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Thepublishingdelayinscholarlypeer‐reviewedjournals
Bo‐ChristerBjörk
Professor,InformationSystemsScience
HankenSchoolofEconomics
P.B.479
00101Helsinki,Finland
bo‐christer.bjork@hanken.fi
DavidSolomon(CorrespondingAuthor)
Professor,DepartmentofMedicineandOMERAD
A‐202EFeeHall
MichiganStateUniversity
ELansing,MIUSA48824
dsolomon@msu.edu
+1517339‐0720
Abstract:
Publishinginscholarlypeerreviewedjournalsusuallyentailslongdelaysfrom
submissiontopublication.Inpartthisisduetothelengthofthepeerreview
processandinpartbecauseofthedominatingtraditionofpublicationinissues,
earlieranecessityofpaper‐basedpublishing,whichcreatesbacklogsof
manuscriptswaitinginline.Thedelaysslowthedisseminationofscholarship
andcanprovideasignificantburdenontheacademiccareersofauthors.
Usingastratifiedrandomsamplewestudiedaveragepublishingdelaysin2700
paperspublishedin135journalssampledfromtheScopuscitationindex.The
shortestoveralldelaysoccurinsciencetechnologyandmedical(STM)fieldsand
thelongestinsocialscience,arts/humanitiesandbusiness/economics.
Business/economicswithadelayof18monthstooktwiceaslongaschemistry
witha9monthaveragedelay.Analysisofthevarianceindicatedthatbyfarthe
largestamountofvarianceinthetimebetweensubmissionandacceptancewas
amongarticleswithinajournalascomparedwithjournals,disciplinesorthesize
ofthejournal.Forthetimebetweenacceptanceandpublicationmostofthe
variationindelaycanbeaccountedforbydifferencesbetweenspecificjournals.
Keywords:ScholarlyPublishing;ReviewTime;ProcessingTime
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1Introduction
ScholarlyjournalpublishinghasalonghistorygoingbacktoHenryOldenburg’s
PhilosophicalTransactionoftheRoyalSocietyfoundedin1665.Forthepasttwo
centuriesthevolumeofpeerreviewedarticlespublishedperyearhasincreased
byarelativesteady3,5%peryear,withacurrentnumberofarticlesofaround
1,8–1,9million,publishedinanestimated28’000journals(WareandMabe
2012).Overtheyearsthescientificjournalasaninstitutionhasevolvedinmany
waysandafterthesecondworldwarandtheensuingrapidgrowthinscience
commercialpublishershaveincreasinglyenteredthismarket,whichearlierwas
dominatedbyscientificsocieties.
Thedisseminationmediumhasveryrapidlychangedfromprintedissuesto
predominantlydigitallydistributedpublishing(VanOrsdelandBorn,2002).At
thesametimethishastriggeredtheemergenceofnewbusinessmodelsfor
digitalpublishing,includingbundlede‐licenses,pay‐per‐viewandopenaccess
publishing.Scholarlyjournalpublishinginitscurrentformhasbeentheobjectof
increasedcritiquesincetheadventoftheWorldWideWebandtheopportunities
itoffersforprocessinnovation,Thedebatehasinparticularconcernedthree
aspects.Firstlythatthereachofthedisseminationthatthetraditional
subscriptionmodelachievesissuboptimal.Secondlythatthepeerreview
processisflawedandfrequentlyleadstoarbitrarydecisions.Thirdlythatthere
aresignificantdelaysinpublishingarticles.Traditionalpaperpublishingin
particularcreatessignificantdelaysbothduetotheneedtobundlearticlesinto
issuesandbacklogscreatedbypagelimitsresultingfromthehighperpagecost
ofthistypeofpublishing.
ThesolutionproposedtothelimiteddisseminationisOpenAccess(OA),which
canbeachievedeitherthroughpublishinginopenaccessjournals(“goldOA”)or
throughauthor’suploadingmanuscriptversionsoftheirarticles(“greenOA”)to
subjectorinstitutionalrepositories(Suber2012).OAjournalshaveincreased
theiroutputby20‐30%peryearforoveradecadeandnowpublisharound12%
ofallpeerreviewedarticles(LaaksoandBjörk2012).Theopenaccessibilitycan
beachievedviaanumberofbusinessmodelsofwhichthepublishingfeevariant
israpidlyincreasingitsmarketshare.
Thecritiqueofthepeerreviewprocesshasledtoanumberofexperimentswith
alternativemodels.Thewebmediumlendsitselftodifferentformsofopen
review,wheremanuscriptscanbe“published”priortorevieworwithminimal
reviewandsubsequentlyevaluatedbyreadercommentsandelevatedtofull
articlestatusviapostpublicationfeedback.(Björk2011).Openreviewwastried
anddeemedafailureinawell‐knownexperimentbyNature(2006).More
successfulthanopenreviewexperimentsisanalternativepeerreviewmodel
practicedbyanincreasingnumberofOA“megajournals”inthewakeofPLoS
ONE,whichcurrentlypublishesaround20,000articlesperyear.Inthisformof
peerreviewonlythescientificvalidityoftheresultsischecked,thedecision
concerningthepotentialcontributionisleftforthereaderstodecide.
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AnimportantreasonforthesuccessofPLoSONEisalsothatisoffersavery
attractivealternativetoauthorswhoaretiredofthelongdelaysinvolvedin
publishingintraditionaljournalsandrejectiononwhatarefelttobearbitrary
andorbiasedopinionsofreviewersand/oreditor.Thedelaywasanecessary
facetofthepublishingprocesspriortotheturnofthemillennium,whenjournals
werealmostexclusivelypublishedinpaperform,andwherejournalpagelimits
wereaneconomicnecessity.Sincethenelectroniconlyjournalshaveshownthat
thedelaycanbeconsiderablyshortened.Alsothetraditionaljournalshave
acknowledgedtheexistenceoftheproblembystartingtopost“inpress”or
completelycopyeditedandformatted“aheadofprint”versionsofaccepted
manuscriptsevenbeforetheybecomepartofanissueandreceivepagenumbers.
Arecentsurveywithauthorsshowedthatthespeedofpublicationwasthethird
mostimportantfactoraffectingauthors’choiceofjournal,aftertopicalfitandthe
qualityofthejournal(SolomonandBjörk2012).
