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Comparing the fatality risks in United States transportation across modes and over time

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the transportation fatality risk in the United States. The analysis is in two parts. The first part compares the relative risks of the different modes based on data for the decade from 2000 to 2009. The second part is a time-series analysis for each mode using annual data from 1975 to 2010. By almost any measure, transportation is considerably safer now than it was in the mid 1970s. The improvement is especially noticeable for commercial modes such as aviation, railroads and maritime. Even the risks from private highway driving have halved during the past thirty-five years.

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... These rules establish the standards necessary for the conduct of all aviation activities, including the operation of airports, the use of airspace, and flight and ground operations (Çoban, 2022;Siregar, 2019). Safety rules in the aviation sector emerge as a dominant force guiding the corporate policies and commercial activities of airline operators globally (Savage, 2013). The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which guides aviation activities worldwide, defines safety as a state where the probability of causing harm to individuals and property is kept at an acceptable level or below, with risks continuously identified and managed. ...
... Commercial air travel is now perceived as the safest and most secure mode of transportation. Still, safety practices in aviation continue to evolve (Savage, 2013). ...
Article
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Just Culture, a sub-dimension of safety culture, has been a prominent and debated topic in aviation safety in recent years. Just culture signifies a work environment where employees are motivated to provide essential safety-related information, but a clear distinction must be made between acceptable and unacceptable behaviours. The aim of this study is to examine the fundamental characteristics of just culture in the aviation sector. The phenomenology method, one of the qualitative research designs, has been adopted in the study. Purposeful sampling was used in the selection of participants, with the sample consisting of 78 students studying in the aircraft maintenance department of a public university in Turkey. The metaphor method was used to collect data in the research. The data collected from participants were subjected to content analysis, leading to the identification of the themes of the study. Content analysis revealed five fundamental themes that highlight the characteristics of just culture in the aviation sector. In this context, “providing balance and trust, being based on mutual relations, having systematic functioning, being contradictory, and being unique” were perceived as the core features of just culture. In the research, the metaphor most frequently associated with just culture was primarily the scale, followed by the utopia metaphor. Despite being an important managerial approach for aviation safety, the observation of some negatives in practice is a significant finding of the study. It is anticipated that the research will contribute uniquely to the literature on aviation safety and just culture
... It has been found that only 10% of people choose to take public transport when they feel unsafe [23], and people's perception of the safety of public transport directly influences their choice of public transport [24]. Public transport safety is a more significant concern than crime on public transport, and can reduce the likelihood of traffic accidents to a certain extent [25,26]. The smoothness of public transport operations is an essential factor in passenger satisfaction. ...
... Based on the dimensions of comfort, safety, price, punctuality, etc., the study identifies the evaluation dimensions of each of the three modes of public transport according to their characteristics, such as the high seating density of public transport in Macau. The study found that safety (including smoothness and in-vehicle safety tips) is an essential factor affecting passenger satisfaction, which is more evident in the case of public transport passengers, and no significant difference was found in the comparison between radio taxis and taxis, which is consistent with existing studies [26,53]. This may be because, unlike in other regions, Macau's bus drivers drive vehicles in a small area with narrow and winding streets. ...
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The sustainable development of urban transport is the key to sustainable urban development. This study analyses and identifies the evaluation indicators affecting Macau’s transport, and analyses the relationship between the relevant evaluation indicators and passenger satisfaction, thus contributing to the improvement and the sustainable development of Macau’s public transport services. This study uses a questionnaire to collect data. Based on the current situation of Macau’s social groups, the mainland students in Macau who were selected as the target group are significantly different from residents and tourists in Macau; their needs and perceptions of public transport are more intense. This group’s needs and perceptions of public transport are significantly different from those of residents and tourists. The set indicators of satisfaction with public transport in Macau reflect them. After analyzing and determining the evaluation indicators, structural equation modeling was applied to establish the structural models of Macau’s three public transport services. Finally, the shortcomings of the three public transport services were reflected through the standardized coefficient weights and passenger satisfaction. The study results show that the seating arrangement and smoothness of travel of Macau’s public transport services need to be improved, and the dial-a-ride service’s price setting and waiting time need to be improved. The price setting, convenience of hailing, and payment method of the taxi service need to be improved. In contrast, overall, the satisfaction level of the dial-a-ride service is significantly higher than that of the taxi service. Therefore, the findings of the study have important policy implications for relevant policymakers, who should not only focus on optimizing daily operations but, more importantly, on improving the shortcomings mentioned above, which are of great value in enhancing the passengers’ perception of public transport in Macau and are also crucial to achieving the sustainable development of public transport in Macau.
... In general, a larger, heavier vehicle will have longer braking distances, larger blindspots, be more difficult to navigate on complex urban streets, and have greater impact energy in the event of a collision. Heavier vehicles tend to be safer for their drivers in the event of a crash, but also increase the risk of injury and death for other road users, especially pedestrians and cyclists (Anderson and Auffhammer, 2014;Li, 2012;Savage, 2013;Schmitt, 2020). Although the large majority of traffic fatalities involve personal vehicles, commercial heavy trucks have a relatively higher fatality rate per vehicle mile, and also incur extremely high costs when crashes occur (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration [FMCSA], 2007;Savage, 2013). ...
... Heavier vehicles tend to be safer for their drivers in the event of a crash, but also increase the risk of injury and death for other road users, especially pedestrians and cyclists (Anderson and Auffhammer, 2014;Li, 2012;Savage, 2013;Schmitt, 2020). Although the large majority of traffic fatalities involve personal vehicles, commercial heavy trucks have a relatively higher fatality rate per vehicle mile, and also incur extremely high costs when crashes occur (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration [FMCSA], 2007;Savage, 2013). In fact, in the United States, commercial truck drivers have some of the highest workplace fatality rates of any occupation (Bureau of Labor Statistics [BLS], 2021), and the nature of the occupation means that commercial truck drivers have notably high rates of health conditions that are associated with an elevated crash risk, such as sleep apnea, hypertension, and diabetes (Abu Dabrh et al., 2014). ...
Article
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Background: Driving is a complex task which requires numerous cognitive and sensorimotor skills to be performed safely. On-road driver evaluation can identify unsafe drivers but can also be expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Poor performance on off-road measures of cognition and sensorimotor control has been shown to predict on-road performance in privately-licensed light vehicle drivers, but commercial drivers have not yet been studied despite such vehicles generally being larger and heavier, thus increasing risks from unsafe driving. Method: Commercially-licensed truck, bus, and light vehicle drivers undertook the tablet-based Vitals cognitive screening tool, which measures reaction time, judgement, memory, and sensorimotor control, and also undertook an on-road driving evaluation using their vehicle. Accuracy and reliability of the Vitals tasks on predicting road test outcomes were investigated using a trichotomous classifier (pass, fail, borderline), and task performance was analyzed depending on vehicle type and road test outcome. Results: Performance on the Vitals tasks predicted on-road performance across all vehicle types. Participants who failed their on-road evaluation also demonstrated lower success on the Judgement task, fewer correctly replicated shapes on the Memory task, and less time on-target in the Control task compared to those who passed. Conclusion: Performance on cognitive and sensorimotor tasks is a good predictor of future driving performance and driver safety for commercially-licensed drivers. Regardless of vehicle type, stakeholders can use cognitive measures from the Vitals assessment to identify an increased driving risk. Use of the Vitals as a screening tool prior to on-road evaluation can benefit both drivers and evaluators.
