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Do Alternative Energy Sources Displace Fossil Fuels?
Abstract
A fundamental, generally implicit, assumption of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change reports and many energy analysts is that each
unit of energy supplied by non-fossil-fuel sources takes the place of a
unit of energy supplied by fossil-fuel sources. However, owing to the
complexity of economic systems and human behaviour, it is often the case
that changes aimed at reducing one type of resource consumption, either
through improvements in efficiency of use or by developing substitutes,
do not lead to the intended outcome when net effects are considered.
Here, I show that the average pattern across most nations of the world
over the past fifty years is one where each unit of total national
energy use from non-fossil-fuel sources displaced less than one-quarter
of a unit of fossil-fuel energy use and, focusing specifically on
electricity, each unit of electricity generated by non-fossil-fuel
sources displaced less than one-tenth of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated
electricity. These results challenge conventional thinking in that they
indicate that suppressing the use of fossil fuel will require changes
other than simply technical ones such as expanding non-fossil-fuel
energy production.
... Mathai et al. [97] similarly contend that "greater efficiency (technical and economic) in the throughput of matter and energy is a necessary but insufficient condition for guiding energy and resource use policies in the present context". The role of renewable energy in green growth frameworks has also been a subject of debate, with several studies indicating that renewable energy projects have largely expanded the total energy supply rather than replaced fossil fuels [98][99][100][101]. Riedlingstein et al. [102], for example, found that emissions from fossil fuels increased by 1.1% in 2023 compared to 2022 levels despite significant growth in renewable energy development. ...
... Relies on uncertain technological advancements and energy efficiency without consideration for rebound effects [80,[87][88][89][91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99][100][101][102]. Reduces carbon emissions through green market intervention strategies, such as cap-and-trade systems [21,[30][31][32]. ...
... Existing evidence suggests that we are unlikely to avoid catastrophic levels of warming within a growth-based model. The significant body of research centered around the links between economic growth and climate change [34,35,[98][99][100][101][102][103][104][105][106][107][108]230] in many ways does demonstrate an inherent incompatibility between endless economic growth and climate stability on both theoretical and empirical levels. Given that our economy is highly energy-intensive, still relying mostly on fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, the demand for continuous growth drives increased energy consumption, further exacerbating carbon greenhouse gas emissions [231,232]. ...
As global temperatures continue to rise, those in favor of rapid climate mitigation face critical questions regarding maintaining current levels of economic growth. On a global scale, there remains a clear positive correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions, leading many climate scientists to call for a move away from a growth-focused economy. In this article, we draw from recent research to compare possible outcomes in terms of social well-being and climate mitigation for green growth and degrowth pathways. Green growth aims to maintain economic growth while reducing carbon emissions. Degrowth calls for a purposeful contraction of economic growth in wealthy countries. Drawing from recent studies, we compile evidence to compare these pathways and assess how each of these key strategies is evaluated and framed in the literature. We find that research indicates clear differences between these pathways in terms of mitigation potential and risks to human welfare, and we call for future research on specific topics related to a degrowth transition. Additionally, we identify issues of feasibility as primary concerns within both paradigms.
... Thus, it is crucial that biogas is used as a replacement of fossil energy for the implementation of biogas production to be environmentally beneficial. The actual impacts on the market are highly uncertain due to the complexity of economic systems and human behavior (Ekvall & Weidema 2004;Plevin et al. 2014;York 2012). The increased production of biogas in a region will have effects on the price of energy in the region, which could have an impact on the regional demand, with secondary effects on the global market with high associated uncertainty (Plevin et al. 2014). ...
... The increased production of biogas in a region will have effects on the price of energy in the region, which could have an impact on the regional demand, with secondary effects on the global market with high associated uncertainty (Plevin et al. 2014). As shown in the market modelling study of York (2012), it is not enough to produce more bioenergy to achieve a corresponding decrease in fossil energy use; this needs to come hand in hand with policy instruments. ...
... In several impact categories, the barley yield has a high impact through indirect effects of the substitution of other barley production, which results as one of the most impactful processes in several impact categories, with both positive and negative effects on the environment. As discussed in relation to natural gas substitution, the substitution of crop production is also highly uncertain, due to uncertainty in the actual effect on the yields and due to the complexity of the economy (Ekvall & Weidema 2004;York 2012). Especially the modelling of indirect effects related to substitution of straw in heat production adds another level of uncertainty, meaning that these results should be interpreted with care. ...
Cover crops offer a potential biogas feedstock, and to enable continuous operation of the biogas plant, ensiling can be used for biomass preservation. The aim of the present study was to assess the environmental impacts of biogas production at an organic dairy farm for two modelled scenarios: (1) harvesting and ensiling of cover crops and cereal straw and co-digestion with cattle manure, or (2) mono-digestion of cattle manure and direct cover crop soil incorporation. The biogas scenarios were modelled in a consequential LCA in relation to a common baseline without anaerobic digestion, with cover crop soil incorporation and field application of raw cattle manure. Biogas scenarios resulted in decreased global warming impacts of (1) 250 and (2) 120 Mg CO2eq for a 1000-hectare example dairy farm due to substitution of natural gas. However, emissions from ensiling, biogas plant operation, and agronomic effects increased other environmental impacts. Agronomic modelling with the Daisy model showed a crop yield increase of 0.11 Mg DM ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ on a sandy loam soil with cover crop digestion, but also an increase in N leaching of 38% and a decrease in soil C stocks of 8.1 Mg C ha⁻¹ over 100 years relative to the reference. Emissions of VOCs and NOx during ensiling increased ozone formation and negative impacts on human health and ecosystems, although further research is needed to better understand these emissions. In conclusion, this modelling study shows that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by using ensiled cover crops for co-digestion with manure when biogas is used to substitute fossil gas, although trade-offs with other environmental categories must be considered.
... [1,2] Nowadays, fossil fuels still serve as the conventional energy substances in human society. [3][4][5] The over-consumption of non-renewable fossil fuels has led to serious issues such as energy shortage and environmental pollution. [6][7][8][9][10][11] Aiming at mitigating the unsustainable situation in both energy and environmental fields, catalysis in the development of clean energy is expected to provide technical support for the future energy supply. ...
