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The post–11 September security environment has led to a reevaluation of the nature of national security and national security systems. Bioterrorism in the form of attacks against the agricultural sector, particularly in the form of foot-and-mouth disease, could prove attractive to some groups should other targets and means of attack become more difficult. This article considers three cases, one of bioterrorism and two of agricultural disease outbreaks. Using complex adaptive system principles it suggests a strategy and socio-technical system design, adaptive hardening, appropriate to the challenge posed by terrorist-induced foot-and-mouth disease.
Chapter
PrefaceDefinition and Essence of BioterrorismConcept and IncentivesBioterrorism-Patterned Natural EpidemicsSignificance of Bioterrorism-Patterned Natural EpidemicsSpectrum of Applicable Pathogens and ToxinsBacterial AgentsViral AgentsToxinsAvailability of Infective Agents and ToxinsTechnical Feasibility of Biosabotage ActsOperational ModesSpatially and Temporally Varying ImpactsHistory and EvolutionState-Sponsored BioterrorismNonstate-Sponsored BioterrorismThe Anthrax LettersThe Ricin CourseThe Smallpox ComplexAgroterrorismNarcoterrorismNovel AgentsExploitability of Biotechnology and BiomedicinePreventative and CountermeasuresProjections and PrognosisReferences
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There are strong political pressures to relax the scrutiny of suspected biological weapons activity in Iraq. But the experience of United Nations inspectors in the country points to significant dangers in such a policy.
Article
Chemical/Biological Terrorism: An Old, But Growing Threat in the Middle East and Elsewhere - Volume 15 Issue 2 - Dany Shoham
Article
The influence of the microbial contamination load (xl) and preservative concentration (x2), as predictor variables, on the percentage of vials with growth of B. pumilus spores (y) was studied. The effect of a wide range of spore loads (1-500,000 spores of B. pumilus per sample) and preservative (chlorhexidine acetate) concentrations (0.03–40 μg/ml) on the percentage of contaminated samples was determined. Each contamination load was studied by adding the specified number of spores to vials containing various concentrations of chlorhexidine dissolved in 2 ml of nutrient broth. Every level of spore and chlorhexidine concentration was represented by 50 or 100 vials. Curves representing the number of contaminated vials against the concentration of chlorhexidine were sigmoidal in shape and the data showed an indirect relationship. Data were analyzed by the regression analysis which revealed a significant correlation (R=0.83) with the regression equation:
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This article compares the proliferation activities of the substate groups Aum Shinrikyo and al Qaida, Osama bin Laden's organization. It argues that they are dissimilar in motivation and organizational structure, yet pursued a similar multi-track strategy in an attempt to acquire weapons of mass de-struction. The article explores both groups' efforts to obtain these weapons and suggests that the similarities in the methods they used in their pursuit are largely a consequence of the financial resources of Aum and al Qaida. The article concludes that the examples of these groups provide important lessons for governmental efforts to counter future microproliferation. More-over, since both Aum and al Qaida continue to pose a proliferation threat, continued vigilance towards them remains vital. On 20 March 1995, the Japanese cult, Aum Shinrikyo, released the nerve agent, sarin, simultaneously on five subway trains in Tokyo, causing 12 deaths and 5,500 injuries. On 20 August 1998, U.S. planes bombed the al-Shifa facility in Khartoum, Sudan, along with targets in Afghanistan. Part of the subsequent ex-planation for these bombings was that the Sudanese factory had been involved in the manufacture of chemical weapons for the terrorist, Osama bin Laden, whose training camps were the targets in Afghanistan. Bin Laden was blamed for the 7 August 1998, bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The action against targets in Sudan and Afghanistan were thus not only reprisals for the embassy bombings, but also were intended to forestall a major use of chemi-cal weapons, as occurred in Tokyo, by terrorists who had already attacked U.S. facilities.
