Accelerated climate change and its potential impact on yak herding livelihoods in the eastern Tibetan Plateau in the Asian Highlands

Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau has experienced rapid warming like most other alpine regions. Regional assessments show rates of warming comparable with the arctic region and decreasing Asian summer monsoons. We used meteorological station daily precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 80 stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau of southwest China to calculate local variation in the rates and seasonality of change over the last half century (1960-2008). Daily low temperatures during the growing season have increased greatly over the last 24 years (1984-2008). In sites of markedly increased warming (e.g., Deqin, Yunnan and Mangya, Qinghai), daily and growing season daily high temperatures have increased at a rate above 5 A degrees C/100 years. In Deqin, precipitation prior to the 1980s fell as snow whereas in recent decades it has shifted to rain during March and April. These shifts to early spring rains are likely to affect plant communities. Animals like yaks adapted to cold climates are also expected to show impacts with these rising temperatures. This region deserves further investigation to determine how these shifts in climate are affecting local biodiversity and livelihoods.

Full text

1 23
Climatic Change
An Interdisciplinary, International
Journal Devoted to the Description,
Causes and Implications of Climatic
Change
ISSN 0165-0009
Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-1043-6
Accelerated climate change and its
potential impact on Yak herding livelihoods
in the eastern Tibetan plateau
Michelle A.Haynes, King-Jau Samuel
Kung, Jodi S.Brandt, Yang Yongping &
Donald M.Waller

1 23
Your article is protected by copyright and all
rights are held exclusively by Springer Science
+Business Media Dordrecht. This e-offprint
is for personal use only and shall not be self-
archived in electronic repositories. If you wish
to self-archive your article, please use the
accepted manuscript version for posting on
your own website. You may further deposit
the accepted manuscript version in any
repository, provided it is only made publicly
available 12 months after official publication
or later and provided acknowledgement is
given to the original source of publication
and a link is inserted to the published article
on Springer's website. The link must be
accompanied by the following text: "The final
publication is available at link.springer.com”.

Accelerated climate change and its potential impact on Yak
herding livelihoods in the eastern Tibetan plateau
Michelle A. Haynes &King-Jau Samuel Kung &
Jodi S. Brandt &Yang Yongping &Donald M. Waller
Received: 25 November 2012 / Accepted: 19 December 2013
#Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014
Abstract The Tibetan Plateau has experienced rapid warming like most other alpine regions.
Regional assessments show rates of warming comparable with the arctic region and decreasing
Asian summer monsoons. We used meteorological station daily precipitation and daily maximum
and minimum temperature data from 80 stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau of southwest China
to calculate local variation in the rates and seasonality of change over the last half century (1960–
2008). Daily low temperatures during the growing season have increased greatly over the last 24
years (1984–2008). In sites of markedly increased warming (e.g., Deqin, Yunnan and Mangya,
Qinghai), daily and growing season daily high temperatures have increased at a rate above 5 °C/
100 years. In Deqin, precipitation prior to the 1980s fell as snow whereas in recent decades it has
shifted to rain during March and April. These shifts to early spring rains are likely to affect plant
communities. Animals like yaks adapted to cold climates are also expected to show impacts with
these rising temperatures. This region deserves further investigation to determine how these shifts
in climate are affecting local biodiversity and livelihoods.
Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-1043-6
Electronic supplementar y material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1043-6)
contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
M. A. Haynes (*):D. M. Waller
Department of Botany, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 430 Lincoln Avenue, Madison, WI 53706, USA
e-mail: michelleahaynes@gmail.com
K.<J. S. Kung
Department of Soil Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1525 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI
53706, USA
J. S. Brandt
Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive,
Madison, WI 53706, USA
Y. Yongping
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqing Str. 18, Beijing 100085,
China
Present Address:
M. A. Haynes
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, 7701 Telegraph Road, Alexandria, VA 22315,
USA
Author's personal copy