... In general, a larger, heavier vehicle will have longer braking distances, larger blindspots, be more difficult to navigate on complex urban streets, and have greater impact energy in the event of a collision. Heavier vehicles tend to be safer for their drivers in the event of a crash, but also increase the risk of injury and death for other road users, especially pedestrians and cyclists (Anderson & Auffhammer, 2014;Li., 2012;Savage, 2013;Schmitt, 2020). ...
... Although the large majority of traffic fatalities involve personal vehicles, commercial heavy trucks have a relatively higher fatality rate per vehicle mile, and also incur extremely high costs when crashes occur (FMCSA, 2007;Savage, 2013). In fact, in the United States, commercial truck drivers have some of the highest workplace fatality rates of any occupation (BoLS, 2021), and the nature of the occupation means that commercial truck drivers have notably high rates of health conditions that are associated with an elevated crash risk, such as sleep apnea, hypertension, and diabetes (Abu Dabrh, 2014). ...
Preprint
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Background Driving is a complex task which requires numerous cognitive and sensorimotor skills to be performed safely. On-road driver evaluation can identify unsafe drivers but can also be expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Poor performance on off-road measures of cognition and sensorimotor control has been shown to predict on-road performance in privately-licensed light vehicle drivers, but commercial drivers have not yet been studied despite such vehicles generally being larger and heavier, thus increasing risks from unsafe driving. Method Commercially-licensed truck, bus, and light vehicle drivers undertook the tablet-based Vitals cognitive screening tool, which measures reaction time, judgement, memory, and sensorimotor control, and also undertook an on-road driving evaluation using their vehicle. Accuracy and reliability of the Vitals tasks on predicting road test outcomes were investigated using a trichotomous classifier (pass, fail, borderline), and task performance was analyzed depending on vehicle type and road test outcome. Results Performance on the Vitals tasks predicted on-road performance across all vehicle types. Participants who failed their on-road evaluation also demonstrated lower success on the Judgement task, fewer correctly replicated shapes on the Memory task, and less time on-target in the Control task compared to those who passed. Conclusion Performance on cognitive and sensorimotor tasks is a good predictor of future driving performance and driver safety for commercially-licensed drivers. Regardless of vehicle type, stakeholders can use cognitive measures from the Vitals assessment to identify an increased driving risk. Use of the Vitals as a screening tool prior to on-road evaluation can benefit both drivers and evaluators.
... Air transport has been increasingly important as means of transportation in both developed and undeveloped countries [1,2]. Although associated to relatively high costs, air transport is generally safer and faster in comparison to other means of transportation [3,4] particularly to connect isolated rural areas and islands with urbanized areas, or to connect mutually distant locations such as cities in different continents. Unfortunately, air transport also contributes for the efficient spread of infectious diseases over large spatial regions [5,6]. ...
Preprint
Air transport systems are highly dynamic at temporal scales from minutes to years. This dynamic behavior not only characterizes the evolution of the system but also affect the system's functioning. Understanding the evolutionary mechanisms is thus fundamental in order to better design optimal air transport networks that benefits companies, passengers and the environment. In this review, we briefly present and discuss the state-of-art on time-evolving air transport networks. We distinguish the structural analysis of sequences of network snapshots, ideal for long-term network evolution (e.g. annual evolution), and temporal paths, preferred for short-term dynamics (e.g. hourly evolution). We emphasize that most previous research focused on the first modeling approach (i.e. long-term) whereas only a few studies look at high-resolution temporal paths. We conclude the review highlighting that much research remains to be done, both to apply already available methods and to develop new measures for temporal paths on air transport networks. In particular, we identify that the study of delays, network resilience and optimization of resources (aircraft and crew) are critical topics that can benefit of temporal network analysis.
... Анализ аварийных ситуаций на транспорте [9] однозначно показывает, что несмотря на несопоставимую мощность и скорость, авиатранспорт и железнодорожный транспорт в несколько раз безопаснее автомобилей. Огромную и безопасную, по меркам автомобильного транспорта, скорость и мощность самолетам и поездам позволяет достигать выделенная инфраструктура: железнодорожные пути, вокзалы, аэропорты и воздушные коридоры. ...
Conference Paper
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Artificial intelligence systems that govern corporations must work effectively not only with objects in the material world, but also in the legal field. “Since at least Leibniz, the dream of eliminating humans from the spiral of legal reasoning has captured the imagination of philosophers, lawyers, and (more recently) computer scientists.” Historically, laws were created and enforced by people. With the development of artificial intelligence technologies, laws will be enforced by machines.
... практики формулирования дополнительного операционного контекста для автономных систем ИИ в дельнейшем могут быть обобщены и использованы в законодательной деятельности. Можно было бы предположить, что физические лица также предпочтут использовать более точные формулировки, созданные для автономных систем, но физические лица не смогут обработать необходимый объем данных.ЗаключениеВ настоящее время законодатели, разработчики, и исследователи в области искусственного интеллекта стоят перед выбором: нужно ли создавать специальные условия для функционирования автономных систем искусственного интеллекта или они могут функционировать в том же операционном контексте, что обычные люди.Иными словами, можно ли рассматривать автономные системы как автомобиль, который может использоваться на автотрассе общего пользования, или это скорее поезд, самолет, или ракета, и для эффективного использования таких систем нужна выделенная инфраструктура.Анализ аварийных ситуаций на транспорте[29] однозначно показывает, что несмотря на несопоставимую мощность и скорость, авиатранспорт и железнодорожный транспорт в несколько раз безопаснее автомобилей. Огромную и безопасную, по меркам автомобильного транспорта, скорость и мощность самолетам и поездам позволяет достигать выделенная инфраструктура: железнодорожные пути, вокзалы, аэропорты и воздушные коридоры. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
The article proposes a method for forming a dedicated operational context in course of development and implementation of autonomous corporate management systems based on example of autonomous systems for a board of directors. The significant part of the operational context for autonomous company management systems is the regulatory and legal environment within which corporations operate. In order to create a special operational context for autonomous artificial intelligence systems, the wording of local regulatory documents can be simultaneously presented in two versions: for use by people and for use by autonomous systems. In this case, the artificial intelligence system will get a well-defined operational context that allows such a system to perform functions within the required standards. Local regulations that provide for the specifics of the joint work of individuals and autonomous artificial intelligence systems can create the basis of the relevant legislation governing the development and implementation of autonomous systems.
