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Abstract

Are violent conflict and socio-political stability associated with changes in climatological variables? We examine 50 rigorous quantitative studies on this question and find consistent support for a causal association between climatological changes and various conflict outcomes, at spatial scales ranging from individual buildings to the entire globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium. Multiple mechanisms that could explain this association have been proposed and are sometimes supported by findings, but the literature is currently unable to decisively exclude any proposed pathway. Several mechanisms likely contribute to the outcomes that we observe.
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... Different perspectives strived to link security with the environment by narrowing down the debate to violent conflicts caused by varied environmental issues. Hsiang and Burke (2014) compiled studies that claimed a causal association between climate and social instability, and found "strong linkages" between climatic extremes (such as high temperatures or periods of drought) and decrease in social stability, even if an exact link and reasoning is unclear. ...
Thesis
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The following dissertation discusses the process of securitization of water scarcity in Jordan which took place in years 2013-2020. Jordanian authorities utilised a security narrative framing the Syrian refugee influx as aggravating water scarcity in the country. During the course of the analysis, special attention was paid to audiences the securitizing move was targeted towards, investigating their identity, influence and relations with other actors involved. The study was guided by a sociological approach to securitization that goes beyond Copenhagen School's initial formulation. It was conceptualised as a non-linear social process and a discursive practice with mutually constitutive agents, structures, and contexts. Theoretical base was supplemented with primary sources-Jordanian official documents and news articles-which revealed that the narrative adhered to the global water security discourse and relied on established heuristic cues to invoke security in relation to the refugees-water scarcity-Jordan nexus. This dissertation argues that the securitizing move was targeting both domestic and international audiences, with the latter, consisting of donor community, being the enabling audience and having a significant influence on threat construction. The findings further reaffirmed the important role of international donors in Jordan.
... The most vulnerable countries and regions to ACC, namely those that have extensive arid lands with water scarcity problems, countries with economies that are highly dependent on agriculture and with low socioeconomic development, fragile states, small island states, and the Arctic polar region, are also areas of significant military engagement [87]. However, the causal relation between climate change and conflict is difficult to establish [88,89]. During the Holocene, there is evidence that the consequences of natural climate change in conjunction with other stresses have led to armed conflicts and the disintegration of societies, and in some cases contributed to societal collapse [90][91][92][93]. ...
... The most vulnerable countries and regions to ACC, namely those that 341 have extensive arid lands with water scarcity problems, countries with economies that are 342 highly dependent on agriculture and with low socioeconomic development, fragile states, 343 small island states, and the Arctic polar region, are also areas of significant military en-344 gagement [88]. However, the causal relation between climate change and conflict is diffi-345 cult to establish [89,90]. More recently, there is evidence that the consequences of natural 346 climate change in conjunction with other stresses have led to armed conflicts and the dis-347 integration of societies, and in some cases contributed to societal collapse [91][92][93][94]. ...
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... Compared to this 5-year moving average, the 11-year moving average showed a 98% increase in PPR, and the 25-year moving average a 134% increase. This evidence is consistent with the argument that conflict between Murcia and church leaders was more likely under conditions of environmental duress caused by drought (Miguel et al. 2004, Hsiang andBurke 2014). ...
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We analyze the case of pro-pluvia rogations (PPR) performed by the Catholic Church in Murcia, Spain since 1600. PPR were ceremonies to ask God for rain. We show a structural break in the prayer data during the 1830s, coinciding with the end of the ancien régime in Spain. PPR responded to environmental shocks and were used by the civil and ecclesiastical authorities to control the population, ensure stability, and maintain the status quo. Thus, PPR in Murcia have acted as a social resilience instrument. At the same time, PPR highlight the conflict between civil and religious authorities and within religious authorities. Understanding the motives, timing, and other characteristics of religious rituals is crucial to understand the evolution of institutions, the persistence of beliefs and strategies for social adaptation to the environment over the long run.
... Going beyond prediction and assessment, Indigenous knowledge and practice can also be leveraged to develop climate adaptation approaches. Studies evaluating the perception and knowledge of informants about climate change also reveal vernacular responses, including Codjoe et al. (2014), Hsiang and Burke (2014), Tahmasebi (2012), Leiserowitz et al. (2010), and Hartman and Sugulle (2009). These studies provide evidence that climate change and drought have disproportionate economic and social impacts on peoples who are strongly dependent on natural resources, especially nomadic pastoralists. ...
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Nomadic pastoral communities are considered one of the most vulnerable to climate change. While indigenous knowledge can play an effective role in mitigating or responding to some impacts of climate change, the extent of their capacity to adapt their livestock and rangeland management is under question. This research aims to assess the scope and applicability of climate change related knowledge acquired in the management of summer rangeland, with a case study in Semirom, Isfahan Province, Iran. To do so, objective weather conditions (precipitation, min- and maximum temperatures) were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, and compared with subjective evaluations by nomad community members. Specifically, the study targeted a community of 7,700 members of the Qashqai, a conglomeration of nomadic tribes in Iran. Their understanding of the weather was evaluated using focus groups and self-administered questionnaires, with a descriptive approach to data analysis. The findings of the climatic investigation revealed a possible shift in the climate in the study area, particularly in winter and autumn. The findings of subjective evaluation showed similar changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature to be the main characteristics of climate change in the region, with about 90 percent of informants directly citing decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature and wind speeds. The community evaluation also highlighted some adaptations to climate change, such as delays in beginning the seasonal migration, increased reliance on concrete homes, reservoir construction, decreasing livestock yields, and increasing diversification of resources to feed livestock. Understanding the perceptions of nomadic pastoralists, their meteorological basis, and ongoing climate adaptations can facilitate governmental planning.
... Climate change is reflected by the long-term statistical shifts of weather, including the change of average weather conditions and the change of distribution of weather conditions around the average, such as extreme weather events (Wu et al., 2016). Climate change is an increasing challenge to the sustainable development of human society, by imposing substantial threats to ecological stability (Thuiller et al., 2005), food security (Wheeler and Braun, 2013), and energy supply (Turton and Barreto, 2006), impeding economic development (Tol, 2009;Rogerson, 2016), and increasing social instability (Hsiang and Burke, 2014). The University College London (UCL)-Lancet Commission issued a warning in 2009, which called climate change "the biggest global health threat of the 21st century" (Costello et al., 2009). ...
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