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Groundwater-level trends and implications for sustainable water
use in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan
Thomas J. Mack
•
Michael P. Chornack
•
Mohammad R. Taher
Published online: 17 July 2013
Ó The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Abstract The Kabul Basin, which includes the city of
Kabul, Afghanistan, with a population of approximately 4
million, has several Afghan, United States, and interna-
tional military installations that depend on groundwater
resources for a potable water supply. This study examined
groundwater levels in the Kabul Basin from 2004 to 2012.
Groundwater levels have increased slightly in rural areas of
the Kabul Basin as a result of normal precipitation after the
drought of the early 2000s. However, groundwater levels
have decreased in the city of Kabul due to increasing water
use in an area with limited recharge. The rate of ground-
water-level decrease in the city is greater for the
2008–2012 period (1.5 meters per year (m/yr) on average)
than for the 2004–2008 period (0–0.7 m/yr on average).
The analysis, which is corroborated by groundwater-flow
modeling and a non-governmental organization decision-
support model, identified groundwater-level decreases and
associated implications for groundwater sustainability in
the city of Kabul. Military installations in the city of Kabul
(the Central Kabul subbasin) are likely to face water
management challenges resulting from long-term ground-
water sustainability concerns, such as the potential drying
of shallow water-supply wells. Installations in the northern
part of the Kabul Basin may have fewer issues with long-
term water sustainability. Groundwater-level monitoring
and groundwater-flow simulation can be valuable tools for
assessing groundwater management options to improve the
sustainability of water resources in the Kabul Basin.
Keywords Groundwater level Groundwater depletion
Water-level network Groundwater-flow model
Kabul, Afghanistan
1 Introduction
As of 2012, military installations in Afghanistan rely on
groundwater for a significant portion of their potable water
supply (Gellasch 2012). The Kabul Basin has several
Afghan, United States, and international military installa-
tions including the Bagram Airfield in the north and
Afghan National Army (ANA) and the International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) compounds in the city of
Kabul (Fig. 1). ISAF troops in the Kabul Basin total
approximately 25,000 (North Atlantic Treaty Organization
2013), and the number of Afghan troops is likely to be
twice that number. Although that number is relatively
small, compared to the approximately 4 million people in
the Kabul Basin, water use at installations in the densely
populated city of Kabul (Fig. 1) adds to existing stresses.
Detailed water usage numbers at military facilities were not
available to this study and may not exist for some facilities.
The estimated population growth in Afghanistan from 2000
to 2010 was about 37 %, much greater than the high
population growth rate of about 26 % for other least
developed countries for that same period (United Nations
2011). The Kabul Basin accounts for more than 10 % of
the population of Afghanistan, and people in the city and in
military installations in the basin depend solely on
groundwater for drinking water supplies. With a growing
population and with additional water demands for potential
T. J. Mack (&)
U.S. Geological Survey, Pembroke, NH, USA
e-mail: tjmack@usgs.gov
M. P. Chornack
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, USA
M. R. Taher
Afghanistan Geological Survey, Kabul, Afghanistan
123
Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467
DOI 10.1007/s10669-013-9455-4
mining activities in the region, the sustainability of water
resources in the Kabul Basin is of concern to water
resource managers (Banks and Soldal 2002; Uhl 2006).
Investigations by the U.S. Department of Defense Task
Force for Business and Stability Operations (TFBSO), the
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the Afghanistan
Geological Survey (AGS) indicate that copper minerals
immediately south of the Kabul Basin (Fig. 1) represent a
potential world-class deposit that may provide considerable
economic opportunity to Afghanistan (Peters et al. 2011).
Water is needed, however, not only to process copper ore,
but also to supply the associated population that will be
Fig. 1 Population in the Kabul
Basin, Afghanistan, in 2011
estimated from remotely sensed
data
458 Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467
123
needed to accompany a developing mining economy.
