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We synthesized and meta-analyzed 73 studies (N = 71,895) examining the associations between Big-Five personality and single-item self-placement measures of political orientation. Openness to Experience (r = −.18) and Conscientiousness (r = .10) were significantly but weakly correlated with political conservatism. The weak Openness-political orientation link was moderated by systemic threat and uncertainty (indexed by nation-wide homicide and unemployment). We propose a Threat-Constraint Model explaining this previously undetected Person × Situation interaction. The model shows that there was a moderately-sized negative correlation between Openness and political conservatism when systemic threat was low (r = −.422) but that this association was negligible at only moderate levels of threat (r = −.066). These findings highlight the economic and societal constraints of personality-political ideology associations.
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Personality and political orientation: Meta-analysis and test
of a Threat-Constraint Model
Chris G. Sibley
, Danny Osborne, John Duckitt
University of Auckland, New Zealand
article info
Article history:
Available online 13 August 2012
Keywords:
Meta-analysis
Political orientation
Systemic threat
Unemployment
Cross-cultural
abstract
We synthesized and meta-analyzed 73 studies (N= 71,895) examining the associations between Big-Five
personality and single-item self-placement measures of political orientation. Openness to Experience
(r=.18) and Conscientiousness (r= .10) were significantly but weakly correlated with political conser-
vatism. The weak Openness-political orientation link was moderated by systemic threat and uncertainty
(indexed by nation-wide homicide and unemployment). We propose a Threat-Constraint Model explain-
ing this previously undetected Person Situation interaction. The model shows that there was a moder-
ately-sized negative correlation between Openness and political conservatism when systemic threat was
low (r=.422) but that this association was negligible at only moderate levels of threat (r=.066). These
findings highlight the economic and societal constraints of personality-political ideology associations.
Ó2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
‘‘[T]he various qualities of men are clearly the reason why there
are various kinds of states and many forms of government;
for different men... make for themselves different... forms of
government.’’ – Aristotle (350 B.C./1988, p. 167, emphasis
added)
1. Introduction
The idea that personality is associated with political worldviews
has a long tradition in Western thought. Indeed, Aristotle (350 B.C./
1988) argued that individual differences drive people to establish
different governments. Though the extent to which scholars
endorse this view has varied over the centuries, it was not until
the mid-to-late-1930s that the personality correlates of political
ideology became fertile ground for empirical study (Adorno,
Frenkel-Brunswik, Levinson, & Sanford, 1950/1964; Fromm,
1941; Maslow, 1943; Reich, 1933/1970).
The first decade of the 21st century witnessed an explosion
of interest in the relationship between personality and political
orientation. This renewed attention was stimulated—at least in
part—by Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski, and Sulloway’s (2003) meta-
analysis on the personality correlates of political conservatism.
Jost et al. (2003) argued that political conservatism consists of
the following two related—though conceptually-distinct—factors:
(a) opposition to change and (b) acceptance of inequality. In
their own words, Jost et al. (2003, p. 369) defined political conser-
vatism as:
‘‘an ideological belief system that is significantly (but not com-
pletely) related to motivational concerns having to do with the
psychological management of uncertainty and fear. Specifically,
the avoidance of uncertainty (and the striving for certainty)
may be particularly tied to one core dimension of conservative
thought, resistance to change (Wilson, 1973). Similarly,
concerns with fear and threat may be linked to the second core
dimension of conservatism, endorsement of inequality
(Sidanius & Pratto, 1999).’’
Jost and colleagues (2003) thus argued that political conserva-
tism reflects a belief system that reduces uncertainty, opposes
change, and legitimizes the status quo. They further posited that
political ideology is a form of motivated social cognition, and that
people express the liberal versus conservative attitudes which
meet their epistemic, existential, and ideological needs. Individual
differences in these needs (i.e., personality differences) should
therefore affect the extent to which conservative beliefs resonate
with people.
Consistent with this position, Jost et al. (2003) provided evi-
dence showing that political conservatism was associated with a
host of social-cognitive motives. Averaging across 88 samples,
multiple personality-based epistemic motives including Dogma-
tism, Need for Cognitive Closure, and Openness to Experience were
consistently associated with political orientation. Similarly, exis-
tentially-based needs such as threat sensitivity, fear of death, and
the presence of a social crisis were positively correlated with
0092-6566/$ - see front matter Ó2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2012.08.002
Corresponding author. Address: Department of Psychology, University of
Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
E-mail address: c.sibley@auckland.ac.nz (C.G. Sibley).
Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Journal of Research in Personality
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jrp
political conservatism. Finally, various ideological motives (e.g., So-
cial Dominance Orientation and Right-Wing Authoritarianism)
were also associated with political orientation.
2. Big-Five personality
Jost et al. (2003) provide a much needed framework for
understanding the relationship between personality and political
orientation. It is important to keep in mind, however, that their
meta-analysis examined personality measures of varying band-
widths. That is, some of their measures assessed particularly
narrow facets of personality (e.g., Dogmatism), whereas others
captured relatively broad dimensions that subsume these nar-
rower traits (e.g., Openness to Experience). This leaves one
wondering whether the core dimensions of personality are reliably
associated with political orientation, and just how substantive
such effects might be.
Research on the Big-Five provides an important starting point
for addressing this question. Big-Five theorists (e.g., Costa &
McCrae, 1988; DeYoung, Quilty, & Peterson, 2007; Digman, 1990;
Goldberg, 1990; McCrae & Costa, 1997; McCrae & John, 1992)
argue that traits are organized into the following five core dimen-
sions (each of which contain two specific facets): Extraversion
(enthusiasm and assertiveness), Agreeableness (politeness and
compassion), Conscientiousness (industriousness and orderliness),
Neuroticism (volatility and withdrawal) and Openness to Experi-
ence (intellect and openness).
Studies consistently support the five factor model of personal-
ity. The Big-Five emerges across a variety of methodologies includ-
ing (a) psycho-lexical analyses of trait descriptors (Digman, 1990;
Goldberg, 1990), (b) self-report surveys (McCrae & Costa, 1997),
and (c) peer-ratings (McCrae & Costa, 1987). Likewise, the Big-Five
is robust to different factor extraction methods (Goldberg, 1990)
and shows remarkable within-person stability over time (Costa &
McCrae, 1991; Soldz & Vaillant, 1999). Moreover, five personality
factors appear across many cultures, suggesting that the Big-Five
is (relatively) universal (McCrae & Costa, 1997; McCrae et al.,
2000). Research even shows that each Big-Five factor is partly
heritable (Jang, Livesley, Angleitner, Reimann, & Vernon, 2002;
Jang, Livesley, & Vemon, 1996).
Two of the Big-Five factors have been repeatedly linked with
values associated with political attitudes. First, people’s interest
in—and appreciation of—novelty (i.e., Openness to Experience)
seems to relate to their support for cultural diversity. Likewise, a
strong preference for organization (i.e., Conscientiousness) seems
to cross-over into people’s attitudes toward maintaining the status
quo. Consistent with this view, Roccas, Sagiv, Schwartz, and Knafo
(2002) examined the correlations between each of the Big-Five
personality dimensions and 10 core values identified by Schwartz
(1992). Of particular interest for our purposes, the authors found
that Conscientiousness was positively correlated with valuing con-
formity and security. In contrast, Openness to Experience was neg-
atively correlated with valuing traditionalism, but positively
correlated with universalism. Notably, these values correspond to
the two central components of conservatism (opposition to change
and acceptance of inequality) identified by Jost et al. (2003). In-
deed, Roccas and colleagues noted that Openness to Experience
‘‘...is antithetical to values that emphasize maintaining the status
quo’’ (p. 796).
Other work demonstrates that only two dimensions of the Big-
Five—namely, Conscientiousness and Openness to Experience—are
consistently correlated with political orientation. In six separate
samples, Carney, Jost, Gosling, and Potter (2008a, 2008b) showed
that both (a) low Openness to Experience and (b) high Conscien-
tiousness were associated with participants’ self-reported political
conservatism. Even more striking, behavioral indices of Openness
to Experience and Conscientiousness—as measured by third-party
ratings of participants’ (a) interpersonal behavior (Study 2) and
(b) living spaces (Study 3)—predicted participants’ level of conser-
vatism. Studies outside of North America also show that Openness
to Experience is negatively correlated (Van Hiel, Kossowska, &
Mervielde, 2000; van Hiel & Mervielde, 2004), whereas Conscien-
tiousness is positively correlated (Hirsh, DeYoung, Xu, & Peterson,
2010), with political conservatism.
Conscientiousness and Openness to Experience have been shown
to correlate with political orientation at the macro level of analysis.
Across three separate presidential elections, Rentfrow, Jost, Gosling,
and Potter (2009) demonstrated that State-wide averages of Consci-
entiousness were negatively correlated with the percentage of votes
captured by Democratic presidential candidates. State-wide levels
of Openness to Experience, in contrast, were positively correlated
with the percentage of votes gained by Democratic presidential
candidates over the same period. Conscientiousness and Openness
to Experience are robust predictors of political worldviews.
