Mediaberichtgeving over calamiteiten: De Magie meester?

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Authorities are increasingly challenged by the globalised media to improve their way of communication to the public. This applies particularly for the management of calamities. In the past government was acting at the top of the information pyramid, but this is no longer the case. Professionals and citizens have become more self reliant and active in collecting information. The hierarchical communication structure has been replaced by a network structure. In case the government is not handling this changed situation adequately it is likely to result in loss of authority and of communication efficiency. In this paper results are presented of two studies carried out in the period 2005-2007 involving in total 110 calamities. The general purpose of the study was to analyze the changing communication landscape of risks and calamities in order to provide government authorities with recommendations to improve communication effectiveness e.g. by applying communication instruments adapted to the new situation. In this context the predictability of the size of the media attention for a calamity has been assessed. If media attention can be predicted in an early phase of the calamity this will provide extra reaction time to authorities and may help to e.g. nominate a spokesperson at the right level from the beginning. The results show that media attention can be reasonably well predicted on the basis of a limited number of criteria. Powerful predictive criteria are e.g. economic damage, number of evacuated people, and a general criterion called the magic factor. This is a container criterion including aspects such as newness, hugeness and related aspects which have as common denominator that they stimulate imagination and have a highly emotional content. Although the study focused on external safety calamities the predictive methodology is also applicable for other types of calamities which have similar time-space characteristics, such as terrorist attacks. Media will however never be completely predictable. Therefore intuition, local expertise, and repeated assessment of the likely media attention are needed to come to a reliable overall judgement.

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Het publieke debat wordt beheerst door angst voor extreme dreigingen als klimaatverandering of terrorisme, maar ook ‘kleinere’ zorgen roepen veel emotie op. De overheid wordt continu aangespoord om ervoor te zorgen dat ‘het’ nooit (meer) gebeurt. Dit boek biedt een nieuw perspectief op deze ‘cultuur van angst’ en haar soms utopische veiligheidseisen. In de ‘voorzorgcultuur’ staat het voorzorgbeginsel centraal, dat inhoudt dat het ontbreken van bewijs van schadelijkheid geen reden is om geen beschermende maatregelen te nemen. Met de focus op voorzorg gaat de aandacht vooral uit naar de bedreiging van milieu en gezondheid door technologie en industrie. Het voorzorgbeleid dat in het milieurecht ontwikkeld is, blijkt echter ook aanwijsbaar in onze bezorgdheid over publieke veiligheid. Na een beschrijving van de ontwikkeling van de voorzorgcultuur wordt een kritische analyse geleverd. Op basis daarvan worden enkele voorstellen gedaan, die kunnen bevorderen dat bij het ontwikkelen van voorzorgbeleid meer rekening gehouden wordt met de negatieve bijwerkingen van dat beleid zelf.
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Chapter 1 introduces two paradigms used in the governance of security--one based on punishment and the other on risk. The main argument of the book is that the governance of security in modern society is increasingly oriented around the paradigm of risk. In chapter 2, the authors outline the eight general dimensions of governance and illustrate how the governance of security in contemporary societies has been changing along each of these dimensions. Understanding these changes requires an understanding that the distinctions commonly made between “public” and “private” spheres are increasingly problematic. Chapter 3 explores the role of punishment in the governance of security. The authors examine the punishment mentality and argue that this mentality is grounded in past events, emphasizes coercive physical force, and involves direct governance through the state. Chapter 4 focuses on the modern police institution, arguing that while the institutions and technologies of policing have changed, it is still linked to the underlying mentality of punishment. This chapter also explores the recent shift from punishment-centered to problem-oriented modes of security governance. Chapter 5 explores how risk management has developed with the corporate sector, including an examination of its philosophy, techniques, and practices. Chapter 6 illustrates how Zero-Tolerance Policing (ZTP) is informed by the old punishment paradigm while at the same time displaying key elements of the new risk paradigm. They focus on a single example--ZTP in Middlesbrough, England. Chapter 7 reviews some of the key changes in security governance by focusing on Britain as an exemplar of “the new security governance.” The final chapter presents the model of “nodal governance,” using the Zwelethemba model as an example of how a nodal approach can restructure relations between security and justice. Nodal approaches to security governance are becoming more apparent and deserve serious consideration.
