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Developing and Implementing Automated Risk Assessments in Parole
Abstract
This article describes the efforts undertaken during the past five years for the Georgia Board of Pardons and Paroles to develop a method for assessing parolee risk to inform the supervision level assignments of Georgia's 23,000 active parolees. The project resulted in an actuarial risk assessment method based on the analysis of over 6,000 parolees. Historically, officers conducted pencil-and-paper assessments on all new parolees entering supervision and reassessments every six months thereafter. The new instruments are automated—offender risk is derived through the execution of computerized programs that access both prison and parole data systems. Parolee risk scores are updated daily, incorporating the dynamics of daily correctional supervision progress or failure, and are provided to parole officers through web-based reports and e-mail.
... But residential mobility can also be studied as a characteristic of individual offenders. Results from studies of offender recidivism have found that changes in an offender's residential situation predict reconviction (see Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007;Visher & Courtney, 2007). For example, in the United States, Meredith, Speir, Johnson, and Hull (2003) found that the likelihood of arrest increased 25% each time parolees in Georgia changed addresses, while Steiner, Makarios, and Travis (2015) found in Ohio that changing residences several times during parole supervision was associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism. ...
... The few studies that have investigated the mobility-recidivism linkage have generally demonstrated that high levels of residential mobility following release from prison increase the risk of recidivism. For example, Makarios, Steiner, and Travis (2010) found that residential mobility was a significant predictor for rearrests and felony arrests in their statewide study in Ohio, while Meredith et al. (2007) found that the odds of a new arrest increased 25% for every move experienced by parolees in Georgia. Also in the United States, Steiner and colleagues (2015) found that offenders who moved more frequently were more likely to recidivate, but that living situations also mattered. ...
... Regarding the substantive aim of this study, neither immediate individual-level residential mobility nor neighborhood-level mobility were found to be associated with a return to prison for offenders 1 year postrelease, after controlling for various individual-and neighborhood-level predictors. This finding stands in contrast to a number of previous studies (see Makarios et al., 2010;Meredith et al., 2007;Steiner et al., 2015) although the measures of residential mobility employed in their work differ from ours. For example, Makarios et al. (2010) used the total residential changes in a yearlong follow-up period as a measure of residential stability, while Steiner et al. (2015) was more focused on examining the effect of the continuing changes of individual residences on recidivism and on the living conditions of offenders. ...
A number of studies have shown that the residential mobility of an offender postrelease can significantly influence recidivism. Research has also shown how the mobility of neighborhoods into which offenders are released is an important contextual factor that predicts recidivism. Within the social disorganization framework, this study combines these lines of research by examining the effect of both individual- and neighborhood-level residential mobility on recidivism for a cohort of high-risk prisoners released on parole in New Zealand. Using multilevel analysis techniques, we found that neither immediate individual-level residential mobility nor neighborhood-level mobility was associated with recidivism after controlling for various multilevel predictors. A number of individual- and neighborhood-level variables were predictive of recidivism, including the number of parole conditions placed on the released offender, and the percent foreign born in their neighborhood. These results are discussed within the context of an increasingly eclectic and diverse country.
... One factor that is pivotal for a successful transition is employment. Parolees who reenter society and find legitimate employment are significantly less likely to be reincarcerated (e.g., Meredith, Speir, and Johnson 2007). Steady employment not only provides necessary financial resources, but regular employment also structures a parolee's schedule and minimizes the time for criminal behavior. ...
... Prior studies examining the effects of unemployment on recidivism have focused largely on whether a parolee was able to obtain a job after release or whether a parolee was unemployed at the time of rearrest (Meredith, Speir, and Johnson 2007), whereas other studies have instead focused on the challenges parolees face in securing employment (Pager 2003;Travis 2005). Although the barriers to employment have been well documented, few studies have examined how the location and distribution of job opportunities relative to a parolee's residence might influence recidivism. ...
Prior research has shown that employed parolees are less likely to recidivate. Yet, these studies often ignore the underlying employment context of the neighborhoods to which parolees return. Given that parolees often reside in disadvantaged neighborhoods, it is likely that few potential employment opportunities exist nearby, and those opportunities that do exist are of relatively poor quality. This study examines the influence of geographic access to employment opportunities on the likelihood of recidivism. We use a unique data set of parolees and jobs in Ohio to determine whether parolees living closer to a greater number of potential employers or higher-paying jobs are less likely to recidivate. Further, we examine if these relationships are conditioned by parolee race. More job opportunities and higher paying jobs closer to the parolees' homes increase recidivism, and the likelihood of recidivating is highest within smaller geographic distances. Because many parolees reside in the inner city, jobs located within close proximity of parolees are likely white-collar, reflecting the increased competition for low-skill jobs close to where the parolee lives. Our findings indicate that this may be particularly true for black parolees. This suggests policy changes that reduce competition for low-skill positions and facilitate parolees' ability to secure employment are needed.
... Paradoxically, housing instability is consistently associated with criminal recidivism and absconding. In Georgia, every time a parolee moved, the risk of re-arrest increased by 25% (Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007). Residential instability was a robust predictor of absconding in a study of California parolees (Williams, McShane, & Dolny, 2000), and in a national sample of 2,030 offenders, those who moved multiple times during probation were almost twice as likely as stable probationers to have some sort of disciplinary hearing (Schulenberg, 2007). ...
... As well, they cautioned that transience due to SORR laws compromised the ability of probation and parole agents to closely supervise offenders without a permanent address (California Sex Offender Management Board, 2011). Housing instability is also consistently and significantly associated with criminal recidivism and absconding (Meredith et al., 2007;Schulenberg, 2007;Williams et al., 2000;Willis & Grace, 2009). Furthermore, sex offenders who are prohibited from living with family members because their homes are within buffer zones may be denied the protective factors of prosocial influences and support systems. ...
The purpose of this study was to better understand transient (homeless) sex offenders in the context of residence restriction laws. Using the entire population of registered sex offenders (RSOs) living in the community in Florida (n = 23,523), transients were compared with other sex offenders on relevant demographics, risk factors, county characteristics, and residence restriction variables. Significantly higher proportions of transient sex offenders were found in counties with a larger number of local-level restrictions, vast territory covered by these laws, wide-distance buffer zones, higher population density, and expensive housing costs. Sex offenders were more likely than the general population to become homeless. Transients were more likely than non-transients to have a history of registry violation. Few transients absconded, but when they did, they were more likely to abscond from registration than probation. When implementing sex offender management policies, lawmakers should consider transience as an unintended negative consequence.
... Paradoxically, housing instability is consistently associated with criminal recidivism and absconding. In Georgia, every time a parolee moved, the risk of re-arrest increased by 25% (Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007). Residential instability was a robust predictor of absconding in a study of California parolees (Williams, McShane, & Dolny, 2000), and in a national sample of 2,030 offenders, those who moved multiple times during probation were almost twice as likely as stable probationers to have some sort of disciplinary hearing (Schulenberg, 2007). ...
... As well, they cautioned that transience due to SORR laws compromised the ability of probation and parole agents to closely supervise offenders without a permanent address (California Sex Offender Management Board, 2011). Housing instability is also consistently and significantly associated with criminal recidivism and absconding (Meredith et al., 2007;Schulenberg, 2007;Williams et al., 2000;Willis & Grace, 2009). Furthermore, sex offenders who are prohibited from living with family members because their homes are within buffer zones may be denied the protective factors of prosocial influences and support systems. ...
