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The Lunar Synodical Period and Precipitation in the United States
Abstract
A cycle of 14.765 days, one-half of the lunar synodic month, can be demonstrated in the precipitation data for the United States for the period 1871-1961. Numerous rigorous statistical tests show that association is real and an estimate is obtained of the magnitude of the lunar effect. Geographical, seasonal and other sources of variation in the effect are suggested by the data. No other periodicity with comparable amplitude was found by the statistical analysis, but there is evidence that the lunar synodic cycle interacts with the nodical cycle.
... Moreover, the superposed epoch analysis (SEA) was used to distinguish between the possible connections of the regional hydroclimate with the central and eastern Pacific SSTs. The SEA technique is used to resolve significant signal-to-noise problems (Brier and Bradley 1964). Each event year is taken as a key or zero window year. ...
... Each event year is taken as a key or zero window year. The values of the time series for this 0 year and for a window of years before and after the event years are superposed and averaged over the series time span (Brier and Bradley 1964;Mass and Portman 1989). The Monte Carlo randomization test was used to test the significance of the relationship. ...
... This indicates that the composite difference in Pacific SSTs has played an important role in the decadal-scale changes in hydroclimate over southern China. We used SEA (Brier and Bradley 1964;Mass and Portman 1989) to identify the possible linkage between local dry and wet events and the central and eastern Pacific SSTs. We defined an extremely dry or wet year as a year in which the earlywood δ 18 O value was more or less than 1σ (1.75‰) outside the longterm average. ...
In this study, we investigated the potential influence of central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the unstable relationships between earlywood δ18O and climate factors in the southwestern China during from 1902 to 2005. We found a recent loss of the climate signals recorded in the earlywood δ18O series since the late 1970s. The signal reduction may be caused by the changes of local hydroclimate, which is associated with the increasing SSTs over the central Pacific Ocean during recent decades. With increasing SSTs over central Pacific, southwestern China experienced more and severe droughts in late spring and early summer during the central Pacific (CP) El Niño years than the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño years in recent decades. The frequent droughts may have weakened the response of earlywood δ18O to climate variables.
... The lunar modulation of meteoric dust (Adderley and Bowen, 1962) and atmospheric tides (Brier and Bradley, 1964) were considered as possible conductors of lunar influence on precipitation. Markson (1971) drew attention to cosmic rays as a possible participant of the lunar influence on precipitation. ...
... Markson (1971) drew attention to cosmic rays as a possible participant of the lunar influence on precipitation. He supported his assumption by the results of Brier and Bradley (1964) concerning an increase in lunar effects on precipitation data during the years of solar minimum (when the flux of galactic cosmic rays was larger). We consider lunar tides in the atmosphere as the most probable cause of lunar semimonthly variations, and our results do not contradict the theory of lunar tides (Chapman and Lindzen, 1970) outlined in Section 2. Besides, as will be argued below, variations in cosmic rays may be partially caused by atmospheric tides. ...
In this paper the previous findings of the lunar effect [1-4] on tropospheric and noctilucent clouds are not only reproduced, but the analysis for both types of clouds is carried out in a single approach. For describing of clouds the two indices were taken, one for presence or absence of noctilucent clouds in a clear night, another one for a nighttime tropospheric cloud coverage. Variations in these indices are considered, vs. all the three main variables, determining the lunar position: lunar phase, lunar declination and Earth-Moon distance. Tropospheric cloudiness variations connected with the lunar declination and also with the lunar distance are described and analyzed for the first time. The similarity and difference between the lunar effects in noctilucent and tropospheric clouds are investigated.
... Recently, however, brief reports by Bradley, Woodbury, and Brier [2] nnd Adderley and Bowen [I], in which tx statistically significant association wtw found between the lunar synodic period of 29.53 clnys, and precipitation in the United States and New Zealand, raised some questions about the possibility of detecting lunar tidal effects in precipitation. A more detailed report by Brier and Brndley [3] presented additional evidence and the suggestion that some of the other lunar periods entering into t i d d theory might be important in describing or explaining the lunar-precipitation relationship. Although our knowledge of the physical processes of precipitation is not complete enough to formulate a theory to include tidal effects, at least it seemed desirable to have a general physical framework that might assist in the interprettbtion of the precipitation. ...
... This precise line-up does not happen often because of the differences in thefigure 1 shows for all the data the mean variation in rainfall during the 15 days following syzygy. This is essentially the same figure presented by Brier and Bradley [3] and mas shown by them to contain a highly significant periodic component of 14.765 days. Curve (b) shows that the largest contribution to the amplitude and phase ...
Evidence is presented that precipitation variations in the United States are related to the solar and lunar tidal forces. The results of the statistical investigation are consistent with a mathematical model that shows how a small periodic influence can be of possible importance for the timing of an cvcnt such as thc initiation of prccipitntion. The atmosphere undergoes some regular oscillations which are due to the gravitational effects of the moon and the combined gravihtional and thermal effects of the sun. It is conventional to cd these motions "tides" and to denote by S, and L,, respectively, the oscillation whose period is the nth part of the solar day (24 solar hours) and the nth part of the 1unrl.r dt~y (24.87 solrw hours). These tides hare been studied by Chapman (4) and others. Recently Haurwitz (5) has reviewed the present state of our knowledge regarding these phenomena. In the vtrrintion of surlace pressure, Sz appears dominant ns a 12-hr. oscillation on tropical barogrttph traces while SI, the 24-hr. waoe, generally has an amplitude about half that of S,, with a much less regular distribution over the globe. The other surface pressure oscillations S3, S,, . . . L1, L2, . . . are smaller and are considered of no practicnl significance. Although the effect of the moon on surface pressure is sndl, the phase and amplitude of Lz, the larger oscillation, Imve been determined by statistic;d treatment of extensive c1atiL by Chaprnan (4) and others. The prevailing view in meteorology Iras been that on such weather elements as precipitation, apprecitlble lunar effects were neither likely nor detectable. Recently, however, brief reports by Bradley, Woodbury, and Brier (2) nnd Adderley and Bowen (I), in which tx statistically significant association wtw found between the lunar synodic period of 29.53 clnys, and precipitation in the United States and New Zealand, raised some questions about the possibility of detecting lunar tidal effects in precipitation. A more detailed report by Brier and Brndley (3) presented additional evidence and the suggestion that some of the other lunar periods entering into tidd theory might be important in describ- ing or explaining the lunar-precipitation relationship.
