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Tilts, global tectonics and earthquake prediction
Abstract and Figures
Read more about the monograph and the related research in supplementary material.
Contents:
1. INTRODUCTION
2. EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY / ACCIDENTALITY (Kalenda)
3. THEORY OF EXTERNAL FORCES (Neumann, Kalenda, Skalský, Kopf, Wandrol)
4. EXPERIMENTS WITH SEISMICITY AND TESTS OF EFFECTS (Kalenda, Málek, Skalský, Ostřihanský)
5. VERTICAL STATIC PENDULUM (Neumann)
6. PENDULUM MEASUREMENT RESULTS – TILTS (Kalenda, Neumann)
7. INTERPRETATION OF PENDULUM MEASUREMENT (Kalenda, Neumann)
8. COMPARISON OF PENDULUM MEASUREMENT WITH OTHER METHODS (Kalenda)
9. PLATE MOVEMENT MECHANISM (Kalenda, Neumann, Procházka, Ostřihanský)
10. EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION (Kalenda, Neumann)
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Supplementary resource (1)
... Only factual historical documents were consulted from variety of cases with reports of thermal, atmospheric, geochemical hydrothermal, acoustic, animal behavior, and electromagnetic phenomenon being observed before and during the seismic events. Other observational facts that have been widely reported include: (a) deformation precursors [Wyss et al., 1981;Mogi, 1985;Neresov and Latynina, 1992;Kalenda et al., 2012]; (b) geochemical precursors [Irwin and Barnes, 1980;Wakita, 1982;Zia, 1984;Gold and Soter, 1985;King, 1986;Thomas, 1988;Toutain and Baubron, 1998;Martinelli et al., 2000;Cicerone et al., 2009;Fu et al., 2015]; (c) thermal infrared [Qiang et al., 1991;Tronin, 1996;Tronin et al., 2002Tronin et al., , 2004Tramutoli et al., 2001Tramutoli et al., , 2005Ouzounov and Freund, 2004;Ouzounov et al., 2007;Saraf and Choudhury, 2005]; (d) latent heat [Cervone et al., 2002;Dey and Singh, 2003]; (e) earthquake clouds [Morozova, 1996;Guo and Xie, 2007;Doda et al., 2013]; (f) earthquake lights [Stothers, 2004;St-Laurent et al., 2006]; (g) jet stream [Wu, 2004;Wu et al., 2015]; (h) air temperature and humidity [Mil'kis, 1986;Dunajecka and Pulinets, 2005], and atmospheric pressure [Bokov, 2010]; (9) VHF signals Fujiwara et al., 2004]; (i) VLF signals Hayakawa, 2004Hayakawa, , 2011Rozhnoi et al., 2007]; (j) GPS associated total electron content (TEC) Pulinets et al., 2006b;Zakharenkova et al., 2006;Kon et al., 2010]. Ari Ben-Menahem (1995) warned the seismological community that: "Seismology has reached a stage where its lofty goals will not be reached by seismologists alone and unless we launch an interdisciplinary research and observational effort, we shall always be surprised by the next major earthquake." ...
We apply interdisciplinary observations to study earthquake processes, their physics, and the phenomena that precede their energy release. Our approach is based on multisensor observations of short‐term pre‐earthquake phenomena preceding large earthquakes (M > 6). The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework is our method for validation and is based on a sensor web of several physical and environmental parameters (satellite thermal infrared radiation (STIR), electron concentration in the ionosphere, air temperature, and relative humidity measurements) that were associated with earthquakes. The scientific rationale for multidisciplinary analysis is founded on the concept lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling. To check the predictive potential of pre‐earthquake signals we validate in retrospective and prospective modes. Our validation processes consist of two steps: (a) a retrospective analysis preformed over three different regions with high seismic activity (M 6.0 Napa of 2014, M 6.0 Taiwan of 2016, and M 7.0 Kumamoto, Japan of 2016); (b) testing of Molchan's error diagram (MED) for STIR and differential total electron content anomalous events over Japan and Taiwan. Our findings suggest that: (a) pre‐earthquake signals (with 1–30 days time lag) follow a general temporal–spatial evolution pattern; (b) pre‐earthquake atmospheric anomalies can provide short‐term predictive information for the occurrence of major earthquakes in the tested regions.
