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Concerns for climate change and declining oil reserves lead to a shift of transportation systems in many industrial countries. However, alternative drive concepts contain to some extent critical raw materials. Since the availability of certain raw materials could be decisive for the success of emerging technologies, concerns are growing about the potential limitation of resources. This brought about a growing attention to the subjects of criticality and resource security of raw materials by science, policy and industry. Four of the resulting surveys are described in terms of their framing of criticality, their indicators for evaluating criticality, and their rankings of potentially critical raw materials. Critical raw materials are used in alternative drive concepts because of their specific properties. The focus of our work lies on batteries for electric vehicles with special attention to lithium-ion batteries being one of the most promising candidates for energy storage there. Lithium-ion batteries use as major cathode materials lithium, manganese and cobalt, all of which are potential critical. A material flow model of the global manganese cycle is developed. It could be identified that there is a lack of relevant data for processes and flows. The lack of data impedes a comprehensive view and therefore no final conclusions could be drawn, which advice the need for further research. Using manganese as an example, it could be illustrated how material flow analysis can contribute to compiling relevant preparatory work that can subsequently serve as a basis for a prospective support of a criticality evaluation and to inform stakeholders and policy makers about the effectiveness of various interventions to reduce the risk or the effects of supply chain disruptions.
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Revue de Métallurgie
c
EDP Sciences, 2013
DOI: 10.1051/metal/2013052
www.revue-metallurgie.org
Revue de
Métallurgie
The future of mobility and its critical raw
materials
S. Ziemann1,A.Grunwald
1,L.Schebek
2,D.B.Müller
3and M. Weil1,4
1
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis
(ITAS), P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany
e-mail: saskia.ziemann@kit.edu
2
Industrial Material Cycles, Technische Universität Darmstadt (TUD), Petersenstraße 13, Darmstadt,
Germany
3
Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and
Technology (NTNU), NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
4
Helmholtz Institute Ulm for Electrochemical Energy Storage, (HIU) Albert-Einstein-Allee 11,
89081 Ulm, Germany
Key words:
Resources; raw materials; criticality
assessment; manganese; lithium;
electric vehicles; lithium-ion
batteries; material flow analysis
Received 31 January 2013
Accepted 15 February 2013
Abstract – Concerns for climate change and declining oil reserves lead to a shift of trans-
portation systems in many industrial countries. However, alternative drive concepts contain
to some extent critical raw materials. Since the availability of certain raw materials could be
decisive for the success of emerging technologies, concerns are growing about the potential
limitation of resources. This brought about a growing attention to the subjects of criticality
and resource security of raw materials by science, policy and industry. Four of the resulting
surveys are described in terms of their framing of criticality, their indicators for evaluating
criticality, and their rankings of potentially critical raw materials. Critical raw materials are
used in alternative drive concepts because of their specific properties. The focus of our work
lies on batteries for electric vehicles with special attention to lithium-ion batteries being one
of the most promising candidates for energy storage there. Lithium-ion batteries use as ma-
jor cathode materials lithium, manganese and cobalt, all of which are potential critical. A
material flow model of the global manganese cycle is developed. It could be identified that
there is a lack of relevant data for processes and flows. The lack of data impedes a compre-
hensive view and therefore no final conclusions could be drawn, which advice the need for
further research. Using manganese as an example, it could be illustrated how material flow
analysis can contribute to compiling relevant preparatory work that can subsequently serve
as a basis for a prospective support of a criticality evaluation and to inform stakeholders
and policy makers about the effectiveness of various interventions to reduce the risk or the
effects of supply chain disruptions.
Two of the big challenges for sustain-
able development are climate change
and peak-oil. The greenhouse gas
emissions from vehicles as well as declin-
ing reserves of crude oil for gasoline produc-
tion entail the need for alternative drive con-
cepts. As diesel and gasoline vehicles are not
sustainable there is a strong need for a shift
of transportation systems in the future. Al-
ternative mobility concepts such as natural
gas vehicles (NGV)1, fuel cell vehicles (FCV)
and electric vehicles (EV) have a huge po-
tential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
1Natural gas vehicles use compressed natural
gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) as
fuel.
of road transport significantly [1]andthey
are no longer directly dependent on oil. In-
stead they are like many new technologies
intrinsically tied to so-called critical raw ma-
terials2(see Tab. 1) that are often essential for
the functioning of high-tech products.
Although there are dierent alternative
transportation technologies and their suc-
cessful implementation in the future is to
some extent unproven there can be no doubt
2A raw material is labelled as critical if it is of
high importance for key and important technolo-
gies and has only few or no satisfactory substi-
tutes in its major applications, if there is a high
probability of supply disruption and if such a
supply shortage mi ght have considerable impacts
on the economy of a country [2].
Article published by EDP Sciences
S. Ziemann et al.: Revue de Métallurgie
Table 1. Alternative drive concepts and critical raw materials (data source [3]).
Technologies Cr Cu Co Pb Li Mn Ni PGM REE
Natural gas vehicle x x x x
Fuel cell vehicle (FCV) x x x
Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV)* x x x x
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV)* x x x x x
Full electric vehicle (FEV)* x x x x
Electric motor x x
Dierent vehicle types are shown without electric motor.
