Article

The implications of a changing climate for buildings

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Abstract

With a growing global concern about climate change, the building industry is facing the question of how predicted changes in climate will impact on the performance of buildings around the world. This is resulting in a fast-growing field of research that focuses on the adaptation and resilience of buildings to a changing climate. This review paper sets the scene for a special issue of Building and Environment on this subject. It discusses the relationship between climate change and buildings and the emerging body of knowledge on the subject, as well as classifying and summarizing the contributions to this special issue.

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... A building's lifetime is roughly 50-100 plus years on average while it is anticipated that the climate will change extensively over this time. Therefore, the successful performance of buildings depends on the present building design in the current and the future climate (Wilde and Coley, 2012;Chalmers, 2014). Possible climate change effects on buildings are generally classified into four major categories including effects on building structures (generated from natural disasters, e.g. ...
... poor performance of insulation, frost-resistance, UV-resistance, etc.); and indoor air quality/energy use (e.g. increased indoor temperatures and humidity levels) (Wilby, 2007;Wilde and Coley, 2012;Andrić et al., 2019). ...
... Climate change implications for buildings(Wilde and Coley, 2012). ...
Conference Paper
Climate change is one of the major issues facing all countries and calls for a top-priority universal response from all sectors. The building sector plays a significant role in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Researchers have aimed to assess the building sector's knowledge, development, technology in transiting to a low carbon built environment, and the awareness and capacity to adjust to climate change impacts. This paper explores the climate change implications for the New Zealand's building sector and examine how the sector currently adapts to climate change, using a literature review. Initial findings suggest that changes in temperature and extreme weather events are the key factors affecting the building sector, and adaptation actions are occurring predominantly at a city and neighbourhood level rather than the individual building level. More climate change adaptation actions needed require not only an urgent, joined-up and effective response across all levels of government but also industry engagement. The building sector should act in both minimising the climate change effects on buildings and reducing greenhouse gas emissions at the individual building level. Future in-depth research should emphasise more on the future actions to mitigate climate change effects for the entire building stock.
... A building's lifetime is roughly 50-100 plus years on average while it is anticipated that the climate will change extensively over this time. Therefore, the successful performance of buildings depends on the present building design in the current and the future climate (Wilde and Coley, 2012;Chalmers, 2014). Possible climate change effects on buildings are generally classified into four major categories including effects on building structures (generated from natural disasters, e.g. ...
... poor performance of insulation, frost-resistance, UV-resistance, etc.); and indoor air quality/energy use (e.g. increased indoor temperatures and humidity levels) (Wilby, 2007;Wilde and Coley, 2012;Andrić et al., 2019). ...
... Climate change implications for buildings(Wilde and Coley, 2012). ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Climate change is one of the major issues facing all countries and calls for a top-priority universal response from all sectors. The building sector plays a significant role in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Researchers have aimed to assess the building sector's knowledge, development, technology in transiting to a low carbon built environment, and the awareness and capacity to adjust to climate change impacts. This paper explores the climate change implications for the New Zealand's building sector and examine how the sector currently adapts to climate change, using a literature review. Initial findings suggest that changes in temperature and extreme weather events are the key factors affecting the building sector, and adaptation actions are occurring predominantly at a city and neighbourhood level rather than the individual building level. More climate change adaptation actions needed require not only an urgent, joined-up and effective response across all levels of government but also industry engagement. The building sector should act in both minimising the climate change effects on buildings and reducing greenhouse gas emissions at the individual building level. Future in-depth research should emphasise more on the future actions to mitigate climate change effects for the entire building stock.
... There is abundant evidence to suggest that global warming is the main contributor to the increase in climatic change [4] and it has an adverse effect on the built environment as it will directly affect the cooling and heating demand of the buildings. The most recent decade (2010-2019) has been on average 0.9 • C warmer across the UK than the period 1961-1990, with 2019 being 1.1 • C above the 1961-1990 long-term average [5]. ...
... As for 2019, it was the sixth consecutive year with fewer frosts than average, and it was one of the least snowy years on record. The year 2019 was most remarkable for setting four UK high-temperature records [5], including the following: The building construction sector produces almost 30% of CO 2 emissions in the atmosphere and at least 60% of these are due to the use of the building during its lifetime, which shows the importance of the built environment in global warming and climate change [4]. The UK building sector accounts for approximately 3% of total electricity use and the UK supermarkets and similar organisations are responsible for 1% of the total UK GHG emissions [6]. ...
Article
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Citation: Hasan, A.; Bahadori-Jahromi, A.; Mylona, A.; Ferri, M.; Tahayori, H. Investigating the Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on UK Supermarket Building Performance. Sustainability 2021, 13, 33. https://dx.
... We reviewed most studies investigating relationships among "climate change" and "thermal heat stress" through urban livability [12] for short-term and long-term durations. Most of the future weather files used to predict the impacts of climate change are performed on building performance; we cited the most relevant works on this that have been published [8,[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. ...
... Furthermore, the implemented correction factors, A, B, C, D, E and F, are named for the regression equation of the prediction's equation. All the previous regression equations need to be formulated, such as Equations (12)- (17). Thus, the formulas of the correction factors were extracted below: ...
Article
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Climate change and expected weather patterns in the long-term threaten the livelihood inside oases settlements in arid lands, particularly under the recurring heat waves during the harsh months. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the outdoor thermal comfort within a multifamily housing neighborhood that is considered the most common residential archetype in Algerian Sahara, under extreme weather conditions in the summer season, in the long-term. It fo-cuses on assessing the outdoor thermal comfort in the long-term, based on the Perceived Temperature index (PT), using simulation software ENVI-met and calculation model RayMan. Three different stations in situ were conducted and combined with TMY weather datasets for 2020 and the IPCC future projections: A1B, A2, B1 for 2050, and 2080. The results are performed from two different perspectives: to investigate how heat stress evolution undergoes climate change from 2020 till 2080; and for the development of a mathematical algorithm to predict the outdoor thermal comfort values in short-term, medium-term and long-term durations. The results indicate a gradual increase in PT index values, starting from 2020 and progressively elevated to 2080 during the summer season, which refers to an extreme thermal heat-stress level with differences in PT index averages between 2020 and 2050 (+5.9 °C), and 2080 (+7.7 °C), meaning no comfortable thermal stress zone expected during 2080. This study gives urban climate researchers, architects, designers and urban planners several insights into predicted climate circumstances and their impacts on outdoor thermal comfort for the long-term under extreme weather conditions, in order to take preventive measures for the cities' planning in the arid regions.
... Disruptions are increasingly presented by unexpected phenomena outside or inside the building [60]. The rate and pace of disturbances that the built environment faces have been accelerating significantly over the past three decades [68]. ...
... Disruptions are shocks or events with an origin, a nature, an incidence, a scale, and duration. Therefore, we define disruptions in buildings as shocks that degrade the indoor environment and require resilient cooling strategies and technologies to maintain it [60]. ...
Article
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The concept of climate resilience has gained extensive international attention during the last few years and is now seen as the future target for building cooling design. However, before being fully implemented in building design, the concept requires a clear and consistent definition and a commonly agreed framework of key concepts. The most critical issues that should be given special attention before developing a new definition for resilient cooling of buildings are (1) the disruptions or the associated climatic shocks to protect against, (2) the scale of the built domain, (3) the timeline of resilience, (4) the events of disruption, (5) the stages of resilience, (6) the indoor climate limits and critical comfort conditions, and (7) the influencing factors of resilient cooling of buildings. This paper focuses on a scoping review of the most of the existing resilience definitions and the various approaches, found in 90 documents, towards possible resilient buildings. In conclusion, the paper suggests a definition and a set of criteria —vulnerability, resistance, robustness, and recoverability— that can help to develop intrinsic performance-driven indicators and functions of passive and active cooling solutions in buildings against two disruptors of indoor thermal environmental quality—heat waves and power outages.
... The final energy use of buildings generated 32% of the total global energy use and 19% of energy-related GHG emissions in 2010 [3]. CC's impact on buildings is also significant; it is expected to result in system capacity mismatch, overloading, inefficiency and malfunctioning of building systems [4,5]. Moreover, the increasing temperatures will result in an increase in space cooling demand and a drastic growth in the need for air conditioning [6]. ...
... CC has consequences for building occupants such as thermal discomfort, illness, mortality, loss of productivity and performance. These problems result in a feedback loop where an increase in building emissions contributes to further anthropogenic CC [4]. ...
Article
Climate change (CC) and urban heat island (UHI) are important environmental forces that have serious consequences for the existing buildings, such as increased resource consumption and environmental footprint, adverse human health effects and reduced occupant comfort. In this context, educational buildings represent a critical category amongst other building typologies, due to their high-energy use, high occupant density, atypical daily/annual occupancy patterns, and their occupants’ high vulnerability to heat. Poor indoor conditions can reduce the health and productivity of students and teachers, worsen learning performance and reduce attendance. Retrofitting educational buildings is an effective solution to tackle this challenge. This study investigates the impact of CC&UHI on educational building performance and demonstrates the effectiveness of passive retrofit scenarios targeting CC&UHI mitigation and adaptation. These investigations are based on a systematic approach that consists of (i) the generation and analyses of CC&UHI-modified weather datasets, and (ii) simulation-based comparative analyses of the as-is building and various retrofit scenarios. An existing secondary school building in Ankara, Turkey is selected as a case study for evaluations of the selected performance indicators including energy use, global warming potential (GWP) and thermal comfort. Obtained results indicate that total energy consumption can be reduced up to 50% with retrofit, whereas possible reductions in indoor discomfort are even more pronounced, underlining the significance of selecting the optimal combination of passive measures for maximum impact towards the adaptation of the existing educational buildings to the changes in climatic conditions.
... Another emerging problem, still not considered in climate zone definition, is the urban heat island phenomenon which already affects more than 400 cities [16]. When considering the ongoing climate change and its potential impacts on building energy efficiency in terms of heating and cooling loads and therefore on greenhouse gas emissions, climatic zoning is getting more importance especially in the 21st century [17,18]. For that reason, there is a rising necessity to investigate and in some cases re-verify the current definitions of national climatic zones. ...
... The sum of the membership degrees to all clusters for each city has to be equal to 1 according to Eq. (19). Fuzzy clustering is provided through an iterative optimization of the objective function shown in Eq. (18), by updating the fuzzy partition matrix u ij and the cluster centers v i defined in Eqs. (20) and (21) [41]. ...
Article
Classification of climatic zones is required for building thermal regulation. In this context, a novel approach based on thermoeconomic analysis is proposed to reclassify climatic zones of Turkey. The classification is carried out by accounting different climatic-built parameters, namely thermal insulation, main wall component, fuel type, as well as heating and cooling degree-days (HDD and CDD). With this aim, 80 provinces of Turkey are reclassified into 5 zones based on fuzzy c-means clustering method regarding 27 different optimum insulation thickness attributes calculated for each city. The results showed that compared to the current national thermal zones, based only on HDD values, 16 out of 80 provinces shift to a new category, all of which correspond to a higher zone indicating the requirement of a thicker insulation layer. The results are presented with membership degrees giving more insight into the climate of analysed cities, discussed in terms of reduction in energy-cost and global greenhouse gas emissions. The obtained new classification revealed that the current national thermal zoning methodology is inadequate in division of the studied geographical area particularly for mild climates where cooling needs are significant. Finally, an updated climate zone map of Turkey for building thermal regulation was proposed.
... As shown in Table 1, several types of disruptions or emergencies can lead to the systemic failure of buildings to be resilient-e.g., air pollution, fires, and earthquakes. Disruptions are increasingly presented by unexpected phenomena outside or inside the building [21]. The rate and pace of disturbances that the built environment faces have been accelerating significantly over the past three decades [22]. ...
