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La croissance économique est-elle un moyen de lutte contre la pollution ?
Abstract
Myriam Nouny La croissance économique est-elle un moyen de lutte contre la pollution ? Les enseignements de la courbe de Kuznets environnementale. La courbe de Kuznets environnementale (CKE) suggère qu'il existe une relation en U inversé entre la dégradation de l'environnement et le revenu par tête. Apparue au début des années 1 990 dans les travaux de Grossman et Krueger [1991] et de Shafik [1994], l'hypothèse de la CKE a depuis été réexaminée et approfondie d'un point de vue empirique et théorique. L'objectif de cette revue de la littérature est double. Premièrement, il s'agit d'étudier les principaux fondements théoriques de cette relation et de fournir un résumé des études empiriques de la CKE. Deuxièmement, nous décrivons les analyses cherchant à vérifier si la CKE est une conséquence automatique de la croissance économique, ou bien si d'autres facteurs économiques, sociaux ou institutionnels ont un impact sur la relation croissance-environnement. Au final, cette présentation permettra de mettre en évidence les politiques favorisant un développement durable.
... Autre reproche formulé à l'égard de la CKE ; c'est la réversibilité de la dégradation de l'environnement ; sauf que rien ne garantirait que l'environnement retrouverait sa situation initiale, car la croissance et l'augmentation de la production qui s'en accompagne Les études menées estiment que le revenu de sommet doit être assez élevé pour que le point de retournement se produise dans la CKE ; s'ajoute a cela que la CKE ne fait que déplacer (Nourry, 2007) le postulat de la CKE qui stipule que les pays du sud avec une faible législation en ...
... Source : (Nourry, 2007) Selon (Munasinghe, 1999) les pays du sud peuvent ne pas adopter le même chemin parcouru par les pays du nord en terme de croissance -environnement et ceci en transperçant un tunnel dans la courbe ; en d'autres termes, cela évitera à ces pays d'atteindre le point de pollution extrême en demeurant sous une frontière tolérable de détérioration de l'environnement au dessus de laquelle, les dégradations sont définitives en aplatissant la courbe. ...
... Source (Nourry, 2007) ...
Dans ce papier, nous abordons l’une des thématiques clé au sein de l’Organisation mondiale du Commerce (OMC), à savoir le développement durable et l’antinomie qui subsiste entre les principes de l’organisation et les objectifs de l’économie verte ; l’objet étant, de mettre le point sur la problématique de l’application des mesures environnementales au sein du système commercial multilatéral (SCM) afin de promouvoir le développement durable et la difficulté de converger vers la libéralisation commerciale et la protection de l’environnement . Après un rappel sur le nouveau multilatéralisme et son traitement des questions liées à la protection de l’environnement en passant par les différentes dimensions environnementales qui figurent dans les accords de l’OMC , nous aborderons les effets d’échelle, de composition et de technique du soutien mutuel (Grossman et Krueger, 1993) en apportant des éléments explicatifs de cette problématique pour conclure avec le réexamen de la courbe de Kuznets environnementale (CKE) en matière de CO2 qui résulte de la dynamisation des trois effets, afin que cela puisse répondre significativement aux problèmes concrets de l’environnement et des enjeux du d développement durable particulièrement avec le lancement des ODD.
... The theoretical existence of EKC would be an outcome of the both economic growth and rising of individual incomes; indeed revenue act through changes in production structures, changes in demand or individual preferences and finally depend on the institutional and policy framework that prevails in the country (Grossman & Krueger, 1991Plassmann & Khanna, 2006;Nourry, 2007;Kaika & Zervas, 2013). ...
... The political aspect of EKC is explained by the negative effects of corrupt and less effective political system on economic growth (Acemoglu, Johnson, & Robinson, 2001). Indeed, efficient institutions which are capable to impose enforceable and strict regulation to protect environment of market failures may partly explain pollution mitigation (Kaika & Zervas, 2013); moreover, with increase of income and information access, people put pressure on governments to take measures of environment protection (Nourry, 2007). ...
... In addition, according to Roberts and Grimes (1997) the inverted U-shaped could be the result of two divergent and juxtaposed trends and not the path of individual countries following various stages of development. The irreversibility means there is no return to the old balance once ecosystem's carrying capacity is exceeded; the simultaneity means there is potential feedback effects of pollution on economic growth; in other words, pollution affects health, labor productivity and natural resources (Nourry, 2007). Therefore a search for a rapid economic expansion at the expense of natural resources may be counterproductive; the idea of an EKC is not a systematic and general result. ...
From the economic literature on the relationship between economic growth and environment pioneered by Grossman and Krueger (1991) and Shafik and Bandyopadhyay (1992) we first conduct a theoretical and critical reflection on the existence of a Kuznets curve for biodiversity. It appears that results are strongly contrasted; economic growth does not seem to be necessarily the solution of biodiversity loss. Then, we focus on the main biodiversity conservation policies implemented in Africa (with the example of Côte d’Ivoire), i.e. protected areas and we discuss its effectiveness in achieving the dual objective of conservation and economic development for local communities.
... L'int erêt de la CEK est qu'elle postule la possibilit e pour les pays pauvres d'am eliorer la qualit e environnementale au fur et a mesure qu'ils se d eveloppent, a mesure que le niveau de vie des individus s'am eliore et favorise l' eclosion d'une conscience environnementale (Banque Mondiale, 1992). Divers auteurs ont propos e une revue d etaill ee des travaux empiriques sur la relation entre la croissance economique et la qualit e de l'environnement (Dinda, 2004;Nourry, 2007). La diversit e des travaux confirme que les probl emes environnementaux sont diff erents d'une r egion a l'autre voir d'un pays a l'autre, rendant particuli eres les solutions propos ees afin de limiter le d esastre environnemental. ...