The purpose of this study was to better understand transient (homeless) sex offenders in the context of residence restriction laws. Using the entire population of registered sex offenders (RSOs) living in the community in Florida (n = 23,523), transients were compared with other sex offenders on relevant demographics, risk factors, county characteristics, and residence restriction variables. Significantly higher proportions of transient sex offenders were found in counties with a larger number of local-level restrictions, vast territory covered by these laws, wide-distance buffer zones, higher population density, and expensive housing costs. Sex offenders were more likely than the general population to become homeless. Transients were more likely than non-transients to have a history of registry violation. Few transients absconded, but when they did, they were more likely to abscond from registration than probation. When implementing sex offender management policies, lawmakers should consider transience as an unintended negative consequence.
... These are driven in part by the direct and indirect effects of policies, including increasingly expansive systems of registration and notification, as well as residence restriction legislation specifically devoted to limiting the locations in which they can reside within a community. Sex offender transience may be viewed as a major impediment to reentry success, particularly because it has been linked to increased absconding and recidivism (California Sex Offender Management Board, 2008;Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007;Schulenberg, 2007;Williams, McShane, & Dolny, 2000;Willis & Grace, 2008. 1 Indeed, the California Sex Offender Management Board (2008, p. 2) noted that "the rise in homelessness among sex offenders needs attention because it is so closely associated with an increased level of threat to community safety." ...
... As well, transience can compromise the ability of law enforcement agents to closely supervise sex offenders who do not have a permanent address (California Sex Offender Management Board, 2011;Levenson et al., 2013b). Prior research has linked housing instability to criminal recidivism and absconding (e.g., Meredith et al., 2007;Schulenberg, 2007;Williams et al., 2000;Willis & Grace, 2009); thus, preventing and remedying transience are valuable case management goals. Furthermore, RSOs who cannot live with family members due to SORRs may be denied the protective factors of prosocial influences and support systems (Levenson et al., 2013b). ...
The transience of registered sex offenders (RSOs) is a major impediment to reentry success, particularly because it has been linked to increased absconding and recidivism, and thus decreased community safety. Unfortunately, there is limited existing research on what factors most influence this transience. The purpose of this study was to identify and explore the relative influence of factors predicting transience for RSOs. Using data gathered from the Florida sex offender registry and multiple supplemental state and federal data sources, the analysis revealed a number of county- and individual-level characteristics that are associated with the likelihood of RSO transience. At the county level, these include residence restriction coverage, housing affordability, and population density. At the individual level, these include age, minority status, victim type (minor vs. adult), risk level, supervision status, and prior failure to register convictions. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.
... La Vigne and Parthasarathy's (2005) report on reentry and residential mobility in Illinois indicates that after being released from prison for 1 year, 20% of parolees had experienced at least one move. Furthermore, Meredith, Speir, and Johnson (2007) found that the odds of a new arrest increased 25% for every move experienced by parolees in Georgia. Petersilia (2003) points out that lack of access to rehabilitative programming is another major barrier to successful reentry. ...
... The findings also indicate that there is a relationship between residential mobility and recidivism. These findings are consistent with prior research (Meredith et al., 2007) and suggest that finding stable housing is an important aspect of inmate reentry. Although this research indicates that parolees who moved more frequently were more likely to recidivate, it does not indicate the causal mechanism that links residential mobility to criminal behavior. ...
Deficits in education, employment, and housing as well as the lack of treatment programs pose significant barriers to the successful reentry of inmates released from prison. This research uses a representative sample of inmates released from Ohio prisons to examine the extent to which these factors are associated with recidivism. Furthermore, building on prior research, it examines potential differences in these predictors by gender. The findings provide support for Petersilia’s suggestions and indicate that employment, housing, and the completion of some forms of treatment are negatively associated with multiple measures of recidivism. Also, no gender differences in the predictors examined here are detected, suggesting that the factors likely behave in a gender-neutral manner.
... In California, after a 2,000-foot state law was implemented, the number of sex offenders registering as transient rose by 60% within a year (California Sex Offender Management Board, 2008). Research has shown that transience and housing instability are consistently and strongly correlated with recidivism, parole violations, and absconding in samples of criminal offenders, generally, and sex offenders, specifically (Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007;Schulenberg, 2007;Williams, McShane, & Dolny, 2000;Willis & Grace, 2008). Thus, these factors may create not only administrative problems for law enforcement but also an environment of greater risk for potential victims. ...
... The results should also be considered in conjunction with the known unintended consequences of residence restrictions for sexual offenders, such as housing instability, increased environmental and psychosocial stressors, and relocation farther from employment, family, and treatment facilities (Levenson & Cotter, 2005b;Mercado et al., 2008;Tewksbury & Levenson, 2007). Given that these are precisely the types of factors found to contribute to increased risk of recidivism for criminal and sexual offenders (Meredith et al., 2007;Schulenberg, 2007;Willis & Grace, 2008), the net effect of residence restrictions might be less than helpful. In the absence of empirical evidence supporting the premise that these laws protect communities, there appears to be no compelling rationale for continuing to perpetuate a policy that, at best, promotes a false sense of security and, at worst, may increase risk. ...
Many municipalities have recently extended residence restrictions for sex offenders beyond the provisions of state law, although the efficacy of these measures in reducing recidivism has not been empirically established. This study used arrest histories in Jacksonville, Florida, to assess the effects of a recently expanded municipal 2,500-foot residence restriction ordinance on sex crimes and sex offense recidivism. Using a quasiexperimental design, pre- and posttest measures of recidivism were compared, and no significant differences in citywide sex crimes or recidivist sex crimes were found. In addition, time-series analysis revealed no significant differences in sex crime trends over time when compared with nonsex crimes from the same offender sample. After controlling for several demographic factors, individual-level multivariate results indicate that the timing of the residence restriction policy was not associated with a meaningful change in sex crime arrests or sex offender recidivism after the policy implementation date, suggesting that the residence restriction did not achieve its intended goal of reducing recidivism.
... This finding remained stable even after we controlled for the type of initial housing and community-level factors. This aligns with previous research: People under community supervision who move, and move frequently, are at a greater risk of recidivism (Meredith et al., 2007;Rydberg et al., 2022;Steiner et al., 2015;Wolff et al., 2017). It is possible this risk is derived from the disruption of social support networks that occurs during such mobility (Rocque et al., 2013;Steiner et al, 2015). ...
... Most importantly, however, Hagan and McCarthy's (1997) have higher rates of reoffending and imprisonment than those who do (Baldry et al. 2006Dawson et al. 2011;Meredith 2007;Zhang, Roberts & Callanan 2006 For further information about the DUMA program see Sweeney and Payne (2012). ...
