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Fire Risk Assessment of Residential Buildings Based on Fire Statistics from China
Abstract
Fire statistics provide valuable information for the assessment of future fire risks. The paper analyses the fire situation in China from 1991 to 2010. The temporal, spatial, and causal fire incident data for the last 6 years have been analyzed to gain an understanding of fire characteristics and the elements affecting fire risks. It is found that the number of fires was observed to be higher during cold winter months, and fires were more frequent during the weekend. The number of fires was lower during nighttime, whereas the number of fire deaths between midnight and 4 a.m. was much higher than at other times of the day. Most fire incidents occurred in residential buildings. In economically developed East China, the fire situation is much more serious. Electrical failures and improperly fire use in daily life were major causes of fire incidents. Based on the statistical data from China’s fire services and the China Statistical Yearbook, the risk of occupant deaths and the risk of direct property loss are calculated to express the risk level in residential buildings. It is found that the risk of occupant deaths had a declining trend over the years. Statistics is considered a useful tool for learning from the actual events, and it helps decision makers develop proactive fire protection measures to reduce fatalities and financial losses caused by fires.
... Although there are slightly less fire cases being observed at the end of the years, the overall frequencies are (Figure 3) with an average of about 202 cases each month. This result is not consistent with other countries [10,11] because Malaysia is a tropical country without changing of season throughout the year. Those countries encountered that cold winter (i.e. ...
... For distribution by day of week, weekdays tend to have higher number of fire occurrence compared to weekends with the highest in Wednesday as shown in Figure 4. This is different to data in China, where weekends have the higher fire occurrence [11]. Other than that, U.S. has a rather even distribution with about 14% everyday [10]. ...
... The number of fires decreased after 6 p.m. and reached its minimum in the midnight periods. This has reached the agreement with both data in U.S and China [10,11]. ...
This is a research in progress where authors seek to investigate the factors of residential fires. As part of the research, this paper aims to analyse the fire problems faced by the community of Malaysia. Data regarding residential fires between 2012 and 2014 was collected from fire investigation reports prepared by the Selangor Fire and Rescue Department. Descriptive analysis is conducted to summarize the data collected and describe the common phenomenon of residential fires. The distributions of the fire characteristics suggested that residential fires are commonly occurred during daytime, confined within the room of fire origin, caused by electrical failure and cooking negligence, started from kitchen, and occurred in multi-units housing. Further analysis will be conducted in order to investigate the relationships between the characteristics and residential fires.
... The study's findings can be used as inputs and foundations for other types of research in fire safety studies. Identifying the dynamics of fire incidences, particularly spatiotemporal dynamics, is crucial for enhancing the efficacy and efficiency of fire safety management [14,15]. Although fire prevention is impossible [16], identifying risk factors and effectively managing them can help reduce fire costs [13][14][15]17]. ...
... Identifying the dynamics of fire incidences, particularly spatiotemporal dynamics, is crucial for enhancing the efficacy and efficiency of fire safety management [14,15]. Although fire prevention is impossible [16], identifying risk factors and effectively managing them can help reduce fire costs [13][14][15]17]. As a result, analyzing fire risk across geographic areas is critical for urban fire prevention and control, as well as optimizing fire service resource allocation [3]. ...
The study aims to identify fire patterns in Mashhad, the second-most populous city in Iran, between 2015 and 2019. Spatial scan statistics were utilized to determine the spatiotemporal patterns of 29,889 fire events in the research area. There were four primary types of fires: (1) structural fires (39%), (2) vehicle fires (11%), (3) green and open space fires (19%), and (4) others (31%). The interval from 12:00 to 23:00 h was identified as the high-risk period for all fire incidents. Fires were common in the nearby city core. Additionally, three significant hourly spatial-temporal clusters of firefighting operations were identified: the western part of the city between 12:00 and 23:00, the city center between 11:00 and 22:00, and the southeastern part between 11:00 and 22:00. Population density, illiteracy ratio, unemployment ratio, youth ratio, low income population, and the number of old buildings might be socio-economic criteria that contribute to the spatiotemporal pattern of urban fires. Urban planners might prioritize high-risk neighborhoods when allocating resources for fire safety. Future research could specifically investigate high-risk regions to identify relevant characteristics in these areas.
... The majority of South Jakarta resident are employer at the Central Jakarta area, where the center of government and economy is located. Most fire incidents occurred in residential buildings (Xin & Huang, 2014). Building fires are seen to pose a serious risk to human safety and are typically brought on by human action (Shokouh et al., 2019). ...
... Building fires are seen to pose a serious risk to human safety and are typically brought on by human action (Shokouh et al., 2019). Electrical failures and improperly fire use in daily life were major causes of fire incidents (Xin & Huang, 2014). Most South Jakartan resident leave their homes from dawn to evening as a result of this reality. ...
This research aims to apply the spatial analysis to optimize the placement of firefighting units in the area of South Jakarta. The calculation and pre-analysis shown that there are some uncovered service areas at South Jakarta. Therefore, the recalculation and analysis help to find out the strategic new possible location for the fire station. Optimalization of the location of the new fire station is conducted by calculating the minimum time travel from help point to fire point. Other than that, the minimum time travel also calculated based on actual blocks and crowd. After that, the optimizing the location of the fire unit is determined by the support of a planning tool known as ArcView. It is a Geographic Information System (GIS) through the formulation of a mathematical and accessibility model. Through the new analysis with considering the actual fact and using the technology, the results showed that to optimize of the entire range of the South Jakarta area another ten new posts of firefighting unit need to be added.
... Of these approaches can be FiRECAM and FiREA system. These tools can be helpful in calculating the expected life risk and fire cost expectation (Xin and Huang 2013a) (Xin and Huang 2013b). Furthermore, various probabilistic models including Bayesian belief network model have been used to evaluate the individuals' safety and fatality risk in home fires. ...
... Reliable estimation of ignition frequency is a significantly important step in quantitative fire risk assessment. Among different functional forms of the floor area factor, the generalized Barrios model has provided a general approach to model the average probability of fire occurrence in a building under the study of floor area (Xin and Huang 2013a). The parameters of this model can be used to calculate the ignition frequency of fire in a building considering the floor area the building has. ...
... Quite many Computer programs had been developed for effective and efficient fire hazard risk reduction in buildings (Xin & Huang, 2014). These computer programs have its fundamental base in theoretical and real-life data premises using codes to interconnect their operations towards an optimised risk analysis (Tofiło, Konecki, Gałaj, Jaskółowski, & Tuśnio, 2013). ...
... The data used as a pilot to the probabilities assigned to each factor analysed in figures 5 and 6. Deriving probability from fire statistics had been an established method (Xin & Huang, 2014). The DayoFRA (software) was developed using fire accident statistics for South Africa. ...
The successive event of fire mishaps in business buildings has been a significant issue. Accurately quantifying fire risks had been a complicated process due to its stochastic behaviour. Existing fire risk assessment applications are models dedicated to industrial fire hazards and wildfires. They are less suitable for fire risk analysis for the built environment. Also, most of these software require high rate subscriptions. More often than not, they require a highly-skilled programmer to use them. The development of a quantitative means for assessing the inclination of commercial complexes to a purported risk of “market fires‟ was done using the past fire accidents’ investigation reports. Some verified fire accident investigations were used to optimise the fire model; adopting the methodology highlights of the Qualitative Risk Assessment (QRA). A Visual Basic (VB) oriented computer programme for the model was developed to assess selected commercial buildings in Johannesburg city of South Africa. The model and the associated computer programme showed the accuracy of the developed fire risk model in forecasting fire hazards. The estimated fire risks correlated with the fire incident histories of the evaluated complexes, thus validating the model. The model application could be a useful tool for predicting fire accidents for stakeholders.
