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The effect of using consumption taxes on foods to promote climate friendly diets – The case of Denmark
Abstract
Agriculture is responsible for 17–35% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions with livestock production contributing by approximately 18–22% of global emissions. Due to high monitoring costs and low technical potential for emission reductions, a tax on consumption may be a more efficient policy instrument to decrease emissions from agriculture than a tax based directly on emissions from production. In this study, we look at the effect of internalising the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions through a tax based on CO2 equivalents for 23 different foods. Furthermore, we compare the loss in consumer surplus and the changed dietary composition for different taxation scenarios. In the most efficient scenario, we find a decrease in the carbon footprint from foods for an average household of 2.3–8.8% at a cost of 0.15–1.73 DKK per kg CO2 equivalent whereas the most effective scenario led to a decrease in the carbon footprint of 10.4–19.4%, but at a cost of 3.53–6.90 DKK per kg CO2 equivalent. The derived consequences for health show that scenarios where consumers are not compensated for the increase in taxation level lead to a decrease in the total daily amount of kJ consumed, whereas scenarios where the consumers are compensated lead to an increase. Most scenarios lead to a decrease in the consumption of saturated fat. Compensated scenarios leads to an increase in the consumption of added sugar, whereas uncompensated scenarios lead to almost no change or a decrease. Generally, the results show a low cost potential for using consumption taxes to promote climate friendly diets.
... It is also important to consider any potentially regressive effects of a tax and to design the tax to reduce negative outcomes, in terms of both the financial impact on households and health inequities. While GHG food taxes are internationally regarded as potential instruments to help achieve emissions reduction [16], clear gaps in the evidence-base exist [17,18]. The appropriateness and efficacy of taxes are likely to vary across different contexts, and the different ways food taxes can be designed and implemented will also affect the impact of a tax. ...
... Following review, there were 28 included studies, of which 27 were modelling studies, with 1 cost-benefit modelling analysis [39]. The locations of these studies were the UK (5) [17,[40][41][42][43], international (4) [44][45][46][47], Spain (4) [48][49][50][51], the EU (3) [52][53][54], France (3) [55][56][57], Sweden (2) [58,59], the Netherlands [39], Switzerland [60], Denmark [18], Canada [61], Australia [62], Norway [63] and Belgium [4]. Seven studies also included a subsidy on food groups [18,28,34,37,40,46,50]. ...
... The locations of these studies were the UK (5) [17,[40][41][42][43], international (4) [44][45][46][47], Spain (4) [48][49][50][51], the EU (3) [52][53][54], France (3) [55][56][57], Sweden (2) [58,59], the Netherlands [39], Switzerland [60], Denmark [18], Canada [61], Australia [62], Norway [63] and Belgium [4]. Seven studies also included a subsidy on food groups [18,28,34,37,40,46,50]. Seven had a fixed percentage tax on food products [39,42,43,49,51,56,63]. ...
Policies to mitigate climate change are essential. The objective of this paper was to estimate the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) food taxes and assess whether such a tax could also have health benefits in Aotearoa NZ. We undertook a systemised review on GHG food taxes to inform four tax scenarios, including one combined with a subsidy. These scenarios were modelled to estimate lifetime impacts on quality-adjusted health years (QALY), health inequities by ethnicity, GHG emissions, health system costs and food costs to the individual. Twenty-eight modelling studies on food tax policies were identified. Taxes resulted in decreased consumption of the targeted foods (e.g., −15.4% in beef/ruminant consumption, N = 12 studies) and an average decrease of 8.3% in GHG emissions (N = 19 studies). The “GHG weighted tax on all foods” scenario had the largest health gains and costs savings (455,800 QALYs and NZD 8.8 billion), followed by the tax—fruit and vegetable subsidy scenario (410,400 QALYs and NZD 6.4 billion). All scenarios were associated with reduced GHG emissions and higher age standardised per capita QALYs for Māori. Applying taxes that target foods with high GHG emissions has the potential to be effective for reducing GHG emissions and to result in co-benefits for population health.
... There is a constant public debate about increasing the price for meat and dairy products as an environmental policy in Germany and Europe in order to reduce meat consumption. For different motivations, researchers are therefore debating tax approaches to integrate negative externalities and pricing the costs of consuming animal products for the environment, health and a sustainable diet (FÖS, 2020;TAPP Coalition, 2020;Vergeer, et al., 2020;FAO & WHO, 2019;Buckwell & Nadeu, 2018;Springmann, et al., 2018a;Springmann, et al., 2018b;Caro, Frederiksen, Thomsen, & Branth Pedersen, 2017;Giubilini, Birkl, Douglas, Savulescu, & Maslen, 2017Vranken et al., 2014Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Nordgren, 2012;and others). From an environmental perspective, meat and dairy consumption in general are associated with primary effects on climate, water, soil and biodiversity, as well as secondary effects on air, health, and the availability and quality of raw materials (Allen & Hof, 2019;Hunter & Röös, 2016). ...
... In the following we focus on a consumption taxation approach. Due to high monitoring costs and low technical potential for emission reductions in production, a consumption tax may be more efficient to reduce external costs than a tax based directly on production (Caro, Frederiksen, Thomsen, & Branth Pedersen, 2017;Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Nordgren, 2012). External costs of consumption will then be reduced, irrespective of where the goods were produced (Caro, Frederiksen, Thomsen, & Branth Pedersen, 2017). ...
... They found that a significant reduction in harmful emissions by at least 27 per cent can occur in reaction to the taxes. Edjabou & Smed (2013) calculate the effects of GHG based food taxes and showed most significant decreases in climate impacts caused by consumption reductions in meat and dairy products. They explain the results by income effects due to general price increase combined with substitution effects due to cross-price elasticities. ...
The increase in value added tax (VAT) on meat and dairy products has been under discussion as a possible instrument for reducing meat consumption. The aim of this paper is to critically question whether a VAT adjustment is a suitable instrument to promote lower meat consumption, more sustainable production and less waste as political objectives. The focus of the discussion is the possibility of a switch to quality to promote higher quality products, like organic produced meat, by rising a per unit tax. Based on findings from interdisciplinary literature, the paper argues for a less but better strategy towards a more sustainable consumption. Less is defined as an overall reduction in consumption, while better defines the increase of organic production in the livestock sector. The paper states three arguments for a per unit tax on meat and dairy products. Firstly, the reduction of the total quantity in the market is achieved. Secondly, switch to quality behavior leads to a larger share of higher quality in the overall market. Thirdly, a per unit tax is stable against freeriding and rebound effects. Appropriate designed with a redistribution system of tax revenues, a per unit tax could meet with acceptance.
... Säll (2018) has used this data to assess the impact on different household income groups despite not being able to estimate household-specific elasticities. Other studies use elasticities from a linear AIDS to predict changes in consumption at the product and nutrient level for Denmark (Edjabou and Smed, 2013) and Norway (Abadie et al., 2016). An environmental tax on animal products was also analysed for France by Bonnet et al. (2018) and by Caillavet et al. (2016) and for Spain by Dogbe and Gil (2018). ...
... In our analysis we follow Säll and Gren (2015) and Edjabou and Smed (2013) and aggregate goods at the category/species level, i.e. for the commonly consumed meat categories poultry, pork, and beef & veal rather than focusing on individual cuts as done in Bonnet et al. (2018). However, rather than using time series data at the national level as done in those papers, we use household scanner data to estimate demand elasticities and simulate the impact of different carbon tax scenarios. ...
... We model demand for four subgroups of fresh meat in Germany based on Deaton and Muellbauer's (1980) AIDS, as applied in Säll (2018), Säll and Gren (2015), Thiele (2008), Jensen et al. (2016), and Edjabou and Smed (2013). Household expenditure shares result from cost minimisation as: ...
This paper assesses the effect of different meat tax designs in Germany including increasing the value-added tax as well as two climate-gas-emission-sensitive excise tax scenarios. For the simulation study, we first estimate price and expenditure elasticities for fresh meat for different household types using data from the GfK ConsumerScan FreshFood panel over the period 2012–14. The estimated elasticities are used to derive budget and welfare effects for the tax scenarios. A general rise in the value-added tax from 7% to 19% leads to a welfare loss of 0.83 euros per household per month. Disentangling the effect by household group according to income and age shows that low-income and older households experience a higher welfare loss and bear a larger tax burden relative to their income compared to low-income and younger households, respectively. Comparing the different taxation scenarios highlights the comparative efficiency of excise taxes and the importance to consider effects on older households.
... Westhoek et al. (2014) estimated that halving the global consumption of animal products would raise N use efficiency by 100% and reduce NH 3 emissions by 40%. Output taxes on animal products could benefit not only the environment but also human health, as the consumption of saturated fat would decrease (Edjabou and Smed, 2013). Moreover, global greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by 40-55% with a diet regarded as healthy in terms of saturated fat intake (Abadie et al., 2016). ...
... Previous studies have suggested that food taxes do not lead to better environmental performance in production. Food taxes offers no incentive for more environmentally friendly production and thus its effect on environmental impact is rather small (Edjabou and Smed, 2013). Particularly in terms of N pollution, a differentiated policy is needed because uniform policies do not consider local critical loads that should not be exceeded. ...
... Abadie et al. (2016) found that an output tax had the potential to reduce environmental emissions by 10% with a 40% beef price increase in Norway. Similarly, Edjabou and Smed (2013) reported that an output tax of 0.15-1.73 Danish krone per kg of greenhouse gas emissions could reduce such emissions by 10-20% in Denmark. ...
CONTEXT
Most Western-European countries exceed the critical loads for nitrogen (N) losses. High nitrogen (N) inputs make agriculture one of the largest contributors to N pollution. There might be a potential to reduce this losses with an output tax on animal products, as they have low N use efficiency and a tax has the potential to reduce the consumption of this products.
OBJECTIVE
We want to assess the potential of a food tax on animal products to reduce the N surplus of Swiss agriculture.
METHODS
We implemented a tax on meat and a tax on milk and meat in the agent-based model SWISSland. The model combines an agent-based model with a microeconomic model at the farm scale. To better understand the low response of the food tax, we applied in a second step a robust two-step global sensitivity analysis of abatement costs of individual model agents.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Imposing a tax led to an N surplus reduction of 2.1% where only meat was taxed and 2.3% where both milk and meat were taxed. The sensitivity analysis showed that distinct agents reacted non-uniformly to changing prices, so that the effect of the tax was sometimes even cancelled out. This calls for more differentiated policies to reduce the negative impact of N losses.
SIGNIFICANCE
The overall impact of the food tax was minor as the distinct agents react not uniformly to lower producer prices.
... Yet, the suggested tax levels and effects differ. For example, Ex ante modeling studies exploring various carbon taxation scenarios have consistently predicted population-level shifts toward low carbon foodstuffs (Briggs et al., 2013;Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Gren et al., 2019;S€ all & Gren, 2015;Springmann et al., 2017). For instance, Wirsenius et al. (2011), estimated that up to 32 million tons of CO 2 e could be avoided by the introduction of an EU-wide weighted tax on animal food products with e60 per ton CO 2 e. Briggs and colleagues (2016) claim that a tax of only £28.61/tCO 2 e on food items could save 7850 kilotons of CO 2 e. ...
... In line with previous research (Briggs et al., 2013Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Gren et al., 2019;Springmann et al., 2017), the presentation of carbon taxation on meal choices will encourage people to choose more sustainable options (lower CO2e) compared to Baseline. ...
... In addition, attitudinal data also suggest that approval was lower for a carbon tax relative to compared to the use of subsidies and the two behavioral change interventions. Field studies have found that taxes can effectively shift food choices toward healthier options (Block et al., 2010;Cornelsen et al., 2017;Elbel et al., 2013;French, 2003), or toward low carbon foodstuffs (Briggs et al., 2013Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Gren et al., 2019;S€ all & Gren, 2015;Springmann et al., 2017). Also, consistent with this, economic modeling studies have predicted that carbon pricing will be an effective means of shifting consumption toward low C0 2 e foods (Briggs et al., 2013Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Gren et al., 2019;Springmann et al., 2017). ...
Behavioral change techniques may show positive changes to sustainable consumption, but as with many other domains, how they interact with other typical regulatory measures is unknown. To address the empirical lacuna, the present study uses a discrete-choice set-up to simulate a lunchtime canteen in order to investigate the effects of choice preserving and choice incentivizing interventions on meal choices. Carbon tax (Experiment 1, Experiment 2) alone, behavioral interventions (Experiment 1) alone, as well in combination (Experiment 1, Experiment 2) shifted choices to a less degree than in combination. The most compelling positive behavioral change was found when introducing a redistributive pricing system that combines carbon tax and subsidies (Experiment 2), in combination with choice preserving instruments (Experiment 2, Experiment 3).
