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Accurate by way of aggregation: Should you trust your intuition-based first impressions?
Abstract
How much should you trust your intuition about other people's job performance? Different literatures provide different answers to this question. Social psychological research on “thin slices” suggests that untrained observers can predict a person's job performance based on a few moments of observation. Industrial/organizational psychologists have found a weaker relationship between job performance and the intuitive judgments that people make following employment interviews. This paper argues that interviewers' intuitive judgments appear to be weaker predictors than intuitive judgments of thin slices because thin slices research measures predictive validity at the aggregate-level of analysis. Intuition-based first impressions will not usually be valid predictors of job performance unless people have an opportunity to collect and combine the judgments of multiple independent raters.
... This paper contributes to a growing body of scholarship on the nature and significance of intuition in business and management (Burke and Miller, 1999;Dane and Pratt, 2007;Hayes et al., 2004;Miller and Ireland, 2005;Parikh et al., 1994;Sadler-Smith and Shefy, 2004;Salas et al., 2010), as well as debates surrounding the salience of intuition in HR in general and selection in particular (Allinson and Hayes, 2000;Colarelli and Thompson, 2008;Diab et al., 2011;Eisenkraft, 2013;Fisher, 2008;Highhouse, 2008a, b;Jones and Saundry, 2012;Lodato et al., 2011;Klimoski and Jones, 2008;Monks et al., 2012;Myers, 2002;Nickson et al., 2008;Skinner, 2004;Spence and Petrick, 2006) and the shortcomings in the practices of employee selection in some sectors (Lockyer and Scholarios, 2007). In spite of these various efforts there are surprisingly few studies devoted to researching the role of intuition in employee selection practice. ...
... Ambady and colleagues observed that ratings by untrained observers based on evaluative thin slices (video clips between two-and ten-seconds in length) can predict important outcomes with high levels of accuracy including students' rating of teachers (Ambady and Rosenthal, 1993), effectiveness of sales managers (Ambady et al., 2006), surgical malpractice (Ambady et al., 2002b), and physical therapists' performance in terms of patient outcomes (Ambady et al., 2002a). Thin slices are more valuable for assessing interpersonal rather than non-interpersonal task-related skills and provide powerful predictions of performance, explaining approximately 15 per cent of overall variation based on aggregated data (Eisenkraft, 2013). ...
... As noted, one participant reported a bespoke system he had developed to capture subjective intuitions in an attempt to render any holistic impressions which arose during the interview amenable to scoring. More generally the adoption of a structured and systematic approach militates against the problems of focusing on performance-irrelevant factors, applying different standards to different applicants and basing evaluations on inconsistent criteria (Eisenkraft, 2013;Highhouse, 2008a, b). One should not lose sight of the fact that intuitions are judgements (Dane and Pratt, 2007), therefore intuition-based hiring is one means by which "hypotheses" about candidates may generated (e.g. ...
Purpose
– This qualitative study of managers’ use of intuition in the selection process aimed to understand if and how managers use intuition in employee hiring decisions and suggest ways in which the use of intuition might be improved. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
– Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with managers from a range of backgrounds, and with varying experience of recruitment and selection.
Findings
– Findings revealed that reasons for the use of intuition included personal preferences, resource constraints and recognition of the limitations of more structured approaches. Intuition was used an indicator for performance, personality and person-environment fit. Intuition tended to be used with requisite caution; participants were aware of its limits, the potential for bias and the difficulties in justifying its use; several participants used their intuitions in concert with more structured, non-intuition based approaches.
Research limitations/implications
– The small-scale investigative study has limited generalisability. The paper concludes with five specific recommendations on how to improve managers’ understanding and use of intuition in employee selection.
Originality/value
– Despite increased interest in intuition in management there is a paucity of qualitative studies of intuition-in-use in management in general and in personnel in particular. This research helps to fill this gap.
... Whereas assessor training programs and rating aids have been a hallmark of I/O psychology, thin slices researchers have rarely undertaken efforts to train judges and use rating aids. Conversely, to reduce assessor-specific idiosyncrasies, ratings were often aggregated across a large number of judges (Eisenkraft, 2013). One provocative result of Study 2 was that validities of untrained assessors' ratings were often not significantly different from those of trained assessors. ...
... For instance,Ambady and Rosenthal (1992) calculated that the median number of judges in their meta-analysis was 37 (range: 2-446). This aggregation across judges reduces idiosyncrasies and boosts reliabilities and validities(Eisenkraft, 2013). In operational multiple, speed simulations, such a large number of assessors is not feasible and therefore investments in training and rating aids are made. ...
Recently, multiple, speeded assessments (e.g., "speeded" or "flash" role-plays) have made rapid inroads into the selection domain. So far, however, the conceptual underpinning and empirical evidence related to these short, fast-paced assessment approaches has been lacking. This raises questions whether these speeded assessments can serve as reliable and valid indicators of future performance. This article uses the notions of stimulus and response domain sampling to conceptualize multiple, speeded behavioral job simulations as a hybrid of established simulation-based selection methods. Next, we draw upon the thin slices of behavior paradigm to theorize about the quality of ratings made in multiple, speeded behavioral simulations. In two studies, various assessor pools assessed a sample of 96 MBA students in 18 3-min role-plays designed to capture situations in the junior management domain. At the individual speeded role-play level, reliability and validity were not ensured. Yet, aggregated across all assessors' ratings of all speeded role-plays, the overall score for predicting future performance was high (.54). Validities remained high when assessors evaluated only the first minute (vs. full 3 min) or received only a control training (vs. traditional assessor training). Aggregating ratings of performance in multiple, heterogeneous situations that elicit a variety of domain-relevant behavior emerged as key requirement to obtain adequate domain coverage, capture both ability and personality (extraversion and agreeableness), and achieve substantial validities. Overall, these results show the importance of the stimulus and response domain sampling logic and send a strong warning to using "single" speeded behavioral simulations in practice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).
