Competition on fast track: an analysis of the first competitive market for HSR services

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Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2013) 000–000
EWGT2013 – 16th Meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation
Competition on the fast track: a short-term analysis of the first
competitive market for HSR services
Ennio Cascettaa, Pierluigi Coppolab,
*
a Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engeneering - University of Naples “Federico II”, Via Claudio 21- 80125 Napoli (Italy)
bDept. of of Enterprise Engineering University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Via del Politecnico 1, Roma 00133, Italy
Abstract
This paper gives an overview of the dual effects of the opening, in Italy, of the new HSR line with a single operator (between
2005-2012) and of a new operator entering the HSR market (2012-onward). Effects on supply, demand and prices are
presented allowing a first evaluation of the competition in a typically monopolistic market. The analyses are based on source
data (laws and regulations, business plans, timetables, prices) as well as ad hoc extensive surveys, such as on-board counts on
the high speed and intercity trains, retrospect surveys, and RP/SP interviews. In addition, an integrated modeling system has
been developed to assess the effects of competing timetables/services/prices in terms of different HSR operators, competing
modes (air/ auto/railways), services (1st class/2nd class, etc.) and newly generated trips.
© 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of Scientific Committee.
Keywords: long-distance travel demand; modal competition; induced demand; travel time demand elasticity
1. Introduction
High Speed Rail (HSR) network have largely expanded in the last decades. In Europe, following the LGV
(Ligne à Grande Vitesse), launched in the early 80’s between Paris and Lyon (420 Km), HSR services are
nowadays diffused in Spain (AVE), Germany (ICE), Benelux (Thalys) and Italy (TAV) for a total of about 6.500
kilometers. New projects are under discussion or are in progress in Sweden, UK, Portugal, Russia and Turkey.
On the other hand, in the Far-East, the pioneer Tokaido-Shinkansen HSR line (launched in 1964 for the Tokyo
Olympic Games, between Tokyo and Osaka) has nowadays been joined by 5 new HSR lines for a total network
extension of about 2300 Km for 353 million of annual passengers. As of 2011, China is the country with the
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +39-06-72597059; fax: +39-06-72597053
E-mail address: coppola@ing.uniroma2.it

2 Ennio Cascetta, Pierluigi Coppola / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2013) 000–000
more extended routes in service including more than 3.500 km of rail lines at 300 km/h operating speed, and the
network is expected to largely expand in the next years.
Different typologies of HSR operational models can be distinguished (see also Campos and de Rus, 2009),
depending on the use, exclusive or mixed, of the HSR infrastructure. The Japanese case, for instance, is an
example of “exclusive” HSR infrastructure with single operator: HSR is entirely separated from the rest of the
railways network and only High Speed (HS) trains run on such infrastructure. On the other hand, the French
operation model is characterized by HS trains using both HSR and non-HSR (duly potentiated) infrastructures.
From the operations perspective, there are cases with a single operator in charge of infrastructure and operations,
as in Japan, where the 6 Shinkansen lines (infrastructure and service) are managed by different private operators,
or as in Spain and France where there is a single national operator in charge of HSR infrastructure and services.
On the other hand there are cases in which there is a distinct owner of infrastructure and different service
operators, as it is in Germany, in Italy, and in Benelux. In the latter case the HS train (Thalys) run on the HS
infrastructures of different National Railways (Netherland, Belgium, France).
In Italy, owing to the European open access regulatory framework, starting from April 2012 the new HSR
private operator “Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori” (NTV) entered the HSR market, competing with the incumbent
public-owned “Trenitalia”. This is the first case in the World of pure competition among non-subsidized HSR
operators (NTV and Trenitalia) on the same line (i.e. a single infrastructure managed by the State-owned
company “RFI”).
This paper presents an overview of the short-term dual effects of opening new HSR lines with a single
operator (between 2005-2012), and of multiple operators competing in the HSR market (2012-onward). Effects
on supply, demand and prices are presented allowing a first evaluation of competition in a typically monopolistic
market. The paper is organized as follows. After a brief review of the regulatory framework of Rail Transport in
Italy (section 2), the Italian HSR infrastructure and service are presented (section 3). In section 4, evidences of
the effects of competition in the HSR market on prices and service quality are presented. Section 5 describes the
overall methodological framework developed to forecast the effects on travel demand and modal competition.
