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ARTICLES
Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change:
Developing Resilient and Ethical Adaptation Options
N. A. Onyekuru
•
Rob Marchant
Accepted: 18 August 2011
Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Abstract Global climate change will have a strong impact on Nigeria, particularly
on agricultural production and associated livelihoods. Although there is a growing
scientific consensus about the impact of climate change, efforts so far in Nigeria to
deal with these impacts are still rudimentary and not properly coordinated. There is
little evidence of any pragmatic approach towards tracking climate change in order
to develop an evidence base on which to formulate national adaptation strategies.
Although Nigeria is not alone in this regard, the paper asserts that National Climate
Change Adaptation Strategy could help address this situation by guiding the inte-
gration of climate change adaptation into government policies, strategies, and
programs, with particular focus on the most vulnerable groups and the agricultural
sectors. There is an urgent need to adopt abatement strategies that will provide
economic incentives to reduce the risk from disasters, such as developing agricul-
tural practices that are more resilient to a changing climate.
Keywords Climate change Agriculture Nigeria Adaptation Sustainability
Resilience
Introduction
Nigeria has a population of 154 million people (Taylor 2010) and covers an area of
923,768 km
2
(Federal Department of Agriculture (FDA) 2008). The physical and
climatic diversity of Nigeria (Fig. 1) supports the growth of a wide variety of crops.
Although famous for the crude oil resource, agriculture is strategic to the Nigerian
economy, supplying food, raw materials for industries, earning foreign exchange,
N. A. Onyekuru (&) R. Marchant
Ecosystems and Society Research Cluster, Department of Environment, University of York,
York, UK
e-mail: nao501@york.ac.uk
123
J Agric Environ Ethics
DOI 10.1007/s10806-011-9336-0
providing markets for the industrial sector and forms a key contributor to wealth
creation and poverty alleviation (FDA 2008). According to Adapide (2004), at the
turn of Nigeria’s political independence in October 1960, agriculture was the
dominant economic sector, contributing about 70% of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), employing about the same percentage of the working population, and
accounting for about 90% of foreign earnings and Federal Government revenue.
Today the reverse is the case; according to Nigerian Tribune (2011) the crude oil
sector accounts for about 80% of total revenue and 90% of foreign exchange
earnings. Notwithstanding this change, the country is the world’s leading producer
of cowpea, cassava, and yam, and agriculture continues to be central to the
livelihoods of many Nigerians with more than 70% of the population deriving their
livelihood from agriculture and agro allied activities (Federal Department of
Agriculture 2008). The agriculture sector accounts for 5% of total export, provides
88% of non oil earnings, and contributes about 41% of the GDP, 85% of which is
from crops sub-sector (Federal Department of Agriculture 2008). About 94% of the
agricultural output is accounted for by small scale, subsistent farmers farming less
than 2 ha (Federal Department of Agriculture 2008). Such small scale contributions
are particularly threatened by climate change due to limitations of scale and low
adaptation potential.
Oisahoin (2008) reports that impacts on people and their livelihoods resulting
from climate change is greater in Africa than in many parts of the world. On average
the continent is 0.5°C warmer than it was 100 years ago (IPCC 1996). Changing
weather patterns conditions are creating new complex emergencies where poorer
countries that are affected by famine, drought, and floods, are often accompanied by
outbreaks of infectious diseases. Already Nigeria has experienced definite shift in
the long-term rainfall mean towards more arid conditions (Adesina and Adejuwon
Fig. 1 Location map of Nigeria
N. A. Onyekuru, R. Marchant
123
1994). Slater et al. (2007) asserts that there are large uncertainties in current climate
change projections due to gaps in climate change science, uncertainties over crop
responses, in complex socio-economic relationships, and in the lack of detail in
current climate change and ecosystem models (Slater et al.2007). However, there
are very obvious changes in rainfall patterns; with respect to timing and duration the
Sudan Sahel region of Nigeria has suffered a 3–4% decrease in rainfall per decade
since the beginning of the nineteenth century (Muhammad 2008). Succinctly,
divisions between the rainy and dry seasons, when planting dates were pre-planed
resulting in predictable and bountiful harvest are no more. Erratic weather
conditions preclude the planning of agricultural activities in the country. Indeed,
Nigeria’s national capability for assessing, forecasting, and planning for climate
change mitigation and adaptation remains inadequate. The objective of this paper is
to appraise the response of Nigeria to climate change impacts in the country through
a review of the literature to assess how a sound, ethical environmental policy can be
established.
