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A retrospective and lessons learned from Natural Resources Canada’s Forest 2020 afforestation initiative
Abstract
Canada is seeking cost-effective means to mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO 2 , that have been linked to global climate change. In 2003 the Government of Canada launched the Forest 2020 Plantation Development and Assessment Initiative to assess the potential for fast-growing woody crops to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Across the country 6000 ha of plantations were established and monitored on nonforested lands (afforestation) using a variety of methods. Economic analyses assessed the investment attractiveness of this mitigation measure for a range of species and suitable lands, taking into account such factors as growth rates, agricultural opportunity costs and a range of possible carbon values. Analyses illustrated that at current trading prices for carbon and for much of the available lands and expanding markets for forest bioproducts, expected rates of return on investment for afforestation were relatively low. However, higher future carbon prices, combined with monetary values for environmental benefits, could dramatically change the economics of afforestation in the future.
Key words: afforestation, carbon sequestration, forest carbon offset project, climate change mitigation, policy analysis, risk analysis, forest investment analysis, hybrids, hybrid poplar, fast-growing trees
... During the 20 th century, these programs occurred mostly in southern Ontario on private land, where ownership ranged from individual landowners to conservation groups and communities and were managed by a third party under an Agreement Forest Program (Borczon 1982;Teitelbaum and Bullock 2012;Metsaranta 2019). In the '90s, Trees Ontario, now known as Forests Ontario (FO), was formed to support large-scale afforestation efforts on private land across the province (Dominy et al. 2010). FO is a non-profit, charitable organization focused on afforestation, stewardship, education, and awareness. ...
... With funding from all levels of Government and private sponsors, FO works with a network of planting partners including conservation authorities, stewardship groups, forestry professionals, First Nations, municipalities, and local nurseries to build capacity and essential infrastructure related to large-scale tree planting. In 2003, the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) allocated funding to implement the federal Forest 2020 Plantation Demonstration and Assessment Initiative (F2020) (Dominy et al. 2010). This afforestation program occurred from 2004-2005 and included the planting of small-scale tree plantations across Canada. ...
... This afforestation program occurred from 2004-2005 and included the planting of small-scale tree plantations across Canada. FO partnered with CFS to implement the federal program in Ontario (Dominy et al. 2010). ...
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires its signatories, including Canada, to estimate and report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals. Forests are an important natural resource as they slow the accumulation of atmospheric carbon through the process of carbon sequestration. Due to the role of forests as carbon sinks, governments consider afforestation projects as feasible climate change mitigation strategies. This article outlines a spatially-explicit approach to validating afforestation data in Ontario, Canada. Validation is a user-supervised process that uses satellite imagery, remote sensing tools, and other auxiliary data to confirm the presence of seedlings planted through Forests Ontario’s 50 Million Tree program. Of the 12 466 hectares assessed, 83% is identified as afforested, 6% is not afforested and 10% is not determined. The area classified as successful afforestation is used as input for the Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM), to simulate afforestation effects on carbon stocks. Our findings show the afforestation activities will create a small carbon sink by 2060. From this project, it is evident that spatial validation of afforestation data is feasible, although the collection of additional standardized auxiliary data is recommended for future afforestation projects, if carbon benefits are to be reported.
... During the 20 th century, these programs occurred mostly in southern Ontario on private land, where ownership ranged from individual landowners to conservation groups and communities and were managed by a third party under an Agreement Forest Program (Borczon 1982;Teitelbaum and Bullock 2012;Metsaranta 2019). In the '90s, Trees Ontario, now known as Forests Ontario (FO), was formed to support large-scale afforestation efforts on private land across the province (Dominy et al. 2010). FO is a non-profit, charitable organization focused on afforestation, stewardship, education, and awareness. ...
... With funding from all levels of Government and private sponsors, FO works with a network of planting partners including conservation authorities, stewardship groups, forestry professionals, First Nations, municipalities, and local nurseries to build capacity and essential infrastructure related to large-scale tree planting. In 2003, the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) allocated funding to implement the federal Forest 2020 Plantation Demonstration and Assessment Initiative (F2020) (Dominy et al. 2010). This afforestation program occurred from 2004-2005 and included the planting of small-scale tree plantations across Canada. ...
... This afforestation program occurred from 2004-2005 and included the planting of small-scale tree plantations across Canada. FO partnered with CFS to implement the federal program in Ontario (Dominy et al. 2010). ...
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires its signatories, including Canada, to estimate and report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals. Forests are an important natural resource as they slow the accumulation of atmospheric carbon through the process of carbon sequestration. Due to the role of forests as carbon sinks, governments consider afforestation projects as feasible climate change mitigation strategies. This article outlines a spatially-explicit approach to validating afforestation data in Ontario, Canada. Validation is a user-supervised process that uses satellite imagery, remote sensing tools, and other auxiliary data to confirm the presence of seedlings planted through Forests Ontario’s 50 Million Tree program. Of the 12 466 hectares assessed, 83% is identified as afforested, 6% is not afforested and 10% is not determined. The area classified as successful afforestation is used as input for the Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM), to simulate afforestation effects on carbon stocks. Our findings show the afforestation activities will create a small carbon sink by 2060. From this project, it is evident that spatial validation of afforestation data is feasible, although the collection of additional standardized auxiliary data is recommended for future afforestation projects, if carbon benefits are to be reported.
... Studies showed that agroforestry systems with Populus spp. in temperate regions had C sequestration potential of 18 trees ha -1 year -1 (Nii-Annang et al. 2009;Tsonkova et al. 2012). In addition, hybrid poplar, both in grid-plantation and intercropped systems with annual crops or pasture, were indicated as a candidate species with C sequestration potential (e.g., Arevalo et al. 2011) that could be financially viable on farms (Dominy et al. 2010;Yemshanov et al. 2005). ...
... This is due to the fact that hybrid poplar has high maintenance costs every year during its cultivation, and the returns are realized only at the end of a lengthy growth period, i.e. 20 years in this study. Sensitivity analysis of economic models agree on the importance of key biological and economic variables that affect the outcome of cost-benefit analysis, such as site suitability (McKenney et al. 2006), establishment and management costs (Dominy et al. 2010;Keča et al. 2012), agricultural opportunity costs. McKenney et al. 2006;Dominy et al. 2010), and discount rates (Keča et al. 2012;Streed 2002;Toor et al. 2012;Yemshanov et al. 2012). ...
... Sensitivity analysis of economic models agree on the importance of key biological and economic variables that affect the outcome of cost-benefit analysis, such as site suitability (McKenney et al. 2006), establishment and management costs (Dominy et al. 2010;Keča et al. 2012), agricultural opportunity costs. McKenney et al. 2006;Dominy et al. 2010), and discount rates (Keča et al. 2012;Streed 2002;Toor et al. 2012;Yemshanov et al. 2012). The profitability of afforestation with hybrid poplar appears to be highly dependent on the discount rate considered in the economic analysis. ...