... PEI simultaneously worked as a surfactant, linker agent, and functional agent. Using calix [4]arenes as platform molecules, a more stable Au NPs was obtained in comparison with citrates capping. [89] Ma et al. reported a size-controllable synthesis of cucurbit [6]uril (CB [6]) modified Au (AuÀ CB [6]) NPs by appropriately adjusting the concentration of CB [6]. ...
... Except for the fuel tolerance, electrocatalytic durability plays an equally important role in efficient ORR catalysts. Au NPs functionalized with a covalently bound monolayer of calix [4]arenes were developed as ORR catalysts, in which calix [4]arenes helped to enhance the exceptional colloidal robustness toward halides or extreme pH compared to the citrate-stabilized Au NPs. [89] In addition to the ligand effect of metallic nanocrystals towards ORR, carbon-based materials with/without active metal sites have also been proven to deliver a ligand effect. ...
The development of efficient catalytic materials in the energy field could promote the structural transformation from traditional fossil fuels to sustainable energy. In heterogeneous catalytic reactions, ligand modification is an effective way to regulate both electronic and steric structures of catalytic sites, thus paving a prospective avenue to design the interfacial structures of heterogeneous catalysts for energy conversion. Although great achievements have been obtained for the study and applications of heterogeneous ligand‐modified catalysts, the systematical refinements of ligand modification strategies are still lacking. Here, we reviewed the ligand modification strategy from both the mechanistic and applicable scenarios by focusing on heterogeneous electrocatalysis. We elucidated the ligand‐modified catalysts in detail from the perspectives of basic concepts, preparation, regulation of physicochemical properties of catalytic sites, and applications in different electrocatalysis. Notably, we bridged the electrocatalytic performance with the electronic/steric effects induced by ligand modification to gain intrinsic structure‐performance relations. We also discussed the challenges and future perspectives of ligand modification strategies in heterogeneous catalysis.
... The literature has mainly focused on substituting fossil fuel energy with clean energy types, such as nuclear (York 2012;Michaelides and Michaelides 2020;Greiner et al. 2022) and renewable (Kramarz et al. 2021). Also, there are some studies that consider nuclear and renewable energy simultaneously (e.g. ...
... Overall, the empirical analysis-based studies generally imply that there is a displacement between nuclear and renewable energy (e.g. Apergis et al. 2010;York 2012;Jin and Kim 2018;Gyamfi et al. 2021;Greiner et al. 2022;Karlılar Pata and Balcılar 2024), whereas some studies argue that there is not a displacement (e.g. Saidi and Mbarek 2016). ...
... In the 19th century, William Stanley Jevons observed that improvements in the efficiency of steam engines led to an increase in coal consumption, identifying what is now referred to as the Jevons paradox (24). Building on this work, York (25)(26)(27) identified the displacement paradox based on the observation that potential substitutes for a resource, such as renewable energy for fossil fuels, often do not suppress the consumption of that established resource. This research tradition suggests that we should consider whether aquaculture systems head-off environmental concerns. ...
... The displacement paradox has been most explored in the realm of energy consumption. An analysis of time-series, cross-national data found that the use of non-fossil fuel energy only had a minimal effect on national fossil fuel consumption, where it typically required between 4 and 13 units of non-fossil fuel energy to displace one unit of fossil fuel energy (26). A more recent analysis found that since 1990s, there is a trend to rising displacement of fossil fuels by renewables, but the level of displacement remains low (64). ...
We review literature on the displacement paradox and the Jevons paradox, with consideration of their implications for the potential effects of aquaculture on wild fisheries. The Jevons paradox refers to circumstances where improvements in the efficiency of resource use lead to growth in consumption and therefore undermine conservation. The displacement paradox refers to circumstances where increasing use of a potential substitute for a resource (e.g., farmed fish) does not lead to proportionate reduction in consumption of the other resource (e.g., wild fish). The literature on the displacement paradox and the Jevons paradox suggests that there may be unantici-pated consequences from the rise of aquaculture that may be detrimental for fisheries conservation. Here, we present theoretical explanations, drawing on the tragedy of the commodity, for understanding the tendencies for these technological paradoxes to occur and emphasize their relevance for concerns associated with fisheries and aquaculture systems.
... A significant body of additional relevant work in the literature suggests that locally produced fossil fuels or renewable energy could at least partially replace imported energy [12,15]. On the other hand, York [13] points out that non-fossil gasoline use is not a substitute for fossil gasoline utilization on a single scale. Alternatively, it might be necessary to substitute between four and ten units of non-fossil fuel energy for every unit of energy from fossil fuels. ...
... Finally, and most importantly, net energy imports are significantly related to renewable energy consumption at a 1% significance level, similar to the findings of Wei, Ni, and Shen [11], Solangi, Islam, Saidur, Rahim, and Fayaz [12], and Schmidt, Gruber, Klingler, Klöckl, Camargo, Regner, Turkovska, Wehrle and Wetterlund [15] and contrary to the findings of York [13] and York [14]. An increase in net energy imports of 1% decreases renewable energy consumption by 0.00378 for oil-exporting countries and by 0.03 for oil-importing countries, which is ten times more. ...
This paper delves into the critical determinants of renewable energy consumption, focusing on the contrasting roles of oil imports and exports. It aims to bridge the knowledge gap by comparing these determinants across both oil-importing and oil-exporting nations, offering a comprehensive and nuanced perspective to inform policy recommendations. Using annual data from 1990 to 2018 sourced from the World Bank database, the study employs panel multiple regression analysis and adopts a fixed effects model to explore two main questions: What drives the use of renewable energy sources? How does a country’s oil importer or exporter status affect these factors? The findings reveal a significant but inverse relationship between oil rents and renewable energy consumption (REC) for both types of countries. Additionally, there is a notable negative correlation between GDP growth and REC for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Interestingly, the crude oil average closing price and inflation show an insignificant impact on REC in both contexts. The study also highlights that net energy imports significantly affect REC, with a much stronger inverse relationship in oil-importing countries compared with oil-exporting ones. For oil-importing countries, diversifying energy sources is a crucial investment. Governments should prioritize research and development in renewable energy to spur technological advancements, enhancing efficiency and affordability. Economic growth-promoting policies, such as tax incentives and subsidies for renewable energy businesses, are vital for encouraging sustainable practices. Consistent, long-term policies are essential for providing investor confidence and supporting the transition to renewable energy. For oil-exporting countries, similar strategies are recommended. Additionally, allocating a portion of oil revenues to renewable energy infrastructure and funding research and development in renewable technologies through local universities and startups are crucial steps. This dual approach will not only enhance energy diversification but also foster innovation and sustainability in the energy sector.