It is generally accepted that a person’s living situation, in particular their experience of homelessness and housing stress, can have both long-lasting and wide-ranging consequences. For criminal justice practitioners, the task of limiting homelessness and preventing crime remain key policy priorities in need of ongoing and integrated research. This paper provides a much needed examination of homelessness and housing stress among Australia’s criminal justice population. Using data from the AIC’s Drug Use Monitoring in Australia program, this study examines the prevalence and nature of homelessness among a sample of police detainees. It is the first of its kind to examine a broader range of homelessness experiences and the reasons why some offenders have few choices but to ‘sleep rough’ or seek accommodation support. Importantly, the authors estimate that 22 percent of the detainee population is homeless or experiencing housing stress in some form; much higher than has been previously estimated. This research reaffirms the need for intensive accommodation support services to complement criminal justice responses to crime and those who have contact with the criminal justice system.
... These tools are used in many socially relevant contexts such as public health, information security, project management, auditing, and criminal justice (Raz, 2001;Alberts & Dorofee, 2003;Allen et al., 2006;Anenberg et al., 2016). In the field of criminal justice, they are applied in different areas such as pre-trial risk assessment, sentencing, probation, and parole (Kehl & Kessler, 2017;Lowenkamp, 2009;Miron et al., 2021;Wright et al., 1984;Funk, 1999;Meredith et al., 2007). The risk estimated by these tools can be linked to an intervention consistent with the computed risk. ...
Objectives
To study the effect of Conditional Release (C.R.) on recidivism. To compare this effect along different recidivism risk levels, to evaluate whether risk-assessment-based policies that prioritize people in lower risk categories for release maximally reduce recidivism.
Methods
We use a dataset of 22,726 incarcerated persons released from 87 prison centers in Spain. We apply multiple causal inference methods including Propensity Score Matching (PSM), Inverse Propensity score Weighting (IPW), and Augmented Inverse Propensity Weighting (AIPW) to determine Average Treatment Effect (ATE) of C.R. on recidivism.
Results
Granting C.R. significantly reduces violent and general recidivism risks.
Conclusions
The results suggest that C.R. can promote a safe and supervised return to the community while protecting public safety. ATEs obtained through causal inference methods suggest that granting C.R. exclusively to low-risk inmates does not lead to the maximum reduction of recidivism, and hence we propose alternatives to be studied further.
... There is a strong relationship between desistance and an individual's ability to obtain and maintain stable employment (Bender et al., 2016;Davis et al., 2013;Ramakers et al., 2017;Willis & Grace, 2008;Western et al., 2015). That is, people on parole who have employment are three times more likely than those who are unemployed to remain crime free (Meredith et al., 2007), while the inability to find employment can result in other collateral consequences (e.g., lack of secure housing), which may ultimately result in reoffending (Evans & Porter, 2015;Whipple et al., 2016). This is particularly concerning given that prior studies have shown as many as half of formerly incarcerated individuals are unable to secure a job through the first year following release (Travis et al., 2014); this may be a result of stigma or lack of qualifications (e.g., educational degrees, prior work experience, professional licenses; Adams et al., 2017;Ewald & Uggen, 2012;LeBel & Maruna, 2012;Souza et al., 2015). ...
While there is a wealth of literature on recidivism following release from correctional facilities, it remains unclear whether this desistance process varies across offender types. Specifically, individuals convicted of sexual offenses (ICSOs) may face unique challenges upon return to the community and thus, it is important to explore how ICSOs plans for transitioning to the community and remaining crime free differ from individuals convicted of general (non-sexual) offenses’(ICGOs). To this end, the present mixed-methods study aimed to explore both ICSOs and ICGOs perceptions of reentry and desistance upon release from prison. A sample of male ICGOs (n = 139) and ICSOs (n = 106) nearing release from a maximum-security prison were interviewed about their crimes and expectations upon release. Overall, ICSOs and ICGOs reported similar levels of preparedness for reentry and obstacles to desistence (e.g., negative influences, employment/schooling). However, ICSOs anticipated difficulty complying with restrictions, which may be a result of the unique legislation they are subject to upon release. Overall, this study sheds light on the importance of programming and transition services to prepare those being released from correctional facilities for reentry, particularly those convicted of a sexual offense who may face additional barriers when returning to their communities.
... Among a sample of individuals on parole in Ohio who were followed for 1 year after release, each additional residence change translated to a 70%-196% increase in the odds of a rearrest (Makarios et al., 2010;Steiner et al., 2015). In Georgia, the risk of rearrest increased by 25% each time an individual on parole changed residences (Meredith et al., 2007). Similar associations have been observed among individuals on probation supervision, particularly for those with low-risk or less severe offenses (Jacobs & Gottlieb, 2020). ...
It is widely understood that stable housing is a key element in the transition from prison to the community. However, many persons under correctional supervision face substantial barriers in securing and maintaining housing, a fact that is heightened among individuals with a sexual offense conviction. Although frequent movement is commonplace among people on parole, it is unclear how housing changes affect recidivism outcomes and whether such mobility uniquely impacts individuals with a sexual offense conviction. In the present study, we use a quasi-experimental propensity score weighting design to compare a sample of individuals paroled from prison in Michigan for sexual and non-sexual crimes ( N = 3930) to consider the role of housing mobility on the likelihood of rearrests and technical revocation, with attention to disaggregating sexual crimes against adults and children. Results suggest that increased movement was distinctly associated with a higher hazard of rearrest for individuals with a sexual offense conviction, and a strong predictor of technical return hazard for both individuals with sexual and non-sexual convictions.
... Pekerjaan adalah penting kepada proses integrasi semula dan menunjukkan bahawa kerja yang stabil dapat mengurangkan insentif yang membawa bekas banduan kembali kepada penglibatan ke dalam jenayah (Baron, 2008;Sampson, Laub, & Wimer, 2006;Western, 2006). Sebaliknya, pengangguran menyebabkan kecenderungan yang tinggi untuk mengulangi perbuatan jenayah dalam kalangan bekas banduan (Meredith, Speir & Johnson, 2007;Morenoff & Harding, 2011). Pekerjaan memberi bekas banduan rasa tujuan dan maksud hidup, sambil menyediakan rutin dan mengurangkan pendedahan kepada situasi yang boleh menyebabkan mereka terlibat semula ke dalam tingkah laku jenayah (Berg & Huebner, 2011). ...
Abstrak: Pengangguran dalam kalangan bekas banduan selepas dibebaskan dari penjara membawa kepada kecederungan mereka untuk melakukan jenayah bagi menampung kehidupan mereka. Pebagai faktor pengangguran yang dikenalpasti dari segi rekod jenayah yang dimiliki, stigma majikan dalam mengajikan bekas banduan, tahap pendidikan yang rendah, dan ketiadaan pengalaman kerja. Keadaan ini membawa kepada suatu inisiatif untuk membuktikan akan wujudnya hubungan di antara pengangguran bekas banduan dengan perkembalian mereka ini ke dalam aktiviti jenayah ini. Kajian ini bertitik tolak dari sebuah kajian peringkat Doktor Falsafah mengenai faktor pengulangan jenayah dalam kalangan bekas banduan. Salah satu daripada
... 56 Duff (2001: 5). 57 See Fontaine (2013), Meredith et al. (2007), Benda et al. (2005 and Uggen (2000). 58 Hoskins (2019: 110-115). ...
This paper concerns what if any obligations a “society of equals” has to criminal offenders after legal punishment ends. In the United States, when people leave prisons, they are confronted with a wide range of federal, state, and local laws that burden their ability to secure welfare benefits, public housing, employment opportunities, and student loans. Since the 1980s, these legal consequences of criminal convictions have steadily increased in their number, severity, and scope. The central question I want to ask is whether the infliction of these burdensome legal consequences for those who have already been punished by the state is consistent with the ideal of equality. I argue that these collateral legal consequences violate relational egalitarian principles of justice and are thus objectionable. I conclude by examining possible objections to my argument.
