Public Policy Analysis

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Public Policy Analysis
Fifth Edition
WILLIAM N. DUNN
Graduate School of Public and International Affairs
University of Pittsburgh
Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Dunn, William N.
Public policy analysis : an introduction / William N. Dunn.—5th ed.
p. cm.
ISBN-13: 978-0-205-25257-2
ISBN-10: 0-205-25257-5
1. Policy sciences. 2. Political planning—Evaluation. I. Title.
H61.D882 2011
320.6—dc23
2011028590
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In memory of Donald T. Campbell
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PART I Methodology of Inquiry 1
CHAPTER 1 The Process of Policy Analysis 2
CHAPTER 2 Policy Analysis in the Policy-Making Process 31
PART II Methods of Policy Analysis 65
CHAPTER 3 Structuring Policy Problems 66
CHAPTER 4 Forecasting Expected Policy Outcomes 117
CHAPTER 5 Prescribing Preferred Policies 188
CHAPTER 6 Monitoring Observed Policy Outcomes 245
CHAPTER 7 Evaluating Policy Performance 309
PART III Methods of Policy Communication 337
CHAPTER 8 Developing Policy Arguments 338
CHAPTER 9 Communicating Policy Analysis 381
APPENDIX 1 Policy Issue Papers 422
APPENDIX 2 Executive Summaries 429
APPENDIX 3 Policy Memoranda 433
APPENDIX 4 Oral Briefings 440
BRIEF CONTENTS
v
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BOX CONTENTS
USEFUL CONCEPTS, GUIDES, AND CHECKLISTS
BOX xx Conducting a Stakeholder Analysis 000
BOX 4.1 Transit Equity: A Look at MARTA 184
BOX 5.1 The Over-Advocacy Trap 191
BOX xx Identifying Types of Policy Claims 000
BOX xx Mapping a Policy Argument 000
BOX xx Interpreting Policy Arguments 000
BOX 9.1 Policy Analysis Resembles a Poorly
Managed Lumber Mill 382
BOX 9.2 Contigent Communication 386
BOX xx Communicating with Multiples
Audiences 000
BOX xx Checklist for Evaluating an Oral
Briefing 000
BOX xx Checklist for Evaluating a Policy Issue
Paper 000
vi
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vii
CASE STUDY CONTENTS
LESSONS FROM PRACTICE
Forecasting Technological Impacts with a Goeller
Scorecard 22
Using a Spreadsheet to Evaluate Benefits and Costs
of Energy Policies 24
Constructing an Influence Diagram and Decision
Tree to Structure a Problem in Energy
Policy 25
Using Argument Maps to Structure a Problem
in International Security and Foreign
Policy 27
Are Policy Analysts Technocrats? 60
Understanding the Uses of Policy Analysis 64
Structuring Problems of Risk in Mining and
Transportation 112
Brainstorming Across Disciplines—The Elevator
Problem 116
Conceptual Errors in Regression Analysis—
The Anscombe Quartet 183
Revenue Forecasting and Environmental
Justice 184
Opportunity Costs of Saving Lives—The 55 mph
Speed Limit 240
Understanding Policy Outcomes:The Political
Economy of Traffic Fatalities in Europe and
the United States 306
The Political Economy of Traffic Fatalities in Europe
and the United States The Economics of
Morality—Evaluating Living Wage Policies 334
Pros and Cons of Balkan Intervention 375
Images and Arguments in the Second Persian
Gulf Crisis 377
Translating Arguments About Intervention in Iraq
into Policy Documents—Issue Papers, Position
Papers, and Letters to the Editor 400
Communicating Statistical Analyses to Multiple
Audiences—Regulating Leaded Gasoline 404
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viii
VISUAL DISPLAY CONTENTS
FIGURES FOR ORGANIZING THINKING
1.1 The Process of Integrated Analysis 6
1.2 Forms Strategies of Analysis 10
1.3 Elements of a Policy Argument 19
C1.3 Influence Diagram and Decision Tree 26
C1.4.1 Simple Argument Maps Are Static and
Uncontested 28
C1.4.2 Complex Argument Maps Are Dynamic and
Contested 30
2.1 The Policy-Making Process Has Multiple
Functions and Stages 44
2.2 The Process of Integrated Analysis 53
3.1 Problem Sensing versus Problem
Structuring and Problem Sensing 68
3.2 Hierarchy of Types of Policy Issues 72
3.3 Phases of Problem Structuring 76
3.4 A Symbolic Model 83
3.5 Simulation Model 84
3.6 Assumed Effects of Xon Y85