... For instance, Ambady and Rosenthal (1992) calculated that the median number of judges in their meta-analysis was 37 (range: 2-446). This aggregation across judges reduces idiosyncrasies, and boost reliabilities and validities (Eisenkraft, 2013). In operational multiple, speed simulations, such a large number of assessors is not feasible and therefore investments in training and rating aids are made. ...
... Whereas assessor training programs and rating aids have been a hallmark of I/O psychology, thin slices researchers have rarely undertaken efforts to train judges and use rating aids. Conversely, to reduce assessor-specific idiosyncrasies ratings were often aggregated across a large number of judges (Eisenkraft, 2013). One provocative result of Study 2 was that validities of untrained assessors' ratings were often not significantly different from those of trained assessors. ...
... Likewise, behavioral ratings from single assessors are prone to assessor-specific error variance (idiosyncrasies). So, aggregating across behavioral ratings from multiple assessors should increase reliability (Eisenkraft, 2013). ...
... In addition, Multiple Speed Assessments sample behavioral ratings of participants in a large diversity of situations that are provided by multiple assessors. This aggregation process aims to dissolve potential idiosyncrasies on behalf of assessors (Eisenkraft, 2013;Epstein, 1979). So, in light of the "law" of aggregation, the key point is that the overall Multiple Speed Assessment evaluation (thus aggregated across multiple situations) should serve as a reliable indicator of domain related behavior. ...
This paper presents Multiple Speed Assessments as an umbrella term to encompass a variety of approaches that include multiple (e.g., 20), short (e.g., 3 min), and often integrated interpersonal simulations to elicit overt behavior in a standardized way across participants. Multiple Speed Assessments can be used to get insight into the behavioral repertoire of a target person in situations sampled from a predefined target domain and their intraindividual variability across these situations. This paper outlines the characteristics and theoretical basis of Multiple Speed Assessments. We also discuss various already existing examples of Multiple Speed Assessments (Objective Structured Clinical Examinations, Multiple Mini-Interviews, and constructed response multimedia tests) and provide an overview of design variations. Finally, we present current research evidence and future research directions related to Multiple Speed Assessments. Although we present Multiple Speed Assessments in the context of personnel selection, it can also be used for assessment in the educational, personality, or clinical psychology field.
... Whereas assessor training programs and rating aids have been a hallmark of I/O psychology, thin slices researchers have rarely undertaken efforts to train judges and use rating aids. Conversely, to reduce assessor-specific idiosyncrasies, ratings were often aggregated across a large number of judges (Eisenkraft, 2013). One provocative result of Study 2 was that validities of untrained assessors' ratings were often not significantly different from those of trained assessors. ...
... For instance,Ambady and Rosenthal (1992) calculated that the median number of judges in their meta-analysis was 37 (range: 2-446). This aggregation across judges reduces idiosyncrasies and boosts reliabilities and validities(Eisenkraft, 2013). In operational multiple, speed simulations, such a large number of assessors is not feasible and therefore investments in training and rating aids are made. ...
... Whereas assessor training programs and rating aids have been a hallmark of I/O psychology, thin slices researchers have rarely undertaken efforts to train judges and use rating aids. Conversely, to reduce assessor-specific idiosyncrasies, ratings were often aggregated across a large number of judges (Eisenkraft, 2013). One provocative result of Study 2 was that validities of untrained assessors' ratings were often not significantly different from those of trained assessors. ...
... For instance,Ambady and Rosenthal (1992) calculated that the median number of judges in their meta-analysis was 37 (range: 2-446). This aggregation across judges reduces idiosyncrasies and boosts reliabilities and validities(Eisenkraft, 2013). In operational multiple, speed simulations, such a large number of assessors is not feasible and therefore investments in training and rating aids are made. ...
... For some, they have become distanced from their intuition in that it may sound like no louder than a faint whisper (Cartwright, 2011). That whisper can be difficult to take seriously when external factors can be much louder (Eisenkraft, 2013;Klein, 2004). For others, there is a complete disconnect from the inner knowledge (Ma-inner wisdom. ...
Black and endarkened feminist epistemologies are grounded in the understanding that Black women have ways of knowing and knowledge production that have been overlooked and undervalued in patriarchal, white systems (e.g., academia) (Collins, 2000; Dillard, 2008). In this dissertation, I uplift those ways of knowing. Sister Space is a virtual support group in which I aimed to investigate emotional intimacy, notions of strength and online support group work for Black graduate student women. Using my personal experiences and insights facilitating Sister Space, I center the knowledge and experiences of Black graduate student women. I highlight the various roles I have played in my own life as a Black academic woman in the US, including the support group facilitator (i.e., clinician) and Strong Black woman (Abrams et al., 2014). I highlight complicated scenarios that arose for me conducting Sister Space (e.g., addressing latecomers to group) and offer my recommendations for facilitating virtual support group work (e.g., working with a co-facilitator). I present some of the ways in which “strength” was instilled in me through past experiences (e.g., my mother’s passing) and the tensions in conceptualizations of strength for Black graduate student women (e.g., finding comfort in being “strong,” even if it means caring for others in spite of oneself). Despite previous literature suggesting that pressures to be strong may inhibit emotional intimacy (i.e., intimacy) among Black women (Davis, 2015), I observe and present the ways in which Black graduate student women establish, demonstrate, and conceptualize intimacy (e.g., having another Black woman who one can “really talk to”) within Sister Space. Throughout this dissertation, I stress the importance of listening to Black women and valuing their ways of knowing, including intuition, and knowledge production.