... In order to induce changes towards more sustainable food consumption, previous research has analysed several approaches, including (1) direct price intervention and taxation and limiting access (see Capacci et al., 2012;Dogbe & Gil, 2018;Edjabou & Smed, 2013), (2) nudging food choices into more climate-friendly directions, and (3) both information policies that appeal to fear to increase knowledge (Hunter & Röös, 2016;O'Neill & Nicholson-Cole, 2009) and information provisions (Cordts et al., 2014). Thus, to evaluate information policies and information provisions, it is paramount to have valid and reliable instruments that can quantify the acquisition of declarative knowledge about the climate externalities of food consumption. ...
... Con el fin de fomentar el cambio hacia un consumo de alimentos más sostenible, la investigación previa ha estudiado distintos enfoques, incluyendo (1) intervención directa sobre el precio, impuestos, y limitación de acceso (ver Capacci et al., 2012;Dogbe & Gil, 2018;Edjabou & Smed, 2013); (2) alentar una dirección más sostenible en la elección de alimentos; y (3) desarrollar políticas informativas que apelen al miedo para potencial el conocimiento (Hunter & Röös, 2016;O'Neill & Nicholson-Cole, 2009) y la aportación de información (Cordts et al., 2014). Así, para evaluar las políticas informativas y la aportación de información, es imprescindible contar con instrumentos válidos y fiables que puedan cuantificar la adquisición de conocimientos declarativos sobre las externalidades climáticas del consumo de alimentos, y así poder evaluar la efectividad de las intervenciones mencionadas para el cambio de las conductas dietéticas. ...
Research underscores the imperative for global dietary shifts to curb global temperature rise within the Paris Agreement’s 2°C limit. Understanding human dietary behaviour is crucial for effective environmental policies promoting pro-environmental actions. A significant obstacle is the lack of awareness regarding the CO2 implications of meat and dairy consumption, hindering sustainable diet adoption. Thus, evaluating knowledge-based interventions requires reliable tools to quantify climate impact knowledge related to food consumption. Unfortunately, existing pro-environmental knowledge measurement instruments lack domain specificity, leaving a void in assessing climate-conscious food choice knowledge. Addressing this void, our climate externalities food knowledge test was developed. It underwent calibration via item response theory with a German university student sample and validation across one German and two Chilean student samples. The resulting scale exhibited a strong approximate model fit, acceptable item fit metrics, good reliability and the ability to predict climate-relevant food-choice patterns and expert group performance. However, notable differential item functioning was observed based on cultural context. Our instrument provides a valuable contribution to understanding and promoting sustainable food choices on a global scale.
... Carbon tax can be used as a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions generated by food. By studying taxation scenarios, Edjabou and Smed (2013) and Briggs et al. (2013) found evidence of the effectiveness of carbon tax applied on food in decreasing carbon emissions. Similarly, by presenting a method to measure how food taxes based on greenhouse gas emissions impact at a household level, Kehlbacher et al. (2016) showed evidence for these taxes to be efficient in diminishing food related emissions. ...
... Concerning the studies that tested the effectiveness of a carbon tax, Edjabou and Smed (2013), Briggs et al. (2013), and Wirsenius et al. (2011) showed results in favour of the use of the tax to decrease carbon footprint. However, similar to previously mentioned studies, these studies investigated the tax through scenarios or with econometric analyses. ...
I investigated the impact of economic and non-monetary instruments on sustainable grocery consumption. I tested whether these instruments reduce carbon footprint of shopping baskets and increase CO2 knowledge in an experimental online grocery shop. In the first empirical chapter, I disentangled the price effect and psychological impact of carbon tax by testing the effect of price adjustments, injunctive norms, and tax salience on basket CO2. In the second experiment, the impact of traffic lights carbon labels were also tested. Over two experiments, little or no impact of carbon tax on consumption was found. However, I found that carbon labels decreased basket CO2. While tax signposts did not improve knowledge, carbon labels and norms did. In the second empirical chapter, I decomposed the psychological and price effect of bonus-malus tax by testing the effect of price adjustments, tax salience, and tax justification messages on basket CO2. In the second experiment, I tested whether carbon labels had an impact on basket CO2 and knowledge. Over two experiments, no effect of bonus-malus on basket CO2 was found. However, carbon labels decreased basket CO2 and improved knowledge. I found evidence for the impact of tax signposts on knowledge. Additionally, in these first two empirical chapters, it was found that knowledge was a mediator of the relationship between labels and consumption. In the third empirical chapter, I investigated the impact of goal setting techniques and of the provision of carbon footprint information about the products and the basket on consumption and compared their effectiveness. Over three experiments, it was found that goal-setting techniques were effective in reducing basket CO2. Multiple visits ameliorated knowledge, in the goal setting condition, even though it did not decrease basket CO2. While colour coded labels, on their own, did not have an impact on basket CO2, numerical labels did, after combing the data of two experiments.
... Recently, there has been increased interest in applying environmental taxes (e.g., carbon taxes) on food products to incentivize consumers to prefer less carbon-intensive products. Economic analyses have been conducted to study the impact of carbon-based taxes, especially in the meat sector (Bonnet et al., 2020;Caillavet et al., 2016), with findings suggesting that these taxes may have a positive effect on consumer choices by reducing their carbon footprint (CF) with a relatively low policy cost (Briggs et al., 2016;Edjabou and Smed, 2013). Informational interventions like food product labelling are aimed at supporting consumers in making choices that maximize their utility and preferences. ...
... Imposing a carbon content-related increase in price (RQ2), when controlling for context and table-related variables, seems to induce a choice of wine with a lower CF. This is consistent with the findings by Briggs et al. (2016) and Edjabou and Smed (2013). However, what seems to emerge from our experiment is that when Card 4 is used, CO 2 emissions tend to increase, i.e., consumers tend to choose higheremitting wines. ...
Growing evidence suggests that consumers should be involved in the solutions to climate change. To test the responsiveness of wine consumers to carbon footprint stimuli we set a natural field experiment in a restaurant modifying the choice architecture of wine decisions. We modified wine cards to provide different information and price incentives to consumers to test the effects of two policy interventions for reducing CO2 emissions. Specifically, we test the provision of carbon footprint information and an additional price for carbon emissions. We randomly assigned subjects to four different wine cards. Results show that carbon footprint information alone is not enough to affect wine choices, but its effect becomes significant when combined with a price change. A card showing the carbon footprint of wine bottles and proportionally higher wine prices was associated with choices leading to lower carbon emissions. However, when information about the additional price to offset wine carbon emissions was made explicitly visible to consumers on another card, an opposite effect of an increase in the choice of wines with higher carbon-emitting production processes was observed. This finding indicates that how the price increase is presented can affect wine choices, highlighting the importance of careful information policy design.
... Price elasticity is the change in demand for a product (%) for a given increase in price (%) (Andreyeva, Long, & Brownell, 2010). In five published modelling studies meat taxes were based on GHGE and other environmental metrics, and therefore beef received a higher price change (12-33% price increases) than pork (5-11%) and poultry (3-11%) (Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Kehlbacher, Tiffin, Briggs, Berners-Lee, & Scarborough, 2016;Säll & Gren, 2015;Springmann et al., 2017;Wirsenius, Hedenus, & Mohlin, 2011). In three of the five studies, price increases were predicted to decrease consumption of all meat types (Kehlbacher et al., 2016;Säll & Gren, 2015;Springmann et al., 2017). ...
... In three of the five studies, price increases were predicted to decrease consumption of all meat types (Kehlbacher et al., 2016;Säll & Gren, 2015;Springmann et al., 2017). However, in the other two studies the large increase in the price of beef, and the modest increase to pork and poultry prices, led to a decrease in beef but an increase in poultry (Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Wirsenius et al., 2011) and pork consumption (Wirsenius et al., 2011). Another possible unintended consequence of meat taxes is increased purchases from discount supermarkets, rather than dietary shifts away from meat (Jørgen Dejgård Jensen & Smed, 2013). ...
Reducing meat and fish consumption in wealthier countries would help mitigate climate change, raising the question of the most effective ways to achieve this. Price influences the food people buy, but to our knowledge no published field study has assessed the impact on sales of experimentally altering the price of meat and vegetarian meal options. We ran an experiment across 106 mealtimes with 13,840 meal selections at a college cafeteria in the University of Cambridge (UK), introducing a small change to the price of vegetarian meals (decreased by 20p from £2.05 to £1.85) and meat meals (increased by 20p from £2.52 to £2.72). Total meal sales did not differ significantly before and after the price change. When controlling for other variables, changing price significantly increased the proportion of vegetarian sales by 3.2 percentage points (p=0.036). However, there was no significant change in meat sales before and after the price change, although fish sales did decline by 2.8 percentage points (p=0.010). When analysed by individual diners' pre-experimental meal choices (N=325), the price intervention significantly affected only the quartile of diners with the highest prior rates of vegetarian and vegan meal selection ("MostVeg" quartile), who increased their vegetarian meal selection by 13.7 percentage points (p=0.011). Students mainly pay for meals on their university cards and rarely pay with cash, which may lessen the impact of a price intervention in this context. Our results suggest price changes may be one lever for increasing vegetarian meal consumption. Further field studies are needed to test different price changes, and in non-university populations.
... Due to a lack of empirical experimental data, estimates for the effects of price changes on meat consumption have generally been modelled based on assumptions of price elasticities for different products. In five published modelling studies meat taxes were based on GHGE and other environmental metrics, and therefore beef received a higher price change (12-33% price increases) than pork (5-11%) and poultry (3-11%) (Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Kehlbacher, Tiffin, Briggs, Berners-Lee, & Scarborough, 2016;Säll & Gren, 2015;Springmann et al., 2017;Wirsenius, Hedenus, & Mohlin, 2011). In three of the five studies, price increases were predicted to decrease consumption of all meat types (Kehlbacher, Tiffin, Briggs, Berners-Lee, & Scarborough, 2016;Säll & Gren, 2015;Springmann et al., 2017). ...
... In three of the five studies, price increases were predicted to decrease consumption of all meat types (Kehlbacher, Tiffin, Briggs, Berners-Lee, & Scarborough, 2016;Säll & Gren, 2015;Springmann et al., 2017). However, in the other two studies the large increase in the price of beef, and the modest increase to pork and poultry prices, led to a decrease in beef but an increase in poultry (Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Wirsenius et al., 2011) and pork consumption (Wirsenius et al., 2011). Another possible unintended consequence of meat taxes is increased purchases from discount supermarkets, rather than dietary shifts away from meat (Jørgen Dejgård Jensen & Smed, 2013). ...
Livestock farming is responsible for ~15% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and is a leading cause of deforestation, biodiversity loss, water-use and pollution. To feed 10 billion people a healthy and sustainable diet, approximately 16kg of meat consumption per person per year has been recommended, compared with current mean consumption (including waste) of 81kg in the EU and UK. How might lower meat consumption be encouraged? Research in other domains suggests altering the physical and economic environments in which people make decisions holds promise for achieving socially desirable behaviour change, but very little research has experimentally tested such approaches for reducing meat consumption. In this thesis I present the results of three different interventions (order, availability, price) in college cafeterias at the University of Cambridge and examine their effects on vegetarian meal sales. I collected data from 1142 mealtimes and 213,627 meal selections, obtaining individual level purchase information for two out of three interventions. It is widely assumed – but largely untested – that food encountered first in cafeterias is preferentially selected. I investigated the effects of order and found placing the vegetarian (rather than meat) option first increased vegetarian sales by 4.5 to 6 percentage points when there was a long distance (181cm) between options. However, order effects were inconsistent when the distance between options was shorter (<85cm). In contrast, I found that increasing the proportion of vegetarian options available was consistently very effective. Doubling vegetarian availability from 25% to 50% (e.g. from 1 in 4 to 2 in 4 options) increased vegetarian meal sales by 14.5 to 14.9 percentage points in an observational study and by 7.8 percentage points in an experimental study. Individual-level data revealed that the largest relative effects were found in the quartile of diners with the lowest prior levels of vegetarian meal selection, but all quartiles of diners were more likely to select a vegetarian option when more were available. Price is an important consideration for citizens when purchasing food. I experimentally decreased the vegetarian option price and increased the meat option price (each by 20p) halfway through a university term. Vegetarian sales increased overall by 3.2 percentage points, and by 13.7 percentage points in the most vegetarian quartile of diners. The other three quartiles did not significantly change their meal selections. None of the three interventions tested substantially affected overall meal sales. In the final data chapter I used individual-level data to examine the effects of gender on meal selection. I found that men were consistently less likely to select vegetarian meals than women, significantly more likely to select meat meals, and men and women were equally likely to select fish meals. Consequently on average men’s meals had average GHG emissions 18% higher and land-use 28% higher than women’s. Men and women were similarly responsive to the availability and price interventions. These findings have important implications for catering policies, although these interventions should be tested in non-university populations and low and middle income countries. Placing vegetarian options first can increase their sales, but can also have no effect or even be counterproductive. A small change in price may only be enough to increase vegetarian selection for the most vegetarian quartile of diners. However, increasing the availability of vegetarian options appears to increase vegetarian selection by all quartiles of diners and is a relatively simple change to catering practices. My results provide robust evidence that – if implemented more broadly – increasing the proportion of vegetarian options available could make an important contribution to the global ambition for more sustainable diets.