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This is a survey of research on how media influence risk perception. Media are diverse in content, and often not as biased in their (news) reporting as is commonly thought. Although many take media's influence for granted, the evidence points the other way: even for heavy media users, media are probably not a strong causal factor in (especially not personal) risk perception. Risk perception may be affected by the media via availability (more information gives a stronger effect), but the effects are lessened by impersonal impact: general risk perception is more easily changed than personal risk perception. Risk perception is often thought to cause behaviour, but this is still uncertain, and caution is necessary as to this possible connection.
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This article reviews the main approaches to risk in psychology and sociology and considers recent developments. It shows that research continues from a wide range of perspectives. Some developments in psychological thinking have recently acknowledged the importance of the cultural framing of risk perceptions and responses and the positive power of emotions to manage uncertainties, while some streams of work in sociology have moved toward more individualist approaches. These converging processes open opportunities for cross-fertilization and for using insights from both disciplines in the development of research.
This is a highly innovative and stimulating work with the outline of an entirely new approach to massive and rapid shifts in opinion and communication. It discusses and explains such mysterious phenomena as sudden crazes and crashes, fads and fashion, hypes and manias, moral outrage and protests, gossip and rumors, and scares and panics. Rich in alternative insights, the book is divided into four parts. Part I discusses the points of departure: the most relevant processes of opinion formation and communication. Part II is about phenomena on three different levels, that have traditionally been studied within the twin fields of mass psychology and collective behavior sociology. Part III focuses on the three prime forms of "emotional coloring" of opinion currents and public moods. Part IV discusses a combination of some of the aforementioned phenomena: successive crazes and crashes in financial markets, and looks at why technological and economic, and social and opinion forecasts often fail so miserably. The audience for this book includes students of social and mass psychology, social movements and collective behavior sociology, and opinion and communication in general. Professionals in public relations, marketing, health, finance, and politics, as well as the educated lay audience, will also find this book of interest. © 2003 by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.
In het artikel wordt een promotieonderzoek naar de uitkomsten van de behandeling in de justitiële jeugdinrichting Den Engh tegen het licht gehouden. De vraag is: Weten we of de aanpak zoals toegepast in Den Engh effectief is? Het antwoord is ondubbelzinnig ‘nee’. De veel te weinig in de internationale onderzoeksliteratuur ingekaderde opvoedings- en behandelingsaanpak, het gekozen onderzoeksdesign (geen controle- of vergelijkingsgroep), de zeer beperkte dataset (focus op attitudes, vrijwel geen variabelen voor gedragsmatig en psychosociaal functioneren; daarnaast geen data met betrekking tot de feitelijk toegepaste interventies per jongere), resultaten die ‘gebiased’ zijn (sociale wenselijkheid), en de selectieve rapportage (‘uitvallers’ ontbreken) maken dat we met 'Niet opsluiten, maar opvoeden' niet veel wijzer zijn geworden.
Evaluation studies vary in methodological quality. It is essential to develop methodological quality standards for evaluation research that can be understood and easily used by scholars, practitioners, policy makers, the mass media, and systematic reviewers. This article proposes that such standards should be based on statistical conclusion validity, internal validity, construct validity, external validity, and descriptive validity. Methodological quality scales are reviewed, and it is argued that efforts should be made to improve them. Pawson and Tilley's challenge to the Campbell evaluation tradition is also assessed. It is concluded that this challenge does not have any implications for methodological quality standards, because the Campbell tradition already emphasizes the need to study moderators and mediators in evaluation research.
One of the most perplexing problems in risk analysis is why some relatively minor risks or risk events, as assessed by technical experts, often elicit strong public concerns and result in substantial impacts upon society and economy. This article sets forth a conceptual framework that seeks to link systematically the technical assessment of risk with psychological, sociological, and cultural perspectives of risk perception and risk-related behavior. The main thesis is that hazards interact with psychological, social, institutional, and cultural processes in ways that may amplify or attenuate public responses to the risk or risk event. A structural description of the social amplification of risk is now possible. Amplification occurs at two stages: in the transfer of information about the risk, and in the response mechanisms of society. Signals about risk are processed by individual and social amplification stations, including the scientist who communicates the risk assessment, the news media, cultural groups, interpersonal networks, and others. Key steps of amplifications can be identified at each stage. The amplified risk leads to behavioral responses, which, in turn, result in secondary impacts. Models are presented that portray the elements and linkages in the proposed conceptual framework.
