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Towards a Strategy for Economic Growth in Uruguay
Abstract
The Uruguayan economy is recovering from the 2002 financial crisis that disrupted its banking system, caused a collapse of its currency and seriously affected its fiscal solvency. The crisis was clearly associated with the collapse of the Argentine economy and its concomitant currency, banking and debt crises. Both were also related to the sudden stop that followed the Russian crisis of 1998, which prompted an important realignment of the real in January 1999, a fact that had exerted enormous pressure on bilateral exchange rates within Mercosur. In this post-crisis period, Uruguay now faces several challenges to attain a sustainable growth path. This report proposes a series of recommendations towards this end. Implementing a strategy to accelerate growth inevitably involves interventions at both the macro and the micro level. The macro level involves the maintenance of a stable and competitive real exchange rate, so as to create a stable and encouraging environment for export growth. The authors take up each of these elements of the growth strategy. They first focus on the design of incentive policies for economic diversification and promotion. Then they discuss next the macroeconomic complements, with special emphasis on maintaining a competitive and stable real exchange rate.
... The new policies were successful in accelerating growth and stabilizing the economy as can be seen in The exchange rate played a major role in the performance of both the Uruguayan and Paraguayan economies during the analyzed period, cross-cutting the different growth periods just described. As discussed in Hausmann, Rodriguez-Clare and Rodrik (2005), real exchange rate cycles have been a recurring feature of the Uruguayan economy since the 1970s. As shown in Figure B.5, the collapse of economic growth in 1982 was followed by the depreciation of the peso. ...
... This pattern seems to be repeating after 2000, with devaluation of the peso and rapid growth after the 2002 crisis, rapid appreciation after 2005 and a slowing down of growth after 2011. According to Hausmann, Rodriguez-Clare and Rodrik (2005), the eventual appreciation of the real exchange rate in Uruguay has served to choke off tradable activities, rendering growth less sustainable and more susceptible to negative shocks. ...
This study looks at the performance of livestock production in Uruguay and Paraguay, analyzing two situations with different implications for development: the displacement of livestock by soybean production as occurred in Uruguay and in the Eastern region of Paraguay, and the expansion of the agricultural frontier in western Paraguay through deforestation. In the case of Uruguay, and despite being displaced to lower-quality land, the livestock sector has seen a historical increase in output and productivity between 2002 and 2006 as the result of rapid growth in beef and milk production and a reduction of sheep stocks to historical lows. This growth was driven by changes in nutrition, mostly due to an increase in the area under cultivated pasture during the second half of the 1990s, the use of grain and supplements associated to dairy production, and more recently, by intensive fattening of cattle. Improved nutrition resulted in a reduction in the slaughter age of steers, an increase in the offtake rate and a larger contribution of dairy to total output. In the case of Paraguay, beef production more than doubled between 2005 and 2016, driven by productivity growth which increased by 70 percent during this period. The expansion of soybean production in the Eastern region after 2006 displaced livestock to the Western Region of Chaco. In this new environment, the adoption of high yielding varieties of tropical pastures together with improved animal genetics were the main factors behind increased productivity. Despite these positive developments, livestock sectors in Uruguay and Paraguay still face major challenges to sustain growth in the future. In the case of Uruguay, the challenge is to accelerate and sustain TFP growth, which stagnated again after 2006. For Paraguay, challenges for future development are those related to the environment, as future expansion of production will continue to take place into forest land in the Chaco region. Although the introduction of cultivated pastures has increased productivity and reduced emissions per unit of output both in Uruguay and Paraguay, in the case of Paraguay, increased production, a growing animal stock and deforestation will continue to increase GHG emissions and will require greater control in the use of natural resources and new technological developments to increase environmental efficiency of livestock production.
... The starting point and underlying approach of the study can be conveniently summarized in the following statements by Hausmann, Rodriguez-Clare, and Rodrik (2005): ...