Impacts on the inter-province travel demand in Italy between 2009 and 2012 are presented in section 5, in terms
of travel demand growth, modal shares and travelers’ characteristics, before and after HSR. Finally, conclusions
and current research areas are discussed in section 6.
2. The regulatory framework of Rail Transport in Italy
Since the early nineties, Europe's rail transport sector has been characterized by a process of liberalization and
privatization aimed at rationalizing the market and introducing competition into a sector traditionally
characterized by monopolistic positions and a strong presence of public incumbents.
The European Commission (EC) has initiated a regulatory reorganization aimed at overcoming those who had
been identified as a major obstacle to the development of the sector, in particular the absence of a competitive
market. A number of EC Directives followed in the first (EU Directive 91/440), second (Directive 2004/51/EC)
and third railway packages (Directive 2007/58/EC). In January 2013 the fourth railway package has been
proposed by the European Commission (COM-2013 28 final, 2013/0028) but not yet been approved by the
European Parliament, giving open access for all international passenger services across the railways of the
European Union.
Each state has embarked on its path towards the liberalization of the Rail market, achieving different degrees
of opening. Each country has chosen the model of competition that it deemed appropriate to achieve a double
objective. On the one hand, raise the railways in terms of traffic volumes, efficiency and quality of services
through competition where possible, and, on the other hand, continue to meet the demand for services with high
social content, but not attractive to the free market.

Ennio Cascetta and Pierluigi Coppola / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2013) 000–000 3
In Italy, the European directives and the legislation that ensued, led to the separation of the various branches
of activity within the previous competence of the incumbent Ferrovie dello Stato (FS), following a horizontal (or
“decoupling”) scheme (Sanchez et al., 2008). Management of passenger service was given in charge to Trenitalia
while the management of the railway lines (formerly FS) were assigned to the infrastructure manager, i.e. Rete
Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI). RFI has among its main tasks the maintenance of infrastructure, the traffic
management, the allocation of rail capacity (in terms of train paths or time slot), the collection of rights of
movement and the control activities of operating rail services companies with regard to circulation safety.
Trenitalia and RFI are 100% owned by FS.
Trenitalia and other (national or regional rail service) companies operating on the rail sections are required to
pay charges for the use of lines and services to the infrastructure manager (i.e. RFI). A body of the Ministry of
Infrastructure and Transport, the Office for the Regulation of Rail Services, is in charge of overseeing
competition rail transport and to resolve any disputes.
The Italian case study can be consider a best practice at international level, as it is the first Country in which,
following the liberalization of the passenger market, a entirely private company, Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori
(www.ntvspa.it), provides HSR services in competition with the incumbent Trenitalia. Trenitalia and NTV
services are not regulated under the tariff profile and are not subsidized. In this way, it can be exploited the
maximum benefit for travelers, arising from the competition in terms of:
• schedules and frequency,
• stations of origin and destination services, and intermediate stops;
• differentiation of price levels;
• level of comfort and other on-board services ;
• ancillary services.
3. The Italian HSR network: infrastructures and services
In Italy, the first HSR service was launched in 1992 between Firenze and Roma with the so called
“direttissima”, allowing trains to run at 230 Km/h and covering the 257 Km between Roma and Firenze in about
2 hours. The project of the “direttissima”, however, dated back to 1970. As a matter of fact, the new-generation
HSR (i.e. with trains running at 300 Km/h maximum speed) was launched in December 2005 between Roma and
Napoli (205 Km) and Milano and Bologna (182 Km). The project had a second step onward in December 2009
when the Milano-Torino (125 Km) and the Bologna-Firenze (79 Km) lines were completed, as well as the urban
penetration in the cities of Roma and Napoli. As a matter of fact, from 2010 the backbone of the Italian HSR
network from Torino to Napoli is fully operative. Excluding the urban penetration of Milano, Roma Firenze and
Bologna, the cost of the whole network was about 40,5 billion Euro for a total length of 830 Km, which yields a
unitary cost per Kilometer of 48,9 Million-Euro/Km. If we exclude from such calculation the link from Roma to
Firenze, whose costs are related to outdated technology of the eighties, the total investment cost is about 35,8
billion Euro and the unitary cost per kilometer is 60,7 million-euro/Km.
