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Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change in the Southwest: Threatened, Endangered, and At-Risk Species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona

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AbstrAct Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex interactions and processes. Nevertheless, a simple flexible strategy is needed to help integrate climate change into management planning and actions. This assessment uses SAVS, an assessment tool based on ecological principals, to rank individual species of interest within the eastern portion of the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona, according to predicted climate change responses and associated population declines balanced with responses expected to incur resilience or population increases. Further, specific areas of vulnerability, research needs, and management implications are identified for each species in detailed species accounts. Based solely on predicted response to climate change, Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis) and desert tortoise (Gopherus morafkai) are the most vulnerable to population declines. Results also suggest that climate change will make management of some TER-S species more difficult. Several critical management areas are identified that can mitigate negative impacts to benefit multiple species, including fire and fuels, invasive species, natural and artificial waters, and landscape-scale planning. Management planning should be in place that will assist species impacted by extreme events such as prolonged drought, severe wildfires, and/or intense flooding. The assessment process was also used to identify areas where climate change may present opportunities, as opposed to challenges, for species management.
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... This species was expected at BMGR-W and was considered a high priority for monitoring (Villarreal et al. 2011) but had not been previously documented from the range. It is thought to be particularly susceptible to climate change at BMGR (Bagne & Finch 2012). Spadefoots spend much of their lives underground in dry habitats, emerging only briefly after saturating monsoon rains. ...
... We confirmed the continuing occurrence of this species in 2017 with one sighting of a live tortoise in the north part of the Copper Mountains, and some remains in the west Copper Mountains and in the Gila Mountains. This is the most vulnerable reptile to climate change on the BMGR (Bagne & Finch 2012). The federally-listed Mohave Desert Tortoise, Gopherus agassizii, has been reported on the BMGR-W (Petersen et al. 2017) but this is in error, a reference to out-of-date taxonomy. ...
... Since the split has not yet been widely recognized, we consider the species together here. U. rufopunctata (in the broad sense) is considered to be the second most vulnerable species to climate change on the BMGR (Bagne & Finch 2012), and is currently under review for federal listing. The Colorado Fringe-toed Lizard (U. notata) has been reported on the range (Petersen et al. 2017) but this is in error, a reference to out-of-date taxonomy. ...
Technical Report
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The Barry M. Goldwater Range–West (BMGR-W) includes 700,000 acres of Sonoran Desert near Yuma, Arizona. The Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan for the BMGR-W requires that baseline conditions for small mammals, reptiles, and amphibians be established so that natural resource managers may determine how best to allocate effort to protect natural resources. Little is known about the small mammals, reptiles, and amphibians of the BMGR-W. What is currently known about these animals comes from either short term surveys at small locations or species-specific monitoring range-wide. We conducted a four-year inventory from 2016 to 2019 to ensure that wildlife resources will be identified, protected, and managed in compliance with regulatory requirements for significant or sensitive species, including federal threatened and endangered species. The objectives of this project were: 1) to establish a repeatable monitoring methodology that will capture the diversity found in small mammals, reptiles, and amphibians on the BMGR-W, 2) develop distribution maps for those species, and 3) provide recommendations for monitoring efforts and natural resource stewardship to assist the military mission on the BMGR-W. We sampled for amphibians and reptiles using visual encounter surveys by foot and vehicle, using drift fences with pitfall and funnel traps, setting cover board arrays, and setting automated recording devices to record anuran calls. We sampled for small mammals by setting trapping grids of Sherman traps and Tomahawk traps. Here we document 24 species of small mammals and 40 species of amphibians and reptiles from the range, including several unexpected or special concern species.
... This species was expected at BMGR-W and was considered a high priority for monitoring (Villarreal et al. 2011) but had not been previously documented from the range. It is thought to be particularly susceptible to climate change at BMGR (Bagne & Finch 2012). Spadefoots spend much of their lives underground in dry habitats, emerging only briefly after saturating monsoon rains. ...
... We confirmed the continuing occurrence of this species with one sighting of a live tortoise in the north part of the Copper Mountains, and some remains in the west Copper Mountains and in the Gila Mountains. This is considered to be the reptile that is most vulnerable to climate change on the BMGR (Bagne & Finch 2012 ...
... The most recent phylogeny (Gottscho et al. 2017) follows the suggestion of Trépanier and Murphy (2001) in considering the Mohawks Dunes population to be an as yet unnamed species distinct from U. rufopunctata. This is considered to be the second most vulnerable species to climate change on the BMGR (Bagne & Finch 2012), and is currently under review for federal listing. The Colorado Fringe-toed Lizard (Uma notata) has been reported on the range (Petersen et al. 2017) but this is in error, likely a reference to out-of-date taxonomy. ...