... Parole agency policy required officers to conduct home visits for all cases except those with the lowest level of supervision or on administrative status. Contact frequency varied based on supervision levels informed by a validated actuarial risk instrument (Meredith et al., 2007) and case circumstances. Cases with people on parole who committed egregious, high-profile, and violent offenses were automatically assigned as high risk, and persons with serious mental health issues and sexual crime convictions were designated as specialized cases. ...
Home visits provide a space for officer–supervisee encounters. However, little is known about the dynamics of home visits and their association with supervision outcomes. This study examines the context, content, and role of home visits in parole. Home visits are described using systematic observation data of officer-initiated contacts ( N = 383). The average visit included only those on parole, inside a single-family home, lasted 8 minutes, was conducive to discussions, and covered rules and needs topics. A separate agency records dataset ( N = 26,878) was used to estimate Cox hazard models. Findings suggest that each visit is related to reduced risk of a new felony arrest or a revocation, controlling for criminogenic factors and supervision activities. Risk was further associated with a reduction if officers engaged in mixed-topic discussions (rules and needs). Home visits can enable officers to help people on parole successfully navigate the challenges of reentry.
... Obtaining employment is a key component of successful reintegration into the community for justice-involved individuals (Andrews & Bonta, 2017;Uggen, 2000;Uggen & Wakefield, 2008). One study, for example, showed that employed ex-offenders were up to three times more likely to be arrest-free compared to unemployed exoffenders (Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007). Simply put, rewarding jobs lead to reduced criminal activity (Wadsworth, 2006). ...
Finding and maintaining employment postrelease is an important component in reducing recidivism and promoting successful reintegration for returning citizens. The primary purpose of the current study was to identify and gain a clearer understanding of both internal/individual (i.e., attitudes toward work, criminogenic thinking, antisocial associates, general mental health) and external/situational factors (i.e., reliable transportation, possession of identification, Internet access, type of residence) affecting employment status using a sample of 75 higher-risk community-supervised offenders (employed: n = 33; unemployed: n = 42). Unemployed offenders endorsed higher reactive criminal thinking (indicative of impulsivity) than those who were employed; no other differences in criminogenic thinking or association with antisocial others were found. Perceptions of work volition were significantly different across groups; however, feelings of work alienation were not. Further, significantly more unemployed offenders self-reported having a mental health diagnosis (other than a substance use disorder) and endorsed statistically and clinically significantly higher levels of psychological distress as compared to employed offenders. Regarding situational factors, although no statistically significant differences were found between the unemployed and employed groups, those who were employed were twice as likely to have access to the Internet. Based on these findings, it is recommended that correctional vocational programs incorporate psychological and cognitive interventions, not simply focus on skills training and logistical considerations. Future directions for research are discussed, including the need to monitor job success over time. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
... R. Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990;Hirschi, 1969;Sampson & Laub, 1993; W. J. Wilson, 1996) and may limit exposure to crime opportunities (e.g., Cohen & Felson, 1979). Employed parolees are up to three times more likely than their unemployed counterparts to remain arrest free (Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007). Inmates who participate in prison-based vocational training are significantly more likely than those who do not participate to find employment after release and significantly less likely to recidivate (D. ...
Returning citizens face significant barriers to reintegration after incarceration, yet evidence for the effectiveness of reentry programs is limited. A possible explanation is the lack of specificity in matching services to individuals’ unique risk and need profiles. To assess the impact of this “service–need fit” on both self-reported and official recidivism, we conducted a secondary analysis of data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative (SVORI) evaluation using propensity score modeling and logistic regression. Increased fit was significantly associated with reduced recidivism for both types of outcome. We also found that fewer than half of the participants received the services they said they needed. Our findings are based on self-reported needs and services rather than clinical risk assessments. However, service–need fit appears to be an important determinant of successful reentry. Future research should focus on optimizing the combination and tailoring of services and integrating perceived need with actuarial assessments.
... The development of risk assessment tools is based on the premise that there are certain personal and environmental characteristics that can be used to predict the risk of future practice of criminal acts (Gendreau, Little & Goggin, 1996;Meredith, Speir & Johnson, 2007 importance, and those that should be considered only minor or even irrelevant (Bonta, Law & Hanson, 1998;Farrington, 2003;Gendreau, Little & Goggin 1996;Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004;LeBlanc, 2005;Loeber & Hay, 1997). ...
This is the third volume stemming from the annual doctoral conferences organizedby the GERN (Groupement Européen de Recherches sur les Normativités). The GERN is a multidisciplinary consortium of universities, research institutes and scientific researchers in the domain of criminology, deviance and social control. This scientific network of academics organize different types of scientific events (one-day conference-’interlabos’, conferences, research seminars and workinggroups), aiming to foster the culture of collaboration that characterize this group.
... Further, because spatial restriction zones limit housing availability (Zandbergen and Hart, 2006;Chajewski and Calkins-Mercado, 2009;Barnes et al., 2009), convicted offenders are often forced into socially disorganized areas (Levenson and Cotter, 2005;Hipp, et al, 2010). While this is not necessarily an outcome of residence restrictions (Grubesic et al., 2007), research suggests that offenders who suffer from housing instability are more likely to recidivate or abscond (Meredith et al., 2007;Willis and Grace, 2008). ...
The social, economic, and cultural impacts of sex offender legislation are topics of considerable interest in recent years. Despite the number of studies evaluating the collateral consequences of these laws, the implications of spatial restrictions on housing availability and residential mobility for convicted sex offenders remain an empirical question. Because of the social implications, but also risks associated with recidivism, a better understanding of the spatio-temporal movements of sex offenders is critical for developing effective management policies and strategies aimed at promoting public safety. The purpose of this chapter is to analyze sex offender residential movement patterns over a 2.5 year period in Hamilton County, Ohio. Using geographic information systems and a developed exploratory system, SOSTAT, this study uncovers significant trends and behavioral patterns that shed light on offender reintegration, their residential mobility and the implications of residency restrictions on both offenders and community.
... Conceivably, if proper methods of development are adhered to at each stage, the instrument should perform better than an off-the-shelf instrument, which lacks item and outcome tailoring and localized context provided by the agency crafted prediction models (Wright, Clear, & Dickson, 1984). Currently, many state's correctional systems utilize customized instruments, including: Minnesota (Duwe, 2014), georgia (Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007), and Texas (http://www.tdcj. state.tx.us/) to highlight a few. ...
Recidivism risk assessment tools have been utilized for decades. Although their implementation and use have the potential to touch nearly every aspect of the correctional system, the creation and examination of optimal development methods have been restricted to a small group of instrument developers. Furthermore, the methodological variation among common instruments used nationally is substantial. The current study examines this variation by reviewing methodologies used to develop several existing assessments and then tests a variety of design variations in an attempt to isolate and select those which provide improved content and predictive performance using a large sample (N = 44,010) of reentering offenders in Washington State. Study efforts were completed in an attempt to isolate and identify potential incremental performance achievements. Findings identify a methodology for improved prediction model performance and, in turn, describe the development and introduction of the Washington State Department of Correction’s recidivism prediction instrument—the Static Risk Offender Need guide for Recidivism (STRONG-R).