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Lanolin and liquid paraffin were used to make a new oil adjuvant anthrax vaccine, by using the well-known non-capsulated and avirulent anthrax strain 34F2. Eighteen mice, 30 guinea-pigs, and 48 sheep were used in the experiment. The mice and guinea-pigs were challenged with Pasteur strain II (JB17) and the sheep with a local virulent anthrax strain (Basrah). Most of the mice and guinea-pigs resisted challenge 21 days after vaccination and all the sheep in the experiment resisted the challenge. In a field trial with 5,000 sheep the vaccine gave protection against anthrax for two years as judged by the absence of the disease in any sheep during that time. No side effects or local reactions were seen at the site of injection. The vaccine also proved to be as practical to use in the open. Immunisierende Eigenschaften einer attenuierten “Sporenvaccine” mit Öladjuvans gegen Milzbrandinfektionen beim Schaf Mit Lanolin und flüssigem Paraffin wurde eine neue Öladjuvansvaccine gegen Milzbrand entwickelt. Als Impfstamm diente der bekannte kapsellose, avirulente Milzbrandstamm “34F2”. Die experimentellen Untersuchungen wurden bei 18 Mäusen, 30 Meerschweinchen und 48 Schafen durchgeführt. Die Testinfektion erfolgte bei Mäusen und Meerschweinchen mit dem Pasteurstamm II (JB17) und bei Schafen mit dem virulenten Milzbrandstamm “Basrah”. Nach einmaliger subkutaner Impfung waren die meisten Mäuse und Meerschweinchen sowie alle Schafe gegen eine experimentelle Milzbrandinfektion (21 Tage p. vacc.) geschützt. Bei 5000 in der Praxis geimpften Schafen traten innerhalb von 2 Jahren nach der Impfung keine Milzbrandinfektionen mehr auf. Nebenwirkungen oder lokale Impfreaktionen wurden nicht beobachtet. Die neue Milzbrandvaccine wird für den allgemeinen Gebrauch empfohlen.
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The activities of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), which has investigated Iraq's biological weapons program, is presented as a model for international arms control. A detailed first-hand description and evaluation of UNSCOM's activities shows that its success depended on the quality of the inspectors and their human intelligence capacity. Discrepancies in Iraq's extensive and well-concealed biological weapons program was the key to revelation of the extent of the Iraqi biological weapons program. Each step in UNSCOM's painstaking investigation of the Iraqi program is discussed.
Comparative Study of the Locally Produced Anthrax Vaccine With Three Suggested Vaccines
  • A M Al-Shawi
A. M. Al-Shawi and G. M. Al-Khatib, ''Comparative Study of the Locally Produced Anthrax Vaccine With Three Suggested Vaccines,'' Journal of Biological Sciences Research, No. 17, 1986, p.
Additive Made Spores Deadlier
  • Rick Weiss
  • Dan Eggen
Rick Weiss and Dan Eggen, ''Additive Made Spores Deadlier,'' The Washington Post, 25 October 2001, p. A1.
Anthrax Type That Killed May Have Reached Iraq: Baghad's Bid to Obtain Microbe Fuels Suspicions
  • Colum Lynch
Colum Lynch, ''Anthrax Type That Killed May Have Reached Iraq: Baghad's Bid to Obtain Microbe Fuels Suspicions,'' The Washington Post, 25 November 2001, p. A12.
Spore War — FBI Overlooks Foreign Sources of Anthrax The Wall Street JournalIraq's Threat — What Do We Know About Their Biological and Chemical Weapons
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Edward Jay Epstein, ''Spore War — FBI Overlooks Foreign Sources of Anthrax,'' The Wall Street Journal, 24 December 2001. 91 Ibid. 92 Stephen Bryen, ''Iraq's Threat — What Do We Know About Their Biological and Chemical Weapons?'', National Review Online, 3 January 2002.
US to Press UN Over Iraqi Weapon Inspections 95 United States Department of DefenseNewly Disclosed Iraqi Biological Warfare Program Dando, ''The Impact of the Development of Modern Biology and Medicine on the Evolution of Offensive Biological Warfare Programs in the Twentieth Century
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  • Roula Khalaf
  • Carola Hoyos
Stephen Fidler, Roula Khalaf, and Carola Hoyos, ''US to Press UN Over Iraqi Weapon Inspections,'' The Financial Times (London), 4 November 2001. 95 United States Department of Defense, ''Newly Disclosed Iraqi Biological Warfare Program,'' declassified document, released 30 October 1997, available at http:==www.gulflink.osd.mil 96 M. Dando, ''The Impact of the Development of Modern Biology and Medicine on the Evolution of Offensive Biological Warfare Programs in the Twentieth Century,'' Defense Analysis, No. 15, 1999, p. 43.
Anthrax: the Elephant in the Room
  • Robert L Bartley
Robert L. Bartley, ''Anthrax: the Elephant in the Room,'' The Wall Street Journal, 29 October 2001.
Foot and Mouth Disease: A Harbinger of Biogenetic War and Eco-terrorism
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Steve Russell, ''Foot and Mouth Disease: A Harbinger of Biogenetic War and Eco-terrorism,'' Reuters, 16 May 2001, on YOWUSA.com, 3 June 2001.