Today the service includes several city pairs at distances in between 100-250 Km, e.g. Roma-Napoli (205 Km
in 1 hour and 10 minutes), Milano-Torino (125 Km in 54 minutes) and Roma-Milano (515 Kilometers in 3,5 h
and, with a direct service, i.e. not calling at Bologna and Firenze, in 2 hours and 45 minutes. The HSR service
frequency on the HSR network ranges from 1 train/h to 4-5 train/h in the peak period on sections between Roma,
Firenze and Bologna (Figure 1).
The Italian HSR project is still under development. The station-to-station travel times, which have already
been reduced, depending on OD pair, of about 20-40% (Cascetta et al., 2013), are expected to be further reduced
with the completion of the new underground bypass-stations in Bologna and Firenze that will allow to speeding
up the service in such dense urban areas. Moreover, Trenitalia has announced the launch of new-generation HS
trains running at 360 Km/h as of 2015, which would reduce the travel time from Roma to Milano of 20-30

4 Ennio Cascetta, Pierluigi Coppola / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2013) 000–000
minutes further. Several extensions of the current network are in progress, such as the Milano-Venice and the
Torino –Lyon lines, or are in the design stage (e.g. the Napoli-Bari and the Milano-Genova sections).
Between 2009 and 2012, the supply of HSR services in Italy has seen a sharp increase both in terms of
frequency (i.e. number of trains per day) and accessibility (number of cities and stations served). On the one
hand, thanks to the completion the infrastructure, HSR services have been increased between Napoli, Roma and
Milano with extensions to/from Torino and Salerno (Figure 1). On the other hand, the entry of the new operator
NTV into HSR market, has led to increase of HSR services to Venice and Padua, new services to Rimini and
Ancona (along the Adriatic corridor), and in new stations as in Roma (Tiburtina and Ostiense) and Milano
(Rogoredo, and Porta Garibaldi).
Figure 1: Italian HSR infrastructure and services
Along the main line Milano-Roma-Napoli, the number of Trenitalia trains has grown from 71 daily departures
in 2009, to 89 in 2012 (Table 1). In terms of Trains-km, thanks to the service extensions to Salerno and Torino,
the increase is even more significant: from 40,800 Trains-Km/day in 2009 to 61,850 Trains-Km/day in 2012,
about 50% in four years. In 2012 with the entrance of the NTV operator the number of daily trains has further
increased with 44 daily trains and 31.000 Trains-Km bringing the total to 170 runs/day (+79% with respect to
2009) and 113.000 Trains-Km/day (+105% w.r.t. 2009).
Table 1: HSR daily runs and trains-Km growth between 2009 and 2012.
n.runs/day
Trains-Km/day
(000)
n.runs/day
Trains-Km/day
(000)
n.runs/day
Trains-Km/day
(000)
n.runs/day
Trains-Km/day
(000)
n.runs/day
Trains-Km/day
(000)
TO-MI-RM-NA-(SA) 71 41 86 57 91 61 89 62 38 28
(NA)-RM-VE 24 14 26 14 29 15 37 19 6 3
Total 95 55 112 71 120 76 126 81 44 31
TRENITALIA
NTV
Line
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012

Ennio Cascetta and Pierluigi Coppola / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2013) 000–000 5
4. Evidences on prices and service quality
The competition in the HSR market had a direct impact on the fare structure and on the on-board services
offered; from an original set up with two classes (1st and 2ndclass), the layout of the Trenitalia trains have been
revamped in 2011 to offer up to four different classes (i.e. Executive, Business, Premium and Standard); NTV
trains have three levels of accommodation (i.e. Club, Prima, Smart). Moreover, a new pricing structure based on
three different fares typology (i.e. Base, Economy and Super-Economy/Low-cost) for each class, have been
introduced both by Trenitalia and NTV (Table 2). The different fares relates to different levels of flexibility in the
use of the trains, and different price points within each tariff, managed according to yield management schemes.