3.7 Map of Transportation Point in Central
Region 87
3.8 Solution for Nine-Dot Problem 87
3.9 Pareto Chart—Estimated Boundary
of Problem 91
3.10 Set Union 94
3.11 Set Intersection 95
3.12 Classification Scheme 95
3.13 Crossbreak 95
3.14 Hierarchy Analysis of the Causes of Fires 98
3.15 The Process of Assumption Analysis 105
3.16 Distribution of Warrant by Plausibility
and Importance Scores 107
C3.1 Pareto Chart—Cumulative Frequency of
Rival Causes of Traffic Fatalities 114
C3.2 Pareto Chart—Cumulative Frequency
of Criteria for Evaluating Research on
Risk 115
4.1 Three Types of Societal Futures: Potential,
Plausible, and Normative 121
4.2 The Logic of Extrapolation: Inductive
Reasoning 125
4.3 The Logic of Theoretical Prediction:
Deductive Reasoning 126
4.4 The Logic of Conjecture: Abductive
Reasoning 127
4.5 Demonstration of a Secular Trend; Total
Arrests per 1,000 Population in Chicago,
1940–70 129
4.6 Demonstration of Cyclical Fluctuations:
Total Arrests Per 1,000 Population in
Chicago, 1868–1970 130
4.7 Two Properties of Linear Regression 132
4.8 Five Classes of Nonlinear Time Series 137
4.9 Growth of Federal Government
Organizations in the United States
by Presidential Term, 1789–1973 139
4.10 Linear Versus Growth Trends 140
4.11 Four Types of Causal Arguments 149
4.12 Arrow Diagram Illustrating the Causal
Structure of an Argument 151
4.13 Path Diagram Illustrating a Model of Public
Choice Theory 154
4.14 Scatterplot Illustrating Different Patterns
and Relationships Between Hypothetical
Annual Maintenance Costs and Annual
Mileage per Vehicle 157
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C4.1 The Anscombe Quartet 183
5.1 Simple Model of Choice 191
5.2 Cost-Effectiveness Comparisons Using
Four Criteria of Adequacy 198
5.3 Three Types of Good in the Public and Private
Sectors 205
5.4 Supply and Demand Curves and the Equilibrium
Price–Quantity Combination 206
5.5 Classification of Costs and Benefits According
to Four Types of Questions 210
5.6 Objectives Tree for National Energy
Policy 220
5.7 Value-Critical Debate 223
5.8 Simplified Partial Cost Model for Total
Initial Investment 225
5.9 Constraints Map for National Energy
Policy 228
5.10 Comparison of Discounted and
Undiscounted Costs Cumlated for Two
Programs with Equal Effectiveness 230
5.11 Threats to the Plausibility of Claims About the
Benefits of the 55 mph Speed Limit 235
6.1 Regulative and Allocative Actions and Their
Implementation Through Agencies, Programs,
and Projects 249
6.2 General Framework for Monitoring 254
6.3 Sample Research Survey Form 268
6.4 Two Graphic Displays of Motor Vehicle
Deaths, 1970–77 270
6.5 Spurious and Plausible Interpretations of Data
on Municipal Firefighting Activities 271
6.6 Bar Graph Showing Total Municipal Personnel
Costs per Capita for Cities with Growing and
Declining Populations and for New York
City 272
6.7 Histogram and Frequency Polygon: Number of
Persons Below the Poverty Threshold by Age
Group in 1977 273
6.8 Lorenz Curve Showing Distribution of Family
Personal Income in the United States in 1989
and 1975 274
6.9 Interrupted Time Series Showing Effects and
no Effects 285
6.10 Connecticut Traffic Deaths Before and After
the 1956 Crackdown on Speeding 286
6.11 Interrupted Time-Series Graph Displaying
Connecticut Traffic Fatalities Before
and After the 1956 Crackdown on
Speeding 287
6.12 Control-Series Graph Displaying Traffic
Fatalities in Connecticut and Control States,
1951–59 288
6.13 Threats to Validity as Objections 290
6.14 Tie-Breaking Experiment and Regression-
Discontinuity Analysis 294
6.15 Graphic Display of Results of Regression-
Discontinuity 300
8.1 Structure of a Policy Argument 340
8.2 Argument Map—Privatizing
Transportation 342
8.3 Argumentation from Authority—Unintended
Consequences of the U.S.-NATO Attack on
Yugoslavia 346
8.4 Argumentation from Method Intransitivity of
Preferences for Nuclear Power 348
8.5 Argumentation from Generalization—Staistical
Influence as a Basic for Success in Community
Nutrition 350