Fast-growing trees provide opportunities for carbon (C) sequestration. This study compared the C sequestration potential and cost benefit of four cultivation systems in southern Quebec, Canada. The systems studied included two hybrid poplar cultivation systems, a hybrid poplar and hay intercropping system (111 trees ha−1) and a hybrid poplar plantation (1,111 trees ha−1), and two agricultural systems, grain corn and hay. The C sequestration potential was estimated using the net primary productivity (NPP) approach, which relied on literature values and average yields for the study region. We used the NPP approach to quantify C fixed annually in above- and below-ground biomass, to determine the annual plant residue input to soil from litter, root turnover and root exudates, to estimate the fraction of plant residues stabilized in soil organic C, and to provide a reference value or estimate of C sequestration potential. Costs and benefits of the cultivation systems were assessed using replacement chain and equivalent annual annuity approaches, with alternate discount rates. Estimated C sequestration potential was highest for hybrid poplar grid plantation > hybrid poplar hay intercrop > grain corn > hay. Economic benefits, not accounting for potential benefits of C sequestration, were greatest for grain corn > hay > hybrid poplar-hay intercrop > hybrid poplar grid plantation. We conclude that economic valuation of C sequestration potential is necessary to improve the apparent profitability of tree-based cropping systems in Quebec, Canada. And if afforestation with hybrid poplar is considered as an option for increasing C sequestration on Canadian farms, government policies such as C-trading programs would be necessary to increase the financial attractiveness of hybrid poplar cultivation.
... Although this discussion is more prevalent in other countries, research has been conducted in Canada investigating afforestation with hybrid poplar. Dominy et al. (2010) report that, while there are not enough private lands available to fully offset Canada's emissions through C sequestration by tree planting in conjunction with biomass to replace fossil fuels, afforestation is an option in the suite of possible mitigation measures for addressing GHG emissions targets. At trading prices under $15/tCO 2 eq, the rate of return on investment (8% to 12%) is relatively low, but at expected higher future C prices ($16 to $32/tCO 2 eq), in addition to benefits from wood fibre and other environmental services, the economics of afforestation could dramatically change (Dominy et al. 2010). ...
... Dominy et al. (2010) report that, while there are not enough private lands available to fully offset Canada's emissions through C sequestration by tree planting in conjunction with biomass to replace fossil fuels, afforestation is an option in the suite of possible mitigation measures for addressing GHG emissions targets. At trading prices under $15/tCO 2 eq, the rate of return on investment (8% to 12%) is relatively low, but at expected higher future C prices ($16 to $32/tCO 2 eq), in addition to benefits from wood fibre and other environmental services, the economics of afforestation could dramatically change (Dominy et al. 2010). ...
Forests have significant potential to mitigate climate change. Canada has 30% of the world's boreal forests. The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol commoditized carbon (C) on an international scale. To achieve Canada's emission reduction targets and mitigate climate change, the potential of forest C offset projects and forest C trading is being evaluated. Carbon trading and forest C management have economic and policy implications and potential trade-offs in other forest management objectives. We discuss how forest C management and trading can contribute to global efforts for atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions reduction through either utilization and/or conservation strategies.
... Since 2003, 27 000 hectares of SRWC plantations using the high yield afforestation (HYA) method were established across the country by various stakeholders with a portion of these sites established on non-forested lands (afforestation), using a variety of methods proposed by CFS developers (Dominy et al. 2010). HYA has demonstrated the greatest economic potential, as the orchard style plantations reduce establishment and harvesting costs and yield the greatest potential volume of fibre per hectare. ...
Canada is seeking cost-effective means to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO 2 . One of the promising means is the short rotation woody crops (SRWC) plantation, a silvicultural approach to establishing and managing fast growing plantations on previously cleared lands. This paper utilizes the data set provided by recent harvesting operations at the Ellerslie SRWC Technical Development Site in Edmonton (Alberta) to assess the ability of SRWC using High Yield Afforestation to mitigate GHG emissions and generate more wood fibre and the investment attractiveness to establish future plantations. Results illustrate that at current trading prices for carbon credits and market prices of woodchips, expected rates of return on investment for SRWC were relatively low, despite a positive net present value ($400/ha for 20 year planting cycle without carbon credits). However, estimates from the Ellerslie site indicate that 330 tons of CO 2 -eq per hectare are captured above and below ground over the 20 year plantation cycle. However, higher future carbon prices, a well-developed market for buying and selling carbon credits, as well as adapted policy including additional government sponsored programs for carbon credits, could make SRWC more attractive and dramatically change the economics of afforestation in the future.
... Urbanization generates drastic habitat alterations (McKinney, 2006) which drives to green area loss and fragmentation Xu et al., 2018), inducing biodiversity loss in urban areas McDonald et al., 2020McDonald et al., , 2018McKinney, 2006;Shochat et al., 2010). These consequences could be diminished by a proper urban afforestation (Dominy et al., 2010;Jin et al., 2021;Jones, 2021;Nagendra, 2007;Oldfield et al., 2013) and the creation and conservation of urban green spaces (UGS) (Karade et al., 2017). UGS are open or semi-open spaces with vegetation that could be public or private (Haq, 2011;Taylor and Hochuli, 2017). ...
Wooded streets diminish the negative consequences of urban growth on biodiversity. However, bird use of wooded streets has been little studied, in most cases analyzing bird species richness and abundance in developed countries. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between environmental variables of wooded streets of Buenos Aires City (Argentina) and bird taxonomic and functional diversity as well as species and functional trait composition. We placed 26 100 m x 50 m transects within the wooded streets of the urban center. Bird surveys were performed during the austral spring and summer. Species richness, Pielou’s evenness, Shannon index, Functional dispersion (FDis), and species and functional trait composition were analyzed. Taxonomic and functional diversity were negatively related to pedestrian and motorized vehicle traffic. On the other hand, taxonomic diversity was related positively to streets with varied tree heights. Native taxonomic diversity and functional diversity increased near green areas. High building coverage negatively influenced the native taxonomic diversity. Bird species associated with humans, such as the Rock Dove (Columba livia) and the Eared Dove (Zenaida auriculata) increased their abundances in sites with high pedestrian and motorized traffic. The House Wren (Troglodytes aedon), the Baywinged Cowbird (Agelaioides badius), and the Red-bellied Thrush (Turdus rufiventris) were positively related with varied tree heights. Birds that feed on the ground and the undergrowth were negatively influenced by high building coverage. It is imperative to preserve green areas and to control motorized vehicle traffic in order to improve the environmental quality of wooded streets for supporting bird diversity.
... Afforestation is one of the major practices for city ecological restoring and regreening [30,31], converting non-vegetated areas to forest land through planting trees [32,33], playing an important role in mitigating environmental degradation [13,34] e.g., increasing urban greenspace and improving soil fertility [35], increasing the habitat for urban animals, and regulating urban climates [32]. Globally, over 40 countries have invested at least 15% of their government revenue to national forest conservation, afforestation, reforestation, and plantation [36]. ...
(1) Research Highlights: Afforestation is one of the most effective urban greening practices for mitigating a variety of environmental issues. Globally, municipal governments have launched large-scale afforestation programs in metropolitan areas during the last decades. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban greenspace patterns are seldom studied during such afforestation programs. (2) Background and Objectives: In this study, the Beijing Plain Afforestation Project (BPAP), which planted 70,711 ha of trees in only four years, was examined by integrating spatial and landscape analysis. To evaluate the real-world outcomes of this massive program, we investigated the spatial-temporal dynamics of landscape patterns during the implementation process to identify potential impacts and challenges for future management of new afforestation. (3) Materials and Methods: We analyzed the transition of various patch types and sizes, applied landscape indicators to measure the temporal changes in urban greenspace patterns, and used the landscape expansion index to quantify the rate and extent of greenspace spatial expansion. (4) Results: Our results illustrated that the implementation of afforestation in the Beijing plain area had generally achieved its initial goal of increasing the proportion of land devoted to forest (increased 8.43%) and parks (increased 0.23%). Afforestation also accelerated the conversion of small-size greenspaces to large-size patches. However, the significant discrepancies found between planned and actual afforestation sites, as well as the large conversion of cropland to forest, may present major challenges for project optimization and future management. (5) Conclusions: This study demonstrated that spatial analysis is a useful and potentially replicable method that can rapidly provide new data to support further afforestation ecosystem assessments and provide spatial insights into the optimization of large inner-city afforestation projects.