3. Malleability of the personality–conservatism link: a Threat-
Constraint Model (TCM)
Though it is clear that some broad bandwidth measures of
personality consistently predict political orientation, there is reason
to believe that this relationship will be moderated by the situation.
Nail and McGregor (2009) showed that both conservatives and liber-
als became more conservative in the wake of the September 11th
terrorist attacks on the United States (also see Bonanno & Jost,
2006). Other research shows similar conservative shifts following
increases in economic threat (Sales, 1973;Thórisdóttir & Jost,
2011), and social threat (McCann, 1997). These findings corroborate
Jost et al.’s (2003) thesis that political conservatism is a motived
form of social cognition that helps people cope with uncertainty.
The malleability of political conservatism has important impli-
cations for our understanding of the relationship between person-
ality and political orientation. Personality variables—particularly
those of the broad bandwidth nature—are chiefly conceptualized
as trans-situational predictors of behavior (Ozer & Benet-Martinez,
2006). Because situational threats affect the extent to which people
endorse politically conservative worldviews, these threats will
likely attenuate—or constrain—the relationship between personal-
ity and political orientation. We refer to this hypothesis as the
Threat-Constraint Model (TCM) of political conservatism.
We posit that the relationship between Openness to Experience
and political orientation will be attenuated by situational threat.
Duckitt and Sibley (2009, 2010) argued that a low level of Open-
ness to Experience causes people to view the social world as dan-
gerous and threatening. Thus, because threats in the environment
directly challenge the safe world view of those high in Openness,
situational threats should attenuate the relationship between
Openness to Experience and political conservatism. That is, situa-
tional threats directly challenge the beliefs of those who are high
on Openness to Experience, whereas they merely confirm the
worldviews of people who are low on Openness to Experience. This
should result in larger conservative shifts among liberals (relative
to conservatives) under threatening situations, thereby attenuating
the relationship between Openness to Experience and political
conservatism.
4. Overview of the current study
A considerable amount of research has examined the relation-
ship between personality and political orientation since the publi-
cation of Jost et al.’s (2003) influential meta-analysis. An initial goal
C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677 665
of this study is to provide an updated summary of this literature.
As we already noted, however, Jost and colleagues (2003) work
examined facets of personality that varied considerably in their
bandwidth (e.g., cognitive flexibility, intolerance of ambiguity,
etc.). Most of these personality facets are subsumed under the
higher-order (i.e., broad bandwidth) personality constructs cap-
tured by the Big-Five. The growing number of studies examining
the relationships between each of the Big-Five factors and political
orientation impels such a review.
Another goal of this study is to evaluate the viability of our TCM.
Because people who are low in Openness to Experience tend to
perceive the world as relatively dangerous and threatening (see
Duckitt & Sibley, 2009, 2010), events that confirm this worldview
may do little to change their beliefs. People who are high in Open-
ness to Experience, in contrast, believe the world is relatively safe.
Events that challenge this worldview should therefore have a
marked impact on their worldviews. Specifically, systemic threat
should constrain the extent to which those who are high in Open-
ness to Experience feel free to explore their social world and
support political parties and systems aligned with their default
or unconstrained behavioral tendencies (a preference for novelty
and willingness to consider change). This should attenuate the
relationship between Openness to Experience and political orienta-
tion under conditions of prolonged exposure to systemic threat.
5. Method
5.1. Literature search
We used multiple search engines (i.e., PsycINFO, PsychLit, Pro-
Quest, SCOPUS, and Google Scholar) to conduct an exhaustive liter-
ature search for studies that included measures of the Big-Five and
political orientation. Our search included combinations of the fol-
lowing terms: personality, Big-Five, extraversion, agreeableness, con-
scientious, neuroticism, openness, five factor model, politics, political,
ideology, liberal, conservative, vote, and voting. To address the ‘‘file
drawer’’ problem (see Rosenthal, 1979), we also posted a request
for unpublished data on the Society for Personality and Social
Psychology (SPSP) listserv. Scholars who were working on related
research were also contacted and asked for relevant unpublished
data. To be included in our analysis, a study had to (a) assess one
or more of the Big-Five personality dimensions and (b) include a
single-item measure of political orientation as liberal versus con-
servative on a continuous self-placement scale. Data collection
for our meta-analysis was finalized in October 2009.
5.2. Study characteristics
A total of 73 studies (N= 71,895) were identified that met our
inclusion criteria. Study characteristics and effect sizes are reported
in Table 1. Of these studies, 36 (49%) were published, in press, or
accepted for publication. All other studies (including those that were
under review) were coded as unpublished (k= 37). Only 6 (8%) of
the 73 studies were included in Sibley and Duckitt’s (2008) meta-
analysis of the relationship between personality and prejudice,
whereas none were included in Jost et al.’s (2003) study. Twenty-
four studies (33%) included adult or community samples, 4 (6%) were
internet samples, 2 (2%) included a mix of adults and undergradu-
ates, and 4 (6%) included a mix of undergraduates and adolescents.
The remaining 39 studies (53%) included only undergraduates.
Studies were conducted in 10 different nations (details are pre-
sented in Table 2). Thirty-nine studies (53%) were conducted in
North America (i.e., the US or Canada), 19 (26%) in nations belong-
ing to the European Union (i.e., Belgium, Germany, Italy, Poland,
Sweden), and 11 (15%) in New Zealand. Of the remaining four
studies, one was conducted in Turkey and the other in Israel.
Two studies were internet-based and, to the best of our knowledge,
included participants from multiple nations.
As for personality measurement, 24 studies (33%) used the Big-
Five Inventory (BFI; John & Srivastava, 1999), 13 (18%) used the
NEO-FFI, 9 (12%) used the Ten-Item Personality Inventory (TIPI;
Gosling, Rentfrow, & Swann, 2003), two used the NEO-PI-R (Costa
& McCrae, 1992), two used the Big-Five Mini-Markers (Saucier,
1994), and one used the revised Big-Five Questionnaire (BFQ-2;
Caprara, Barbaranelli, Borgogni, & Vecchione, 2007). An additional
seven studies (10%) used a general personality measure from the
International Personality Item Pool (IPIP; Goldberg, 1999) and
two others used the IPIP’s derivative, the Big-Five Aspects Scale
(BFAS; DeYoung et al., 2007).
1
Trait adjective ratings were also used
in six studies (8%), whereas the HEXACO-PI-R (Ashton & Lee, 2009)
was used in two studies (3%).
2
Five studies (7%) used other short-
ened, adapted, or unspecified measures of the Big-Five.
5.3. Measures of systemic threat
National-level indicators of systemic threat were identified by
referencing the United Nations’ Human Development Report
(2007/2008). We matched each nation in which a study was con-
ducted with its corresponding average annual (a) number of inten-
tional homicides (per 100,000 people) from 2000 to 2004 and (b)
unemployment rate (% of labor force) from 1996 to 2006. We view
these as indicators of systemic danger and instability, respectively.
Together, they capture nation-wide levels of systemic threat.
To control for baseline differences in nation-wide development,
the United Nations’ Human Development Report (2007/2008) was
used to identify each nation’s Human Development Index (HDI)
rating from 2005. The HDI is a measure of the average level of
well-being within a nation and is standardized to facilitate cross-
nation comparisons. The formula used to calculate the HDI is based
on a weighted average of (a) the average life expectancy of a
nation’s citizens, (b) adult literacy rate, and (c) log gross domestic
product (GDP). Scores range from 0 (low) to 1 (high). High scores
on the HDI indicate higher average levels of well-being within a
nation (see Table 2).
6. Results
6.1. Data analytic approach
We followed the meta-analytic procedures outlined by Hedges
and Olkin (1985). Bivariate correlations between measures of
personality and political orientation were transformed to z-score
effect sizes, weighted by their inverse variance, and then averaged
before being converted back to r-equivalent effect sizes. We
adopted a random-effects model to estimate weighted average
effect sizes and then used a mixed-effects model to examine mod-
erating (i.e., cross-study) factors (see below). Bivariate correlations
between each of the Big-Five personality dimensions and political
orientation are presented in Table 2.
6.2. Meta-analytic averages
Table 3 presents the average weighted r-values across studies
assuming a random-effects model. This table also displays the low-
er and upper 95% confidence intervals, z-values testing the signif-
icance of the average weighted r(also assuming a random-effects
1
We report results from the BFAS averaged across aspect scales to give overall
indices of each Big-Five dimension.
2
We only report results for the five dimensions of the HEXACO that correspond to
the Big-Five (i.e., we exclude Honesty-Humility).
666 C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677
Table 1
Sample details and correlation coefficients for all studies included the meta-analysis of the relationship between each of the Big-Five personality dimensions and political
orientation.