On the whole the number of travel options (physical arrangements/tariff combinations) has gone from 2 to 12 for
Trenitalia and 9 for NTV, providing travelers with a wider choice set.
Table 2: evolution of tariff structure and ambient of travel induced by HSR competition.
The new pricing structure and availability of promotional offers has led to a substantial reduction in the
average price per passenger by about 30% (Figure 2), but has also expanded greatly the "gap" of tariffs, allowing
low-income demand segments to approach for the first time High Speed Rail services, with an effect similar to
the introduction of low-cost flights in the Air market.
Figure 2: evolution of average single ticket price by HSR from 2009 to 2012.
The competition also triggered an overall reorganization of the service, including a range of ancillary services
for travelers, both on board (entertainment, WI-FI, …) and on local access-egress transport (parking facilities at
the station, parking reservation, integrated local public transport tickets, etc.), as well as in the form of agreement
with local museum, hotels and other tourism attractions which were not available before 2011 (Table 3).
2009-2010 2011 2012
BASE BASE BASE
HSR tariffs mini Economy
Super-Economy /Low-Cost
1st class Executive /Club
classes 2nd class Business /Prima
Premium
Standard
/Smart

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Table 3: new services induced by competition in HSR market.
5. The methodology for the assessment of HSR impacts on travel demand and modal competition
The methodology for the assessment of HSR impacts on travel demands and modal competition is based on
integrated demand and supply models, estimated and validated through RP-SP surveys and traffic counts (Figure
3). The starting point of the overall procedure is the estimation of the current OD matrices by railways services
(Intercity and HSR), by auto and air transport. These are updated every year based on current traffic counts and
source data using a GLS estimator (Cascetta, 2009). A “National Demand Growth” model (Cascetta and
Coppola, 2011) projects then current-year total OD volumes to future years of analysis, according to assumed
macroeconomics trends (e.g. GDP growth, oil price).
The second step consists of setting up (current and future) transport supply scenario on the multi-modal
national transport network, and to compute the related Origin-to-Destination (OD) Level of Service (L.o.S.)
attributes by road, air, and rail. To this aim, transport infrastructure and service supply models has been
developed, i.e. a diachronic network of about 126.500 nodes and 330.000 links.
Figure 3: the HSR demand forecasting methodology
new services
entertraiment (cinema, news ,…)
silence area
limousine service available at the station
local transport reservation of parking place at the station
Integrated local public transport and HSR ticket
tourism deals and discounts with hotels, museums, and other local providers
on board

Ennio Cascetta and Pierluigi Coppola / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2013) 000–000 7
At the third step, given the total OD demand flows for future scenarios, the schedule-based mode choice
model (Cascetta and Coppola, 2012) forecast the market share of different inter-province transport modes based
on estimated L.o.S. attributes, including alternative modes, alternative rail services (Intercity and HSR), different
travel classes, and HSR operators (i.e. Trenitalia and NTV). The schedule-based mode-service choice model
allow to simulating the competition between transport modes and HSR operators based not only on travel times
and costs, but also on the actual departure time of trains and flights (i.e. timetables). The model is set as a Nested-
Logit models (see Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985) with a nesting structure to capture higher degrees of
substitutions among specific subsets of modal alternatives, particularly the HSR alternatives provided on the
same route by different operators. Such models have been estimated (Cascetta and Coppola, 2012) based on two
RP-SP surveys were carried on during May 2009 and October 2010. To authors’ knowledge this is the first
application of integrated mode-service-run choice model to intercity travel demand at the national scale. Within
the proposed modeling forecasting framework the schedule-based mode choice model is applied at a first level to
the current supply scenario in order to reproduce the current mode-service share by the fine tuning of the
mode/service Alternative Specific Constants (ASC) (i.e. model calibration); at a second step the model, fed by
future LoS attributes computed by the supply model, forecast the OD modal share in the future scenario.