Insomefieldsofscienceauthorshavetriedtopartlybypassthesystemby
publishingtheirmanuscriptsinopenwebrepositoriespriortosubmissionas
workingpapers(economics)orpreprints(physics),inordertospeedupthe
disseminationoftheresults.Inothercasesexperimentshavebeenmadewith
newtypesofpeerreviewjournals,inwhichonlylightlyscreenedmanuscripts
havebeenopenlypublishedonthejournalwebsites,andthebetteroneshave
laterbeenelevatedtofulljournalarticlestatus(Björk2011),provingthesealof
quality.
Itisourbeliefthatthelengthofthedelayisnotconstantacrossdifferentfieldsof
science,butdependsonthereviewandpublishingculturesthathaveevolvedin
differentsciences.Forexampleadelayoftwoyears,commonineconomicsand
management,wouldbedifficulttoacceptforacademicsinthebiomedical
sciences.
1.1TheLife‐cyclestagesofapeer‐reviewedarticle
Duringitslife‐cycleascholarlyarticleundergoesanumberofstages,someof
whichareinfocusinthisstudy.Duringthewritingandfinalizingofamanuscript
mostauthorstendtoshowittoafewtrustedcolleagues,fromwhomthey
receivefeedbackandsuggestionsforimprovement.Inmanydisciplinesit’salso
commontopublishversionsasconferencepapersandinafewdisciplines,in
particularphysicsandeconomics,atraditionofpublishingworkingpapershas
evolved.Atsomestagetheauthor(orauthors)formallysubmitsthemanuscript
toaparticularjournal.Mostjournalsrequirethatamanuscripthasn’tbeen
publishedelsewhereandthatisnotunderconsiderationforpublishingby
anotherjournal.Inmedicinethisrulecanbeevenstricterinthatauthorsarealso
restrictedfromdiscussingtheresultswiththepopularmedia,theso‐called
Inglefingerrule.Fromtheviewpointofthewholescholarlycommunitytherule
excludingparallelsubmissionisunderstandableintermsofavoiding
unnecessaryreplicationoftheunpaidrefereeworkdonebytheeditorandother
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scholars.Ontheotherhandthiscausespublishingdelaysforauthorswhose
workisrejectedinthefirstandevensecondjournaltowhichtheysubmit.
Thequalityandextentofthepeerreviewthatamanuscriptundergoesvaries
considerablyacrossjournalsanddisciplines.Theeditorsofmanyjournalsscreen
submissionsandquicklyrejectmanuscriptsthatareclearlyunsuitablewithout
sendingthemoutforexternalpeerreview.Thereviewprocesscanalsoinvolve
severalcyclesofreviewandrevision,apracticecommoninmoreselective
journalsparticularlyinspecificdisciplinessuchasbusinessandmanagement.
Manuscriptsatsomepointareaccepted,rejectedorinsomecaseswithdrawnby
theauthorwhomayfindtherequestedrevisionsortherevisionprocess
unacceptable.Ifacceptedmanuscriptsaregenerallycopyeditedandtypesetby
thepublisherorcontractor,afterwhichtheauthorisusuallyaskedtocheckthe
finalversion.Intraditionalprintpublishingthefinalizedmanuscriptisthenput
inthequeueforpublishing,awaitingitsturn,usuallythoughnotalways
accordingtoitspositioninthequeue.Articlessubmittedtoaspecialissueare
treatedabitdifferently.Thequeuingcantakeaslongasayearormoreifthe
journalhasasignificantback‐log.Ifthejournalalsopublishesanelectronic
versionmanuscriptsareoftenpublishedearlieronthejournalwebsiteunder
headingslike“in‐press”usuallywithoutexactpagenumbersandassignmentof
issue.Mostelectronicopenaccessjournalspublisharticlesdirectlywhenthey
arereadyratherthaninissues,thusspeedinguptheprocess.
Ifwewouldtakeamanuscriptandnotjournal‐centricviewthetotaldelaywould
oftenbeevenlongersincemanymanuscriptsarerejected,andinsomecases
severaltimesbeforepublication.Thistimefromsubmissiontorejection,insome
casesfrommultiplejournals,needstobeaddedtothedelayofthejournalthat
finallypublishesthearticle.Azar(2004)discussesthisforthecaseofeconomics
journalsandpointsouttheimportanceoffirst‐responsedelays,sinceitisoften
atthisstagethatauthorsneedtofindalternativejournalsforsubmittingtheir
manuscripts.
Inthisstudywetakethejournal‐centricviewlookinginparticularatthedelay
fromsubmissiontoacceptanceandthedelayfromacceptancetofinal
publication,aswellasthetotaldelaytime.Althoughitmightbepossibletoget
dataforotherstagesintheoverallprocessforsomejournalsthesethreepoints
intimearecommonforallpeerreviewedjournals.
1.2PreviousResearch
Thereareanumberofpossiblesourcesofinformationaboutpublicationdelays.
Ideallypublisherswouldtrackandmakethisdataavailable.Thisishowever
rare,perhapsbecausepublishersandeditorsmaybehesitanttodiscloselong
delays.Sometimestheinformationcanbefoundineditorialsinjournals,which
oftenalsoprovideinformationabouttheacceptanceratesofjournals.Another
optionistogatherarticledataaboutsubmissionandacceptancedateswhichis
oftenpublishedindividuallyineacharticleoronthearticles’facepageonthe
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publisher’swebsite.Thisisaverylabor‐intensiveprocessbutprovidesprecise
statisticsforthearticlessampled.Afinaloptionistogatherthedatafrom
authorswhichwouldbedifficultandlikelytobefairlyinaccurate.
Earlierstudieshavemostlycollectedthedataincludedinpublishedarticles.One
ofthefewstudiesusingstatisticssolicitedfrompublisherswastheearlystudyof
economicsjournalbyYohe(1980),whoobtainedstatisticsfromtheeditorsof
20journalsandextractedarticleleveldatafor5more.
Trivedi(1993)foundthattheaveragetotalpublicationdelayforeconometrics
articlesinsevenstudiedjournalswas22.8months,consistingof13.4months
fromsubmissiontoacceptanceand9.4monthsfromacceptancetopublication.
