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Consistency in crime site selection: An investigation of crime sites used by serial sex offenders across crime series
... Given the predictability and patterned nature of the crime, research finds that stranger serial rapists tend to be fairly consistent across offenses, including their behavior and site selection [9,10]. For example, a recent study on the spatial proximity of rapes in a series for a large sample of serial rapists in the UK found that a majority of serial rapists committed rapes that were close in proximity (12 km). ...
... In terms of mobility and the consistency of site selection for serial stranger rapists, most function within limited environments [10,42], pattern themselves geographically, and often are relatively consistent in their site selection across offenses [10,39,43]. The specific characteristics of the crime sites do vary across sites [9], but the type of location selected (e.g., residence, neighborhood, shopping center) tends to stay consistent. ...
... In terms of mobility and the consistency of site selection for serial stranger rapists, most function within limited environments [10,42], pattern themselves geographically, and often are relatively consistent in their site selection across offenses [10,39,43]. The specific characteristics of the crime sites do vary across sites [9], but the type of location selected (e.g., residence, neighborhood, shopping center) tends to stay consistent. ...
Environmental criminological research on rape series is an understudied field due largely to deficiencies in official and publicly available data. Additionally, little is known about the spatial patterns of rapists with a large number of stranger rapes. With a unique integration and application of spatial, temporal, behavioral, forensic, investigative, and personal history data, we explore the geography of rape of a prolific, mobile serial stranger rapist identified through initiatives to address thousands of previously untested rape kits in two U.S. urban, neighboring jurisdictions. Rape kit data provide the opportunity for a more complete and comprehensive understanding of stranger rape series by linking crimes that likely never would have been linked if not for the DNA evidence. This study fills a knowledge gap by exploring the spatial offending patterns of extremely prolific serial stranger rapists. Through the lens of routine activities theory, we explore the motivated offender, the lack of capable guardianship (e.g., built environment), and the targeted victims. The findings have important implications for gaining practical and useful insight into rapists’ use of space and behavioral decision-making processes, effective public health interventions and prevention approaches, and urban planning strategies in communities subjected to repeat targeting by violent offenders.
... Following the work of previous scholars who have investigated the different crime sites chosen by sexual offenders, and who have found differences in the types of locations targeted for immobile and mobile assaults (see, for example, Ceccato, 2014;Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014;Leclerc et al., 2010), it was thought that the characteristics of these locations would differ as well. With this in mind, the following hypothesis is put forth: ...
... The victim is the most familiar with this location, suggesting that the place of encounter is within his/her home more than one half of the time. From a routine activities and geometric theory of crime point of view, it is unlikely that sexual offenders would encounter their victims in sites that are unfamiliar to them; however, this finding is in line with prior studies that have found the victim's home to be a place of encounter in stranger rape events (e.g., Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014), even so far as in 41% of cases (Davies & Dale, 1995). Due to the inherent costs (e.g., unfamiliarity with those who occupy the site, surveillance, escape routes) and the increased amount of effort (e.g., more planning and resources required) involved in hunting for victims outside of sexual offenders' comfort zones, rational choice would dictate that the potential payoff for engaging in this behavior would be highly desired by the offender (e.g., committing the assault without any interruption). ...
... Finally, it would also be of interest to determine whether these crime location sets, particularly the situations in which repeat stranger sexual offenders encounter their victims, and subsequently move them, are stable over their crime series. Rossmo (2000) notes that crime location sets are generally stable over time, and furthermore, the choice of encounter site has been found to be recurrent across sexual offenders' series (Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014). ...
Using data from qualitative interviews and police reports, latent class analysis is used on a sample of 54 repeat stranger sexual offenders who committed 204 sexual assaults to identify discrete contexts present at the time of victim encounter that influence these offenders' decision to use more than one location to commit their crimes. Five distinct classes are identified: residential outdoor common area, spontaneous/quiet outdoor site, residential home, active green space, and indoor/public gathering place. An investigation into the outcome(s) that most often result from the offender's decision to move the victim during the sexual assault indicates that those who move the victim from an active green space overwhelmingly engage in sexual penetration, as well as forcing their victims to commit sexual acts on them. Crimes where the victim is moved from a residential home show evidence of the offender physically harming the victim as well as using more force than necessary to complete the assault. Implications for situational crime prevention are discussed.
© The Author(s) 2015.
... For example, latent class analysis (LCA) and latent profile analysis (LPA) have been utilized in recent studies to form typologies of sexual burglary (e.g., Pedneault, Harris, & Knight, 2012), sexual impulsivity (e.g., Behnken, Vaughn, Salas-Wright, & DeLisi, 2015), violent sexual offenders (e.g., Healey et al., 2014), female sexual offenders (e.g. Miller, Turner, & Henderson, 2009;Turner, Miller, & Henderson, 2008;Wijkman, Bijleveld, & Hendriks, 2011), and crime sites of serial sexual offenders (e.g., Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014). However, these methods have yet to be employed to the study of high-risk sexual offenders. ...
... This study is not without limitations that should be considered when interpreting findings. Although the size of the sample was similar to other typological studies of sexual offenders (e.g., Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014;Pedneault et al., 2012;Turner et al., 2008;Wijkman et al., 2011), a larger sample would have increased the statistical power to detect potential small to moderate effect sizes between the subgroups. For example, psychopathy scores were elevated for all three groups making it difficult to detect statistically significant differences in a small sample. ...
Available online xxxx Purpose: High-risk sexual offenders have been identified as a distinct group of sexual offenders due to the seriousness of their offenses, as well as their high probability of reoffending. However, high-risk sexual offenders themselves represent a complex and heterogeneous group about which relatively little is still known. The purpose of this research was to provide a more refined understanding of high-risk sexual offenders by developing a profile of their behavior using offender and offense characteristics. Methods: Latent class analysis was utilized to develop a typology of some of the highest-risk sexual offenders (N = 92) in Canada using characteristics of the offenders and their index crimes. Results: Three subtypes of high-risk sexual offenders were identified in the latent class analysis. In follow up co-variate analyses, these three distinct groups were found to significantly differ on important offender characteristics and prior criminal offenses. Conclusions: Findings from this study highlight the heterogeneity and complexity of the highest-risk group of sexual offenders in Canada, with important investigative, therapeutic and preventative implications.
... La consistencia conductual en delincuentes seriales ha sido estudiada en el caso de homicidios (Salfati & Bateman, 2005;Bateman & Salfati, 2007;Sorochinski & Salfati, 2010;Salfati, Horning, Sorochinski & Labuschagne, 2015), intrusión en propiedades con fines de robo (Bouhana, Johnson & Porter, 2016;Fox & Farrington, 2016), y agresores sexuales (Lundrigan, Czarnomski, & Wilson, 2010;Harbers, Deslauriers-Varin, Beauregard & Kemp, 2012;Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2013, 2014a, 2014bHewitt & Beauregard, 2014;Oziel, Goodwill & Beauregard, 2015). En general, estos estudios concluyen, de una forma metodológicamente aceptable, que los delincuentes seriales tienden a repetir sus conductas crimen tras crimen (Janosch & Soto, 2018; Janosch, Pérez-Fernández & Soto-Castro, 2018a y 2018b; Janosch, Pérez-Fernández & Soto-Castro, 2020; Pérez-Ramírez, Giménez-Salinas, González-Álvarez, Soto-Castro, 2021). ...
Propósito: Estudiar la consistencia en las conductas de los agresores sexuales desconocidos y seriales en la escena del crimen, y la influencia de los factores situacionales. Método: Se analizan las conductas en la escena del crimen de 18 agresores sexuales desconocidos y seriales, que cometieron al menos 54 agresiones sexuales. Se han correlacionado con factores situacionales. Se ha estudiado también la consistencia de cada una de esas conductas. Resultados: Algunas conductas de los delincuentes están influidas por factores situacionales y, a la inversa, algunos factores situacionales pueden estar influidos por tales conductas. Algunas conductas que, prima facie, no están influenciadas por los factores situacionales son consistentes. Una excepción son las conductas sexuales del delincuente. Conclusión: Este análisis confirma, aunque limitadamente, relaciones conductuales esperables, pero nunca antes estudiadas, en una muestra española de agresores sexuales seriales y desconocidos.