Vulnerability and Impact of Climate Change in Nigeria
Developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than developed
countries, because of the predominance of agriculture in their economies, the
scarcity of capital for adaptation measures, their warmer baseline climates and their
heightened exposure to extreme events (Parry et al. 2001). Thus, climate change
may have particularly serious consequences in the developing world, where some
800 million people are undernourished (Slater et al. 2007). Of great concern is a
group of more than 40 ‘‘least-developed’’ countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa,
where domestic per capita food production has declined by 10% in the last 20 years
(Slater et al. 2007). Thus, climate change impact will aggravate the already ‘‘in
crisis’’ situation in some of these countries. Podesta and Ogden (2008) assert that
West Africa suffers the greatest losses due to climate change; these amounting to
between 36 and 44% of the losses for the entire continent and between 42 and 60%
of agricultural regional GDP. Seven countries are predicted to suffer the largest
average losses in the agricultural sector with Nigeria suffering the highest in the
group (Podesta and Ogden (2008).
Nigeria will suffer from climate-induced drought, desertification, and sea level
rise (Podesta and Ogden 2007). Already, approximately 1,350 square miles of
Nigerian land turns to desert each year, forcing both farmers and herdsmen to
abandon their homes (McCarthy 2006). Muhammad (2008) reports that desert,
which now covers about 35% of Nigeria’s land mass, is advancing at an estimated
0.6 km yr
-1
while deforestation is taking place at 3.5%yr
-1
. The desert belt has
moved from Maidugri to Kebbi, Kano/Kaduna to Sokoto; a distance of about
1,200 km westward and about 800 to 900 km southwards, while the Savannah
interface between desert and forest is observed to be now around Oyo, Osun, Kogi,
and Makurdi—about a 1,200 km shift to the south (Fig. 1). Environmentally,
Nigeria’s climatic regime is being severely disrupted leaving its forests and water
resources at risk. Studies show that biological productivity in Nigeria is decreasing
Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change
123
(Adesina and Adejuwon 1994) with an additional consequence of severe fuelwood
shortages as a result of increased pressure on the forest in locations where
desertification has spread. According to Ikeme (2008) potential impacts of climate
change on Nigeria runs through the entire sector of the country’s economic, social,
and environmental landscape. For example, the projected impact of climate change
on electricity generation and hydroelectric dams due to impact of reduced water
flows on energy production and supply causing severe disruptions to economic
activities. This threat is made more acute as Nigeria relies heavily on hydroelec-
tricity, which accounts for over 36% of its electricity energy budget (Ikeme 2008).
The result would also have a significant effect on the industrial/manufacturing
sector, as well as the commercial and social activities of the nation.
The social implication of climate change for Nigeria is multidimensional. In the
first instance, projections suggest that Nigeria will experience massive environ-
mental refugee migration. One of the most vulnerable areas is along the coastal
region where an estimated 20 million people (22.6% of the national population) live
(Ikeme 2008). The estimated number of people that would be displaced ranges from
740,000 for a 0.2-m rise to 3.7 million for a 1-m rise and 10 million for a 2-m rise
(Awosika et al. 1992). Similarly, numerous economic activities are located within
the coastal zone that will be seriously impacted upon, for example, coastal areas
form the food basket of the region; estuaries and lagoons supporting industrial
fisheries accounting for more than 75% of fishery landings in the region. According
to Podesta and Ogden (2008), Lagos is one of the West African coastal megacities
that the IPCC fourth assessment report (2007) identifies as at risk from sea-level rise
by 2015. This, coupled with high population growth (Nigeria is the most populous
nation in Africa, with 75% of the population under the age of 30) that will force
significant migration and further contribute to political and economic turmoil. This
situation is exacerbated by the lack of a pragmatic approach by the government to
address the issue of population control coupled with inactivity regarding climate
change adaptation.
