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Exploring business visions using creative fictional prototypes
Abstract
This special issue (SI) explores the use of creative fictional prototyping to motivate and direct research into new high-tech products, environments and lifestyles. Fictional prototyping combines storytelling with science fact to explore a wide variety of possible futures. We define what a prototype is, then outline the design challenges. Commentaries are presented on each fictional prototype. Finally we highlight the significance of this SI by making reference to similar studies published in Futures.
Supplementary resource (1)
Data
March 2014
... An example of such a fiction is the Harry Potter fantasy, which is used by one of our case studies. These ideas have some resonances with the socio-cultural prototypes proposed by Schwarz and Liebl (2013) who made the case that science-fiction prototyping could benefit from being extended by complementing it with socio-cultural fiction. In particular they pointed out that popular socio-fiction plays an important role in the construction of our reality and, for example, that it could greatly stimulate the desire for the technologies. ...
... Our study will largely focus on illustrating how pre-existing science fiction or fantasy can drive business innovation. P. Zheng, V. Callaghan Futures 95 (2018) 98-117 Socio-cultural fictions such as movies, that are not explicitly written for new product or business innovation, contain significant aspects of human culture, lifestyles and aspirations embedded into them (Schwarz & Liebl, 2013;Schwarz, 2015). These embedded cultural artefacts also encompass corporate and market facets, as business and lifestyles are inseparably intertwined. ...
... Thus, we argue, by associating business to socio-cultural fictions, organisations can connect to their markets in a new dimension. Schwarz and Liebl (2013) also describe how prototypes derived from popular socio-cultural fictions, through the processes of diffusion and normalization, will become part of the customer's world, thereby making the markets more receptive to those products. Creativity and innovation can sometimes be an elusive qualities being dependent not just on skills or knowledge, but also on the potential for an inventor to imagine a new kind of service or product. ...
Use of established fiction provides a connection to society at large, tapping into the creative abilities of great authors and filmmakers, which can offer a valuable source of creative ideas. This paper explores how science fiction and fantasy, particularly in the form of films, is being used to stimulate creativity and produce innovation outputs in non-science SMEs in China. We argue that fiction has the potential to inspire innovation through a constructive organisational process, we provide a simple metric, the '. Diegetic Gap', as a means for illustrating this. In particular, we present four empirical case studies that explore the application of science fiction and fantasy to product and process innovation, utilising a concept we call a Diegetic Innovation Template to merge fictional narrative and tangible innovation output.
... Music festivals are the focus of this conceptual article, which asks how technology stimulates change in experience needs and how, through scenario planning or forms of future visioning (Birtchnell & Urry, 2013;van der Helm, 2009), festival management may be able to precipitate or drive experience needs, that is, a process by which technological advancements (science fact) allows observation of the way in which nonwork (play) activity is changing, trend analysis (consumer fact) allows observation of the way in which the future can be said to be manifest now, and science fiction (fictional representation) allows for a paradigmatic explanation of how such things could occur. These processes may then be used to form prototypes (approximations) for the future (Bell, Fletcher, Greenhill, Griffiths, & McLean, 2013;Graham, Callaghan, & Greenhill, 2013). ...
... The way in which technology is changing consumption is considered and also music festival form and the society of which it is a part. The fictional proto- typing process introduced by Johnson (2011) and applied by Graham et al. (2013) to the traditional product development process informs this study. In essence, this process asks: what is the technol- ogy, how can the technology be used, who is the customer, what is the experience that is required, and how will their experience be enabled? ...
... Indeed, they contextualize technologies within the social sphere and explore their implications (Kirby, 2010;Southern et al., 2014). Hence, when representing or explaining a science fiction approach, explanation is validated and purposeful, inspiring prototyping and also instructive to business management ( Bell et al., 2013;Birtchnell & Urry, 2013;Graham et al., filtering (reducing); explaining (rationalizing); and realizing (building) (Saco & Goncalves, 2008). It is a collaborative and cocreative activity (Blomkvist & Holmlid, 2010;Simo, Satu, Essi, & Antti, 2012) and is well suited to the design of events and festi- vals (Miettinen, Valtonen, & Markuksela, 2015). ...