... First, what is salespeople's benefit-cost trade-off after they form an initial judgment of opportunity magnitude, and how does this affect their sales performance? The focus on initial judgments is based on prior research that underscores the importance of a primacy effect in both decision making and salesperson-customer interactions (Eisenkraft 2013;Hall, Ahearne, and Sujan 2015). Second, how does a salesperson's initial judgments of opportunity conversion uncertainty change the sales performance outcome of the benefit-cost analysis? ...
Contrary to the intuition that salespeople gravitate toward big-whale sales opportunities, in reality they often avoid them. To study this phenomenon, the authors integrate contingent decision-making and conservation-of-resources theories to develop and test a framework of salespeople’s decision making when prospecting. Study 1 reveals that the performance impact of salesperson initial judgment of opportunity magnitude follows an inverted U shape, indicating that salespeople’s avoidance of large opportunities results from rational benefit–cost analyses due to their conservation of resources. Interestingly, salespeople use a calibration decision-making strategy (i.e., calculating expected benefits by accounting for conversion uncertainty) at the portfolio rather than prospect level, in solution- but not product-selling contexts. Ignoring this calibration effect can lead to under- or overestimation of conversion rates of up to 100%. Study 2 shows that salespeople’s past performance success and experience bias this calibration. Simulations reveal that when high performers or inexperienced salespeople believe their portfolio magnitude is large and conversion uncertainty low, they are less concerned about resource conservation and improve their quota attainment by 50%. Study 3 confirms the theoretical mechanism. These findings shed new lights on salespeople’s decision making and suggest ways for sales professionals to improve effectiveness when prospecting.
... While the thin slices procedure has found its way in different domains of psychology, like clinical psychology (Fowler et al., 2009;Oltmanns, Friedman, Fiedler, & Turkheimer, 2004) or organizational psychology (Eisenkraft, 2013;Jung, 2016;Visser & Matthews, 2005), it has only rarely been applied to the educational domain. A few studies have applied the thin slices procedure to aspects of instruction even though the studies differ in respect to their aims, as well as in respect to the constructs investigated (Ambady & Grey, 2002;Ambady & Rosenthal, 1993;Begrich, Fauth, Kunter, & Klieme, 2017;Mainhard, Wubbels, & Brekelmans, 2014;Praetorius et al., 2015;Pretsch, Flunger, Heckman, & Schmitt, 2013;Strong, Gargani, & Hacifazlioglu, 2011). ...
Various approaches of assessing instructional quality have emerged in educational research. In this article, we present two studies that apply the thin slices procedure, investigating the reliability and validity of the ratings of three dimensions of instructional quality based solely on the first impressions of untrained social observers. Thirty undergraduate students rated 30-s clips from English lessons (Study 1) and Math lessons (Study 2) regarding three quality dimensions. The findings suggest high reliability in these ratings. Multilevel confirmatory analyses suggested construct validity in terms of differentiation between the three dimensions of instructional quality. Finally, we found some overlap between the thin slices ratings of classroom management and constructive support with ratings of trained raters based on observations of full lessons, as well as students’ ratings of these dimensions. We discuss these results with respect to the potential of first impressions of untrained observers to measure instructional quality.
... Despite leadership being a widely espoused value in business, leaders are not often equipped with thorough theory to aid their followers due to the scientist-practitioner gap (Briner & Rousseau, 2011). This lack of theory-driven leadership practices can put leaders, followers, and organizations in jeopardy by instead encouraging leaders to make decisions based on intuition, which takes considerable time and experience to develop to legitimate levels of accuracy (Eisenkraft, 2013). ...
This theory integration used Motivated Action Theory to explain how Transactional/Transformational Leadership Theory satisfies individual follower and leader needs.
... The cues or attributes, such as physical appearance, are commonly used by interviewers to make inferences about an interviewee with whom they have no acquaintance (Nestler & Back, 2013). Interviewers also utilize cues to form an initial impression and consider it along with physical appearance to determine their interview ratings (DeGroot & Motowidlo, 1999;Swider, Barrick, & Harris, 2016); however, most initial impressions do not predict job performance (Eisenkraft, 2013). ...
... Third, our conclusion that initial impression ratings reflect some accurate information should be qualified because it is based on the average initial impression ratings of five raters (see Eisenkraft (2013). Thus, it should be acknowledged that an individual initial impression rating also captures rater idiosyncrasies and shows low interrater reliability (for similar findings in the interview, see Barrick et al. (2012)). ...
Insight into assessors’ initial impressions has the potential to advance knowledge on how assessors form dimension-based judgments and on possible biases in these ratings. Therefore, this study draws on dual process theory to build and test a model that integrates assessors’ dimension ratings (i.e., systematic, slow, deliberate processing mode) with their initial impressions (i.e., intuitive, fast, automatic processing mode). Data collection started with an AC where assessors provided ratings of assessees, and an online survey of assessees’ supervisors who rated their job performance. In addition, two other rater pools provided initial impressions of these assessees by evaluating extracted 2-min video clips of their AC performance. Initial impressions from both of these samples were positively related to assessors’ dimension ratings, which supports assumptions from dual process theory and might explain why assessors’ dimensional ratings are often undifferentiated. Initial impressions did not appear to open up the doors for biases and stereotypes based upon appearance and perceptions of liking. Instead, assessors picked up information that assessees transmitted about their personality (i.e., Conscientiousness and Emotional Stability). Implications for further research on initial impressions and AC dimension ratings are discussed.