Understanding the water resources of the Kabul Basin is
necessary for operation of the military installations,
domestic needs, and commercial activities necessary for
the rebuilding of Afghanistan. In this paper, analysis of
recently (2008–2012) compiled groundwater-level trend
data for the Kabul Basin supports findings of implications
for sustainable water use provided by a decision-support
model (World Bank 2010) and a groundwater-flow model
(Mack et al. 2010).
1.1 Site description
The Kabul Basin is the valley formed by the Paghman
Mountains to the west and the Kohe Safi Mountains to the
east of the city of Kabul (Fig. 1) and extends about 40 km
north of the city. The Kabul Basin can be divided into
several subbasins that are separated by bedrock ridges and
river drainage divides (Fig. 1). The city of Kabul is pri-
marily in the Central Kabul subbasin, but continued growth
has caused the city to expand into the Paghman-Upper
Kabul and Logar subbasins. The Paghman-Upper Kabul,
Central Kabul, Deh Sabz, and Logar subbasins make up the
southern part of the Kabul Basin (Fig. 1).
The central plains of the subbasins are local depositional
centers for sediments derived from the surrounding surfi-
cial deposits and bedrock outcrops. Alluvial fans have
developed on the flanks of the mountains surrounding the
subbasins and on the interbasin ridges. Deposits in the
central plains (Fig. 2) include alluvium and loess, typically
less than 80 meters (m) thick, that overlie semi-consoli-
dated conglomeritic sediments, as much as 1,000 m thick
(Homilius 1969). The primary aquifer in the Kabul Basin is
a surficial sedimentary aquifer that occupies the bottom of
the basin and subbasins (Fig. 2). The underlying lower
semi-consolidated conglomeritic sediments are a second-
ary, less-used aquifer. Carbon-14 analyses of groundwater
by this study and Mack et al. (2010) indicate that
groundwater at the base of the upper aquifer is about
1,000 years old and that groundwater at the top of the
lower or secondary aquifer (Fig. 2) is 2,800 years old. It is
estimated that groundwater deeper in the secondary aquifer
is likely many thousands of years old (Mack et al. 2010).
The sedimentary and fractured metamorphic and crystal-
line bedrock of the surrounding mountains and interbasin
ridges (Lindsay et al. 2005; Bohannon and Turner 2007;
Bohannon 2010) is the least-used aquifer in the Kabul
Basin. Studies that have investigated aquifers in the
southern Kabul Basin include those by Bo
¨
ckh (1971),
Myslil et al. (1982), Broshears et al. (2005), Japan Inter-
national Cooperation Agency (2007), Lashkaripour and
Hussaini (2008), and Houben et al. (2009).
Climate recordkeeping in Afghanistan ceased around
1980, and few climatic data are available for Kabul until
2003 or later. The mean annual precipitation from 1956 to
1983 was estimated to be 312 mm (mm; World Meteoro-
logical Organization 2004). During the late 1990s, there
were several years with little or no precipitation, and in 2001,
only 175 mm of precipitation was reported for Kabul
(International Water Management Institute 2002). Precipi-
tation measured at the Kabul Airport (Fig. 3) between water
years 2004 and 2011 (Afghan water years are September
through August) was high in 2005 and 2007, low in 2004 and
2008, and average (about 300 mm) in other years. Since
2006, a countrywide climatic monitoring and reporting effort
has been active under the Agromet Project, a joint effort by
the USGS and Afghanistan’s Ministry of Agriculture,
Irrigation and Livestock and the Meteorological Authority
of the Ministry of Transport (http://afghanistan.cr.
usgs.gov/agro). This effort provides not only valuable
information for drought monitoring and flood forecasting but
maintaining this program will provide long-term climatic
data necessary to assess the sustainability of Afghanistan’s
water supply.
Based on the limited data available, the Kabul Basin has
a semi-arid climate where evaporation rates are high rela-
tive to annual total precipitation. Net groundwater recharge
from direct precipitation in the Kabul Basin is generally
near zero on an annual basis. Detailed information on the
groundwater flow, including analysis of historical stream-
flow measurements and isotopic and chemical analyses,
was used to develop a groundwater-flow model to assess
inflows from river leakage and irrigated areas in the Kabul
Basin (Mack et al. 2010). Irrigation provides an increased
surface area for water to infiltrate to the underlying aquifer.