Many music festivals fail because the experiences offered do not ensure relevance and meaning to theattendee. Engagement with new and virtual landscapes and with the enhanced sensory feelings and imaginations that technologies can offer may alleviate this. Utilizing a futures frame, this conceptual
article contributes to the pursuit of successful future event design by applying a normative visionary
methodology—employing trend analysis, scenarios, and science fiction to create prototypes that may
assist in the formation of appropriate experience options and opportunities for music festivals of the
future. It is proposed that this technique may aid positive social outcomes.
Key
... Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) is a possible solution to declining interest in STEM fields and pursuit of STEM careers. [3], [4]. SFP is presented as a learning activity where facts and imaginations are combined to create a story of how an innovation used in a future setting would affect the people of that time socially and economically [3], [4]. ...
... [3], [4]. SFP is presented as a learning activity where facts and imaginations are combined to create a story of how an innovation used in a future setting would affect the people of that time socially and economically [3], [4]. The student is encouraged to imagine how the people would interact with the new technology, what problems would the technology solve, and what new problems could it solve [3], [4]. ...
... SFP is presented as a learning activity where facts and imaginations are combined to create a story of how an innovation used in a future setting would affect the people of that time socially and economically [3], [4]. The student is encouraged to imagine how the people would interact with the new technology, what problems would the technology solve, and what new problems could it solve [3], [4]. ...
... Cette publication de référence dans le domaine de la prospective anticipait d'un an une autre revue d'histoire de la gestion, Entreprises et Histoire, qui en 2017, consacrait un numéro aux relations entre l'entreprise et la science-fiction. Déjà, en 2013, la revue Futurespubliait un numéro sur les apports des prototypes fictionnels à la construction des visions d'entreprises (Graham et al., 2013). Bell et al. ...
... Un exemple est celui d'Airbus qui a développé des concepts de cabines d'avion transparentes permettant une vue panoramique 2 ainsi que des stations spatiales 3 intégrant des concepts issus de la science-fiction. Cette approche démontre que la sciencefiction ne se limite pas à la fiction, mais devient un outil pour orienter les stratégies de recherche et développement (Graham et al., 2013). Ainsi, la science-fiction se présente non seulement comme une source d'inspiration, mais également comme un terrain d'expérimentation permettant d'élargir les horizons de l'innovation. ...
La science-fiction est un imaginaire jouant un rôle crucial dans les processus économiques. Le management de l’innovation peut l’utiliser dans ses travaux de prototypage et de prospective. Les méthodes du design fiction et du science fiction prototyping l’utilisent ainsi pour stimuler la créativité des membres des organisations. La science-fiction apparait donc à la fois comme un imaginaire critique de la technostructure, mais aussi, de plus en plus souvent comme un système de représentations du futur utile au capitalisme pour stimuler l’innovation technoscientifique. Les organisations ont donc intérêt à s’appuyer sur la science-fiction pour imaginer leur avenir. Les textes regroupés dans ce numéro traitent à la fois de la manière dont les organisations utilisent la science-fiction pour innover et faire de la prospective, mais aussi des représentations des organisations dans certaines œuvres.
... Schwarz (2015;510) even suggests that organizations should use literature in foresight as it delivers thick descriptions which "play a role in the construction of social reality and therefore can influence, over time, reality, or rather translate fiction into fact." Other recent studies develop science fiction prototypes, i.e. "short works of fiction, grounded in scientific fact and crafted for starting a conversation about the implications, effects, or ramifications of technology and the future" (Burnam-Fink, 2015; 49; see also Johnson, 2011;Graham, Greenhill, and Callaghan, 2013;Schwarz and Liebl, 2013). These narratives based on science and technology are assumed to "allow for a focused, tailored and creative way to think about possible futures around a particular issue" (Merrie, 2018;23), for example what would happen if science or technology fail, in a given scenario. ...
... (Burnam-Fink, 2015; 52) Extant studies however rely only on the knowledge of expert groups: Authors of fiction novels in the case of Clark (1991), Schwarz (2015) and Bina et al. (2017); and in the case of science fiction prototypes developers who are required to be "both a scientific or technological expert and also to be able to write compelling fictional stories." (Graham, Greenhill, and Callaghan, 2013;1). In our case, we were looking at the mobility-related customer needs of the future working population, of which such experts will certainly be part of -but only part. ...