... The tendency to exaggerate the risks of technology to the point of overshadowing its benefits is a common phenomenon, as demonstrated in the widespread fear of air travel compared to car travel. Despite the fact that, in terms of deaths per 100 million miles, cars are 635 times more dangerous than commercial airplanes [21], a significant number of individuals still harbor a greater fear of flying. ...
Article
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Hydrogen has great growth potential due to its green, carbon-neutral nature, but public acceptance is low due to negative perceptions of the dangers associated with hydrogen energy. Safety concerns, particularly related to its flammability and explosiveness, are an obstacle to hydrogen energy policy. In South Korea, recent hydrogen-related explosions have exacerbated these concerns, undermining public confidence. This study developed public relations (PR) strategies to manage risk perception and promote hydrogen energy acceptance by analyzing the opinions of government officials and experts using SWOT factors, the TOWS matrix, and the analytic hierarchy process. The findings highlight the importance of addressing weaknesses and threats in PR efforts. Key weaknesses include Korea’s technological lag and the low localization of core hydrogen technologies, both of which hinder competitiveness and negatively impact public perception of hydrogen energy. Notable threats include deteriorating energy dependency and expanding global carbon regulations. This information can be used to influence attitudes and foster public acceptance of hydrogen energy policies. Emphasizing weaknesses and threats may result in more effective PR strategies, even if they do not directly address the primary concerns of scientific experts. The persuasive insights identified in this study can support future policy communication and PR strategies.
... Analysis of emergency situations in transport [29] clearly shows that despite the incomparable power and speed, air transport and railway transport are several times safer than cars. Huge and safe speed and power for planes and trains are achieved by dedicated infrastructure: railways, stations, airports and air corridors. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
The significant part of the operational context for autonomous company management systems is the regulatory and legal environment in which corporations operate. In order to create a dedicated operational context for autonomous artificial intelligence systems, the wording of local regulatory documents can be simultaneously presented in two versions: for use by people and for use by autonomous systems. In this case, the artificial intelligence system will get a well-defined operational context that allows such a system to perform functions within the required standards. Local regulations that provide basis for the joint work of individuals and autonomous artificial intelligence systems can form the grounds for the relevant legislation governing the development and implementation of autonomous systems.
... Analysis of emergency situations in transport [29] clearly shows that despite the incomparable power and speed, air transport and railway transport are several times safer than cars. Huge and safe speed and power for planes and trains are achieved by dedicated infrastructure: railways, stations, airports and air corridors. ...
Article
Full-text available
The significant part of the operational context for autonomous company management systems is the regulatory and legal environment in which corporations operate. In order to create a dedicated operational context for autonomous artificial intelligence systems, the wording of local regulatory documents can be simultaneously presented in two versions: for use by people and for use by autonomous systems. In this case, the artificial intelligence system will get a well-defined operational context that allows such a system to perform functions within the required standards. Local regulations that provide basis for the joint work of individuals and autonomous artificial intelligence systems can form the grounds for the relevant legislation governing the development and implementation of autonomous systems[1].
... Analysis of emergency situations in transport (Savage, 2013) clearly shows that despite the incomparable power and speed, air transport and railway transport are several times safer than cars. ...
Presentation
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In order to create a dedicated operational context for autonomous AI systems, the internal policies can be presented simultaneously in two versions: for use by humans and for use by autonomous systems.
... 11 This is 16.93 times lower than cars, which have a fatality rate per billion passenger miles of 7.28. 11 The enhanced safety of rail transit can be attributed to comprehensive safety standards and employee training, layers of high-tech safety features, and resilience to severe weather conditions. When comparing railway travel to road travel, railway tracks create a controlled environment that minimizes the risk of collisions with other vehicles and pedestrians, while cars are subject to human error and variable road conditions. ...
Conference Paper
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The Alberta-Montana Passenger Rail Feasibility Report provides a literature review, analysis, and recommendations aimed at establishing a preliminary understanding of a passenger rail route between Calgary, Alberta and Livingston, Montana, with nine stations in between. The proposed Calgary-Livingston route utilizes existing freight railroads, operated by CPKC and BNSF, to be converted to mixed-use railroads that support both freight and passenger. This report serves as a foundational step for further project development and represents an important piece to addressing the pressing transportation needs of the regions. As an effort to enhance regional connectivity and accommodate a growing population and economy, this project holds substantial promise for economic development, environmental sustainability, and social equity. This report begins with a brief background of the history of railroads in Alberta and Montana and the rationale behind establishing a passenger rail service between Calgary, AB and Livingston, MT. The report analysis details a market assessment to demonstrate demand and potential ridership revenue, identifies possible funding partners and opportunities, and outlines federal, state, and provincial legislation related to the rail initiative. To conclude, this report recommends a framework for the future of the Alberta-Montana Passenger Rail project to build support and continue its development.
... Analysis of emergency situations in transport (Savage, 2013) clearly shows that despite the incomparable power and speed, air transport and railway transport are several times safer than cars. ...
Preprint
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The dedicated operational context for AI systems
... A similar trend was found by Litman in a 2014 international study (Litman, 2014). However, public transit is a relatively safe mode of travel, with fatality rates for car occupants being 15 times greater than for transit users (Savage, 2013). Therefore, it is fairly intuitive that more of a safe travel mode would make a city safer. ...
... Accident investigation reports in the 1980s and 1990s accelerated the investigation of the relationships between airline safety management processes and accidents (Moshansky, 1992) and modern safety management approaches contributed to the improvement of safety practices in aviation activities increasingly especially after 2010s (Inan and Bükec, 2021). These safety practices have made air travel "the most reliable form of travel" today (Savage, 2013). The Safety Management System (SMS) aims to develop and continuously improve measures by determining risks and disruptions with a systematic perspective before incidents and accidents occur (Maurino, 2017). ...
Article
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The aim of this research is to examine the factors affecting the concept of just culture in airline companies in the light of literature review. In the study, the phenomenological research method, one of the qualitative research designs, was preferred. The sample of the research consists of 17 experienced employees working in three big airline companies in Turkey. Interview method was used to collect data in the research. The data collected from the participants were subjected to content analysis and the themes of the research were reached. As a result of the content analysis, the factors affecting just culture in airline companies were gathered under five themes. These themes are; factors related to organizational structure and processes, factors related to managers, factors related to employees, factors related to error and violation distinction, and factors preventing just culture. These factors were classified as major, enhancer, and prospective factors by the researchers in terms of their effects on just culture. It is thought that the research will make an original contribution to just culture literature.
... Throughout history rail transport has proven to be quite safe. It is much more probable, as studies like [1] have shown, to suffer a fatal accident for instance when traveling by car, but also less probable to die while traveling by plane. The aforementioned article postulates that the risk of death is 17 times higher for road transport by car then for rail transport (7,28 deaths per 1 billion passenger miles for the transport by car opposed to 0,43 deaths per 1 billion passenger miles for rail transport). ...