... Disruptions are shocks or events that have an origin, a nature, an incidence, a scale, and duration. Therefore, we define disruptions in buildings as shocks that degrade the indoor environment and, therefore, require resilient cooling strategies and technologies to maintain it [21]. ...
Conference Paper
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The concept 'Resilience' has gained wide international attention by experts and is now seen as the future target for the design of buildings. However, before using the word 'resilience', we must understand the semantics of the word. Resilience is not 'resistance' and is not 'robustness and is not 'sustainability', it is a more complex definition. As part of the International Energy Agency Annex 80 on resilient cooling in buildings, this paper focuses on formulating a definition for resilient cooling. Resilient cooling is used to denoting low energy and low carbon cooling solutions that strengthen the ability of individuals, and our community as a whole to withstand, and also prevent, the thermal and other impacts of changes in global and local climates; particularly concerning increasing ambient temperatures and the increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves. This paper focuses on the review of most of the existing resilient cooling definitions and the various approaches towards possible resiliency evaluation methodologies. It presents and discusses possible answers to the abovementioned issues to facilitate the development of a consistent resilient cooling definition and a robust evaluation methodology. The paper seeks to impact national building codes and international standards, through a clear and consistent definition and a commonly agreed evaluation methodology.
... In order o include climate change and obtain the 2060 projection, we considered the IPCC 5th assessment applying a down-scaling methodology to the most recent TMY file (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018) [21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. The method is summarized in [36]. ...
... The folder "simulation file outputs" contains the annual simulation file results for all the studied locations and weather datasets. Heating and cooling loads (detailed per use) are given for: 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2020TMY, IWEC2, lWEC, 2060. The variances from the 15-year average and weather averages are also given. ...
Article
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The building sector has a strategic role in the clean energy transition towards a fully decarbonized stock by mid-century. This data article investigates the use of different weather datasets in building energy simulations across Europe. It focuses on a standard performing building optimized to a nearly-zero level accounting for climate projections towards 2060. The provided data quantify the building energy performance in the current and future scenarios. The article investigates how heating and cooling loads change depending on the location and climate scenario. Hourly weather datasets frequently used in building energy simulations are analyzed to investigate how climatic conditions have changed over recent decades. The data give insight into the implications of the use of weather datasets on buildings in terms of energy consumption, efficiency measures (envelope, appliances, systems), costs, and renewable production. Due to the ongoing changing climate, basing building energy simulations and design optimization on obsolete weather data may produce inaccurate results and related building designs with an increased energy consumption in the coming decades. Energy efficiency will become more crucial in the future when cooling and overheating will have to be controlled with appropriate measures used in combination with renewable energy sources.
... Durante su vida útil típica de 50 años o más, los edificios contemporáneos estarán sujetos a un clima que será progresivamente más cálido y volátil [4], [5]. Como era de esperar, varios estudios existentes predicen un futuro aumento de la demanda ...
... La primera categoría constituye un pequeño porcentaje del total, y con la aplicación de nuevas métodos y técnicas de construcción complementados con la inclusión de los últimos avances tecnológicos, se espera que en un futuro no muy lejano estos edificios sean energéticamente independientes[1]. Sin embargo, para la categoría mucho más grande de edificios existentes, se deben adaptar medidas para mejorar el consumo de energía.Durante su vida útil típica de 50 años o más, los edificios contemporáneos estarán sujetos a un clima que será progresivamente más cálido y volátil[4],[5]. Como era de esperar, varios estudios existentes predicen un futuro aumento de la demanda anual de refrigeración y disminución de la demanda anual de calefacción[6]. Si los edificios no están preparados para el clima cambiante, puede haber importantes riesgos para la salud de los ocupantes, con exposición a altas temperaturas interiores que pueden provocar golpes de calor. ...
Preprint
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1. INTRODUCCIÓN Uno de los mayores desafíos del siglo XXI es el consumo de energía primaria y su impacto en el cambio climático [1]. Esta realidad subraya la importancia del hecho de que el stock mundial de edificios representa alrededor del 40% del consumo total de energía y emite un tercio de la cantidad total de gases de efecto invernadero [2]. Minimizando así la fuente de demanda de energía, por lo tanto, es esencial para reducir el consumo en la cadena de suministro de energía global y lograr la sostenibilidad en los edificios [3]. En la literatura sobre reducción del consumo de energía en la industria de la construcción, se distingue entre edificios en etapa de planificación y los que ya existen. La primera categoría constituye un pequeño porcentaje del total, y con la aplicación de nuevas métodos y técnicas de construcción complementados con la inclusión de los últimos avances tecnológicos, se espera que en un futuro no muy lejano estos edificios sean energéticamente independientes [1]. Sin embargo, para la categoría mucho más grande de edificios existentes, se deben adaptar medidas para mejorar el consumo de energía. Durante su vida útil típica de 50 años o más, los edificios contemporáneos estarán sujetos a un clima que será progresivamente más cálido y volátil [4], [5]. Como era de esperar, varios estudios existentes predicen un futuro aumento de la demanda
... The impacts of CC on the buildings include energy consumption shifts from heating towards cooling and increased HVAC inefficiency and malfunction rates. Depending on the future local conditions, these effects will have further consequences on occupant thermal comfort and health, as well as building-related environmental impacts and operational costs [2][3][4]. ...
Article
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This research presents a methodological framework for lifetime energy demand and PV energy generation predictions for a given building considering the CC impacts through multivariate regression models. As a case study, a hypothetical office building in Turkey was selected. An existing linear morphing methodology was utilized to generate future weather files for all 81 cities in Turkey. For each year and city, corresponding weather metrics were calculated, and heating/cooling demand and PV energy generation values were computed through building energy simulations. Obtained data were used to develop two sets of multivariate regression models: (i) models to predict future weather metrics and (ii) models to predict future energy demand and generation. These models allowed lifetime energy demand and generation analysis (including associated GWP and cost) of the building considering CC impacts using only the current weather metrics of its location. For a lifetime of 60 years, considering CC impacts yielded substantially higher cooling (averaging at +0.5 MWh/m² in the warmest region) and lower heating loads (averaging at −0.4 MWh/m² in the coldest region). For Turkey, the carbon intensity and the unit cost of cooling are much higher than those of heating. Therefore, the shift from heating to cooling has significant consequences in lifetime GWP and cost values (averaging +212 kg CO2-eq/m² and +27 $/m², respectively, for the warmest region), emphasizing the importance of the decarbonization of the energy sector. The impact of CC on PV energy generation was limited (all-city average of +0.02 MWh/m² for the building lifetime). Our regression-based approach can be further expanded to include not only various building parameters and types, but also supply-demand matching potentials.
... Since such temperature difference is the driving force for any heat transfer, it gives an indication of energy demand for space conditioning, independently of construction features (geometric ratios, orientation, etc.) and systems characteristics (coefficient of performance, transmission loss, etc.) (de Wilde, Tian & Augenbroe, 2011). Seasonal variations and shifts between heating and cooling dominated periods (Dolinar, Vidrih, Kajfež-Bogataj & Medved, 2010) can be accounted for by using different baseline temperatures (de Wilde & Coley, 2012). However, a common baseline value used to assess cooling demand is 26 • C (UNI. ...
Article
The increasingly hot and long summers due to the climate change will cause a significant increase in energy demand for cooling systems, especially in highly-densely populated regions. The cooling energy needs of buildings are proportional to the Cooling Degree Hours, which consist in the cumulative sum of the positive differences between the hourly outdoor temperature and the indoor comfort temperature. In this work, this quantity is computed using gridded temperatures predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting model for the years 2000, 2019, 2050 and 2080 across Italy. This allows investigating the evolution of the cooling energy needs on a national scale, following the climate-change related trend of the ambient temperature. For climate projections, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a high emissions (RCP8.5) scenario defined by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change have been considered. Findings show that results of 2050-RCP8.5 and 2080-RCP4.5 are very close, both in terms of amount of operational hours and cooling degree hours. The maximum level of cooling degree hours has increased more in the recent past than it will grow in the future, even according to RCP8.5. Yet in 2080 about 70% of Italy will reach levels of cooling degree hours not touched in 2000.
... Urban stormwater systems are often incapable of withstanding current fluvial and pluvial extremes, resulting in increasing costs [1][2]. Since both urban fluvial and pluvial flood risks are expected to aggravate with climate change [3], the need to adapt the built environment is large and increasing [4]. The bulk of climate adaptation policy and research in Sweden have mainly concerned the public sector, despite the pronounced importance of private companies, individuals and property owners [5]. ...
Article
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Climate change and urban densification pose major challenges to the built environment. In Swedish cities, fluvial and pluvial floods risk being aggravated, necessitating adaptation efforts to make the build environment more resilient. A recent governmental inquiry states that owners are primarily responsible for adapting their property, and that the existing built environment is particularly tricky. Property owners often lack tools and approaches to strategically adapt to climate risks. This paper presents and tests a structured approach intended for large property owners to assess and visualize flood vulnerability in both individual buildings and the property portfolio, and organizational adaptive responses. The approach was developed and tested using the municipal housing company Hyresbostäder in Norrköping, Sweden as case. The study builds on workshops with staff, a systematic flood vulnerability mapping of 575 buildings, and in-situ inspections of the 85 most vulnerable buildings. The vulnerability and need for adaptation of individual buildings were visualized on a map, and adaptive avenues were identified. The approach was found useful for identifying the most vulnerable buildings, concrete adaptation measures and five broad adaptation avenues: risk-focused adaptation investments, area-focused adaptation, regular inspection and maintenance, informed collaboration and tenant dialogues. The property owner’s transformative capacity was improved by creating a shared vision, empowerment and learning, innovation capacity, gaining overview supporting transformative leadership and external cooperation likely to contribute to meeting SDGs 13 and 11. In further studies the approach will be tested by other large property owners under limited research support.
... The prolonged effect of climate is reflected on the cladding's degradation history. In the context of climate change, the environmental effects on buildings can occur due not only to gradual changes, for instance in climate parameters, but also extreme weather events, like floods [83]. Degradation can be accelerated at different rates, depending on the pace to which climate evolves, namely regarding the intensity and duration of climate parameters' extremes and severe climate events. ...
Article
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Façades, as the most external building envelope component, are subject to different ex-ternal environmental loads, such as: Temperature, precipitation, damp, and wind. Therefore, the contribution of environmental actions to the occurrence of defects in façades claddings is an important subject of study since these actions strongly affect the degradation process and natural ageing of these components during their service life. In this study, a methodology to support decision-makers in the process of selecting a façade cladding system and the maintenance strategy to implement is presented and discussed. This methodology covers the performance of four façade claddings (ceramic tiling systems (CTS), natural stone claddings (NSC), external thermal insulation composite systems (ETICS), and architectural concrete façades (ACF)) over time, according to three environmental exposure variables (exposure to damp, distance from the sea, and orientation). The databases were established based on the diagnosis of the degradation condition of these claddings in-service conditions, in Portugal. The results reveal that the environmental exposure variables have a significant impact on maintenance requirements and costs. For all the categories of the environmental exposure condition variables, under all scenarios, ETICS is the least favorable constructive solution while CTS is the most advantageous solution. Furthermore, the results show that properly implemented maintenance activities enhance the performance level of building components, which positively affects their degradation behavior over time.
... The construction industry is currently considered one of the main sectors triggering the acceleration of climate change and the depletion of natural resources (Belussi et al., 2019;Cabeza & Chàfer, 2020;Díaz López et al., 2019;Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2015). These changing environmental effects can have a substantial impact on the behaviour and performance of a building throughout its life cycle if they are not taken into account at the design stage (de Wilde & Coley, 2012). In this sense, if buildings are designed without considering climatic dynamics, within a short period, they will be unable to provide the adequate thermal comfort for which they have been designed, incurring an extra cost in terms of energy consumptionEC, and may cause the deterioration of building frames and structural components (Brown et al., 2016;Grøntoft, 2011;Nik et al., 2015;Troup et al., 2019). ...