... The barriers to reentry most commonly identified include finding employment, securing housing, family reunification, transportation, health care, accessing treatment programs, and adhering to the conditions of parole (Petersilia, 2003;Travis, 2005). Employment is a critical component for successful reentry: parolees who are employed may be up to three times less likely to be arrested compared to parolees who are unemployed (Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007;PAROLEE CONCENTRATION AND RECIDIVISM 3 Petersilia, 2003). Stable employment provides parolees with financial resources and connections to mainstream society. ...
Recent scholarship focuses on the role neighborhood context plays in reoffending. These studies lack an examination of how the size of the parolee population at the neighborhood-level impacts individual recidivism. We examine how the size and clustering of parolee populations within and across neighborhoods impacts individual-level recidivism. Using data from parolees returning to three Ohio cities from 2000 to 2009, we examine how concentrations of parolees in neighborhoods and in the surrounding neighborhoods impact the likelihood of reoffending. We also examine whether parolee clustering conditions the relationship between neighborhood-level characteristics and recidivism. Results show concentrated reentry increases recidivism, while parolees in stable neighborhoods are less likely to recidivate. Also, the positive effect of parolee concentration is tempered when parolees return to stable neighborhoods. These findings suggest that augmenting resources available in neighborhoods saturated by parolees, as well as bolstering residential stability in these same neighborhoods might reduce reoffending.
... O desenvolvimento dos instrumentos de avaliação do risco assenta na premissa de que determinadas características pessoais e ambientais podem ser usadas para predizer o risco da prática futura de atos criminais (Gendreau, Little, & Goggin, 1996;Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007). Após um período de descrença com a possibilidade de avaliar o risco de reincidência criminal e o risco de violência (Monahan, 1981;Steadman & Cocozza, 1974), uma crescente literatura tem-se dedicado à validação de instrumentos destinados a realizar esta complexa tarefa (cf. . ...
This paper reports data from the normative study of the Portuguese version of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), risk assessment tool designed to assess risk for general recidivism, identify criminogenic needs and guide case management of young offenders. Normative data of Portuguese YLS/CMI were established from a sample of 2363 young offenders from juvenile justice system. Risk profiles analysis allows to differentiate young offenders by gender, procedural phase, criminal behavior and sociocultural context. Implications regarding these results for assessment and case management of young offenders in the forensic area are discussed. © 2015, Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada. All rights reserved.
... Residential instability may also weaken offenders' stake in conformity or attachment to their community (Sampson, 1991;Wooldredge & Thistlethwaite, 2002). Findings from related studies suggest that offenders who move more often are more likely to recidivate (Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007;Visher & Courtney, 2007). ...
Drawing from theories of social control, this study involved an examination of the time-varying effects of six different residential situations and residential mobility on offenders’ odds of recidivism during the year immediately following their release from prison. Analyses of data collected on a statewide sample of offenders released under supervision in Ohio generated results favoring a control perspective. Both residential mobility and residential situations such as living with a spouse or parent were relevant for understanding differences among offenders in their odds of recidivism. Stable characteristics of offenders such as gender and prior criminal history were also linked to recidivism.
... Most importantly, however, Hagan and McCarthy's (1997) have higher rates of reoffending and imprisonment than those who do (Baldry et al. 2006Dawson et al. 2011;Meredith 2007;Zhang, Roberts & Callanan 2006 For further information about the DUMA program see Sweeney and Payne (2012). ...
The Australian Bureau of Statistics, using the 2011 Australian Census, has estimated that on any given night in 2011, approximately 105,000 Australians were homeless (ABS 2012). The majority resided in either severely overcrowded residential dwellings (39%) or in supported accommodation designed specifically for those without a permanent place of residence (20%). Among them, young males, Indigenous Australians and those born overseas were overrepresented. Yet despite all the information that has been collected, there remains a significant gap in the national conversation about the causes, correlates and more importantly the consequences of homelessness (including primary, secondary and tertiary homelessness; see Homelessness Taskforce 2008) in the Australian context. The idea that a person's living situation can infuence their involvement in criminal activity has long been acknowledged, with homelessness in particular having been the focus of extensive theoretical and empirical criminological research (see Grimshaw 2002). Although long recognised as an important indicator of social disadvantage, homelessness as a cause of crime found renewed attention with the release of Hagan and Macarthy's (1997) detailed depiction of youth crime and homelessness in two Canadian cities. Titled Mean Streets: Youth Crime and Homelessness, the authors examined qualitative and quantitative data to explore the often difficult and challenging circumstances faced by homeless youth. Their study lent significant support to the idea that homelessness, together with relative deprivation and monetary dissatisfaction, is one of a number of 'strains' that can infuence individuals to engage in criminal activity (see also Agnew 2006).
... Scally and Newman (2003) observe that unaddressed housing instability among returning offenders does little to break cycles of offending and may present a public safety risk. Indeed, Meredith, Speir, and Johnson (2007) found that each address change made by a parolee increased the likelihood of rearrest by 25%. Most recently, Makarios, Steiner, and Travis (2010) and Steiner and colleagues (2011) also found a positive relationship between the frequent residential changes and the probability of rearrest, net of other factors. ...
Securing stable housing may be difficult for returning offenders in general, and these concerns may be exacerbated for sex offenders. In addition to the barriers faced by other returning offenders, sex offenders face intense stigma and once released to the community, they are also subject to additional legal restrictions. The current study explores the effect of statewide residency restriction policies on housing mobility using a unique sample of male sex offenders released in a Midwestern state. The research is based on a quasi-experimental cohort control group design and it describes the frequency and correlation of movement for pre- and post-statewide residency restriction legislation samples. Sex offenders released after the implementation of residency restrictions moved more often and had relatively high degrees of housing mobility compared to offenders released prior to the legislation. The results have important implications for reentry programming and post-release services for sex offenders.
... Completing rehabilitation programming may reduce offenders' odds of engaging in deviance because treatment may equip them with skills that enhance human capital and facilitate the adoption of prosocial roles (Committee on Community Supervision and Desistance from Crime, 2008;MacKenzie, 2000;Travis & Visher, 2005;Visher & Courtney, 2007). Findings from related studies suggest that offenders who are employed or have more stable residential situations have lower odds of recidivism (DeJong, 1997;Gendreau, Little, & Goggin, 1996;Griffin & Armstrong, 2003;MacKenzie & De Li, 2002;Meredith, Speir, & Johnson, 2007;Uggen et al., 2005;Visher & Courtney, 2007;Wooldredge & Thistlethwaite, 2002). Evidence regarding the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs in general is varied (Committee on Community Supervision and Desistance from Crime, 2008; Drake, Aos, & Miller, 2009;Petersilia, 2003); however, reviews of evaluations of treatment programs have revealed that some programs work for some offenders some of the time (MacKenzie, 2006;Petersilia, 2003). ...