Report Linking Anthrax and Hijackers is Investigated
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William J. Broad and David Johnston, ''Report Linking Anthrax and Hijackers is Investigated,'' The New York Times, 23 March 2002.
Status of the Anthrax Investigation Center for Nonproliferation Studies
'Status of the Anthrax Investigation,'' Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 87 David Rose and Ed Vulliamy, ''Iraq Behind U.S. Anthrax Outbreaks,'' The Observer (London), 14 October 2001.
Seeks al-Qaeda Link to Iraq
  • Rowan Scarborough
Rowan Scarborough, ''U.S. Seeks al-Qaeda Link to Iraq,'' The Washington Times, 14 January 2002.
Former Smuggler Describes Iraqi Plot to Attack
  • Scott Peterson
Scott Peterson, ''Former Smuggler Describes Iraqi Plot to Attack U.S.''
As Capitol Reopens, Anthrax Case Revives Concerns About Spores' Potency,'' The Washington Post
  • John Lancaster
  • Justin Blum
John Lancaster and Justin Blum, ''As Capitol Reopens, Anthrax Case Revives Concerns About Spores' Potency,'' The Washington Post, 22 October 2001, p. A1.
Saddam's Ultimate SolutionWide Angle'' documentary http:==www.pbs.org=wnet=wideangle=shows=saddam=index.html 110 Dany ShohamChemical=Biological Terrorism: An Old, But Growing Threat in the Middle East and Elsewhere
Saddam's Ultimate Solution,'' PBS ''Wide Angle'' documentary, 12 July 2002. http:==www.pbs.org=wnet=wideangle=shows=saddam=index.html 110 Dany Shoham, ''Chemical=Biological Terrorism: An Old, But Growing Threat in the Middle East and Elsewhere,'' Politics and the Life Sciences, September 1996, pp. 218–219.
Comprehensive Policy Toward Iraq
  • Saad Farage
Saad Farage, ''Comprehensive Policy Toward Iraq,'' The Iraqi Activist, 11 October 2001.
Midgut Histopathology in Culex sp. Treated With Bacillus Thuringiensis and Bacillus Sphaericus
  • H Mohsen
H. Mohsen et al., ''Midgut Histopathology in Culex sp. Treated With Bacillus Thuringiensis and Bacillus Sphaericus,'' Journal of Biological Sciences Research, No. 18, 1987, p. 219.
Iraq Linked to Past Attacks
  • Keith Phucas
Keith Phucas, ''Iraq Linked to Past Attacks,'' The Times Herald, Philadelphia= Norristown, Pennsylvania, 22 October 2001, p. 1.
Iraqi Scientist Tells 10-Year Secret
  • S Bhatia
S. Bhatia, ''Iraqi Scientist Tells 10-Year Secret.'' 42 Ibid.
Saddam Tested Anthrax and Camel Pox on Human Guinea Pigs
  • M Colvin
  • U Mahnaimi
M. Colvin and U. Mahnaimi, ''Saddam Tested Anthrax and Camel Pox on Human Guinea Pigs,'' The Sunday Times (London), 18 January 1998, p. 1.
UNSCOM Odyssey: The Search for Saddam's Biological Arsenal
  • J A F Compton
J. A. F. Compton, ''UNSCOM Odyssey: The Search for Saddam's Biological Arsenal.''
Missing in Iraq: The UN Charts Saddam's Lethal Inventory
  • A J Venter
A. J. Venter, ''Missing in Iraq: The UN Charts Saddam's Lethal Inventory,'' Jane's International Defense Review, No. 5, 1999, p. 34.
The Dirty Secret of 'Dirty Bombs
  • Khidhir Hamza
Khidhir Hamza, ''The Dirty Secret of 'Dirty Bombs,''' The Wall Street Journal, 12 June 2002.
The School Defectors Cite Iraqi Training for Terrorism
  • Chris Hedges
Chris Hedges, ''The School Defectors Cite Iraqi Training for Terrorism,'' The New York Times, 8 November 2001, p. A1.
  • James Kitfield
James Kitfield, ''Next Stop–Baghdad?'', National Journal, 12 October 2001.
Unholy Trinity in Chemical Weapons Pact The Courier Mail
  • Chris Griffith
Chris Griffith, ''Unholy Trinity in Chemical Weapons Pact,'' The Courier Mail, Brisbane, Australia, 24 September 2001.
