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Variation in the Distribution of Four Cacti Species Due to Climate Change in Chihuahua, Mexico

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This study is about four cacti species in the state of Chihuahua, (Coryphantha macromeris, Mammillaria lasiacantha, Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii). Geographic distribution was inferred with MaxEnt. Projection was estimated under three scenarios simulated from IPCC (A2, B1 and A1B) and four periods (2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080) with 19 climatic variables. MaxEnt projects a species decrease in 2020 under scenario A2, increasing in the following years. In 2080 all species, except E. dasyacanthus, will occupy a larger area than their current one. Scenario B1 projected for 2050 a decrease for all species, and in 2080 all species except E. dasyacanthus will increase their area. With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from 2020 to 2050. E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020 to 2080. M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080. Some species will remain stable on their areas despite climate changes, and other species may be affected under the conditions of the A1B scenario. It is important to continue with studies which give a broader perspective about the consequences of climate change, thus enabling decision-making about resource management.
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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 390-402; doi:10.3390/ijerph110100390
International Journal of
Environmental Research and
Public Health
ISSN 1660-4601
www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
Article
Variation in the Distribution of Four Cacti Species Due to
Climate Change in Chihuahua, Mexico
Leonor Cortes
1,
*, Irma Domínguez
1
, Toutcha Lebgue
1
, Oscar Viramontes
2
, Alicia Melgoza
1
,
Carmelo Pinedo
1
and Javier Camarillo
1
1
Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1,
Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico; E-Mails: evelina_p7@hotmail.com (I.D.);
tlebgue@uach.mx (T.L.); amelgoza@uach.mx (A.M.); cpinedo@uach.mx (C.P.);
jcamarillo@uach.mx (J.C.)
2
Facultad de Contaduría y Administración, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Circuito
Universitario #1, Nuevo Campus Universitario, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico;
E-Mail: oviramon@uach.mx
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: lcortes@uach.mx;
Tel./Fax: +52-614-434-0303.
Received: 6 November 2013; in revised form: 26 November 2013 / Accepted: 27 November 2013 /
Published: 24 December 2013
Abstract: This study is about four cacti species in the state of Chihuahua,
(Coryphantha macromeris, Mammillaria lasiacantha, Echinocereus dasyacanthus and
Ferocactus wislizenii). Geographic distribution was inferred with MaxEnt. Projection was
estimated under three scenarios simulated from IPCC (A2, B1 and A1B) and four periods
(2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080) with 19 climatic variables. MaxEnt projects a species
decrease in 2020 under scenario A2, increasing in the following years. In 2080 all species,
except E. dasyacanthus, will occupy a larger area than their current one. Scenario B1
projected for 2050 a decrease for all species, and in 2080 all species except
E. dasyacanthus will increase their area. With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from
2020 to 2050. E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020
to 2080. M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase
13% from 2020 to 2080. Some species will remain stable on their areas despite climate
changes, and other species may be affected under the conditions of the A1B scenario. It is
important to continue with studies which give a broader perspective about the
consequences of climate change, thus enabling decision-making about resource management.
OPEN ACCESS
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 391
Keywords: MaxEnt; modelation; cacti; climatic change; Coryphantha macromeris;
Mammillaria lasiacantha; Echinocereus dasyacanthus; Ferocactus wislizenii; distribution
1. Introduction
In the last decades, planet Earth has been warming up and it is clear that human activities have
affected the weather and the balance of the planet’s natural cycles. [1] Weather phenomena depend on
a number of factors that interact in complex ways, in contrast to the traditional notion, which is the set
of variables that impact directly the way the atmosphere restructures itself with a series of interactions
that occur with the sea and continents in different time and spatial frames. The costs of global warming
arise from high temperatures produced by continuous damage to the environment, caused by sudden
events in terms of climatic catastrophes [2]. The inherent problem is that there is considerable
uncertainty associated to these two types of events [3]. Since global warming is a very complex
problem and its signs are sometimes difficult to see, there is without a doubt a high level of uncertainty
among population about the existence of global warming.
Mexico is among the 70 countries with greater Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GGE) per capita,
because it produces 0.96 tonnes of carbon dioxide every year that go into the atmosphere; 30.5% of the
emissions are directly involved in activities of soil usage change and deforestation [4]. In this respect,
animal and vegetal species, as yet endangered because of human activities, will be also endangered
because of Climatic Change (CC).
Due to its geographic location and complex landscape Mexico is one of the countries with greater
species diversity. Besides, many of the species in this country are endemic [5]. In the state of
Chihuahua half of the ecosystems are arid and semi-arid zones. The potential of these zones has to be
evaluated for a proper resource management, since these ecosystems are fragile and have a
slow restoration [6].
The Chihuahua desert is, biologically speaking, one of the richest in the World. It covers an
approximate area of 391,046 sq. mi., and approximately 30% of cacti species grow in this desert [5].
Cacti are important because of their endemism and their wide distribution in the American continent [7].