Abbreviations: PGM (Platinum Group Metals), REE (Rare Earth Elements).
that critical minerals and metals respectively
will be an important component of future
mobility. Especially as there is an increased
interest for the electrification of transporta-
tion in many European countries, which is
expressed in making e.g. such national ac-
tion plans [1]:
The Netherlands: 200 000 electric vehi-
cles in 2020.
Denmark: 500 000 full electric vehicles in
2020.
Germany: one million electric vehicles in
2020.
Renault predicts an EU market with 2 mil-
lion full electric vehicles in 2020. How-
ever, there are concerns about potential con-
straints from essential raw materials. An
examination of their criticality is needed to
inform policy makers in industry and gov-
ernments about various measures to reduce
theriskofsupplychaindisruptions.
1 Criticality of raw materials
In recent years several studies on resource
security and critical raw materials were con-
ducted by dierent institutions from science,
policy and industry. A detailed analysis
shows that there are dierences regarding
terminology and framing of criticality as
well as the individual indicators and rank-
ings of considered raw materials. That could
be explained by the dierent backgrounds
and goals of the studies.
The dierent terms used are for example
rare metals, scarce metals, critical minerals,
critical raw materials, potentially critical raw
materials, vulnerable raw materials, strate-
gic metals.
Four of these studies are described in
more detail here. Although these studies
used similar terms and indicators, they
employed dierent methods to determine
criticality.
The National Research Council (NRC) [4]
uses two main criteria named “Supply
Risk” and “Impacts of Supply Restric-
tion” to evaluate the criticality of minerals.
To analyse the supply risk, five indica-
tors influencing present and future sup-
ply were used: US-import dependency,
world reserve/production ratio, world re-
serve base/production ratio, relative impor-
tance of byproduct mining in world pri-
mary production, and relative importance
of US secondary production in overall US
consumption. For evaluating the impacts of
a supply restriction three indicators were
used: value of US consumption, percent-
age of US consumption in existing uses for
which substitution is dicult or impossible,
andimportanceofgrowthinemerginguses
(committee’s judgment). A so-called “criti-
cality matrix“ was developed to define the
degree of criticality along two axes. The hor-
izontal axis represents supply risk, the ver-
tical axis impacts of supply restriction; both
axes use a scale from 1 (low) to 4 (high). On
the basis of the above-mentioned indicators,
eleven minerals were placed into the ma-
trix (cf. Tab. 2)–highnumbersonbothaxes
means increasing criticality of minerals.
IW Consult [5] developed a so-called raw
material risk index by order of Vereinigung
der Bayerischen Wirtschaft (vbw). This in-
dex contains eight indicators, of which five
are quantitative and three qualitative. The
quantitative indicators make up 60% of the
index with the following shares: lifetime of
reserves (12.5%), political stability of pro-
ducing countries (12.5%), regional concen-
tration of world production (15%), corporate
concentration of world production (10%),
2
S. Ziemann et al.: Revue de Métallurgie
Table 2. Overview about studies of critical raw materials.
Critical Potential critical Critical Environmentally
minerals raw materials raw materials relevant ores
Elements
Copper Chromium Antimony Gallium
Gallium Cobalt Beryllium Gold
Indium Germanium Cobalt Indium
Lithium Indium Fluorite Manganese
Manganese Lithium Gallium Nickel
Niobium Molybdene Germanium Palladium
PGM Neodyme Graphite Silver
REE Niobium Indium Tin
Tantalum PGM Magnesium Titanium
Titanium Scandium Niobium Zinc
Vanadium Selenium PGM
Tung st e n R E E
Yttrium Tantalum
Tung st e n
Region USA Bavaria (Germany) EU-27 Germany
Source NRC [4]vbw[5]EUCOM[6] Wittmer et al. [7]
and price risk (10%). The qualitative criteria
sum up to 40% and comprise: importance
for emerging technologies (15%), strategic
industry policy (15%), and substitutability
(10%). The risk index can reach 25 points at
the maximum for each raw material. This
index was applied to 37 metals and miner-
als dividing them subsequently into three
dierent risk classes. Risk class one (high
risk, 15–25 points) includes 15 raw materials
(cf. Tab. 2).
To identify critical raw materials for
the European Union (EU), a relative con-
cept of criticality is applied: a raw ma-
terial is labelled as critical if the risk of
supply disruption and the resulting im-
pacts on the economy are higher compared
with other raw materials [6]. Based on
existing methods such as NRC [4], three
aggregated indicators are used: economic
importance, supply risk, and environmen-
tal country risk. The economic importance
corresponds to the value of products depen-
dent on a specific raw material. This was
calculated with the help of the concept of
mega-sectors and their gross value added in
relation to the gross domestic product (GDP)
of the EU27. For determining the supply
risk, four criteria were combined: concentra-
tion of worldwide production (Herfindahl-
Hirschmann-Index), stability of producing
countries (Worldwide Governance Indica-
tor), recycling rate, and potential of substi-
tution. The environmental country risk re-
flects the ecological risks of raw material
production in these countries. This indica-
tor was determined using an environmental
country index based on the Environmental
Performance Index (EPI), the regional con-
centration of raw material deposits, the re-
cycling rate, as well as the substitutability.