... This allows us to maintain measurement reliability in a similar way that adding multiple items would. Indeed, Eisenkraft (2013) demonstrated that single-item intuitive judgments result in enhanced reliability and validity when aggregated across multiple raters. ...
This study demonstrates that the initial performance expectations of teams, formed even before members are very familiar with each other or the team’s task, are a key determinant of the team’s ultimate success. Specifically, we argue that such early formed beliefs determine the extent to which teams frame their task as a gain or loss context, which affects their orientation toward risk-taking. Our results suggest a self-fulfilling prophecy effect: Initial team performance expectations lead to the fulfillment of such expectations via risk-taking behavior. We also show that teams are less susceptible to this “risk-taking trap” to the extent that members have low avoidant or high dependent decision-making styles. We tested and found support for our predictions in a study of 540 individuals comprising 108 five-member teams working in a controlled environment. Our study contributes to theory on emergent states and decision biases in teams, and we offer a number of practical implications.
... It also predicts on-the-job decision performance (Meyer, 1970). • Field research in I-O shows that 'thin slices' are very poor predictors of job performance (see Eisenkraft, 2013). Meta-analyses of the unstructured job interview show that it predicts, at best, 4% of the variance in on-the-job performance (Huffcutt & Arthur, 1994). ...
The cross-fertilization of JDM and I-O has increased since the earlier version of this chapter, but there remains considerable opportunity for the areas to contribute to one another. Like the previous chapter, this chapter was written with the objective of presenting an accessible treatment of modern judgment and decision making research, and stimulating ideas for future research and application in the workplace. Special attention is given to topics that have historically been underrepresented in industrial and organizational psychology, including how people make decisions under risk and uncertainty, how preferences are formed, and ways to improve decision outcomes. The chapter also presents a brief discussion of individual differences in decision making, new methods for studying judgments and decision, and present tools for improving real life decision making outcomes.
... The placement and use of AVI as an early screening tool in the employment selection process allows for a brief introduction of prospective employees, in contrast to the duration of full face-to-face interviews. Thin-slice empirical research investigating the accuracy of recruiters' first impressions of applicants via short videos has demonstrated that well-trained recruiters were skillful at assessing applicants' personality profiles (Mast et al., 2011); while other thin-slice studies have shown that individual video raters' first impressions were poor predictors of performance, only increasing in validity when multiple raters' impressions were aggregated (Eisenkraft, 2013), and used in conjunction with structured interview approaches (Miles and Sadler-Smith, 2014). Further research is required to determine the extent to which relatively short AVI (in comparison to full length face-to-face interviews) can accurately be used to assess job candidates' personalities and organizational fit, in addition to the nuanced service orientation required of prospective hospitality employees. ...
Hospitality organizations utilize a variety of selection tools to hire the best candidates. Traditionally, hospitality recruiters have relied on face-to-face interviews for choosing the most qualified candidates to represent the firm. While real-time Internet-based interviewing platforms are increasingly utilized among hospitality organizations, a cutting edge technology-based interviewing phenomenon has emerged: the use of asynchronous video interviews (AVIs). In order to conduct this modality of interviews, employers send text-based questions electronically and the candidate records his or her responses using a webcam via various proprietary software platforms. Following the promise of reduced costs and increased efficiencies, many organizations have adopted this modality of interviews; however, little research has been conducted regarding their effectiveness among both providers and users. Additionally, the appropriateness and alignment of AVI in the hospitality industry for the use of selecting service representatives should be investigated. In light of this, the present research examines the literature on interviewing modalities, predictive validity of selection tools, and electronic Human Resources and presents several propositions as well as an agenda for future research. Furthermore, the present research presents a conceptual model for AVI using the literature on electronic Human Resources as a backdrop.
... However, scientific analyses of intuition have a long tradition since the beginning of the twentieth century (e.g., Jung 1923;Weston 1927). Nowadays, a variety of newly developed and empirically informed approaches on intuition developed in educational science, psychology, or business education (e.g., Asvoll 2012;Eisenkraft 2013;Sadler-Smith 2010;Sinclair 2011Sinclair , 2014. Of course, all these scientific approaches of investigating intuition are situated in different academic and practical contexts. ...
Competence-based vocational and professional education and training aims at changing the perspective from the input into professionals’ preparation for workplaces to the outcome of such preparation. The theoretical implication behind this change focuses on professionals’ competences and, hence, their capability to cope with today’s work demands. This chapter follows the approach of expertise research which reflects the development from novices to experts on a cognitive basis. It discusses the crucial component of professional competence from an expertise point of view: excellent performance, intuition, and their underlying knowledge structures. Within educational research, those qualities of human mind are considered to prepare best for recent and future work demands. However, since excellent performance – as this chapter argues – crucially is based on unconscious mental processes, challenges arise for considering such processes in educational practice.
... They then act immediately rather than gathering further evidence of women's level of interest. Although snap judgments can be accurate, they are more likely to be based on stereotypes or one's own wishes, rather than a careful analysis of the other person's behavior (Eisenkraft, 2013). Thus, these unpremeditated, quick decisions may frequently lead to an overestimation of a woman's sexual interest. ...