User-driven or user-centric innovation has become a key concept in innovation management. However, recent tools and instruments that companies use focus on gathering near-future customer expectations and needs. Far-future customer needs however usually remain obscure as they are difficult to identify, survey, and validate. Customers have difficulties in expressing their long-term future needs because these are not part of their explicit knowledge. This research is premised on the idea that customer visions about the far-future and the related needs are rooted in self-transcending knowledge, a specific type of tacit knowledge. It presents the methodological approach of using flash fiction stories, i.e. very short fictional stories of 150-300 words gathered in creative writing workshops as a means for gaining access to far-future customer needs. It also reports findings of a study that tested the flash fiction approach in the Swiss mobility sector.
... More recently the usage of literature, especially science fiction literature, has been discussed in a special issue in Futures (Graham et al., 2013) to develop prototypes and foresight by envisioning the future, referred to as Science Fiction (SF) prototypes. According to Johnson (2011: v): ...
... 8 Johnson (2011) elaborates that SF prototypes are narratives which are based on scientific fact and that the purpose of using SF prototypes is to explore the implications and/or effects of that science. Graham et al. (2013) refer, in the same context, to creative fictional prototypes where storytelling imagery based on science fact is used as a design tool to explore future consequences of innovations, for instance in regard to how people will interact with technology. Schwarz and Liebl (2013) have argued that SF prototypes taken from cultural products are not only valuable in terms of stimulating creativity in an organization, they are also valuable because of their potential for becoming part of the reality constructed by consumers through the processes of diffusion and normalization (Liebl & Schwarz, 2010), and thus eventually being embedded into their worlds. ...
Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to address a central question in foresight exercises: how to communicate derived results?
Design/methodology/approach
– By drawing on an empirical study, this paper presents a framework for using visualizations in foresight and illustrates its application by referring to a case study.
Findings
– The argument is made that by using a dimensional framework, the effects of visualization can be leveraged for communicating foresight results and creating stronger buy-in.
Originality/value
– Although visualizations appear to be a central means of communication and engagement, little is known in the context of foresight on the functions and dimension of visualizations.
... The use of institutional theory in informal entrepreneurship reveals a complicated and changing link between social structures and entrepreneurial behavior [21], especially considering the complex and dynamic nature of Nigeria's informal sector. When applied to the Nigerian context, institutional theory, which traditionally explains the influence of formal rules and norms on behavior [22][23][24], reveals a more intricate understanding of how informal entrepreneurs skillfully navigate regulatory voids, socio-cultural expectations, and economic instability. The business environment in Nigeria, especially in large cities like Lagos, Aba, and Onitsha, is characterized by a weak formal institutional structure [25][26][27][28]. ...
In today’s evolving society, meaningful development cannot be fully realized without acknowledging the vital role of the electronics sector, especially as it functions within informal markets. These markets have become more than just centers of commerce; they serve as informal learning grounds where many young people acquire entrepreneurial skills, develop resilience, and find alternatives to social vices. For many, informal entrepreneurship is not just an option but a means of survival and self-empowerment. Despite their growing relevance, the link between the entrepreneurial abilities nurtured in these informal markets and actual business performance has not been adequately examined. This study, therefore, aimed to explore how informal electronics entrepreneurs in a developing economy navigate their environment, overcome challenges, and create wealth through vision, innovation, and calculated risk-taking. Anchored in institutional theory, the research employed a qualitative approach, using cluster, purposive, and simple random sampling to select participants from key informal business units. Interviews were conducted, transcribed, and analyzed using QSR NVivo 12, allowing for deep insight into the lived experiences of the entrepreneurs. Findings revealed that 78% of participants emphasized practical suggestions that aid informal business survival, such as customer-driven innovations, adaptive strategies, and avoiding confrontations with regulatory agencies. Key attributes such as foresight, adaptability, and risk management accounted for 66% of the variance in corporate success. Strategic and innovative approaches are enabling informal firms to endure and prosper, since 61% of respondents associated these competencies with organizational success. The new BSP framework, which integrates institutional and contingency theories, illustrates how informal enterprises endure by conforming to or opposing institutional pressures and adjusting to environmental changes. The results indicate that, when properly understood and supported, the informal electronics sector may develop sustainably. This study demonstrates that informal entrepreneurship is influenced by formal regulations, informal norms, and local enforcement mechanisms, therefore enhancing institutional theory and elucidating business behavior in developing nations. The Business Survival Paradigm [BSP] illustrates how informal enterprises navigate institutional obstacles to endure. It advocates for policies that integrate the official and informal sectors while fostering sustainable development. The paper advocates for ongoing market research to assist informal firms in remaining up-to-date. It implores authorities to acknowledge the innovative potential of the informal sector and to provide supportive frameworks for sustainable growth and formal transition where feasible.