The results of the individual indicators were
scaled so that the possible values lie between
zero and ten representing an increasing risk.
By means of these values, the raw materi-
als could be placed into the matrix consist-
ing of economic importance (vertical axis)
and supply risk (horizontal axis). By apply-
ing this method to the EU-27, 14 critical raw
materials were identified having both high
supply risks (>1) and high economic impor-
tance (>5) (cf. Tab. 2).
The project “Material Eciency and Re-
source Conservation” (MaRess) analysed
environmentally relevant ores [7]using
six indicators: world reserves, world re-
serve/production ratio, annual production
volume, commodity price, regional concen-
tration of production and reserves, dissipa-
tive use, and environmental relevance. The
latter was determined on the basis of cu-
mulative raw material demand (CRD), cu-
mulative energy demand (CED) and total
material requirement (TMR). The analysis
covered 66 metals and metal groups and
identified ten environmentally relevant ores
(cf. Tab. 2).
Indicators for measuring criticality rep-
resent the current situation and do not take
into account future development. Therefore,
3
S. Ziemann et al.: Revue de Métallurgie
Fig. 1. Specific power and specific energy of dierent battery types [3].
they only provide a snapshot of the current
situation rather than a detailed evaluation
of the development of resource availability
in the future. A change in factors such as
raw material demand or political stability of
producing countries could easily change the
criticality of certain raw materials. Never-
theless, these studies can serve as a starting
point for a more comprehensive assessment
of potential supply risks.
Two of the studies identified manganese
as a critical mineral or environmentally rele-
vant ore respectively (cf. Tab. 2). This is due
to its importance for most of its end-use ap-
plications, especially steel, aluminium bev-
erage cans, and dry-cell batteries, for which
no satisfactory substitutes for manganese ex-
ist so far. As steelmaking is an important
driver for the US economy, the relevance of
manganese is very high just as the impact of
a supply restriction [4]. Given that mining
of manganese ores and production of man-
ganese alloys show a regional concentration,
the supply risk for manganese is considered
to be severe for all applications [4,8]. Fur-
thermore, as an alloying metal in steel, man-
ganese is dissipated to some extent since
there are no eective recycling processes. In
addition manganese has a low reserve to
production ratio (<45 years), and is highly
environmentally relevant due to its high cu-
mulative energy demand [7,9].
2 Critical raw materials
for electric vehicles
Electric vehicles, and hence batteries to
power them, play an important role in con-
cepts of future mobility. The core of elec-
tric vehicles (independent of the type – hy-
brid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric
vehicle or full electric vehicle) is formed
by a rechargeable battery of diering size.
Rechargeable batteries come in dierent
types with dierent advantages and disad-
vantages for electric mobility (cf. Fig. 1).
Lithium-ion batteries are the most promis-
ing candidates for implementation in fu-
ture electric vehicles so far, mainly due
to their exceptional characteristics such as
low weight, high voltages, and high energy
densities which enables a wider driving
range. These characteristics are connected to
4
S. Ziemann et al.: Revue de Métallurgie
the unique qualities of the contained met-
als, making them rather indispensible for the
functioning. Especially the cathode materi-
als lithium, manganese and cobalt are essen-
tial for rechargeable batteries to be imple-
mented in electric vehicles [10].
Whereas the management of lithium re-
sources has been the subject of detailed in-
vestigations [1113], little attention has been
given to manganese so far. However, two
studies about critical raw materials iden-
tified manganese as such an element (see
Sect. 2). Manganese is, among others, a vi-
tal component of lithium-ion batteries be-
cause of its good electrochemical behav-
ior. All cathode materials for lithium based
systems with an interesting energy density
use manganese, cobalt and nickel as redox-
active materials. Although manganese has a
lower energy density than nickel and cobalt,
it is a lot cheaper to manufacture; thus
there are eorts to replace cobalt with man-
ganese. Additional benefits of lithium-ion
cells with manganese based electrodes are
high specific power, high current resistance,
increased safety, and long life [14].
3 Material flow analysis
of manganese
3.1 Material flow analysis
of metal cycles
Metal cycles describe the entire life cycle
of metals comprising their production, use
and disposal. They are dominated by anthro-
pogenic activities throughout the metal’s
lifetime [15].
Material flow analysis (MFA) is a scien-
tific method for the systematic assessment
of material flows and stocks within a sys-
temdenedinspaceandtime[16]. Thus,
MFA is a suitable analytical tool to charac-
terize the quantity of material stocks and
flows throughout metal cycles and to ob-
tain insight into important driving forces of
demand and basic conditions of supply in
global raw material cycles at present.
3.2 Manganese
Manganese is predominantly used in the
production of steel and cast iron. It is a vital
Ukraine
140 mio t
South Africa
120 mio t
Brazil
110 mio t
Australia
93 mio t
India
56 mio t
Gabon
52 mio t
China
44 mio t
Mexico
4 mio t
Fig. 2. Distribution of manganese reserves (data
source [18]).
alloying and refining element that improves
the strength of steel. It is also deployed as a
deoxidizing and desulphurizing agent dur-
ing the steelmaking process. Other impor-
tant uses of manganese are the battery sector
(e.g. dry cell batteries) and non-steel alloys.