... Forest sector efforts supported by the Pan-Canadian Framework for Clean Growth and Climate Change include rehabilitation of forests after natural disturbances, construction of innovative wood structures, and the use of wood for heating in remote and rural communities instead of fossil fuel burning (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2018a). Moreover, analyses of future mitigation options and costs in the forest sector have examined increased stand-level and landscape-level C density, increased use of longer-lived products (LLP), as well as avoided emissions when wood is substituted for other products and fossil fuel energy sources that are more emissions-intensive on a life-cycle basis (Dominy et al. 2010;Lemprière et al. 2017;Smyth et al. 2017;Smyth et al. 2014). ...
Managing forests and forest products to help mitigate climate change was quantified in three coordinated studies involving six regions within North America. Each country-specific study examined several mitigation scenarios in a comparative analysis, using harmonized tools with site-specific data and a systems approach that included forest
ecosystem, harvested wood products, and substitution benefits relative to a forward-looking baseline. Here we synthesized the North American case studies by comparing normalized annual mitigation potential (net change in emissions and removals relative to the baseline), and examined differences in ecosystems and drivers that affected the ranking of mitigation activities. Considering all six study sites, the highest mitigation potential over the 32-year study period occurred in southern temperate and tropical regions where avoided deforestation, increased afforestation, and accelerated forest recovery after disturbance resulted in the greatest reduction in net emissions.
The only effective scenario common to all regions was increased production of longer-lived wood products, where longer product lifetimes delayed emissions to the atmosphere, and increased substitution benefits from using wood in place of more emissions-intensive materials. We conclude that regionally differentiated mitigation scenarios that take into account diverse ecosystems dynamics and drivers offer the highest mitigation potential and a practical way to allocate resources for forestry activities.
... In northern Alberta, approximately 1200 ha of hybrid poplar plantations were established each year for a number of years, with the goal of establishing a total of 10 000 ha on 20-25 yr rotations, to supplement wood supply for pulp and paper mills (A. Hayward, personal communication, Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc., St. Albert, AB, Canada), whereas 6000 ha of hybrid poplar plantations had been established in other locations across Canada (Dominy et al. 2010). Establishment of hybrid poplar plantations at such a scale will have significant implications not only for wood supply in the region but also for the C balance and its feedback on the regional climate. ...
Forest stand age can affect ecosystem carbon (C) cycling and net ecosystem productivity (NEP). In Canada, establishment of short-rotation plantations on previously agricultural lands has been ongoing but the effect of stand development on soil respiration (Rs) and NEP in such plantations is poorly understood. This type of data is essential for constraining ecosystem models that simulate C dynamics over the rotation of a plantation. We studied Rs (including autotrophic, Ra, and heterotrophic, Rh) and NEP in 2008 and 2009 in a chronosequence of 5-, 8-, 14-, and 16-year-old (ages in 2009) hybrid poplar (Populus deltoides x Populus x petrowskyana var. Walker) plantations in northern Alberta. The highest Rs and NEP were generally found in the 14-year-old stand. Seasonal variations in Rs were similar among the plantations, with most of the variation explained by soil temperature at the 10 cm depth in 2008 with far less explained in 2009, a much drier year. In diurnal measurements, hysteresis was found between soil respiration and soil temperature, with the patterns of hysteresis different among stand ages. Soil respiration in the 14-year-old plantation had the greatest sensitivity to temperature changes. Stand age did not affect the Rh:Rs ratio, while the NEP exhibited strong inter-annual variability. We conclude that stand age was a major factor affecting Rs and NEP and such effects should be considered in empirical models used to simulate ecosystem C dynamics to evaluate potentials for C sequestration and the C source-sink relationship in short-rotation woody crop systems.
... can attain 10 dry Mg ha −1 yr −1 , with values approaching 20 dry Mg ha −1 yr −1 for genotypes that are well adapted to local site conditions (Zalesny et al. 2012;Truax et al. 2014). To achieve these production targets, a number of Populus and Salix clonal and progeny trials were established to evaluate growth rates, adaptability, and disease resistance across Canada over several decades (Dominy et al. 2010). However, there is a continuous need to develop and select better clones that could show higher growth performance and productivity, thereby producing economic returns on investment in SRF plantations (McKenney et al. 2011). ...
Leaf photosynthetic characteristics could be determinant factors to identify the most productive clones of hybrid poplars (Populus spp.) and willows (Salix spp.). Photosynthetic acclimation of hybrid poplars and willows was studied under greenhouse conditions. Seven Populus and five Salix clones were grown for 3 months at three spacings [20 × 20, 35 × 35, and 60 × 60 cm] and two nitrogen (N) levels (20 and 200 μg g⁻¹). There were no significant spacing effects on leafless aboveground biomass per tree (AGBT) and height. Clonal acclimation to higher density was associated to increases in leaf area index (LAI) by 347% and specific leaf area (SLA) by 13% despite decreased leaf N content per unit leaf area (Narea) by 31%. There were no changes in net CO2 assimilation rate (A) and photosynthetic N-use efficiency in the ambient light condition (PNUEamb) within different spacings. The N addition alleviated competition effects by maximizing leaf area (LA) and SLA. Compared with less productive clones, more productive clones had 28% greater SLA, greater LA and AGBT per unit of increase in Narea over all treatments. The increased development of LA and SLA under high planting density is a key indicator of more productive clones.
... The high transaction costs associated with forest offset projects, especially in terms of measuring, monitoring, reporting, and verifying (MMRV), can also reduce net economic benefit of offsets (Cacho et al., 2013). Certain types of projects, especially afforestation with slow growing trees, may provide particularly low returns on investment (Dominy et al., 2010). The use of an ex-post system (i.e., payments made after the offset has been generated) represents an important hindrance to the successful implementation of plantation projects since it takes several years before trees are grown. ...
In recent years, the provision of economic incentives through carbon financing and carbon offsetting has been central to efforts at forest carbon mitigation. However, notwithstanding their potentially important roles in climate policy, forest carbon offsets face numerous barriers which have limited widespread implementation worldwide. This paper uses the case study of the Canadian province of British Columbia to explore the barriers associated with achieving widespread implementation of forest carbon offsets in the next several decades. Drawing on interviews with experts from government, non-governmental organizations, the private sector and First Nations, six main barriers are identified and discussed: (1) deficiencies of carbon markets, (2) limited economic benefits, (3) uncertain climate effectiveness, (4) negative public opinion, (5) limited and uncertain property rights, and (6) governance issues. While respondents from different sectors agreed on various points, divergence was also observed, notably on the trade-off between generating environmentally sound offsets and promoting cost-effective ways to achieve mitigation. We discuss these differences in the context of the goals and objectives of different actors, and offer insights for understanding the uptake (or not) of carbon offset policies.