... However, several studies have shown that the price elasticity of demand for meat and dairy products with relatively large CO 2 eq emissions is low (e.g. Wirsenius et al., 2011;Edjabou and Smed, 2013;Säll and Gren, 2015;Chalmers et al., 2016;Jansson and Säll, 2018). Considerable increases in the price of meat are then required if a significant reduction in emissions is to be achieved. ...
... Several studies calculating effects of climate taxes on food goods have attributed emission coefficients to the goods in a life cycle analysis (LCA) perspective (e.g. Edjabou and Smed, 2013;Säll and Gren, 2015;Chalmers et al., 2016;Janson and Säll, 2018). The LCA calculates emission coefficient per unit food item from the 'cradle to the grave', which includes emissions at all production and processing steps of the good, such as use of fertilizers and transports. ...
This paper examines the implications of imposing a climate tax on food consumption in Sweden combined with refunding of the tax revenues to farmers for selected agricultural activities enhancing ecosystem services: restoration of drained peatland (carbon sequestration), maintenance of grassland (biodiversity), and construction of wetlands (nutrient regulation). A partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector is used to assess economic and environmental effects. The results show that the introduction of a climate tax corresponding to the existing Swedish CO2 tax of 115 euros per tonne carbon dioxide equivalent reduces total emissions from food consumption by 4.4% without any refunding of tax revenues. Refunding with payments for all ecosystems enhances the carbon sink by an amount equivalent to 57% of CO2e emissions from food consumption, and results in net benefits in the tax refund system for the agricultural sector as a whole, but is regressive where farmers in regions with relatively high incomes receive proportionally much of the net benefits.
... Meng (2015) analyzed the introduction of a carbon tax in the Australian agricultural sector and found that while it significantly reduces emissions, the cost of the tax can spread to other sectors of the economy, resulting in reduced production, employment, and earnings. Edjabou and Smed (2013) designed food taxes targeting livestock emissions and environmentally friendly diets, aiming to control greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Säll and Gren (2015) evaluated the environmental impact of an environmental tax on meat and dairy consumption in Sweden and found significant reductions in GHG, nitrogen, ammonia, and phosphorus emissions from livestock. ...
Introduction
Environmental taxation is an essential regulatory tool for governments seeking to optimize agricultural production, enhance the environment, and guarantee food safety. Concerns exist, however, regarding the imposition of environmental taxes on agriculture, as this could be detrimental to the interests of agricultural producers and consumers. To address these challenges, it is essential to integrate agricultural production, environmental protection, and economic development, which can better comprehend the effects of agricultural environmental taxes on production decisions, the environment, the economy, and society.
Methods
To better comprehend the effects of agricultural environmental taxes on production decisions, the environment, the economy, and society, this paper constructs a mathematical model and analyzes optimal outcomes from a welfare perspective. The study examines the structure of consumer groups, classifying them as either green or non-green.
Results and discussion
First, when both consumer groups coexist on the market, imposing environmental taxes on non-green agricultural producers does not always result in a reduction in social welfare. Within a specific tax range, it is possible to accomplish a tripling of social welfare, agricultural producer welfare, and environmental benefits. Second, as the tax rate rises, the environment progressively improves while consumer surplus diminishes. Within a particular tax range, producer surplus and social welfare both increase. Third, as the proportion of green consumers in the market and ordinary consumers’ awareness of green agricultural foods increases, the positive impact of taxation on the environment decreases, while its positive impact on producer surplus and consumer surplus increases. Taxation can also have a positive effect on the social welfare under certain conditions.
Contributions
First, we comprehensively investigate the feasibility of agricultural environmental taxation from a welfare perspective, considering market competition and segmentation, which fills a gap in previous studies. Second, we establish a reasonable range for taxation that simultaneously enhances social welfare, producer welfare, and environmental benefits. Third, we explore the relationship between market segmentation structure, ordinary consumers’ awareness of green agricultural foods, and welfare, providing insights into the different attitudes of countries and regions toward agricultural environmental taxation.
... Tällä hetkellä esimerkiksi autovero on Suomessa porrastettu ajossa syntyvien hiilidioksidipäästöjen mukaan. Tanskassa hiilijalanjälkiverotuksella arvioitiin saavutettavan 2,3-19,4 % pienennys ruokavalioiden hiilijalanjälkeen verotuksen tasosta riippuen (Edjabou & Smed, 2013). Elinkaarisiin päästöihin kohdistuva vero olisi kuitenkin mahdollista ulottaa useisiin tuoteryhmiin. ...
... While the production-based principle is likely to remain dominant, the consumptionbased principle offers valuable insights for climate mitigation policies [28]. Edjabou and Smed [29] observed that the agricultural sector meets the requirements for implementing consumption-based environmental taxes; they conducted scenario simulations and discovered that using consumption-based taxes to promote climate-friendly diets could be a cost-effective policy tool for reducing agricultural emissions. Existing studies have demonstrated the incentivizing role of environmental tax policies in achieving sustainable development goals for growth and development [30]. ...
China has implemented an environmental protection tax for large-scale agricultural farming to address environmental pollution caused by livestock and poultry breeding. Studying the environmental management of large-scale pig farming is crucial for controlling agricultural pollution. However, the economic impact and effectiveness of the current tax design, including responsibility sharing, tax rates, and taxpayers, are unclear. This study aims to address these gaps. Firstly, two types of taxation principles, production-based and consumption-based, are established, and their effects on pollution emissions distribution between pig production and marketing areas are comparatively analyzed. Secondly, the economic impact of consumption-based environmental taxes is estimated from inter-provincial and rural–urban perspectives under the current tax mechanism. Thirdly, a new alternative tax rate aligned with inter-provincial pig consumption levels is proposed based on the consumption principle. By comparing alternative tax systems, the potential impact of the current environmental tax on the regional economic burden is analyzed. The results highlighted that a production-based tax system resulted in 83% of regions experiencing varying degrees of implicit emission transfers, and a consumption-based tax system helped coordinate the environmental economic burden between pig production and marketing regions. Additionally, a linear relationship between tax rates and pork consumption expenditure not only alleviated the overall economic burden, leading to tax savings in 30% of regions, but also increased the national environmental revenue from the pig farming industry, resulting in a remarkable 147% rise in overall environmental tax revenue. These findings provide theoretical support for adjusting responsibility and economic burden through environmental tax modifications, facilitating the establishment of a compensation mechanism for the benefits between pig production and marketing areas.
... Alongside setting stricter rules and standards for producers, one potential intervention could be the introduction of a tax on meat and animal products. Modelling studies show that taxing meat and animal products could have strong steering effects, thus improving public health and reducing the environmental impact [14][15][16][17][18][19][20] . ...
A tax on meat could help address the climate impact and animal welfare issues associated with the production of meat. Through a referendum choice experiment with more than 2,800 German citizens, we elicited support for a tax on meat by varying the following tax attributes: level and differentiation thereof, justification and salience of behavioural effects. Only at the lowest tax level tested do all tax variants receive support from most voters. Support is generally stronger if the tax is justified by animal welfare rather than climate change mitigation. Differentiated taxes that link the tax rate to the harmfulness of the product do not receive higher support than a uniform tax; this indifference is not driven by a failure to anticipate the differential impacts on consumption. While the introduction of meat taxation remains politically challenging, our results underscore the need for policymakers to clearly communicate underlying reasons for the tax and its intended behavioural effect.
... J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f reasoned that the subsidy removes desirable social signals, that is, paying for the environment without getting a return, and creates feelings of unfairness due to governmental intervention (Panzone et al., 2011). Taxes were effective in reducing the carbon footprint (Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Latka et al., 2021), but it must be considered that greenhouse gas and carbon taxes are regressive, which means that households with lower incomes have to pay higher shares of their income on the tax (Feng et al., 2010). This effect can be diffused by taking redistributional measures. ...
The current food system is not sustainable, and food consumption contributes substantially to the climate crisis. Several challenges make it difficult for consumers to make sustainable food decisions. Therefore, policy action is indispensable to reduce the environmental impact of food choice. We present the results of a literature review of 160 studies, investigating four types of consumer-targeted policy instruments (market-based, information-based, regulatory, and nudging) and their potential to improve the sustainability of food systems. Our results show that (i) less intrusive policy instruments (information-based, nudging) are more popular and widespread and can be combined (however, more intrusive instruments [market-based, regulatory] are more effective); (ii) consumers rely on information-based instruments to make sustainable food choices and are willing to pay a price premium for sustainable products; and (iii) sociodemographic characteristics such as gender (female) and education level (higher) play a key role in sustainable food choices. Finally, we recommend improvements in the transparency of reporting methods and definitions used to describe sustainability of food products. This would increase the potential for comparison, transferability, and generalisability of findings and enable the development of effective policies. Sustainability is a pressing issue, and joint efforts along the food system are urgently called for.
... Furthermore, if unchecked, there will be an estimated 80% increase in global agricultural GHG emissions by 2050 [11]. Over the past decade, studies on health-related foods or dietary patterns that emit fewer GHGs have been actively conducted [12][13][14][15][16][17], with a particular focus on their associations with CVD [15][16][17]. In addition, several systematic reviews on diets with lower GHG emissions [18,19] or the relationships between diet-related GHG emissions and health outcomes, such as CVD [20], coronary heart disease [21,22], cancer [20][21][22], and death [20][21][22][23][24], have also been reported. ...
Objectives:
Despite a large contribution of the whole process from food production to dietary consumption to total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, there is just little and inconsistent evidence on the epidemiological association of daily diet-related GHG emission with chronic disease risk and even all-cause mortality. This systematic review and meta-analysis was on the observational epidemiological relationship between daily diet-related GHG emissions and health outcomes including the risk of chronic diseases and all-cause mortality.
Methods:
All original articles, published in English until May 2022, were identified by searching PubMed, Ovid-EMBASE, Web of Science, CINAHL, and google scholar. The extracted data were pooled using both fixed-effects and random-effects meta-analyses and presented as hazard and risk ratios with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI).
Results:
Finally, 7 cohort studies (21 study arms) were included for qualitative synthesis and meta-analysis. The GHGs emission of dietary consumption was significantly positively associated with the risk of chronic disease incidence and mortality in both fixed-effects and random-effects models [fixed: 1.04 (1.03; 1.05), random: 1.04 (1.02; 1.06)]. This positive association was robust regardless of how to group daily diet-related GHG emissions. A relatively animal-based diet showed higher GHG emissions. However, there were just a few studies on specific chronic diseases, subgroup analysis showed insignificant restuls. There was no evidence of publication bias among the studies (Egger's test: p = 0.79).
Conclusion:
In conclusion a relatively higher GHGs-emission-diet is associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality.
... Fiscal measures like levying carbon tax on food products could be a viable option for addressing the hidden cost associated with the foods and motivate a shift toward sustainable and healthy dietary patterns (Edjabou and Smed, 2013;Pieper et al., 2020). Though varying across regions, a global carbon emission tax would increase the market price of animal source products the most due to their substantially high GHG emissions and consequently the consumption of beef, milk, and lamb would have the most reduction (Springmann et al., 2017). ...