Ellison(2002)concentratedhisstudyonthereviewtimesonly(submissionto
acceptance)andfoundanaverageof16.5monthsin1999foraselectionof25
journalsineconomicsandrelatedfields.Hewasalsoabletodoalongitudinal
analysisforasubsetofthejournalsusingdatabothfromYohe(1980)andCoe
andWeinstock(1967)andfoundthatthereviewtimeshadmorethandoubled
inthreedecades(1970‐1999),forfiveleadingeconomicsjournalsfrom8.7to
20.7months.Themainreasonforthisseemstobetheincreasingnumberof
iterativeroundsinthereviewprocess.Healsofoundthattheaveragereview
timesvarybetweendifferentsub‐specialtiesofeconomics,evenforarticles
publishedinthesamejournalswithbroaderscopes,andsuggestthatthe
expectationsforthetypeandlengthofthereviewshavebeensociallyshaped
withinnarrowscholarlycommunities.
AlsoHartmann(1997)reportsonadramaticincreaseinsubmissionto
publicationdelays.ForarticlesintheJournalofAtmosphericSciencesthetotal
timeincreasedfrom5.9to15.2monthsbetween1970and1997andwhilethe
acceptancetopublicationlagincreasedsomewhat(4.4to6.6months)the
increasewasmainlyattributabletotheincreaseinthetimerequiredbythe
reviewprocess(1.5to8.5months).
KlingandSwygart‐Hobaugh(2002)comparedtheevolutionofpublication
delaysforthreenaturalscienceandthreesocialsciencejournalsbetween
1970/1980and2000,inanattempttoseeiftheemailcommunicationwidelyin
usein2000hadreducedaveragedelays.Theyfoundthatthedelaysinchemistry
andphysicsjournalshaddecreasedfrom6.5monthsto5.8(andevenmoreso
foraminorityofarticlespublishedelectronicallybeforepaperpublication)but
thatthedelaysintheeconomics,managementandpsychologyjournalshad
increasedfrom9.0to23.8months.
Diospatonyietal(2001)studiedtheevolutionofpublicationdelaysinten
chemistryjournalsintheperiod1985‐1999,andcouldnotfindanyclear
developmenttoshorterorlongerperiods,withtheyearlyaveragesranging
between6.7and7.5months.Thepapercontainsdetailedbreakdownsofthe
spreadofdelaywithinjournalsaswellasananalysisofthebreakdownbetween
submissiontoacceptancevsacceptancetopublication.
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Carroll(2001)comparedpublicationdelaysforsixstatisticsjournalsandfounda
slightdecreasefrom25.2monthsin1994to22.3in1999.Hesuggestthatthe
declinemightbeduetoelectronicpublishingbecomingmorecommoninthefive
yearinterval.Amat(2008)studied14journalsinfoodscienceandfoundan
averagepublicationdelayof11.8months(forarangeof6.2‐17.2months).The
delaysofthreecivilengineeringjournalsreportedbyBjörkandTurk(2006)
variedbetween6.7months(foranOAjournal)comparedto18.0and18.9for
twoconventionaljournals.
ThestudybyLuwelandMoed(1998)differedfromtheabovebecauseit
includedjournalsfromdifferentsubjectareas.Thestudywastriggeredbyclaims
ofDutchresearchersthatarticlesintechnicalsciencesandmathematicshave
muchlongerdelaysthanarticlesinphysicsandchemistry,andthatresearchers
intheformerfieldsaredisadvantagedinshorttermbibliometriccomparisons,
oftenusedwhencomparingcandidatesforpromotionetc.Inaselectionof15
leadinginternationaljournalsintheabovefields,therangeofdelayswas
between2.5and17.5monthswithmathematicsandengineeringjournals
tendingtobetowardsthehigherend.
Anotherstudywithjournalsfromdifferentdisciplineswasthestudyof26
IranianjournalspublishinginthePersianlanguage(Khosrowjerdietal2011).
Thedelayrangeforthesepredominantlysocialscienceandhumanitiesjournals
wasverywide(5.8to34.6months)withanaverageof17.3months.
ThestudybyDongetal(2006)istheonlystudythattriedtoanalyseifthedelay
timesforOAjournalsdifferfromsubscriptionjournalsinbiomedicine.They
comparedsixOAjournalsfromtheleadingOApublisherBioMedCentral(BMC)
withsixjournalsoncorrespondingtopicsfromNaturePublishingGroup(NPG)
aswellassixotherBMCjournalswithelevensocietyjournals.Theresults
demonstratedthattheNPGjournalswereequaltotheBMCjournalsinoverall
publicationdelay(4.5months)butmarginallyfasteriftheelectronicpublication
dateswerecompared.TheBMCjournalsclearlyoutperformedthesociety
journals(4.8vs8.9months).Itisnoteworthythattheinthesubscription
journalstheprintversionstrailedtheelectronicversionsbyonlyshortperiods
ofbetween0.5to1.5months.
Yuetal(2004),aspartofthebuildingofamathematicalmodelofthedelay
process,collecteddelaydataforsevenjournals.Scientometrics,aninformation
sciencejournalhadadelayof5.5monthsandtheJournalofMathematical
physicsadelayof9.0butthefiveotherjournals,fourofwhichwereindifferent
engineeringfieldsandoneinthesocialsciences,haddelaysintherange16.4–
20.0months.
Tortetal(2011)studiedthedelaysbetweenelectronicandprintpublishingin
neurosciencejournal,andfoundasignificantincreasebetween2003and2011.
Theywerealsoabletodemonstratethatincreasingthedelayincreasesa
particularjournal’simpactfactor,duetothetimewindowsusedbytheISIin
calculatingtheimpactfactor!
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Table1aboutHere
Previousstudiespointtotwothings.Firstlythattherearesubstantialdifferences
inpublicationdelayswithleadingbiomedicalandchemistryjournalsachieving
delaysofroughlyhalfayearandattheotherendofthespectrumeconomicsand
statisticsjournalstypicallyhavingaveragedelaysofclosetotwoyears.Secondly
thatthedelayshaveincreasedsubstantiallyinsomedisciplinesoverthepast
decades,partlyduetoanincreaseinthelengthofthereviewprocess.