Technical Report
The Barry M. Goldwater Range-West (BMGR-W) includes 283,280 ha of Sonoran Desert near Yuma, Arizona. The Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP) for the BMGR-W requires that baseline conditions for small mammals, reptiles, and amphibians be established so that natural resource managers may determine how best to allocate effort to protect natural resources. Little is known about the small mammals, reptiles, and amphibians of the BMGR-W. What is currently known about these animals comes from either short term surveys at small locations or species-specific monitoring range-wide. We are conducting an inventory to ensure that wildlife resources will be identified, protected, and managed in compliance with regulatory requirements for significant or sensitive species, including federal threatened and endangered species. The objectives of this project are: 1) to establish a repeatable baseline monitoring methodology that will capture the diversity found in small mammals, reptiles, and amphibians on the BMGR, 2) develop potential distribution maps for those species, and 3) provide recommendations for monitoring efforts and natural resource stewardship to assist the military mission on the BMGR. We surveyed for amphibians, reptiles, and small mammals by conducting 30,800 km of visual encounter surveys in all five general habitat types present on the range. Additionally, we sampled for small mammals by setting trapping grids of Sherman traps (11,391 trap-nights) and Tomahawk traps (1,092 trap-nights). We sampled for amphibians and reptiles by setting drift fences with box and pitfall traps for a total of 379 fence-nights. Here we document 23 species of small mammals and 40 species of amphibians and reptiles from the range, including several unexpected or special concern species. We conclude with plans and priorities for future work to improve the completeness of this inventory.
... The Barry M. Goldwater range was established in 1941 for military training and is used by the United States Air Force and Marine Corps for air-to-air and air-to-ground aircraft maneuvers, laser testing, and field training exercises (BMGR Fact Sheet, 2009 Annually the range receives three to nine inches of rain (BMGR Fact Sheet, 2009). Depending on the region of the range summer temperatures can vary from 100°F to 109°Fand winter temperatures varying from 40°F to 50°F, (Bagne and Finch, 2010;Western Regional Climate Center,2011). The Barry M. Goldwater Range is in an aridic soil moisture regime and a hyperthermic soil temperature regime, causing the soils to be primarily Aridisols (Soil Survey Staff, Natural Resource Conservation Service, 2011). ...
... The Aguila and Growler Mountains which serve as the eastern boundary of the San Cristobal Valley represent this type of mountain, but are not included in this study area. The range provides habitat for diverse flora and fauna, including several endangered and threatened species such as; Antilocapra americana sonoriensis (Sonoran pronghorn antelope), Glaucidium brasilianum cactorum (cactus ferruginous pygmy owl), Phrynoso mamcallii (flat-tailed horned lizard), and Leptonycteris curasoae (lesser long-nosed bat) (Bagne and Finch, 2010;BMGR Fact Sheet, 2009 ...
... To our knowledge, no systematic comparison of the results of different approaches to assessing vulnerability to climate change has been undertaken. Many agencies and local conservation groups have already incorporated results from these various assessments into climate change management reports and policies within the eastern United States (e.g., Young et al. 2009, Bagne and Finch 2010, Dubois et al. 2011, Schlesinger et al. 2011, Brinke and Jones 2012. Given that no 2 assessment approaches available to date use the same combination of variables, or frame their questions in the same way, it is possible that these approaches produce different results for the same species. ...
... Many climate change vulnerability assessments are now being used to identify and inform management actions for species and ecosystems (e.g., Young et al. 2009, Bagne and Finch 2010, Lin and Morefield 2011, Schlesinger et al. 2011, Brinke and Jones 2012. Lack of a common assessment, or a common evaluation technique or outcome, have led to the development of a variety of methodologies for calculating vulnerability. ...
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The need for wildlife climate change vulnerability and sensitivity assessments has increased over the past decade. Use of these assessments by wildlife and land managers has increased due to concern for potential effects of climate change on species and landscapes. Although many approaches exist for assessing sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change, little is known about the similarity of results between methods. We compared outputs of 3 widely available assessments for the western United States: the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index, the U.S. Forest Service System for Assessing the Vulnerability of Species, and the Climate Change Sensitivity Database. We performed a broad categorical comparison and examined correlations across rankings to compare assessment outputs. We found little agreement in species rankings between pairs of assessments. There is no apparent pattern within, or between, taxa or habitat associations that could explain this poor correlation. Disparities likely result from differences in question format, choice of data input, or how vulnerability or sensitivity is calculated. Consideration of vulnerability quantification is needed, particularly regarding species sensitivity and adaptive capacity, because of limited understanding of species and community responses to climate exposure. Our results indicate it is extremely important to be aware of the specific goal and the quality, quantity, and variety of data used in each individual assessment in order to adequately use these assessments as tools for management planning. With the increasing need to include climate change scenarios in management actions and decisions, we suggest that increased cooperation among assessment developers could greatly aid in eliminating this discrepancy. © 2014 The Wildlife Society
... prodServices/climatechange/ccvi.jsp), designed for both plant and animal species, was used in Nevada and Massachusetts (Galbraith and O'Leary 2011;Young and others 2011); and SAVS, a System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species to climate change (Bagne and others 2011), was used to assess terrestrial vertebrate species in New Mexico (Finch and others 2011;Friggens and others, in prep.) and Arizona (Bagne and Finch 2010;Coe and others, in prep.). On a broader scale, the Environmental Protection Agency has a scoring system that has been applied nationally to assess the combined impact of climate change and non-climate related vulnerabilities for threatened and endangered species (Galbraith and Price 2011;U.S. EPA 2009). ...