... Nevertheless periodicities of occurring earthquakes give in some cases relatively precise prediction in the long time scale. Repetitions of earthquakes are evident on lunar nodal periodicity 18.61 years, as it is remarked by Kalenda et al. 2011 andKilston andKnopoff 1983. On the base of this periodicity some earthquakes can be predicted, as it has been done in HinduKush Mts (Ostřihanský 2016a) ...
... Both anomalous microseisms maxima occur in the period of longest days (and the slowest Earth's rotation). The subsurface discontinuities (interlayer boundaries, sub-horizontal faults) are stressed as much as possible at these periods, when the upper layers creep to the west in comparison with the lower layers as shown, e.g., Ostřihanský (in Kalenda andKalenda et al. 2012). Therefore, the western drift, as was described by many authors (Ostřihanský 2004;Scoppola et al. 2006;Crespi et al. 2007) can be generated in these periods. ...
Annual drift is typical for microseisms. We propose a model based on thermoelastic wave generation that explains the highest microseisms during winter using higher stress level at the same time. If we remove the average influence of the background stress from the microseisms, we obtain the residual microseisms, which show the semiannual periods with maxima in March and October. The histogram of anomalous microseisms has the same form as the variations in Length of the Day (LOD). This phenomenon is recognized as a secondary order mechanism after the annual drift. The synoptic situations and earthquakes were recognized as imminent triggers of anomalous microseisms. This synoptic situation is consistent with the uplift of the northern part of Europe after ice cap melting.
Evidence of kilometre scale uplift and subsidence at locations remote from any recognised plate boundaries, the existence of mega-sequences of post-rift marine sediments over widespread intra-cratonic areas, and the consideration that pulses of deposition display a clear periodicity and synchronicity over widely dispersed spatial domains, remain largely unresolved issues within current geological theory. While the exact timing of uplift and erosion associated with major unconformities are difficult to assess, the age of sediments immediately above provide vital temporal markers for the onset of subsidence and associated sea level rise. By reconsidering the much studied sedimentary sequences of the Grand and Bryce Canyon areas the following will show that the at least over the Phanerozoic eon the initiation of new pulses of deposition occur at times when earth climate is emerging from ice-house to hot-house conditions. Furthermore, the recorded periods in which global occurrences of epeirogeny have occurred will be shown to correlate closely with the end of hot-house periods and the onset of ice-house global climate conditions. Finally, some tentative thermo-geodynamic explanations for this apparent causal link between global climate and vertical tectonics will be suggested.
Tides as triggers of earthquakes in Nepal
Odesílatel: Wesztergom Viktor <wv@ggki.hu>
31. října 2015 17:34- 31.10. (20 dnů)
Kopie: jszendroi49@gmail.com <jszendroi49@gmail.com> , varga@seismology.hu <varga@seismology.hu> , Karsten@gfi.uib.no <Karsten@gfi.uib.no> , onlineservice@springer.com <onlineservice@springer.com>
Dear Sir,
I appreciate very much your efforts in seeking the possible prediction of earthquakes and reduce the risk of them, but I'm fully convinced that AGG is not the proper journal for your manuscript. If you consider it as a local interest of Nepal, please address directly to local authorities or scientific community, if it is of general importance, submit it to a more specific seismological journal.
Thank you for your kind understanding!
Dr. Wesztergom Viktor
Editor in Chief
Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica
TECTO10760: Manuscript out of Scope
Odesílatel: Tectonophysics <tecto-eo@elsevier.com>
20. listopadu 2015 11:36- včera v 11:36
Dear Dr. Ostrihansky,
I acknowledge with thanks the safe receipt of the manuscript "Tides a triggers of eartquakes in Nepal". I note, however, that your contribution only partly fits within the scope of our journal. I believe that the subject dealt with is more suitable for a journal such as that mentioned below.