Article
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Rail transport is one of the safest means of transport. However, there have been in history some accidents with high death tolls, which could have been prevented had specific train protection systems been in place or had specific courses of action been correctly carried out. This article aims to present several railway accidents in history and the systems or actions which could have prevented them, respectively that were or should have been introduced after the inquiries that have taken place after these accidents.
... Barnett (2020) conducted a statistical analysis comparing aviation safety in different countries and regions of the world. Savage (2013) and Liu and Moini (2015) investigated and compared the fatality rates of different transport modes in the United States. Hermans et al. (2009) andShen et al. (2020) benchmarked highway safety among multiple European countries using data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. ...
Article
Rail safety is a universal goal that every railroad system pursues. Comparing rail safety performance allows the identification of relative system strengths and weaknesses and potential adaptation of risk mitigation strategies from one railroad system to another. Achieving this requires comparable data from the railroad systems to be analyzed that are available and with high resolution so that fair comparisons can be established. This paper presented an international benchmarking framework for railroad safety-related data system and safety performance. A novel and standardized methodology was developed to collect railroad safety-related data sources among different countries and compare their data completeness and resolution. Six countries with high data availability and transparency were selected to demonstrate the benchmarking framework. High-level rail safety performance measures were derived and compared among these countries. The results showed that there are inconsistencies in the resolution of different types of rail safety data among the six countries. The countries that had the lowest and highest overall accident rate, grade crossing incident rate, and other safety performance metrices were identified. This research provided valuable insights into how railroad operators can improve their railroad safety-related data system and safety performance by benchmarking with other railroad operators to make the most efficient use of risk mitigation resources. The study also highlighted the importance of providing publicly available railroad safety-related data for the mutual benefits of overall safety of railroad systems around the world.
... Bouaoun et al. [14] showed the risk of being killed was 20 to 32 times higher for motorized two-wheeler users than for car occupants. When compared with the U.S., motorcyclists had a fatality rate per passenger mile 29 times that for automobiles and light trucks [17]. In Australia, travel by motorcycle is by far the least safe mode of travel, with fatality and serious injury rates approximately 30 times those for travel by car [15]. ...
Article
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Background Previous research showed differences in the exposure to risk from using different modes of transport and that modal choice can significantly impact road safety outcomes. Though, a modal shift to a safer mode is not commonly discussed as part of road safety strategies. Aim This study aimed to explore the perspectives of transport policymakers about the role of safety in modal choice and if it can be one of the main factors for modal choice and shift. Method Seven semi-structured interviews were conducted with transport experts from government (n = 5) and private (n = 2) organisations in the state of Victoria. Interview transcripts were analysed using a thematic approach to identify the key perspectives of the experts. Results Overall, the analyses indicated uncertainty of the ability to use safety in modal choice as a road safety strategy and identified two main issues; 1) the perceived limited role that safety plays in people’s modal choice, and 2) that safety is perceived to be a barrier to modal choice and modal shift towards public and active travel. Experts suggested that when considering transport modes other factors such as convenience, availability, speed, cost, trip purpose and income are more influential than safety in modal choice. They also suggested that safety might play a role within the chosen mode, but not in choosing between modes, such as considering safety features when purchasing a car after deciding to drive a car. It was also stated that safety could act as a barrier preventing people from choosing sustainable transport modes of public transport and active travel. Conclusions Theoretically, it is argued that safety and mobility cannot be traded against each other, and that mobility becomes a function of safety, not vice-versa. However, our findings indicated that the transport experts did not believe that safety is the main factor in the modal choice process. Transport experts believed users choose their mode of transport mainly to achieve mobility benefits without necessarily considering how safe is their choice as a differentiator factor. While the shift to a safer mode of transport would help improve road safety outcomes, further investigations are needed to inform how can we influence the consideration of safety as the main factor in modal choice and removing barriers to using the relatively safest available mode of transport.
... Increases in automation and autonomy of aircraft has been one of the reasons why commercial aircraft accident rates have steadily decreased over the past few decades [55,56], such that commercial aviation is now the safest mode of vehicular transport [57]. The commercial availability of open-source autopilots has revolutionized the RPAS industry, increasing the capabilities of various platforms and making them easier to fly. ...
Article
The aviation industry has seen a lot of innovation over the last 125 years. Advancements such as transatlantic flight and the development of avionics technologies and composite materials have changed how we think about what the future will hold. Advanced aviation technologies such as remotely piloted aircraft systems (i.e., "drones") and urban air mobility may be the next revolution in the aviation industry. While many in the aviation industry look forward to greater inclusion of these technologies, the public may have a different perspective. This review aims to examine the factors that may influence one's perception of advanced aviation technologies. First, an overview of the technologies is presented to categorize the different types of drones and how they are used, followed by a discussion on the principles of technological adoption. Next, data from past studies investigating the public perception of drones and air taxis was collected and analyzed to discover if any patterns exist in terms of overall acceptance or mission preferences, and to determine the root causes of hesitancy towards this emerging technology. The trends suggest that drones have become increasingly accepted as public awareness rises, and missions that support the common good are viewed more favourably than commercial uses such as package delivery or air taxi services. The major obstacles include the perceived level of risk, pre-existing judgement as to the technological reliability, as well as the lack of perceived benefits when compared to existing technologies. Each of these topics are discussed and finally, a roadmap towards public acceptance is presented, incorporating the viewpoints of the public, drone users, and regulatory authorities. Together, this review discusses the current state of the field and what must be done to better integrate advanced aviation technologies into everyday life.
... Aircraft traveling is one of the safest transportation modes, capable of carrying many passengers and considerable cargo loads for long distances [1], [2]. The risk of death per passenger boarding has been falling consistently over the decades [3]. ...
Conference Paper
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Aircraft visual inspections, or General Visual Inspections (GVIs), aim at finding damages or anomalies on the exterior and interior surfaces of the aircraft, which might compromise its operation, structure, or safety when flying. Visual inspection is part of the activities of aircraft Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO). Specialists perform quality inspections to identify problems and determine the type and importance that they will report. This process is time-consuming, subjective, and varies according to each individual. The time that an aircraft stays grounded without flight clearance means financial losses. The main goal of this work is to advance the state-of-the-art of defect detection on aircraft exterior with deep learning and computer vision. We investigate improvements to the accuracy of dent detection. Besides, we investigate new classes of identified defects, such as scratches. We also plan to demonstrate that it is possible to develop a complete system to automate the visual inspection of aircraft exterior using images of the aircraft acquired by drones. We will use deep neural networks for the detection and segmentation of defective regions. This system will aid in the elimination of subjectivity caused by human errors and shorten the time required to inspect an aircraft, bringing benefits to its safety, maintenance, and operation.