Twofactorswhichhavenotbeenexplicitlystudiedaretheeffectsofjournalsize
andscientificqualitylevelonthedelays.Mostofthepreviousstudieshavebeen
benchmarkingstudieswithinnarrowdisciplinesofrelativelyhomogeneous,
highlycitedjournals.Sizecouldinparticulareffectthedelayafteracceptance
sincesmallerjournalsmayappearonlyfourtimesayearoreventwiceayear,
whichmeansthatarticlesmighthavetowaitinaqueueforquitesometime
beforepublication.Qualitymightlengthenthesubmissiontoacceptancetimes
sincearticlesmightgothroughseveraliterationsinthereviewprocess.Onthe
otherhandthemosthighlycitedjournalsintheirfieldsmightfinditeasierto
recruitreviewersandaremorelikelytohavealargereditorialstaffandprocess
submissionsmorequickly.
1.3Aims
Basedonthepreviouslypublisheddata,alotofanecdotalevidenceandpersonal
experiencesasauthorstheaimsofthisstudyweredefinedasfollows.
Tostudypublicationdelaysinscholarlypeer‐reviewedjournalsacrossdisciplines,
journalsizeandjournalquality.
Weexplicitlyruledoutdoingalongitudinalanalysis,duetotheverytime‐
consumingworkofdatacollection.
2.Method
2.1Pilotstudy
Beforestartingdatacollectionwedida“feasibilitystudy”thataddressedtwo
issues.Firstlywecheckedourabilitytoobtaincopiesofarticlesfromjournals
indexedinScopusoratleasttheabstractsiftheyhappentocontainthe
necessaryinformation.Secondlywecheckedwhetherthejournalsortheirfreely
availableabstractsincludedsufficientinformationonthepublicationtimeframe.
Itwasnecessarytocheckaccesstoelectroniccopiesofthejournalsthroughour
libraries’electronicholdingsaswefeltitwouldnotbefeasibletogatherthedata
frompapercopiesofagivenjournalorgetthenecessarycopiesviainterlibrary
loan.AccesstothejournalswascheckedviathelibrariesofHankenSchoolof
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EconomicsandMichiganStateUniversity.Forthispilotstudywerandomly
selected100journalsindexedinScopus.
Atotalof66%ofthesejournalswereavailablethrougheithertheelectronic
holdingsofourlibrariesortheywerefreelyavailableonlineandweredeemed
tobeappropriateforanalysis.Themajorityofjournalswecouldnotfindorgain
accessweresmallerjournalspublishedinothercountriesthantheUS,UK,
NetherlandsandGermany.
Sixty‐fourpercentoftheavailablejournalscontainedatleastthesubmissionand
acceptancedatesanditwaspossibletodeterminethedateofpublicationeither
aslistedorbythedateoftheissueinwhichanarticlewaspublished.Wealso
foundthatjournalstypicallypublishedthedatesofuptofivedifferentkeypoints
inthepublicationprocess.Theseincluded,submission,revisionbasedon
feedback,acceptance,publicationaheadofprintinanelectronicformat,andfinal
publicationaspartofanissue.Thefirstfourwereusuallyincludedasdates,
whereasthelastitemcouldoftenonlybedeterminedbythemonthoftheissue
whichcontainedthearticle.Theresultsofthepilotstudyconfirmedthatthereis
enoughdataavailabletomakethestudyfeasible.
2.2Mainstudy
ThemainsourcedatabaseforthestudywastheScopuscitationindex,which
containsinformationaboutsome19,500scholarlyjournals,includingtheyearly
articleandcitationcounts.TheSCImagoJournal&CountryRankwebsite
(SCImago,2013)providesfreelyaccessibleScopusdataatthejournallevel
whichwasthedatasourceforthisstudy.
Elsevier,thepublisherofScopusprovidesafreelydownloadablespreadsheeton
theirwebsite(Scopus,2013)thatamongotherinformationprovidesa
hierarchicalclassificationofeachjournal’sdiscipline.Thehighestclassification
includedonly4categoriesandwasfelttobetoobroad.Thesecondlevelincludes
27categoriesandwasfelttobetoospecific.Wedecidedtomergesomeofthese
lattergroupsbasedonoursubjectiveassumptionofsimilarityinreviewing
cultureandpublicationspeedresultinginninegroups.Theseinclude
arts/humanities,biomedicine,business/economics,chemistry,earthscience,
engineering,mathematics,physics,andsocialsciences.
Wehypothesizedthatthereweredifferencesinthepublicationtimeassociated
withjournalsize.Westratifiedbysizeinsuchawaytoensureeacharticlewithin
adisciplinecategoryhadanequalchanceofinclusioninthestudy.Thejournals
wereorderedbysizebasedonScopusarticlecountsin2010.Thejournals
containingthefirstthirdofthearticlesinadisciplinemadeupthesmallest
journalstrata,thejournalscontainingthemiddlethirdmadeupthemiddle
journalstrataandthelastthirdofthearticlesthelargejournalstrata.This
resultedinamuchsmallernumberofjournalsinthelargestjournalstrata
thoughanequalnumberofarticlesperstrata.
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Werandomlyorderedthejournalsineachdiscipline/sizestrataandwent
throughthejournalsinordercheckingtoseeiftheywereavailablefromeither
ofourtwolibraries,HankenSchoolofEconomicsandMichiganStateUniversity
oratleasttheabstractorjournalwasfreelyavailableandcontainedthe
necessarydates.Forthosejournalswewereabletoaccess,wecheckedfirst
whethertheyappearedtobepeer‐reviewedscholarlyjournalsandcontainedat
leastthedatesofsubmissionandacceptance.Whenanappropriatejournalwas
foundweselected20articlesworkingbackwardfromthelastarticlepublished
in2012.Specialissues,invitedarticlesandeditorialswhereskipped.Foreach
articlewerecordedtheISSN,DOI,orifnoteasilyobtained,title,submissionand
acceptancedates.Ifavailablewealsorecordedthedatearevisionrequestwas
madeandthedatethearticlewaspublishedelectronicallyaheadofprint.