... It would follow from this, that, if the frequency of occurrence of rainfall expressed as a percentage of the mean is plotted as a function of the synodic decimal, the amplitude of the 14.765-day fitted harmonic will be larger in the case of winter and inland data than in the case of coastal areas and summer. These features are borne out found by Brier and Bradley [5]. In another stratification of rainfall according to high and low solar activity Brier and Bradley [5] found that the variance contributed by the 14.765-day period is larger in low sunspot periods than in high sunspot periods. ...
... These features are borne out found by Brier and Bradley [5]. In another stratification of rainfall according to high and low solar activity Brier and Bradley [5] found that the variance contributed by the 14.765-day period is larger in low sunspot periods than in high sunspot periods. Berson and Deacon [2] came to a similar conclusion in regard to Mangdore and Djakarta rainfall. ...
Recent studies have revealed a relationship between variations in gravitational tidal forces and rainfall. A possible mode of interaction of the tidal forces on atmospheric processes is suggested to explain how the tidal forces which are small may induce detectable effects on atmospheric circulation, considering both synoptioscale and short- period processes in the atmosphere. The variability of gravitational tidal forces is compared with variations in precipitation as revealed by statistical studies. The interrelation between thermar and tidal forces is brought out to account for the anomalous distribution of maximum precipitation in the United States during the synodic month when classified according to seasons, geographical areas, and periods of high versus low solar activity. The model suggested in this paper is based on an intuitional approach to the problem. Its usefulness or validity can be ascer- tained only by further investigations of rainfall variations; in addition there is the need to devise sensitive tests to be applied to them.
... Sus asociaciones con la tierra, el agua y la fertilidad, prácticamente universales, parecen haber tenido bases observacionales. Algunos estudios han mostrado que las lluvias tienden a ser más abundantes en el primero y el tercer cuarto del mes sinódico (Adderley y Bowen, 1962;Brier y Bradley, 1964), lo que concuerda con la información etnográfica obtenida en los altos de Guatemala de que durante la temporada de lluvias "llueve más cuando la luna está tierna que cuando está madura" (Remington, 1980: 112), y también con el comentario del obispo Diego de Landa (1973: 4) de que "por fines de enero y febrero hay un veranillo de recios soles y no llueve en ese tiempo sino a las entradas de las lámina 12. Calakmul, Estructura ii, vista hacia el norte a través de la entrada central de la Estructura ii-B, construida sobre el nivel intermedio del basamento; nótese la Estructura vii y el cerro al fondo, ambos ubicados a lo largo del eje de simetría de la entrada (IŠ). ...
... For given sufficient data, a common underlying (causal) response to a forcing event should theoretically emerge in the average (composite) while other noise in the data should cancel. Examples of applications of the SEA method are widespread in various scientific fields of study (Brier & Bradley 1964;Mass & Portman 1989;Swetnam & Betancourt 1990;Lühr et al. 1998). ...
We are very much known to the importance of ozone layer without which life on the Earth would not have evolved in the way it has. Solar storms carried energetic protons into the Earth's upper atmosphere, where they boosted production of nitrogen oxides which are known as ozone killers and ultimate increase in ultraviolet (UV) radiations. In the present study, we have estimated the effects of solar energetic protons during super storms (Dst index <-300 nT) over the total ozone column since last 32 years. We have selected total seven super storm events occurred during solar cycles 22-24 (for last 32 years) having Dst index <-300 nT. To that end, we have applied the superposed epoch analysis (SEA) to verify the impact of storm events on the quantitative variation of total ozone column and on ultraviolet (UV) radiations during super storm events. After the empirical analysis, we have concluded that the ozone column gets depleted significantly (22±6.8%) as proton density increases during super storm events and this decrement in the ozone level is further responsible for a substantial increase (26±11.2%) in peak of ultraviolet radiation intensities.
... Nevertheless, sing time variation of daily precipitation data as a function of some moon particular cycles, some studies have showed that gravitational tides affect heavy rainfalls more than moderate rainfalls. (BRADLEY et al., 1962;ADDERLEY and BOWEN, 1962;BRIER and BRADLEY, 1964;CEVOLANI et al., 1986). According to Camuflo (1999), the most effective mechanisms for lunar influence on the climate seems to be attributed to the modulation in the gravitational field with changes in transport of heat as a consequence of the tidal movement of the water masses. ...
ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT In Mato Grosso, state located in the Brasilian Midwest, some of these climatic references have names that are known in much of its territory: The "Janeirinho" is the name given to the reference of the forecast of rains for the whole year from the observation of the occurrence of this event in the first days of January; the "rain of Saint Joseph", whose absence of can indicate a more rigorous drought in the current year; the "cashew rain" refers to precipitation that occurs at the height of the drought; precipitations that can be favored by the "passage of moon"; and the arrival of the "great waters" from the reappearance in the night sky of the constellation Pleiades. Thus, with the objective of recovering this popular knowledge, this work analyzed daily precipitation data, between 1961 and 2017, and sought to quantitatively identify these references.
... Its practically universal associations with earth, water, and fertility (Eliade 1964) seem to have had observational bases; various studies have detected a correlation between specific lunar phases and precipitation regime, hurricanes and tropical storms, temperatures, and germination of certain plants (e.g., Balling and Cerveny 1995;Carpenter et al. 1972). Some studies have shown that rainfall tends to be more abundant during the first and third quarters of the synodic month (Bradley et al. 1962;Brier and Bradley 1964), which agrees with ethnographic information obtained in the Guatemala Highlands by Remington (1980, p. 112) and a statement by Diego de Landa: ''Towards the end of January and in February, there is a short summer, with a burning sun; and during this time it does not rain except at the time of the new moon'' (Tozzer 1941, p. 4). Moreover, according to several recent studies, a correlation exists between rainfall, tides, and temperatures, on the one hand, and the 18.6-year nodal cycle of the Moon, on the other (Agosta 2014;Currie and Vines 1996;Haigh et al. 2011;Mitra and Dutta 1992), providing an attractive basis for interpreting the meaning of orientations to lunar extremes, whose periodicity depends on the nodal cycle (Sánchez and Š prajc 2015, pp. ...