In addition, there are nonmetallic uses of
manganese such as animal feed, fertilizers,
chemicals, colorants and pigments [17].
Manganese production is highly concen-
trated, with three countries being respon-
sible for nearly 60% of global production:
China, Australia, and South Africa. Man-
ganese reserves3total 619 000 000 tons and
show a similar regional concentration, with
a share of nearly 60% being distributed in
the three countries of Ukraine, South Africa
and Brazil (see Fig. 2). Manganese resources3
are concentrated even more, as South Africa
accounts for about 75% of the world’s iden-
tified manganese resources [18].
So far, there is no practical substitute
for manganese in steel production; its char-
acteristics make manganese indispensible
for achieving steel qualities used in a wide
3Resources are defined as a concentration or
occurrence of material of economic interest in
or on the earth’s crust in such form, quality,
and quantity that there are reasonable prospects
for economic extraction. Reserves can be de-
termined as that part of a mineral resource
which is economically mineable with existing
technologies [20].
5
S. Ziemann et al.: Revue de Métallurgie
Manganese Ore
Production
Ores
Use
Cans
Transportation
Cookware
Batteries
Chemicals
Fertilizers
Waste Management
0.324
0.324
Environment
manganese flows in million tons (Mt) of M n content per year
Construction
7.766
?
assumptions
10.800
0.862 Transportation
Manufacture
Other Uses
?
?
?
dissipative applications
4.832
SiMn
0.324
EMM
0.324
EMD
1.522 (slags)
Animal food
3.797
FeMn
Steel Industry
Foundry/Welding
Specialty Steel
Al-al loys
Cu-alloys
Machinery
Mn-Oxides
Mn-Sulphate
K-Permanganate
Mn-Phosphate
?EAF slags
? scrap steel ??
Fig. 3. Material flow model of manganese (2009) (Abbreviations: Silicomanganese (SiMn), Ferro-
manganese (FeMn ), Electrolytic Manganese Metal (EMM), Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD),
Electric Arc Furnace (EAF)) (datasource [17,20]).
variety of applications. Since steel produc-
tion is crucial for most industrial countries,
the impacts of a supply shortage of man-
ganese could be significant. The dependency
on primary manganese sources is aggra-
vated by the fact that manganese recycling
is very low: scrap recovery specifically for
manganese is insignificant, and manganese
within steel scrap that is recycled to steel-
making is largely lost because of its removal
in the decarburization step of steelmaking,
andneedstobeaddedback[19].
3.3 Modelling the global manganese
cycle
We analysed the global manganese cycle in-
cluding all relevant production, manufac-
ture, use, recycling and waste management
routes. Figure 3reflects preliminary results
of this material flow model (Fig. 3).
Data for global manganese consumption
by end use were not available. The figures
for the model were therefore calculated from
production data of USGS [18]andtransfer
coecients for sector split and yield losses
provided Gandhi [21].
Manganese ore production accounted for
10.8 million metric tons of “Mn content” in
the year 2009 [18]. The major share of man-
ganese ore, namely 94%, is converted into
manganese alloys, whereas the remaining
6% are used for making electrolytic man-
ganese products such as electrolytic man-
ganese metals (EMM) and electrolytic man-
ganese dioxides (EMD). While EMM and
EMD production has high yields, the pro-
duction of 8.629 Mt of ferromanganese and
silicomanganese has yield losses of about
15%, resulting in 1.522 Mt of slag. In man-
ufacture 90% of manganese alloys are con-
sumed in steel production, leaving only a
small part of 10% for foundry and weld-
ing. EMM with a Mn-content of 0.324 Mt
goes into specialty steel, aluminium alloys,
and copper alloys, of which aluminium al-
loys can be recycled. EMD is used for batter-
ies, chemicals, fertilizers, and animal food,
representing also a share of 0.324 Mt of
manganese.
At the moment manganese consumption
through batteries is marginal. This might be
subject to change due to the implementa-
tion of electric mobility in the future. For
this purpose it was tried to make a first
rough estimate. Given that 2 million full
electric vehicles in Europe in 2020 are pre-
dicted (cf. Sect. 1) we calculated: 50% of these
FEV will be equipped with NMC-batteries
6
S. Ziemann et al.: Revue de Métallurgie
(LiNiMnCoO2) or LMO-batteries (LiMn2O4)
owing a manganese content in cathode ma-
terials of 1/3 or higher [10,22]. Taking into ac-
count a material requirement of 23.7 kg Mn
per 20 kWh battery needed for every FEV
([23], own calculations) this would result in
a manganese demand of 0.024 Mt from EV
batteries. That means, also on a global level,
the manganese requirement for batteries in
the future might be at least one order of mag-
nitude lower than for steel production.
Although scrap steel, which often in-
cludes manganese, is recycled in large
amounts, manganese metal is neither re-
covered in the steel, nor is it recovered as
metal at present (cf. Sect. 3.2). Aluminium-
manganese alloys used for beverage cans
are the sole manganese application that can
be recycled [24]. In addition there are re-
search activities to recover manganese from
slags [25]. Dissipative applications are fertil-
izers, animal food, colorants and pigments.