Article
It is essential to design buildings that take on the dynamics of the climate throughout their entire life cycle, guaranteeing the development of a building stock that is certainly sustainable and resilient. This study's main objective is to demonstrate that the official Spanish climate zones for building do not represent the current climatic conditions and to show how these climate zones will evolve due to the impact of climate change. Given the significant impact that climate change will have on this country, as well as its climatic variety, the proposed methodology can be used as a reference in other regions. Updating of the climate zones of peninsular Spain for 49 cities has been carried out, through the adaptation of these zones to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results show that two-thirds of these cities are currently designing and constructing buildings with obsolescent climate data that do not take into account the current or future climate reality, which is significantly affecting previous calculations on the thermal performance of buildings. This work represents a significant scientific contribution in terms of reflecting on the current capacities and the possibilities of improving the building stock.
... How the environmental impacts of climate change affect buildings and the people and processes within them (Image from: De Wilde & Coley, 2012)60 ...
Research
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A Practical Guide to Climate-resilient Buildings & Communities offers construction solutions to adapt to a range of different risks in various climates. For instance, it shows us how to reduce indoor heat in hot and arid climates, or how to mitigate cyclone impacts on buildings in hot and humid climates. Importantly, the report also provides us with a highly practical checklist that should be considered by government officers and development practitioners when undertaking a new building project. The guidance has been developed because there is a recognized need to understand good practices for climate-resilient buildings in communities that may suffer from a deficit of professionally trained architects, engineers, and other practitioners. Therefore, this note is written for a broad audience, including those with little experience in the building and construction industries.
... HOMER performs numerous optimizations for the given input variables to determine the effect of uncertainty. Optimization estimates the optimal rate of factors on which the system has the best performance [54,55]. HOMER gives a best possible combination of modules that will determine particular electrical and thermal loads [56]. ...
Article
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In the current research,a comparative study of hybrid microgrid Net Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs) is performed for temperate and tropical climates. A theoretical building of a shopping mall is considered for both countries. Climate data is recorded for one year and used for designing hybrid NZEB. The proposed hybrid microgrid NZEB consisted on photovoltaic (PV) modules and converters. However, the thermal load is the property of grid-connected hybrid system. Cost-effectiveness of the project is checked using economic parameters of the net present cost (NPC), payback period, and operational costs. Results show that investigation is economical and has a payback period of 1.84years in Thailand and 2.66years in Pakistan. Also, reduction in the per-unit cost of electricity is 31% and 27% in Thailand and Pakistan, respectively.Moreover, the designed hybrid system is 9.5% and 7.1% more economical than the pre working grid system with the unit cost reduction 0.12USD/kWh and0.21 USD/kWh in Pakistan and Thailand respectively. Additionally, maximum electricity generation by PV panels is 234739kWh. So, results will help to develop an approach toward IEA task 47 in Pakistan by minimizing energy cost per unit of electricity. The research will also contribute to the research gap in energy sector by providing an economically advantageous study of simulation-based installation of NZEBs in the commercial sector in both countries.
... It saved in terms of electrical consumption, due to the use of natural light. De Wilde and Coley [139] presented a review on building responses due to climatic impact, so the history of collected data was considered for monitoring and other purposes, and occupants' thermal comfort were taken into account due to climatic changes. Jiang et al. [140] investigated a 7-story shear beam model using multiple sensors by adopting a fuzzy neural network (FNN) and data fusion techniques using fusion algorithms. ...
Article
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This study investigated operational and structural health monitoring (SHM) as well as damage evaluations for building structures. The study involved damage detection and the assessment of buildings by placing sensors and by assuming weak areas, and considered situations of assessment and self-monitoring. From this perspective, advanced sensor technology and data acquisition techniques can systematically monitor a building in real time. Furthermore, the structure's response and behavior were observed and recorded to predict the damage to the building. In this paper, we discuss the real-time monitoring and response of buildings, which includes both static and dynamic analyses along with numerical simulation studies such as finite element analysis (FEA), and recommendations for the future research and development of SHM are made.
... Sabe-se que o desempenho térmico e energético dos edifícios é dependente do clima ao qual estão expostos (OLGYAY, 1973;MACIEL;FORD;LAMBERTS, 2007;DE WILDE;COLEY, 2012) e, portanto, novas condições climáticas irão influenciar e impor novos impactos aos edifícios e aos usuários (ALVES, 2014;GUARDA et al., 2019). Nico-Rodrigues (2015) afirma que adotar diretrizes que consideram as relações entre o clima e os seres humanos é um importante instrumento para definição de habitações adequadas às condições de conforto térmico. ...
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Objetiva-se nessa pesquisa avaliar os impactos das mudanças climáticas no desempenho termoenergético de habitação de interesse social localizada na cidade de Cuiabá-MT, considerando propostas de adequação de sua envoltória tanto no Cenário Base (1961-1990) quanto nos cenários de prospecção de aquecimento global - 2020 (2011-2040), 2050 (2041-2070) e 2080 (2071-2100). As prospecções foram feitas por meio de simulação computacional, utilizando o software EnergyPlus, seguindo as etapas metodológicas: i) preparação dos arquivos climáticos futuros; ii) definição da tipologia construtiva de habitação de interesse social denominada “HISp”; iii) implementação de adequações na envoltória para enquadramento aos melhores níveis das normativas e regulamentos brasileiros de desempenho termoenergético no Cenário Base, obtendo-se a tipologia denominada “HISa”; iii) simulação computacional da temperatura e umidade do ar externo e no interior dos ambientes de permanência prolongada da habitação; e iv) análise comparativa das intervenções. Os impactos quantificados apontam para uma variação da temperatura externa e umidade relativa do ar média anual de 21,5% (+5,75°C) e 22% (-15,4%), respectivamente, até o Cenário 2080, se comparadas ao Cenário Base. As envoltórias das habitações HISa e HISp classificaram-se como “A” e “D” no Cenário Base e ambas como “E” no Cenário 2080. O consumo relativo de energia para condicionamento térmico artificial provisionado para HISp e da HISa poderá se elevar em 83,75% e 99,63%, respectivamente, em 2080, se comparado ao Cenário Base. Prevalecendo as condições climáticas provisionadas, estas poderão ser impeditivas à manutenção da classificação da eficiência energética da envoltória como “A”, desencadeando elevado consumo de energia para resfriamento.
... Buildings are significant contributors to GhG emissions and yet the same buildings need to adapt to a changing climate. For typical developed nations like OECD countries, 25 to 40% of anthropogenic GhG emissions are related to buildings [3]. ...
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The aim of this study is to assess the thermal performance of a low-energy Radiant-Capacitive Heating and Cooling System composed of a radiant-capacitive heating and cooling module, a sky radiator/solar collector and a thermal energy storage (water tank), operating mainly with natural energy sources. The system combines different passive strategies, namely: nocturnal radiative cooling for summer or warm periods of the year, solar heating when required, increase of thermal mass indoors with thermal activation of an indoor hydronic radiator. Experimental results are shown for the system in its cooling mode, carried out with small test cells in Curitiba, Brazil. For summer months, the system was capable of reducing the outdoor mean by on average 1.2 K with a peak temperature drop of 4 K. Corresponding offsets for the daily maxima were 5.2 K and 8.9 K, respectively. Mean cooling potential of the system, obtained in a side-by-side temperature comparison between an experimental cell with the implemented system and a control cell, resulted in daily values of up to 220 Wh/m²day. The net cooling power of the radiator during pumping hours at nighttime showed average values between 32 W/m² and 53 W/m², with maximum values reaching 84.5 W/m².
... People spend almost 90% of their time indoors (Vardoulakis et al., 2015), and their health and performance inside buildings are significantly affected by indoor environmental conditions (Wargocki & Wyon, 2017), which are driven by outdoor climatic conditions (Fisk, 2015). Thus, it is crucial to promote human health, comfort and performance in the built environment in the context of climate change (de Wilde & Coley, 2012). In particular, attention should be paid to primary and secondary schools due to the additional challenges facing school environments: Children's bodies are still immature, and they are more vulnerable to a range of indoor environmental exposures compared to adults (Chatzidiakou, Mumovic, & Summerfield, 2012). ...
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Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing humankind in the 21 st century. In the building sector, a warming climate will significantly alter building occupant health, comfort and wellbeing. School buildings in the UK, in particular, might face additional challenges, such as indoor overheating risks due to high internal gains in classrooms, and their current reliance on natural ventilation, which might offer limited cooling capacity in the future, while simulation and assessment of students' exposure to built environment is limited. This paper presents a methodological framework for modelling cognitive performance of students at population level and applies the framework in the case of London secondary schools to calculate and evaluate students' cognitive performance level under different climate scenarios. The aim of the present study is to explore the applicability of this framework on investigating the impacts of ongoing and future climate change on schoolchildren's cognitive performance levels. Using the PDSP (Property Data Survey Programme) dataset and a basic set of school building archetypes for London, a set of archetype models was developed. Weather files based on existing Test Reference Years (TRY) incorporating the UK Climate Projections 2009 scenarios were used for EnergyPlus dynamic simulation. It was found that outdoor temperature, building geometry and ventilation rates can function as reliable predictors of students' cognitive performance. Future work will include a sensitivity analysis aiming to identify the relative importance of these factors as part of ongoing research.
... There are studies that evaluate the impacts of uncertainties on building performance. These uncertainties can be categorized as, for example, climate change [69], changes in economic factors [70], and variation in occupant behavior [71]. Other studies evaluate the impacts of uncertainties on the energy flexibility of buildings. ...
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... The overwhelming majority of studies on the impact of climate change on buildings use relatively straightforward performance indicators: heating or cooling energy, building overheating, or thermal comfort. Both energy uses are often combined into one factor for overall energy use, or annual carbon emissions [42]. This analysis did improve this approach by evaluating annual energy consumption and building overheating periods simultaneously. ...
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Climate change can significantly impact the total energy consumption and indoor environment of buildings. This study investigates a potential adaptation and mitigation pathway by implementing a multi-objective optimization strategy to minimize the impact. A baseline building model was carefully established. A sampling-based approach and a multi-objective optimization method were combined to enlarge the vision of this study. Performance of a baseline model, baseline variants, and optimized models under different climate change scenarios and time frames were compared. The results reveal that the present building model will experience a 7.2% to 12.3% increase in total energy consumption, along with a significantly longer overheating period in the future. Optimal models show considerable superiority in energy savings and overheating prevention compared to the baseline model and its variants; but under future climate conditions, none of them can help maintain both energy consumption and overheating at the present level of the baseline building. This study recommends that simultaneous evaluation of multiple performance metrics helps make a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of climate change's impact on buildings.
... To reduce the energy demand, several factors need to be considered, such as the performance of the building envelope, the efficiency of the systems, and the behavior of the occupants. Given the progressive global warming, evaluating whether an energy-optimized building with current climate conditions will remain optimized in the future is the goal of many studies [13,14]. A potential pathway for adaptation and mitigation of the impact of climate change on total building energy demands is outlined by [15], through the development of a multi-objective optimization approach. ...
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This paper addresses the effects of long-term climate change on retrofit actions on a school building located in a Mediterranean climate. Dynamic energy simulations were performed using Termolog EpiX 11, first with conventional climate data and then with future year climate data exported from the CCWorldWeatherGen computational software. To date, many incentive actions are promoted for school renovations, but are these measures effective in preventing the discomfort that will be found due to overheating generated by climate change? Today, one of the main objectives in retrofit measures is the achievement of ZEB (Zero Energy Building) performance. Achieving this target requires first and foremost a high-performance envelope. This study evaluates the impact of retrofit strategies mostly applied to the school building envelope, over the years, considering three different time horizons, until 2080. Thermal performance indices and indoor operative temperature under free-floating were evaluated. The results highlight that, with a changing climate, it is no longer possible to assume a constant static condition to evaluate retrofit actions, but it is necessary to develop a predictive mathematical model that considers the design variability for future years. There is an urgent necessity to ensure both the safety and comfort of buildings while also anticipating future variations in climate.