Reference Sample
details
Personality
measure
Nation Publication
status
Sample
size
Correlation with conservative political orientation
EACNO
Akrami and Ekehammar (in preparation) Mixed BFI Sweden UnPub. 185 .133 .026 .162 .066 .070
Alford and Hibbing (2007) Undergrad Non-Standard US Pub. 299 .097 .153 .012 .021 .136
Caprara, Vecchione, and Schwartz (2009) Undergrad/
School
BFQ Italy Pub. 192 .070 .010 .020
Carney et al. (2008a, Sample 1) Undergrad NEO-PI-R US Pub. 85 .130 .030 .210 .190 .420
Carney et al. (2008a, Sample 2) Undergrad BFI US Pub. 79 .100 .040 .160 .060 .050
Carney et al. (2008a, Sample 3) Undergrad BFI US Pub. 155 .050 .130 .030 .020 .330
Carney et al. (2008a, Sample 4) Undergrad BFI US Pub. 1826 .020 .090 .080 .080 .200
Carney et al. (2008a, Sample 5) Undergrad BFI US Pub. 17,103 .010 .050 .100 .030 .260
Carney et al. (2008a, Sample 6) Undergrad TIPI US Pub. 536 .057 .017 .112 .040 .107
Carney et al. (2008b) Undergrad BFI US UnPub. 83 .040 .010 .270 .100 .280
Choma, Busseri, and Sadava (2009) Undergrad Mini-markers Canada UnPub. 462 .076 .023 .059 .096 .187
Cohrs (2003) Undergrad BFI Germany UnPub. 78 .013 .082 .030 .146 .003
Cohrs (2005) Undergrad BFI Germany UnPub. 93 .208 .011 .157 .177 .332
Cohrs, Kielmann, Maes,
and Moschner (2005, Study 1)
+
Internet NEO-FFI Germany Pub. 602 .021 .170 .075 .083 .302
Cohrs et al. (2005, Study 2) Internet BFI Germany Pub. 508 .025 .043 .123 .078 .132
Crowson (2007) Community Mini-markers US UnPub. 212 .075 .110 .089 .006 .219
Dirilen-Gumus (2009, Study 1) Undergrad BFI US UnPub. 277 .080 .010 .040 .190 .150
Dirilen-Gumus (2009, Study 2) Undergrad BFI Turkey UnPub. 277 .050 .060 .050 .020 .120
Duncan (2002) Undergrad Non-Standard US UnPub. 86 .080 .039 .252 .129 .090
Duncan & Stewart, 2007 Community BFI US Pub. 101 .161 .012 .098 .136 .218
Duriez and Soenens (2006a, Study 1) Undergrads NEO-FFI Belgium Pub. 294 .001 .093 .024 .079 .190
Duriez and Soenens (2006a, Study 2) Undergrad/
School
NEO-FFI Belgium Pub. 323 .063 .201 .081 .017 .304
Duriez and Soenens (2006b)
+
Community NEO-FFI Belgium UnPub. 320 .091 .138 .042 .032 .362
Federico and Tagar (2009) Community IPIP Israel UnPub. 181 .085 .061
Federico, Ergun, and Hunt (2009) Undergrad/
School
IPIP US UnPub. 288 .109 .113 .102 .463
Hirsh et al. (2010) Community BFAS Canada Pub. 146 .015 .029 .142 .016 .145
Hodson, Ashton, and Lee (2009c) Undergrad HEXACO-PI-R Canada UnPub. 158 .045 .113 .062 .016 .241
Hodson, Choma, and Costello (2009b) Undergrad BFI Canada UnPub. 193 .205 .004 .123 .051 .191
Hodson, Hogg, and MacInnis (2009a) Undergrad BFI Canada Pub. 194 .133 .124 .148 .071 .160
Iyer, Koleva, Graham, Ditto,
and Haidt (2009)
Internet BFI Internet UnPub. 24,130 .047 .006 .024 .076 .183
Johnson (2008) Undergrad BFI US UnPub. 209 .092 .057 .064 .028 .159
Jost et al. (2007, Study 1) Undergrad NEO-PI-R US Pub. 182 .171 .010 .181 .143 .393
Jost et al. (2007, Study 3) Undergrad Non-Standard US Pub. 194 .125
Jost et al. (2009) Undergrad TIPI US Pub. 734 .019 .021 .182 .086 .205
Mehrabian (1996, Study 1) Community Non-Standard US Pub. 95 .260
Mehrabian (1996, Study 4) Community Non-Standard US Pub. 167 .150 .130 .070 .010 .160
Mondak (2010) Community Non-Standard US Pub. 1,094 .020 .070 .090 .070 .170
Mondak and Halperin (2008, Sample 1) Community Non-Standard US Pub. 380 .030 .020 .160 .070 .020
Mondak and Halperin (2008, Sample 2) Community Non-Standard US Pub. 782 .040 .030 .090 .110 .050
Mondak and Halperin (2008, Sample 3) Community Non-Standard US Pub. 1,208 .020 .010 .090 .100 .100
Nierman, Crandall, and Gillath (2009a) Undergrad TIPI US UnPub. 178 .110 .010 .120 .180 .040
Nierman, Crandall, and Gillath (2009b) Undergrad TIPI US UnPub. 390 .080 .030 .170 .120 .150
Nosek and Hansen (2008) Internet BFI Internet Pub. 8,662 .022 .023 .100 .081 .214
Onraet, Van Hiel, Roets, and Cornelis
(submitted for publication)
Community NEO-FFI Belgium UnPub. 212 .009 .170 .213 .070 .332
Sibley (2003) Undergrad IPIP NZ UnPub. 55 .010 .280 .210 .336 .329
Sibley (2004) Undergrad IPIP NZ UnPub. 80 .160 .159 .293 .127 .247
Sibley (2005) Undergrad IPIP NZ UnPub. 160 .150 .030 .126 .055 .342
Sibley (2009a) Undergrad TIPI NZ UnPub. 331 .065 .029 .082 .043 .170
Sibley (2009b) Undergrad TIPI NZ UnPub. 158 .169 .149 .143 .061 .142
Sibley and Duckitt (2009) Undergrad IPIP NZ UnPub. 68 .181 .104 .122 .031 .218
Sibley and Duckitt (in press) Community BFAS NZ Pub. 792 .074 .032 .127 .027 .208
Sibley and Wilson (2007, Study 1)
+
Undergrad IPIP NZ Pub. 259 .100 .080 .190 .080 .220
Sibley, Harding, Perry,
Asbrock, and Duckitt (2010)
Undergrad HEXACO-PI-R NZ Pub. 319 .008 .059 .092 .012 .260
Sibley, Perry, and Asbrock (2009a) Undergrad TIPI NZ UnPub. 349 .118 .007 .103 .041 .168
Sibley, Perry, and Asbrock (2009b) Undergrad TIPI NZ UnPub. 378 .142 .050 .065 .026 .188
Silver, Poulin, and Blum (2009) Community TIPI US UnPub. 1574 .020 .040 .040 .060 .090
Stenner (2005) Community Non-Standard US Pub. 361 .123 .177
Torges, Stewart, and Duncan (2008) Community BFI US Pub. 83 .036 .170 .085 .179 .088
Van Hiel (1996) Community NEO-FFI Belgium UnPub. 199 .005 .032 .280 .019 .240
Van Hiel (2005)
+
Community NEO-FFI Belgium UnPub. 144 .082 .104 .142 .131 .196
Van Hiel (2006) Community NEO-FFI Belgium UnPub. 135 .062 .227 .264 .052 .347
Van Hiel and Mervielde (2004, Study 2)
+
Mixed NEO-FFI Belgium Pub. 176 .098 .150 .128 .059 .272
Van Hiel and Mervielde (1996) Undergrad/
School
NEO-FFI Belgium Pub. 175 .159 .058 .109 .018 .126
Van Hiel, Cornelis, and Roets (2007)
+
Community NEO-FFI Belgium Pub. 171 .038 .203 .167 .042 .392
(continued on next page)
C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677 667
model), Q
t
statistics examining the homogeneity of effect sizes
across studies (described below), number of studies included in
the given analysis (k), and the total number of participants (N)
included in each analysis.
Meta-analytic averages indicated that three of the five Big-Five
personality dimensions were reliably correlated with political ori-
entation (see Table 3). Specifically, there was a weak, albeit signif-
icant, positive correlation between Conscientiousness and political
conservatism (weighted r = .098, z= 10.83, p< .01). In contrast, both
Openness to Experience (weighted r =.180, z=15.67, p< .01)
and Neuroticism (weighted r =.033, z=3.90, p< .01) were nega-
tively correlated with political conservatism. The magnitude of this
latter effect, however, was trivial. Finally, Extraversion and Agree-
ableness were uncorrelated with political orientation (weighted
rs6.017, zs61.86, ps > .05). We also present meta-analytic
averages of the relationship between personality and political ori-
entation for each nation (see Table 4).