... La consistencia conductual en delincuentes seriales ha sido estudiada en el caso de homicidios (Salfati & Bateman, 2005;Bateman & Salfati, 2007;Sorochinski & Salfati, 2010;Salfati, Horning, Sorochinski & Labuschagne, 2015), intrusión en propiedades con fines de robo (Bouhana, Johnson & Porter, 2016;Fox & Farrington, 2016), y agresores sexuales (Lundrigan, Czarnomski, & Wilson, 2010;Harbers, Deslauriers-Varin, Beauregard & Kemp, 2012;Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2013, 2014a, 2014bHewitt & Beauregard, 2014;Oziel, Goodwill & Beauregard, 2015). En general, estos estudios concluyen, de una forma metodológicamente aceptable, que los delincuentes seriales tienden a repetir sus conductas crimen tras crimen (Janosch & Soto, 2018; Janosch, Pérez-Fernández & Soto-Castro, 2018a y 2018b; Janosch, Pérez-Fernández & Soto-Castro, 2020; Pérez-Ramírez, Giménez-Salinas, González-Álvarez, Soto-Castro, 2021). ...
Filiación Institucional (1) Resumen Propósito: Estudiar la consistencia en las conductas de los agresores sexuales desconocidos y seriales en la escena del crimen, y la influencia de los factores situacionales. Método: Se analizan las conductas en la escena del crimen de 18 agresores sexuales desconocidos y seriales, que cometieron al menos 54 agresiones sexuales. Se han correlacionado con factores situacionales. Se ha estudiado también la consistencia de cada una de esas conductas. Resultados: Algunas conductas de los delincuentes están influidas por factores situacionales y, a la inversa, algunos factores situacionales pueden estar influidos por tales conductas. Algunas conductas que, prima facie, no están influenciadas por los factores situacionales son consistentes. Una excepción son las conductas sexuales del delincuente. Conclusión: Este análisis confirma, aunque limitadamente, relaciones conductuales esperables, pero nunca estudiadas, en una muestra española de agresores sexuales seriales y desconocidos. Palabras Clave Agresión sexual, desconocido, decisiones conductuales, situación, consistencia conductual. Abstract Purpose: To study the consistency in crime scene behaviors of unknown and serial sexual offenders and the influence of situational factors. Methods: The crime scene behaviors of 18 unknown and serial sexual offenders, who committed at least 54 sexual assaults, were analyzed. They have been correlated with situational factors. The consistency of each of these behaviors was also studied. Results: Some offenders' behaviors are influenced by situational factors and, conversely, some situational factors may be influenced by such behaviors. Some behaviors that, prima facie, are not influenced by situational factors are consistent. An exception is offender sexual behaviors. Conclusion: This analysis confirms, albeit to a limited extent, expected but never studied behavioral relationships in a Spanish sample of serial and unknown sex offenders.
... Thus, the current findings could be a result of few child molesters repeatedly bringing their child victim to the same outdoor, isolated location to perpetrate abuse as it provides a relatively private and low-risk place to commit the offense. Indeed, previous studies on the behavioral consistency of sex offender crime site selection have supported this supposition (see, for example, Deslauriers-Varin and Beauregard 2013Beauregard , 2014aLundrigan et al. 2010;Santtila et al. 2005), with findings largely indicating that serial sex offenders prefer to choose the same geographic (e.g., shopping center, neighborhood), or similar environmental (e.g., land use area of the victim encounter site) locations, over their criminal series. ...
The crime and place literature has consistently emphasized the importance of understanding spatial patterns of crime using increasingly smaller spatial units of analysis. Despite the growing number of studies that have used this perspective, very few of them have investigated sexual offenses specifically. The current study uses police event data to investigate the spatial distribution of sexual offenses that occurred between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018 in Austin, Texas (N = 1381). Disaggregating offenses first by victim age (child versus adult) and then type of sexual act perpetrated (penetration, sexual contact, and sexual non-contact offenses), three measures of spatial clustering, kernel density analyses, and a spatial point pattern test are used. Findings indicate that sexual offenses perpetrated against children and adults are spatially concentrated, but the degree to which they cluster depends upon the type of sexual act committed. Furthermore, within each of these victim profiles, spatial point pattern findings suggest that the street segments (and intersections) affected by sexual crime differ according to the nature of the sexual act committed. Implications for situational crime prevention and policing are discussed.
... What was novel about our study was the subtraction of any periods of incarceration from these figures to ensure we were accurately portraying time "at large." Our range of average temporal distances between two offenses from the same series was comparable to that of Santtila et al. (2005) and Winter et al. (2013); however, our median was much smaller than these two studies (two months compared to 8 months and 12 months, respectively) as well as compared to Deslauriers-Varin and Beauregard (2014;5 years). It is apparent that this difference in findings is not entirely due to the subtraction of incarceration periods and instead might reflect a broader, and therefore perhaps more diverse, sample in the present study (i.e., a broader range of sexual offenses). ...
Previous studies of the geographical and temporal features of serial sex offenses are limited by small samples and/or geographical areas, and are dated. We address a significant gap in the literature by investigating the temporal and geographical proximity of the crimes of 402 serial stranger sex offenders in the UK. Periods of incarceration were extracted from calculations of temporal proximity giving a more accurate picture of series duration and time elapsed between offenses from the same series. A notable minority of serial stranger sex offenders commit their offenses within very close geographic proximity and the same was found for temporal proximity. There were also occurrences of series spanning large distances and many years. The implications of these findings for the use of geography and time in the behavioral linking of crimes, and what they mean for policy decisions regarding financial investment in law enforcement technology, are discussed.
... Ainsi, les résultats de la présente étude pourraient être le fait d'un faible nombre d'agresseurs d'enfants qui emmènent leurs victimes dans les mêmes lieux extérieurs pour commettre leurs agressions puisque ces lieux sont relativement peu exposés et peu à risque. Des études précédentes portant sur la constance des comportements de délinquants sexuels et de leurs lieux choisis soutiennent en effet cette proposition (voir par exemple Deslauriers-Varin et Beauregard, 2013, 2014a, 2014bLundrigan, Czarnomski et Wilson, 2010 ;Santtila, Junkkila et Sandnabba, 2005). Les conclusions de ces travaux indiquent que les auteurs de crimes sexuels en série préfèrent choisir les mêmes lieux géographiques (centres commerciaux, quartiers, etc.) ou des lieux ayant des caractéristiques similaires. ...
Les études portant sur les crimes et les lieux ont toujours insisté sur l’importance de comprendre le profil spatial des crimes à l’aide d’unités d’analyse de plus en plus réduites. Même si de nombreuses études ont adopté cette perspective, peu se sont intéressées spécifiquement aux crimes à caractère sexuel. La présente étude se sert des données d’incidents enregistrés par la police pour étudier la distribution spatiale des infractions sexuelles ayant eu lieu entre le 1 er janvier 2016 et le 31 décembre 2018 à Austin, au Texas (N = 1381). Les infractions ont d’abord été divisées selon l’âge des victimes (enfant ou adulte) et le type d’acte sexuel perpétré (infraction sexuelle avec pénétration, avec contact et sans contact), ensuite trois mesures de concentration spatiale, des analyses de noyaux de densité et des analyses de dispersion spatiale ont été réalisées. Les résultats montrent que les infractions sexuelles commises contre des enfants et des adultes étaient concentrées dans l’espace, mais que leur degré de concentration dépendait du type d’acte commis. De plus, les analyses de dispersion spatiale semblent montrer que les segments de rue (et les intersections) où ont lieu de telles infractions diffèrent en fonction de la nature de l’acte sexuel perpétré. Les implications pour la prévention situationnelle et le maintien de l’ordre ( policing ) seront discutées.
... In fact, there are several studies that demonstrate that the variety of locations where these crimes generally take place are typically sites that are not considered by residential restriction laws. Indeed, Canadian studies have identified places that are more conducive to the commission of sex crimes, including shopping malls, bars, and victims' residences (Beauregard, Proulx, Rossmo, Leclerc, & Allaire, 2007;Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2010, 2014a, 2014b. It is also important to reiterate the fact that in a majority of sex offenses, the victim knows the offender prior to the abuse and the specific location may not matter that much from a prevention standpoint. ...