Finally, the induced demand model (see Cascetta and Coppola, 2013), estimates the additional HSR demand
generated by changes in trip-frequency due to the improvement of HSR generalized travel cost given by the
weighted sum of travel times, prices and frequencies. The whole OD flows on the HSR services are then assigned
to individual trains using a stochastic network loading model with no capacity constraints, allowing to forecasting
occupancies on each train and each station-to-station link of the HSR network.
6. Evidences on HSR demand and modal competition
Since 2009 a vast campaign of surveys has been carried on monitoring the evolution of the national demand of
passenger transport, compared to the modification of HSR services, in terms of total trips, modal split between
long distance transport modes, individual trip frequency, travelers’ daily routine and life-styles. The available
data were gathered by means of on-board counts and RP/SP surveys carried on between May 2009 and May
2013. The counts were used to update the existing outdated OD matrices of Eurostar and Intercity trips, and to
estimate the total inter-province OD flows on HSR. In addition O-D matrices were acquired on highways and
between airports to evaluate the effects of HSR on competing modes.
The results in terms of HSR passengers are impressive, even more when contextualized in the overall long-
distance passenger demand market shrinking due to the current economic crisis. The approximately 55,500
travelers/day on HSR of 2009 have grown steadily to about 85,000 travelers/day in December 2012 with an
increase of 52%. (Figure 4). The rise in passengers has been matched by an even more substantial increase of
79% in terms of passenger-km. This phenomenon is due to the increase in average travelled distance by HSR. It
is interesting to note that Trenitalia has further increased its patronage in 2012, despite the entry into operation of
the competitor NTV.
Moreover, it can be observed that the outstanding increase of the HSR trips is mainly concentrated in the first
year of operations (i.e. year 2010), but this is still significant also in 2011 due to a “time -lagged” effect which is
due to be taken into consideration when doing economic analysis. It, finally, had a further increase on after the
incoming of the new HSR operator in year 2012.

8 Ennio Cascetta, Pierluigi Coppola / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2013) 000–000
Figure 4: HSR demand trends in Italy (passenger and passenger-Km’s).
Using the source data available on domestic Air transport (ENAC 2009,2010) and on highways traffic
(AISCAT 2009, 2010), an analysis of domestic travel demand has been carried on. Comparing the trends in long-
distance demand by transport mode (Auto, Air, Rail), the year 2009, in which HSR along the Napoli-Milano
section comes into operation, marks up a turning point for rail transport. Despite the economic crisis continues to
burden on the Country's economy, an extraordinary +37% growth in the number of passengers on HSR offsets
the reductions on other rail services to medium and long distance, i.e. Intercity and Eurostar, leading to an
increase between 2009 and 2012 of +21% by Rail service in the “HSR core area” (i.e. the catchment area of HSR
stations). Domestic travel demand by Air, increased by 1% in the same period, while in the core area decreased
by 21%. Long distance motorway traffic decreased by 9% on a national basis and by 18% in the HSR core area.
A differential reduction of air and auto travel can be estimated respectively equal to 22% and 9% (Figure 5).
The above analysis shows that the demand by Auto and by Air modes between the OD pairs not served by the
new HSR services have varied at a significantly different rate with respect to demand between OD pairs in the
HSR core area. In other words, the introduction of the new HSR services had a direct impact on the modal split of
the long-distance travel demand.
Figure 5: demand trends by modes in Italy and in the HSR core area (index numbers).
Between 2009 and 2012, the modal share of HSR passengers demand in the core area increased from 27% to
39% (in terms of passengers-km from 39% to 55%), compared to a reduction of highway modal share from 56%
to 48% (in terms of passengers-km respectively from 28% to 21%) and Air from 10% to 8.5% (in terms

Ennio Cascetta and Pierluigi Coppola / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2013) 000–000 9
passengers-km respectively from 26% to 21%) (Figure 6a). Contrary to other studies which describe “High Speed
Trains as a Substitute to Aircrafts” (as quoted in Givoni, 2006), the reduction of modal shares here reported, i.e.
higher by car than by air, can be explained by the configuration of the Italian HSR network, which, due to the
geography of the Country, mainly connects population and activities at distances in between 100-250 km’s where
Air demand is negligible, and, the induced demand effects are higher. This is confirmed by the fact that if we
consider city-to-city trips at distance above 500 Km, such as Roma-Milano OD pair, HSR modal share has
increased from 45% in 2009 to 68% in 2012, with a sharp reduction in the modal share of air from 45% to 26%
and a negligible decrease of highway (Figure 6b).