... Bickerstaff et al. (1981) suggest a range of mean annual increments (MAI) of 0.3 m 3 /year for slow growing species on poorer sites to over 10.5 m 3 /year on very good sites. Greater MAI values have been documented for intensively managed fast growing poplar plantations in certain circumstances (Dominy et al., 2010); however, the area of fast growing poplar plantations remains low and the economic rates of return on investing in such plantations are also low due to their high establishment cost (see Yemshanov et al., 2005). Furthermore, much harvested land in Canada is allowed to regenerate naturally. ...
Canada's timber supply: current status and future prospects under a changing climate. 2016. McKenney, D.W.; Yemshanov, D.; Pedlar, J.; Allen, D.; Lawrence, K.; Hope, E.; Lu, B.; Eddy, B. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service. Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. 75p. Information Report GLC-X-15
http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=37783
This report contains an update of certain sections of the 1991 Forestry Canada Information Report Canada’s Timber Supply: Current Status and Outlook and preliminary results of a computer-based national timber supply study examining potential impacts of climate change. We first review historical harvests and allowable cut levels, place Canada’s forests in an international context, and briefly review global timber market studies that examine the implications of a changing climate. The second part of this report uses bioeconomic modelling to examine the national timber supply question from the growing and delivery-to-mills perspective. This analysis, which represents the first effort of its kind at this scale in the country. Although the analysis must be considered preliminary due to various data and computational challenges, it would appear that significant increases in delivered wood costs are plausible over the course of the century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas emission pathway. British Columbia and Quebec appear most likely to bear the brunt of the changes, with many mills potentially facing delivered wood shortages and/or cost increases of greater than 25% - even by mid-century. While this analysis identifies numerous challenges for forest managers, ranging from allowable cut determinations to developing climate change adaptation strategies, we note that significant research efforts are required to increase confidence in the results, particularly in refining the inventory and growth and yield components. Disturbance regime changes will always remain challenging to forecast with specific spatial or temporal precision. Actual outcomes in the future will of course be highly influenced by such specifics.
... These offset companies represent the perfect embodiment of a green neo-liberalism, promising to turn climate actions into economic opportunities. Forming a policy coalition with the silvicultural and reforestation industry that benefit from combining afforestation and carbon offsetting (Dominy et al., 2010;Yemshanov et al., 2005), these actors actively lobby for policies supporting the establishment of a forest carbon economy. ...
The most significant carbon mitigation policy currently targeting BC’s forests is the Forest Carbon Offsets Protocol (FCOP) that outlines the rules regulating forest carbon offsets. By applying the Policy Regime Framework to the FCOP, this paper addresses the following specific questions: what is the extent of the policy change brought by FCOP, and what are the main factors that influenced and shaped this policy change? The paper concludes that policy did change: an offset regime was established and FCOP was adopted to steer the development of forest carbon offsets. It is the executive branch of government, and especially Premier Gordon Campbell, that was most influential during problem definition and the decision making around forest carbon offset policy. In addition, environmentalists and First Nations, by advocating for a conservation economy, and the private sector, by lobbying the government to prioritize their economic interests, also influenced the policy making process. However, the actual magnitude of policy change that occurred with the emergence of the forest carbon policy regime is quite limited. Apart from a few conservation and improved forest management projects that mostly benefited First Nations, very few projects have been successfully implemented to date. This limited policy change was caused by various economic, social and political limitations. In particular, the shift in government in 2011 that led to the decision not to implement a cap and trade program significantly reduced marketing opportunities for BC-based forest offsets. In addition, the negative public opinion towards the credibility and effectiveness of forest carbon offsets, the low international price of carbon, the high transaction costs and the lack of financing options strongly restrained their development.
... In Canada, ongoing afforestation on previously agricultural land, especially planting of short-rotation woody crops such as hybrid poplars, has been considered as an effective way to mitigate net CO 2 emissions (Yemshanov et al. 2012). Given that approximately a total of 10,000-ha hybrid poplar plantations had been established in northern Alberta (Hayward, personal communication) on 20-to 25-year rotations to supplement wood supply for pulp and paper mills, while 6000 ha of hybrid poplar plantations had been established across Canada (Dominy et al. 2010), afforestation with short-ration plantations can significantly impact the regional and national C balance. When the C balance in the entire ecosystem is considered, poplar plantations are known to rapidly accumulate C in the form of biomass C in the trees (Arevalo et al. 2009) and the benefit for poplar plantations to act as a net C sink can be realized in a short 5-7 years depending on the site condition (Arevalo et al. 2011;Sun et al. 2015). ...
The effect of land use change from agricultural to short rotation woody crops on soil respiration and its temperature sensitivity is not fully understood. We studied the effect of land use change on soil respiration, in a factorial experiment, 4 years after converting an agricultural field to a Walker poplar (Populus deltoides × Populus × petrowskyana var. Walker) plantation in the boreal region of northeastern Alberta. Overall, total soil respiration was greater in the agricultural plots (planted to alfalfa, Medicago sativa L.) than in the poplar plots. Soil respiration and soil temperature at the 10-cm depth in both land uses had similar seasonal and diurnal variations. The season-long temperature sensitivity (Q10) of daily and nighttime soil respiration in the alfalfa plots was greater than that in the poplar plots, with Q10 values of 5.4 vs. 4.9, respectively. Our data also show that, 4 years after land use conversion, the heterotrophic respiration was smaller in the poplar plots than in the adjacent agricultural plots, indicating potential benefits of plantation establishment in reducing heterotrophic respiration. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration based on monthly nighttime rates, which minimizes the plant phenological influences, was greater in the poplar plantation, suggesting that soil respiration could become greater in the poplar plantation under a future warmer climate. We conclude that establishment of poplar plantations, which are known to have a fast rate of biomass production for long-term carbon storage, may help mitigate climate change by reducing heterotrophic and total soil respiration in the Canadian boreal region, but the long-term implications (e.g., changes in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration over time) need to be further studied.