Uncertainty about sex offender treatment, the emergence of a risk-oriented correctional philosophy, and the rise of populist justice movements in reaction to violent sexual crimes and homicides involving children were the key ingredients favoring the emergence of new sex offender laws in the 1990s. This chapter focuses on the implementation of these laws, specifically, sex offender registries and public notification. The American, Canadian, and Australian experiences are examined and compared, with an emphasis on American public sex offender registry and notification laws, as these largely formed the basis for their implementation in other jurisdictions. The chapter presents the findings from more than 20 years of policy evaluation examining the impact of these legal dispositions. Research has shown that these dispositions are based on false and misguided assumptions about the characteristics of offenders and their risk of sexual reoffending. Additionally, policy evaluation research has highlighted that these dispositions are not effective crime prevention policies and their presence might create additional social problems not envisaged by those who promoted and implemented such laws. Finally, whereas the above policies are primarily reactive approaches to addressing the problem of sexual offending, this chapter also examines the impact of a more proactive, treatment-oriented approach.
... Offenders do not start sexually offending at the same age, at the same rate, over the same period of time, and do not stop from doing so at the same rate, at the same age, and over the same period of time. There is accumulating evidence that perpetrators of sexual offenses are best represented by the presence of multiple offending trajectories (e.g., Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014;Francis, Harris, Wallace, Knight, & Soothill, 2014;Lussier, Van Den Berg, Bijleveld, & Hendriks, 2012). Whereas earlier clinical studies characterized sex offending heterogeneity according to different personality characteristics and motivations of offenders, trajectory studies disentangle this heterogeneity through the examination of different patterns of sexual offending over the life course. ...
Research and policy are primarily concerned with why individuals continue to sexually reoffend. This contrasts with life course criminology, which argues that since desistance from offending is the norm for even serious offenders, research should focus on why individuals do not continue to offend. This chapter reviews the evidence for sexual and nonsexual offending discontinuity over the life course among persons involved in a sex crime. Overall, there is much more evidence of sexual offending discontinuity than there is of nonsexual offending discontinuity. Such findings are contrasted with contemporary perspectives and policies on sexual offending that tend to reduce an individual to a single event during one moment of their life span rather than consider the possibility of change and redemption. In fact, the most predominant life course theory suggests that virtually all offenders will be exposed to informal social controls such as marriage, employment, and parenthood that will dissuade such individuals from participating in crime. Yet, criminal justice system practices responding to sexual offending may act as barriers to attaining and maintaining factors that may help promote desistance. The chapter also introduces new theories that look beyond informal social control to explain why offending, including sexual offending, declines with age.
... Entre autres, l'ACL identifie les similarités entre les items afin de former des groupes en utilisant les probabilités d'appartenance alors que les autres analyses de classification standards se basent généralement sur les items les plus proches les uns des autres en utilisant des mesures de distance (Vermunt et Magidson, 2002 s'assurer que l'item correspond au groupe, alors que les autres analyses de classification commencent par trouver des similarités entre les cas et ne réviseront pas les groupes une fois qu'ils sont formés. C'est pour cette raison que l'ACL est en mesure d'identifier davantage de sous-groupes qui sont peut-être moins facilement apparents (voir, p. ex., Deslauriers-Varin et Beauregard, 2014). De plus, même si l'on assume que chaque participant appartient à une classe, une incertitude d'appartenance est considérée. ...
La confession en contexte d'interrogatoire policier est un élément important de l'enquê-te afin d'accumuler des preuves (Inbau, Reid, Buckley, et Jayne, 2001), résoudre le crime sous enquête (Phillips et Brown, 1998), et pour prouver la culpabilité d'un individu (Leo, 1996). Jusqu'à présent, les recherches effectuées dans ce domaine ont majoritairement mis l'accent sur l'identification des facteurs et motivations qui influencent la décision de confesser les faits reprochés. La non-confession a donc, jusqu'ici, pratiquement toujours été considérée par les chercheurs de façon implicite: ce qui ne favorise pas une confession doit donc nécessairement favoriser la non-confession. Aucun chercheur ne s'est jus-qu'ici véritablement attardé à valider cette présupposition, ni à décrire le processus déci-sionnel de non-confession. Cette étude vise donc à combler un vide de connaissances au sujet des motivations sous-jacentes à la non-confession en se basant sur un échan-tillon de 111 hommes non-confesseurs lors de leur dernier interrogatoire policier, mais ayant été reconnus coupables des faits reprochés et détenus dans un pénitencier cana-dien. Des analyses de classes latentes basées sur des facteurs motivationnels reconnus dans la littérature sur la confession ont aidé à identifier cinq profils distincts de non-confession : le Déni passif et le Déni ambivalent, deux profils pour lesquels les motivations et les raisons expliquant la non-confession n'ont pas su être bien identifiées à l'ai-de des facteurs à l'étude; le déni émotif, qui est motivé par plusieurs facteurs, particuliè-rement par ceux liés aux émotions et aux pressions internes (ex.: la peur de perdre un être cher); le déni calculé, déni qui semble basé sur une analyse coûts-bénéfices; et fina-lement, le déni pour protéger sa dignité, regroupant des non-confesseurs ayant principa-lement peur de ternir leur réputation. Les résultats de l'étude, discutés à la lumière des recherches sur l'interrogatoire policier et les techniques d'interrogatoire, ont d'impor-tantes retombées au niveau des pratiques d'interrogatoire de même que d'importantes implications dans l'avancement des connaissances théoriques sur la non-confession et sur l'interrogatoire policer, domaine encore très peu étudié, particulièrement au Canada.
... Ainsi, les résultats de la présente étude pourraient être le fait d'un faible nombre d'agresseurs d'enfants qui emmènent leurs victimes dans les mêmes lieux extérieurs pour commettre leurs agressions puisque ces lieux sont relativement peu exposés et peu à risque. Des études précédentes portant sur la constance des comportements de délinquants sexuels et de leurs lieux choisis soutiennent en effet cette proposition (voir par exemple Deslauriers-Varin et Beauregard, 2013, 2014a, 2014bLundrigan, Czarnomski et Wilson, 2010 ;Santtila, Junkkila et Sandnabba, 2005). Les conclusions de ces travaux indiquent que les auteurs de crimes sexuels en série préfèrent choisir les mêmes lieux géographiques (centres commerciaux, quartiers, etc.) ou des lieux ayant des caractéristiques similaires. ...
Les études portant sur les crimes et les lieux ont toujours insisté sur l’importance de comprendre le profil spatial des crimes à l’aide d’unités d’analyse de plus en plus réduites. Même si de nombreuses études ont adopté cette perspective, peu se sont intéressées spécifiquement aux crimes à caractère sexuel. La présente étude se sert des données d’incidents enregistrés par la police pour étudier la distribution spatiale des infractions sexuelles ayant eu lieu entre le 1er janvier 2016 et le 31 décembre 2018 à Austin, au Texas (N = 1381). Les infractions ont d’abord été divisées selon l’âge des victimes (enfant ou adulte) et le type d’acte sexuel perpétré (infraction sexuelle avec pénétration, avec contact et sans contact), ensuite trois mesures de concentration spatiale, des analyses de noyaux de densité et des analyses de dispersion spatiale ont été réalisées. Les résultats montrent que les infractions sexuelles commises contre des enfants et des adultes étaient concentrées dans l’espace, mais que leur degré de concentration dépendait du type d’acte commis. De plus, les analyses de dispersion spatiale semblent montrer que les segments de rue (et les intersections) où ont lieu de telles infractions diffèrent en fonction de la nature de l’acte sexuel perpétré. Les implications pour la prévention situationnelle et le maintien de l’ordre (policing) seront discutées.
The crime and place literature has consistently emphasized the importance of understanding spatial patterns of crime using increasingly smaller spatial units of analysis. Despite the growing number of studies that have used this perspective, very few of them have investigated sexual offences specifically. The current study uses police event data to investigate the spatial distribution of sexual offences that occurred between January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2018 in the city of Austin, Texas (N=1381). Disaggregating offences first by victim age (child versus adult) and then type of sexual act perpetrated (penetration, sexual contact, and sexual non-contact offences), three measures of spatial clustering, kernel density analyses, and a spatial point pattern test were used. Findings indicate that sexual offences perpetrated against children and adults were spatially concentrated, but the degree to which they clustered depended upon the type of sexual act committed. Furthermore, spatial point pattern findings suggested that the street segments (and intersections) affected by sexual crime differed according to the nature of the sexual act committed. Implications for situational crime prevention and policing are discussed.
... Data were analyzed with Mplus 7 (40). LCA has been used in various criminological and psychological studies examining criminal behavior (41,42). LCA, which assumes that discrete latent variables underlie a specific population, helps identify underlying patterns in data or subgroups of individuals who share important behavioral characteristics (43). ...