The model is still incomplete and the data
often have significant uncertainties. Never-
theless, the first preliminary results allow for
drawing some first conclusions.
3.4 Conclusion and outlook
The material flow model in its current state
accounts for a fraction of the whole metal cy-
cle and thus enables to some extent a better
understanding of extraction and consump-
tionofresourcesaswellasofreleasesinto
the environment.
At the moment manganese is handled
lavishly in its major applications since there
are no eective recycling processes for most
products. This means that practically no sec-
ondary metal can be used and that primary
metal is always needed for manufacturing
new products. Hence, there are virtually no
possibilities for saving primary manganese
resources at present. However, as global
steel production is expected to increase fur-
ther and the battery sector to gain more
importance in the next years, the critical-
ity of manganese may grow over the com-
ing decades. It will depend on the relative
price development of other technical inter-
esting materials like cobalt, if manganese
will possess a high attractiveness in battery
cell production. Current manganese use for
batteries is 2–3 orders of magnitude smaller
than for steel applications and might not
reach also in the future comparable dimen-
sions. Changes in global manganese de-
mand over the coming years will therefore
be largely determined by the development
of steel demand, while the consequences
of a supply disruption would likely hurt
the battery production significantly. Over
the longer term, however, manganese de-
mand for batteries has a potential to reach a
higher share in global manganese consump-
tion. The slag from steel recycling might be a
potentially large source of manganese. Even
if research approaches to recover manganese
from slags exist this is still in the devel-
opment stage at the moment. For a closer
examination of a possible manganese prob-
lem a deeper understanding of the respec-
tive global raw material cycle is needed.This
requires sucient and detailed data as well
as further dynamic modelling in the use sec-
tor being important to gain insight into the
probable future development.
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... While Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) might focus on technological innovations, such as autonomous vehicles and mood-adaptive cars, as well as economic-business advancements, there is a gap in addressing the well-being aspect comprehensively. The discourse on shared mobility, electric vehicles, and their environmental impacts [18,27], along with public preferences for alternative solutions such as bike-sharing [28], underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of how these advancements in mobility can affect individual and societal well-being. Thus, proposing a holistic framework to guide mobility's future vision ensures that technological innovations align with broader well-being objectives. ...
... Electric vehicles (EVs) are critical in the evolving landscape of mobility. While they offer a promising solution for reducing emissions, their environmental impact requires careful consideration of the entire life cycle, particularly regarding the materials used in EV batteries [27,30]. The promotion of EVs must be balanced with broader urban sustainability goals, necessitating a nuanced approach to mobility planning that addresses trade-offs and objectives [31]. ...
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Mobility, a vital part of daily life, significantly impacts human well-being. Understanding this relationship is crucial for shaping the future trajectory of mobility, a connection often overlooked in previous research. This study explores the complex relationship between mobility and well-being and proposes a holistic framework for mobility’s future, prioritizing individual and societal well-being. The motivation for this research stems from the growing need to balance technological advancements in transportation with the well-being of diverse populations, especially as the mobility landscape evolves with innovations like autonomous vehicles and intelligent mobility solutions. We employ bibliometric methods, analyzing 53,588 academic articles to identify key themes and research trends related to mobility and well-being. This study categorizes these articles into thematic clusters using the Louvain modularity maximization algorithm, which facilitates the formation of cohesive groups based on citation patterns. Our findings underline the significant impact of mobility on physical, mental, psychological, financial, and social well-being. The proposed framework features four pillars: vehicle, infrastructure and environment, mobility stakeholders, and policy. This framework underscores the importance of collaboration between institutional and individual actions in shaping a future mobility landscape that is technologically advanced, socially responsible, and conducive to an improved quality of life.
... ........ Illustration of the first Li-ion battery (LiCoO2/Li electrolyte/graphite)[35]. ...... A Ragone plot illustrating the specific energy and the power of different battery technologies[48]. ................................................................................................................ Cost of Li-ion battery packs in BEV [58]. ...
... A Ragone plot illustrating the specific energy and the power of different battery technologies[48]. ...