... Key aspects are: 1. Fire building code: effectiveness unclear in case of a fire In particular, fire safety engineers and risk engineers need reliable data to build on [41]. Most fire safety engineering relies on reverse engineering [13,18,32] based on prescriptive building rules [5]. ...
Fire statistics mirror the outcome of fire prevention. Most fire statistics in Germany deal with the loss of life, value, and fire department actions (number of interventions, nozzles used, or alarm category like a false alarm). However, these results also represent the safety level the legislator has set through the prescriptive building regulations. The current statistics cannot evaluate the level of fire safety and the fulfillment or necessity of fire safety precautions. Today, expert judgment from firefighters is necessary to fill this gap. Here, we show the first evaluation of fire prevention and hazard protection measures by evaluating 900 potentially harming fires throughout Germany. In contrast to minor fires, these fires have advanced to the extent that they could potentially violate the protection objectives outlined in building regulations. The fire department association developed a questionnaire to evaluate the fire safety level and possibly reduce unnecessary fire safety regulations. One hundred twenty-three fire departments carried out the questionnaire, which are responsible for 25% of the German population. Fire prevention officers of the fire departments went to the scene after the fire was extinguished, and the fire safety concept of the building could be evaluated. We found a high rate of injuries, smoke spread, need for rescue by firefighters, and higher than expected firefighter response times after arrival at the scene. Surprisingly, smoke spread rates correlated with building height and not with building age. It was even possible to assess the risk of multiple casualties. Overall, the questionnaire results give insight into the current level of fire safety in existing buildings. Ways and rates for smoke and fire spread prove the importance of second escape routes and the influence of human misconduct. According to these results, current building code regulations are sufficient to prevent fire spread. On the other hand, smoke spreading is a severe threat to people’s safety. For example, the data shown can be applied in Bayes nets or other risk calculations to optimize individual building designs or even governmental building codes concerning fire safety engineering. Based on our observations, science, and building codes, authorities could in the future establish a performance-based building code instead of the current prescriptive code. This paper presents the first approach in Germany to quantify the expert judgment of fire departments and use it as a source of knowledge for fire prevention.
... In Finland, refrigeration machines are also known to be the primary causes of fires in residential areas 6 . Contrary to Europe and the United States, in China, many fires in residential areas were generally triggered by electrical failure and careless behaviors toward the fire source 17 . The fire situation in China is almost similar to that in Indonesia. ...
Fires that occur in residential areas have a negative impact on the community, from both social and economic perspectives. In urban areas, where the high density of buildings and people is evenly distributed, the chances of loss of life and property are considerably high. Those changes are even higher in residential areas or villages located far from fire brigade access. The occupants should not wait for the assistance of the city fire brigade but should act to terminate the flame themselves to save their properties and lives. This study aimed to determine the awareness of fire safety measures in residential areas and fire safety behavior and the capability of residents to independently extinguish fires. A total of 122 participants participated in filling out an online questionnaire to find answers to possible strategies for handling fires in residential areas. Statistical analysis was carried out to see behavioral trends and some of the potential in the community to prevent fires in residential areas. This study discovered that the availability of water is mostly preferred for fighting fires in residential areas, that there is a lack of awareness of electrical as the primary source of fires and that a level of disbelief in the society’s ability to fight fires on their own. This study includes both individual and communal self-extinguishing strategies.
... Despite this increased burden, there is limited research on LMICs on rates of injury/death and property damage resulting from residential fires. Studies conducted on LMICs reveal that fire is a regular problem in homes, workplaces, hospitals, and public places, and has become a serious threat, particularly for urban settlement [7,[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. However, most of these studies describe fire incidence and prevalence across these settings without the provision of information specifically on residential fires. ...
Globally, most fire-related deaths and injuries occur in residential areas. The aim of this systematic review is to report on the economic costs of residential fires from a societal perspective. Five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, CINAHL, and Scopus) and grey literature were searched to identify studies that report economic or societal costs of residential fires with data from 1978 to 2021. There were no restrictions on study design. A narrative synthesis was undertaken based on the societal and economic costs reported for each included study. Seven studies from the United States, Canada, Australia, and Kuwait reported costs of residential fires. The costs of injuries and deaths were between USD 12 million and USD 5 billion, and between USD 75 million and USD 26 billion, respectively. The costs of treatment ranged from USD 0.3 million to USD 551 million, lost productivity from USD 12 million to USD 4 billion, and property damage from USD 8 million to USD 10 billion. This systematic review provides the most comprehensive evidence to date on the economic costs of residential fires. This study would offer insights into the effects of residential fires on diverse economic agents and aid in community fire prevention messaging and incentives.
... Meanwhile, high-rise buildings are multifunctional, highly electrifed and automated, equipped with lots of electrical facilities, and consume a large amount of power, making them vulnerable to electric leakage, short circuit, and other faults and prone to fre accidents [4,5]. According to the statistics of high-rise buildings fre cases in the recent decade, the fres caused by electrical system faults accounted for about 31% [6]. For example, the fres of Windsor Tower [7], the Plasco building [8], and the Grenfell Tower [9] were due to a short circuit, which resulted in severe human injuries and property damage. ...
High-rise buildings fires are far more harmful than ordinary fires. In this regard, fire risk assessment is an important way to control fire risk and reduce losses. This study presents a comprehensive model to electrical fire dynamic risk assessment of high-rise buildings based on a Bayesian network (BN) and a variable fuzzy set theory (VFST). Firstly, electric system, safety management, and other factors were comprehensively analyzed based on three categories: hazard sources identification (HSI), fault tree (FT) analysis, and VFST. A high-rise building electrical fire dynamic risk assessment model was established based on a BN. Secondly, the prior probability of BN root nodes was determined by VFST, and the conditional probability table (CPT) was determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decomposition method. On that basis, the quantitative inference and sensitivity analysis can be performed on the electrical fire risks of high-rise buildings in combination with the variable fuzzy Bayesian network (VFBN) inference. Finally, a high-rise building in Wuhan, China, was used as an example for verification. The results show that the proposed method can realize dynamic risk assessment of electrical fires in high-rise buildings. This study provides a new method for fire risk assessment of high-rise buildings to reduce the possibility of fire.
... Moreover, the tourism industry relies on the rapid development of heritage villages. Increasing moving embers and electric power facilities lead to increased risk sources [31], which makes heritage villages more prone to fire risk. These factors form a closed-loop relationship of fire dynamics as shown in Figure 4b. ...
Fire risk assessment is important in heritage-village risk management and cultural relics protection. This study aims to establish a fire risk assessment system and model to assess fire safety for heritage villages. Given the complexity and openness of the heritage village system, the nonlinearity of the driving factors, and the dual attributes of residence and tourism, this paper constructs an index system of three aspects: cultural relic value sensitivity, village fire hazard, and evacuation accessibility. Based on ANP and the Bayes algorithm, a hybrid intelligent model is developed, and the index is weighted by combining subjective expert scoring and objective fact statistics. Finally, ArcGIS buffer and network analysis functions are used for grid processing to quantify and evaluate the difference in fire risk distribution in spatial units of heritage villages. We apply this assessment method to Chengkan Village, a national critical cultural relic protection unit. The results reveal that the cluster settlement layout pattern of the ancestral temple buildings plays a decisive role in the fire risk distribution in Chengkan Village; furthermore, the main factors leading to fire risk were analyzed. In Chengkan Village’s core area, the focus of the local government should be on strengthening active fire prevention measures to reduce the probability of fire. In contrast, in the northern and southern areas, it should focus on enhancing passive fire prevention measures to reduce the possibility of significant fires.