... Consequently markets underprovide entrepreneurship in new activities." (Hausmann, Rodriguez-Clare, and Rodrik, 2005). ...
This paper consists of four case studies of the emergence of four successful export activities in Uruguay: computer software, forest products, caviar and sturgeon meat, and animal vaccines. Each case study discusses how companies, associations, and governments at various levels have addressed market failures and facilitated the provision of public goods necessary for each activity. The case studies additionally profile first movers in each activity and describe the positive externalities they provide to imitators, particularly diffusion of export knowledge. Also included in each case study is a counterfactual case of a less successful activity (electronics, wine, frog meat, and biotechnology, respectively) and a section on policy implications.
... Table 1 summarizes the country's industrial policies. More recently, Hausmann, Rodríguez-Clare and Rodrik (2005) analyze the scope for new growth opportunities in Uruguay in the context of "self-discovery," that is, the development of new products and processes tailored to export growth. 4 That work, a significant improvement over the IDB study of 2001, constitutes the basis for our present project. ...
... Briefly, Hausmann, Rodríguez-Clare and Rodrik (2005) find an adequate institutional environment for productive development. However, they note that the country's Industrial Promotion Legislation remains neutral in regard to new investment opportunities and creates incentives for activities with few demonstration effects (i.e., non-tradables), which in their opinion, constitutes a major drawback for self-discovery and growth. ...
This paper reviews and assesses some of the Productive Development Policies currently being implemented in Uruguay. Three horizontal and three vertical policies are considered in light of the market and public failures they attempt to address and minimize. Horizontal policies comprise Innovation, Industrial Promotion and Directives for Industrial and Technological Development. Vertical policies include the analysis of Forestry Law, Meat Traceability and the Sustainable Production Project in the agricultural sector.
... The starting point and underlying approach of the study can be conveniently summarized in the following statements by Hausmann, Rodriguez-Clare, and Rodrik (2005): ...
... Consequently markets underprovide entrepreneurship in new activities." (Hausmann, Rodriguez-Clare, and Rodrik, 2005). ...
En este trabajo se presenta el an�lisis de cuatro casos espec�ficos de surgimiento de cuatro actividades de exportaci�n exitosas de Uruguay: software de computaci�n, productos madereros, caviar y carne de esturi�n, y vacunas para animales. En cada uno de esos casos espec�ficos se trata c�mo empresas, asociaciones y varios gobiernos a varios niveles han manejado crisis de mercado y facilitado el suministro de los bienes p�blicos necesarios para cada actividad. El an�lisis de estos casos espec�ficos presenta adem�s una descripci�n de las caracter�sticas de los actores principales en cada ramo de actividad as� como las externalidades positivas que brindan a los emuladores, especialmente la difusi�n de conocimientos sobre exportaci�n. Tambi�n se presenta en cada �rea un caso opuesto de actividad menos exitosa (electr�nica, vino, carne de rana y biotecnolog�a, respectivamente) as� como una secci�n sobre implicaciones de pol�ticas.
... Government initiatives may include the establishment of special economic zones (SEZs) such as export processing zones or industrial and technology parks, which offer a range of financial incentives (e.g., tax breaks, subsidies), infrastructure facilities (e.g., uninterrupted electricity supply) and access to land combined with the promise of protection from government interference (Hausmann, Rodríguez-Clare, and Rodrik 2005). Such public investment and policy/regulatory changes can induce a critical mass of private firms to enter and invest. ...
... (Sosa 2010). The crisis disrupted the Uruguayan banking system and caused the collapse of its currency, generating a credit crunch and a steep contraction of GDP (IMF 2003;Hausmann et al. 2005). From 2000 to 2002, average annual GDP growth was -4.5 per cent and the rate of GDP per capita annual growth was, on average, -4.7 per cent. ...
... (Sosa 2010). The crisis disrupted the Uruguayan banking system and caused the collapse of its currency, generating a credit crunch and a steep contraction of GDP (IMF 2003;Hausmann et al. 2005). From 2000 to 2002, average annual GDP growth was -4.5 per cent and the rate of GDP per capita annual growth was, on average, -4.7 per cent. ...