Thesis
Full-text available
The state-of-the-art rechargeable lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries are attracting increasing interest for a wide range of applications. The potential appeal of A2MnSiO4 (A = Li, Na) as positive electrode (cathode) materials ranges from small appliances (smartphones, laptops, headphones, etc.) to large systems such as sustainable transportation (electric vehicles, hybrid- and plug-in hybrid vehicles, etc.) and uninterruptible power supply. However, the poor electrochemical performance in the bulk phase due to high intrinsic charge transfer resistance and capacity fading during cycling has limited its large- scale commercial applications. In this dissertation, the electronic and ionic conductivity were mainly investigated using ab initio calculations such as density functional theory (DFT), Hubbard corrected DFT (DFT+U), and molecular dynamics simulations. Moreover, a semi-empirical model based on tight binding was employed to demonstrate the mechanism of bond formation and its impact on electron transport. The first part of the work focuses on the surface architecture of the Li2MnSiO4 structure was identified based on the predicted surface energies following the order of stability for low index facets: (210) > (001) > (010) > (100). The relatively low energy surface, Li2MnSiO4(001), predominates Wulff shapes and makes up almost 35.64% of surface area by covering the other facets and thus preferentially exposed to electrochemical kinetics by enlarging its electrochemically active surface area. The bulk insulator with a wide band gap (Eg = 3.42 eV at U = 3 eV) becomes an electronic conductor by inducing a narrow electronic band gap (Eg = 0.65 eV at U = 3 eV) at Li2MnSiO4 (001) surface because of robust electronic surface conductivity through Mn (3d) and O (2p) inter-orbital hybridizations. Surface diffusion in the (001) channel was observed to be unlimited and fast three-dimensional pathways with more than 12 orders of magnitude enhancements. These findings suggest that the capacity limitation and poor electrochemical performance that arise from limited electronic and ionic conductivity in the bulk could be remarkably improved on the surfaces of Li2MnSiO4 cathode material for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries. In the second part of the work, biaxial tensile (𝜀 = 2%, 4%) and compressive (𝜀 = − 2%, −4%) strain subjected to Na2MnSiO4 lattice, and the radial distances cut-offs of 1.65 Å and 2 Å were calculated, respectively, in the first and second nearest neighbor shell from the center. The Si-O and Mn-O bonds with the prominent probability density peaks validated the structural stability. The pristine (Eg = 2.35 eV) and the compressed (ε = −4%) structure behave as wide-band (Eg = 2.54 eV) semiconductors, but the biaxial tensile strain (ε = 4%) showed reduced bandgap (Eg = 2.24 eV) with the strong coupling of oxygen and manganese to form a p-d σ bond over the p-d π bond. The climbing image nudged elastic band analysis revealed that the Na+ - ion diffusivity increases by three orders of magnitude when the applied biaxial strain changes from compressive to tensile. These findings suggest that the rational design of biaxial tensile strain can significantly improve the ionic and electronic conductivity of Na2MnSiO4. In general, the computational analysis and design of novel silicate cathode materials investigated in this study are found to be promising in terms of optimizing electronic and ionic conductivity for the advanced electrochemical performance of next-generation rechargeable lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries.
... The Resource Nationalism Index [1] gauges a nation's tendency to assert control over the exploitation and trading of natural resources, especially essential raw commodities. The Country Risk Index [72] measures the risk of doing business or investing in a specific nation. The higher country risk might discourage investments and sabotage supply chains, resulting in shortages or unstable markets. ...
Chapter
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In recent years, many countries have announced their concerns regarding the supply risk for critical raw materials (CRMs). Identifying and evaluating these commodities is necessary due to their rising demand, driving technological advancement and decarbonisation initiatives. This work develops a conceptual framework for recognising potential CRMs in Azerbaijan based on various factors. The methodology incorporates a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach to capture dynamic evaluations over static indications. A list of potential critical and strategic raw materials is conducted based on Azerbaijan's proven mineral resources. Then a number of economic, environmental, sociopolitical, geopolitical, and technological impact factors are determined. These criteria serve as the foundation for the criticality assessment process. The study aims to shed light on the essentiality of raw resources in Azerbaijan and conduct the country's first-ever critical raw materials list. The outcomes will support strategic decisions on these resources’ long-term maintenance and use.
... Mineral raw materials are in every part of our daily lives, and some of them are crucial for the correct development of society. Thus, the concept of critical raw materials (CRM) considers the supply risk and economic importance for an industrial ecosystem's functioning and its goals in the mid-and long-term (Graedel et al. 2012;Ziemann et al. 2013). For instance, the current global trend toward a green energy transition requires a higher intensity of certain elements (Pommeret et al. 2022), particularly for electrical and battery systems for transportation (Riva Sanseverino and Luu 2022), while the capabilities of recycling or some regional agendas can also have an important relevance in that regard (Černý et al. 2021). ...
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A simple approach is proposed to study the main factors related to the mining activity’s impact on society, through a corporate social responsibility (CSR) qualitative analysis based on the type of raw materials extracted, either by mine site or firm. A CSR index is defined by 30 environmental and socioeconomic elements and, subsequently, it is weighted by three primary factors; the recycling rate, the transition to green energy, and geographical conditions. The proposed method is adaptable to any change in raw material needs over time and, depending on the analyzed country or region, is applicable to any type of mineral resource. The system can be used to drive engagement with the different stakeholders, add value to a project, and establish a CSR continuous improvement system.
... In the same line, several studies are related to the global value chain of lithium batteries (GVCLB). In some, this issue is fully addressed Moreno-Brieva and Marín, 2019); while others focus on the resources and the production of their chemical compoundsValero et al., 2018;Zhang et al., 2017), on the generation, characteristics and production of the technology of their rechargeable batteriesZiemann et al., 2013), or on their recycling stage(Asari and Sakai, 2013;Gaines, 2018;Mayyas et al., 2019;Zhang et al., 2017). Notwithstanding the foregoing, none addresses how the leading countries in the generation of technology of these batteries maintain their global positioning, although they run the rest of the countries in the world in various activities, such as in the electric car market(Vikström et al., 2013).For these reasons, the purpose of this research is to know the essence of the positioning of the leading countries and the existing geostrategic support among them in the technology generation of lithium rechargeable batteries (or lithium secondary batteries), through the creation and application of a new index -which solves the problems of the usual indicators that are complex and nonlinear-that determines the technological regime on which countries base their presence; the use of other identified indexes to know their positioning; and the analysis of the influence of the regimes in these economies and their conglomerates. ...
