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Black Swan Theory: Applications to energy market histories and technologies
Abstract
This article provides an overview of several key shifts in energy supply and demand within the analytical framework of Taleb's famed Black Swan Theory (BST). The BST illustrates the low probability and low predictability of highly impactful events. Through a detailed review of extant academic literature and government reports, our paper focuses on black swans in the form of historical disruptions in energy security and technological innovation (the latter of which has been a key contributor to the recent explosion in the rate of development of unconventional fossil fuel resources). The piece concludes by emphasizing the need to adopt a considerably more conservative approach to energy forecasts. Policy recommendations are provided and include the need for skepticism in long-term projections, avoiding picking specific technology winners, and the need for enhanced valuation systems for environmental externalities.
... Indeed the European Commission (EC) (2000) definition of risk assessment states that appraisal of exposure is determined by evaluating qualitatively or quantitatively the probability of exposure to a biological, chemical or physical agent that can cause an adverse event (Manning & Soon, 2013). Further, quantitative, semi-quantitative or qualitative risk assessment models for policy, finance or economics are often lacking in how they take account of the "entropy" of existing regimes and transition (Krupa & Jones, 2013). It has been suggested that this is the same in food supply chain risk assessment processes (Manning, 2013;Manning & Soon, 2013). ...
... Black swan theory (BST) was first explored by Taleb (Aven, 2013;Krupa & Jones, 2013) and has been applied to the energy sector (Krupa & Jones, 2013); finance (Bogle, 2008); and nuclear safety (Möller & Wikman-Svahn, 2011). As stated previously, a black swan is an unknown or unknowable unknown risk where its very existence is neither recognised, nor predicted/predictable by risk managers. ...
... Black swan theory (BST) was first explored by Taleb (Aven, 2013;Krupa & Jones, 2013) and has been applied to the energy sector (Krupa & Jones, 2013); finance (Bogle, 2008); and nuclear safety (Möller & Wikman-Svahn, 2011). As stated previously, a black swan is an unknown or unknowable unknown risk where its very existence is neither recognised, nor predicted/predictable by risk managers. ...
Background
As a result of internal or external shocks, food supply chains can transition between existing regimes of assembly and planned activity to situations that are unexpected or unknown. These events can occur without warning, causing stress, shift, even collapse, and impact on business/supply chain viability.
... Until now, the clearance of the market is performed according to the financial cost of the producers' bids. However, the importance of other factors such as reliability and environmental impact are taken into consideration in many recent studies [4,10,11,14]. There are various criteria that should be included in the supply decision process so that the clearance of the market corresponds to the socially best result [10]. ...
... Costs that result from financial cost and gas emissions should be minimized, therefore they must be incorporated in the objective function with a negative sign, whereas the rest that represent positive notions are given a positive sign. Therefore, the optimization problem of the ISO is: (11) Subject to any constraints he wants to impose on specific costs. ...
A serious problem in every complex decision making process is how to deal with uncertainty. In complex systems the uncertainty is usually addressed with the use of probabilistic models where information about the distribution of the uncertain parameters is available or derived. However, in many engineering problems such information is unknown. Evermore, quite often the decision is made once, rendering irrelevant the probabilistic framework. In this study a multicriteria methodology is used in order to model the clearance of the energy market. The proposed model deals with uncertainty as far as the desired energy policy and restrictions are concerned with use of interval analysis. This way, the robustness of the optimal solution for different energy policies, which is necessary in order to evaluate them, is studied, thus creating a decision support system for the market operator.
... Resilience is closely linked to high-impact low-probability (HILP) events (Braun et al., 2020;Cho et al., 2022;Fang and Zio, 2019;Janta et al., 2024;Mohanty et al., 2024;Pan and Shittu, 2025;Stanković et al., 2023;Zhou et al., 2020;Zou et al., 2024) that are sometimes also referred to as extreme events (Broska et al., 2020), disruptive events (Mentges et al., 2023), or black swan hazards (Krupa and Jones, 2013;Panteli et al., 2018). A resilience trapezoid is commonly employed to track the (energy) system's performance over time to visually represent the resilience of an (energy) system in case of such an HILP event (e.g. in Amini et al., 2023;Braun et al., 2020;Izadi et al., 2021;Janta et al., 2024;Jasiūnas et al., 2021;Jesse et al., 2019;Mohanty et al., 2024;Stanković et al., 2023). ...
Recent events, including the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and climate change impacts, have exposed the critical need to ensure energy security and resilience in energy systems. We review existing definitions and interrelations between energy security and resilience, conceptualising these terms in the context of energy system transformations. We introduce a classification of disturbances into shock events and slow burn processes to highlight key challenges to energy system resilience. Examples illustrate their distinct impacts on technical, economic, and environmental system performance over time. We compile relevant recourse options across resilience capacity levels and system planning horizons to address these challenges, emphasising actionable strategies for an increasingly integrated energy system. Finally, we propose policy recommendations to integrate shock events and slow burn processes into future energy system planning, enabling forward-looking decision-making and system design to analyse and mitigate potential disruptions.
... According to Zhao et al. (2011), precisely black swans are the reason for the strong volatility of share prices in the financial markets, and these black swans arise from factors in the economic situation in the country such as the level of inflation Estrada (2009) proves that the actual impact that black swans have on long-term performance is very strong, referring to large swings daily that have a strong longterm impact and that were initially unexpected but later turned out to be easily predictable. According to Krupa & Jones (2013) "black swans" are often caused by the illusory sense of control and understanding of a particular situation on the part of people. The retrospective predictability of these events is also based on this. ...
This paper aims to explore the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on the twenty-seven European Union (EU) member states, known as the EU-27. A vector autoregression (VAR) of quarterly data for the period 2020-2022 was employed to study the impact of the coronavirus and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on growth, unemployment and inflation in the EU-27. The results from the empirical analysis indicated that the war in Ukraine lowered growth and raised inflation and unemployment, while the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect growth, increased unemployment and decreased inflation in the EU-27. It may be concluded that the war in Ukraine shifted the EU aggregate supply curve to the left, whereas the coronavirus pandemic resulted in inflation-unemployment trade-off in the EU.
... For instance, the oil crisis in the 1973 when the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries imposed embargo on certain nations due to collective support of Yom Kippur in Israel. As a result of that, prices for crude oil has faced constant rise for 7 years afterwards [84]. ...
The objective of this thesis was to quantitatively examine the extent to which the low carbon energy transition affects the competitive status of the global energy company Equinor. According to the previous research, the age of hyper competitiveness and transition to alternative energy sources suggest that Equinor faces strong competitive pressures. These are posed by a combination of external market drivers and internal business processes. The effect of the energy transition on the competitive status of Equinor was analysed from four perspectives.
Firstly, competitiveness was analysed with the market concentration measure – the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) consisting of a sample which represented 30 oil and gas companies. Our study shows that in the global oil and gas market from 2018 to 2020 market concentration was low and competitiveness high.