Food production for human consumption is a leading cause of environmental damage in the world and yet over two billion people suffer from malnutrition. Several studies have presented evidence that changes in dietary patterns across the world can lead to win-win outcomes for environmental and social sustainability and can complement ongoing technological and policy efforts to improve the efficiency of agricultural production. However, the existing evidence have been compiled in “silos” by a large range of researchers across several disciplines using different indicators. The aim of this quantitative review is to bring together the existing knowledge on heterogeneity of current dietary patterns across the world and how a transition toward healthy diets in different countries can aid in progress toward multiple global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We first summarize the nutritional quality, economic cost, and environmental footprint of current diets of over 150 countries using multiple indicators. Next, we review which shifts in dietary patterns across different world regions can help toward achievement of SDG2 (Zero hunger), SDG3 (Good health and wellbeing), SDG 6 (Clean water and sanitation), SDG13 (Climate action), SDG14 (Life below water), and SDG15 (Life on land). Finally, we briefly discuss how to enable the shift toward sustainable dietary patterns and identify the research and data gaps that need to be filled through future efforts. Our analysis reveals that dietary change is necessary in all countries as each one has unique priorities and action items. For regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, increased intake of nutrient dense foods is needed to address deficiency of essential nutrients like folate, potassium, and vitamin A. For North America and Europe, shifting toward more plant-based diets would be healthier and simultaneously reduce the per capita environmental footprints. The results can be useful for policymakers in designing country-specific strategies for adoption of sustainable dietary behaviors and for food industry to ensure the supply of sustainable food items customized with regions' need.
... It is therefore not yet clear whether, and to what extent, the observed trends would be affected by a potential tax on the carbon footprint of raw milk or a carbon tax on agricultural raw materials in general. In previous studies, Nordström and Thunström (2009) simulated the effects of tax reforms aimed at encouraging healthier grain consumption in Sweden, while Edjabou and Smed (2013) assessed application of consumption taxes on foods to promote climate-friendly diets in Denmark. Wirsenius et al. (2011) examined the emission mitigation potential of GHG-weighted consumption taxes on animal food products in the EU and found that the effect of a GHGweighted tax on animal food can be captured by taxing consumption of ruminant meat, while Säll investigated the effect of an environmental tax on meat consumption in Sweden (Säll, 2018;Säll and Gren, 2015). ...
A hypothetical carbon tax on the carbon footprint of fresh milk products from animals (cow’s milk) and plant-based substitutes (rice milk, oat milk, soy milk, almond milk) was applied to estimated price and income elasticities for Swedish household expenditure on these products. Overall aims were to (i) to estimate fresh milk consumption patterns in Swedish households and (ii) simulate the direct distributed effects of a carbon tax on fresh milk. The results indicated that fresh milk consumption in Swedish households is affected mainly by price and income, rather than by sociodemographic characteristics of the household. The estimates revealed a substitutional relationship between plant- based milk on one hand and low-fat and standard milk on the other, while there was a complementary relationship between plant-based and reduced-fat milk. The effects of a carbon tax were simulated based on damage cost and price. The results indicated that introduction of a carbon tax would decrease the carbon footprint of dairy fresh milk, but would increase the carbon footprint of plant-based milk because of the institutional and complementary relationship between the different categories of fresh milk. Thus levying a carbon tax on fresh dairy milk, rather than on plant-based milk, would be more likely to promote climate-friendly fresh milk consumption.
... Instruments aimed at improving cognitive capacity and regulatory measures, such as direct price interventions, taxation, and restrictions on access, have been proposed as policy measures for addressing the demand side of the market for animal-based products (Bryngelsson et al., 2016;Capacci et al., 2012;Dogbe & Gil, 2018;Edjabou & Smed, 2013;Springmann, Godfray, Rayner, & Scarborough, 2016). Nudges, which are less intrusive and cheaper, are small changes to decision architectures that do not constrain choice (Thaler & Sunstein, 2009). ...
Recently, it has been suggested that a shift towards diets with a lower carbon footprints, especially ones that emphasize the consumption of plants, is necessary to keep global heating below 2 °C. To address demand for animal-based products, we analyze if the effectiveness of anthropomorphic food labeling as a strategy for promoting plant-based diets is contingent on strong animal ethical beliefs. To this end, we conduct a stated choice experiment with Chilean university students (N = 1538). We manipulate the visual display of the main component of the dish attribute of the choice tasks, using anthropomorphic and non-anthropomorphic icons to frame the choice of meal options. Our results, which are based on a mixed logit model of the choice data and a linear regression analysis of its individual random parameters, suggest that displaying anthropomorphic icons reduces the likelihood of choosing beef or chicken over vegetables. However, the data provides insufficient evidence to claim an influence on the choice of fish over vegetables. The ethical intuitions that anthropomorphic animals evoke are related to a reduction in the consumption of beef and chicken but do not appear to affect preferences for fish. Our findings support the hypothesis that strong ethical concerns reinforce the effect of anthropomorphic nudges on beef consumption. The results for chicken and fish were inconclusive.
... The European Parliament is considering taxing meat so that its price covers environmental costs [110]. Edjabou and Smed [111] conducted a study which showed that the introduction of charges in the amount of DKK 150-1730 per 1 ton of CO2-equivalent emissions in Denmark could reduce the footprint from food production by 2.3-8.8%. ...
The analysis of the economic efficiency of agriculture has been the subject of numerous studies. An economically efficient agricultural sector is not always environmentally efficient. Agriculture is a large emitter of greenhouse gases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that food production and agriculture are responsible for 21–37% of total global CO2 emissions. Due to the comprehensive assessment of the agricultural efficiency, it is worthwhile to apply to its measurement an integrated approach based on economic, energy and environmental aspects. These aspects were the main reasons for undertaking this research. The purpose of the study was to determine the economic, energy and environmental efficiency of agriculture in the EU Member States in 2019. The environmental analyses relate to the period 1990–2019. A total of 26 member states of the European Union (excluding Malta and Luxembourg) were selected for research. The sources of materials were Eurostat and the European Environmental Agency. This study was based on the Data Envelopment Analysis method, and used the DEA model focused on minimizing inputs. The research also adopts energy productivity and greenhouse gas emission efficiency indicators. The DEA model features the following variables: one effect (value of agricultural production) and four inputs (land, labour, use of fertilizers and use of energy). It was found that seven out of the 26 studied EU countries have efficient agriculture. The efficient agriculture group included the Netherlands, Denmark, Greece, Cyprus, the United Kingdom, Italy and Ireland. Based on the DEA method, benchmarks have been defined for countries with inefficient agriculture. On the basis of these benchmarks for inefficient agricultural sectors, it was possible to determine how they could improve efficiency to achieve the same results with fewer inputs. This issue is particularly important in the context of sustainable agricultural development. In the next stage of the research, the analysis of economic and energy efficiency was combined with the analysis of GHG emission efficiency in agriculture. Four groups of countries have been distinguished: eco-efficiency leaders, eco-efficiency followers, environmental slackers, eco-efficiency laggards. The leaders of the classification were the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Portugal.
... However, besides subsidising the production and consumption of plant-based foods, increasing servings of sustainable diets in private and public institutions and food retail sectors (e.g. hotels and restaurants) and implementing eco-labelling of food products can be pivotal to nudging consumers towards sustainable foods (Edjabou and Smed, 2013;Vanham and Leip, 2020). ...
Agriculture constitutes a quarter and more than a third of Denmark's global greenhouses gas (GHG) emissions and natural resource consumption, respectively. This paper aims to estimate the potential to lower Denmark's global food-related GHG, blue water and land footprints using the most recent version of a hybrid global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) database, EXIOBASE of the reference year, 2011. Specifically, we apply the 'what if' scenario-based MRIO approach to EXIOBASE and quantify the impact of increased livestock feed efficiency (FE), dietary changes, food loss and waste (FLW) reduction/prevention and food waste treatment scenarios on Denmark's global food-related GHG and resource footprints. We obtain modest reductions in Denmark's global GHG, blue water and cropland footprint from the combination of livestock FE improvements and FLW reduction relative to the footprints; 61 kt CO2e, 2 Mm3 and 30 kha, respectively. In contrast, dietary change towards no/less meat and dairy diets embodies the most significant reductions potential for Denmark's total global food-related GHG, blue water, croplands and grassland footprint by up to 34% (3.63 Mt. CO2e), 8% (90 Mm3), 23% (371 kha) and 78% (386 kha) respectively. A key policy priority should therefore be the nudging of Danish consumers towards sustainable diets. Also, this study's findings emphasise that FLW prevention remains the most effective food waste-related climate mitigation and resource efficiency strategy despite the benefits of food waste valorisation.
... Wollenberg et al., 2016) as well as case studies demonstrating the effectiveness of consumption taxes and other measures in achieving this transition (e.g. Edjabou and Smed, 2013;Van de Kamp et al., 2018). These support the case for placing a major emphasis on changing consumer preferences in order to achieve a loweremissions food system. ...
Since agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions it is essential that the sector should not be excluded from measures that internalize the social costs of these emissions (their contribution to climate change and its negative effects on human wellbeing). But imposing carbon taxes at the production level in agriculture is challenging. To the extent that domestic production of food and agricultural products can be influenced by carbon taxes or other measures, the replacement of higher-emitting domestic products by lower-emitting imports will result in global carbon reallocation. However, carbon misallocation will result if imports of high-emitting products increase. Addressing this issue through the use of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) is challenging and likely to lead to trade disputes. BCAs may also inhibit changes in agricultural land use towards lower emitting products and a shift to carbon sequestration activities. While not without its own challenges, these difficulties argue for placing the emphasis on the use of price and non-price measures to induce changes in food consumption to a lower-emissions diet. Carbon footprinting using internationally agreed standards, such as those being developed by the International Standards Organization (ISO), could be used to impose taxes at the wholesale level on domestic products destined for home consumption or for export, and on imported products. The potential regressive effect of consumption taxes for food can be offset through selective income transfers funded by carbon tax revenues or by modifying food assistance programs targeted to low-income individuals. In addition to the incentives created by changes in the relative prices of high-and low-emissions foods, carbon labeling can be used to inform consumers about the footprint of their food choices in order to induce changes in consumption preferences. Labeling can also create a private incentive for product differentiation by food producers. The combination of price and non-price measures can provide a powerful combination for inducing a shift in the consumption and production of food to a low-emissions system.
... The research conducted in Denmark determined that the introduction of the burden at the level of 150-1730 DKK per 1 ton of CO 2 equivalent emissions results in a reduction of the emis−sion footprint from food production by 2.3-8.8% [85]. ...
The relationship between agriculture and climate change is two-sided. Agriculture is the branch of the economy most affected by the ongoing processes. It is also a large emitter of greenhouse gases and there are more and more voices about the need to reduce emissions. The purpose of the study was, based on FADN (Farm Accountancy Data Network) data, to determine the structure of greenhouse gas emissions in farms and to identify types of farms where it is possible to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions through better energy use. The emission volume was determined on the basis of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) methodology modified for the FADN data. The emissions related to the production of energy were found to be of minor importance compared to other emission sources. Only in the horticultural crop type is the emission from the Energy section the dominant stream of GHG emission. The greatest emissions come from livestock production. Therefore, the emphasis on reducing emissions should not be placed on the Energy sector because, except for the type of horticultural farm, there is not much potential for reduction. The introduction of taxes for GHG emissions at the level of 27.31 EUR/t would reduce farm income from 21% for the type of field crops to 40% for the type of herbivorous animals. The exception is low-emission permanent crops, where the decrease in income would be only 3.85%.
... Finally, we explore the internalisation of the framework's costs, such as with a tax on methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Unlike previous studies [22,23,28,58], we do not focus on using the tax to reduce emissions through highly inelastic demand-side effects and changes in production systems, but rather on using the tax as a revenue-raising tool to fund CDR offsetting. As part of this, we assess the change in price, over current retail price benchmark for a United States and global scenario, of three exemplary agricultural products (beef, milk, and rice) in the presence of such offsetting. ...
The Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), which is broadly compatible with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal by 1.5–2°C, contains substantial reductions in agricultural non-CO 2 emissions besides the deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Failing to mitigate agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions could contribute to an overshoot of the RCP2.6 warming by about 0.4°C. We explore using additional CDR to offset alternative agricultural non-CO 2 emission pathways in which emissions either remain constant or rise. We assess the effects on the climate of calculating CDR rates to offset agricultural emission under two different approaches: relying on the 100-year global warming potential conversion metric (GWP100) and maintaining effective radiative forcing levels at exactly those of RCP2.6. Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we find that the conversion metric leads to a systematic underestimation of needed CDR, reaching only around 50% of the temperature mitigation needed to remain on the RCP2.6 track. This is mostly because the metric underestimates, in the near term, forcing from short-lived climate pollutants such as methane. We test whether alternative conversion metrics, the GWP20 and GWP*, are more suitable for offsetting purposes, and found that they both lead to an overestimation of the CDR requirements. Under alternative agricultural emissions pathways, holding to RCP2.6 total radiative forcing requires up to twice the amount of CDR that is already included in the RCP2.6. We examine the costs of this additional CDR, and the effects of internalizing these in several agricultural commodities. Assuming an average CDR cost by $150/tCO 2 , we find increases in prices of up to 41% for beef, 14% for rice, and 40% for milk in the United States relative to current retail prices. These figures are significantly higher (for beef and rice) under a global scenario, potentially threatening food security and welfare. Although the policy delivers a mechanism to finance the early deployment of CDR, using CDR to offset remaining high emissions may well hit other non-financial constraints and can thus only support, and not substitute, emission reductions.