Offenders who violate their conditions of release (parole violators) pose a threat to public safety and a unique challenge for parole officials. Historically, parole officers have simply revoked the parole of these offenders and returned them to prison; however, increases in state correctional populations have forced many jurisdictions to experiment with sanctions administered by parole officers in the community. Community‐based sanctions are sanctions administered by parole officers as consequences for noncompliance with release conditions that are ultimately intended to reduce parole violators’ odds of recidivism. Yet, the effects of these types of sanctions are still relatively unknown. Drawing from perspectives on formal and informal social control, this study involved an examination of the effect of community‐based sanctions on parole violators’ odds of recidivism. Findings revealed that formal controls such as community‐based sanctions that were applied with certainty, severity, and in a swift manner along with informal controls such as measures of offenders’ stake in conformity had effects on parole violators’ odds of recidivism and time to recidivism.
This study critically examines the effectiveness of residency restrictions for sex offenders in South Korea by analyzing crime proximity and patterns. Using data from the 2015 Korean Ministry of Justice report, the study examines sex offenders under electronic monitoring from 2012 to 2014. The results show that crimes involving child victims occurred closer to offenders’ residences than those involving adult victims, partially supporting the rationale behind residency restrictions. However, the proximity of crimes against unfamiliar victims raises questions about the overall effectiveness of these policies Regression analysis showed that prior offenses and IQ predicted crime distance, but alcohol use and psychopathy did not. The study concludes that residency restrictions offer limited protection and recommends a comprehensive approach, including monitoring and support programs, to reduce recidivism and improve community safety. Policymakers should consider additional measures beyond physical distance constraints to mitigate risks posed by sex offenders.
Finding and maintaining employment is difficult for ex-offenders due to their criminal history but often required for community supervision. How ex-offenders discuss criminal history can influence their employment chances. Research has not yet explored moderating effects of race and ethnicity on ex-offender impression management when seeking employment. This study investigates how impression management strategies affect ex-offender hiring and whether race or ethnicity moderates such effects. College students ( N = 198) were randomly assigned to vignettes describing an ex-offender job applicant which varied in impression management and race and ethnicity. Participants rated applicants on factors related to hiring decisions. Results indicate ex-offenders who apologized when discussing criminal history received stronger hiring recommendations. Race and ethnicity of the participant or ex-offender did not moderate the effect of impression management on hiring. Overall, ex-offenders benefitted equally from an apologetic strategy when discussing their criminal history regardless of their or the hiring manager’s race or ethnicity.
Formerly incarcerated people have a difficult time finding employment upon release. Research has suggested the effectiveness in utilizing one’s social capital and social networks, particularly through family, as a means of securing stable employment post-prison. However, the social connections necessary—maintained via prison visitation—are often weakened due to long-term incarceration and multiple prison stints. Data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative (SVORI) are used to investigate whether individuals were able to find employment within 3 months after release. Results suggest that individuals who have committed serious crimes likely have more strained family relationships; making family members’ willingness to vouch for employment on their behalf, less likely. Implications regarding policy and practice for corrections and reentry are discussed.
This study examines several family structural variables that have a hypothesized effect on delinquency, substance abuse, and violence. We conducted a survey for potential correlates of Sampson and Laub's age-graded informal social control theory variables within the Turkish context. Our large sample size (31,272), drawn from high school students in Istanbul, Turkey, allowed us to test the effects of family settings on youth deviance by using various statistical tests and programs. Our findings indicate that juveniles exposed to parental substance abuse are more likely to use illegal substances, commit a greater number of delinquent acts, and participate in more instances of violent behavior. Additionally, family social capital, residential mobility, religiosity, and the number of siblings were some other statistically significant correlates of delinquency.
Risk assessment is one of the main areas of interest of experts dedicated to the analysis of offenders convicted to imprisonment. After theoretical assumptions, consideration of the Risk Assessment Questionnaire and relevant research in this area, we present results of an empirical study conducted in PCI Sremska Mitrovica, on a sample of 150 offenders released between 2016 and 2018. The basic hypotheses were: (1) most offenders are primarily classified into closed wards; (2) most offenders advance during the treatment into a more favorable category, and (3) those who have advanced are paroled. The hypotheses are analysed from the aspect of estimated risk based on Risk Assessment Questionnaire and being in a particular treatment group. These hypotheses have been confirmed.
Transitional housing is primarily provided as social assistance. There is some
evidence that providing transitional housing to offenders exiting prison can reduce
reoffending, particularly among serious violent offenders.
Using multiple performance metrics, this study externally validates the Minnesota Screening Tool Assessing Recidivism Risk (MnSTARR) among a sample of 3,985 inmates released from Minnesota prisons in 2014. While the Minnesota Department of Corrections implemented a fully-automated risk assessment (MnSTARR 2.0) in 2016, the original MnSTARR was a manually-scored, gender-specific recidivism risk assessment that predicted multiple types of recidivism – felony, nonviolent, violent, and both first-time and repeat sexual offending (only for males). The results show the MnSTARR achieved adequate predictive performance. The average area under the curve (AUC) was 0.73 for males and 0.77 for females. Nonetheless, the MnSTARR would have achieved better predictive performance had it used an automated scoring process. Further, the findings showed the MnSTARR performed better for Whites than Nonwhites, and the magnitude of this difference would have been minimized using automated scoring. In sum, while the MnSTARR had adequate validity, performance is likely to be improved with automated systems.
Parole board members consider a number of behavioral, demographic, and criminogenic factors when making a decision to release a person from prison. The role of victims’ correspondence on such decision-making has also been examined, but less well understood is the role of non-victim correspondence, despite substantial evidence that social support networks are crucial to reentry success and reducing recidivism. Drawing upon a sample of 694 randomly selected cases involving men incarcerated in Iowa, the present study examines the relationship between non-victim correspondence and release decisions. Thirty-six percent of the sample had correspondence included in their parole hearing file with the majority written by family and friends, judicial actors, or correctional officers. Neither intensity of correspondence, the persuasion, nor the identities of non-victim authors were significantly associated with release decision in multivariate modeling. Instead, correctional counselor recommendation, risk assessment, and race emerged as significant factors in directing parole board member decision-making.
The objective of this analysis was to identify factors that Columbus, Ohio private property owners and managers consider when screening potential tenants with criminal records. This objective is achieved by examining qualitative data derived from an earlier experimental study. Findings indicate that private property owners and managers examine several factors regarding a criminal record such as type of offense, age of offense, number of offenses, and additional positive factors such as consistent work history or demonstration of rehabilitation. Differences also exist depending on whether the property is a single or multiple-family dwelling and also whether the property is located in a disadvantaged neighborhood. From these findings, policy recommendations are presented.
Recent research on recidivism emphasizes the importance of neighborhoods to successful prisoner reentry. This research analyzes two ways in which institutions of neighborhood governance affect reentry. First, offenders in neighborhoods with institutions supporting social control may have more success in reintegrating into the community. Second, neighborhood institutions may create barriers to entry for ex-offenders more likely to reoffend. To test this, we combine Arkansas Department of Corrections data on offenders returning to Little Rock between 2004 and 2014 with geocoded data on neighborhood and homeowner associations. We analyze this data using Cox proportional hazards and two-stage residual inclusion models of recidivism hazard. We find that a significant relationship exists between recidivism hazard and neighborhood governance, but that this is attributable to nonrandom assignment of ex-offenders to neighborhoods rather than the role neighborhood organizations play in facilitating reentry.