Efforts in Understanding, Mitigating and adapting to Climate Change
Several efforts have been made towards understanding and curbing the impacts of
climate change; these will be considered here at the international and national
levels.
International Level
The first World Climate Conference took place in 1979, however, it was not until
1988 that the United Nations gave serious attention to climate change in response to
growing environmental awareness and concern for the consequences of the
phenomenon. The UN General Assembly at its 43rd session in 1988, adopted
Resolution 43/53, titled: Protection of global climate for present and future
generations of mankind. The mounting evidence about the role of enhanced
greenhouse gases and the potential consequences for climate change and human
N. A. Onyekuru, R. Marchant
123
impacts prompted 154 countries around the world to sign the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in 1992. Global action to
address climate change is spear-headed by the UNFCC, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) via agreements emanating from the Copenhagen
Conference and the Cancun agreement. Current international agreements aim to
achieve stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that
would prevent dangerous interference with the global climate system (Ikeme 2008).
The IPCC is the leading international authority on climate change; it was formed
by the World Meteorology Organisation and the United Nations Environment
Program to advise governments on the latest climate change science, its impacts and
possible adaptation and mitigation responses. It publishes a major state-of-the-
science and climate impacts report every 5 years (IPCC, 1990, 1995, 2001 and
2007). The IPCC 2007 assessment report states ‘‘that the low adaptive capacity of
Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many African countries,
frequent natural disasters such as droughts and floods, a dominance of rain fed
agriculture, as well as a range of macro- and micro-structural problems’’ (Boko et al.
2007 in IPCC 2007). Significant constraints also include limited support for climate
risk management in agriculture and therefore a limited demand for such seasonal
forecast products, limited scientific capacity and other scientific resources,
particularly at the local level. Local adaptation is particularly acute as the rural
poor often cannot adopt diversification as an adaptive strategy as they often have
very limited diversification options available to them. Factors heightening
vulnerability to climate change and affecting national-level adaptation include
issues of local and national governance, civil and political rights and low levels of
literacy. The most vulnerable nations in the assessment were those situated in Sub-
Saharan Africa and specifically those states that have recently experienced
conflict—Nigeria belongs to both of these ‘‘high-risk’’ categories.
The latest IPCC (2007) report suggests that Africa needs to focus on increasing
adaptive capacity to climate variability and climate change over the long term.
Reducing risks with regard to possible future events will depend on building of
stronger livelihoods to ensure resilience to future climatic shocks. Institutions must
play a critical role in successful adaptation; developing and designing proactive
rather than reactive strategies to enhance adaptation. Interventions, such as
agricultural capital stock and extension advice, national grain reserves, grain future
markets, weather insurance, food price subsidies, cash transfers, school feeding
schemes, micro-financing, and social welfare grants are just some of the tools used
to enhance adaptation to climate change and mitigate impact of future shocks and
stresses. The success of these mechanisms in overcoming such constraints can be
enhanced if supported by local institutional arrangements developed on a long-term
sustainable basis. These adaptive solutions should be mainstreamed into national
development processes, with unprecedented collaborative efforts by governments,
humanitarian and development agencies to find ways to move away from reliance
on short-term emergency responses to food insecurity, to longer-term development-
oriented strategies that involve closer partnerships with governments (IPCC 2007).
Governments around the world are already implementing policies to mitigate or/and
adapt to climate change impacts. For example, Okorie (2009) reported that
Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change
123
American president, Barack Obama has ordered his energy secretary (Steven Chu)
to find ways by which America can change its energy policies and depend less on
fossil fuel. A range of steps, such as those outlined above, must be implemented in
conjunction with an international shift to a low carbon future.