... Fruits and nuts, in particular, tend to be more expensive than other foods, and therefore are consumed in higher amounts by individuals in the highest category of SES than by those in the medium and low categories (26). Likewise, carbon taxes that incorporate the cost of GHG emissions into the cost of food have the potential of reducing the intake of unhealthy foods, improving health, reducing GHG emissions, and raising revenue (27)(28)(29)(30)(31). However, research and simulation models are required to examine the feasibility and potential effects, including the unintended effects, of policies such as the carbon taxes. ...
Background:
Dietary recommendations worldwide have focused on promoting healthy diets to prevent diseases. In 2019, the EAT-Lancet Commission presented global scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production and proposed a healthy reference diet (EAT-HRD) that can be adapted to the culture, geography, and demography of the population and individuals in any country.
Objectives:
We aimed to describe the daily energy intake from food groups and subgroups in Mexican adults relative to the EAT-HRD and propose an adaptation of the EAT-HRD to the Mexican context.
Methods:
We analyzed data from the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Surveys in 2012 and 2016. Diet information was obtained using the 5-step multiple-pass 24-h dietary recall method. We estimated the mean energy intake from food groups and subgroups and compared these figures with the midpoint of the EAT-HRD and with the Mexican Dietary Guidelines (MDGs). We also proposed an adaptation of the EAT-HRD to the Mexican context based on the mean energy intake and the comparison between the MDGs and the EAT-HRD.
Results:
Mexican adults consume higher than the EAT-HRD for grains (mostly refined), dairy, added sugars, and animal-based proteins (particularly red meat, poultry, eggs, and processed meats); and lower than the EAT-HRD for vegetables, fruits, legumes, nuts, tubers and starchy vegetables, fish, and added fats. Based on these findings, we propose a healthy and sustainable reference diet adapted for the Mexican population.
Conclusions:
Mexican adults have a diet that is far from being healthy and is not sustainable. The adaptation of the EAT-HRD to the Mexican context is a timely input for current government efforts to move to a sustainable and healthy food system, including the update of the current MDGs.
... These are taxes where the costs of negative externalities from meat and/or other animal-based production are determined and passed on to the consumers. Next to the expected decrease of meat purchases, the money gained from the tax can be used to fund carbon friendly alternatives (Abadie et al., 2016;Edjabou and Smed, 2013;S€ all and Gren, 2015). Similar effects could be reached by reducing subsidies for environmentally problematic agricultural products. ...
The human-food sector is one of the most challenging areas when it comes to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction. In this study, recipes from similar cookery books were analysed to identify the extent to which CO2 reduction can be achieved cost-effectively by cooking vegan, ovo-lacto-vegetarian or meat-containing recipes. A total of 311 recipes from six different German omnivorous, vegetarian and vegan cookery books were analysed in terms of GHG emissions and costs. The results illustrate that, based on calories, the vegan recipes on average lead to a 10% reduction in GHGs compared to vegetarian recipes and a 65% reduction compared to recipes high in meat. The costs for vegan recipes are 45% higher than those for vegetarian recipes. The relatively high prices for vegan dishes result from the cost of meat and dairy replacement products. Overall, GHG emissions from vegan recipes are only slightly lower than those from vegetarian recipes.
... Public policies also affect food prices through agricultural subsidies Irz 2013, OECD 2020) and taxation (Wirsenius et al. 2011, Edjabou and Smed 2013, OECD 2020. In the future, the interplay between agricultural subsidies and taxation need to be assessed together to better understand how they can be used to support climate friendly production and consumption. ...
This study examined what kind of policy instruments and actions are needed for sustainable dietary change and how a large-scale dietary change would impact the climate, thus analysing the economic impacts of transitioning from animal-based diets to alternative plant-based diets. The transition would require the support of horizontal measures that can be implemented throughout the food system. Shifting the emphasis toward the drivers of food demand and consumption will increase the role of new policy instruments and the actors involved in the food system. Collaborative research between environmental and nutritional sciences with economics and policy analysis is necessary to link nutritional health and environmental objectives with economic and social impacts. Less resource-demanding diets would reduce the impact from the food system and lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Drastic changes in diets and food consumption in Finland would have an impact on primary agricultural production, but the output from the food processing industry would only be slightly affected. However, a successful transition would involve considerable investments in the agricultural and food industry.
... A comparative analysis of food demand and its determinants in six EU countries T he development of effective policy to steer consumers towards more sustainable diets requires an understanding of preferences for food and drivers of food demand. For instance, the idea of taxing or subsidizing foods differentially to encourage consumption of relatively healthier and more environmentally friendly options has been discussed in many countries and implemented in some (Edjabou and Smed, 2013;Caillavet et al., 2016), but the effects of such measures depend on how much demand for different foods responds to prices, as well as substitutions across the whole diet. Even in the case of more traditional policy measures such as the promotion of dietary recommendations through the provision of information to consumers, success hinges on the rela-tive ease of the required dietary adjustments, which is itself a function of the willingness of consumers to substitute foods for one another. ...
This cross-country investigation of food demand and its determinants confirmed a number of stylized facts: first, consumers respond to prices and the law of demand applies to all foods at a fairly high level of product disaggregation; second, most food products are necessities, as their demand responds positively but less than proportionally to changes in consumption expenditure, implying that Engle’s law is also ve-rified in all countries; third, for all countries, some cross-price elasticities are both statistically significant and relatively large, which confirms the necessity of considering whole diets rather than only subsets of foods when analyzing policies to enhance the sustainability of food consumption patterns. Beyond those well-known regularities, however, the analysis indicates that demand relationships remain highly specific to each country.
Es necesario basar nuestras dietas en alimentos de origen vegetal, reduciendo el consumo de alimentos de origen animal y evitando el consumo de alimentos altamente procesados.
Los alimentos deben ser de temporada, de proximidad
y producidos de una manera sostenible, y en los que se
debe evitar el uso de envases plásticos innecesarios.
Es necesario implementar políticas públicas para fomentar
una transición alimentaria entre la ciudadanía hacia la
reducción del desperdicio alimentario y el fomento del consumo responsable, esto, junto a la modificación de la dieta hacia pautas más saludables y sostenibles, pueden ser una estrategia eficaz para luchar contra el cambio climático, evitar la conflictividad social a gran escala y garantizar a las próximas generaciones el abastecimiento de alimentos.
El Libro Blanco de la Alimentación Sostenible en España, realizado por la Fundación Alternativas y la Fundación Carasso, identifica y propone las principales claves para lograr una transición hacia sistemas alimentarios sostenibles y resilientes. Este objetivo se plasma en cada uno de los 13 capítulos temáticos que componen el volumen, a través de una serie de medidas recogidas a modo de propuesta para su implementación por parte de los tomadores de decisiones. En definitiva nace como un referente para conciliar nuestro sistema alimentario con las necesidades del planeta y para responder positivamente a la demanda de los españoles de una alimentación saludable, equitativa y respetuosa con el medio ambiente.
Meat‐focused diets are highly debated considering their environmental and health consequences. A change in consumption patterns in industrialized countries seems inevitable. To inform marketers and policymakers on how to mitigate meat consumption as a means of obtaining sustainability goals, the present study identifies consumer segments based on their actual purchases of fresh meat cuts using German household scanner data for the year 2014. Our revealed‐preference approach suggests that pork and beef traditionalists and convenience‐oriented pork buyers may react to financial incentives. Poultry and premium red meat lovers may be influenced by targeted labeling and quality signals. Overall, low‐meat consumption patterns seem to be less prevalent in Germany than commonly portrayed.
Background
Fiscal policies on food can effectively fight the growing burden of non-communicable diseases and climate change. These policies should be modeled in advance to see the implications for the environment and health. The aim of this study was to analyze these modeling methodologies.
Methods
We conducted a systematic review, searching Scopus and Pubmed for studies that modeled fiscal policies on the food groups targeted by the EAT-Lancet Commission and examined their health or environmental outcomes. We then double-screened the records, and extracted data on modeling methods from the 55 included studies. The review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (2022 CRD42022291945).
Results
The most frequently modeled interventions were fruit and vegetable subsidies and carbon taxes on food. One study also included a consumer education campaign to enhance the effect of fiscal policy. The outcomes are highly sensitive to consumption change and price elasticities. The stability of the amount of diet consumed was modeled 6 times with calorie stability, and twice with dietary weight stability. The outcomes were also sensitive to diseases and the system boundaries of environmental impacts. None of the studies modeled the health effects of environmental outcomes.
Conclusions
We did not find a model that covered all the relevant aspects of the issue. Some parts were missing from all the included models. It is advisable to model the stability of the amount of diet consumed, either by keeping the weight of the diet stable or by taking a more conservative approach and keeping the consumed calories stable. A fiscal policy is more equitable if a tax and a subsidy are combined to be less regressive. Additionally, an informational campaign as a complement could improve effectiveness. The included diseases and environmental boundaries are preferable to be broad to have more valid outcomes on this complex issue. A more comprehensive understanding of fiscal policies would allow us to better anticipate the impact of our actions and inactions and thus could lead to more sophisticated measures taken by policymakers.
Chapter 5 (Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation),
explores how mitigation interacts with meeting human needs and access to services. It explores, inter alia: sustainable production and consumption; patterns of development and indicators of wellbeing; the role of culture, social norms, practices and behaviour changes; the sharing economy and circular economy; and policies facilitating behavioural and lifestyle change.
This chapter is part of the Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Electronic copies of this chapter are available from the IPCC website www.ipcc.ch; and https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf
The low-carbon transition requires policies and behaviour changes that affect people's consumption habits. However, the impacts of the transition are likely to be experienced unevenly by consumers. Failing to account for these differences puts at risk the prospects of a just transition. This paper investigates the demand-side aspects of a just low-carbon transition, with a focus on the transport and food sectors in Sweden. It combines footprint analysis and sociodemographic and geographic analysis with an assessment of the distributional impacts of low-carbon transition policies from the perspectives of wealth, access, and health. The study finds variations in carbon footprint categories between those with higher or lower income and living in higher or lower density areas. It also finds varying degrees of ability to cope with the required shifts in the food and transport sectors. About 40 % of the Swedish population appears to be at higher risk from the adverse impacts on wealth and access related to policies aiming at low-carbon transition, because this cohort depends heavily on cars and is less able to cope with the increased price of carbon-intensive goods that these policies are expected to entail. The study also finds that, collectively, those most at risk of losing are responsible for 41 % of consumption-based emissions. The paper goes on to discuss implications for low-carbon transition policy measures and transitional assistance policy. Overall, it highlights the need for targeted, well-planned policies for emissions reductions and transitional assistance to support a fair low-carbon transition for all.
This study explores whether the widespread dissemination of Western-type culture and the globalization of food production and consumption that have characterized Italy for decades may have influenced red and processed meat consumption across generations. For the purpose of our study, we constructed a pseudo-panel derived from repeated cross-sections of the annual household survey, "Aspects of Daily Life," that was part of the Multipurpose Survey carried out by the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT) from 1997 to 2012. We adopted an APC (Age, Period, Cohort) approach that involves age, period, and cohort effects. We followed the experiences of four cohorts: the Silent Generation (born 1926-1945), the Baby Boomer 1 Generation (1946-1955), the Baby Boomer 2 Generation (1956-1965), and Generation X (1966-1980). Our results revealed that increases in disposable income, changes in women's role in society, and urbanization and globalization have had significant effects on consumption patterns. The analysis shows that the older generations have changed their diets more in favor of meat consumption than later generations, with more change in the relatively affluent north of the country compared with the south, while the youngest generations are more likely to adopt more healthful and environmentally sustainable eating patterns.
This article examines the effectiveness and consequences of using carbon taxes on food purchases to contribute to achieving the U.S. greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) reduction target for 2025. Using U.S. Department of Agriculture National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey data and the elasticities derived from the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model, we simulate multiple uncompensated or revenue-neutral carbon tax policy scenarios on different food groups. We apply a carbon tax rate that is proportional to the GHGEs generated throughout each foods lifecycle, computed using Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment. We evaluate the impact of the tax on 1) quantity of GHGEs mitigated and social welfare; 2) nutritional outcomes; 3) distributional implications. Our results show that carbon taxes on food purchases decrease GHGEs from the agricultural and food sectors by 1.9 to 4.8 percent and generate up to $839 billion 2012 dollars social welfare gain per year due to avoided GHGEs-related external costs. However, tradeoffs exist among climate, nutritional and distributional goals. For instance, the most effective policy in reducing GHGEs is regressive and generates the highest loss in consumer surplus per kilogram of emission reduction. Moreover, the quantity of health-promoting nutrients falls significantly in almost all scenarios. Overall, our findings show that the use of carbon taxes alone may not be the most effective way to reduce GHGEs from U.S. food purchases. Additional policies, such as subsidies on less carbon intensive foods, may be needed to encourage consumers of all income level to adopt more sustainable diets without increasing health and social inequalities.