1 Introduction
The collision of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate over 10 million years ago created the
Tibetan Plateau and the eastern Himalayas. The eastern Tibetan Plateau extends eastward into
the Hengduan Mountains, famous as an international biodiversity hotspot and the site of the
Three Parallel Rivers UNESCO World Heritage site (Mittermeier et al. 1999). At least 16
ethnic groups reside within this hotspot (Xu & Wilkes 2002). Rivers originated from the
eastern Tibetan Plateau extend east through mainland China and south into southeast Asia,
providing water for approximately two billion people (Yunnan 2003).
The Eastern Tibetan Plateau is an ideal location to examine the interactions among
geographic complexity, climatic history, and areas of unique biological and cultural signifi-
cance (Haynes et al. 2013).
The climate of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau is driven by the Indian Ocean southwestern
monsoon and the Pacific Ocean southeastern monsoon (CEPF 2002). Recent decades have shown
a weakening of the monsoon effect and a slight release from its seasonal distribution of rain,
including greater variation in extreme rain events (Li et al. 2012). Studies have also shown
significant warming across the Tibetan Plateau (Li et al. 2010;Xuetal.2008;Yuetal.2010)as
well as increases in precipitation (Li et al. 2012;Qinetal.2006;Qinetal.2010;Zhaoetal.2010).
These trends of climatic changes alter ecosystem functions with cascading affects and feedbacks
on the rich biodiversity and livelihoods in the region (Xu & Wilkes 2002;Lietal.2010;Xuetal.
2009). Climate change causes grassland systems to change, with resulting decrease in species
richness (Klein et al. 2007), increasing shrub encroachment (Brandt et al. 2013), and reducing the
outputs of yak (Bos grunniens) husbandry (Haynes 2011; Miller 1999;Weineretal.2003).
In this study, we examine local patterns of change in climate across the eastern Tibetan
Plateau over the past 48 years (1960–2008). We focus on detecting and characterizing changes
not only in mean climate parameters but also local daily temperature minima and maxima as
well as the seasonality of temperature and precipitation. Our goal is to assess the increase in the
rates of climatic change across the region. Any sites identified with particularly dramatic
increases in rates of temperature change within the Tibetan Plateau may be useful for assessing
impacts of climatic change on alpine vegetation and yak husbandry. Such locations are logical
locations for further study to assess whether biological thresholds are being exceeded.
2Methods
2.1 Meteorology data
We accessed daily high temperature, daily low temperature, and precipitation data for 100
meteorology stations on the eastern Tibetan Plateau region. These stations are maintained by
the National Meteorological Administration of China and undergo quality control prior to
release (Qin et al. 2010). We conducted preliminary analyses to determine the range of dates
included, consistency of records, and number and type of gaps in the station data. Because
some of the stations began recording data prior to others, we selected 1960 as the starting year
for our analyses (the earliest year for which we had data from all selected stations). The few
stations located outside the study region were excluded as were stations with large gaps in their
records. To guard against overestimates, we also removed three stations from the results that
showed inordinate rates of warming (for example, 22 °C/100 year for daily high temperature).
Such rates appear improbable and could be misleading. In the end, 80 stations were included in
our analyses from 1960 to 2008, covering about 756,000 km
2
(Fig. 1).
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

2.2 Analyses - cumulative change
Annual cycles and certain anomalies can be observed using unmodified temperature data.
However, to detect and quantify the scope and amount of temperature and precipitation
anomalies, we used the cumulative method (Lozowski et al. 1989). Random fluctuations in
climate lead to no net effect on cumulative climate statistics, but any consistent trend will cause
summed climate variables to accumulate positive or negative trends over time (Hasanean &
Basset 2006;Lozowskietal.1989; Maechel et al. 1998). This cumulative method sums the
variable across the desired range of time and uses this curve to calculate the second derivative
providing an estimate of the rate of change (Figs. 2a,S1). In contrast to slope calculations, the
curvature method for calculating rates of change reduces error, especially with smaller rates of
change (Figs. 2b,S1). It does so by effectively filtering the noise while retaining the signal.
Preliminary time series analyses of the dataset revealed that the rate of temperature increase
was not linear, with the rate of temperature increase during the recent decades much faster than
that during the early decades. Global climate showed a cooling pattern in the 1960–1970s
Fig. 1 Map of meteorology stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau used in our analyses. Provincial and
international boundaries shown, as well as the major rivers originating on the Tibetan Plateau. Deqin, one of
the sites in northwest Yunnan, is designated with a square
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