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Robust optimization is performed with the help of a novel robustness indicator, called robust optimality criterion, which ensures the Pareto optimality of solutions under all uncertain conditions. In contrast to existing robustness indicators, the robust optimality criterion offers a control of the degree of robustness, which supports the articulation of the (risk) preferences of the decision-makers during solution analysis.
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Climate change impacts buildings in multiple ways, including extreme weather events and thermal stresses. Rural India comprising 65% of the population is characterised by vernacular dwellings evolved over time to passively regulate and maintain comfortable indoors. Increasing modernization in rural habitations (transitions) evident from the ingress of modern materials and electro-mechanical appliances undermines the ability of building envelopes to passively regulate and maintain comfortable indoors. While such trends are deemed good for the economy, their underlying implications in terms of climate change have not been adequately examined. The current study evaluates the climate-resilience of vernacular dwellings and those undergoing transitions in response to three climate-change scenarios, viz, A1B (rapid economic growth fuelled by balanced use of energy sources), A2 (regionally sensitive economic development) and B1 (structured economic growth and adoption of clean and resource efficient technologies). The study examines dwellings characteristic to three rural settlements representing three major climate zones in India and involves both real-time monitoring and simulation-based investigation. The study is novel in investigating the impact of climate change on indoor thermal comfort in rural dwellings, adopting vernacular and modern materials. The study revealed higher resilience of vernacular dwellings in response to climate change.
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Near-wall microenvironment of a building refers to parameters such as wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation near the building’s façade, etc. The distribution of these parameters on the building façade shows a certain variation based on changes in height. As a technology of passive heating and ventilation, the effectiveness of this application on heat collection wall is significantly affected by the near-wall microclimate, which is manifested by the differences, and rules of the thermal process of the components present at different elevations. To explore the feasibility and specificity of this application of heat collection wall in high-rise buildings, this study uses three typical high-rise buildings from Zhengzhou, China, as research buildings. Periodic measurements of the near-wall microclimate during winter and summer were carried out, and the changing rules of vertical and horizontal microclimate were discussed in detail. Later, by combining these measured data with numerical method, thermal process and performance of heat collection wall based on increasing altitude were quantitatively analyzed through numerical calculations, and the optimum scheme for heat collection wall components was summarized to provide a theoretical basis for the structural design of heat-collecting wall in high-rise buildings.
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Este livro reúne pesquisas desenvolvidas pelo Laboratório de Tecnologia e Conforto Térmico (LATECA) da Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso voltadas ao tema da sustentabilidade das Habitações de Interesse Social. Abordam-se questões inovadoras voltadas à Tecnologia de materiais, demonstrando a utilização de resíduos sólidos em componentes construtivos e, questões relativas à quantificação da energia incorporada nos materiais e componentes de sistemas construtivos de uma edificação, bem como demonstra-se, a partir da estratégia BIM, a importância da aplicação de recursos inovadores no desenvolvimento de projetos de engenharia. Realiza-se, também, estudos de prospecção voltados a quantificação dos impactos térmicos impostos às habitações em um futuro próximo, por meio da consideração de cenário de aquecimento global, demonstrando-se, ainda, por meio de simulação computacional, o potencial de mitigação dos impactos da urbanização em conjuntos habitacionais pela integração da vegetação à paisagem urbana.
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Pesquisas recentes dedicam-se a analisar as mudanças climáticas e os aumentos progressivos da temperatura terrestre. Embora esse fato encontre opositores, para a realização deste estudo, toma-se que as mudanças climáticas são um desafio global para o século XXI. Assim, este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o potencial bioclimático da cidade de Florianópolis, considerando as estratégias bioclimáticas de projeto, os efeitos das mudanças climáticas e a prospecção do clima. Os procedimentos metodológicos consistem em elaboração dos cenários climáticos futuros e elaboração do potencial bioclimático por meio de cartas psicométricas para o cenário base (TMY) e futuros (2020, 2050 e 2080). Os resultados evidenciam aumento na temperatura do ar em 3,59°C e redução da umidade relativa do ar em 1,59%, em 2080, ambos em relação ao cenário base. As estratégias mais suscetíveis aos efeitos das mudanças climáticas é o condicionamento de ar, sendo que no cenário base é requerido 2% das horas, aumentando para 14% em 2080 das horas anuais. Assim, incorporando os efeitos das mudanças climáticas, as condições atuais ficam ainda mais comprometidas, exigindo, cada vez mais, a aplicação de estratégias ativas de projeto para possibilitar melhores condições de conforto no interior das edificações. Palavras-chave: Mudanças Climáticas. Estratégias Bioclimáticas. Arquitetura Bioclimática. ABSTRACT Recent research is devoted to analyzing climate change and progressive increases in terrestrial temperature. Although this fact finds opponents, for the realization of this study, it is assumed that climate change is a global challenge for the 21st century. Thus, this work aims to analyze the bioclimatic potential of the city of Florianópolis, considering the project's bioclimatic strategies, the effects of climate change, and the prospecting of the climate. The methodological procedures consist of the elaboration of future climate scenarios and the elaboration of bioclimatic potential through psychometric charts for the base (TMY) and future (2020, 2050, and 2080) scenarios. The results show an increase in air temperature of 3.59°C and a reduction in relative humidity of 1.59% in 2080, both concerning the base scenario. The strategies most susceptible to the effects of climate change are air conditioning, with 2% of the hours being required in the base scenario, increasing to 14% in 2080 of the annual hours. Thus, incorporating the effects of climate change, current conditions are even more compromised,
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La présence de nombreuses incertitudes en phase de conception peut nuire à la fiabilité d’une aide à la décision pour l’écoconception de bâtiments zéro-énergie basée la simulation énergétique dynamique, l’analyse de cycle de vie et l’optimisation multicritère. Ces travaux de thèse débutent par l’identification des principales sources d’incertitudes en ACV des bâtiments. Puis, une méthode de quantification d’incertitudes significatives est proposée avec l’objectif d’évaluer la robustesse d’une variante de conception dans un contexte prospectif et pour un coût calculatoire limité. Enfin, cette approche d’ACV dynamique prospective est intégrée à la fonction d’évaluation d’un algorithme d’optimisation génétique multicritère afin d’identifier des solutions de conception aux performances environnementales optimales et robustes dans le temps.
Technical Report
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Climate change risks present a clear challenge for Ireland’s built environment, with the potential to cause enormous damage to housing, commercial property and critical infrastructure, imposing significant financial costs and posing risks to health and well-being. At the urban scale, vulnerability to flooding (fluvial, pluvial and coastal), coastal erosion and heat stress will increase due to anticipated climate change. At the building scale, building fabric is at increased risk because of increases in precipitation (increased water penetration and indoor moisture content); subsidence (more variable water content in soil); more intensive freeze–thaw cycles; damage from wind and increased storminess, including structural damage and increased weathering due to driving rain; and impacts on indoor air quality and thermal comfort. These risks are systemic issues in that development patterns and decisions can compound and entrench future risks, for example building on floodplains or increasing impermeable surface cover in cities. Adaptation is the critical second pillar of climate action, alongside mitigation. At the national level, Ireland’s National Adaptation Framework sets out the key principles for adaptative action, calling for a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach. The National Adaptation Framework’s actions are to be mainstreamed using sectoral adaptation strategies and local adaptation strategies. There is no explicit sectoral guidance for the built environment; however, local adaptation strategies are invariably focused on protecting the built environment in terms of homes, businesses, critical infrastructure and cultural heritage, with an emphasis on resilience-in-place. The National Adaptation Framework promotes the advancement of grey, green and soft adaptation approaches, providing a suitable framework for built environment interventions. In relation to the built environment and climate action, currently much greater emphasis is placed on mitigation measures than on adaptation measures. There is significant scope for advancing a greater policy coherence on adaptation through the planning system and building control, and on regulations through considering a broader set of anticipated climate risks and by integrating mitigation and adaptation actions (and avoiding maladaptation). While there is good awareness of a portfolio of policy and design approaches for adaptation, through a survey and interviews with key stakeholders, we found a gap in policy implementation and barriers to taking holistic action. In relation to building design, these barriers included a lack of client interest in green adaptation; a tendency to construct to minimum standards; a gap between building design and actual building performance; the behaviour of building occupants in relation to building performance; and a lack of monitoring and review. In relation to planning and local adaptation, barriers included a lack of adequate resourcing, institutional silos and/ or inertia and the absence of specialist knowledge. Enhanced knowledge, training, continuing professional development and institutional capacity-building offer key paths towards more ambitious adaptation within Ireland’s built environment sector. This extends beyond existing local authority-level capacity-building initiatives to embrace the whole sector from third-level education to professional design practice and construction, while also addressing public sector resourcing deficiencies. In this report we propose a series of 28 Built Environment-Resilient recommendations under four headings to enhance policy and practice. Key priorities are: 1. Mainstreaming adaptation in the built environment. This includes prioritising adaptation as a critical second pillar of climate action; focusing on the full range of climate change risks (not simply flooding); integrating built environment adaptation with the wider land use system; capturing mitigation and adaptation benefits through holistic approaches; and focusing on the whole built environment and not only new-builds. 2. Evidence and uncertainty in decision-making. Adaptation of the built environment requires a robust and geographically tailored evidence base; there is a need for granular and useable information on climate impacts. Uncertainty strengthens the case for early investment and points to adopting the precautionary approach, and further research is needed in relation to costs, responsibilities of key stakeholders, behaviour of building occupants and social vulnerability in relation to climate risks. 3. Co-designing of adaptation interventions. This includes collaborative stakeholder engagement, the inclusion of climate scenarios as part of statutory public consultation and the testing of novel public engagement methods. 4. Capacity-building requirements. This includes improving resourcing and institutional capacity, adopting new ways of working to avoid traditional siloed thinking and continued professional development and training for elected representatives.
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Alterations in climate parameters and severe weather events, within the context of an-thropogenic climate change, will likely lead to soil instability and harsher exposure con-ditions of the building’s enclosures, having direct implications on the acceleration of degradation phenomenon. Maintenance planning needs to be improved, to minimise predicted effects of climate-induced risks on a vulnerable built environment, contrib-uting to the sustainability and resilience of constructions. The purpose of this research is to make a literature review on the topic of climate change adaptation and building maintenance and use it as the base to point out possible further developments regarding maintenance planning contribution to the adaptation of building stock management. The implementation of maintenance activities with this aim is still incipient and based on theoretical approaches. Despite the scarcity of research on this topic, the literature covers several relevant complementary tools to maintenance planning, also included in the pre-sent paper, considering their essential role to the efficient implementation of climate change adapted maintenance. Future works lay on: (i) the development of tools that connect climate agents to buildings degradation, (ii) their integrated contribution to maintenance planning and (iii) the optimized use of inspection systems.
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The use of recycled materials and industrial by-products as sustainable constituents of cement-based materials could be an environmentally and technically promising solution for application to structural elements. In the present work, the technical and environmental impact of using recycled steel fibers as an alternative to industrial steel fibers for concrete reinforcement was assessed at material level. Numerical simulations were performed to derive the post-cracking constitutive laws of the developed Recycled Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete (RSFRC) and Industrial Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete (ISFRC) by inverse analysis of experimental results obtained from three-point notched beam bending tests (3PNBBT), round panel tests supported in three points (RPT-3ps) and double edge wedge splitting tests (DEWST). These simulations were able of fitting with high accuracy the experimental results and consequently to derive the tensile stress-crack width relationships of RSFRC and ISFRC that was used to numerically simulate the bending response of a T-cross section steel RSFRC beam failing in shear. The environmental impact of the incorporation of RSF in concrete in comparison with ISFRC was evaluated using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. The reduction of the environmental impact of the production of RSFRC compared to ISFRC with the same concrete strength class is demonstrated.