Clarifying the water-food-carbon nexus is the key to promoting the harmonious development of human society and environmental resources. The sustainable development of agricultural production systems is being challenged by water scarcity and climate change. Crop growth and irrigation consume large amounts of water, and greenhouse gases are generated due to processes such as fertilizer application and enteric fermentation. These environmental impacts accompany the agricultural production process and are thus embedded in the entire life cycle of diverse food items; in turn, consumers’ food choices indirectly impact water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing agricultural water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions during food production have become crucial issues in mitigating the projected water, climate, and food crises. From the consumer perspective, diets vary regionally due to different natural conditions for food production and varying socio-economic and income levels. This review delves into the interactions between diet and its potential environmental impacts, including water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in order to support further development of the water-food-carbon nexus.
Reducing meat consumption is one of the most crucial recommendations for achieving more sustainable food consumption and mitigating the harm caused by climate change. The aim of this study was to provide a more comprehensive framework for understanding consumer intention to reduce meat consumption. This study examined three models that were based on protection motivation theory (PMT), the theory of planned behavior (TPB), and a combination of PMT and the theory of reasoned action (TRA). These three models were evaluated against each other with respect to their ability to effectively explain and predict consumer intention to reduce meat consumption. The sample comprised 671 respondents in Taiwan. Structural equation modeling analyses revealed that the explanatory power of the combined PMT and TRA model and the original PMT model are almost equivalent; they could explain more than 85% of the variation in consumer intention to reduce meat consumption. However, the combined PMT and TRA model can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the determinants of consumer intention to reduce meat consumption. Both threat appraisal and coping appraisal contributed to consumer protection motivation. The TPB model explained more than 75% of the variance in consumer intention to reduce meat consumption; moreover, attitude, subjective norms, and self-efficacy (a proxy for perceived behavioral control) were positive contributors. Although the TPB model is simple and has satisfactory explanatory power, the combined PMT and TRA model provided greater insights with higher explanatory power for consumer intention to reduce meat consumption.
The demand for meat and dairy products is expected to double by 2050 due to population growth and changing consumption patterns worldwide. According to the IPCC, meeting the target of keeping the global temperature rise below 2°C by the middle of the century calls for massive emission cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and natural resource use consumption associated with the global food system. In recent times, globalization and increased trade of food products have resulted in the displacement of environmental impacts related to local food consumption to regions overseas. Therefore, global mitigation options for agri-food climate- and resource use pressures requires that countries monitor and lower the environmental pressures from food consumption within and beyond their local borders. The current Danish environmental policy lays down ambitious targets to mitigate the territorial environmental impacts of Denmark’s agri-food industry, with GHG emissions, water quality and biodiversity at the centre of policy attention. However, a shortcoming of Denmark’s present climate and environmental policies is that they do not tackle the environmental pressures associated with food products consumed within Danish borders but produced overseas. In this context, a growing body of research proposes that allow country-specific estimation of environmental pressures from consuming locally sourced and imported products.
This PhD project applies two consumption-based (CB) environmental accounting methods, namely the environmentally extended multi-regional input-output analysis and biophysical model of agricultural trade to evaluate Denmark’s national and subnational food-related CB accounts (or footprints) for GHG emissions (i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)), and cropland, grassland and blue water use from 1995 to 2014. Secondly, the thesis quantifies the potential for Denmark to reduce its global food-related GHG emissions and resource consumption based on scenarios that include household dietary shifts towards plant-based foods and food waste prevention as well as improvements in livestock feed use efficiencies...
Achieving the transition to a sustainable global food and agricultural system will require a shift in the pattern of production and consumption from commodities that generate substantial emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to those that generate fewer such emissions. It is challenging to internalise the social costs of emissions by focusing on production in agriculture primarily due to the difficulty of measuring emissions from individual farms. By using carbon taxes at the consumer level and non‐price inducements to change consumer preferences, such as carbon labelling, significant progress can be made in transforming the food and agricultural system to a low‐emissions system in rich and middle‐income countries. Potential regressive effects of higher food prices can be addressed through income transfers and targeted food assistance programmes. A consumption‐based approach reduces the likelihood of international trade conflicts, since imports and domestic production are treated equally. Measures can be taken to offset any incentive to shift from supplying domestic markets to exporting. To make the transition to a more climate‐friendly food and agricultural system, important supporting measures will also be needed to develop new technologies and practices to reduce emissions per unit of output and to induce beneficial changes in land use.
O sistema alimentar é uma das principais fontes de emissão de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). Como estas emissões variam de produto a produto, alguns autores afirmam que as dietas alimentares precisam mudar para que a produção de alimentos possa crescer com mínimo impacto ambiental. Suprindo a carência de estudos sobre as emissões de
GEE associadas às dietas no Brasil, o objetivo deste trabalho é dimensionar as emissões de GEE associadas às dietas alimentares consumidas nas 26 capitais estaduais do país e no Distrito Federal por parte de indivíduos de diferentes estratos de renda. Assim, foram coletados dados de consumo domiciliar de alimentos e de emissões de GEE associadas
à produção pecuária e agrícola, o que permitiu medir as dietas alimentares em termos das quantidades de GEE que elas emitem. Os resultados mostram que carne bovina e produtos lácteos são as principais fontes de emissões de GEE no Brasil, e que as dietas dos nortistas e dos indivíduos de maior renda emitem muito mais. Como as dietas
alimentares consumidas no país variam muito em termos de emissão de GEE e de valor nutricional, há viabilidade de se adotar dietas que tanto atendam às necessidades nutricionais dos indivíduos quanto reduzam as emissões de GEE.
Facing the conflicts of climate change, energy consumption, carbon emission, and economic development, it is essential to investigate the impacts of the carbon tax policy implemented in specific regions. A CGE-based multi-dimensional carbon policy (CMDCP) model is developed to i) explore the inter-provincial interdependences by interfering with the economic policies of a single province, and ii) quantify interactive relationships among various components including climate, energy, carbon economy and tax. Integrated approach of computable general equilibrium model and input-output analysis is applied to a series of segmented carbon tax schemes for Guangdong IC modeling and China IE modeling. It is found that when the carbon tax rate is 100 yuan/ton, the GDP of Guangdong will fall by less than 0.5% under three scenario types. At the same time, they could bring 1.3, 1.2 and 1.6 million tons of emission reductions. Levying the carbon tax based on the difference in carbon emission volume is most beneficial for emission intensity reduction. For China, the impact of the segmented carbon tax in specific province has a slight impact on the entire supply chain emissions. It is suggested that a carbon tax of 10-40 yuan/ton could be adopted by Guangdong. Moreover, Guangdong could consider implementing the stepped carbon tax for it can effectively avoid the lack of flexibility of traditional carbon tax policy.
The increase in global temperatures requires substantial reductions in the greenhouse emissions from consumer choices. We use an experimental incentive-compatible online supermarket to analyse the effect of a carbon-based choice architecture, which presents commodities to customers in high, medium and low carbon footprint groups, in reducing the carbon footprints of grocery baskets. We relate this choice architecture to two other policy interventions: a bonus-malus carbon tax on all grocery products; and moral goal priming, using an online banner noting the moral importance of reducing one’s carbon footprint. Participants shopped from their home in an online store containing 612 existing food products and 39 existing non-food products for which we had data on carbon footprint, over three successive weeks, with the interventions occurring in the second and third weeks. Choice architecture reduced carbon footprint significantly in the third week by reducing the proportion of choices made in the high-carbon aisle. The carbon tax reduced carbon footprint in both weeks, primarily by reducing overall spend. The goal priming banner led to a small reduction in carbon footprint in the second week only. Thus, the design of the marketplace plays an important role in achieving the policy objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite the interest in increasing the consumption of fruit and vegetables in the UK, the total average consumption is still below the recommended intakes. Evidence indicates that the UK government’s “five-a-day” policy has not been effective in reaching its goal. The results of fiscal policies (e.g., subsidies) to increase fruit and vegetable consumption are uncertain due to complex substitutions done by consumers amongst overall food choice. The goal of the present study was to estimate the prices (i.e., shadow prices) at which consumers can increase their intake of fruits and vegetables by 10% (higher than that achieved by the “five-a-day” policy) without changing the overall taste of the diet (utility). We estimated the ex-ante effect of increasing the UK’s fruit and vegetable consumption by 10% on household nutrient purchases and greenhouse gas emissions. The required changes in prices were estimated by extending the model of consumer behaviour under rationing. The model combines consumption data, demand elasticities estimated from home scan data, and nutrient coefficients for 20 foods consumed in the UK. Our results suggest that to increase vegetable and fruit consumption by 10% (under the current preferences), their prices should decline by 21% and 13%, respectively. However, there is a trade-off between nutrition and environmental goals; total average household caloric purchase declined by 11 kcal, but greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0.7 CO2-eq kg/kg of food.
This PhD dissertation studies the economic opportunities of preventive health care in the context of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The level of preventive health care remains low in European countries, even though this type of care could serve an important role when it comes to the challenges posed by NCDs. Not only does preventive care have the possibility to improve quality of life and prevent premature deaths, it could also reduce health care expenditure and government spending, as well as avert economic losses.
In this dissertation, the connection between preventive health care and four main NCDs – cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and type-2 diabetes – is approached in two parts. In the first part, the focus lies on exploring the economic challenges posed by NCDs and preventive health care. In the second part, the focus turns to economic opportunities in prevention for NCDs: existing and potential prevention efforts are evaluated in their ability to decrease the economic burden of NCDs. We address which tools of preventive care can be effective as well as affordable.
In the first chapter, the financial burden of the four main NCDs in the European Union (EU) is studied based on a systematic review of the literature. We find that at least 25% of the total health care budget is spent on cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and type-2 diabetes; these diseases cause an additional economic loss worth almost 2% of EU GDP. Chapter 2 elaborates on the question why preventive health care does not have a more prominent role in the health care system today, considering its large potential to tackle NCDs. Through a literature review we cover market and behavioural failures that improve our understanding on the state of prevention today. Taking these barriers into account, can yield more effective policy design for preventive interventions. In the third chapter, the focus is steered towards the future by assessing the evolution of NCD prevalence and costs in the EU, until 2040. We develop a dynamic, non-homogeneous Markov model that is able to simulate the disease and financial burden of cancer, cardiovascular disease, type-2 diabetes and their co-morbidities. We find that population aging and multi-morbidity will remain important drivers behind the number of NCDs as well as their cost to the health care system and society.
The second part of this dissertation, covering chapters 4 to 6, starts by evaluating the existing framework of prevention in the context of smoking behaviour. We assess the effectiveness of the anti-smoking policies in European countries in decreasing smoking prevalence among elderly individuals. We confirm the effectiveness of pricing policies, but indicate a need for more policy attention and research for this group of smokers. In Chapter 5, we create a semi-Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of primary health care interventions for prediabetic individuals in Belgium. We address two interventions: an intensive lifestyle intervention and a medical intervention with metformin, both preceded by screening. While both types of interventions are cost-effective for the health care system and even cost-saving for society, lifestyle interventions realize higher gains in quality of life and could therefore be more appropriate. In the sixth and final chapter, we address the fact that health benefits can also occur through NCD prevention outside of the health care sector. An exercise of demand modelling is undertaken in which Belgium implements carbon taxation to achieve environmental benefits. We study the potential health-related co-benefits that this type of policy; these benefits occur through reduced air pollution and a shift towards a more sustainable and balanced dietary pattern. This study indicates that policies or interventions outside of the health care sector may also create health gains by preventing risk factor exposure. These gains should be taken into account by policymakers.
In conclusion, this dissertation indicates the economic challenge as well as opportunities for preventive health care in the context of non-communicable diseases. We established the current and future economic burden of several main NCDs (i.e. cancer, cardiovascular disease, type-2 diabetes and chronic respiratory disease), and the important role of population aging and multi-morbidity. Aside from pointing to the need for prevention, we also clarify the impact of several market and individual barriers in preserving the currently low levels of preventive health care across Europe. The economic opportunity of prevention lies in well-designed policies that address both economic incentives – e.g. pricing policies – as well as influential behavioural factors – e.g. group support and habit formation for behavioural change. For preventive health care to be implemented on a larger scale, it is important that the economic incentive structure in health care and government institutions encourages this. Finally, gains from NCD prevention can also be realized outside of the health care sector, for example in the energy sector. These benefits should be taken into account in policy decisions as well.