8.6 Argumentation from Classification—
Challenging Claims about Authoritarian Rule
and Terrorism 352
8.7 Argumentation from Theoretical Cause—
Competing Deductive-Nomological Explanations
of the Cuban Missile Crisis 355
8.8 Argumentation from Practical Cause—Rival
Explanations of the Effects of the
Connecticut Crackdown on Speeding 358
8.9 Argumentation from Sign—Quantitative
Indicators Such as Correlation Coefficients and
P-Values Do Not “Prove”Causation 359
8.10 Argumentation from Motivation—Support for
the Equal Rights Amendment 362
8.11 Argumentation from Intuition—A
Counterintuitive Solution Avoids
Certain Death 363
8.12 Argumentation from Analogy—The Equal
Rights Amendment and False Analogy 364
Visual Display Contents ix
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xVisual Display Contents
8.13 Argumentation from Parallel Case—The
Dutch Model and False Parallel 365
8.14 Argumentation from Ethics—Income
Distribution and Justice as Fairness 367
C8.2 Senate Arguments Supporting and Opposing
U.S. Involvement Under Security Council
Resolution 678 Authorizing Military
Intervention to Force the Withdrawal of Iraq
from Kuwait (November 29, 1990) 379
9.1 The Process of Policy Communication 383
9.2 Lead Use in Gasoline Production and Average
NHANES II Blood Lead Levels 407
9.3 Data Samples with Identical Correlations
but Different Regression Lines 410
x
TABLES FOR ORGANIZING THINKING
C1.1 Scorecard 23
C1.2 Scorecard and Spreadsheet 25
2.1 Phases of the Policy-Making Process 43
2.2 The Voters’ Paradox 47
3.1 Differences in the Structure of Three Classes
of Policy Problems 73
3.2 Comparison of Methods of Problem
Structuring 89
3.3 Number of Households Living Below Poverty
Level, 1968–2006 93
4.1 Contrasts Between Goals and Objectives 122
4.2 Three Approaches to Forecasting with Their
Bases, Appropriate Techniques and
Products 128
4.3 Time-Series Data on Total Energy
Consumption Used in Linear
Regression 133
4.4 Linear Regression with an Even-Numbered
Series 134
4.5 Square Root and Logarithm of a Time Series
Exhibiting Rapid Growth 143
4.6 Linear Regression with Logarithmic
Transformation of Time Series 145
4.7 Worksheet for Estimating Future
Maintenance Costs from Annual Mileage per
Vehicle 159
4.8 Calculation of Standard Error of Estimated
Maintenance Costs 161
4.9 Types of Items and Scales Used in a Policy
Delphi Questionnaire 169
4.10 Hypothetical Responses in First-Round
Policy Delphi: Desirability and Feasibility of
Drug-Control Objectives 170
4.11 Cross-Impact Matrix Illustrating
Consequences of Mass Automobile
Use 173
4.12 Hypothetical Illustration of First Round
(Play) in a Cross-Impact Matrix 175
4.13 Feasibility Assessment of Two Fiscal Policy
Alternatives 179
4.14 MARTA Receipts, 1973–2010(000s) 186
5.1 Complex Model of Choice 193
5.2 Transitive and Intransitive Choices 194
5.3 Criteria of Adequacy: Four Types of
Problems 197
5.4 Comparison of Benefit-Cost Ratio and Net
Benefits as Criteria of Adequacy (in thousands
of dollars) 200
5.5 Ten Tasks in Conducting a Cost-Benefit
Analysis 213
5.6 Methods and Techniques for Prescription 219
5.7 Cost Element Structure 224
5.8 Internal, External, and Total Cos ts of
Maternal Care 229
5.9 Calculation of Present Value of Cost Stream
at 10 Percent Discount Rate over Five Years
(in millions of dollars) 232
5.10 Sensitivity Analysis of Gasoline Prices on
Costs of Training Programs 234
5.11 Measuring the Costs and Benefits of the 55
mph Speed Limit: A Critical Appraisal 241
6.1 Types of Actions and Policy Outcomes: Inputs,
Process, Outputs, and Impacts in Three Issue
Areas 250
6.2 Four Approaches to Monitoring 252
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Visual Display Contents xi
6.3 Some Representative Social Indicators 257
6.4 Case-Coding Scheme 266
6.5 Sample Results of the Research Survey
Method: Empirical Generalizations, Action
Guidelines, and Levels of Confidence in
Generalizations 267
6.6 Techniques Appropriate to Four Approaches
to Monitoring 269
6.7 Grouped Frequency Distribution: Number of