(IPCC 2007). Our data confirms this effect at most stations. Since we were interested in
assessing how the rate of temperature change has increased over recent decades, we chose to
compare the 48- year rates of change with the 24- year rates of change. All calculations are
presented in °C/100 year rates in order to standardize and enable comparison to other studies.
We calculated mean daily low and mean daily high temperatures from 1960 to 2008 for all
stations to show the variation represented across the region sampled. Next we calculated 24-
and 48- year rates of change for precipitation, annual daily low, annual daily high, growing
season daily low, growing season daily high, winter daily low, and winter daily high. We
defined growing season as months which the monthly mean daily high ≥5 °C (in NE Qinghai
Fig. 2 Comparison of linear slope vs. cumulative curvature methods. aA sine-wave daily temperature pattern
was generated with 15 °C mean temp, 20 °C seasonal amplitude, ∀5 degrees daily random fluctuation,
superimposed with a 2×10
−4
degree per day linear slope (7.3 °C per 100 years) to simulate a temperature
increase induced by climate change. The linear regression of the sine-wave temperature pattern with R
2
value is
shown at the top.Thediagonal thick line is the cumulative daily temperature (with a best fit second power
polynomial shown at the bottom). The first derivative (i.e., the coefficient of the x term of the linear regression) is
the slope of the linear slope method. The second derivative (i.e., two times the coefficient of the x
2
term of the
polynomial fit) is the calculated slope of the curvature method. bBecause the superimposed slope is known, the
error of each method can be calculated. We generated 50,000 sets of 25-year daily random temperature
fluctuations to compare the averaged errors of the two methods. The comparison is repeated while the rates of
temperature increase per 25 years change from 1 to 10°
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