As shown in Table 3, the Q
t
statistic measuring the cross-study
variability in effect sizes was significant for the bivariate correla-
tions between each of the Big-Five personality dimensions and
political orientation. This indicates that the cross-study variability
in effect sizes for each of these relationships was greater than
chance. It is interesting to note, however, that the Q
t
statistic for
the relationship between Openness to Experience and political
Table 1 (continued)
Reference Sample
details
Personality
measure
Nation Publication
status
Sample
size
Correlation with conservative political orientation
EACNO
Van Hiel et al. (2000, Sample 3) Community NEO-FFI Poland Pub. 134 .042 .041 .090 .031 .106
Von Collani and Grumm (2009, Sample 1) Undergrad BFI Germany Pub. 302 .020 .030 .060 .100 .170
Von Collani and Grumm (2009, Sample 2) Undergrad NEO-FFI Germany Pub. 154 .040 .090 .160 .120 .270
Watson (2009a) Undergrad BFI US UnPub. 388 .060 .080 .120 .050 .090
Watson (2009b) Undergrad BFI US UnPub. 132 .020 .040 .090 .020 .020
Watson (2009c) Community BFI US UnPub. 299 .090 .070 .130 .030 .210
Watson (2009d) Community BFI US UnPub. 195 .040 .100 .110 .010 .310
Watson (2009e) Community BFI US UnPub. 196 .050 .080 .000 .110 .270
Whitaker, Fulwider, and
Herian (2007)
Undergrad Non-Standard US UnPub. 175 .134 .118 .257 .013 .130
Note: Political orientation was scored so that higher values represent greater levels of political conservatism than do lower values. See text for definitions of personality
measures used. E = Extraversion, A = Agreeableness, C = Conscientiousness, N = Neuroticism, and O = Openness to Experience.
+
Denotes samples also included in the meta-analysis of personality and prejudice conducted by Sibley and Duckitt (2008).
Table 2
Summary of sample sizes for the 10 different nations included in the meta-analysis and the corresponding values for each nation’s Human Development Index, intentional
homicide rate, and annual average unemployment rate.
Nation No. of samples NHDI Intentional Homicides
(per 100,000 people)
2000–2004
Annual Average Unemployment
(% of labor force)
1996/2006
Belgium 10 2149 .946 1.5 8.3
Canada 5 1153 .961 1.9 7.7
Germany 6 1737 .935 1.0 8.5
Israel 1 181 .932 2.6 9.0
Italy 1 192 .941 1.2 9.4
New Zealand 11 2949 .943 1.3 5.4
Poland 1 134 .870 1.6 15.7
Sweden 1 185 .956 2.4 6.9
Turkey 1 277 .775 3.8 8.6
United States 34 30,146 .951 5.6 5.0
Mean .945 3.48 6.36
Standard deviation .023 2.09 1.91
Note:N= total number of participants sampled in studies conducted in each nation. Human Development Index (HDI) is based on 2005 figures. Data on intentional homicides
were collected during one year within the 2000–2004 range for each nation (note that legal definitions of intentional homicide may differ across nations). Annual average
unemployment rate represents the percentage of unemployed people in the total available labor force in a given country for the period ranging from 1996 to 2006.
Unemployment data for Israel represent a one-year average for data collected at some point between 1996 and 2005. These data were garnered from The United Nations
Human Development Report (2007/2008). Means and standard deviations represent the grand mean across all 71 included samples.
Table 3
Meta-analysis of bivariate correlations between each Big-Five personality dimension and political orientation.
r95% CI z-test Q
t
No. of studies N
Lower Upper
Extraversion .010 .026 .007 1.19 144.23
**
67 70,584
Agreeableness .017 .035 .001 1.86 192.12
**
70 71,245
Conscientiousness .098 .080 .116 10.83
**
190.36
**
70 71,425
Neuroticism .033 .050 .016 3.90
**
150.63
**
68 70,872
Openness to Experience .180 .202 .158 15.67
**
394.71
**
72 71,895
Note: Political orientation was scored so that higher values represent greater levels of political conservatism than do lower values. r-values and associated confidence
intervals were calculated assuming a random-effects model. z-tests reflect significance tests of weighted r-values, also assuming a random-effects model. Q
t
statistics reflect a
test of the homogeneity of effect sizes, calculated assuming a fixed-effects model.
p< .05.
**
p< .01.
668 C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677
orientation was over twice the size of the Q
t
statistics for the other
four personality dimensions. Still, these findings suggest that
systematic differences across studies moderate the relationship
between personality and political orientation.
6.3. Cross-study differences: effects of study characteristics
The TCM posits that systemic threat will attenuate the relation-
ship between Openness to Experience and political orientation. To
test this hypothesis, we conducted a series of inverse variance
weighted regression analyses using the macros provided by Lipsey
and Wilson (2001) and adopting a mixed-effects model using an
iterative method based on maximum likelihood estimation
(Raudenbush, 1994). In our initial regressions, we regressed the
effect sizes for the relationships between each of the Big-Five
personality dimensions and political orientation onto the following
four study characteristics: (a) publication status, (b) personality
inventory, (c) region (i.e., international region in which the study
was conducted),
3
and (d) sample population (adult vs. under-
graduate vs. mixed). These four factors are the ‘‘usual suspects’’ for
explaining cross-study differences and constitute reasonable alter-
natives to our TCM.
To include these variables in our initial regression model, we
first had to develop a viable coding strategy. As such, publication
status was contrast coded based on whether the study was pub-
lished (coded .50) or unpublished (coded .50). The sheer number
of measures used to assess the Big-Five, however, made it impossi-
ble to create a simple contrast code for the type of personality
inventory used in a given study. To overcome this difficulty, we
created two mutually-exclusive variables that coded each study
based on whether it used (a) the BFI (.50 yes, .50 no) or (b) a
NEO-based measure (i.e., either the NEO-FFI or NEO-PI-R; .50 yes,
.50 no). Miscellaneous personality inventories (e.g., the IPIP)
were thus captured by two .50 contrast codes. A similar two-
variable coding strategy was used to capture differences in sample
region. Specifically, each study was coded based on whether it
sampled (a) North Americans (US and Canada coded as .50, other
coded as .50) or (b) residents of nations in the European Union
(European Union samples coded as .50, other coded as .50). Stud-
ies conducted outside of these regions (e.g., New Zealand, Turkey)
were thus captured by two .50 contrast codes.
Finally, differences in sample populations were captured by
coding each study based on whether it included (a) adult/commu-
nity samples (coded as .50), (b) internet or otherwise ‘‘mixed’’ sam-
ples (coded as 0), or (c) undergraduate samples (coded as .50).
Thus, each regression model’s constant represents the estimated
average (Fisherized) r-value of the relationship between the given
Big-Five personality dimension and political orientation after con-
trolling for our four study characteristics. The results of the full
regression model for each of the Big-Five personality dimensions
are presented in Table 5.
6.3.1. Extraversion
The regression model examining cross-study differences in the
strength of the relationship between Extraversion and political ori-
entation is shown in Table 5. As can be seen, the overall model was
non-significant (Model R
2
= .19; Q
model
(6,60) = 15.23, p= .02). Extra-
version was unrelated to political orientation after controlling for
our four study characteristics (constant = .008, z= .61, p= .54).
Study characteristics did not, however, moderate the relationship
between Extraversion and political orientation.
6.3.2. Agreeableness
Table 5 also shows the results of our regression model predict-
ing cross-study differences in the strength of the relationship
between Agreeableness and political orientation. As can be
seen, the overall model was significant (Model R
2
= .47;
Q
model
(6,63) = 56.86, p< .01). After controlling for our four study
characteristics, there was a weak negative correlation between
Agreeableness and political conservatism (constant = .043,
z=3.67, p< .01). The type of personality inventory used to assess
Agreeableness, however, moderated this relationship. Specifically,
all else being equal, the negative correlation between Agreeable-
ness and political conservatism was weaker in studies that used
the BFI than in studies that used a different measure of Agreeable-
ness (b= .042, z= 2.62, p< .01). There was also a significant effect
of sample population such that the negative correlation between
Agreeableness and political conservatism was slightly stronger in
studies that used adult (relative to undergraduate) samples
(b=.040, z=2.36, p= .02). We return to a discussion of possible
moderators of this relationship in our discussion section.
6.3.3. Conscientiousness
Our regression model examining cross-study differences in the
strength of the relationship between Conscientiousness and political
orientation is also shown in Table 5. As can be seen, the overall model
was non-significant (Model R
2
= .07; Q
model
(6, 63) = 5.27, p= .51). The
constant in this model indicates that there was a weak, albeit
reliable, positive correlation between Conscientiousness and politi-
cal conservatism across studies (constant = .104, z= 7.90, p< .01).
Again, this relationship controls for our four study characteristics.
Table 4
Bivariate correlations between each Big-Five personality dimension and political orientation by country.