Publicationdateunlessstatedspecificallywasbasedonthemidpointofthe
publicationperiod.Soifajournalwaspublishedmonthly,itwasthe15thofthe
monththeissuewaspublished.Ifitwasquarterly,thedatewasthemiddleofthe
quarter,forexampleFebruary15thforthefirstquarter.AhandfulOAjournals
containedexactdateoffinalpublication,whichwasusedinplaceofanestimated
date.Whenourmethodofdeterminingthepublicationdateresultedina
negativenumberofdaybetweenacceptanceandpublication,wesetthenumber
ofdaysfromacceptancetopublicationtozero.Whileweoriginallycalculated
thetimebetweensubmissionandacceptanceandthetimebetweenacceptance
andpublicationindays,forthepurposesofanalyzingandpresentingthedata,
weconverteddaysintomonthsbydividingby30.44.
Fivejournalswereincludedforeachsizegroupforeachofthe9discipline
categoriesresultingindatafor135journalsand2,700articles.Forthepurposes
ofthisstudy,thetimefromsubmissiontoacceptanceandacceptanceto
publicationmeasuredinmonthswasusedasthemainoutcomevariables.
SourceNormalizedImpactperPaper(SNIP)version2citationmeasureswere
obtainedfromtheJournalM3tricswebsite(2013).Wealsoobtainedinformation
onwhetherajournalwasintheDirectoryofOpenAccessJournals(DOAJ).
DatamanagementandmostoftheanalyseswereconductedusingtheStatistical
PackagefortheSocialSciences(SPSS).Mostanalyseswereconductedatthelevel
ofindividualarticles.SinceSNIPvaluesareassignedtojournals,weaveragedthe
timefromsubmissiontoacceptanceandfromacceptancetopublicationfor
assessingtherelationshipbetweenthesetimesandeachjournal’sSNIP.
Thedatacollectedformedabalanceddesignandhenceitwaspossibleusing
analysisofvariance(ANOVA)topartitionthevarianceassociatedwitheach
factorinthedesign.Disciplinewascrossedwithsizegroup.Journalswerenested
inbothdisciplineandsizegroupandarticleswerenestedinajournal.Discipline
andsizegroupwereconsideredtobefixedeffectswhilejournalsandarticles
withinajournalwereconsideredtoberandomeffectsthatweresampled.Based
onthisdesignweestimatedthevariancecomponentsforthetimebetween
submissionandacceptanceaswellasacceptanceandpublicationusingGENOVA
(Brennan,2001).Thisanalysiswasusedtoassessthepercentageofthevariance
inthetimesfromsubmissiontoacceptanceandfromacceptancetopublication
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thatcouldbeattributedtoeachsource,discipline,size,theirinteraction,journals
andarticleswithinjournals.
3.Results
Althoughmoredetaileddatawereavailableforsomejournals,wefocusedthe
reportingonthetimefromoriginalsubmissiontoacceptanceandfrom
acceptancetofinalpublicationaswefeltthesewerethekeytimepointsandwe
wereabletoobtaincompletedataacrossalldisciplinesandsizegroups.Thefirst
timeperiodreflectsthedelayduetothepeerreviewandrevisionprocessused
byajournalandthesecondthelengthofthepublishingprocess,backlogdueto
publicationpagelimitsandpotentiallyotherfactors.
Table2presentssummarystatisticsforsubmissiontoacceptance,acceptanceto
publicationandtotaltimesubmissiontopublication.Figures1and2present
thisinformationingraphicformforthe9disciplines(Figure1)and3journal
sizegroupings(Figure2).Detailedsummarystatisticsforthebreakdownby
disciplinesandsizegroupsarecontainedintheAppendix.Ascanbeseenin
Figure1,totaltimefromsubmissiontopublicationvariessignificantlyby
disciplinewithbusinessatjustunder18monthshavingpublicationtimesnearly
twicethatofchemistryatabout9months.Largerjournalsappeartohavethe
shortestpublicationtimeswithmid‐sizedjournalsthelongest.
BasedoninclusionintheDOAJtherewere19OpenAccess(OA)journalsor
approximately14%ofthesample.Ofthese,7weredeterminedtobeOAfrom
theirinceptionand12weredeterminedtohavebeenconvertedtoOAatsome
point.Thelatterusuallymeansthatthejournalmaystillpublishaparallelpaper
versionandalsoittypicallybundlesthearticlesinissues.Themethodologyfor
determiningbornversusconvertedaredescribedelsewhere(Solomon,Laakso&
Björk,2013).Table3presentstheaveragetimeinmonthssubmissionto
acceptanceandacceptancetopublicationforjournalscreatedasOAandthose
thatconvertedtoOA.Submissiontopublicationtimesappeartobeconsiderably
shorterforOAjournals,particularlythosethatwerecreatedasOAjournals.The
differenceswerereflectedinbothreceivedtoacceptedandacceptedto
publishedbutthegreatestdifferences,particularlyforthejournalscreatedOA
wereinacceptedtopublishedtimes.Thesedifferencesshouldbeconsidered
withcautionasthesamplesizesarefairlysmallandthepercentagesofjournals
withineachdisciplinearenotbalanced.
Wefelttheremaybeacorrelationbetweenpublicationtimesandthecitation
rateofthejournal.Sincecitationrateisatthelevelofthejournalratherthanthe
article,weaggregatedtothelevelofajournalusingaveragesforthetimesfrom
submissiontoacceptanceandfromacceptancetopublication.WeusedSNIPas
thecitationmeasurebecausethesestatisticsarenormalizedtoaccountfor
differencesincitationratesacrossdisciplines.ThePearsonproductmoment
correlationbetweenSNIPandsubmissiontoacceptanceandacceptanceto
publicationwere0.20and‐0.09respectively.Thecorrelationforthetimefrom
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submissiontoacceptancewithSNIPwassignificantlydifferentfromzerop<
0.02.
Table4containstheestimatedvariancecomponents1fordiscipline,sizegroup,
journalswithindiscipline/sizegroupandarticleswithinjournals.For
submissiontoacceptance,thevariationamongjournalsandarticlesaccounted
forthebulkofthevariation,mostlyintermsofarticleswithinjournals.For
acceptancetopublication,againthevariationwasalmostentirelyamong
journalsandarticlesnestedinjournals.Forthiscomponenthoweverthe
variationamongjournalsaccountedforthebulkofthevariation.