we used ≥0 °C, because no monthly mean ≥5 °C), and winter as November–March, inclusive.
To graphically depict the rates of change across stations, we constructed circle maps using
ArcGIS 9.3.
2.3 Analyses - biological thresholds
To explore some of the effects of rapid shifts in temperature on thresholds relevant to alpine
meadows, important sources of medicinal plants and vital for Tibetan yak herding livelihoods
in northwest Yunnan (Haynes & Yang 2013), we investigated when the freezing threshold
occurs to determine if it has changed between 1960 and 2008. We used temperature data at the
Deqin County station (3,320 m), and data from 13 other stations ranging from 1,646 to
4,292 m within Deqin County based on at least 20-year means (Le’anwangdui 2001).
We calculated the linear lapse rate adjustment for each month (Dodson and Marks 1997)as
this technique does not require interpolation, often inaccurate for the Himalayas (Leemans &
Cramer 1991;Rolland2003), and provides greater detail than the global mean lapse rate of -
6.5 °C km−1 (Barry & Chorley 1987). Average daily low and high temperatures at Deqin
climate station were then used to calculate low and high temperatures for February through
June at 4,000 and 4,400 m using the lapse rate adjustments. We noted when the average low
temperatures shifted from below-freezing to above-freezing temperatures, plotted against
elevation. To see if temperature changes were accompanied by changes in precipitation type,
we also plotted annual rainfall, snowfall, and total precipitation from 1960 to 2008 for each
month from February through June.
We also investigated whether temperature changes have reached thresholds directly relevant
to yak physiology, since yak husbandry is the dominate livelihood across most of the Tibetan
Plateau region (Haynes & Yang 2013). The yak has adapted to withstand cold temperatures but
experiences rising respiration rates at only 13 °C (Weiner et al. 2003). At 16 °C its heart rate
and body temperature start to rise, and at 20 °C it stops moving, grazing, drinking or
ruminating. Therefore, we counted the number of days per month in winter that were above
13 °C, 16 °C, and 20 °C to see if the number of times that these thresholds have been exceeded
has increased between 1960 and 2008 and reported the results for 16 °C. We focused on the
winter months when using the direct historical data, since livestock are herded at the lower
elevations in winter, closer to the meteorology stations in those areas. We also used the lapse
rate adjustments calculated for Deqin county and our DEM to determine average daily high
temperatures for May and June at all elevations in the alpine zone (>3,800 m), comparing the
decadal average from 1958 to 1968 with 1999–2008. Linear lapse rates fit within global
estimates and followed the expected trend from months of lower moisture to higher moisture
(Barry & Chorley 1987; Dodson & Marks 1997; Rolland 2003) (February, -6.65 °C km−1;
March, -6.35 °C km−1; April, -6.25 °C km−1; May, -5.91 °C km−1; June, -5.59 °C km−1, all
r
2
>0.97). We also searched the literature and interviewed key informants in the study region
for news of yak mortality, particularly in February and March when yaks may already be
weakened by inadequate diet during the winter.
3Results
Temperatures from these 80 stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau region reported mean
annual daily lows between -11.4 and 15.3 °C (Fig. 3a), and mean annual daily highs of 2.4 °C
to 23.3 °C (Fig. 3b). Over the past 48 years, overall rates of change in temperature varied
between -1.6 and 5.3 °C/100year. These results are consistent with those reported (Li et al.
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

2010; Qin et al. 2010;Xuetal.2008). More recently, however, these rates have greatly
accelerated at many sites. Comparing 24- and 48-year rates of change showed much higher
recent rates at most stations for most categories of change. Changes in growing season daily
high temperatures were particularly dramatic with ratios of rates of increase over the past 24
years to overall rates of increase over 48 years ranging up to >20 (Fig. 4).
Taken as a whole, daily low temperatures have increased more than daily high temperatures
(Fig. 5) as already reported (Li et al. 2010; Qin et al. 2010;Xuetal.2008;Yuetal.2010).
Fig. 3 Map of a average daily low and b average da ily high temperatures across stations
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

There are, however, sites that show a different pattern. The change in daily high temperature in
Deqin, Yunnan over the past 24 years was 7.24 °C/100 years. The rate of change in daily low
temperatures over the same period was much less (1.38 °C/100 years). For daily high
temperatures over the past 24 years, 11 stations reported >4.0 °C/100 year rates of change
and 43 reported >3.0 °C/100 years (Fig. 5c).
Growing season daily lows in the region have increased more than growing season daily
highs over the last 24 years, both in terms of the number of stations reporting this pattern and
the reported levels of recent change (Fig. 6). These rates of change for growing season daily
low temperatures exceeded >3.0 °C/100 years at 35 stations, 4.0 °C at 21 stations, 5.0 °C at
eight stations, and 6.0 °C at two. Increases in growing season daily high temperatures over the
past 24 years exceeded 3.0 °C at 30 stations and 4.0 °C at 12 (Fig. 6c). Mangya, Qinghai
showed >4.7 °C/100 year rates of change in every category measured, demonstrating a
warming trend that began before 1980 at that location.
Precipitation rates varied in complex ways across the region reflecting the complex
topography and interactions with changing temperatures and the monsoons. As these changes
have already been described in detail (Qin et al. 2010;Zhaoetal.2010), we present just one
figure of these marked changes for Deqin, Yunnan (Fig. 7). Since the mid-1980s, the amount
of precipitation from February–April has not changed significantly here but the type of
precipitation has switched. An area that previously experienced snow between February to
April now instead experiences only rain.
Many stations also experienced a marked increase in the number of days over critical
temperature thresholds in the winter months (Table 1). We expect these increases affect yak
health and survival. Our literature search revealed a scarcity of publications focusing on cases
and counts of local yak mortality, probably due to the difficulty in obtaining this level of data.
While warming above the freezing threshold can cause a shift in precipitation type from snow
to rain, warmer than usual winters can also contribute to heavy snowfall events. Interviews of
Fig. 4 Rate of temperature increase comparison showing 48-year rates and 24- year rates of change in growing
season daily high temperatures
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