Background:
Diets high in red and processed meat (RPM) contribute substantially to environmental degradation, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the global burden of chronic disease. Recent high-profile reports from international expert bodies have called for a significant reduction in global dietary meat intake, particularly RPM, especially in high-income settings, while acknowledging the importance of animal-sourced foods to population nutrition in many lower-income countries. However, this presents a major yet under-investigated political challenge given strong cultural preferences for meat and the economic importance and power of the meat industry.
Methods:
A theoretically-guided narrative review was undertaken. The theoretical framework used to guide the review considered the interests, ideas and institutions that constitute food systems in relation to meat reduction; and the instrumental, discursive and structural forms of power that actors deploy in relation to others within the food system.
Results:
High production and consumption levels of RPM are promoted and sustained by a number of factors. Actors with an interest in RPM included business and industry groups, governments, intergovernmental organisations, and civil society. Asymmetries of power between these actors exist, with institutional barriers recognised in the form of government-industry dependence, trade agreement conflicts, and policy incoherence. Industry lobbying, shaping of evidence and knowledge, and highly concentrated markets are key issues. Furthermore, prevailing ideologies like carnism and neoliberalism present embedded difficulties for RPM reduction. The literature noted the power of actors to resist meat reduction efforts exists in varying forms, including the use of lobbying, shaping of evidence and knowledge, and highly concentrated markets.
Conclusion:
There are a number of political challenges related to RPM reduction that contribute to policy inertia, and hence are likely to impede the transformation of food systems. Research on policy efforts to reduce RPM production and consumption should incorporate the role of power and political feasibility.
This report first presents a systematic overview of the life cycle of meat and dairy products and their
environmental impacts, covering the full food chain. It goes on to provide a comprehensive analysis of the
improvement options that allow reducing the environmental impacts throughout the life cycle. Finally, the
report assesses the different options regarding their feasibility as well as their potential environmental and
socioeconomic benefits and costs.
The report focuses on improvement options in three main areas:
• Household improvements, mainly to reduce food losses (wastage) and to reduce car use for
shopping;
• Agricultural improvements, mainly to reduce water and air emissions (in particular nitrate,
ammonia and methane) and land requirements;
• Power savings in farming, food industry, retail, catering, and for household appliances.
The study presents the consequences that the adoption of these options might have on a broad range
of different environmental issues, including global warming, eutrophication, respiratory health impacts,
etc. It shows that when all environmental improvement potentials are taken together, the aggregated
environmental impacts (external costs) of meat and dairy products may be reduced by about 20 %. The
study has also quantified the economic costs and benefits of implementing the different options.
There are increasing concerns about the ecological footprint of global animal production. Expanding livestock sectors worldwide contribute to expansion of agricultural land and associated deforestation, emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), eutrophication of surface waters and nutrient imbalances. Farm based studies indicate that there are large differences among farms in animal productivity and environmental performance. Here, we report on regional variations in dairy, beef, pork, poultry and egg production, and related GHG emissions in the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU-27), based on 2003–2005 data. Analyses were made with the MITERRA-Europe model which calculates annual nutrient flows and GHG emissions from agriculture in the EU-27. Main input data were derived from CAPRI (i.e., crop areas, livestock distribution, feed inputs), GAINS (i.e., animal numbers, excretion factors, NH3 emission factors), FAO statistics (i.e., crop yields, fertilizer consumption, animal production) and IPCC (i.e., CH4, N2O, CO2 emission factors). Sources of GHG emissions included were enteric fermentation, manure management, direct and indirect N2O soil emissions, cultivation of organic soils, liming, fossil fuel use and fertilizer production. The dairy sector had the highest GHG emission in the EU-27, with annual emission of 195TgCO2-eq, followed by the beef sector with 192TgCO2-eq. Enteric fermentation was the main source of GHG emissions in the European livestock sector (36%) followed by N2O soil emissions (28%). On a per kg product basis, beef had by far the highest GHG emission with 22.6kgCO2-eq/kg, milk had an emission of 1.3kgCO2-eq/kg, pork 3.5kgCO2-eq/kg, poultry 1.6kgCO2-eq/kg, and eggs 1.7kgCO2-eq/kg. However large variations in GHG emissions per unit product exist among EU countries, which are due to differences in animal production systems, feed types and nutrient use efficiencies. There are, however, substantial uncertainties in the base data and applied methodology such as assumptions surrounding allocation of feeds to livestock species. Our results provide insight into differences in GHG sources and emissions among animal production sectors for the various regions of Europe.This article is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture – Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions, Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister, Section Guest Editors; K.A. Beauchemin, X. Hao, S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology, P.H. Robinson.
Agriculture is responsible for 25–30% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but has thus far been largely
exempted from climate policies. Because of high monitoring costs and comparatively low technical potential for emission reductions
in the agricultural sector, output taxes on emission-intensive agricultural goods may be an efficient policy instrument to
deal with agricultural GHG emissions. In this study we assess the emission mitigation potential of GHG weighted consumption
taxes on animal food products in the EU. We also estimate the decrease in agricultural land area through the related changes
in food production and the additional mitigation potential in devoting this land to bioenergy production. Estimates are based
on a model of food consumption and the related land use and GHG emissions in the EU. Results indicate that agricultural emissions
in the EU27 can be reduced by approximately 32 million tons of CO2-eq with a GHG weighted tax on animal food products corresponding to €60 per ton CO2-eq. The effect of the tax is estimated to be six times higher if lignocellulosic crops are grown on the land made available
and used to substitute for coal in power generation. Most of the effect of a GHG weighted tax on animal food can be captured
by taxing the consumption of ruminant meat alone.
The aim of this paper is to examine the environmental consequences of beef meat production in the EU, using a life cycle approach. Four beef production systems were studied – three from intensively reared dairy calves and one from suckler herds. According to the results of the analysis, the contributions from the production of 1 kg beef meat (slaughter weight) to global warming, acidification, eutrophication, land use and non-renewable energy use were lower for beef from dairy calves than from suckler herds (16.0–19.9 versus 27.3 kg CO2e, 101–173 versus 210 g SO2e, 622–1140 versus 1651 g NO3e, 16.5–22.7 versus 42.9 m2year, and 41.3–48.2 versus 59.2 MJ, respectively). The breakdown analysis helped identify the key areas in the “cradle to farm gate” beef production system where sustainable management strategies are needed to improve environmental performance. The study also included a sensitivity analysis to preliminarily estimate GHG emissions from beef production systems if land opportunity cost and land use change related to grazing and feed crop production for beef were taken into account. If so, the contribution from the production of 1 kg beef to global warming would increase by a factor of 3.1–3.9, based on a depreciation period of 20 years. This highlights the importance of taking into account the impacts of land use in assessing the environmental impacts of livestock production.
Food provides energy and nutrients, but its acquisition requires energy expenditure. In post-hunter-gatherer societies, extra-somatic energy has greatly expanded and intensified the catching, gathering, and production of food. Modern relations between energy, food, and health are very complex, raising serious, high-level policy challenges. Together with persistent widespread under-nutrition, over-nutrition (and sedentarism) is causing obesity and associated serious health consequences. Worldwide, agricultural activity, especially livestock production, accounts for about a fifth of total greenhouse-gas emissions, thus contributing to climate change and its adverse health consequences, including the threat to food yields in many regions. Particular policy attention should be paid to the health risks posed by the rapid worldwide growth in meat consumption, both by exacerbating climate change and by directly contributing to certain diseases. To prevent increased greenhouse-gas emissions from this production sector, both the average worldwide consumption level of animal products and the intensity of emissions from livestock production must be reduced. An international contraction and convergence strategy offers a feasible route to such a goal. The current global average meat consumption is 100 g per person per day, with about a ten-fold variation between high-consuming and low-consuming populations. 90 g per day is proposed as a working global target, shared more evenly, with not more than 50 g per day coming from red meat from ruminants (ie, cattle, sheep, goats, and other digastric grazers).
The authors model (myopic) habit formation, interdependence of preferences among consumers, and demographic effects as taste shifters in a micro consumer demand model of the almost ideal demand variety. The model is estimated for Dutch micro data. The authors investigate the dynamic properties of the model and find that it behaves very differently from models without interdependence of preferences. The implications for micro-macro modeling are discussed. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.
This paper summarises the recently introduced fat tax in Denmark, which came into force on 1 October 2012, and discusses some of the consequences of introducing the tax. Furthermore, this paper discusses the theoretical background and reasoning for imposing a fat tax as well as some of the problems and concerns stated, especially by the food industry. The fat tax is a tax paid per kilogram of saturated fat in the following foods if the content of saturated fat exceeds 2.3 g/100 g. These include meat, dairy products and animal fats that are rendered or are extracted in other ways, edible oils and fats, margarine and spreadable blended spreads. The declared aim of the tax is to reduce the consumption of saturated fat among the Danish population in order to decrease the prevalence of diet-related illnesses. The tax is part of a larger reform of the Danish tax system with the general aim of decreasing the income taxation pressure and financing it by, among other things, increased environmental and energy taxes, as well as increased ‘health’ taxes. Pre-tax simulations predict that the health tax on saturated fat will give rise to a reduction in the consumption of saturated fat of approximately 8%.
To achieve a sustainable cheese production chain, not only its ecological impact must be minimized, but economic value must be added along the chain also. The objectives of this study were to gain insight into ecological hotspots of the cheese chain, and to judge the ecological impact of chain stages in the context of their economic value added. A life cycle assessment (LCA) was performed to determine hotspots for global warming potential (GWP), land use and fossil energy use during production of Dutch, semi-hard cheese. To place ecological impact in an economic perspective, eco-efficiency of chain stages was determined, which was defined as the ratio of gross value added, and ecological impact. LCA and economic computations were based on empirical data from a specific Dutch cheese chain.
To comply with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reporting requirements, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed guidelines for calculating national GHG inventories in a consistent and standard framework. Although appropriate for national level accounting purposes, IPCC methodologies lack the farm level resolution and holistic approach required for whole farm systems analysis. Thus, whole farm systems modelling is widely used for farm level analysis. A review of 31 published whole farm modelling studies of GHG emissions from beef and dairy cattle production systems indicated a number of important outcomes. For example, improvements in animal productivity (i.e., liveweight gain milk production) and fertility (i.e., lower culling, lower replacement rates) can reduce GHG emissions/kg product. Additionally, intensification of production as output/ha can reduce emissions/kg product provided input requirements of feed and/or fertilizer are not excessive. Carbon sequestration into agricultural soils has the potential to offset emissions from pastoral based production systems. A product based metric is widely used and allows a wide range of objectives, including farm profitability and food security to be met. Variation in farm system parameters, and the inherent uncertainties associated with emission factors, can have substantial implications for reported agricultural emissions and thus, uncertainty or sensitivity analysis in any modelling approach is needed. Although there is considerable variation among studies in relation to quality of farm data, boundaries assumed, emission factors applied and co-product allocation approach, we suggest that whole farm systems models are an appropriate tool to develop and measure GHG mitigation strategies for livestock farms.
The aim was to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) associated with self-selected diets and to evaluate the impact of modifying dietary structures on diet-associated GHGE. Food consumption data from 1918 adults participating in the French national dietary survey and GHGE of 73 highly consumed foods (in g CO2e/100g of edible food) were used to estimate the GHGE of each individual diet. The mean diet-associated GHGE was 4170g CO2e/day and a high inter-individual variability was observed. When the total caloric intakes were reduced to meet the individual energy needs, the diet-associated GHGE decreased by either 10.7% or 2.4%, depending on the assumption made on the average physical activity level of the population. The meat and deli meat food group represented the strongest diet-associated GHGE contributor, but the impact of different meat reduction scenarios was modest. In particular, when fruit and vegetables were iso-calorically substituted for meat, either null or even positive diet-associated GHGE variations were observed because the needed amounts of fruit and vegetables to maintain the caloric content of the diet were high. Therefore, substituting fruit and vegetables for meat (especially deli meat) may be desirable for health but is not necessarily the best approach to decreasing diet-associated GHGE.