Although irrigation increases evapotranspiration water
losses in the basin, it also captures water that would
otherwise flow out of the basin. The Panjshir, Shomali, and
Logar subbasins are less-populated, agricultural areas of
the Kabul Basin (Fig. 1) that are largely irrigated from
traditional surface water diversions. Groundwater-flow
simulations of the Kabul Basin accounted for leakage from
rivers and from irrigated areas, and incorporated isotopic
and chemical analysis of ground and surface water; Mack
et al. (2010) concluded that recharge to the aquifer is pri-
marily through leakage from rivers and irrigation.
1.2 Water use and wells
Drinking water in the Kabul Basin is generally supplied by
shallow (less than 30-m deep) family-owned or community
groundwater wells, although there are some municipal-
supply wells and associated distribution systems in urban
areas, there is no management of groundwater resources.
Thousands of shallow wells have been installed by non-
Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467 459
123
governmental organizations (NGOs) in the surficial sedi-
mentary aquifer in the Kabul Basin (Safi and Vijselaar
2007), and there are probably many more undocumented
wells, whereas few wells have been completed in the lower
semi-consolidated aquifer. For example, between 1997 and
2005, approximately 1,500 shallow-supply wells, with a
Fig. 2 Generalized surficial geology and cross section of the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan
460 Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467
123
median depth of 22 m, were installed by NGOs in the
Kabul Basin. About 1,000 of these wells are in three
southern subbasins that encompass the city of Kabul (Safi
and Vijselaar 2007). Of the wells with a reported status,
about 25 % in the city of Kabul and about 20 % in the
greater Kabul Basin were reported to be dry or inoperative.
The widespread decreases in water levels measured in rural
areas of the Kabul Basin in the early and middle 2000s may
be more a product of long-term drought than increased
water use.
Banks and Soldal (2002) reported groundwater-level
decreases of 4–6 m in Kabul during the drought period of
1998–2002 and as much as 10 m in some areas. Ground-
water-level decreases of 6–7 m were reported between the
1960s and early 2000s for some parts of the city (Houben
et al. 2009). Safi (2005) reports that water levels in the sur-
ficial sedimentary aquifer in the city of Kabul had decreased
by about 10 m between 1982 and 2005 because of increased
water use. The water-level decreases noted by these studies
in the city of Kabul, in the early to mid 2000s, likely represent
both the widespread effect of drought in the Kabul Basin and
locally the effects of increased water use.
There are few population data for Afghanistan and no
accurate census data. However, Afghanistan’s Central
Statistics Office estimated that the city of Kabul had a
population of 720,000 in 1978 (Montreal Engineering
Company 1978), which has now (2012) increased to about
4 million. A population distribution for the country (Fig. 1)
is provided by imagery-derived estimates determined from
the LandScan project (Oak Ridge National Laboratory
2012). Although droughts have caused periodic widespread
groundwater-level decreases in the Kabul Basin and else-
where in Afghanistan, continued decreases in the city of
Kabul are likely caused by increased groundwater with-
drawals for an increasing population. The United Nations
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
(UNESCAP 2008) estimated per capita water consumption
in Afghanistan to be less than half that of other Central and
West Asian countries. With an improving standard of
living and a projected population of 9 million by 2057, an
estimated sixfold water consumption increase in the Kabul
Basin was simulated in the groundwater-flow model
described by Mack et al. (2010). The World Bank (2010)
in planning scenarios from a decision-support model of the
basin also projected increasing per capita water use,
associated with an improving standard of living and a
population of 6–8 million by 2020. New water uses asso-
ciated with potential mining activities along with associ-
ated economic growth are expected to contribute to the
increased demand for water in the Kabul Basin (World
Bank 2010).
2 Groundwater-level monitoring
The AGS has operated a monthly water-level monitoring
network of about 70 wells (Fig. 4) since 2004 (Akbari et al.