yak herders and county agency staff did confirm large herd die-offs had occurred in some
areas, typically in February and March, attributing the deaths to heavy snowfall causing
starvation in weakened animals and/or increases in parasites. Comparing the elevation where
average May and June temperatures crossed 13 °C, 16 °C, and 20 °C thresholds in 1958–1968
with 1999–2008 shows dramatic increases in spatial area experiencing temperatures that
negatively affect yak physiology and performance have occurred (Fig. 8). During the month
of June, the area underneath the 13 °C threshold for yak performance diminished from 24 % to
8 % of the landscape over fifty years.
4Discussion
The cumulative method for analyzing historical climate data (Lozowski et al. 1989) can reduce
noise and improve clarity for assessing anomalies to provide greater sensitivity for assessing
trends of climate change (S1). Our results confirm the warming pattern documented in other
assessments of the region (Fan et al. 2009; Qin et al. 2010;Yuetal.2010) and highlight sites
with increasing rates of change within the region. We do not believe that stations reporting
high rates of change reflect an urban heat island effect (Li et al. 2010). Such effects should be
manifest throughout the year. Even stations with the highest rates of change for certain
Fig. 5 Map of average daily low a 24- and b48-year and average daily high c 24- and d48-year rates of
change across stations
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

variables did not record increases in other variables (e.g., daily high increases despite
consistent daily lows). The patterns also showed seasonality, decreasing in magnitude and
direction during certain months.
Experimental climate change simulations have showed rapid plant community response to
warming temperatures (Klein et al. 2004,2007;Yuetal.2010). However, none have yet simulated
temperature increases of the kind we found at many stations exceeding 5 °C/100 years.
Such extreme changes can result in vegetation shifts. For example, Thuiller et al. (2008)
report up-slope movements of certain plant species in the Northern Hemisphere at a rate of
6.1 m per decade that appear correlated with shifts in precipitation and temperature over the
last 50 years. Globally, each 1 °C of temperature change moves ecological zones by 160 m
higher in altitude (Thuiller 2007). Therefore, the rate of change of 7.2 °C/100 years that was
recorded over the last 24 years at Deqin county corresponds to a 276.5 m altitudinal shift, over
11 m each year. In addition, Brandt et al. (2013) measured an annual shrub expansion rate of
2.1 % in northwest Yunnan related to early snow melt and climate warming in this area. Other
studies in northwest Yunnan have shown similar increases in treeline using repeat photography
(Baker & Moseley 2007;Moseley2006).
It remains uncertain whether species will have the capability to respond by colonizing new
areas or rapidly adapting their physiological behavior to match changing habitat conditions
(Parmesan 2007; Woodward 1987). Most alpine plants control growing season activities in
Fig. 6 Map of growing season average daily low a 24- and b48-year and average daily high c 24- and d48-
year rates of change across stations
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