Persons Below the Poverty Threshold by Age
Group in 1977 273
6.8 Computation of Gini Concentration Ratio for
Violent Crimes Known to Police per 100, 000
Population in 1976 276
6.9 Poverty Rates in 1968, 1990, and 2006
by Age and Race 277
6.10 Number of Drunk Rearrests among 241
Offenders in Three Treatment Groups 277
6.11 Use of Consumer Price Index (1982–84 ⫽100)
to Compute Purchasing Power Index 279
6.12 Real Weekly Wages in the United States,
2001–10 279
6.13 Maximum Concentration of Pollutants
Reported in Chicago Philadelphia, and San
Francisco for Averaging Times of Five Minutes
and One Year 281
6.14 Implicitly Weighted Aggregative Quantity
Index to Measure Changes in Pollutants in the
United States, 1970–75 282
6.15 Duration of Exposure to Pollutants and
Consequent Damage to Health and the
Environment 283
6.16 Worksheet for Regression and Correlation:
Investment in Training Programs and
Subsequent Employment of Trainees 291
6.17 Distribution of Cities by Scores on a
Hypothetical Index of Pollution
Severity 295
6.18 Results of Regression-Discontinuity Analysis
for Hypothetical Experimental and Control
Cities 296
7.1 Basic Value Typology:Terminal and
Instrumental Values 317
7.2 Criteria for Evaluation 322
7.3 Three Approaches to Evaluation 323
7.4 Types of Formal Evaluation 324
7.5 Techniques for Evaluation by Three
Approaches 331
7.6 Interview Protocol for User-Survey Analysis
Chapter Summary 331
8.1 Modes of Policy Argumentation with
Reasoning Patterns 344
8.2 Guidelines for Identifying Invalid Arguments
and Fallacies 372
9.1 Two Kinds of Policy Disciplines 387
9.2 Elements of an Issue Paper and Methods for
Creating Information Relevant to Each
Element 389
9.3 Basic Regression Model for Estimating the
Effects of Gasoline Lead on Blood Lead 415
9.4 Present Values of Costs and Benefits of Final
Rule, 1985–1992 (millions of 1983
dollars) 421
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DETAILED CONTENTS
Preface xx
Acknowledgements xxi
Part I Methodology of Policy
Analysis 1
CHAPTER 1
The Process of Policy Analysis 2
Learning Objectives 2
Methodology of Policy Analysis 3
Policy Analysis—A Multidisciplinary
Framework 4
Policy-Relevant Information 5
Policy-Informational Transformations 7
Policy-Analytic Methods 8
Four Strategies of Analysis 10
Prospective and Retrospective Analysis 10
Descriptive and Normative Analysis 13
Problem Finding and Problem Solving 13
Segmented and Integrated Analysis 14
The Practice of Policy Analysis 15
Reconstructed Logic versus Logic-in-Use 15
Methodological Opportunity Costs 16
Critical Thinking and Public Policy 17
The Structure of Policy Arguments 18
Chapter Summary 21
Review Questions 21
Demonstration Exercises 21
The Goeller Scorecard—Monitoring and Forecasting
Technological Impacts 22
The Spreadsheet—Evaluating Benefits and Costs of
Energy Policies 24
The Influence Diagram and Decision
Tree—Structuring Problems of Energy Policy
and International Security 25
The Argument Map—Problem Structuring in
National Defense and Transportation Policy 27
Bibliography 22
CHAPTER 2
Policy Analysis in the Policy-Making
Process 31
Learning Objectives 31
The Historical Context 32
Early Origins 32
The Nineteenth-Century Transformation 35
The Twentieth Century 37
The Policy-Making Process 42
Models of Policy Change 45
Comprehensive Rationality 45
Second-Best Rationality 46
Disjointed Incrementalism 48
Bounded Rationality 49
Mixed Scanning 50
Erotetic Rationality 51
Critical Convergence 51
Punctuated Equilibrium 52
Policy Analysis in the Policy Process 53
Potential Uses of Analysis 53
Uses of Analysis in Practice 56
Chapter Summary 58
Review Questions 58
Demonstration Exercises 58
Are Policy Analysts Technocrats? 60
Understanding the Uses of Policy Analysis 64
Bibliography 59
xii
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Part II Methods of Policy
Analysis 65
CHAPTER 3
Structuring Policy Problems 66
Learning Objectives 66
Nature of Policy Problems 67
Beyond Problem Solving 67
Characteristics of Problems 69