2007). The AGS water-level studies in the Kabul Basin
concentrated on wells that ranged in depth from 4.9 to
30 m that were equipped with hand pumps and electric
pumps. The Danish Committee for Aid to Afghan Refugees
(DACAAR) has monitored 10 wells in the Kabul Basin for
about the same period (Danish Committee for Aid to
Afghan Refugees 2011).
Groundwater levels in some parts of the Kabul Basin
had decreased substantially as a result of periods of below-
average precipitation and increased water use during the
2000s (Mack et al. 2010). Yet, in the late 2000s, water
levels in rural areas of the Kabul Basin increased in
response to increased precipitation (Fig. 3). Currently
(2012), the groundwater levels in some areas of the Kabul
Basin are increasing (decreasing depth to water), such as at
AGS monitoring well 20 in the Shomali subbasin in
northern Kabul Basin (Fig. 5). Otherwise, groundwater-
level decreases (increasing depth to water) in the city
appear to be continuing (Fig. 5). At AGS monitoring well
167 in the Central Kabul subbasin (Fig. 4), decreases of
about 3 m were recorded from 2004 to 2007 and about
15 m from 2008 to 2012 (Fig. 5).
Trends in groundwater levels from 2004 to 2012 in the
Kabul Basin were assessed at 66 wells measured by AGS
and 10 wells measured by DACAAR. The Seasonal
Kendall test (Hirsch and Slack 1984
; Helsel et al. 2006)
was used to determine whether trends were evident as
indicated by a significant slope in groundwater levels over
time. The slopes of trends (Fig. 6) indicate where
groundwater levels are significantly increasing (negative
slope), show no trend (slopes near zero), or groundwater
levels are decreasing (positive slope). From 2004 to 2012,
Fig. 3 Annual precipitation at the Kabul Airport, Afghanistan,
between 2004 and 2011
Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467 461
123
the median rate of groundwater-level increase, detected in
16 of 69 monitoring wells, was 0.31 m/yr. Groundwater-
level increases were greater near streams in the northern
Kabul Basin. Between 2004 and 2012, the median rate of
groundwater-level decrease measured in 19 of 69 moni-
toring wells was 0.76 m/yr—about twice the rate of
median water-level increase. Figure 6 indicates that
groundwater-level decreases are primarily in the city of
Kabul. Decreases are greatest farther from recharge
sources such as rivers or large mountain fronts.
The trend of groundwater-level decreases in the city of
Kabul appears to be greater from 2008 to 2012, the latter
half of the period of record (Fig. 5). Changes in the trend in
groundwater level with time were assessed at 19 monitoring
Fig. 4 The monitoring well
network in the Kabul Basin,
Afghanistan
462 Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467
123
wells in the city by separating the data for the period of
record into two groups: start of record (generally the fall of
2004) to August 2008 and September 2008 to 2012
(Table 1). For the 2004 to 2008 period, most wells (14)
indicated no trend, while four wells had an average rate of
groundwater-level decrease of 0.7 m/yr (with a maximum
rate of 0.9 m/yr). Well 208, adjacent to the Kabul River, had
a rate of groundwater-level increase of 2 m/yr (Fig. 7;
Table 1). However, for the 2008–2012 period, all but three
wells had a greater rate of groundwater-level decrease
(Fig. 7; Table 1). Overall, the rate of groundwater-level
decrease became more pronounced between the earlier and
later period of record. The average rate of decrease for the
2008–2012 period was 1.5 m/yr with rates of decrease of
more than 4 m/yr in the northwestern area of the city
(Fig. 7).
The Central Kabul subbasin area of the Kabul Basin,
which contains the main part of the city of Kabul and is
densely populated, is removed from the primary sources of
recharge in the basin, river and irrigation leakage, and
mountain-front recharge, by distance and topography
(Fig. 7). Additionally, the unconsolidated sediments in the
northern area of the Central Kabul subbasin are isolated
from recharge by Kabul River leakage by a conglomerate
ridge (between wells 170 and 172 in Fig. 7). All of these
factors contribute to the trend of groundwater-level
decreases in the city of Kabul.
