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PURPOSE
These Best Practice Principles are intended
to lead to better consideration of climate
change in decisions and render them
more sustainable. In particular, they are
intended to help practitioners integrate
climate change considerations into both
project-level and strategic-level impact
assessments (IA). By doing so, they will
also help decision-makers to commission
and review IAs and stakeholders to
ensure that climate change concerns are
addressed in development planning and
analysis.
The systematic application of IA alerts
decision makers to risks, to actions
required to maintain local, regional
and global ecosystems, and to steps
needed to ensure the long-term success of
development activities.
BACKGROUND
These Best Practice Principles were
developed by an international group
of IAIA members following two special
symposia on climate change and impact
assessment organized by the IAIA
and held in Aalborg, Denmark and
Washington, D.C. in 2010.
Comments are welcome at any time and
should be forwarded to info@iaia.org.
HOW TO CITE THIS PUBLICATION
Byer, P., Cestti, R., Croal, P., Fisher, W.,
Byer, P., Cestti, R., Croal, P., Fisher, W.,
Hazell, S., Kolhoff, A., and Kørnøv,
Hazell, S., Kolhoff, A., and Kørnøv,
L. (2012)
L. (2012)
Climate Change in Impact
Climate Change in Impact
Assessment: International Best Practice
Assessment: International Best Practice
Principles. Special Publication Series No. 8.
Principles. Special Publication Series No. 8.
Fargo, USA: International Association for
Fargo, USA: International Association for
Impact Assessment.
Impact Assessment.
AUTHORS
Principal Author: Philip Byer.
Principal Author: Philip Byer.
Co-authors: Rita Cestti, Peter Croal,
Co-authors: Rita Cestti, Peter Croal,
Weston Fisher, Stephen Hazell, Arend
Weston Fisher, Stephen Hazell, Arend
Kolhoff, and Lone Kørnøv.
Kolhoff, and Lone Kørnøv.
Climate Change in Impact Assessment
Climate Change in Impact Assessment
Climate Change in Impact Assessment
April 2012
Special Publication Series No. 8
IAIA\PUBS\SP8.indd (04/12)
INTERNATIONAL
ASSOCIATION for
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
• Headquarters
1330 23rd Street South, Suite C
Fargo, ND 58103-3705 USA
Phone +1.701.297.7908
Fax +1.701.297.7917
info@iaia.org
www.iaia.org
.
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.
.
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International Best Practice Principles
IAIA statement on climate change
and impact assessment
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, variations of the climate
system are unequivocal and very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic green-
house gas concentrations. Climate change represents a key challenge to the sustainability of
global ecosystems and human prosperity in the twenty-fi rst century. The impacts of climate
change combined with natural climate variability are predominantly negative, and often exac-
erbate other environmental challenges such as degradation of ecosystems, loss of biodiversity,
and air, water and land pollution.
Climate change is a development issue: it diminishes stocks of natural capital and undermines
efforts to alleviate poverty. Climate change is a security issue: it threatens food production
and water supplies and thereby potentially destabilizes the most severely affected states.
Climate change is a health issue: rising temperatures, changes in precipitation, and altered
coastlines affect the presence and spread of diseases. Climate change is also an equity issue:
it primarily affects the livelihood of the poorest in developing countries and diminishes the
ability of future generations to meet their basic needs.
Impact assessment (IA) has much to contribute in assisting governments to meet their in-
ternational commitments to addressing human-induced climate change and understanding
uncertainties relating to climate change effects. IA can also assist industry and the public in
understanding climate change and its effects. IA tools and methodologies for evaluating the
environmental and social consequences of proposed policies, programs, plans, and projects can
be useful in formulating appropriate mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and resilient adaptation measures to reduce and manage the negative effects of climate change
and enhance any positive effects. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in particular is a
critical IA tool to integrate adaptation to climate change into policy-making.
To properly address climate change, IA practitioners should address the following for every
IA of a proposed policy, program, plan or project (hereafter “proposal”). Some of these prin-
ciples apply to all IAs; other principles are applicable to those addressing either mitigation
or adaptation.
CLIMATE CHANGE IN IMPACT ASSESSMENT: INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICE PRINCIPLES
International Association for Impact Assessment
2
Best practice principles
Screening and scoping
As a fi rst step in an IA, it is necessary to identify whether and to what
extent:
i) The proposal will, directly or indirectly, increase or decrease
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
ii) The proposal may be benefi cially or adversely affected by, and
vulnerable to, climate change either directly or indirectly.
iii) Climate change may affect other aspects of the environment
that are potentially affected by the impacts of the proposal.
iv) An objective of the proposal is to use IA to identify alternatives
and measures to mitigate and/or to adapt to climate change.
IA should explicitly address potentially signifi cant effects in each of
the above areas, with the level of detail consistent with the potential
signifi cance of the effects.