... Flying has clear 'practical' dimensions: First, while air-travel can be defined as an integrative practice in its own right, with its own sets of 'understandings, know-how and teleo-affective structures' (Warde, 2005: 150), it importantly forms part of and connects a wide range of other practices. Second, and relatedly, because air-travel allows for cheaper, longer (Pels, 2008), safer (Savage, 2013), and more frequent (Storme et al., 2017) and efficient travels, it opens up new avenues for carbon-intensive lifestyles and practices-as well as practice geographies-which in turn reinforce the dependence on flying. Moreover, as Adey et al. (2007: 774) have noted, much like how driving a car has become a dominant means of personal mobility, flying has become the 'normal international mode of travelling'. ...
Book
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This open access book seeks to understand why we consume as we do, how consumption changes, and why we keep consuming more and more, despite the visible damage we are doing to the planet. The chapters cover both the stubbornness of unsustainable consumption patterns in affluent societies and the drivers of rapidly increasing consumption in emerging economies. They focus on consumption patterns with the largest environmental footprints, including energy, housing, and mobility and engage in sophisticated ways with the theoretical frontiers of the field of consumption research, in particular on the ‘practice turn’ that has come to dominate the field in recent decades. This book maps out what we know about consumption, questions what we take for granted, and points us in new directions for better understanding—and changing—unsustainable consumption patterns.
... Flying has clear 'practical' dimensions: First, while air-travel can be defined as an integrative practice in its own right, with its own sets of 'understandings, know-how and teleo-affective structures' (Warde, 2005: 150), it importantly forms part of and connects a wide range of other practices. Second, and relatedly, because air-travel allows for cheaper, longer (Pels, 2008), safer (Savage, 2013), and more frequent (Storme et al., 2017) and efficient travels, it opens up new avenues for carbon-intensive lifestyles and practices-as well as practice geographies-which in turn reinforce the dependence on flying. Moreover, as Adey et al. (2007: 774) have noted, much like how driving a car has become a dominant means of personal mobility, flying has become the 'normal international mode of travelling'. ...
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This chapter analyses the trajectory of the Indian small car, the Tata Nano. When launched by the manufacturer Tata Motors as a new Indian ‘people’s car’ in 2008, the Nano was widely predicted to revolutionise automobility in India. Yet it barely made an impact on the Indian car market, and production was phased out just a decade after the first Nano had hit the Indian roads. By analysing the changing popular representations and symbolic imaginaries that attach to the car as a means to mobility and an object of identity and social status, we argue that the Nano failed neither because it was mediocre, nor because it remained economically out of reach for most Indians. Rather, its insertion into the lower ranks of a powerful status hierarchy of identity-defining objects precluded it from adequately tapping into new and hegemonic forms of middle-class consumer aspiration in ‘New India’, thereby leaving the people’s car without ‘a people’.
... Flying has clear 'practical' dimensions: First, while air-travel can be defined as an integrative practice in its own right, with its own sets of 'understandings, know-how and teleo-affective structures' (Warde, 2005: 150), it importantly forms part of and connects a wide range of other practices. Second, and relatedly, because air-travel allows for cheaper, longer (Pels, 2008), safer (Savage, 2013), and more frequent (Storme et al., 2017) and efficient travels, it opens up new avenues for carbon-intensive lifestyles and practices-as well as practice geographies-which in turn reinforce the dependence on flying. Moreover, as Adey et al. (2007: 774) have noted, much like how driving a car has become a dominant means of personal mobility, flying has become the 'normal international mode of travelling'. ...
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The goal of consumption—and hence of economics—is wellbeing. Whilst useful for some purposes, orthodox tools such as GNP tell us little meaningful about our wellbeing, or that of the planet. Newer frameworks such as Ecological Economics or Quality of Life indices introduce qualitative criteria, embracing a much broader view of costs and benefits. However, they still leave consumers without tools to actually guide and frame decision making. Looking beyond the material, psychological, cultural and other forces underlying consumption, this chapter offers tools to enable those—consumers or policy makers—who have the intent to move towards sustainable choices. However, to do so we need to integrate all three facets of ecology, economy and society within a holistic framework. Basic material needs like food or shelter are quantifiable; qualities such as friendships or liberty are not. Consumption decisions involve both objective and subjective factors, quantities and qualities, facts and values. Can these antinomic categories be integrated in one framework for evaluation and decision making? We must also consider the individual, the collective and the global. This is what “value mapping” offers; a framework to evaluate and compare choices; an integral approach to wellbeing and consumption. It addresses both experts and laypeople, and is visually intuitive as well as easy to apply either in simple versions or in detailed forms not described here. What kinds of consumption can give maximum wellbeing with minimum negative impacts? The Value Maps presented here are practical tools to address this question.
... Flying has clear 'practical' dimensions: First, while air-travel can be defined as an integrative practice in its own right, with its own sets of 'understandings, know-how and teleo-affective structures' (Warde, 2005: 150), it importantly forms part of and connects a wide range of other practices. Second, and relatedly, because air-travel allows for cheaper, longer (Pels, 2008), safer (Savage, 2013), and more frequent (Storme et al., 2017) and efficient travels, it opens up new avenues for carbon-intensive lifestyles and practices-as well as practice geographies-which in turn reinforce the dependence on flying. Moreover, as Adey et al. (2007: 774) have noted, much like how driving a car has become a dominant means of personal mobility, flying has become the 'normal international mode of travelling'. ...
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Electricity plays a vital role in everyday life. However, electricity-dependent practices are often taken for granted, and the complex underlying infrastructure tends to be invisible—until power supply is disrupted. Drawing on qualitative interviews with rural Norwegian households, this chapter takes practices as the starting point for examining how daily life changes during power outages and how households experience the consequences of such outages. The aim is to use households’ perspectives to understand the consequences of power outages and show how disruption influences relations between infrastructures, practices, customers and providers. Using the three elements of practice—materials, competences, meanings—I demonstrate how power failures temporarily break the linkages between elements in electricity-dependent practices, and how households forge linkages between other items and technologies, embodied knowledge and competences, and new meanings, in order to continue daily life. This re-assembling of elements in practices demonstrates the complexity of power-outage consequences and explains how rural Norwegian households can cope relatively well with lengthy power outages. The chapter also sheds light on the difficulties of trying to reduce consequences to monetary terms. Rather than worrying about the economic costs of power outages, households focus on maintaining their daily routines. The ability to adapt during outages demonstrates a relatively high level of flexibility, but this does not mean that households do not value having secure power supplies.
... Flying has clear 'practical' dimensions: First, while air-travel can be defined as an integrative practice in its own right, with its own sets of 'understandings, know-how and teleo-affective structures' (Warde, 2005: 150), it importantly forms part of and connects a wide range of other practices. Second, and relatedly, because air-travel allows for cheaper, longer (Pels, 2008), safer (Savage, 2013), and more frequent (Storme et al., 2017) and efficient travels, it opens up new avenues for carbon-intensive lifestyles and practices-as well as practice geographies-which in turn reinforce the dependence on flying. Moreover, as Adey et al. (2007: 774) have noted, much like how driving a car has become a dominant means of personal mobility, flying has become the 'normal international mode of travelling'. ...