... Indicator Burkett & Kusler, 2000; Dale et al., 2001; Hulme, 2005; Danby & Hik, 2007; McKenney et al., 2007; Aitken et al., 2008; Iverson et al., 2008; Hogg et al., 2008; Erwin, 2009 Unmodified Hall & Farge, 2003; Scott, 2003; Scott & Lemieux, 2005; Danby & Hik, 2007; McKenney et al., 2007; Scott et al., 2007; Hogg et al., 2008 Unmodified, 1984; Bradshaw et al., 1995; Chapin et al., 1998; Thomas, 1998; Chowns, 2003; Matthews et al., 2004; Malcom et al., 2006; Mawdsley et al., 2009; Vitt et al., 2010; Tyler, 2010 Unmodified, 1992; Rogers & Ledig, 1996; McCarty, 2001; Flemming et al., 2002; Scott & Lemieux, 2005; Beardmore et al., 2006; Gray, 2005; Groom et al., 2006 Chaplin et al., 1995; Braswell et al., 1997; Colombo & Buse, 1998; Peng & Apps, 1999; Dale et al., 2001; Gitay et al., 2001; Schimel et al., 2001; Zhou et al., 2001; Norby et al., 2005; Bunn & Goetz, 2006; Bernier, 2007; Zhang et al., 2008; Friend, 2010; McMahon et al., 2010 Modified & Candau, 1998; Fleming, 2000; Peterson, 2000; Dale et al., 2001; Harper et al., 2004; Pederson, 2004; Carroll, 2006; Hogg & Bernier, 2006; Gray, 2008; Flannigan et al., 2009 Modified Apps et al., 1999; Pederson, 2004; Spittlehouse, 2005; Verburg, 2005; Canadell & Raupach, 2008; Hennigar et al., 2008; Neilson et al., 2008; MacLean et al., 2010 Unmodified Perez-Garcia et al., 2002; Bradley, 2006; Browne & Hunt, 2007; McKenney et al., 2007; Williamson et al., 2008; Yemshanov & McKenney, 2008; Dominy et al., 2010 Modified Hauer et al., 2001; Duchesne & Wetzel, 2002; Scott, 2003; Gray, 2005; Browne & Hunt, 2007; Freedman et al., 2009; Anderson et al., 2010a; Anderson et al., 2010b Modified 5.1.5. 4 Forest ecosystem change; loss of biogeographic stability Franke, 2000; Scott, 2003; Scott & Lemieux, 2005; McFarlane et al., 2006; Scott et al., 2007; Anderson et al., 2010a; Anderson et al., 2010b; Solano-Rivera, 2010 Unmodified 5.2.1. 9 Forest ecosystem change; public awareness of climate-change issues Haley & Luckart, 1990; Beckley, 1998; Haley & Nelson, 2007 Modified 5.2.2. 9 Forest ecosystem change; timber supply fluctuation Garcia et al., 2002; Kirilenko & Sedjo, 2007; Kurz et al., 2008 Unmodified www.ccsenet.org/jsd ...
Sustainability is now woven throughout forest management and policy. Criteria and indicators (C&I) provide a means of defining the concepts of sustainability in the context of forest management and establishing goals to gauge progress. There have been no major research initiatives to determine the implications of climate change for C&I. We evaluated the 46 indicators of the 2003 Canadian Council of Forest Ministers framework. Indicators were evaluated for their relationships with climate, relationships with other indicators, robustness and utility under climate change, and future prospects, including abandonment, improvement, or continued use. An evaluation framework was developed to analyze indicator linkages, direct and indirect climate-change influence, and potential modifications. 12 indicators were considered unaffected by climate change. The remaining 34 indicators were considered to be influenced by climate change. No modification seemed warranted for 23 of these indicators, while modifications for the remaining 11 indicators were recommended. Six new indicators were identified for monitoring forests sustainably under climate change. The difference between action and state indicators had implications for the influence of climate change on indicator effectiveness. State indicators were more prone to declines in their tracking ability, while action indicators were often unaffected, or even improved under climate change, as measured by several key traits of indicator effectiveness. The most prevalent theme in the evaluations was a decline in indicator predictability. We suggest moving from predominantly retrospective analysis to a balance of retrospective and prospective analysis, given that monitoring is inherently backward-looking and the threats and uncertainties of climate change are impending.
... As a result, C removals due to afforestation in the boreal zone also have been quite small historically . However, afforestation is the forest-related mitigation activity most thoroughly assessed in Canada as a whole and in the boreal zone (e.g., Dominy et al. 2010), both because it can increase soil and biomass C and because it can provide a sustainable feedstock for bioenergy (Yemshanov and McKenney 2008;Amichev et al. 2012). The GHG emissions due to plantation site development and tending (e.g., fertilization and weed control) and harvesting operations will affect the mitigation potential though many studies do not include these impacts and they will typically be relatively small compared with the sequestration (e.g., Gaboury et al. 2009). ...
Quantitative assessment of Canada's boreal forest mitigation potential is not yet possible, though the range of mitigation activities is known, requirements for sound analyses of options are increasingly understood, and there is emerging recognition that biogeophysical effects need greater attention. Use of a systems perspective highlights trade-offs between activities aimed at increasing carbon storage in the ecosystem, increasing carbon storage in harvested wood products (HWPs), or increasing the substitution benefits of using wood in place of fossil fuels or more emissions-intensive products. A systems perspective also suggests that erroneous conclusions about mitigation potential could result if analyses assume thatHWPcarbon is emitted at harvest, or bioenergy is carbon neutral. The greatest short-run boreal mitigation benefit generally would be achieved by avoiding greenhouse gas emissions; but over the longer run, there could be significant potential in activities that increase carbon removals. Mitigation activities could maximize landscape carbon uptake or maximize landscape carbon density, but not both simultaneously. The difference between the two is the rate at which HWPs are produced to meet society's demands,
and mitigation activities could seek to delay or reduce HWP emissions and increase substitution benefits. Use of forest biomass for bioenergy could also contribute though the point in time at which this produces a net mitigation benefit relative to a fossil fuel alternative will be situation-specific. Key knowledge gaps exist in understanding boreal mitigation strategies that are robust to climate change and how mitigation could be integrated with adaptation to climate change
... Therefore, the current low profitability of LW2 afforestation could represent a serious obstacle to large-scale afforestation projects in the boreal forest. A retrospective of the pan-Canadian afforestation initiative reveals that even if fast-growing species (hybrid poplar on private croplands) can provide a range of C benefits, their returns are generally not high enough to induce large-scale investments (Dominy et al. 2010). Otherwise, Van Kooten et al. (2004) highlight the influence of discount rates on the time value of C and the marginal value of afforestation. ...
Afforestation has the potential to offset the increased emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide and has therefore been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change. Here we review the opportunities for carbon (C) offsets through open lichen woodland afforestation in the boreal forest of eastern Canada as a case study, while considering the reversal risks (low productivity, fires, insect outbreaks, changes in land use and the effects of future climate on growth potential as well as on the disturbances regime). Our results suggest that : (1) relatively low growth rate may act as a limiting factor in afforestation projects in which the time available to increase C is driven by natural disturbances; (2) with ongoing climate change, a global increase in natural disturbance rates, mainly fire and spruce budworm outbreaks, may offset any increases in net primary production at the landscape level; (3) the reduction of the albedo versus increase in biomass may negatively affect the net climate forcing; (4) the impermanence of C stock linked to the reversal risks makes this scenario not necessarily cost attractive. More research, notably on the link between fire risk and site productivity, is needed before afforestation can be incorporated into forest management planning to assist climate change mitigation efforts. Therefore, we suggest that conceivable mitigation strategies in the boreal forest will likely have to be directed activities that can reduce emissions and can increase C sinks while minimizing the reversal impacts. Implementation of policies to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in the boreal forest should consider the biophysical interactions, the different spatial and temporal scales of their benefits, the costs (investment and benefits) and how all these factors are influenced by the site history.
... Therefore, the current low profitability of LW2 afforestation could represent a serious obstacle to large-scale afforestation projects in the boreal forest. A retrospective of the pan-Canadian afforestation initiative reveals that even if fast-growing species (hybrid poplar on private croplands) can provide a range of C benefits, their returns are generally not high enough to induce large-scale investments (Dominy et al. 2010). Otherwise, Van Kooten et al. (2004) highlight the influence of discount rates on the time value of C and the marginal value of afforestation. ...