National Level
At the national level in Nigeria some efforts have been made. A program entitled
‘‘Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change (BNRCC)’’ has been imple-
mented by the Nigeria Environmental Study/Action Team developed following an
earlier initiative called the Canada-Nigeria Climate Change Capacity Development
Project (CN-CCCD), implemented with funding from the Canadian International
Development Agency. The goal was to build public awareness/understanding and
support policies for optimal management of the climate change problem and
develop capacity-building for a range of issues surrounding climate change in
Nigeria. Through a series of workshops, consultations, and awards to intermediary
organizations and research institutions, CN-CCCD has worked to reach a range of
stakeholders with information on climate change, facilitated activities that enabled
the country, in November of 2003, to submit its First National Communication to
the Conference of the Parties. This indicated that a significant proportion of the
economy is dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, that resource conflicts,
exacerbated by climate change, is the greatest source of insecurity in Nigeria, and
that Nigeria’s vulnerability to climate change mandates that the country evolves
adaptive measures and contributes to international efforts in reducing emissions of
greenhouse gases (FGN 2003). National priorities include assessing the vulnera-
bility of sectors to different climate change scenarios, to develop, assess, and
implement mitigation and adaptation options for climate change. Other priority
areas include developing a legal framework, increasing public awareness, promot-
ing research, and building virile institutions and partnerships between the public and
private sectors to cope with climate change impacts. Preparation of the Second
National Communication is developing from a consultative process. Nigeria has set
up a National Focal Point—the Special Climate Change Unit—that constitute an
Inter-ministerial Committee inaugurated following a Roundtable Committee
discussion on climate change in August 2009 with action in progress to formulate
a national policy on climate change. The senate approved in November 2010 the
establishment of the National Climate Change Commission to coordinate efforts to
tackle the adverse impacts of climate change in the country with the commission
expected to be operational in 2011. A critical look at understanding the nature of
climate change and its impacts on socioeconomic and geopolitical infrastructure in
Nigeria, compared to the intending catastrophe and what is obtainable elsewhere,
are still rudimentary; just at the level establishment of committees and agencies,
conferences, workshop groups, and focus groups producing suggestions and papers.
There is no clear evidence of concrete, proactive, and pragmatic approach towards
tracking climate change incidence, early warning, research, mitigation, and
adaptation.
N. A. Onyekuru, R. Marchant
123
Discussion: Urgent Action Required for a Way Forward
Many interactive processes determine the dynamics of food demand and supply:
agro-climatic conditions, land resources and their management are clearly key
components that are critically affected by distinct socio-economic pressures,
including current and projected trends in population growth, availability, and access
to technology and development (Fischer et al. 2005). Relatively small climatic shifts
can trigger or exacerbate food shortages, water scarcity, the spread of disease,
human migration and natural resource competition (Podesta and Ogden 2008). Once
underway, this chain reaction becomes increasingly difficult to stop. The impact of
climate change–induced migration will be felt throughout Africa, but its effects in
Nigeria pose particularly acute geopolitical challenges, both manifested by internal
and international migration (Podesta and Ogden 2008). The first domestic migratory
wave will likely be from agricultural regions to urban centers where more social
services are available. Such a situation will exacerbate the risk of state failure as
central governments lose control over stretches of their territory and their borders.
A study by Mendelsohn (2000) identified serious deficiency in African impact
research, given the importance of efficient adaptation, presently, public infrastruc-
ture such as roads, long-term weather forecasts, and agricultural research and
extension are inadequate to secure appropriate adaptation. This stance was
corroborated by the findings of DFID (2009) in their assessment of Nigeria’s
vulnerability to climate change. According to the DFID (2009) report there exist
extensive data gaps in Nigeria, with respect to assessing impacts and adaptation
strategies; climatic data and trends, baseline natural resource and socio-economic
conditions, location and importance of assets, extreme events and socioeconomic
data, particularly acute at a local and regional level. Numerous policies coming out
of BNRCC relating to environment and climate cover numerous sectors such as
environment, energy, agriculture, health and sanitation, housing and urban
development, and gender. However, many of these policies were formulated solely
by the federal government using a top-down approach and lack proper implemen-
tation and enforcement. Furthermore, there is lack of proper coordination between
these policies and the different economic sectors, which has limited the focus on
climate change adaptation (Oisahoin 2008). The problem therefore is not only the
issue of lack of policy but that of lack of political will to pursue their logical and
efficient implementation. There also lacks a system to criticality assess the impacts
of these policies and monitor effectiveness so that there can be feedback into
developing new ones and appropriate policy.