Extraversion Agreeableness Conscientiousness Neuroticism Openness to Experience No. of
studies
N
r95% CIs r95% CIs r95% CIs r95% CIs r95% CIs
Belgium .007 (.042, .056) .126 (.176, .076) .134 (.079, .188) .061 (.036, .049) .271 (.318, .222) 10 2149
Canada .082 (.159,.004) .043 (.015,.100) .056 (.035, .145) .059 (.001,.117) .185 (.241, .129) 5 1153
Germany .005 (.052,.043) .068 (.136,.001) .096 (.049, .143) .074 (.132,.016) .210 (.295, .122) 6 1737
Israel – (–, –) .085 (–, –) (–, –) (–, –) .061 (–, –) 1 181
Italy – (–,–) .070 (–, –) .010 (–, –) (–, –) .020 (–, –) 1 192
New Zealand .079 (.128,.030) .008 (.056, .040) .120 (.084,.155) .010 (.031, .051) .211 (.245, .176) 11 2949
Poland .042 (–, –) .041 (–,–) .090 (–, –) .031 (–, –) .106 (–, –) 1 134
Sweden .133 (–,–) .026 (–,–) .162 (–, –) .066 (–, –) .070 (–, –) 1 185
Turkey .050 (–,–) .060 (–, –) .050 (–, –) .020 (–, –) .120 (–, –) 1 277
United States .009 (.011, .030) .006 (.020, .031) .094 (.071, .117) .048 (.072,.024) .155 (.198, .111) 34 30146
Note: Political orientation was scored so that higher values represent greater levels of political conservatism than do lower values. r-values and associated confidence
intervals were calculated assuming a random-effects model. Details regarding the number of studies and sample Nvaried in some cases across different personality measures
within each nation (see Table 2 for full sample size details for each association). Confidence intervals for rwere not estimated for nations with only one sample.
3
Two large internet samples (Sample 30, Iyer et al., 2009; and Sample 43, Nosek
and Hansen, 2008) were excluded from these analyses as we were unable to obtain
information about the nationality of participants in those samples.
C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677 669
6.3.4. Neuroticism
Table 5 also shows our regression model examining cross-study
differences in the strength of the relationship between Neuroticism
and political orientation. As can be seen, the overall model was non-
significant (Model R
2
= .05; Q
model
(6, 61) = 3.75, p= .71). Nonetheless,
there was a weak, albeit reliable, negative correlation between Neu-
roticism and political conservatism across studies (constant =.041,
z=3.07, p< .01). Again, this relationship emerged after controlling
for our four study characteristics. In other words, all else being equal,
the lower people are on Neuroticism (i.e., as people become more
emotionally stable), the higher their political conservatism. None
of our four study characteristics reliably moderated this effect.
6.3.5. Openness to Experience
Finally, Table 5 shows our regression model examining cross-
study differences in the strength of the relationship between Open-
ness to Experience and political orientation. As can be seen, the
overall model was statistically significant (Model R
2
= .27;
Q
model
(6,66) = 33.60, p< .01). The constant in this model indicates
that, after controlling for our four study characteristics, there was
a negative correlation between Openness to Experience and
political conservatism (constant =.234, z=13.59, p< .01). That
is, the higher people are on Openness to Experience, the less likely
they are to identify as conservative. Though the strength of this
relationship was only moderate in size, Openness to Experience
was by far the strongest predictor of political orientation among
the Big-Five personality dimensions.
Table 5 also shows that a few study characteristics moderated
the relationship between Openness to Experience and political
orientation. Specifically, after controlling for other study character-
istics, studies that used NEO-based measures (either NEO-FFI
or NEO-PI-R) reported stronger correlations between Openness
to Experience and political conservatism (b=.250, z=5.25,
p< .01) than did studies that used other measures. Sibley and
Duckitt (2008) observed a similar measurement artefact in their
meta-analysis of personality and prejudice, which, as we indicated
earlier, was largely based on an independent set of studies. They
noted that this artefact was likely due to content overlap between
the Openness to Experience items included in the NEO-based
scales and measures of social attitudes.
We also found that, all else being equal, studies conducted in
nations belonging to the European Union produced weaker corre-
Table 5
Inverse variance mixed-effects weighted regression analyses examining the effects of study characteristics on the relationship between each of the Big-Five personality
dimensions and political orientation.
Study factor b se z-Test Model R
2
Extraversion
Constant .008 .013 .61
Published (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .039 .017 2.19
*
Used BFI (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .009 .020 .48
Used NEO (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .036 .039 .93
North American Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .043 .021 2.09
*
European Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .023 .038 .59
Sample (.50 = undergraduates; 0 = mixed/internet; .50 = community/adult) .022 .019 1.13 .19
Agreeableness
Constant .043 .012 3.67
**
Published (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .005 .015 .36
Used BFI (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .042 .016 2.63
**
Used NEO (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .043 .034 1.28
North American Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .020 .017 1.20
European Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .052 .031 1.68
Sample (.50 = undergraduates; 0 = mixed/internet; .50 = community/adult) .040 .017 2.36
*
.47
**
Conscientiousness
Constant .104 .013 7.90
**
Published (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .016 .017 .89
Used BFI (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .013 .019 .64
Used NEO (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .040 .037 1.06
North American Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .011 .021 .53
European Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .017 .036 .49
Sample (.50 = undergraduates; 0 = mixed/internet; .50 = community/adult) .011 .019 .58 .07
Neuroticism
Constant .041 .013 3.07
**
Published (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .001 .018 .05
Used BFI (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .025 .020 1.24
Used NEO (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .019 .040 .48
North American Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .008 .022 .37
European Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .014 .039 .36
Sample (.50 = undergraduates; 0 = mixed/internet; .50 = community/adult) .031 .020 1.55 .05
Openness to Experience
Constant .234 .017 13.59
**
Published (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .006 .024 .23
Used BFI (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .058 .027 2.13
*
Used NEO (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .250 .048 5.25
**
North American Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .048 .030 1.58
European Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .140 .048 2.92
**
Sample (.50 = undergraduates; 0 = mixed/internet; .50 = community/adult) .018 .026 .70 .27
**
Note: Political orientation was scored so that a higher value reflected a more conservative political orientation. brefers to the unstandardized regression coefficient in
Fischerized (z
r
) effect size units, se refers to the standard error of b. z-tests reflect significance tests of b. All effects were calculated using an inverse variance weighted
regression analysis assuming a mixed-effects model.
*
p< .05.
**
p< .01.
670 C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677
lations between Openness to Experience and political conservatism
than did studies conducted in other nations (b= .140, z= 2.92,
p< .01). This raises the possibility that additional between-country
differences (e.g., systemic threat) moderate this relationship.
6.4. Testing a Threat-Constraint Model of personality and political
orientation
The analyses reported above indicate that a few study charac-
teristics had small, though reliable, effects on the relationship be-
tween Openness to Experience and political orientation. The next
step in evaluating our TCM is to show that measures of systemic
threat predict variability in this relationship above and beyond
these study characteristics. To do this, we re-ran our inverse vari-
ance weighted regression model for Openness to Experience after
adding grand-mean centered national-level rates of (a) intentional
homicide (per 100,000 people) and (b) unemployment. We also
controlled for baseline differences in human development by
entering each nation’s grand-mean centered HDI. Because each of
these measures were centered around the grand mean, the con-
stant in our regression model represents the expected correlation
between Openness to Experience and political orientation for
countries that are at the average level of these three variables
(after controlling for study characteristics).
As shown in Table 6, the overall regression model predicting
variation in the strength of the relationship between Openness
to Experience and political orientation was significant (Model
R
2
= .37; Q
model
(9,61) = 41.66, p< .01). Relative to our earlier model
that only included study characteristics, this model explained an
additional 10% of the cross-study variance in effect sizes. Consistent
with our TCM, systemic danger (as indexed by intentional homicide
rates) moderated the strength of this relationship (b= .053, z= 2.58,
p< .01). Specifically, increases in nation-wide systemic danger
attenuated the relationship between Openness to Experience and
political orientation. Note that the positive bcoefficient for sys-
temic danger leads to a reduction in the strength of this relationship
because the constant in this equation is negative. That is, the posi-
tive bcoefficients for economic and societal indictors of systemic
danger shifted the negative constant towards 0.
Table 6 also shows the impact that systemic instability (as
indexed by annual unemployment rate) has on the relationship be-
tween Openness to Experience and political orientation. Consistent
with our TCM, systemic instability tended to independently moder-
ate this relationship (b= .043, z= 2.35, p= .02). Increases in systemic
instability slightly attenuated the negative relationship between
Openness to Experience and political orientation. The effects of
systemic instability emerged after controlling for specific study
characteristics and nation-wide levels of human development.
Human development (as indexed by the HDI), in contrast, had no im-
pact on the strength of this relationship (b= .835, z= .87, p= .39).
4
To provide a clear demonstration of the impact that systemic
threat has on the relationship between Openness to Experience
and political orientation, we calculated the expected (Fisherized)
correlation for this relationship at different rates of intentional
homicide and unemployment.
5
Our calculations included inten-
tional homicide rates that ranged from 1 to 5 (per 100,000 people)
and unemployment rates that ranged from 5.0% to 9.0%, and were
thus within the sample range for both of these variables. These pro-
jections provide a marked demonstration of the impact subtle
changes in systemic threat have on the relationship between Open-
ness to Experience and political orientation.
As shown in Table 7, the (Fisherized) correlation between
Openness to Experience and political conservatism is predicted
to be r=.422 for a nation with low systemic threat (i.e., a na-
tion with an annual homicide rate = 1 per 100,000 and an unem-
ployment = 5%) all else being equal. At the other extreme, the
(Fisherized) correlation between Openness to Experience and
political conservatism is predicted to be r=.066 for a nation
with high systemic threat (i.e., a nation with an annual homicide
rate = 5 per 100,000 and an unemployment = 9%), all else being
equal.
