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The practice of foresight in long-term planning
... O método de planejamento por cenários pode ajudar as organizações a desenvolverem a capacidade de antecipar futuros possíveis por meio da realização de uma varredura de forma efetiva no ambiente. Isso é condição essencial para construir cenários de futuros alternativos (BOWMAN, 2016;PETER;JARRATT, 2015). A maioria das organizações tende a concentrarse no presente e no futuro imediato em oposição à reflexão e ação em ambiente incerto ou descontínuo (PETER; JARRATT, 2015). ...
... O método de planejamento por cenários pode ajudar as organizações a desenvolverem a capacidade de antecipar futuros possíveis por meio da realização de uma varredura de forma efetiva no ambiente. Isso é condição essencial para construir cenários de futuros alternativos (BOWMAN, 2016;PETER;JARRATT, 2015). A maioria das organizações tende a concentrarse no presente e no futuro imediato em oposição à reflexão e ação em ambiente incerto ou descontínuo (PETER; JARRATT, 2015). ...
... Isso é condição essencial para construir cenários de futuros alternativos (BOWMAN, 2016;PETER;JARRATT, 2015). A maioria das organizações tende a concentrarse no presente e no futuro imediato em oposição à reflexão e ação em ambiente incerto ou descontínuo (PETER; JARRATT, 2015). Geralmente, não tem sido adotado na prática de planejamento tradicional capturar e integrar sinais fortes e fracos para gerar cenários que descrevem futuros descontínuos e contínuos (HAEGEMAN et al., 2013). ...
At a global level, within the various initiatives, strategic plans based on future studies permeate organizations, non-governmental entities, and countries. It is known that conducting a strategic planning project based on scenarios requires investments, there are several actors involved, it is difficult to maintain actions in accordance with the dynamism and complexity of environments and these can affect the credibility of the methods used. Therefore, organizations need to understand that positive outcomes and risks can be the result of these investments. This study aims to comprehend the use of scenario planning through empirical research with data
collection, regarding the nature of its process as well as its effectiveness in organizational performance. Decision-making, whether formal or informal, assists and shapes the future of the corporation in achieving its goals or mitigating potential risks, which can be anticipated through scenario exercises. To ensure effectiveness, because of implemented foresight studies, it is necessary to validate the real applications of scenario creation in the decision-making process of professionals in the strategy field. From the studies, not only can a clear difference be perceived between industries, organizational structures, leaderships, and sectors, but also
expands the understanding of the strategic value of using scenario in the same sector where organizational maturity is found in different phases (theory and applied practice).
... O método de planejamento por cenários pode ajudar as organizações a desenvolverem a capacidade de antecipar futuros possíveis por meio da realização de uma varredura de forma efetiva no ambiente. Isso é condição essencial para construir cenários de futuros alternativos (BOWMAN, 2016;PETER;JARRATT, 2015). A maioria das organizações tende a concentrarse no presente e no futuro imediato em oposição à reflexão e ação em ambiente incerto ou descontínuo (PETER; JARRATT, 2015). ...
... O método de planejamento por cenários pode ajudar as organizações a desenvolverem a capacidade de antecipar futuros possíveis por meio da realização de uma varredura de forma efetiva no ambiente. Isso é condição essencial para construir cenários de futuros alternativos (BOWMAN, 2016;PETER;JARRATT, 2015). A maioria das organizações tende a concentrarse no presente e no futuro imediato em oposição à reflexão e ação em ambiente incerto ou descontínuo (PETER; JARRATT, 2015). ...
... Isso é condição essencial para construir cenários de futuros alternativos (BOWMAN, 2016;PETER;JARRATT, 2015). A maioria das organizações tende a concentrarse no presente e no futuro imediato em oposição à reflexão e ação em ambiente incerto ou descontínuo (PETER; JARRATT, 2015). Geralmente, não tem sido adotado na prática de planejamento tradicional capturar e integrar sinais fortes e fracos para gerar cenários que descrevem futuros descontínuos e contínuos (HAEGEMAN et al., 2013). ...
Comparing practices betweeh brazilian scnearios and South Africa, analysing the differences.
... Research on anticipation reflects a wide extent the strategic planning view, according to which CF is conducted to ease strategic planning and development. This relatively broad area of research focuses on the necessity of CF for strategic success and its role in the strategy development process (Buehring & Liedtka, 2018;Peter & Jarratt, 2015). In this context, another main motivator for CF engagement is the need for higher certainty in decision-making (Savioz & Blum, 2002;Schweitzer, Hofmann, & Meinheit, 2019). ...
... Structural moderators, therefore, refer to the organizational design of an organization, hierarchical levels and the distance of CF to relevant decision-making instances. Research emphasizes the impact formal structures have on CF outcomes (Daheim & Uerz, 2008;Peter & Jarratt, 2015), attesting a facilitating role of flat structures and hierarchies (Costanzo, 2004). The formal integration of CF is dependent on organizational size. ...
... The moderating factor of CF legitimation is dependent on managerial inclusion in CF activities, as emphasized by a broad set of research. By engaging in CF and prioritizing it, managers create credibility among organization members (Peter & Jarratt, 2015;Rohrbeck, 2012;Rohrbeck & Schwarz, 2013;Savioz & Blum, 2002;Tapinos, 2013). However, if CF is not a management priority, it lacks the required entitlement, causing ineffectiveness (Battistella, 2014;Daheim & Uerz, 2008). ...
Corporate foresight (CF) has received increasing attention from scholars and practitioners alike. Due to the increasing environmental complexity and unpredictability that the corporate world is encountering, companies from various sectors have realized the need to engage in CF to mitigate uncertainty. However, current research on the topic remains fragmented and lacks conceptual connection. This study, therefore, aims to examine the extant CF research and provides a systematic insight into its key components. Through a narrative synthesis of a sample comprising 73 articles published over the last two decades in leading business and management journals, we developed an integrative framework that maps the key elements underpinning CF literature (including antecedents, tools/activities, moderators, technology, and outcomes) and explicates their interplay. We also highlighted the bidirectional effect of technology, as a distinct construct, across CF elements, and discussed the need to identify technology-related boundary conditions that may influence the manifestation of CF outcomes. Moreover, we utilized the developed framework as a platform to identify critical gaps in the CF research and suggest related future research trajectories.
... Drawing upon Sardar and Sweeney's (2016) "Post Normal Times" (PNT), as possible futures become more complex, it is more appropriate for future thinking to embrace the 'complexity, chaos, and contradictions' of current times. Moreover, explorations into futures ought to emphasise their dynamic and diverse nature, the chaotic potential, and the contradictory possibilities to develop foresight (Montuori, 2011;Peter & Jarratt, 2015). This is challenging and requires the ability to develop cohesive pathways, plausible outcomes, and multiple viewpoints. ...
... Secondly, our findings support Montuori's (2011) notion that emotional responses, facilitated in this study by polylogues, help overcome multiple, complex, and uncomfortable futures. Initial Reactions and Widening Views characterised the contending perspectives associated with future thinking (Peter & Jarratt, 2015; encouraged humour, positive mood, and optimism within our participants. The group interactions lead to a certain level of emotional congruity (Slaughter, 2020;Yeoman et al., 2021). ...
This paper critically examines how future thinking is positioned in the mindset of event professionals through the lens of provocative far future scenarios. In debating these far future scenarios within a polylogue (multiple voices) framework, we explore how dianoetic (discursive reasoning) approaches can facilitate long-term ´civilisational´ thinking and capture stakeholder reactions and emotions to future event environments. As such, our study contributes comparative qualitative insights into how current and future industry professionals respond to the contradictions and complexities of event futures. Our findings have implications for industry resilience and strategic thinking at a time when Covid-19 pandemic recovery has coincided with other global economic challenges and unpredictable threats such as climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of developing effective tools to overcome emotional barriers to thinking about the future. They also reveal the importance of engaging a broad stakeholder demographic and learning from other sectors to diversify conversations about the future.
... In contrast, the task-describing procedures explicitly describe the elements of the procedure instead of referring to the procedure of other methods (e.g. Paliokaite et al., 2014;Peter and Jarratt, 2015;van Dorsser and Taneja, 2020;Voros, 2003). Due to the formulated aim of this article and the formulated RQ, the task-describing procedures are focused. ...
... van Dorsser and Taneja, 2020; Voros, 2003) and linear procedures (e.g. Paliokaite et al., 2014;Peter and Jarratt, 2015). Due to the formulated six assumptions, especially short-term, surprise and incompleteness, linear-oriented procedures are excluded (Hines, 2020). ...
Due to the strategic understanding of PSM, an intrinsic interest exists in researching one’s future of PSM. Recently, calls for more forward-looking, explorative, and futureoriented research in PSM have emerged. Researching the future is predominately conducted in the research field of ‘futures studies’ that deals with the scientific study of future developments to formulate reasonable assumptions of the future to influence today’s actions. In light of existing calls for more research, it is critical to question the extent to which core principles of ‘futures studies’ are already reflected in PSM. Following propositions from dedicated methodological frameworks from ‘futures studies’, a systematic literature review has been completed. This systematic literature review identifies and examines 75 contributions in the field of PSM and investigates possible hints on how to explore futures in PSM. Following the propositions on how to execute ‘futures studies’, it seems as if research in PSM mainly focuses on exploring potential assumptions for future developments and on analyzing and interpreting those assumptions in light of future developments. Research results seem loosely coupled in light of the applied framework on how to conduct ‘futures studies’. The first results indicate that studies and methodological insights on how to (scientifically) create and validateimaginable futures (including creating images of multiple futures) and how to transfer those indications from imaginable futures in today’s actions are missing. Although individual articles provide insight into a highly focused segment of the future, no holistic insight into the future exists. Consequently, PSM is missing an integrated approach of ‘futures studies’ to developing insights into the future. In other words, the subsequent question arises as to whether transferring methods from ‘futures studies’ to research in PSM can yield new insights.
... In contrast, the task-describing procedures explicitly describe the elements of the procedure instead of referring to the procedure of other methods (e.g. Paliokaite et al., 2014;Peter and Jarratt, 2015;van Dorsser and Taneja, 2020;Voros, 2003). Due to the formulated aim of this article and the formulated RQ, the task-describing procedures are focused. ...
... van Dorsser and Taneja, 2020; Voros, 2003) and linear procedures (e.g. Paliokaite et al., 2014;Peter and Jarratt, 2015). Due to the formulated six assumptions, especially short-term, surprise and incompleteness, linear-oriented procedures are excluded (Hines, 2020). ...