Afforestation has the potential to offset the increased emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide and has therefore been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change. Here we review the opportunities for carbon (C) offsets through open lichen woodland afforestation in the boreal forest of eastern Canada as a case study, while considering the reversal risks (low productivity, fires, insect outbreaks, changes in land use and the effects of future climate on growth potential as well as on the disturbances regime). Our results suggest that : (1) relatively low growth rate may act as a limiting factor in afforestation projects in which the time available to increase C is driven by natural disturbances; (2) with ongoing climate change, a global increase in natural disturbance rates, mainly fire and spruce budworm outbreaks, may offset any increases in net primary production at the landscape level; (3) the reduction of the albedo versus increase in biomass may negatively affect the net climate forcing; (4) the impermanence of C stock linked to the reversal risks makes this scenario not necessarily cost attractive. More research, notably on the link between fire risk and site productivity, is needed before afforestation can be incorporated into forest management planning to assist climate change mitigation efforts. Therefore, we suggest that conceivable mitigation strategies in the boreal forest will likely have to be directed activities that can reduce emissions and can increase C sinks while minimizing the reversal impacts. Implementation of policies to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in the boreal forest should consider the biophysical interactions, the different spatial and temporal scales of their benefits, the costs (investment and benefits) and how all these factors are influenced by the site history.
... Intensive plantation forestry with fast-growing hybrid poplars has been advocated for its CO2 sequestration potential, and in Canada thousands of hectares of hybrid poplar plantations have been established under the federal 'Forest 2020' afforestation initiative to help meet greenhouse gas reduction targets (Dominy et al. 2010).The boreal and sub-boreal planting environments throughout Canada pose special challenges however, and planting stock needs to be well adapted to harsh winter conditions. While drought tolerance and productivity of hybrid poplars have been relatively well researched (Monclus et al. 2006;Hogg, Brandt & Michaelian 2008;Silim et al. 2009;Soolanayakanahally et al. 2009;Schreiber et al. 2011), studies that investigate winter biological traits of hybrid poplars are limited, particularly linking these traits with growth performance (cf. ...
In recent years, thousands of hectares of hybrid poplar plantations have been established in Canada for the purpose of carbon sequestration and wood production. However, boreal planting environments pose special challenges that may compromise the long-term survival and productivity of such plantations. In this study, we evaluated the effect of winter stress, that is, frequent freeze-thaw and extreme cold events, on growth and survival of 47 hybrid poplar clones in a long-term field experiment. We further assessed physiological and structural traits that are potentially important for cold tolerance for a selected set of seven clones. We found that trees with narrow xylem vessels showed reduced freezing-induced embolism and showed superior productivity after 16 growing seasons. With respect to cold hardiness of living tissues, we only observed small differences among clones in early autumn, which were nonetheless significantly correlated to growth. Maximum winter cold hardiness and the timing of leaf senescence and budbreak were not related to growth or survival. In conclusion, our data suggest that reduction of freezing-induced embolism due to small vessel diameters is an essential adaptive trait to ensure long-term productivity of hybrid poplar plantations in boreal planting environments.
Pan-Pacific cities are home to nearly 55% of the world’s urban residents. As the fastest growing urban centers in the world, their growth comes with increasing demand for urban amenities such as greenspace. Yet, our understanding of greenspace trends within and among pan-Pacific cities is limited due to a lack of consistent long-term land cover data necessary for transnational comparisons. We tracked and compared greenspace patterns in 16 major pan-Pacific cities over 28 years. We asked: (1) How do long-term trends in greenspace heterogeneity differ among pan-Pacific cities? and (2) How do these patterns vary along urban–rural gradients? To characterize greenspace, we distinguished four vegetation density classes using normalized difference vegetation indices from annual Landsat composites spanning 1984–2012. First, we assessed long-term trends in greenspace spatial patterns. Second, we evaluated greenspace change along a gradient outward from city centers. We found that although GDP increased in all cities in recent decades, their greenspace patterns diverged into either greening or browning trends. In greening cities, expansion of dense vegetation, mostly in the outskirts of cities, resulted in greater greenspace connectivity. In contrast, browning cities lost dense vegetation in rural fringes, yet not in their urban centers. In Asian cities, dense vegetation increased in areal extent and connectivity over time as well as outward along the urban–rural gradient, in contrast to most North American cities. These differences in greenspace heterogeneity and connectivity over time and space imply that strategies and policies derived from North American cities may not be directly applicable to Asian cities.
Global efforts are urgently needed to mitigate climate change, which involves changing business-as-usual activities to reduce greenhouse gases emissions and increase removals of carbon from the atmosphere. Because of their role as carbon sinks, forests offer climate mitigation potential when and if they are managed effectively. The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia (BC). The province faces a decision context where publicly owned forests occupy 60% of the land base and the role of forests in mitigating climate change is scientifically established and politically acknowledged. At the same time, a policy gap exists and little is known in terms of public opinion on forest carbon mitigation options and policy. Drawing upon the idea that any future forest carbon management activities and policies will require strong public and political support and acceptability, I seek to identify what are BC’s public and stakeholders’ perceptions on advantages and issues associated with existing and prospective mitigation options in the forests.
First, I analyze the extent of policy change brought by the Forest Carbon Offset Protocol, which until 2016 was one of the only significant forest carbon policy options in BC. I conclude that while policy changes occurred, notably by allowing for offset projects, the extent of these changes is limited by numerous barriers. Second, I explore these barriers and provide recommendations for the future uptake of forest carbon offset. Third, I describe the result of an online survey of BC’s general public that indicates overall support for eight different forest mitigation options, with greater preference for rehabilitation and conservation-focused strategies. Fourth I report on the result of an extensive analytic-deliberative engagement process with stakeholders and indigenous people across BC where participants indicated support for six mitigation strategies, with high consensus between regions and sectoral groups. Fifth, I evaluate the analytic-deliberative process and provide recommendations for the design of similar methodologies. The dissertation concludes that, notwithstanding apparent differences in preferences and priorities, an opportunity exists to move forward with a set of comprehensive, multi-faceted forest carbon mitigation actions and policies.
O Projeto Manejo dos Recursos Naturais da Várzea (ProVárzea) é o projeto que o Ibama submeteu ao Programa Piloto para a Proteção das Florestas Tropicais do Brasil (PPG7), coordenado pela Secretaria de Coordenação da Amazônia do Ministério do Meio Ambiente com o objetivo de estabelecer as bases científica, técnica e política para a conservação e manejo ambiental e socialmente sustentáveis dos recursos naturais das várzeas da região central da bacia amazônica com ênfase em recursos pesqueiros. A ênfase na pesca é consistente com o objetivo geral de promover o uso racional dos recursos da várzea, uma vez que esta atividade é base da dieta e principal fonte de renda da população ribeirinha. Além disso, o recurso pesqueiro representa a síntese das interações entre os diversos componentes do ecossistema de várzea. Os principais problemas abordados pelo ProVárzea foram: 1. Degradação ambiental. A várzea é um ecossistema ameaçado pela destruição de ha-bitats, pesca não manejada e exploração madeireira predatória. A destruição de habitats (especialmente, remoção da cobertura florestal) para implantação de fazendas de gado bovino e criação de búfalos reduz a oferta de alimento e abrigo para os peixes, afetando severamente a cadeia produtiva do ecossistema através do impacto sobre a vegetação mar-ginal, principalmente macrófitas aquáticas. Tanto o consumo direto pelo búfalo, como o pisoteio, reduz a área desta vegetação, importante como habitat para os peixes, principal-mente durante a seca nas áreas alagáveis. 2. Sobrepesca. Particularmente nas espécies de peixe que têm sofrido maior esforço pesqueiro como a piramutaba (Brachyplatystoma vailantii), o tambaqui (Colossoma ma-cropomum) e o pirarucu (Arapaima gigas). Essas espécies têm em comum o fato de ser-em muito apreciadas para o consumo, atingirem tamanhos relativamente grandes, e po-ssuírem uma baixa taxa de crescimento. 3. Conflitos sociais. A redução dos estoques do pescado tem causado conflitos entre os pescadores profissionais e ribeirinhos pelo direito de uso dos recursos. A escassa presença governamental na região tem contribuído para agravar esses conflitos. Na ausência do Governo, as organizações locais (comunidades ribeirinhas) estão desenvolvendo sistemas de manejo fora do sistema formal de gestão. Embora essas iniciativas tenham aspectos positivos e inovadores, faltam amparo legal, embasamento científico e mecanismos para integrá-las em um modelo para a gestão dos recursos naturais na várzea. 4. Escassez de sistemas de manejo. Embora haja vários estudos básicos sobre a ecologia de várzea (estrutura, funcionamento e biodiversidade), há uma escassez de estudos apli-cados e sistemas de manejo efetivos para esse ambiente. Como conseqüência, as práticas
This study examines the economic and spatial impacts of afforestation choices for carbon sequestration in Ontario, Canada when the non-permanence of forestry carbon offsets is taken into consideration. We test six scenarios including three long-term projects with red pine, Norway spruce and hybrid poplar plantations and three shorter term hybrid poplar scenarios that produce temporary carbon emission offsets. We convert the break-even costs of sequestering carbon to a permanent carbon offset equivalent and analyze the possible geographical implications of the choices across eastern, southern and central Ontario, Canada.