Men are more likely than women to misperceive a cross-sex companion's degree of sexual interest. The current study extends previous research by using the confluence model (Malamuth et al., 1991) to examine how narcissism and impulsive sensation-seeking are directly and indirectly associated with men's misperception of women's sexual interest. A community sample of young, single men (N = 470) completed audio computer-assisted self-interviews. Using path analyses, hostile masculinity and impersonal sexual orientation were proximal predictors of men's misperception of women's sexual intent. Additionally, narcissism was indirectly related to men's misperception through hostile masculinity. Impulsive sensation-seeking was directly and indirectly related to men's misperceptions through impersonal sexual orientation. Although there was a bivariate relationship between alcohol consumption and misperception, this relationship was not significant in the path model. Overall, these findings demonstrate the importance of considering how personality traits increase the risk for misperception.
... Scientific accounts are now presenting revised, new and empirically informed accounts of intuitive decision-making's efficacy in an increasingly wide range of applied fields (e.g. Asvoll, 2012;Atkinson & Claxton, 2000;Chudnoff, 2013;Eisenkraft, 2013;Gilovich, Griffin, & Kahneman, 2002;Kinchin, Cabot, & Hay, 2008;Plessner, Betsch, & Betsch, 2008;Sinclair, 2011). Yet, these bodies of literature have their sources in diverse academic disciplines and discourses, including those from educational, managerial and psychological fields of inquiry. ...
Intuition has been long seen as an element of effective human performance in demanding tasks (i.e. expertise). But its form, constitutive elements and development remain subject to diverse explanations. This paper discusses these elements and explores theories and empirical evidence about what constitutes intuitive expertise, and offers an account arising from a review of these explanations. Commencing with a consideration of examples of intuition from distinct fields of working life, it uses a cognitive perspective to open up the discussion for theorizing about intuition from an information processing perspective. It evaluates the widely acknowledged theory of two systems of information processing that proposes two parallel operating systems: the rational and intuitive. This theory provides foundations for understanding experts’ abilities to act intuitively in high-performance-level activities. Research on expertise, finally, opens an educational perspective on intuition, with the progression from novice to expert being understood as an enduring and long-term learning process that inherently generates intuitive capabilities. The paper concludes by returning to and making connections with the literature on workplace and professional learning to provide insights into how individual and social learning processes support the development of intuitive expertise.
Some assert that noise (i.e., unwanted variance) is the most neglected yet most important source of error in judgment. We suggest that this problem was discovered nearly 100 years ago in the area of personnel selection and that a century of selection research has shown that noise can be demonstrably reduced by structuring the process (i.e., decomposing the component parts, agreeing on standards, and applying those standards consistently) and by aggregating judgments independently. Algorithms can aid significantly in this process but are often confused with methods that, in their current form, can substantially increase noise in judgment (e.g., artificial intelligence and machine learning).
Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior, Volume 10 is January 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
We develop and test a holistic model of how team members’ swift judgments about a prospective team member impact their selection decisions and how accurate those judgments are in predicting the prospective member’s performance. Applying the social psychology literature on person perception to the organizational literature on team member selection, we argue that team members’ perceptions of the prospective member’s competence primarily shape their predictions about the prospective member’s task-related performance in the team, whereas perceptions of warmth primarily shape predictions about the prospective member’s interpersonal contextual performance in the team. We further propose that, although team members rely on both performance predictions when choosing a prospective member, predicted task-related performance receives more weight than predicted interpersonal contextual performance, and that the importance of predicted interpersonal contextual performance is elevated when team task interdependence is high. Importantly, we theorize that the predictions about task-related performance show good accuracy, whereas the predictions about interpersonal contextual performance do not, which makes the reliance on the latter erroneous. Across two studies utilizing prospective members’ actual task-related and interpersonal contextual performance (objective and peer-rated), as well as team members’ predictions about such performances, we found support for our predictions. Our research resolves several outstanding puzzles in the literature on person perception, integrates it into organizational research, and offers novel and actionable insights for selecting prospective team members.
Das Interview ist eine altbewährte und effektive Methode der Personalauswahl – gerade im Feld der Management-Diagnostik. Durch den technologischen Fortschritt ergeben sich heute als Alternative zur klassischen Gesprächssituation eine Vielzahl an alternativen Settings von Interviews für die Praxis, wie zum Beispiel Web-basierte Videointerviews. Diese werden mithilfe von mobilen Geräten oder PCs online ausgeführt.
Across four studies, we demonstrate a bias against Black women with natural hairstyles in job recruitment. In Study 1, participants evaluated profiles of Black and White female job applicants across a variety of hairstyles. We found that Black women with natural hairstyles were perceived to be less professional, less competent, and less likely to be recommended for a job interview than Black women with straightened hairstyles and White women with either curly or straight hairstyles. We replicated these findings in a controlled experiment in Study 2. In Study 3A and 3B, we found Black women with natural hairstyles received more negative evaluations when they applied for a job in an industry with strong dress norms. Taken together, this article advances the research on biases in the labor market in the age of social media use and highlights the importance of taking an intersectional approach when studying inequity in the workplace.