Due to the strategic understanding of PSM, an intrinsic interest exists in researching one's future of PSM. Recently calls for more forward-looking, explorative, and future-oriented research in PSM have emerged. Researching the future is predominately conducted in the research field of 'futures studies' that deals with the scientific study of future developments to formulate reasonable assumptions of the future to influence to-day's actions. In light of existing calls for more research, it is critical to question the extent to which core principles of 'futures studies' are already reflected in PSM. Following propositions from dedicated methodological frameworks from 'futures studies' a systematic literature review has been completed. This systematic literature review identifies and examines 75 contributions in the field of PSM and investigates possible hints on how to explore futures in PSM. Following the propositions on how to execute 'futures studies', it seems as if research in PSM mainly focuses on exploring potential assumptions for future developments and on analysing and interpreting those assumptions in light of future developments. Research results seem loosely coupled in light of the applied framework on how to conduct 'futures studies'. The first results indicate that studies and methodological insights on how to (scientifically) create and validate imaginable futures (including creating images of multiple futures) and how to transfer those indications from imaginable futures in today's actions are missing. Although individual articles provide insight into a highly focused segment of the future, no holistic insight into the future exists. Consequently, PSM is missing an integrated approach of 'futures stud-ies' to developing insights into the future. In other words, the subsequent question arises as to whether transferring methods from' futures studies' to research in PSM can yield new insights.
... Foresight " OR " Organizational Foresight ") AND ("Technology" OR "Roadmap" AND "Value" OR "Performance" OR "Capability" OR "Advantage" OR "Improvement" OR "Enhancement")) (Nicolaisen & Hjørland, 2007) . (Ruff F. , 2006) International Journal of Technology Management * * * 2 (Oner, 2007) International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (Peter & Jarratt, 2015) Technological Forecasting and Social Change * * * 36 (Rhisiart, Miller, & Brooks, 2015) Technological Forecasting & Social Change * * * 37 (Rohrbeck, R.; Battistella, C.; Huizingh, E., 2015) ...
Due to the speed and uncertainty of environmental changes, firms become less confident in the effectiveness of planning that is based on previous experience and assumptions. Instead, executives started to recognize that business decisions should not only be driven by past data, but also be based on systematic evaluation of possible forthcoming trends by constantly scanning for and interpreting discontinuities in the external environment. Corporate foresight can be defined as the desire of the company to understand futures for the long-term interests of the company. This article was written with the aim of a systematic review of corporate foresight literature between 2006 and 2022. The systematic review of corporate foresight literature includes the scientific research works of countries, the distribution of articles based on the year of publication, journals, authors, the number of citations to the journals and researchers and classified from the prospective of methodology. The findings show that the subject of corporate foresight has received more attention over time, and researchers can use different theoretical and methodological approaches to investigate corporate foresight and cover the research gap.
... Foresight -not only in SMEs -cannot be implemented without a managerial mindset within the organization. To drive the integration of foresight, the use of communication before, during and after the planning processes across all areas of the organization is essential [27]. It is also advisable to open new internal communication channels [16]. ...
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of many economies. In today's world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), SMEs face diverse challenges to survive and stay competitive. SMEs must prepare themselves for these challenges by practicing foresight. However, foresight, and especially corporate foresight, has been conceptualized and researched in the context of large corporations. Applying foresight in SMEs is therefore complicated by the question of how to implement foresight in the context of SMEs given their specific requirements and limitations. This article provides an overview on the literature on the application of foresight in SMEs is, along with a summary of the extent to which SMEs conduct foresight from an organizational and individual perspective. Besides offering a compendium on the state of foresight in SMEs, a research agenda is formulated, incorporating the idea of a toolbox tailored to SMEs based on existing approaches and prior works.
... Dans les systèmes complexes entachés de grandes incertitudes, il est fréquent d'élaborer des scénarios pour explorer l'avenir. Des stratégies peuvent alors être développées pour gérer les futures menaces et exploiter les chances (Peter et Jarratt 2015). Pour la construction de tels scéna-e Pour impliquer toutes les actrices et tous les acteurs, une analyse des parties prenantes est nécessaire à un stade très précoce du processus. ...
Les effets des changements climatiques en Suisse s'intensifient, comme en témoignent de manière indiscutable les récentes vagues de chaleur et les crues dévastatrices. Cette aggravation annoncée présente des défis majeurs pour les communes et les régions. La nouvelle plateforme «Adaptation aux Changements Climatiques Intégrée (ACCI)» les aide à mettre en oeuvre, grâce à une démarche participative, des mesures efficaces, fondées sur des données scientifiques solides, et soutenues par toutes les parties prenantes.
... The sustainability of business tourism activities was brought into sharp focus during the Covid-19 pandemic and remains a pertinent topic globally in relation to other threats such as climate change. Proponents of future thinking and scenario-based planning argue that it can better prepare organisations and individuals for future challenges (Peter & Jarratt, 2015). Critics, however, point to disbenefits such as the distraction it can cause to day-to-day business operations (Hines & Gold, 2015). ...
... (189). (190) Strategic foresight is a methodological and systematic approach that organizations and individuals adopt to anticipate and prepare for future challenges and opportunities. It involves exploring and understanding potential futures, identifying emerging trends and drivers of change, and developing robust strategies to navigate uncertainty and complexity. ...
Το διάστημα έχει εξελιχθεί από το τέλος του Ψυχρού Πολέμου ως ένας σημαντικός παράγοντας που καθορίζει την ισορροπία δυνάμεων σε όλο τον κόσμο. Συγκεκριμένα, η μετάβαση από έναν σχετικά σταθερό διπολικό κόσμο σε έναν πολυπολικό κόσμο που χαρακτηρίζεται από αστάθεια είχε ως αποτέλεσμα όλο και περισσότερα κράτη να αναζητούν ανεξαρτησία στον διαστημικό τομέα και να αναπτύσσουν τα δικά τους εθνικά διαστημικά προγράμματα. Η κατάρρευση της Σοβιετικής Ένωσης το 1991 μετέτρεψε τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες τόσο σε παγκόσμια υπερδύναμη όσο και σε βασικό ρυθμιστή σχέσεων και συμφερόντων σε κάθε γωνιά του πλανήτη. Το ίδιο συνέβη και στο διάστημα, με τις ΗΠΑ να αναπτύσσουν κάθε τύπο δορυφόρου τόσο εμπορικά όσο και στρατιωτικά, κατέχοντας σχεδόν το 68% του συνολικού αριθμού δορυφόρων, γεγονός που μπορεί να τους προσφέρει σημαντικό έλεγχο του διαστήματος. Η ηγεμονία των ΗΠΑ στο διάστημα έχει δημιουργήσει για τις υπόλοιπες υπερδυνάμεις του κόσμου, όπως η Ρωσία και η Κίνα, ένα δίλημμα ασφαλείας που προκαλείται από μια πιο μειονεκτική θέση ισχύος έναντι των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών στο διάστημα. Έτσι, τα κράτη αυτά, στην προσπάθειά τους να το αντιμετωπίσουν, και δεδομένου ότι οι ΗΠΑ βασίζουν σημαντικά τις στρατιωτικές τους δυνατότητες σε διαστημικά μέσα και επειδή δεν έχουν ακόμη παρόμοια παρουσία με τις ΗΠΑ στο διάστημα, επιλέγουν να θεωρούν τους αμερικανικούς δορυφόρους ως πιθανούς στρατιωτικούς στόχους. Έτσι, προκειμένου να μειώσουν τη στρατιωτική ισχύ των ΗΠΑ, αναζητούν μεθόδους για να απενεργοποιήσουν ή να καταστρέψουν τους δορυφόρους τους. Η τακτική αυτή επανέφερε στο προσκήνιο την αόρατη πλευρά του διαστήματος, η οποία χαρακτηρίζεται από τον όρο «Ασφάλεια στο Διάστημα». Πιο συγκεκριμένα, οι αντιδορυφορικές δοκιμές που πραγματοποιήθηκαν από τη Ρωσία, την Κίνα, τις ΗΠΑ και την Ινδία, σε συνδυασμό με την επίσημη διεθνή αναγνώριση του διαστήματος ως πεδίου στρατιωτικών επιχειρήσεων, αλλάζουν την ισορροπία δυνάμεων στη διεθνή σκακιέρα και δίνουν στο διάστημα σημαντικό ρόλο στις συνολικές επιχειρησιακές δομές των κρατών. Ταυτόχρονα, ο συνεχώς αυξανόμενος ανταγωνισμός γύρω από τα αντιδορυφορικά όπλα και τις διαστημικές τεχνολογίες εγείρει έντονα ερωτήματα σχετικά με μια πιθανή μελλοντική σύγκρουση υπερδυνάμεων στο διάστημα, με έπαθλο την παγκόσμια κυριαρχία. Η παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία στοχεύει στη συνολική παρουσίαση της Ασφάλειας στο Διάστημα. Η ασφάλεια στο διάστημα περιλαμβάνει αντιδορυφορικά όπλα, διαστημικό καιρό και διαστημικά σκουπίδια. Αυτή είναι μια πτυχή της έννοιας της Διαστημικής Ασφάλειας και είναι ένας σχετικά πρόσφατος όρος τόσο για την ακαδημαϊκή όσο και για τη στρατιωτική κοινότητα. Η άλλη σχετίζεται με την παραδοσιακή μορφή της, την Ασφάλεια από το Διάστημα, την υποστήριξη που παρέχεται στη Γη με δορυφορικά μέσα. Τέλος, αναφέρεται η σημασία του Διαστήματος στις μελλοντικές μελέτες και στη Στρατηγική Διερεύνηση Προοπτικών.
It is now evident that space is not something distant, but is considered an integral part of both the Armed Forces and people's everyday lives. Space is characterized as one of the main factors shaping the balance of power on the international chessboard, while at the same time, it contributes decisively to the concepts of global and national security of states. Thus, beyond the classical side of the concept of Security from Space, due to the anti-satellite tests carried out by Great Powers such as the USA, Russia, China and India, the invisible side of Space Security that was in obscurity from the end of the Cold War until the beginning of the 21st century has also come to the fore. This Thesis aims to analyze all dimensions of the concept of Security and how it affects Space. As a new concept, there is no widely accepted definition of space security. Thus, special emphasis is placed on the concept of Security in Space, where the main threats to it are presented in detail, i.e. anti- satellite weapons, space junk and space weather, while the approaches of all states that have fully integrated this concept into their state arsenal (legal, institutional, technical) are analyzed. In the last chapter, this thesis analyze a strategic foresight implementation in Space.
... Therefore, digital platforms should engage in long-term planning and carefully assess their potential to adopt a super app strategy, taking into account their available internal resources [39], innovation and change capabilities [75], and competitive landscape [76]. Long-term planning includes foresight practices such as scenario planning to anticipate uncertain futures [77]. This facilitates a realistic assessment of whether digital platforms have the prerequisites and resources to pursue a super app strategy and whether they should actively pursue it. ...
