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Potential of CO2 (carbon dioxide) taxes as a policy measure towards low-carbon Portuguese electricity sector by 2050

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  • Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research (CENSE)
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... To help policymakers, long-term models of Portugal have been used, for instance, to assess the impact of climate change on hydroelectric power generation [37], the impact of the carbon tax on investments in new generation technologies [38], and to evaluate decarbonization pathways for the energy system [39]. Portugal's electric system already has a high share of both renewable capacity (see Table 1) and generation e 58% and 48% respectively [31] e which confers to Portugal a position above the average within EU countries. ...
... Looking at studies [37] and [38], a comparison is made with the presented study. These studies have looked to the evolution of the Portuguese electric system to achieve the European low carbon generation goals but have not explicitly considered the DR as one of the available technologies. ...
... In Ref. [38], the impact of the rise of the carbon price in the shape of the electric system is studied. Differences arise from the assumptions on constraints of new coal capacity (present until 2050) and in the introduction of new technologies of carbon capture and storage. ...
Article
With the urge to decrease carbon emissions, electricity systems need to evolve to promote the integration of renewable resources and end-use energy efficiency. Demand Response (DR) can be used as a strategy, one among many, to improve the balance between demand and supply of electricity, especially in systems that rely heavily on variable energy renewable resources. Thus, it is important to understand up to what extent a countrywide system would cope with DR implementation. In this work, the impact of demand response in the long-term is assessed, using a model of the Portuguese electricity system in the modeling tool OSeMOSYS. The theoretical potential of DR is computed to understand better the impact on the overall system planning, by analyzing three scenarios – a business as usual scenario, a carbon-free system scenario in 2050, and a scenario without heavy carbon emission restrictions. DR impact in all three scenarios results in a decrease in the overall costs, on the capacity installed and in an increase in the percentage of renewable capacity. Further, an economic analysis showed that DR would take 15 years, on average, to influence the average electricity cost and that the reduction in total costs is mainly due to the avoided capacity investments.
... However, as shown in Refs. [10,11] the introduction of carbon price may encourage the technology switching even more, mostly towards RES. Besides the energy sector, the transport sector has shown to be also challenging for decarbonization [12e14], considering its persistent reliance on fossil fuels. ...
... [18e20]), including analysis of low-carbon policies such as increased utilization of RES [4], impact of CCS deployment [8], introduction of CO 2 taxes [11] and different decarbonisation pathways from the energy system perspective [21,22] and/or at sectoral level [23,24]. Also, it has been used as a tool for evaluation or the effects from the climate changes impact on energy demand [25], as well as the impact of environmental awareness campaigns on end-use energy consumption behaviour [26]. ...
Article
The goal of this paper is to showcase a modelling exercise, conducted for the Republic of Macedonia, a non-Annex I country under UNFCCC and a candidate for EU membership, by making use of MARKAL energy system model. Baseline Scenario and three groups of mitigation scenarios have been developed until 2050, reflecting different types of targets with different levels of ambition regarding CO2 emissions reduction: (1) EU scenarios – end-year targets compared to 1990 level; (2) QELRC (Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Commitment) scenarios – a range of targets over the period 2021–28 and for each subsequent 8-year period, and (3) Baseline deviation scenarios – deviation compared to baseline emission level. The comparative assessment of mitigation scenarios, based on the cumulative emissions, cumulative total system costs and incremental specific reduction cost, has generated a basis for setting the national mitigation contributions and formulating the most appropriate national mitigation action plan.
... Furthermore, revenues from a carbon tax could be used not only to finance cuts in ordinary income taxes, thereby helping to avert inefficiencies brought about by disincentives to work, but also to subsidize R&D activities for carbon-free technologies and accelerate their substitution to carbon-based energy [1]. Finally, as compared to fuel-efficiency standards, direct caps, or other carbonmanagement measures, a carbon tax is more flexible and dynamic in response to new information, and it is a potentially costeffective option for reducing CO 2 emissions [2,3]. 1 Currently, carbon tax policies or equivalent measures have been implemented in several countries, notably European countries, despite EU Emission Trading Scheme which covers most of the EU countries, such as France, Denmark, Norway, and Switzerland have launched carbon tax policies in their domestic market, so as to enhance their measures in control CO 2 emissions [4]. In addition, in recent years, attempts have been made in some Asian countries to introduce carbon taxes for fossil energy use. ...
... The revised logistic model is a suitable option to make up this gap; furthermore, it allows us to introduce policy variables, such as carbon taxes and subsidies, to the energy module, which brings convenience for us to study the impacts of climate policies on economy as well as technological diffusion. 2 ...
... Davis and Kilian (2009) also found that the 10% increase in gasoline tax per gallon will reduce carbon emission in the USA by about 1%. Leinert et al. (2013) and Gerbelová et al. (2014) further found that Ireland's EPT reduced CO 2 emissions in Ireland and Portugal. Niu et al. (2018) found that EPT reduces carbon emissions based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including households, energy, government, final products, and environment. ...
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This paper mainly studies the impact of environmental protection tax (EPT) on the illegal emission behaviors of heavy polluting enterprises. Based on the real-time data from the nearest air monitoring points, this paper calculates the day-night difference of PM2.5 to measure whether there are illegal emission behaviors. And, difference in difference method (DID) is used based on the quasi-natural experiment of EPT. First, the baseline DID results show that EPT reduces day-night difference of PM2.5, and inhibits illegal emissions. Second, the influence paths results show that EPT can inhibit illegal emission by increasing innovation, environmental responsibility performance, and environmental penalty cost, and EPT aggravate illegal emissions by increasing environmental costs and environmental corruption. Third, the influence of different pollutant pricing on illegal emissions is further analyzed. The effect of air pollutant pricing on illegal emissions is inhibited first and then promoted, while higher water pollutant pricing will aggravate illegal emissions. This paper provides enlightenment on adjusting EPT policy for local governments to curb illegal emissions, and provides an economic explanation for the differences of illegal pollution discharge in different places.