This article synthesizes recent advances in the study of astronomy and worldview in architectural and urban planning in Mesoamerica. Throughout most of this cultural area, the practice of orienting civic and ceremonial buildings followed similar principles, although regional and time-dependent variations are present. Analysis of alignment data has revealed the existence of distinct and widespread orientation groups; most refer to sunrises and sunsets on particular dates, although two groups can be related to lunar and Venus extremes. Astronomically relevant directions frequently dominate considerable parts of urban layouts. The orientation and the location of important buildings often were conditioned by astronomical criteria and beliefs about specific landscape features; particularly notable are structures that were aligned to prominent mountaintops on the local horizon. Based on a variety of contextual data, I interpret the uses and significance of orientations in terms of agricultural concerns, cosmological concepts, and political ideology. I outline the evolution of orientation practices, drawing attention to pan-Mesoamerican trends, regional patterns, and diffusion processes.
... Furthermore, various researchers have noted a correlation between certain phases of the Moon and rainfall, hurricanes, tropical storms, temperatures, and the germination of certain plants (e.g.: Carpenter et al. 1972;Balling & Cerveny 1995;Cerveny et al. 2010;González 2001: 171f). Specifically, for North America and New Zealand, it has been demonstrated that heavy rains tend to occur more frequently in the first and third weeks of the synodic month (Bradley et al. 1962;Adderley & Bowen 1962;Brier & Bradley 1964). Interestingly, and in agreement with these findings, Judith Remington (1980: 112) was told, during her ethnographic research in Guatemala Highlands, that during the rainy season 'llueve más cuando la luna está tierna que cuando está madura', while Diego de Landa reported that 'towards the end of January and in February, there is a short summer, with a burning sun; and during this time it does not rain except at the time of the new moon' (Tozzer 1941: 4). ...
Systematic archaeoastronomical research recently conducted in several regions of Mesoamerica has revealed the existence of architectural orientations corresponding to major and minor extremes of the Moon (also known as standstill positions) on the horizon. Particularly indicative are the results of quantitative analyses of alignment data from the Maya Lowlands, disclosing a prominent group of orientations that can be convincingly related to the major lunar extremes. The astronomically-motivated intentionality of these alignments is additionally supported by contextual evidence, particularly significant being the fact that most of them are concentrated along the northeast coast of the Yucatán peninsula, where the lunar cult is known to have been important. Since the lunar orientations are regularly associated with those corresponding to the solstitial positions of the Sun, it is very likely that particular attention was paid to the full Moon extremes. This contribution also presents some independent evidence that sheds light on the cultural significance of lunar orientations.
... Furthermore, various researchers have noted a correlation between certain phases of the Moon and rainfall, hurricanes, tropical storms, temperatures, and germination of certain plants (e.g.: Carpenter et al., 1972;Balling and Cerveny, 1995;Cerveny et al., 2010;González, 2001: 171f). Specifically, for North America and New Zealand it has been demonstrated that heavy rains tend to occur more frequently in the first and third weeks of the synodic month (Bradley et al., 1962;Adderley and Bowen, 1962;Brier and Bradley, 1964). Interestingly, and in agreement with these findings, Judith Remington (1980: 112) was told, during her ethnographic research in Guatemala Highlands, that during the rainy season it rains more when the moon is tender than when it is full, while Diego de Landa (1973: 4) reported that "por fines de enero y febrero hay un veranillo de recios soles y no llueve en ese tiempo sino a las entradas de las lunas"; 10 if the analyses of rainfall data from two widely separated regions resulted in the same conclusion, we can assume that it also applies to the Mesoamerican latitudes, thus The Role of Astronomy in Architectural and Urban Planning being highly likely that the above cited ethnographic and Landa's reports are based on observational reality. ...
... ej., Carpenter et al., 1972;Balling & Cerveny, 1995;Cerveny et al., 2010;González, 2001, p. 171 s.). Específicamente, para Norteamérica y Nueva Zelanda se ha demostrado que las lluvias torrenciales suelen producirse con más frecuencia en las semanas primera y tercera del mes sinódico (Bradley et al., 1962;Adderley & Bowen, 1962;Brier & Bradley, 1964). Curiosamente, y en concordancia con estos hallazgos, a Judith Remington (1980, p. 112) le explicaron, durante su investigación etnográfica en las Tierras Altas de Guatemala, que durante la época de lluvias llueve más cuando la luna está tierna que cuando está llena, mientras que Diego de Landa (1973, p. 4) informó que "por fines de enero y febrero hay un veranillo de recios soles y no llueve en ese tiempo sino a las entradas de las lunas"; si los análisis de datos sobre precipitaciones de dos regiones ampliamente separadas dieron lugar a la misma conclusión, podemos suponer que se aplica también a las latitudes mesoamericanas, siendo de ese modo muy probable que el informe etnográfico y el de Landa mencionados más arriba se basen en una realidad observacional. ...
... Además de que, desde épocas remotas, debe haber llamado la atención el paralelismo entre el ciclo sinódico de la Luna, las mareas y el ciclo menstrual de la mujer, varios estudios han detectado una correlación entre ciertas fases lunares y la cantidad de precipitaciones, los huracanes y tormentas tropicales, las temperaturas y la germinación de ciertas plantas (e.g.: Carpenter et al. 1972;Balling y Cerveny 1995; R. J. González 2001: 171s). Concretamente, para Norteamérica y Nueva Zelanda se ha mostrado que las lluvias tienden a ser más abundantes en el primero y el tercer cuarto del mes sinódico (Bradley et al. 1962;Adderley y Bowen 1962;Brier y Bradley 1964), lo que concuerda con la información etnográfica obtenida en los altos de Guatemala por Remington (1980: 112), de que durante la temporada de lluvias "llueve más cuando la luna está tierna que cuando está madura", y también con el comentario de Diego de Landa (1973: 4) de que "por fines de enero y febrero hay un veranillo de recios soles y no llueve en ese tiempo sino a las entradas de las lunas"; si los análisis de los datos pluviales de dos regiones tan distantes llevaron a la misma conclusión, podemos asumir que ésta aplica también a las latitudes mesoamericanas, por lo que es muy probable que los reportes etnográficos y de Landa citados arriba tengan bases observacionales. El dato más interesante en nuestro contexto es que también existe una correlación entre el régimen pluvial, las mareas y las temperaturas, por una parte, y el ciclo nodal de la Luna, de 18.6 años, por la otra (Mitra y Dutta 1992;Currie 1993;1995;Oost et al. 1993;Haigh et al. 2011;Agosta 2014). ...