The cacti family, known collectively as cactus or cacti, is one of the most typical groups of succulents
and most of them have spines [8]. Out of the total that exist in Mexico, about 35% have a risk status,
and the Northwest region of the country houses the higher diversity and endemism, unfortunately this
diversity is threatened due to man’s activities [6]. Cacti may be exploited in different ways, including
as hedges and as cattle food, however their most common usage is as ornamental plants and as part of
the human diet.
Tellez-Valdez and Davila-Aranda say that ecological niche modeling allows for the analysis of
factors associated with different populations of a particular species with different degrees of impact [9].
The information that was analyzed by algorithms enables the projection in the geographical level of the
potential area covered by the species. The results of the spatial studies may provide critical information
about the diversity present on certain geographic areas and they can be used for different purposes,
such as assessing of the current state of plant species conservation or prioritizing conservation areas [10].
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 392
There are general factors that affect species distribution: temperature, water availability and
topography. More particularly they can be described as soil types, evapotranspiration, light quality or
days with temperatures below the freezing point, among others [11]. It is important to know that niche
modeling represents an approximation of the species’ ecological niche in the dimensions in the
environmental crusts used [12].
There are modeling efforts where the MaxEnt program was applied, including those by Carroll who
evaluated and modeled with the relations that exist between weather and vegetation variables,
concluding that MaxEnt has a good performance in contrast with 15 alternative methods in a wide taxa
variety in different regions. The variables measured were temperature and precipitation, provided for
the three simulations of the future climate during two time periods (2011 to 2040 and 2061 to 2090) [13].
Colombo and Joly [14] worked on a zone in the Atlantic Forest. The data about species distribution
were taken from Oliveira and Scudeller and Martins [15,16], who compared more than 100 lists of tree
species, and 38 were selected for which there were not enough data about their current distribution.
The selected variables were slope, diurnal temperature range, average annual precipitation and vapor
pressure (annual averages 1960–1990). Regarding to future scenario projection, CC crusts were used
for the next 50 years (IPCC 2001) and the same data for topographical issues, taking into account the
little possibility of topographical changes in the next 50 years. It was concluded that all the MaxEnt
projection models on the current area covered by the 38 species, present a high significance level
(binomial test: two ratios, p < 0.05 for all species). Based on the above, the objective of the research
reported herein was to evaluate the impact of the climate change on the geographical distribution of
four cacti species found in the state of Chihuahua.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Description of the Area of Study
The distribution areas for the selected species are found in the state of Chihuahua. The state is
formed by three major regions: the Sierra, Plateau and Desert, which occur from west to east in the
form of big stripes. This results in the greatly contrasting weather and geographical conditions that
give the State its better known images, its great deserts, mountains, canyons and forests [5]. The
Chihuahua desert is, biologically speaking, one of the richest in the World. This territory is mostly flat,
though it has low sierras across, most of them north to south [17]. The desert weather in this region is
very dry, yearly rainfall is less than 0.54 in. (350 mm); average temperatures go from 55.4 °F (13 °C)
in January to 96.8 °F (36 °C) in June, reaching 122 °F (50 °C) in the hottest days of the year, with
frosts in winter. Snow also appears in this region, though less frequently.
2.2. Selected Species
Four cacti species with distribution on Chihuahua Desert were selected. These species were selected
from collected previously registers, they are: Coryphantha macromeris, Mammillaria lasiacantha,
Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii [8].
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 393
2.3. Modeling and Simulation
Taking into account the literature research of methodologies used already, the process to be
followed for the species’ distribution modeling and simulation is described in the following
paragraphs. It is necessary to collect bio-climatic crusts (these crusts were downloaded from
WorldClim, with a resolution of 1 Km., for four periods of time 2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080, under
three different scenarios A2, B1 y A1B [18]) and georefencered data. Georeferenced data are saved on
spreadsheets such as MS Excel files in UTM format. The next step is to convert or save these data in
formats that can be read with modeling niche programs. This task is made through the Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) such as ArcMap with the option “Conversion Tools”, which allows the
crusts to be saved in ASCII format so they can be read by MaxEnt [19]. Finally the MaxEnt program is
run, taking geolocalities and climatic crusts data, it generates an area map of species’ potential
location, and these files can be seen in GIS (ArcMap).
3. Results and Discussion
The data presented in Table 1 show the results from MaxEnt modeling. It is observed how the four
cacti species will be located on scenario A2 (Figures 1, 2, 3 and 4), with a decrease in relation to the
potential area by the year 2020. This decrease can be taken as non-significant for the
Coryphantha macromeris and Mammillaria lasiacantha species because in the years 2050 and 2080
they have a major increase in their potential area that in the case of Coryphantha macromeris is larger
than it is currently.
Table 1. Current and future Potential Areas of the species in km
2
.