Thesis
According to the development of the electric power market, in which the use of cell phones, laptops and electric cars, among others, is based on lithium batteries. The objective of this doctoral thesis is to examine the evolution of technological generation and some international trade topics in the global value chain of lithium batteries, to provide new contributions to existing literature, using a quantitative approach of patent applications and various statistical methods. The results establish that the value chain of lithium batteries is not really global with respect to its technological generation, that the regimes and the position of technological innovation of the leading countries are related to the geostrategy, and that the international commercial and technological indicators must be more precise than existing ones, in the era of global value chains.
... Recent innovations in various technologies have changed the manufacturing cycle and the requirements for raw materials. Therefore, apart from assessing supply risk or criticality of material from a national or regional point of view, recently studies are also focused on criticality of raw material supply for specific technology sectors such as energy [5][6][7], transportation [8], ceramics [9][10], chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing [11], etc. All these technologies are dependent on a variety of raw materials, and scarcity of these materials will severely impact on their production and use. ...
... They both rely on a key parameter -the life span of vehicles or batteries -to convert the annual in-use stocks and sales to the final material demand. Only 12 papers used a static analysis and reported metal demand for one specific past year, including 2007 [71] , 2009 [72] , 2011 [46] , 2014 [16] , 2015 [58] , 2016 [ 63 , 73 ], 2017 [ 74 , 75 ]; or a time span of past years: 2001-2013 [76] , 2006-2015 [60] , 2000-2018 [62] . Five papers applied other approaches to forecast the future material requirement for transportation electrification but aimed to directly model the material demand rather than assuming a lifetime, such as linear regression [77][78][79] , and increase rate [ 79 , 80 ]. ...
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The clean energy transition plays an essential role in achieving climate mitigation targets. As for the transportation sector, battery and fuel cell electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as a key solution to reduce greenhouse gases from transportation emissions. However, the rapid uptake of EVs has triggered potential supply risks of critical metals (e.g., lithium, nickel, cobalt, platinum group metals (PGMs), etc.) used in the production of lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells. Material flow analysis (MFA) has been widely applied to assess the demand for critical metals used in transportation electrification on various spatiotemporal scales. This paper presents a quantitative review and analysis of 78 MFA research articles on the critical metal requirement of transportation electrification. We analyzed the characteristics of the selected studies regarding their geographical and temporal scopes, transportation sectors, EV categories, battery technologies, materials, and modeling approaches. Based on the global forecasts in those studies, we compared the annual and cumulative global requirements of the four metals that received the most attention: lithium, nickel, cobalt, and PGMs. Although major uncertainties exist, most studies indicate that the annual demand for these four metals will continue to increase and far exceed their production capacities in 2021. Global reserves of these metals may meet their cumulative demand in the short-term (2020–2030) and medium-term (2020–2050) but are insufficient for the long-term (2020–2100) needs. Then, we summarized the proposed policy implications in these studies. Finally, we discuss the main findings from the four aspects: environmental and social implications of deploying electric vehicles, whether or not to electrify heavy-duty vehicles, opportunities and challenges in recycling, and future research direction.
... Although lithium incurs only a small portion of the total cost compared with other raw materials used for battery manufacturing, there will be a serious pressure on lithium suppliers to cater to demand in the near future [12][13][14][15]. Thus, the recycling of spent lithium-ion batteries has significant potential to benefit our society both economically and environmentally as well as preserving raw materials [16][17][18][19][20]. ...
Chapter
The recycling of spent lithium-ion batteries has the potential to significantly benefit our society economically and environmentally as well as preserve raw materials. Although diverse process chains have been applied or are under development to recycle batteries, a common, critical issue for battery recycling is separating the metallic current collector from the composite film of the electrode. This chapter comprehensively reviews bio-inspired nanotechnology to design near-surface architecture on the interface between the current collector and the composite electrode film, including applying structural adhesives to develop easy-to-recycle lithium-ion batteries. As revealed in this chapter, the fundamental understanding of the interfacial adhesion and delamination mechanisms provides a scientific footing for the realization of next-generation easy-to-recycle electronics.
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Raw materials are the necessary building blocks for the functioning of the country's economy and industries. It is inevitable for countries to direct their economic policies towards sustainability within the scope of their green and digital transformation efforts. The fact that green and digital transformation are among the most driving forces in achieving sustainable development also reveals the criticality of the raw materials to be used in the technologies required for this transformation. The positive effects of raw materials come to the fore in many areas such as the use of carbon neutral and green technologies required for climate and energy targets, the design of sustainable cities, and healthy and quality life. However, it is necessary to discuss the dilemma created by the negative environmental effects of mining activities undertaken to extract the raw materials necessary to achieve sustainability goals. Therefore, in this study, the positive or negative effects of raw materials on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), sustainable performance criteria that can be used in the evaluation of raw materials, are examined with strategic planning tools. Policies, measures, and investments regarding the performance measures achieved in Turkey are investigated. At the end of the study, the strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities of some raw materials in terms of targets are evaluated. Additionally, through analysis of critical success factors, numerical inputs that can be used for researchers conducting data studies in this field are presented.