This paper seeks to analyse and make sense of the growing role and implications of forms of ‘contractual governance’ that are emerging in diverse fields of social life and public policy in England and Wales, both within and beyond criminal justice. Collectively, these modes of control mimic and deploy ‘contracts' and ‘agreement’ in the regulation of deviant conduct and disorderly behaviour. The rise of contractual governance is explored against the background of a crisis in penal modernism and the challenge of crime prevention. Contractual governance in a number of fields is outlined and discussed, including home-school agreements in education; acceptable behaviour contracts and introductory tenancies in social housing; restrictive covenants in private residential neighbourhoods; domestic security and private residential patrols and youth offender contracts. It will be argued that, in these contexts, contracts seek to induce conformity and order through modes of governing the future that depart significantly from traditional modes of policing and that recast social obligations in forms of parochial control.
In het kader van het beleid inzake patiëntveiligheid wordt elk Nederlands ziekenhuis per 2008 geacht te beschikken over een zogenaamd veiligheidsmanagementsysteem (VMS). Een onderdeel van dit VMS wordt gevormd door de regeling voor het melden en analyseren van incidenten. Dit wordt gezien als een belangrijk instrument voor de verbetering van de kwaliteit en veiligheid van de zorg. Hieraan ligt de ervaring ten grondslag dat veel incidenten eerder het gevolg zijn van systeemfouten dan van individuele nalatigheid. Alom wordt benadrukt dat meldingsprocedures met een kwaliteitsdoelstelling ‘veilig’ moeten zijn, dat wil zeggen dat de melding als zodanig niet wordt gebruikt om maatregelen te nemen tegen de melder of tegen andere betrokkenen bij het incident.
The 1990s has seen the growth of the Internet with a take-up faster than any previous technology, with one billion users soon worldwide. The dealings of foreign exchange that occur each day are worth $1.4 trillion, sixty times greater than the amount of world trade. Communications “on the move” are being transformed with new mobile phones more common in the world than conventional landline phones. There are over 700 million legal international journeys each year, a figure soon to pass 1 billion. Three million people across the world receive the same total income as the richest 300. Globally branded companies have budgets greater than most individual countries. Images of the blue earth from space or the golden arches of McDonald’s are ubiquitous upon the billion TV sets across the world. New technologies are producing “global times” with distances between places and peoples “dematerializing” it seems.
Allereerst wil ik aangeven dat ik zeer vereerd ben dat ik de derde Henk Leenen-lezing heb mogen uitspreken. Vereerd omdat Henk een origineel denker was en grondlegger van het gezondheidsrecht. Maar ook vereerd omdat hij mijn promotor was en daarna een persoonlijke vriend is geworden.
These are social epidemics, and the moment when they take off, when they reach their critical mass, is the Tipping Point.