... L'utilisation des emissions de CO 2 comme proxy de la d egradation environnementale pose souvent un probl eme de pertinence selon les auteurs. En effet, certains auteurs justifient l'absence d'une relation en U invers e entre la croissance et les emissions de CO 2 par le fait qu'il n'existe pas d'incitation a la r eduction de rejets polluants, le coÛt de r eduction des changements climatiques etant locaux et leurs b en efices globaux (Nourry, 2007). Grossman et Krueger (1994, Panayotou (1993Panayotou ( , 1995, Shafik et Bandyopadhyay (1992) et Selden et Song (1994) sont les premiers auteurs a tester empiriquement les effets de la croissance economique sur les indicateurs environnementaux (SO 2 , NOx, CO 2 , CO, d echets municipaux, particules en suspension). ...
... Therefore, it is clear that long-term economic growth and political and societal factors are hazardous to the environment if we do not take the necessary precautions (Ibrahim and Law, 2016 ). Environmental problems represented by air pollution, deforestation, depletion of underground water tables and global warming are due to the increase and concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere (Nourry, 2007). Greenhouse gases such as CO 2 , methane and nitrous oxide usually come from industrial activities such as energy-intensive industries, power plants, transportation, etc. ...
... They prefer to accept the consequences of paying the price of emission reductions. This suggests that the EKC hypothesis is not so much about the level of per capita income, but rather institutional and demographic reforms that tend to accompany rising income and are necessary to allow citizens to express their environmental quality requirements and influence the political process (Nourry, 2007). Rich countries, on the contrary, specialize in the production of their clean products and seek " pollution havens " in countries where environmental regulations may be less developed or little respected (Lucas et al., 1992). ...
The aim of this study is to test the hypothesis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) with a sample of 58 MEA (Middle East & African) and 41 EU (European Union) countries for the period 1990 to 2011. The empirical analysis is carried out using the GMM-system method to solve the problem of endogenous variables. We focused on direct and indirect effects of institutional quality (through the efficiency of public expenditure, financial development, trade openness and foreign direct investment) and the income-emission relationship. We found a monotonically increasing relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP in both MEA and EU regions. The policy implication is clear: in order to have sustainable positive economic performance and to reduce carbon dioxide emission in the country at the same time, policy makers should regulate and enhance the role and efficiency of domestic institutions.
... As poor countries are getting developed and as the living standard of individuals is getting enhanced, the interest in the EKC lies in the fact that it postulates the possibility for poor countries to promote environmental quality. Various authors have offered a review of empirical investigation on the link between detailed economic growth and environmental quality of Dinda (2004) and Nourry (2007). ...
Environmental degradation and economic growth are two intricately related issues whose impact is in constant increase within a global context marked by climate risks and corruption, notably in certain African countries. This research work examines the impacts of economic growth, corruption, renewable energy, and foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions for a set of West African economies between 1990 and 2020. The current paper uses the PMG-ARDL panel method in order to assess the relationships between the various variables invested. The results are indicative of the long-term effects of variables. These findings demonstrate that GDP per capita has a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions, and that the Kuznet curve is not validated in this case. Moreover, FDI confirms the pollution heaven hypothesis as it reduces environmental quality in the long run. In contrast, renewable energy consumption and control corruption in West African countries constitute significant factors in the fight for environmental quality. The causality outcomes reveal that there exist one way of unidirectional link between CO2 to both income and corruption, and a one direction causality from FDI to CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, the link between renewable energy and CO2 emissions is neutral. In this respect, this research offers outstanding findings to help maintain influential procedures for environmental sustainability within the West African framework.
... Natural change is tended to by air pollution, deforestation, depletion of underground water tables, and an increase of global temperature as a result of the extension and accumulation of ozone-depleting substances (GHGs) in the climate (Nourry, 2007;Zhang et al., 2018), and has become a general test that desperately needs to be tended to, bringing in the consideration of environmental sanatorium CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide are common ozone-depleting gases emitted by mechanical operations such as energy-intensive businesses, power plants, and transportation. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for around 75% of ozone-depleting substance discharges (Abbasi & Riaz, 2016), with global temperatures reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is very high. ...
This study focused on the spatial effects of CO2 determinants, using data from 43 European countries between 1996 and 2018. Tests proved the existence of the spatial Durbin model. The findings indicate that the logarithm of GDP per capita, urbanization, and energy use have enhancing effects on CO2 emissions, but that these effects are meaningless for trade openness. Most of the coefficients provided insignificant results, while six financial development indicators were entered into the model in a straight line. The addition of the term "interaction between energy intensity and financial development" improved the effects of all of the components significantly. The phrase's negative and significant coefficient predicts increased energy intensity efficiency as a result of the development of multiple financial production components. The analysis of spatial effects reveals that control variables in adjacent countries have negligible effects on CO2 emissions. Overall, the findings show that CO2 emissions are falling as neighboring countries' productivity and financial development rise. The findings indicate that financial development in neighboring countries has comparable effects on CO2 emissions as domestic financial development. As a result of these findings, European countries have reached a point of financial integration.