Secondly, Competitive Profile Matrix (CPM) examined three possible strategies (Multiple expansion, retrenchment and stability strategies) of how companies can tackle the energy transition. Comparing Equinor with its competitors, our study shows that Equinor’s response in this response to the energy transition is slightly below average. Companies with the highest total revenues performed worse in tackling the energy transition.
Thirdly, an in-depth analysis of a retrenchment strategy was examined through the Reserves-Life Index (RLI). Our study shows that Equinor is one of the leading companies when it comes to retiring its oil and gas reserves. At the production pace as of in 2020, Equinor will extract its remaining proven oil and gas reserves within 7 years. This is in contrast to Saudi Aramco which has an RLI of 56 years.
Finally, assessment of Equinor’s strategic position and competitive status was evaluated through a quantified SWOT analysis based on internal core competencies and external market opportunities. Our study shows that Equinor is strong in transforming its business internally with an Internal Factors Evaluation (IFE) score of 3.5. This contrast with how the company responds to the external market opportunities and threats. Its External Factors Evaluation (EFE) score of 2.8 is below the average of its competitors. Our main conclusion is that the energy transition has had a marginally negative effect on Equinor’s competitiveness. Equinor has had a slightly negative CPM, a positive RLI, and a neutral SWOT and HHI. Furthermore, the renewable segment of Equinor’s portfolio represents only two percent of the company’s total revenues. Equinor also lacks access to key renewable energy sources like hydropower and biofuels.
... COVID-19 is a rare but significant event that was neither predictable nor explicable, making it an ideal prospect for a black swan event. Key strategies and policies in coping with black swan events encompass creating resilient systems that can adapt to the factoring of cost and adverse consequences while generating future projections (Krupa and Jones, 2013). Complex adaptive systems are what such systems are called. ...
Purpose
This paper aims to facilitate researchers, practitioners and policymakers in understanding and managing the impact of the black swan event – COVID-19 on work from home in the social science subject area through bibliometric analysis. For this purpose, the authors analyzed publications from the Scopus database.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the authors conducted bibliometric analysis based on two major techniques: performance analysis and science mapping. The authors applied VOSviewer and Biblioshiny to address the research questions of present study. The study explored the hot trend topics and summarized them with discussions and implications.
Findings
Based on the analysis of 500 publications, the authors present an overview of performance and science mapping from the perspective of different aspects such as publication output and authors. Also, authors visualized the text mining by co-word analysis forming nine clusters as well as mapping trend topics. The existing publications were divided into ten clusters according to different keyword analyses: Leadership, Mental health, Technology, Crisis Management, Gender, Challenges, well-being and Work-life balance.
Research limitations/implications
Sample from the Scopus database is not exhaustive, and the dataset may be skewed due to the adoption of the selection criteria. The authors’ concentration was on academic publications in English that excludes potentially intriguing and pioneering studies done in other languages. The study area was limited to social science only.
Practical implications
The paramount lesson is that the COVID-19 quandary is multifaceted, necessitating not simply adaptations to current strategies but also an understanding and analysis of advancements in the economy, commerce and society. According to the analysis presented above, to overcome the COVID-19 “black swan event”, managers must think ahead. The analysis gives leaders and decision-makers a range of useful information on work from home (WFH) difficulties in COVID-19, as well as initiatives and revisions that must be implemented at the economic, social and scientific aspects when dealing with such uncertainties. The findings also aid managers in forecasting the need for sophisticated technology, organizational agility and resilience to attain the desired direction of progress.
Originality/value
With a focus on addressing WFH during COVID-19 from social science perspective and to synthesize its future research directions systematically, the authors performed Bibliometric analysis both with VOSviewer and Biblioshiny, in order to enhance the overall analysis for higher accuracy and more reliable results that is unique value addition and contribution to the existing literature.
... The literature on the black swan theory provides insight into the impact of shocks on economic systems 4 . This theory has been applied to the energy market (Krupa & Jones, 2013), risk management (Aven, 2013), the stock market (Bekiros et al., 2017) and construction (Nafday, 2011). The black swan event theory has also been applied to real estate (Higgins, 2015(Higgins, , 2013(Higgins, , 2014, although the focus of these studies has been on real estate pricing and capital markets. ...
The COVID-19 pandemic led to the mass adoption of remote working and other office market dynamics. As firms continue to adapt to the changes caused by the pandemic through various work patterns, the potential implications for the office market are unclear. Using data from Knight Frank’s (Y)OUR SPACE (2020) survey, this paper employs probit and multinomial models to examine the relationship between COVID-19-related remote working and changes to firms’ office space strategies. The study confirms that the pandemic has significantly influenced firms’ medium-term office space use strategies, and the results show that firms’ perception of their employees’ work-from-home experience has influenced their strategy review. The results specifically show that a positive WFH experience increases the likelihood that firms will reduce their total space quantity, reduce their density of occupation, and negotiate shorter leases in the medium term. We further observe that the pandemic is likely to have weaker effects on space quality than on space quantity, implying that economic factors remain core priorities in future office space use strategies, while social and environmental factors may remain secondary. These insights extend the literature beyond the economic determinants of office space demand to other social factors.
... The COVID-19 has resulted in unprecedented measures to stop the spread of the virus, such as international and local travel restrictions, lockdowns, and quarantines that have caused immediate and long-term damage to a vast majority of industries, and businesses of different sizes. Some may refer to this crisis as a "black swan" event (Yarovaya, et al., 2020) given that it was hard to predict (Heinonen, 2013;Krupa & Jones, 2013) and has a huge economic impact (Castles, 2010), however, this concept is so complex to be studied (Taleb, 2007). ...
Since early this year, the world has been facing a hazardous new generation of coronavirus named COVID-19 which has rapidly spread to the extent that it has drowned the world into the pandemic condition. The spread of this pandemic has generated a strong contagion effect across markets around the globe. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the impact of COVID-19 for as many markets as possible. This paper aims to analyze the cosmetic retail market's behavior in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic using a combination of graphical statistics tools to observe the monthly growth of production and sales in cosmetic retail and toilet articles for the period from October 2019 to August 2020. The results assume that the COVID-19 can have a black swan effect on the cosmetic micro-market. These findings are remarkable for the cosmetic sector's investors and marketers to enhance their understanding of cosmetic retail market behavior during unpredictable events such as pandemics.
... First, this study is the first effort to use BST from the HCI lens. Drawing from economics, mathematics, psychology and evolutionary biology, BST is complex and interdisciplinary (Krupa and Jones, 2013). In this study, the COVID-19 pandemic has been compared to BST, a metaphor describing an event that is not only highly improbable but also has a major impact. ...