Since over 70% of the Nigerian population derive their livelihoods from
agriculture (FDA 2008) with the sector being crucial in the provision of food,
income, raw material, and employment, there is need to invest money from crude oil
into the agricultural sector and evolve adaptation strategies to safeguard the sector
and the nation state. These adaptations include such initiatives as the development
of early warning systems to enable timely remedial measures, effective water use
strategies and intensive research into energy usage. A central element of adaptation
approach should be ecosystem management and restoration activities such as
forestation, watershed rehabilitation, effective water harvesting, and conservation.
Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change
123
These focal areas should promote best practices that are climate change resilient in
agriculture and fisheries, including promoting the use of cleaner energy sources.
Better planning to reduce the risk from disasters, together with developing
agricultural practices that are more resilient to changing climates would also help
mitigate climate change impacts.
Lending a voice to this call for action, Ogonnaya (2009) asserts that climate
change is an ‘‘unprecedented’’ threat to food security and calls for a ‘‘climate-proof’’
model of development and massive emission cuts to avoid ‘‘possibly cataclysmic
change.’’ Although climates across Africa have always been erratic, scientific
research and the experience, ‘‘indicate new and dangerous extreme’’ forecasts
(Ogonnaya 2009). Climate change is an overwhelming development issue across
Africa, unless we take genuine steps now to firstly, adapt, the consequences will be
enormous. Deepening health hazards and poverty imposes on the government the
responsibility to take proactive remedial measures. Secondly, public awareness and
enlightenment must be a priority. Egbonugwu and Adegboye (2009) observed that
the level of public awareness about environmental issues and the need to protect it
for sustainable living is very low. Even lower is public knowledge about climate
change and available adaptation and mitigation measures. Such an awareness deficit
on these critical threatening issues must be urgently and decisively addressed
(Egbonugwu and Adegboye 2009). Research on the nature of climate change and
the socio-economic implications on Nigeria is necessary for developing adequate
response strategies. Developing climate change science and its potential impacts on
Nigerian agriculture, its people and the associated livelihoods is very important for
both creating awareness, and providing the background information required for
targeting policies. Indeed, lack of awareness is a major constraint to adequate
forecasting and formulation of adaptation policies exacerbated by the paucity of
climate data in Nigeria. Studies on national and regional climate change in Nigeria
should be embarked upon and vigorously pursued in the short to medium term. The
findings of such studies will be crucial for the formulation of adequate response and
adaptation policies that are evidence-based and have the potential to engender long
term sustainability.
For reducing it’s contribution to climate change, the mandate for Nigerian energy
planners is to institutionalize its development of energy efficiency and renewable
energy with appropriate goals and timetables for increasing the use of renewable
energy resources in areas where grid extension is too costly and where opportunities
for the use of renewable energy sources is economically warranted. This should be
accompanied by an inbuilt mechanism for stock-taking and reassessment of progress
so that targets can be implemented and success measured. In addition to building
institutional framework, Nigeria should also adopt specific regulatory measures such
as establishing comprehensive air quality standards and create national energy
efficiency codes that have the potential to be the driving force for rapid development
of the country’s energy efficiency and renewable energy opportunities. Market
transformation mechanisms, similar to that adopted in some developed countries, and
how these will encourage more rapid development of its energy efficiency and
renewable energy potential, should be explored. This objective will obviously benefit
N. A. Onyekuru, R. Marchant
123
from an increase in government-industry collaboration; a key avenue for develop-
ment rarely explored in Nigeria’s development initiatives.