... Chiodi et al. [29] analyzed the Irish energy systems under different CO 2 emission reduction targets for 2050 using the TIMES model. Gerbelov a et al. [30] also analyzed the transition to a low-carbon electricity sector in Portugal under different CO 2 taxes. Another study considered the external costs of electricity generation by incorporating the costs into the MARKAL model [31]. ...
Article
Renewable energy technologies play an important role in the future energy systems, not only to realize a low-carbon society, but also to provide socioeconomic benefits such as creating employment opportunities and revitalizing local economies. This study considers the impact of employment in rural power plants as a socioeconomic benefit and analyzes the transition to a low-carbon energy system using a multi-regional MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. The benefit is monetized in order to incorporate it into a cost minimization objective function, and we focus on the impact of the differences in the value on the Japanese energy system and employment. Our results suggest that when considering employment effects of rural power plants, renewable power generation will increase up to 350 TWh, mainly biomass and solar photovoltaic, in 2030. Total employment associated with power generation facilities in rural areas over the model period (45 y) will increase by up to 2.28 million person-year, and biomass power generation, in particular, can have a significant role in the revitalization of local economies owing to the large job creation effect during its operation and maintenance phase.
... Therefore, in order to reduce a higher level of carbon emissions in the Malaysian economy, double amounts of the carbon and energy taxes are required under both schemes for recycling tax revenue. Gerbelov a et al. [19] showed that higher rates of carbon tax lead to greater decreases in CO 2 emission in the economy. ...
Article
This study examines the impact of carbon tax and its alternative, energy tax, on both the Malaysian economy and the transport sector, using a CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) framework. In order to achieve government revenue neutrality, two schemes for revenue recycling, namely lump-sum transfer and labour tax recycling, are employed. The simulation's results show that the carbon tax policy is more effective than the energy tax policy in reducing carbon emissions; because it is less expensive. The negative impact of the carbon tax, on real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and investment, is less than the energy tax in both recycling schemes. Through lump-sum transfer, both taxes lead to an increase in the consumption and welfare of households, because the tax interaction effect is less than the tax recycling effect; however, through labour tax recycling, they decrease the consumption and welfare of all household groups. These tax policies are not beneficial for the transportation sector, because they lead to decreases in domestic output, domestic demand, exports and imports of all transport sectors. The climate change policies would lead to mitigation of rebound effect in whole of the economy and the transport sector. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Dear readers, If you like to have the full paper, please send an email request to pejtdr_fkej@um.edu.my. We will email the paper to you. Thank You.
... Capros et al. [51], Blesl et al. [52], EC [53], Bussar et al. [54], Spiecker & Weber [55], Dowling [56]) or 'western' countries (e.g. Amorim et al. [57], Gerberov a et al. [58] and Rosenberg et al. [59]), but there are only a few applications of energy modelling in the CEE region (e.g. S afi an [60]), and in the Czech Republic in particular. To date, only a linear optimization model EFOM/ENV (Energy Flow Optimisation Model) has been used to evaluate some policy documents prepared by the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade or Ministry of the Environment of (e.g. ...
Article
A dynamic partial equilibrium model, TIMES ( The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System), is built to optimize the energy system in a post-transition European country, the Czech Republic. The impacts of overall nine scenarios on installed capacity, capital and fuel costs, air quality pollutant emission, emission of CO2 and environmental and health damage are quantified for a period up to 2050. These scenarios are built around three different price sets of the EUA (EU allowance) to emit greenhouse gasses alongside a policy that retains the ban on brown coal mining in two Czech mines, a policy that will allow the re-opening of mining areas under this ban (i.e. within the territorial ecological limits), and a low natural gas price assumption. We found that the use of up until now dominant brown coal will be significantly reduced in each scenario, although reopening the coal mines will result in its smaller decline. With low EUA price, hard coal will become the dominant fuel in electricity generation, while nuclear will overtake this position with a 51% or even 65% share assuming the central price of EUA, or high EUA price, respectively. The low price of natural gas will result in an increasing gas share from an almost zero share recently up to about 42%. This stimulus does not however appear at all with low EUA price. Neither of these scenarios will achieve the renewable energy sources 2030 targets and only a high EUA price will lead to almost full de-carbonization of the Czech power system, with fossil fuels representing only 16% of the energy mix. The low EUA price will result in an increase in CO2 emissions, whereas the high EUA price will reduce CO2 emission by at least 81% compared to the 2015 reference level. Those scenarios that will result in CO2 emission reduction will also generate ancillary benefits due to reduction in air quality emissions, on average over the entire period, at least at 38€ per t of avoided CO2, whereas scenarios that will lead to CO2 increase will generate ancillary costs at least of 31€ per t CO2.
... Existing literatures on carbon tax studies mainly use dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model [20,25], dynamic economy wide model [23], modified Cross-Entropy solution method [27], TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model [52], simplified system dynamics model [53] and so on. The research contents are multifarious, while there is little literature on carbon tax pilot. ...
Article
This paper attempts to explore carbon tax pilot in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomerations based on a novel energy-saving and emission-reduction (ESER) system with carbon tax constraints, which has not yet been discussed in present literature. A novel carbon tax attractor is achieved through the discussion of the dynamic behavior of the new system. Based on the genetic algorithm-back propagation neural network, the quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified. The scenario analysis results show that, under the same tax rate and constraint conditions, the ESER system in YRD urban agglomerations is superior to the average case in China, in which the impacts on economic growth are almost the same. The former’s energy intensity is lower and the shock resistance is stronger. It is found that economic property of YRD urban agglomerations is the main cause for the ESER system of YRD urban agglomerations being superior. In the current YRD urban agglomerations’ ESER system, energy intensity cannot be adjusted to an ideal level by commercialization management and government control; however, it is under effective control of carbon tax incentives. Therefore, strengthening the economic property of YRD urban agglomerations and effective utilization of carbon tax incentives could perfectly control energy intensity, without obvious potential negative impact on economic growth.