The Uruguayan story was one of declines in the early years of the 2000s in most indicators, followed by improvements in all of them. Economic growth was negative in the early years due to a severe economic crisis, positive and rapid thereafter except during the international crisis of 2008. Most labour indicators followed the same U-shaped pattern and were in 2012 at a better level than at the beginning of the decade, with the exceptions of labour earnings and some poverty indicators. The international crisis of 2008 slowed or stopped temporarily the improvements in some labour market indicators.
... Lo inverso sucede con una depreciación real. En el sector no transable, sin embargo, tiende a existir una correlación positiva entre movimientos de precios y costos, lo cual hace que las ganancias sean más estables frente a movimientos del TCR (Hausmann, Rodríguez y Rodrik, 2005). nota positiva es que hay mayores recursos y que, por lo tanto, hay posibilidades de utilizar parte de los mismos para aumentar la productividad de la economía, aunque este proceso no es automático. ...
Durante los años noventa las economías de América Latina y el Caribe fueron escenario de un conjunto de reformas estructurales y de nuevas orientaciones de política económica. En ese periodo, las economías de la región no pudieron generar las condiciones para crecer sostenidamente en el contexto de una economía abierta. Este documento se centra en un conjunto acotado de factores, restringiendo el análisis al impacto sobre el crecimiento del comercio internacional y la inversión directa, para terminar con una discusión sobre la importancia de las políticas productivas en el proceso de crecimiento. Este artículo fue presentado en la Conferencia Anual LAEBA que tuvo lugar en Buenos Aires, Argentina, el 28 y 29 noviembre de 2005.
... Lo opuesto sucede en el caso de una depreciación real. En el sector no transable, sin embargo, tiende a existir una correlación positiva entre movimientos de precios y costos, lo cual contribuye a la estabilidad de las ganancias frente a los movimientos del tipo de cambio real (Hausmann, Rodríguez y Rodrik, 2005). del tipo de cambio puede dar lugar a presiones inflacionarias. ...
... We develop a theoretical framework that takes elements from the pioneer-diffusion model of Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) and Hausmann, Rodríguez-Clare and Rodrik (2004). As in that model, our framework emphasizes the existence of an uncertainty environment surrounding domestic firms before a new activity -in our case exporting -has taken place. ...
This paper surveys four Argentinean industries — light ships, television programs, wines, and wooden furniture — that have experienced substantial export growth in recent years, particularly to developed countries. The case studies first describe the structure of the industries, then characterize the emergence of export pioneers and the subsequent process of diffusion. Finally, they analyze the role played by public institutions. Across sectors, the appearance of a pioneer is largely explained by a knowledge advantage relative to other industry participants regarding foreign markets, which the pioneer acquired previously and independently of his decision to export. Diffusion occurs across as well as within sectors, as pioneers’ knowledge is relevant to other industries. Since diffusion does not necessarily hurt the pioneer, public policy has a potentially important role in fostering diffusion within and across sectors.
... In the software sector, the investment of Tata Consulting in Zonamerica to establish a development centre for its activities in Latin America holds a great potential as demonstration effect for other outsourcing activities. As is well known, attracting FDI may be an effective way to bring in foreign technology, to increase the quality of domestic suppliers through backward linkages, or to induce local production of an advanced intermediate good by a foreign firm (Rodriguez-Clare, 2005). However, considering the national economy in general, FDI has still a limited impact in Uruguay and actions to promote investment in new activities have not been undertaken systematically or under the guidance of a strategic vision. ...