Intentional homicide rate, unemployment rate, and HDI had
no impact on the relationships between the remaining four
Big-Five personality dimensions and political orientation
(zs < 1). In other words, the moderation effect was entirely lim-
ited to the relationship between Openness and conservatism.
This is consistent with our TCM, which argues that the Open-
ness-conservatism relationship should be particularly sensitive
to systemic danger and instability. Moreover, our data indicated
that Conscientiousness retained a weak positive correlation with
conservatism regardless of the level of nation-wide systemic
threat. Finally, the correlations between the three remaining
Big-Five personality dimensions and political orientation were
trivial in regression models that included our measures of sys-
temic threat (and controls).
Table 6
Inverse variance mixed-effects weighted regression analyses examining the moder-
ating effect of cross-national differences in the Human Development Index and
United Nations indices of intentional homicide rate and annual average unemploy-
ment on the relationship between Openness to Experience and political orientation.
Study factor bsez
Constant .260 .021 12.42
**
Published (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .007 .026 .28
Used BFI (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .079 .034 2.35
*
Used NEO (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .281 .051 5.49
**
North American Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .110 .090 1.23
European Sample (.50 = no; .50 = yes) .069 .077 .90
Sample (.50 = undergraduates; 0 = mixed/
internet; .50 = community/adult)
.010 .029 .33
Human Development Index .838 .968 .87
Intentional Homicide Rate (per 100,000) .053 .020 2.58
**
Annual Average Unemployment .043 .018 2.35
*
Note: Political orientation was scored so that a higher value reflected a more con-
servative political orientation. brefers to the unstandardized regression coefficient
in Fischerized (z
r
) effect size units, se refers to the standard error of b,z-tests reflect
significance tests of b. All effects were calculated using an inverse variance
weighted regression analysis assuming a mixed-effects model. (R
2
= .37, p< .01).
*
p< .05.
**
p< .01.
4
We recalculated all analyses excluding Poland, as the unemployment rate of 15.7%
for this nation might be considered an outlier relative to the other nations included in
our sample (see Table 2 for sample details). We also separately recalculated all
analyses excluding Carney et al. (2008a, Sample 5), as this large US sample (n= 17,103)
may have unduly affected the results given its large size. Poland may also be
considered an outlier relative to the other nations in our sample given that it is a
former communist nation. Kossowska and Van Hiel (2003), for instance, reported that
Need for Closure (a construct closely related to low Openness to Experience) predicted
increased economic liberalism in Poland. This is consistent with the premise that Need
for Closure (low Openness) should predict increased support for the status quo, and
given its status as a former communist nation, the status quo in Poland would have
been one of socialism and economic liberalism rather than free-market capitalism. The
effects of intentional homicide rate (b= .063, se = .024. z= 2.64, p< .01) and unem-
ployment (b= .059, se = .026. z= 2.25, p= .02) on the Openness–political orientation
association were comparable in significance, and in fact slightly greater in magnitude,
when Polish data were excluded. We however opted to report the model with Poland
included. Note that all regional differences (North American samples, European Union
Samples, and other samples) in the association between Openness and political
orientation also remained comparable when Poland was excluded from the analysis.
The effects of intentional homicide rate (b= .055, se = .021. z= 2.62, p< .01) and
unemployment (b= .044, se = .018. z= 2.37, p= .02) on the Openness-political orien-
tation association were also comparable when the large sample reported by Carney
et al. (2008a, Sample 5) was excluded from the model.
5
For ease of presentation, we calculated the predicted correlations for a parallel
linear increase in homicide and unemployment rates.
C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677 671
7. Discussion
There has been an explosion of interest in the relationship be-
tween personality and political orientation in recent years. Indeed,
both Jost et al. (2003) and Sibley and Duckitt (2008) have
presented comprehensive meta-analytic reviews of related areas.
A meta-analysis of research focusing specifically on the relation-
ships between each of the Big-Five personality dimensions and
political orientation, however, has remained absent from the
literature.
We addressed this lacuna by conducting a meta-analysis of 73
samples from 10 nations (N= 71,895) that examined the relation-
ship between one or more of the Big-Five personality dimensions
and political orientation. We limited our analyses to studies that
included single-item Likert-style rating measures of political orien-
tation as liberal versus conservative. This is arguably one of the
most widely used measures of ideology in political psychology,
and, despite its brevity, has considerable predictive utility. Jost
(2006) reported single-item measures of liberal versus conserva-
tive self-placement consistently explained between 80% and 90%
of the variance in presidential vote choice for United States’
elections over a 30-year period from 1972 to 2004.
Nearly half of the samples we sourced were previously unpub-
lished, whereas the majority of published studies were reanalyzed
because they had not reported the bivariate correlations between
personality and political orientation. Moreover, there was little-
to-no overlap between the studies included in our meta-analysis
and those that were a part of either Jost et al.’s (2003) or Sibley
and Duckitt’s (2008) meta-analyses. As such, our results are based
on a mostly independent (and very large) set of samples, the
majority of which have not been reported in the literature.
7.1. Summary of meta-analytic averages
Our meta-analysis showed that Openness to Experience and
Conscientiousness were both reliably correlated with political ori-
entation. Averaged across studies, however, these two dimensions
of personality displayed (at best) weak associations with political
orientation. Specifically, the negative correlation between Open-
ness to Experience and political conservatism was relatively small
(r=.18), and the correlation between Conscientiousness and
political conservatism was smaller still (r= .10).
These small average effect sizes are startling given the extensive
research focus on the personality antecedents of political orienta-
tion that has emerged in recent years (e.g., Alford & Hibbing,
2007; Gerber, Huber, Doherty, Dowling, & Ha, 2010; Jost et al.,
2003; Mondak, 2010). Our meta-analysis indicates that the person-
ality antecedents of political orientation, while theoretically
important for a unified model of individual differences in attitudes
and voting behavior, are only one small (and subtle) part of such a
model. Indeed, averaged across studies, Openness to Experience
explained only 3.2%, whereas Conscientiousness only explained
1.0%, of the variance in political orientation. The other three-
dimensions of the Big-Five had (at best) trivial associations with
political orientation.
These findings demonstrate that there is vastly more variance in
political orientation that remains to be explained by factors other
than the Big-Five. Moreover, our analyses show that the small
effect sizes for personality were relatively consistent within each
nation. Our results indicate that it may be a misnomer to charac-
terize the different personality ‘styles’, ‘types’ or ‘temperaments’
of liberals and conservatives. Indeed, these labels imply far larger
personality differences between liberals and conservatives than
may actually exist.
Of course, the average associations between personality and
political orientation we observed in our meta-analysis may have
been attenuated by our focus on single-item self-placement mea-
sures of political orientation. For instance, Sibley and Duckitt
(2008) showed that Openness correlated with multi-item
measures of Right-Wing Authoritarianism (which should relate to
moral or social aspects of conservatism) at r=.36. Similarly, in
their multilevel analysis of 14 New Zealand samples, Wilson and
Sibley (in press) showed that Right-Wing Authoritarianism corre-
lated with political conservatism (measured in a variety of differ-
ent ways) at r= .48. Such associations may also depend upon
levels of political sophistication, as recent work suggests that peo-
ple with a greater knowledge of politics tend to be more likely to
vote or express political attitudes in ways that are theoretically
consistent with their personality (Osborne & Sibley, submitted
for publication a, submitted for publication b). Nevertheless, when
indexed using simple single-item measures, it seems that self-
reported political orientation is only weakly related to the Big-Five
dimensions of personality.
While the personality-conservatism associations we observed
were small on average, we identified reliable differences across
studies that at least partially explain why personality was more
weakly correlated with political orientation in some samples rela-
tive to others. In the following sections, we first discuss findings for
four study characteristics that could plausibly explain this cross-
study variation: (a) publication bias, (b) personality inventory, (c)
national region in which a study was conducted, and (d) sample
population (adult vs. mixed vs. undergraduate). We then summa-
rize findings from the initial test of our Threat-Constraint Model,
which indicates that to understand the association between Open-
ness to Experience and political orientation, one must consider
other factors relating to threat and economic stability. Threat and
economic stability these have a critical effect on the extent to
which people’s political orientation is expressed in ways consistent
with their default personality tendencies.
7.1.1. Publication bias
Contrary to the ‘‘file drawer problem’’ noted in meta-analyses of
experimental data (Rosenthal, 1979), the unpublished studies we
analyzed reported effect sizes that were comparable to those found
in published studies. Sibley and Duckitt (2008) observed a similar
lack of publication bias in studies that examined the relationship
Table 7
Predicted correlation between Openness to Experience and political conservatism at
different linear combinations of intentional homicide and unemployment rates.