69 Khalid Sharaf-al-Din, ''Bin-Laden Men Reportedly Possess Biological Weapons
  • Yediot Aharonot
66 Yediot Aharonot, Israel, 10 October 1994. 67 Ma'ariv, Israel, 22 February 1998. 68 BBC News, 23 March 1998. 69 Khalid Sharaf-al-Din, ''Bin-Laden Men Reportedly Possess Biological Weapons,'' Al-Sharaq al-Awsat, 6 March 1999 (FBIS document ID: FTS 19990306000273).
Ekeus Warns Bin Ladin
  • Claudio Gatti
Claudio Gatti, ''Ekeus Warns Bin Ladin, Saddam Seeking Tactical Anti-U.S.
Army Efforts Against Biological Weapons Rapped United States Department of Defense, Conduct of Persian Gulf War — Final Report to Congress Tucker with Captain Lawrence Seaquist, former special coordinator for counterproliferation, Office of the Secretary of Defense=Policy
  • Zurer
Zurer, ''Army Efforts Against Biological Weapons Rapped,'' Chemical Engineering News, No. 69, 1991, p. 6; United States Department of Defense, Conduct of Persian Gulf War — Final Report to Congress, April 1992, p. 64; Interview by Jonathan B. Tucker with Captain Lawrence Seaquist, former special coordinator for counterproliferation, Office of the Secretary of Defense=Policy, U.S. Department of Defense, 29 March 1993; Rick Atkinson, Crusade: The Untold Story of the Persian Gulf War (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1993), p. 90.
34 Colum LynchAnthrax Type That Killed May Have Reached Iraq: Baghad's Bid to Obtain Microbe Fuels Suspicions
Vaccine of Bacillus Anthracis in Sheep,'' Journal of Veterinary Medicine B, No. 33, 1986, p. 340. 34 Colum Lynch, ''Anthrax Type That Killed May Have Reached Iraq: Baghad's Bid to Obtain Microbe Fuels Suspicions,'' The Washington Post, 25 November 2001, p. A12.
Saddam Tested Anthrax and Camel Pox on Human Guinea Pigs Report of the Secretary General on Iraq's Compliance With Security Council Resolution 678
  • U Colvin
  • Mahnaimi
Colvin and U. Mahnaimi, ''Saddam Tested Anthrax and Camel Pox on Human Guinea Pigs.'' 46 United Nations, Report of the Secretary General on Iraq's Compliance With Security Council Resolution 678, 11 October 1995, pp. 19–31.
Status of the Anthrax Investigation Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies
'Status of the Anthrax Investigation,'' Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Congressional Record Weekly Update, 17–21 June 2002.
Iraq's Biological Warfare Agents: A Comprehensive Analysis 31 British Television, 4th Channel 32 ''Did the Anthrax Come From Iraq
  • Dany Shoham
Dany Shoham, ''Iraq's Biological Warfare Agents: A Comprehensive Analysis.'' 31 British Television, 4th Channel, 30 January 1991. 32 ''Did the Anthrax Come From Iraq?'' Sunday Times (London), 21 October 2001.
Jane's International Defense Review
Jane's International Defense Review, No. 5, 1999, p. 34. 36 UNSCOM Periodical Report, 25 January 1999 (Current e-mail notifications on Iraq; by Laurie Mylroie<sam11@erols.com>).
Saddam Has Germ Warfare Arsenal, Says Defecting Physicist
  • Jessica Berry
Jessica Berry, ''Saddam Has Germ Warfare Arsenal, Says Defecting Physicist,'' Sunday Telegraph (UK), 30 September 2001.
Officials Question Link Between 9=11 and Iraq
  • Peter Eisler
Peter Eisler, ''U.S. Officials Question Link Between 9=11 and Iraq.''
Czech UN Envoy Confirms Terrorist Meeting,'' The Prague Post, Czech Republic
  • Frank Griffiths
Frank Griffiths, ''Czech UN Envoy Confirms Terrorist Meeting,'' The Prague Post, Czech Republic, 5 June 2002.
FBI on Wrong Trail in Anthrax Investigation
  • Edward Jay Epstein
Edward Jay Epstein, ''FBI on Wrong Trail in Anthrax Investigation,'' Laurie Mylroie<sam11@erols.com>, 29 June 2002.
Effects of Sub-atmospheric Pressure and Oxygen on Growth and Sporulation of Bacteria
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M. Salih et al., ''prediction of Growth of Bacillus Pumillus...'' 61 A. A. A1-Sulami et al., ''Effects of Sub-atmospheric Pressure and Oxygen on Growth and Sporulation of Bacteria,'' Proceedings of International Conference on Infectious Diseases, 1986, p. 230, abstract at pp. 2–5.