Your present submission will be removed from the EES site, but thank you for considering this journal.
Kind regards,
Iswarya Samikannu
Journal Manager
Tectonophysics
Forces moving plates are of two kinds: Force moving plates to the north and force moving plates to the west. They are both, by their origin, related to tidal forces but they act in quite different way. The northward force acts by its center in meridian, the westward force acts in direction of geographic parallels. Tidal forces of semidiurnal and diurnal periods cannot move plates because triggering of earthquakes by the stress of these amplitudes gives statistically insignificant results confirmed by many reports for more than 100 years. However the tidal forces acting on 10 km Earth’s rotation bulges and the periodic Earth’s deformations resulting in Earth’s rotation variations give strong forces energetically equivalent to energy of large earthquakes. Oceanic lithosphere older than 180 M.Y. drops down to the mantle by gravity or is liquidated being overridden beneath continent. At that movement the released space facilitates the plate movement by tides. Hotspots firmly anchored in mantle show by tracks an exact movement of plates. Mantle convection is disregarded because it contradicts to existence of mid-ocean ridges triple junctions. Not Polfluchtkraft but Äquatorkraft force the tides create, which can move the large continent (for example Gondwana) far from equator as far as the pole, where after decay the Antarctica remains being out of tidal forces actions.
This article shows how the probabilistic SBRA (Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment) Method (i.e. stochastic Monte Carlo approach) is applied to the model of the behaviour of the lithosphere of the Earth (geomechanical model). The main idea is based on the genesis of thermoelastic waves (i.e. influence of our Son) due to thermal expansion of the rock mass and the ratcheting mechanisms. SBRA method applied in this problem is a new and innovative trend for modelling in mechanics.
Earthquake populations have recently been postulated to be an example of a self-organized critical (SOC) phenomenon, with fractal spatial and temporal correlations and a power-law distribution of seismic energy or moment corresponding to the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude law. In fact, strict SOC behavior is not seen in all models and is confined to those with weak annealed (permanent) heterogeneity and an intermediate tectonic driving velocity or strain energy rate. Type examples of all three types of behavior are shown, lending support to a generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law to a modified gamma distribution (a power law in energy or moment with an exponential tail with positive, zero, or negative argument. -from Author
Earthquake Prediction is the ultimate goal for geoscientists. This volume presents the latest ideas of the ever fascinating and challenging research of earthquake prediction. Sunspot activity and Coronal mass ejection are considered to be influential phenomena in affecting both the electric as well as the magnetic characteristics of sun-earth environment. All these changes have been observed before the occurrence of earthquakes and tsunami in various parts of the earth. A session on Earthquake Prediction, chaired by Dr. Saumitra Mukerjee was held during the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, (Vienna, Austria, April 2005). The EGU General Assembly was able to bring together 8000 geoscientists from all over Europe and the rest of the world into one meeting covering all disciplines of the Earth and Planetary Sciences. This book presents the 7 papers presented in the session on Earthquake Prediction.
The underground gases escape successively along the different active tectonic parts before earthquakes. The temperature in the earthquake region and its vicinity continuously rises due to the effect of particle bombardment or electric field excitation to the gases. In 1989, 15 earthquakes M≥5.1 in and around China have been summarised. It is found that among them there are obvious thermal infrared anomaly phenomena prior to 11 earthquakes. It is advantageous to use the thermal infrared (IR) radiation of meteosat to detect the ground temperature with a high accuracy of data, a large coverage area, a large amount of information and the capability of capturing the time-space dynamic variation of the temperature-increase before earthquakes. -from Authors
This book provides the reader with a holistic approach to earthquake modeling and prediction. The lithosphere is studied as a hierarchical nonlinear dissipative system in which the predictability of earthquakes, aftershock activities and the variation of seismic activity is analyzed. More specialized models taking into account regional aspects are investigated. The reader will learn to pose the problem of earthquake prediction using a successive step-by-step approach, narrowing down the time interval, territory and magnitude range where a strong earthquake can be expected. The book is written for researchers in geophysics and applied mathematics but may also serve as an advanced textbook for graduate students wishing to enter the field.