An archaeoastronomical study recently accomplished in the Maya area revealed that the architecture on the northeast coast of the Yucatán peninsula is characterized by some peculiar orientation trends, which we have not been able to explain in a satisfactory manner. In order to acquire additional information, in November 2015 we measured the orientations of 34 structures at 21 archaeological sites. The book presents the results of this work, as well as some analyses based on all the available data from the northeast coast. Their distribution shows that the percentage of orientations related to the Sun is notably lower than in other parts of the Maya Lowlands. The orientations to the major lunar extremes (also known as standstill positions), which are quite rare elsewhere, constitute the most prominent group on the northeast coast, most likely reflecting the fact that the worship of the goddess Ixchel, associated with the Moon, was very important in the region, particularly during the Postclassic period, when most of the buildings included in the study were constructed. The lunar alignments are regularly associated with those referring to the solstices; the analysis of declinations corresponding to both groups has disclosed that their referents must have been predominantly the major northerly extremes of the Moon on the western horizon and the southern (winter solstice) extremes of the Sun on the eastern horizon. It is thus possible to conclude that a special attention was paid to the full Moon extremes, considering that these phenomena are always visible around the solstices and can be observed almost simultaneously with those of the Sun, but on diametrically opposed horizons. The significance of lunar orientations can be accounted for by the Moon’s aquatic and fertility symbolism, which was likely based on the observed correlations between lunar cycles and the periodicity of climatic variations and other changes in natural environment, whereas the combinations of lunar and solstitial alignments are congruent with the conceptual relationship between the Sun and the full Moon, characteristic of the Mesoamerican world view. The solstitial orientations represent the second most important group on the northeast coast, conceivably because of their relation with lunar alignments. The remaining solar orientations probably allowed the use of observational calendars similar in structure to those that have been documented in other parts of Mesoamerica and whose purpose was to facilitate a proper scheduling of seasonal activities. For the third most significant group of orientations on the northeast coast we propose some stellar motives, but the hypothesis requires further testing. Finally, by analyzing the orientations of coastal structures, we note that many of them exhibit a rather close correspondence with the adjacent shoreline, but since they also pertain to astronomically significant groups, we argue that the seafront buildings must have often been erected on selected places, where both astronomical and topographic criteria could be met.
... As early as 1962, Brier and Bradley identified a 14.765 day cycle in precipitation data for the United States during the period 1871-1961 and made estimation for the lunar-solar effect on the rainfall variability by means of statistical analysis. Although no attempt was made at that time to give meteorological interpretation of the findings, they were convinced that the lunar solar effect was a significant factor in the distribution (Bradley et al., 1962;Brier and Bradley, 1964;Brier, 1965). In 1995 Keeling and Whorp presented a paper proposing that extreme ocean tides may produce variation in sea surface temperatures. ...
The main factor that determines the weather on the surface of the earth is the time variation of the position overhead sun. This single factor determines the time of the day or night, variation of the surface temperature, prevailing wind direction and therefore, precipitation, weather and climate at any location on the earth surface. The locus of this position can always be accurately determined astronomically and therefore it is possible to predict most weather parameters using weather models. Current climate models may be used to generate forecasts which have high degree of reliability. However, for prolonged periods, the reliability decreases significantly. Furthermore, most models may not be used to replicate past climates. While it is possible to explain the causes of some past weather anomalies it is not entirely possible to forecast future ones with considerable certainty. In this work, the effects of enhanced atmospheric tides resulting from unique solar-lunar geometries as well as those of known solar activities influencing the atmosphere will be investigated with a view to establishing their impact on forecast generated using climate models. The purpose is to increase the time-space reliability of the models. Enhanced atmospheric tides is seen to increase the height of the Hadley cell as well as decreasing the latitudinal base on which the cell is located. Because the spatial-temporal occurrence of an enhanced atmospheric is time-dependent, its effect on climate and weather parameters can accurately be predicted.
... Merriman [2] in 1892 presented evidence that new and full moons are followed by increased rainfall as did Wallace [3] in 1930. More recently Brier [4] [5] and Brier and Bradley [6] have applied more exact analytical methods to more extensive series of data, thus obtaining a better quantitation of the relationship. Their studies provided no evidence as t o whether the lunar influences acted directly and locally, however, or indirectly through an influencing of polar High initiation and of the cyclonic activity so commonly present at the forward edges of these invading polar Highs, The extent of the lag their graphs showed in the rainfall peaks after new and full moons tends to favor the latter as the more likely. ...
Begun as an effort to better delineate the effects of sunspots on North American polar front initiation, this study soon uncovered rather remarkable lunar-solar gravitational influences far outweighing the sunspot influences. Data used in the study included daily sunspot numbers since 1914, a daily calendar of lunar phases, and departures of Chicago mean daily temperatures from the daily normal. Sharpest Chicago temperature declines occurred 10 days following new or full moon reinforced by lunar perigee; the declines were smaller in the absence of lunar perigee, and they were at a minimum at the times of quarter moons and lunar apogee. These gravitational forces were found capable of negating of accentuating the effects of rising or falling sunspot numbers. Extension of this study to a broader observational basis should provide helpful information for greater accuracy in long-range weather forecasting.
... Over the years there has been an increase in literature indicating an evident relationship between the lunar synodic cycle and the occurrence of precipitation for different regions of the world. Some of the regional level studies include Brier and Bradley [1964], who found a cycle of 14.765 days in case of heavy precipitation and Hanson et al. [1987], who indicated a spatial progression of precipitation with relation to the lunar phase over frequency, both in case of the contiguous United States. Scientists have also indicated the impact of lunar phase on other climate variables including surface and air temperature Cerveny, 1995a, 1995b;Anyamba and Susskind, 2000], tropospheric temperatures [Balling and Cerveny, 1995c]. ...