... It has been described how film makers together with science consultants have created cinematic representations of technological possibilities not only with the effect of stimulating the desire for these technologies among the audience but also with an eye towards generating funding opportunities (Kirby 2010). Moreover, science fiction narratives can be used as science fiction prototypes (Graham, Greenhill, and Callaghan 2013;Johnson 2011;Schwarz, Kroehl, and von der Gracht 2014;Schwarz and Liebl 2013) with the aim of supporting the ideation phase with respect to developing innovative products and services. ...
It has been argued that cultural products (e.g., novels or movies) can be used to develop foresight or prototypes. The rationale is that cultural products not only reflect changes in the business environment but also contribute to these changes by diffusion. Therefore, cultural products are arguably valuable. However, compared to other design thinking tools such as ethnographic research, interviews or focus groups, cultural products are less prevalent. This article, which is based on an empirical study of 302 design thinkers from 2018, explores the extent to which cultural products are used in design thinking projects. Despite a lower prevalence than other design thinking tools, we find support that cultural products are positively related to the success of design thinking projects. We conclude that although cultural products are used less than other approaches, they have a significant impact. We therefore emphasize the future potential of using cultural products in design thinking.
... There is a rich body of discourses of fictions (e.g. useful fictions, fictionalism, multiverses) [43][44][45]. Rather than purely access and exploration, here they also serve as a tool for imagination, of how worlds would re-arrange (or would not) around new tools, technologies or the practices they enable. ...
... Allerdings lassen sich auch Hinweise darauf finden, wie etwa Science-Fiction-Romane oder -Filme, im Sinne eines Rapid-Prototyping, genutzt worden sind, um direkt Prototypen auf der Basis dieser Kulturprodukte zu entwickeln. Ein Ansatz, der als Science-Fiction-Prototyping (Graham et al., 2013(Graham et al., , 2014Johnson, 2011;Schwarz & Liebl, 2013) bezeichnet worden ist. Dieser Ansatz scheint insbesondere dann interessant zu sein, wenn es darum geht, zukunftsorientierte Fragestellungen zu adressieren. ...
... SFP can be used in different application domains such as education, innovation, or research. Examples can be found in [6,14,19]. ...
Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) is a powerful tool to imagine, explore, and exploit future technologies, science, and environments and it can be a valuable asset for education, multimedia, and research. This article explores SFP in interactive, flexible, immersive, and collaborative settings, which introduced as Interactive Science Fiction Prototyping (ISFP) and allows new forms of experiencing and reflecting on prototypes. We investigate how to integrate the ISFP process into an existing collaborative virtual world platform and outline required integration steps. Furthermore, we discuss different application scenarios for ISFP in educational, artistic, and business domains and conclude with future ideas and challenges to explore modern scientific ideas.
... SFP simply uses such stories in the context of a development process (Schwars & Liebl, 2013). Compared to traditional SF stories, which are most of the time developed to entertain or instruct a reader, a story built in a SFP process should be seen more as means to express new ideas (Graham, Greenhill & Callaghan, 2013). ...
... With such a sound process of science fiction prototyping practitioners would be able to leverage the full benefit of this approach. Moreover, SF prototyping should be considered an important tool in futures studies [96] and thus, further research regarding the link between SF prototyping and other tools of corporate foresight and futures studies is necessary. Especially the role of SF prototyping in the scenario planning process should be further investigated to achieve a clearer picture of similarities and differences and how the two approaches can cross-fertilize each other. ...