A public shaming frenzy has spread through social media (SM) following the instigation of lockdown policies as a way to counter the spread of COVID-19. On SM, individuals shun the idea of self-promotion and shame others who do not follow the COVID-19 guidelines. When it comes to the crime of not taking a pandemic seriously, perhaps the ultimate penalty is online shaming. The study proposes the black swan theory from the human-computer interaction lens and examines the toxic combination of online shaming and self-promotion in SM to discern whether pointing the finger of blame is a productive way of changing rule-breaking behaviour. A quantitative methodology is applied to survey data, acquired from 375 respondents. The findings reveal that the adverse effect of online shaming results in self-destructive behaviour. Change in behaviour of individuals shamed online is higher for females over males and is higher for adults over middle-aged and older-aged.
... Further, black swan theory (BST) explains that humans are prone to make convincing justifications that may look appropriate yet irrelevant, leading to disruptive events (Krupa & Jones, 2013). Similarly, in the retail industry, for example, many retailers tend to hold a different inventory level for future demand that is not constantly sound or optimal. ...
Novel coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) and resulting lockdowns have contributed to major retail operational disturbances around the globe, forcing retail organizations to manage their operations effectively. The impact can be measured as a black swan event (BSE). Therefore, to understand its impact on retail operations and enhance operational performance, the study attempts to evaluate retail operations and develop a decision‐making model for disruptive events in Morocco. The study develops a three‐phase evaluation approach. The approach involves fuzzy logic (to measure the current performance of retail operations), graph theory (to develop an exit strategy for retail operations based on different scenarios), and ANN and random forest‐based prediction model with K‐cross validation (to predict customer retention for retail operations). This methodology is preferred to develop a unique decision‐making model for BSE. From the analysis, the current retail performance index has been computed as “Average” level and the graph‐theoretic approach highlighted the critical attributes of retail operations. Further, the study identified triggering attributes for customer retention using machine learning‐based prediction models (MLBPM) and develops a contactless payment system for customers' safety and hygiene. The framework can be used on a periodic basis to help retail managers to improve their operational performance level for disruptive events.
... Meanwhile, some risk management studies have gathered potentially surprising events for the energy system and its transition with low probability and low predictability but high negative or positive impacts (Kirchner et al., 2016;Krupa and Jones, 2013). Such events with negative effects are called 'black swans', while risks with positive effects for the energy transitions are referred to as 'pink swans' (Kirchner et al., 2016). ...
... The social and economic disruption caused by the pandemic is destructive, as it has led to the deaths of millions of people around the world, causing a major impact on society, as BS theory states for its events [15]. Consumers in general expect smooth services without restrictions, and a BS situation may affect these expectations [47,48]. Pandemics are unmanageable due to their suddenness, as has been seen with COVID-19, which clearly relates to BS theory. ...
The NPS index is used in the hotel industry to measure customer loyalty and, by extension, customer satisfaction. Many hotel companies set their annual budget based on this index and include it, together with annual economic results, for evaluation when deciding on a potential management bonus. For managers in some companies, achieving a high NPS becomes nearly as important as achieving strong economic results. The purpose of this research is to deepen the study of the NPS index by analysing the existing relationship that the model has with customer satisfaction, focusing on the following main areas of a hotel: reception, cleanliness and room comfort, and gastronomy. To do so, this study uses fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). New evidence of value is offered based on the analysis of a sample of six hotels (4 and 5*) located in the Balearic Islands, Spain (Mallorca, Minorca, and Ibiza). In total, 557 surveys were completed in August 2021 and 571 surveys were completed in August 2020, and therefore both sample groups were impacted by a Black Swan (BS) event, the COVID-19 pandemic, in two different stages of its trajectory. The results suggest that in the study sample, the key factor in achieving a high NPS was (1) gastronomy in 2021 (after more than one year of the COVID-19 pandemic), and (2) cleanliness and room comfort in 2020 (at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic). These results offer insights for hotel managers, as well as for academics who can develop new lines of research on the subject.
... Management literature does not offer many options for dealing with black swan (Parameswar et al., 2021) or disruptive events. The policy and strategy options in dealing with black swan events include developing robust systems capable of responding to the situation, and factoring in costs and adverse outcomes when making projections about the future (Krupa and Jones, 2013). One way to build robust systems is to create permeable systems that need to co-exist and co-evolve with their environment (Anderson, 1999). ...
Purpose
Remote work (RW) literature is a megatrend in HRM literature, and the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of RW as a concept and an organisational practice. Given the large number of papers being published on remote work, there is a need for a critical review of the extant literature using bibliometric analysis. This paper examines the literature on remote working to identify the factors crucial for managing a remote workforce. This study uses the complex adaptive systems theory as a foundation to build a framework that organisations can use to manage their remote workforce, focusing on three outcomes: employee engagement, collaboration and organisational agility.
Design/methodology/approach
Bibliometric analysis was conducted on the research published in Scopus journal in the area of remote work, followed by critical literature analysis.
Findings
The bibliometric analysis identified five clusters that reflect five organisational factors which the management can align to achieve the desired outcomes of engagement, collaboration and agility: technology orientation, leadership, HRM practices, external processes and organisational culture. The present findings have important implications for managing the remote workforce.
Originality/value
The five factors were mapped to propose a conceptual model on engaging individual employees, fostering team collaboration and building organisational agility while working remotely. We also propose an application model for using technology to achieve the outcomes of engagement, collaboration and agility in the organisation. Practitioners could use this framework to focus on the factors that can create a conducive environment to improve work efficiency in a remote workforce.
... The literature on the black swan theory provides insight into the impact of shocks on economic systems 4 . This theory has been applied to the energy market (Krupa & Jones, 2013), risk management (Aven, 2013), the stock market (Bekiros et al., 2017) and construction (Nafday, 2011). The black swan event theory has also been applied to real estate (Higgins, 2015(Higgins, , 2013(Higgins, , 2014, although the focus of these studies has been on real estate pricing and capital markets. ...
... Typical driving forces for the heating sector are the future price of energy resources, new policies and regulations on regional, national or multinational level, increasing system complexity, technological innovation, implications of climate change and pace of urbanisation. Unpredictable events, so-called "black swans" (see Krupa and Jones, 2013;Rutter and Keirstead, 2012), can also be considered and envisioned within this module, to facilitate robustness testing of the solutions designed within the S module. ...
This study proposes a novel framework, modular participatory backcasting (mPB), for long-term planning in the heating sector. The mPB framework is based on participatory backcasting (PB) and integrates principles of modularity, participatory modelling, and transdisciplinarity. We discerned for mPB 13 modules that can be arranged according to the purpose and specifics of each planning process. The design of the mPB framework and its implementation are presented for the cases of participatory strategic planning processes to achieve sustainable heat provision by 2050 in a Ukrainian city (Bila Tserkva) and a Serbian city (Niš). The results show that mPB allows adaptability to local contexts and limitations through exclusion, augmentation, substitution, splitting and inverting properties of modularity; decreases the learning time for applying the framework in a novel context; increases the reproducibility and transparency of long-term energy planning processes; enables efficient integration of quantitative methods into the participatory process; and advances collaboration between aca-demia and society. The proposed framework is beneficial for advancement of local planning and policy-making practices by creating strategies with a wider support of stakeholders. It could also be useful for further research through cross-case analysis.