Scientists for different regions of the world have indicated the impact of lunar cycle on different climatic parameters including precipitation. In the present study the impact of the lunar cycle on the precipitation in India has been analyzed. Daily precipitation records were assembled for 129 stations spread across the subcontinent for the time period 1910 to 2000. The results of the study indicate a general tendency towards the increased occurrences of precipitation a few days after the full moon in the interiors. The west coast of India showed tendency towards higher precipitation amounts in the ascending phase of the lunar cycle.
... Interestingly enough, this period is approximately that of the lunar cycle, which has been found frequently in recent years in connection with rainfall and other parameters (cf. Bradley et al. 1962, Brier and Bradley 1964, Lund 1965). As might be expected, analysis of brightness data for some particular locations in the Tropics over part of 1967 has shown a peak amplitude for this same 28-30-day period and also for the period of 14 to 15 days, the semilunar period (private communication from G . ...
Temporal and meridional variations of zonal means of albedo and absorbed solar radiation, derived from digitized satellite pictures, are portrayed for the period February 1967-February 1968 over a broad range of latitudes. The variations in a number of prominent features of the zonal mean albedo-the maxima associated with the intertropical convergence zone, the minima associated with the subtropical anticyclones and equatorial dry zone, and the poleward ascendants of albedo from the subtropics-are revealed in more detail than possible heretofore. The annual courses of zonal mean albedo in three component sectors of 120' longitude each are also shown. The sector covering the zone 0°-115'E differs the most from the overall mean and from the other two sectors covering the Pacific and Atlantic- Americas regions. These differences are most pronounced in the period June-August when the summer monsoon is dominant over Southeast Asia. Harmonic analysis of the overall zonal mean albedo values for a full year at individual latitude circles between 0' and 45'N indicates the relative prominence of the annual, semiannual, and other 1mg-period oscillations at the various latitudes. The annual cycle is dominant in latitudes 25'-45'N and 10°-15'N. At Oo, 5', and ZO'N, the semi- annual cycle is stronger than the annual cycle. In the Tropics and subtropics, amplitudes of frequencies corresponding to periods of 28-30 days are more prominent than all but the very long-period oscillations (Le., 90-365 days). The annual course cf the absorbed solar radiation associated with these albedo values exhibits some interesting features brought about by the asymmetries of albedo in the Northern Hemisphere relative to the equinoxes and summer solstice. For example, the consistently higher albedos at all latitudes northward of 20'N and lower values at 10°-15'N in March than in September result in a poleward gradient of absorbed solar radiation considerably stronger at the vernal than at the autumnal equinox. Comparison of albedos and absorbed solar radiation for Northern and Southern Hemispheres near their respective summer solstices reveals that the poleward ascendant of albedo is much stronger in the Southern Hemisphere and that, therefore, the poleward gradient of absorbed solar radiation is considerably stronger too.
Archaeoastronomical studies have demonstrated that the important civic and ceremonial buildings in Mesoamerica were largely oriented to sunrises or sunsets on specific dates, but the origin and spread of orientation practices were not clear. Using aerial laser scanning (lidar) data, we analyzed orientations of a large number of ceremonial complexes in the area along the southern Gulf Coast, including many recently identified Formative sites dating to 1100 BCE to 250 CE. The distribution pattern of dates marked by solar alignments indicates their subsistence-related ritual significance. The orientations of complexes built between 1100 and 750 BCE, in particular, represent the earliest evidence of the use of the 260-day calendar, centuries earlier than its previously known use in textual records.
The recent addition of orbit-spin coupling torques to atmospheric global circulation models has enabled successful years-in-advance forecasts of global and regional-scale dust storms on Mars. Here we explore the applicability of the orbit-spin coupling mechanism for understanding and forecasting anomalous weather and climate events on Earth. We calculate the time history of orbit-spin coupling torques on the Earth system for the interval from 1860-2040. The torque exhibits substantial variability on decadal to bidecadal timescales. Deep minima recur at intervals from 15-26 years; eight such episodes are documented within the study period prior to 2020. Each of the identified torque minima corresponds in time to an episode of widespread drought in the Western USA extending over several years. The multiyear droughts of the 1930s, the 1950s, the mid-1970s, the early 1990s, and of 2011-2015 were each coincident in time with orbit-spin coupling torque minima. The upcoming torque minimum of 2030 is the deepest such minimum of the 180-yr study interval. A multiyear episode of widespread drought in the Western USA is likely to be underway by 2028 plus or minus 4 years (2 standard deviations). The potential benefits to societies of improved drought predictions justify an immediate high-priority effort to include forcing by orbit-spin coupling within state-of-the-art Earth system GCMs. Future targeted numerical modeling investigations are likely to yield forecasts with considerably lower uncertainties and with much improved temporal resolution in comparison to that obtained here.
As populações locais na
Amazônia costumam utilizar as fases da lua
no planejamento de diferentes atividades
cotidianas. É possível identificar em bases
de dados meteorológicos na região efeitos
associados à essa sabedoria popular? O
objetivo neste trabalho foi analisar registros
pluviais em Taperinha associados as fases da
lua. Utilizou-se uma série homogênea de dados
diários de precipitação pluvial em Taperinha e
comparou-se aos dados correspondentes as
fases da lua no mesmo período. O ciclo lunar
contabilizado no trabalho inicia na Lua Nova,
seguido da Lua Crescente, Lua Cheia e Lua
Minguante, considerando-se o período entre o
dia do início da fase da lua até o início da próxima
fase. As fases da lua eram sempre registradas
nas fichas armazenadas na Fazenda Taperinha,
mas os registros homogêneos correspondem
ao período de 1961 a 1981. Os dados foram
tratados no software R, mais especificamente
no pacote ‘lunar’. Destaca-se que o período
mais chuvoso inicia em dezembro e termina
em maio e o menos chuvoso vai de julho a
novembro. Foram contabilizados 6.816 dias de
fase lunares na série histórica analisada com
243 ciclos completos, ressaltando que em cada
ciclo há 4 fases lunar. Foi possível associar ocorrência de chuva com as fases lunares, sendo predominante no período de Lua Minguante
(31,1%), seguido da Lua Nova (28,6%), Lua Cheia (18,0%) e Lua Crescente (4,7%). Em
bases de dados pluviais foi possível identificar efeitos relacionados à eventos de chuva em cada fase lunar. A sabedoria popular afirma que chove mais na Lua Minguante e, conclui-se que há maior possibilidade de acerto quando a estratégia de decisão no planejamento
das atividades cotidianas for associada ao calendário lunar das populações sem acesso aos prognósticos de tempo e clima na região.