4.Discussion
Theresultsofthisstudyhavetobeinterpretedwithsomecaution.Themain
caveatisthatwewereonlyabletoincludedatafromjournalsthatpublishedthe
submissionandacceptancedateswhileinmostcasesthepublicationdatewas
inferredfromtheissueandestimatedasthemid‐pointofthepublicationperiod
fortheissue.Sincethedecisiontopublishthisinformationwasgenerally
consistentacrossallthejournalsofaparticularpublisher,onlythosepublishers
thatchoosetopublishsubmissionandacceptancedateareincludedinthestudy.
Thisresultedin54%ofthesamplebeingpublishedbythetwobiggest
publishersElsevierandSpringer/Kluwer.Thiswasnotourintentionbutwas
theresultofthelimitationnotedabove.Alistofthepublishersincludedinthe
studythenumberofjournalsfromeachpublisherincludediscontainedinthe
Appendix.
Therewerestrikingdifferencesbetweendisciplineswithbusiness/economics
havingaroundtwicethetotaldelaysubmissiontopublicationcomparedto
chemistry.Differenceswerealsofoundintermsofthesizeofthejournalthough
theywerefairlymodestwiththelargerjournalsappearingtobethemost
efficientbothintermsofthetimefromsubmissiontoacceptanceandin
publishingarticlesonceaccepted.
Openaccessjournals,particularlythosewhichwerecreatedasOAjournals
ratherthanwereconvertedfromsubscriptionappeartobeabletopublish
articlesconsiderablymorequicklythansubscriptionjournals.Thisinpartmay
reflectthefacttheyareelectroniconlyandtendtopublisharticlesastheyare
readyratherthanbundlingthemintoissues.Giventhesmallnumbersandthe
facttheOAjournalsarenotevenlydistributedacrossdisciplinesthesefinding
shouldbeinterpretedwithagreatdealofcaution.
Theanalysisofvarianceindicatesmostofthevariationinpublicationtimesisat
thelevelofindividualjournalsandarticles.Forthetimefromsubmissionto
1Thecomponentsforthefixedfactors,discipline,journalsizelevelandtheirinteractionarenot
truevariancecomponents.Sincetheyarefixedeffectstheyarenotstatisticalexpectationsbut
quadraticformsthatareaveragessimilarinnaturetoavariancecomponent.(Brennan,2001)
Sincethedistinctionisirrelevantforthepurposesofthisstudy,wewillrefertothesequadratic
formsasvariancecomponentsinthediscussionoftheresults.
12
acceptance,thebulkisamongarticles.Thisisnotsurprising.Therearemany
idiosyncraticfactorsthatinfluencethelengthofindividualarticlereviews.
Editorsmoreoftenthannotacceptmanuscriptspendingrevisionsandauthors
varygreatlyinhowquicklytheycompletetherevisions.Hencethelengthofthe
reviewprocessforaparticulararticlemayreflecttheactionsoftheauthorrather
thantheeditororreviewers.Alltheseandotherfactorsresultinsignificant
differencesinreviewtimesamongsubmissionsforaspecificjournal.
Therewasalsoconsiderablymorevariationamongjournalswithinadiscipline
andsizegroupthanamongdisciplinesandsizegroups.Thisindicatesthereare
realdifferencesinthisimportantaspectofpublishingthatarenotexplainedby
eithertheanomaliesofindividualreviewsorthecultureofreviewofdifferent
fields.Somejournalsjustappeartobefasterinconductingthereviewprocess.
Thislikelyinpartreflectsthelevelandnumberofcyclesofrevisionstypically
requiredbytheeditor.Italsomayreflecthowquicklymanuscriptsgooutfor
reviewandwhatexpectationtheeditororeditorialteamhasforhowlonga
reviewershouldtakeinreviewingamanuscript.
Forthetimefromacceptancetopublicationthevastmajorityofthevariationis
amongjournals.Again,thisdoesnotseemsurprising.Thebacklogsin
processingmanuscriptsthroughtypesettingandcopyediting,frequencyof
publicationandthebacklogduetopagelimitsiftheyexistwouldalllargely
impactonpublicationtimesatthejournallevel.
5.Conclusions
Webelievethistobethefirstbroadstudyofpublishingdelays,coveringallfields
ofscience.Ourstudyalsodiffersfromallearlierstudiesbyouruseofarandom
samplecoveringjournalsofallqualitylevels.Previousstudies,haveusuallyused
smallconveniencesamplesoftypicallytopjournalsintheirfields,which
introducesastrongbiastowardsjournalsthatmayincludelongreview
processes.Ourresultsare,nevertheless,notinconflictwiththeearlierstudies,
butinstead,addtothem.Themethodologywasverylaborintensiveanditwould
beveryusefulforfuturestudiesifpublishersincludedthedateofsubmission
andacceptanceasastandardpartoftheirarticleinformation.Thiswould
providealeveloftransparencyforpotentialauthorsastothedelaystheycould
expectinreviewandpublicationprocesseswhenconsideringwheretosubmit
theirmanuscripts.Itwouldalsoprovideastrongincentiveforjournalstospeed
uptheseprocesses.
Theaimofourstudywastoprovideoveralldataonreviewandpublishingtimes
acrossvariousfieldsofscience.Wedidnotattempttodeterminehowdelays
haveevolvedovertime.Someoftheearlierstudieshavedonethis,butwemade
aconsciouschoicetoconcentrateonthedifferencesbetweendisciplines,dueto
theresourceintensivenessofourmethod.Alongitudinalstudywouldbeagood
topicforafollow‐upstudy,andshouldideallygobackaround25years,tothe
timebeforeemail,websubmissionsystemsandelectronicpublishing.That
13
wouldontheotherhandalsoimplychallengesinfindingthedatawiththe
articles.
Itwouldbeveryusefultomakeamoredetailedstudyofwhydelaysdifferso
muchbetweendisciplines,Ourimpressionisthatthecleardifferencesamong
fieldshaveevolvedoverdecadesthroughthedevelopmentofintra‐disciplinary
socialnormsforwhatisexpectedfromascholarlyjournalinthefield.This
includeswhatisanacceptabledelayforinformingauthorsofreviewresultsand
acceptanceorrejectiondecisionsaswellastheprocessingandqueuingtime
onceamanuscriptisaccepted.Thisisinlinewiththeconclusionsofforinstance
Ellison(2000).Thesedifferencesinreviewandpublicationtimesmayalso
reflectthenatureofthedisciplines.Forexampleinrapidlydevelopingfields
whereseparategroupsofresearchersmayberacingtoachieveaparticular
breakthrough,thespeedofthepublicationprocesscandeterminewhichgroup
gainscreditforthebreakthroughaspublicationhasbecomethedefacto
determinerofwhogetsthecreditforamajorfinding.