Problems verses Issues 71
Three Classes of Policy
Problems 73
Problem Structuring in Policy
Analysis 75
Creativity in Problem Structuring 75
Phases of Problem Structuring 76
Errors of the Third Type (EIII)78
Policy Models and Problem
Structuring 80
Descriptive Models 80
Normative Models 81
Verbal Models 81
Symbolic Models 82
Procedural Models 83
Models as Surrogates and
Perspectives 84
Methods of Problem Structuring 88
Boundary Analysis 88
Classification Analysis 92
Hierarchy Analysis 96
Synectics 97
Brainstorming 99
Multiple Perspective Analysis 101
Assumption Analysis 103
Argument Mapping 106
Chapter Summary 108
Review Questions 108
Demonstration Exercises 109
Structuring Problems of Risk in Mining and
Transportation 112
Brainstorming Across Disciplines: The Elevator
Problem 116
Bibliography 110
CHAPTER 4
Forecasting Expected Policy
Outcomes 117
Learning Objectives 117
Forecasting in Policy Analysis 118
Aims of Forecasting 118
Limitations of Forecasting 119
Types of Futures 121
Goals and Objectives of Normative Futures 122
Sources of Goals, Objectives, and Alternatives 123
Approaches to Forecasting 124
Objects and Bases of Forecasts 124
Choosing Methods and Techniques 128
Extrapolative Forecasting 128
Classical Time-Series Analysis 129
Exhibit 4.1 SPSS Output for
Tables 4.3 and 4.4 145
Linear Trend Estimatiom 131
Nonlinear Time Series 137
Exponential Weighting 141
Data Transformation 142
Catastrophe Methodology 144
Theoretical Forecasting 147
Theory Mapping 148
Theoretical Modeling 152
Causal Modeling 153
Regression Analysis 155
Point and Interval Estimation 160
Correlation Analysis 163
Exhibit 4.2 SPSS Output for Table 4.7 164
Judgmental Forecasting 165
The Delphi Technique 165
Cross-Impact Analysis 172
Feasibility Assessment 176
Chapter Summary 180
Review Questions 180
Detailed Contents xiii
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Demonstration Exercise 181
Conceptual Errors in Regression Analysis:
The Anscombe Quartet 183
Revenue Forecasting and Environmental
Justice 184
Box 4.1 Transit Equity: A Look At
MARTA 184
Bibliography 181
CHAPTER 5
Prescribing Preferred Policies 188
Learning Objectives 188
Prescription in Policy Analysis 189
Prescription and Policy Advocacy 189
A Simple Model of Choice 190
Box 5.1 The Over-Advocacy Trap 191
A Complex Model of Choice 192
Forms of Rationality 194
Criteria for Policy Prescription 196
Approaches to Prescription 203
Public versus Private Choice 204
Supply and Demand 205
Public Choice 207
Cost-Benefit Analysis 208
Types of Costs and Benefits 209
Tasks in Cost-Benefit Analysis 212
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 215
Methods and Techniques for
Prescription 218
Objectives Mapping 218
Value Clarification 220
Value Critique 221
Cost Element Structuring 222
Cost Estimation 224
Shadow Pricing 225
Constraint Mapping 226
Cost Internalization 227
Discounting 229
Sensitivity Analysis 233
A Fortiori Analysis 234
Plausibility Analysis 234
Chapter Summary 238
Review Questions 238
Demonstration Exercise 240
Opportunity Costs of Saving Lives—The 55 mph
Speed Limit 240
Bibliography 240
CHAPTER 6
Monitoring Observed Policy
Outcomes 245
Learning Objectives 245
Monitoring in Policy Analysis 246
Sources of Information 247
Types of Policy Outcomes 248
Types of Policy Actions 249
Definitions and Indicators 250
Approaches to Monitoring 252
Social Systems Accounting 255
Social Experimentation 259
Social Auditing 262
Research and Practice Synthesis 264
Techniques for Monitoring 269
Graphic Displays 269
The Gini Index 274
Tabular Displays 276
Index Numbers 278
Interrupted Time-Series Analysis 283
Control-Series Analysis 288
Regression-Discontinuity Analysis 289
Exhibit 6.1 SPSS Output for Table 6.17 292
Exhibit 6.2 SPSS Output for Tables 6.17 and
6.18 298
Chapter Summary 301
Review Questions 301
Demonstration Exercise 303
Understanding Policy Outcomes:
The Political Economy of Traffic Fatalities
in Europe and the United States 306
Bibliography 305
CHAPTER 7
Evaluating Policy Performance 309