Construction and Demolition Waste (RCD) is all material from construction, renovation and demolition. These residues are dangerous for the environment, having a direct impact when misused. This study aimed to show how the treatment of RCD takes place in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (RMR). The information was based on literature, in addition to visits to a company specialized in receiving and recycling construction and demolition waste. It was found that in RMR, despite many buildings under construction, there is a deficit of landfills to meet demand. There was an increasing industrialization of waste management generated by civil construction, with a significant number of points for receiving, treating, processing and recycling the waste generated. The studied company has the capacity to process between 900 to 1000 tons of RCD per day, but uses only 33% of its production capacity. About 80 to 90% of the waste received is transformed into aggregates, generating revenue for the company and avoiding negative environmental impacts. Although it has not yet obtained environmental certification, the company follows the rules established by CONAMA resolution N. 307/2002 for the provision of services.
KEYWORDS: Waste, Works, Improvement, Utilization, RMR.
Tide is an essential factor in coastal engineering. The relationship between all forces and factors causing tides are very complex. Traditionally, tides are predicted through harmonic analysis, where a tide level at any time instants is estimated based on the past records. Predicting tide levels based on previously recorded data, strongly suits the application of artificial intelligence models such as neural networks. In the literature, the tide level estimation with neural networks has been mostly considered as a curve-fitting problem. As such, for different beaches different networks have been designed and used. Contrary, in this article, a simple and efficient deep neural network that can estimate future tide levels based on forces and factors affecting the tidal range is proposed. The main advantages of the proposed method are that the input layer can be kept as small as possible, the input data is accessible, and as the input data is based on the main causes of tide, one network can be used for different beaches.
Theory and evidence indicate that trees and other vegetation influence the atmospheric water-cycle in various ways. These influences are more important, more complex, and more poorly characterised than is widely realised. While there is little doubt that changes in tree cover will impact the water-cycle, the wider consequences remain difficult to predict as the underlying relationships and processes remain poorly characterised. Nonetheless, as forests are vulnerable to human activities, these linked aspects of the water-cycle are also at risk and the potential consequences of large scale forest loss are severe. Here, for non-specialist readers, I review our knowledge of the links between vegetation-cover and climate with a focus on forests and rain (precipitation). I highlight advances, uncertainties and research opportunities. There are significant shortcomings in our understanding of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and of its representation in climate models. A better understanding of the role of vegetation and tree-cover will reduce some of these shortcomings. I outline and illustrate various research themes where these advances may be found. These themes include the biology of evaporation, aerosols and atmospheric motion, as well as the processes that determine monsoons and diurnal precipitation cycles. A novel theory—the ‘biotic pump’—suggests that evaporation and condensation can exert a major influence over atmospheric dynamics. This theory explains how high rainfall can be maintained within those continental land-masses that are sufficiently forested. Feedbacks within many of these processes can result in non-linear behaviours and the potential for dramatic changes as a result of forest loss (or gain): for example, switching from a wet to a dry local climate (or visa-versa). Much remains unknown and multiple research disciplines are needed to address this: forest scientists and other biologists have a major role to play. New ideas, methods and data offer opportunities to improve understanding. Expect surprises.
There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events—space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.
We examine solar wind intervals with Alfvénic fluctuations (ALFs) in 1995 - 2011. The annual number, the total annual duration and the average length of ALFs vary over the solar cycle, having a maximum in 2003 and a minimum in 2009. ALFs are most frequent in the declining phase of solar cycle, when the number of high-speed streams at the Earth´s vicinity is increased. There is a rapid transition after the maximum of solar cycle 23 from ALFs being mainly embedded in slow solar wind (< 400 km/s) until 2002 to ALFs being dominantly in fast solar wind (> 600 km/s) since 2003. Cross helicity increased by 30% from 2002 to 2003, and maximized typically 4-6 hours before solar wind speed maximum. Cross helicity remained elevated for several days for highly Alfvénic non-ICME streams, but only for a few hours for ICMEs. The number of substorms increased by about 40% from 2002 to 2003, and the annual number of substorms closely follows the annual cross helicity. This further emphasizes the role of Alfvénic fluctuations in modulating substorm activity. The predictability of substorm frequency and size would be greatly improved by monitoring solar wind Alfvénic fluctuations in addition to the mean values of the important solar wind parameters.
The history of long-range forecasting over the past century is traced in this lecture through the work of innovators of synoptic, statistical, and physical approaches. The development of scientific methods appears to have been initiated by the researches of Teisserenc de Bort, who, by averaging sea-level pressure fields over intervals of a month or so, brought to light the “centers of action” and in addition, related prevailing weather conditions over long periods to their strength and position. Spurred on by the undeniable relationships found by de Bort, research workers the world over attempted to develop regional weather types and predict their occurrence. These methods employed to predict were generally devoid of physical reasoning and thus after several fruitless decades led to an era of disillusionment which still dampens the enthusiasm of the meteorological community for long-range forecasting.
New light was cast on the centers of action beginning in the 1930’s with the work of several groups, especially that under the direction and stimulus of G. G. Rossby in the U. S. A. These advances stemmed from the discovery of a new class of largescale and slow-evolving systems in the mid-troposphere (planetary waves) and from the concept of vorticity conservation. This concept provided for the first time a physical rationale for teleconnections and extended forecasting, and ultimately led to the development of short-range (up to a few days) numerical prediction models.