Scenario A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B
Coryphantha macromeris Mammillaria lasiacantha
2000 121,643 ND ND 177,557 ND ND
2020 101,611 126,127 107,183 148,620 175,365 180,743
2050 129,173 100,073 78,228 173,681 170,489 123,352
2080 135,566 112,298 138,631 179,172 174,472 157,051
Echinocereus dasyacanthus Ferocactus wislizenii
2000 134,720 ND ND 85,531 ND ND
2020 131,951 147,397 128,736 86,285 79,520 67,551
2050 130,401 137,911 130,518 86,883 65,355 80,185
2080 127,423 136,181 33,789 90,957 75,627 78,144
Note: ND: Data non available for these scenarios.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 394
Figure 1. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Coryphantha macromeris considering
a liberal A2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2000
121,643 km
2
Year 2020
101,611 km
2
Year 2050
129,173 km
2
Year 2080
135,566 km
2
Figure 2. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Mamillaria lasiacantha considering a
liberal A2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2000
177,555 km
2
Year 2020
148,620 km
2
Year 2050
173,681 km
2
Year 2080
179,172 km
2
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 395
Figure 3. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Echinocereus dasyacanthus
considering a liberal A2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2000
134,720 km
2
Year 2020
131,951 km
2
Year 2050
130,401 km
2
Year 2080
127,423 km
2
Figure 4. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Ferocactus wislizenii considering
a liberal A2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2000
85,531 km
2
Year 2020
86,284 km
2
Year 2050
86,883 km
2
Year 2080
90,957 km
2
Both species, Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii, present a decrease in their
areas in the year 2050, unlike Echinocereus dasyacanthus, and the Ferocactus wislizenii species will
increase its area in 2080, to larger than its current area.
The study showed about the variable contribution percentage of the variables that temperature has a
greater influence in species distribution. The variables were: 10 (Average temperature of the hotter
quadrimester) more significant for Coryphantha macromeris; variable 1 (Average annual temperature)
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 396
for Mammillaria lasiacantha; variable 8 (Average temperature of the rainiest quadrimester) for
Echinocereus dasyacanthus and variable 7 (Annual tolerance range) for Ferocactus wislizenii. Taking
into account that climate change causes an increase in the planet’s temperatures and being the
temperature variables those with a greater influence on these cacti species, it is reasonable to say that
the tolerance range for these species is wide since MaxEnt did not indicate a noticeable decrease about
the species’ potential distribution area.
The results estimated for scenario B1 are similar to scenario A2 (Figures 5, 6, 7 and 8); all species
except Echinocereus dasyacanthus show a decrease from the year 2020 to the year 2050 and later in
the year 2080 an increase in their distribution area. In the case of Echinocereus dasyacanthus the
decrease in its potential distribution area is constant in the three time periods.
Figure 5. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Coryphantha macromeris considering
a liberal B2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2020
126,127 km
2
Year 2050
100,073 km
2
Year 2080
112,298 km
2
Figure 6. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Mamillaria lasiacantha considering a
liberal B1 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2020
175,365 km
2
Year 2050
170,489 km
2
Year 2080
174,472 km
2
Figure 7. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Echinocereus dasyacanthus
considering a liberal B1 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2020
147,397 km
2
Year 2050
137,911 km
2
Year 2080
136,181 km
2
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 397
Figure 8. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Ferocactus wislizenii considering
a liberal B1 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2020
79,520 km
2
Year 2050
65,355 km
2
Year 2080
75,627 km
2
In spite of scenario B1 being about a reduction in the use of materials, a cleaner technology and
a more efficient resource usage including global solutions to environmental sustainability, we can
observe a difference about the species’ total distribution area for both scenarios. An important
observation concerning the B1 scenario is that in the four cases the distribution area is smaller from
year 2080 to 2020, where Coryphantha macromeris will decrease in 10.96%, Mammillaria lasiacantha
in 0.5%, Echinocereus dasyacanthus in 7.6% and Ferocactus wislizenii in 4.89%.
The MaxEnt model shows an overview of the species spatial conditions, it is an approximation to
reality that serves as starting point decision making in species conservation. Even though in the results
we can see a resistance of cacti to CC, it is important to take into account other important factors such
as soil usage or species trafficking that place them in risk.
The most important results were projected by MaxEnt for the scenario A1B (Figures 9, 10, 11 and 12).
For Coryphantha macromeris it shows a decrease of 27% from the year 2020 to 2050, but the area will
increase in 2080 to 86.14 sq. mi. which represents an increase of 22% from the projection for 2020.
Mammillaria lasiacantha decreases from 2020 to 2050 and increases in 2080, being left with
a distribution area 13% smaller than in 2020. Echinocereus dasyacanthus presented a decrease in the
three time periods in scenario A2 as well as in scenario B1, this shows it as the only constant species in
both scenarios, however for scenario A1B it will have a slight increase of 1.38% by 2050 and similar
to the previous scenarios it will decrease, in this case 73% smaller than in 2020. Finally
Ferocactus wislizenii increases in 15% from 2020 to 2050 and for 2080 it decreases 2.5%.