Mitigation
Where the proposal will, directly or indirectly, increase or decrease
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the following should also be ad-
dressed in the IA:
Mitigation objectives: Where the country has national or relevant
sectoral climate change plans in which objectives for GHG emissions
have been set, these objectives should be clearly identifi ed and used in
the IA. Where such objectives are not available, the IA should clearly
defi ne the objectives that the proposal is seeking to meet.
Greenhouse gas emissions: The IA should estimate the composition,
magnitude and intensity of GHG emissions for each relevant element
and phase of the proposal. This should be estimated by using a life-cycle
approach and should include any effects of the proposal on carbon sinks.
The estimate of the proposal’s net emissions should be evaluated in
the context of any government or industry best practices and reduction
targets or objectives.
Mitigation measures: Alternative measures should be identifi ed to
reduce GHG emissions directly or indirectly, for example, by expand-
ing the proposal or choosing different technologies or designs. The IA
should explicitly identify and evaluate alternative ways to reduce GHG
emissions for all elements and phases of the proposal.
Cumulative effects: The effects on climate change of any single proposal
may be insignifi cant, but not when considered together with numerous
other past, current and future projects. GHG emissions should therefore
also be considered at a level (typically policy, plan or program) that ad-
dresses the cumulative effects of groups of communities or individual
projects. More signifi cant GHG reductions can be achieved through such
policies, programs and plans, and strategic environmental assessments
(SEA) of them, rather than through individual projects.
Adaptation
Nearly all proposals will in the long run be sensitive to climate variables
and therefore be affected by and vulnerable to climate change. IA can
provide information on the magnitude of those impacts and can provide
alternative ways to lessen such impacts. In addition, IA may be carried
out on proposals whose main purpose is to help adapt to climate change.
Adaptation objectives: Where the country has national or relevant
sectoral climate change plans in which objectives for climate change
adaptation have been set, these objectives should be clearly identifi ed
and used in the IA. Where such objectives are not available, the IA
should clearly defi ne the objectives that the proposal is seeking to meet.
Vulnerability assessment: The degree to which a natural or social and
economic system is susceptible to climate change can be determined
at different levels. The IA should assess to what extent areas, water
resources, land use types, communities and socio-economic groups are
vulnerable or at risk to climate change.
Refi ning the baseline: A changed climate and local weather affects
the baseline environment against which impacts are assessed. Therefore,
for those elements of the environment that are potentially affected by
the proposal, the IA should identify how the baseline environment will
be affected by climate change, and assess impacts against this changed
baseline. At least three climate change scenarios should be addressed:
minimum change, intermediate change and maximum change. Programs
and reports on how to estimate climate parameters for these scenarios
are available and should be consulted-see section below on Resources.
For proposals where the effects of climate change on the baseline
environment are a minor issue, refi ning the baseline may require only
the intermediate climate change to be evaluated. Alternatively, where
climate change is an important issue relative to the proposal, all three
scenarios should be considered.
Adaptation measures: The IA should explicitly identify, evaluate
and select feasible ways that the proposal can be modifi ed now and in
the future to adapt to the effects of a changing climate. Such adapta-
tion measures aim to increase resistance to withstand climate change,
increase resilience to recover from the effects of climate change, and
strengthen the capacity to adapt to climate change. IA can also be used
to help recognize and strengthen coping strategies and the knowledge
systems that provide support for adaptation. They should also be used
to identify, for the range of potential climate change scenarios, feasible
no regret measures that generate net social and/or economic benefi ts
irrespective of whether or not anthropogenic climate change occurs. Ad-
aptation measures should also recognize that climate change is expected
to continue over many decades.
CLIMATE CHANGE IN IMPACT ASSESSMENT: INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICE PRINCIPLES
International Association for Impact Assessment 3
Equity
Consideration of different socio-cultural and socio-economic vulner-
abilities and adaptive capacities within societal groups is an important
component of IA. For example, climate change can affect men’s and
women’s roles and activities in agriculture, water management, land
tenure and livelihoods in new, unplanned ways. Gender issues related to
climate change should therefore be assessed and measures identifi ed to
lessen inequities. Particular attention should also be paid to potentially
disproportionate adverse effects on poor populations in drought-prone,
fl ood-prone, and coastal areas subject to potential climate change impacts.
Synergies between adaptation and mitigation
Mitigation and adaptation may have different and confl icting goals, and
each can have consequences that interact in both positive and negative
ways. The IA should assess the interactions of mitigation and adapta-
tion consequences and measures. Likewise, mitigation and adaptation
have potential synergies with other environmental and social concerns
that need to be addressed in order not to make suboptimal decisions.
Scientifi c information
Information about climate change is rapidly developing. Any assessment
should use the latest, most credible scientifi c information and climate
projections.
Addressing uncertainties
Broad scientifi c consensus exists that the climate is changing; however,
there is signifi cant uncertainty about the precise nature (degree, tim-
ing, etc.) of these changes. The IA should address this uncertainty by
explicitly:
• Considering a reasonable, credible range of possible future
climate scenarios.