Article
Purpose The residential buildings sector has a high priority in the climate change adaptation process due to significant CO 2 emissions, high energy consumption and negative environmental impacts. The article investigates how, conversely speaking, the residential buildings will be affected by climate change, and how to improve existing structures and support long-term decisions. Design/methodology/approach The climate dataset was created using the scenarios determined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and this was used in the study. Different building envelope and Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems scenarios have been developed and simulated. Then, the best scenario was determined with comparative results, and recommendations were developed. Findings The findings reveal that future temperature-increase will significantly impact buildings' cooling and heating energy use. As the outdoor air temperatures increase due to climate change, the heating loads of the buildings decrease, and the cooling loads increase significantly. While the heating energy consumption of the house was calculated at 170.85 kWh/m ² in 2020, this value shall decrease significantly to 115.01 kWh/m ² in 2080. On the other hand, the cooling energy doubled between 2020 and 2080 and reached 106.95 kWh/m ² from 53.14 kWh/m ² measured in 2020. Originality/value Single-family houses constitute a significant proportion of the building stock. An in-depth analysis of such a building type is necessary to cope with the devastating consequences of climate change. The study developed and scrutinised energy performance improvement scenarios to define the climate change adaptation process' impact and proper procedure. The study is trying to create a strategy to increase the climate resistance capabilities of buildings and fill the gaps in this regard.
Article
The construction sector contributes significantly to the production of greenhouse gases and thus to climate change. This study aims to quantify the environmental performance of selected bearing constructions with special regard to their climate change contribution and resource depletion. Environmental impacts were assessed using environmental indicators, such as global warming potential and abiotic, water and natural resource depletion. The material composition of the wall structures consisted of aerated concrete blocks, ranging from 300 to 375 mm, with different thermal-insulation materials (expanded polystyrene with graphite, and rock wool) and variable interior and exterior plaster. The evaluation was based on life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology within the ‘‘cradle to gate” boundaries. The calculated values of global warming potentials per square metre of wall construction ranged from 234.16 to 283.46 kg CO 2 eq for the 20-year time span, from 213.02 to 255.20 kg CO 2 eq for the 100-year time span and from 190.40 to 229.90 kg CO 2 eq for the 500-year time span. The average water consumption was identified as 3.97 m ³ , and the abiotic depletion was identified as 1.41 kg Sb eq per square metre of the wall structure. The lowest environmental impact in all environmental categories evaluated was found for a structure with aerated concrete with a thickness of 300 mm with graphite polystyrene thermal insulation and with silicone outdoor plaster. Using a suitable material composition of the wall structure, up to a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved while maintaining the same thermal parameters of the structure.
Thesis
Recycled Steel Fibers (RSF) derived from the tire recycling industry have been successfully used in concrete to improve its post-cracking load bearing capacity and energy absorption performance. For structural elements exposed to chloride environments, an important aspect of Recycled Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete (RSFRC) durability is the corrosion resistance. However, research on the durability of RSFRC is almost inexistent, namely concerning the effects of chloride attack, which may limit the mobilization of the full potential of RSFRC. The present thesis aims to assess the mechanical behavior and durability performance of RSFRC under chloride attack involving both experimental and analytical/numerical research, which knowledge may contribute for future design guidelines and design tools for RSFRC structures. The research activities carried out covered two main fields, the technology of RSFRC manufacturing and the investigation on the corrosion susceptibility of RSFRC. In the first field, an experimental program was carried out to characterize the RSF in terms of geometry, chemical composition, mechanical properties and microstructure. The influence of rubber particles attached to RSF surface was assessed in the performance of RSF as concrete reinforcement and in its corrosion resistance. A sustainable mix composition of RSFRC was attained and their mechanical properties were evaluated by three-point notched beam bending tests and compressive tests. The second research field involved an experimental program to characterize the RSF corrosion and to investigate the corrosion effects of RSF on the fiber reinforcement mechanisms developed during the fiber pull-out from cracked concrete previously exposed to corrosive environment. Additionally, the post-cracking behavior of RSFRC under chloride attack was characterized from double edge wedge splitting tests and round panel tests. In these tests, the influence of the crack width, chloride exposure period and fiber distribution/orientation profile was considered. The experimental results were used to perform numerical simulations by inverse analysis, aiming to derive the post-cracking constitutive laws of RSFRC. A simplified prediction of the critical chloride content corresponding to the beginning of fiber corrosion and of the long-term performance of a RSFRC structural element exposed to a specific dry-wet aggressive maritime environment was performed. In addition, the technical, environmental and economic benefits of using the developed RSFRC for application to structural elements were assessed at material level and compared to Industrial Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete.
Chapter
Despite the fact that energy efficiency in buildings is an essential measure of sustainable development, its operative performance to the changing climate should also be ensured. Buildings are designed to operate for extended periods, preferably exceeding 40–50 years, and the initial design of buildings should enable proactive adaptation to a greater extent. This chapter discusses the design strategies that can be implemented to adapt to future climate conditions such as warmer temperatures and water shortages. The impact of the environment on buildings and the impact of buildings on the environment are discussed to understand how buildings and environment interact. The implications of changing climate on the buildings are discussed under three major resilient measures of thermal comfort, extreme events and durability of building materials. The extreme climate events including heat waves, flooding and storms and strategies of resilient design for such events are also discussed. The durability of building materials for changing climate is assessed mainly for reinforced concrete and timber, as they form a large part of the building materials and also sensitive to changing climate.
Thesis
Since the advent of the first sustainable building assessment method (SBAM), Transient System Simulation Tool (TRYNNS), many very different methods have been developed to assess the sustainability of buildings. However, significant challenges have hampered the implementation of these instruments. On the one hand, the complexity of the assessment and the absence of a common framework of criteria across countries creates uncertainty in comparing sustainable buildings with each other. On the other hand, concerns regarding the high upfront capital costs of sustainable building in the long term and the lack of fiscal, financial and governmental instruments for implementing sustainability criteria create a dilemma for stakeholders. Furthermore, due to the demonstrated changes in climate, these methods must consider the consequences over the lifetime of the building. Although SBAMs have been widely studied, the wide range of factors influencing climate change adaptation, implementation strategies and the consequences for increased sustainable building development have not yet been studied in depth. Consequently, the main objective of this research is to gain an in-depth understanding of existing SBAMs and their capacity to adapt to climate change and develop strategies to facilitate their implementation. The scientific evolution of sustainable building and SBAMs are analysed, existing methods are studied and compared, and the bases for the development of strategies aimed at facilitating and promoting their implementation are identified and laid. The results obtained show a scientific field in constant evolution, from its initial focus on environmental impacts to the gradual inclusion of social and economic aspects of sustainability. Furthermore, they show that each of the individual methods does not assess all building variables. These results are conclusive in the experts' positive assessment of Level(s), a new framework established by the European Commission on building adapted to the circular economic paradigm. Level(s) are identified as the complete method to date, highlighting factors such as its response to the need to adapt buildings to climate change, its standard reference language and its use in multiple situations. For this reason, key strategies for the implementation of Level(s) are established, including identifying the effect of climate change on buildings and identifying incentives for the promotion of sustainable building and their evaluation. Furthermore, it is highlighted that the current lack of regulations on the adaptation of buildings to climate change results in an obsolete building stock, which is unable to cope with the climate dynamism that is already occurring. It is concluded that the results obtained in this work are a valuable contribution to all stakeholders, as they provide experts in the building field with a comprehensive view of the status quo and predict dynamic directions for future research.
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Climate change, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, is a growing global concern, threatening world-wide environment, health and economy. Energy needs for buildings are a large source of greenhouse gas emissions. As the energy needs of buildings strongly depends on weather patterns, this paper investigates how climate change may impact building heating and cooling loads, cost-optimal efficiency measures, and renewable energy production. Eight locations (Stockholm, Milan, Vienna, Madrid, Paris, Munich, Lisbon, and Rome) highlight differences among European climates. Weather datasets, commonly used in building energy simulations, are evaluated to see how climatic parameters have changed over recent decades. A future climate change scenario (with uncertainties) is analyzed for the year 2060. Weather files are used to drive building energy simulations for a standard baseline and a (Nearly Zero Energy Building) NZEB residential building whose design is improved using a cost-optimization approach. The analysis indicates most currently available weather datasets cannot assure reliable results with building simulations. We find the energy balance in European buildings will significantly change under future conditions: heating will decrease by 38%–57%, while cooling will increase by +99%–380% depending on location. In future NZEBs, efficiency measures to reduce cooling needs and overheating will be favored (e.g. roof insulation, window type, solar shading, envelope finishes), illustrating how improving energy efficiency will be more crucial within climate change scenarios. Compared to the baseline, more efficient NZEBs will enable renewable energy to much better cover building needs. There will also be advantages from reducing winter and summer peak demand, particularly when coupled to short-term electrical storage. When solar resource is limited in winter, more airtight, better-insulated NZEBs improve PV self-consumption.
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Office buildings are responsible for a substantial portion of the energy demand in the commercial sector. To better understand and address the impacts of climate change on their energy demand and comfort levels, this paper investigates office buildings located in extremely cold, cold-humid, and cool-humid Canadian climate zones. Building energy simulations are performed using climate projections for the 2056-2075 period. The effect of extending thermostat setpoints, as a demand response strategy on reducing energy demand, is also studied under future climate conditions. The results quantify the expected decrease in the heating and the increase in the cooling loads due to the future warmer temperatures across Canada. However, the magnitude of change varies significantly among the three selected climate zones. Extending the temperature setpoints would reduce the annual energy demand by 8.0-19.2% in Quebec City, 1.8-9.0% in Toronto, and 1.8-9.6% in Vancouver. For all three selected cities, extending the temperature setpoints result in a substantial percentage of zones with a predicted mean vote (PMV) outside of the ±0.5 range. The benefits of increased levels of insulation for reaching thermal comfort during cold winter days and the penalty that would occur in summer days are assessed. Finally, the greenhouse gas emissions for the present and forecasted future energy demand of heating and cooling are determined.
Experiment Findings
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This is a brief study about passive adaptive solutions for low resource naturally ventilated building in Olodi Apapa (Ajegunle), Lagos Nigeria. Here, we are considering window shading as a passive method to improving thermal comfort. We have compared the use drapes to translucent shade rolls. Our outcomes indicated reduction in solar gains but the relative humidity is high and the room remains uncomfortable to occupants according to ASHRAE Standards 55 and ISO 7730 Standards. This might require some airflow introduction into the building for thermal comfort to be achieved.
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Science indicates that cities are central to society’s capacity to avoid catastrophic and irreversible climate change, that rapid transitions to climate wise practices are needed and that transition steps will face implementation challenges. Lessons learned from reform experience can build understanding of the knowledge, policy and practices required for further transitions. This paper identifies lessons learned from renewable energy and resilience reforms in the city of Canberra, Australia. It finds that attention to science-policy-practice interfaces contributes important insights for the design of planned transitions and for integrative and implementation-focused reforms needed to overcome local barriers.
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City dwellers in South America suffer thermal discomfort inside the buildings because of climate change, a situation that directly affects their health. Resilient design addresses this issue as a response thereto. The objective of the article is to evaluate resilient design characteristics responding to the need for thermal comfort in social housing with regard to the effect of climate change. This was carried out through a theoretical and an empirical stage in two South American cities with opposite characteristics: Passo Fundo in Brazil and Tunja in Colombia. As a result, it was found that CEB is a viable option only in climates with specific conditions given its thermal and environmental properties, according to direct heat gain strategies that tend to be resilient and fit a bioclimatic urban design better. Considering the above, it was concluded that the envelope plays a key role in resilient design in terms of thermal comfort.