El proyecto “El surgimiento de nuevas actividades exportadoras exitosas en América Latina” busca identificar los elementos claves en el proceso de descubrimiento de nuevas oportunidades de exportación en diferentes países de la región, con el objetivo de proponer políticas y reformas que permitan aumentar el ritmo de descubrimientos, en particular teniendo en cuenta la importancia relativa de diversas fallas de mercado. El enfoque general del estudio puede resumirse en que “los mercados se desempeñan bien al brindar señales de la rentabilidad de actividades que ya existen, pero su desempeño es pobre cuando se trata de actividades que podrían existir pero no existen. Aun si estas actividades no son nuevas en el sentido de que están presentes en economías más ricas, los productores se ven enfrentados a una considerable incertidumbre respecto a los costos y la productividad bajo las condiciones del mercado local. Introducirse en estos nuevos sectores típicamente requiere un inversor pionero, que indica a otros la rentabilidad de dichas actividades. Llamamos a este proceso de descubrir la estructura de costos interna de la economía auto-descubrimiento” (Hausmann y Rodrik, 2003). “En el proceso de auto-descubrimiento abundan las externalidades de información, debido a que la información de costos descubierta por un empresario no puede conservarse en forma privada. Si la empresa pionera resulta rentable, esto es fácilmente observable por otros. Los imitadores entran entonces en la actividad, la renta del productor establecido se disipa y se establece un nuevo sector. Si, por el contrario, el pionero quiebra, las pérdidas son soportadas en su totalidad por el empresario. En consecuencia, la actividad empresarial de esta naturaleza no es una actividad con alta recompensa: las pérdidas son privadas mientras las ganancias se socializan. Por tanto, los mercados no proporcionan suficiente actividad empresarial en actividades nuevas” (Hausmann, Rod
Se busca determinar si las posturas políticas de las instituciones agropecuarias en el debate de la Constitución de 1918 generaron efectos positivos para el sector agropecuario. Para ello se analizan las instituciones internas de las empresas agropecuarias, las gremiales que representan al conjunto de las anteriores y las económicas, contrastándolas con los grandes bloques políticos que se presentaron al debate.Las principales conclusiones muestran que existen fallas para trasladar la racionalidad individual a la gremial y de esta a la política económica, lo que genera efectos inconvenientes para el sector. Estas fallas se explican por la mezcla de intereses de los empresarios de grandes superficies y su capacidad de imponer sus demandas en los espacios gremiales por sobre la gran masa de pequeños productores.
Governments are resource- and bandwidth-constrained, and hence need to prioritize productivity-enhancing policies. To do so requires information on the nature and magnitude of market failures on the one hand, and government's capacity to redress them successfully on the other. This article reviews perspectives on vertical (sectoral) and horizontal (factor markets, cluster) policies with a view to both criteria.We first argue that the case for either vertical or horizontal policies cannot be made on the basis of the likelihood of successful implementation: for instance, educational policies and "picking the winner" types of policies both run the risks of capture and incompetent execution. However, the economics profession has been able to establishmore convincingmarket failures for horizontal policies than for vertical policies. Most of the recent approaches to identifying failures around particular goods are of limited help. Hence, for a given difficulty of execution, the former are generally preferred. A second criticalmessage is that improving the quality of governance in terms of collecting information, coordination ability, and defending against capture is critical to the successful implementation of productivity policies and should be central on the policy agenda. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.
Ce chapitre a pour objectif de décrire quelques-unes des relations principales qui existent entre savoir et développement en Uruguay. La Sect. 5.1 résume l’évolution historique et la situation actuelle de ce petit pays périphérique qui affiche pourtant un haut niveau de développement humain. La Sect. 5.2 se concentre plus spécifiquement sur le système national d’innovation (SNI) uruguayen; organise les éléments empiriques au sein d’une approche théorique de l’étude des Systèmes d’innovation (SI) en utilisant des « modules constitutifs »; et étudie quelques-uns de ces modules. La Sect. 5.3 dresse une cartographie préliminaire du système universitaire uruguayen, en examinant les modules du SNI uruguayen qui s’y rapporte. Une attention particulière est portée à l’université de la république (UR), qui est de loin le plus grand établissement d’enseignement supérieur du pays. La Sect. 5.4 décrit le débat actuel au sujet de l’enseignement supérieur et ses ramifications hors du pays. La Sect. 5.5 esquisse les principales thématiques que pourront aborder les prochaines études, en lien avec la notion d’université évolutive.