Los socio-ecosistemas forestales vascos tienen un elevado potencial para garantizar el mantenimiento de las funciones y servicios de sus ecosistemas, y por lo tanto, para ayudar en la mitigación del cambio climático y global. Estos ecosistemas forestales ocupan más de la mitad del territorio, con dominio de las plantaciones de coníferas, si bien es cierto que en los últimos diez años se observa una tendencia de aumento tanto de los bosques naturales, como de las plantaciones de eucalipto. A fin de orientar las decisiones presentes que ayuden en la búsqueda conjunta de soluciones positivas de cara al futuro, es importante fomentar procesos de gestión democrática y participativa.
Author begins by deducing a set of restrictions on option pricing formulas from the assumption that investors prefer more to less. These restrictions are necessary conditions for a formula to be consistent with a rational pricing theory. Attention is given to the problems created when dividends are paid on the underlying common stock and when the terms of the option contract can be changed explicitly by a change in exercise price or implicitly by a shift in the investment or capital structure policy of the firm. Since the deduced restrictions are not sufficient to uniquely determine an option pricing formula, additional assumptions are introduced to examine and extend the seminal Black-Scholes theory of option pricing. Explicit formulas for pricing both call and put options as well as for warrants and the new ″down-and-out″ option are derived. Other results.
Forest-based activities can mitigate climate change by reducing carbon sources and enhancing carbon sinks. Under vari-ous emissions-reductions programs, credits (called carbon offsets) can be issued to forestry projects that can credibly demonstrate additional and lasting reductions in CO 2 emissions. The greatest potential for forest carbon offset projects currently exists in voluntary emissions reduction programs and markets, which, however, have a negligible value in the global carbon market. Unless their relevance can be proven, forestry-based carbon offset projects will play a minor role in compliance markets. This is mainly due to concerns about the additionality, permanence, and leakage of carbon offsets generated by forestry projects.
The scientific community, forest managers, environmental organizations, carbon-offset trading systems and policy-makers require tools to account for forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. In this paper we describe updates to the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) implemented over the past years. This model of carbon-dynamics implements a Tier 3 approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Good Practice Guidance for reporting on carbon stocks and carbon stock changes resulting from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). The CBM-CFS3 is a generic modelling framework that can be applied at the stand, landscape and national levels. The model provides a spatially referenced, hierarchical system for integrating datasets originating from different forest inventory and monitoring programs and includes a structure that allows for tracking of land areas by different land-use and land-use change classes. Ecosystem pools in CBM-CFS3 can be easily mapped to IPCC-defined pools and validated against field measurements. The model uses sophisticated algorithms for converting volume to biomass and explicitly simulates individual annual disturbance events (natural and anthropogenic). Several important scientific updates have been made to improve the representation of ecosystem structure and processes from previous versions of CBM-CFS. These include: (1) an expanded representation of dead organic matter and soil carbon, particularly standing dead trees, and a new algorithm for initializing these pools prior to simulation, (2) a change in the input data requirement for simulating growth from biomass to readily available merchantable volume curves, and new algorithms for converting volume to biomass, (3) improved prediction of belowground biomass, and (4) improved parameters for soil organic matter decay, fire, insect disturbances, and forest management. In addition, an operational-scale version of CBM-CFS3 is freely available and includes tools to import data in standard formats, including the output of several timber supply models that are commonly used in Canada. Although developed for Canadian forests, the flexible nature of the model has enabled it to be adapted for use in several other countries.
We report the draft genome of the black cottonwood tree, Populus trichocarpa. Integration of shotgun sequence assembly with genetic mapping enabled chromosome-scale reconstruction of the genome. More
than 45,000 putative protein-coding genes were identified. Analysis of the assembled genome revealed a whole-genome duplication
event; about 8000 pairs of duplicated genes from that event survived in the Populus genome. A second, older duplication event is indistinguishably coincident with the divergence of the Populus and Arabidopsis lineages. Nucleotide substitution, tandem gene duplication, and gross chromosomal rearrangement appear to proceed substantially
more slowly in Populus than in Arabidopsis. Populus has more protein-coding genes than Arabidopsis, ranging on average from 1.4 to 1.6 putative Populus homologs for each Arabidopsis gene. However, the relative frequency of protein domains in the two genomes is similar. Overrepresented exceptions in Populus include genes associated with lignocellulosic wall biosynthesis, meristem development, disease resistance, and metabolite
transport.
The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) is a framework for the dynamic accounting of carbon pools and fluxes in Canada's forest ecosystems and the forest product sector. The model structure, assumptions, and supporting databases are described. The model has been applied to estimate net ecosystem carbon fluxes for Canada's 404 Mha forest area for the period 1920-1989. Changes in disturbance regimes have affected the forest age class structure and increased the average forest age during the period 1920-1979. The resulting changes in dead organic matter and biomass carbon during this period were estimated with the model. In the last decade of the analysis, large increases in disturbances, primarily fire and insect damage, have resulted in a reduction in ecosystem carbon storage. The estimates of biomass pool sizes obtained are consistent with those of other studies, while dead organic matter carbon pool estimates remain somewhat uncertain. Sensitivity analysis of several sources of uncertainty indicate that the pattern of net changes in ecosystem carbon pools over the 70-yr period was hardly affected and that the numerical estimates changed by < 15%.