Thesis
Buildings consume 40% of the total energy produced in the United States (US), making this sector an opportune choice for devising strategies aimed at reducing energy consumption. Even though various tools and simulation frameworks have been developed in prior work for evaluating, monitoring, and regulating the energy use in buildings, their deployment has primarily been in the form of standalone applications that consider limited aspects of the entire system. For example, energy simulation programs provided by the US Department of Energy such as EnergyPlus and eQuest calculate the annual operating energy in a building by assuming static parameters for occupancy schedules and performance of building systems. However, this approach does not consider the effects of occupants’ dynamic energy use behavior or the effects of material and systems degradation over the life cycle of a building, among other influencing factors. Therefore, the primary objective of this dissertation is to create a simulation framework that is capable of modeling and analyzing a building’s energy consumption with improved accuracy by considering dynamic influencing factors through an interdependent analysis. A primary contribution of this research effort is the Lightweight and Adaptive Building Simulation (LABS) framework, an innovative distributed computing environment that can conduct a life cycle based building energy simulation by incorporating several dynamic energy-influencing factors in unison. The LABS framework integrates all the energy requirements occurring in a building’s life cycle such as embodied, operational and end of life energy demands, thereby visualizing the inter-dependency among these energy requirements and all dynamic influencers affecting a building’s life cycle energy profile. The effectiveness of the LABS framework was evaluated and demonstrated through several case-study analyses. A system dynamics based energy simulation analysis performed on a case study building located in Chicago has shown that energy savings of up to 20.5% are possible by adopting effective operational and maintenance schemes in a building’s entire life cycle. Similarly, it has also been demonstrated that influencing occupant behavioral choices through energy based interventions, can achieve energy savings of up to 13% per month. These two observations highlight the importance of analyzing the effects of dynamic factors in a building’s life cycle and the capabilities of the LABS framework in analyzing and quantifying the interdependent effects of such factors during a building’s life cycle. By allowing coupled effects of multiple energy-influencing processes to be concurrently explored, this research opens future possibilities for the performance-based assessment of building energy systems.
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Pakistan is among the 10 countries that will be most affected by climate change. While the country contributes less than 1 percent of the world's greenhouse gases responsible for causing global warming, its 200 million people are among the world's most vulnerable victims of the growing consequences of climate change. The nation is facing ever-rising temperatures, drought, and flooding that present serious threats to the country’s rich built heritage. This research explores the traditional passive climate-control strategies that have been used in Pakistan’s traditional brick masonry buildings to mitigate its hot arid climate and considers how these design solutions can be preserved and adapted in the rehabilitation of these historic masonry structures. The research further investigates the capacity and resiliency of these age-old strategies to perform under changing climate conditions and recommends methods to improve their performance. The Sheesh Mahal Complex in Lahore Fort provides an excellent case study to analyze this traditional regional form of passive cooling and the impacts of climate change on its performance efficacy. The Complex was built as a royal residence during the Mughal Period in the 16th century and incorporates hydraulic engineering, architectural design, and urban planning all together as an integrated whole. The research further examines how its current restoration can incorporate the existing passive environmental systems as part of a more sustainable conservation and management plan.
Conference Paper
While working toward improved energy efficiency in the building sector, building systems need to be more resilient to cope with the dynamic environment. Climate change and the effects of fluctuations in the natural environment impact building systems. They can push buildings to operate at a higher limit than the initial designs leading to failure of the system. One of the most commonly addressed forms of resilience in buildings is the structural system. Other building services and systems should also be resilient to ensure robustness and adaptability. Increasing resilience for existing infrastructure and incorporating resilience into future facilities will be beneficial to achieving the social, environmental, and economic needs of occupants and other stakeholders. The literature was synthesized to identify opportunities for improved resilience in buildings beyond structural systems. This paper explores sustainability, resilience, and resilient building systems and provides recommendations that can advance sustainability and resilience in buildings.
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This paper presents the results of a computational study on the energy consumption and related CO2 emissions for heating and cooling of an office building within the Urban Heat Island of London, currently and in the future. The study developed twenty weather files in an East-West axis through London; the weather files were constructed according to future climate change scenario for 2050 suitable for the UK which have been modified to represent specific locations within the London UHI based on measurements and predictions from a program developed for this purpose (LSSAT). The study simulated an office with typical construction, heat gains and operational patterns with an advanced thermal simulation program (IESVE). The predictions confirm that heating load decreases, cooling load and overheating hours increase as the office location moves from rural to urban sites and from present to future years. It is shown that internal heat gains are an important factor affecting energy performance and that night cooling using natural ventilation will have a beneficial effect at rural and city locations. As overheating will increase in the future, more buildings will use cooling; it is shown that this might lead to a five-fold increase of CO2 emission for city centre offices in London in 2050. The paper presents detailed results of the typical office placed on the East-West axis of the city, arguing the necessity to consider using weather files based on climate projections and urban heat island for the design of current buildings to safeguard their efficiency in the future.
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The National Health Service (NHS) Estate in England includes 18.83 Mm2 of acute hospital accommodation, distributed across 330 sites. Vulnerability to overheating is clear with 15,000 excess deaths occurring nationally during the July 2003 heatwave. The installation of mechanical cooling in existing hospitals appears to be the inevitable recommendation from NHS patient safety risk assessments but the carbon implications would undermine the NHS Carbon Reduction Strategy. NHS CO2 emissions constitute 25% of all public sector emissions, equivalent to 3% of the UK total. In the post-2008 economic climate, the likelihood of wholesale replacement of the NHS Estate is significantly diminished; refurbishment is now of increasing interest to the Trusts that together make up the NHS. The research project ‘Design and Delivery of Robust Hospital Environments in a Changing Climate’ seeks to understand the environmental performance of the current NHS Estate and, from this, to establish its resilience. To this end, hospital buildings operated by four NHS Trusts are being monitored and simulated using dynamic thermal models calibrated against measured data. Adaptive refurbishment options are proposed and their relative performance predicted against the existing internal conditions, energy demands and CO2 emissions. This paper presents findings relating to one representative type building, a medium-rise ward block dating from the late 1960s. It shows that this particular type may have more resilience in the current climate than might have been expected, that it will remain resilient into the 2030s, and that relatively non-invasive measures would extend and increase its resilience whilst saving energy.
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In view of the warming climate, there is increasing concern about the likelihood of overheating inside UK buildings that are not mechanically cooled. A number of studies are examining this matter, of which the DeDeRHECC project is one. The recent availability of the UKCP09 future climate data projections has acted as a stimulus to such work. This paper illustrates how field measurement, thermal modelling and the generation of current and future typical and extreme weather years, can be used to provide a picture of the resilience of buildings to climate change. The unified framework for assessing both measurements and current and future predictions that is offered by the BSEN15251 thermal comfort standard is a crucial component. The paper focuses on internal temperatures during the day and at night in wards within the tower building at Addenbrooke’s hospital, which has a hybrid ventilation strategy. The maintenance of thermal comfort in such spaces is critically important and installing air-conditioning in response to climate change is expensive and potentially energy intensive. Fans appear to be a simple retrofit measure that may substantially improve the wards’ resilience to climate change even in extreme years. Whilst healthcare provides the back cloth, the methodology developed has a much wider utility for assessing thermal comfort in buildings in the current and future climate of the UK.
Article
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Building thermal modelling packages require weather data to predict representative internal conditions. Typically, around the world, reference weather years of various forms are used which are created from observations at aparticular location. However, it is unlikely that this location is identical to that of the building. This can lead toweather files for coastal locations being applied to inland and upland sites or vice versa. In the UK, the UKCP09 weather generator has the ability to produce weather at a 5 km resolution. Currently, it is unclear how useful this extra spatial resolution will be and it is this question that is addressed here. It is found that for both future and present climate, the spatial variability of the weather is the dominating factor. Although there are geographies where a low spatial resolution can be used, there are regions where a much higher resolution is necessary.
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A method is developed to generate future design reference year (DRY) data from the United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme's 2009 (UKCP09) climate change projections for a variety of future time horizons and carbon emission assumptions. The method selects three near-extreme summer months and three near-extreme winter months and weaves them into an existing test reference year (TRY). Risk levels associated with the 85th percentile (broadly equivalent to existing Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers [CIBSE] design summer years) of the cumulative distribution function of dry-bulb temperature and, for comparison, the 99th percentile are used. A comparison is made with DRYs generated using alternative methods from other research groups. The data are applied to future air-conditioning (cooling) loads analysis for a wide range of non-domestic case study building types. Simulations using a control DRY set applied to these buildings are used to develop a simplified regression-based calculation method for predicting future air-conditioning loads. The simplified model is shown to be applicable to future weather data without loss of accuracy, which makes it possible to carry out large numbers of future cooling loads predictions without the need to perform extensive and complex energy simulations.
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Property-based rainwater drainage provision comprises a number of components broadly categorised as roof, surface or underground drainage. These systems are relied upon to prevent water ingress to the building and to avoid localised ponding or flooding. Recognition of the inherently unsteady response of the integrated network, in part driven by a particular rainfall event but also due to the transient nature of the fluid flows therein, is important in allowing an understanding of system performance under both current and future climate conditions. Codes and standards suggest that roof drainage systems, conventional or siphonic, are designed using a single rainfall intensity figure, representative of the most intense part of a longer storm, whereas runoff to surface and underground drainage is typically based on a single-peaked rainfall profile. Together with the difference in event duration typically adopted as part of the design process, this means that, unless a straightforward uplift factor is applied, then understanding the potential impacts of climate change on overall system performance can be difficult. Using numerical modelling techniques to analyse the performance of a case study site located in Edinburgh, this research identifies an appropriate common rainfall event from which a system-specific exceedance threshold is identified. Specification of this rainfall intensity facilitates an exploration of the impacts of climate change undertaken within the context of UKCP09 projections. Using gutter overtopping as an indicator of failure, this paper explores possible changes in the frequency of system under-capacity under varying future climate change scenarios.
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Different climate change projections, such as UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP02) and 2009 UK Climate projections (UKCP09), have generated a large quantity of data that represent a range of possible future weather scenarios. This article investigates the potential consequences of alternative scenarios for the natural ventilation of non-domestic buildings. The article considers future natural ventilation rates in example buildings, the risk of summer overheating and whether natural ventilation will be a viable thermal control option for future summers. The wind is obviously a key driver of natural ventilation, and a necessary component of building simulation weather files. Problems associated with the generation of wind data from UKCP09 for the natural ventilation analyses are discussed and the influence of differences in weather files on predicted performance considered. These differences are important to the understanding of the consequences for the wider use of UKCP09 derived weather data for building energy evaluation. Practical applications: Weather data are widely used in practice to evaluate the potential and performance of natural ventilation in non-domestic buildings. The predicted differences in future weather data will have direct implications for the design of naturally ventilated buildings, and engineers will need to be aware of the possible implications these climatic differences will create.
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It is argued that simulations of the twentieth century performed with coupled global climate models with specified historical changes in external radiative forcing can be interpreted as climate hindcasts. A simple Bayesian method for postprocessing such simulations is described, which produces probabilistic hindcasts of interdecadal temperature changes on large spatial scales. Hindcasts produced for the last two decades of the twentieth century are shown to be skillful. The suggestion that skillful decadal forecasts can be produced on large regional scales by exploiting the response to anthropogenic forcing provides additional evidence that anthropogenic change in the composition of the atmosphere has influenced the climate. In the absence of large negative volcanic forcing on the climate system (which cannot presently be forecast), it is predicted that the global mean temperature for the decade 2000-09 will lie above the 1970-99 normal with a probability of 0.94. The global mean temperature anomaly for this decade relative to 1970-99 is predicted to be 0.35°C with a 5%-95% confidence range of 0.21°-0.48°C.