... With such a sound process of science fiction prototyping practitioners would be able to leverage the full benefit of this approach. Moreover, SF prototyping should be considered an important tool in futures studies [96] and thus, further research regarding the link between SF prototyping and other tools of corporate foresight and futures studies is necessary. Especially the role of SF prototyping in the scenario planning process should be further investigated to achieve a clearer picture of similarities and differences and how the two approaches can cross-fertilize each other. ...
... The film scholar David Kirby described these diegetic artefacts as a means of illustrating [5] how films can serve to introduce society to a technological change and opportunity. Later Schwarz showed such socio-cultural fictions had social currency that supported company sales since the ideas were often well established in a firms market [6]. Zheng adopted these concepts to create what she labelled Diegetic Innovation Template (DiT), which can be regarded as a type of stencil or outline for an innovation that is derived deliberately as part of a product development strategy from a fictional narrative or film [4]. ...
This article explores the potential use of Science Fiction Prototypes (SFPs) as a vehicle to promote creative thinking and innovation in the business and technology development process. In particular, the paper describes a tool, “The Imagination Workshop”, which business people can use to drive near and far term product innovation, futuristic business and entrepreneurship. A key contribution of this article is the use of a modified evolutionary model of the Science Fiction Prototyping creation process (cyclic SFP), which, instead of being linear process (as in earlier approaches), is based around a set of feedback loops in the form of an iterative evolutionary co-creative process. In addition, the paper describes how the SFP methodology has been applied to business innovation and entrepreneurship in two small UK companies. Finally, it reflects on the strengths and weaknesses of these methods from a business perspective.
Communicating future developments such as societal or economic trends and their effects on organizations has gained importance for organizations in recent years. However, it is not easy to communicate future developments as the future is uncertain and ambiguous. This paper takes a closer look at strategic communication and strategic foresight and analyzes how future strategy paths of organizations can be systematically communicated. Specifically, it looks at communicative elements known in strategic communication such as vision or mission. In combination with communicative elements from foresight such as scenarios, future narratives or images a framework for systematic future-oriented communication of organizations is developed. The paper differentiates between meta communication – that is communicating why an organization is future-oriented at all – and topical communication – that is communicating specific strategic paths on future opportunities and challenges. A first empirical analysis is undertaken that illustrates the usefulness of the framework looking at three project examples from a European Union foresight data base. The framework provides a powerful toolset for a competitive future-oriented communication in complex and dynamic environments. It shows how strategic foresight and strategic communication benefit from each other.
This conceptual paper is inspired by a critical and counterfactual application of science fiction. Although both science fiction and counterfactuals in futures studies are not uncommon, this paper sets out a theoretical position for a critical perspective on their use. A critical counterfactuals method is proposed, in which a device of fictional news headlines provides a set of counterfactual vignettes-small scenes from the future-used to explore the emergence of an extant concept of entrepreneurship. In order to assign relative truth values to science fiction vignettes, a truth-table is used to examine coherence between the counterfactuals and a range of projected future moments, based on three dimensions of an uncertain future history. This approach is argued as overcoming several limitations of fictional scenarios/vignettes in counterfactual analysis, including the indeterminacy intuition: the accepted wisdom that impossible or wholly implausible scenarios are unfeasible. In reporting on an initial study, the paper draws conjectures about a future entrepreneurship, highlighting the method's potential in delivering new insights into how future education and support policies might better develop entrepreneurship for a sustainable economy.
Futures research is a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that uses a variety of methods to explore possible, plausible, and preferable futures. The goal is to develop foresight—insight into how and why the future could be different than today—to improve policy, planning, and decision making. Scores of futures research methods have been developed or adapted from other disciplines, beginning with pioneering work in the US military and RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s. But many social scientists and natural resource professionals are unaware of these methods and most have never heard of futures research as a distinct field of study. This paper presents a framework for categorizing futures research methods, reviews selected methods, and provides examples of their application to natural resource and environmental issues.