... A two-stage stochastic version of the energy-economy model MARKAL simulates the market. Gerbelova et al. (2014) examine the cost effectiveness of different evolutions of CO 2 taxes under the emissions trading system in Europe by 2050 in order to analyse the possible roles and limits of different mitigation technologies within the Portuguese electricity supply system by applying the TIMES modelling tool. Endo and Ichinohe (2006) make clear the conditions which can achieve the target for PV capacity attaining goal of PV system sales price assuming carbon tax and buyback in Japan. ...
Article
Global climate change, energy consumption pattern and economic growth are major issues nowadays for the developing world like India. Due to global threat of climate change, Indian economy experience big challenges to maintain its high growth rate if switched to the clean energy generation for environmental sustainability. In this situation, there is urgent need to formulate solid policy and account for the cost of CO2 mitigation, i.e., effect on GDP. This paper addresses these situations by using MARKAL-MACRO energy model to develop different scenarios up to the year 2045. The result show that the carbon intensity per GDP decreases 2.5% annually during the period 2005 to 2045. The marginal abatement costs vary between 14–245 US$/tC and GDP decreases from 0.12% to 2.4% for the reduction rate between 5% to 50% compared to reference case. Since the economic growth remains the priority, it would be more realistic for India to make continuous efforts to reduce carbon emissions by implementing sustainable energy technologies gradually and playing the active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanism.
... Ireland's energy target for 2020 to reduce GHG emissions by 20 % below 2005 levels has also been analyzed (Chiodi et al. 2013). The integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) modelling tool has been applied to examine the cost effectiveness of different evolutions of CO 2 taxes under the Emissions Trading System in Europe by 2050 (Gerbelová et al. 2014). ...
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Energy is the main driver of modern national economies. However, energy systems are highly complex and obtaining energy-efficient and clean solutions at the lowest cost is becoming harder under these dynamic circumstances. An integrated decision-making tool is needed in these circumstances as a compass for decision makers. This study aimed to create such a model for Turkey, spanning the period 2005–2025. Firstly, energy supply commodities, sectors and sectoral demands, conversion and process technologies, consumption and demand technologies are determined for Turkey based on energy balance statistics published by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. This database is called the Reference Energy System, and included parameters characterizing each of the technologies and resources used to obtain the energy equilibrium, including fixed and variable costs, technology availability, performance and pollutant emissions. The model also allows user-defined variables. After developing alternative scenarios to achieve cost-effective technology selection and running each alternative of the base scenario one by one, model responses and scenario results are analyzed to provide technical recommendations. Therefore, a functional ‘energy–economy–ecology–engineering’ integrated model calculating final energy consumption from primary energy supply was developed with optimal solutions including both current energy technologies and candidates for near future utilization.
... A two-stage stochastic version of the energy-economy model MARKAL simulates the market. Gerbelova et al. (2014) examine the cost effectiveness of different evolutions of CO 2 taxes under the emissions trading system in Europe by 2050 in order to analyse the possible roles and limits of different mitigation technologies within the Portuguese electricity supply system by applying the TIMES modelling tool. Endo and Ichinohe (2006) make clear the conditions which can achieve the target for PV capacity attaining goal of PV system sales price assuming carbon tax and buyback in Japan. ...
Article
Global climate change, energy consumption patterns and economic growth are major issues nowadays for the developing world like India. Owing to global threat of climate change, the Indian economy experiences big challenges to maintain its high growth rate if switched to the clean energy generation for environmental sustainability. In this situation, there is urgent need to formulate solid policy and account for the cost of CO2 mitigation, i.e., effect on GDP. This paper addresses these situations by using MARKALMACRO energy model to develop different scenarios up to the year 2045. The result show that the carbon intensity per GDP decreases 2.5% annually during the period 2005 to 2045. The marginal abatement costs vary between 14-245 US$/tC and GDP decreases from 0.12% to 2.4% for the reduction rate between 5% to 50% compared to reference case. Since economic growth remains the priority, it would be more realistic for India to make continuous efforts to reduce carbon emissions by implementing sustainable energy technologies gradually and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanism.
... The successful implementation of carbon tax has attracted the attention of many scholars and economists worldwide. The first wave of research on carbon tax dates to the early 1990s, and most of the focus was on developed countries, such as those in the EU (Conefrey et al., 2013;Murray & Rivers, 2015;Rivers, 2010;Zhao, 2011;Choi et al., 2010;Allan et al., 2014;Beck, Rivers, & Yonezawa, 2016;Benavente, 2016;Bordigoni, Hita, & Blanc, 2012;Cosmo & Hyland, 2013;Gerbelová et al., 2014;Gupta, 2016;Mathur & Morris, 2014;Meng, Siriwardana, & Mcneill, 2015;Wissema & Dellink, 2007). With the implementation of carbon tax in China, studies of carbon tax in China have emerged in recent years. ...
Article
As one of the most cost-effective means of carbon emission reduction, carbon tax has attracted considerable attention from economists and international organizations. This study applied a two-region dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to discover how differentiated carbon taxes among regions would affect the competitiveness of local industries, taking an inland city-Chongqing in China-as an example. The results show that when carbon tax is implemented, it can effectively decrease carbon emissions and intensity, and achieve China's Nationally Determined Contribution target by 2030. It will, however, also have varied effects on the macroeconomy, with GDP losses of 1.54% to 2.5%. Meanwhile, industrial competitiveness in Chongqing will be affected heterogeneously. When Chongqing's tax level is higher than the rest of China, agriculture, textile, food, transport equipment, machinery, and electronics sectors will benefit from increased output activity. Meanwhile , paper, chemicals, nonmetal production, and metal smelting will suffer output losses. Such varied sectoral effects can be explained by two effects-price effect and scale effect-in three markets: domestic, interprovincial, and foreign. Finally, based on China's practical situation, this paper makes policy suggestions that could mitigate the negative effects of carbon tax.