Systemic
threat
Intentional
homicides (per
100,000 people)
Unemployment
rate (% of labor
force)
Predicted correlation
between openness
to experience and
conservatism
Low
High
1.0 5.0 .422
1.5 5.5 .382
2.0 6.0 .340
2.5 6.5 .297
3.0 7.0 .252
3.5 7.5 .207
4.0 8.0 .161
4.5 8.5 .113
5.0 9.0 .066
Note: The equation to calculate these predicted effects takes the general form of:
predicted effect size (Fisherized rvalue) = constant + ((predicted value of homi-
cide bcoefficient) + (predicted value of unemployment bcoefficient)). The
predicted value is adjusted to account for the fact that the constant represented the
value at the mean level of homicide and unemployment rates in our regression
model. This yields the following equation predicting a Fisherized r-value for the
association between Openness to Experience and political orientation at homicide
conditions of 1 person per 100,000 and a 5% unemployment rate of: effect
size = .260 + ((2.48 .053) + (1.36 .043)) = .445 (note that the predicted
values are adjusted as they deviate from mean centered values). Converting this
Fisherized effect size back to an r-value gives us an r=.422.
672 C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677
between personality and prejudice. It seems that publication bias
is more common in experimental than in correlational studies.
We suspect this is because experimental and correlation studies
usually have different goals. Specifically, the merits of a given
experimental study are often tied to the detection of specific
hypothesized differences. Correlational studies, in contrast, tend
to examine general patterns of relationships between a broad set
or combination of variables. Regardless of the reason(s) for this dif-
ferential susceptibility to publication bias, it is encouraging to find
that effect size estimates in correlational studies are not upwardly
biased in the published literature (at least not among those that
examine the personality correlates of political orientation).
7.1.2. Personality inventory
The two most frequently used personality inventories in our
sample were the NEO-FFI and the BFI. Given their frequent
usage, we examined the extent to which studies employing
either of these measures produced average effect sizes that dif-
fered from those produced by studies using other personality
measures (e.g., the TIPI, trait adjective ratings, or IPIP-based
measures). Our analyses indicated that the type of personality
inventory used in a given study had no influence on the size
of the correlations between three of the five Big-Five personality
dimensions (namely, Extraversion, Conscientiousness, and
Neuroticism) and political orientation. Studies using the BFI,
however, reported a slightly stronger (though nonetheless weak)
relationship between Agreeableness and conservatism than did
studies using alternative measures. Taken together, this suggests
that different personality inventories measure Extraversion,
Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Neuroticism in a similar
manner – insofar as they relate to ideology.
In marked contrast, the type of personality inventory used to
assess Openness to Experience dramatically affected its relation-
ship with political orientation. Our results showed that, after
controlling for the other three study characteristics, studies that
used a NEO-based personality inventory produced correlations
between Openness to Experience and political orientation that
were roughly double the size of those obtained in studies that
used other personality inventories. Sibley and Duckitt (2008)
identified a similar bias in the relationship between Openness
to Experience and prejudice. Specifically, the average correlation
between Openness to Experience and prejudice was near r=.40
for studies that used the NEO-FFI or NEO-PI-R, but only around
r=.15 for studies that used the BFI. This suggests that different
personality inventories operationalize Openness to Experience
with varying success.
We attribute this difference to a bias in the NEO items for Open-
ness to Experience. Specifically, the NEO includes items that reflect
social attitudes and values that closely parallel that included in
many common measures of political conservatism. Consider, for
example, the following items from the NEO-PI-R (O6) values facet
of Openness to Experience: ‘‘I believe that the ‘new morality’ of
permissiveness is no morality at all’’ and ‘‘I believe that loyalty
to one’s ideals and principles is more important than ‘open-
mindedness.’’’ These items strike us as being measures of political
ideology (or related authoritarian beliefs) rather than personality.
Van Hiel and Mervielde (2004), for example, raised a similar con-
cern in their analysis of the relationship between NEO-PI-R facets
of Openness to Experience and conservatism. Likewise, DeYoung
et al. (2007) conducted a facet-level Exploratory Factor Analysis
and found that five of the six facets of NEO-PI-R Openness to
Experience loaded reasonably well onto distinct dual aspects of
Openness to Experience (namely, openness and intellect). The O6
Values facet, in contrast, loaded poorly on both of these factors.
We view the values facet of the NEO-PI-R as a measure that is
closer to Right-Wing Authoritarianism than it is to personality.
7.1.3. Undergraduate versus adult samples
Undergraduate and community/adult samples yielded nearly
identical correlations between each of the Big-Five personality
dimensions and political orientation. There was, however, one
exception. The negative correlation between Agreeableness and
political conservatism was slightly stronger in studies conducted
with undergraduates relative to those conducted with adults.
These findings imply that individual differences in Agreeableness,
but not other dimensions of personality, predict political attitudes
better in younger (i.e., undergraduate) than in older samples. Our
data therefore support Sibley and Duckitt’s (2008) suggestion that
Agreeableness and political attitudes share a similar developmen-
tal trajectory in late adolescence/early adulthood and, as a result,
co-vary highly during this period. We stress, however, that the
effect of sample population was extremely small in our data.
Our comparison of undergraduate and adult samples tells a
story of impressive consistency: The relationship between person-
ality and political orientation observed in undergraduate samples
tended to generalize to older (and presumably more representa-
tive) samples from the general community. It seems that, at least
when dealing with the relationship between personality and polit-
ical orientation, one can be reasonably confident that the findings
produced in studies based on undergraduates can be generalized to
other samples. As indicated above, the type of instrument used to
assess personality seems to be far more important than the age of
the sample population.
7.1.4. Regional differences
We also examined the possibility that broad regional differ-
ences could explain why the relationship between personality
and political orientation differed across samples. To do this, we
classified studies into three broad regional categories: (a) those
conducted in North America (i.e., the US and Canada), (b) those
conducted in the European Union, and (c) those conducted in other
nations. All else being equal, results indicated that the strength of
the relationships between four of the five Big-Five personality
dimensions (i.e., Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness,
and Neuroticism) and political orientation were comparable across
regions. Thus, regardless of where the study was conducted,
Conscientiousness tended to be weakly correlated with political
conservatism, whereas Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroti-
cism tended to be uncorrelated with political orientation.
The relationship between Openness to Experience and political
orientation was another story. Specifically, our results indicated
that studies conducted in the European Union observed correla-
tions between Openness to Experience and political orientation
that were nearly half the size of those seen in studies conducted
in other nations. Because the European Union includes nations that
vary considerably in their levels of systemic threat, this finding
provides indirect support for our TCM.
7.2. The Threat-Constraint Model (TCM) of personality and political
orientation
As noted earlier, a number of studies support the general thesis
that situational factors can inhibit or constrain a person’s auto-
matic/baseline tendencies to act a certain way (i.e., one’s personal-
ity). This general Person Situation thesis states that personality
should be most predictive of behavior when situational factors
(e.g., extreme social norms or chronic perceptions of the social
world) do not inhibit individual tendencies. When extreme situa-
tional factors are present, however, individual-differences in
behavior and related variables (e.g., political orientation) should
be reduced (see Mischel & Shoda, 1995, 1999, for discussion of this
issue). These assumptions form the basis of our TCM of Openness
to Experience and political orientation.
C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677 673
Our meta-analysis provides strong support for the Person Sit-
uation interaction predicted by our TCM. Controlling for specific
study characteristics, our results showed that cross-national differ-
ences in systemic danger (i.e., intentional homicide rate) and, to a
lesser degree, systemic instability (i.e., national unemployment
rate) moderated the relationship between Openness to Experience
and political conservatism. Specifically, when systemic threat
within a nation is low (annual homicide rate = 1 per 100,000 and
unemployment = 5%), this relationship is expected to be particu-
larly robust (r=.422). When systemic threat within a nation is
high (i.e., annual homicide rate = 5 per 100,000 and unemploy-
ment = 9%), in contrast, this same relationship is expected to be
trivial (r=.066).
These results suggest that a liberal political orientation may be
thought of as (for lack of a better term) a relative luxury. People
who are interested in novelty and, creativity (i.e., those who are
high on Openness) tend to adopt a liberal political orientation. This
tendency only emerges, however, when cues from the environ-
ment signal that the world is relatively safe, stable, and/or predict-
able. This interpretation is consistent with Ashton and Lee’s (2007)
cost-benefit analysis of the evolved origins of species-wide varia-
tion in Openness to Experience (see Table 8). Openness to Experi-
ence should shape a person’s tendency to perceive environments
as being more or less conducive to novelty and risk. This automatic
tendency, however, will be constrained by extreme, obvious, and/
or overt cues that signal the presence of danger in the environment
(i.e., systemic threat). Many scholars have argued that a liberal
political position is inherently one that advocates change to the
status quo and increased social equality (see for example, Jost,
West, & Gosling, 2009). Our results demonstrate that people who
are high in Openness to Experience are more willing than their
counterparts who are low in Openness Experience to endorse a
liberal position. As predicted by our TCM, however, this willingness
is severely constrained when environmental cues signal that the
world is unsafe.
What is particularly compelling about our analysis is that we
were able to define likely boundary conditions within which Open-
ness to Experience will predict political orientation, and thus
potentially voting behavior. The predicted correlation coefficients
displayed in Table 7 show that very small changes to nation-wide
intentional homicide and unemployment rates can dramatically
affect the strength of the relationship between Openness to Expe-
rience and political orientation. When systemic threat is low, there
are relatively few constraints on this relationship. When systemic
threat is high, in contrast, the relationship between Openness to
Experience and political orientation is reduced to the point that
these two variables are only trivially associated.