Trust is essential in many human relationships, especially where there is an element of inter-dependency. However, humans tend to make quick judgements about trusting other individuals, even those met at zero acquaintance. Past studies have shown the significance of voice in perceived trustworthiness, but research associating trustworthiness and different vocal features such as speech rate and fundamental frequency (f0) has yet to yield consistent results. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to investigate 1) the association between trustworthiness and different vocal features, 2) the vocal characteristics that Malaysian ethnic groups base their judgement of trustworthiness on and 3) building a neural network model that predicts the degree of trustworthiness in a human voice. In the method proposed, a reliable set of audio clips will be obtained and analyzed with SoundGen to determine the acoustical characteristics. Then the audio clips will be distributed to a large group of untrained respondents to rate their degree of trust in the speakers of each audio clip. The participants will be able to choose from 30 sets of audio clips which will consist of 6 audio clips each. The acoustic characteristics will be analyzed and com-pared with the ratings to determine if there are any correlations between the acoustic characteristic and the trustworthiness ratings. After that, a neural network model will be built based on the collected data. The neural network model will be able to predict the trustworthiness of a person’s voice. Keywords—prosody, trust, voice, vocal cues, zero acquaintance.
Asynchronous video interviews (AVI) occur when an employment candidate records responses to pre-selected interview questions and an employer reviews them afterwards. This study examined the influence of the review process, the effect of aesthetics, and hard and soft skills on hiring managers’ reviews of AVIs. The results from 517 observations reveal that the order of the interview (i.e., interview first versus resume first) had an impact on the hiring managers’ decisions. Additionally, candidate aesthetics in the AVI context were found to play a role (though not primarily) in the decision to advance a candidate to the following stage of the screening process. However, communications and problem-solving skills remained the predominant predictors of advancing a candidate regardless of aesthetics or the procedural order of the review. Contributing to an emerging body of research on AVIs, this study offers suggestions for future inquiry and recommendations for managerial practice.
This paper examines the relation between cognitive perceptions of management and firm valuation. We develop a composite measure of investor perception using 30-second content-filtered video clips of initial public offering (IPO) roadshow presentations. We show that this measure, designed to capture viewers’ overall perceptions of a CEO, is positively associated with pricing at all stages of the IPO (proposed price, offer price and end of first day of trading). The result is robust to controls for traditional determinants of firm value. We also show that firms with highly perceived management are more likely to be matched to high-quality underwriters. In further exploratory analyses, we find the impact is greater for firms with more uncertain language in their written S-1. Taken together, our results provide evidence that investors’ instinctive perceptions of management are incorporated into their assessments of firm value. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
This meta-analytic review presents the findings of a project investigating the validity of the employment interview. Analyses are based on 245 coefficients derived from 86,311 individuals. Results show that interview validity depends on the content of the interview (situational, job related, or psychological), how the interview is conducted (structured vs. unstructured; board vs. individual), and the nature of the criterion (job performance, training performance, and tenure; research or administrative ratings). Situational interviews had higher validity than did job-related interviews, which, in turn, had higher validity than did psychologically based interviews. Structured interviews were found to have higher validity than unstructured interviews. Interviews showed similar validity for job performance and training performance criteria, but validity for the tenure criteria was lower.
Modern societies rely heavily on groups to make important economic and political decisions. However, a review of research on group processes shows that progress has been slow in the delineation of the conditions that promote or impede efficient, accurate group judgments. One reason for the slow progress is that research methods and data analysis in this area are varied, difficult to compare, and often substandard. In this review, the authors summarize alternate methods of analysis and provide detailed illustrations of the best methods for assessing and analyzing group judgment accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Researchers are often interested in comparing correlations between variables at different levels of analysis (e.g., individual and organizational) to determine if the same relationship holds across the levels. A special situation emerges when correlations at higher levels are based on aggregated data. This article contains an analysis of the nature of the relationship between correlations based on individual-level data and correlations based on aggregated data from individuals. In particular, the conditions under which differences between individual correlations and correlations based on aggregates represent statistical artifacts or meaningful differences are explored. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Presents the findings of a project investigating the validity of the employment interview. Analyses are based on 245 coefficients derived from 86,311 individuals. Results show that interview validity depends on the content of the interview (situational, job related, or psychological), how the interview is conducted (structured vs unstructured; board vs individual), and the nature of the criterion (job performance, training performance, and tenure; research or administrative ratings). Situational interviews had higher validity than did job-related interviews, which, in turn, had higher validity than did psychologically based interviews. Structured interviews were found to have higher validity than unstructured interviews. Interviews showed similar validity for job performance and training performance criteria, but validity for the tenure criteria was lower. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
The accuracy of strangers' consensual judgments of personality based on "thin slices" of targets' nonverbal behavior were examined in relation to an ecologically valid criterion variable. In the 1st study, consensual judgments of college teachers' molar nonverbal behavior based on very brief (under 30 sec) silent video clips significantly predicted global end-of-semester student evaluations of teachers. In the 2nd study, similar judgments predicted a principal's ratings of high school teachers. In the 3rd study, ratings of even thinner slices (6 and 15 sec clips) were strongly related to the criterion variables. Ratings of specific micrononverbal behaviors and ratings of teachers' physical attractiveness were not as strongly related to the criterion variable. These findings have important implications for the areas of personality judgment, impression formation, and nonverbal behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Provides a reanalysis of the employment interview for entry-level jobs that overcomes several limitations of J. E. Hunter and R. F. Hunter's (see record
1984-30168-001) article. Using a relatively sophisticated multidimensional framework for classifying level of structure, the authors obtained results from a meta-analysis of 114 entry-level interview validity coefficients suggesting that (1) structure is a major moderator of interview validity; (2) interviews, particularly when structured, can reach levels of validity that are comparable to those of mental ability tests; and (3) although validity does increase through much of the range of structure, there is a point at which additional structure yields essentially no incremental validity. Thus, results suggested a ceiling effect for structure. Limitations and directions for future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
A meta-analysis was conducted on the accuracy of predictions of various objective outcomes in the areas of clinical and social psychology from short observations of expressive behavior (under 5 min). The overall effect size for the accuracy of predictions for 38 different results was .39. Studies using longer periods of behavioral observation did not yield greater predictive accuracy; predictions based on observations under 0.5 min in length did not differ significantly from predictions based on 4- and 5-min observations. The type of behavioral channel (such as the face, speech, the body, tone of voice) on which the ratings were based was not related to the accuracy of predictions. Accuracy did not vary significantly between behaviors manipulated in a laboratory and more naturally occurring behavior. Last, effect sizes did not differ significantly for predictions in the areas of clinical psychology, social psychology, and the accuracy of detecting deception. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
The focus of this article is on implicit beliefs that inhibit adoption of selection decision aids (e.g., paper-and-pencil tests, structured interviews, mechanical combination of predictors). Understanding these beliefs is just as important as understanding organizational constraints to the adoption of selection technologies and may be more useful for informing the design of successful interventions. One of these is the implicit belief that it is theoretically possible to achieve near-perfect precision in predicting performance on the job. That is, people have an inherent resistance to analytical approaches to selection because they fail to view selection as probabilistic and subject to error. Another is the implicit belief that prediction of human behavior is improved through experience. This myth of expertise results in an overreliance on intuition and a reluctance to undermine one’s own credibility by using a selection decision aid.