Figure 9. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Coryphantha macromeris considering
a liberal A1B temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2020
107,183 km
2
Year 2050
78,228 km
2
Year 2080
138,631 km
2
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 398
Figure 10. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Mamillaria lasiacantha considering
a liberal A1B temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2020
180,743 km
2
Year 2050
123,352 km
2
Year 2080
157,051 km
2
Figure 11. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Echinocereus dasyacanthus
considering a liberal A1B temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2020
128,736 km
2
Year 2050
130,518 km
2
Year 2080
33,789 km
2
Figure 12. Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Ferocactus wislizenii considering a
liberal A1B temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Year 2020
67,551 km
2
Year 2050
78,228 km
2
Year 2080
78,144 km
2
The description given by IPCC for the A1B scenario is made as part of the A1 scenario where it is
supposed that economic growth is fast, with an accelerated population growth that peaks in the
twenty-first century and decreases afterwards; a world where there is a quick introduction of new and
efficient technologies, especially in A1B which would have a balance of all energy sources.
The following Figures 13–16 show the behavior of the four species on the IPCC different scenarios
and time periods.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 399
Figure 13. Coryphantha macromeris dispersal area on the different scenarios (A2, B1
and A1B) in km
2
.
Figure 14. Mammillaria lasiacantha dispersal area on the different scenarios
(A2, B1 and A1B) in km
2
.
Figure 15. Echinocereus dasyacanthus dispersal area on the different scenarios (A2, B1
and A1B) in km
2
.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 400
Figure 16. Ferocactus wislizenii dispersal area on the different scenarios (A2, B1 and A1B) in km
2
.
4. Conclusions
The results show stability regarding the present and future distribution of cacti species under
scenarios A2 and B1, and the most significant changes were for scenario A1B. In the first scenario A2,
the species Coryphantha macromeris decreases 16.46% in the first period of time from 2000 to 2020,
but for the following periods it increases 25.04% from 2020 to 2080. In scenario B1 it decreases
20.65% from the year 2020 to 2050, ending in 2080 with 10.88% more. Finally this species in the
scenario A1B presents a decrease of 27.01% in its distribution area from 2020 to 2050 and it has
an increase of 43.57% by 2080. The species Mammillaria lasiacantha presents a decrease of 16.29%
in the period 2000–2020 for the case of the first scenario A2; however both in the period of 2020–2050
and 2050–2080 it presents an area increase of 14.42% and 3.06% respectively. In the case of scenario
B1 the species has a decrease for the first period but for the following years it increases, projecting
a loss of only 0.5% from 2020 to 2080. In the third scenario the results of the distribution area present
like to the previous one a decrease in the first period from 2020 to 2050 of 31.75% and it repeats the
same pattern increasing 21.45% in the second period from 2050 to 2080. The third species
Echinocereus dasyacanthus presents in the first scenario A1, a decrease of 5.41% from 2000 to 2080.
The behavior of this species in the scenario B1 is the same as in the previous scenario with a decrease
from 2020 to 2080, being in this case of 7.60%. In the following scenario A1B this species shows
an increase in its area of 1.36% in the first period 2020–2050, but the decrease in the second period
2050-2080 is significant, with 74.11% of its potential distribution area. Finally, the species
Ferocactus wislizenii presents an increase of 5.96% from 2000 to 2080 in the first scenario A2.
The scenario B1 presents a decrease of 17.81% in the first period 2020–2050 and it increases 13.58% in
the final period 2050–2080. The scenario A2B for this species starts with an increase of 17.81% in the
first period 2020–2050 and it decreases 2.54% in the final period 2050–2080.
Although cacti distribution was not affected significantly by climate change, we should continue
research to know the state of other species in Mexico. It is also important to take into account other
factors such as changes in soil usage that affect the species distribution directly, decreasing
their distribution.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11 401
Since damage can be done silently, slowly and many times continuously; at first sight the alteration
is not evident. MaxEnt allows for the diagnosis of the present and/or future to envision possible
solutions to preserve these species. It is necessary to analyze the effects that climate change may have
on the different species distribution areas.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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© 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
... Species distribution is remarkably visible in the models produced (the species areas of occurrence coincide with the areas of suitability for the present). In a study by Cort es et al. (2014), models for endemic cacti from the Chihuahua Desert (Mexico), Coryphantha macromeris Lem., Mammillaria lasiacantha Engelm., Echinocereus dasyacanthus Engelm. and Ferocactus wislizeni Britton & Rose suggest a decrease in suitability of their distribution area until 2020. ...
... and Ferocactus wislizeni Britton & Rose suggest a decrease in suitability of their distribution area until 2020. However, the projections for 2080 show an expansion of areas of suitability, except for E. dasyacanthus, where a reduction in distribution is expected by 2080 (Cort es et al. 2014). These results are very different to what we found for the Cactaceae of the Brazilian Caatinga, as the species studied in Mexico are plants from desertic areas adapted to extreme temperatures (up to 55°C) and low precipitation (Cort es et al. 2014), whilst Brazilian species have an evolutionary history isolated from the Chihuahuan species, and are less tolerant of extreme climates. ...
... However, the projections for 2080 show an expansion of areas of suitability, except for E. dasyacanthus, where a reduction in distribution is expected by 2080 (Cort es et al. 2014). These results are very different to what we found for the Cactaceae of the Brazilian Caatinga, as the species studied in Mexico are plants from desertic areas adapted to extreme temperatures (up to 55°C) and low precipitation (Cort es et al. 2014), whilst Brazilian species have an evolutionary history isolated from the Chihuahuan species, and are less tolerant of extreme climates. It is important to note that no studies on thermal and hydric stress have been carried out to evaluate the tolerance levels of Brazilian cacti. ...