Otherinterestingtopicsforfurtherstudieswouldbethedifferencesbetween
journalswithinadisciplineandarticleswithinjournals.Forsomeindividual
articlesthedelaytimescanbeexcessivelylong.Thedelayscanbeduetothe
authorstakingexcessivelylongtimesmakingrevisionsaftertheoriginalreview
cycle.Theycanalsobeduetoexcessivelylongreviewperiodsordelaysinthe
publicationprocess.Asfoundinthisstudy,mostofthevariationinsubmissionto
acceptancetimesisamongindividualmanuscriptswithinajournalwhilemostof
thevariationinacceptancetopublicationtimeisamongjournalswithina
discipline/sizegroup.Sincepublicationdelaysarebothdetrimentaltothe
careersofindividualscholarsandretardtherateatwhichscientificfields
advance,understandingandattemptingtominimizeunnecessarydelaysinthe
peer‐reviewandpublicationprocessisineveryone’sbestinterest.
OneofthereasonsforthepopularityofOAjournals,inadditiontothewider
dissemination,isthebeliefthattheyhavemuchfastersubmissiontopublication
times.Thisperceptionisoftenhighlightedinthepromotionalmaterialforfully
electronicOAjournals.ItappearsfromourverylimitedsampleofOAjournals
thatjournalswhichareonlydisseminatedindigitalformandpublisharticles
individuallyastheyarereadytendtohaveconsiderablyshortersubmissionto
publicationperiodswithmostofthedifferenceduetoshorteracceptanceto
publicationtimes.Afollow‐upstudycomparingsubscriptionjournalswithOA‐
journalswouldneedtofurthersplitupOA‐journalsintoanumberofsubgroups,
suchasmegajournals(PloSONEandcloses),journalsfromso‐calledpredatory
journalswithspamacademicswithemailspromisingveryrapidpublicationand
highqualityOAjournals.
Somecriticsofthecurrentsystemhavediscussedthealmostdefactostandard
journalpolicyofnotallowingauthorsthepossibilityofsubmittingtheir
manuscriptstootherjournalsinparallel(Torgersonetal2005),aslongasthe
articlehasnotbeendefinitelyrejected(Piron2001).Thispolicycanresultin
longdelaysinthepublicationprocessofarticlesrejectedinthefirst‐choice
journalpotentiallyrenderingtheresultsoftheresearchoutdatedandoflittleuse
14
bythetimeitisfinallypublished.Thepolicyisoftenjustifiedbysayingthatit
wouldbeveryinefficientandunfairtoeditorsandrefereesifthesamearticles
wouldberefereedinseveraljournalsatthesametime.Ontheotherhandexactly
thesamethinghappenswhenarticlesafterrejectionorauthorwithdrawalare
resubmittedtootherjournalsandnewreviewersgetinvolved.Interestingly
thereisonejournalcategorywherethisruleisnotenforced,lawjournals
publishedbyleadingUSuniversities,whichallowauthorstosubmitto
competingjournalssimultaneously.Althoughnoempiricalstudiescouldbe
foundofthepublishingdelayintheselawjournals,severalauthorsforexample
(Posner,2008)havepointedoutthatthedelaysaremuchshorterthaninother
fields.Ifpublishersaregoingtosticktothedemandthatauthorsrefrainfrom
multiplesimultaneoussubmissionsofamanuscriptthenitseemstous,thatthey
haveanobligationtomakethepublicationprocessasfastandefficientas
possible.
Electronicpublicationoffersarealpotentialforspeedingupthescholarly
journalpublishingprocess,butinordertoachievethisjournalshavetostop
publishingaparallelpaperversionandneedtoconverttopublishingarticlesin
anissue‐lessmodeastheybecomeavailable.Thisisexactlywhatmostborn
electronicjournalsdo,andastheirshareofpublishingincreases,average
publishingdelayswilltendtodecrease.
Acknowledgements:
WeareverygratefultoCharlottaBjörk,AleksiAaltonenandPatrikWellingfor
helpingoutwiththetediousworkofgatheringthedata.
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17
Figure1:AveragePublicationTimesinMonthsbyDiscipline
Figureisbasedon15journalsperdiscipline,5foreachsizegroup,20articlesperjournal
resultinginatotalof300articlesperdiscipline.
18
Figure2:AveragePublicationTimesinMonthsbyJournalSizeGroup
Figureisbasedon45journalspersizegroup,15foreachdiscipline,20articlesperjournal
resultinginatotalof900articlespersizegroup.
19
Table1.Previousstudiesconcerningpublicationdelaysinscholarlyjournals.
Stud
y
Included
journals
Period
studied
Discipline Delay(months)
AverageRange
Yohe1980
25journals1980 Economics 18.9
4.9–28.7
Trivedi1993 7journals
1986‐1990 Econometrics 22.8 19.7–31.4
Carroll2001
6journals 1994,1999 Statistics 22.3 15.0‐26.0
KlingandSwygart‐
Hobaugh2002
3socialscience
journals
1970/1980,
2000
Econ.,
management
23.8 17.0–29.4
KlingandSwygart‐
Hobaugh2002
3naturalscience
journals
1970/1980,
2000
Physics,
Chemistry
5.8 4.0–7.4
Hartmann1997
Onejournal 1970,1997 Atmospheric
Sciences
15.4
LuwelandMoed
1998
15journals 1992 Physical
sciences,Eng.