After decades of research highlighting the fallibility of first impressions, recent years have featured reports of valid impressions based on surprisingly limited information, such as photos and short videos.Yet beneath mean levels of accuracy lies tremendous variance-some snap judgments are well-founded, others wrongheaded. An essential question for perceivers, therefore, is whether and when to trust their initial intuitions about others. In three studies of first impressions based on photos and videos, the authors examined accuracy for Big Five trait judgments as well as corresponding reports of confidence. Overall, perceivers showed a limited ability to intuit which of their impressions were more accurate than others, although a curvilinear effect emerged: In the relatively few cases where perceivers reported an absolute lack of confidence, their accuracy was indeed comparatively low. Across the studies, judgment confidence was shaped by sources at the judgment level and the judge level that were unrelated to accuracy.
This research focused on the target effect on a perceiver's judgments of personality when the perceiver and the target are unacquainted. The perceiver was given no opportunity to interact with the target, a condition we refer to as zero acquaintance. We reasoned that in order to make personality judgments, perceivers would use the information available to them (physical appearance). Consensus in personality judgments would result, then, from shared stereotypes about particular physical appearance characteristics. Results from three separate studies with 259 subjects supported this hypothesis. On two of the five dimensions (extraversion and conscientiousness) on which subjects rated each other, a significant proportion of variance was due to the stimulus target. Consensus on judgments of extraversion appears to have been largely mediated by judgments of physical attractiveness. Across the three studies there was also evidence that the consensus in judgments on these two dimensions had some validity, in that they correlated with self-judgments on those two dimensions.
Theory and research on small group performance and decision making is reviewed. Recent trends in group performance research have found that process gains as well as losses are possible, and both are frequently explained by situational and procedural contexts that differentially affect motivation and resource coordination. Research has continued on classic topics (e.g., brainstorming, group goal setting, stress, and group performance) and relatively new areas (e.g., collective induction). Group decision making research has focused on preference combination for continuous response distributions and group information processing. New approaches (e.g., group-level signal detection) and traditional topics (e.g., groupthink) are discussed. New directions, such as nonlinear dynamic systems, evolutionary adaptation, and technological advances, should keep small group research vigorous well into the future.
A successful sale depends on a customer's perception of the salesperson's personality, motivations, trustworthiness, and affect. Person perception research has shown that consistent and accurate assessments of these traits can be made based on very brief observations, or “thin slices.” Thus, examining impressions based on thin slices offers an effective approach to study how perceptions of salespeople translate into real-world results, such as sales performance and customer satisfaction. The literature on the accuracy of thin-slice judgments is briefly reviewed. Then, 2 studies are presented that investigated the predictive validity of judgments of salespeople based on thin slices of the vocal channel. Participants rated 20-sec audio clips extracted from interviews with a sample of sales managers, on variables gauging interpersonal skills, task-related skills, and anxiety. Results supported the hypothesis that observability of the rated variable is a key determinant in the criterion validity of thin-slice judgments. Implications for the use of thin-slice judgments in salesperson selection and customer satisfaction are discussed.
Although questions about how people respond to others' nonverbal cues have always been central to the study of nonverbal communication, the study of individual diVerences in accuracy of nonverbal cue processing, or interpersonal sensitivity, is a more recent endeavor. This chapter focuses on assessment of individual diVerences, emphasizing the major paradigms and instruments for assessing accuracy of nonverbal cue processing, and discussing characteristics of the stimuli and judgment methodologies (e.g. what state or trait is being judged, who is being judged, what cue channels are available, whether the cues are posed or spontaneous, whether judgment is done in live interaction or from standard stimuli, what judgment format is used, what criteria and methods are used for scoring). Relative advantages of diVerent approaches are discussed in terms of psychometric qualities, validity, and utility.