Parole officers are an integral part of parolees’ reentry process and success. Few studies, however, have examined whether the quality of the relationship between parolees and their parole officer influences outcomes such as recidivism. This study assesses how recidivism is affected by the quality of the relationship that parolees have with their parole officers. Using the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative (SVORI) dataset, we use parolees’ perceptions of their relationship with their parole officer to determine whether they have established a positive or negative relationship, and whether these types of relationships differentially affect recidivism. Results show that parolees who have a negative relationship with their parole officer have higher rates of recidivism, while a positive relationship lowers parolees’ likelihood of recidivating. An implication of this study emphasizes parole officer training that develops positive, high-quality relationships with parolees. Further implications are discussed below.
The current study utilized a natural experiment, an oil boom in North Dakota, to examine changes in offender reentry and recidivism outcomes. The quantitative study compared a sample of male offenders released from prisons within one state prior to the oil boom to a sample of male offenders released during the highest peak of the boom. Comparisons were made on variables known in the literature to be predictive of recidivism during the reentry process; these include risk, education, employment, housing, substance abuse, and treatment. Findings show the oil boom had a negative impact on offender reentry. Offenders released from prison during the height of the oil boom were more likely to recidivate than offenders released prior to the oil boom.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has changed its position toward housing individuals with criminal records from strict one-strike policies in the 1980s to providing second chances to returning citizens. Many public housing authorities have not updated their admission policies for using criminal backgrounds and still adhere to the one-strike philosophy. In response to new guidance from HUD, housing agencies are trying to find a balance between screening practices to identify demonstrable risk but avoid discrimination and violation of the Fair Housing Act. This research examines several questions critical to assisting housing providers to address the new guidance from HUD. Findings provide direction for housing providers on understanding recidivism risk rates, using useful lookback periods, considering risk and harm across crime types, and verifying rehabilitation and other evidence to design informed policies and procedures for using criminal records in admission decisions for assisted housing.
There are perhaps no crimes that instill fear and rage in society like sexual offenses. This chapter will first summarize the history of contemporary sex offender registries and community management policies over the past two decades. Then, the effectiveness and impact of these laws will be described, as well as the pros and cons of residential restrictions that have emerged in an effort to protect children from sexual predators. Finally, evidence-based recommendations for registry reform will be offered that focus on narrowing the scope of registries through risk assessment, allowing more discretion to judicial decision-makers, and reducing barriers to reintegration and rehabilitation that are often unintended consequences of these laws.
This chapter presents an overview of sex offender residence restriction (SORR) policies and how they have expanded in recent years. The historical rationale for the development of these laws is presented and contrasted with the situational sexual violence prevention literature and stranger danger myth of sexual offenders. The effectiveness and collateral consequences of such laws will also be discussed. Finally, the chapter concludes with recommendations for evidence-based sex offender policy reform.
This chapter will first describe what is currently known about the registered sex offender (RSO) population in the USA, as well as what we know about victimization patterns. Then, common public perceptions about sexual offenders will be compared with research findings. Sex offender registration and residential restriction laws will be examined to illustrate the gaps that can exist between evidence and practice. Registration durations of 25 years to life contradict empirical evidence that risk declines with increased time spent in the community offense-free. Thus, the emphasis on registration compliance over longer registration periods will likely create an inefficient distribution of resources without contributing meaningfully to community safety. Lawmakers should invest in evidence-based policies rather than those that demonstrate negligible public safety benefit. Sexual assault is a serious social problem, and in order to be effective, prevention strategies should reflect not only public opinion, but empirical demonstration of effectiveness. This chapter will explore how contemporary sex offender management policy might better incorporate empirical research into sound prevention strategies.
As a consequence of the War on Drugs, many women experience repeated incarceration. Extant research on habitual offending has mostly focused on male offenders. Drawing upon research on female and male offenders’ recidivism, traditional theories of female criminality and the premises of GST, social control, and differential association theories, we constructed an integrated model to examine risk factors for repeated incarcerations among male and female adult offenders. We used data from the Survey of Inmates in State Correctional Facilities. Our analysis revealed that, similarly to male offenders, female offenders’ repeated incarcerations were statistically associated with drug abuse, exposure to family members’ and friends’ drug addiction, parental incarceration, and unemployment.
The number of women under community supervision has increased in recent years. However, empirical research on women parolees’ experiences is quite limited. Women parolees are faced with daunting challenges that may impede their success on parole. Using face-to-face interviews with 60 women parolees in a Southern state, this qualitative study examined the perceived barriers to women’s success on parole. Women parolees identified economic variables as critical barriers to their parole adjustment.
Purpose ‐ This paper aims to review the available evidence on the role of stable accommodation in reducing the risk of recidivism. It seeks to answer questions about the nature and extent of such a role, whether stable accommodation on its own plays a role or as part of an overall programme, and what the implications arising from the current evidence are for policy makers and practitioners. Design/methodology/approach ‐ The research strategy consisted of a number of steps. First, existing systematic reviews in the field were reviewed to identity relevant evidence. Following this, a standard search of the literature was undertaken to identity potential research for further consideration. Articles and books identified were subject to a three part test to determine relevance and robustness of method. Findings ‐ The paper suggests that the evidence base is less than clear about the role of stable accommodation in reducing risk of recidivism. The extant literature can be classified as two types; the first utilises robust methods but fails to single out accommodation as a single intervention. The second often focuses on stable accommodation but fails to use Randomised Controlled Trial or quasi-experimental methods. Research limitations/implications ‐ Taken as a whole, it is clear that stable accommodation has a potential role in programmes aimed at reducing recidivism. The nature of that role, the causal mechanisms underlying that role and the methods used to increase stability of accommodation are not clear from the literature. Originality/value ‐ The paper provides a means of classifying the extant literature and assesses this literature in terms of its methodological robustness.
Residential restrictions for sex offenders have become increasingly popular, despite the lack of empirical data suggesting that offenders’ proximity to schools or daycares contributes to recidivism. Using a matched sample of recidivists and nonrecidivists from Florida (n = 330) for the period from 2004 through 2006, the authors investigated whether sex offenders who lived closer to schools or daycares were more likely to reoffend sexually against children than those who lived farther away. No significant differences were found between the distances that recidivists and nonrecidivists lived from schools and daycares. There was no significant relationship between reoffending and proximity to schools or daycares. The results indicate that proximity to schools and daycares, with other risk factors being comparable, does not appear to contribute to sexual recidivism. These data do not support the widespread enactment of residential restrictions for sexual offenders.
This article reports on a study of the causes and correlates of parole success and failure in Pennsylvania. Surveys, interviews, and focus groups were conducted with parole violators and parole successes. Data were collected on employment, housing, social relations, supervision, and parolees’ responses to parole challenges. The primary correlates of parole failure were found to be antisocial attitudes, poor problem-solving and coping skills, and unrealistic expectations about life after release from prison. Contrary to expectations, this study found little evidence that job acquisition or housing were significant parole challenges. The greatest problem for parolees was managing themselves in a prosocial manner while facing demands from their environment.
A paper-and-pencil measure of offender risk/needs was derived from the Level of Supervision Inventory (LSI), an interview-based classification instrument. This resulting Self-Report Inventory (SRI) was evaluated on 100 male inmates with respect to reliability, validity, and utility. A psychometric battery including the LSI was administered. The SRI demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and internal consistency as well as modest validity. The results suggest that offender self-reports, in combination with more traditional risks/needs assessment, can be useful for offender prediction and the identification of needs.