... Moreover, China as a country had a total of 132,497 fires in 2010 alone. This is a large number, especially when it is said that most of these fires took place in residential buildings killing 1205 people in the process and severely injuring 624 others [3]. In Australia, fires occurred in high-rise buildings due to the use of highly combustible lightweight thin aluminum alloy façades, even when the building's management said that the building was compliant with the cladding standards of 2017. ...
Concrete is a heterogeneous material that consists of cement, aggregates, and water as basic constituents. Several cementitious materials and additives are added with different volumetric ratios to improve the strength and durability requirements of concrete. Consequently, performance of concrete when exposed to elevated temperature is greatly affected by the concrete type. Moreover, post-fire properties of concrete are influenced by the constituents of each concrete type. Heating rate, days of curing, type of curing, cooling method, and constituents of the mix are some of the factors that impact the post-fire behavior of concrete structures. In this paper, an extensive review was conducted and focused on the effect of concrete constituents on the overall behavior of concrete when exposed to elevated temperature. It was evident that utilizing fibers can improve the tensile capacity of concrete after exposure to higher temperatures. However, there is an increased risk of spalling due to the induced internal stresses. In addition, supplementary cementitious materials such as metakaolin and silica fume enhanced concrete strength, the latter proving to be the most effective. In terms of the heating process, it was clear that several constituents, such as silica fume or fly ash, that decrease absorption affect overall workability, increase the compressive strength of concrete, and can yield an increase in the strength of concrete at 200 °C. Most of the concrete types show a moderate and steady decrease in the strength up until 400 °C. However, the decrease is more rapid until the concrete reaches 800 °C or 1000 °C at which it spalls or cannot take any applied load. This review highlighted the need for more research and codes’ provisions to account for different types of concrete constituents and advanced construction materials technology.
... Moreover, China as a country had a total of 132,497 fires in 2010 alone. This is a large number, especially when it is said that most of these fires took place in residential buildings killing 1205 people in the process and severely injuring 624 others [3]. In Australia, fires occurred in high-rise buildings due to the use of highly combustible lightweight thin aluminum alloy façades, even when the building's management said that the building was compliant with the cladding standards of 2017. ...
Concrete is a heterogeneous material that consists of cement, aggregates, and water as
basic constituents. Several cementitious materials and additives are added with different volumetric ratios to improve the strength and durability requirements of concrete. Consequently, performance of concrete when exposed to elevated temperature is greatly affected by the concrete type. Moreover, post-fire properties of concrete are influenced by the constituents of each concrete type. Heating rate, days of curing, type of curing, cooling method, and constituents of the mix are some of the factors that impact the post-fire behavior of concrete structures. In this paper, an extensive review was conducted and focused on the effect of concrete constituents on the overall behavior of concrete
when exposed to elevated temperature. It was evident that utilizing fibers can improve the tensile capacity of concrete after exposure to higher temperatures. However, there is an increased risk of spalling due to the induced internal stresses. In addition, supplementary cementitious materials such as metakaolin and silica fume enhanced concrete strength, the latter proving to be the most effective. In terms of the heating process, it was clear that several constituents, such as silica fume or fly ash, that decrease absorption affect overall workability, increase the compressive strength of concrete, and can yield an increase in the strength of concrete at 200C. Most of the concrete types show a
moderate and steady decrease in the strength up until 400C. However, the decrease is more rapid until the concrete reaches 800C or 1000C at which it spalls or cannot take any applied load. This review highlighted the need for more research and codes’ provisions to account for different types of concrete constituents and advanced construction materials technology.
... Previous studies analyzed the fire situation in China in 1998 using cross-section analysis (Lizhong et al., 2002). Fire frequency and fire characteristics during the phase time have also been described Xin and Huang, 2014). In terms of research content, the existing studies focus on various characterizations of fires and lack an overall assessment of the current status of fires. ...
Fire is one of the disasters that frequently threaten public safety and social development, especially in developing countries such as China. The occurrence and spread of fire have distinctive characteristics. The analysis of fire causes and the summary of the unique patterns of fire with socioeconomic development and time can provide guidance and services for fire prevention. Therefore, based on the official data of China from 1999 to 2019, the current situation of fires in China is described in terms of four indicators, including the number of fires, the number of deaths, the number of injuries, and direct losses. In addition, the current situation, temporal volatility, and causes of the more severe fires in China were analyzed. The entropy weight-TOPSIS model was used to assess the fire patterns in China in the last two decades. The spatial correlation of fires in each province of China was analyzed by the Moran’s I index and LISA index. The results show that the overall fire situation in China has improved in the last two decades. Still, the spatial aggregation of fires is becoming more and more apparent, and human factors are the leading cause of fires in China. The study can provide a theoretical and decision-making basis for fire situation prognosis, fire prevention, and effective spatial allocation of fire prevention resources in China and other countries.
... Babrauskas V [24] noted that overcurrent faults have higher fire hazards. In addition, overcurrent is the ultimate manifestation of a variety of electrical faults [25,26]. This article is based on previous research. ...
To clarify the understanding and analysis of arc molten marks in electrical faults of aluminum alloy wires, this paper simulates overcurrent faults of aluminum alloy wires at currents of 128 A–224 A and uses thermogravimetry-differential scanning calorimetry (TG-DSC), optical microscopy (OM), scanning electron microscope (SEM) and X-ray energy spectroscopy (EDS) to characterize the effects of current on the microstructure of arc beads. The results show that there are small and large amounts of Al-Si and Al-Fe binary phases in the metallographic structure of the aluminum alloy wires at the rated current, the grains are fine, and there are no significant grain boundaries. After an overcurrent fault occurs in the wires, a high-temperature arc causes the second phase in the aluminum alloy to disappear, a cellular dendritic metallographic structure appears, the grain boundaries become more well-defined, and composition segregation occurs at the grain boundaries. Using the Image-Pro-Plus software to quantify the grain characteristics, the average grain size is found to gradually decrease as the current increases. In addition, by comparing and analyzing the characteristics of arc beads in aluminum wires and aluminum alloy wires under the same conditions, alloying elements are found to have a refining effect on the grain boundaries, and there are coarse precipitates at the grain boundaries in the aluminum wire arc beads.
... The time distribution and spatial distribution as well as the causes of the electrical fire in the residential building are evaluated. This paper presents some statistical correlation for people to learn from actual events [9]. The results of the paper could be used for policy formulation and allocation of fire prevention resources. ...
... The results show that more than 70% had the opportunity to use the mentioned devices, which still does not indicate whether they were used properly. Although the results obtained are consistent with previous research (Chien & Wu, 2008;Warda & Ballesteros, 2008;Xin & Huang, 2014), in the future research, it is necessary to determine the extent to which employees are trained for their proper and safe use. Also, the results showed that slightly more than a half of the respondents had experience with the hydrant network, but it was not determined how they used it and whether it was done in a proper and safe way (Coar et al., 2020). ...
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society.
... Human factor has an important impact on a successful evacuation during fire emergency. In addition, Figure 2 shows the characteristics of building occupants that include personality traits, position and consciousness, knowledge and experience, power of observation and judgement, power of movement, familiarity with layout and social features (Xin & Huang, 2013b). In addition, Table 6 shows characteristic of occupants during fire situation that consist of personality, personal behaviour, individual characteristic, demographics, attitude, travel speed, movement types, sizes, observational abilities, responsibility for other evacuees, familiarity with building layout, individual capacities, number of occupants, location of occupants and lastly perceptual features of the occupant. ...