Super apps allow users to access messaging, payments, e-commerce, deliveries, ridesharing, and many other services within the same app. While there are some very successful and dominant super apps in Asia such as WeChat, KakaoTalk, Alipay, or Grab, others, including Elon Musk with X (Twitter), are aiming to establish super apps in the U.S. and Europe. This explanatory study analyzes the super app phenomenon from a firm-level perspective. It provides preliminary insights on how digital platforms are reaching the super app status, and are evolving from single-purpose to multipurpose apps. Using data from 380 platforms in the mobility sector, a regression model is estimated to understand which platforms are capable of pursuing a super app strategy: young, agile, and risk-taking firms. I also discuss the case of Uber to illustrate the motivations and the various growth strategies that are incrementally paving the way to becoming a super app. Finally, testable propositions and a conceptual model are forwarded to stimulate future research on this timely topic.
... Literature suggests integrating CF as a continuous practice (Peter & Jarratt, 2015). It is recommended to preserve the changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., more continuity and structure). ...
Our study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID-19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness.
... As many internal and external players participate in the development of management concepts and processes, consultants have an impactful role being at the edge between knowledge creation and application [119,121]. It has even been indicated that many organizations focus solely on operational planning while external management consultants perform their strategic planning [122]. To broaden the scope of the consultants in the study sample, a sample of consultants from different consulting functions shall be included, as suggested by kakabadse et al. [121] which is an answer to the breadth of consulting services that can be observed in the market. ...
... Long-term development plans require consistent efforts over time. Leadership discontinuity can pose challenges to the execution of such plans (Peter & Jarratt, 2015). Changes in leadership can lead to shifts in developmental priorities, altering resource allocations and strategic goals (Tichy, 1982). ...
This research delves into the intricate relationship between interrupted presidential leadership and a country's progress and development. By examining a diverse range of factors including the nature of interruption, institutional strength, political polarization, public sentiment, and leadership continuity, this study presents a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted impacts that interrupted leadership can generate. Through a synthesis of existing literature, comparative case studies, and in-depth analyses, this research reveals that the outcomes of interrupted leadership are far from uniform. Positive impacts can arise from well-managed transitions, transparent succession plans, and alignment with national interests. Conversely, abrupt changes, weak institutions, and political divisions can magnify negative consequences. The research underscores the vital role of effective governance, transparent transitions, and policy continuity planning in mitigating adverse impacts. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need for tailored strategies in diverse contexts to harness the potential benefits and mitigate the challenges posed by interrupted presidential leadership. The implications of this research extend to policymakers, scholars, and citizens alike, guiding informed decisions, enriching academic discussions, and fostering active engagement in the governance processes that shape a nation's trajectory.
... A CoP can be seen also as a way to accelerate the formation of innovative crossorganizational units and to streamline innovation activities in large organizations (Pombo-Juárez et al., 2017). CoPs can be used for creating collaborative innovation hubs (Kirkman et al., 2013;Malik et al., 2020) and creating long-term strategic foresight hubs and activities (Peter & Jarratt, 2015). ...
More than thirty years after Lave and Wenger’s Situated Learning: legitimate peripheral participation (1991), the concepts of communities of practice and situated learning are widely used by academics and practitioners. In this symposium, we aim to revisit the past developments around CoP and situated learning and offer insights for future research. We will a) take stock of the use of the concept of CoP in management and organization studies since its introduction in 1991 and examine whether the concept is still relevant in the current historical conditions (Davide Nicolini and Paul Duguid) b) examine how the concept can be further expanded and elaborated (Etienne and Beverley Wenger-Trayner) and c) Examine new research opportunities that could arise from a dialogue between the study of COPs and future of work.
... Therefore, digital platforms should engage in long-term planning and carefully assess their potential to adopt a super app strategy, taking into account their available internal resources [39], innovation and change capabilities [75], and competitive landscape [76]. Long-term planning includes foresight practices such as scenario planning to anticipate uncertain futures [77]. This facilitates a realistic assessment of whether digital platforms have the prerequisites and resources to pursue a super app strategy and whether they should actively pursue it. ...
Here's the link to the published version:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25856
... Technology consists not only of tools, implements, and artifacts but also of entire networks of relationships that structure, limit, and enable social life. Hence, there is a connection between humans and technology affecting each other (Peter & Jarratt, 2015). The relationship between humans and technology was established and recognized in the literature (Hejase et al., 2016). ...
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of emotional intelligence (EI) on the relationship between strategic management of technology (SMT) and organizational performance (OP).
Design Methodology/Approach
Data were collected through a survey of 1,094 managerial level employees attached to banks in Sri Lanka and analyzed using structural equation modeling procedure with SmartPLS to test a priori-based conceptual model. The results supported the arguments on the positive impact of SMT on OP, and the moderating role of EI on the relationship between SMT and the OP.
Findings
This research reveals the positive effect of SMT on organizational performance.
Implications
The findings imply the importance of emotions of managerial level employees in implementing technology strategies to enhance organizational performance in highly volatile markets.
Originality/Values
The findings provide an important contribution to the practitioners with the importance of EI for the relationship between SMT and OP.
... Technological advancements as well as the volatility of customer needs cause companies to be uncertain about the external variables affecting product development [5]. To reduce this uncertainty in product innovation, it is particularly necessary to analyse and process the knowledge that already exists externally in the product environment. ...
Development and production of innovative products is the core business activity of manufacturing companies. During the development process, companies have to decide, which product aspects should be innovated. The identification of the most promising product aspects for innovation needs transparency about the holicity of all product aspects that could be alternated. Due to the increasing use of databased methods within innovation management, the required product model also needs be accessible by humans as well as machines. Therefore, a concept for the development of a semantic product model to support the innovation process consisting of three steps is presented.
... Weak signals are being identified, collected, and measured with the help of the strategic foresight process (Rohrbeck et al. 2007). Many authors underline the importance of the general involvement of management in any foresight process: their commitment and responsibility to investment in strategic foresight on the one hand, and on the other hand their participation in accordance with their capacity (Jarratt and Stiles 2010, Peter and Jarratt 2015, Rohrbeck 2011, Westley 1990). Highlighting the importance of involving stakeholders, such as employees, partners, customers, or any other actors in the close environment of the organisation, has been recognised by various authors (Berkhout and Hertin 2002, Duin and Graaf 2010, Hansen et al. 2015. ...
International Swiss banks are challenged more than ever. The fast-paced global environment forces them to develop new and innovative products, services, and processes to sustain in the long-term. Therefore, strategic foresight is important to understand the organisations’ customers, their evolving needs and changing behaviour, and in turn provides banks with the necessary analysis and knowledge about future customer needs, enabling them to take the right decisions to be prepared for future change. This paper investigates how the incorporation of strategic foresight in international Swiss banks is executed to enhance their innovation activity. Through an in-depth analysis of academic papers and three case studies based on twelve qualitative interviews with management representatives from the financial services industry, a new framework was developed. The framework of “enhanced innovation activity through collaborative foresight activities” is designed as an iterative process consisting of internal and external dimensions. Innovation activity can be enhanced while focusing on setting the right parameters throughout the organisation. The strategic foresight process enables practitioners in collecting the right information about future trends and customer needs, which supports innovative thinking and human involvement. Applying the framework reinforces banks in focusing on the decisive dimensions of the strategic foresight process and enhances innovation activity. Keywords: strategic foresight, innovation management, enhanced innovation activity framework, foresight research, Swiss banks
... For companies, during the product innovation process "sensing new technologies and trends" is a key success factor and a key obstacle at the same time [3]. The detection and interpretation of emerging information and indicators for promising innovation potentials for their products causes uncertainty [4]. The reduction of this uncertainty is possible via information acquisition and analysis, as 80% of all innovations are a recombination of already existing knowledge [5]. ...
Within the product innovation process, companies are required to design their product according to diverse external influence dimensions from the product environment. By the analysis of these influence dimensions, companies gain insight into the urgency or possibility to innovate their product accordingly. As the majority of data within the business context available is text data, there is a need to formulate a method that enables companies to evaluate the data relevant for the product innovation accordingly. As the manual evaluation of this data is not feasible due to the high data amount, especially for small and medium sized companies, a concept for an automated evaluation method is required. This concept uses approaches from the field of text mining and applies them to the innovation management in order to gain insight from diverse texts about innovation potentials. This concept includes the definition of a suitable preprocessing, a topic modeling approach for this use case and a collection of options for the topic exploration. The preprocessing defines how usually occurring text documents can be converted into a format that is manageable for the text mining approach. The topic modeling is based on a constrained TF-IDF- weighted Latent Dirichlet Allocation to identify preferably new and unique topics within the considered dataset. Afterwards, the identified topics can be explored in differentiated ways in order to gain a better insight into the product environment. The validation of this method on three sample datasets tests its limitations but indicates also the potential of an automated text analysis for innovation management.
... A CoP can be seen also as a way to accelerate the formation of innovative crossorganizational units and to streamline innovation activities in large organizations (Pombo-Juárez et al., 2017). CoPs can be used for creating collaborative innovation hubs (Kirkman et al., 2013;Malik et al., 2020) and creating long-term strategic foresight hubs and activities (Peter & Jarratt, 2015). ...
This paper provides a comprehensive, integrative conceptual review of work on communities of practice (CoPs), defined broadly as groups of people bound together by a common activity, shared expertise, a passion for a joint enterprise, and a desire to learn or improve their practice. We identify three divergent views on the intended purposes and expected effects of CoPs: as mechanisms for fostering learning and knowledge-sharing, as sources of innovation, and as mechanisms to defend interests and perpetuate control over expertise domains. We use these different lenses to make sense of the ways CoPs are conceptualized and to review scholarly work on this topic. We argue that current debate on the future of work and new methodological developments are challenging the received wisdom on CoPs and offer research opportunities and new conceptual combinations. We argue also that the interaction between the lenses and between CoP theory and adjacent literatures might result in new theory and conceptualizations.
... Further, researchers increasingly investigate whether and how their forecasts' accuracy and efficiency are, in fact, improving (Dhaliwal et al., 2012;Easterwood & Nutt, 1999;Liu & Natarajan, 2012). Currently, forecasts lack precision and cover a shorter horizon when business environment uncertainty increases (Peter & Jarratt, 2014;Vecchiato, 2012aVecchiato, , 2012b. Such an evolution of business forecasting generates a need for novel ways to develop forecasts, and one promising approach is to rely on digitalization and, more specifically, data analytics. ...