Figure 6: modal shares in terms of passengers in the HSR core area and on the Roma-Milano OD pair.
The +37% increase of HSR demand between 2009 and 2012 in the core area, corresponds to about 7 million
more passengers for HSR on a yearly basis: 5 million more passengers for Trenitalia, and about 2 million
passengers carried by NTV in 2012.
The demand increase in principle can be split into three components: diverted demand, which derives from the
travelers’ mode choice diversion toward HSR either from other modes (e.g. auto, air) or other rail services (e.g.
intercity); economy-based demand variation, which is linked to the trends of the National and International
economic trends; and induced demand, consisting of travelers that before HSR did not travel at all or that have
increased their trip frequency as a consequence of HSR. Induced demand depends either, in the mid-short term
period, “directly” on the generalized travel cost, i.e. changes in travel choices such ad trip frequency, destination
or activity pattern, e.g. the trip becomes more frequent because traveling with HSR is faster, cheaper and/or more
comfortable, or, in the long period, “indirectly” due to modifications of the travelers’ mobility or lifestyle
choices, e.g. travelers start commuting (i.e. making more frequent trips) due to the relocation of the residence or
of the workplace, and partly due to changes in land use, e.g. new residents, jobs and activities interconnected
thanks to HSR. Evidences from the Customer Satisfaction carried on by NTV in 2012, show that about 23% of
NTV passengers changed their zone of residence in the previous two years and 7% imputed this change to the
introduction of the new HSR services.
Finally, it is worth mention the demand of tourists on HSR trains that has increased significantly thanks to the
“network of art cities” (Roma, Florence, Venice) created by the new HSR links. Evidences from a study on the
travel demand of international tourist in Italy (Pragma, 2013) show that against an increase of 6% of the total
number of tourist in Italy in the last two years (2010-2012), the number of tourists visiting the cities connected by
HSR services, increased by 23%.

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7. Conclusions
The empirical evidences from the Italian HSR market, presented in this paper, show an outstanding increase of
HSR passenger between 2009 and 2012. This is partly due to the opening of the new HSR lines and partly due to
the competition effects of a new operator (i.e. NTV) entering the HSR market in 2012 competing with the
incumbent Trenitalia.
Due to the competition HSR services expanded over the rail network and in new stations of Roma and Milano
(i.e. the main metropolitan area of the Country). Moreover an increase of on-board services offered has been
observed, as well as an overall reduction of the HSR fares (-31%) thanks to the new pricing structure and
availability of promotional (low-cost) offers. As a result, HSR modal share in the HSR core area increased from
27% to 39%, compared to a reduction of motorways traffic from 56% to 48% and domestic Air demand from
10% to 8.5%. The reduction of modal shares higher on motorways than by Air, can be explained by the
configuration of the Italian HSR network, which, due to the topography of the Country, mainly connects
population and activities at distances in between 100-250 km’s where Air demand is negligible, and, the induced
demand effects are higher. The rise in passengers has been matched by an even more substantial increase, in
terms of passenger-km. This phenomenon is due to the increase in the average travel distance.
The increase of HSR demand between 2009 and 2012 corresponds to about 5 million more passengers for
Trenitalia, and to about 2 million passengers carried by NTV in 2012. It is interesting to note that even Trenitalia
has further increased HSR patronage in 2012, despite the entry into operation of the competitors NTV.
The above 7 millions of trips consist mainly of users moving over short distances and for vacation. It includes,
however, a number of users (i.e. the new “HSR commuters") who, thanks to the fast connections, were able to
change their lifestyle, changing place of residence or study, or even working, starting to commute daily or weekly
on HS trains between new homes and places of work or study, and vice versa.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the NTV and NET-Engineering companies in the person of Dr. Giuseppe Bonollo
and Ing. Vito Velardi for providing access to the data, based on which the analysis presented in this paper have
been carried on.
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