The current study aimed to identify distinct types of crime scene behaviors based on the criminal planning and motivation of offenders with mental illness in South Korea. Furthermore, our study examined the relationships between the identified types of crime scene behaviors in terms of the offenders' sociodemographic characteristics, modus operandi, and types of mental illness. Utilizing latent class analysis, the associations between crime scene behavior types and offender characteristics such as demographic factors, crime scene actions, and criminal information were empirically investigated. In particular, based on a sample obtained from a national police database of offenses committed between 2006 and 2014, four offense groups were identified: (i) instrumental-planned, (ii) instrumental-unplanned, (iii) expressive-unplanned, and (iv) hybrid. Additionally, significant relationships were found between offense styles and offender characteristics as well as criminal backgrounds. The findings suggest that mental disorders influence the types of actions exhibited by offenders during the commission of their crime. The results are discussed in terms of their theoretical and practical utility to criminal investigation.
... Plusieurs études ont d'ailleurs démontré que le fait de s'engager dans des activités sociales loin de la maison ou de passer une bonne proportion de son temps dans des endroits qui attirent ou regroupent beaucoup d'étrangers est associé à un risque accru de victimisation criminelle (Mustaine & Tewksbury, 2002;Tewksbury & Mustaine, 2003). À cet effet, les délinquants potentiels sont susceptibles de choisir un endroit particulier, en vue de commettre un crime, reconnu pour favoriser le regroupement de cibles potentielles et ainsi augmenter leurs probabilités de passage à l'acte (Bernasco & Nieuwbeerta, 2005 ;Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014). ...
Le présent chapitre offre un aperçu de la prévention situationnelle (PS). Il débute tout d’abord par présenter les assises théoriques de la PS et certains concepts clés qui lui sont attachés. Par la suite, il est question des techniques permettant de mieux comprendre et analyser les problèmes, et des outils disponibles afin de réfléchir aux solutions et proposer des mesures de prévention adaptées. Le chapitre se termine en abordant quelques critiques généralement adressées envers la PS.
... Indeed, the selection of locations and times to commit sexual crimes is not random and "irrational," but rather controlled and based on the available information and internal cost-benefit calculation of the perpetrator. For example, while the environmental decision-making involved in crime site selection might be influenced by dynamic factors, prior research has shown that sex crime perpetrators often use the same geographic and ecological space and tend to pattern themselves geographically and temporally (e.g., Beauregard, Proulx, Rossmo, Leclerc, & Allaire, 2007;Canter, 2000;Deslauriers-Varin, & Beauregard, 2013;2014b;Lundrigan, Czarnomski, & Wilson, 2010). In other words, whatever might be influencing the timing of the offense and the offense location is also influencing the timing and location of the perpetrator's subsequent offenses. ...
Sexual assault and abuse are among the most heinous crimes that can be committed. However, these crimes are largely underreported worldwide. Despite this, research on the investigation of sexual assault and abuse cases has been slow to emerge and there exists an important gap between the current knowledge on sexual victimization and the police response to it. Research is required on many topics related to the investigation of sexual assault and abuse, including research that can improve the effectiveness of investigative interviews and the accurate identification and prioritization of suspects. The goal of the current chapter is to review current research efforts in these two areas –investigative interviewing and suspect identification and prioritization procedures – and to discuss some of the challenges associated with these tasks , and the investigation of sexual assault and abuse more generally (e.g., false allegations, false confessions, cognitive biases).
... During adulthood, pornographic magazine exposure, erotic object exposure, and a composite measure of sex industry exposure were significantly related to greater frequency of sexual offending. Several other studies have documented the methodical and truly predatory nature of sex offender behavior (Beauregard & Martineau, 2014;Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014;Hewitt & Beauregard, 2014;Reid, Beauregard, Fedina, & Frith, 2014). ...
... Several scholars have studied the situational factors that lead up to the initiation of a sexual offense. Included in the literature are studies of the hunting process of serial sex offenders , their crime site selection (Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2014;Hewitt, Beauregard, & Davies, 2012), as well as their target selection scripts (Beauregard, Rebocho, & Rossmo, 2010;Deslauriers-Varin & Beauregard, 2010), which all emphasize the dynamic relation between offender behavior and the environment. Overall, these researchers found that time and place largely affect where, and how, serial sex offenders search for (see Brantingham & Brantingham, 1981;Cohen & Felson, 1979) and attack their victims. ...
Purpose
Using the rational choice perspective, the current study investigates the impact that the environment and offending behavior have on serial sexual crime event outcomes.
Methods
The effects of time and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, on sexual crime event outcomes are tested using Generalized Estimating Equations on a sample of 361 crime events committed by 72 serial sex offenders.
Results
Time and place do impact serial stranger sexual offenders’ modus operandi strategies, but the place characteristics of the crime have more of an effect on the offender’s behavior than do the temporal conditions during which the event occurs. Subsequent analyses indicate that temporal and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, predict whether the offender completes the rape, his reaction to victim resistance, and the level of physical force that he inflicts on the victim, but not whether the victim is forced to commit sexual acts on the offender.
Conclusions
Serial stranger sexual offenders are effective decision-makers who adapt their strategies to the physical environment in which they commit their crimes, but their degree of rationality can vary as some outcomes are more dependent on the context than the offender and his actions.
Spatial analysis has long been a valuable tool within the criminal investigation process. The aim of the present research is to analyze three dispersion distribution strategies and to build a geographic profile model on the base of set theory that can determine a reference area where the search for the anchor point of a serial homicide offender (SHO) can begin. In the present study, models of circular profiles with variable distance and ellipticals generated for 84 SHOs were tested. In general, the present study found that the elliptical model performed better than the circular models, most likely due to the larger area of the ellipses. When considering police utility purposes, circular models may perform more efficiently. The implications and directions for future research are discussed.
Depuis maintenant plus de deux décennies, les États-Unis disposent de registres publics
de délinquants sexuels et d’avis publics afin d’informer les citoyens de leur présence
dans la collectivité. Selon les promoteurs des lois ayant mené à l’implantation de ces
mesures, les registres et avis publics permettent d’accroître la sécurité publique puisqu’elles représentent un dissuasif important au passage à l’acte criminel. Le présent
article propose une analyse critique des prémisses de ces mesures ainsi que de l’expérience américaine concernant l’implantation, les enjeux et l’impact des registres et avis publics sur la délinquance sexuelle. En fait, ces mesures reposent sur de fausses prémisses et des conclusions erronées concernant les individus ayant commis un délit à
caractère sexuel ainsi que leur risque de récidive sexuelle. À la lumière de cette analyse,
les auteurs concluent que ces mesures jouent un rôle symbolique qui s’inscrit dans la
foulée d’un populisme pénal à l’égard de «délinquants sexuels» et constitue, du même
coup, un exemple contemporain de cheval de Troie en matière de politiques et mesures
pénales.
In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify the areas of the city where a serial child molester is most likely to act in the near future. The authors hypothesize that the analysis of environmental variables common to all the places where the pedophile acted will allow identifying the rest of the zones with similar environmental characteristics, being in those areas where it is most likely to act next time. A case of pedophile in fictitious series is split for this. After applying the proposed method, based on a comparison analysis by pairs, it is observed that two of the five scenes of the crime are located in the area indicated as maximum probability, a third in the area of "very high risk" and both remaining scenes fall on the third area designated as "high risk". The results indicate a moderate estimate of the crimes already committed and, in addition, two new hot spots appear that correspond to the most likely future areas of action. A series of limitations are discussed at the end.