... However, their efficacy in reducing oil dependence is less clear. For instance, York (2012) estimates that reducing fossil fuel consumption by one unit requires between 4 and 13 additional units of renewable energy, while Chien and Hu (2008) find that renewable energy expansion does not necessarily displace imported energy but may increase overall imports. Given persistent lock-in dynamics, policy effectiveness in reducing oil dependence may vary depending on the stage of the transition (Jacobsson and Lauber, 2006). ...
The European Union's reliance on imported fossil fuels, especially oil, has been highlighted by the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, exposing vulnerabilities in energy security. This study examines the drivers of international oil dependency, emphasising technological and trade lock-ins. Employing complex network theory and panel data models, it evaluates trade patterns and the effectiveness of environmental policies in mitigating oil dependency across EU countries from 1999 to 2019. Results indicate that trade lock-ins deepen dependency, especially for countries with strong geopolitical ties to major oil exporters. Stringent environmental policies, including energy taxes and technology-push initiatives, are shown to facilitate the ecological transition, with public R&D investments in renewable energy technologies playing a pivotal role. Countries with a comparative advantage in low-carbon technology exports benefit most from such investments. Importantly, no evidence supports the green paradox, confirming that well-designed policies can harmonise decarbonization and economic stability. The findings underscore the need for EU-wide strategies to address disparities in energy dependency. Recommendations include increasing public investment in clean energy innovation, diversifying energy imports, and fostering intra-EU collaboration to capitalise on renewable technology export potential.
... It may be the case, indeed, that an increased installed capacity of renewable energy technologies is accompanied by an increase in oil consumption, if final energy consumption grows (York and Bell, 2019) or if the composition of the different energy sources within the national energy mix changes. For instance, analysing a global sample of countries between 1960 and 2009, York (2012) estimates that reducing fossil fuel consumption by one unit requires between 4 and 13 additional units of renewable energy. Similar results are found by Chien and Hu (2008), who find that the expansion of renewable energy production does not necessarily imply the substitution of imported energy with domestically generated renewable sources but can increase overall energy imports. ...
The European Union's energy security is increasingly challenged by its heavy dependence on imported oil, which exposes the region to geopolitical risks and market vulnerabilities. This study explores the role of trade dynamics in exacerbating this dependency, leading to what we term trade lock-in. Additionally, we assess the effectiveness of environmental policies in reducing oil import dependence, investigating whether these policies foster a shift toward greener investments (divestment effect) or inadvertently drive increased oil extraction (green paradox effect). We use network analysis to represent the international oil trade network and use this information in an econometric framework covering the period from 1999 to 2019, accounting for the presence of cross-sectional dependence. We identify two main factors that lock energy systems into an oil-based path: technological (represented by the level of energy intensity) and trade (represented by the existence of privileged trade relations with major oil-exporting countries) lock-ins. Furthermore, we find evidence of the divestment effect for some specific environmental policy instruments, but the effect is not uniform across instruments characterised as either demand-pull or technology-push. Finally, we find that an efficient eco-innovation system can effectively reduce oil import dependence only in countries with a comparative advantage in exporting clean technologies.
... Another factor that constrains the realization of green growth, is that in a growing economy, where more materials and energy are being used each year, renewable energy sources are largely being added to fossil fuel use rather than replacing them. This has been identified by York (2012), Zehner (2012), Thombs (2017), York and Bell (2019), among others, and can be seen in global energy use trends. For example, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA 2023), in 2022 approximately 82% of global energy consumption was from fossil fuels. ...
An increasing number of leading scientists have stated that societies must transition away from a growing economic system to address climate change. Other scholars have called for general “system change” or specifically transitioning to a postcapitalist economy. Yet is a new economic system necessary to address the climate crisis? Answering this question requires examining the relevant research and empirical evidence about the relationships between economic growth, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions as well as a deeper understanding of what defines the current economic system and how changing that system might allow for more rapid and effective mitigation measures. This overview examines key elements of this discussion including: if a capitalist system is growth‐dependent, the empirical linkages between economic growth and climate change, what alternative economic systems have been proposed, and what a transition to a postcapitalist economic system aimed to address climate change might entail.
... Beyond economic constraints, the environmental efficiency of renewable energy has also been debated [10]. While it reduces carbon emissions, its production and deployment involve resource-intensive processes, including mining for rare metals and land-use changes that may offset some environmental gains [11]. Additionally, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power suffer from intermi ency issues, requiring either expensive energy storage solutions or backup fossil fuel generation to stabilize supply, further complicating the transition [12]. ...
Improving total factor renewable energy efficiency (TFREE) is crucial for developed countries to achieve a sustainable energy transformation. International trade is an important source of technological progress and may significantly promote TFREE. However, previous studies have largely overlooked the impact of trade on TFREE. To this end, this study attempts to examine the impact of trade on TFREE of 28 major, developed countries. The main findings are as follows: trade significantly improves TFREE; in terms of the magnitude of the effect, export is greater than import, and trade in goods is greater than trade in services. Trade in most industries promotes TFREE, but trade in the ores and metals industry inhibits TFREE. Trade can only promote TFREE in countries with a high human capital level, high renewable energy infrastructure level, and high institutional quality level. The lag effect of trade on TFREE shows an inverted U shape over time; the nonlinear impact of trade on TFREE shows an N shape as TFREE increases. Biased technological progress and technological improvement effects are the main paths for trade to enhance TFREE. This paper can provide a reference for developed countries to formulate appropriate trade policies to improve TFREE.
... Discover Soil (2025) 2:8 | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44378-025-00032-9 sources [4, 5] The main sources for energy generation are coal, nuclear materials, water, wind and sun [6,7], out of which coal makes up a sizable percentage [8][9][10][11][12]. In India major production of electricity is achieved through coal (thermal power plant) which is around 75% of the total power generation and accounts 55% of the country's energy needs [13]. ...