Fire is an ignition of heat and smoke materials, which can pose a significant life and property threat. Residential fire in Malaysia has a high percentage of fire cases due to electrical sources, cooking appliances, defective of equipment, careless and negligence. Evacuation during fire is the most critical features in building safety. This includes the utilization of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in developing a good and efficient fire evacuation. This research paper aims to propose and established a conceptual framework of Dwelling Fire Safety Evacuation (DFSE). This paper utilizes the technique of systematic overview from previous research which includes journals, conferences proceedings, reports, framework and guidelines. The outcome of this paper consists the elements of dwelling fire safety evacuation including the element of Fire Scenarios (i.e., Fire characteristic, Building characteristic and Occupant characteristic), Influences Perceived Risk (i.e., Individual-Based, Physical and Social), Survival Strategy (i.e., extinguish, shelter and evacuation) and Safety (i.e., shortest time and awareness) which contributed to the development of the conceptual framework. These findings will assist the extended investigation of DFSE for accidental fire situations.
... Ren designed a model for assessing the fire risks of logistics warehouses by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method [7]. Xin et al. analyzed a large number of fire incidents in China, determined the characteristics and main factors of the fires, and evaluated the risk levels of residential buildings [8]. Wu et al. presented a diagnostic assessment of fire safety by using the extension engineering method, which can be applied for all kinds of buildings [9]. ...
To prevent fire accidents in high-rise buildings under construction, in this paper, the fire risk assessment of such buildings is studied. First, based on project investigation and a literature review, a fire risk assessment index system suitable for high-rise buildings under construction was established. Second, the unascertained measure theory was applied to establish a fire risk assessment model for high-rise buildings under construction. The index weight was determined by the entropy weight method. Finally, taking a high-rise building project in Xi’an, China, as an example, the feasibility and rationality of the fire risk assessment index system and assessment model were verified. This research provides a new method for objectively assessing the fire risk of high-rise buildings under construction and provides a certain reference for controlling the fire risk of high-rise buildings under construction.
... In order to gain an understanding of fire characteristics and the elements affecting fire risks, Jing et al. analyzed the temporal, spatial, and causal fire incident data from 2005 to 2010 in China. They found that most fire incidents occurred in residential buildings and in economically developed East China, the fire situation is much more serious [9]. D. Liu et al. analyzed spatial distribution characteristics of fire risk generally based on data visualizations of fire incidents [10]. ...
... As it happens in Spain, residential fires are the main scenario where casualties occur, accounting for closely three out four fatal fires in the United States and the United Kingdom [8,9]. The pattern is similar in other countries, such as in New Zealand (65%), China (69.6%) or Sweden (80-90%) [10][11][12][13][14][15]. ...
77% of fatal fires in Spain take place in residential buildings, and more than 60% of deaths are people over 65 years old. The collection of fire loss data in Spain is poorly regulated and it does not have homogeneity. This makes it extremely difficult to study the fire problem and the effectiveness of different safety strategies in general, and more specifically with relation to vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. As first step to assess the measures aimed to reduce mortality in residential buildings, a methodology for collecting fire data has been developed, based on information extracted from the media. Information on 289 fatal dwelling fires has been systematically analyzed in order to identify the prevention and protection strategies more effective to prevent fire deaths. Among the identified measures, they stand out the installation of fire detection and alarm systems in residential buildings, which is not required by law at the present time, and the installation of automatic extinguishing systems, such as household sprinklers. The use of safe heating systems, avoiding old and bad-maintained portable heaters, is a particularly useful prevention strategy for the elderly people.
... The results show that more than 70% had the opportunity to use the mentioned devices, which still does not indicate whether they were used properly. Although the results obtained are consistent with previous research (Chien & Wu, 2008;Warda & Ballesteros, 2008;Xin & Huang, 2014), in the future research, it is necessary to determine the extent to which employees are trained for their proper and safe use. Also, the results showed that slightly more than a half of the respondents had NBP • Journal of Criminalistics and Law Vol. 26, No. 1 experience with the hydrant network, but it was not determined how they used it and whether it was done in a proper and safe way (Coar et al., 2020). ...
Introduction. Assisting students face high academic demands which, together with interpersonal, intrapersonal and professional requirements, can be a significant source of stress. The aim of the research was to examine the intensity and frequency of the source of stress, coping strategies and identify gender differences among students, future assisting professionals. Methods. An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted amongst the students of the University of the Belgrade Faculty of Security (Serbia) who, after graduation, will acquire the title of a security manager responsible for human resources in the civil sector. The data were collected in the period October/November 2018. The authorized questionnaire SSM-30 by Jović (Stress scale for the young - 30) was used, which enables students to assess the tress situations intensity on a scale from 1 (minimum) to 10 (maximum intensity). The SSM-30 questionnaire is a combination of the standard Life Events Scale - Holmes Rashe Life Events Scale, also known as the Social readjustment Rating Scale and life events characteristic for the student population. The questionnaire also included the sample demographic characteristics –gender, and a year of study. The SSM-30 scale includes a list of stressful events and stress coping mechanisms shown in the results. Results. The most common sources of stress in both genders were social and academic ones: death in the family, critical illness in the family, an accident of a person I love, unwanted pregnancy, lie by lose people, disagreement with parents, loss of a study year, crisis, uncertainty after graduation and partner’sinfidelity. The most frequently used mechanisms for controlling and overcoming stress were mostly social: talking with friends, listening to music, family support, frequent walks, socializing and going out, using the Internet, frequent sleep, intense physical activity, crying and relaxation. Statistically significant differences between the gender - female students demonstrated self-worth of higher intensity during the majority of stressful situations, as they use different stress coping mechanisms from their male students. Conclusion. The results obtained with regard to the assessment of stressors and the use of specific mechanisms for coping indicate the necessary additional education of students in this field in order to be more focused and open for free professional help, when necessary.
... With the rapid development of China's national economy, fire is becoming a major threat to life and property in urban and rural areas. Although electrical fire is one of the primary causes of most building fires in rural areas of China [1], to identify the fire cause is usually challenging due to the complex situation in fire scenes. In legal disputes, the rigorous proof and scientific way to found the fire source are always required. ...
Three aluminum wires with different melted mark, which were found inside a burned distribution board from the electrical fire debris in rural areas of Northeast China were characterized to determine the cause of fire. By visual and microstructure/metallographic analysis, one melted bead shows typical morphology (microstructure/characteristics) as a result of overheating or electric short circuit (ESC) arc beads which was identified as the most possible ignition source. The macro-/micro-structure of the metallic wire, the chemical composition of the beads surface and the state of the polymer insulating sheath combining the tension state of the electric wire provided solid evidence on the exposure temperature and time of each aluminum wire. Consequently, the fire source was identified. Therefore, the characterization on the macro-/micro-structure and chemical composition of metallic surface with scientific technique is greatly helpful in determining heating process of metallic parts and subsequently the cause of fire.
... Karter study [1] also shows that the risk of fire incidents in residential buildings is much more than other cases such that 83% of fire-related fatalities occurred in homes. As an example of such hazards in overpopulated societies, an official report of China Fire Services shows that about 40% of fire incidents occurred in residential buildings [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]. Because of the expected long life-span of existing buildings, the most reasonable strategy to minimize consequences of fire occurrences seems to be focusing on developing measures for existing and older buildings in large cities. ...
Fire effects can be one of the most harmful conditions that any building may
experience throughout its service life. Developing practical protection methods
and concepts against potential fire disasters in buildings has been an
important consideration in design of buildings in recent decades. Rapid developments
in technology have heightened the demand for new and innovative
fire protection systems in comparison with conventional and traditional
methods. Such a need for new technologies is in particular of greater importance
when it comes to existing buildings. Retrofitting an existing building
for fire safety is a greater challenge compared with designing a new
building using materials and components that have more desirable and superior
fire rating to begin with. Furthermore, strategies to design a new
building that includes state-of-the-art fire safety features are also different
from solutions that may be more suitable for retrofitting an existing building.