... D'autres études se sont intéressées à l'influence des facteurs politiques sur la déforestation (Bhattarai et Hammig, 2001 ;Nourry, 2007). Selon Nourry (2007), la qualité de l'environnement peut être sous-évaluée par le marché lorsque les droits de propriété ne sont pas bien définis pour coordonner les motivations des agents. ...
96 Les déterminants de la déforestation : une analyse en panel à partir des données du bassin du Congo Résumé L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser les déterminants de la déforestation de 06 pays forestiers du bassin du Congo pour la période allant de 1990 à 2010. A partir d'un modèle de panel à effets aléatoires, nous montrons qu'il n'existe pas de courbe environnementale de Kuznets (courbe de forme U inversée) entre le taux de déforestation et le revenu par tête. A l'inverse, nous obtenons une relation croissante et monotone entre ces deux variables. En ce qui concerne les variables de la population, nos résultats montrent que la densité de la population a un impact positif et très significatif sur la déforestation. Cependant, la croissance de celle-ci n'a pas une influence significative. Par ailleurs, le taux d'intérêt réel, l'inflation et les termes de l'échange ont tous un impact négatif sur la déforestation dans le bassin du Congo. Notre étude met aussi en évidence que la déforestation est le fait des populations pauvres. Enfin, nous montrons que l'augmentation de la productivité agricole a un impact défavorable sur la conservation des forêts du bassin du Congo, tandis que la qualité des institutions n'influence pas significativement la réduction des superficies forestières. Mots-clés : Déforestation, Courbe environnementale de Kuznets, Bassin du Congo Abstract : The objective of this paper is to analyze the determinants of deforestation of 06 forest countries of the Congo Basin for the period from 1990 to 2010. From a panel model with random effects, we show that n 'there is no environmental Kuznets curve (U shaped curve inverted) between deforestation rates and per capita income. Conversely, we have a growing and monotonous relationship between these two variables. Regarding the variables of the population, our results show that the density of the population has a positive and very significant impact on deforestation. However, its growth has no significant influence. Moreover, the real interest rate, inflation and the terms of trade all have a negative impact on deforestation in the Congo Basin. Our study also highlights that deforestation is the fact of the poor. Finally, we show that increasing agricultural productivity has a negative impact on forest conservation in the Congo Basin, while institutional quality does not significantly influence the reduction of forest areas.
... CourbeSource : Adapté deNourry (2007). ...
colloque International Pluridisciplinaire organisé par l’Institut Catholique Universitaire Saint-Jérôme de Douala du 08 Au 10 Janvier 2014 à Douala-Cameroun, Intitulé « Quelles trajectoires vers une émergence à visage humain de l’Afrique ? »
... L'intérêt de la CEK est qu'elle postule la possibilité pour les pays pauvres d'améliorer la qualité environnementale au fur et à mesure qu'ils se développent, à mesure que le niveau de vie des individus s'améliore et favorise l'éclosion d'une conscience environnementale (Banque Mondiale, 1992). Divers auteurs ont proposé une revue détaillée des travaux empiriques sur la relation entre la croissance économique et la qualité de l'environnement (Dinda, 2004 ;Nourry, 2007). La diversité des travaux confirme que les problèmes environnementaux sont différents d'une région à l'autre, rendant particulières les solutions proposées afin de limiter le désastre environnemental. ...
Ce papier a pour objectif d'examiner les effets de la croissance économique sur les émissions de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) dans quelques pays du Bassin du Congo, notamment le Cameroun, le Congo, la Gabon et la République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) sur la période1978-2012. Le test de cointégration par les retards 1échelonnés ou AutoRegressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) a été appliqué sur des séries temporelles sur la période 1978-2012. Les résultats du test indiquent une relation de long terme entre les variables, et les résultats du modèle de long terme montrent que la croissance économique a un impact positif sur les émissions de CO2 dans ces pays. Ensuite, on constate que la consommation d'énergie, la densité de la population, les activités industrielles accroissent les émissions de CO2 dans ces pays, bien que l'impact de la consommation d'énergie et des activités industrielles soit non significatif en RDC. L'ouverture commerciale a un impact négatif et significatif sur les émissions de CO2 au Cameroun, tandis que son impact est non significatif au Congo, au Gabon et en RDC. Ce résultat est en contradiction avec l'hypothèse des havres de pollution. Abstract: This paper aims at verifying the effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over some countries of the "Bassin du Congo", named Cameroon, Congo, Gabon and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The bound testing procedure or AutoRegressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approach to cointégration was applied on times series data for the period 1978-2012. The cointegration results confirm the existence of long run relation between these variables. The long run results show that income have a positive and significant impact in CO2 in these countries. In addition, we found that energy consumption, population density and industrial activities increase CO2 emissions in these countries, even though the impacts of energy consumption and industrial activities in DRC are not significant. Trade openness has a negative significant effect in Cameroon, while the effect is insignificant in other countries. This result is not in conformity with pollution havens hypothesis.
... The importance of the KEC lies in the fact that it advances the possibility for poor countries of improving environmental quality as they develop, on condition that as the standard of living of the individuals improves, there is growing support for environmental consciousness (World Bank, 1992). Many authors have done a detailed review of empirical work on the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality (Dinda, 2004;Nourry, 2007). The diversity of studies confirms the fact that environmental problems differ from one region to another, giving rise to the need for solutions specific to each region in order to limit the environmental disaster. ...
This study examines the effects of economic growth on the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of a sample of four countries of the Congo Basin. Cointegration tests by the distributed lags or AutoRegressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (1997, 2001) is applied to data on Cameroon, Congo, Gabon and the Democratic Republic of Congo for the period from 1978 to 2012 and indicates the existence of a long term relationship between the variables. The results show that the economic growth has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in these countries. Also, the consumption of energy, population density and industrial activities increase CO2 emissions significantly in these countries, while the commercial opening does not have a significant impact.