The simultaneous advancement of economic growth and ecological preservation continues to be a major worldwide problem, resulting in several environmental concerns such as pollution, deforestation, and climate change. Thermal power plants (TPPs) that burn coal release a lot of fly ash into the atmosphere, which travels great distances and contaminates the environment. Here in this study, we examined the effects of fly ash deposition from a TPP on the distribution of soil nematode communities at a distance gradient (500 m-4000 m) from the source in all directions (North, East, West, South). We aimed to investigate, at which distance and direction the fly ash constituent deposition had more corresponding effect on soil nematode community. Soil physiochemical properties, including organic carbon, phosphorus, potassium, and sulfate, exhibited significant increases with proximity to the TPP, while soil moisture decreased and heavy metals increased away from the source. Nematode composition and abundance displayed clear spatial patterns surrounding the thermal power plant (TPP). In particular, the abundance of predatory and omnivorous nematodes steadily declined with increasing distance from the TPP. As the distance from the TPP increased, so did the maturity indices and diversity of nematode community reflecting ecological stability of the nematode population. The results of the principal component analysis showed relationships between the composition of nematode genera and soil parameters. Phosphorus , sulfate, potassium, and electrical conductivity were all positively correlated with nematode abundance, whereas, negatively correlated with heavy metals. These results demonstrate the intricate relationships that exist between fly ash deposition, soil characteristics, and nematode communities, emphasizing the necessity of all-encompassing strategies to lessen the negative environmental effects of producing electricity from coal.
... Simultaneously, technology challenges and ecological sustainability influence the evolving concepts within the energy sector [1]. Once widely used without distinction, conventional fossil fuels have been decreased or even been abandoned in a number of energies producing applications in preference for increasingly common and dependable renewable energy sources [2]. The world's energy requirements and environmental problems can only be satisfied by using clean, renewable energy sources. ...
Investigated a range of solar absorber configurations made from different materials in an effort to maximize energy output and reduce energy losses in the context of renewable energy sources, especially solar energy. In this study, two-dimensional MXene was used as a resonator based on the Tungsten (W) substrate in thin wire and circular disk integration resonator MXene-based solar absorber (TWCDIRMSA). The design of the resonator combines a thin wire with a circular disk. The TWCDIRMSA has 90 % absorption with a 1750 nm wideband and 96 % absorption with a 930 nm wideband. The solar absorber structure analyzed AM 1.5 irradiation and 91.9 % achieved absorption. This solar absorber achieved absorption rates of 88.35 % at UV, 92.66 % at VIS, 89.56 % at NIR, 96.29 % at MIR, and 97.76 % at FIR spectra respectively. A variation in electric and magnetic intensity with colour-changing was also investigated and 94.37 % absorption by design in the 200-3000 nm wavelength region. The implementation of machine learning (ML) aims to reduce simulation time by one-fourth when compared to traditional methods while also reducing other simulation requirements, with the investigation demonstrating the ML model's highest achieved R 2 value of 0.94594 and a mean squared error of 1.294 × 10-4 under parameter variation. This proposed solar absorber polarization is insensitive to an incident angle of up to 70 degrees and a comparison with previous work is also presented in the table. With these remarkable abilities, this TWCDIRMSA has particular uses in solar inductions.
... I use renewable energy consumption as a share of total energy consumption and renewable energy in total electricity production, both measures taken from the WDI dataset. Recent studies suggest that adopting renewable energy in production reduces emissions from the manufacturing sector (Jahanger et al., 2023), although some others show that adopting renewables leads to increased overall fossil fuel consumption (York, 2012). Since my measures are standardized by total consumption, I estimate the share of renewables consumed rather than a total energy consumption, which is of course captured by my preferred dependent variable, total emissions per capita. ...
The idea that inequality and inequities drive climate change forms a strong discourse in environmental politics. Reducing inequality is promoted as a win-win solution for reducing greenhouse gases. Others view egalitarian processes as a potential threat since increasing the consumption possibilities of the bottom-rungs of society relative to the top would drive up higher overall emissions. Using the latest available data on greenhouse gas emissions and the adoption of green energy technology measured over three decades, this study finds that a variety of measurements of vertical and horizontal inequality and inequitable access to political resources correlate with lower emissions per capita and greater adoption of green energy technologies. Inequality works in the opposite way than often thought. Per capita income levels, contrarily, are robustly and consistently associated with higher emissions, results that support the view that it is overall wealth (consumption) that drives climate change, not its distribution. Reducing inequality and poverty poses a moral and practical conundrum because levelling up incomes within and between countries, given current levels of technology, will worsen the climate crisis. The basic results hold up to a barrage of robustness tests, such as alternative estimating methods, models, and data, and to formal tests of omitted variables bias. Understanding how emissions might be reduced while addressing questions of equity demands calls for much harder thinking, and potentially fewer slogans, such as "eco-social contracts" and "new green deals" that peddle win-win solutions to a 'wicked problem.' The fact of the matter is that humanity is still rushing headlong towards multiple collisions with nature and with each other within highly divided and unfair societies. And yet, we have the means to succeed; that is to combine the end of poverty with social inclusion and environmental safety. Jeffrey Sachs, cited in William Nordhaus (2022: 82)
... Under the term of electricity generation, there are many kinds of production processes [1]. Some processes use fossil fuels, some from natural resources (water and air), and some from sunlight (solar energy) [2]. From the several kinds of generated electricity power, solar energy system stands as a main role of green energy for its cost-effective and simple way to install from home to large working place [3,4]. ...
With the wide use of solar energy systems nowadays, we are profiting from natural resources and reducing electric bills. To create the perfect broadband absorber, combining the selected material in each layer and the appropriate resonator design plays an important role. With the efficiency of solar energy, our living standards can develop with the home facilities in daily life. We invented the current Al-Al2O3-InAs three-layer absorber intended to be used for several thermal purposes from small facilities to large amounts of electrical power generation processes. The recent absorber output can relate the absorption percentages 97.21%, 95.2%, and 92.6% in 400 nm, 1340 nm, and 2700 nm wavelength rates. The recent three-layer absorber work can be applied to some thermal processes of heating and cooling systems in medical devices, buildings, imaging, industrial places, and diagnostic systems.
... Whether and by how much renewable energy development reduces CO 2 emissions largely depends on the extent to which increases in renewable energy consumption displace fossil fuel consumption. York 3 finds that a one-unit increase in nations' renewable energy usage is associated with a reduction in fossil fuel usage by less than a quarter of a unit. This may be in part due to the fuel market rebound effect: renewable energy production increases overall energy supply and lowers energy price, which stimulates total energy consumption, including fossil fuel consumption 6,7 . ...