This paper presents a review of the literature concerning conventional
and new or innovative retrofitting methods for fire safety of buildings. Advantages
and disadvantages of different fire protection devices and methods
as available and understood from the literature are mentioned. Study of fire
safety systems shows that each has its drawbacks. Comparison of the results
shows that disadvantages of a solitary system for retrofitting against fire can
be improved by using a combination of several fire safety concepts or methods
simultaneously.
The vast majority of fire incidents are caused by human factors, leading to a consensus that the occurrence of individual fire incident is accidental, while many scholars believe that there is a certain statistical pattern behind the randomness of a large number of fire incidents. In this paper, the fire records in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2020 are utilized to construct a panel data model based on which two machine learning models including Random Forest model and BPNN model are trained and used to analyze the relationship between socio-economic multivariate factors and fire incidence/fire risk level. The fire incidence is predicted based on regression analysis based on machine learning models, while the fire risk level is predicted based on the classification capability of machine learning models. The results show that both the optimal RF model and BPNN model perform well in the regression task, with R2 values to be 0.81 and 0.67, respectively; and can perform better in the prediction of fire risk level, with accuracy to be 91% and 91%, respectively. The results also reveal that socio-economic factors such as the population factors and economic factors could have the greatest importance for fire incidence prediction. This study demonstrates a significant correlation between fire incidence and socio-economic multivariate data, and also provides an important reference for regional fire risk assessment and fire incident prevention.
Urban residential fires seriously threaten public safety, causing significant property damage and severely impacting urban sustainability. To enhance the understanding of urban residential fire risks, a framework that combines tree-based machine learning algorithms and resampling techniques is proposed to predict damage and casualties in residential building fires. All algorithms achieved similar results on the original dataset, with 86% and 93% accuracy and the highest average F1 scores of 61% and 51%, respectively. Various resampling techniques addressed the issue of data imbalance, with the combination of random undersampling and SMOTE achieving the best model performance, elevating the average F1 scores to 75% and 77%, representing improvements of 14% and 26% over the original dataset, respectively. Furthermore, the internal mechanisms of the model were explored using the explainable Shapley additive explanations, which identified the key features influencing model outputs. Additionally, the study revealed significant heterogeneity in different regions, sources of ignition, causes of fires, types of residences, locations of fire origin, and types of households. This research not only improves emergency response strategies for urban residential fires but also provides tailored fire safety policies to reduce risks in various urban environments effectively.
There is an interaction between public fire safety awareness and fire direct economic loss, while how to quantify public fire safety awareness is still a challenge. Driven by the rapid development of Internet networks and information technology, Internet search engine query data provides an opportunity for quantifying the level of public fire safety awareness. Based on the fire-related Baidu Search Volume (BSV) data, this paper investigates the relationship between public fire safety awareness and fire direct economic loss with an integration machine learning method. Firstly, the fire-related keywords selection framework is constructed based on the analysis of the fire safety demand generated at different responding stages of fire accidents. Then, the most important keywords associated with fire direct economic losses are identified by correlation analysis. Finally, four types of assessing models, including multiple regression model, principal component analysis model, vector auto-regression model, and artificial neural network model are developed to simulate the ability of fire-related keywords to assess fire direct economic losses. The results show that the fire-related keywords BSV data have a strong correlation with the fire direct economic loss. Meanwhile, BSV data presents a good applicability in evaluating the fire direct economic loss. The artificial neural network model presents the best assessment performance in this work. This research could contribute to quantifying the public awareness of fire safety, indirectly present the public fire safety behavior, and also provide a new solution for how to assess urban fire risk.
Copper-clad aluminum wires have a high risk of electrical fire, and welding marks are easily affected by factors such as high temperature and fire water in the actual fire. To accurately identify the overcurrent fault, an electrical fault simulator was used in this study to simulate the overcurrent fault condition of a copper-clad aluminum at a current of 52.5–105 A. Then the microstructure characteristics such as metallographic structure, welding hole elements, and so on under different treatment methods were also analyzed using the metallographic microscope and SEM/EDS. The results of the study are summarized as follows: (1) under the method of natural cooling, the metallographic structure of the welding mark were mainly columnar crystals and dendritic crystals with a few holes in it. And we found that the maximum particle size and average particle size have a quadratic function relationship with the current value; (2) under the water-cooling method, the welding mark was mainly columnar crystals with a large number of holes in them. At a current of 75 A, the welding mark holes consisted of Al and Cu elements, while at the rest of the current value, they consisted of Al, Cu, and O elements; (3) when the temperature was raised to 450 °C, the welding trace has different elements at different currents. At the temperature of 650 °C, a large number of equiaxed crystals appeared in the welding trace, with a few holes in which at a current at 105 A only. Our study has provided a basis for the investigation of electrical fire accidents and the technical identification of the causes.
In recent years, the fire safety problems in self-build housing in China’s vast rural areas have become increasingly prominent. We analyzed the interaction of causative factors and logical structure of self-build housing fire accidents (SBHFAs) to find their key causes and reduce their occurrence. Using the 24Model, 30 SBHFA investigation reports were analyzed, and 44 SBHFA causative factors and 97 causal relationship codes were obtained. The causality and centrality degree of causative factors were analyzed using the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method to obtain the causal attribute and importance of causative factors. An adversarial hierarchical topology model of causative factors was conducted using the adversarial interpretive structural modeling (AISM) method, and the causal hierarchical relationships were obtained. Using the Matrices Impacts Croises-Multiplication Appliance Classement (MICMAC) analysis, the causative factors’ dependency degree and driving force were calculated. Combining and comparing the results of DEMATEL, AISM, and MICMAC analyses, we found that the adversarial hierarchical topology model of causative factors was reasonable, and key direct causative factors, key transitional causative factors, and key root causative factors were mined. Controlling the key causative factors could effectively reduce the occurrence of SBHFAs and guide the fire safety management of self-build housings in rural areas of China.
Despite the numerous risks that high-rise buildings face, fire accidents happen most frequently. Studying fire accidents in high-rise buildings is crucial because they can result in harm to people’s health, fatalities, property damage, and pollution. The number of accidental fires in buildings is very large since it is difficult to isolate a single cause and all processes and control measures are not appropriately implemented. This paper proposes a fuzzy-bow tie approach to evaluating the risk of fire accidents by taking into account the various fire sources and effects. The fourteen-floor high-rise residential building is used as a case study for the proposed fuzzy bow tie approach. The fuzzy fault tree approach estimates that there is a 0.0968% risk of a fire accident occurring in that high-rise building, with a possibility for 9 out of 100 accidental fires annually. The fuzzy event tree model predicts that loss of life and loss of property are the most likely consequences of an accidental fire. Accordingly, mitigation strategies can be developed by building officials and fire safety practitioners.
Residential fires are a significant risk factor threatening the health and security of occupants. The purpose of this study was to develop a novel fire-safety product to help occupants safely and quickly evacuate from fire. Residential fire-resistant clothing with an alterable robe-coverall structure was developed according to a functional design procedure. The protection and ergonomic performance of the new fire-resistant clothing were verified by material selection and testing, flame manikin testing, and a simulated evacuation test. The results demonstrated that the fire-resistant clothing could provide essential thermal protection, inhalation protection, tear resistant, and visibility. Moreover, compared to current fire blankets, this fire-resistant clothing integrated the robe and coverall together, providing improved thermal protection and ergonomics, while decreasing skin burn percentage by 30.04% and allowing flexible leg movement.