... There are several works discussing the effectiveness of carbon taxes. In [66], the authors examine the cost-effectiveness of different carbon taxes in Europe, concluding that, although carbon taxes can effectively reduce the level of CO 2 emissions, their efficacy is limited due to the limited potential of cost-effective RES. Moreover, depending on the market structure of the country, different carbon taxes policies may lead to similar GHG reductions but at different resulting energy costs [35]. ...
Article
Energy systems are quickly evolving through the development of new technologies and the emergence of new operational and market design paradigms. In particular, the global push for sustainability is driving the transition towards a pronounced redesign. In fact, renewable energy integration is occurring at a massive scale, and several other exciting developments are finding their place in modern energy systems, such as distributed energy resources, demand response, energy storage technologies, and local energy markets. In this dynamic context, the process of energy policy design and implementation has found new challenges, and in supporting this key process, expansion planning models and tools can play an essential role. For example, these models can be employed to estimate the impact of a multitude of policy instruments. Thus, there is a wide interest in these tools and a variety of such models, as evidenced by a rich literature and a fast-paced evolution of this research area. Motivated by this, this work presents a comprehensive and up-to-date review on expansion planning models and tools with emphasis on their application to energy policy analysis. In particular, this paper reviews the most significant policy instruments, with an emphasis in renewable energy integration, the optimization models that have been developed for expansion planning, and existing decision-support tools for energy policy analysis. Finally, this paper also discusses the trends in the literature and the most pressing current challenges in the development and use of expansion planning models for energy policy analysis.
... However, situation varies in different countries. Based on the analysis of the carbon tax policy by Portuguese government, some researchers find that there is no reduction in emitted carbon dioxide emission when compared to the level of 1990 [28]. Researchers argue the policy by Portuguese government deviated from their intentions as well, illustrating that authorities need to quickly amend the existing legislations to avoid misguided attempts turning into a missed opportunity [29]. ...
Article
As traditional energy is depleting, it is urgent to search for substitutes of traditional energy. Therefore, policies promoting the development of renewable energy are introduced. Under the condition of non-capital constraints, the green-credit policy and the production subsidy about renewable energy enterprises are compared. The results show that changes of market interest rate provide different implications for regulators to choose between the two policies. Under the condition of capital constraints, it is found that the green-credit policy has positive effect on renewable energy enterprises, and the effect enlarges when the difference between green rates and market interest rate becomes wider. With the increase of carbon tax and the negative externality of traditional energies, the capital flows into renewable energy enterprises. This article provides support for the development of renewable energy and its policies based on the comparison of the two policies. According to the results of this study, it is believed that the implementation of both types of policies will have a more positive effect.
... A carbon tax generation self-scheduling model was presented and the effects of generation profits and emissions profiles under different carbon-tax scenarios are analyzed in [18]. Different evolutions of carbon dioxide taxes that might be applied to the national electricity sector in Portugal were studied in [19]. A choice experiment study of Chinese companies was summarized in [20] to measure the choice preferences of Chinese companies to carbon-tax policy. ...
Article
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We propose an emission-intensity-based carbon-tax policy for the electric-power industry and investigate the impact of the policy on thermal generation self-scheduling in a deregulated electricity market. The carbon-tax policy is designed to take a variable tax rate that increases stepwise with the increase of generation emission intensity. By introducing a step function to express the variable tax rate, we formulate the generation self-scheduling problem under the proposed carbon-tax policy as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model. The objective function is to maximize total generation profits, which are determined by generation revenue and the levied carbon tax over the scheduling horizon. To solve the problem, a decomposition algorithm is developed where the variable tax rate is transformed into a pure integer linear formulation and the resulting problem is decomposed into multiple generation self-scheduling problems with a constant tax rate and emission-intensity constraints. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed decomposition algorithm can solve the considered problem in a reasonable time and indicate that the proposed carbon-tax policy can enhance the incentive for generation companies to invest in low-carbon generation capacity.
... Most work on energy taxes has been done in the context of the economic effects of carbon taxes, studying how effective they are in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (see, e.g., Bergin et al., 2004;Wissema & Dellink, 2007). As our experiment was carried out within the framework of the electricity market, we narrowed the relevant literature down to studies about taxes in electricity markets (see, e.g., Berkhout et al., 2004;Chen & Tseng, 2011;Gerbelová et al., 2014;Olsen et al., 2018). In particular, Berkhout et al. (2004) concluded that household demand for electricity reacts especially strongly to changes in energy prices. ...
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Many countries have liberalized their residential electricity markets or are considering to do so. Liberalization provides consumers with more freedom of choice but also leads to higher choice complexity as consumers face a much larger number of different electricity contracts to choose from. We hypothesize that consumers react to this increased choice complexity in liberalized markets by applying simplified decision strategies that allow them to reduce cognitive effort. In particular, we predict that with increasing size of choice sets, consumers focus more on simple price attributes of electricity contracts and less on the relatively complex environmental attributes, leading to a decrease in the demand for green electricity. In two online experiments conducted in a representative (n = 610) and a student sample (n = 1, 212) in Switzerland, we find that indeed when faced with a larger choice set participants focus more on prices and choose cheaper electricity contracts containing less renewable and more conventional energy than when faced with a smaller choice set. In addition, we also find evidence that a tax on conventional energy is a more effective policy instrument for shifting demand towards renewables than be-havioral instruments in the form of social norm interventions. Our results suggest that a liberalization of the household electricity market has to be carefully managed such that consumers are not overwhelmed and do not shift their demand to cheaper but less environmentally-friendly energy sources.