At the low end of systemic threat, a rate of 1 homicide per
100,000 people is only slightly below the rates observed in Italy
and New Zealand (i.e., 1.2 and 1.3, respectively; United Nations
Human Development Report, 2007/2008). Similarly, an unemploy-
ment rate of 5% is identical to that observed in the US for the period
of 1996–2006. It is easy to imagine a nation with homicide and
unemployment rates near both of these figures (prior to the 2009
economic collapse, New Zealand was reasonably close). These are
precisely the conditions that are likely to yield a strong relation-
ship between Openness to Experience and political orientation.
At the other extreme are nations with high systemic threat. It is
also all too easy to imagine a nation with an intentional homicide
rate of 5 per 100,000 people and an unemployment rate of 9%. In
fact, this homicide rate is lower than the one observed in the US
for the 2000–2004 period (i.e., 5.6 per 100,000 people). Moreover,
given the economic collapse of 2009, many nations currently have
an unemployment rate closely approaching (or even exceeding) 9%.
Nevertheless, the studies included in our meta-analysis did not
include nations with both homicide and unemployment rates
approaching those we defined as ‘high’ systemic threat. This caveat
must be kept in mind when interpreting projections based on our
meta-analytic synthesis.
7.3. Strengths, caveats, and an agenda for future research
Our analyses were, by necessity, based on data collected across
a number of years. It is important to keep in mind that, in most
cases, we did not have information on the exact year in which data
were collected. Because there is often a time lag between data
collection and publication, we were reluctant to use publication
year as a covariate in our analyses. As such, we cannot say with
certainty that our indicators of systemic danger and instability cor-
respond to the exact time at which data were collected. This also
made it impossible for us to examine whether the relationship be-
tween personality and political orientation systematically changed
over time. It is likely, however, that the relationship between
Openness to Experience and political orientation would experience
a temporary change in response to dramatic events (e.g., the period
following September 11th for studies conducted in the United
States).
Our suspicion that short-term forces affect the relationship
between Openness to Experience and political orientation is indi-
rectly supported by other studies. Relative to before the attacks,
both liberals and conservatives in the United States were more
conservative in their policy preferences immediately after the ter-
rorist attacks of September 11th, 2001 (Nail & McGregor, 2009).
Recent work has also shown that priming mortality salience in-
creased support for John McCain, the Republican candidate in the
2008 US Presidential Election (Vail, Arndt, Motyl, & Pyszczynski,
2009). Historiometric analyses of voting behavior have observed
a similar pattern. For example, conservative political incumbents
receive greater support during periods of high social threat,
whereas liberal political incumbents receive greater support
during periods of low threat (Doty, Peterson, & Winter, 1991). This
supports our argument that danger and threat (as well as changes
in the cognitive accessibility of danger and threat) alter the extent to
Table 8
Summary of item content, and theoretical cost-benefit trade-offs associated with high
versus low levels of Openness to Experience and Conscientiousness (adapted from
Ashton & Lee, 2007,Table 3, p. 156).
Definition and basis for variation and in Openness to Experience
Interpretation Engagement in ideas-related endeavors
Common defining
adjectives
Intellectual, creative, unconventional, innovative,
ironic
Versus
Shallow, unimaginative, conventional
Sample IPIP Items ‘‘Have a vivid imagination’’
‘‘Have difficulty understanding abstract ideas’’
Versus
‘‘Do not have a good imagination’’
‘‘Am not interested in abstract ideas’’
Benefits of high level Material and social gains (resulting from
discovery)
Benefits of low level Energy and time; risks from social and natural
environment
Distinct facets or
aspects
Intellect and openness
Note: The interpretation, common defining adjectives, and benefits of a high versus
low level of Openness to Experience are reproduced from Ashton and Lee (2007,
Table 2, p. 154, and Table 3, p. 156). Ashton and Lee (2007) proposed this cost-
benefit analysis of high versus low trait levels in the context of the HEXACO model
of personality structure. However, their analysis applies equally to Big-Five models
of Openness to Experience as this personality dimension is operationalized very
similarly in both Five- and Six-Factor models. Sample IPIP items are taken from the
Mini-IPIP, developed by Donnellan, Oswald, Baird, and Lucas (2006). The distinct
facets or aspects of Openness to Experience are those proposed by DeYoung et al.
(2007).
674 C.G. Sibley et al. / Journal of Research in Personality 46 (2012) 664–677
which people adopt conservative political views. It is also consis-
tent with our finding that systemic threat attenuated the relation-
ship between Openness to Experience and political orientation.
Our findings emphasize the need for further large-scale cross-
cultural studies examining the relationship between personality
and political orientation. The meta-analytic data synthesized
here provide an initial test of our thesis that societal threat and
instability constrains the extent to which people express political
orientations (and presumably voting behavior) in ways that are
theoretically consistent with their underlying personalities.
Mapping the parameters governing such effects will require com-
prehensive (and large-scale) cross-cultural research that assesses
the relationship between personality and various indicators of
political orientation in as many nations as possible (and at parallel
multiple points in time).
As indicated earlier, we restricted our meta-analysis to studies
that utilized single-item ratings of political orientation as liberal
versus conservative. Though there are drawbacks to this approach,
we focused our attention on this specific operationalization of polit-
ical orientation because of its common usage in the published (and
unpublished) literature. On the one hand, this allowed us to include
a large number of studies in our meta-analysis. Indeed, we located
73 studies that met our inclusion criteria. On the other hand, focus-
ing on research that used a unidimensional measure of political ori-
entation prevents us from examining the specific relationships
between personality and multiple dimensions of conservatism
(e.g., economic and social conservatism). Given that there are many
multi-item measures of political orientation available (e.g., Janoff-
Bulman, 2009;Stangor & Leary, 2006), future research would be
well-advised to make use of these measures when examining the
relationship between personality and political orientation.
8. Concluding comments
The exploration of possible personality differences in political
orientation has long-captivated scholars. The current study synthe-
sized this research by providing a meta-analytic review of studies
that have examined the relationship between one or more of the
Big-Five personality dimensions and single-item measures of polit-
ical orientation. Our results indicated that Conscientiousness was
positively, but Openness to Experience was negatively, correlated
with political conservatism. The size of the association between
these two dimensions of personality and political orientation,
however, was relatively small. Although Openness and Conscien-
tiousness do predict political conservatism, the lion’s share of vari-
ance remains unexplained by the broad factors of personality.
Moreover, despite having a small average effect size across studies,
the association between Openness to Experience and political orien-
tation varied substantially depending upon levels of systemic threat
and instability (as indexed by unemployment and national homicide
rates). Our TCM shows that relatively small shifts in these two objec-
tive national metrics can lead to quite dramatic shifts in the extent to
which personality correlates with political orientation.
Our findings are particularly relevant for understanding the fac-
tors that influence people’s political worldviews. Our results high-
light the need to create unified models of political behavior that
incorporate Person Situation interactions. As we have shown,
the relationship between personality and political orientation fun-
damentally depends on the social context. Therefore, assessing
either of these explanatory variables in isolation would miss an
important piece of the puzzle. We hope that these meta-analytic
findings stimulate additional (and more comprehensive) cross-
cultural studies that link personality and economic factors to pre-
dict political ideology (and voting behavior). Although Aristotle
(350 BC/1988) may have been correct in asserting that different
people are motivated to establish different ‘‘forms of government’’
(p. 167), it is also true that the larger social context will profoundly
affect the types of government that people are likely to consider.
Acknowledgments
Order of authorship is arbitrary. All three authors contributed
equally to this manuscript. We are indebted to the following
people for generously providing unpublished data or reanalyses
of previously published data for use in this meta-analysis: Nazar
Akrami, Dana Carney, Chris Cohrs, Becky Choma, Mike Crowson,
Ozlem Dirilen-Gumus, Lauren Duncan, Bart Duriez, Christopher
Federico, Sam Gosling, Jesse Graham, Jacob Hirsh, Gordon Hodson,
Sara Johnson, Jeffery Mondak, Jaime Napier, Angela Nierman, Brian
Nosek, Michael Poulin, Alain Van Hiel, and David Watson.
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Book
Part I. From There to Here - Theoretical Background: 1. From visiousness to viciousness: theories of intergroup relations 2. Social dominance theory as a new synthesis Part II. Oppression and its Psycho-Ideological Elements: 3. The psychology of group dominance: social dominance orientation 4. Let's both agree that you're really stupid: the power of consensual ideology Part III. The Circle of Oppression - The Myriad Expressions of Institutional Discrimination: 5. You stay in your part of town and I'll stay in mine: discrimination in the housing and retail markets 6. They're just too lazy to work: discrimination in the labor market 7. They're just mentally and physically unfit: discrimination in education and health care 8. The more of 'them' in prison, the better: institutional terror, social control and the dynamics of the criminal justice system Part IV. Oppression as a Cooperative Game: 9. Social hierarchy and asymmetrical group behavior: social hierarchy and group difference in behavior 10. Sex and power: the intersecting political psychologies of patriarchy and empty-set hierarchy 11. Epilogue.