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This chapter assesses the contribution that economics can make to help us understand consumer behaviour and, if necessary, to try and change it. Economic theory of consumer behaviour is sophisticated and rigorous, but very limited. It excludes from consideration many of the factors which are well-recognised by other social sciences as being important. These limitations stem largely from the standard model of homo economicus . Economists are not unaware of this problem, but it is difficult to resolve it: to establish models that are tractable—for example incorporating the idea of interdependent preferences. But even simple economic theory, in which income and price are the main explanatory factors of consumer behaviour, provides the basis for potentially very effective policy instruments. If incomes fall, consumption is indeed reduced; and taxes and subsidies can substantially alter consumer behaviour. The problem is that such instruments are politically very unpopular.
... Flying has clear 'practical' dimensions: First, while air-travel can be defined as an integrative practice in its own right, with its own sets of 'understandings, know-how and teleo-affective structures' (Warde, 2005: 150), it importantly forms part of and connects a wide range of other practices. Second, and relatedly, because air-travel allows for cheaper, longer (Pels, 2008), safer (Savage, 2013), and more frequent (Storme et al., 2017) and efficient travels, it opens up new avenues for carbon-intensive lifestyles and practices-as well as practice geographies-which in turn reinforce the dependence on flying. Moreover, as Adey et al. (2007: 774) have noted, much like how driving a car has become a dominant means of personal mobility, flying has become the 'normal international mode of travelling'. ...
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Flying has become an increasingly contested form of consumption, but ‘green’ consumers often continue to fly. This chapter provides novel insights into the stubbornness of air-travel by specifically studying the obstacles that environmentally conscious consumers face when trying to limit or eliminate aeromobility. Through in-depth interviews with Norwegian environmental organisation workers—conceptualised as particularly self-reflexive when it comes to environmentally contested forms of consumption—we analyse how environmentalists negotiate one of the most environmentally destructive aspects of their consumption patterns. To explore how the social embeddedness of flying complicates the reduction of air-travel in these accounts, we draw on a combination of mobilities and social practice approaches. The participants considered flying to be problematic, but also often necessary in specific practices. Various expectations related to convenience, time, and sociality, led to a certain ‘lock-in’ of (aero)mobility. Zooming out to consider broader practice geographies, we argue that aeromobility contributes to the tempo-spatial expansion of many practices, changing their contents, meanings, and the contexts in which they unfold. To achieve sustainable mobility, we suggest that attention must be shifted from the air-travels of individual consumers to the broader practices in which aeromobility is embedded.
... Flying has clear 'practical' dimensions: First, while air-travel can be defined as an integrative practice in its own right, with its own sets of 'understandings, know-how and teleo-affective structures' (Warde, 2005: 150), it importantly forms part of and connects a wide range of other practices. Second, and relatedly, because air-travel allows for cheaper, longer (Pels, 2008), safer (Savage, 2013), and more frequent (Storme et al., 2017) and efficient travels, it opens up new avenues for carbon-intensive lifestyles and practices-as well as practice geographies-which in turn reinforce the dependence on flying. Moreover, as Adey et al. (2007: 774) have noted, much like how driving a car has become a dominant means of personal mobility, flying has become the 'normal international mode of travelling'. ...
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Solar water heating, working correctly, can slash fossil fuel use in households. These systems have been popular in some countries for decades. But even in places environmentally well-suited to solar water heating, the technology is not necessarily widely used. Despite favourable weather, its early embrace of rooftop photovoltaics, and a generous decade-long incentive program, solar water heating is uncommon in California households. While there are many possible explanations, there has been little fieldwork on who uses solar water heating, the experiences of those who do, and how they relate to these conventional explanations. This chapter presents a picture of what we learned by talking to California households who use solar water heating systems, and relates these findings to policies and strategies for achieving low-carbon futures. The interviews were an unusual ethnographic element of a larger research project that sought to provide a broad view of the socio-technical landscape of solar water heating in California. We also discuss the role of these interviews in that project and the challenges of producing an integrated socio-technical analysis that can satisfactorily inform technology-centred solutions to problems seen by policy.
... The definition of safety in transport modes is often debated, and each sector of the industry will report the statistic that will present it in the best light; for example, the aviation industry often reports to be the safest mode of transport [1], though this is based on a per-travel hour or per-passenger mile basis (fatalities per billion km: air = 0.07 vs. car = 7.3). When considering journeys in context to their purpose, location, and distance, it is more difficult to distinguish the difference levels of safety levels because these individual factors can influence a mode's overall safety record; hence, a per passenger journey approach views aviation less favourably (e.g., fatalities per billion journeys: air = 117 vs. car = 40) [2][3][4]. Investigating individual journeys is one approach that can be used to distinguish between modes, as this specifies an origin and destination for a single trip. ...
Article
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Drones are being considered as an alternative transport mode to ground based van networks. Whilst the speed and application of such networks has been extensively studied, the safety aspects of such modes have not been directly compared. Using UK Department for Transport data and a drone flight planning approach using a probabilistic risk model, an estimation of fatality rates for seven origin-destination (O-D) pairs was undertaken in a theoretical case study of medical deliveries in the Southampton area of the UK. Using failure rates from the literature, results indicated that commercial vehicles (<3.5 T) were safer than drones in all cases by ≤12.73 (12.73 times more fatalities by drone than by road). With the O-D pairs covering a range of localities, routes covering more mileage on minor roads were found to be the least safe but were still ≥1.87 times safer than drone deliveries. Sensitivity tests on the modelled drone failure rates suggested that the probability of a failure would have to be ≤5.35×10−4 per flight-hour for drone risk to be equal to van risk. Investigating the circuity of drone routes (how direct a route is) identified that level of risk had a significant impact on travel distances, with the safest paths being 273% longer than the riskier, straight-line flight equivalent. The findings suggest that the level of acceptable risk when designing drone routes may negatively impact on the timeliness of drone deliveries due to the increased travel distance and time that could be incurred.
... Commercial aviation ranks as the safest mode of transport with a fatality rate of 0.07 per billion passenger miles compared to bus (0.11), rail (0.43), vehicle (7.28) and motorcycle (212.57), as presented by Savage [19]. It should be noted that Savage performed this analysis excluding acts of terrorism, sabotage, or suicide as these events bias the data and are generally exclusive to aviation accidents. ...