Este artículo se inserta en el debate al respecto de los determinantes de la convergencia de los ingresos de los países y parte de la idea de que la estructura productiva es uno de los fundamentales para su explicación. En este sentido, se realiza un estudio comparativo sobre las potencialidades para el cambio estructural entre Uruguay y otros países que presentan una especialización similar a éste. Para esto se reinterpreta el Espacio del Producto creado por Hausmann y otros investigadores de la Universidad de Harvard, desde la visión de los trabajos más recientes de la CEPAL, que identifican en las capacidades tecnológicas una de los principales determinantes de las potencialidades de las estructuras productivas. La principal conclusión del trabajo es que Uruguay presenta diferentes potencialidades para el cambio estructural en comparación a un conjunto de países con estructuras productivas que, a priori, podían considerarse "similares" a la suya.
El objetivo de este documento es analizar la efectividad, los costos y los tiempos de las políticas gubernamentales, las instituciones, las leyes y regulaciones, y los procedimientos que afectan negativamente el clima de negocios en Uruguay. El propósito es resaltar los aspectos positivos que apoyan el clima de negocios en el país así como identificar los obstáculos más flagrantes que admitirían una solución en el corto plazo. El documento incluye una presentación de problemas y soluciones factibles que se podrían implementar en un tiempo razonable, aun teniendo en cuenta la gran restricción financiera y de deuda en la que actuará el Gobierno electo.
The failure to identify the returns to innovation in Latin America within the framework formalized in the CDM model has hampered a thorough comprehension of the phenomenon and hence the design of adequate policies to foster the activity. We here argue that the use of standard innovation output indicators is at the root of the poor performance of empirical models given their inability to properly account for new procedures and for the heterogeneous relevance of innovations. A methodology to build new indices is proposed and their improved comparative performance is shown using 2006 data on Uruguayan firms.
The stylized fact that there is no correlation between long-run economic growth and financial globalization has spawned a recent literature that purports to provide newer evidence and arguments in favor of financial globalization. We review this literature and find it unconvincing. The underlying assumptions in this literature are that developing countries are savings-constrained; that access to foreign finance alleviates this to boost investment and long-run growth; and that insofar as there are problems with financial globalization, these can be remedied through deep institutional reforms. In contrast, we argue that developing economies are as or more likely to be investment- than savings-constrained and that the effect of foreign finance is often to aggravate this investment constraint by appreciating the real exchange rate and reducing profitability and investment opportunities in the traded goods sector, which have adverse long-run growth consequences. It is time for a new paradigm on financial globalization, and one that recognizes that more is not necessarily better. Depending on context and country, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital inflows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective risk getting it badly wrong.IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 112–138. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.29; published online 6 January 2009
This paper presents a framework for guiding policy makers intervening in emerging innovation systems in 'catching up' countries. The process whereby the central policy issues are identified rests on the notion that there are seven key processes, or 'functions', involved in the formation of such systems and that these processes can be empirically studied. A 'functional approach' is argued to be helpful in finding 'system weaknesses' that can act as focussing mechanisms for policy makers. An illustrative case from Germany is followed by an analysis of emerging innovation systems in catching up countries, in particular Brazil, Korea and Chile.
This article is immerse in the debate over the determinants of countries income level convergence and states that the productive structure of a country is one of the most important of such determinants. A comparative study is performed, testing the potentiality for structural change, for Uruguay and nine other countries with a commercial specialization that may be considered similar between them. In order to do this, the article propone a new interpretation of the Product Space created by Hausmann and other Harvard University researchers, based upon the theoretical framework of the latest works of the ECLALC, which points at the technological capabilities as one of the most important causes of potentialities for a productive structure to modify itself. The article main conclusion is that Uruguay shows different potentialities for structural change that those countries with a similar specialization.