Data analytics is applied in various fields, including business performance forecasting, but companies struggle with its implementation. Following a cross-sectional field study approach, we make two contributions. First, we elaborate on the central role played by the head controller in generating trust in analytics solutions and thus, making the project successful. Second, we identify three patterns in the way companies plan, implement, and then use data analytics in the context of business performance forecasting. The two successful patterns are the ones that start with a limited but tangible objective (either in term of information precision, or rapidity of processing) that can be expended in a second time.
... Так, в материалах Technological Forecasting and Social Change, резюмирующих активность исследований и компаний по состоянию на 2015 г., отмечаются возможности компании по созданию ценности и преимущества первого хода (first mover advantage) с использованием различных методов корпоративного форсайта [Vecchiato, 2015a], включая технологические дорожные карты и ИТ-инструменты [Rohrbeck, Thom, Arnold, 2015b]. Для этого, как утверждают исследователи, необходимы глубокая интеграция форсайта в управленческую рутину компании [Burt, Mackay, Perchard, 2015;Ruff, 2015;Weber, Sailer, Katzy, 2015], включая вовлечение менеджмента среднего звена [Darkow, 2015], и ориентация на долгосрочные горизонты планирования [Peter, Jarratt, 2015], даже с применением футурологии [Hines, Gold, 2015]. ...
This article presents the results of a comprehensive research of foreign and Russian studies in the field of corporate foresight, identifies their key research questions, conducts a structural analysis of cases, gives a classification and summarizes characteristics of domestic projects using foresight methods since the 90s of the past century. The search for an effective tool to ensure strategic development and sustainable competitiveness of the company has been the subject of lively academic discussion since the middle of the last century. However, the research landscape is still highly fragmented and is characterized by the presence of several large gaps associated with an integrated approach to the study of the company, taking into account the action of global trends, incentives and patterns of behavior of key stakeholders and the formation of recommendations for the company’s management. One of the platforms uniting various scientific schools is foresight, a tool for shaping the vision of the future, which has been actively used by global corporations for over 70 years and has won wide recognition in the Russian community in recent years. It is shown that the current stage of Russian corporate foresights is in a state of rapid development and in many respects begins to correspond to world trends. The factors influencing the demand of Russian companies for foresight are determined. The author's forecast of possible trends for the development of foresight as a tool for strategic management of the company for the next 10 years has been made.
... For instance, by analyzing technological, market, and competitor information, organizations can exploit existing competencies [101] and explore radical innovations to ensure long-term survival [102]. However, firms often struggle to apply foresight in practice [22], [103]. ...
Maritime container shipping (MCS) firms represent the backbone of worldwide supply chains. Due to the emergence of global trends and disruptions, MCS firms increasingly face an uncertain environment. Consequently, MCS firms must develop dynamic capabilities to enable the reconfiguration of organizational resources for building resilience in a constantly changing business ecosystem. To create adequate dynamic capabilities, MCS firms need to anticipate the future of their macro environment through advanced foresight techniques. Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis, this study systematically examines scenarios for MCS firms’ macro environment. Twelve projections for the MCS industry were systematically created and were then assessed by 51 maritime experts. The resulting three distinct scenarios deliver valuable insights for MCS firms’ executives, whereas the blockchains and drones technology will have already increased efficiency in the short-term scenario “picking the low-hanging fruit,” other technological disruptions will only affect the industry in the medium-term scenario “experiencing an era of dichotomy.” In the long-term scenario “overcoming the obstacles of the generational shift,” MCS firms will experience a transfer toward alternative fuel powered and autonomously driven vessels. Offering detailed scenarios for the future MCS macro environment, this study represents a guide for decision-makers on how to create dynamic capabilities in MCS firms to build resilience. Moreover, the results revealed differences in the experts’ assessments due to their characteristics. Therefore, the study contributes to the academic focus on in-depth diversity analysis in the Delphi methodology and emphasizes the relevance of incorporating multiple stakeholders and panelists in future planning.
... The importance of multidisciplinarity in achieving results is discussed, as well as the relevance of the collective factor in creating the meaning of information (Lesca, 2003;Sarpong & Maclean, 2014). In addition, an organizational approach enables the observation of indirect effects such as strategic alignment (Kumar et al., 2001;Battistella, 2014) and increased organizational learning (Rohrbeck & Schwartz, 2013;Battistella, 2014;Peter & Jarratt, 2015). ...
This research proposes an investigation into the reasons for low adherence for foresight processes in organizations. Studies involving the relevance of foresight processes have become increasingly frequent, driven by an environment of increasing volatility, uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity. Despite the importance of the topic, which seeks to enable organizations to anticipate threats and opportunities from the environment through methods, there is still little adherence to these practices, which justifies the purpose of this investigation. To achieve the proposed objective, a questionnaire was structured. Then, it was applied via electronic survey, allowing the observation of the effects of the illusion of control and individual foresight activities on the perceived value of formal foresight processes in organizations. The data were analyzed based on structural equations modeling with estimation through Partial Least Square (PLS). The sample was composed of 185 executives from the financial and technological sectors, and a reduction to the perceived value of foresight processes was identified, as a result of the illusion of control and individual practices of these activities. These results contribute to the understanding of the low adherence of foresight processes, from the perspective of cognitive biases attributed to the decision-maker. KEYWORDS Foresight, Individual Foresight, Illusion of Control, Perceived Value 18 2
... Previous studies have extensively researched the role of foresight and scenario building in improving strategic planning (Kononiuk & Glinska, 2015;Peter & Jarratt, 2013;Ruff, 2014) and understanding technology development (Vishnevskiy et al., 2014;Gershman et al., 2016;Förster, 2014 This study aims to conceptualize a technology development framework supported by an analysis of the intertwined and causal relationship among the system's components. Most previous studies on technology development are based on statistical relationships between influencing parameters, limiting the conclusions to previously observed patterns instead of the system's underlying causal relationships. ...
Planning for the future plays a pivotal role in a competitive business world. Scenario analysis is a popular tool for exploring plausible futures and planning. However, the practice of scenario planning is often qualitative, unstructured, and time-consuming. We propose a structured technology development framework by categorizing the qualitative variables impacting technology development and identifying their causal relationships. We then use causal loops and expert opinions and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for scenario planning and futures studies. We present a case study in the communications industry to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework.
With the impact of global warming and overpopulation, depleting natural resources accelerated humanity's quest for a new solution. Thanks to its abundant minerals and deposits and a vast area to accommodate billions, space has stood out as a brilliant choice to save the Blue Planet. Its asteroids filled with precious metals, planets suitable for future colony settlements, and strategic vantage points for national security have all made space an attractive ecosystem. Initially considered a part of the defence industry, this ecosystem soon grew into an economy. It now has its own manufacturing, mining, tourism, health and technology industries and services, attracting new entrepreneurs and investors. It is acknowledged to be the playground of the world billionaires, with futuristic business tycoons as the most prominent players. However, despite its growing popularity, business and economics literature lacks sufficient empirical study on the space economy, while engineering studies constitute the majority. A possible reason is that its financial potential is not common knowledge. Therefore, if this economy is ever to expand, it is imperative to create awareness first. Creating a space economy awareness will enable government agencies to receive more significant budgets for space projects. Besides, the greater the space economy awareness is, the more domestic start-ups will emerge to work for public-private partnership opportunities. As the financial resources increase, space can be exploited more quickly for precious metals and minerals. Countries with more raw material and precious metal resources will inevitably become both industrially and economically strong, thus boosting their public welfare. Nevertheless, awareness of the space economy can only be achieved if its dynamics are properly understood. Therefore, this study aims to fill the gap in business and economics literature by defining the dynamics of space economy awareness. In so doing, it will provide an understanding and thus make it possible to develop better strategies promoting this future economy. In line with the research objectives, data from 811 participants were collected through the survey method. The study focused on the relationship between an awareness of this new economy and such potentially influential factors as national values, altruism, technological readiness, future foresight, and opinion leaders. Structural equation modelling was used for the analysis. Results point to the impact of technological readiness and national values on space economy awareness, suggesting a link between the national and space policies.
Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels in der Schweiz verstärken sich, wie die jüngsten Hitzewellen und verheerenden Hochwasser deutlich zeigen. Angesichts der erwarteten Verschärfung des Problems stehen Gemeinden und Regionen vor grossen Herausforderungen. Die neue Plattform «Integrierte Klimaanpassung» (IKA) unterstützt sie dabei, durch partizipative Prozesse wissenschaftsbasierte und wirksame Massnahmen zur Klimaanpassung umzusetzen, die von allen Beteiligten getragen werden.
Urban worn-out textures, due to their ancient and historically valuable physical structures, exhibit low adaptability to urban developments and advancements. Tehran, as a city with a rich historical background, also boasts considerable worn-out textures. Due to economic, geographical, and political conditions, a large population resides in these textures. In this regard, the present research aims to investigate the livability status of residents, identify key indicators, and design scenarios in the worn-out textures of Tehran city. This paper proposes a new approach to MicMac that promotes driving forces to scenarios. The results indicate that the livability of residents in worn-out textures of Tehran city, particularly in central regions, is in undesirable conditions. Furthermore, the analysis of the MicMac matrix showed that housing prices, residents' income, investment , and an increase in economic activities, as well as the role of urban management, are driving forces that have a vital impact on the livability of residents in worn-out textures. These driving forces have depicted three scenarios for the livability of worn-out textures in Tehran city until the year 2032.
Ante la incertidumbre ambiental, las firmas han buscado desarrollar capacidades de previsión, adaptación, aprendizaje e innovación, y enfoques como la prospectiva estratégica, la agilidad estratégica y la teoría de las capacidades dinámicas han procurado responder a cómo hacer frente a tales condiciones contextuales.
En estudios previos se han analizado las principales prácticas propuestas, desde la prospectiva y la agilidad estratégica, para hacer frente a contextos de incertidumbre y se ha identificado qué actividades centrales para el ejercicio prospectivo y de agilidad, estarían comprendidas entre aquellas que componen las capacidades dinámicas de sensing (identificar y evaluar oportunidades), seizing (movilizar recursos para aprovecharlas) y reconfiguring (renovación continua) (Teece, 2007). Sin embargo, estudios que vinculan estos tres enfoques los relacionan sólo conceptualmente o de forma parcial, y trabajos enfocados en la medición de las capacidades dinámicas no han incorporado los aportes de la prospectiva y agilidad estratégica.
El presente trabajo se propone integrar las principales prácticas de prospectiva y agilidad estratégica orientadas a hacer frente a la incertidumbre ambiental, al marco más amplio de las capacidades dinámicas y presentar una metodología de evaluación del uso y priorización, por parte de las firmas, de las capacidades dinámicas de sensing, seizing y reconfiguring frente a tales condiciones.