Conference Paper
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The aviation industry has come a long way since the first scheduled commercial flight in 1914. Some of the larger advancements include the rise of automation through technologies such as fly-by-wire systems and satellite communications, as well as the development of composite materials and their inclusion in commercial airliners. However, the public is still looking for more, particularly the introduction of zero-emission aircraft, greater accessibility, and lower costs. While zero-emission aircraft technology is still in the early development phase, another technology that may open the door to increased efficiency transportation by air is the area of urban air mobility and the broader category of advanced air mobility. While there is a good understanding of the public's perception towards conventional air transportation, the feelings of the general population towards urban air mobility and advanced air mobility are unclear. This paper aims to evaluate past studies conducted on the measurement of public perception surrounding urban air mobility. Past studies have shown that people are not entirely comfortable when it comes to trusting various automated technologies, and the degree to which is investigated here. The findings from this investigation will shape a study to be conducted on the Canadian population regarding the acceptance of advanced aviation technologies. The key topics addressed are the perception of commercial aviation and flight behaviours, feelings toward different autonomous technologies, evaluation of risk through different environmental and security factors,, and lastly, an exploration of the transportation needs of members of the public and how they would plan to incorporate urban air mobility into their lives. Finally, a framework for disseminating survey results and presenting advanced aviation technologies to the public is presented and focuses on engaging the public at every stage of the development.
... 100 m 2 within the site grounds or on public land just outside (Fig 4) (note this differs from standard hobby UAV practice, but it was assumed rules could be slightly relaxed for trained operators [64,65]); ii) had a low ground risk UAV flightpath between the landing site and SGH (mean risk of a third-party fatality on the ground due to a UAV crashing along its flightpath = 1×10 −7 fatalities/flight-hour or lower (100 fatalities per billion flight-hours)). For comparison, crewed aviation has a fatality risk of~2×10 −5 fatalities/ flight-hour [66]); iii) were not in the flight path of Southampton Airport. Flight paths were planned using SEEDPOD [67], an open-source UAV risk route planning tool developed by the authors to minimise ground risk, with assessment based on the risk of fatalities due to a UAV crash on the ground under the flightpath. ...
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Healthcare accounts for approximately 5% of emissions in developed nations, and the public healthcare provider in the United Kingdom (UK), the National Health Service (NHS), has set a target to reach net-zero emissions by 2040 without detriment to its quality of patient care. With Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs; a.k.a. drones, UAS, or RPAS) starting to be used in healthcare systems outside the UK, there is interest in how they could be integrated into NHS operations to transport diagnostic specimens. Reflecting on a business-as-usual analysis of current NHS diagnostic specimen logistics across the Solent region (southern UK), this paper critically evaluates the practical reality of integrating UAV deliveries of this commodity, identifying the benefits and challenges that must be addressed to realise commercial services, including dangerous goods legislation, cargo stability, routing, and weather. In the analysis, 14 out of 79 surgeries could be realistically served by a 5m wingspan vertical take-off/landing (VTOL) UAV: seven directly, and seven via ground-based transfers. The results suggested that an average of 1,628 samples could be served by UAV each week, resulting in 42 flights/week with 10 taxi services to cover periods where weather limited flying. This equated to an approximate total service cost of £2,964/week if regulations develop to relax UAV personnel constraints. The introduction of UAVs reduced the marginal external costs (greenhouse gas emissions, congestion, and air pollution) by £196 per week and cut travel times to UAV served sites by 72% (weather permitting). Tailpipe emissions (excl. taxis), vehicle-kilometres travelled, and van costs were reduced by 20%, 20%, and 23% (respectively), but the overall system cost increased by 56%. Whilst this increase is likely to make the introduction of UAV services financially challenging, the benefits in terms of emissions and journey time savings may offset some of the additional cost and warrant further investigation.
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The paper proposes a method for defining a dedicated operational context as part of the development and deployment of autonomous corporate governance systems. The case study of autonomous board of directors systems is examined. A significant part of the operational context for the autonomous corporate governance systems consists of the regulatory and legal framework that regulates the company’s operations. A special operational context for autonomous artificial intelligence systems can be defined by simultaneously formulating local regulatory documents in two versions, i.e., to be used by people and by autonomous systems. In such a case, the artificial intelligence system receives a clearly defined operational context that allows such a system to perform its functions with a required operational quality. Local regulations that take into account the specificity of operations involving individuals and autonomous artificial intelligence systems can become the foundation of the relevant legislation that would regulate the development and deployment of autonomous systems.
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How is morality related to cooperation? One common model posits that morality facilitates cooperation, insofar as the adherence to explicit rules or guidelines for collective practices enables or abets these practices. In this chapter, we draw on work from phenomenology, ethnomethodology, and the cognitive sciences to discuss an alternative model that flips this perspective on its head. While acknowledging that cooperation is facilitated by explicit rules and deliberative rule-making in some cases, we argue that frequently, morality emerges as people participate and gain skill in embodied, situated, coordinated activity. Morality here is grounded in the phenomenological experience of “oughtness,” or the immediate feeling that things “ought” to be a certain way, cultivated via repeated practical experience. Accordingly, immorality is grounded in the feeling that one’s sense of “oughtness” associated with a practice has been impeded, which often results in conscious moral deliberation. By grounding morality in the sense of “oughtness” cultivated via local, practical experience, this model has promising implications for research on moral variation and the socio-historical antecedents of moral deliberation and resultant moral frameworks.
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The World Economic Forum 2015 report «Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact» predicts that by 2026 the first artificial intelligence (AI) system will take a seat on the corporate board of directors. The function of a corporate director is one of the few that are legislated for execution by a «natural» person only. Whatever functions AI system performs on the board, it will be subject to the same strict requirements for non-discrimination, transparency, and accountability as «natural» directors. Several approaches are being developed that aim to eliminate errors in AI systems. These approaches are mainly reflected either in state regulation of the development process, or in the use of certain specific technologies.
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In order to create a special operational context for autonomous artificial intelligence systems, the wording of local regulatory documents can be simultaneously presented in two versions: for use by people and for use by autonomous systems.
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La fobia del volo è un disturbo molto diffuso che causa disagio e disabilità si-gnificative. L'autoipnosi costituisce una tra le modalità terapeutiche più efficaci per la soluzione e la ristrutturazione dei modelli di pensiero che mantengono l'aerofobia. In questo articolo è presentato un protocollo di autoipnosi ericksonia-na per la fobia del volo che impiega toni binaurali e suoni ASMR e un case report.
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We outline a theory of morality grounded in implicit coordination, in contrast to morality as explicit cooperation. As coordinated practice in time and space is dynamic and ever-changing, memorizing explicit rules and following them may not only be unnecessary but also insufficient to guarantee “moral” behavior. An unskilled novice who knows and follows explicit rules may nonetheless disrupt other practitioners for lack of skill. Instead, a moral person is someone who responds “appropriately” to the continuously evolving situational dynamics. This grounds the sense of oughtness in the smoothness of dynamic, situated practices and thus is the result of skill development and use. The morality of mundane and taken-for-granted acts of ongoing coordination is typically revealed when practices are disrupted. We describe two generic kinds of disruption, (1) procedural and (2) conceptual. The first entails an undesirable interference with or coercion of procedural ability. The second entails witnessing an action that violates one’s conceptual understanding of how the practice “ought to be.” As a result of the constant ebb and flow of people with varying degrees of enskilment and with varying experiences in slightly different local ecologies, disruptions are bound to occur. People may attempt to cope with disruptions by making personal changes, but these efforts are constrained by the irreversible investment of time involved in enskilment.