Learning Objectives 309
xiv Detailed Contents
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Ethics and Values in Policy Analysis 310
Thinking About Values 310
Ethics and Meta-ethics 313
Standards of Conduct 315
Descriptive Ethics, Normative Ethics, and
Meta-ethics 316
Descriptive Value Typologies 316
Developmental Value Typologies 317
Normative Theories 318
Meta-ethical Theories 319
Evaluation in Policy Analysis 320
The Nature of Evaluation 320
Functions of Evaluation 321
Criteria for Policy Evaluation 321
Approaches to Evaluation 322
Pseudo-evaluation 323
Formal Evaluation 323
Varieties of Formal Evaluation 325
Decision-Theoretic Evaluation 327
Methods for Evaluation 330
Chapter Summary 332
Review Questions 332
Demonstration Exercise 333
The Economics of Morality: Evaluating Living Wage
Policies 334
Bibliography 334
Part III Communicating Policy
Analysis 337
CHAPTER 8
Developing Policy Arguments 338
Learning Objectives 338
The Structure of Policy Arguments 339
Types of Knowledge Claims 341
Policy Maps 341
Procedural Guide 8.1: Identifying and Arranging
Elements of a Policy Argument 343
Modes of Policy Argumentation 344
Argumentation from Authority 345
Argumentation from Method 347
Argumentation from Generalization 349
Argumentation from Classification 352
Argumentation from Cause 353
Argumentation from Sign 357
Argumentation from Motivation 361
Argumentation from Intuition 362
Argumentation from Analogy 364
Argumentation from Parallel Case 365
Argumentation from Ethics 366
Evaluating Policy Arguments 368
Some Hermeneutic Guidelines 369
Procedural Guide 8.2 Guidelines for Interpreting
Arguments 370
Guidelines from Informal and Formal Logic 371
Chapter Summary 374
Review Questions 374
Demonstration Exercises 374
Pros and Cons of Balkan Intervention 375
Images, Arguments, and the Second Persian Gulf
Crisis, 1990–91 377
Bibliography 375
CHAPTER 9
Communicating Policy Analysis 381
Learning Objectives 381
Box 9.1 Producing Policy Analysis—A Poorly
Managed Lumber Mill 382
The Process of Policy Communication 382
Tasks in Policy Documentation 382
Tasks in Oral Presentations and Briefings 385
Box 9.2 Contingent Communication 386
The Policy Issue Paper 386
Issues Addressed in the Policy Issue Paper 387
Elements of the Policy Issue Paper 388
The Policy Memorandum 389
The Executive Summary 390
The Letter of Transmittal 390
The Oral Briefing and Visual Displays 391
Policy Analysis in the Policy-Making
Process 393
Characteristics of Information 394
Modes of Inquiry 394
Detailed Contents xv
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xvi Detailed Contents
Structure of Problems 395
Political and Bureaucratic Structures 395
Interactions among Stakeholders 396
Chapter Summary 396
Review Questions 397
Demonstration Exercise 397
Translating Policy Arguments into Issue Papers,
Position Papers, and Letters to the Editor—The Case
of the Second Persian Gulf War 400
Communicating Stastical Analysis to multiple
audiences: Regulating leaded Gaseline 404
Bibliography 397
The Policy Issue Paper 422
The Executive Summary 429
The Policy Memorandum 423
Planning Oral Briefings 440
Author Index 000
Subject Index 000
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xvii
My aim in writing the several editions of this book has been to produce a
critical synthesis of the field, while at the same time offering students,
instructors, and practitioners a body of knowledge and skills that is
applicable to real-world problems. This is not a text in the narrow and conven-
tional sense of the term.
Ever since the publication of the first edition of Public Policy Analysis more
than thirty years ago, I have become more and more convinced that the methodology
of policy analysis rests or should rest on epistemological foundations that differ
from those of the disciplines of which policy analysis is composed. For this reason,
I continue to define policy analysis as an applied social science discipline that
employs multiple methods of inquiry to solve practical problems.