The fictional prototype uses imaginative narratives based explicitly on science fact as a design tool in the development of technology. Through traditional research and development we begin to define and understand what a technology is. This is the typical work that is going on in industrial labs and universities all over the world. Usually this work continues iterating itself until the technology is refined to such a point that can be productized and incorporated into an existing product. Fictional prototyping adds a step in the technology development process. It asks how the technology will be used. It provides a virtual reality in which the implications, problems and benefits of the technology can be explored. Its purpose is to facilitate the development of firm level “meta narratives” on future innovation and its social and humanitarian impact. http://www.fccrnet.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SFP-Framework-Impact-paper-1V3.pdf
The paper sets out to use Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) as a tool to explore how networked electronic products might evolve in the future digital economy. It highlights a number of trends already evident in the commercial environment (the increasing speed of new product launches and associated decision making, the growth of data available to decision makers, the ability to imbue devices with limited sensing and decision making faculties) and sets this against enduring issues around the limits and efficacy of human decision making. This is used as the basis for a vignette in which products increasingly carry the burden of decision making in terms of their form, function and interaction with consumers, a responsibility which has unexpected outcomes. It highlights the difficulties associated with forecasting discontinuities for practitioners, the value of SFP as a tool to address these challenges and the prospects for the widespread adoption of SFP as a forecasting methodology.
Our era is one of increasingly pervasive digital technologies, which penetrate deeply into the very core of the products, services, and operations of many organizations and radically change the nature of product and service innovations. The fundamental properties of digital technology are reprogrammability and data homogenization. Together, they provide an environment of open and flexible affordances that are used in creating innovations characterized by convergence and generativity. An analysis of convergence and generativity observed in innovations with pervasive digital technologies reveals three traits: (1) the importance of digital technology platforms, (2) the emergence of distributed innovations, and (3) the prevalence of combinatorial innovation. Each of the six articles in this special issue relates to one or more of these three traits. In this essay, we explore the organizational research implications of these three digital innovation traits and identify research opportunities for organization science scholars. Examples from the articles in this special issue on organizing for innovation in the digitized world are used to demonstrate the kind of organizational scholarship that can faithfully reflect and inform innovation in a world of pervasive digital technologies.
Classifications of futures research are usually based on epistemological differences, but we complete these with ontological considerations. The article presents a typology of forecasts, i.e. statements on future events or states. It has two dimensions, truth claim and explanatory claim; each dimension has two values, making the claim or not making the claim. The four outcomes are: forecasts which make both truth claims and explanatory claims (predictions); forecasts which make truth claims, but not explanatory claims (prognoses); forecasts which make explanatory claims, but not truth claims (science fiction); and forecasts which make neither truth claims nor explanatory claims (utopias or dystopias). We regard each outcome as an ideal type, against which forecasts can be measured. We illustrate the use of the typology by presenting an example of each outcome.
The term we used to describe the study of alternative futures is important. Disciplines and discourses do not emerge from a vacuum but have a history and a cultural context; and their names can hide as much as they reveal. This paper examines such terms as ‘futurology’ and ‘foresight’, and argues that to emphasise plurality and diversity the study of the future is best served by the moniker ‘futures studies’. It suggests that remembering the history of futures discourse is necessary to resolve the crisis of identity and meaning, and frequent fruitless reinvention, of the field. Finally, it presents Sardar's four laws of futures studies: futures studies are wicked (they deal largely with complex, interconnected problems), MAD (emphasise Mutually Assured Diversity), sceptical (question dominant axioms and assumptions) and futureless (bear fruit largely in the present).
Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a ‘methodological chaos’ which is unlikely to disappear in the near future (A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001)). This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over ‘the definitions and methods of scenarios’. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted.
Does chance have a role in intelligent environments? In this work-in-progress paper we argue that chance and non-deterministic behaviour can play a fundamental and important role in intelligent environments. We discuss how this behaviour can be both destructive and constructive. Underpinning our ideas is the view that intelligent environments may be seen as a complex system of interacting services. In the first part of this paper we show that such complex systems can produce unexpected interactions that cause unplanned and often undesirable instabilities. However, not all instabilities are undesirable and in the second half of this paper, we present a conceptual notion that views system instability as a form of irrationality and propose a quantum control model for service agents within smart environments. We conjecture that irrational control models enable the service agents to perform better than if they were using traditional, rational, control models. Our purpose in presenting this work is to both provoke discussion and describe our early research on what we hope will be an interesting direction for intelligent building research.