The study of personality inferences from facial appearance has a long history in psychology. This article demonstrates several lines of research on personality impressions from faces. It reviews research on the accuracy of these impressions and the social consequences of these impressions. It shows that people can make a variety of trait inferences after extremely brief exposures to emotionally neutral faces, suggesting that such inferences are made automatically. The automaticity of forming these impressions and recent patient and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies exploring the neural basis of these impressions are discussed. The article describes dimensional approaches to personality impressions from faces and potential sources of individual differences in evaluation of faces. It reviews evidence from data-driven methods and inferences along these dimensions are based on similarity to expressions signaling approach/avoidance behaviors and features signaling physical strength.
Three studies demonstrate the warm glow heuristic (Monin, 2003) without relying on aggregated ratings, and illustrate the important distinction between correlating average ratings versus averaging individual correlations. In Study 1, we re-analyze previous data correlating individual ratings with aggregates from another small sample of raters. In Study 2, we correlate individual familiarity ratings with normed attractiveness from a large sample of raters (n > 2, 500). Study 3 bypasses the issue of aggregates altogether by having participants provide both attractiveness and familiarity ratings and computing correlations within participants. Despite this more conservative approach, the results of all three studies support the existence of the beautiful-is-familiar phenomenon.
How do we make sense of other people and of ourselves? What do we know about the people we encounter in our daily lives and about the situations in which we encounter them, and how do we use this knowledge in our attempt to understand, predict, or recall their behavior? Are our social judgments fully determined by our social knowledge, or are they also influenced by our feelings and desires? Social cognition researchers look at how we make sense of other people and of ourselves. In this book Ziva Kunda provides a comprehensive and accessible survey of research and theory about social cognition at a level appropriate for undergraduate and graduate students, as well as researchers in the field. The first part of the book reviews basic processes in social cognition, including the representation of social concepts, rules of inference, memory, "hot" cognition driven by motivation or affect, and automatic processing. The second part reviews three basic topics in social cognition: group stereotypes, knowledge of other individuals, and the self. A final chapter revisits many of these issues from a cross-cultural perspective.
A Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted to assess the extent that a correlation estimate can be inflated when an average-based measure is used in a commonly employed correlational design. The results from the simulation reveal that the inflation of the correlation estimate can be substantial, up to 76%. Additionally, data was re-analyzed from two previously published studies to determine the extent that the correlation estimate was inflated due to the use of an averaged based measure. The re-analyses reveal that correlation estimates had been inflated by just over 50% in both studies. Although these findings are disconcerting, we are somewhat comforted by the fact that there is a simple and easy analysis that can be employed to prevent the inflation of the correlation estimate that we have simulated and observed.
Two hundred students were used for the present experiment. Each one was required to arrange a series of ten weights in the order of heaviest to lightest. The object was to discover whether or not group judgment is more nearly correct than individual judgment. First the arrangement by each student was correlated with the true order and the mean of these correlations calculated. Next the two hundred orders were treated in groups of five, the average position of each weight calculated, and the resulting order correlated as before, giving forty correlations instead of two hundred. The mean correlation here was .68. For groups of ten each it was .79; for groups of twenty it was .86; and for groups of fifty it was .94. "In other words, the results of the group are distinctly superior to the results of the average member and equal to its best members. From Psych Bulletin 22:12:00831. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
This study examined how tone of voice related to directory assistance operators' s]peed at handling customer calls. Brief (5-s) audio exerpts of telephone operator conversation were presented to judges who rated these on 5 personality dimensions and 5 vocal qualities. When these measures were correlated with a key measure of job performance, namely call duration, results showed that operators who were faster at handling calls were rated as significantly more enthusiastic, sympathetic, confident, professional, and friendly (average r= -.56). The voices of faster operators were also rated as significantly more changing (vs. monotonous) and as containing clearer (vs. slurred) pronunciation. Results are discussed in terms of the role that tone of voice plays in telephone operator-customer interaction, and telephone interactions more generally.
Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) is a relatively new website that contains the major elements required to conduct research: an integrated participant compensation system; a large participant pool; and a streamlined process of study design, participant recruitment, and data collection. In this article, we describe and evaluate the potential contributions of MTurk to psychology and other social sciences. Findings indicate that (a) MTurk participants are slightly more demographically diverse than are standard Internet samples and are significantly more diverse than typical American college samples; (b) participation is affected by compensation rate and task length, but participants can still be recruited rapidly and inexpensively; (c) realistic compensation rates do not affect data quality; and (d) the data obtained are at least as reliable as those obtained via traditional methods. Overall, MTurk can be used to obtain high-quality data inexpensively and rapidly.
© The Author(s) 2011.
We often form opinions about the characteristics of others from single, static samples of their appearance – the very first thing we see when, or even before, we meet them. These inferences occur spontaneously, rapidly, and can impact decisions in a variety of important domains. A crucial question, then, is whether appearance-based inferences are accurate. Using a naturalistic data set of more than 1 million appearance-based judgments obtained from a popular website (Study 1) and data from an online experiment involving over a thousand participants (Study 2), we evaluate the ability of human judges to infer the characteristics of others from their appearances. We find that judges are generally less accurate at predicting characteristics than they would be if they ignored appearance cues and instead only relied on their knowledge of characteristic base-rate frequencies. The findings suggest that appearances are overweighed in judgments and can have detrimental effects on accuracy. We conclude that future research should (i) identify the specific visual cues that people use when they draw inferences from appearances, (ii) determine which of these cues promote or hinder accurate social judgments, and (iii) examine how inference goals and contexts moderate the use and diagnostic validity of these cues.