Ethical Considerations
From empirical evidence it is apparent that the Developing World, especially
African countries, will bear the major brunt of a problem caused by global collective
action of which they are the least contributor. High levels of poverty and low levels
of human development further limit the capacity of Africa to manage risks due to
climate change. Although Nigeria needs to do something pragmatic to address the
impacts of climate change this should be supported by the global community.
According to United Nations Statistics Division (2010) Nigeria emits 95,272 metric
tonnes of CO
2
, which account for about 0.32% of global emissions, this is very
minimal compared to the world leading CO
2
emitters; China (22.30%), US
(19.91%), India (5.5%), Russia (5.25%) and Japan (4.28%). Nigeria, will inevitably
be subjected to the International climate change abatement measures, and should
begin now to put adequate climate change abatement institutions and regulatory
framework in place. In as much as the developed nations should urgently and
significantly cut down their emission level, developing nations like Nigeria should
at the onset embrace clean and renewable energy alternatives in their quest for
economic growth. This though may be more expensive in the short run, but will pay
off in the long run, as they will be compensated via the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) instrument. This is the most ethical, rational, and justifiable
thing to do. As the industrial nations are responsible for the vast majority of global
pollution, these countries have the moral responsibility of funding global
remediation expenses. Additionally, the industrially advanced nations need to assist
developing countries with funding and technical assistance to conduct environ-
mental and economic impact analyses and establish sound environmental practices
to protect the health of their citizens. Oil-producing countries should be
compensated for their projected income losses in the event of the implementation
of the Kyoto protocol and assisted in their economy diversification. Nigeria can only
be sure that its interest is protected in the emergent global abatement strategy if it
increases its level of participation in international negotiations. In addition, findings
from research on all dimensions of the climate change can be used to guide policy
development and developmental trajectories. The developing world should feed into
the CDM provided of the Kyoto protocol and emphasize on the provision of
substantial monetary aid and invest heavily in forestation scheme. The benefits;
such as carbon sequestration, esthetic appeal, biodiversity conservation (especially
the endangered species), ecological and human welfare, though are construed with
intrinsic values, are enormous and surely out-weigh the visible physical structures
that many politicians are much more interested in. The success due to climate
change mitigation and adaptation will impact more on long-term sustainable
development rather than immediate physical infrastructure that will fade away with
the passage of time. Finally, globalization of markets means that Nigeria’s
competitive edge may be jeopardized if it fails to apply environmentally sensitive
methods of energy abstraction and consumption in its economic development.
Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change
123
Increased government participation in the global climate change deliberation in
order to negotiate a better world trade deal for Nigeria and Africa is necessary.
Conclusion
Climate change impacts in developing countries such as Nigeria are a global issue,
long-term and involve complex interactions between demographic, climatic,
environmental, economic, health, political, institutional, social and technological
processes. Science, economics, and philosophy have to combine to form a cohesive
alliance (Brandolino 2010). It therefore means that for Nigeria to achieve
sustainable productivity in the face of the climate change there has to be an
alliance among all sectors and disciplines in the economy. Nigeria cannot afford to
continue ignoring the potential impacts of the global climate change and the impact
on its oil-based economy. The paper infers that though Nigeria should capitalize on
the emission concession afforded it for its low historical contribution to the climate
change problem, it is in its interest to begin to introduce measures to reduce its
greenhouse gas emissions, develop and apply more sustainable renewable energy
alternatives to abort the negative impacts of climate change on its economic, social,
and environmental resources. It is imperative that the Nigerian economy be
diversified and steered away from fossil fuels both in terms of production and
consumption. An ethical policy needs to address ‘‘sustainable development through
ecosystem management requiring changing human values, economics, and ecolog-
ical realities, ideas, and knowledge. The three core values that need to be addressed
in policy making are protection of human health, sound ecological practices and
resource sustainability. Climate change abatement should be a concern to the nation,
its resources and interaction with the world. Stewardship of the planet is a moral
task which demands us to do what is right; what is right will engender future long
term environmental stability and maximize the potentials for national development.
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