What this means is that the methodology of policy analysis cannot be reduced
to the theories and analytical routines of microeconomics, because solutions for
practical problems demand much more than the analysis of rational choice,
expected utility, and opportunity costs. By the same token, the methodology of
policy analysis cannot be reduced to the study of politics, because solutions for
practical problems require more than the analysis of power, rule, and authority or
who gets what, when, and how. Much more is involved. Finally, because a
principal aim of policy analysis is to improve policies, the methodology of policy
analysis cannot be reduced to an academic spectator sport in which knowledge is
prized for its own sake.
This broadly accessible 5th edition employs a simplified style of writing, cases
based on real-world analytical practices, and visual displays that make complex
ideas understandable. Examples and case materials now include issues in foreign
policy and international security as well as domestic issues including environmen-
tal justice, urban economics, transportation, and public safety. Advanced graphics
software for mapping and evaluating policy arguments cultivates critical thinking
skills in areas ranging from qualitative forecasting and statistical analysis to
theories of justice. The book also provides student with practical and marketable
skills in communicating policy analysis through policy memos, position papers,
and other forms of structured analytical writing. Finally, new study suggestions
and demonstration exercises emphasize active rather than passive learning.
Special instructional devices and learning strategies are again employed throughout
the book:
䊏Advance organizers. The book uses advance organizers, especially visual
displays, to introduce students to the logic and organization of methods.
The advance organizer for the book as a whole is the information-processing
model of policy analysis presented in the first chapter.
䊏Learning objectives. At the beginning of each chapter is an explicit
statement of the learning objectives that students should be able to attain
PREFACE
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xviii Preface
by reading the chapter and completing its study questions and demonstration
exercises. I have tried to state these objectives in terms of the acquisition
of knowledge and skills to do or perform something—that is, behaviorally
defined learning objectives that involve recognizing, defining, understanding,
explaining, predicting, evaluating, and applying. By stating objectives in this
way, the emphasis is on active rather than passive learning, on application
rather than regurgitation.
䊏Review questions. Knowledge and skills must be reinforced. For this
reason, review questions are provided at the end of each chapter. The review
questions address higher-order knowledge and skills (e.g., explaining or
applying) as well as lower-order knowledge and skills (e.g., calculating or
estimating). Review questions may be used by students for self-study and by
instructors who are developing written assignments, examinations, and tests.
䊏Demonstration exercises. Knowledge and skills are not acquired or retained
without frequent opportunities for application to real-world problems.
For this reason, each chapter contains opportunities to demonstrate the
application of knowledge and skills to significant practical problems. The
attempt is to draw students away from “blackboard policy analysis” into
the real world of messy problems and provisional solutions.
䊏Cases. Cases in policy analysis are the focus of the demonstration exercises.
Cases span a number of issue areas including foreign policy and security,
transportation policy, occupational health and safety, and urban policy. Some
cases are primarily conceptual; most are methodological in nature.
䊏Bibliographies. In addition to literature cited in footnotes, each chapter is
accompanied by a list of readings that are keyed to the subject matter of that
chapter. I have attempted to include literature that is representative of many
of the most important developments in public policy analysis.
䊏Guidelines for written and oral communication. Students who master
methods almost always face difficulties when they must communicate the
results of analysis through policy memoranda, position papers, issue papers,
and oral briefings. To help overcome these difficulties, appendices present
step-by-step guidelines and checklists.
䊏Argument maps. Analysis is about making and understanding policy
arguments. This edition uses numerous argument maps created with Rationale,
an exceptionally useful and innovative computer program available at
www.austhink.com. Elsewhere I have expressed my gratitude to Professor Tim
van Gelder, one of the originators of the program, for his help.
SUPPLEMENTS
WEBSITE A special website (www.policyonline.org) supports users of this book by
providing slides keyed to each chapter and data sets related to cases covered in the
chapters. Many of the slides can serve as teaching notes.
ARGUMENT MAPPING SOFTWARE Users of this book may purchase Rationale 2 at a
student discount by visiting www.austhinkconsulting.com/dunn.
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Preface xix
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would not have begun this ambitious multidisciplinary project without the
encouragement of the late Paul F. Lazarsfeld, who challenged me to investigate and
write about what he called the “policy sciences movement.” Lazarsfeld, one of a
handful of premier applied social scientists of the twentieth century, was skeptical
of the enterprise, as it had been sketched by Lasswell, Kaplan, Lerner, and others.