Article
To be able to better predict future demand for critical raw materials, to better negotiate trade agreements or to better stimulate the extraction of such raw materials, we investigate how economic indicators (raw material average annual price, EU GDP at purchasing power parity, cumulative EU inflation, and EU population) impact the EU internal demand for 11 raw materials in the period from 1994 to 2012. The results show that none of the critical raw materials has an identical trend in the development of internal EU demand with any economic indicator. There is a strong correlation between some of the factors studied and the internal EU demand for magnesite, tungsten, silicon (metal), chromium, and cobalt. The results also show that for most critical raw materials the correlation between the price of a critical raw material and its internal EU demand is lower than between other economic indicators and internal EU demand for certain critical raw material. This finding is consistent with economic theory indicating that the price is not a determinant of demand, but influences the quantity demanded. The demand curve shifts due to other factors and it can be observed in our findings on silicon (metal) element. The correlation between silicon (metal) demand and economic indicators such as cumulative EU inflation, the EU population and EU GDP are very high suggesting that this element is the most appropriate critical raw material to predict its internal EU demand. Using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, the research results show that correlation between EU internal demand for critical raw materials and its economic indicators is positively affected by the volatility of this demand but negatively affected by its average value during reference period. The results may also be important with regard to recycling activities and identifying investment needs to alleviate Europe's reliance on imports of raw materials.
Article
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The concept of a company, city, or region functioning as an anthrosphere, a living organism with metabolic processes, is now widely accepted among professionals within scientific, engineering, and materials management fields. While the traits of an anthroposphere are described throughout academia, until now there was no widely accepted methodology for applying these concepts. Practical Handbook of Material Flow Analysis establishes a rigid, transparent and useful methodology for investigating the material metabolism of anthropogenic systems. Using Material Flow Analysis (MFA), engineers and planners can determine the main sources, flows, stocks, and emissions of man-made and natural materials. By demonstrating the application of MFA, this book reveals how resources can be conserved and the environment protected within complex systems. The fourteen case studies presented exemplify the potential for MFA to contribute to sustainable materials management. Exercises throughout the book deepen comprehension and expertise. The authors have had success in applying MFA to various fields, and now promote the use of MFA in a uniform way so that future environmental engineers, resource managers, and urban planners have a common method in their toolboxes for solving resource-oriented problems.
Article
Developments in electric mobility are strongly focussed on lithium-ion batteries entailing a rising interest in lithium by science, industry, and politics. As several studies forecast a strong increase of demand, controversial statements are circulating about the element's future availability. This indicates that a more comprehensive understanding of the global lithium cycle is necessary. Therefore, a study was carried out to describe the global lithium flows by means of a material flow analysis. A static material flow model of lithium comprehending key processes and flows was developed based on data about production, manufacture, and use for the year 2007. The work provides the first global lithium model and shows how supply and demand of lithium as well as flows into the environment are connected on a global scale.Whilst the different data sets used are subject to some inaccuracies, a noticeable discrepancy between production and consumption could be identified, which needs further explanation. The stationary global lithium model developed allows both to explore the recycling possibilities for lithium products and their resulting material flows and to identify important influencing parameters along the lifecycle, which can be used to increase the resource efficiency of lithium. This, in turn, is crucial to improving the resource security for future technologies of such a strategic metal as lithium.
Article
The US Geological Survey building in Reston was specially designed for the agencies purposes and opened in 1973. Previously headquarters had been in Washington, D.C. The agency was established in 1879 after a report from the National Academy of Sciences called for a government agency to take inventory of lands acquired in the Louisiana Purchase and the Mexican-American War.
Article
The cumulative availability curve shows the quantities of a mineral commodity that can be recovered under current conditions from existing resources at various prices. The future availability of a mineral commodity depends on the shape of its cumulative availability curve (determined by geologic considerations, such as the nature and incidence of the available mineral deposits), the speed at which society moves up the curve (determined by future demand and the extent to which this demand is satisfied by recycling), and shifts in the curve (determined by cost-reducing technological change and other factors). While the shape of the curve for any given mineral commodity may or may not be known, it is knowable since the geologic processes responsible for the curve's shape took place many years ago. In contrast, the factors governing how fast society moves up the curve and how the curve shifts over time are not only unknown but also unknowable. Using lithium as an example, this article shows that knowledge about the shape of the cumulative availability curve can by itself provide useful insights for some mineral commodities regarding the potential future threat of shortages due to depletion. Despite the inherent uncertainties surrounding the future growth in lithium demand as well as the uncertainties regarding the future cost-reducing effects of new production technologies, the shape of the lithium cumulative availability curve indicates that depletion is not likely to pose a serious problem over the rest of this century and well beyond.
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