Current long-range forecasting seems to focus on influences external to the atmosphere, particularly feed-back phenomena associated with abnormal boundary influences imposed by oceanic surface temperatures and snow or ice cover, and to focus less sharply on irregular solar influences on the atmosphere. Empirical and synoptic studies carried on with new sophisticated techniques and computing machines are also being developed. The goal now within sight is the development of numerical models for long-range forecasting — statistical and physical, as well as a combination of both. It remains to be seen whether iterative schemes will succeed or whether ensemble approaches using time-averaged states with the help of statistical and largely thermodynamical methods will render the desired objectivity along with increased reliability in predictions.
Most geophysical phenomena have typical interrelations in time and space. But these restrictions are frequently forgotten by investigators processing data in order to verify, or to detect, the laws of nature. For example, the claimed relations between geophysical events and eosmical data are numerous, but rather few such relationships survive the next decade. One main reason for this is certainly the use of random sampling techniques when investigating geophysical data, in spite of the fact that statistics of related terms were studied by Markov half a century ago. If long series of records are available, the sampling complications due to serial correlation can be removed by selecting dates separated by a proper interval of time. But in most cases we have data only for relatively short intervals, and we are therefore forced to use all data to get optimum determination of the statistical parameters. The significance of these parameters then depend very much on the serial correlations involved. The purpose of this paper is to derive tests of significance, which may be applicable to a variety of such investigations when serial correlations are present in the data. DOI: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1966.tb01442.x
Preconceived notions concerning the nature and causes of climate variability determine the datasets that scientists examine, the analysis tools they employ, and the questions they address in their research. Their choices, in turn, define and limit the range of possible outcomes. If these notions are wrong, the research is likely to get off on the wrong track. If they are lacking altogether, the course of the research may be determined by default, through ad-hoc choices, as in the maxim: “If all you have is a hammer, all you’ll see is nails”.
IN each of two Los Angeles rain seasons (Table 1) rainfall was concentrated in the first half of arbitrarily chosen 27-d intervals. This suggests the existence of a rainfall component with a period near 27 d. The phase was roughly constant throughout the 5-yr interval from mid-1966 to mid-1971. Usually, however, over the preceding 46 yr studied, the phase changed from year to year, only occasionally remaining constant for 2 or 3 yr. Figure 1 is a graph of the 5-d mean positions, plotted on the third day, of the principal centre, or cell of highest pressure of the semipermanent East Pacific high pressure cell in the region 19 to 50°N and 120 to 165°W for the 1973 winter (Los Angeles is at 34°3′N and 118°14′W). On average, the cell was more southward during rainier halves and more northward during drier halves of the 27-d intervals. The oscillation seems to be greater and more regular in winter than in other seasons.
A SEEMINGLY minor but crucial discrepancy exists between Rudloff's and my distributions of the lunisolar angle on the 269 dates. I used true apparent longitudes of the Moon and Sun at Greenwich noon given by standard ephemerides, rather than cyclical mean values of shortcut-table derivation.
Paleoclimatic studies help us to gain valuable perspectives and insights into the nature and possible origins of present-day climatic variations that are beyond the reach of conventional historical weather data to provide. In this informal paper, the author lends some personal perspectives on the importance of paleoclimatic studies for the purpose of assessing the future of our climate, and illustrates this by focusing in particular on how tree-ring analyses may elucidate the chronology of changing risks of past and future outbreaks of major droughts in the American West.
Long-range weather forecasts, based on cycle analysis, have been attempted without much success. Recent research suggests the possibility of making use of lunar cycles or the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) observed in atmospheric phenomena. Investigation of the sea-level zonal index for the northern hemisphere, using monthly mean data, shows the existence of the QBO. But in addition to QBO, there is a more pronounced signal that can be interpreted in terms of a general soli-lunar tidal framework. One reason this signal was not detected previously is due to the reduction in amplitude and the phase distortion produced by summarizing the data by monthly periods centered only at the midpoint of the calendar month. This phenomenon, referred to as the aliasing problem, should be considered in the analysis of all geophysical data (such as tide data) in which periodic components, even of low amplitude, can exist.
Rain and hail data from five meteorological stations on the plateau of South Africa have been examined for a dependence on lunar phase. Different distributions with respect to lunar phase were found for summer and winter data. Statistical analyses of the winter distributions, which appeared to be more significant than those for the summer, suggested that winter rain is modulated by the moon in such a manner that there is one component with the same period as the lunisolar cycle which depends on station latitude and another having three peaks which is latitude independent. This three-peak component seems to operate throughout the year.
Analysis of 38 tree ring chronologies yields evidence for enhanced drought conditions every 18.6 years in the North American interior for the past millenium. Cross spectra between a drought area index and 26 temperature records confirm the analysis of Currie (1979, 1981d) as regards a lunar nodal MN term in these data. Discussion of the MN tidal constituent, which appreciably modulate amplitude and phase of four main constituents (M2, K1, O1, Mf), is presented, and implications for agriculture are surveyed.
Most geophysical phenomena have typical interrelations in time and space. But these restrictions are frequently forgotten by investigators processing data in order to verify, or to detect, the laws of nature. For example, the claimed relations between geophysical events and eosmical data are numerous, but rather few such relationships survive the next decade. One main reason for this is certainly the use of random sampling techniques when investigating geophysical data, in spite of the fact that statistics of related terms were studied by Markov half a century ago.If long series of records are available, the sampling complications due to serial correlation can be removed by selecting dates separated by a proper interval of time. But in most cases we have data only for relatively short intervals, and we are therefore forced to use all data to get optimum determination of the statistical parameters. The significance of these parameters then depend very much on the serial correlations involved.The purpose of this paper is to derive tests of significance, which may be applicable to a variety of such investigations when serial correlations are present in the data.
Intraseasonal oscillations appearing in a newly available 20-year record of satellite-derived surface air temperature are composited with respect to the lunar phase. The daily surface air temperature is one of the geophysical fields derived from the TOVS data processed at the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. Polar regions exhibit strong lunar phase modulation with higher temperatures occurring near full moon and lower temperatures at new moon, in agreement with previous studies. The polar response to the apparent lunar forcing is most robust in winter when solar influence is at minimum. In addition, the response appears to be influenced by ENSO events. The highest mean temperature range between full moon and new moon in the region between 60° and 90° latitude was recorded in 1983, 1986/87, and 1990/91. Although the largest signal is in the polar regions, anomalies tend to progress equartoward in both hemispheres so that the warming in the tropics occurs at the time of the new moon.