We have developed a spatial cost–benefit afforestation model that includes the tracking of five carbon pools. In this application we represent three possible afforestation strategies that could be implemented in Canada using plantations of hybrid poplar, hardwoods, and softwoods with average expected growth rates of 12–14, 5–7, and 5–7 m3· ha–1·year–1 respectively. The model provides spatially explicit insights into the cost effectiveness of afforestation as a carbon sequestration tool. Here we develop an elasticity metric and experiment to assess model sensitivity and use the results to make recommendations about research priorities. The most important biological variables across all scenarios include site suitability, which is related to refining the spatial estimates of potential yields, biomass to carbon ratios, and wood density. The most important economic variables include refinement and lowering of establishment costs and agricultural opportunity costs. Parameters that have a low impact on the break-even carbon price, suggesting refinements in knowledge in these areas would be relatively less beneficial, include decay rates for forest products, stand senescence age (the age when stand mortality reaches its maximum), bioenergy and pulpwood prices, and mean residual time for leaf litter. Less importance was also placed on the proportions of forest products in the total harvest and refining a fossil fuel substitution coefficient.
The rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere can be reduced by decreasing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels
and by increasing the net uptake (or reducing the net loss) of carbon in terrestrial (and aquatic) ecosystems. The Kyoto Protocol
addresses both the release and uptake of carbon. Canada is developing a National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and
Reporting System in support of its international obligations to report greenhouse gas sources and sinks. This system employs
forest-inventory data, growth and yield information, and statistics on natural disturbances, management actions and land-use
change to estimate forest carbon stocks, changes in carbon stocks, and emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. A key component of the system is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS). The model
is undergoing extensive revisions to enable analyses at four spatial scales (national, provincial, forest management unit
and stand) and in annual time steps. The model and the supporting databases can be used to assess carbon-stock changes between
1990 and the present, and to predict future carbon-stock changes based on scenarios of future disturbance rates and management
actions.
This study explores the economic attractiveness of afforestation as a strategy for the joint production of fibre, carbon storage and biosolids (treated municipal sewage sludge) disposal for municipalities in Southern and Central Ontario, Canada. We use a spatial, stochastic model, the Canadian Forest Service Afforestation Feasibility Model (CFS-AFM), to simulate a range of spatial biosolids application scenarios in hybrid poplar afforestation projects. Results suggest that such joint afforestation strategies could be financially attractive. Significant cost savings can be expected through decreases in transportation distances and avoided waste disposal fees. Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the effects of variations in critical model parameters on net present values. Our findings indicate that waste disposal savings from application of biosolids on hybrid poplar plantations combined with incentives for landowners to sequester carbon can easily compete with agricultural land rental values in some regions of Ontario. Social acceptance of this kind of activity, however, may be an impediment to adoption.
This study explores the economic feasibility of biomass for bioenergy from fast-growing hybrid poplar plantations established on agricultural lands in Canada. Using a spatial bio-economic afforestation feasibility model, we report break-even supply costs for two broad scenarios: first with only merchantable fibre having value and secondly, a “fibre-plus-carbon” scenario with carbon sequestered valued at $5 t−1 CO2−e. Five levels of biomass processing capacities were examined in each scenario (90, 230, 450, 1500 and 3000 ktonnes per year) using 241 settlements across Canada as potential locations for bioenergy facilities. Supply costs here include plantation establishment, maintenance, agricultural land rent, harvest and transportation to nearest community. In relative terms three geographic regions had the most promise: the northern Prairies, central Ontario and parts of the Maritime Provinces. Smaller-scale bioenergy projects were attractive for Eastern Canada (Ontario and the Maritimes). The Prairie Provinces were most attractive for larger facilities with break-even supply costs exceeding 5$ GJ−1. Adding carbon incentives at 5$ t−1 CO2 decreases average costs of delivered biomass by 0.57–1.38$ GJ−1; however, these cost estimates are still above the current delivered costs of sub-bituminous coal.
This study explores the economic feasibility of several long-rotation afforestation scenarios for southern Ontario, Canada. Three species, red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.), Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) are examined. We integrate growth and yield models, site suitability maps, and several management scenarios to investigate the investment attractiveness of these species inclusive and exclusive of carbon sequestration values. We report net present values (NPV), internal rates of return (IRR) and two break-even price metrics. For wood value only scenarios the IRRs range from 4.3 to 4.6% for red pine and 3.4–3.6% for Norway spruce (for the most attractive 10,000 ha, in a single rotation scenario). Black walnut had rates of return 3.5–3.7% for the most attractive 10,000 ha area. Adding carbon valued at Cdn $3.4 per metric ton CO2 − e (roughly 2005 prices in the Chicago Climate Exchange) increases rates of return by about 0.6% for red pine and Norway spruce and 0.4% for black walnut scenarios. Perhaps surprisingly these returns are comparable and better than 20-year rotation hybrid poplar plantations. To achieve a 6% real rate of return break-even carbon prices were $10.7/t CO2 − e for red pine, $12.6/t CO2 − e for Norway spruce and $17.2/t CO2 − e for black walnut (again for the “best” 10,000 ha). Although somewhat unremarkable, the results suggest that these longer-rotation species may be a better investment than perhaps previously expected if landowners have the appropriate site conditions.
With concern over human activities affecting the Earth's climate, the potential role of forests to sequester carbon is of growing interest to national policy-makers. Countries like Canada may be able to use afforestation of marginal agricultural lands to sequester carbon in a cost-effective manner. A spatial simulation study that links the biology and economics of afforestation of marginal agricultural lands in Canada using a modified Hartman-type model is presented. The model recognizes wood production and carbon sequestration and calculates ‘break-even’ carbon prices inclusive of an opportunity cost for agricultural production values. A simplified carbon budget-tracking algorithm is used that predicts accumulation of carbon in soil, litter, standing aboveground and root biomass, carbon flows among ecosystem components and CO2 release from biomass and forest products decay. Variables are represented as probability distribution functions. Monte-Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis techniques are used to help assess both biological and economic uncertainty. Some results are presented for Canada and issues identified to improve model results (e.g. spatially varying estimates of productivity). Substantively more land is attractive for afforestation in Western Canada than Eastern Canada but results are highly sensitive to growth and yield assumptions and spatial variation in agricultural production opportunity costs.
If options are correctly priced in the market, it should not be possible to make sure profits by creating portfolios of long and short positions in options and their underlying stocks. Using this principle, a theoretical valuation formula for options is derived. Since almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as combinations of options, the formula and the analysis that led to it are also applicable to corporate liabilities such as common stock, corporate bonds, and warrants. In particular, the formula can be used to derive the discount that should be applied to a corporate bond because of the possibility of default.
Afforestation is one of several possible mechanisms available to sequester carbon and help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations. We have developed a spatial Monte Carlo-based simulation model, Canadian Forest Service—Afforestation Feasibility Model (CFS-AFM) to help assess the financial attractiveness of afforestation as a means of carbon storage in Canada. The model tracks five carbon pools and simulates costs and benefits of plantation investments. In this paper we simulate three afforestation scenarios that could be used in Canada; plantations using hybrid poplar, hardwoods, and softwoods with average growth rates of 14 and 6–7 m³/ha/year, respectively. The attractiveness of afforestation is driven by regional cost and plantation productivity variation and carbon price expectations. The results indicate that afforestation would be an attractive investment in many areas of the country at carbon prices of $10 per metric ton of CO2 or higher. However, with a zero carbon price, very little afforestation would be financially viable. Thus, with low carbon price expectations, other co-benefits may be required to make afforestation more attractive to Canadian investors.
Review of best practices for tree planting on marginal lands in Ontario
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Fuzzylogic modeling of land suitability for hybrid poplar across the Prairie Provinces of Alberta
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Afforestation of wildlands: a practical guide
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Afforestation guidelines for the Prairie Provinces
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