response to photoperiods rather than temperature (Körner & Basler 2010; Keller & Körner
2003). This precludes the potential benefit of longer growing seasons, causing extra stress due
to respiratory losses when plants are not covered by snow (Körner 2009). Wang et al.(2011)
shows increases in soil temperature and permafrost temperatures, particularly over the last 20
Fig. 7 Average daily low and daily high temperatures (°C) at Deqin station (3,320 m) and calculated at 4,000 m
and 4,400 m using the linear lapse rates. Shifts from snowfall to rainfall between 1960 and 2008 in February,
March, April, May and June at the Deqin station (3,320 m)
Ta b l e 1 Regions showing increased incidence of winter temperatures >16 °C in February and March. Prior to
1984 these stations show no recorded daily highs >16 °C in February and March, during the months that yaks are
at lower elevations closer to the stations
Station Province Years exceeding 16 °C threshold
Nangqian (囊谦) S Qinghai 1999, 2003, 2004, 2007
Yu s hu ( 玉树) S QingHai 1999, 2004, 2007
Jiangsu (江孜) SE Tibet 1999, 2004, 2007
Zaduo (杂多) SE Tibet 1999, 2004, 2007
Bomi (波密) SE Tibet 2004, 2007
Changdu (昌都) SE Tibet 1999, 2004, 2006, 2007
Longzi (隆子) SE Tibet 1999, 2001, 2004, 2007
Rikaze (日喀则) S Tibet 1999, 2001, 2004, 2007
Daocheng (稻城) SW Sichuan 1999, 2007
Litang (理塘) SW Sichuan 1999, 2007
Ma’erkang (马尔康) W Sichuan 1999 to 2008
Dege (德格) W Sichuan 1999, 2004, 2006, 2007
Gansu (甘孜) W Sichuan 1999, 2004, 2007
Daofu (道孚) W Sichuan 1999, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2007
Xinlong (新龙) >20 °C W Sichuan 1999, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

years. Changes in the type of precipitation may also significantly change vegetation, as rain
soaks directly into the ground whereas snow accumulates over the winter before being released
during the late spring or early summer (Freppaz et al. 2008;Pengetal.2010;Zhaoetal.2010).
Transitions in evapotranspiration rates in response to climatic drivers (Fan & Thomas 2013)
and coupled impacts of climate and anthropogenic induced changes including habitat
Fig. 8 May and June average daily high temperatures in the alpine zone in Deqin county from 1959–1968 and
1999–2008, showing 13 °C, 16 °C, and 20 °C thresholds with adversely impact yak physiology and performance
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

fragmentation (Wischnewski et al. 2011) may cause shifts in hydrologic systems including
water retention, runoff, and erosion.
Our initial investigation into the impact of temperature increase on yaks suggests that yaks
suffer because temperatures are surpassing yaks’physiological thresholds. However, impacts of
changing climate on yak health and husbandry overall may be complex, interacting, and far-
reaching. Heavy snowfall, for example, may be precipitated by warm winter temperatures,
which can result in reduced forage and large-scaleherd die-offs. (Li et al. 2010). There may also
be cycles of impact, as when warmer spring temperatures stimulate shifts in timing when
herders move their livestock across the landscape, increasing the potential for parasite infesta-
tion as they spend more time by warm pools of stagnant water that support parasite populations.
Such factors accentuate the already drastic decrease in June habitat below the 13 °C threshold
by two-thirds since 1958–1968. These multiple causes warrant further investigation, as yaks
continue to provide the livelihoods for the majority of the region’s inhabitants.
5Conclusion
We confirm regional assessments of climate change in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and challenge
those results by assessing more detailed patterns including sites with increasing rates of climate
change. The extreme warming and shifts in precipitation observed at some sites suggest that rapid
climate change may be exerting strong effects on vegetation, hydrology, livestock health, and thus
livelihoods in the area (Xu et al. 2009). Such impacts warrant further study as rates of warming
above 5 °C/100 years exceed the upper limits of most warming scenarios. These historical rates of
change are higher than even the worst case predicted changes in temperature increases for the
eastern Tibetan Plateau. Given that such rapid rates of warming have already happened in this
region, we need further research to investigate its consequences. Thus, the eastern Tibetan Plateau
could serve as a valuable opportunity to understand how other areas will likely respond to
changing climates and explore mitigation and adaptation strategies that target those impacts.
Acknowledgments This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under
Grant No. DGE-0549369 IGERT: Training Program on Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Development
in Southwest China at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. We thank graduate students at Kunming Institute of
Botany and staff at the Shangri-la Alpine Botanical Garden for their assistance. We would also like to thank two
anonymous reviewers for their contribution.
References
Baker B, Moseley R (2007) Advancing treeline and retreating glaciers: implications for conservation in Yunnan,
P.R. China. Arct Antarct Alp Res 39:200–209
Barry R, Chorley R (1987) Atmosphere, Weather, and Climate, 5 edn. Routledge
Brandt JS, Haynes MA, Kuemmerle T, Fang ZD, Waller DM, Radeloff VC (2013) Regime shift on the roof of the
world: alpine meadows converting to shrublands in the southern Himalayas. Biol Conserv 158:116–127
Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF) (2002) Ecosystem profile. Mountains of Southwest China hotspot.
Conservation International, Washington
Dodson R, Marks D (1997) Daily air temperature interpolated at high spatial resolution over a large mountainous
region. Climate Res 8
Fan Z-X, Brauning A, Yang B, Cao K-F (2009) Tree ring density-based summer temperature reconstruction for
the central Hengduan Mountains in southern China. Global Planet Change 65:1–11
Fan Z-X, Thomas A (2013) Spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and its contributing
climatic factors in Yunnan Province, SW China, 1961–2004. Clim Change 116:309–325
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