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Cities are expected to experience an increasing risk of overheating due to climate change and the urban heat island phenomenon. Although external factors, such as urban morphology and greening, may influence the spatio-temporal variation of overheating risk, the individual building characteristics are also likely to be important. This paper presents the results of EnergyPlus dynamic thermal simulations of 3456 combinations of dwelling types and characteristics selected to represent the London domestic stock. Two Design Summer Year weather files were used to represent the current and future climate: the CIBSE 1984–2004 and a UKCP09 future weather file (50th percentile of external temperature, 2050s, medium emissions scenario). Appreciable variation between dwelling types but generally greater variation within dwelling type was found depending on such factors as orientation, surrounding buildings and insulation levels. Under the current climate, the insulation levels had considerable impact on indoor t
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The climate is changing, both globally and in the UK. To adapt effectively, engineers and planners need as much information as possible on how the climate will evolve. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) provided this in 2002 with UKCIP02 and the latest data UKCP09, which provides data to a resolution of 5 km square grids over the UK. Data sets from these were used in this study along with the historical measured data for three locations — Bracknell (London), Manchester and Edinburgh — to analyse critically the likely changes that may occur in the key climate variables, that is temperature, sunshine duration and solar irradiation. These parameters have an important bearing on the design and function of buildings and building services. Sunshine duration is the main variable that is used to obtain solar radiation in the UKCP09 5 km grid data. For the grids containing Bracknell, Manchester and Edinburgh, most of the UKCP09 data sets for the years 2050 and 2080 showed abnormally elongated sunshine duration, that is from sunrise to sunset, for clear days. In contrast, the latest historic measured data sets indicate only a third of the above sunshine duration. Note that the latter data are used in cooling load design calculations and for the generation of sol-air temperatures. ¹ Of particular note was the anomalous occurrence in UKCP09 of late evening sunshine duration. For Bracknell and Edinburgh, the sunshine duration at hour ending 20 and beyond showed substantial amount of predicted sunshine. As a result of this work, corrective action has been proposed for UKCP09 data. Furthermore, a very significant increase was also noted in solar irradiation for UKCP09. For the historic measured data for Bracknell, the clear day noon irradiation is 818 Wh/m ² . For the UKCP09 grid containing Bracknell the 2080 High Emission scenario data gives an average value of 1002 Wh/m ² , an increase of 23%. The same trend occurs for Edinburgh, (a present value of 789 Wh/m ² and the predicted value of 948 Wh/m ² , an increase of 20%). Note that compounded with presently found increase of 4—5°C increase for the above locations, the substantial increase in irradiation will have a much more pronounced increase in the cooling load of buildings. An evaluation of the change in the character of solar radiation was also undertaken. This was done by noting the change in the diffuse fraction of global irradiation. For Bracknell and Edinburgh historic data and UKCP09 data 2080 High Emission data set show a drastic decrease, respectively from 0.37 to 0.13 and from 0.33 to 0.14. Diffuse fraction may be used as an indicator of the prevailing sky clarity. If the predictions come true a drastic decrease in the diffuse fraction of this magnitude signifies a radical shift in the character of solar climate for the future. The current solar climate of Bracknell is known for its above average turbidity, the latter stemming from the following factors: inland location, high-density housing, proximity to Heathrow airport and M25 London orbital motorway. Whether such an extreme shift in the sky clarity will occur within a matter of 60—70 years is open to discussion. Practical applications: To adapt effectively against the challenge posed by climate change engineers need to know the extent to which the basic climate variables such as temperature and solar radiation will change. This work has used basic data from the UKCP09 project to analyse the extent of the above change with respect to the basic and other derived data. It was shown that for Scottish and English locations a temperature rise of up to 4—5°C may occur between the present age and the year 2080 for High Emission scenario. It was also shown that the corresponding irradiation strength may increase around 22%. Furthermore, it was also found that if these predictions come true then a drastic decrease in the diffuse fraction of irradiation will produce a radical shift in the character of solar climate. The resulting higher proportion of beam irradiation will have to be handled with care in design of overhangs and other shading contraptions to prevent an excessive increase in cooling load of buildings.
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Over the past 15 years, much scientific work has been published on the potential human impacts on climates. For their Third Assessment Report in 2001, the United Nations International Programme on Climate Change developed a set of economic development scenarios, which were then run with the four major general circulation models (GCM) to estimate the anthropogenesis-forced climate change. These GCMs produce worldwide grids of predicted monthly temperature, cloud, and precipitation deviations from the period 1961–1990. As this period is the same used for several major typical meteorological year data sets, these typical data sets can be used as a starting point for modifying weather files to represent predicted climate change. Over the past 50 years, studies of urban heat islands (UHI) or urbanization have provided detailed measurements of the diurnal and seasonal patterns and differences between urban and rural climatic conditions. While heat islands have been shown to be a function of both population and microclimatic and site conditions, they can be generalized into a predictable diurnal and seasonal pattern. Although the scientific literature is full of studies looking at the impact of climate change driven by human activity, there is very little research on the impact of climate change or urban heat islands on building operation and performance across the world. This article presents the methodology used to create weather files which represent climate change scenarios in 2100 and heat island impacts today. For this study, typical and extreme meteorological weather data were created for 25 locations (20 climate regions) to represent a range of predicted climate change and heat island scenarios for building simulation. Then prototypical small office buildings were created to represent typical, good, and low-energy practices around the world. The simulation results for these prototype buildings provide a snapshot view of the potential impacts of the set of climate scenarios on building performance. This includes location-specific building response, such as fuel swapping as heating and cooling ratios change, impacts on environmental emissions, impacts on equipment use and longevity comfort issues, and how low-energy building design incorporating renewables can significantly mitigate any potential climate variation. In this article, examples of how heat island and climate change scenarios affect diurnal patterns are presented as well as the annual energy performance impacts for three of the 25 locations. In cold climates, the net change to annual energy use due to climate change will be positive – reducing energy use on the order of 10% or more. For tropical climates, buildings will see an increase in overall energy use due to climate change, with some months increasing by more than 20% from current conditions. Temperate, mid-latitude climates will see the largest change but it will be a swapping from heating to cooling, including a significant reduction of 25% or more in heating energy and up to 15% increase in cooling energy. Buildings which are built to current standards such as ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2004 will still see significant increases in energy demand over the twenty-first century. Low-energy buildings designed to minimize energy use will be the least affected, with impacts in the range of 5–10%. Unless the way buildings are designed, built, and operated changes significantly over the next decades, buildings will see substantial operating cost increases and possible disruptions in an already strained energy supply system.
Article
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This paper examines the likely effects on gas and electricity consumption and carbon emissions from heating and cooling systems in existing dwellings up to 2080, assuming a widespread uptake of cooling systems. This area of research is highly sensitive to the myriad of possible inputs and thus holds a wide range of predicted outcomes. However, general trends have been found, showing significant sensitivity to ventilation rate, U-values, occupant behaviour and location. Heating demand will still be dominant over cooling demand in UK dwellings by the 2080s, based on an UKCIP02 A1F1 weather scenario. A national worst case scenario for the 2050s, shows a 10 megatonne CO 2 emissions saving on present levels largely due to a 20% reduction in gas consumption. Practical applications: The balance of heating and cooling demand causes more modest changes in CO 2 than first anticipated. Despite first perceptions of future energy use in housing and climate change, heating appears to remain the major load rather than cooling, even into the 2080s. These predictions of future CO 2 emissions will be useful to those in the building industry planning appropriate proportionate climate adaptation and climate mitigation measures. Also, the prediction of changes to future energy demands from the housing sector will be of interest to energy providers considering future demands for heating and cooling and may feed into larger bottom-up energy models.
Book
This book gathers selected papers presented at the First International Conference on Renewable Energy and Climate Change (REC 2018), which was held at the Institute of Infrastructure Technology Research and Management (IITRAM) from 1 to 2 February 2019. The topics covered include renewable (green) energy and sources including wind power, hydropower, solar energy, biomass, biofuel, geothermal energy, wave energy, tidal energy, hydrogen & fuel cells, energy storage, new trends and technologies for renewable energies, policies and strategies for renewable energies, smart grids, batteries, and e-mobility, control techniques for renewable energies, hybrid renewable energies, renewable energy research and applications for industries, applications of renewable energies in electrical vehicles and other allied areas, artificial intelligence and machine learning studies for renewable energies, renewable energy systems in smart cities, climate change mitigation, carbon trading, carbon capture and utilization, and carbon dioxide refrigeration systems.
Article
The assessment of the structural safety of existing bridges and viaducts becomes increasingly important in many countries due to the age of the structures and an increase in traffic loads. Many structures need to be reassessed in order to find out whether the safety requirements are met. Most existing standards, however, are developed for the design of new structures. This paper summarises the recent developments with respect to the specification of the target reliability levels for existing structures. It appears from total life cost optimisation that application of the same target reliability levels for existing structures as for new structures is uneconomical. Further, in some cases the cost optimisation seems to yield rather low reliability levels and human safety criteria become decisive for specification of the target reliabilities of existing structures. In this paper old concrete slab bridges without shear reinforcement are studied. Probabilistic calculations are performed in order to calibrate partial factors satisfying the target reliabilities under traffic load. These partial factors can be used by engineers in level I probabilistic calculations. In this way the often over-costly application of safety standards intended for new structures can be avoided in the reassessment of existing structures.
Article
IPCC (2007): Climate Change The Physical Science Basis The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988. The purpose of IPCC is to assess available information on the science of climate change and to provide policy-relevant but not policy- prescriptive assessments of interest to policymakers, scientists, and the public. IPCC released its fourth Working Group 1 (WG1) assessment report on the state of understanding of the physical science basis of climate change in Paris in February 2007. This talk will summarize the key scientific findings of that report, including observations of changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and ice, and in forcing agents such as carbon dioxide and aerosol, advances in understanding of attribution of changes in climate, and projections of future changes in coming decades and beyond. Finally, a brief summary of the author's view of future challenges for research and for IPCC will be presented.
Article
In this study, test reference year (TRY) data for three UK cities are generated from the new UKCP09 climate change projections1 for a variety of future time horizons and carbon emission scenario assumptions. The data are applied to the energy simulation of three commercial buildings and one house for the three city locations (London, Manchester and Edinburgh), three future time horizons in this century and three carbon emission scenarios. Results are compared with those generated using alternative TRYs from two other research groups who used UKCP091 as well as with the existing TRY data sets which form the CIBSE Future Weather Years2 in order to produce robust results. Results of future simulations of peak summer operative temperatures, peak cooling demand, annual cooling energy, peak heating demand and annual heating energy are presented for the four building case studies benchmarked against control weather data for the period 1960–1989. The results show increasing internal operative temperatures (non-air-conditioned) and increasing air-conditioning demands (air-conditioned) throughout this century and though peak heating demands remain similar to control data, annual heating energy consumptions can be expected to fall sharply.