... However, their results were mixed. See Dinda (2004) and Nourry (2007) for a comprehensive and critical survey of studies that tested the EKC hypothesis. The principal shortcomings of studies based on the ECK are that they implicitly suppose a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to environmental degradation. ...
“Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Growth in Cameroon”
Nkengfack Hilaire, Kaffo Fotio Hervé, Kamajou François
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of economic growth, electricity consumption and urbanization on CO2 emissions in Cameroon applying the newly developed ARDL to time series data from 1971 to 2011. In addition, we used a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in order to examine the long and short runs causality between CO2 emissions and others variables. The results obtained suggest that CO2 emissions are positively related to economic growth, electricity consumption and urbanization. Besides, the results suggest that there exist two forms of long run unidirectional causality when CO2 emissions and electricity consumption are dependent variables. We also found that in the short run, there is bidirectional causality between CO2 emissions and electricity consumption. Although Cameroon is not a major contributor to global carbon emissions, it should participate in the global effort of mitigation.
Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.15640/jibe.v2n3a8
... Deuxièmement, les estimations ne reposent pas sur des bases théoriques solides : ces travaux, généralement économétriques, n'obtiennent pas des résultats robustes à cause de problèmes de données et de questions ayant avoir avec la spécification de l'équation (Nourry, 2007). D'ailleurs, d'autres travaux qui utilisent une méthodologie basée dans des modèles d'évaluation intégrée qui « explicitent d'une manière beaucoup plus 1 SO2, particules, etc. 2 CO2 complète la liaison entre économie et environnement » (Johansson et Kriström, 2007) ne confirment pas la relation en forme de U inversée Cantore, (2006). ...
The economic impact of defence spending is one of the most hotly debated issues today. Due to instability and security deficits in many countries around the world, many countries are devoting a greater proportion of their budgets to defence spending, with adverse consequences for the environment. On this basis, the aim of this study is to examine the correlation between military spending and environmental degradation, and to test whether economic progress serves as a transferable channel. To do this fixed‐effects estimates, Driscoll–Kraay, Lewbel (2SLS), Oster, structural VARs and quantiles were used. The analysis showed a significant and positive effect of military spending on designated environmental markers such as nitrous oxide, methane and carbon dioxide. This implies that although they do not manufacture weapons, African countries are affected by military spending, which contributes to environmental degradation. It is therefore essential that military spending is regulated in Africa, as the influx of weapons exacerbates conflicts on the continent. Moreover, economic growth is an important factor in transmitting the impact of military spending. On the other hand, African governments need to improve their systems of governance and address long‐standing inequalities in income, education, gender, access to basic services and other aspects. In doing so, countries that have experienced conflict in the past will be able to redirect their military spending towards sectors that bring greater prosperity and prioritise environmental protection.
In a world increasingly subject to climate change, protected areas are of particular importance for conserving biodiversity and human livelihoods. Therefore, they play an important role in helping many species, populations, and countries adapt to climate change. This paper analyzes the effects of economic growth on the evolution of the protected areas. The study examines this relation using a sample of nine countries of the Congo Basin from 1990 to 2010. The econometric results show that an increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has a positive impact on the extent of the protected area in this region regardless of the model chosen. Therefore, economic growth is a means used for the preservation of biodiversity in the Congo Basin. Moreover, the population density is negative and statistically significant. This shows that the protected areas of the Congo Basin are particularly threatened in densely populated areas.
Developing countries play a number one role in international green-economic development as key holders of green products, and services. Nonetheless, these countries are not sufficiently concerned within the debates on expansion policies, due to their crucial implication in worldwide feasible development. This research aims to analyze the relationship between CO2 outflows, energy utilization, and economic development in the Republic of Congo as well as the presence of a causative link between the factors by applying the Vector Autoregressive model, including as additional proxies’ variables gross-fixed-capital-formation, and rural population. The data cover the period 1985-2018 using cointegration and causality techniques as a methodological approach. The Granger causality test outcomes of cointegrated variables showed that there is one-way Granger causality running from real GDP to Energy utilization, and running from dioxide outflows to real income as well as two–way causative link between Energy utilization and CO2 outflows in Congo. The results also display a bidirectional causal link between the rural population and Energy utilization. Overall evidence confirms that the practice of energy conservancy approach may lead to a significant and negative effect on economic development.
Dans cet article, nous portons une attention particulière aux interactions réciproques entre la qualité de l’environnement, le processus de croissance et les inégalités passant par le canal de la santé. Notre objectif est ainsi d’apporter un éclairage sur la faisabilité d’un développement durable à long terme en identifiant les mécanismes qui relient ses trois dimensions – économique, environnementale et sociale. Nous mettons enfin en avant le rôle primordial des politiques environnementales dans l’amélioration des performances économiques et dans la réduction des inégalités.
Following Roberts and Grimes (1997), we study the temporal instability of the environmental Kuznets curve for a panel of 51 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our results show that: (1) an inverted U-shape curve appears in the early 1980s; (2) the environmental efficiency increases over time as the coefficient of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of primary energy consumption decreases; (3) there is a rising trend of the turning point income that goes from 10,000 USD in the early 1980s to almost 20,000 USD in 2008.