Keywords
geographic profiling; prediction; serial offender; cognitive map; comparison by pairs
In the 4 decades since offender profiling (OP) was established, hundreds of journal articles, books, book chapters, reports, and magazine articles have been published on the topic, and the technique has been used by countless law enforcement agencies around the globe. However, despite the popularity and extensive literature published on OP, very little is known about its evolution, current state, or findings of the field to date. Therefore, this study presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of 426 publications on OP from 1976 through 2016. Results of this systematic review suggest that there have been considerable improvements in the scientific rigor and self-assessment being conducted in the discipline, although in total, few studies have used a strong empirical approach to develop new profiles. Even fewer evaluations of the effectiveness of OP have been conducted. The first summary of offender profiles proposed for major crimes in OP literature is also presented, with results indicating some recurrent themes in profiles, but wide variations in the number, name, and description of the profiles often found. A meta-analysis of case linkage analysis research indicates that this area is statistically sophisticated, and has yielded moderate to strong accuracy rates for linking crimes to a single offender. Finally, the first analysis of the most prolific authors, researchers, departments, and outlets for OP research, and the methods, approach, and most cited publications in OP are identified. Suggestions for future research on OP and the potential impact that this may have on policy and practice are also discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
Evidence suggests that the majority of crime is committed by a minority of prolific serial offenders who pose a substantial risk to society. Behavioural Crime Linkage (BCL) has been proposed as one method to more effectively bring serial offenders to justice. BCL is a form of behavioural analysis that seeks to identify similarities in offender crime scene behaviour across two or more crimes so that evidence collected across multiple investigations can be combined, and thus helps the police to work in a more efficient way (thereby saving time and money). This chapter will introduce the concept of BCL, describe the different scenarios in which it is used during live police investigations, and briefly discuss empirical research in the area. The chapter will also explore how BCL relates to the concept of primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention, how BCL fits within the wider criminal justice process, and how BCL can support the work of other criminal justice agencies.
Purpose
Much of what we know about serial sex offenders is based on multiple sexual assaults linked via conviction or self-report or offenders who primarily target strangers. Our data are derived from serial sex offenders linked via DNA testing of unsubmitted sexual assault kits—which provides a more objective examination of offending patterns.
Methods
Study uses descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and sexual assault narratives to explore offending patterns for serial vs. nonserial sex offenders and crossover offending patterns by relationship, age, and gender for serial sex offenders. We examine crossover offending patterns for three groups of serial sex offenders: those who assaulted only strangers, both strangers and nonstrangers, and only nonstrangers.
Results
Findings show significant crossover offending by relationship and age. Over one-quarter sexually assaulted both strangers and nonstrangers. Serial sex offenders often vary their offending pattern across offenses. The offender-victim relationship appears particularly salient when assessing offending patterns.
Conclusions
Offending patterns are not a consistently reliable link across assaults. Many of these sexual assaults had not been linked prior to DNA testing, thereby illustrating the power of the DNA testing of SAKs for identifying and linking serial sex offenders, particularly when testing is followed by a thorough investigation.
This research creates a new criminal profile for burglary by establishing the link among certain offender traits, past criminal behavior, and crime scene features. Utilizing latent class analysis (LCA) to identify underlying groups within the offender and offense characteristics, the relationship between certain offense styles and the most likely offender may then be established. These offense–offender profiles may be used by police to predict traits of an unknown offender based on information from a crime scene alone. Based on a sample of 405 burglaries committed between 2008 and 2009 in Florida, four criminal history groups, four offender types, and four offense styles were identified using LCA. A significant relationship was found among the offense styles and offender trait types, as well as between the offender trait and criminal history categories. This study serves both theoretical and practical purposes, as the findings have important implications for academia and law enforcement alike.
Burglary victimization is associated with a temporary elevated risk of future victimization for the same property and nearby properties. Previous research suggests that often the initial and subsequent burglaries involve the same offenders. This paper tests this assertion, using data on detected residential burglaries during the period 1996—2004 in The Hague and its environs, in the Netherlands. It demonstrates that pairs of detected burglaries occurring in close proximity in space and time are much more likely to involve the same offenders than pairs that are not so related. Topics for future research and implications for the detection of burglaries are addressed.
Criminologists and crime prevention practitioners are increasingly aware of the importance of places of crime. A place is a very small area, usually a street corner, address, building, or street segment. A focus on crime places contrasts with a focus on neighborhoods. Neighborhood theories usually highlight the development of offenders. while place level explana- tions emphasize crime events. Three perspectives suggest the importanceof places for understanding crime: rational choice; routine activity theory; and crime pattern theory. Though these perspectives are mutually supportive, routine activity theory and crime pattern theory provide different explana- tions for crime occurring at different places. Five areas of research help us understand the importance of places: crime concentration about particular facilities (e.g., bars); the high concentration of crime at some addresses and the absence of crime at others; the preventive effects of various place features; the mobility of offenders; and studies of how offenders select targets. Concern has been expressed that efforts to prevent crime at specific locations will only move it to other, unprotected locations. Recent research suggests that these fears may be exaggerated, and that under some circum- stances the opposite effect occurs: instead of crime displacing, the benefits of the prevention efforts diffuse to unprotected locations. This paper con- cludes with a review of the 14 original articles in this volume.
Efforts to develop a unified model of collective violence have been limited by the diverse array of events analyzed, from terrorist attacks to riots. This article seeks to develop a more inclusive theoretical and analytic framework by exploring the targets of violence, something that has received little disaggregated attention. We argue that consideration of who or what is targeted during the course of an event, together with collectivity size and the conditional role it may play, offers new theoretical insight into collective violence dynamics. Our analysis draws from newspaper records on a diverse range of collectivities, from parties to rallies to riots. We find that in many contexts, collectivity size increases the likelihood of violence against some targets, notably state actors, while reducing attacks on others. These findings provide the basis for a broader discussion of why unpacking targets is so critical to understanding the dynamics of collective violence.
This paper begins by reviewing research on the cognitive processing used by residential burglars when choosing targets. We then attempt to make links between this processing and the notion of expertise in the broader cognitive literature, to the extent that, in comparison with novices, processing appears removed from explicit deliberation, tasks are carried out speedily and methodically, and recognition of relevant stimuli or cues is extremely fast, if not instantaneous. We then present new data from interviews with 50 experienced burglars. We cover the initial decision to burgle and selection of the target followed by, for the first time in the UK, a detailed discussion of search strategies within the property. Forty-five out of 50 burglars had a predictable search pattern and 37 spontaneously described their searches using terms signifying automaticity-an underlying feature of expertise. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of primary and secondary crime prevention.
Purpose. This paper is concerned with case linkage, a form of behavioural analysis used to identify crimes committed by the same offender, through their behavioural similarity. Whilst widely practised, relatively little has been published on the process of linking crimes. This review aims to draw together diverse published studies by outlining what the process involves, critically examining its underlying psychological assumptions and reviewing the empirical research conducted on its viability.Methods. Literature searches were completed on the electronic databases, PsychInfo and Criminal Justice Abstracts, to identify theoretical and empirical papers relating to the practice of linking crimes and to behavioural consistency.Results. The available research gives some support to the assumption of consistency in criminals' behaviour. It also suggests that in comparison with intra-individual variation in behaviour, inter-individual variation is sufficient for the offences of one offender to be distinguished from those of other offenders. Thus, the two fundamental assumptions underlying the practice of linking crimes, behavioural consistency and inter-individual variation, are supported. However, not all behaviours show the same degree of consistency, with behaviours that are less situation-dependent, and hence more offender-initiated, showing greater consistency.Conclusions. The limited research regarding linking offenders' crimes appears promising at both a theoretical and an empirical level. There is a clear need, however, for replication studies and for research with various types of crime.
The purpose of this study is to determine if readily available information about commercial and residential serial burglaries, in the form of the offender's modus operandi, provides a statistically significant basis for accurately linking crimes committed by the same offender. Logistic regression analysis is applied to examine the degree to which various linking features can be used to discriminate between linked and unlinked burglaries. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is then performed to calibrate the validity of these features and to identify optimal decision thresholds for linking purposes. Contrary to crime scene behaviours traditionally examined to link serial burglaries, the distance between crime site locations demonstrated significantly greater effectiveness as a linking feature for both commercial and residential burglaries. Specifically, shorter distances between crimes signalled an increased likelihood that burglaries were linked. Thus, these results indicate that, if one examines suitable behavioural domains, high levels of stability and distinctiveness exist in the actions of serial burglars, and these actions can be used to accurately link crimes committed by the same offender. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Case linkage involves identifying crime series on the basis of behavioral similarity and distinctiveness. Research regarding
the behavioral consistency of serial rapists has accumulated; however, it has its limitations. One of these limitations is
that convicted or solved crime series are exclusively sampled whereas, in practice, case linkage is applied to unsolved crimes.
