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A recent highly cited paper from this journal develops a model predicting maximum sustainable yield ( $MSY$ MSY ) of a fishery using the historical maximum catch ( $MaxCatch$ MaxCatch ). The model is parameterized with a small sample of fisheries from the United States, and is subsequently applied globally to estimate the benefits of fishery recovery. That empirical relationship has been adopted for many subsequent high-profile analyses. Unfortunately, the analysis suffers from two important oversights: (1) because the model is non-linear, it suffers from “retransformation bias” and therefore the results significantly understate $MSY$ MSY and (2) the analysis is parameterized from of a very limited data set and so generalizability of the fitted empirical relationship between $MSY$ MSY and $MaxCatch$ MaxCatch to global fisheries is questionable. Here, we rectify both oversights and provide an updated estimate of the relationship between $MSY$ MSY and $MaxCatch$ MaxCatch .
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... However, this method also introduces the possibility of retransformation bias. To compensate for this bias we apply the so-called smearing correction (37,38) to inferred length, engine powers and tonnages. The correction for length is minimal (0.4%) because the residuals of the predicted lengths are relatively small. ...
... Furthermore, despite management and policy actions taken by coastal states, pressures on fisheries are increasing [23]. In 2000 alone, overfishing resulted in potential catch losses that amounted to 7-36% of actual landed tonnage that year [6], although a subsequent reestimation showed that this range was actually low [24]. Analysis of catch and primary production data also showed an increasing trend of ecosystem overfishing (i. ...
... Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is calculated based on the maximum reported catch [metric tons] for each species using the following equation[30]: ...
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