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The crises have greatly affected the tourism and hospitality industry. Hence, COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the tourism and hospitality. To provide insight and highlights the effect of crisis and resilience on recovery in tourism and hospitality this chapter aims to provide deep analysis of the impact of crises on tourism and hospitality to highlight the most important challenges and issues that lead to low performance. Moreover, practitioners and academics can benefit from the comprehensive analysis of this chapter to recover from crises that disrupt the work of tourism and hospitality services.KeywordsCrisisResilienceTourismHospitality
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This study provides the first willingness-to-pay estimate for docked bicycle-sharing systems by identifying these systems’ impacts on rental property values. Using rental listing data in Taiwan and applying a spatial difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the inception of a bicycle-sharing system significantly increases the rental prices of nearby properties. Results also indicate that citizens benefit from the system by solving the first-and-last-mile problem in public transportation but do not value the system as an independent transportation mode. We do not find robust evidence showing that the inception of a bicycle-sharing system improves air quality.
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Cooperative automotive platooning can improve safety and efficiency on the road. Look-ahead control of an entire platoon allows to reduce fuel consumption and travel time in open road scenarios, but dense traffic requires continuous adaptation of far-sighted plans. To achieve efficient individual vehicle control, these control systems need to be informed appropriately. For this purpose a novel concept for distributed model predictive control of the platoon vehicles is proposed which safely allows dense spacing and keeps communication requirements small while being robust against communication loss. A safety-extension separates safety constraints from the design of the tracking control goals and enables agreed-upon behavior in terms of temporarily limited decelerations. Driving corridors based on position errors are utilized to select suitable control modes or trigger prediction updates to following vehicles. Realistic vehicle dynamics co-simulations demonstrate the platoon safety and performance in selected scenarios, including emergency braking and maneuver tracking subject to traffic disturbances. The proposed measures are effective with realistic model errors, provide implicit collision safety and show string stability with low communication requirements.
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This paper reviews road safety performance in the United States. The paper develops a framework for assessing dimensions of road safety, and analyzes the importance of economic factors, travel patterns, demographics, road/traffic/vehicle technology, driver behavior, and public policy. Issues and challenges for future road safety research are discussed.
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Motor vehicle crashes continue to result in large numbers of fatalities each year and represent the leading cause of death for young persons. In 2006, for example, there were over 42,700 fatalities associated with these crashes. Understanding the causes of these crashes and methods to reduce them continues to be of great interest to economists, public health officials, and policy makers. We present in this paper statistical models using a rich set of panel data covering the period 1980 to 2007 by state and the District of Columbia. Our choice of variables is based on an extensive literature highlighting the importance of policy, safety, demographic, and economic determinants of fatality rates. The estimation techniques used in this paper takes cognizance that standard econometric inference focuses on parameter uncertainty. Models are estimated conditional on the assumption that the model to be estimated and reported is the “true” model. Tests are then made on a multitude of alternative models, each sequentially assumed to be the “true” model. Model uncertainty is manifested in this procedure, but it is often ignored in practice. Recent Bayesian statistical methods speak directly to the issue of both model choice and variable selection. This paper utilizes three Bayesian techniques: Extreme Bounds Analysis, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Stochastic Search Variable Selection to address model and parameter uncertainty in models estimating the determinants of motor vehicle crash fatalities.
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This paper reviews the economic literature relating to aviation safety; analyzes the safety record of commercial passenger aviation in the United States and abroad; examines aviation security as a growing dimension of aviation safety; and identifies emerging issues in airline safety and challenges for aviation safety research. Commercial airline safety has improved dramatically since the industry's birth over a century ago. Fatal accident rates for large scheduled jet airlines have fallen to the level where (along many dimensions) aviation is now the safest mode of commercial transportation. However, safety performance has not been evenly distributed across all segments of commercial aviation, nor among all countries and regions of the world. The finding that developing countries have much poorer safety records has been a persistent conclusion in aviation safety research and continues to be the case. Unfortunately, operations data are not available for many of the airlines that experience fatal accidents, so it is not possible to calculate reliable fatality rates for many segments of the worldwide aviation industry. Without more complete information, it will likely be difficult to make substantial improvements in the safety of these operations. Challenges to improving aviation security include: how much to focus on identifying the terrorists as opposed to identifying the tools they might use; determining how to respond to terrorist threats; and determining the public versus private roles in providing aviation security. The next generation of safety challenges now require development and understanding of new forms of data to improve safety in other segments of commercial aviation, and moving from a reactive, incident-based approach toward a more proactive, predictive and systems-based approach.
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Sumario: Risk in air travel -- The U.S. Airline safety record in the post-deregulation era -- Charter service and general aviation -- A comparison of aviation safety in Canada and the United States -- The international safety record -- The margin of safety -- Aging aircraft -- Aviation security -- Summing up and looking ahead -- Measures of safety -- Definitions and rules for assigning causes to accidents -- Carriers included in the Canadian analysis.
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Greater than half of all the fatal injuries on the United States railroads are sustained by trespassers. The paper provides a statistical analysis of the demographics of trespassers, the activities they were engaged in, and the causes of injury. It also analyzes trends over time. The paper finds that the risks of injury and death are particularly acute for males in their 20s and 30s. The annual casualty count has remained relatively stable in recent decades because growing affluence, which tends to reduce risk-taking behavior, has been balanced by increases in railroad activity and the size of the population.
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The Haddon matrix, developed by Haddon and Robert Brenner, emphasizes the effects of influences of driver, vehicle, and environmental factors before, during, and after collisions to minimize injuries and their severity
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The number of collisions and fatalities at rail-highway intersections in the United States has declined significantly over the past 30 years, despite considerable increases in the volume of rail and highway traffic. This article disaggregates the improvement into its constituent causes. Negative binomial regressions are conducted on a pooled data set for 49 states from 1975 to 2001. The analysis concludes that about two-fifths of the decrease is due to factors such as reduced drunk driving and improved emergency medical response that have improved safety on all parts of the highway network. The installation of gates and/or flashing lights accounts for about a fifth of the reduction. The development in the 1970s and early 1980s of the Operation Lifesaver public education campaign, and the installation of additional lights on locomotives in the mid 1990s, each led to about a seventh of the reduction. Finally, about a tenth is due to closure of crossings resulting from line abandonments or consolidation of little-used crossings.
Article
Improvements in rail-highway grade crossing safety have resulted from engineering, law enforcement, and educating the public about the risks and the actions they should take. The primary form of the latter is a campaign called Operation Lifesaver which started in the 1970s. This paper uses a negative binomial regression to estimate whether variations in Operation Lifesaver activity across states and from year-to-year in individual states are related to the number of collisions and fatalities at crossings. Annual data on the experience in 46 states from 1996 to 2002 are used. The analysis finds that increasing the amount of educational activity will reduce the number of collisions with a point elasticity of -0.11, but the effect on the number of deaths cannot be concluded with statistical certainty.
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