Further, concerns have been raised that previous studies might have reported inflated estimates of case linkage effectiveness
due to sampling series that were first identified based on similar modus operandi (MO), thereby overestimating the degree
of consistency and distinctiveness that would exist in naturalistic settings. We present the first study to overcome these
limitations; we tested the assumptions of case linkage with a sample containing 1) offenses that remain unsolved, and 2) crime
series that were first identified as possible series through DNA matches, rather than similar MO. Twenty-two series consisting
of 119 rapes from South Africa were used to create a dataset of 7021 crime pairs. Comparisons of crime pairs that were linked
using MO vs. DNA revealed significant, but small differences in behavioral similarity with MO-linked crimes being characterized
by greater similarity. When combining these two types of crimes together, linked pairs (those committed by the same serial
offender) were significantly more similar in MO behavior than unlinked pairs (those committed by two different offenders)
and could be differentiated from them. These findings support the underlying assumptions of case linkage. Additional factors
thought to impact on linkage accuracy were also investigated.
KeywordsComparative case analysis–Linkage analysis–Behavioral linking–Sexual assault–Sexual offense
This study investigates target selection scripts of 72 serial sex offenders who have committed a total of 361 sex crimes on stranger victims. Using latent class analysis, three target selection scripts were identified based on the victim's activities prior to the crime, each presenting two different tracks: (1) the Home script, which includes the (a) intrusion track and the (b) invited track, (2) the Outdoor script, which includes the (a) noncoercive track and the (b) coercive track, and (3) the Social script, which includes the (a) onsite track and the (b) off-site track. The scripts identified appeared to be used by both sexual aggressors of children and sexual aggressors of adults. In addition, a high proportion of crime switching was found among the identified scripts, with half of the 72 offenders switching scripts at least once. The theoretical relevance of these target selection scripts and their practical implications for situational crime prevention strategies are discussed.
This paper introduces the discrete spatial choice approach to the study of criminal target choice. The approach is used to assess whether residential burglars are attracted to target areas that are affluent, accessible, and poorly guarded. In addition, the importance of these criteria is postulated to vary across burglars. The theory is tested using data on 548 residential burglaries, committed by 290 burglars from the city of The Hague, the Netherlands. The likelihood of a neighbourhood's being selected for burglary is heightened by its ethnic heterogeneity, its percentage of single-family dwellings, and its proximity to where the offender lives. The results and prospects of the discrete spatial choice approach for spatial target selection research are discussed.
This paper considers a wide class of latent structure models. These models can serve as possible explanations of the observed relationships among a set of m manifest polytomous variables. The class of models considered here includes both models in which the parameters are identifiable and also models in which the parameters are not. For each of the models considered here, a relatively simple method is presented for calculating the maximum likelihood estimate of the frequencies in the m way contingency table expected under the model, and for determining whether the parameters in the estimated model are identifiable. In addition, methods are presented for testing whether the model fits the observed data, and for replacing unidentifiable models that fit by identifiable models that fit. Some illustrative applications to data are also included.
This article assesses the theoretical and empirical evidence on the concentration of crime in a small number of places and times, and the concentration of offending among a small number of very active offenders. It describes the salience of co-offending to serious crime problems, and then studies the relationship between place dynamics and high-crime times, as well as some significant criminological theories and perspectives. The article also studies the concepts of urban violence, repeat victimization, and crime hot spots. It also shows how citywide crime rates can be controlled by focusing on crime-prevention resources on high-crime places, times, and offenders.
This article analyzes how street robbers decide on where to attack their victims. Using data on nearly 13,000 robberies, on
the approximately 18,000 offenders involved in these robberies, and on the nearly 25,000 census blocks in the city of Chicago,
we utilize the discrete choice framework to assess which criteria motivate the location decisions of street robbers. We demonstrate
that they attack near their own homes, on easily accessible blocks, where legal and illegal cash economies are present, and
that these effects spill over to adjacent blocks.
Sexual assault has been a frequent topic of research for several decades, especially for feminist researchers. Generally, feminist research suggest that there are high levels of sexual assault against women because of a patriarchal, rape-supportive culture. However, not all women have the same heightened risk for sexual assault victimization. Wh the feminist perspective does not adequately account for are the variations in rape victimization rates across the female population. This is where the importance of theory that focuses on individual statuses and lifestyles becomes important. By combining the two perspectives, explanations of sexual assault victimization can be made more vigorous and instructive. The data in this article come from 674 college and university women in 12 southern postsecondary institutions in eight states who completed an in-depth survey. Analyses focused on sexual assault in general and an more serious forms of sexual assault. Findings suggest tat the combination of feminism and ro...
Using information gathered from police investigators' reports, this article identifies some of the salient patterns and characteristics that differentiate forms of stranger rape, distinguish stranger from nonstranger rape, and distinguish serial from nonserial rape. The patterns and characteristics discussed reflect the situational nature of the offense, which is how the offender commits the offense, rather than descriptions of personal characteristics. These distinguishing patterns and characteristics also suggest why some stranger rapists are apprehended while others remain at large. The major framework utilized in distinguishing rape in this study is not solely based on victim-offender relationship. Rather the joint consideration of victim-offender relationship and the number of reported rapes committed by the same person before apprehension is suggested to better reflect the complex interplay between offender, victim, and situational characteristics and how they relate to the apprehension of the rape offender.
Riots are extreme events, and much of the early research on rioting suggested that the decision making of rioters was far from rational and could only be understood from the perspective of a collective mind. In the current study, we derive and test a set of expectations regarding rioter spatial decision making developed from theories originally intended to explain patterns of urban crime when law and order prevail—crime pattern and social disorganization theory—and consider theories of collective behavior and contagion. To do this, we use data for all riot-related incidents that occurred in London in August 2011 that were detected by the police. Unlike most studies of victimization, we use a random utility model to examine simultaneously how the features of the destinations selected by rioters, the origins of their journeys, and the characteristics of the offenders influence offender spatial decision making. The results demonstrate that rioter target choices were far from random and provide support for all three types of theory, but for crime pattern theory in particular. For example, rioters were more likely to engage in the disorder close to their home location and to select areas that contained routine activity nodes and transport hubs, and they were less likely to cross the Thames River. In terms of contagion, rioters were found to be more likely to target areas that had experienced rioting in the previous 24 hours. From a policy perspective, the findings provide insight into the types of areas that may be most vulnerable during riots and why this is the case, and when particular areas are likely to be at an elevated risk of this type of disorder.
Purpose
Factors influencing crime location choices are not only significant to rape investigations, but they are especially important for geographic profiling. The purpose of the current study is to use temporal, hunting behavior, and modus operandi factors to determine those variables that influence the victim encounter and release locations in serial sexual crime.
Design/methodology/approach
Due to the possible correlated nature of serial rapes, the authors use generalized estimating equations (GEE) on a sample of 361 rapes committed by 72 serial sex offenders.
Findings
Results indicate that temporal factors, offender hunting behavior, and modus operandi strategies are significant predictors of both the victim encounter and release sites, but the importance of these factors varies depending on whether the location is in a residential land use area, a private site, inside location, or a site that is familiar to the offender.
Practical implications
Police can learn from the current findings and apply them to subsequent rapes within a series by recognizing the timing of the offense, the type of hunting pattern and attack method used in prior sexual crimes committed by the same offender, and modus operandi strategies, to determine the type of location where the rapist is likely to offend next.
Originality/value
This paper is the first attempt to predict factors related to both the encounter and the victim release site in serial rapes using GEE.
The present study examines consistency of crime behaviour among 347 sexual assaults committed by 69 serial sex offenders. This individual behaviour approach—the so-called signature approach—reveals which features of crime behaviour are consistent across a series and which features are not. The consistency scores were calculated using the Jaccard's coefficient. The results of this study indicate that there are some crime features of a serial sexual assault that can be useful for the purpose of linkage. Another important finding is that consistency scores for different variables within the same category can differ substantially. Moreover, serial sex offenders are more likely to be consistent in their environmental crime features when they are also consistent in their behavioural features, and vice versa. Serial sex offenders are also more likely to be consistent in the behavioural features of their assaults as the crime series gets longer. The implications of the results are discussed in relation to both research and practise
Crime linkage analysis constitutes a tool to help investigators prioritize suspects, but a scarcity of research and methodological issues limits our knowledge on behavioral consistency in sexual offenses. The current study identifies geographic and environmental factors that are useful in examining offending consistency across series of sexual assaults using different specialization coefficients. The current study draws on criminal career research and methodology as a way to improve the study of behavioral consistency. The sample includes 72 serial stranger sex offenders who have committed a total of 361 sexual assaults. Three methods are used (i.e., diversity index, forward specialization coefficient, and Jaccard’s coefficient) and reveal a high degree of offending consistency. All three methods also highlight promising factors to rely on for crime linkage of serial sexual offenses. Empirical and methodological implications for behavioral consistency research are discussed as well as practical implications for police investigations and crime linkage.