In this paper we examine the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis using the Ecological Footprint (EF), a more comprehensive indicator of environmental degradation, for ve Latin American countries covering the 1971-2007 period. We test the EKC hypothesis using a traditional quadratic function from both the supply and consumption-side, adding several explicative variables: urbanization, petrol price and industrialization for supply-side; biocapacity, life expectancy and energy use for consumption-side. We perform an ARDL modeling in order to study both short and long-run periods. We nd that there is no stable relationship between environment and economic development in the long-run. For the short-run analysis, the EKC hypothesis is supported for no one, we rather nd an increasing relationship between growth and environment. Results for explicative variables are mixed: For production-side approach, industrialization appears to have a positive impact on EF for Chile. For consumption-side approach, we nd that energy use seems to have a positive impact on EF for Argentina and Colombia whereas biocapacity and life expectancy have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on EF for Paraguay.
Free trade and climate changes: “mutual supportiveness” or conflicting paradigms?
This article deals with the theoretical and institutional links between the climate change agenda and the globalization. It develops a critical analysis of the mutual supportiveness between free trade and the greenhouse gas emission reductions. This critical analysis paves the way to a second one: the refutation of the mutual supportiveness between the WTO regime and the international climate change regime.
Cette contribution aborde les dimensions théoriques et institutionnelles du lien entre l'agenda de la lutte contre les changements climatiques et la globalisation économique entendue comme l'accroissement de l'interdépendance commerciale et de l'intégration productive. Elle interroge la thèse du soutien mutuel qui est devenue une expression centrale du droit international ayant une portée normative et prescriptive majeures en matière de coopération économique internationale.
Following Grimes and Roberts (1997), we study the temporal instability of the environmental Kuznets curve for a panel of 51 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our results show that: (1) an inverted U-shape curve appears in the early 1980s; (2) the environmental efficiency increases over time as the coefficient of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of primary energy consumption decreases; (3) there is a rising trend of turning point that goes from 20,000 in 2008.
JEL Codes: C21, O13, O44, Q40, Q56
L’intensité de pollution inférieure des firmes de grande taille et leurs moindres coûts marginaux de réduction des émissions demeurent un fait largement documenté dans la littérature empirique. En poursuivant les intuitions de Merlevede et al (2006), nous examinons l’hypothèse qu’avec l’accroissement du développement économique, la présence de firmes industrielles de taille supérieure (en moyenne) devienne négativement associée aux émissions de SO2 en raison de l’avantage comparatif des grandes firmes à réduire leurs émissions polluantes à un moindre coût marginal. La courbe de Kuznets environnementale (CKE) est l’instrument par lequel nous comparons l’impact de la présence de grandes firmes sur les émissions de SO2 per capita de 29 provinces et villes chinoises. Pour vérifier la robustesse des résultats, trois différents indicateurs de taille sont retenus. Même si les estimations tendent à confirmer que les firmes de grande taille sont associées à une meilleure performance environnementale, les résultats demeurent fortement sensibles au choix de la forme fonctionnelle.
Recent empirical studies have tested the hypothesis of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) focusing primarily on the relationship between per capita income and certain types of pollutant emissions. Given the stock-nature of many pollution problems, emissions only partially account for the environmental impacts. Moreover, almost all of the studies have given consideration to little more than income levels as explanatory variables. This paper empirically tests the hypothesis of the EKC existence for a stock-sensitive indicator, that is, the percentage of protected area (PA) within national territory. It does theorize that economic growth is a necessary condition in order to better address environmental issues. But it also stresses that other variables (income distribution, education, information accessibility) may play a fundamental role in determining environmental quality. Contrary to other studies that mainly focus on the calculation of the income level corresponding to the transition point, this paper is more concerned with the calculation of environmental quality corresponding to that transition point, that is, the minimum level of environmental quality that a country is willing to accept. This paper highlights the idea that if the transition point is determined primarily by income level, social policies determine the level of environmental quality corresponding to that point.
Recent empirical research indicates that certain types of emissions follow an inverted-U or environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) as income grows. This regularity has been interpreted as a possible de-linking of economic growth and patterns of certain pollutants for developed economies. In this paper the empirical basis of this result is investigated by considering some statistical particularities of the various EKC studies performed. It is argued that the inverted-U relationship between income and emissions estimated from panel data need not hold for specific individual countries over time. Based on insights from `intensity-of-use' analysis in resource economics, an alternative growth model is specified and estimated for three types of emissions (CO2, NOx and SO2) in four countries (Netherlands, UK, USA and Western Germany). It is found that the time patterns of these emissions correlate positively with economic growth and that emission reductions may have been achieved as a result of structural and technological changes in the economy. `Sustainable growth' is defined as the rate of economic growth that does not lead to growth in emissions. Its rate is calculated for each type of emission and country, based on estimated parameter values. The resulting indicators reflect a balance between the positive influence of growth and negative influence of structural change and technological progress on emission levels.
Economywide reforms often contribute simultaneously to economic, social and environmental gains. However, Unintended adverse side effects occur in many cases—when such growth inducing reforms are undertaken while neglecting other policy, market or institutional imperfections. The remedy does not generally require reversal of the original economywide reforms, but rather the ex-ante implementation of additional complementary measures that remove such imperfections. The EKC approach seeks to relate the state of the environment to the stage of development. Developing countries could learn from the experiences of industrialized nations, and restructure growth and development to `tunnel' through any potential EKC—thereby avoiding going through the same stages of growth that involve relatively high (and even irreversible) levels of environmental harm. An environmentally adjusted measure of national income could significantly change the shape of the development-environment relationship. Recommendations for decision-making include: actively seeking `win–win' policies that simultaneously yield both economic and environmental gains; pre-empting environmental harm through ex-ante remedial measures; and fine-tuning reform policies to avoid severe environmental damage. The adoption of more sustainable policies will facilitate the attainment of higher levels of development at a lower environmental cost.
