentages are set as initial discussion levels for which further calculations have been made for impact on the production process.
A national economic analysis has been done on the price elasticity of fuel. It has been assessed from a possible shortage. The analysis indicates that the price of a liter of diesel at the, scenario high absence, would be as high as 160 kr per liter.
The results show that much arable land currently are used to mainly produce feed for livestock pig and chicken. Their diets are mostly based on cereals. In a shortage situation, it will not be possible to grow the same amount of grain, but the volumes that are grown must be used primarily for human consumption. Primary productions will, however more use animals that can use parts of the uncultivated land used for extensive grazing.
The results show that in the scenario low absence, it is possible to handle the situation quite well by increasing efficiency at all levels of processes aiming for the energy optimization instead of today when often the minimum number of hours worked are in focus. At medium and high-level absence of fossil energy, a situation arises where it is not possible to keep the population above the breadline. The results also show a redistribution of nutrient intakes, where the amount of carbohydrates will decrease relative to the current situation.
The result also indicates that some parts of Sweden will have an easier or more difficult to reach supply as they are heavily dependent on transport for food. Large parts of northern Sweden and Stockholm, for example, are very dependent on incoming transport while Skåne is less dependent on inward transportation of food, despite the large population in Malmö city.