Article
As climate change predicts hotter summers and warmer winters in the next 100 years, buildings designed now as well as many existing buildings will need to cope with the future climate. The aim for building designers should be to provide buildings with comfortable environments for occupants without using excessive heating or cooling energy, which will exacerbate carbon emissions. This is particularly important for office buildings, as these are more susceptible to the effects of warmer temperatures, with their relatively high levels of internal heat gains. The productivity of occupants can also be affected if conditions of the workplace are not ideal. Using climate change data from UKCIP02 based on HadRM3 for three main sites in the UK (London, Manchester and Edinburgh), test reference years were selected for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under various scenarios.1 Using a second-order room model, future energy usage for heating and cooling were estimated for office buildings complying with various editions of the UK Building Regulation, as a test of the buildings’ age against the effects of climate change. The findings show that the fall in heating energy demand is approximately equalled to the rise in cooling demand as a result of climate change up to the 2080s in Heathrow, Manchester and Edinburgh. Natural ventilation alone would not be able to provide enough summer cooling in the UK in the near future. New office buildings, complying with 2002 Building Regulations, perform significantly better than older ones, and their energy and CO2 emissions remain relatively constant with climate change. However, most of the existing office buildings in the UK are older buildings with lower standards of specification, and the challenge is to make these perform more efficiently. Retrofitting them to have similar properties to the 2002 Building Regulations will be sufficient to cope until 2080s, and increasing the ‘weight’ of the building enclosure will reduce the amount of cooling required. This paper also demonstrates that for all-air systems, it will be essential for fans to be sized correctly for the increasing cooling load with future climate.
Article
Extreme weather events, including heat waves, are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity over the coming decades. Low house building rates and a growing population mean there is a need to adapt existing dwellings. Research presented here uses dynamic thermal simulation to model the effect of passive heat wave mitigating interventions for UK dwellings. Interventions include a range of additions and modifications to solar shading, insulation and ventilation.Results are presented for typical end and mid terrace houses, with four orientations, two occupancy profiles and using weather data from the 2003 heat wave. Results show the effectiveness of interventions that reduce solar gains through the building fabric, such as external wall insulation and solar reflective coatings. Internal wall insulation is shown to be less effective and can increase the overheating problem in some cases. Control of solar gains through glazing, using shutters and fixed shading, are also effective, particularly for south, east and west-facing rooms.Results are also presented which demonstrate how it is possible to select combinations of interventions that both eliminate overheating and reduce space heating energy use. The cost of interventions is also considered in the final analysis.
Article
As a consequence of most building's design lifespan, changing weather conditions driven by climate change, are likely to influence energy demands for heating and cooling, thereby altering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to operation of these systems. A methodology is presented that allows estimation of building lifecycle GHG emissions (both embodied and operational) at the early design stage, accounting for the changing weather conditions produced by climate models (specifically the probabilistic projections provided by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Weather Generator). Annual heating and cooling demands are estimated from projected future temperatures using a model ‘calibrated’ to building performance through dynamic thermal modelling of a selection of example years. A worked example assessing lifecycle GHG emissions of a UK mixed-use development is presented. This shows annual GHG emissions due to space cooling could increase by between 26 and 70% from 2020 to 2080 depending on the future emissions scenario applied. Over the same period, emissions due to heating may decrease by between 12 and 42%, giving an overall net increase in GHG emissions from these systems. Improvements to building cooling systems and reduction to heat gains, particularly lighting, are recommended to reduce risk of increasing GHG emissions over time.
Article
There are growing concerns that the move to lightweight building construction in housing will lead to higher internal temperatures during the summer, particularly in the warmer future, due to lack of thermal mass. A dynamic thermal simulation study using Tas EDSL undertaken by Oxford Brookes University compared the thermal performance of current light, medium and heavy construction techniques for a typical UK three bedroom house. It found little difference in overheating performance for the three constructions in 1990s and 2050s (projected) weather scenarios. It is concluded that current practice in house building concedes little advantage to ‘traditional’ over modern construction techniques. Thermal mass can reduce overheating, primarily in the daytime, but it must be properly exploited by good design (good night ventilation, correct materials in the correct places). It is suggested that it is possible to optimise lightweight housing to provide similar thermal comfort levels during occupied hours using ventilation and shading.
Article
Buildings represent long-term, capital-intensive investments designed to perform for decades into the future. Consequently, the potential for changes in climate across the design lifetime of built environments represents an immediate challenge for planning, design, and construction. In this study, we consider the opportunities to assess Climate Sensitivity and adaptive opportunities associated with green building practice. We developed a pair of complementary indicators called the Climate Sensitivity Index (CSI) and Climate Adaptation Opportunity Index (CAOI). These indicators are applied to evaluate individual strategies (“credits”) within the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED™) for New Construction rating system. The indices provide two complementary scores for each strategy. The CSI reflects potential sensitivity to changing conditions (i.e., risks to performance outcomes), and the CAOI indicates potential adaptive opportunities (i.e., plausible strategies to adapt to changing conditions). We apply the indices to retrospectively examine the prevalence of potentially sensitive and adaptive practices among a global set of 2440 LEED-certified projects. Adaptive opportunities were more prevalent than sensitivities in the LEED-NC rating system. The CSI and CAOI indices illustrate how information can be derived by interpreting patterns of LEED credit achievement. The indices will be available within a suite of analytical tools in the Green Building Information Gateway (www.gbig.org).
Article
This paper uses probabilistic climate change data from the UK Climate Change Projections 2009 to define extreme climate change in order to model the effect of future temperature change, particularly summer overheating on the energy consumption of, and comfort in, existing English homes (located in Oxford). Climate change risk is then analysed as a factor of climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability. With the risk of overheating theoretically identified, the risk of overheating and the future change impact on space heating energy use is then virtually detailed for four English home types modelled using future weather years in a dynamic simulation modelling software (IES). A range of passive adaptation measures are then critically reviewed with regard to their effectiveness in minimising the negative impacts of climate change and to identify the most effective measures in reducing or eliminating the negative impacts of climate change on comfort and energy consumption. In addition the adaptation options are grouped and tested as packages in order to identify the optimal solution for adaptive retrofitting of English homes. For all homes modelled, user-controlled shading proved to be the most effective adaptation. Increasing the surface albedo of the building fabric and exposure of thermal mass were also revealed to be effective although proving to be complicated and requiring detailed consideration of the optimal locations. Ultimately among the passive options tested, the research found that none could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in the homes, particularly by the 2080s.
Article
This article reports on the use of building performance simulation to quantify the risks that climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. Through a number of case studies the article demonstrates that any prediction of the probable thermal building performance on the long timeframes inherent in climate change comes with very large uncertainties. The same cases are used to illustrate that assessing the consequences of predicted change is problematic, since the functions that the building provides in themselves often are a moving target. The article concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictions. Further research that is needed to move to more effective discussion about risk acceptance and risk abatement for specific buildings is identified.
Article
The uncertainty surrounding projections of climate change has left the building design community in a quandary. Should they assume a worst case scenario, and recommend adaptations to designs that might prove to be unnecessary and quite possibly costly? Or should they increase the risk to the occupants by selecting a less pessimistic vision of the future? It is well known that structural adaptations, such as additional thermal mass, can help moderate internal conditions as can behavioural adaptations, such as opening windows. Here the relative magnitudes of structural and non-structural (behavioural) adaptations are reflected upon, with the specific intent of discovering whether non-structural adaptations might have a great enough effect to offset any errors from selecting what proves to be (in 40 years time) an erroneous choice of climate change projection. It is found that an alteration to how a building is used is as equally important as common structural adaptations, and that the risk of choosing what turns out to be an incorrect climate change projection can be dealt with by seeing non-structural adaptations as a way of nullifying this risk.
Article
This paper discusses and summarises a recent systematic study on the implication of global warming on air conditioned office buildings in Australia. Four areas are covered, including analysis of historical weather data, generation of future weather data for the impact study of global warming, projection of building performance under various global warming scenarios, and evaluation of various adaptation strategies under 2070 high global warming conditions. Overall, it is found that depending on the assumed future climate scenarios and the location considered, the increase of total building energy use for the sample Australian office building may range from 0.4 to 15.1%. When the increase of annual average outdoor temperature exceeds 2 °C, the risk of overheating will increase significantly. However, the potential overheating problem could be completely eliminated if internal load density is significantly reduced.
Article
Recent activity in the development of future weather data for building performance simulation follows recognition of the limitations of traditional methods, which have been based on a stationary (observed) climate. In the UK, such developments have followed on from the availability of regional climate models as delivered in UKCIP02 and recently the probabilistic projections released under UKCP09. One major area of concern is the future performance and adaptability of buildings which employ exclusively passive or low-energy cooling systems.One such method which can be employed in an integral or retrofit situation is direct or indirect evaporative cooling. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling is most strongly influenced by the wet-bulb depression of the ambient air, hence is generally regarded as most suited to hot, dry climates. However, this technology has been shown to be effective in the UK, primarily in mixed-mode buildings or as a retrofit to industrial/commercial applications.Climate projections for the UK generally indicate an increase in the summer wet-bulb depression, suggesting an enhanced potential for the application of evaporative cooling. The paper illustrates this potential by an analysis of the probabilistic scenarios released under UKCP09, together with a detailed building/plant simulation of case study building located in the South-East of England. The results indicate a high probability that evaporative cooling will still be a viable low-energy technique in the 2050s.
Article
Net-zero energy buildings (NZEBs) are expected to play an important role in fighting climate change and reducing the energy use of the built environment. But even if the best design practices are widely adopted and implemented, this will only mitigate global warming. It is too late to prevent it. Yet buildings – including net-zero energy buildings – are often designed using historical data representing the average climate between 1961 and 1990, or between 1976 and 2005 at best.This paper investigates the use of the downscaling method known as “morphing”, proposed by Belcher et al. (2005), to generate weather data files. The impact of using these weather files on the energy performance of an actual NZEB is then assessed. Morphing is applied to typical “horizon years” representative of future climate and also on a month-by-month and year-by-year basis using raw data from a selected GCM. A 50-year series of hourly weather data is obtained and analyzed for two different locations, Montréal (QC) and Massena (NY). The data are then used to simulate the performance of a net-zero energy home as it was designed using historical data. The results show that the building misses the net-zero energy target for most years. The year-to-year variability of the total energy use is relatively small but the impact on the energy excess or shortage in relation to the net-zero target is significant. climate-sensitive buildings such as NZEBs should always be designed using multi-year simulations with weather data that take climate change into account.
Article
This paper outlines the conditions for, and challenges of, adapting suburbs in England for climate change. The paper introduces the ‘suburb’ as a spatial setting vulnerable to climate change related threats that have been largely absent from previous adaptation studies. It argues that in terms of the impacts of climate change on the daily lives of the UK’s population suburban neighbourhoods need far more attention. It sets out a typology of English suburbs (including inner-historic suburbs, pre-war garden suburbs, interwar suburbs, social housing suburbs, car suburbs, and medium-high density suburbs), and argues that these suburbs will experience both gradual changes in climate and extreme events. The changes will have impacts on ’place’ and ’people’, and modifications to the physical environment to respond to climate change will need to take place if they are to be sustainable in the future. Modifications can be at different scales: home and/or garden and/or neighbourhood. However, whether or not such modifications to the physical environment will be implemented is a function of the ‘response capacity’ in the suburb: and this is determined partly by the existing physical conditions of the suburb, and partly by economic, governance, knowledge and cultural contexts. The paper describes the conditions that underlie the response capacity in suburbs, and reveals the complexity of attempting to ‘climate proof’ some of the most established and valued parts of the English urban landscape.
Article
Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but much of the social and economic costs associated with climate change in the built environment will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events. In this study, the consequences of the climate change scenarios on the design wind speeds used in building regulations are discussed. Based on the best actual available knowledge of climate change models, the effect of climate change implies a change of −0.8% to +2.3% in the hourly mean wind speed with return period of 50 years, which is the basis of current building codes. To confirm the outcomes, further development of climate change scenarios is needed with more focus on extreme events with large return periods and small time scales. Natural variability of wind speed appears to have a great effect on wind trends for extreme wind velocities, and when adapting values for extreme climatic effects in building codes, both climate change effects and effects of natural variability should be considered. The analysis as presented for extreme wind speeds can be applied to other domains, such as thermal and precipitation where extreme values of climatic conditions define building design, and can therefore serve as general framework to assess extreme events.