3 Groundwater sustainability in the Kabul Basin
The regional groundwater-level trend in the Kabul Basin,
outside the city of Kabul, indicates no change to slight
increases in groundwater levels since the drought of the
early 2000s. However, groundwater levels in the city of
Kabul have decreased considerably since the early 2000s as
a result of increasing population and associated ground-
water use. Over the past 4 years (2008–2012), the rate of
groundwater-level decrease has accelerated in the city of
Kabul to more than 4 m/yr in some areas. The mean depth
of NGO installed community-supply wells in the Kabul
Basin is about 22 m, and the mean static (non-pumped)
depth to water in such wells is about 12 m. In such wells,
this leaves very little available water for pumping or to
accommodate seasonal fluctuations in water levels.
Although hydrologic, water use, and population data are
sparse in the Kabul Basin, the water use by military
installations, with an estimated total population of 75,000
in the Kabul Basin, is likely to be small relative to that of
the general population of 4 million in the basin. Detailed
records for groundwater withdrawals at military installa-
tions were not available to this study.
Most of the recharge in the Kabul Basin is from
surface water leakage, either by direct infiltration of
river water or by infiltration of river water diverted on
to irrigated areas. The sustainability of groundwater
supplies is greater in northernareasoftheKabulBasin
due to higher recharge from surface water leakage from
streams and large irrigated areas, and from mountain-
front recharge. With the exception of limited recharge
from leakage from the Kabul River, most of the city of
Kabul is farther from these sources of recharge, which
means the potential sustainability of groundwater water
supplies in the city is uncertain. The northwestern part
of the city of Kabul (Fig. 7), the western part of the
Central Kabul subbasin, is particularly susceptible, as
conglomerate ridges may form a barrier to groundwater
flow in shallow unconsolidated sediments recharged
from Kabul River leakage. Military installations in the
city of Kabul are primarily south of the conglomerate
ridge and may be better connected hydraulically to
sources of recharge from the Kabul and Logar Rivers.
However, installations in the Central Kabul subbasin
north of the conglomerate ridge, such as those at the
Kabul International Airport, areinanareathatlacksthe
recharge necessary for sustainability of groundwater
supplies, as evidenced from decreased groundwater
levels—a condition exacerbatedbyinterferencefrom
Fig. 5 Monthly depth to water at Afghanistan Geological Survey
wells a 20 and b 167 from September 2004 to 2012 in the Kabul
Basin, Afghanistan
Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467 463
123
multiple withdrawal wells in close proximity to one
another. Groundwater levels can be expected to undergo
further decreases without regional water resource man-
agement including careful siting of new wells and the
evaluation of increased withdrawals.
Based on groundwater-flow simulations of projected
increased water use in the city of Kabul, it is estimated that
about 40 % of existing wells in the surficial sedimentary
aquifer may become inoperable by 2057 (Mack et al.
2010). Decreasing groundwater levels have been reported
in the city of Kabul for several decades; however, long-
term water-level data are not available to confirm this
trend. Although only an 8-year groundwater-level record
was available and continued monitoring is needed, analysis
Fig. 6 Groundwater-level
trends from 2004 to 2012 in the
Kabul Basin, Afghanistan
464 Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467
123
of trends from 2004 to 2012 appears consistent with the
regional groundwater model analyses (Fig. 7) and implies
that current and increased rates of groundwater withdrawal
are not sustainable in the Central Kabul subbasin area of
the city of Kabul. Likewise, a World Bank (2010) scoping
report on development in the Kabul Basin finds that a
combination of new water storage projects (dams) and a
conveyance link to groundwater from the Panjsher subba-
sin would be needed to support population growth and the
Aynak mining project. Water balance estimates, based on
historical river flows (Mack et al. 2010), indicate that the
northern Kabul subbasins (Panjsher and Shomali) have 5
times the total inflows of the southern Kabul basins
(Central Kabul, Paghman and Upper Kabul, and Logar),
which supports the scoping report plan.