While variations in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) have been linked to atmospheric enhancement of greenhouse gases, it is useful to identify all contributing factors potentially acting upon the DTR. In this study, an area-weighted record of daily temperatures from the United States Historical Climate Network is used to examine the influence of lunar phase variations on the DTR. For the period from 1950 to 1995, a statistically significantly higher DTR occurs near the full moon (∼10.23°C) while a lower DTR occurs near the new moon (∼ 10.13°C). This synodic monthly difference appears to be primarily influenced by warmer maximum daily temperatures occurring near the full moon. This finding allows evaluation of two potential extraterrestrial factors influencing terrestrial temperatures as a function of lunar phase: a) the barycenter effect which is defined as variations in terrestrial and lunar position around their mutual gravitational centroid over the course of synodic month, and b) reflected solar/infrared emission off the lunar surface over the course of a synodic month. While both the barycenter effect and the reflected solar and infrared emission off the lunar surface would influence the minimum temperatures, we suggest that the barycenter effect is likely the dominating extraterrestrial mechanism in explaining lunar phase variations in the diurnal temperature range because its additional influence on daily maximum temperatures.
Significant lunar diurnal tidal terms in the rainfall recorded at Naples have been determined and are discussed.
Statistical analyses of the highest returned frequency from the E-region during daylight and night-time hours at Washington, D.C. are described. The results show an annual change in the character of the diurnal variation of this parameter. During the winter the daytime maximum occurs around noontime and then shifts to the mid-morning hours by the late summer months. Except for the annual variation, variance spectrum analyses show no significant tendency toward periodicities longer than two days in the noontime observations of f0Emax. However, the spectrum of the midnight observations shows, in addition to the annual period, evidence of a significant peak at six months, and another close to the lunar synodical period of approximately 29.5 days.
Evidence of a tidal influence from luni-solar gravitational fields has been highlighted by analysing daily precipitation data collected at many stations in the Alps and the Po Valley (Italy) over the 1970-81 period. Tidal influence as the possible result of a modulation effect caused by luni-solar cycles having similar lengths, does not appear to be strictly constant over time. Time variations in daily precipitation data as a function of some particular cycles show that gravitational tides affect heavy precipitation more than mean precipitation values. ``Semimonthly'' oscillations have been derived from trends in daily precipitation data grouped according to the age of distinct lunar months. The investigation of the combined effects of different luni-solar components, relating to years of particular climatological interest, might assist in the prediction of extreme precipitation.
We employ a comprehensive (1900–2009) stream discharge gauge database to analyze the tidal impacts on inland streams. Our analysis reveals a strong lunar phase signal in stream gauge time series across the conterminous United States such that the largest tidal impact on inland rivers is evident at or just after the quarter moon (halfway between full and new moons). As an explanation, we examine precipitation using the Historical Climate Network precipitation dataset. Verifying early studies’ results, we find an equivalent well-defined lunar phase relationship with precipitation such that the largest tidal impact on precipitation generally occurs just before the quarter moon. Our results imply that inland precipitation is influenced by lunar tides and forces the lagged runoff evident in stream gauges. The lunar-induced periodicities in the stream gauge network, evident far from ocean-induced tides, may also influence flooding, as well as water management and power generation.
Begun as an effort to better delineate the effects of sunspots on North American polar front initiation, this study soon uncovered rather remarkable lunar-solar gravitational influences far outweighing the sunspot influences. Data used in the study included daily sunspot numbers since 1914, a daily calendar of lym phases, and departures of Chicago mean daily temperatures from the daily normal. Sharpest Chicago temperature declines occurred 10 days following new or full moon reinforced by lunar perigee; the declines were smaller in the absence of lunar perigee, and they were at a minimum at the times of quarter moons and lunar apogee. These gravitational forces were found capable of negating or accentuating the effects of rising or falling sunspot numbers. Extension of this study to a broader observational basis should provide helpful information for greater accuracy in long-range weather forecasting.
The paper starts out by discussing factors which influence the Indian monsoon rainfall—including Northern Hemispheric temperature changes, long-period soli–lunar tides, and the tidelike phenomena associated with the wobble of the Earth relative to its spin-axis. When the effects of these factors on precipitation are quantified and integrated into a thermodynamical–statistical model, long-range climatic forecasts can be made that are better than chance or than predicting ‘normal’ up to two or more years in advance.
Climatic changes have had profound effects on the peoples of India through the controlling influence of the monsoon on Indian agriculture. We now have a technological tool, never before available, that might lessen the impact of variations of the monsoon by forecasting these variations one to two years in advance. The two-years-in-advance 1982 monsoon rainfall forecast for June and July, using the same station models that produced the excellent 1981 forecast, indicates that there is a two-to-one chance that the 1982 Indian monsoon rainfall will be less, in general, in June and July, than it was in 1981. The question which we wish to ask the reader is: How can this new technology be used? For example, how can this type of information be used for planning and policy-making in order to ensure less uncertainty about food supplies in the future than in the past?
This region cannot depend upon the monsoon to bring plentiful rain every year, and, therefore, it is essential that we should continue to improve our forecasting capability and that others learn to make optimum use of these forecasts.
Daily rainfalls of an inch or more for 100 years at one station have been classified according to the phase of the moon with which they occurred. An apparent significant correlation between two 50-year smoothed sub-series is found to have been induced by the filtering process of taking running sums. When the effects of the ensuing serial dependence are eliminated, the results are not indicative of a significant overall relationship between the series of rainfalls and moon phase.
In both sub-series, a persistent trough in frequency count of heavy rainfalls about full moon has been investigated further by examining data from three additional stations in different rainfall regimes. The trough was evident in the data from each of the frequency counts of rainfalls near full moon. However, when each series was viewed in isolation, statistical tests revealed that the observed numbers of rainfall occurrences were not significantly different from the expectations based on the assumption that the series were random. The consistency of the trough rather than its amplitude suggested a weak non-random influence might be present.
An additional product of the statistical analysis of the single station data is an indication of the differing filtering effects of the smoothing process as the number of elements in the running sums is increased progressively from one to ten.
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