... In the case of China, for example, it is clear that the reduction in CO2 emissions in the electricity sector depends on government policies [12]. In the case of Portugal, the increased taxation of CO2 prices occasioned a slight impact on reducing CO2 emissions; however, other policy measures need to be developed to complement the use of CO2 taxes [13]. In California, the policy has had an essential role in leading to significant "reshuffling" of emissions and limit the impact of the electricity sector emissions cap [14]. ...
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In 2014, Chile introduced a tax reform on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that began to be collected in 2017; the reform is restricted to large industrial and power generation sources with thermal power greater than 50 megawatts (MW). Therefore, this study evaluates each industrial source’s option to reduce its taxes by switching to cleaner fuels (investing in new combustion equipment, such as boilers and dual burners). The results show that a tax of US$5 per ton of CO2 for industrial sources of more than 50 MW of thermal power is wholly ineffective in reducing emissions. If a carbon tax is applied to all independent sources of power, only a few industrial sources are predicted to change their current fuel, mainly changing coal to biomass. The conclusion is that the carbon tax serves to raise tax revenues rather than reduce emissions.
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This paper attempts to explore the dynamic behavior of energy-saving and emission-reduction (ESER) system in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomerations, which has not yet been reported in present literature. The novel YRD urban agglomerations carbon tax attractor is achieved. A scenario study is carried out. The results show that, the ESER system in YRD urban agglomerations is superior to the average case in China, in which the impacts on economic growth are almost the same. The economic property of YRD urban agglomerations is the main cause why the ESER system of YRD urban agglomerations being superior.
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China’s automobile industry is developing rapidly, but the recycling rate of end-of-life vehicles has been low. In 2018, the recovery rate of end-of-life passenger vehicles was less than 18% of the scrapped amount. Dynamic material flow analysis can predict the amount of end-of-life passenger cars in China in the future, and analyze the flow of materials in recycling system. Life cycle assessment can be used to quantify greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this paper integrates these two methods into the model construction of recycling decision system. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis of the important factors affecting the efficiency of the recovery system is carried out. Finally, the main recovery indexes of the system are predicted under three scenarios: low-speed, medium speed and high-speed development, which are set based on scrap volume, standard recovery rate, proportion of assembly into remanufacturing and carbon tax price. The research results show that in 2018, 656.9 kg/vehicle of iron, 150.2 kg/vehicle of aluminum and 7.9 kg/vehicle of copper are recovered from end-of-life passenger car in China, and the carbon emission during the recovery process is 651.1 kg of CO2eq/vehicle, with a total emission reduction of 3816.1 kgCO2eq/vehicle compared with the original production, and the economic benefit is about 5055.5 yuan/vehicle. The scenario prediction results show that by 2050, from the low-speed development scenario to the high-speed development scenario, the total amount of iron, aluminum and copper recovered rise from 3.96 million tons, 915 thousand tons and 46 thousand tons to 697 thousand tons, 1.61 million tons and 80 thousand tons respectively throughout the year. The carbon emission in the recovery process rise from 4.98 thousand tons to 9.32 million tons. Compared with the original production, the carbon emission reduction increases from 2.21 million tons to 38.3 million tons, the economic benefit increases from 58.9 billion yuan to 118.8 billion yuan, and the comprehensive benefit increases from 57 billion yuan to 111.6 billion yuan.
This paper analyses the impact of feed-in tariffs, fossil fuel support, technology transfer, and other relevant socio-economic variables on Portuguese greenhouse gas emissions. The results provide evidence that environmental policy has a negative impact on greenhouse gas emissions, which uncovers an efficient environmental outcome from regulation. Additionally, the model reveals that technology transfer may cause an increase in greenhouse gas emissions evolution, which is an undesirable effect arising from technological diffusion. By focusing on a specific economy and considering both “pro-climate” and “anti-climate” policy variables, this paper provides policy suggestions to aid Portuguese energy planners and policymakers reaching a sustainable transition. Nonetheless, the results have wider, international, implications for the design and implementation of environmental policies. In what follows we present literature regarding several GHG emissions determinants. The first subsection provides a review of environmental policy literature regarding market-based and flexible mechanisms, as well as the role of governments. The second subsection examines other GHG emissions determinants outside the policy scope, such as energy prices, energy consumption, or technology transfer. Lastly, section 2.3. provides a synopsis of the Portuguese energy and policy context.
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The Carbon Tax Self-Scheduling (CTSS) model for a power generating company (GENCO) is proposed in light of the deregulated electricity market environment. The model analyses the effects of GENCO profits and emissions profiles under different carbon tax scenarios, by valuing the specific part of the cost which affects the environment. The resolution method provides first a Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming (MIQP) formulation of the CTSS problem. Second, using piece-wise linearisation approximation methods, the MIQP formulation is transformed into a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) system. Simulation results of 10–100 unit systems over 24 h show that the MILP formulation is efficient and precise when calculating problems of such a large scale. We conclude that the increase of carbon tax reduces carbon emissions and the reduction effect is more favorable in the case of relatively modest carbon tax. The profit of GENCO is unnecessarily negatively related to the carbon tax, while it is determined by the increased rate of electricity price. The increase of carbon tax may inhibit demand. However, the inhibiting effect may be weakened when considering increases in electricity prices combined with the carbon tax.