... The second aspect considers the need to go beyond just the economic costs of rewards and sanctions and address how the altering of perceptions and evaluations of behavioral options can drive more sustainable outcomes. So far, most IAMs encompass the costs of rewards and sanctions to change behavior (Christiansen 2012) and mitigating risks associated with a particular sustainable behavior impacting other sustainable behaviors (negative spillover or the rebound effect) (York 2012). ...
Socio-political factors in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and their scenario narratives often lack transparency for policymakers and interdisciplinary scholars. As these tools increasingly support sustainable development goals, their assumptions and methodologies require scrutiny, particularly from social scientists. We address critiques of climate isolationism, overemphasis on technological transitions, and insufficient inter- and transdisciplinarity, advocating for robust interdisciplinary integration and clearer methodological transparency. Our recommendations stem from expert interviews and over 200 stakeholders across 30 countries from 2019 to 2024, emphasizing the need for cohesive theory and comprehensive social science engagement to refine these critical tools. Our main case study uses a new scenario set, the Sustainable Development Pathways (SDPs), that made substantial efforts to address social sciences critiques. The SDPs consist of both narratives and IAM-quantified target-seeking scenarios that are supported by social science concepts and theories to ensure not only theoretical coherence, but also their credibility among policymakers. As such tools are increasingly used to facilitate policies and actions for sustainability transformation, questions are raised about how they can effectively represent the complexities behind the current polycrisis that is marked by the climate crisis, biodiversity loss, economic inequality and social injustice. The paper concludes by reflecting on the remaining challenges and open questions related to the role of exogenous sociopolitical factors, the potential for scenarios to transcend political ideologies, and the need for ongoing adaptation of SDPs to reflect the dynamic global context. It calls for continued engagement and exploration of these issues to ensure the scientific representation of sustainable and equitable futures.
... Similarly, he and colleagues found that aquaculture has not displaced markets for wild-caught fish and seafood but instead facilitated the increase of total seafood consumption (Longo et al., 2019). Beyond food, York (2012) also found that renewable energy has failed to suppress the production of fossil fuels, instead adding to total energy production (York and Bell 2019). 9 Absent data demonstrating what (if anything) APs are displacing, their sustainability claims require a leap of faith.The capital-laden infrastructure, industry-friendly policies, and corporate power that are baked into existing agri-food systems make it all the more speculative to insist that reduced demand for a specific animal product will spur decreased livestock production. ...
The emerging agri-food tech sector promises to solve myriad environmental problems. This article considers the sociotechnical imaginaries that animate these claims. We focus on plant-based meat and dairy substitutes, or 'alternative proteins' (APs). To examine how APs are constructed as environmental solutions, we analyzed marketing materials, sustainability reports, and interviews. Our study illustrates how environmental metrics (Life Cycle Assessments) and corporate marketing make environmental issues legible to agri-industrial logics by reducing them to a narrow, technical issue: inefficient livestock. To critique this problem closure, we develop the concept of inevitable sustainability-where the increased adoption of a technology is equated with the assured reduction of environmental harm. We caution that APs support a neoliberal model of environmental governance that propagates apolitical and deterritorialized solutions. To reflect on the limits of agri food tech environmental fixes, we discuss three myths surrounding inevitable sustainability. We outline this concept's applicability to similar instances of environmental solutionism in agri-food tech and beyond.
... As a result, it becomes difficult for people living within social boundaries to have a thriving natural environment as required for their life-supporting system (Raworth 2017). To address the problems of global warming and climate change, it is argued that a gradual energy transition toward renewables could be an ideal possibility (York 2012;Lau et al. 2023;Rather and Mahalik 2023). The gradual energy transition is about directing emerging economies to replace their heavy reliance on fossil fuels in economic activities by boosting renewable energy generation (Rather et al. 2024). ...
Since fossil fuel consumption drives environmental degradation, existing studies highlight the role of clean energy development in climate change mitigation. The emerging economies can mitigate climate change and also achieve sustainable development if they focus on innovation-led renewable energy development. In this context, this study is motivated to analyze the impact of domestic and overseas innovations (i.e., resident and non-resident) on renewable energy generation for 16 emerging market economies by employing balanced panel data from 1996 to 2019. This study incorporates financial development, regulatory quality, and real economic growth as crucial control variables in renewable energy generation function. The long-run results of the PMG-ARDL estimation technique show the positive (negative) impact of domestic (overseas) innovation on renewable energy generation, while regulatory quality, financial development, and economic growth promote it. Our results are robust across FGLS, Driscoll–Kraay standard error, and dynamic GMM estimation techniques. The policy implications are also discussed.
... In 2020, US CO 2 emissions fell by 10.3%, but in 2021 emissions rebounded by 6.2% (Osaka, 2022). Recent evidence suggests that each unit of energy from non-fossil fuel sources only substitutes for approximately one quarter of fossil fuel energy use (York, 2012). Policy resistance within the system means that actors often change their behavior relative to new policy (Sterman, 2000;Garrity, 2012). ...
... Renewable energy sources are emerging as viable and environmentally friendly alternatives to meet these global energy needs [31,34,36,44]. Solar energy, in particular, is a vital and sustainable solution [65], recently recognized as the cheapest source of electricity generation. It primarily relies on photovoltaic systems, which use semiconducting materials to convert sunlight into useful electrical energy [52]. ...
Recent advancements and developments in photovoltaic materials have made significant progress owing to the search for efficient and sustainable energy sources. Although lead halide perovskites have demonstrated impressive performance in solar cell applications, they face challenges such as environmental instability and lead toxicity. This study investigates several physical properties of two lead-free double halide perovskites, and , and evaluates their potential for solar cell applications using density functional theory (DFT) within the Wien2k code and spectroscopic limited maximum efficiency (SLME) approach. The negative formation energy and Born criteria confirm the structural stability of both perovskites in the ideal cubic structure. Optoelectronic analyses reveal that , with a direct band gap of 1.51 eV, exhibits better photovoltaic characteristics compared to , which has an indirect band gap of 0.60 eV. Additionally, the SLME analysis shows that achieves a higher SLME of approximately 31.4 %, compared to which has a SLME of 7.44%. Moreover, the calculated thermoelectric properties show that exhibits enhanced thermoelectric performance compared to . These findings highlight the potential of lead-free perovskites, particularly , for next-generation solar cell applications.