... Energy security, as security of supply [10,11], has been applied to conceptualise the complexity of energy in foreign and energy policy [12]. Problematically, conventional energy security analysis, including when looking at unexpected events, has primarily focused on a set-up of fossil fuel and nuclear energy technologies [13]. ...
We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) - or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities - broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue - above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.
... Trend projections are based on the assumption that the explanatory variables will impact the dependent factor in the future in the same way as in the past. Especially for long-term analyses, assumptions about the continuation of trends have to be used very carefully because new technology will enter the market and black swans could occur (see, e.g., [10,11]). The danger of oversimplification might increase if only quantitative factors are taken into consideration while ignoring, e.g., driving forces such as behavior patterns and if international developments that may impact, e.g., national environmental policies are ignored [12]. ...
A major goal concerning the energy transition in Germany is the reduction of energy usage. In Germany in 2011, private households consumed 2194 PJ and have been identified as a sector with high energy reduction potential. The energy demand of this sector is dependent on many linked quantitative and qualitative factors (e.g., number of persons and demographic structure, expenditures, cost of energy-saving measures, willingness to invest, and level of coordination in international climate policy). In our study, we introduce a multilevel cross-impact approach which allows for the definition and quantification of data for scenario analysis while taking the interdependences between different factors on the global, national and sectoral levels into account. This approach makes it possible to overcome limitations that conventional energy models are usually confronted with. By applying a trend analysis in combination with information on the interdependence of relevant factors on the global and national levels, consistent sectoral views of the private household's future are created.
... Thus, black swans, as objects for future-oriented analysis, are something that should be outside the radar of subjective scoping. Krupa and Jones (2013) suggest a 'black swan theory' that is based on following points. Firstly, black swans are perceived as "entirely unexpected outliers" that have "little or no precedents" (Krupa & Jones, 2013, p.287). ...
In the paper we analyse the notion of 'black swan' as popularised by Taleb (2007). We propose that in the context of the futures' imagination, a black swan can be defined as hybrid that integrates local knowledge with multiple temporal scales, combining past, present and future tenses. As empirical material, we analyse the short stories from a writing contest held by the Finnish Parliament's Committee for the Future. The material contains 132 short stories. The analysis gives intriguing insights into how Finnish people-from different locales, of different ages and with differing educational and professional backgrounds-imagine different futures.
... Many studies until now have addressed the energy supply criteria. Many aspects should be taken into account except for the financial cost of the producers (Krupa and Jones 2013;Migheli 2012). Among them the reliability (Soleymani et al. 2008) and the environmental impacts of the energy production (Stephen and Anders 2013; Krupa and Jones 2013) are considered very important. ...
The deregulation of energy markets has created a framework for policy making, still under evolution, which is much more complex than the previous one. As a consequence, new requirements need to be met, concerning both technical design and financial management. This framework renders the use of multicriteria techniques attractive. Here, the investments in suppliers, depending on the policy implemented, are formulated as an integer programming problem, which consists of different sub-problems according to the assumptions made and the market’s regulations. The equivalent relaxed problem is a mixed integer programming problem that can represent the clearance of the energy market by considering several criteria besides price and quantity. Nonlinearities are reformulated by inserting additional binary variables so that the solution algorithms are more effective and efficient in most realistic cases. The feasible solutions and the optimal solution that maximizes every time the market regulator’s gain are obtained, after imposing some thresholds on the criteria used to evaluate the different energy technologies, thus creating a decision support system for the regulator.
Knowledge management in organizations has received significant attention in recent years and corporate training is currently considered a strategically very important resource. This paper suggests the adoption of a tool to support experiential training, since in the current complex socio-economic context organizations must know how to adapt their corporate training to the sudden changes in the market and to the needs of their workers and employees. Through the revision of the experiential model proposed by Kolb and of the complexity curve, the paper aims to propose a suitable tool to support experiential training. The purpose is to create synergies between heterogeneous types of contexts, different styles of learning and appropriate inferences for problem solving. An epistemic model illustrates the most effective learning styles and paths in conditions of high complexity. The originality of this article is expressed in the systemic learning model suggested: the Managerial Learning Framework (MLF), which allows to associate learning styles to different levels of complexity of the managerial context. In addition, the theoretical and practical implications related to the selection of employees and recruitment process of managers in the current postmodern era are suggested from a corporate training perspective.
When the words "Energy" and "Arctic" occur together within the global context, in most of the cases, the ideology creates an image and ideas of large fossil fuel projects, oil and gas rigs, and ship tankers. Governments, institutions, businessmen, and other key stakeholders from the energy sector in the Arctic region face pressures that could be translated as green transition, low-carbon age, or data regarding the new oil. The green economy is a significant concept that refers to the the green transition of energy resources in the Arctic region. This particular chapter highlights numerous global trends, key driving forces and assumptions that have a direct impact on the future evolution of green transition in the Arctic region by the year 2030. The primary goal of this chapter was to create and draw potential future alternatives for the development of transition to green energy in the Arctic region by 2030. Hence, authors developed three green transition scenarios which do not aim to strictly project and forecast the future; instead, the aim is to identify possible alternatives of green transition evolution in the Arctic region by 2030. In addition to that, the authors developed a framework of key driving forces influencing green transition in the Arctic region, and introduced wild scenarios of green transition in the Arctic region.
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly strained online food delivery services (OFDS) globally. This has challenged OFDS businesses to redesign and deploy technologies to meet customer demand. The purpose of this article is to identify the optimal factors contributing to customer experience with OFDS services during a black swan event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We followed a four-step research design to identify the optimal factors for OFDS. First, we identified the major episodes in the OFDS process. Second, these episodes were evaluated by customers using the sequential incidence technique. Third, we used an orthogonal design to analyze the episodes at different levels based on customer preferences. Finally, we used the Taguchi approach to calculate the signal-to-noise ratios and identify the optimal factors and their preferred levels. We classify the optimal factors into customer-oriented and service-provider-oriented propositions. The option to select the delivery person and delivery conditions was found to be the most optimal customer-oriented attribute. We discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of the study and suggest major avenues for digital transformations in OFDS for better customer experience.