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This paper investigates the energy system of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) to highlight, through a scenario analysis, its possible future development in compliance with the European Commission's long-term vision. The IEA-ETSAP methodology was utilized to model and analyse the Basilicata energy system in a business-as-usual scenario, based on the assumptions of the 2010 Regional Energy and Environmental Policy Plan, and in two low-carbon scenarios, decarbonisation and high energy efficiency, which, in line with the long-term European strategy, foresee an 85% carbon dioxide emission reduction and a 20% energy efficiency increase in 2050. The results highlight that electricity production from renewable energy sources (in particular wind energy), strongly supported by the regional policy, goes beyond the Basilicata Regional Energy-Environmental Plan forecast, with a further increase in the decarbonisation scenarios. In addition, solar thermal and highly efficient technologies are adopted in commercial and residential end-use sectors. An additional 9% reduction in energy consumption is achieved in the high energy efficiency scenario by passive houses. The proposed approach shows the usefulness of a modelling framework typically used for national and supranational analyses to support regional authorities in their decision-making process to obtain results in line with the European and national strategies. Application to the Basilicata region shows the usefulness of a consolidated framework for policy assessment at a local scale to assess regional contribution to the achievement of national climate mitigation targets that tend towards climate neutrality.
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Renewable energy sources are believed to reduce drastically greenhouse gas emissions that would otherwise be generated from fossil fuels used to generate electricity. This implies that a unit of renewable energy will replace a unit of fossil-fuel, with its CO2 emissions, on an equivalent basis -with no other effects on the grid. But, the fuel economy and emissions in the existing power systems are not proportional with the electricity production of intermittent sources due to cycling of the fossil fuel plants that make up the balance of the grid (i.e. changing the power output makes thermal units to operate less efficiently). This study focuses in the interactions between wind generation and thermal plants cycling, by establishing the levels of extra fuel use caused by decreased efficiencies of fossil back-up for wind electricity in Spain. We analyze the production of all thermal plants in 2011, studying scenarios where wind penetration causes major deviations in programming and we define a procedure for quantifying CO2 reductions using emission factors and efficiency curves from existing installations; the objective is to discuss the real contribution of renewable energy to the environmental targets: the results show that CO2 reductions are still relevant at high wind penetration, whilst we also suggest alternatives to improve reliability of the power system.
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This paper analyses the current energy balance of Portugal, considering the actual sources which are mainly traditional fossil fuels, hydroelectric power and renewables. Other potential sources are also discussed and taken into consideration in view of the previewed evolution of the country in energetic terms. Among these, nuclear power, once regarded as an option, is now being re‐considered. This paper also sums up the main issues to be considered in a future debate on the subject.
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The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by about 30–50% in 2030 at costs below 100 US$/tCO2 based on an assessment of both bottom-up and top-down studies. Here, we have looked in more detail into the outcomes of specific models and also analyzed the economic potentials at the sectoral and regional level. At the aggregated level, the findings of the IPCC report are confirmed. However, substantial differences are found at the sectoral level. At the same time, there seems to be no systematic difference in the reduction potential reported by top-down and bottom-up approaches. The largest reduction potential as a response to carbon prices exists in the energy supply sector. Reduction potential in the building sector may carry relatively low costs. Although uncertainties are considerable, the modeling results and the bottom-up analyses all suggest that at the global level around 50% of greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced at carbon price (costs) below 100$/tCO2-eq—but with a wide range of 30–60%. At a carbon price (costs) less than 20$/tCO2-eq, still 10–35% of emissions may be abated. The variation of results is higher at low carbon-price levels than at high levels.
Article
The design of transition pathways for sustainable electricity systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires the use of energy modeling tools that are able to account for two key aspects: the evolution of fossil fuels and technology prices, and the natural dynamics of renewable resources. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used focus on only one of these two aspects, which hinders their suitability for performing long-term analysis with high penetrations of renewable energy sources. This paper presents a modeling framework that is able to optimize the investment in new renewable generation capacity on the long-term while taking into account the hourly dynamics of electricity supply and demand. The framework combines two of the most used energy planning tools, each able to account for one of the aspects of the modeling of energy systems. The framework was applied to continental Portugal for the time period of 2005–2050, in order to identify optimal investment plans in new renewable and fossil generation capacity with the goal of achieving significant CO2 emissions reduction, under different scenarios. The results show that the inclusion of dynamics in the modeling methodology can help avoid overinvestment and reduce the excess of electricity from renewable energy sources that cannot be used by the system. These results can have a significant impact on the design of a sustainable electricity system and may lead to a diversification of the energy sources used.
Article
This paper will summarise the European Strategy for Energy and Climate Change. In current international negotiations Europe has proposed a 20% reduction in GHG (greenhouse gases) in the developed countries by 2020 or 30% should there be an international agreement in the domain. However it is important to define measures to achieve the targets. One of the principal tools is to improve energy efficiency under the energy efficiency action plan, which will help to achieve a 20% energy saving by 2020. On the other hand, the amount of energy from renewable sources consumed in Europe will have to rise from its current level of 8.5%–20% by 2020.These are ambitious but achievable targets. Nonetheless, these can only be achieved through strong investment in areas of the knowledge triangle which strengthens research and innovation in the energy sector in Europe. The paper covers European Energy and Climate Change Policy, the European Strategic Energy Technology plan, the consequences of the Lisbon Treaty, European and national Road maps to a low carbon economy, the Energy Efficiency Plan for 2011 and finishes with a brief consideration of the EU’s energy infrastructure priorities.
Article
Decisions of electricity suppliers on investments in low-carbon energy technologies like photovoltaic (PV) and carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) depend on the expected profits or surpluses that can be earned. For an assessment of the profitability of investments in PV (and other renewable energy technologies), additional costs caused by the fluctuation in PV power plants’ productivity and by the need for backup capacities have to be taken into account. Changes in the rest of the power plant stock will via their influence on the merit-order curve also affect the return on investment. Bearing these aspects in mind, it might become more attractive to invest in alternative technologies like CCS than to channel the investments towards PV in combination with backup power plants. In our study we compare investments in CCS and PV regarding possible merit-order effects and profitability, using investments in Germany as an example.