9.4
2.5‐17.0
Diospatonyietal
2001
10journals 1985‐1999 Analytical
chemistry
7.1 3.5–12.5
Raney1998
Onejournal 1997 Geoscience 21.8 11.5‐36.5
Yuetal2004
7journals 2002 Mainly
engineering
15.1 5.5–20.0
Amat2008 14journals 2004 Agriculture 11.8 6.2–17.2
Dongetal2006 28commercial,
SocietyandOA
2004 Biomedicine 6.3 3.0‐11.0
BjörkandTurk
2006
OneOAandtwo
conventional
2005 Civil
Engineering
14.5
6.7–18.9
Khosrowjerdietal
2011
26Iranianjournals 2009 Cross‐
disciplinary
17.3
5.8–34.6
20
Table2TimeSubmissiontoPublicationTotals
Months
Submitted to
Accepted
Months
Accepted to
Published
Months
Submitted to
Published
Mean 6.41 5.78 12.18
Std. Deviation 5.35 4.21 7.17
Std. Error of Mean* 0.10 0.08 0.14
Statisticsbasedon135Journals/2,700Articles
*TheStandarderrorsofthemeansareapproximateduetothelackofindependence
betweenarticlesinthesamejournal.
21
Table3TimeSubmissiontoPublicationforOAJournals
Created Open Access
Months
Submitted to
Accepted
Months
Accepted to
Published
Months
Submitted to
Published
Yes
Mean 4.17 1.80 5.97
Std. Deviation 3.08 1.56 3.77
Std. Error of Mean 0.26 0.13 0.32
Number 7 Journals / 140 Articles
No Mean 5.12 4.76 9.88
Std. Deviation 4.37 5.17 7.90
Std. Error of Mean 0.28 0.33 0.51
Number 12Journals/240Articles
Thestandarderrorsofthemeanareapproximateduetolackofindependence
amongarticlesinthesamejournal.
22
Table4EstimatedVarianceComponents
SubmittoAcceptAccepttoPublish
VariancePercentVariancePercent
Discipline3.4412% Discipline0.835%
JournalSize0.522% JournalSize0.312%
Journal8.4929% Journal12.8871%
Article16.4656% Article4.2023%
SizexDiscipline0.492% SizexDiscipline0.000%
Total29.41Total18.23
23
PublicationTimeinMonthsbyDiscipline
Discipline Months
Submitted to
Accepted
Months
Accepted to
Published
Months
Received to
Published
Chemistry Mean 4.73 4.18 8.91
Std. Deviation 5.46 3.60 7.30
Std. Error of Mean 0.32 0.21 0.42
Engineering Mean 5.00 4.30 9.30
Std. Deviation 3.68 3.06 5.29
Std. Error of Mean 0.21 0.18 0.31
Biomedicine Mean 4.65 4.82 9.47
Std. Deviation 3.47 4.11 5.18
Std. Error of Mean 0.20 0.24 0.30
Physics Mean 5.21 5.72 10.93
Std. Deviation 3.26 2.66 4.41
Std. Error of Mean 0.19 0.15 0.25
Earth Science Mean 5.74 5.96 11.70
Std. Deviation 4.80 4.66 7.24
Std. Error of Mean 0.28 0.27 0.42
Mathematics Mean 8.20 5.11 13.30
Std. Deviation 6.21 2.45 6.87
Std. Error of Mean 0.36 0.14 0.40
Social Science Mean 6.17 7.93 14.10
Std. Deviation 4.36 5.73 7.32
Std. Error of Mean 0.25 0.33 0.42
Arts and Letters Mean 7.21 7.00 14.21
Std. Deviation 5.26 5.38 7.71
Std. Error of Mean 0.30 0.31 0.44
Business/Economics Mean 10.75 6.96 17.70
Std. Deviation 7.15 3.19 7.52
Std. Error of Mean 0.41 0.18 0.43
All Journals Mean 6.41 5.78 12.18
Std. Deviation 5.35 4.21 7.17
Std. Error of Mean 0.10 0.08 0.14
Thereare15journals,5pereachsizegroupand20articlesperjournal
Standarderrorofthemeanisapproximateduetolackofindependenceamongarticlesina
journal.
24
NumberofJournalsfromEachPublisherIncludedintheStudy
Publisher Number Percent
American Chemical Society 1 0.8%
American Dairy Science Association 1 0.8%
American Physiological Society 1 0.8%
American Psychiatric Publishing, Inc. 1 0.8%
American Psychological Association 1 0.8%
American Society of Civil Engineers 1 0.8%
American Vacuum Society 1 0.8%
Arizona State University 1 0.8%
Australasian Association of Psychology and Philosophy 1 0.8%
Bentham Science Publishers 1 0.8%
BioMed Central 1 0.8%
Blackwell Publishing Inc. 3 2.3%
Butterworth Scientific Ltd. 1 0.8%
Cell Press 1 0.8%
Central Fisheries Research Institute 1 0.8%
Cognizant Communication Corp. 1 0.8%
Consejo Superior De Investigaciones Cientificas 2 1.5%
Copernicus Gesellschaften 1 0.8%
Electrochemical Society, Inc. 1 0.8%
Elsevier 61 46.6%
European Respiratory Society 1 0.8%
Geophysical Society of Finland 1 0.8%
Hindawi Publishing Corporation 1 0.8%
Institute for Ionics 1 0.8%
Institute of Physics Publishing 1 0.8%
Istituti Editoriali e Poligrafici Internazionali 1 0.8%
JAI Press 1 0.8%
Maik Nauka/Interperiodica Publishing 1 0.8%
Marcel Dekker Inc. 3 2.3%
Molecular Diversity Preservation International 1 0.8%
Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH 1 0.8%
Opragen Publications 1 0.8%
Oxford University Press 1 0.8%
Pan American Health Organization/Organizacion
Panamericana de la Salud 1 0.8%
Prolegomena: Journal of Philosophy 1 0.8%
Public Library of Science 1 0.8%
Raptor Research Foundation, Inc. 1 0.8%
Royal Society of Chemistry 2 1.5%
Royal Society of London 1 0.8%
SAGE Publications 1 0.8%
Springer Pub. Co., 14 10.7%
Taylor & Francis 1 0.8%
25
Universidad de los Andes 1 0.8%
Universidad de Murcia 1 0.8%
Universidad Nacional de Colombia 1 0.8%
Universidade Estadual Paulista 1 0.8%
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 1 0.8%
University of the Aegean 1 0.8%
Versita (Central European Science Publishers) 1 0.8%
Wayne State University Press 1 0.8%
Wiley-Blackwell 2 1.5%
PublishernamesretrievedfromSCImagoJournal&CountryRankwebsite.
http://www.scimagojr.com/