Para ello, se vinculan conceptualmente las prácticas de prospectiva y agilidad estratégica a las tres capacidades dinámicas citadas y se construye un cuestionario conformado por afirmaciones que reflejan prácticas aplicables por las firmas en contextos de incertidumbre, a ser evaluadas en términos de su implementación y relevancia. Para la futura aplicación de la metodología de evaluación, se define como unidad de análisis a empresas de industrias de alta tecnología donde son especialmente importantes las capacidades dinámicas, dada la velocidad de cambio del entorno y las demandas constantes de innovación.
Introduction: The complexity and multidimensionality of urban problems and issues, along with the rapid growth of technology and the globalization of production patterns, have increased, and the instability of conditions and the possibility of various futures have made it difficult to make decisions and plan regarding urban issues. In such a situation, sustainable urban regeneration with a forward-looking approach can be a solution to the problems of inefficient urban tissues and especially historical tissues. Data and Method: In terms of practical purpose, the current research is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by applying a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Research data has been collected using the survey method and cross-effects matrix. The exploratory analysis of the matrix of cross effects has been done using Micmac software. Results: Based on the diagram and dispersion of the variables on the map, the variables of this research are divided into five categories of influential input variables, two-way variables of risk and goal, and dependent variables and independent variables. Based on the intensity of influence and direct and indirect influence of the variables, finally, 9 key drivers were identified as the main factors of recreating the historical context of Kerman city, which are the two-faceted and influential variables. Conclusion: The key drivers of recreating the historical context of Kerman city are: preserving the originality of the design and effect, creating an integrated management of the historical context, reusing the building and modernizing the uses, functional diversity and creating vitality, creating legal and legal instruments, people's participation. and the private sector in the process of regeneration, paying subsidies and bank facilities and creating tax exemptions, a comprehensive model of planning and management and the role of culture and cultural industries in regeneration.
This study aims to identify the role of strategic foresight with its dimensions (capabilities of environmental surveying, capabilities of strategic choice, and capabilities of integration) in Entrepreneurial performance in its dimensions (creativity, risk, and proactive). As the study problem was determined by diagnosing the level of interest in its variables in the field. The importance of the study lies in the need to develop security and service work in the leadership of the police of Karbala Governorate because of its pivotal role in social, service and security life as it is one of the most vital pillars. The researcher adopted the descriptive analytical method in presenting, analyzing and interpreting study information. The study was conducted in the leadership of the police of Karbala province, and the study population reached (497) individuals from the departments and divisional directors of the leadership (officers). The data was collected by means of a questionnaire designed to rely on international standards after it was adapted to suit the Iraqi environment and subjected to the necessary validity and stability tests, which consisted of (34) paragraphs covering the two study variables. The questionnaire was distributed to a sample of the study community, according to (220) questionnaire forms, and the retrieved questionnaire was (220) forms, i.e. a rate of retrieval (100%), and the valid forms for analysis were (220) forms. Two main hypotheses have been tested, from which a number of sub-hypotheses are branched to test the extent of the strategic foresight's impact on entrepreneurial performance at the level of the researched organization. The simple correlation coefficient, the natural distribution of data, and the application programs (Amos.V.20) (Spss.V, 23) necessary for analyzing and processing the data. The study reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which are: Strategic foresight is an effective means of removing ambiguity through Analyzing the internal and external environment in a way that leads to obtaining integrated information that contributes to raising the performance and the intellectual, administrative and security level in the leadership of the police of Karbala Governorate in achieving the pioneering performance during the future period. As it has achieved fewer results than the other dimensions of strategic foresight and by increasing communication with individuals and the community in general, and taking advantage of modern technologies, and emphasizing comprehensive surveys of the internal and external environment and reconsideration The tools and tools used in the environmental survey in line with its future aspirati ons to ensure achieving or reaching a Entrepreneurial performance
Foresight projects can have different goals and applications, and take various forms and scales. Within the European Foresight Platform framework, monitoring covers thousands of studies. The prevailing number of foresight use scenario approach, and the higher the horizon the higher the share of scenarios in FL studies. Types of scenarios and development procedures are considered in the context of three schools of scenario development, Shell approach, PMT school and La Prospective. Foresight studies of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development are presented as cases of FL research’s results implementation in policy-and decision-making. It’s noted the efforts of the COVID-19 Foresight project team of the Center in the area of coronavirus pandemic scenario development. Also, artificial intelligence application prospects for forward-looking studies are highlighted in the context of The Kyiv School of mathematicians and system analytics activity.
Plant disease vectors play a critical role in agricultural productivity and ecosystem health. This comprehensive review explores the intricate nature of these vectors and their role in transmitting major plant diseases, including those of viral, bacterial, and fungal origins. It delves into the mechanisms underlying disease transmission, and the significant factors that influence vector efficiency. The socioeconomic and ecological impacts of these vectors are highlighted, with emphasis on crop yield reductions and ecological imbalances. Traditional and emerging vector management methods, such as chemical control, biological control, cultural practices, genetic Review Article Jaisval et al.; Int. 2519 engineering, and precision agriculture are examined. The review also addresses the challenges inherent to vector management, including resistance development, non-target effects, environmental factors, and socioeconomic barriers. Future perspectives are offered, emphasizing the need for sustainable strategies, exploitation of emerging technologies, enhanced surveillance, community involvement, policy support, and preparation for forthcoming challenges due to climate change, land-use alterations, and global trade. This extensive review presents a critical resource for stakeholders in plant disease vector management, guiding future research directions and policy-making.
The innovation process of manufacturing companies is characterized by uncertainty caused by various external influences. Today, companies are not able to handle the amount of data available for the identification of changes within their products’ environment although, this data can give valuable indications for the urgency or possibility to innovate their products. Approaches from environmental scanning, text mining and semantic networks have the potential to address individual aspects of that problem separately but there is no method for monitoring the environment holistically. The presented framework closes this gap by combining methods from the three areas that complement each other for the identification of potential fields of innovation for existing products. The aim of this paper is to enable companies to process text data from external data sources automatically and therefore generate insights for the detection of potential fields of innovation within the environment of their products. For this purpose, the product is described as a semantic network. Further, relevant external influences, i.e. customers and competing companies or respective external data sources for their description are identified. A text mining approach extracts the topics covered by these data sources and expands the product specific semantic network by linking them based on their co-occurrence with each other and the product description. Finally, the potential fields of innovation are identified and evaluated in terms of external relevance and the company’s competence.
In as early as the 1980s, air traffic flow management actions (ATFM), as supplementary strategies to match the demand for air travel with the available resource capacities, have been widely discussed and evaluated based on its implementation and probable trade-offs between conflicting and diverse interests of stakeholders in the commercial aviation industry. Among the ATFM actions—ground holding, airborne holding, speed controlling, and rerouting—rerouting is found to be a viable recourse particularly when flights are already at its en-route phase, where the presumed and more favored based on safety considerations, holding of flights on the ground, becomes completely infeasible. Some research works put forward relevant solution approaches including deterministic and stochastic mathematical programming models, machine learning algorithms, and simulation models. Despite the relevance and validity demonstrated by such models in testbed environments, even on a large-scale basis, these models failed to sufficiently capture the individual and collective interests of stakeholders altogether. Considering that the decision process in the air transportation system is taken part by stakeholders (i.e., airlines, air traffic control), previous research works tend to satisfy only one stakeholder by incorporating one or more of its interests (e.g., cost minimization, reduction of distance traveled). Such a case does not take full regard to how a stakeholder-specific solution might affect another stakeholder’s preference. Therefore, this paper aims to address the post-departure aircraft rerouting problem by proposing a multiple stakeholder-based target-oriented robust-optimization (MS-TORO) approach that incorporates the individual interests of stakeholders. A hypothetical case study is conducted to illustrate the proposed model. It can be noted that a significant shift of route preference occurs as goals are aligned in terms of the individual interests of the stakeholders and that of their collective goal. The results of this work can provide practical insights to stakeholders in the course of decision-making in a particular area of the air transportation domain.
Interações entre o foresight e a gestão do conhecimento: proposta de uma agenda de pesquisa
Prospectiva estratégica para el diseño de política pública
de fomento de la responsabilidad social empresarial y sostenibilidad de
sectores productivos de la región Cundiboyacense en Colombia a 2035” se
hace un ejercicio prospectivo y de carácter regional sobre los determinantes
de la responsabilidad social empresarial (rse) y la sostenibilidad empresarial,
en un escenario mundial caracterizado por una sociedad y unos consumidores
que exigen cambios en las políticas ambientales y el establecimiento
de una economía circular. El estudio, con la aplicación de las metodologías de
ábaco de Régnier y la matriz de importancia y gobernabilidad, encontró
como factores relevantes el aprendizaje organizacional, la transparencia
empresarial, la economía circular, la ética en rse, la rse como impulsor
de nuevos modelos de negocio, la influencia de los grupos de interés y las
alianzas intersectoriales.
In the previous chapter, the core concepts of strategic management, as well as influencing factors that challenge the assumption that standardized strategic management is universally valid, have been presented. The influence of behavior on strategic management and, thus, ultimately, the impact of culture on strategic management are worth further analysis to receive a better understanding and enable multinational corporations to conduct efficient strategic management. To investigate the influence of cultural values on strategic management and its processes, this chapter is aimed at providing a summary of findings on the influence of culture on strategic management with a focus on long-term planning. It starts with a conceptualization of culture by defining culture and discussing different levels of culture as well as the Hofstede framework. It is then zooming into the cultural sensitivity of strategic management and providing an overview of the contemporary understanding of cultural influences before the section is concluded. The chapter is then narrowing down on the long-term planning area of the strategic management to introduce underlying concepts, methods, and tools before discussing potential causes of cultural sensitivity in the long-term planning process. The tool of scenario planning has been picked as the most suitable long-term planning tool for further analysis.
This chapter presents the methodology. To answer the research question, the developed hypotheses will be empirically tested by applying a wide variety of methods and processes. A well-founded empirical analysis needs matching data and statistical methods, as well as a thorough overview of the methodology of applied research, which will be outlined in this chapter. First, the research design including survey and data collection approach is presented, and then the variables and their operationalization introduced, before, in the last part, the data analysis methods, are outlined. Data was collected with the means of an online survey addressed at a unique sample of management consultants working for a leading management consultancy. The consultants serve as proxy for executive leaders. Consultants have been asked for preferences in the strategic management process and their own cultural orientation by using the CVSCALE as proposed by Yoo et al. (Journal of International Consumer Marketing 23:193–210, 2011). The dependent variable, the strategic management long-term planning tool scenario planning, was operationalized in a set of sub-constructs to reflect the different process stages of the scenario planning process. As both variable construct tiers contain latent variables that are not directly observable, multi-item psychometric scales have been used. The development of the final scales covered multiple steps, including theoretical analysis and collection of items from existing research, followed by selection and adaptation of a pre-final set, which was then tested with a closed item sorting approach with nine management consultants experienced in scenario planning and consequent statistical methods. A thoughtful process including multiple methods based on multivariate analytical techniques has been applied in this research, whereby hypotheses testing was conducted through hierarchical regressions. To avoid the multiple comparisons problem, Holm’s Sequential Bonferroni Procedure has been applied.
The two objectives of this study are to investigate how Finnish dairy farmers cope with uncertainties of their external business environment and how they apply foresight methods in their strategic management, e.g., in planning for expansion. The research data consist of 135 survey responses from larger than average dairy farmers across Finland. To reveal the role of future thinking and long-term management in farmers’ goal setting, we first carried out an explorative factor analysis (EFA) for the management related claims. The identified latent factors were managerial, planning, and cautious approach. Significant differences in managerial approach were found with respect to turnover and age of farmers. Planning approach correlated with farmer’s time horizon. In the binary logistic regression for predicting the growth orientation farmer’s planning approach, age and length of time horizon were the only significant predictors. Many farmers are particularly cautious when it comes to planning the future of milk production. Strengthening farmers’ foresight skills with training may help farmers to cope with volatile business environments.
Resumo: Estudos a respeito do futuro e das necessidades de adaptação das organizações vêm se tornando mais recorrentes devido ao ambiente cada vez mais incerto, volátil e ambíguo que se impõe atualmente. O foresight se assemelha a uma série de outros termos utilizados na literatura fazendo referência à questão de monitoramento do ambiente buscando antecipação a eventos futuros visando prevenir ameaças e aproveitar oportunidades. Este artigo objetiva diferenciar práticas individual e organizacional do foresight, suas etapas e objetivos, buscando explorar como ocorrem no contexto brasileiro. Para tal, foi realizada uma revisão de literatura seguida de uma survey. Os resultados demonstram que a maioria dos respondentes pratica atividades relativas ao foresight individual, especialmente em nível hierárquico mais elevado. Também é possível observar variações entre as atividades realizadas, e impressões diversas dos respondentes acerca dos resultados efetivos do foresight. Palavras-chave: Foresight. Foresight Individual. Foresight Organizacional. Introdução Apesar das diferentes "roupagens" que vêm adquirindo ao longo dos anos (PORTER et al., 2004; KUOSA, 2011), os conceitos de foresight já são recorrentes na literatura acadêmica relacionada à estratégia organizacional, com crescente interesse de pesquisa (IDEN et al., 2017). Trata-se de uma prática que teve sua importância elevada à medida que o ambiente externo das organizações passava por transformações que causaram impactos diretos nos resultados das empresas (CHOUDHURY e SAMPLER, 1997). Em dado momento suscitou-se a importância das organizações trabalharem de forma proativa, buscando antecipar-se às oportunidades e ameaças provenientes do ambiente organizacional (BURT e WRIGHT, 2006). A esse olhar para o ambiente externo, atenção e coleta de informações, com sistematização de processos para antecipação das organizações ao futuro, deu-se o nome de monitoramento do ambiente. Com o passar dos anos, diferentes métodos para operacionalização do monitoramento foram propostos e diferentes nomenclaturas-inteligência estratégica (TARAPANOFF, 2002; LESCA, 2003), planejamento de cenários (SCHOEMAKER, 1995), forecast (COATES, 1999), gestão de sinais fracos (ANSOFF, 1975), sistemas de detecção precoce (SCHWARTZ, 2005), foresight tecnológico (BORCH e RASMUSSEN, 2002)-foram atribuídas às práticas que, de forma geral, buscam identificar, coletar, organizar, interpretar e, idealmente, usar as informações coletadas com a finalidade de aumentar a vantagem competitiva, o alinhamento estratégico, a aprendizagem e a inovação organizacional. Sardar (2010) discute essas nomenclaturas, incluindo ainda elementos como futurologia, futurismo e estudos do futuro. Para Sarpong, Eyres e Batsakis, (2019), não há consenso sobre o que os autores chamam "dimensionalidade do locus" em atribuir a fonte ou o nível de previsão na prática. Algumas explicações dão prioridade ontológica às ações individuais de empreendedores e líderes. Esses estudos ofereceram insights sobre como o foresight, sendo uma característica elementar da 'mente de negócios competente' (TSOUKAS e SHEPHERD, 2004), capacita executivos a transgredir fronteiras estabelecidas para aproveitar oportunidades negligenciadas por seus pares (CHIA, 2008). Por outro lado, um número crescente de estudiosos argumenta que o foresight é um processo coletivo de construção de sentido e, portanto, deve ser teorizado como uma capacidade distribuída (LESCA, 2003, SCHOEMAKER; DAY, 2006; ERIKSSON e WEBER, 2008; BOOTZ, 2010; DARKOW, 2015). Estudos também mostram que ações de indivíduos e grupos (TAPINOS e PYPER, 2018) têm potencial para induzir (ou impedir) o foresight (CUNHA et al. 2006; SARPONG e MACLEAN, 2014). Essa multiplicidade de conceitos abriu espaço para que diferentes abordagens fossem atribuídas a essas práticas, dificultando o enquadramento teórico da temática (ROHRBECK,
Since banks are competing in challenging and dynamic market environments, an anticipatory system generating futures-relevant knowledge is of primordial importance for an effective bank strategy. The objective of this research is to investigate how corporate foresight and competitive intelligence, considered as parts of an anticipatory system, create knowledge. Our main contribution lies in arriving at a better understanding of these processes in the mainstream of knowledge creation grounded in the SECI model. To this end, we followed a longitudinal case-study methodology for more than eight months within a leading bank in Morocco. The findings show that while the competitive intelligence unit focuses more on commercial and competitor intelligence targeting hence other banks market strategies, the corporate foresight unit tries to identify the bank market weak signals and major trends in the banking sector. Knowledge creation is mainly triggered in the social interaction context in the competitive intelligence unit, while the externalization phase involving interacting Bas is critical to knowledge creation in the corporate foresight unit. The results also confirm the presence of a black hole strategy problem and a lack of coordination between competitive intelligence and corporate foresight processes, thus highlighting the need for dynamic integrated anticipatory systems.
All managers scan, but they often do so too passively. They keep their antennae up and wait to receive outside signals. Managers are continually exposed to a wealth of data ranging from the fuzzy impression of trade rumors to harder evidence from sales reports, trend studies, and technology forecasts. Although those using that passive approach might feel in tune with the periphery, that might be a delusion. Because most of the data come from familiar or traditional sources, that mode of scanning tends to reinforce - rather than challenge-prevailing beliefs. This article argues for a more vigilant scanning approach.
The aim of this paper is to organise decision-making models and methods into one coherent matrix, using complexity (high to low) and time pressure (high to low) dimensions as relevant axes. Eight case vignettes are used to demonstrate the fit of four decision-making models and four decision making methods within high-low complexity and high-low time pressure. The arguments and the vignettes suggest that a particular decision-making model or method becomes an appropriate tool for strategic decision-makers under varying complexity and time pressure. The appropriate model or method would change when the characteristics of the environment change. Decision-making models and methods can be systematically assessed with the proposed framework.
The past decade of organizational research has moved from an investigation of organizational static to an investigation of organizational dynamics, much of it focused on strategy and its formulation and implementation. This research is an attempt to shed light on the business owner managers and Chief Executive Officers' (CEOs) perception of the importance of strategic management process in Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK. The data gathered from a sample of 132 CEOs of high tech firms and a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods were employed for data analysis. In this research it has been found that firms which employ strategic management techniques, whether formal or informal, exhibit enhanced levels of success in formulation and implementation of business strategies than those firms which do not employ such procedures. Employing strategic management process in SMEs significantly helps in solving organizational problems, and reducing organizational conflicts. It significantly impacts on employees' satisfaction and changing organizational culture.
The FTA community relies on a set of disciplines and methods, which try to better understand and shape the future from different methodological perspectives. Whilst the community has grown since the first edition of the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), there is still little dialogue and exchange between those applying quantitative and those applying qualitative methods.The FTA events have, since the beginning, provided an avenue to debate methodological aspects and this paper summarises and furthers the discussion developed during the 2011 edition, building on the debates at the conference and between members of the conference Scientific Committee, to which the authors of this paper belong. In particular this paper describes the methodological state of the field through a tripartite taxonomy of increasing levels of qualitative and quantitative integration. It shows how significant progress has been made for simpler forms of combinations but not for more sophisticated (and perhaps more promising) ones. Following that, it suggests that an epistemological divide, common to the social sciences as a whole, combined with cultural differences and misconceptions within the FTA community are amongst the factors undermining further methodological integration. The paper concludes by suggesting some steps, combining research and practice, to overcome such barriers.
Foresight can be seen as social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.
Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) would argue, a conscious attention to the organization's vision and visionary scenarios in the environment. Having promoted foresight on six continents for a wide range of governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations, we have developed lessons on the design and set-up of foresight efforts, their use and follow-through. Lessons include: Scenarios using ‘aspirational futures’ should include expectable, challenging, and visionary alternatives; beware of and understand ‘allergic reactions’ to foresight given some individuals', particularly leaders', psychological preferences; foresight is most effectively done by and for top leadership but foresight for units or regions of the organization can also be successful; to get the most value, it is important to err on the side of boldness and vision in developing scenarios; foresight efforts create a ‘safe space’ for exploring challenging situations; associations as collections of companies or professionals have unique foresight needs including elected leadership that rotates every year, and the need to communicate the results of foresight efforts to their members effectively; government and corporations have more similarities than differences in foresight, but companies have more resources and can move quickly to develop and use the foresight.
We describe case study research and explain its value for developing theory and informing practice. While recognizing the complementary nature of many research methods, we stress the benefits of case studies for understanding situations of uncertainty, instability, uniqueness, and value conflict. We introduce the concept of phronesis — the analysis of what actions are practical and rational in a specific context — and indicate the value of case studies for developing, and reflecting on, professional knowledge. Examples of case study research in managerial accounting, auditing, and financial accounting illustrate the strengths of case studies for theory development and their potential for generating new knowledge. We conclude by disputing common misconceptions about case study research and suggesting how barriers to case study research may be overcome, which we believe is an important step in making accounting research more relevant.
This Essai argues for the distinctive position of Strategy-as-Practice research outside the immediate family of Strategy Process. Strategy-as-Practice's fascination with the phenomenon of strategy itself takes it beyond traditional Process perspectives. Relying on the 'sociological eye', Strategy-as-Practice treats strategy like any other practice in society, capable of being studied from many different angles. Under the four themes of praxis, practices, practitioners and the profession of strategy as an institutional field, the Essai demonstrates the potential range of research topics, performance notions and methodologies within Strategy-as-Practice. It concludes by proposing five implications of the sociological eye for the conduct of Strategy-as-Practice research, highlighting particularly social connections and relationships, embeddedness, irony, problematized notions of performance and a respect for continuity.
Futures research can support decisions concerning innovation and strategy issues. To encourage companies to use the results of futures studies, the futures researcher has to be aware of how those companies (clients) have organised their innovation and strategy processes. It is our position that futures researchers should balance the way they conduct futures research with the way innovation and strategy processes are organised and carried out. For example, in an organisation with a hierarchical way of building a strategy, a ‘democratic’ and interactive approach to futures research will probably not be appreciated. This makes it interesting and worthwhile to find out what futures research and innovation and strategy have in common, and on which points they relate. This will help futures researchers improve their work and make sure that their work has an impact on decisions concerning innovation and strategy.
Market growth plays a central role in virtually all strategic marketing models developed in the past 30 years. Although marketing
scholars seem implicitly to assume that marketing efforts contribute in some way to market growth, market growth per se remains
a conceptual black box in marketing. Using new developments in endogenous growth theory, this article explores the link between
marketing actions and market growth. In particular, the authors develop a conceptual model arguing that the effect of endogenous
actions on market growth is mediated by knowledge creation, matching, and diffusion. Propositions are proposed to guide future
research. The authors discuss the implications for marketing strategy at both business discipline and public policy levels.
Environmental analysis is a critical part of the strategic management planning process. The SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) framework is proposed by many as an analytical tool which should be used to categorize significant environmental factors both internal and external to the organization.SWOT analysis has been praised for its simplicity and practicality. As a framework it has been widely adopted but, generally, its use has been accepted uncritically. It is timely to reappraise its value as a strategic management tool.If used simplistically, the SWOT framework is a ‘naive’ tool which may lead to strategic errors. More detailed analysis using complementary frameworks can overcome SWOT's inherent shortfalls.SWOT should not be viewed as a static analytical tool with emphasis solely on its output. It should be used as a dynamic part of the management and business development process.Despite impressions often created by many authors on the subject who portray strategic planning as systematic, sequential and rational, the realities of planning reveal that strategy formulation is more likely to be somewhat more incremental, non-rational and irregular; more ‘organic’ than ‘mechanic’. Use of the SWOT framework tends to be most closely associated with the ‘mechanistic’ approach and suffers as a consequence of this association. SWOT analysis does not have to be mechanistic; adoption of the approach proposed here with emphasis on its process values as well as its output is strongly recommended.
Prior research suggests that equity joint ventures (JVs) are particularly effective vehicles for accessing complex technology. Different schools of thought have emphasized different reasons why joint ventures might support greater knowledge transfer than "bare" license agreements: incentive alignment, organizational embeddedness, and enhanced administrative controls. We probe and refine these theoretical perspectives, drawing out implications of the different theories for the extent and speed of alliance-related knowledge transfer, as well as for knowledge "leakage" in areas not directly related to alliance activities. Using a proprietary data set derived from regulatory filings with the Japanese government we test these implications in our empirical analysis of U.S.-Japan agreements. The picture that emerges from the analysis is one of particularly intense but contained knowledge transfer in equity joint ventures, relative to bare license agreements: knowledge transfers directly related to the alliance activity are enhanced in the JV, and the speed of integration into the Japanese firm's subsequent innovations also increases. In marked contrast, leakage of unrelated technology is significantly reduced. These findings suggest that administrative structures that reduce technology leakage are a key feature of the equity joint venture, a result that is inconsistent with a "pure" knowledge-based perspective on alliances.
How to achieve a sustained competitive advantage that ensures long-term survival is a major concern for managers everywhere, but even more so for those in smaller firms, which may have more difficulty enduring under hostile environmental conditions than larger organizations. Because innovation is a key driver of sustained competitive advantage and sustainable business growth, the management of innovation is a central concern for these firms. While research in innovation management has provided many insights into specific aspects of innovation, the encompassing problems confronting general managers, especially managers of small and medium-size firms, have been overlooked in the development of innovation management tools. As a case study in the value of innovation management techniques and tools in the development of a collaborative innovation network, this paper analyzes the use of innovation management techniques and tools by a leading Spanish elevator manufacturer's research unit in implementing its open innovation strategy. This empirical study will help managers to understand the role of innovation management tools in structuring an open innovation strategy based on collaboration and technology transfer.
Environmental analysis is a critical part of the strategic management planning process. The SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) framework is proposed by many as an analytical tool which should be used to categorize significant environmental factors both internal and external to the organization.
SWOT analysis has been praised for its simplicity and practicality. As a framework it has been widely adopted but, generally, its use has been accepted uncritically. It is timely to reappraise its value as a strategic management tool.
If used simplistically, the SWOT framework is a ‘naive’ tool which may lead to strategic errors. More detailed analysis using complementary frameworks can overcome SWOT's inherent shortfalls.
SWOT should not be viewed as a static analytical tool with emphasis solely on its output. It should be used as a dynamic part of the management and business development process.
Despite impressions often created by many authors on the subject who portray strategic planning as systematic, sequential and rational, the realities of planning reveal that strategy formulation is more likely to be somewhat more incremental, non-rational and irregular; more ‘organic’ than ‘mechanic’. Use of the SWOT framework tends to be most closely associated with the ‘mechanistic’ approach and suffers as a consequence of this association. SWOT analysis does not have to be mechanistic; adoption of the approach proposed here with emphasis on its process values as well as its output is strongly recommended.
This paper resolves the long-standing debate between the two dominant process schools in strategy. Analysis of the planning practices of 656 firms shows that formal planning and incrementalism both form part of ‘good’ strategic planning, especially in unstable environments. Environment neither moderates the need for formal planning nor the direction of the planning/performance relationship, but does moderate firm planning capabilities and planning flexibility. In unstable environments planning capabilities are far better developed and formal plans more amenable to change. The planning/performance relationship is, however, moderated by planning duration: at least four years of formal planning are required before external performance associations are noted. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?).
The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles.
The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Have you ever wondered why even large companies fail when faced with changes in their environment? Would you be surprised to learn that the average life expectancy of a Fortune 500 company is below 50 years? This book presents findings from 19 case studies in multinational companies such as Siemens, Volkwagen, General Electric, Philips and Deutsche Telekom. René Rohrbeck proposes a Maturity Model to assess how prepared a company is to respond to external (disruptive) change. He uses data from 107 interviews with board members, corporate strategists, innovation managers, and corporate foresight professionals to present and discuss best practices. Using illustrations to show the complex interaction of corporate foresight with other units such as innovation and strategic management, René Rohrbeck provides the reader with rich insights on how to make an organization agile and reactive towards change. For scholars this book proposes multiple hypotheses and frameworks for future research.
"Both the model and practice examples contained within make the book a worthwhile reference for companies seeking to enhance their ability to succeed in a changing environment." Peter Möckel and Heinrich Arnold of Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.
"His maturity model and the identified best practices contribute to both strategic management and innovation management theory and will help pave the way toward a better understanding of how companies can build "dynamic capabilities". Hans Georg Gemünden of Technische Universität Berlin.
"The thesis of Rene´ Rohrbeck on Corporate Foresight will help managers create an understanding about its breadth and depth; they will learn to know what to expect from their investments and to judge the effectiveness of their Corporate Foresight practices. Martin G. Möhrle of University of Bremen.
"With this book, the author opens new perspectives, contributes valuable empirical evidence, and generates important new insights, which will take research and management practice in Corporate Foresight to a new level." Ulrich Krystek of Technische Universität Berlin.
- This paper describes the process of inducting theory using case studies from specifying the research questions to reaching closure. Some features of the process, such as problem definition and construct validation, are similar to hypothesis-testing research. Others, such as within-case analysis and replication logic, are unique to the inductive, case-oriented process. Overall, the process described here is highly iterative and tightly linked to data. This research approach is especially appropriate in new topic areas. The resultant theory is often novel, testable, and empirically valid. Finally, framebreaking insights, the tests of good theory (e.g., parsimony, logical coherence), and convincing grounding in the evidence are the key criteria for evaluating this type of research.
This paper resolves the long-standing debate between the two dominant process schools in strategy. Analysis of the planning practices of 656 firms shows that formal planning and incrementalism both form part of 'good' strategic planning, especially in unstable environments. Environment neither moderates the need for formal planning nor the direction of the planning/performance relationship, bur does moderate firm planning capabilities and planning flexibility. In unstable environments planning capabilities are far better developed and formal plans more amenable to change. The planning/performance relationship is, however, moderated by planning duration: at least four years of formal planning are required before external performance associations are noted. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
How do you create and sustain a profitable strategy? Many approaches have focused managers' attention inward, urging them to build a unique set of corporate resources and capabilities. In practice, however, identifying and developing core competence too often becomes a feel-good exercise that no one fails. Collis and Montgomery, of Harvard Business School, explain how a company's resources drive its performance in a dynamic competitive environment, and they offer a framework that moves strategic thinking forward in two ways. The resource-based view of the firm comprises a pragmatic and rigorous set of market tests to determine whether a company's resources are truly valuable enough to serve as the basis for strategy and integrates that market view with earlier insights about competition and industry structure. Where a company chooses to play will determine its profitability as much as its resources do. The authors spell out in clear managerial terms why some competitors are more profitable than others, how to put the idea of core competence into practice, and how to develop diversification strategies that make sense. To illustrate the power of resource-based strategies, the authors provide many examples of organizations - including Disney, Cooper, Sharp, and Newell - that have been able to use corporate resources to establish and maintain competitive advantage at the business-unit level and also to benefit from the attractiveness of the markets in which they compete.
Virtually all managers in consumer businesses recognize major social, economic, and technological trends. But many do not consider the profound ways in which trends especially those that seem unrelated to their core markets influence consumers' aspirations, attitudes, and behaviors. As a result, companies may be ceding to rivals an opportunity to transform the industry. For instance, the impact of the digital revolution on consumers' daily lives is hardly a revelation. But it may be Less obvious that heavy digital users tend to focus on short-term goals, demand immediate gratification, and expect to multi-task. That insight, the authors argue, is as important for a company that sells lipstick as it is for one that sells smartphones. The authors present a process for identifying the trends that could reshape a business and three strategies for leveraging trends to create new value propositions: Infuse aspects of the trend into the product category to augment traditional offerings, as Coach did with its lower-priced Poppy handbags. Combine aspects of the trend with attributes of the category to produce offerings that transcend it, as Nike did with its Nike+ sports kit and web service. Or counteract negative effects of the trend with new products and services that reaffirm the category's values, as iToys did with its ME2 video game, which encourages children to be physically active.