This paper discusses the development of a filter model for prioritizing possible links in dwelling burglary. The filters utilize the central aspects of crime scene information that is available and accessible to investigators in burglary, namely geo-spatial, temporal, behavioural, and dwelling information. The proposed filters were analysed using a sample of 215 dwelling burglaries committed by 43 serial burglars (i.e. 5 offences each) in order to determine the sequence in which the filters should be considered in prioritizing possible linked offences. The results indicated that the following order (i.e. better performance to worse performance) was most effective at linking offences, utilizing: (1) geo-spatial information, (2) temporal aspects, (3) behavioural information and, lastly, (4) dwelling characteristics. Specifically, the results indicated that offences in close proximity to one another should be given priority. Further, any offence occurring within a 28-day span before or after the index offence should be given priority. The paper argues that behavioural and dwelling characteristics are less effective for linking than geo-spatial and temporal information because the former two aspects are influenced significantly by situational and contextual cues on offender decision-making.
This article reports the results of an experiment designed to explore (a) the environmental cues used by active residential burglars in choosing targets, and (b) the extent to which such offenders possess specialized cognitive abilities (commonly referred to as expertise) that might facilitate this decision-making process. Forty-seven active residential burglars and a matched group of 34 nonoffenders were shown photographs of houses and asked whether the dwellings would be attractive or otherwise to burglars. Subsequently, subjects were given a surprise recognition test where, in some photographs, physical features of the setting had been changed. Results revealed that active residential burglars were significantly better than nonoffenders at recognizing certain “burglary relevant” environmental changes. Moreover, offenders differed from controls in the mix of environmental cues they employed when selecting targets. These results argue for the importance of acquired expertise in explanations of offender decision making.
The present article examines the key concepts underlying victimization theories (i.e., exposure, proximity, target attractiveness, guardianship). Measures of each concept are developed and evaluated in terms of their ability to explain individuals' risks of residential burglary, personal theft, and personal violence. Using data from 5,271 respondents in the British Crime Survey, mixed empirical support is found for the structural-choice model underlying current victimization theories. Specifically, the structural components of these theories (proximity and exposure) are more consistently related to victimization experiences than the target-selection or choice components (attractiveness and guardianship). Multiplicative models that test for interaction among these major variables also produce results that are contrary to theoretical productions. The authors conclude that present theories do not adequately describe individuals' risks of victimization and discuss some alternative directions for future research on criminal victimization.
This paper considers a wide class of latent structure models. These models can serve as possible explanations of the observed
relationships among a set of m manifest polytomous variables. The class of models considered here includes both models in which the parameters are identifiable
and also models in which the parameters are not. For each of the models considered here, a relatively simple method is presented
for calculating the maximum likelihood estimate of the frequencies in the m-way contingency table expected under the model, and for determining whether the parameters in the estimated model are identifiable.
In addition, methods are presented for testing whether the model fits the observed data, and for replacing unidentifiable
models that fit by identifiable models that fit. Some illustrative applications to data are also included.
Few studies have compared single and serial homicide offenders' criminal histories. To understand more completely how these offenders differ, Multidimensional Scalogram Analysis (MSA) is used to compare single and serial homicide offenders' profiles comprised of ten prior offending variables. The profiles of offenders overall co-occurred in four thematic groupings that were differentiated by the type of violent offenses contained in that group and whether the offenses were aimed at people, property, or both. Results additionally showed that most serial offenders had criminal history profiles that were unique from one another and from single offenders. The implications for differentiating offenders are discussed.
One of the most problematic aspects of predatory violent crime is the volume of tips and suspects generated through their investigation. Traditional police methods are not always sufficient and detectives need alternative tactics to assist them in these types of cases. Geographic profiling, a strategic information management system designed to support investigative efforts in cases of serial murder, rape and arson, is one such approach. Other topics discussed include: introduction; investigative difficulties; geographic profiling; and conclusion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Previous research evaluating burglars’ offending location choices has produced mixed findings about the influence of physical barriers and connectors on offender movement patterns. Consequently, this article
utilises the discrete spatial choice approach to formally evaluate the impact of barriers and connectors on residential burglars’ macro-level offending location choices. Data from Perth, Western Australia, demonstrated that physical barriers and connectors exert significant influence on offender decision-making at this level, and that the influence of impermeable barriers increases with proximity of these obstacles to the offender’s point of origin. These findings provide formalised evidence for the independent importance of physical barriers and connectors in offender movement and are discussed with respect to current environmental criminology theory.
The differences in crime scene actions in cases of stranger rape committed by convicted offenders were examined between 31 single-victim rapists and 35 serial rapists. Data were collected from police files, court verdicts, psychiatric evaluations, and criminal records. Findings indicate that the serial rapists were more criminally sophisticated than the single-victim rapists, during their first and second rapes. The single-victim rapists were significantly more likely to engage in the interpersonal involvement behavior of kissing the victim, and to engage in pre-assault alcohol use, than the serial rapists. There was, however, no significant difference in physically violent or sexual behaviors. To investigate the possibility of predicting rapist type, logistic regression analyses were performed. Results indicate that three behaviors in conjunction, kissed victim, controlled victim, and offender drank alcohol before the offense, predicted whether an unknown offender is a single-victim or serial rapist with a classification accuracy of 80.4%. The findings have implications for the classification of stranger rapists in offender profiling. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
This study examines the crime patterns of 76 New Zealand serial sexual offenders in order to determine the extent to which offenders display locational consistency in their choice of crime locations. More specifically, the hypothesis was that there would be intraseries consistency in the distances travelled (spatial consistency) and the characteristics of the crime sites selected (environmental consistency) by serial sexual offenders.
For spatial consistency to be tested, the distances travelled from home to offend and the criminal range for each offence series were analysed. Support was found for spatial consistency, and, in line with much overseas research, it was also found that the offenders typically did not travel very far from home to offend (median distance of 3 km).
The environmental consistency measure was made up of various physical, temporal, and contextual variables that described the environmental characteristics of an offence. As hypothesised, it was found that offenders displayed intraseries environmental consistency in offence site selection beyond the level of that expected by chance. The implications of this both for understanding offender spatial decision making and for geographical profiling are discussed. Copyright
As we have tried to explain in this paper, we believe that the concept of a criminal career, the distinction between participation and frequency, and the longitudinal research method all have considerable value for criminological theory and policy. We have no particular stake in demonstrating that the individual frequency of offending stays constant over age; however, based on the present state of knowledge, it appears that participation in offending, but not frequency, varies with age. We are not uncritical enthusiasts of the concepts of career criminals and selective incapacitation, but we do believe that these policy ideas can stimulate important research. The outcome of the debate over these policies, however, has little relevance for the value of research on criminal careers, the participation/frequency distinction, and the longitudinal method - all of which rest on theoretical, methodological, and other scholarly considerations.
In daylight, burglars minimized the risks of being spotted by selecting “up-market” targets with better front cover and low occupancy that reflected the occupants' higher employment levels. After dark, townhouses with less cover were popular despite victims, fewer of whom were employed, raising more alerts. Evidence indicates consistency with routine activity theory, and target strategies appear rational, though shaped by differences in risks and offenders. Lifestyles and routine activities of victims, coupled with daylight and darkness changes, created burglary opportunities. Distinctive daylight and darkness strategies proved attractive to certain types of offenders, so that housing morphology, victims, their lifestyle, risks, rewards and burglar characteristics were distinctively aligned, providing the framework for target and area selection. Theories need to incorporate contrasts in daylight-darkness and housing morphologies, and relate to offender diversity.
Overview Empirical example: Positive health behaviors Preparing to conduct LCA with covariates LCA with covariates: Model and notation Hypothesis testing in LCA with covariates Interpretation of the intercepts and regression coefficients Empirical examples of LCA with a single covariate Empirical example of multiple covariates and interaction terms Multiple-group LCA with covariates: Model and notation Grouping variable or covariate? Use of a Bayesian prior to stabilize estimation Binomial logistic regression Suggested supplemental readings Points to remember What's next
Why do robbers choose a particular area to commit an offense? Do they rob close to home? Do they search for areas with suitable and attractive targets? What keeps them away from certain areas? To answer these questions, a model is developed of how robbers choose target areas. The model draws on various theoretical and empirical tra-ditions, which include environmental criminology, journey to crime research, gang research, and social disorganization theory. Testing the model on cleared robbery cases in Chicago in the years 1996–1998, we demonstrate that robbery location choice is related to characteristics of target areas, to areas where offenders live, to joint characteristics of the resident and target areas, and to characteristics of the offenders them-selves. The presence of illegal markets and other crime generators and crime attractors make areas attractive for robbers, whereas collective efficacy seems to keep them out. Distance as well as racial and ethnic segregation restrict the mobility of offenders.