Article
Climate change, together with human activities, impacts on natural and human systems on all conti- nents and poses a major threat to biodiversity, especially in environments with a high rate of endemism and where species are profoundly adapted to specific environmental conditions, as is the case of the seasonally dry tropical forests, noticeably the Caatinga, an exclusively Brazilian biome. The objective of this study was to build spatial niche models of five species of Cactaceae (Arrojadoa penicillata, Brasilicereus phaeacanthus, Pereskia aurei- flora, Stephanocereus leucostele and Tacinga inamoena) endemic to the Caatinga and with different traits, to evalu- ate the impact of climate change on their geographical distribution. The species records and environmental variable values were overlaid on a grid of 6818 cells with 0.5° spatial resolution. Niche models were obtained for five types of general circulation models between ocean and atmosphere and 12 different ecological models. The ensemble ecological niche model was calculated at present and projected to past (last glacial maximum – LGM, 21 000; and mid-Holocene – Hol, 6000 years ago) and future climate conditions (average of 2080), under the effect of climate change, in the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5. The distribution pattern of the stud- ied species indicates an area with less environmental suitability in the LGM, followed by an expansion that began in the Hol and continued until the present period. In the future (2080), the models predicted a retraction of areas of environmental suitability, in which P. aureiflora and B. phaeacanthus, given their more restricted, mar- ginal habitat and woody habit, present a great risk of extinction, whilst S. leucostele, A. penicillata and T. inamoena present a smaller reduction in suitable area, partly reflecting their spreading, less woody habit. Regional conservation actions for Cactaceae species and their habitat need to take these findings into account if we are to ensure the survival of these species.
... Up to 31% of the 1478 evaluated species in this group are threatened, mostly due to land conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, collection as biological resources, and residential or commercial development (Goettsch et al. 2015). In addition, the future impacts of climate change on cacti species have begun to be explored in relatively recent terms; so far, the existing works in this regard have shown positive (Dávila et al. 2013, Carrillo-Angeles et al. 2016, negative (Téllez-Valdés and Vila-Aranda 2003;Butler et al. 2012), or mixed (Cortes et al. 2014) outcomes. ...
... winner species), whereas other species are expected to show significant reductions (i.e. loser species) in them (Araújo et al. 2011;Cortes et al. 2014). Accordingly, three outcomes are possible. ...
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The Cactaceae is considered one of the most threatened taxa in the world. However, the extent to which climate change could compromise the conservation status of this group has rarely been investigated. The present study advances this issue under three specific aims: (1) to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of endemic cacti species in the Baja California Peninsula (n = 40), (2) to study how the impact of climate change is distributed in this group according to the species’ conservation status, and (3) to analyze how these impacts are organized from a biogeographical and functional perspective. We addressed these objectives under three socioeconomic emission pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), and using two extreme migration scenarios: full climate change tracking and no migration. Altogether, all socioeconomic emission pathways under the two extreme migration scenarios show consistency regarding the identity of the species most vulnerable to climate change, and depict a discrepant future scenario that has, on one hand, species with large potential habitat gains/stability (winners); and on the other, species with large habitat reductions (losers). Our work indicates that winner species have a tropical affinity, globose growth, and includes most of the currently threatened species, whereas loser ones are in arid and Mediterranean systems and are mostly non-threatened. Thus, current and future threat factors do not overlap in the biogeographic and taxonomic space. That reveals a worrisome horizon at supraspecific levels in the study area, since the total number of threatened species in the future might largely increase.
... Palabras clave: Desierto Chihuahuense; Equivalencia de nicho; Similitud de nicho; Modelos de distribución de especies limiting cactus distribution in the Chihuahuan Desert (Hernández & Bárcenas, 1995). Niche modeling has shown that temperature has the greater influence on the distribution of 4 cactus species in Chihuahua (Cortés et al., 2014), while temperature and precipitation are the main environmental variables constraining distribution of species in the genus Astrophytum Lem. (Carrillo-Ángeles et al., 2016). ...
... Although in general cacti should benefit from an increase in CO 2 concentration and temperature rise, extending their poleward and elevation ranges, the impact of climate change should be determined at the specific level (Nobel, 1996). Indeed, niche projections for future climate show that species would respond in specific ways, the predicted distribution areas varying from remaining stable to undergoing a severe contraction (Aragón-Gastélum et al., 2014;Carrillo-Ángeles et al., 2016;Cortés et al., 2014). However, the potential distribution areas may not match potentially colonizable areas, the process being limited by several factors as seed dispersal efficiency, spatial barriers and unconnected distribution areas as observed for Thelocactus hastifer. ...