In this paper, three types (typeⅠ, type Ⅱand type III) of polyethylene-insulated wires with copper core diameters of 6 mm, 8 mm and 10 mm and thickness of polyethylene of 2 mm respectively, were used to research the flame spread of double wires with spacing sizes of 0 mm,1 mm,2 mm,3 mm,5 mm,7 mm,10 mm,12 mm, 15 mm and 18 mm. The results showed that with the increase of spacing, the flame changed from “less propagating” to “quasi-intermittent merging” stage, to “continuous merging” stage, then to “intermittent merging” stage, and finally to “non-merging” stage. For type III of the largest Cu core diameter, the flame could not spread when s = 1 mm and 2 mm.After that, the same transition from"continuous merging” stage to “non-merging” stage was found. The flame width showed the similar trend with FSR for typeⅠand type Ⅱ, while for type III the correlation between flame width and FSR was not closely related. The mass loss rate and mass dripping rate showed the similar trends with FSR. The faster FSR, the larger mass loss and dripping rates. The “re-burning” phenomena were found during the process of flame spread with small spacing distances, which made the residual material PE ignite again, and the flame width increase.
The laboratory polyethylene wire with different core diameters of 3mm, 5mm, 6mm, 7mm, 8mm, 10mm and 12mm was used to study the flame spread characteristics.The flame spread could be divided into initial oscillation stage, stable oscillation stage and burn-out stage. With the increase of the copper core diameter, the flame width and flame area increased firstly and then decreased.For wires with intermediate copper core diameters of 6mm, 7mm, 8mm and 10mm, the relationship between flame area and core diameter was established as A∼dc, the total mass loss rate k with the copper core diameter dc followed as k∼dc, and the combustion mass loss rate and dripping mass loss rate gradually equaled to each other at stable oscillation stage. By analyzing the temperature field during the process of flame spread, the temperature gradient was almost same for diameters from 3mm to 10mm, which demonstrated the radiation heat would be influenced by flame height. Combined with the increased flame spread, the dominant conduction heat transfer mechanism was built. When the diameter was 12mm, the smaller conduction heat transfer, which illustrated the core material Cu played an cool effect on flame, thus the dominant heat transfer of Cu was changed from a heat source to a heat sink.
In order to conduct a thorough evaluation of fire situation in China in recent years, a comprehensive analysis is conducted in this paper of the fire statistics in China from 1997 to 2017, using four basic indexes: the number of fires, deaths, injuries and direct loss. In addition, the state of large-scale fires is summarized and the fire situation over these years is evaluated using the principal component analysis method. The characteristics of fire situation in China are explored, including the cause of fire, monthly frequency, the frequency of fires by the time of day and the situation of fire-fighting actions. Through cluster analysis, the regional characteristics of fire accidents in China is explored. According to the results, the fire situation in China showed a general trend of improvement, with the number of fire accidents and the amount of losses in decline. In this paper, the fire situation in China is described through the analysis of fire statistics. Such information is conducive to better understanding the impact of building fires in China, and to providing reference for the fire department to predict the future fire situation.
Electrical apparatuses are prone to arc, which generally causes a fire, even an explosion hazard, when a flammable gas mixture is present, especially during industrial processes. Terrible fire scenes are challenging for fire investigations. In this work, by performing a simultaneous thermal analysis test we simulated a fire environment and found that as the oxygen concentration decreased, the oxidation/exothermic peak temperature of ‘cause’ bead became higher, but the melting temperature was unaffected. Results indicated that the bead pattern underwent oxidation at approximately 831 °C, melting initiated at approximately 1060 °C, and the pattern then disappeared. The melted pattern grain changes were divided into three critical temperature stages: Approximately 600 °C, the onset temperature at which the melted pattern grains began to be equiaxed; approximately 831 °C, at which the grains were interspersed with oxygen-containing material; and 831–1060 °C, when the grains disappeared, which is a criterion for identifying electrical fires. However, the boundaries remained throughout the thermal environment process. Moreover, the bead pattern demonstrated three metallographic regions: Deep layer (Region I), the intermediate layer (Region Ⅱ), and surface layer (Region Ⅲ). Region I was the most thermally sensitive, in which equiaxed crystals first appeared. Region Ⅲ was the thermal reaction lag zone, in which the typical branching crystals finally disappeared, and Region Ⅱ was intermediate between Regions I and Ⅲ. The results may help fire investigators determine the fire scene temperature stages and provide support for fire evidence extraction.
Fires become one of the common challenges faced by smart cities. As one of the most efficient ways in the safety science field, risk assessment could determine the risk in a quantitative or qualitative way and recognize the threat. And Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) has gained a reputation for being powerful techniques for modeling complex systems where the variables are highly interlinked and have been widely used for quantitative risk assessment in different fields in recent years. This work is aimed at further exploring the application of Bayesian Belief Networks for smart city fire risk assessment using history statistics and sensor data. The dynamic urban fire risk assessment method, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), is described. Besides, fire risk associated factors are identified, thus a BBN model is constructed. Then a case study is presented to expound the calculation model. Both the results and discussion are given.
La dangerosité des défauts électriques et notamment des défauts d’arcs série dans les installations basse tension est connue depuis longtemps et représente une problématique d’actualité. La détection et la localisation de ces défauts constituent ainsi le sujet d’étude de cette thèse. Notons également, qu’à l’heure actuelle, aucun disjoncteur pour la détection des défauts d’arcs n’est équipé de la fonction localisation d’un arc sur la ligne électrique. Plusieurs méthodes de localisation des défauts d’arcs électriques séries ont été proposées dans le travail présenté. La première méthode est basée sur les paramètres d’impédance obtenus à partir des lois de Kirchhoff et ceci sur une ligne expérimentale de 49 m de longueur. La seconde méthode utilise la modélisation de ligne pour obtenir différents vecteurs de signatures utilisés pour entrainer un réseau de neurones. La troisième méthode par transformée en ondelettes est basée sur l’identification des ondes haute fréquence qui apparaissent en présence d’un défaut d’arc série. L’autre contribution majeure de cette thèse est la mise au point d’un algorithme performant de détection de la présence d’un défaut d’arc électrique par analyse du courant de ligne. L’algorithme est conçu pour détecter de manière fiable les défauts d'arc dans les modes de fonctionnement stationnaires et transitoires des appareils ménagers puis dans des configurations complexes de masquage de charges et d'appareils perturbateurs. L’algorithme repose sur l’analyse du courant de ligne par un filtre de Kalman associé à une logique de décision. La technique mise en œuvre, portant sur un seuillage adaptatif à base de logique floue (Fuzzy Logic), entraîne une réduction significative des faux déclenchements
In 2003, China enacted the Road Traffic Safety Law in an attempt to promote traffic safety. We employ a difference-in-differences strategy on province level data, where fire accidents are used as a control group for road accidents, to estimate the effects of the law on road accidents and casualties. Our findings suggest that while the law was successful in decreasing the number of accidents and casualties, the ratio of deaths to accidents and injuries to accidents increased. Exploring the potential channels, we find no evidence that “hit-and-kill” incentives, that is, incentives for motorists to kill the pedestrians that they hit due to China's peculiar personal injury compensation rules, drive the increase in death to accident ratio. We show that an increase in the severity of accidents could, in fact, be consistent with a model where all motorists drive more carefully after the reform, but have heterogeneous responses such that the decrease in accident probability is larger for safer than for riskier drivers.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors that motivate to start business in Latvia. This study analyses a sample of 209 business start-ups. In analysis there were included 19 motivating factors for business start-up (selected by findings in scientific literature) and other factors that can influence decision making on business start-up were researched. Authors used the following methods: analysis of scientific publications; statistical analysis of survey results (descriptive statistics analysis, cross tabulations, non-parametric statistical tests). The study results indicated that important motivating factors to start business were to make own decisions, to enjoy and to increase income. About 33% of starting entrepreneurs started own business for economic reasons. About 54% of starting entrepreneurs had manager experience and about 50% experience in the business sector that influenced they performance expectations.