Rates of land-use change, including clearing for agriculture and harvest of wood, were reconstructed from statistical and historic documents for 9 world regions and used, along with the per ha changes in vegetation and soil that result from land management, to calculate the annual flux of carbon between land and atmosphere. Between 1850 and 1990, changes in land use are calculated to have added 124 PgC to the atmosphere, about half as much as released from combustion of fossil fuels over this period. About 108 PgC are estimated to have been transferred from forests to the atmosphere as a result of human activity, 2/3 from tropical forests and 1/3 from temperate zone and boreal forests. Another 16 PgC were lost from non-forests, largely as a result of cultivation of mid-latitude grassland soils. About 800 × 106 ha of forest were cleared for agricultural purposes, and approximately 2000 × 106 ha were harvested. Conversion of forests to agricultural lands released 105 PgC; harvest of wood released about 20 PgC. These estimates of release include the accumulations of carbon in wood products (17 PgC) and woody debris (4 PgC), the losses of carbon from oxidation of wood products, woody debris, and soil organic matter (373 PgC in total), and the accumulations of carbon in forests recovering from harvest and in the fallows of shifting cultivation (249 PgC). Over the decade of the 1980s the annual net flux of carbon from changes in land use averaged about 2.0 PgC yr−1, higher than the 1.6 PgC yr−1 estimated previously. Almost all of this flux was from tropical regions, where rates of deforestation averaged approximately 15 × 106 ha yr−1. Outside the tropics, regrowth of forests logged in earlier years largely balanced the losses of carbon from oxidation of wood products.
Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little
attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land
use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat
consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization
levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch
to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700Mha of pasture and 100Mha of cropland could
be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission
would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the
mitigation costs to achieve a 450ppm CO2-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create
substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation
policies.
This paper analyses the quantitative effects of using economic instruments in health policy on the basis of price elasticities calculated from estimated demand systems. The nutritional effects of various taxation schemes are compared for households in different age groups and social classes. Focusing on the consumption of saturated fats, fibre and sugar; it is generally found that the impact of price instruments is stronger for lower social classes than in other groups of the population. With regard to age groups, it is mostly the youngest that decrease their demand for saturated fat in response to price changes, while it is mostly the middle-aged who exhibit price responsiveness in their demand for sugar. These groups are however not considered as key target groups for dietary regulation; thus tax instruments may be effective in improving diets on average, but the design of the instruments and the targeting of vulnerable groups with special needs should be done with care. It should be noted that a tax on a single nutrient or food may have undesired effects on the demand for other food components, though this may be avoided by introducing taxes/subsidies on several food products simultaneously.
We consider a regulator's choice between environmentally motivated emissions taxes and output taxes. We investigate how the optimal instrument depends on the monitoring cost function, the firm's technology, and on social preferences regarding output and environmental quality. Pure emissions taxes are usually not optimal with monitoring costs. Pure output taxes are optimal under sufficiently high monitoring costs, sufficiently limited options for emission reduction by means other than output reduction, and sufficiently high substitutability of the output. Finally, conditions for the optimality of mixed taxes are given.
One hundred and three estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions were gathered from 28 published studies and combined to form a probability density function. The uncertainty is strongly right-skewed. If all studies are combined, the mode is $2/tC, the median $14/tC, the mean $93/tC, and the 95 percentile $350/tC. Studies with a lower discount rate have higher estimates and much greater uncertainties. Similarly, studies that use equity weighing, have higher estimates and larger uncertainties. Interestingly, studies that are peer-reviewed have lower estimates and smaller uncertainties. Using standard assumptions about discounting and aggregation, the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions are unlikely to exceed $50/tC, and probably much smaller.
An environmental life cycle assessment was performed to investigate the environmental consequences of the life cycle of Hushållsost, a semi-hard cheese. The assessment identified those activities that contribute most to the cheese's environmental impact throughout its life cycle from extraction of ingredients to waste management. Milk production at the farm was identified as having the greatest environmental impact, followed by cheesemaking at the dairy, retailing, and the production of plastic wrapping. The environmental impact could be reduced by minimising wastage of milk and cheese throughout the life cycle, without any effect on the quality of the product. Increasing the yield of cheese would also bring about substantial improvements as less milk would have to be produced on farms.
Sustainable Protein Production and Consumption: Pigs or Peas? is a book that presents and explores the PROFETAS programme for development of a more sustainable food system by studying the feasibility of substituting meat with plant based alternatives. The emphasis is on improving the food system by reducing the use of energy, land, and freshwater, at the same time limiting the impacts on health and animal welfare associated with intensive livestock production. It is clear that such a new perspective calls not only for advanced environmental and technological research, but also for in-depth societal research, as the acceptance of new food systems is critically contingent on perceptions and attitudes of modern consumers. In this unique multidisciplinary setting, PROFETAS has opened up pathways for a major transition in protein food production and consumption, not by just analyzing the food chain, but rather by exploring the entire agricultural system, including biomass for energy production and the use of increasingly scarce freshwater resources. The study presented here is intended to benefit every stakeholder in the food chain from policymakers to consumers, and it offers guiding principles for a transition towards an ecologically and socially sustainable food system from a multi-level perspective.
High intakes of red or processed meat may increase the risk of mortality. Our objective was to determine the relations of red, white, and processed meat intakes to risk for total and cause-specific mortality.
The study population included the National Institutes of Health-AARP (formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons) Diet and Health Study cohort of half a million people aged 50 to 71 years at baseline. Meat intake was estimated from a food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) within quintiles of meat intake. The covariates included in the models were age, education, marital status, family history of cancer (yes/no) (cancer mortality only), race, body mass index, 31-level smoking history, physical activity, energy intake, alcohol intake, vitamin supplement use, fruit consumption, vegetable consumption, and menopausal hormone therapy among women. Main outcome measures included total mortality and deaths due to cancer, cardiovascular disease, injuries and sudden deaths, and all other causes.
There were 47 976 male deaths and 23 276 female deaths during 10 years of follow-up. Men and women in the highest vs lowest quintile of red (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.27-1.35], and HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.30-1.43], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.12-1.20], and HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.20-1.31], respectively) intakes had elevated risks for overall mortality. Regarding cause-specific mortality, men and women had elevated risks for cancer mortality for red (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.16-1.29], and HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.12-1.30], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.19], and HR, 1.11 [95% CI 1.04-1.19], respectively) intakes. Furthermore, cardiovascular disease risk was elevated for men and women in the highest quintile of red (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.20-1.35], and HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.37-1.65], respectively) and processed meat (HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03-1.15], and HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.26-1.51], respectively) intakes. When comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of white meat intake, there was an inverse association for total mortality and cancer mortality, as well as all other deaths for both men and women.
Red and processed meat intakes were associated with modest increases in total mortality, cancer mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality.
Although health has improved for many people, the extent of health inequities between and within countries is growing. Meanwhile, humankind is disrupting the global climate and other life-supporting environmental systems, thereby creating serious risks for health and wellbeing, especially in vulnerable populations but ultimately for everybody. Underlying determinants of health inequity and environmental change overlap substantially; they are signs of an economic system predicated on asymmetric growth and competition, shaped by market forces that mostly disregard health and environmental consequences rather than by values of fairness and support. A shift is needed in priorities in economic development towards healthy forms of urbanisation, more efficient and renewable energy sources, and a sustainable and fairer food system. Global interconnectedness and interdependence enable the social and environmental determinants of health to be addressed in ways that will increase health equity, reduce poverty, and build societies that live within environmental limits.
The general health message to the public about meat consumption is both confusing and misleading. It is stated that meat is not good for health because meat is rich in fat and cholesterol and high intakes are associated with increased blood cholesterol levels and coronary heart disease (CHD). This paper reviewed 54 studies from the literature in relation to red meat consumption and CHD risk factors. Substantial evidence from recent studies shows that lean red meat trimmed of visible fat does not raise total blood cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol levels. Dietary intake of total and saturated fat mainly comes from fast foods, snack foods, oils, spreads, other processed foods and the visible fat of meat, rather than lean meat. In fact, lean red meat is low in saturated fat, and if consumed in a diet low in SFA is associated with reductions in LDL-cholesterol in both healthy and hypercholesterolemia subjects. Lean red meat consumption has no effect on in vivo and ex vivo production of thromboxane and prostacyclin or the activity of haemostatic factors. Lean red meat is also a good source of protein, omega-3 fatty acids, vitamin B12, niacin, zinc and iron. In conclusion, lean red meat, trimmed of visible fat, which is consumed in a diet low in saturated fat does not increase cardiovascular risk factors (plasma cholesterol levels or thrombotic risk factors).
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Diet may influence stroke risk via several mechanisms, but the optimal dietary habits for stroke prevention are not well established. We reviewed English-language MEDLINE publications from January 1979 through November 2004 for experimental, observational, and clinical studies of dietary factors (minerals, fats, cholesterol, fish, animal protein, fiber, whole grains, carbohydrate quality, fruits and vegetables, antioxidants, B vitamins, dietary patterns) and risk of stroke or hypertension, the principal modifiable stroke risk factor. A total of 121 publications were selected based on relevance and quality of design and methods. Diets low in sodium and high in potassium lower blood pressure which will likely reduce stroke risk. Consumption of fruits and vegetables, whole grains, folate, and fatty fish are each likely to reduce stroke risk. A prudent or traditional Mediterranean dietary pattern, which incorporates these individual dietary components as well as intake of legumes and olive oil, may also prevent stroke. Evidence is limited or inconsistent regarding optimal levels of dietary magnesium, calcium, antioxidants, total fat, other fat subtypes, cholesterol, carbohydrate quality, or animal protein for stroke prevention. A diet low in sodium, high in potassium, and rich in fruits, vegetables, whole grains, cereal fiber, and fatty fish will likely reduce the incidence of stroke. Further research is needed regarding the possible effects of other major dietary factors on stroke risk.
An exact welfare change indicator is defined to be a known function of the price and quantity data for two periods (for a utility maximizing consumer) which is exactly equal to the Hicksian equivalent variation. A welfare change indicator is termed superlative if it is exactly equal to the equivalent variation for an expenditure function which has a second-order approximation property.
The paper exhibits a number of superlative welfare change indicators, and also reviews the earlier attempts of Hicks and Weitzman to obtain equivalent variation measures that had a second-order approximation property.
The Stone index typically used in estimating linear almost ideal demand systems is not invariant to changes in units of measurement, which may seriously affect the approximation properties of the model. A modification to the Stone index, or use of a regular price index instead, are both desirable practices in estimating linear AI models.
Ever since Richard Stone (1954) first estimated a system of demand equations derived explicitly from consumer theory, there has been a continuing search for alternative specifications and functional forms. Many models have been proposed, but perhaps the most important in current use, apart from the original linear expendi- ture system, are the Rotterdam model (see Henri Theil, 1965, 1976; Anton Barten) and the translog model (see Laurits Christensen, Dale Jorgenson, and Lawrence Lau; Jorgen- son and Lau). Both of these models have been extensively estimated and have, in addition, been used to test the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions of demand the- ory. In this paper, we propose and estimate a new model which is of comparable gener- ality to the Rotterdam and translog models but which has considerable advantages over both. Our model, which we call the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), gives an ar- bitrary first-order approximation to any de- mand system; it satisfies the axioms of choice exactly; it aggregates perfectly over consumers without invoking parallel linear Engel curves; it has a functional form which is consistent with known household-budget data; it is simple to estimate, largely avoid- ing the need for non-linear estimation; and it can be used to test the restrictions of homogeneity and symmetry through linear restrictions on fixed parameters. Although many of these desirable properties are possessed by one or other of the Rotterdam or translog models, neither possesses all of them simultaneously. In Section I of the paper, we discuss the theoretical specification of the AIDS and justify the claims in the previous paragraph. In Section II, the model is estimated on postwar British data and we use our results to test the homogeneity and symmetry re- strictions. Our results are consistent with earlier findings in that both sets of restric- tions are decisively rejected. We also find that imposition of homogeneity generates positive serial correlation in the errors of those equations which reject the restrictions most strongly; this suggests that the now standard rejection of homogeneity in de- mand analysis may be due to insufficient attention to the dynamic aspects of con- sumer behavior. Finally, in Section III, we offer a summary and conclusions. We be- lieve that the results of this paper suggest that the AIDS is to be recommended as a vehicle for testing, extending, and improving conventional demand analysis. This does not imply that the system, particularly in its simple static form, is to be regarded as a fully satisfactory explanation of consumers' behavior. Indeed, by proposing a demand system which is superior to its predecessors, we hope to be able to reveal more clearly the problems and potential solutions asso- ciated with the usual approach. I. Specification of the AIDS
Change in consumption of foods due to scenario 1A and 2B (% change from initial consumption)
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Fig. F1. Change in consumption of foods due to scenario 1A and 2B (% change from initial consumption).
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