Freppaz M, Celi L, Marchelli M, Zanini E (2008) Snow removal and its influence on temperature and N
dynamics in alpine soils (Vallee d’Aoste, northwest Italy). J Plant Nutr Soil Sci 171:672–680
Hasanean HM, Basset HA (2006) Variability of summer temperature over Egypt. Int J Climatol 26:1619–1634
Haynes MA (2011) Impacts of a changing climate and yak herding practices on alpine rangelands and Tibetan
livelihoods in southwest China. PhD Thesis in Botany. University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI.
Haynes MA, Fang ZD, Waller DM (2013) Grazing impacts on the diversity and composition of alpine rangelands
in northwest Yunnan. J Plant Ecol 6(2):122–130
Haynes M, Yang Y (2013) Adapting to change: transitions in traditional rangeland management of Tibetan yak
herders in northwest Yunnan. Environ Dev Sustain 15:1065–1077
IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers of climate change 2007: the physical science basic contribution of work
group to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge
Keller F, Körner C (2003) The role of photoperiodism in alpine plant development. Arct Antarct Alp Res 35:361–368
Klein JA, Harte J, Zhao XQ (2004) Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by
simulated grazing, on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecol Lett 7:1170–1179
Klein JA, Harte J, Zhao XQ (2007) Experimental warming, not grazing, decreases rangeland quality on the
Tibetan Plateau. Ecol Appl 17:541–557
Körner C (2009) Mountain vegetation under environmental change. In: Jandl R, Borsdorf A, Van
Miegroet H, Lackner R, Psenner R (eds) Alpine Space—Man and Environment, vol 7: Global change and
sustainable development in mountain regions. Innsbruck University Press, Innsbruck, pp 25–30
Körner C, Basler D (2010) Plant science. Phenology under global warming. Science 327:1461–1462
Le’anwangdui (2001) Diqing Zangzu Zizhizou Zhi, Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo Di Fang Zhi Cong Shu.
Yunnan minzu chubanshe (in chinese), Kunming Shi
Leemans R, Cramer W (1991) The IIASA database for mean monthly values of temperature, precipitation and
cloudiness on a global terrestrial grid. IIASA Research Report RR-91-18
Li L, Yang S, Wang Z, Zhu X, Tang H (2010) Evidence of warming and wetting climate over the Qinghai-Tibet
plateau. Arct Antarct Alp Res 42:449–457
Li Z-X, He Y-Q, Wang P-Y, Theakstone WH, An W-L, Wang X-F et al (2012) Changes of daily climate extremes
in sourthwestern China during 1961–2008. Global Planet Change 80/81:255–272
Lozowski EP, Charlton RB, Nguyen CD, Wilson JD (1989) The use of cumulative monthly mean temperature
anomalies in the analysis of local interannual climate variability. J Climate 2(9):1059–1068
Maechel H, Kapala A, Flohn H (1998) Behavior of the centres of action above the Atlantic since 1881. Part 1:
characteristics of seasonal and interannual variability. Int J Climatol 18:1–22
Miller D (1999) Herders of forty centuries: nomads of Tibetan rangelands in western China. People and
rangelands, building the future, proceedings of the VI international rangeland congress. CSIRO,
Queensland, Australia
