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Secular Trends in the Performance of Children and Adolescents (1980–2000)

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It is widely believed that the performance of children and adolescents on aerobic fitness tests is declining. To test this hypothesis, this meta-analysis compared the results of 55 reports of the performance of children and adolescents aged 6–19 years who have used the 20m shuttle run test (20mSRT). All data were collected in the period 1981–2000. Following corrections for methodological variation, the results of all studies were expressed using the common metric of running speed (km/h) at the last completed stage. Raw data were combined with pseudodata generated from reported means and standard deviations using Monte Carlo simulation. Where data were available on children and adolescents from the same country of the same age and sex, but tested at different times, linear regression was used to calculate rates of change. This was possible for 11 (mainly developed) countries, representing a total of 129 882 children and adolescents in 151 age × sex × country slices. There has been a significant decline in performance in the 11 countries where data were available, and in most age × sex groups, with a sample-weighted mean decline of 0.43% of mean values per year. The decline was most marked in older age groups and the rate of decline was similar for boys and girls. There has been a very rapid secular decline in the 20mSRT performance of children and adolescents over the last 20 years, at least in developed countries. The rate of decline is not related to the change in the country’s relative wealth, as quantified by per capita gross domestic product (GDP).
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... Primary trial outcome: children's CRF Children's CRF will be assessed using the validated 20 m multistage fitness test (shuttle run test). [34][35][36] This is an accepted pragmatic field-based measure of CRF, for use in public health, 37 with demonstrated validity 38 39 and reliablity. 40 41 Further, shuttle run scores are associated with a range of indicators of cardiometabolic health. ...
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... It was also calculated that children's fitness has declined by 0.4 percent every year over the last two decades (or 2.4 percent over a 6-year period). 12 According to this study, physically active youngsters had a substantially higher level of cardio respiratory fitness than inactive children. The similar conclusion was reached after observing a group of Spanish children. ...
... A recent systematic review analyzed the evolution of motor skills in children aged 6-18 years from 1972 to 2015, highlighted a progressive decline in aerobic fitness and muscle power between 1986 and 2010-2012, and a moderate development of muscle strength and speed in the same period [18]. Other studies associated the increasing BMI (Body Mass Index) to decline in physical fitness related to 20 m shuttle run test [19], standing long jump test, sit-and-reach test, 50 m sprint and aerobic fitness [20]. Low physical activity and higher levels of BMI were also associated with reduced motor performance more significant in boys than girls [21][22][23] and especially in the 13-14 years group [24]. ...
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