Underground infrastructure (UI) plays a great important role in the urbanization and modernization of megacities in the world. However, the intensive development of the UI during the past decades has posed great risks to the safety of city infrastructures under the impact of multi-hazards, especially with the condition of global climate change. In this paper, a general conceptualized framework to assess the resilience of UI in cities under multi-hazards impact is proposed. The urban tunnel system, e.g., metro tunnel, road tunnel etc., is selected as the typical underground infrastructure discussed with the emphasis both on the structural level in terms of mechanical behaviors and system level in terms of network efficiency. The hazards discussed in this paper include the natural hazards and human-related ones, with emphasis on earthquake, flood, and aggressive disturbances caused by human activities. After the general framework proposed for resilience of the structural and network behavior of the UI, two application examples are illustrated. The structural resilience of the shield tunnel under earthquake impact is analyzed by using the proposed resilience model, and the network resilience of the road tunnel system under the flood impact due to climate change is analyzed, respectively. The resilience enhancement by using the adaptive design strategy of real-time observational method is mathematically presented in this case. Some other practical engineering recovery measures are briefly discussed at the end of this application example. The findings in the application examples should be helpful to enhance the resilience-based design of the structural and network of tunnels from the component to the system level.
Rapidly growing numbers of empirical papers assessing the financial effects of COVID-19 pandemic triggered an urgent need for a study summarising the existing knowledge of contagion phenomenon. This paper provides a review of conceptual approaches to studying financial contagion at four levels of information transmission: (i) Catalyst of contagion; (ii) Media Attention; (iii) Spillover effect at financial markets; (iv) Macroeconomic fundamentals. We discuss the unique characteristics of COVID-19 crisis and demonstrate how this shock differs from previous crises and to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic can be considered a ‘black swan’ event. We also review the main concepts, definitions and methodologies that are frequently, but inconsistently, used in contagion literature to unveil the existing problems and ambiguities in this popular area of research. This paper will help researchers to conduct coherent and methodologically rigorous research on the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets during the pandemic and its aftermath.
The aim of this paper is to review and evaluate models used to assess the market penetration of energy technologies. While there are different models and tools, choosing the appropriate approach for a particular application is very challenging. In this paper, each model is reviewed and discussed extensively and a hierarchy diagram is developed to help choose a model. Market penetration models based on subjective estimation and market survey could be individual-dependent and not reliable for long-term forecasts. Cost estimation, diffusion, and econometric models offer more reliable results both for short- and long-term forecasts. Based on the review, a new combined model was developed and applied to a case study. The combined use of different market penetration models offers more accurate and robust results, as demonstrated in the case study.
This paper examines and compares financial market reaction and recovery of four broad classes of financial assets – equity indexes, precious metals, 10-year benchmark bonds and cryptocurrencies, to the COVID-19 pandemic. The data set comprises daily observations of close prices in the selected markets from 17-04-2018 to 20-06-2021. Using the Yang and Zhao (2020) and Koenker and Xiao (2004) quantile unit-root tests for return persistence, we find heterogeneity in reactions and recovery patterns not only across asset classes, but also within them. Specifically, we find strong potential for mean reversion in equity markets even at high levels of shocks. While gold offers limited mean reversion, platinum shows very strong resistance to the COVID. Government bonds show small declines in value to the COVID in addition to high persistence. Cryptocurrencies, as a group, turn out to be the riskiest in the long-term, with more than a 50% decline in value coupled with high degrees of persistence. Our results raise questions as to the safe haven characteristics of the newly-popular Bitcoin. Our findings are useful for policy makers and investors through a better understanding of differences in the potential for mean reversion provided by different asset classes.
COVID-19 has caused many significant impacts on various businesses in Indonesia. This pandemic was first announced by government on March 2020 and as the result, Indonesia Composite Index moved toward down trend. To investigate this matter, this result applied event study and non-parametric test (Wilcoxon Signed Test) on observed IHSG from December 2019 to March 2020. The result confirmed that indeed after announcement, IHSG significantly decreased and loss almost 50% from initial value in December 2019. This research also suggests that this event cannot consider as Black Swan event because IHSG moved gradually decrease since February 2020. This research also offers some contingency plan and risk management concept to overcome this pandemic crisis.
This paper examines and compares financial market reaction and recovery of four broad classes of financial assets-equity indexes, precious metals, 10-year benchmark bonds and cryptocurrencies, to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the Yang and Zhao (2020) quantile unit-root tests for return persistence, we find heterogeneity in reactions and recovery patterns not only across asset classes, but also within them. Specifically, we find strong potential for mean reversion in equity markets even at high levels of shocks. While gold offers limited mean reversion, platinum shows very strong resistance to the COVID-19. Government bonds show small declines in value to the COVID in addition to high persistence. Cryptocurrencies, as a group, turn out to be the riskiest in the long-term, with more than a 50% decline in value coupled with high degrees of persistence. Our results raise questions as to the safe haven characteristics of the newly-popular Bitcoin. Our findings are useful for policy makers and investors through a better understanding of differences in the potential for mean reversion provided by different asset classes.
As the largest energy consumer, it is urgent for China to implement demand side management (DSM). This requires the accurate predictions of long-run energy demand and its short-run dynamic mechanism. To this end, we extend the conventional partial adjustment model into the framework of quantile regression and label it as quantile partial adjustment (QPA). The QPA model is able to investigate heterogeneous effects of drivers on energy demand, as well as to capture its whole conditional distribution. We conduct an empirical study on China’s energy demand using annual data from 1990 to 2017. The empirical results show that there exists obvious heterogeneous effects, for instance, the inverse-U shaped adjustment speed. Moreover, we design three different scenarios to produce conditional density forecasts of energy demand for the next 12 years. We notice that bimodal curves or even multimodal curves emerge under three different scenarios. These findings imply that there are several possible intervals for long-run energy demand, which leaves enough space to formulate rational and sustainable energy policies in China. The further discussion at the provincial level obtains similar results and shows the obvious heterogeneity across provinces, which highlights the importance to take into account regional differences in energy DSM.
Public administration, today, in practice is projected, programmed and realized today, as a rule, as though it occurred in the conditions of high degree of definiteness. This article is devoted to research of uncertainties in public administration, in particular, the so-called “black swan” phenomenon in public administration has been investigated. Aim: the purpose of the article included: to define a concept of uncertainty of public administration, consequences of such uncertainties, to consider the concept and features of the “black swan” event in public administration and to consider the existing scientific interpretations of this concept. Methods: to achieve aims mentioned above, such methods as the method of analysis, synthesis, classification method, and others were used. Results: the article presents the author’s concept of uncertainty, defined place of certainty in the process of public administration and the classification of types of “black swan” events.
Mechanisms of global changes on energy markets are reviewed. The main mechanisms are decarbonization of energy recourses and valorization of energy products. The decarbonization covers modest increases of energy-efficiency in industries and households along with fast substitution of fossil energy resources for renewable ones. This evolves despite availability of energy resources and fluctuating real prices of fossil energy. The valorization evolves when the higher costs of energy resources are outweighed by even higher value of energy products as perceived and purchased by customers. The valorization on energy markets is expressed as electrification, entry of variable renewable energy technologies and distributed energy systems for local energy production and consumption. Regarding these mechanisms on energy markets there is reason for optimism about progress toward sustainable development.