This paper assesses the institutional setting and productive impact of selected productive development policies (PDPs), institutions, and programs implemented in Peru during the period 1990-2007. The assessment is based on a simple, basic framework of a series of economic or market failures that may have constrained the transformation of the productive structure, the process of innovation, and the growth of total factor productivity. Evidence indicates that the PDPs and structural reforms implemented in Peru did not significantly alter the productive structure of the Peruvian economy. If the objectives of the PDPs are to transform the productive structure, increase total factor productivity, and enhance innovation, government interventions need to focus directly on the source of market failures and create quality productive changes within the private sector.
Econom�a 6.1 (2005) 1-42
The failure of market-oriented reforms to generate high and sustained growth in Latin America has led to the widespread agreement that such reforms should be complemented by other policies. The strategies to complement market-oriented reforms fall into three categories: macroeconomic policies to reduce the region's high vulnerability to crises; institutional and microeconomic reforms to improve the business climate and provide better foundations for growth; and microeconomic or competitiveness policies that include a broad range of government interventions to allow markets, sectors, and companies to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by market-oriented reforms. This paper focuses on the third strategy, which I henceforth refer to as one of microeconomic interventions.
Countries have engaged microeconomic interventions for decades. Since the switch to outward-oriented development strategies in the mid-1980s, the main such interventions have been aimed at promoting exports, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Another strategy that is receiving renewed interest is promoting inno-vation. These types of microeconomic intervention enjoy wide support and are encouraged by international institutions such as the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.
But the conceptual and empirical foundation for some of these interventions is not as solid as many people believe. For instance, it is hard to find a convincing theoretical argument in favor of policies to support SMEs. On the contrary, recent research suggests that such policies may have significant negative effects on aggregate productivity under some circumstances. Empirical research also fails to find evidence for the positive externalities from exports and FDI that form the basis for policies to promote these activities.
A more effective set of microeconomic interventions should specifically address the market failures that are important in the development process. Recent research suggests two kinds of market failures that may seriously hamper development. The first is related to externalities in the entrepreneurial process of discovering new profitable investment opportunities. The second is associated with coordination failures in taking the necessary actions to increase sectorwide productivity. This paper explores the latter market failures, their relation to clusters and agglomeration economies, and the set of microeconomic interventions that could be followed to deal with them.
The paper is organized as follows. The next section introduces the notion of coordination failures, their relevance to developing countries, and the circumstances under which they occur. The following section then argues that clusters can be seen as agglomerations of firms and organizations in related economic activities among which coordination failures are likely to arise. In other words, clusters provide opportunities for microeconomic interventions that promote coordination and collective action to improve productivity. The paper goes on to explain that although one may alternatively think of clusters as resulting from agglomeration economies, the notion of coordination failures is more useful for deriving appropriate policies to encourage clustering.
I explore this issue formally in a subsequent section, which presents a model of a small economy that is plagued by sector- or cluster-specific coordination failures. This section shows that, rather than trying to reallocate resources toward sectors that are seen as offering high clustering possibilities (as is the case with import substitution), policy should aim at fostering cooperation in sectors in which the economy is already showing comparative advantage.
Next, I discuss a particular application of these ideas to innovation policy. I argue that general policies to increase innovation across the board are likely to be inferior to policies that take the more selective approach of trying to induce the development of innovation clusters in areas of comparative advantage. Finally, I offer some suggestions on how these ideas about coordination failures and clusters can form the basis for a set of effective microeconomic interventions for middle-income countries.
A firm's productivity depends not only on its own efforts and abilities and on general economic conditions (such as the macroeconomic environment and the legal system), but also on the actions of other firms, infrastructure, and regulation and other public goods. The problem is that the provision of these inputs and services is plagued by market failures as a result...