Mittermeier R, Meyers N, Mittermeier N, Gil P, Ford H (1999) Hot spots: earth’s biologically richest and most
endangered terrestrial ecoregions, cemex. Conservation Int, Mexico City
Moseley RK (2006) Historical landscape change in northwestern Yunnan, China: using repeat photography to
assess the perceptions and realities of biodiversity loss. Mt Res Dev 26:214–219
Parmesan C (2007) Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to
global warming. Glob Chang Biol 13:1860–1872
Peng S, Piao S, Ciais P, Fang J, Wang X (2010) Change in winter snow depth and its impacts on vegetation in
China. Glob Chang Biol 16:3004–3013
Qin DH, Liu SY, Li PJ (2006) Snow cover distribution, variability, and response to climate change in western
China. J Climate 19:1820–1833
Qin N, Chen X, Fu G, Zhai J, Xue X (2010) Precipitation and temperature trends for the Southwest China: 1960–
2007. Hydrol Processes 24:3733–3744
Rolland C (2003) Spatial and seasonal variations of Air temperature lapse rates in alpine regions. J Climate 16:1032–1046
Thuiller W (2007) Climate change and the ecologist. Nature 448:550–552
Thuiller W, Albert CH, Araújo MB, Berry PM, Cabeza M, Guisan G, Hickler T, Midgley GF, Paterson J, Schurr
FM, Sykes MT, Zimmermann NE (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species distributions:
future challenges. Perspect Plant Ecol 9:137–152, Evolution and Systematics
Wang G, Bai W, Li N, Hu H (2011) Climate changes and its impact on tundra ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet
Plateau, China. Clim Change 106:463–482
Weiner G, Han JL, Long RJ (2003) The yak. 2nd ed. The regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Bangkok, Thailand
Wischnewski J, Kramer A, Kong Z, Mackay AW, Simpson GL, Mischke S, Herzschuh U (2011) Terrestrial and
aquatic responses to climate change and human impact on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past
two centuries. Glob Chang Biol 17:3376–3391
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy

Woodward FI (1987) Climate and plant distribution. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK
Xu J, Grumbine RE, Shrestha A, Eriksson M, Yang X et al (2009) The melting Himalayas: cascading effects of
climate change on water, biodiversity and livelihoods. Conserv Biol 23:520–530
Xu J, Wilkes A (2002) People and ecosystems in mountain landscape of northwest Yunnan: causes of
biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. Glob Environ Res 6(1):103–110
Xu ZX, Gong TL, Li JY (2008) Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau—regional temperature and
precipitation. Hydrol Processes 22:3056–3065
Yu H, Luedeling E, Xu J (2010) Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan
Plateau. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:22151–22156
Yunnan Management Bureau of Three Parallel Rivers National Park. (2003) Three Parallel Rivers of Yunnan
Protected Area Nomination for World Natural Heritage Status - Additional Information. Yunnan Province,
China. 22pp
Zhao P, Yang S, Yu R (2010) Long-term changes in the rainfall over eastern China and associated atmospheric
circulation under the global warming scenario. J Climate 23:1544–1562
Climatic Change
Author's personal copy