We present first results of the study of possible relations between the seismic activity and crustal fluids (groundwater andcarbon dioxide) in the area of the Hronov-Poříčí Fault Zone (HPFZ), situated on the NE margin of the Bohemian Massif. Local seismic monitoring and observations of groundwater levels in deep wells and concentrations of carbon-dioxide in the mineral spring at Třtice was started in 2005. Since then, more than 30 local seismic events were observed in the area of the HPFZ. The two strongest earthquakes with macroseismic effects were recorded on August 10, 2005 (M = 2.4) and October25, 2005 (M = 3.3). Most of the epicentres were situated along the central part of the HPFZ. Only some weak events fromFebruary and March 2006 were concentrated along the SE termination of the HPFZ. Results of the hydrological monitoringshow that water level fluctuations are affected mainly by the precipitation, snow-melt, air pressure changes, and tidal deformations of the Earth’s crust. The effects of seismo-tectonic activity were detected only in one out of five water wells, where we observed several step-like water level anomalies with amplitudes of 4 to 15 cm. Two of them preceded the August10, 2005 and October 25, 2005 earthquakes. Three other anomalies seemed to originate independently of the seismic activity.We therefore suppose that they were induced by aseismic movements along the HPFZ. Contrary to the water level fluctuations, CO2 concentrations in the mineral spring seem to be dependent on water temperature; no evident seismic-induced changes have been observed yet. © 2007, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic. All rights reserved.
One of the intriguing aspects of the appalling crisis created by the earthquake in Sichuan on May 12—whose death toll as I write is over 40,000 and still rising—has been the role played by rumor. Just four days before the quake, the Sichuan provincial government issued a notice designed to quell “earthquake rumors.” Three days after it, on May15, Xinhua news agency announced that seventeen people had been arrested for circulating malicious rumors, and the Ministry of Public Security revealed that its bureaus in eleven provinces and municipalities had discovered more than forty messages on the internet that “spread false information, made sensational statements and sapped public confidence.” In the weeks leading up to May 12, warnings of an imminent earthquake emanated from various quarters. Most significantly, Li Shihui, a scientist at the laboratory of geo-mechanical engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, claimed on his blog that in April the seismologist, Geng Qingguo, vice-chair of the Committee for Natural Disaster Prediction at the China Geophysical Institute, had predicted a quake of 7 or more on the Richter scale in the Aba Tibetan and Qiang autonomous prefecture of Sichuan. On April 30, he claimed, the Committee for Natural Disaster Prediction had passed on a confidential report about his prediction to the China Seismology Bureau. Others less qualified posted warnings of an earthquake on their blogs, although most were vague on detail. On May 7, allegedly, a geological worker from Wuhan posted a notice on the internet predicting that an earthquake would strike on 12 May: “the epicenter should be quite near Wuhan. I hope Wuhan residents who see my blog will inform all relatives and friends and take precautions.” Another blogger claimed to have an uncle working in the Sichuan Seismological Bureau: “Even when there were already signs indicating an earthquake, the Sichuan Seismological Bureau still suppressed and failed to report the information, completely disregarding people’s lives.” On the basis of internet chat and reports in the press, a slew of rumors began to circulate that caused many citizens to contact their local earthquake prevention and disaster relief boards. Anxiety seems to have run particularly high in Aba county, specifically mentioned as the epicenter in Geng Qingguo’s unpublished report, and significantly, a major center of pro-Tibetan riots a couple of weeks earlier. The authorities were quick to deny the rumors. On May 9, the Sichuan provincial government issued a statement: