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Article: Food Scare Crises and Developing Countries: The Impact of Avian Influenza on Vertical Price Transmission in the Egyptian Poultry Sector
Abstract
A bivariate Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction Model is applied to monthly poultry price data to analyze the effects that avian influenza has had on price transmission along the Egyptian poultry marketing chain. In order to reflect consumer awareness of the crisis, an avian influenza food scare information index is developed and used within the model as a transition variable. Our results suggest that price adjustments to deviations from the market equilibrium parity depend on the magnitude of the avian influenza crisis. Further these adjustments are found to have very different implications for market equilibrium: during the crisis retailers use their market power to increase marketing margins. In contrast, wholesaler margins are found to decline. Results also suggest that food safety information indices contribute to understanding the economic effects of food scare crises in developing countries. We also find that news circulated for the purpose of increasing consumer confidence may be more productive at the beginning of the crisis than when consumers are already confused and saturated by media.
... The poultry industry has a significant impact on Egypt's national economy and is one of the country's key industries (Fasina et al., 2012;Hassouneh et al., 2012;Attia et al., 2022). The Egyptian poultry business presents a lucrative opportunity for investment due to the sizeable domestic market for the consumption of poultry meat, which also has great development potential as a result of the country's expanding population and rising per capita consumption, which is being driven by the strengthening of the Egyptian economy (Hassouneh et al., 2012;Attia et al., 2022). ...
... The poultry industry has a significant impact on Egypt's national economy and is one of the country's key industries (Fasina et al., 2012;Hassouneh et al., 2012;Attia et al., 2022). The Egyptian poultry business presents a lucrative opportunity for investment due to the sizeable domestic market for the consumption of poultry meat, which also has great development potential as a result of the country's expanding population and rising per capita consumption, which is being driven by the strengthening of the Egyptian economy (Hassouneh et al., 2012;Attia et al., 2022). Chicken and egg products are the most widely available and reasonably priced forms of animal protein in Egypt (Fasina et al., 2008;Setta et al., 2023). ...
... The poultry business is one of the most important industries in Egypt and has a substantial impact on the country's overall economy (Fasina et al., 2012;Hassouneh et al., 2012;Attia et al., 2022). In Egypt, respiratory disease viruses such as H5N8 and NDV cause substantial financial losses to the poultry industry Setta et al., 2023). ...
Avian influenza virus (AIV) and Newcastle disease virus (NDV) are respiratory illness syndromes that have recently been detected in vaccinated flocks and are causing major financial losses in the chicken farming industry. The objective was to evaluate the efficacy of Valley Vac H5Plus NDVg7 vaccine in protecting chickens against the H5N8 and NDV strains that have recently been circulating in comparison with the efficacy of the commercially available bivalent H5+ND7 vaccine. In contrast to the H5+ND7 vaccine, which was made of genetically distinct H5N8/2018 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype group (G5), H9N2/2016, H5N1/2017, and genetically comparable NDV genotype VII 1.1/2019 of the recently circulating challenge viruses, the Valley Vac H5Plus NDVg7 vaccine consisted of the recently isolated (RG HPAI H5N1 AIV/2015 Clade 2.2.1.2, RG HPAIV H5N8/2020 Clade 2.3.4.4b genotype group 6 (G6), and NDV genotype VII 1.1/2012) which were genetically similar to challenged strains. To determine the effectiveness of the Valley Vac H5Plus NDVg7 vaccine, a total of 70-day-old commercial chicks were divided into 7 groups of 10 birds each. Groups (G1 and G4) received Valley Vac H5Plus NDVg7 vaccine. Groups (G2 and G5) groups received commercial H5+ND7 vaccine. While groups (G3 and G6) were kept nonvaccinated, and group (G7) was kept as a nonchallenged and nonvaccinated. After 3-wk post vaccination (WPV), groups G1, G2, and G3 were challenged with A/Duck/ Egypt/SMG4/2019(H5N8) genotype G6. On the other hand, groups G4, G5, G6 were challenged with NDV/EGYPT/18629F/2018 genotype VII 1.1 with an intranasal injection of 0.1 mL. Antibody titer was calculated at the first 3 wk after vaccination, and the viral shedding titer was calculated at 3-, 5-, and 7-days post challenge. Mortality and morbidity rates were monitored daily during the experiment, and for the first 10 d after the challenge, to provide an estimate of the protection rate. The results showed that a single dosage of 0.5 mL per bird of Valley Vac H5Plus NDVg7 vaccine provides 80% protection against both H5N8 and NDV, compared to the bivalent H5+ND7 vaccine, which provided 20 and 80% protection against H5N8 and NDV, respectively. In addition, 0.5 mL per bird of Valley Vac H5Plus NDVg7 vaccine produced a greater immune response against both viruses than commercial vaccination at 1 to 3 WPV with a significant difference at 1 WPV for H5N8 and a comparatively higher immune response for NDV. Furthermore, it reduced virus shedding of H5N8 on the third, fifth, seventh, and tenth days lower than H5+ND7 vaccine with a significant difference on the third day for H5N8 and relatively lower than bivalent H5+ND7 vaccine for NDV with a significant difference on the fifth day. The Valley vaccinated group demonstrated more tissue intactness compared to the commercially vaccinated group against the H5N8 challenge, however the bivalent commercially vaccinated group showed the similar level of tissue integrity against NDV. In conclusion, Valley Vac H5Plus NDVg7 that contains the genetically similar strain to recently circulating challenged virus (H5N8 genotype G6) provided better protection with greater immune response and decreased the amount of virus shed against H5N8 genotype G6 and showed less histopathological alteration than the commercial bivalent H5+ND7 vaccine that contain genetically distinct (H5N8 genotype G5). However the Valley Vac H5Plus NDVg7 provided the same protection with relatively high immune response and relatively decreased the amount of virus shed and showed equal tissue integrity than the commercial bivalent H5+ND7 vaccine against NDV genotype VII 1.1 that contain the same genotype of NDV genotype VII 1.1.
... Based on a hedonic spline regression to model fish prices, [9] show that printed news has a negative impact on prices that remain over time. Hassouneh et al. [17] develop an avian influenza food scare information index, applying a smooth transition vector error correction model to analyse the impact of avian influenza on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector. Serra [42] evaluates the impacts of a BSE outbreak on price volatility transmission along the Spanish food marketing chain, here based on a smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model. ...
... Following Hassouneh et al. [17,19] and Acosta et al. [1], this study aims to analyse the impact of communication regarding the Spanish tuna fraud incident on the price of tuna, salmon and hake in different regimes. To be more specific, we investigate the asymmetries in the price transmission mechanism in three aspects: (i) the size of the price response of tuna, salmon and hake to a shock of a given size on the communication on the incident; (ii) the speed and persistence of the response; and (iii) whether responses are symmetric, that is, whether there is a difference in price response when there is a positive or negative shock on the communication. ...
... We expect less of a reaction among fish prices in the decreasing regime when the tuna fraud weakened, likely because of the potential exposure resistance of consumers to the negative information. For the second hypothesis, as consumer prices did react to the communication index in the literature [17,19,32], we expect the model to reject the hypothesis and show that there exists a significant impact of the change of communication on prices. The change of communication captures the information on the market regarding how consumers consider the current situation and their expectation, and therefore, it could be reflected on the market price. ...
Using a two-regime threshold vector autoregressive model, this study investigates the nonlinear price transmission among tuna, salmon and hake during a food safety incident. The tuna fraud in Spain caused a histamine outbreak in 2017, which made 105 people fall ill. To evaluate the degree to which the food safety incident affected price transmission and reflected consumer awareness of the tuna fraud scandal, we have developed a communication index based on the number of Twitter posts and use its first difference to identify the increasing and decreasing regime of the development of the incident. There exists a greater reaction among prices in the increasing regime when communication strengthens on Twitter. Although the impacts of communication are not statistically significant, we find evidence that, in an increasing regime, a change in the communication index Granger causes the price of tuna and hake. The paper concludes with policy implications.
... A panel threshold error correction model is employed to a recent high-frequency panel data set of the farm, wholesale, and retail prices for all thirty provinces in Iran over the period from 2010 to 2016. Results indicate incomplete vertical price transmission at the wholesale level and a complete pass-through at the retail level. 1 In line with previous research, we interpret these findings as evidence of wholesaler market power (Hassouneh et al., 2012;Hosseini et al., 2012;Saghaian et al., 2008). The econometric estimates reveal that asymmetric price adjustment from farm to wholesale level decreases with temperature. ...
... The extent to which price transmission interacts with explanatory variables has important implications concerning the evaluation of market performance, marketing decisions and policy recommendations. Along with search cost and menu cost, market power is often cited as a cause of asymmetric price transmission (Hassouneh et al., 2012;Lloyd, 2017;Loy et al., 2016;Meyer & von Cramon-Taubadel, 2004;Vavra & Goodwin, 2005). Market power allows market participants to delay price-cost shocks in their favour. ...
... They report that the price transmission process tends to be more asymmetric and the retail-to-wholesale margins expand in reaction to both disease outbreaks. Hassouneh et al., (2012) investigate the potential outcomes of food scarcity for price dynamics along the Egyptian poultry value chain. Using a food safety index as the exogenous transmission variable, they argue that the food scare shock creates a situation in which retailers exert market power to increase their margin. ...
Understanding market integration has greatly benefited from analysing and comparing variations in price transmissions. An important source of variation in agricultural markets is seasonal changes in production, consumption and transaction costs. A key factor driving seasonality in agricultural price is temperature, as supply and demand changes are triggered by seasonal temperature differences. In this paper, we study the seasonal variations in vertical price transmission focusing on the asymmetric price adjustment to analyse changes in the market interactions between the stages of the value chain. Our data reveal significant transitory effects of temperature on the price transmission process. Results of a panel threshold model suggest that the farm–wholesale price adjustments to deviations from the market equilibrium are more symmetric at higher temperatures. However, we do not find an effect of temperature on the wholesale–retail price relationship. Our findings can be rationalised with wholesalers making use of their market power to extend their margins in the upstream chain. Wholesaler market power is lower during warm periods, and price adjustment is more symmetric. Concerning the Iranian poultry value chain, our findings imply that temperature-related differences in market interactions should be considered in formulating policy interventions.
... Prices in the global poultry market fluctuate greatly and frequently, which means every link of the poultry industry chain face great risks [6][7][8][9]. Avian influenza epidemic is the main cause of price fluctuation in poultry industry chain [10][11][12]: (i) in the short-run, when avian influenza epidemic breaks out, the market demand of poultry products becomes insufficient and the market price of poultry drops sharply, resulting in short-run negative price pressure; (ii) while in the long-run, after avian influenza epidemic, the market demand of poultry products recovers and the market price of poultry rises in retaliation, forming a long-run price reversal; (iii) therefore, in general, the market price of poultry tends to be V-shaped [13]. ...
... First, in measurement, there are two types of indicators of an avian influenza epidemic-objective indicators and subjective indicators: (i) Objective indicators: Huang and Wang [16] use no. of avian influenza cases to evaluate the economic impact of an avian influenza epidemic on broiler industry in China; Liu and Lu [17] use no. of poultry destroyed to analyse farmers' productive recovery behaviour in avian-infected area under the shocks of avian influenza; and Zhou and Liu [18] use dummies for poultry infection and human infection with avian influenza cases, respectively, to analyse vertical and horizontal transmission of broiler industry price under avian influenza risk; (ii) Subjective indicators: Hassouneh et al. [12] use the avian influenza food scare information index to reflect consumer awareness of the crisis, so as to analyse the impact of an avian influenza epidemic on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector; Mutlu, Serra and Gil [19] use an avian influenza information index variable to determine regime-switching, so as to analyse the vertical price transmission in the Turkish poultry market under an avian influenza epidemic; Zheng and Ma [20] use the Baidu index to reflect variance and intensity of the epidemic, so as to analyse the dynamic impacts of avian influenza on livestock and poultry prices based on the TVP-VAR model. However, the prior literature in measurement typically measures avian influenza epidemic simply as a whole and does not distinguish between its components (i.e., avian influenza outbreak and public opinion), which may overestimate the impact of avian influenza outbreak and underestimate the impact of public opinion. ...
... Our findings are significant in that departing from previous work, we contribute to the literature on the price risk spillover of avian influenza to global poultry market in several ways. (i) In measurement, the existing papers measure avian influenza epidemic as a whole and ignore its components, therefore they actually estimate the mixed effects of an avian influenza epidemic [12,19]; whereas we decompose avian influenza epidemic into avian influenza outbreak (incident component) and public opinion on avian influenza (information and communication component) and distinguish between the impacts of these two components, showing that it is actually public opinion, not avian influenza outbreak, that directly broiler price risk, not avian influenza outbreak itself, implying that in the existing literature, the impact of avian influenza outbreak may have been overestimated and the impact of public opinion may have been underestimated in prior work; (ii) In theory, the existing papers characterize the price risk spillover mainly by the theory of individual consumers' risk perceptions and behavioural biases [22,24] and neglect the clustering of consumers' opinion, thus they may be insufficient to interpret the particular large price risk along with intensive news and social media coverage in the age of big data; whereas we follow Hong and Stein [30] and Li et al. [31] in introducing the theory of limited attention and two-step flow of communication and develop a new analytical framework to capture the causal mechanism, arguing that avian influenza outbreak itself only attracts limited attention if not intensively covered by media, while public opinion on avian influenza attracts excessive attention, which triggers price risk, implying that the role of public opinion in amplifying price risk should not have been ignored when analysing the price risk spillover in prior work. (iii) In empirical analysis, although preliminary empirical evidence attempts to explore the spatial distribution of the impact of avian influenza to broiler market [29,32,33], the existing papers seldom consider the spatial spillover effect of avian influenza on poultry market, which may overlook the spatial relationships between areas; whereas we develop static and dynamic spatial economic models to capture the spatial spillover effects and find that whether short-run or long-run, public opinion on avian influenza has an even three times larger spatial spillover effect on nearby broiler price, compared to the direct effect on local broiler price, implying that spatial spillover should not have been omitted in prior work. ...
Animal disease is a major threat to the sustainability of the global livestock market. We explore the price risk spillover of avian influenza to the broiler market, from the perspective of public opinion. Unlike in previous work, where avian influenza is measured as a whole, we decompose an avian influenza epidemic into avian influenza outbreak and public opinion, measured by infection cases and Baidu and Google search volume. Theoretically, by introducing the theory of limited attention and two-step flow of communication, we develop an analytical framework to capture the causal mechanism of avian influenza outbreak, public opinion, and broiler price risk spillover, arguing that it is actually public opinion, not avian influenza outbreak alone, that directly causes broiler price risk. Empirically, using a long panel from China spanning from November 2004–November 2017, we examine the causal mechanism and analyse the nonlinear spatial spillover of public opinion to broiler price risk. We find that: (i) neither poultry nor human infection with avian influenza outbreak has a significant spillover to broiler price; (ii) on average, public opinion has a negative spillover to broiler price; in general, spillover of public opinion to broiler price is inverse U-shaped; (iii) on average, public opinion has a negative direct effect on local broiler price and a three times larger negative spatial spillover effect on nearby broiler price; in general, direct and spatial spillover effects are inverse U-shaped. Our research highlights the importance of studying public opinion in amplifying price risk when analysing spillover of animal disease to the global livestock market.
... Several studies investigate the impact of supply shocks on pass-through on poultry markets. For example, Saghaian, Ozertan, and Spaulding (2008) and Hassouneh, Radwan, Serra, and Gil (2012) identify supply shocks in terms of influenza outbreaks that threaten food security. Saghaian et al. (2008) (2001) and Hassouneh, Serra, and Gil (2010) report that food scares have differentials impacts on retailers and producers in the UK and Spain beef market, respectively. ...
... The supply chain of less-developed countries, in particular for poultry, has some specific characteristics such as a lack of appropriate storage facilities, relatively short production cycles in an environment characterized by high search, and processing costs (Chaudhry & Miranda, 2018). These features make poultry chains in less-developed countries especially interesting for analyzing cost pass-through dynamics (Chaudhry & Miranda, 2018;Hassouneh et al., 2012;S. S. Hosseini et al., 2012;Saghaian et al., 2008;Ukum, Molua, & Ake, 2018). ...
This study employs traditional holidays in Iran as proxies to analyze the impact of periods of peak demand on cost pass‐through in the poultry market. We use weekly wholesale
and retail price data for all 30 provinces of Iran from 2010 to 2016. By panel cointegration techniques, we estimate cost pass‐through elasticities and speed of adjustment during periods of peak demand. We find that cost pass‐through elasticities slightly increase; the speed of adjustment in periods of peak demand remains the same, but retail–wholesale margins decrease. Thus, peak demand leads to an increase in retail–wholesale competition similarly observed by Chevalier et al. (2003, Am Econ Rev, 93, 15–37).
... In most cases, the presence of asymmetries is detected but causes related to unbalanced market power are not focus on price transmission in relation to animal health crises. Among these, BSE has been well studied, followed in recent years by avian influenza (25,26). The authors thus examined BSE studies to explore the evidence on the conceptual background of price transmission and animal health. ...
... According to Livanis and Moss (3), a onepoint variation in the FSII has a more rapid effect at the retail level than at the producer and wholesale levels, where prices take more time to recover after a demand shock. For more information about the FSII, see the studies of Hassouneh et al. (5,25). ...
Animal health diseases can severely affect the food supply chain by causing variations in prices and market demand. Price transmission analysis reveals in what ways price variations are transmitted along the supply chain, and how supply chains of substitute products and different regional markets are also affected. In perfect markets, a price variation would be completely and instantaneously transmitted across the different levels of the supply chain: producers, the processing industry, retailers and consumers. However, empirical studies showthatfood markets are often imperfect, with anomalies or asymmetries in price transmission and distortions in the distribution of market benefits. This means, for instance, that a price increase at the consumer level may not be transmitted from retailers to processors and producers; yet, on the other hand, price falls may rapidly affect the upstream supply chain. Market concentration and the consequent exertion of market power in key segments of the supply chain can explain price transmission asymmetries and their distributional effects, but other factors may also be involved, such as transaction costs, scale economies, and imperfect information. During the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis, asymmetric price transmission in the beef supply chain and related meat markets determined distributional effects among sectors. After the spread of the BSE food scare, the fall in demand marginally affected the price paid to retailers, but producers and wholesalers suffered much more, in both price reductions and the time needed to recover to pre- crisis demand. Price transmission analysis investigates how animal health crises create different economic burdens for various types of stakeholder, and provides useful socioeconomic insights when used with other tools.
... To overcome this problem we compute W k as a 3rd degree polynomial, which have been successfully used to measure information decay and carryover effects of insert to us (e.g. Hassouneh et al., 2012;Serra, 2011): ...
... Our specification process resulted in different FSI measures subject to media usage intensity, depicted in Fig. 2, with a preferred lag length n = 9 and a maximum lag weight at m = 0 (calendar week one of 2011). Previous studies by Hassouneh et al. (2012) and Verbeke and Ward (2001) on the BSE scandal reported a maximum lag length of six months. Both studies based their choice of maximum lag length on Clarke's (1976) early work the cumulative effects of advertising on sales. ...
Consumer reactions to food scandals and their resulting economic implication are well documented. However, studies have typically neglected the roles that consumption habits and media usage behaviours may play in explaining household’s response to food safety incidences. In this study we develop a model of heterogeneous media usage intensity, information impacts and decay over time to estimate household’s behavioural responses to the 2011 German Dioxin scandal. We are specifically interested in determining the degree of heterogeneity in household’s short-term adjustments demand patterns versus persisting long-term consumption habits of meat products (chicken and pork) directly affected by the incident. The empirical analysis employs detailed household-level retail scanner and media usage data collected by the GfK Consumer Scan panel for a total of 16,023 households over a period of 104 calendar weeks. Results of dynamic correlated random effect Tobit models indicate an important role of unobserved heterogeneity in explaining household responses during the food scandal. We find strong empirical evidence supporting our hypothesis that short-term marginal adjustments in demand and propensity to buy affected products triggered by the negative impact of household media exposure were over-compensated by habit persistence. The question of how consumption patterns evolve over time in the presence of food scandals is expected to be of interest for both policy makers and the food industry. The potential biases in the projection of economic impacts resulting from simplifying assumptions of household’s response patterns to a proliferating numbers of food safety incidences has implications for risk management and public policy.
... Recent studies have integrated risk perceptions such as trust and fear into economic models (e.g. Meijboom, Visak, & Brom, 2006;Hassouneh, Radwan, Serra, & Gil, 2012). Heterogeneous consumer risk perceptions have been suggested and tested in the existing literature. ...
... The findings from Ortega, Wang, Wu, and Olynk (2011) indicates that while the trust in the government may seem to be eroding in the face of recent food safety scandals in China, consumers were less confident on non-government food safety controls than government-led control measures, and this seems to be consistent with our findings. It may take a long time to regain consumers' confidence and demand when consumers are already confused and oversaturated by the media (Hassouneh et al., 2012). ...
This article quantifies the impact of H7N9 bird flu on chicken demand and consumer willingness to pay (WTP) in China. We measure risk perception, fear and trust against actual reduction in consumption and stated change in WTP for safe chicken between 2012 and 2013. Through a survey conducted in each year on the same Chinese urban consumers, we found that the consumption of chicken never increased after the emergence of H7N9 in 2013, and WTP for safe chicken did not necessarily increase relative to generic risks associated with consuming chicken in 2012. Factors such as the fear of H7N9's spreading, the impact of distrust (especially the distrust in government) enhanced the deviation of consumption and WTP; and the sheer mentioning of H7N9 is more important and negative than whether it was associated with a risk-perception reducing or risk-perception elevating message given to consumers.
... Recently, studies have integrated risk perceptions such as trust and fear into economic models (e.g. Meijboom et al., 2006;Hassouneh et al., 2012). Heterogeneous consumer risk ...
... The findings from Ortega et al. (2011) indicates that while the trust in the government may seem to be eroding in the face of recent food safety scandals, consumers were less confident on non-government food safety controls than government-led control measures, and this seems to be consistent with our findings. It takes a long time to regain consumers" confidence and demand when consumers are already confused and oversaturated by the media (Hassouneh et al., 2012). ...
Selected Paper prepared for presentation for the 2015 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association and Western Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, July 26-28.
... Unlike parametric methods, non-parametric techniques are data driven and do not require any specific assumption about the functional form characterizing price behavior, being thus robust to misspecification issues. Hassouneh et al. (2012a) have recently studied the link between food and energy prices using multivariate local linear regression techniques, also known as non-parametric techniques. Subtle information is captured by these models that cannot be captured through the more rigid TVECMs. ...
... Also, they involve a limited number of regimes to capture price adjustment. Usually, however, price behavior has been found to be of a smoother nature and to require higher flexibility than the one allowed by a few number of regimes (Serra et al., 2011;Hassouneh et al., 2012a). It is thus important to use more flexible techniques that ...
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess price linkages and patterns of transmission among producer and consumer markets for apple in Slovenia.
Design/methodology/approach – Non-linear error correction models are applied. Non-linearities are allowed by means of threshold and multivariate local linear regression estimation techniques. Monthly prices over the period 2000-2011 are used in the empirical application.
Findings – Both techniques provide evidence of non-linearities in price adjustments. Findings suggest that producer and consumer prices tend to increase rather than decrease. Results also indicate that parametric threshold approaches may have difficulties in adequately representing price behavior dynamics.
Originality/value – The main contribution of this work to the literature relies on the fact that this is the first attempt to assess vertical price transmission in the apple sector in Central and Eastern European Country markets. Further, it is the first attempt to use multivariate local linear regression techniques in this context.
... These restrictions led to the loss of income for most women who could not pay back loans taken for businesses [5,25]. Overall, our findings support the argument that pandemics and disease outbreaks render vulnerable groups poorer and food insecure, as most vulnerable people lose their livelihood and are unable to buy food [3,17]. ...
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread economic disruptions, with government-imposed restrictions and lockdowns significantly affecting livelihoods globally. Burkina Faso, a country with pre-existing vulnerabilities in food security, experienced considerable challenges during this period. The aim of this study was to examine how COVID-19-related income losses is associated with self-reported food insecurity among women in Burkina Faso in 2020. The study also examined whether there was an increase in self-reported food insecurity among women during the COVID-19 restrictions compared with the pre-pandemic era.
Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) female survey, which included 3,499 women from Burkina Faso. This study examined the associations between socioeconomic variables, such as age, education, household income loss, and food insecurity. We conducted two analyses using logistic regression. The first analysis focused on self-reported food insecurity and its association with the socioeconomic variables, and the second analysis focused on whether there was an increase in self-reported food insecurity compared with pre-pandemic levels and its association with the socioeconomic factors. We controlled for relevant confounders in the analysis and presented the results as adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Results
Our findings indicated that 16.97% of women reported experiencing food insecurity during the pandemic period. Compared with women with no income loss, women who experienced partial household income loss were 1.82 times (95% CI: 0.98–3.38) more likely to report food insecurity, whereas those who experienced complete income loss were 5.16 times (95% CI: 2.28–9.43) more likely to report food insecurity. The study, however, did not find a statistically significant increase in self-reported food insecurity due to COVID-19 restrictions compared with pre-pandemic levels.
Conclusions
This study demonstrated that income loss due to COVID-19 restrictions profoundly affected women’s food security in Burkina Faso. The significant associations between income loss and increased food insecurity underscore the need for targeted interventions and safety nets to support women during public health crises.
... This study also uses online search behaviors as a proxy to predict the immediate impact of an outbreak on retail prices. Previous studies have underscored the importance of mediabased awareness indicators in forecasting livestock markets during outbreaks (e.g., Lloyd et al., 2001Lloyd et al., , 2006Livanis and Moss, 2005;Hassouneh et al., 2012;Wang et al., 2017;Acosta et al., 2020). This also adds to a growing literature that uses Google searches to predict market outcomes (e.g., Choi and Varian, 2012;Kim et al., 2019;Mišečka et al., 2019;Zamani et al., 2023). ...
This study analyzes the effect of avian influenza outbreaks on retail price premiums in the US poultry market. We estimate hedonic price models for eggs, chickens, and turkeys, controlling for quality characteristics, unobserved time, and regional factors. To measure the impact of avian influenza outbreaks we use two proxies. The first proxy is a measure of the number of new bird infections at the production level. The second proxy measures online search queries related to the outbreak. The results show that, on average, prices increase across product categories, i.e. egg, broiler, and turkey markets, during avian influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, we observe price convergence and reduced dispersion within product categories, which is consistent with the economic theory of asymmetric substitutability between conventional and premium products. Our analysis finds that the HPAI outbreak caused a reduction of the price gap between conventional and premium products.
... Condry et al. [12] and Mu [13] emphasized that avian influenza can have cross-regional effects on poultry product prices in areas not directly affected by the outbreak. Hassouneh et al. [14] explored the price effects of food panic information indices in the Egyptian poultry market under different regimes, demonstrating that under low-regime conditions, an index increase results in a minor decline in chicken prices, while under high-regime conditions, it leads to more substantial price volatility. Research on China's poultry industry includes Ding et al. [15], who analyzed the broiler market's switching characteristics during the avian influenza crisis. ...
Poultry products are crucial for meeting consumer needs and ensuring food sustainability. Unlike previous studies that examined the effect of only one animal disease on broiler prices, this study utilized a time-varying parametric vector auto-regressive (TVP-VAR) model to analyze the dynamic impacts of poultry and swine epidemics on price fluctuations in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of the broiler industry. The findings revealed the following: (1) Both poultry and swine epidemics significantly affected price dynamics in China’s broiler industry, with varying effects over time. (2) The impact of these epidemics varied across different segments of the broiler industry, with chicken prices most affected, followed by live chicken prices, then broiler chick prices, and lastly, broiler feed prices. (3) Poultry epidemics generally exerted negative impacts on broiler industry prices, whereas swine epidemics predominantly had positive effects. (4) The influence of these epidemics on broiler industry prices gradually weakened over extended periods. (5) Poultry epidemics impact broiler industry prices rapidly but briefly, in contrast to the delayed and more sustained effects of swine epidemics. The results of this study will be an important guide for the prevention and control of animal diseases in developing countries and for the sustainable development of the broiler industry.
... Where and are prices at different market levels and is the error correction term. [8] summarizes from Engle and [9,10,11] that the cointegration between two price series depends on the nature of the following autoregressive process: ∆ = −1 + , where ∆ is the first difference operator and ≠ 0 implies that deviations from the equilibrium are stationary and that the price series are cointegrated. If and are in long-run equilibrium relationship (co-integrated), their Error Correction Representation (ECR) takes the standard notation form as in equation (6). ...
Price transmission provides insight into vertical and horizontal integration of agricultural markets this will help in producer and consumer welfare. We have examined price transmission process between wholesale and retail markets by adopting Error correction model (ECM). This study has taken case of Red gram (Cajanuscajan) wholesale and retail markets in Bengaluru and Mumbai respectively It has used wholesale and retail prices data from secondary sources. The results revealed that retail price does not react completely to changes in producer price within one month. Dal price responds differently to seed price in its increasing and decreasing phases. Decreasing phase of seed price is associated with one lag, implying dal price to adjust slowly to seed price, say in a month’s time period. The estimated results were 0.98 in Bengaluru and 0.97 in Mumbai in the rising phase (ECT+) and 0.58 and 0.64 respectively in these markets in the falling phase (ECT-), suggesting that the positive deviations of price from long-run equilibrium are reduced faster in a month’s time period than the negative deviations in Bengaluru. Both values are significant but ECT+ induces a greater change in the tur dal than ECT- in Bengaluru. Where as in Mumbai values of ECT+ and ECT- are also showing faster changes almost. This clearly explains the asymmetry in red gram seed to dal price transmission in Bengaluru and Mumbai.
... Egypt's national economy is significantly impacted by the poultry business, which also ranks as one of the country's most important economic sectors (Attia et al., 2022). Investing in Egypt's poultry industry can yield substantial returns due to the country's sizable domestic market for the consumption of poultry meat, which also has great development potential on account of the country's growing population and increasing per capita consumption, which in turn is being driven by the country's improving economic situation (Hassouneh et al., 2012;ElMasry et al. 2017;Attia et al., 2022). In Egypt, the kinds of animal protein that are more easily accessible and have prices that are more affordable include chicken and egg products (Kandeil et al., 2018;Rohaim et al., 2021;Setta et al., 2023). ...
The recently detected clade 2.3.4.4 of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus in poultry encouraged us to study the efficacy of the 6 most extensively used saleable H5 poultry vaccinations (bivalent [AI + ND], Re-5 H5N1, H5N1, H5N3, monovalent AI, monovalent ND) with or without aqueous 8% neem (Azadirachta indica) leaf extract as an immunostimulant. One hundred thirty birds were randomly divided into 7 groups. Groups 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 were divided into 2 subgroups (G1a, G2a, G3a, G4a, G5a, G6a) and (G1b, G2b, G3b, G4b, G5b, G6b) with 10 birds each. Subgroups (G1a, G2a, G3a, G4a, G5a, G6a) received the (bivalent [AI + ND], Re-H5N1, H5N1, H5N3, monovalent AI, monovalent ND) vaccines, while subgroups (G1b, G2b, G3b, G4b, G5b, G6b) received the same previous vaccination but treated with neem leaf extract administrated 2 d before and after vaccination, and G7 with 10 birds was kept unvaccinated as positive control group. Clinical signs of the challenged group showed conjunctivitis, closed eyes, cyanosis in comb and wattle, ocular discharge, and greenish diarrhea, while postmortem lesions showed congested trachea and lung, hemorrhage on the shank, proventriculus, and pancreas; gelatinous fluid submandibular, congestion of all organs (septicemia), mottled spleen. The clinical signs and lesions were mild in neem leaf extract treated with bivalent vaccine and Re-H5N1 while moderate in monovalent vaccine and H5N3 with or without neem leaf extract treated and reached severe in the group immunized with H5N1 with or without neem leaf extract treatment. The protection levels in the bivalent vaccine (AI + ND), Re-5 H5N1, and H5N3 treated with neem leaf extract, were 80%, 80%, and 60%, respectively, while bivalent vaccine (AI + ND), Re-5 H5N1 and H5N3 without treatment were 60%, 60%, and 40%, respectively. The virus shedding was prevented in groups vaccinated with bivalent vaccine and Re-H5N1 vaccine treated with neem leaf extract, while decreased in the group vaccinated with H5N3 with neem leaf extract and Re-H5N1 without neem leaf extract compared with H5N3, H5N1, and monovalent vaccine. The immunological response after vaccination was stronger in the bivalent vaccine group than in the other commercial vaccine groups treated with neem leaf extract, with geometric mean titer (GMTs) of 315.2 and 207.9 at the third and fourth weeks, respectively. The use of immunostimulant antiviral medicinal plants, such as neem, completely protected chicken flocks against HPAI (H5N8) and prevented AI virus shedding, leading us to the conclusion that the use of bivalent vaccines induces a higher immune response than other different commercial vaccines.
... Since animal disease outbreaks constitute both a shock to supply (via costs) and demand (via preferences), it is essential to assess the extent to which demand-and/or supply-side shifters affect price adjustment. Research has employed media proxies 2 to estimate impulse responses that originate from demand-side shock (Livanis and Moss, 2005;Hassouneh et al., 2010;Hassouneh et al., 2012;Saghaian et al., 2008). To investigate price effects related to supply-side shocks, studies have used variables such as the number of animals culled or trade restrictions as proxies (Kim et al., 2019;Park et al., 2008). ...
Research on animal health economics has emphasised the importance of accounting for the indirect economic effects of animal disease outbreaks. Although recent studies have advanced in this direction by assessing consumer and producer welfare losses due to asymmetric price adjustments, potential over-shifting effects along the supply chain and spill-overs to substitute markets have been under-examined. This study contributes to this field of research by assessing the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak on the pork market in China. We employ impulse response functions estimated by local projection to calculate the price adjustments for consumers and producers, as well as the cross-effect in other meat markets. The results show that the ASF outbreak led to increases in both farmgate and retail prices but the rise in retail prices exceeded the corresponding change in farmgate prices. Furthermore, beef and chicken prices also rose, demonstrating the spill-over impacts of the outbreak to other markets. Overall, the evidence illustrates that a disruption in one part of a food system can have significant ripple effects across other parts of the system.
... But these measures cannot well reflect the severity of the influences of fatal diseases (Zheng and Ma 2018). Hence scholars are increasingly paying close attention to the opinions of internet users and big data in order to create alternative indexes that measure the impact of these diseases more accurately (Hassouneh et al. 2012;Fletcher 2014;Oppenheim et al. 2019;Zeng et al. 2019) . ...
African swine fever (ASF), a fatal disease outbroken in China in August 2018, has widely attracted social concern especially in the information era. The occurrence of ASF led to an imbalance between supply and demand in pork and other meat markets. As a result, meat prices fluctuated greatly during the past year in 2019. To measure ASF quantitatively, the internet public concern index about ASF was created using web crawler methods. The relationships between ASF and meat prices were analyzed based on time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive (TVP-VAR) model. The results showed that there were some differences in the impact size, direction and duration of ASF on the prices of pork, chicken, beef and mutton, and the characteristics of time variability and heterogeneity were obvious. At the same time, the impact of ASF on meat prices is not consistent with the trend and degree of ASF. The impulse intensity is strongly correlated with the strength and duration of ASF, and it is generally weak in the early stage and much stronger in the middle and late periods. The results indicate that macro regulations, monitoring and early-warning system, standardizing production and circulation, and the public opinion monitoring and guidance about ASF should be given more attention in future to stabilize the market expectations and to promote a smooth functioning of the livestock markets.
... This finding supports previous research findings on the impact of pandemics and outbreaks on different dimensions of food security (e.g. Oyefara 2007;Rich and Wanyoike 2010;Hassouneh et al. 2012). According to this evidence, disease outbreaks and pandemics threaten production (Ohadike 1981) and access to food mainly through losses of income and assets, which consequently inhibit their ability to buy food. ...
This Special Section of Ambio, Guest Edited by Jeffrey McNeeley and Mohan Munasinghe focuses on the social
and environmental impacts of the pandemic, and how society can best adapt to future conditions. The collection
of five articles covers several perspectives that need wider exposure, offers some new approaches that could have global relevance, and provides a useful introduction to the relevant literature for those who are seeking to explore policy options about how to build back better from a remarkably disruptive global pandemic. The key is to develop public, private sector, and governmental capacity to adapt to the changing conditions (especially sudden shocks like COVID-19), to facilitate a long-term global transformation that will make complex, interlinked socio-economic and ecological systems become more sustainable—as explored in another recent paper: Munasinghe, M. 2020. “COVID-19 and sustainable development”. International Journal of Sustainable Development 23: 1–24. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347732245_COVID-19_and_sustainable_development?_sg=jIfuiUvlDL0OLVVubq8-FirOYt75ffzzg26u2HqPdkIo0N6t6l049jvpzXhIymMG1cVQYeuW1i2Rkci_TtdlJLseNL4Ylk-vbshiEq8O.hez7bNnr_H9W2eEwh7QNee-wBEu-uvtgquwC5di1hxlg5f2Y9dM-Pd1vHFtcRV091yGc4nv3l6XjtmUdQHdvSQ
... Some of the barriers like revenue problems due to lower sales value, reduced production, harvest losses due to migration of workers, difficulties in accessing the output markets, eroded liquidity, and led the capital shortage for the next cycle of crop production. A lower sales revenue and capital shortage influenced the purchasing decisions of an individual farmer, for the 2020 monsoon Kharif cropping season (July -November) and hence, the working of the entire value chain (Hassouneh et al. 2012). The reduced sales of agricultural products and reduced cash flows resulted in a liquidity crunch and the traders' ability to maintain stocks of critical inputs (iDE 2020). ...
The Agri-food Supply Chains (AFSC) dealing with perishable items have suffered a lot due to the COVID 19 pandemic. During this uncertain time, developing resiliency has become a priority for management. Therefore, the main purpose of the study is to explore the impact of COVID-19 on AFSC and the possible strategies for improving the resilience of the AFSC. Impacts on AFSC and possible strategies are explored through the literature review and experts’ opinions. The importance rating of impacts of COVID-19 on AFSC is determined using the Best-Worst Method (BWM). These impacts are further correlated with the strategies for improving the resilience of AFSC using Quality Function Deployment (QFD). The findings of the study will help farmers, food processors, distributors, and retailers to maintain the uninterrupted flow of food items from farmers to end-users during the uncertain business environment. It will also contribute to formulating effective policies by the government and other stakeholders for improving the resilience of AFSCs.
... This finding supports previous research findings on the impact of pandemics and outbreaks on different dimensions of food security (e.g. Oyefara 2007;Rich and Wanyoike 2010;Hassouneh et al. 2012). According to this evidence, disease outbreaks and pandemics threaten production (Ohadike 1981) and access to food mainly through losses of income and assets, which consequently inhibit their ability to buy food. ...
Like the rest of the world, African countries are reeling from the health, economic and social effects of COVID-19. The continent’s governments have responded by imposing rigorous lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus. The various lockdown measures are undermining food security, because stay at home orders have among others, threatened food production for a continent that relies heavily on agriculture as the bedrock of the economy. This article draws on quantitative data collected by the GeoPoll, and, from these data, assesses the effect of concern about the local spread and economic impact of COVID-19 on food worries. Qualitative data comprising 12 countries south of the Sahara reveal that lockdowns have created anxiety over food security as a health, economic and human rights/well-being issue. By applying a probit model, we find that concern about the local spread of COVID-19 and economic impact of the virus increases the probability of food worries. Governments have responded with various efforts to support the neediest. By evaluating the various policies rolled out we advocate for a feminist economics approach that necessitates greater use of data analytics to predict the likely impacts of intended regulatory relief responses during the recovery process and post-COVID-19.
... Under a perfect competition market structure, the economic theory shows that a price change in one market will originate similar price changes in related markets. Different empirical studies have however found price dynamics to differ from this theoretical competitive behavior (von-Cramon-Taubadel, 1998;Serra and Goodwin, 2003;Ben-Kaabia and Gil, 2007;Serra et al. 2011;Hassouneh et al., 2012). Though a great number of studies on vertical price transmission have been conducted to characterize how prices are transmitted along the food marketing chain, few light has been shed on the factors driving different price transmission mechanisms. ...
... On the other hand, the impact of animal disease on meat prices varies according to the type and the magnitude of the illness [6,7]. The size of the impact is highest at the farm level compared to wholesale and retail levels. ...
This paper examines the impact of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks on meat prices in Malaysia (i.e., at wholesale and retail of beef, imported mutton and mutton) from January 2000 to December 2015. The data were analyzed using time series methods (i.e. unit root test and error correction model). The results demonstrate that frequent FMD outbreaks have significant impacts on meat prices in Malaysia. Most of the drops in prices occurred within a short period of time. Due to FMD outbreaks, several meat price margins took a long time to recover, while some price margins improved quickly. This may occur due to the FMD reduces the amount of meat that an animal can produce, and animals affected by this disease require some time to recover. High demand with low supply will consequently cause an increase in the price of meat.
... Tools such as the Error Correction Models (ECM), Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) and cointegration were applied for studying pandemics and their economic impact (Cavicchioli and Pistoresi, 2019;Shi and Li, 2017;Sharifi et al., 2014;Hassouneh et al., 2012;Jiang and Liu, 2011). The Threshold Cointegration Error Correction Model (T-ECM) has been adopted mainly in term structure theory (Enders and Siklos, 2001;Gałecki and Osińska, 2019). ...
https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1btqe%7EfX6E-or(50 days' free ac ) The COVID-19 brings back the debate about the impact of disease outbreaks in economies and financial markets. The error correction terms (ECT) and cointegration processing tools have been applied in studies for identifying possible transmission mechanisms between distinct time series. This paper adopts the vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate the dynamic coupling between the pandemics (e.g., the COVID-19, EBOLA, MERS and SARS) and the evolution of key stocks exchange indices (e.g., Dow-Jones, S&P 500, EuroStoxx, DAX, CAC, Nikkei, HSI, Kospi, S&P ASX, Nifty and Ibov). The results show that the shocks caused by the diseases significantly affected the markets. Nonetheless, except for the COVID-19, the stock exchange indices reveal a sustained and fast recovering when an identical length time window of 79 days is analyzed. In addition, our findings contribute to point a higher volatility for all financial indices during the COVID-19, a strong impact over the Ibov-Brazil and its poor recover when compared to the other indices. Share link (50 days free): https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1btqe%7EfX6E-or
... They showed that only producer prices corrected disequilibria caused by the food scare, meaning that producer margins were squeezed, whereas retail margins remained unaffected. Hassouneh et al. (2012) considered the impact of food scares on prices in developing countries. Using a smooth transition vector error correction model and an FSI as the transition variable, they reported that the AI crisis in Egypt affected prices along the poultry supply chain differently. ...
The economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks have been widely discussed in the literature. Most authors have centred their attention on estimating the direct costs. Recent studies have shown that the indirect economic effects might lead to equal or even higher welfare losses. This study aims to contribute to this field of research by assessing the effect of an animal disease outbreak on food market price dynamics in Mexico, accounting for the potential effect of an antitrust intervention. We employ a regime‐dependent vector error correction model and a connected scatterplot analysis. The results show that both the outbreak and the antitrust intervention caused structural breaks in food market price dynamics between producers and consumers, reflected in an increase in the absolute component of the marketing margin, with serious food security implications.
... These in turn could impact input purchasing decisions, especially for the 2020 monsoon kharif cropping season that commenses in July. The aggregate economic impacts of these developments are likely to be transferred along agricultural value chains (Saghaian et al. 2008;Hassouneh et al. 2012). In addition, a reduction in sales of agricultural inputs is likely to translate into reduced cash flows for retailers and wholesalers, which may lead to a liquidity crunch that can impact dealers' ability to maintain stocks of critical inputs (iDE 2020). ...
In the context of developing countries, early evidence suggests that the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food production systems is complex, heterogenous, and dynamic. As such, robust monitoring of the impact of the health crisis and containment measures across agricultural value chains will likely prove vitally important. With Bangladesh as a case study, we discuss the building blocks of a comprehensive monitoring system for prioritizing and designing interventions that respond to food system disruptions from COVID-19 and preemptively avoid further cascading negative effects. We also highlight the need for parallel research that identifies pathways for enhancing information flow, analysis, and action to improve the efficiency and reliability of input and output value chains. In aggregate, this preliminary work highlights the building blocks of resilient food systems to external shocks such as COVID-19 pandemic in the context of developing nations. In doing so, we call attention to the importance of 'infection safe' agricultural input and output distribution logistics, extended social safety nets, adequate credit facilities, and innovative labor management tools alongside, appropriate farm mechanization. In addition, digital extension services, circular nutrient flows, enhanced storage facilities, as well as innovative and robust marketing mechanisms are required. These should be considered in parallel with effective international trade management policies and institutions as crucial supportive measures.
... She indicated that changes in inflation rate and economic activity had a strong positive effect on relative price variability. Hassouneh et al. (2012) investigated the impact of avian influenza on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector using VECM model. Their results showed that price adjustments to deviations from the market equilibrium parity depend on the magnitude of the avian influenza crisis. ...
Volatility and imperfect price transmission in food markets always impress the welfare of producers and consumers, especially in the developing countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the price relationship in vertical market levels (i.e. farm gate, wholesale and retail) of rice as a staple food for Iranians, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH). The data used was based on monthly observations of prices in Kamfiroz Rice Market from April 1997 to March 2015. Results showed that the direction of Granger causality and partial price transmission were from farm gate to retail market as well as from wholesale to farm gate level and retail market to wholesale, such that, if wholesale prices increase by 1%, farm gate prices will increase about 0.37%. Also, if retail prices increase by 1%, then wholesale prices will increase by about 0.36%. In addition, if farm gate prices increase by 1%, then retail prices will decrease by about 0.08%. Results also implied that retail and wholesale price volatilities have positive spillover effects on the volatility of farm gate prices (i.e. 0.50 and 0.31, respectively). In addition, retail prices are more sensitive to wholesale prices and more volatile (i.e. 0.56) than the others. Finally, in order to increase the transparency of information and increase the efficiency of price transmission in Kamfiroz Rice Market, it was suggested that marketing cooperatives of this product be increased and supported more.
... (iv) Food price risk caused by food scare. Using a STAR model and avian influenza food scare information index based on the Egyptian poultry sector, Hassouneh et al. [22] find that poultry price adjustments are determined by food scare extent, and food scare causes wholesale margins to decrease, whereas food scare leads retailer margins to increase owing to retail market power. Using a RSVECM and an avian influenza information index based on the Turkish poultry market, Camoglu, Serra, and Gil [23] have found that producer prices respond to food scares slowly, whereas retail prices are responsive to the food scare extent. ...
Background: Food safety incidents have aroused widespread public health concern, causing
food price risk. However, the causal paths remain largely unexplored in previous literature. This paper
sets out to identify the relations of local and spatial spillovers of food safety incidents and public
health concerns to food price risk in consumer markets within a setting with heterogeneous food safety
risk levels. Methods: (i) Theoretically, unlike prior work, this paper decomposes food safety risks into
food safety incidents (objective incident component) and public health concern (subjective concern
component). This article develops a theoretical framework of causality to capture the underlying
causal pathways motivated by the theories of limited attention and two-step flow of communication.
(ii) Empirically, using avian influenza shocks in China’s poultry markets as natural experiments,
this paper differentiates between low- and high-risk food and incidents. The article adopts dynamic
spatial panel models to analyze potential nonlinearity, moderation, and mediation in the spillover of
food safety risk to food price risk for a long panel of 30 provinces covering the November 2007 to
November 2017 period. Results: (i) Food safety incident alone only triggers high-risk food price risk,
not low-risk food price risk. (ii) Public health concern amplifies nonlinear food price risk triggered by
food safety incident. (iii) High-risk incident intensifies negative pressure of public health concern on
food price risk. (iv) Food safety incident indirectly affects high-risk food price risk through public
health concern. Conclusions: Using a setting with heterogeneous risk levels, this paper documents
that (i) food safety incident itself does not necessarily determine food price risk, whereas it is actually
public health concern that directly causes nonlinear food price risk; (ii) public health concern spillover
to food price risk is negatively moderated by high-risk incident, and (iii) food safety incident spillover
to high-risk food price risk is mediated by public health concern. The findings complement current
research by (i) elucidating the diverse impacts of food safety incident and public health concern on
food price risk, which are obscure in previous literature, and (ii) highlighting that heterogeneous
food and incident risk levels matter for determining food price risk spillover.
... (iv) Food price risk caused by food scare. Using a STAR model and avian influenza food scare information index based on the Egyptian poultry sector, Hassouneh et al. [22] find that poultry price adjustments are determined by food scare extent, and food scare causes wholesale margins to decrease, whereas food scare leads retailer margins to increase owing to retail market power. Using a RSVECM and an avian influenza information index based on the Turkish poultry market, Camoglu, Serra, and Gil [23] have found that producer prices respond to food scares slowly, whereas retail prices are responsive to the food scare extent. ...
Background: Food safety incidents have aroused widespread public health concern, causing food price risk. However, the causal paths remain largely unexplored in previous literature. This paper sets out to identify the relations of local and spatial spillovers of food safety incidents and public health concerns to food price risk in consumer markets within a setting with heterogeneous food safety risk levels. Methods: (i) Theoretically, unlike prior work, this paper decomposes food safety risks into food safety incidents (objective incident component) and public health concern (subjective concern component). This article develops a theoretical framework of causality to capture the underlying causal pathways motivated by the theories of limited attention and two-step flow of communication. (ii) Empirically, using avian influenza shocks in China’s poultry markets as natural experiments, this paper differentiates between low- and high-risk food and incidents. The article adopts dynamic spatial panel models to analyze potential nonlinearity, moderation, and mediation in the spillover of food safety risk to food price risk for a long panel of 30 provinces covering the November 2007 to November 2017 period. Results: (i) Food safety incident alone only triggers high-risk food price risk, not low-risk food price risk. (ii) Public health concern amplifies nonlinear food price risk triggered by food safety incident. (iii) High-risk incident intensifies negative pressure of public health concern on food price risk. (iv) Food safety incident indirectly affects high-risk food price risk through public health concern. Conclusions: Using a setting with heterogeneous risk levels, this paper documents that (i) food safety incident itself does not necessarily determine food price risk, whereas it is actually public health concern that directly causes nonlinear food price risk; (ii) public health concern spillover to food price risk is negatively moderated by high-risk incident, and (iii) food safety incident spillover to high-risk food price risk is mediated by public health concern. The findings complement current research by (i) elucidating the diverse impacts of food safety incident and public health concern on food price risk, which are obscure in previous literature, and (ii) highlighting that heterogeneous food and incident risk levels matter for determining food price risk spillover.
... The EU's 2016 almond production was 296,000 tons. 5 Alternative approaches for measuring scientific awareness would be to consider the comparative weight of favorable versus unfavorable articles on a given issue(Brown and Schrader, 1990;Chern and Zuo, 1997) or the count of newspaper articles(Hassouneh et al., 2012). We opted for Smith et al.'s index, which may be correlated with the awareness of the aflatoxin problems. ...
Food safety concerns about the risk of aflatoxin (AF) contamination have been growing in many regions, particularly in the European Union (EU). To protect consumers from health risks, the EU has established strict standards for maximum acceptable AF levels in food products; these standards have changed several times. This article examines the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) database, which contains notifications on border controls on AF levels in tree nuts and peanuts. A count data model was used to analyze the impact of political economy considerations, past alerts, and path-dependence effects on RASFF border controls. Policy changes, including the harmonization and relaxing of the EU's AF standards, significantly affected the frequency of border controls, with diverse effects among exporting countries. It is believed that the present study provides some insights to the modeling of food standards for explanation or forecasting purposes.
... These figures explain the economic relevance of the activities siding animal and crop production and how health concerns in the food sector may have huge impacts on economy and society. Food scares have provided clear examples of the consequences of human, animal, and environmental health issues affecting the food supply chain, by showing that the collateral effects on economic activities may be costlier than the direct burden of the diseases (Adinolfi et al., 2016;Aragrande and Canali, 2017;Buzby et al., 1998;Hassouneh et al., 2010Hassouneh et al., , 2012Hussain and Dawson, 2013;Livanis and Moss, 2005;Lloyd et al., 2006). ...
Challenges calling for integrated approaches to health, such as the One Health (OH) approach, typically arise from the intertwined spheres of humans and animals, and the ecosystems constituting their environment. Initiatives addressing such wicked problems commonly consist of complex structures and dynamics. The Network for Evaluation of One Health (NEOH) proposes an evaluation framework anchored in systems theory to address the intrinsic complexity of OH initiatives and regards them as subsystems of the context within which they operate. Typically, they intend to influence a system with a view to improve human, animal, and environmental health. The NEOH evaluation framework consists of four overarching elements, namely: (1) the definition of the OH initiative and its context; (2) the description of its theory of change with an assessment of expected and unexpected outcomes; (3) the process evaluation of operational and supporting infrastructures (the ‘OH- ness’); and (4) an assessment of the association(s) between the process evaluation and the outcomes produced. It relies on a mixed-methods approach by combining a descriptive and qualitative assessment with a semi-quantitative scoring for the evaluation of the degree and structural balance of ‘OH-ness’ (summarised in an OH-index and OH-ratio, respectively) and conventional metrics for different outcomes in a multi-criteria-decision analysis. We provide the methodology for all elements, including ready-to-use Microsoft Excel spread-sheets for the assessment of the ‘OH-ness’ (Element 3) and further helpful worksheets as electronic supplements. Element 4 connects the results from the assessment of the ‘OH-ness’ to the methods and metrics described in Chapters 4 to 6 in this handbook. Finally, we offer some guidance on how to produce recommendations based on the results. The presented approach helps researchers, practitioners, policy makers and evaluators to conceptualise and conduct evaluations of integrated approaches to health and enables comparison and learning across different OH activities, thereby facilitating decisions on strategy and resource allocation. Examples of the application of this framework have been described in eight case studies, published in a dedicated Frontiers Research Topic (https://www.frontiersin.org/research- topics/5479).
... For instance, Brummer et al. [49] adopt a Markov switching vector error correction model to investigate asymmetries in the wheat market. Hassouneh et al. [50] adopt a STAR model (smoothing transition autoregressive model) to conclude on vertical price transmission in the poultry sector. ...
... Chern and Zuo (1997) developed the cumulative method employed by Brown and Schrader (1990) by introducing new fat and cholesterol information index considering then a differentiated carryover weight for favorable and unfavorable articles. Based on Chern and Zuo (1997), Hassouneh et al (2012) developed a food scare information index, using a monthly count of newspaper articles published in the most popular Egyptian newspaper, to analyze the effect of the avian influenza on price transmission along the Egyptian poultry marketing chain. ...
Due to the toxic effect of Aflatoxin (AF), the European Union has implemented strict standards regarding its maximum acceptable levels in tree nuts and peanuts. This paper evaluates the impact of changes in AF standards, a lessening of the maximum residue levels on the frequency of border controls. To do that, a count data model was proposed and estimated to test the determinants of border controls on EU imports of these products, based on political economy considerations, past alerts, path dependence effects and other scientific and economic variables. The revision of these standards has involved changes in controls and border refusals as measured by notifications at the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed. Changes in AF standards are estimated to have a significant impact on the frequency of border controls.
... Chern and Zuo (1997) developed the cumulative method employed by Brown and Schrader (1990) by introducing new fat and cholesterol information index considering then a differentiated carryover weight for favorable and unfavorable articles. Based on Chern and Zuo (1997), Hassouneh et al (2012) developed a food scare information index, using a monthly count of newspaper articles published in the most popular Egyptian newspaper, to analyze the effect of the avian influenza on price transmission along the Egyptian poultry marketing chain. ...
Due to the toxic effect of Aflatoxin (AF), the European Union has implemented strict standards regarding its maximum acceptable levels in tree nuts and peanuts. This paper evaluates the impact of changes in AF standards, a lessening of the maximum residue levels on the frequency of border controls. To do that, a count data model was proposed and estimated to test the determinants of border controls on EU imports of these products, based on political economy considerations, past alerts, path dependence effects and other scientific and economic variables. The revision of these standards has involved changes in controls and border refusals as measured by notifications at the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed. Changes in AF standards are estimated to have significant impact on the frequency of border controls.
... During the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak in the UK beef market, retail prices declined, but less than farm prices (Lloyd et al., 2001). Similar conclusions were reached in investigation of the impact of a BSE outbreak on the Spanish beef market, and later on the impact of avian influenza on the Egyptian poultry market (Hassouneh et al., 2010(Hassouneh et al., , 2012. Studies of vertical price transmission in Serbian dairy market (Popovic et al., 2013;Popovic and Radovanov, 2010) confirm also that information asymmetry exists and world milk price signals do not pass quickly and equally through subsequent levels of the Serbian milk supply chain. ...
The increasing trend of food scandal crises is not well followed in recent studies of spatial price transmission. This paper analyses the impact on the domestic market of an Aflatoxin M1 outbreak in the Serbian dairy sector during 2013/2014 using a spatial price transmission approach. Monthly farm milk prices in Serbia for the period 2007/2014 were contrasted with leading dairy exporting countries New Zealand, USA and Germany, which did not have a food scare in their dairy sectors. To estimate the impacts a Markov-switching vector error-correction model was utilized. For all four dairy markets the model identified two price change regimes: standard and extreme. Although it was predictable, an extreme regime was not identified during the Aflatoxin M1 crises in Serbia because of some specific characteristics of its dairy production. The results suggest that the Aflatoxin M1 outbreak 'froze' the Serbian dairy market and temporally disconnected it from the world milk market. Farmer's prices fell below their long-run equilibrium levels. The total loss of the Serbian farm-level dairy sector during the crisis reached up to 96.2 million EUR. These 'missed opportunity' significantly slowed investment in the dairy sector.
... Parameters also indicate that the degree of producer price response is higher than the consumer price adjustment. These results are expected and are in line with previous literature that suggests that upstream prices generally do all the adjustment compared to consumer prices that are sticky and slowly-responsive to market shocks (Goodwin and 9 Holt, 1999;Peltzman, 2000;Serra and Goodwin, 2003;Ben Kaabia and Gil, 2007;Hassouneh et al., 2012). ...
Interdependence between first and second moments of producer and consumer wheat prices in Slovenia is assessed. A joint estimation of a threshold vector error and MGARCH models with exogenous variables in the conditional mean and conditional covariance equations are applied for such purpose. Results indicate that price-level adjustments mainly favor retailers by increasing their marketing margins. Important second-moment interactions are also identified. Increases in international wheat stocks reduce producer prices, while higher interest rates increase their instability.
... Parameters also indicate that the degree of producer price response is higher than the consumer price adjustment. These results are expected and are in line with previous literature that suggests that upstream prices generally do all the adjustment compared to consumer prices that are sticky and slowly-responsive to market shocks (Goodwin and 9 Holt, 1999;Peltzman, 2000;Serra and Goodwin, 2003;Ben Kaabia and Gil, 2007;Hassouneh et al., 2012). ...
Interdependence between first and second moments of producer and consumer wheat prices in Slovenia is assessed, in light of the recent major historical events that the country has undergone, as well as the recent rumours of cartel agreements between millers causing a decline in farm-gate prices, while leaving consumer prices untouched. A threshold vector error correction and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with exogenous variables is applied. Results indicate that price-level adjustments mainly favour retailers by increasing their marketing margins. Important second-moment interactions are also identified. Increases in international wheat stocks reduce producer prices, while higher interest rates increase their instability.
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... 4. Research on the effect of sanitary shocks on market power and price transmission has been made for other economic sectors. This is the case of the effect that the Avian Influenza had on the poultry industry (Park et al., 2008;Saghaian et al., 2008;Hassouneh, et al., 2012;Çamoğlu, et al., 2015), and that the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy had on the cattle industry (Lloyd et al., 2006;Park et al., 2008;Hassouneh et al., 2010). 5. Before 1990, Norway was the dominant supplier of farmed Atlantic salmon in the U.S. ...
We analyzed whether a competitive market can behave non-competitively when it is temporarily outside of its long-run equilibrium trajectory. Our data sample allowed us to examine the functioning of the Atlantic salmon market in the United States when experiencing a sharp reduction in imports because of a sanitary outbreak that affected its Chilean suppliers. We estimated the Steen and Salvanes extension of the Bresnahan–Lau model. Our results show that in the long run, the market behaves competitively. However, there is evidence of a disequilibrium effect on price in the recovery phase of the crisis. The decrease in the price observed during the recovery was caused by supply overshooting, whereas the increase in salmon’s market price observed right after the disease outbreak cannot be attributed to reduced Chilean supply.
Link: http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/i4kc27uxTxijrP6Zae8f/full
... Under a perfect competition market structure, the economic theory shows that a price change in one market will originate similar price changes in related markets. Different empirical studies have however found price dynamics to differ from this theoretical competitive behavior (von-Cramon-Taubadel, 1998;Serra and Goodwin, 2003;Ben-Kaabia and Gil, 2007;Serra et al. 2011;Hassouneh et al., 2012). Though a great number of studies on vertical price transmission have been conducted to characterize how prices are transmitted along the food marketing chain, few light has been shed on the factors driving different price transmission mechanisms. ...
This chapter characterizes price transmission processes along a wide range of different food marketing chains within the European Union (EU) and explains the differences and/or the similarities that exist between them. Results demonstrate the occurrence of symmetric price adjustment in two-thirds of the markets considered. Producer prices are found to adjust more rapidly to long-run disequilibrium than do consumer prices. The production share within the EU, the export and production specialization ratios of each country, the relevance of vertical contracts within the chain, and the perishability of the given food product are found to affect price adjustments along the food marketing chain.
... (2010) He highlighted the challenges of food safety issues in developing countries due to ignorance and trade inequality. And concluded that most developing countries lack the scientific capability and regulatory framework to ensure food safety Hassouneh et al. (2012) They performed an assessment on the effect of avian flu food supply and price in Egypt poultry market. They used bivariate smooth transition vector error correction (STVECM) to estimate the relationship of the food scare through food scare information index (FSII). ...
Food safety is one of the main concerns in many countries throughout the world. Failure to ensure food safety would result in significant health concerns to the general public. Despite much effort to improve food safety, many cases of food safety issues or even crises have happened around the world from time to time; it results in undesirable health problems. One of the recent food safety scandals that happened in Taiwan in 2014 was related to the usage of gutter/tainted oil by several oil suppliers. The series of food safety incidents affected 1256 businesses. In order to ensure a responsible supply chain, we analysed the problem using the theory of constraint. Some issues towards the root cause of the problem are suggested. The objective of our study emphasises on building a responsible supply chain and food safety regulation in order to improve food safety in Taiwan.
... Also, they involve a limited number of regimes to capture price adjustment. Usually, however, price behavior has been found to be of a smoother nature and to require higher flexibility than the one allowed by a few number of regimes (Serra et al., 2011;Hassouneh et al., 2012a). It is thus important to use more flexible techniques that restrict discontinuities to a special case. ...
Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to assess price linkages and patterns of transmission among producer and consumer markets for apple in Slovenia.
Design/methodology/approach
– Non-linear error correction models are applied. Non-linearities are allowed by means of threshold and multivariate local linear regression estimation techniques. Monthly prices over the period 2000-2011 are used in the empirical application.
Findings
– Both techniques provide evidence of non-linearities in price adjustments. Findings suggest that producer and consumer prices tend to increase rather than decrease. Results also indicate that parametric threshold approaches may have difficulties in adequately representing price behavior dynamics.
Originality/value
– The main contribution of this work to the literature relies on the fact that this is the first attempt to assess vertical price transmission in the apple sector in Central and Eastern European Country markets. Further, it is the first attempt to use multivariate local linear regression techniques in this context.
... Their results suggest strong energy and food price links because they identified the existence of a long-run relationship among the prices. A recent application of smooth transition models in vertical price transmission analysis can be found in the study by Hassouneh et al. (2012), who use a bivariate STVECM to investigate the effects of avian influenza on price transmission in the Egyptian poultry market. These authors developed an avian influenza food scare information index that was used as a transition variable in the model. ...
The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of governmental market interventions
in Serbia, among them a wheat export ban, on the country’s integration into
the international wheat market and the domestic wheat-to-bread supply chain during
the global commodity price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11. By applying two
regime-dependent price transmission models (i.e. Markov-switching models), we
help to clarify the impact of the governmental market interventions on two different
price transmission contexts: the horizontal one, where we analyze the price
transmission and market integration between the Serbian and the world wheat
markets; and the vertical one, where we analyze the price transmission mechanisms
within the Serbian wheat-to-bread supply chain. Furthermore, we conducted
simulations of flour and bread production costs and the bakers’ and retailers’
profits in order to identify who benefited from and who lost due to the extensive
governmental interventions.
The empirical results of our first price transmission model are based on the weekly
wheat grower prices in Serbia and the free on board (FOB) wheat prices in France
(Rouen), which are used as a measure of the world wheat price. The data covers a
period from January 2005 until November 2009. In our second price transmission
model, we use weekly wheat grower prices and weekly flour prices in Serbia covering
the period from April 2005 until August 2011. For additional simulations,
we use the monthly spot market prices for different flour types and monthly retail
bread prices from April 2005 until October 2011.
First, we analyze the impact of governmental policy interventions, especially the
wheat export ban, on the Serbian wheat market and its integration with the world
market within the spatial price transmission model. Our results suggest that inconsistent
policy measures and their faulty sequence counteracted the expected
price-dampening effects of the export ban. The market equilibrium was disrupted
and market instability increased, particularly after the cancellation of the export
ban.
Second, we conduct the vertical price transmission analysis to identify the impact
of the policy interventions on price dynamics along the wheat-to-bread supply
chain in Serbia. Our results suggest that both small and large industrial mills increased
their margins, and thus profits during and especially in the aftermath of
the market interventions.
Third, we simulate the bread producer price, the bread wholesale price and the
distributable bread margin in order to identify whether the significant wheat and
flour price increases during the observed period were the main driving factors for
the increase in retail bread prices. Our results indicate that large bread producers
and retailers used the extensive governmental interventions to increase the price
of bread, which was wrongly justified by the increase of wheat and flour spot market prices.
Thus, our results suggest that the large bread producers and retailers
profited even more substantially from the crisis policies.
Fourth, considering the obtained results from each level of the supply chain and
taking into account the consumers’ expenditures for food (especially for bread
consumption), we analyze whether the consumers benefited from the governmental
interventions. Contrary to expectations, our results indicate that the consumers
bore the largest burden during the period of the governmental interventions by
being confronted with increasing bread prices.
Finally, the obtained empirical results allowed us to identify alternative policy
measures that the Serbian government could use in a possible future crisis. Accounting
for the theoretical welfare considerations and plausible policy options,
we argue that the Serbian government should concentrate mainly on the most
vulnerable consumers by strengthening existing safety nets. In addition, trade liberalization
(e.g. cancellation of the wheat import tariff) should be the first, best
option, rather than export restrictions (i.e. an export ban as in 2007/08 and 2011).
Crises such as natural disasters and public health emergencies generate vast amounts of text data, making it challenging to classify the information into relevant categories. Acquiring expert-labeled data for such scenarios can be difficult, leading to limited training datasets for text classification by fine-tuning BERT-like models. Unfortunately, traditional data augmentation techniques only slightly improve F1-scores. How can data augmentation be used to obtain better results in this applied domain? In this paper, using neural network explicability methods, we aim to highlight that fine-tuned BERT-like models on crisis corpora give too much importance to spatial information to make their predictions. This overfitting of spatial information limits their ability to generalize especially when the event which occurs in a place has evolved and changed since the training dataset has been built. To reduce this bias, we propose GeoNLPlify,1 a novel data augmentation technique that leverages spatial information to generate new labeled data for text classification related to crises. Our approach aims to address overfitting without necessitating modifications to the underlying model architecture, distinguishing it from other prevalent methods employed to combat overfitting. Our results show that GeoNLPlify significantly improves F1-scores, demonstrating the potential of the spatial information for data augmentation for crisis-related text classification tasks. In order to evaluate the contribution of our method, GeoNLPlify is applied to three public datasets (PADI-web, CrisisNLP and SST2) and compared with classical natural language processing data augmentations.
Disease emergence in livestock is a product of environment, epidemiology, and economic forces. The environmental and epidemiological factors contributing to novel pathogen emergence in humans have been studied extensively, but the two-way relationship between farm microeconomics and outbreak risk has received comparably little attention. We introduce a game-theoretic model where farmers produce and sell two goods one of which (e.g. pigs, poultry) is susceptible to infection by a pathogen potentially dangerous to humans. We model market effects and epidemiological effects at both the individual farm level and the community level. The addition of a second good into this modeling framework ensures that producing a unit of livestock has an opportunity cost. We find that in the case of low demand elasticity for livestock meat, the presence of an animal pathogen causing large production losses can lead to a bistable system where two outcomes are possible, depending on the economic inputs into the system. One outcome is succesful disease control. The second outcome, a potentially dangerous one, is a stable equilibrium where farmers slaughter their animals at a low rate, face substantial production losses, but maintain large herds because of the appeal of high meat market prices, therefore maintaining disease circulation. We show the potential epidemiological benefits to (i) policies aimed at stabilizing livestock product prices, (ii) subsidies for alternative agricultural activities during epidemics, and (iii) diversifying agricultural production and sources of proteins available to consumers.
Food is of vital importance for human life. Consumers prefer healthy, safe and quality food. In recent years, consumers are prone towards ready to eat, ready to serve and ready to cook foods. Therefore, to maintain the long shelf life of these foods without affecting their sensory attributes, the preservation of foods is a major challenge for producers. Food moves through many levels, from production to storage domains. During these phases, several physical, chemical and microbiological factors are responsible for deterioration in quality. Spoilage of food is a threat to food security. In this article, the
role of different type of microbes in food processing, methods for detecting spoilage and preventive measures have been explored. The beneficial functions of microbes have also been highlighted in this article.
In Indonesia the agricultural sector plays a key role for broad based economic development in rural areas. Rubber is one of the most important crops, and Indonesia is the second largest producer in the world. However, a high level of concentration in the processing industry limits the spread of the incoming wealth. In Jambi province on Sumatra, the strong market power of the crumb rubber factories is based on cartelization. This has tremendously negative welfare effects on the rural population, effects which are also likely to be relevant for many other provinces throughout Indonesia. For the society in general and policy makers specifically, it is essential to know about the extent of the whole issue. Thus we study the price transmission at these factories and assess their true market power. We make use of the non-parametric estimation technique of penalized splines in order to understand the error correcting process without having to make a priori assumptions about it. We then estimate an Auto-Regressive Asymmetric Threshold Error Correction Model to quantify both the extent of the threshold effect as well as the rents that are redistributed from the farmers to the factories. The analysis is based on daily price information from a period of four years (2009-2012). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to quantify the additional distributional consequences of intertemporal marketing margin manipulation based on cartelistic market power.
After implementation of the Real Plan in July 1994 by the Brazilian government, the industrial chicken was established in consumer preference causing change in their spending habits. This change was attributed in great part due to their affordability to the consumer. This article aims to analyze the price transmission elasticity of poultry in the state of São Paulo market and identify which market level focuses on the greatest power of pricing, either at the producer level, wholesale and retail. By studying São Paulo’s poultry market, we intend to provide information to support decision making by managers of the production chain. Furthermore, São Paulo is the largest poultry consumer market in the country. Therefore, it is used in the treatment of poultry price data at the producer level, wholesale and retail the econometric model of Vector Autoregressive (VAR). The results found by analyzing the variance decomposition of forecast errors demonstrate that the producer has a high power setting of prices of poultry in the São Paulo’s market, having direct influence on the formation of prices both at wholesale as well as retail.
Purpose
In Indonesia, rubber is the most valuable export crop produced by small scale agriculture and plays a key role for inclusive economic development. This potential is likely to be not fully exploited. The observed concentration in the crumb rubber processing industry raises concerns about the distribution of export earnings along the value chain. Asymmetric price transmission (APT) is observed. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
This study investigates the price transmission between international prices and the factories’ purchasing prices on a daily basis. An auto-regressive asymmetric error correction model is estimated to find evidence for APT. In a subsequent step the rents that are redistributed from factories to farmers are calculated. The study then provides estimations of the size of this redistribution under different scenarios.
Findings
The results suggest that factories do indeed transmit prices asymmetrically, which has substantial welfare implications: around USD3 million are annually redistributed from farmers to factories. If the price transmission was only half as asymmetric as it is observed, the majority of this redistribution was re-diverted.
Originality/value
This study combines the approaches of non-parametric and parametric estimation techniques of estimating APT processes with a welfare perspective to quantify the distributional consequences of this intertemporal marketing margin manipulation. Especially the calculation of different scenarios of alternative price transmissions is a novelty. The data set of prices on such a disaggregated level and high frequency as required by this approach is also unique.
In this study, we evaluated different factors affecting sero-surveillance against avian influenza in chickens. From November 2010 till December 2013; a total of 382 blood samples for serum and 262 eggs were collected from different chicken commercial farms for haeagglutination inhibition (HI) testing. In case of suspicion of influenza infection; tracheal and cloacal swaps and organ samples were collected for virus isolation and identification. The variant A/chicken/Egypt/VRLCU67/2011(H5N1) and the classic A/chicken/Egypt/13VIR3729-4/2013(H5N1) viruses were isolated from a layer and a broiler farms; respectively. Cross-HI and antigenic relatedness testing revealed that the variant strain is distantly related to other tested Egyptian viruses with R% less than 50%. HI testing of sera and egg yolk using the commercial H5N2 Mexican antigen and the isolated viruses revealed the significant difference between results obtained by H5N2 or the classic isolate compared to the variant one. Egg yolk testing for antibodies compared to serum showed high correlation (r=0.79 - 0.98), putting in mind the type of HI antigen used. Using LPAI H5N2 as HI antigens may lead to miss interpretation of HI results, as it showed antigenic diversity to the variant isolate. Birds vaccinated with conventional live Infectious Bursal Disease (IBD) vaccines showed HI titers against AI vaccination lower than those birds vaccinated with IBD sub-unit vaccine; due to the possible effect of live IBD vaccines on the bursa of fabricous, and hence, IBD sub-unit vaccine is more preferred.
Comprehensive overview of properties, replication, evolution, emergence and epidemiology of the influenzas viruses, especially those having zoonotic potential
Extensive description of the diseases, their diagnosis, prevention and control strategies of various influenza viruses
An all encompassing book on influenza viruses covering a wide spectrum of areas enriched with latest information for researchers as well as for professionals and veterinarians
This book provides salient information on all aspects of influenza/flu viruses affecting animals and humans. It specifically reviews the properties and replication of influenza viruses; their evolution and emergence; epidemiology; role of migratory birds in disease transmission; clinical signs in humans, animals, and poultry; pathogenesis and pathogenicity; public health importance and potential threats; diagnosis; prevention and control measures; and pandemic preparedness.
Influenza/flu viruses evolve continuously and jump species causing epidemics as well as pandemics in both human and animals. During the past 150 years, various strains of influenza virus like the Spanish flu, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, bird flu, and swine flu were responsible for high mortality in humans as well as birds. High mutation rates, antigenic shifts, drifts, reassortment phenomena, and the development of antiviral drug resistance all contribute to ineffective chemotherapy and vaccines against influenza viruses. Due to their devastating nature, high zoonotic implications, and high mortality in humans and poultry, they have a severe impact on the socioeconomic status of countries. Disease awareness, rapid and accurate diagnosis, surveillance, strict biosecurity, timely adoption of appropriate preventive and control measures, and pandemic preparedness are crucial to help in decreasing virus transmission, thus reducing clinical cases, deaths, and pandemic threats
In 2001, poultry production in Egypt and other middle-income countries totaled 37.5 million tons, compared with 29.3 million tons in high-income countries and only 3.6 million tons in low-income countries. The interaction between Egypt's domestic production and imports of meat and feeds—and government policies and their effect on the poultry indus-try—provides an example that may be applicable to other middle-income countries. This study projects Egypt's poultry and egg consumption in 2010, estimates poultry numbers (live birds) needed to satisfy this demand, and projects the derived feed requirements for the sector. Results indicate that Egypt's poultry industry is highly dependent on feed imports, with a dependency rate approaching 100 percent for soybeans and 48 percent for yellow corn in 2010. As Egypt and other middle-income countries face the challenge of greater liberalization under the World Trade Organization, the efficiency of domestic poultry industries will influence consumers, producers, and exporters competing to sell products into these growing markets.
The linkage among retail, wholesale, and shipping point prices for a select group of fresh vegetables is measured using Wolffram's
asymmetry model. Procedures for dealing with discontinuous time series are shown, and Granger's causality test is used to
show the direction of the price linkage. Wholesale prices are shown to lead both retail and shipping point prices. Asymmetry
in the retail-wholesale response indicates that wholesale price decreases are reflected at the retail more so than are wholesale
price increases. Wholesale price decreases are more fully passed through to the shipping point relative to wholesale increases.
Let n observations Y 1, Y 2, ···, Y n be generated by the model Y t = pY t−1 + e t , where Y 0 is a fixed constant and {e t } t-1 n is a sequence of independent normal random variables with mean 0 and variance σ2. Properties of the regression estimator of p are obtained under the assumption that p = ±1. Representations for the limit distributions of the estimator of p and of the regression t test are derived. The estimator of p and the regression t test furnish methods of testing the hypothesis that p = 1.
This article presents a procedure for estimating sales loss following a food contamination incident with application to the
case of heptachlor contamination of fresh fluid milk in Oahu, Hawaii, in 1982. A major finding is that media coverage following
the incident had a significant impact on milk purchases and that negative coverage had a larger effect than positive coverage.
This conclusion implies that public statements by producers or government to assure the public of safe food supplies may be
ineffective in restoring consumer confidence following the discovery of a food safety problem.
To better understand how information about potential health hazards influences food demand, this case study examines consumers’ responses to newspaper articles on avian influenza, informally referred to as bird flu. The focus here is on the response to bird flu information in Italy as news about highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) unfolded in the period October 2004 through October 2006, beginning after reports of the first outbreaks in Southeast Asia and extending beyond the point at which outbreaks were reported in Western Europe. Estimated poultry demand, as influenced by the volume of newspaper reports on bird flu, reveals the magnitude and duration of newspaper articles’ impacts on consumers’ food choices. Larger numbers of bird flu news reports led to larger reductions in poultry purchases. Most impacts were of limited duration, and all began to diminish within 5 weeks.
We study price transmission processes within EU pork markets after the implementation of the EU single market in 1993. We
compare results derived from non-parametric regressions with those obtained using alternative non-linear threshold models.
Both techniques support the hypothesis that prices are transmitted across spatially separate EU pig markets and provide evidence
for asymmetric price adjustments. They also suggest the existence of a range of price differentials where equilibrating price
adjustments are less intense. Non-parametric techniques often suggest a higher degree of price transmission than that implied
by threshold models.
This article addresses the dynamic impact of the 2005 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak on the Turkish poultry sector. Contemporary time-series analyses with historical decomposition graphs are used to address differences in monthly price adjustments between market levels along the Turkish poultry supply channel. The empirical results show that price adjustments are asymmetric with respect to both speed and magnitude along the marketing channel. Results also reveal a differential impact of the exogenous shock on producers and retailers. The findings have critical efficiency and equity implications for the supply-chain participants.
Asymmetric threshold vector error correction models are applied to monthly price data to analyse price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for a variety of dairy products in Spain. The results suggest that asymmetries affect a conspicuous part of the raw milk processed in Spain. Implications for the organizational structure of Spanish dairy markets are offered.
Indices of media coverage of BSE are incorporated in a dynamic AIDS model of meat demand. The publicity which BSE has received is found to have had significant effects on the allocation of consumer expenditure among the meats. A short-run impact has been identified which accounts in large part for the discernible drop in the market share of beef in the early 1990s. And more important, there also appears to be a significant long-run impact of BSE, which by the end of 1993 has reduced the beef market share by 4.5%.
The U.S. poultry industry has spent considerable resources to date preparing for an outbreak of avian influenza in this country. This research quantifies the potential effects of two alternative avian influenza scenarios on the poultry industry. In addition, this research looks at effects on other agriculture sectors including the loss of feed demand from an outbreak and the impacts on aggregate measures like farm income and consumer food expenditures. The economic sector model maintained by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) is employed for these scenarios.
Consumers' beliefs in the benefits of reducing fat intakes, especially saturated fat, and of increasing calcium intake from such foods as dairy products, depend upon the acquired information related to diet and health. This study develops new health information measures from different sources. The monthly information indexes, constructed for 1980-93, show that the amount of consumer information related to fat and cholesterol in circulation reached the highest levels during 1989-90. The results from an empirical application show that these new indexes of consumer health information about fats and cholesterol could explain the changing patterns of consumer choice for whole milk vs. lower fat milk in the United States.
Using the case of the 2005-2006 Avian Influenza crisis also experienced in Turkey, we present its impacts on consumers' concerns on the pandemic. Based on our cross-sectional dataset derived from a household survey, results from our probit estimations imply that the negative impact of the pandemic on the poultry sector could have been alleviated by informing consumers about it. Frequent users, older consumers, and females are derived to be more concerned about the pandemic. Campaigns, especially through the efficient use of media channels, can target to minimize demand shocks and help poultry demand return to pre-outbreak levels. Using these results, policies can be designed to decrease the negative impacts of future food scares.
This paper proposes new tests for detecting the presence of a unit root in quite general time series models. Our approach
is nonparametric with respect to nuisance parameters and thereby allows for a very wide class of weakly dependent and possibly
heterogeneously distributed data. The tests accommodate models with a fitted drift and a time trend so that they may be used
to discriminate between unit root nonstationarity and stationarity about a deterministic trend. The limiting distributions
of the statistics are obtained under both the unit root null and a sequence of local alternatives. The latter noncentral distribution
theory yields local asymptotic power functions for the tests and facilitates comparisons with alternative procedures due to
Dickey & Fuller. Simulations are reported on the performance of the new tests in finite samples.
A survey of the econometric literature is undertaken to determine the duration of cumulative advertising effect on sales. The surveyed studies yield conflicting estimates of the duration interval. The data interval is shown to have a powerful influence on the implied duration of advertising effect. The evidence leads to the conclusion that the cumulative effect of advertising on sales lasts for only months rather than years.
Lagrange multiplier tests of linear autoregressive moving average time series models against bilinear and exponential autoregressive alternatives are derived. A simulation experiment is performed to check the validity of the asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics and to investigate the power properties of the tests. Two recent time domain tests are also included in the simulations and compared with the Lagrange multiplier tests of the paper.
U.S. per capita shell egg consumption has declined steadily since 1955 despite a falling real price. This paper investigates how information about cholesterol, as measured by a newly constructed index based on medical journal articles, has affected U.S. demand for shell eggs. The results of a fixed coefficient model indicate that information on the links between cholesterol and heart disease had decreased per capita shell egg consumption by 16% to 25% by the first quarter of 1987. A simple changing coefficient model indicates that cholesterol information has changed shell eggs’ own price and income elasticities, so that the 1955–87 falling egg price and rising income increased egg consumption less than they otherwise would have.
This paper presents a dynamic model of farm and retail prices and quantities. Central to the model is the notion that increases in wholesale prices are transmitted to the retail level via markup-type pricing behavior. This behavior is shown to be consistent with firm optimization under the assurnption of constant returns to scale and Leontief production technology at the retail level. The markup hypothesis is tested using the Granger-Sims causality tests. Markup-type price relationships are then estimated for twenty-two food commodities.
This article considers the application of two families of nonlinear autoregressive models, the logistic (LSTAR) and exponential (ESTAR) autoregressive models. This includes the specification of the model based on simple statistical tests: linearity testing against smooth transition autoregression. determining the delay parameter and choosing between LSTAR and ESTAR models are discussed. Estimation by nonlinear least squares is considered as well as evaluating the properties of the estimated model. The proposed techniques are illustrated by examples using both simulated and real time series.
We study a general univariate smooth transition autoregressive, star, model. It contains as a special case the self-exciting
threshold autoregressive, setar, model. We present three tests for testing linearity against star models and discuss their
properties. The power of the tests in small samples is investigated by simulation when the alternative is the logistic star
model. One of the tests is identical to Tsay's (1986) test statistic and is recommended only in a special case. Of the two
remaining tests with wider applicability, one seems superior to the other in small samples. It is also more powerful than
the cusum test recently proposed for testing linearity against setar models.
Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in cointegrated vectorautoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR-model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and another in which the cointegrating relations are estimated recursively from a likelihood function, where the short-run parameters have been concentrated out. We suggest graphical procedures based on recursively estimated eigenvalues to evaluate the constancy of the long-run parameters in the model. Specifically,we look at the time paths of the eigenvalues using a new result on the asymptotic distribution of the estimated eigenvalues. Furthermore, we show that the fluctuation test by Ploberger et al. (1989) and the Lagrange multiplier (LM) type test for constancy of parameters by Nyblom (1989) can be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities.
A regime-switching vector error correction model is applied to monthly price data to assess the impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks on price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for bovines in Spain. To evaluate the degree to which price transmission is affected by BSE food scares, a BSE food scare index is developed and used to determine regime switching. Results suggest that BSE scares affect beef producers and retailers differently. Consumer prices are found to be weakly exogenous and not found to react to BSE scares, while producer prices are conversely adjusted. The magnitude of the adjustment is found to depend on the magnitude of the BSE scare.
Although recent research on price transmission has focused on asymmetric adjustments, these models generally require the functional relationships which underlie the price transmission process to be fundamentally linear. Recent developments in time-series analysis techniques have recognized the potential for nonlinear and threshold-type adjustments in error correction models. Threshold effects occur when larger shocks (i.e., shocks above some threshold) bring about a different response than do smaller shocks. The resulting dynamic responses may be of a non-linear nature in that they may involve various combinations of adjustments from alternative regimes defined by the thresholds. Threshold models of dynamic economic equilibria are usually motivated by adjustment costs, which may inhibit or otherwise constrain adjustments to small shocks. Put another way, a shock may have to be of a particular size before a significant response is provoked. This analysis evaluates price linkages among producer, wholesale, and retail marketing channels in U.S. beef markets. We utilize the threshold cointegration methods recently introduced by Balke and Fomby. In particular, a threshold error correction model allowing asymmetric adjustments is estimated and used to evaluate the dynamic time paths of price adjustments to shocks at each level in the U.S. beef marketing channel.
In this paper, we present the results of a unique time series analysis of contingent values and models for migratory bird protection based on an identical contingent valuation (CV) survey carried out over a three year time period since the first bird flu outbreak in 2003. Although there exists no scientific evidence for a direct relationship, migratory birds are believed to play an important role in spreading the bird flu virus worldwide. The time series analysis allows us to test the temporal stability of stated preferences for migratory bird protection and at the same time examine indirectly the possible impact of increased media attention and public awareness levels regarding the bird flu. We test the impact of the bird flu on public willingness to pay (WTP) for migratory bird protection in the final 2005 survey whilst accounting for procedural variance introduced by sequencing and question ordering-effects, but we are unable to demonstrate a direct negative relationship. A novelty of the study presented here is that respondents in the CV surveys are given the opportunity to pay an annual money amount or a one-time-off lump-sum. Annual WTP values appear to be significantly higher than one-time-off WTP values, suggesting a negative implicit discount rate. Self-selection bias is an important reason for the observed differences. We find that respondents who agree to pay annually differ significantly from respondents who wish to pay a lump-sum in terms of their underlying preferences and motivations towards migratory bird protection.
We consider a nonstationary vector autoregressive process which is integrated of order 1, and generated by i.i.d. Gaussian errors. We then derive the maximum likelihood estimator of the space of cointegration vectors and the likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis that it has a given number of dimensions. Further we test linear hypotheses about the cointegration vectors.The asymptotic distribution of these test statistics are found and the first is described by a natural multivariate version of the usual test for unit root in an autoregressive process, and the other is a χ2 test.
We propose a test of the null hypothesis that an observable series is stationary around a deterministic trend. The series is expressed as the sum of deterministic trend, random walk, and stationary error, and the test is the LM test of the hypothesis that the random walk has zero variance. The asymptotic distribution of the statistic is derived under the null and under the alternative that the series is difference-stationary. Finite sample size and power are considered in a Monte Carlo experiment. The test is applied to the Nelson-Plosser data, and for many of these series the hypothesis of trend stationarity cannot be rejected.
This paper surveys recent developments related to the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) time series model and several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for testing for STAR nonlinearity, model evaluation, and forecasting. Several useful extensions of the basic STAR model, which concern multiple regimes, time-varying non-linear properties, and models for vector time series, are also reviewed.
Multivariate asymmetric threshold vector error correction models are applied to a historical analysis of the regional integration of U.S. markets for eggs at the turn of the nineteenth century. Two general approaches to the selection of the thresholds are considered. The first criterion ignores the cross equation correlation while the latter explicitly accounts for it. Our results suggest that threshold behaviour characterises spatial price linkages between the markets analysed.
The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding information about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.
It is common in catastrophic food-contamination events that consumers fail to adjust instantaneously to a normal consumption level. One explanation is that consumers only gradually accept new positive information as being trustworthy. The gradual establishment of the trustworthiness of the released information depends on both positive and negative media coverage over time. We examine the individual "trust" effects by extending the prospective reference theory (Viscusi, 1989) to include a dynamic adjustment process of risk perception. Conditions that allow aggregation of changes in risk perceptions across individuals are described. The proposed model describes a general updating process of risk perceptions to media coverage and can be applied to explain the temporal impact of media coverage on consumption of a broad range of goods (food or nonfood). A case study of milk contamination is conducted to demonstrate consumer demand adjustment process to a temporarily unfavorable shock. The results suggest that effects of positive and negative information to adjustment of consumption and risk perception are asymmetric over time.
This article investigates the non-linear adjustment between farm and retail prices in the lamb sector in Spain, using a three-regime Threshold Autoregressive Model. The results indicate that, in the long run, price transmission is perfect and any supply or demand shocks are fully transmitted along the marketing chain. In the short run, price adjustments between the farm and the retail levels are asymmetric and reveal a demand-pull transmission mechanism. On the other hand, retailers benefit from any shock, whether positive or negative, that affects supply or demand conditions. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.
Suppose the price of crude oil changes and you ask consumers what will happen to gasoline price. My unscientific survey suggests you will get very different answers about increases in crude oil prices than decreases. In the case of a crude increase a vast majority will predict a rapid increase in gasoline prices. For a decrease in crude, the majority will divide into an unsophisticated group predicting no change in gasoline prices and another predicting a leisurely decline. few predict a symmetric response of gas prices to oil changes.
Outbreaks of infectious animal diseases represent a major threat to agriculture and can impose significant social and economic costs. The potential for devastating epidemics, such as the recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Asia, Europe, and Africa, has prompted major global investments in animal disease prevention and control, both public and private. However, there has been little research into the effects of alternative public policies on farm-level actions to prevent and control HPAI and the implications for disease impacts. Animal disease management involves both ex ante investments to reduce the probability of infection and ex post actions to contain the spread of disease once introduced. The public sector can play an important part in disease mitigation through provision of public disease prevention and control. Another vital role for government in mitigating the potential impacts of HPAI is in the development of well-designed policies to induce socially optimal ex ante private investment while providing incentives for truthful disclosure of disease status. This study employs an economic epidemiology framework to examine the effects of farmer behavior on disease introduction and transmission and to analyze the effects of public policy decisions under alternative scenarios.
We develop a reduced-form model of price transmission in a vertical sector, allowing for refined asymmetric, contemporaneous
and lagged, own and cross-price effects under time-varying volatility. The model is used to investigate the wholesale-retail
price dynamics in the U.S. butter market. The analysis documents the nature of nonlinear price dynamics in a vertical sector.
It finds strong evidence of asymmetric retail price responses, both in the short term and the longer term, but only weak evidence
of asymmetric wholesale price responses. Asymmetric retail responses play a major role in generating a skewed distribution
of butter prices. The empirical results indicate the presence of imperfect competition at the retail level.
A large body of research has evaluated price linkages in spatially separate markets. Much recent research has applied models
appropriate for nonstationary data. Such analyses have been criticized for their ignorance of transactions costs, which may
inhibit price adjustments and thus affect tests of integration. This analysis utilizes threshold autoregression and cointegration
models to account for a neutral band representing transactions costs. We evaluate daily price linkages among four corn and
four soybean markets in North Carolina. Nonlinear impulse response functions are used to investigate dynamic patterns of adjustments
to shocks. Our results confirm the presence of thresholds and indicate strong support for market integration, though adjustments
following shocks may take many days to be complete. In every case, the threshold models suggest much faster adjustments in
response to deviations from equilibrium than is the case when threshold behavior is ignored.
The relationship between cointegration and error correction models, first suggested by Granger, is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples. A vector of time series is said to be cointegrated with cointegrating vector a if each element is stationary only after differencing while linear combinations a8xt are themselves stationary. A representation theorem connects the moving average , autoregressive, and error correction representations for cointegrated systems. A simple but asymptotically efficient two-step estimator is proposed and applied. Tests for cointegration are suggested and examined by Monte Carlo simulation. A series of examples are presented. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.
We develop a stochastic parameter approach to model the time-varying impacts of food scares on consumption, as an alternative to the inclusion of news coverage indices in the demand function. We empirically test the methodology on data from four food scares, the 1982 heptachlor milk contamination in Oahu, Hawaii and the bovine spongiform encephalopathy and two "Escherichia coli" scares on U.S. meat demand over the period 1993-9. Results show that the inclusion of time-varying parameters in demand models enables the capturing of the impact of food safety information and provides better short-term forecasts. Copyright 2006 American Agricultural Economics Association.
This paper investigates fresh meat consumption in Belgium during 1995–1998 through the specification of a three-equation almost ideal demand system (AIDS) incorporating a media index of TV coverage and advertising expenditures as explanatory variables. Estimated parameters and elasticity coefficients are plausible and consistent with demand theory. Own-price elasticities are relatively low, indicating a low fresh meat demand sensitivity to price changes over this period which was dominated by mass media reports about the potential health risks associated with meat consumption. The scope of the paper extends beyond the estimation of elasticity coefficients and includes the specification of a media index and simulations that provide insights into the impact of negative press relative to advertising efforts. Specifically, the impact of television publicity is shown to have been particularly negative on beef/veal expenditures in favour of pork/mixture. This finding corroborates expectations since mass media issues mainly pertained to BSE (mad cow disease) and hormone residues during the investigated period. With relatively little effort being undertaken and with its current strategy, fresh meat advertising is found to have only a minor impact compared with negative press.
This paper considers the impact of ‘food scares’, predominately concerns relating to BSE, on UK beef prices at retail, wholesale and producer levels over the 1990s. Acknowledging the co-movement that exists between prices in the meat marketing chain, we use a co-integrating framework, the results of which show the importance of publicity regarding the safety of food in the transmission of beef prices in the UK. The ‘food publicity’ index that we use has a marked negative impact on the prices at all levels, a result that is consistent with the effect of an inward shift in the demand function. Moreover, the extent of price decline varies between the marketing stages entailing that the price spreads rise in response to an increase in the (negative) publicity about food safety. While not a formal test of market power, these observations are consistent with recent theoretical results demonstrating that market power exacerbates price changes in the upstream sectors for a given change in the retail demand function. The implication of these varying price changes is that the food safety concerns also cause the marketing margins between the stages to widen. The UK’s Competition Commission has recently investigated the abuse of market power in the food sector, inspired largely by this specific issue.
Poultry sector country review: Egypt. FAO Animal Production and Health Division
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Spatial marketing integration in the presence of threshold effects Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models
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