The fire in Laerdalsoyri, Norway, on 18–19 January 2014, developed faster than the fire fighters could handle, and strong winds quickly spread the fire to neighbor houses and 150 m downwind to distant houses. 36 modern buildings and 4 historic buildings of cultural heritage were lost. The cold low relative humidity air in the deep valley dried the structures and resulted in rapid growth of fire and fire spread. This has triggered studies to understand as to how early the flashover is reached when fuel moisture content (FMC) in wood goes to low levels especially in winter when heating inhabited structures is a necessity. A study of flashover as a function of the FMC in the wood has been carried out by conducting experiments on approximate equivalent of ¼ ISO rooms in the laboratory. The relative humidity and temperature in the ambient air are also noted. It is observed that low FMC is the main factor that leads to early flashover. The temperatures rise very rapidly once flashover is reached with higher heat release and increased radiated heat. Hence, it can be said that lower humidity levels that tend to be the fact in winter can lead to fast development of fire. This has to be borne in mind, and necessary precautions are to be taken to control the development and spread of fire and reduce the risk of major fire accidents.
Introduction: Firefighters are workers who usually live with risks inherent with their profession. Objectives: To delve about the concept of perceived risk as a tool for managing occupational risk. Materials and methods: The model used for risk quantification was the psychometric paradigm. Thus, anonymous surveys were conducted at different fire stations. The questionnaire contained demographic questions, nine questions on various attributes of risk and a question about risk perception of the subject in general. Results: Statistical analysis showed two distinct groups in terms of their perception of risk. The first group is represented by members with a high perception of risk and the second one with low risk perception. Finally, it is showed that educational level was only a significant variable for perceived risk explaining. Conclusions: Results are discussed in terms of existing literature concluding that training workers is necessary to raise their perception of risk.
Australia invests significant resources to address the risk of fire in all its forms. This study asks the question: is the current investment strategy cost‐effective? This question was approached in two ways: first, through a cross‐sectional study of fire statistics from other developed countries and, second, through a structured expert judgment exercise. The former found no significant relationship between the level of investment and losses from fire, suggesting that other factors are responsible for the observed inter‐country variance in fire losses. All the respondents to the structured expert judgment exercise perceived no net economic benefit would be achieved from increasing investments in prevention and response and most indicated net benefits from reducing this investment. The results of the expert judgment analysis, when considered alongside the equivocal international comparisons and fire service efficiency gains achieved in some parts of England and Wales, raise doubts about whether the allocation of investments in mitigation and response in Australia is truly risk‐informed.
FIERAsystem is a computer model for evaluating fire protection systems in industrial buildings. The model has been developed as a tool to assist fire protection engineers, building officials, fire service personnel and researchers in performing fire safety engineering calculations, and can be used to conduct hazard and risk analyses, as well as to evaluate whether a selected design satisfies established fire safety objectives. While the model is primarily designed for use in warehouses and aircraft hangars, it can be modified for application to other industrial buildings. This paper describes the framework for FIERAsystem, along with its capabilities and flexibility. Individual models used to perform calculations are discussed, particularly those that calculate fire development and life hazard. A hazard analysis of an aircraft hangar is then described in detail, as an example of the types of calculations this model can perform. Methods used by the model to conduct risk assessments are also briefly described. FIERAsystem est un modèle informatique conçu pour évaluer les systèmes de sécurité-incendie dans les immeubles industriels. Le modèle est mis au point comme outil pour aider les ingénieurs en sécurité-incendie, les responsables des bâtiments, le personnel des services d'incendie et les chercheurs à effectuer les calculs de l'ingénierie de la sécurité-incendie, à effectuer des analyses des dangers et des risques et à déterminer si une conception donnée cadre ou non avec les objectifs arrêtés de la sécurité-incendie. Bien que le modèle soit conçu surtout pour les entrepôts et les hangars d'aérodromes, on peut le modifier et l'appliquer à d'autres immeubles industriels. Ce mémoire décrit le cadre du FIERAsystem, ainsi que ses capacités et sa souplesse. On décrit notamment des modèles particuliers servant à faire des calculs, surtout en rapport avec la propagation des incendies et le danger pour la vie. Ensuite, on présente une description détaillée de l'analyse des dangers qui peuvent se produire dans un hangar d'aérodrome, comme exemple des types de calculs que ce modèle peut permettre d'effectuer. On trouvera également une brève description des méthodes que le modèle emploie pour effectuer des analyses de risques. RES
This book arrives at just the right time to facilitate understanding of performance-based fire risk assessment in buildings - an integral part of the global shift in policy away from traditional prescriptive codes. Yung, an internationally recognised expert on the subject of fire risk assessment, introduces the basic principles and techniques that help the reader to understand the various methodologies that are currently in place or being proposed by different organisations. Through his illustration of basic principles and techniques he enables the reader to conduct their own fire risk assessments. He demonstrates how the probabilities of fire scenarios are assessed based on the probabilities of success and failure of fire protection measures that are in place. He also shows how the consequences of fire scenarios are assessed based on the intensity and speed of fire and smoke spread, the probability and speed of occupant response and evacuation, and the effectiveness and speed of fire department response and rescue efforts. Yung's clear and practical approach to this highly topical subject enables the reader to integrate the various tools available into a quantitative framework that can be used for decision making. He brings an invaluable resource to all those involved in fire engineering and risk assessment, including students, academics, building designers, fire protection engineers, structural engineers, regulators and risk analysts.
FIERAsystem is a computer model for evaluating fire protection systems in industrial buildings. The model has been developed as a tool to assist fire protection engineers, building officials, fire service personnel and researchers in performing fire safety engineering calculations, and can be used to conduct hazard and risk analyses, as well as to evaluate whether a selected design satisfies established fire safety objectives. While the model is primarily designed for use in warehouses and aircraft hangars, it can be modified for application to other industrial buildings. This paper describes the framework for FIERAsystem, along with its capabilities and flexibility. Individual models used to perform calculations are discussed, particularly those that calculate fire development and life hazard. A hazard analysis of an aircraft hangar is then described in detail, as an example of the types of calculations this model can perform. Methods used by the model to conduct risk assessments are also briefly described.
The risk assessment chapters in this section describe concepts and methods to be used in answering the three questions: What could happen? How bad would it be? How likely is it? This chapter in particular is intended to provide an overview of fire risk analysis as a whole, indicating how the subsequent chapters fit together and how a completed fire risk analysis connects to other evaluative and management activities. The purpose of this introductory chapter is threefold © Society of Fire Protection Engineers 2016. All rights reserved.
Through comparison analyses based on fire statistics of the U.S.A., the U.K., and Japan, characteristics of fire risk of these countries were examined especially from the viewpoint of life loss risk. It was found that each country has its own unique fire problems in some particular aspects, although there is also considerable similarity among these countries. Also, discussed was what causes the differences among fire death rates and fire death patterns for particular age groups among the countries. This paper concludes that further study on the basis of international collaboration is needed to make the answers to these questions more clear in detail.
Annual reports on fire losses in Canada and the United States are in part, report cards on the efficacy of fire safety provisions in our building and fire codes and on the efforts to reduce risk for the occupants of those buildings. This paper attempts to assess what recent fire-loss statistics indicate about how successful those efforts have been. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Many countries have introduced, or are planning to introduce in the near future, performance/objective-based codes. In a performance/objective-based code, the level of safety provided to the occupants in a building by a particular fire safety design will be assessed by the use of engineering analysis of fire development and occupant evacuation. Central to this performance-based approach is the use of suitable design fires that can characterize typical fire growth in a fire compartment. This paper gives a description of what features of design fires are needed and how they can help analyze fire hazards to the occupants in a building as a result of smoke movement, untenable condition in the stairs, and occupant response and evacuation.
Ignition frequencies and ignition frequencies per floor area were determined for different building categories in Finland as total groups and as a function of the floor area of the building. These frequencies are needed as input for risk analysis using performance based fire safety design. It was found that differences between building categories or location within country were so small that a universal curve for the whole country could be determined. For ignition frequency per floor area for small buildings a strong dependence on size is observed, but it remains approximately constant for larger buildings. Additionally periodical variations of ignition frequency of buildings by month and week of year, day of week, and time of day were determined. Historical review of the development of ignition frequency models was made. Some evaluation on the generality of the results was made based on the theoretical models.
Since the 1950s, the direct property damage due to fire has increased with the development of industrialization and urbanization in China. The number of fire casualties has come down significantly since the 1980s while fire incidents with high casualties has occurred occasionally. Research on fire safety science and technology and its application have advanced, encouraged by Government at all levels, the Fire Service Department of the Ministry of Public Security and all of society. In recent years, the fire situation in China has become relatively stable and an effective strength in fire research has been established, comprising the four Fire Research Institutes of the Ministry of Public Security, the State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, fire enterprises and other fire research institutes. Since the 1990s, research has been carried out on fire detection and alarm, fire suppression techniques, structural fire-resistance, fire prevention techniques, fire modeling, performance-based fire protection design, urban fire protection planning, fire-fighting and rescue, fire protection standardization, fire dynamics and the fundamentals of fire protection. In the next 5 years, research will be focused on the theory of fire dynamics; evaluation techniques for fire risk and fire and rescue services of urban areas; new techniques of fire suppression systems and equipment and their engineering application; modernization of fire department apparatus and equipment; techniques for evaluation and design of structural fire resistance; human behavior in fire; development of a fire database; fire protection engineering economics; and performance-based fire protection design.
Temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal analyses of structural fire incidents occurring in Toronto, Ontario, Canada from 2000 to 2006 are carried out. The aim of the study is to gather and analyze data on various causes of fires in order to determine the extent to which existing data can be used as a baseline to improve fire prevention and response activities at local levels. This research uses spatiotemporal techniques to illustrate how the patterns of structural fire incidents in Toronto vary with the time of the day, the day of the week, and the month of the year. The application of these techniques has the potential to help decision makers with proactive preventive measures over time and space in addition to improved resource allocations after an emergency has occurred. It is shown that significant differences exist with respect to fire causation over time and space.
The Netherlands is the most densely populated country of the European Union, which makes space very expensive. This leads to increasing complexity of the cities’ layout and other public spaces, together with a large number of people involved. Authorities would like to know whether new and innovative building designs ensure an appropriate level of safety of people in case of fire, before the accident happens, and to be prepared for the so-called “low probability–high consequences” accidents. Therefore, they need a tool to help them estimate the extent of a fire in a building, given any combination of possible conditions and any unexpected course of events during an emergency. This paper discusses the possibility of using Bayesian belief nets for this task. Using this approach, the people in charge can take decisions at different stages of the design process of a building regarding the location, the structure, the loading of the building, the types of fire protection systems inside the building, as well as the characteristics of the fire brigade that fights the possible fire. In the current study, usefulness of the approach is investigated using a small example. This will show the feasibility of the approach for the Netherlands situation and give authorities involved confidence that building a large comprehensive model would fulfil their needs for a support tool in the planning process. The effort to gather real data therefore was restricted as demonstration of fitness for purpose was the primary objective.
Statistical data over the past 24 years detailing the number of fires and building floor areas published by the Taiwan government was employed to determine the fire probability, frequency, and cycle for each building category. By applying a matrix calculation, the fire probability, frequency, cycle, and risk ratio for each functional area within a multi-purpose building were obtained. With assistance from the Taiwan government, the fire case investigation and statistical data for building fires were established. By adopting the risk ratio concept, the weight values for 20 fire safety assessment criteria and 4 fire safety strategies for a multi-purpose building were acquired to indicate the possible causes of fires and the quantitative extent of fire influence.
A survey of all building-fires in the canton of Berne for the period of 1986 to 1995 was performed by the ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Zürich) and the GVB (Gebäudeversicherung des Kantons Bern) to establish a statistical database for fire safety engineering. It contains data on fire loss to the building structure (not the contents) from nearly 40,000 fires reported to the GVB over that period and may provide valuable information for fire safety engineering
This study is the first relatively broad statistical survey utilising the statistical data collected in the national accident database, Pronto. In this work, based on the available statistical data, a general view of the anatomy of fires is established and valuable information relating to fire risks and quantitative methods for the risk-assessment of buildings presented. This work is a step forward in the field of risk-analysis-based fire safety design and overall a step towards a better understanding of the anatomy of fires. The use of statistical information is a good objective way of attempting to characterise fires. This study concentrates on ignition frequency, economic fire losses and fire department operation in the event of building-fires. Ignition frequency was derived as a function of total floor area for different building categories. The analysis showed that the variations of ignition frequency are dependent on initial floor area distributions of the buildings hit by fire and at risk. For engineering design purposes, the generalisation of the theory starting from the initial floor area distributions, leading to a sum of two power laws, was found suitable. The parameters and partial safety coefficients for the model were estimated for three building groups. The model is suitable for determining the ignition frequency of buildings with a total floor area of between 100 and 20 000 m2. The elements describing the fire department operation were analysed on the basis of statistical information. In the presented approach, the buildings in which fire safety depends completely on automatic extinguishing systems can be distinguished from those in which the fire department is able to arrive at the fire scene early enough to have a good chance of saving the building. The most important factor affecting the performance of the rescue force was found to be the travel time to the fire scene. Thus, to make the task easier for the fire department, special attention must be paid to rapid fire detection and locating of the fire seat. Delays in these actions lengthen the total response time and reduce significantly the chances of the fire department successfully intervening in the progress of the fire. Economic losses were considered as consequences of the fires. The analysis showed the dependency of loss and value-at-risk of the building on the floor area. Clear local peaks were detected for both the ignition frequency and fire losses. A more detailed analysis of residential buildings where the phenomenon was most apparent revealed that the peaks were located around the floor-area region where the dominant building type of the building stock, and thus the compartmentation manner, changed. With small values of the total floor area of the building, the rise of the loss was very steep, but levelled off to substantially slower growth with large values. A natural explanation for the behaviour is compartmentation. Both the ignition frequency and the fire losses should therefore be examined in relation to the size of the ignition compartment, which would be a significantly more appropriate descriptor than the total floor area of the building. Hence, it is essential that the information becomes available to the Finnish accident database, in which it is not at the moment included. The analysis shows that the type of building and compartmentation, rather than the material of the load-bearing member itself, was the factor having the greatest effect on the risk of fire. The use of the information gathered was demonstrated through a simple example case in which the fire risk was assessed using the time-dependent event-tree approach. This study concentrates on the utilisation of statistics to collect information and gain an understanding of the elements affecting fire risks in buildings. Many of the methods used are well known in other application areas; the available statistical data now offers the possibility of applying them in connection with fire-risk problems as well. In risk-analysis-based design, the presented approach is very useful and the methods can be used for fire-risk assessment of buildings. Nevertheless, this study should be considered the first part of a major research effort and further studies will be needed to improve the tentative models to obtain more detailed and reliable risk estimates. In this work a preliminary exploration is carried out and a good base for further research is established. VTT publications, ISSN 1455-0849; 537
China fire services 2011
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NFPA fire protection handbook
- R W Bukowski