Technical Report
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Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change impacts on the native fauna and flora of grasslands, shrublands and deserts of the interior American West. Species' responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment properties, biotic interactions, and capacity to evolve and migrate. The volume is divided into eight chapters that cover the topics of carbon mitigation and adaptation. Current and likely responses of species and habitats to climate change are examined in relation to taxonomic group and ecoregion and with regard to other disturbances. The volume ends with a review of management decision support needs and tools for assessing vulnerability of natural resources and conserving and restoring ecosystems that are or may be impacted by climate change.
... Following the 2002 drought, a captive breeding pen for Sonoran pronghorn was initiated on the Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge (CPNWR) to facilitate recovery efforts (Otte 2006). Natural surface water in the region is limited (USFWS 2010, Bagne andFinch 2012); therefore, old livestock water tanks and building catchments were improved and developed into artificial water sources (drinkers) for pronghorn and desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni). Today, approximately 159 individuals exist in the U.S. population, and 2 separate populations in Sonora, Mexico contain approximately 220 total individuals. ...
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The Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis) is a subspecies of pronghorn found exclusively in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona (USA) and Mexico. Sonoran pronghorn persist at low densities and are geographically isolated from other pronghorn populations. Numbers have declined in recent decades, but the population has rebounded from a low of fewer than 50 animals in 2003 to an estimated 159 individuals in 2012; however, little is known about population demographics beyond abundance estimates. We developed a species identification test that uses mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) species-specific primers to distinguish between sympatric Sonoran pronghorn and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) using DNA extracted from fecal pellets. We accurately identified each species in 100% of the blood and tissue reference samples. We also evaluate the rate of DNA degradation in pronghorn fecal samples ranging from 1 day to 124 days old and document that mtDNA species identification success rates were 100% through day 14. Success rates dropped to 95% by day 21, 50% on day 60, and 10% by day 124. This new test will be a valuable tool for documenting the presence of Sonoran pronghorn across their current range and can also be used for other pronghorn populations. © 2014 The Wildlife Society.
... prodServices/climatechange/ccvi.jsp), designed for both plant and animal species, was used in Nevada and Massachusetts (Galbraith and O'Leary 2011;Young and others 2011); and SAVS, a System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species to climate change (Bagne and others 2011), was used to assess terrestrial vertebrate species in New Mexico (Finch and others 2011;Friggens and others, in prep.) and Arizona (Bagne and Finch 2010;Coe and others, in prep.). On a broader scale, the Environmental Protection Agency has a scoring system that has been applied nationally to assess the combined impact of climate change and non-climate related vulnerabilities for threatened and endangered species (Galbraith and Price 2011;U.S. EPA 2009). ...
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We examine the interactions between climate change and natural and anthropogenic disturbances in grassland, shrubland, and desert ecosystems of the Interior West. Disturbances such as fire, drought, grazing, urbanization, and energy development are predicted to have a heightened impact on the western United States under a changing climate. We identify key issues related to these predictions, and provide examples of research that the RMRS GSD Ecosystems Program is conducting to address many of these predictions, as well as identify future research needs.
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people fail to realize that real communication goes in both directions." Lee Iacocca spoke these wise words about the failings of business, but clearly there is a lesson here for management of natural resources as well. Scientists are doing research every day that improves our understanding of our valued resources. But work does not stop at simply conducting an experiment, but needs to include effective communication of results that are relevant to managers. Scientists listen closely to what managers have to say and design studies to address questions across the diverse array of issues that challenge management goals today. Helping managers to promote sustainability on the Nation's forests and grasslands has been an overarching goal of US Forest Service Research and Development from the agency's beginnings in 1905. Major advances in resource management have been made with the help of science, from increasing yields of commodities like timber and cattle to providing services such as camping and clean water. But what steps should be taken to protect the public's resources? Some traditional applications of science in management are the development of best management practices to balance resource utilization with ecological function and support for decisions made in environmental assessments. Jan Engert, RMRS Assistant Director for Science Application and Integration, notes, "An emerging challenge for land management today is climate change. Climate change in particular is full of complexity and uncertainty, which makes decision-making and planning more difficult. A scientific approach is a powerful way to help tease apart that complexity, reduce critical uncertainties, and pinpoint effective solutions."
Technical Report
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