This chapter aims at describing some main relations between knowledge and development in Uruguay. Section 5.1 summarizes
the historical evolution and actual situation of the small peripheral country with comparatively high levels of Human Development.
Section 5.2 focuses specifically on the Uruguayan National System of Innovation (NSI); organizes the empirical elements in
a theoretical approach to the study of Systems of Innovation (SIs) by means of “constructive modules”; and discusses some
of such modules. Section 5.3 offers a preliminary mapping of the Uruguayan Academic System, discussing the modules of the
Uruguayan NSI related to it; particular attention is paid to the University of the Republic (UR), by far the most important
institution of Higher Education in the country. Section 5.4 describes the current debate in Uruguay about Higher Education
and its external relations. Section 5.5 sketches main issues for future research, connected with the notion of Developmental
University.
The theoretical case for industrial policy is a strong one. The market failures which industrial policies target — in markets for credit, labor, products, and knowledge — have long been at the core of what development economists study. The conventional case against industrial policy rests on practical difficulties with its implementation. Even though the issues could in principle be settled by empirical evidence, the evidence to date remains uninformative. But the traditional informational and bureaucratic constraints on the exercise of industrial policy are not givens; they can be molded and rendered less binding through appropriate institutional design. Three key design attributes that industrial policy must possess are embeddedness, carrots-and-sticks, and accountability. A review of industrial policy in three non-Asian settings — El Salvador, Uruguay, and South Africa — highlights the extensive amount of industrial policy that is already being carried out and frames the need for industrial policy in the specific circumstances of individual countries. Some implications for the Middle East are discussed.
Several studies estimate TFP for the Uruguayan economy at an aggregate level (Bucacos,2000; Blyde et al, 2004; Fossati et al, 2005; De Brum, 2004). Though they use generally similar estimation methodologies they find contradictory evidence. In this paper we discuss possible explanations to these contradictions, and provide a decomposition exercise of the Uruguayan economy sources growth from a sectoral perspective, using Törnqvist indices for manufacturing between 1988-2005 and for some service sectors (commerce and repairs; restaurants and hotels; transport and communications) for the 1997-2005 period. For the agricultural sector we reproduce estimations by Arancet and Calvete (2003). We obtain evidence about heterogeneity in the productive performance of the country’s key economic sectors, suggesting that TFP had a larger growth contribution in tradable sectors –manufacturing and agriculture, more exposed to competition, than those domestically oriented. The service sector, globally considered, has lagged behind this transformation, showing a smaller TFP contribution to growth than manufacturing and agriculture.
The paper focuses on relations between experts and politicians in Latin America. It is divided into three parts. The first outlines the distinctive features of the political economy of expertise in Latin America. This provides the context to the second part, which focuses on the analysis of cognitive institutions that produce applied economic policy knowledge in the region, and the formation of policy-making epistemic communities. In order to provide a mapping of these institutions we focused on a taxonomy based on ...
Le travail présenté démêle les relations étroites dans les pays en développement entre la rationalité politique et la rationalité technique. Cette question est centrale en particulier en Amérique latine, région sur laquelle se centre l’analyse, où les débordements idéologiques passés et présents tendent à éclipser la rationalité technique. A ce jour aucun exercice de cartographie exhaustive des institutions cognitives, produisant de la rationalité économique, appliquée et applicable à la conduite politique d’un pays latino-américain, n’a été engagé. Le présent travail est en ce sens...
This paper reviews macroeconomic aspects of pension reforms in Latin America, focusing on financial market stability and fiscal sustainability. Concentration of pension fund portfolios in government bonds remains high, and the lack of new investment alternatives has distorted asset prices. Countries have gradually liberalized investments abroad, but remain wary of the impact on foreign currency markets. The fiscal costs of the transition to funded systems have been higher than expected, and have contributed to high debt levels. The paper highlights the importance of coordinating changes in portfolio limits with debt management policies and measures to develop securities markets.
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