Its aims seemed to him unwisely all-encompassing and grand, an assessment that
holds some truth today. Lazarsfeld did not self-identify as a sociologist, but as an
applied social scientist and, for this reason, he was University Professor of Social
Science at the University of Pittsburgh.
Some ten years later, we made an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to fill
Lazarsfeld’s vacant chair with another premier applied social scientist, Donald
T. Campbell, who virtually revolutionized the methodology of the applied social
sciences in the twentieth century. Campbell, like Lazarsfeld, did not self-identify
with his original discipline, which was social psychology. Instead, he viewed
himself as a multidisciplinary applied social scientist specializing in program and
policy evaluation and the philosophy and sociology of science. Campbell’s
mentorship has had a profound effect on the way I think about the strengths and
limitations of policy analysis and program evaluation. His imprint can be seen
throughout this book.
At about the same time, I was asked to join a team of faculty who were
developing curricular materials on policy analysis for practitioners in local
governments. The group had wisely contracted specialists in learning theory and
curriculum development, including Doris Gow and Jyotsna Vasudev. I learned
from them the important pedagogical lesson that abstract subjects such as policy
analysis can be more effectively taught by focusing on behaviorally defined
learning objectives. I am grateful to them for making me see that much of the
literature we assign in courses is not easily or successfully tied to learning
outcomes, which means that we often cannot say why we want students to read
the materials we assign. This was a revelation.
I have been fortunate to meet and work with colleagues who changed my mind
about many things, including the important role that the philosophy and sociology
of science play in the applied social sciences. These colleagues include Ian
I. Mitroff; Burkart Holzner; and my former student and now professor, Bahman
Fozouni, who introduced me to yet other colleagues in the Center for History and
Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh. I learned much about the
pragmatic importance of policy analysis and the applied social sciences from
Gerald Zaltman, Robert F. Rich, Thomas D. Cook, and Carol H. Weiss, all of
whom were and are committed to investigating and deliberately changing the con-
ditions under which the social sciences may be used to solve practical problems.
Faculty and students in the Graduate School of Public and International
Affairs (GSPIA), University of Pittsburgh, have challenged my thinking, writing,
and teaching. They include Alex Weilenman, Louise Comfort, Tom Pavlak, John
Mendeloff, Hector Correa, Michael Sabath, Soumana Sako, Sam Overman, Tony
Cahill, Kevin Kearns, Dave Miller, Mary Jo Dukes, Ralph Bangs, Jan Jernigan, and
Andrea Hegedus, all of whom were affiliated with the doctoral program in Public
Policy Research and Analysis at GSPIA. Most recently, two new colleagues have
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xx Preface
been important to me in writing this edition. The first is my new junior colleague,
Ilia Murtazashvili, whose critiques of many of the ideas in this book have helped me
question and improve my thinking and writing. I am also indebted to Tim van
Gelder of the University of Melbourne and Austhink Consulting for introducing me
to Rationale, a brilliant new computer program that enables users to map policy
arguments, probe the assumptions underlying policy claims, and practice critical
thinking. Argument maps created with Rationale appear throughout this edition of
Public Policy Analysis.
In the past thirty years and more, this book has been used in degree and
certificate programs in universities, think tanks, and governments in this country
and abroad. Translations into Arabic, Chinese, Indonesian, Korean, Macedonian,
Romanian, and Spanish are completed or under way. The book has been used in
training programs and projects in countries of the European Union, Southeastern
Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America. The revisions incorpo-
rated in this edition reflect much of what I have learned from the participants and
organizers of these programs.
I am also deeply grateful to students and faculty at the Graduate Center for
Public Policy and Management in Skopje, Macedonia, a great but now inactive
institution with some of the best students I have ever taught. I also want to thank
reviewers of this and previous editions. In addition to anonymous reviewers, they
include David Nice of Washington State University, David Houston of the
University of Tennessee at Knoxville, and Louise Comfort of the University of
Pittsburgh. Sheila Kelly, Lien Rung-Kao, Sujatha Raman, Eric Sevigny, Kate Freed,
Bojana Aceva-Andonova, Erin McGrath, Alla Golovina Khadka, and Jessica Reyes
assisted in preparing materials for this and previous editions. Finally, I am grateful
for the splendid editorial assistance of Integra Software Services Pvt Ltd, in
Pondicherry, India, and the editors at Pearson. Special mention goes to Toni Magyar,
political science editor at Pearson, who provided masterful editorial support and
exceptionally creative guidance in helping me with this fifth edition.
William N. Dunn
Graduate School of Public and International Affairs
University of Pittsburgh
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