A semiparametric additive model is used to study the relationship between protected area, income, trade, population, education, and political institutions in a sample of 89 countries. The results show the nonexistence of an environmental Kuznets curve in the data sample. The study also points out the existence of nonlinearity in the relationship between protected area and the ratio of net secondary school enrolment.
Over the past decade, concern over potential global warming has focused attention on the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and there is an active debate concerning the desirability of reducing emissions. At the heart of this debate is the future path of both greenhouse gas emissions and economic development among the nations. We use global panel data to estimate the relationship between per capita income and carbon dioxide emissions, and then use the estimated trajectories to forecast global emissions of CO2. The analysis yields four major results. First, the evidence suggests a diminishing marginal propensity to emit (MPE) CO2 as economies develop; a result masked in analyses that rely on cross-section data alone. Second, despite the diminishing MPE, our forecasts indicate that global emissions of CO2 will continue to grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent. Third, continued growth stems from the fact that economic and population growth will be most rapid in the lower-income nations that have the highest MPE. For this reason, there will be an inevitable tension between policies to control greenhouse gas emissions and those toward the global distribution of income. Finally, our sensitivity analyses suggest that the pace of economic development does not dramatically alter the future annual or cumulative flow of CO2 emissions.
Several recent studies have identified inverted-U relationships between pollution and economic development. We investigate this question using a cross-national panel of data on emissions of four important air pollutants: suspended particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon monoxide. We find that per capita emissions of all four pollutants exhibit inverted-U relationships with per capita GDP. While this suggests that emissions will decrease in the very long run, we forecast continued rapid growth in global emissions over the next several decades.
We examine the empirical relation between CO2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita during the period 1960-1996, using a panel of 100 countries. Relying on the nonparametric poolability test of Baltagi et al. (1996), we find evidence of structural stability of the relationship. We then specify a nonparametric panel data model with country-specific effects. Estimation results show that this relationship is upward sloping. Nonparametric specification tests do not reject monotonicity but do reject the polynomial functional form which leads to the environmental Kuznets curve in several studies.
The environmental Kuznets curve posits an inverted-U relationship between pollution and economic development. Pessimistic critics of empirically estimated curves have argued that their declining portions are illusory, either because they are cross-sectional snapshots that mask a long-run "race to the bottom" in environmental standards, or because industrial societies will continually produce new pollutants as the old ones are controlled. However, recent evidence has fostered an optimistic view by suggesting that the curve is actually flattening and shifting to the left. The driving forces appear to be economic liberalization, clean technology diffusion, and new approaches to pollution regulation in developing countries.
We examine the reduced-form relationship between per capita income and various environmental indicators. Our study covers
four types of indicators: urban air pollution, the state of the oxygen regime in river basins, fecal contamination of river
basins, and contamination of river basins by heavy metals. We find no evidence that environmental quality deteriorates steadily
with economic growth. Rather, for most indicators, economic growth brings an initial phase of deterioration followed by a
subsequent phase of improvement. The turning points for the different pollutants vary, but in most cases they come before
a country reaches a per capita income of $8000.
Nowhere has the divide between advocates and critics of globalization been more striking than in debates over free trade and the environment. And yet the literature on the subject is high on rhetoric and low on results. This book is the first to systematically investigate the subject using both economic theory and empirical analysis. Brian Copeland and Scott Taylor establish a powerful theoretical framework for examining the impact of international trade on local pollution levels, and use it to offer a uniquely integrated treatment of the links between economic growth, liberalized trade, and the environment. The results will surprise many. The authors set out the two leading theories linking international trade to environmental outcomes, develop the empirical implications, and examine their validity using data on measured sulfur dioxide concentrations from over 100 cities worldwide during the period from 1971 to 1986. The empirical results are provocative. For an average country in the sample, free trade is good for the environment. There is little evidence that developing countries will specialize in pollution-intensive products with further trade. In fact, the results suggest just the opposite: free trade will shift pollution-intensive goods production from poor countries with lax regulation to rich countries with tight regulation, thereby lowering world pollution. The results also suggest that pollution declines amid economic growth fueled by economy-wide technological progress but rises when growth is fueled by capital accumulation alone. Lucidly argued and authoritatively written, this book will provide students and researchers of international trade and environmental economics a more reliable way of thinking about this contentious issue, and the methodological tools with which to do so.
This paper uses a new panel data set on state-level sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions from 1929–1994 to test the appropriateness of the ‘one size fits all’ reduced-form regression approach commonly used in the environmental Kuznets curve literature. Empirical results provide initial evidence that an inverted-U shape characterizes the relationship between per capita emissions and per capita incomes at the state level. Parameter estimates suggest, however, that previous studies, which restrict cross-sections to undergo identical experiences over time, may be presenting statistically biased results.
Does economic development depend on geographic endowments like temperate instead of tropical location, the ecological conditions shaping diseases, or an environment good for grains or certain cash crops? Or do these endowments of tropics, germs, and crops affect economic development only through institutions or policies? We test the endowment, institution, and policy views against each other using cross country evidence. We find evidence that tropics, germs, and crops affect development through institutions. We find no evidence that tropics, germs, and crops affect country incomes directly other than through institutions, nor do we find any effect of policies on development once we control for institutions.