• Assessing the effects of climate change on impact predictions.
• Assessing the effects of climate change on the proposal.
Confi dence in the analysis
For each climate change analysis, the IA should provide an explanation
and justifi cation for how the results were obtained (the choices of models
and methodologies and sources of data) and the degree of confi dence that
can be placed on the models and data and on the results. It is recognized
that while quantitative estimates are generally desired, quantitative
analyses may not be feasible or cost-effective and qualitative analyses
must be used; in such cases, the qualitative descriptors should be fully
explained and the predictions justifi ed.
Decision-making
Making decisions about proposals that affect and/or are affected by
climate change presents signifi cant challenges, particularly since the
implications are often long-term and uncertain. Once the climate change
implications, including the uncertainties, are understood, decisions
about the proposal (accept, modify or reject) should be based on the
precautionary principle of "do no harm" and the principles of sustain-
able development.
Follow-up
Once a proposal has been implemented, the actual outcomes may be dif-
ferent from those that were predicted in the IA. The IA should therefore
identify the impact monitoring, evaluation, management and communi-
cation measures that will be carried out for unanticipated impacts after
the proposal has been implemented. This should include an adaptive
management plan to be able to respond to changing climate conditions.
IAIA's EIA Follow-Up International Best Practice Principles should be
consulted for more information.
Transparency and stakeholder participation
All people who are potentially affected by the proposal and would like to
participate in the assessment process should be able to understand how
climate change has been addressed. Each aspect of the IA, based on the
principles outlined above from screening through decision-making and
plans for follow-up, should be communicated and explained in clear,
easy-to-read language, and the relevant documents should be readily
accessible to those interested. IAIA's Public Participation Best Practice
Principles should be consulted for more information.
Operationalizing these principles
These Best Practice Principles provide a starting point for ensuring that
this critical environmental issue is properly addressed in impact as-
sessments. The following will be needed to implement these principles
effectively:
• Commitments by governments and businesses to addressing cli-
mate change before making decisions about proposed policies,
plans, programs, and projects.
• Cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral coordination that often
cuts across existing organizational structures.
• Use of the knowledge held by local and Indigenous people who
have lived on or near the land that could be affected by climate
change; such knowledge can be extremely useful in establish-
ing the baseline, conducting trends analysis and identifying and
evaluating mitigation and adaptation measures.
• Education and targeted capacity-building of IA practitioners on
ways to address climate change in IA, and more detailed guide-
lines developed with input from the broad range of stakeholders
interested in climate change.
• Assistance by experienced communication specialists to help
inform decision-makers of the relevance and implications of
climate change to the proposal.
CLIMATE CHANGE IN IMPACT ASSESSMENT: INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICE PRINCIPLES
International Association for Impact Assessment
4
Glossary
Adopted from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC 2007,
and Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC 1992.
Adaptation: Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of
natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change
effects. (IPCC)
Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change
to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or
to cope with the consequences. (IPCC)
Climate change: A change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability ob-
served over comparable time periods. (UNFCCC). A change in the state
of the climate that can be identifi ed by changes in the mean and/or the
variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer. (IPCC)
Mitigation: Technological change and substitution that reduce resource
inputs and emissions per unit of output…. Implementing policies to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks. (IPCC)
Uncertainty: An expression of the degree to which a value (e.g., the
future state of the climate system) is unknown. Uncertainty can result
from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or
even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from quantifi able
errors in the data to ambiguously defi ned concepts or terminology, or
uncertain projections of human behaviour. (IPCC)
Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, and un-
able to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system
is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. (IPCC)
Resources
A growing body of information is available on climate change and IA,
including guidelines and web-based tools developed by other groups, to
help understand, predict and address future climate change in impact
assessments. Listed below are some of the guidelines and best practice
documents that have been developed by other organizations. These, as
well as other documents and links to internet websites, are available
through IAIA's web site (www.iaia.org). IAIA encourages others to
contribute information to this site by contacting IAIA.
Guidelines developed by other organizations
1. Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency, “Incorporating
Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Assessment:
General Guidance for Practitioners,” prepared by The Federal-
Provincial-Territorial Committee on Climate Change and
Environmental Assessment, 2003.
2. Institute of Environmental Management & Assessment,
“Principles Series: Climate Change Adaptation & EIA,” and
“Principles Series: Climate Change Mitigation & EIA,” 2010.
3. Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment,
“NCEA's Recommendations on Climate Change in
Environmental Assessment,” 2007.
4. Nova Scotia Environment (Canada), “Guide to Considering
Climate Change in Environmental Assessments in Nova
Scotia,” and “Guide to Considering Climate Change in Project
Development in Nova Scotia,” 2011.
5. OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC), “Strategic
Environmental Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change,”
2010 .
6. Scottish Government, Environmental Assessment Team,
“Consideration of Climate Factors within Strategic Environmental
Assessment (SEA),” 2010.