Article
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Although Mexican Cactaceae are a significative component of Mexican flora and have a relevant economic and ornamental value, the knowledge of the environmental factors characterizing their niche is still rather limited. This study was aimed at defining the ecological niche and potential distribution of 9 species of the genus Thelocactus. Climatic and topographic variables constraining the distribution of Thelocactus species were identified by means of environmental niche models (ENM) and ordination techniques and used to generate potential distribution maps. The constructed ENMs were compared to assess the similarities of the ecological niche of Thelocactus species and to know if they share the same ecological niche space. The distribution of Thelocactus species was mostly limited by isothermality and precipitation of wettest quarter. The differences in habitat requirements were well documented by the significative differences in the niche ecological space as shown by the equivalency test, while the high percentage of niches that were more similar than expected by chance suggest a high degree of niche conservatism among Thelocactus species. The spatial predictions could serve to improve field design sampling to discover new populations, while niche characteristics could be relevant for improving preservation actions and guiding reintroduction programs for a better conservation of Thelocactus species. © 2019 Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. All Rights Reserved.
... Thus, candelilla may be sensitive to warming changes generated as a consequence of an increment in the emissions of greenhouse gases in the future [65]. In order to conserve candelilla's populations, this behavior suggests that plantations of candelilla could be established in the northern area of its current distribution, mainly in north Coahuila and northwest Chihuahua in México [7,10,18,19]. In contrast, the southern populations appear to be more vulnerable as a consequence of global warming with the presence of warmer winters during the next fifty years. ...
Article
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Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.
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Twenty-one years have elapsed of the 21st Century and within the framework of the celebration of the 100th volume of Botanical Sciences, it is relevant to assess the progress of the research on conservation and on the activities undertaken for protecting the plants of Mexico, including the complementary in situ and ex situ approaches. By means of a systematic search of scientific articles related to the conservation of the Mexican flora on the Web of Science database, for the 2000–2021 period, we identified different scientific inputs, all showing specific objectives for undertaking conservation activities. The publications that resulted from this search were classified into six categories: (a) Regions and Ecoregions; (b) Communities or Ecosystems; (c) Taxonomic Groups; (d) Species and Populations; (e) Botanical Gardens; and (f) Seed Banks. For these categories, the results are presented under the headings “in situ conservation” and “ex situ conservation.” Additionally, we assessed by a random examination, the bibliography used to support touristic development projects. The results show that, despite the wide temporal range considered in this review, and even though there is a vast number of publications related to the characterization of the Mexican biodiversity, the production of scientific work oriented to the development of plant conservation strategies and activities is still scarce. Also evident is the lack of connection and communication among researchers of different disciplines, highlighting the disciplinary or multidisciplinary activities that they undertake. Finally, ten conclusions are presented, and some future research activities are suggested for conserving the Mexican flora.
Article
Climate change projections for the Brazilian semiarid region for the rest of this century include increased temperature, reduced precipitation and aridification. Consequently, alterations in the distribution of species are expected in the largest seasonally dry tropical forest in South America (Caatinga), which covers 75% of Brazil's semiarid region. This study modeled the potential distribution of eight cactus species native (target species) to the Caatinga under future climate scenarios and analyzed the range shifts of these species during the remainder of this century. Two online biodiversity databases, nine environmental variables and the Maxent algorithm were used, considering the time intervals 1961–1990, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080, along with two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5. The potential species distribution models predict that: (1) the future climate conditions are likely to cause contraction or expansion of the areas with high habitat suitability (>0.75) of the target species; (2) species with widespread distribution are likely to be vulnerable to climate change; (3) for some cactus species, climate change will provide an opportunity for expansion, but for the majority it will be a threat to survival; and (4) it is premature to claim that the future vegetation of the Caatinga will be dominated by cacti.
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The predictions of climate change in the Caatinga biome for this century are for an increase in air temperature and a reduction in rainfall. The combination of this physical phenomenon with biological invasions can increase losses of local biodiversity. The objective of the study was to model the potential distribution of Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill., an invasive cactus in the Caatinga biome in future climatic scenarios and to evaluate its space-time dynamics for the purpose of conservation of the biome. For this purpose, the MaxEnt algorithm was used, data on the presence of the target species and 10 environmental variables. In addition, the future time intervals 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, current 1961-1990 and the scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CMIP5 were considered. With bioclimatic modeling and climate changes included, it was possible to point to two future effects on the current areas suitable for the presence of the invasive target species. The first, there would be a gradual expansion of these areas until 2070 in RCP4.5 or until 2050 in RCP8.5. In the second, from 2070 on RCP8.5 there would be contraction until the end of the century. The expansion of the invasive target species could be managed as long as, observed the human component that facilitates the introduction of the plant in the biome and the concept of socioeconomic and environmental sustainability, for example, growing it under conditions of isolation for forage purposes.
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The climate change projections for the Caatinga biome this century are for an increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall, leading to aridization and plant cover dominated by Cactaceae. The objective of this study was to model the potential distribution of Epiphyllum phyllanthus (L.) Haw., a cactus that is native to the Caatinga biome, considering two possible future climate scenarios, to assess this species’ spatio-temporal response to these climate change, and thus to evaluate the need or not for conservation measures. For this purpose, we obtained biogeographic information on the target species from biodiversity databases, choosing nine environmental variables and applying the MaxEnt algorithm. We considered the time intervals 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, centered on 2050 and 2070, respectively, and the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5. For all the scenarios considered, the models generated for 2050 and 2070 projected drastic contraction (greater than 80%) for the areas of potential occurrence of the species in relation to the present potential. The remaining areas were found to be concentrated in the northern portion of the biome, specifically in the northern part of the state of Ceará, which has particular characteristics.
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Recently vegetation comparative analyses have been increasingly used to define vegetation types in Brazilian territory. To carry out these analyses, each study has elaborated its own database, which usually is discarded at the end of a research project. This practice means waste of time, money, personal effort and mainly information. Organising and centralising information in a database, which lasts for a long time is the best way to avoid effort overlapping and waste of money, besides providing opportunities for scientists in different areas to use and share information. FITOGEO was conceived to meet these requirements. It was developed to store and manage floristic, phytosociologic, associated environmental variables and taxonomic information. FITOGEO maintains data integrity. It is “species centred” and able to integrate data and metadata from several sources. This database system presents two interfaces: (1) the floristic/phytosociologic, presenting information from species lists including the species and the methods, and associated environmental variables, such geographic co-ordinate, altitude, temperature and precipitation; and (2) the taxonomic, presenting information related to the species, such as correct spelling, valid name and supraspecific hierarchic levels.
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Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost–benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly.
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Las cactáceas son plantas importantes por su endemismo y amplia distribución en el continente americano. El presente trabajo es el resultado de un mega proyecto que tuvo como objetivo principal, inventariar y registrar todas las especies de cactáceas, resaltando las endémicas y raras para generar información actualizada y fidedigna de la riqueza específica en el estado de Chihuahua. Se realizaron recorridos durante tres años en cuatro ecosistemas: matorral, pastizal, bosques templados y tropicales caducifolios. Se establecieron 450 sitios de muestreo, los cuales sirvieron para obtener datos sobre: detección y registro de especies; tipo de vegetación, altitud y obtención de material fotográfico digital de las especies y de comunidades vegetales. Cada sitio de observación es un atributo espacial representado por un par de coordenadas UTM (X,Y), establecido a una distancia predeterminada durante el recorrido y variando en áreas circulares desde 1 km2 hasta 3 km2. Se generaron 2,260 registros de plantas, los que arrojaron 145 taxa, distribuidos en 123 especies y 22 variedades. La distribución de taxa en forma general fue: 63 % en planicies, 22 % en barrancas y 15 % en la Sierra Madre Occidental. El 16 % de estas son especies registradas en la NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010. El 21 % de los taxa son endémicos para Chihuahua y estados colindantes; 7 % son exclusivos de Chihuahua, o sea, su distribución está restringida en la entidad. Es importante implementar programas de manejo, aprovechamiento sustentable y de conservación para crear conciencia comunitaria y evitar la depredación indiscriminada y la posible extinción de estas plantas emblemáticas de este país. Abstract Cacti are important plants for being endemic and having a wide distribution in the Americas. This paper is the outcome of a large-scale project whose main objective was to inventory and record all cacti species, highlighting those which are endemic and rare, in order to produce updated and reliable information on the species richness in the state of Chihuahua. Field work was conducted for three years in four ecosystems: shrubland, grassland, temperate forest and tropical deciduous forest. More than 450 sampling sites were established to obtain data on: species detection and recording, vegetation type, altitude and obtaining digital photographic material of the species and plant communities. Each sampling site is a special attribute represented by a pair of UTM coordinates (xy), established at a given distance in the field and ranging from 1 to 3 km2 in circular size. More than 2,260 plant records were obtained and after analysis they yielded 145 plant taxa, consisted of 123 species and 22 varieties. The distribution of taxa, in general, was: 63 % in the plains, 22 % in the temperate area and 15 % in the tropical canyons in the Sierra Madre Occidental. 16 % from the total of the taxa are listed in the Mexican Standard NOM-059- SEMARNAT-2001; 21 % are endemic in Chihuahua, including neighboring states, and 7 % of them are exclusive to Chihuahua, i.e. species whose distribution is strictly restricted in the state. It is important to implement management programs, sustainable use and conservation, to create community awareness and prevent indiscriminate predation and the possible extinction of these emblematic plants of this country. Keywords: taxa, biological group, endemic and rare species.
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After 500 years of exploitation and destruction, the Brazilian Atlantic Forest has been reduced to less the 8% of its original cover, and climate change may pose a new threat to the remnants of this biodiversity hotspot. In this study we used modelling techniques to determine present and future geographical distribution of 38 species of trees that are typical of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Mata Atlântica), considering two global warming scenarios. The optimistic scenario, based in a 0.5% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, predicts an increase of up to 2 °C in the Earth's average temperature; in the pessimistic scenario, based on a 1% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, temperature increase may reach 4 °C. Using these parameters, the occurrence points of the studied species registered in literature, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Predictions/GARP and Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions/MaxEnt we developed models of present and future possible occurrence of each species, considering Earth's mean temperature by 2050 with the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios of CO2 emission. The results obtained show an alarming reduction in the area of possible occurrence of the species studied, as well as a shift towards southern areas of Brazil. Using GARP, on average, in the optimistic scenario this reduction is of 25% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 50%, and the species that will suffer the worst reduction in their possible area of occurrence are: Euterpe edulis, Mollinedia schottiana, Virola bicuhyba, Inga sessilis and Vochysia magnifica. Using MaxEnt, on average, in the optimistic scenario the reduction will be of 20% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 30%, and the species that will suffer the worst reduction are: Hyeronima alchorneoides, Schefflera angustissima, Andira fraxinifolia and the species of Myrtaceae studied.
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We examined the effects of climate change on the future distribution patterns of 20 species of Cactaceae in a protected area of México. Our study area was the biosphere reserve of Tehuacán-Cuicatlán in central México. Cactaceae species in the reserve were selected because they are often the dominant elements of the communities and play an important social role as a source of food, construction, and fuel. We used a floristic database and a bioclimatic modeling approach to examine 19 climatic parameters and to obtain the current potential distribution pattern of each species. Three different future climate scenarios were selected, on the basis of the predictions of several authors about future climate change. We considered the following three future scenarios: ( 1 ) +1° C and –10% rainfall; ( 2 ) +2° C and –10% rainfall; ( 3 ) +2° C and –15% rainfall. Each scenario implies different potential distribution patterns for the species involved; these patterns were analyzed in relationship to the reserve boundaries. In particular, the third scenario indicated three distinct possibilities: ( 1 ) a drastic distribution contraction in which most of the remaining populations will inhabit restricted areas out of reserve boundaries or will became extinct; ( 2 ) restriction of remaining populations mainly within reserve boundaries; and ( 3 ) contraction of species distribution pattern but populations remaining within and outside the reserve boundaries. Our results highlight the importance of considering the effects of possible future climate changes on the selection of conservation areas. Accordingly, we believe that our bioclimatic modeling approach represents a useful tool with which to make decisions about the definition of protected areas, once the current potential distribution pattern of some selected species is known.
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Although well-studied vertebrates such as the Northern Spotted Owl (NSO) are often used as focal species in regional conservation plans, range shifts associated with climate change may compromise this role. I used the Maxent (maximum entropy) method to develop NSO distribution models from data on NSO locations, forest age, and an ensemble of climate projections. NSO presence was positively associated with the proportion of old and mature forest at two spatial scales. Winter precipitation was the most important climate variable, consistent with previous studies suggesting negative effects on survival and recruitment. Model results suggest that initial niche expansion may be followed by a contraction as climate change intensifies, but this prediction is uncertain due to variability in predicted changes in precipitation between climate projections. Although new reserves created by the US Northwest Forest Plan prioritized areas with greater biological importance for the NSO than did pre-existing reserves, the latter areas, which lie predominantly at higher elevations, increase in importance under climate change. In contrast with previous analyses of the region’s localized old-forest-associated species, vegetation rather than climate dominated NSO distribution models. Rigorous assessment of the implications of climate change for focal species requires development of dynamic vegetation models that incorporate effects of competitor species and altered disturbance regimes. The results suggest that, lacking such data, models that combine climate data with current data on habitat factors such as vegetation can inform conservation planning by providing less-biased estimates of potential range shifts than do niche models based on climate variables alone.
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It is generally acknowledged that global warming is occurring, yet estimates of future climate change vary widely. Given this uncertainty, when asked about climate change, it is likely that people’s judgments may be affected by heuristics and accessible schemas. Three studies evaluated this proposition. Study 1 revealed a significant positive correlation between the outdoor temperature and beliefs in global warming. Study 2 showed that people were more likely to believe in global warming when they had first been primed with heat-related cognitions. Study 3 demonstrated that people were more likely to believe in global warming and more willing to pay to reduce global warming when they had first been exposed to a high vs. a low anchor for future increases in temperature. Together, results reveal that beliefs about global warming (and willingness to take actions to reduce global warming) are influenced by heuristics and accessible schemas. Several practical implications are discussed.
Posibles Efectos del Cambio Climático en Algunos Componentes de la Biodiversidad de México
  • L Arriaga
  • L Gómez
Arriaga, L.; Gómez, L. Posibles Efectos del Cambio Climático en Algunos Componentes de la Biodiversidad de México. In Cambio Climático: Una Visión Desde México;
Aplicación de los modelos de distribución geográfica para la conservación y reintroducción en el hábitat natural de Lychnophora ericoide
  • A Rodríguez
Rodríguez, A. Aplicación de los modelos de distribución geográfica para la conservación y reintroducción en el hábitat natural de Lychnophora ericoide. Tesis Licenciatura, Universidad Internacional de Andalucía, España, México, 2011.
Apuntes sobre modelación de nichos ecológicos
  • N Martínez
Martínez, N. Apuntes sobre modelación de nichos ecológicos. In Laboratorio de Evolución Molecular y Experimental; Instituto de Ecología de la, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 2010.