This paper presents a critical history of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The EKC proposes that indicators of environmental degradation first rise, and then fall with increasing income per capita. Recent evidence shows however, that developing countries are addressing environmental issues, sometimes adopting developed country standards with a short time lag and sometimes performing better than some wealthy countries, and that the EKC results have a very flimsy statistical foundation. A new generation of decomposition and efficient frontier models can help disentangle the true relations between development and the environment and may lead to the demise of the classic EKC.
We examine the empirical relation between CO2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita during the period 1960–1996, using a panel of 100 countries. Relying on the nonparametric poolability test of Baltagi et al. [Baltagi, B.H., Hidalgo, J., Li, Q., 1996. A nonparametric test for poolability using panel data, Journal of Econometrics 75, 345–367], we find evidence of structural stability of the relationship. We then specify a nonparametric panel data model with country-specific effects. Estimation results show that this relationship is upward sloping. Nonparametric specification tests do not reject monotonicity but do reject the polynomial functional form which leads to the environmental Kuznets curve in several studies.
This paper uses an updated and revised panel data set on ambient air pollution in cities worldwide to examine the robustness of the evidence for the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between national income and pollution. We test the sensitivity of the pollution- income relationship to functional forms, to additional covariates, and to changes in the nations, cities, and years sampled. We find that the results are highly sensitive to these changes, and conclude that there is little empirical support for an inverted U-shaped relationship between several important air pollutants and national income in these data. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog
Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker-we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which we call social infrastructure. We treat social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language. © 2000 the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Although, in the course of development some features of the environment in developing countries may get worse, in the longer run they will be able to reverse trends in more common forms of air pollution and to attain levels of water supply and sanitation essential to an acceptable, healthy standard of living. On the whole, says the author, there is a strong positive relationship between income level and environmental quality. In the developed countries, effective measures to combat urban air pollution were introduced only when it had reached almost intolerable levels in many cities. This does not mean that as countries develop they will replicate precisely the environmental histories of developed countries. The path of environmental pollution in the developing world today will probably differ from that of the past in at least four respects: (1) Changes in technology, relative prices, patterns of output, and policies mean that although traditional pollutants have been brought under control in many (mainly developed) countries, the world is faced with newer pollutants, or with old pollutants that, on account of their scale or accumulation, have acquired new significance. (2) The global character of many pollutants is becoming more serious. Today, even leaving aside the issues of global warming and ozone depletion, there is evidence of serious regional environmental effects of acid rain and of marine or riverine pollution. (3) International trade in polluting activities adds a relatively new element. Developing countries may suffer not only from their own pollution but also from imported pollution, as enterprises shift their more polluting activities from countries with strict controls to countries in which environmental considerations do not have a high priority. Today, the fast growth of automobile traffic means that emissions of carbon monoxide or nitrous oxides have become a serious problem; in the past, the chief form of urban pollution was dense sulfur dioxide, or smoke.
Critics of free trade have raised the specter of a"race to the bottom,"in which environmental standards collapse because polluters threaten to relocate to"pollution havens"in the developing world. Proponents of this view advocate high, globally uniform standards enforced by punitive trade measures that neutralize the cost advantage of would-be pollution havens. To test the race-to-the-bottom model, the author analyzes recent air quality trends in the United States and in Brazil, China, and Mexico, the three largest recipients of foreign investment in the developing world. The evidence clearly contradicts the model's central prediction. The most dangerous form of air pollution--suspended particulate matter--has actually declined in major cities in all four countries during the era of globalization. Citing recent research, the author argues that the race-to-the-bottom model is flawed because its basic assumptions misrepresent the political economy of pollution control in developing countries. He proposes a more realistic model, in which low-income societies serve their own long-run interests by reducing pollution. He concludes with recommendations for international assistance measures that can improve environmental quality without counterproductive enforcement of uniform standards and trade sanctions.
The authors develop comparative indices of environmental policy and performance for 31 countries using a quantified analysis of reports prepared for the United Nations Conference on Environmental and Development. In cross-country regressions, they find a very strong, continuous association between their indicators and national income per capita, particularly when adjusted for purchasing power parity. Their results suggest a characteristic progression in development. Poor agrarian economies focus first on natural resource protection. With increased urbanization and industrialization, countries move from initial regulation of water pollution to air pollution control. The authors highlight the importance of institutional development. Environmental regulation is more advanced in developing countries with relatively secure property rights, effective legal and judicial systems, and efficient public administration.
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, biodiversity loss and efforts to conserve biodiversity using a combination of panel and cross section data. If economic growth is a cause of biodiversity loss through habitat transformation and other means, then we would expect an inverse relationship. But if higher levels of income are associated with increasing real demand for biodiversity conservation, then investment to protect remaining diversity should grow and the rate of biodiversity loss should slow with growth. Initially, economic growth and biodiversity loss are examined within the framework of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Biodiversity is represented by predicted species richness, generated for tropical terrestrial biodiversity using a species-area relationship. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis is investigated with reference to comparison of fixed and random effects models to allow the relationship to vary for each country. It is concluded that an environmental Kuznets curve between income and rates of loss of habitat and species does not exist in this case. The role of conservation effort in addressing environmental problems is examined through state protection of land and the regulation of trade in endangered species, two important means of biodiversity conservation. This analysis shows that the extent of government environmental policy increases with economic development. We argue that, although the data are problematic, the implications of these models is that conservation effort can only ever result in a partial deceleration of biodiversity decline partly because protected areas serve multiple functions and are not necessarily designated to protect biodiversity. Nevertheless institutional and policy response components of the income biodiversity relationship are important but are not well captured through cross-country regression analysis.