At any particular moment, the energy security of an energy system is at risk from events, both external and internal, that can affect its operation. By analyzing these risks, the state of the system’s energy security can be determined. If the method is generic, it can be applied to any energy system and the entities that support its operation. Despite the potential benefits of such a method, a review of the literature shows that existing methods of analysis focus on, for example, limited parts of the system or specific types of energy.
To address this shortcoming, this paper presents a method for analyzing the risks to the energy security of any entity in an energy system. The method, derived from work at the National Institute for Statistics and Technology (NIST), determines the risks to an entity using the well-known properties of events (rate-of-occurrence and expected stress) and entities (flows, time-to-recover, and stress-tolerance). The paper demonstrates how the method can be applied using both qualitative and quantitative data to measure, analyze, and potentially improve a system’s energy security. Several examples are included.
This paper examines the cost structure of fabricating light water reactor (LWR) fuel with low-enriched uranium (LEU, with less than 5% enrichment). The LWR–LEU fuel industry is decades old, and (except for the high entry cost of designing and licensing a fuel fabrication facility and its fuel), labor and additional fabrication lines can be added at Nth-of-a-Kind cost to the maximum capacity allowed by a site license. The industry appears to be competitive: nuclear fuel fabrication capacity is assured with many competitors and reasonable prices. However, nuclear fuel assurance has become an important issue for nations now to considering new nuclear power plants. To provide this assurance many proposals equate “nuclear fuel banks” (which would require fuel for specific reactors) with “LEU banks” (where LEU could be blended into nuclear fuel with the proper enrichment) with local fuel fabrication. The policy issues (which are presented, but not answered in this paper) become (1) whether the construction of new nuclear fuel fabrication facilities in new nuclear power nations could lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and (2) whether nuclear fuel quality can be guaranteed under current industry arrangements, given that fuel failure at one reactor can lead to forced shutdowns at many others.
Directional drilling and hydraulic-fracturing technologies are dramatically increasing natural-gas extraction. In aquifers overlying the Marcellus and Utica shale formations of northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York, we document systematic evidence for methane contamination of drinking water associated with shale-gas extraction. In active gas-extraction areas (one or more gas wells within 1 km), average and maximum methane concentrations in drinking-water wells increased with proximity to the nearest gas well and were 19.2 and 64 mg CH(4) L(-1) (n = 26), a potential explosion hazard; in contrast, dissolved methane samples in neighboring nonextraction sites (no gas wells within 1 km) within similar geologic formations and hydrogeologic regimes averaged only 1.1 mg L(-1) (P < 0.05; n = 34). Average δ(13)C-CH(4) values of dissolved methane in shallow groundwater were significantly less negative for active than for nonactive sites (-37 ± 7‰ and -54 ± 11‰, respectively; P < 0.0001). These δ(13)C-CH(4) data, coupled with the ratios of methane-to-higher-chain hydrocarbons, and δ(2)H-CH(4) values, are consistent with deeper thermogenic methane sources such as the Marcellus and Utica shales at the active sites and matched gas geochemistry from gas wells nearby. In contrast, lower-concentration samples from shallow groundwater at nonactive sites had isotopic signatures reflecting a more biogenic or mixed biogenic/thermogenic methane source. We found no evidence for contamination of drinking-water samples with deep saline brines or fracturing fluids. We conclude that greater stewardship, data, and-possibly-regulation are needed to ensure the sustainable future of shale-gas extraction and to improve public confidence in its use.
Recent theory has predicted that if competing technologies operate under dynamic increasing returns, one, possibly inferior, technology will dominate the market. The history of nuclear power technology is used to illustrate these results. Light water is considered inferior to other technologies, yet it dominates the market for power reactors. This is largely due to the early adoption and heavy development by the U.S. Navy of light water for submarine propulsion. When a market for civilian power emerged, light water had a large head start, and by the time other technologies were ready to enter the market, light water was entrenched.
Domestic oil output in the US is the highest in 8 yr. The US has reversed a two-decade-long decline in energy independence, increasing the proportion of demand met from domestic sources over the last 6 yr to an estimated 81% through the first 10 mo of 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the DOE. That would be the highest level since 1992. The transformation, which could see the country become the world's top energy producer by 2020, has implications for the economy and national security - boosting household incomes, jobs, and government revenue; cutting the trade deficit; enhancing manufacturers' competitiveness; and allowing greater flexibility in dealing with unrest in the Middle East. However, the expansion in oil and natural gas production has its downside. According to environmentalists, hydraulic fracturing or fracking is tainting drinking water. The drop in natural gas prices is also making the use of alternative energy sources, e.g., solar, wind, and nuclear power less attractive, threatening to link the US' future even more to hydrocarbons to run the world's largest economy.
China has a population of 1.3 billion people which puts strain on her natural resources. This volume, by one of the leading scholars on the earth's biosphere, is the result of a lifetime of study, and provides the fullest account yet of the environmental challenges that China faces. The author examines China's energy resources, their uses, impacts and prospects, from the 1970s oil crisis to the present day, before analysing the key question of how China can best produce enough food to feed its enormous population.
Concerns about the impact of hydrocarbon use on climate and global warming are significantly growing. Furthermore, we are all well aware that security of supply is increasingly an issue. In this context, it is now principally recognised that nuclear energy has to be back on the agenda. All in all, the prospects for the nuclear power industry and thus for the uranium activities is very positive for the coming years. The changes that have taken place in the international uranium market during the past several years are remarkable. Since 2002, the uranium prices have increased more than tenfold. The spot market price of uranium began an increase from about USD 9/lb U3O8 in mid 2001 following a fire at the Olympic Dam mill (Australia) in October 2001 and was propelled in subsequent years by a series of interrupting events, such as the mine shaft flooding at the McArthur River mine (Canada) in April 2003, the threat of the early shutdown of the Rossing mine (Namibia) and the Ranger mine (Australia) in 2003, the decision of Techsnabexport (Tenex, Russia) in October 2003 to terminate sales of UF6 to the US trading company Globe Nuclear Services and Supply GNSS Ltd. (GNSS), and finally the complete flooding at the developing Cigar Lake mine (Canada) in October 2006. With the emergence of hedge funds and investors, that began in late 2004, increased uranium demand and upward pressure on market prices were further stimulated. What about the recent events and trends in the uranium industry? Are the uranium producers and the utilities well prepared to meet all the challenges associated with developments in the uranium business? And what about the risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect the developments in the uranium industry and uranium markets?.
