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Removing biases in forecasts of fishery status
Abstract and Figures
A recent highly cited paper from this journal develops a model predicting maximum sustainable yield ( $MSY$ MSY ) of a fishery using the historical maximum catch ( $MaxCatch$ MaxCatch ). The model is parameterized with a small sample of fisheries from the United States, and is subsequently applied globally to estimate the benefits of fishery recovery. That empirical relationship has been adopted for many subsequent high-profile analyses. Unfortunately, the analysis suffers from two important oversights: (1) because the model is non-linear, it suffers from “retransformation bias” and therefore the results significantly understate $MSY$ MSY and (2) the analysis is parameterized from of a very limited data set and so generalizability of the fitted empirical relationship between $MSY$ MSY and $MaxCatch$ MaxCatch to global fisheries is questionable. Here, we rectify both oversights and provide an updated estimate of the relationship between $MSY$ MSY and $MaxCatch$ MaxCatch .
Figures - uploaded by Steven D Gaines
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