Full-text of this article is not available in this e-prints service. This article was originally published [following peer-review] in Qualitative Market Research, published by and copyright Emerald Group Publishing Ltd. Consumer knowledge is a very important asset for an organisation. Two types of consumer knowledge have been identified, “knowledge about customers” including customer segments, individual customer preferences, potential customers, and “knowledge possessed by customers” including knowledge about product ranges, companies, and the marketplace. e-commerce offers an ideal medium for the creation and exchange of both types of knowledge. This paper presents the results of an initial phase in a research cycle that looks at e-commerce through the lens of knowledge management. It examines e-commerce provision made by organisations for customers across seven facets ranging from transactional to relational facilities. The results of a self-evaluation of companies' e-commerce propositions are contrasted with customer expectations to determine divergence and alignment. Implications are discussed and conclusions proposed.
This article commences with an elaboration of models of design as a process. It then introduces and describes a knowledge representation schema for design called design prototypes. This schema supports the initiation and continuation of the act of designing. Design prototypes are shown to provide a suitable framework to distinguish routine, innovative and creative design
It is often said that science fiction (SF) is significant because of its ability to predict social and technological change and to bring important issues to the fore, sometimes in advance of futures studies (FS). This article explores the relationship between the two fields of activity and examines how far FS researchers use SF, and in what role. Is SF of profound importance to FS or does it detract by tainting FS with pulp image?
Futures scenarios and fantasy both take flight from the notion that things could be otherwise. A scenario, though, is usually seen as suggesting a future possibility, while fantastic fiction plays with wild impossibilities. This essay explores two versions of communications futures, one a comic fiction, the other a serious scenario.
Stories, dreams, histories and myths, Michel de Certeau argues, connect people to particular places and makes place concrete and inhabitable. These narratives generate an imaginary, poetic geography that haunts the abstract city of street maps and development plans, and makes it socially meaningful. This paper is concerned with one particular kind of story-telling – science fiction – and its relationship with the city, urban planning, and questions of community engagement. The paper argues that the ‘cities of the imagination’ generated by science fiction and other forms of narrative provide a powerful means of understanding, communicating and enriching the connections to place in urban communities. Moreover, science fiction is often characterised by its ability to explore the future of cities. This gives the genre a fascinating and potentially useful resonance with urban planning as a discourse and set of practices; and, in particular, strategies for engaging communities in the design process and, thus, designing for future social sustainability. These ideas will be tested through a reading of near-future urban spatiality in the cyberpunk stories of William Gibson. The theorisation of the relationship between urban space and narrative in the work of de Certeau and other theorists will be used to help frame this discussion.
Scenarios are stories that depict some future event. We reviewed the research in which scenarios were created either by researchers or by research participants with or without structured guidelines. Regardless of how scenarios are created, they have been shown to alter people’s expectations about the depicted events. Evidence suggests that the ease with which a scenario is imagined or constructed, or the plausibility of a scenario, upwardly biases beliefs that the depicted event could occur. In some instances, attitudes or behaviors consistent with the altered expectancies have been observed. For example, persons who imagined subscribing to cable television were more likely to have favorable attitudes toward cable television and to subscribe than those receiving standard sales information, and mental health clinic clients who imagined remaining in therapy for at least four sessions were less likely to drop out prematurely than clients who simply received information on remaining in therapy. Practitioners who wish to alter clients’ expectancies regarding specific events can provide scenarios that (a) depict the occurrence of an event using concrete examples (not abstract information), (b) contain representative events, (c) contain easily recalled supporting evidence, (d) contain events linked by causal connections, (e) ask clients to project themselves into the situation, (f) require clients to describe how they acted and felt in the situation, (g) use plausible elements in the story, (h) include reasons why the events occur, (i) require clients to explain the outcomes, (j) take into account clients’ experiences with the topic, and (k) avoid causing reactance or boomerang effects in clients who might resent blatant influence attempts. We make additional recommendations concerning the situation in which clients are exposed to scenarios and the use of multiple scenarios.
What would constitute a robot identity? Would a robot developing an identity be consciousness of the processes that could/would shape its identity? This essay explores these questions by considering images common to both, futures studies and science fiction—in particular, the now famous anti-capitalist demonstrations in Seattle in November 1999.