The potential development of mineral resources near
the city of Kabul will likely increase the demand for water
resources in the city as well; this study identifies settings
such as small basins isolated from recharge sources, where
groundwater levels may be most affected by withdrawals.
Groundwater in the lower semi-consolidated aquifer may
support additional withdrawals to help meet future water
needs, and groundwater-flow simulation can be a useful
tool for assessing the sustainability of groundwater man-
agement options (Mack et al. 2010). Assessment of the
sustainability of groundwater at military installations in
the Kabul Basin needs careful evaluation of the placement
and use of new withdrawal wells—particularly with
respect to existing water supplies for the surrounding
communities. Sustainable use of water in the Kabul Basin
will likely require regional management strategies that
include consideration of the use of both surface water
storage and groundwater resources. Continued climate and
groundwater-level monitoring, and establishment of a
surface water monitoring network, are needed for assess-
ment of water resources sustainability and informed
resource decision-making. However, given current (2012)
security issues in Afghanistan, resource monitoring
activities are difficult and management may be equally
challenging.
Table 1 Groundwater-level trends, from 2004 to 2012, at Afghanistan Geological Survey monitoring wells in the city of Kabul, Afghanistan
2004–2012 2004 to August 2008 September 2008–2012
Monitoring
well identifier
Correlation
coefficient
P value Slope Trend
(m/yr)
Correlation
coefficient
P value Slope Trend
(m/yr)
Correlation
coefficient
P value Slope Trend
(m/yr)
2 0.95 0.00 0.79 0.79 1.00 0.00 0.47 0.47 0.86 0.00 0.64 0.64
64 0.45 0.00 0.33 0.33 -0.52 0.07 -0.18 * 0.79 0.00 1.10 1.10
65 0.83 0.00 1.62 1.62 -0.25 0.74 -0.40 * 0.93 0.00 3.26 3.26
124 0.40 0.01 0.16 0.16 -0.18 0.60 -0.17 * 0.57 0.02 0.56 0.56
127 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 1.00 -0.02 * 0.71 0.00 0.86 0.86
129 0.55 0.00 0.35 0.35 -0.22 0.55 -0.14 * 0.79 0.00 1.00 1.00
133 0.42 0.00 0.21 0.21 -0.20 0.51 -0.14 * 0.79 0.00 0.79 0.79
153 -0.16 0.30 -0.28 * -0.28 0.33 -0.87 * 0.29 0.28 0.74 *
157 0.24 0.11 0.16 * -0.52 0.05 -0.20 * 0.71 0.00 0.79 0.79
163 -0.32 0.25 -0.30 * -0.52 0.07 -0.38 * ** ** ** **
167 1.00 0.00 1.77 1.77 1.00 0.00 0.92 0.92 1.00 0.00 3.37 3.37
168 0.98 0.00 1.27 1.27 0.92 0.00 0.87 0.87 1.00 0.00 1.88 1.88
170 0.83 0.00 1.13 1.13 0.64 0.02 0.39 0.39 0.71 0.00 1.76 1.76
172 0.55 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.00 1.00 0.00 * 0.71 0.00 0.69 0.69
173 0.82 0.00 0.76 0.76 0.44 0.10 0.28 * 0.93 0.00 1.37 1.37
208 -0.47 0.00 -0.61 -0.61 -0.89 0.00 -1.94 -1.94 -0.07 0.88 -0.12 *
210 0.20 0.23 0.14 * -0.33 0.37 -0.14 * 0.61 0.01 0.46 0.46
219 0.65 0.00 2.40 2.40 0.44 0.10 2.26 * 0.86 0.00 4.52 4.52
220 0.36 0.04 1.65 1.65 -0.25 0.74 -
1.38 * 0.43 0.09 2.61 *
m meter, yr year, - negative indicates a groundwater-level increase
* Not significant at a P value of 0.05
** Insufficient data to calculate trend
Environ Syst Decis (2013) 33:457–467 465
123
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