Article
This work analyzes different modeling methodologies for balancing the electricity supply sources and the electricity demand in systems with high penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and run-of-river hydro. This work also explores the reasons and the circumstances where common balance approaches used by mid- and long-term energy models show significant differences in dispatched renewable sources, overestimating the renewable share in the electricity mix and underestimating the amount of CO2 emitted by the electric system, when compared to balance methods with high time resolution. These reasons and circumstances are illustrated for the Flores island (Azores) case study which has already achieved a share of 50% of renewable energies in electricity production in 2009.
Article
Integrated Assessment models, widely applied in climate change mitigation research, show that renewable energy sources (RES) play an important role in the decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, the representation of relevant technologies in those models is highly stylized, thereby omitting important information about the variability of electricity demand and renewables supply. We present a power system model combining long time scales of climate change mitigation and power system investments with short-term fluctuations of RES. Investigating the influence of increasingly high temporal resolution on the optimal technology mix yields two major findings: the amount of flexible natural gas technologies for electricity generation rises while the share of wind energy only depends on climate policy constraints. Furthermore, overall power system costs increase as temporal resolution is refined in the model, while mitigation costs remain unaffected.
Article
High fuel costs, increasing energy security and concerns with reducing emissions have pushed governments to invest in the use of renewable energies for electricity generation. However, the intermittence of most renewable resources when renewable energy provides a significant share of the energy mix can create problems to electricity grids, which can be minimized by energy storage systems that are usually not available or expensive. An alternative solution consists on the use of demand side management strategies, which can have the double effect of reducing electricity consumption and allowing greater efficiency and flexibility in the grid management, namely by enabling a better match between supply and demand.This work analyzes the impact of demand side management strategies in the evolution of the electricity mix of Flores Island in the Azores archipelago which is characterized by high shares of renewable energy and therefore the introduction of more renewable energy sources makes it an interesting case study for testing innovative solutions.The electricity generation system is modeled in TIMES, a software which optimizes the investment and operation of wind and hydro plants until 2020 based on scenarios for demand growth, deployment of demand response technologies in the domestic sector and promotion of behavioral changes to eliminate standby power. The results show that demand side management strategies can lead to a significant delay in the investment on new generation capacity from renewable resources and improve the operation of the existing installed capacity.
Article
a b s t r a c t Forecasts of energy demand, the fuel mix meeting that demand and the associated emissions are a key requirement for informed energy planning and policy decisions to ensure energy security and address climate change. While there have been many studies on China focusing on the short and medium term (to 2020 and 2050) there is little in the literature focusing on the long term (to 2100). This paper seeks to address those gaps on sectoral energy demands and emissions on long term by following a two-stage approach. It develops key energy indicators on useful energy demand, transport mobility and end use fuel demand for various sectors. The main drivers of these indicators are socio-economic parameters. The indicators are used to project energy service demands and emissions forward for China in TIMES G5 model at least cost approach. The results from this reference scenario suggest that China will require approximately 4 Gtoe of primary energy, by the end of the 21st century to deliver 3 Gtoe final energy consumption, 10 PWh of electricity generation, 1.3 Gtoe of energy imports, which will results in 10 Gt CO 2 emissions. Crown Copyright Ó
Article
Climate change response, including implementation of the Kyoto targets as the first step, calls for technological innovation of future sustainable energy systems. One of the important agreements in several declarations, including the Kyoto protocol, has been to promote and coordinate the collaboration between the countries in the necessary technological development. Meanwhile, the Kyoto protocol introduced three new instruments, known as the Kyoto mechanisms, allowing industrialised countries to reach their targets by being involved in CO 2 emission control in other countries instead of controlling their own emissions. Such instruments could intensify the collaboration on technological innovation. However, it has been feared that these new instruments would rather be used by industrialised countries to neglect their part of the agreement, which would then lead to a slowdown in technological development. Based on the Danish case this paper evaluates the type of necessary technological change. During a period of 30 years Denmark has managed to stabilise primary energy supply and CO 2 emission has been decreased by 10 per cent during a period of 20 years.
Article
Emissions trading is likely to be a crucial pillar of future climate change policy. Since 2005 the European Union (EU) has implemented a CO2 emissions trading scheme, the first major global scheme of its kind, and potentially an important precursor for other such schemes. This article assesses whether the EU Emissions Trading Scheme has lived up to its promise as a cost-effective tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Kyoto Protocol targets and beyond. It outlines the possible steps to improve the functioning of the EU ETS and identifies the resulting managerial implications.
Article
Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand. This paper presents an extension of the TIMES energy planning tool for investment decisions in electricity production that considers seasonal, daily and hourly supply and demand dynamics. The inclusion of these dynamics enables the model to produce more accurate results in what concerns the impact of introducing energy efficiency policies and the increased use of renewable energies. The model was validated in São Miguel (Azores, Portugal) for the years 2006-2009, where a comparison with real data showed that the model can simulate the supply and demand dynamics. Further, the long-term analysis shows that the inclusion of these dynamics contributes to a better assessment of the renewable energy potential, suggests the postponement of investments in new generation capacity, and demonstrates that using fine time resolution modeling is very valuable for the design of effective policy measures under high renewable penetration energy systems.