Are speculations about the future ever truly inventive, or are they overly limited by today's reality? Many scholars suggest the latter, and have so for millennia. If this is true, speculations about the future in science fiction film should be closely constrained by today's reality, and truly novel and accurate visions of the future in science fiction must be rare. This paper presents a comparison of how computer technologies have been depicted in popular science fiction films with actual computer technologies that existed when the films were made. The investigation included charting the occurrence of 11 trends in real-world computer technologies and types of computer interaction (e.g., mainframe computers, textual and vector graphic-based interfaces, keyboard and mice) in 10 popular science fiction films spanning four decades (e.g., 2001: A Space Odyssey, Blade Runner, and Minority Report). The investigation revealed that depictions of computers in science fiction films mirror, for the most part, real world trends in computer technology development. The article concludes with a brief discussion of some implications of this finding.
It is often said that science fiction (SF) is significant because of its ability to predict social and technological change and to bring important issues to the fore, sometimes in advance of futures studies (FS). This article explores the relationship between the two fields of activity and examines how far FS researchers use SF, and in what role. Is SF of profound importance to FS or does it detract by tainting FS with pulp image?
This paper presents and further explores the issues discussed during the “New generations of futures methods” session at the WFSF 19th World Conference, Budapest, Hungary. The generational interplay has many different facets and can be looked at from many various perspectives. This paper looks at a broader role of young people as agents of cultural change in societies, their relation to futures studies and the implications of their fresh ways of thinking for futures methods. Also, the past evolution of futures methods and the challenges facing the present and future generation of futurists in regard to methodological as well as general development are reviewed. In an effort to draw together these issues and provide practical ways forward for futurists and their field four integrating themes are addressed:•Allowing for differences, how do we develop solidarity between generations?•What does the near-future outlook tell us that might help to achieve this?•What personal, organisational and social capacities are needed?•What methods are available for building social foresight?
This series presses on with the task of isolating and examining the principal factors that helped to develop the new literature of the future in the last century. It will come as no surprise to readers that science fiction was the main agent in spreading ideas about coming things. What began with Jules Verne and reached greater heights with H.G. Wells is now a universal model for writing—dreaming, hoping, and fearing—about the future. Science fiction has had more definitions than any other literary form. It is the one truly Protean form that can deal with any conceivable possibility—from anticipations of space travel to the end of our world.
The objective of this paper is to analyse how much the traditions of history research (HR) and futures research (FR) have in common and how they could assist each other. First, the role of time is analysed. Second, the path dependence theory, strategic decision-making, knowledge management and visionary management are discussed. Examples of the application of the latter in water and sanitation services and their long-term development are shown. Finally, some argumented views are presented on how the convergence between FR and HR could be improved.The key point of this research is the seeming discontinuity between presents, recent pasts and near futures. The traditions of HR probably make it more difficult to assess the effects of strategic decisions on the recent. If more convergence is wanted, the gap should be filled somehow. On the other hand, the core of FR research seems to concentrate more on strategic and visionary horizons while perhaps neglecting the operational horizon of the near future.
In the past, when the commercial world was relatively stable and the future plannable, organizational structure was appropriately the principal instrument of strategy. Now that strategy is more about intent than long-term plans, more about pasting and prototyping than planning for D-Day, companies need to start preparing for the future differently. The paper arises from a 98-corporation study of building e-business infrastructure. A particularly complex and pervasive issue was the fit between technology infrastructure and strategic intent and structure. Several companies were observed to be developing what we call here an Organizational Architecture capability to manage the problems they experienced. Here, using the case study base, we develop the rationale and content of such a capability, and show its key tie in to leveraging IT applications and infrastructure.
This article deals with paradigms in futures studies. Different approaches can be identified on the basis of their ontological attitude towards the ideas of change, evolution or progress in societal systems. It is possible to make a distinction between three different paradigms, namely (1) descriptive futures research, (2) the scenario paradigm and (3) evolutionary futures research. The first two are more or less well established, though heterogeneous, branches in the futures field with much research actually done. Evolutionary futures research, on the other hand, is only emerging at present. Its roots are in the study of complex, self-organizing evolutionary systems.
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