Although high gas flow rates from shales are a relatively recent phenomenon, the knowledge bases of shale-specific well completions, fracturing and shale well operations have actually been growing for more than three decades and shale gas production reaches back almost one hundred ninety years. During the last decade of gas shale development, projected recovery of shale gas-in-place has increased from about 2% to estimates of about 50%; mainly through the development and adaptation of technologies to fit shale gas developments. Adapting technologies, including multi-stage fracturing of horizontal wells, slickwater fluids with minimum viscosity and simultaneous fracturing, have evolved to increase formation-face contact of the fracture system into the range of 9.2 million m 2 (100 million ft 2) in a very localized area of the reservoir by opening natural fractures. These technologies have made possible development of enormous gas reserves that were completely unavailable only a few years ago. Current and next generation technologies promise even more energy availability with advances in hybrid fracs, fracture complexity, fracture flow stability and methods of re-using water used in fracturing. This work surveyed over 350 shale completion, fracturing and operations publications, linking geosciences and engineering information together to relay learnings that will identify both intriguing information on selective opening and stabilizing of micro-fracture systems within the shales and new fields of endeavor needed to achieve the next level of shale development advancement.
Hydraulic fracturing is a technology used to extract natural gas from shale rock formations found deep beneath the earth. It raises many public health and environmental issues of concern to municipalities and planners, both urban and rural. These issues range from potential water contamination and air pollution to noise, dust, truck traffic, and even minor earthquakes. This article identifies regulatory options that municipalities and planners may consider if hydraulic fracturing is a possibility in their community. The options range from outright bans to regulating "where" and "how" hydraulic fracturing may be carried out in the community. Such municipal regulations frequently provoke opposition from gas developers, some landowners, and state legislatures that want to promote energy development. To provide examples of how such conflicts play out in practice, this article will also highlight the responses of courts and legislatures to municipal regulations in six states.
Scitation is the online home of leading journals and conference proceedings from AIP Publishing and AIP Member Societies
Scitation is the online home of leading journals and conference proceedings from AIP Publishing and AIP Member Societies
When it comes to future reliable oil supplies, Canada's oil sands will likely account for a greater share of U.S. oil imports. Oil sands account for about 46% of Canada's total oil production and oil sands production is increasing as conventional oil production declines. Since 2004, when a substantial portion of Canada's oil sands were deemed economic, Canada, with about 175 billion barrels of proved oil sands reserves, has ranked second behind Saudi Arabia in oil reserves. Canadian crude oil exports were about 1.82 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2006, of which 1.8 mbd or 99% went to the United States. Canadian crude oil accounts for about 18% of U.S. net imports and 12% of all U.S. crude oil supply. Oil sands, a mixture of sand, bitumen (a heavy crude that does not flow naturally), and water, can be mined or the oil can be extracted in-situ using thermal recovery techniques. Typically, oil sands contain about 75% inorganic matter, 10% bitumen, 10% silt and clay, and 5% water. Oil sand is sold in two forms: (1) as a raw bitumen that must be blended with a diluent for transport, and (2) as a synthetic crude oil (SCO) after being upgraded to constitute a light crude. Bitumen is a thick tar-like substance that must be upgraded by adding hydrogen or removing some of the carbon. Exploitation of oil sands in Canada began in 1967, after decades of research and development that began in the early 1900s. The Alberta Research Council (ARC), established by the provincial government in 1921, supported early research on separating bitumen from the sand and other materials. Demonstration projects continued through the 1940s and 1950s. The Great Canadian Oil Sands company, established by U.S.-based Sunoco, later renamed Suncor, began commercial production in 1967 at 12,000 barrels per day. In the United States, a number of obstacles, including the remote and difficult topography, scattered deposits, and lack of water, have resulted in an uneconomic oil sands resource base.
This paper considers the role of design, as the emergent arrangement of concrete details that embodies a new idea, in mediating between innovations and established institutional fields as entrepreneurs attempt to introduce change. Analysis of Thomas Edison's system of electric lighting offers insights into how the grounded details of an innovation's design shape its acceptance and ultimate impact. The notion of robust design is introduced to explain how Edison's design strategy enabled his organization to gain acceptance for an innovation that would ultimately displace the existing institutions of the gas industry. By examining the principles through which design allows entrepreneurs to exploit the established institutions while simultaneously retaining the flexibility to displace them, this analysis highlights the value of robust design strategies in innovation efforts, including the phonograph, the online service provider, and the digital video recorder.
Renewable energy remains a contested topic in South Africa. This paper argues that South Africa can build on the momentum surrounding its introduction of a feed-in tariff by enacting policies that may, if given adequate funding and political effort, allow the country to be a world leader in renewable energy. Given a variety of renewable energy policy options for moving forward, a majority of stakeholders consulted in this study strongly prefer the development of a renewable energy manufacturing cluster, in which government develops coordinated policy mechanisms that attract renewable energy manufacturers, over three other policies suggested by the authors. Interviews with key informants that play critical roles in this decision-making process suggest that there are reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about the country's renewable energy future while cognizant of the challenges that must still be overcome. Opportunities for a low carbon renewable energy transition in South Africa include the prevalence of broad stakeholder consultation, facilitated by civil society, and an innovative policy development context. Significant impediments also exist, however, and include pervasive social issues such as poverty and political inertia, along with the ongoing difficulties facing renewable energy technologies in reaching grid parity with inexpensive and abundant South African coal.
tion of the Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) 1 to their perceived friends and adversaries. This study seeks to examine the performance of OAPEC as an alliance during the oil embargo. In an attempt to evaluate the performance of OAPEC as an alliance, several factors are considered whose presence or absence determines either the formation, maintenance and potency, or the dissolution of an alliance (Liska, 1968; Ahrari, 1976). On the basis of this analysis, some conclusions are drawn concerning the potential behavior of the members of OAPEC with regard to future embargoes. Eight variables are used in this evaluation of the performance of OAPEC. This paper stresses the utility of these variables as they contribute to the understanding of the alliance. 1. External Environment: A favorable environment facilitates the formation of an alliance, either by minimizing the retaliatory threats from adversaries (or potential adversaries), or by articulating the necessity of cooperation among the potential participants until the retaliatory threats no longer deter the states that would form an alliance. 2. Conflict: In this situation, members with similar (actual or perceived) interests establish group boundaries to differentiate between in-group and out-group members. In-group members emphasize the principle of cooperation, either through informal cooperative arrangements such as periodic consultations, or formal cooperative arrangements such as the forming of an alliance. The presence of conflict between two parties is catalytic in nature. This is because conflict tends to intensify the search for common ground among the members of one group (or alliance) as they strive to promote their mutual interests. Furthermore, once allies and adversaries (real, potential, or perceived) are identified, the presence of this phenomenon tends to minimize the in-group conflict by emphasizing the rewards associated with mutual cooperation (Coser, 1956). 3. Congruence of Interests: This is an essential ingredient for the formation of a collective. A distinction between the congruence (or mutuality)of economic and the congruence of political interests will be made in this study. It will be noted that, rhetoric aside, congruence of economic interests in most cases outweighs political interests.