Many offenses take place close to where the offender lives. Anecdotal evidence suggests that offenders also might commit crimes near their former homes. Building on crime pattern theory and combining information from police records and other sources, this study confirms that offenders who commit robberies, residential burglaries, thefts from vehicles, and assaults are more likely to target their current and former residential areas than similar areas they never lived in. In support of the argument that spatial awareness mediates the effects of past and current residence, it also is shown that areas of past and present residence are more likely to be targeted if the offender lived in the area for a long time instead of briefly and if the offender has moved away from the area only recently rather than a long time ago. The theoretical implications of these findings and their use for investigative purposes are discussed, and suggestions for future inquiry are made.
Linkage analysis is a crucial part of the investigative process when faced with a possible series of related offences. Establishing behavioural consistency (i.e., offender's behaviours consistently present across the series) is at the core of linkage. Recent empirical studies have found little evidence of consistency looking at either individual or groups of behaviours in serial homicide. It is argued that behavioural changes are rooted in the changing cognitive strategies that offenders use to reach their ultimate goal (i.e. the commission of multiple homicides). Factors that could account for these changes include learning, situational factors, loss of control, and changes in the offender's fantasy. Patterns of behavioural change have been identified in serial crimes, such as rape. However, no empirical studies have looked at patterns of behavioural change in serial homicide. The present study examined patterns of consistency and change using a combination of thematic and behavioural subgroup approaches that use Multidimensional Scaling. Thematic differentiation indicative of behavioural manifestations of cognitive strategies was found in all three examined subgroups: planning, wounding, and offender–victim interaction, and patterns of change within these subgroups provided support for the above theories. Looking at behavioural patterns rather than individual behaviours, may be a more fruitful way of examining consistency in serial homicide, and could have significant implications for linkage analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Whilst case linkage is used with serious forms of serial crime (e.g. rape and murder), the potential exists for it to be used with volume crime. This study replicates and extends previous research on the behavioural linking of burglaries. One hundred and sixty solved residential burglaries were sampled from a British police force. From these, 80 linked crime pairs (committed by the same serial offender) and 80 unlinked crime pairs (committed by two different serial offenders) were created. Following the methodology used by previous researchers, the behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity of linked crime pairs were compared with those of unlinked crime pairs. Geographical and temporal proximity possessed a high degree of predictive accuracy in distinguishing linked from unlinked pairs as assessed by logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses. Comparatively, other traditional modus operandi behaviours showed less potential for linkage. Whilst personality psychology literature has suggested we might expect to find a relationship between temporal proximity and behavioural consistency, such a relationship was not observed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Purpose. The psychological hypotheses that form the foundations for ‘Offender Profiling’ are identified and the research that has tested them is reviewed. Argument. ‘Offender profiling’ is taken to be the derivation of inferences about acriminal from aspects of the crime(s) he or she has committed. For this process to move beyond deduction based on personal opinion and anecdote to an empirically based science, a number of aspects of criminal activity need to be distinguished and examined. The notion of a hierarchy of criminal differentiation is introduced to highlight the need to search for consistencies and variations at many levels of that hierarchy. However, current research indicates that the key distinctions are those that differentiate, within classes of crime, between offences and between offenders. This also leads to the hypothesis ofa circular ordering of criminal actions, analogous to the colour circle, a ‘radex’. The radex model, tested using Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) procedures, allows specific hypotheses to be developed about important constituents of criminal differentiation: Salience. MDS analyses reveal the importance of the frequency of criminal actions as the basis on which the significance of those actions can be established. Models of differentiation. The research reviewed mainly supports distinctions between criminals in terms of the forms of their transactions with their explicit or implicit victims. Consistency. Offenders have been shown to exhibit similar patterns of action on different occasions. The most reliable examples of this currently are in studies of the spatial behaviour of criminals. Inference. Under limited conditions it is possible to show associations between the characteristics of offenders and the thematic focus of their crimes. In general these results provide support for models of thematic consistency that link the dominant themes in an offender's crimes to characteristic aspects of his or her lifestyle and offending history. Implications. Much of what passes for ‘offender profiling’ in practice and as reported in the factual and fictional media has no basis in empirical research. However, there are some promising results emerging in some areas of study. These results are most likely to be of value to police investigations when incorporated into decision support systems and the training of police officers. The results doalso provide new insights into the psychology o crime.
In the present study, geographic mobility exhibited by child sex offenders was examined. Geographic mobility was defined as the use of multiple locations to obtain repetitive sexual contact with the same victim. The sample consisted of 77 adult offenders convicted for having committed a sexual offence against a child, and who agreed to provide confidential self-report data concerning their offending behaviours. Based on a set of offence characteristics, offenders who used a single location were compared to offenders who used multiple locations for sexual contact. Results showed that offenders who used multiple locations are more likely to isolate the victim, use violence, involve the victim in several sexual episodes, abuse the victim for a period exceeding one year, and make the victim participate and perform sexual behaviours on them during sexual episodes. Examining more closely offenders who used multiple locations for abuse, three offence patterns were further identified (i.e., familial-low mobility offence, non familial-high mobility offence, and familial-high mobility offence). Going for a car ride was also found to be a common location/situation used in the familial-low mobility offence subgroup, while the use of outdoor locations on a regular basis was found to be rare in high mobility patterns subgroups.
Technique known as centrography are presented in order to demonstrate their utility for describing and measuring the salient features of a spatial distribution and for facilitating temporal and comparative analyses in discerning trends and contrasting spatial distributions of crime. Centrographic techniques are applied to a 5-year data set of lone-assailant rapes classified by type of offender. The results indicate that different classes of offenders have relatively distinctive spatial distributions. Moreover, changes in the spatial distributions of offender classes, through time, are not uniform.
Prior explanations of the distributions of crime have tended to emphasize the criminal intentions of people without considering adequately the circumstances in which criminal acts occur. This paper examines how community structure generates these circumstances and applies Amos Hawley's human ecological theory in treating criminal acts as routine activities which feed upon other routine activities. For example, we consider how married women in the labor force, persons living alone, and lightweight durable goods provide offenders with circumstances favorable for carrying out certain illegal acts. We examine in particular how directcontact predatory violations require the convergence in space and time of offenders, suitable targets,and the absence of effective guardians.Various trends in the social structure can alter crime rates by affecting the likelihood of this convergence, without necessarily requiring changes in the criminal inclinations of individuals.
Crime has long been thought to be intimately associated with the physical environment in which it occurs. Theoretical and empirical developments over the past 20 years demonstrate that this relationship is complex and varies substantially at different levels of spatial and temporal resolution. Research on the distribution of property crimes in time and space resonates with research on the target selection processes of offenders to suggest that crime is strongly related to aggregate elements of the perceived physical environment: nodes, paths, edges and an environmental backcloth. The relationship between crime and the physical environment is mediated through individual awareness and action spaces. This implies a series of research issues and crime control policies for future exploration.
The aim of the current article is to review the theoretical, empirical, and practical issues related to the spatial behavior of sex offenders. After describing three theoretical models related to geographic profiling, empirical studies are presented that investigate the links between offender characteristics, modus operandi variables, and the distances traveled by sex offenders. Different spatial typologies of sex offenders and investigative strategies that take into account the spatial component of criminal behavior are discussed.
The results of this study reveal a major methodological problem with an established body of criminological literature—the journey to crime. The dominant finding of such research is that most crimes occur close to an offender's home. Consequently, journeys to crime typically display a distance-decay function that is assumed to exist between and within offenders. However, most journey-to-crime studies use nested data—individual offenders contributing multiple crime trips—yet employ analytic methods that fail to account for this property, leading to inference and aggregation concerns. In the study outlined in this article, we demonstrated the implications of using nested data for analyzing the journey to crime. We showed that once controlling for nesting, only a few (prolific) offenders display a distance decay pattern. Implications of the findings for theory and future research are discussed. Yes Yes
The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.