The relationship between economic development and environmental quality is analyzed econometrically for a large sample of countries over time. The results indicate that some indicators improve with rising incomes (like water and sanitation), others worsen and then improve (particulates and sulfur oxides), and others worsen steadily (dissolved oxygen in rivers, municipal solid wastes, and carbon emissions). Growth tends to be associated with environmental improvements where there are generalized local costs and substantial benefits. But where the costs of environomental degradation are borne by others (by the poor or by other countries), there are few incentives to alter damaging behavior. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.
The relationship between economic growth and the environment is, and will always remain, controversial. Some see the emergence of new pollution problems, the lack of success in dealing with global warming and the still rising population in the Third World as proof positive that humans are a short-sighted and rapacious species. Others however see the glass as half full. They note the tremendous progress made in providing urban sanitation, improvements in air quality in major cities and marvel at the continuing improvements in the human condition made possible by technological advance. The first group focuses on the remaining and often serious environmental problems of the day; the second on the long, but sometimes erratic, history of improvement in living standards. These views are not necessarily inconsistent and growth theory offers us the tools needed to explore the link between environmental problems of today and the likelihood of their improvement tomorrow. This review articles discusses and evaluates the theoretical literature linking environmental quality to economic growth. We focus on three questions. These are: (1) what is the relationship between economic growth and the environment? (2) how can we escape the limits to growth imposed by environmental constraints? and (3) where should future research focus its efforts? For the most part, we discuss the link between industrial pollution and growth, but also show how this most recent work is related to earlier contributions on exhaustible resources and growth. While no review can settle the perennial debate over the limits to growth, this review moves the literature forward by identifying important unresolved theoretical questions, reports on the results of recent empirical work, and provides an integrative assessment of where we stand today.
The word “convexity” is ubiquitous in economics, but absent fromeconomics. In this paper we explain why, and show what differenceit makes to economic analysis if ecosystem non-convexities aretaken seriously. A simple proof is provided of the connectionbetween “self-similarity” and “power laws”. We also provide anintroduction to each of the papers in the Symposium and draw outthe way in which they form a linked set of contributions. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003
A simple theoretical model of pollution is developed that generates an inverted U-shape relationship between per capita income and environmental quality. This model is then used to study long-run growth. The same inverted U-shape is shown to appear in time series and the prospects for sustained growth are shown to hinge on whether increasingly strict environmental regulation is compatible with a constant rate of return on capital. Implementation is also studied. Tax and voucher schemes are shown to have an advantage over direct regulation because they provide the correct incentives for capital accumulation. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.
In general, a reduction in trade barriers will affect the environment by expanding the scale of economic activity, by altering the composition of economic activity and by initiating a change in the techniques of production. We present empirical evidence to assess the relative magnitudes of these three effects as they apply to further trade liberalization in Mexico. We first use comparable measures of three air pollutants in a cross-section of urban areas located in 42 countries to study the relationship between air quality and economic growth. We find for two pollutants (sulphur dioxide and `smoke') that concentrations increase with per capita GDP at low levels of national income, but decrease with GDP growth at higher levels of income. We then study the determinants of the industry pattern of US imports from Mexico and of value added by Mexico's maquiladora sector. We investigate whether the size of pollution abatement costs in US industry influences the pattern of international trade and investment. Finally, we use the results from a computable general equilibrium model to study the likely compositional effect of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on pollution in Mexico.
This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis proposes that there is an inverted U-shape relation between environmental degradation and income per capita. Various explanations for this phenomenon have been put forward and some authors argue that important explanatory variables are omitted from conventional EKC estimates. Inclusion of these omitted variables is argued to increase the estimated "turning point" - the level of GDP per capita above which environmental degradation is declining. In this paper we use a new cross-section/time-series data base of sulfur emissions for a wide range of developed and developing countries. The methodology involves estimating EKCs for subsets of this database as well as for the sample as a whole. The results show that estimating an EKC using data for only the OECD countries, as has often been the case, leads to estimates where the turning point is at a much lower level than when the EKC is estimated using data for the World as a whole. The paper explores possible explanations of these results using Monte Carlo analysis, and other statistical tests.We conclude that the simple EKC model is fundamentally misspecified and that there are omitted variables which are correlated with GDP.
Economic growth and trade liberalization decrease the degradation of natural resources if and only if producers internalize their stock feedback effects on production. For environmental factors without stock effects on production, economic growth is necessarily detrimental if preferences are homothetic. In the non-homothetic case, the relationship between growth and pollution depends on the elasticity of substitution in production between conventional factors and pollution and on the relative degree of curvature of utility in income. The lower are the elasticity of substitution and relative curvature coefficient, the more likely it is that pollution increases with income. An inverted U-shaped relationship between pollution and income is obtained.
This paper examines the relationship between deforestation and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; in particular, whether an inverted-U relationship (indicative of worsening then improving deforestation) exists between them. We note that previous work has used models with restrictive assumptions, and recommend a more flexible random coefficients specification which allows for a greater degree of cross-country heterogeneity. Empirical results using data for 76 developing countries between 1961–1992 suggest that the inverted-U shaped relationship observed in other studies does not appear to be an empirical regularity with our less restrictive specification. Statistical tests indicate that this specification is supported by the data. We argue that such results are not surprising in view of the wide diversity of physical and social characteristics that exist across countries.
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