The global adoption of battery electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) as a substitute for internal combustion engine cars (ICEs) in various nations offers a substantial opportunity to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from land transportation. EVs are fitted with an energy conversion system that efficiently converts stored energy into propulsion, referred to as “tank-to-wheel (TTW) conversion”. Battery-electric vehicles have a significant advantage in that their exhaust system does not produce any pollutants. This hypothesis is equally relevant to public transport. Despite their higher upfront cost, electric buses contribute significantly to environmental sustainability during their operation. This study aimed to evaluate the environmental sustainability of electric buses during their operational phase by utilizing the life cycle assessment (LCA) technique. This paper used the MATLAB R2021b code to ascertain the mean load of the buses during their operation. The energy consumption of battery electric and hybrid electric buses was evaluated using the WLTP Class 2 standard, which refers to vehicles with a power-to-mass ratio between 22 and 34 W/kg, overing four speed phases (low, medium, high, extra high) with speeds up to 131.3 km/h. The code was used to calculate the energy consumption levels for the complete test cycle. The code adopts an idealized rectangular blind box model, disregarding the intricate design of contemporary buses to streamline the computational procedure. Simulating realistic test periods of 1800 s resulted in an average consumption of 1.451 kWh per km for electric buses and an average of 25.3 L per 100 km for hybrid buses. Finally, through an examination of the structure of the Hungarian power system utilization, it was demonstrated that electrification is a more appropriate method for achieving the emission reduction goals during the utilization phase.
Does renewable energy displace fossil fuels? Recent research finds mixed evidence, highlighting that effects are heterogeneous across contexts. I further explore this question by examining whether renewable energy production displaces fossil fuel production in the 33 fossil fuel–producing states in the U.S. from 1997 to 2020. Using three different approaches (two-way fixed effects regression, half-panel jackknife two-way fixed-effects regression, and the half-panel jackknife test for Granger causality), I find robust evidence that there is not an association between renewable energy production and fossil fuel production at the U.S. state-level. Additional analyses suggest that 96.7% of the variation in fossil fuel production is explained by state fixed effects, indicating that time-invariant state characteristics are much more important to consider.
The advancement of green energy batteries as alternative energy sources is crucial for addressing the issues posed by hazardous chemicals and their disposal, thereby mitigating environmental damage caused by direct or indirect impacts of pollution. Recently, novel Earth Battery Systems (EBS) have been investigated, utilizing various types of soils, compost, and electrodes, with water as a fixed electrolyte. In this study, EBS are characterized using multiple techniques, including Linear Sweep Voltammetry (LSV) and Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS). Our findings reveal that, compared to soil-based earth batteries - which exhibit high impedance values, the open-circuit voltage (Voc) and short-circuit current (Isc) are significantly enhanced in vermi-compost-based earth batteries fabricated using steel-201 as the anode and graphite as the cathode. Furthermore, the critical role of organic matter in promoting ion transport and enhancing the system’s overall efficiency is demonstrated through Cyclic Voltammetry (CV) and Ionic conductivity analysis. To ensure the sustainability of electrodes within the earth battery, corrosion studies are conducted using Tafel analysis. The results indicate that electrode corrosion can be effectively controlled by the strategic selection of corrosion inhibitors. Thus, this work lays the foundation for developing efficient, durable, and environmentally friendly EBS systems using soil and compost.
The burning of fossil fuels over the last 150 years has been the main driver of rising atmospheric CO 2 levels and global warming. The petroleum industry as an entity is often blamed for a significant share of these emissions, even those far downstream in the value chain. As a counterpoint to the prevailing narrative that the petroleum industry has caused nothing but global harm, this contribution argues for a more nuanced view by examining the industry's role in global warming within an historical and societal context, highlighting its positive contributions to society and the geosciences and, finally, showing how industry expertise in subsurface technologies and carbonate and evaporite geoscience are supporting the energy transition.
Technologies and workflows developed and proved by the petroleum industry over many decades are becoming indispensable in diverse aspects of emerging subsurface sustainable energy programmes, and data collected globally by the industry are widely utilized in the exploration for and exploitation of geothermal energy and in ventures to sequester CO 2 or store sustainably sourced energy. Carbonate rocks and evaporites are playing a more prominent role in this changing energy landscape than many might credit, ranging from a current predominance in low- and medium-enthalpy geothermal schemes, to salt-cavern energy storage programmes and CO 2 sequestration in depleted oil and gas reservoirs or saline aquifers, or through mineral carbonation programmes.
The petroleum industry's exploration for oil and gas has greatly advanced our understanding of Earth's geology. However, many aspects of the geosciences have become substantially defined by their utility to the industry, and with its inevitable decline, the funding for and direction of carbonate geoscience will inevitably shift, impacting both the nature of research and its practical applications.
Redox flow batteries (RFBs) are gaining significant attention due to the growing demand for sustainable energy storage solutions. In contrast to conventional aqueous vanadium RFBs, which have a restricted voltage range resulting from the use of water and vanadium, the utilization of redox-active organic molecules (ROMs) as active materials broadens the range of applicable liquid media to include non-aqueous electrolyte solutions. The extended voltage range of non-aqueous media, exceeding 2 V, facilitates the establishment of high-energy storage systems. Additionally, considering the higher cost of non-aqueous solvents compared to water, the objective in developing non-aqueous electrolyte solution-based organic RFBs (NRFBs) is to efficiently install these systems in a compact manner and explore unique applications distinct from those associated with aqueous RFBs, which are typically deployed for grid-scale energy storage systems. This review presents recent research progress in ROMs, electrolytes, and membranes in NRFBs. Furthermore, we address the prevailing challenges that require revolution, encompassing a narrow cell voltage range, insufficient solubility, chemical instability, and the crossover of ROMs. Through this exploration, the review contributes to the understanding of the current landscape and potential advancements in NRFB technology and encourages researchers and professionals in the energy field to explore this emerging technology as a potential solution to global environmental challenges.