In dit proefschrift wordt longitudinaal de ontwikkeling van de houding ten opzichte van sociale grenzen en van gedrag onderzocht van pupillen uit RIJ Den Engh en van ‘normale’ jongeren op VMBO, HAVO en VWO. Vervolgens wordt een verband gezocht tussen deze ontwikkeling bij de pupillen en het vaststaande heropvoedingsprogramma van RIJ Den Engh en daarnaast tussen die van de leerlingen en de veranderende opvoeding van hun ouders. Tot slot wordt een voorzichtige poging gedaan de invloeden van beide opvoedingswijzen te vergelijken wat betreft de genoemde ontwikkeling. De SGS-methode van Den Engh lijkt een stagnerende werking te hebben betreffende de houding en het gedrag van de (ex-)pupillen. Het verbetert niet significant na verblijf, maar verslechtert ook niet. De recidive op basis van justitiële gegevens lijkt gelijk te zijn aan landelijke cijfers; die van specifiek de groep Veelplegers lijkt zelfs lager. Een positievere houding en minder probleemgedrag bij de leerlingen blijken samen te gaan met een afname in opvoedingsactiviteit van hun ouders gedurende de puberteit. Andere omgevingsinvloeden dan de ouders lijken op de jongeren in te werken, maar niet ten ongunste. Wanneer de opvoedingscontexten vergeleken worden (vaststaand versus flexibel), blijkt de houding van de twee groepen jongeren de gehele periode nauwelijks van elkaar te verschillen en blijkt het gedrag uiteindelijk positief overeen te komen. Overigens blijkt steeds dat nauwelijks verschillen bestaan tussen PIJ’ers en OTS’ers op Den Engh. Gepleit wordt voor een herziening van de criteria voor het opleggen van een OTS, om de gedragsproblematische jongeren van de beschermingbehoeftige te onderscheiden.
Den Engh is een rijksinrichting waar opvoeding en behandeling worden geboden aan jongens in de leeftijd van 12 tot 23 jaar. Het betreft jongens die door gedragsproblemen en/of door het plegen van delicten in de samenleving niet langer kunnen worden gehandhaafd. Aan hun plaatsing op Den Engh ligt een civielrechtelijke of strafrechtelijke iustitiële maatregel ten grondslag. Dergelijke maatregelen kunnen door een rechter worden uitgesproken in het kader van het civielrechtelijk en strafrechtelijk jeugdrecht. In dat verband treedt de overheid in de (opvoedings)bevoegdheden en verantwoordelijkheden die ouders wettelijk toekomen. ... Zie: Samenvatting.
The past 30 years have seen vast changes in our attitudes toward crime. More and more of us live in gated communities; prison populations have skyrocketed; and issues such as racial profiling, community policing, and "zero-tolerance" policies dominate the headlines. How is it that our response to crime and our sense of criminal justice has come to be so dramatically reconfigured? David Garland charts the changes in crime and criminal justice in America and Britain over the past twenty-five years, showing how they have been shaped by two underlying social forces: the distinctive social organization of late modernity and the neoconservative politics that came to dominate the United States and the United Kingdom in the 1980s. Garland explains how the new policies of crime and punishment, welfare and security—and the changing class, race, and gender relations that underpin them—are linked to the fundamental problems of governing contemporary societies, as states, corporations, and private citizens grapple with a volatile economy and a culture that combines expanded personal freedom with relaxed social controls. It is the risky, unfixed character of modern life that underlies our accelerating concern with control and crime control in particular. It is not just crime that has changed; society has changed as well, and this transformation has reshaped criminological thought, public policy, and the cultural meaning of crime and criminals. David Garland's The Culture of Control offers a brilliant guide to this process and its still-reverberating consequences.
Discussions are taking place both in the United States and in Europe about how governments should respond to both disasters and crises, and how citizens' non-desirable behaviour might be managed with respect to such disasters. Here we examine the role that risk attitudes and risk perceptions play in decision making behaviour of individuals in times of crises and disasters and how knowledge about individual behaviour and its drivers may be helpful when developing policy. The proposed framework complements the existing literature, thereby further enriching the knowledge of crises and disaster management.
Research studies have validated an epidemic of grossly underreported, preventable injuries due to medical management. Recent policy documents have placed high priority on improving incident reporting as the first step in addressing patient injuries, and have called for translation of lessons from other industries. Complex non-medical industries have evolved incident reporting systems that focus on near misses, provide incentives for voluntary reporting, ensure confidentiality while bolstering accountability, and emphasise perspectives of systems in data collection, analysis, and improvement. Reporting of near misses offers numerous benefits over adverse events: greater frequency allowing quantitative analysis; fewer barriers to data collection; limited liability; and recovery patterns that can be captured, studied, and used for improvement. Education and engagement of all stakeholders of health care and negotiation of their conflicting goals will be necessary to change the balance of barrier incentives in favour of implementing reporting systems.
Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept "risk" and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach--one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase the legitimacy and public acceptance of the resulting decisions.
Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.
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