One of the outstanding reasons for the active development of controlled fusion nuclear reactors as a source of electric power, aside from economic advantages, is that they are extremely attractive from an environmental standpoint. The basic principles and some of the most pressing problems are presented in this article. Among the problems considered are plasma confinement, heating, fuel injection, and exhaust collection.
Benjamin K. Sovacool is currently a Research Fellow in the Energy Governance Program at the Centre on Asia and Globalization, part of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. He is also an Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University in Blacksburg, Virginia, where he has taught for the Government and International Affairs Program and the Department of History. He has worked closely with the U.S. National Science Foundation's Electric Power Networks Efficiency and Security Program, Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and U.S. Department of Energy's Climate Change Technology Program. Portions of this article are based on a forthcoming book entitled The Dirty Energy Dilemma: What's Blocking Clean Power in the United States (to be published by Praeger). He can be reached at bsovacool@nus.edu.sg.
In 2003, China's energy consumption amounted to 1678 million tonnes coal equivalent (MtCE), making China the world's second largest consumer behind only the United States. China is now also one of the largest oil importers in the world. With an economy that is expected to maintain a rate of growth of 7–8% for decades, China's role in the world energy market becomes increasingly influential. This makes it important to predict China's future demand for energy. The objective of this paper is to apply the Bayesian vector autoregressive methodology to forecast China's energy consumption and to discuss potential implications. The results of this paper suggest that total energy consumption should increase to 2173 MtCE in 2010, an annual growth rate of 3.8%, which is slightly slower than the average rate in the past decade. The slower growth reflects expected slower economic growth and a decline in energy consumption due to structural changes in the Chinese economy.
This paper provides compelling evidence that large-scale market failures and barriers prevent consumers in the United States from obtaining energy services at least cost. Assessments of numerous energy policies and programs suggest that public interventions can overcome many of these market obstacles. By articulating these barriers and reviewing the literature on ways of addressing them, this paper provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios that define the “Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future,” a study conducted by five National Laboratories. These scenarios are described in other papers published in this special issue of Energy Policy.
Jim Harding is an Olympia, Washington-based consultant on energy and environmental issues. He was recently Director of External Affairs and Director of Power Planning and Forecasting for Seattle City Light. He also served as an expert panel member earlier this year for a Keystone Center dialogue on the future worldwide prospects, costs, and challenges of a nuclear revival. He has also served on panels of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S. Department of Energy, and Office of Technology Assessment. He is the author of four books on energy and nuclear issues. This assessment was suggested and commissioned by Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.
Adam Brandt's recent article, "Variability and uncertainty in life cycle assessment models for greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian oil sands production," (web publication date 14 Dec 2011), contains a serious analytic error that invalidates its conclusions - specifically, the recommendation for using a crude inappropriate model to generate industry average GHG emissions values.
Because of interest in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation fuels production, a number of recent life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have calculated GHG emissions from oil sands extraction, upgrading, and refining pathways. The results from these studies vary considerably. This paper reviews factors affecting energy consumption and GHG emissions from oil sands extraction. It then uses publicly available data to analyze the assumptions made in the LCA models to better understand the causes of variability in emissions estimates. It is found that the variation in oil sands GHG estimates is due to a variety of causes. In approximate order of importance, these are scope of modeling and choice of projects analyzed (e.g., specific projects vs industry averages); differences in assumed energy intensities of extraction and upgrading; differences in the fuel mix assumptions; treatment of secondary noncombustion emissions sources, such as venting, flaring, and fugitive emissions; and treatment of ecological emissions sources, such as land-use change-associated emissions. The GHGenius model is recommended as the LCA model that is most congruent with reported industry average data. GHGenius also has the most comprehensive system boundaries. Last, remaining uncertainties and future research needs are discussed.
Economic interdependence complicates domestic policymaking by interposing the decisions of foreigners in the loop that links policy instrument settings to economic outcomes. Nowhere was this vulnerability to external decisions demonstrated more forcefully than by the energy supply shocks of 1973 and 1979. The oil shocks posed challenges that offer unusual insight into the way nations choose policies: their severity forced a policy response; their unpredictable timing and (at least in 1973) unprecedented nature ruled out conventional formulas and brought to the fore explicit policy trade-offs. This article seeks to explain how policymakers in the world's two major economies responded to these external shocks. The analysis successively employs three vantage points in tracing the sources of domestic adjustment policies. It focuses specifically on the extent to which policies accommodated or extinguished each shock's inflationary impulses and on the coherence and consistency with which the executive in each government formulated and pursued particular policy goals. A comparison of these four cases illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of increasingly detailed theoretical frameworks for explaining policy choice. Although the research does not contradict the depiction of the United States and Japan in terms of state strength, it does underscore the importance of looking beyond formal institutional arrangements to consider how elite policy preferences, ambitions, and capacities can define the way constraints influence policy.
Like two gigantic waves, the oil shocks crested over the advanced industrial world during the 1970s. The relatively stable postwar petroleum regime, managed by the large oil firms and protected by American diplomatic and military strength, collapsed. In seven years crude oil prices, adjusted for inflation, increased more than 500 percent. A multitude of national security, economic, and political challenges confronted the advanced industrial states. But unlike war, where the threat is observable and lines of conflict quickly become apparent, the oil shocks cast up problems that were more insidious—problems of energy security, economic adjustment, and industrial competitiveness. These international dilemmas could be defined in various ways, and a host of policy responses could be brought to bear upon them.
Oil shale is a sedimentary rock that contains kerogen, a fossil organic material. Kerogen can be heated to produce oil and gas (retorted). This has traditionally been a CO2-intensive process. In this paper, the Shell in situ conversion process (ICP), which is a novel method of retorting oil shale in place, is analyzed. The ICP utilizes electricity to heat the underground shale over a period of 2 years. Hydrocarbons are produced using conventional oil production techniques, leaving shale oil coke within the formation. The energy inputs and outputs from the ICP, as applied to oil shales of the Green River formation, are modeled. Using these energy inputs, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the ICP are calculated and are compared to emissions from conventional petroleum. Energy outputs (as refined liquid fuel) are 1.2-1.6 times greater than the total primary energy inputs to the process. In the absence of capturing CO2 generated from electricity produced to fuel the process, well-to-pump GHG emissions are in the range of 30.6-37.1 grams of carbon equivalent per megajoule of liquid fuel produced. These full-fuel-cycle emissions are 21%-47% larger than those from conventionally produced petroleum-based fuels.
The scientific feasibility of producing electrical power from a thermonuclear reaction in a magnetically confined plasma has yet to be demonstrated. Until it is demonstrated, the acceptability of fusion in social, economic, and environmental terms cannot be demonstrated either. This paper describes and examines the criteria currently advanced for the assessment of the scientific feasibility of the European fusion programme, and concludes that they may not be adequate to the task. Decisionmaking in such an environment is fraught with risk.
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