The development of efficient catalytic materials in the energy field could promote the structural transformation from traditional fossil fuels to sustainable energy. In heterogeneous catalytic reactions, ligand modification is an effective way to regulate both electronic and steric structures of catalytic sites, thus paving a prospective avenue to design the interfacial structures of heterogeneous catalysts for energy conversion. Although great achievements have been obtained for the study and applications of heterogeneous ligand‐modified catalysts, the systematical refinements of ligand modification strategies are still lacking. Here, we reviewed the ligand modification strategy from both the mechanistic and applicable scenarios by focusing on heterogeneous electrocatalysis. We elucidated the ligand‐modified catalysts in detail from the perspectives of basic concepts, preparation, regulation of physicochemical properties of catalytic sites, and applications in different electrocatalysis. Notably, we bridged the electrocatalytic performance with the electronic/steric effects induced by ligand modification to gain intrinsic structure‐performance relations. We also discussed the challenges and future perspectives of ligand modification strategies in heterogeneous catalysis.
In this work, SAPO-11, SAPO-11-γ-Al2O3 and SAPO-11-ZSM-5-γ-Al2O3 molecular sieve supports were prepared by static hydrothermal synthesis, which SAPO-11-γ-Al2O3 and SAPO-11-ZSM-5-γ-Al2O3 supports were loaded with Co and Mo as active metal components. The hydroisomerization properties of n-hexadecane on SAPO-11, SAPO-11-γ-Al2O3 and SAPO-11-ZSM-5-γ-Al2O3 molecular sieves were investigated, as well as the effects of reaction temperature, reaction time, solid–liquid ratio and reaction pressure on the hydroisomerization properties. The results demonstrated that the SAPO-11 molecular sieves synthesized under the ratios of 1Al2O3:2P2O5:0.6TEOS:1.2DPA:55H2O, crystallization time of 48 h, and crystallization temperature of 180 °C had high crystallinity and uniform size distribution, and the pore structure was more obvious. After loading metals onto the SAPO-11-γ-Al2O3 molecular sieves, the charged metals partially block the pores or pore openings of the molecular sieves, leading to a reduction in specific surface area and pore volume. As a result, some acidic sites become occupied by the metals, weakening the acidity. The results of the hydroisomerization experiments showed that the SAPO-11 molecular sieves achieved maximum isoparaffin selectivity and isoparaffin yield, reaching values of 31.26% and 28.32%, respectively, at 340 °C over a reaction time of 60 min. The selectivity and yield reached maximum of 51.02% and 43.76% at liquid–solid ratio up to 25:1. The selectivity and yield reached maximum values of 55.82% and 51.2% at an initial reaction pressure of 5 MPA. For the SAPO-11-γ-Al2O3 supports, the selectivity and yield the maximum values of 79.50% and 71.49% at a metal Co: Mo loading ratio of 1:3 was achieved. For the SAPO-11-ZSM-5-γ-Al2O3 supports, the selectivity and yield the maximum values of 55.44% and 54.05% were achieved with ZSM-5 loading of 30 wt%. These catalysts have the potential for a wide range of applications.
The growing concern and limitations for existing lubricants have driven the need for biolubricants, extensively proposed as the most suitable and sustainable lubricating oils. Biolubricant refers to lubricants that quickly biodegrade and are non-toxic to humans and aquatic habitats. Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the production of biolubricants due to the rising demand for replacing petroleum-based lubricants with those derived from renewable sources like vegetable oils and lipase that are used in various applications. In this study biodiesel (FAME) produced from blending animal fats and waste cooking was used as a raw material with ethylene glycol for biolubricant production using a transesterification reaction in the presence of calcium oxide which considers the newest and novel part as there is no production of biolubricant from animal fats and waste cooking oil in previous researches. The reaction parameters of biolubricant production were optimized using response surface methodology (RSM) with the aid of Box Behnken Design (BBD) to study the effect of independent variables on the yield of biolubricant. These variables are temperature ranging from (100–150 °C), reaction time ranging from 1 to 4 h, and FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) to alcohol molar ratio ranging from (2:1) to (4:1). The highest biolubricant yield is 91.56% at a temperature of 141 °C, a FAME/alcohol molar ratio of 2:1, and 3.3 h. Various analyses were performed on the produced biolubricant at the optimum conditions. The results include a pour point of -9 °C, a flash point of 192 °C, a kinematic viscosity at 40 °C of 10.35 cSt, a viscosity index of 183.6, an ash content of 0.76 wt.%, and a carbon residue of 1.5 wt.%, comparing favorably with the ISO VG 10 standard. The production process of biolubricant was simulated with Aspen Plus version 11 using a Non-Random Two-Liquid (NRTL) fluid package. The simulation results indicated that the production process can be applied on an industrial scale. Economic analysis was performed on the biolubricants production plant. The total capital investment was $12.7 M with a payback period of 1.48 years and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 67.5% indicating the suitability and profitability of the biolubricant production.
In recent years, climate change has escalated significantly, with forecasts indicating that this trend will further accelerate in the future. Renewable energy systems play a crucial role in global efforts to mitigate climate change due to their minimal greenhouse gas emissions. These systems also have the potential to facilitate the energy sector’s adaptation to climate change, given their decentralized nature, which enhances the resilience of energy infrastructure to extreme climate events. Nevertheless, existing literature predominantly focuses on their role in global mitigation efforts, often overlooking their significant adaptation capacity, particularly as reflected in national policies. This study seeks to bridge this gap through a qualitative examination of how renewable energy is incorporated into climate change adaptation policies in three countries: Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It highlights a growing awareness of the role of renewable energy within these countries’ adaptation policies. However, while there is consensus on the importance of policy factors such as local focus, research initiatives, and risk assessment in utilizing renewable energy for adaptation, this study reveals that the actual deployment of renewable energy remains largely centered on mitigation efforts, partly neglecting crucial adaptation needs in the energy sector, such as geographical and technological diversification.
Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is one of the most widely applied
methods for sustainability assessment. A main application of LCA is to compare alternative products to identify and promote those that are more environmentally friendly. Such comparative LCA studies often rest on, explicitly or implicitly, an idealized assumption, namely, 1:1 displacement between functionally equivalent products. However, product displacement in the real world is much more complicated, affected by various factors such as the rebound effect and policy
schemes. Here, we quantitatively review studies that have considered these aspects to evaluate the magnitude and distribution of realistic displacement estimates across several major product categories (biofuels, electricity, electric vehicles, and recycled
products). Results show that displacement ratios concentrate around 40−60%, suggesting considerable overestimation of the benefits of alternative products if the 1:1 displacement assumption was used. Overall, there have been a small number of modeling studies on realistic product displacement and their scopes were limited. Additional research is needed to cover more product categories and geographies and improve the modeling of market and policy complexities. As such research accumulates, their displacement estimates can form a database that can be drawn upon by comparative LCA studies to more accurately determine the environmental impacts of alternative products.
With the escalating global demand for electric vehicles and sustainable energy solutions, increasing focus is placed on developing electrochemical systems that offer fast charging and high‐power output, primarily governed by mass transport. Accordingly, porous carbons have emerged as highly promising electrochemically active or supporting materials due to expansive surface areas, tunable pore structures, and superior electrical conductivity, accelerating surface reaction. Yet, while substantial research has been devoted to crafting various porous carbons to increase specific surface areas, the optimal utilization of the surfaces remains underexplored. This review emphasizes the critical role of the fluid dynamics within multiscale porous carbonaceous electrodes, leading to substantially enhanced pore utilization in electrochemical systems. It elaborates on strategies of using sacrificial templates for incorporating meso/macropores into microporous carbon matrix, while exploiting the unique properties of polyphenol moieties such as sustainable carbons derived from biomass, inherent adhesive/cohesive interactions with template materials, and facile complexation capabilities with diverse materials, thereby enabling adaptive structural modulations. Furthermore, it explores how multiscale pore configurations influence pore‐utilization efficiency, demonstrating advantages of incorporating multiscale pores. Finally, synergistic impact on the high‐power electrochemical systems is examined, attributed to improved fluid‐dynamic behavior within the carbonaceous frameworks, providing insights for advancing next‐generation high‐power electrochemical applications.
MXene, regarded as cutting‐edge two‐dimensional (2D) materials, have been widely explored in various applications due to their remarkable flexibility, high specific surface area, good mechanical strength, and interesting electrical conductivity. Recently, 2D MXene has served as a ideal platform for the design and development of electrocatalysts with high activity, selectivity, and stability. This review article provides a detailed description of the structural engineering of MXene‐based electrocatalysts and summarizes the uses of 2D MXene in hydrogen evolution reactions, nitrogen reduction reactions, oxygen evolution reactions, oxygen reduction reactions, and methanol/ethanol oxidation. Then, key issues and prospects for 2D MXene as a next‐generation platform in fundamental research and real‐world electrocatalysis applications are discussed. Emphasis will be given to material design and enhancement techniques. Finally, future research directions are suggested to improve the efficiency of MXene‐based electrocatalysts.
Several states and countries have adopted targets for deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but there has been
little physically realistic modeling of the energy and economic transformations required. We analyzed the infrastructure and
technology path required to meet California’s goal of an 80% reduction below 1990 levels, using detailed modeling of infrastructure
stocks, resource constraints, and electricity system operability. We found that technically feasible levels of energy efficiency
and decarbonized energy supply alone are not sufficient; widespread electrification of transportation and other sectors is
required. Decarbonized electricity would become the dominant form of energy supply, posing challenges and opportunities for
economic growth and climate policy. This transformation demands technologies that are not yet commercialized, as well as coordination
of investment, technology development, and infrastructure deployment.
From genius grids to sassy storage, three-dozen experts figure out the next-generation power puzzle.
Here I draw attention to two socio-ecological paradox- es. The Jevons Paradox is based on the observation that an improvement in the efficiency with which a natural resource is used is often associated with an increase in the consump- tion of that resource. Similarly, the Paperless Office Paradox is based on the observation that the development of substi- tutes for a natural resource is not always associated with a decline in consumption of that resource, and in fact may oc- casionally lead to an increase in the consumption of that re- source. These two paradoxes call into question whether tech- nological advances alone will necessarily lead to conserva- tion of natural resources.
It is often argued that saving energy helps the environment and saves money. An analysis of three energy-saving measures shows that decisions on how the saved money is spent affect the size of the environmental benefit.
To address questions about the environmental consequences of globalization and modernization, I estimate the effects of a variety of structural factors on energy production in 14 nations of South and East Asia, which contain more than half the world’s population, using panel data covering the period 1971–2002. My results suggest that energy production is significantly influenced by a variety of structural factors, including economic development, urbanization, export intensity, and debt service. Consistent with the arguments of theorists of the political economy of the world-system, I find compelling evidence that modernization and integration into the global economy contribute to natural resource exploitation.
Households are expected to play a pivotal role in reducing the UK's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the UK Government is encouraging specific household actions to help meet its targets. However, due to the rebound effect, only a portion of the GHG emission reductions estimated by simple engineering calculations are generally achieved in practice. For example, replacing short car journeys by walking or cycling reduces consumption of motor fuels. But this frees up money that may be spent on, for example, purchasing extra clothes or flying on vacation. Alternatively, the money may be put into savings. Since all of these options lead to GHG emissions, total GHG savings may be less than anticipated. Indeed, in some instances, emissions may increase--a phenomenon known as 'backfire'. We estimate that the rebound effect for a combination of three abatement actions by UK households is approximately 34%. Targeting re-spending on goods and services with a low GHG intensity reduces this to a minimum of around 12%, while re-spending on goods and services with a high GHG intensity leads to backfire. Our study highlights the importance of shifting consumption to lower GHG intensive categories and investing in low carbon investments.
One million people depend on the seasonal filling and emptying of Cambodia's Tonlé Sap Lake. But newly built dams on the upper
Mekong and its tributaries are expected to modulate the river's flow. A large area of permanent inundation will swallow thousands
of hectares of floodplain, disrupting the ecosystem and possibly devastating the fishery. Laotian leaders are preparing to
build the first dam on the lower Mekong mainstream: the $3.8 billion Xayaburi Hydroelectric Power Project, slated for completion
as early as 2019. But the plan is raising tensions. The Mekong River Commission (MRC), which includes Laos, Cambodia, Thailand,
and Vietnam, requires prior consultation on any major project that might affect sustainable development on the Lower Mekong
Basin. Xayaburi dam is the first major proposal to trigger such a review. And the other three MRC members are not satisfied
with the information they've received so far from Laos.