Article
Portugal is a country with an energy system highly dependent on oil and gas imports. Imports of oil and gas accounted for 85% of the country's requirements in 2005 and 86% in 2006. Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the total primary energy consumption was only 14% in 2006. When focusing only on electricity production, the situation is somewhat better. The share of RES in gross electricity production varies between 20% and 35% and is dependent on the hydropower production in wet and dry years. This paper presents, on a national scale, Portugal's energy system planning and technical solutions for achieving 100% RES electricity production. Planning was based on hourly energy balance and use of H2RES software. The H2RES model provides the ability to integrate various types of storages into energy systems in order to increase penetration of the intermittent renewable energy sources or to achieve a 100% renewable island, region or country. The paper also represents a stepping-stone for studies offering wider possibilities in matching and satisfying electricity supply in Portugal with potential renewable energy sources. Special attention has been given to intermittent sources such as wind, solar and ocean waves that can be coupled to appropriate energy storage systems charged with surplus amounts of produced electricity. The storage systems also decrease installed power requirements for generating units. Consequently, these storages will assist in avoiding unnecessary rejection of renewable potential and reaching a sufficient security of energy supply.
Article
There is a wealth of experience among industrialized countries with technologies and policies to increase electricity end-use efficiency. Some developing countries are beginning to adopt these technologies and policies as well. Technologies include efficient residual appliances. HVAC equipment, light, motors and efficient industrial processes. A small number of market failures that limit the acceptance of these efficient technologies in both industrialized and developing countries are described. Experience with policies to overcome these failures and promote electricity end-use efficiency, including information programs, appliance efficiency standards, financial incentives to appliance manufacturers, commercial building energy standards, integrated resource planning, and demand-side management, is reviewed.
Article
Energy efficiency is widely viewed as an important element of energy and environmental policy. Applying the TIMES model, this paper examines the impacts of additional efficiency improvement measures (as prescribed by the ACROPOLIS project) over the baseline, at the level of individual sectors level as well as in a combined implementation, on the German energy system in terms of energy savings, technological development, emissions and costs. Implementing efficiency measures in all sectors together, CO2 reduction is possible through substitution of conventional gas or oil boilers by condensing gas boilers especially in single family houses, shifting from petrol to diesel vehicles in private transport, increased use of electric vehicles, gas combined cycle power plants and CHP (combined heat and power production) etc. At a sectoral level, the residential sector offers double benefits of CO2 reduction and cost savings. In the transport sector, on the other hand, CO2 reduction is the most expensive, using bio-fuels and methanol to achieve the efficiency targets.An additional case is examined which assumes the CO2 emissions in the combined efficiency measures case as the target. This case concludes that, with different options, the same amount of CO2 reduction is possible together with cost reductions over the baseline, confirming that the specific sectoral efficiency targets prescribed by ACROPOLIS may not be the optimal one to mitigate CO2. It applies the same efficiency improvement targets in the residential and industrial sectors but scales down the target in the service sector and avoids any further efficiency improvement in the transport sector. It replaces electricity with heating fuel in final energy consumption, while further increasing the use of gas for power generation in 2030. In 2050, part of the electricity demand is met through the import of electricity from renewable sources.
Article
There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000–2100).We present energy and emission results for climate scenarios for two levels of CO2 concentration (450 and 550 ppmv by 2100). We analyze the penetration level of nuclear energy under various sets of assumptions on technology parameters and exogenous constraints on nuclear development to reflect social perceptions. Nuclear energy technologies satisfy a large portion of electricity production in many regions. Most regions experience an energy transition based on advanced oil and gas technologies and hydropower. Other renewable technologies might play a more important role but need further cost reductions or new regulations to penetrate the market in substantial proportions. Carbon sequestration and endogenous demand reductions for energy services are also significantly contributing to reach environmental target.
Article
Eighteen years ago, in Portugal, the expenses in a water supply system associated with energy consumption were quite low. However, with the successive crises of energy fuel and the increase of the energy tariff as well as the water demand, the energy consumption is becoming a larger and a more important part of the total budget of water supply pumping systems. Also, new governmental policies, essentially in developed countries, are trying to implement renewable energies. For these reasons, a case-study in Portugal of a water pumping system was analysed to operate connected to solar and wind energy sources.A stand-alone and a grid-connected systems were tested. The stand alone was compared with the cost of extending the national electric grid. In the grid-connected system two solutions were analysed, one with a water turbine and another without. To be able to implement a water turbine, a larger water pump was needed to pump the necessary water as for consumption as for energy production. For the case analysed the system without a water turbine proved to be more cost-effective because the energy tariff is not yet so competitive as well as the cost of water turbines.
Article
This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainty in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system, and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform—this century—our global energy supply infrastructure, given the global average temperature increase as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We investigate the effect on required CO2 emission reduction efforts, both in terms of how much and when, of our present uncertain knowledge of the climate sensitivity to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We use a top–down integrated assessment model in which there are two competing energy sources, fossil and non-fossil. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves, and modest but non-zero demand exists for the relatively expensive carbon-free energy resource. We find that during the forthcoming two decades the relative roles of carbon-free energy and energy savings are similar, while in the long run the importance of carbon-free energy deployment becomes predominant, independent of the assumed climate sensitivity, but dependent on some of our model's characteristic features. We also find that, in the absence of the realisation of drastic energy efficiencies or a massive deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies, non-carbon energy resources should provide 10–30% and 80–90% of total energy supply, in 2020 and 2100, respectively. Finally, we observe that in our model the timing of the emissions reduction effort is nearly linear and close to independent of either the climate sensitivity or policy target.
Conference Paper
Spain and Portugal, based on their geographical location in the Iberian Peninsula, have limited interconnections with their European neighbors in terms of energy exchanges. This paper draws a brief overview of the present status of the Iberian Peninsula's electricity market. The topics that are presented in this paper include, who are the players in the Iberian electricity market? What are their positions? How is the market affected by the economic situations in Europe and South America? What is the expected energy mix for the coming years? Also, the paper focuses on the possible merger between the Portuguese and the Spanish markets. The creation of that common market in this case may be difficult to settle but it will reinforce the position of the two countries for electricity trading in Europe.
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