Organizations must increasingly view their competency development challenges in terms of the need to be agile. This paper defines the notion of agile capability and deconstructs it into its constituent competencies. These competencies are depicted in the form of an agile capability 'stack'- a layered set of the competencies that collectively constitute agile capability. This deconstruction is carried out by instantiating the concept within one industry, the technology industry. However, the concept of agile capability is widely applicable. Our objective is to place the notion of agile capability firmly in organizational competency development discourse, and help its conscious cultivation.
Three models of strategy that are implicit in the literature are described—linear, adaptive, and interpretive. Their similarity to Boulding's (1956) hierarchical levels of system complexity is noted. The strategy construct is multifaceted, and it has evolved to a level of complexity almost matching that of organizations themselves.
A vital question incorporated under the fundamental corporate strategy of technology-based innovation is that of ensuring that R&D would most effectively exploit technological change in the development of new or enhanced products and services. The literature contains a profusion of models, methods and techniques which guide R&D project selection. Three approaches are particularly important: one based on mathematical programming, one where project selection is understood as a process rationally embedded in the corporate behavioural, organisational, and informational structure, and one which requires projects to be strategically consistent-andintegrated. To assist the bounded-rational manager faced with this embarras de choix, the authors propose a heuristic framework which respects both the constraint imposed by decision costs and the principle that to optimise the use of knowledge as many as possible of the results from the literature should enter into the firm's decision-information shortlist. Exploiting this framework, the manager can readily compare the different approaches under the normative methodology of testing the empirical relevance of their assumptions against a core model description of the firm's 'real world' constructed according to the methodology of scientific realism. Once an approach which is methodologically best (most realistic) is found, the decision process can be refined upon further considerations of bounded rationality to determine a model, method, or technique under this approach which is simultaneously knowledge-optimal and operationally-satisficed.
In the middle fifties many American firms were confronted with disturbing symptoms which could not be readily remedied by available management techniques and which had no precedent in recent experience. For some firms the market demand began to level off and could not be restimulated by even the most energetic marketing and promotion. For others the demand began to decline in the face of substitute products offered by new technologies. Still others saw their traditional markets invaded by vigorous foreign competitors [1].
This paper argues that organizational communication research, and in particular a perspective that focuses on narrative, can contribute in important ways to understanding the practices of strategy. Narrative is believed to be critical to sensemaking in organizations, and multiple levels and forms of narrative are inherent to strategic practices. For example, narrative can be found in the micro-stories told by managers and others as they interact and go about their daily work, in the formalized techniques for strategy-making whether or not the techniques are explicitly story-based, in the accounts people give of their work as strategy practitioners, and in the artefacts produced by strategizing activity. After exploring applications of narrative approaches to strategy praxis, practices, practitioners and text, we review two concepts that might serve to integrate micro and macro levels of analysis. Overall, narrative is seen as a way of giving meaning to the practice that emerges from sensemaking activities, of constituting an overall sense of direction or purpose, of refocusing organizational identity, and of enabling and constraining the ongoing activities of actors.
Developing successful technological innovations is essential for creating and sustaining a firm's competitive advantage. This paper analyses the internal complexity that characterises technological innovation in firms. The innovation capability of a firm depends closely on its intellectual and/or organisational knowledge assets and on its ability to deploy these assets. This paper goes beyond the direct relationships between human and technological knowledge assets and product innovation, proposing a moderating role of innovation culture on these relationships. Using a questionnaire to survey 251 Spanish high and medium-high technological manufacturing firms, multiple regression models were developed. After analysing the relationship between human capital and product innovation developed by firms, the results reveal the existence of the moderating role of innovation culture in a knowledge-based product innovation model.
In recent years, accelerated by the economic and financial crisis, complex global issues have moved to the forefront of policy-making. These grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation. For example, when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. This paper investigates ways in which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
Strategic discontinuities and disruptions usually call for changes in business models. But, over time, efficient firms naturally evolve business models of increasing stability - and therefore rigidity. Resolving this contradiction can be made easier by developing three core meta-capabilities to make an organization more agile: strategic sensitivity, leadership unity and resource fluidity. This article reviews the underlying determinants of these capabilities, based on detailed research undertaken in a dozen companies who were re-conceiving their business models - among others, Nokia, easyGroup, HP, SAP and Kone are used as examples. We propose a repertoire of concrete leadership actions enabling the meta-capabilities needed to accelerate the renewal and transformation of business models. To organize our argument we borrow the three main dimensions of the strategic agility framework presented in our earlier work, and develop corresponding vectors of leadership actions, each of which can enhance a firm's ability to renew its business models.
This paper outlines two leadership strategies to support organizational learning through networks of practice (NOPs). An in-depth case study in a development organization reveals that network leaders cope with a learning tension between management involvement and emergent learning processes by enacting two strategies: brokering and buffering (B&B), or conducting and controlling (C&C). The latter strategy implies a one-sided emphasis on institutionalization, whereas a B&B strategy implies mediating and shielding the network from too much management intervention. The B&B strategy appears more useful for achieving multilevel organizational learning through NOPs; this study thereby contributes to theory about learning and NOPs.
This paper resolves the long-standing debate between the two dominant process schools in strategy. Analysis of the planning practices of 656 firms shows that formal planning and incrementalism both form part of ‘good’ strategic planning, especially in unstable environments. Environment neither moderates the need for formal planning nor the direction of the planning/performance relationship, but does moderate firm planning capabilities and planning flexibility. In unstable environments planning capabilities are far better developed and formal plans more amenable to change. The planning/performance relationship is, however, moderated by planning duration: at least four years of formal planning are required before external performance associations are noted. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
This is a book and I do not have a copy to share. It is available at Amazon. There is a later edition (4th) also available: Research methods in busienss studies.
The scenario literature has limited discussion on the process of identifying the systemic conditions that could create disruption and/or discontinuity. This paper focuses on the integration of Christensen's theory of disruption and system analysis with the scenario methodology to develop a framework that provides an understanding of the underlying systemic conditions that create disruption and/or discontinuity. The framework is developed from a recent scenario case study to show the process of integrating these three theories and approaches. The case study reveals the systemic conditions inherent in the UK energy industry and how these conditions may portend discontinuity.
This article describes a project in corporate practice. A large European corporation conducted a project called ‘Future Markets-Radar’ to identify future market opportunities that lie beyond their present attention. The top executives, who were deeply involved in the project, used a systematic process based on the author's Five Futures Glasses and a comprehensive semantic model of objects of thought, called the Eltville Model and a set of appropriate tools to achieve the goals of the project. The results laid the foundation for future success in future markets, solidified and enriched the corporate strategy and increased the future competence of the people involved. This article proposes a model of the corporate disciplines and goals of future management, a definition of what a future market is, key questions on future markets, a process for early recognition of future markets as well as a summary of the project's results and benefits.
H. Igor Ansoff was the prominent reference in the corporate strategy field, especially during the 1960s and 1970s. His bestseller, Corporate Strategy, was the first to give a conceptual framework and a tool box to top managers, consultants and scholars. Recognized as the real pioneer of the field, he was seen by Henry Mintzberg as also the leader of the strategic planning school. The aim of this short article is to show that he was also the father of strategic management and a leader who gave an impressive set of concepts and ideas to promote an integrative and flexible view of strategic planning, strategic foresight, organizational structures and processes.
Three models of strategy that are implicit in the literature are described-linear, adaptive, and interpretive. Their similarity to Boulding's (1956) hierarchical levels of system complexity is noted. The strategy construct is multifaceted, and it has evolved to a level of complexity almost matching that of organizations themselves.
An enduring problem confronting design science is the question of how to distil design principles and propositions in contexts where only limited evidence has accrued directly in connection with the design problem at hand. This article illustrates how researchers can address this challenge by recourse to well-established bodies of basic theory and research in the wider social and organizational sciences that suggest robust design options. Adopting this approach, we draw upon the insights of social identity theory, self/social categorization theory and the Five Factor Model of human personality from the field of personality and social psychology to distil a series of propositions to inform the design of scenario planning interventions, centred on team composition and the facilitation process. In so doing, our article exemplifies the benefits of adopting a pragmatic science approach to the design of processes that promote organizational change and development, thus adding to the growing design science movement.
Academic research in applied disciplines such as construction engineering and management (CEM) has the dual mission of simultaneously contributing to the solution of practical problems and creating theoretical and conceptual knowledge. To do so, appropriate research approaches are needed. However, extant literature in the field has paid little attention to this issue and research methods used have been almost entirely either quantitative surveys or case studies. In this paper, action research (AR) is proposed as an answer to this knowledge gap. AR aims at building and testing theory within the context of solving an immediate practical problem in a real setting. The paper describes the underlying philosophy and application procedure of AR and highlights its strengths and weaknesses. Then, the applicability of the method to CEM is illustrated through a case study of improving access to information to support planning and decision making in a construction owner organization through designing and implementing a data warehouse. The findings indicate that AR is a reliable, structured, and rigorous research approach that is very useful for conducting applied research in construction and enabling academia to influence and improve construction industry practices. It can also effectively help to improve collaboration between academic researchers and industry practitioners in research and development projects.
Now nearing its 60th printing in English and translated into nineteen languages, Michael E. Porter's Competitive Strategy has transformed the theory, practice, and teaching of business strategy throughout the world. Electrifying in its simplicity -- like all great breakthroughs -- Porter's analysis of industries captures the complexity of industry competition in five underlying forces. Porter introduces one of the most powerful competitive tools yet developed: his three generic strategies -- lowest cost, differentiation, and focus -- which bring structure to the task of strategic positioning. He shows how competitive advantage can be defined in terms of relative cost and relative prices, thus linking it directly to profitability, and presents a whole new perspective on how profit is created and divided. In the almost two decades since publication, Porter's framework for predicting competitor behavior has transformed the way in which companies look at their rivals and has given rise to the new discipline of competitor assessment.
More than a million managers in both large and small companies, investment analysts, consultants, students, and scholars throughout the world have internalized Porter's ideas and applied them to assess industries, understand competitors,, and choose competitive positions. The ideas in the book address the underlying fundamentals of competition in a way that is independent of the specifics of the ways companies go about competing.
Competitive Strategy has filled a void in management thinking. It provides an enduring foundation and grounding point on which all subsequent work can be built. By bringing a disciplined structure to the question of how firms achieve superior profitability, Porter's rich frameworks and deep insights comprise a sophisticated view of competition unsurpassed in the last quarter-century.
Book Description
Publication Date: June 1, 1998 | ISBN-10: 0684841487 | ISBN-13: 978-0684841489 | Edition: 1
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This article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. It starts by discussing the need for strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of strategic foresight for renewal. The author describes two roles of scenarios in supporting these processes — scenarios as mental models, and through providing a well-understood methodology that permits exploration of the future. Three key case studies from different fields, such as financial services and pharmaceuticals, enhance the description of the methods.