Two studies were undertaken to (1) evaluate an attempt to divert inmates to correctional halfway houses, (2) cross-validate earlier research with the Level of Supervision Inventory (LSI) on a broader offender sample, and (3) explore improved methods of prediction by increased sampling of the criterion variable. In Study 1, the LSI was used to identify potential targets for diversionary intervention. Over two-thirds of the inmates assessed by the LSI as suitable candidates for correctional halfway houses were instead transferred to institutions. In Study 2, LSI scores were used to refer inmates directly to a halfway house review board for possible community placement. The results showed that inmates were transferred to the halfway houses earlier in their sentences, thus increasing the average length of stay in the houses with no increased risk to the community. Despite the use of the LSI to identify potential halfway house candidates, a large proportion of minimum-risk inmates were still transferred to institutions. The results from both studies suggest a tendency to overclassify inmates and that the use of an objective classification instrument can serve to minimize overclassification. In addition, the studies demonstrated predictive validity for the LSI with a representative sample of inmates and improved prediction with increased sampling of the criterion behavior.
Over the last several decades, the use of risk/need assessments has had a great impact on correctional classification and treatment decisions. One instrument that is now being used by many correctional agencies in the United States is the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R). Criticisms of the LSI-R include failure to consider physical and sexual abuse as risk factors and failure to modify the instrument for the assessment of female offenders. Using a sample of 442 offenders (317 male and 125 female), this research investigates (a) the validity of the LSI-R for both females and males and (b) the relationship between childhood abuse, the LSI-R, and recidivism rates. Analyses indicated that the LSI-R is a valid (predictive) instrument for this sample of female offenders and that a history of prior abuse fails to add to the prediction of reincarceration, once risk is controlled for using the LSI-R. Implications for further research are discussed.
The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised, Level of Service Inventory– Revised, HCR-20, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form were compared in a sample of male offenders. Both correlations and receiver operating characteristics measured the relationship between the instruments and the predictive outcome criteria of institutional misconduct and release failure. Although some instruments performed better across the outcome measures, there were no statistical differences in predictive accuracy among the instruments.
Risk assessment devices are being increasingly used throughout the country. Most research has evaluated the use of such instruments with adults. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of the Wisconsin Juvenile Probation and Aftercare Risk instrument that is being promoted as a “model system” for other states to use. This study used discriminant analysis to examine the extent to which the Wisconsin instrument could discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists. The results found that only one of the eight variables was significantly related to recidivism. The instruments' total risk score could not discriminate between the recidivist and nonrecidivist groups, bringing into question its validity. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of aftercare management of juvenile offenders.
This study examined the factors associated with success or failure on probation for 2,850 North Carolina felony probationers who were removed from supervision between July 1 and October 31, 1993. Probationers were profiled on various demographic, sentence, and probation characteristics. Chi-square analysis was used to determine differences within various subgroups of the sample, and logistic regression was used to predict failure on probation in two separate models. The findings suggest that risk assessment items used by probation officers to determine level of supervision for probationers perform well in a logistic regression equation.
Compared to male offenders, female offenders have received little empirical attention. This is particularly true in the area of offender risk assessment. Numerous objective risk scales have been developed and used for males, but very few for women. Two studies were conducted to investigate the predictors of female recidivism. The first study attempted to validate a risk scale developed on a male offender population and found poor generalizability. The second study explored additional possible predictors including victimization experiences. Once again, little progress was made. The implications for future research on female offender risk prediction and prison programming are discussed.
Statistics such as the Pearson’s r and Receiver Operating Characteristics are often used to test the generalization of criminal and violence prediction instruments. However, these analyses overlook potential error in the assessment of risk if the rates of offending within the initial validation samples are assumed accurate for other samples. This study examined the generalizability of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide probability bins in a predominantly violent correctional sample. The findings showed that the initial bin probabilities were not transferable to our sample of predominantly violent male offenders. An empirical method of optimal binning was introduced. The discussion centered on the accurate use of bin probabilities in the communication of risk.
Presently halfway houses are not being fully utilized; this may be partly due to the unclear guidelines regarding residential placement. The reported research tested the validity of a classification instrument, the Level of Supervision Inventory (LSI), with incarcerated offenders placed into halfway houses. The LSI yielded impressive predictions of both inprogram and postprogram recidivism, it demonstrated acceptable internal reliability, and the instrument showed convergent validity. Furthermore, the LSI provided not only an assessment of risk but it also identified the needs of offenders that can be used to select treatment goals and evaluate intervention programs.
Examined the offender classification system developed by E. I. Megargee and M. J. Bohn (1979), which is based on Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) typology, and a level of supervision inventory (LSI) to determine their relative efficacy in identifying 134 male incarcerated offenders (aged 16–57 yrs) from a maximum-security setting. Classifications by the 2 systems were compared with respect to incremental validity and predictive accuracy for (1) halfway house outcome (HHO) and (2) postprogram incarceration. Analyses revealed no significant differences with respect to HHO and reincarceration between low- and high-risk Ss as classified by the MMPI. Significant differences were found between low- and high-risk Ss classified by the LSI system. Additional analyses revealed that only a small proportion of the variance in HHO could be accounted for by the Megargee MMPI-based system when delineating "predator" and "nonpredator" offender types. (25 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Faced with prison overcrowding, institutions must seek alternatives to imprisonment. An under researched possibility is the use of halfway houses for the placement of offenders serving prison sentences. The LSI, an objective risk classification instrument, was administered to inmates from three jails. Low-scoring inmates from two of the jails were flagged for placement in correctional halfway houses, and the third jail was blind to LSI scores. The halfway house placement rate was 51 % for the jails that used LSI scores and 16% for the jail using traditional subjective classification procedures. The results suggest that subjective offender assessments run the risk of over classifying offenders whereas objective risk assessments yield more appropriate classifications.
Efforts to reduce prison overcrowding have emphasized the use of resources external to the prison system (e.g., diversion and accelerated release programs). Rarely examined are possible changes that can be made within the prison system. Overcrowding tends to occur in higher security settings, and objective inmate classification may provide one method for achieving a more equitable distribution of inmates among the different prison security levels. One such classification instrument used in Ontario is the Level of Supervision Inventory (LSI). Past research with the LSI has focused upon the assessment of offenders for community supervision, and the LSI's utility for inmate security classification has not been evaluated. In the present study, the LSI was administered to inmates, and their institutional behavior and security classifications were monitored. LSI scores and prison disciplinary data formed the basis for developing a model to assess and estimate security needs objectively. The results not only extended the generalizability of the LSI to inmate classification but also suggested that its use can reduce security overclassifications by about 38 percent. Together with previous LSI research, the present study supports the validity of one offender-risk instrument serving a wide range of classification functions.
In an attempt to determine how certain demographic, employment, prior criminal history, and probation sentence variables are associated with probation outcome, this study investigated probation terminations of 266 felony adult probationers in Tennessee whose cases had been terminated between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 1989 by completion of probation, revocation, or absconding. Probation outcome, the dependent variable, was measured as success or failure. Hypotheses predicting significant relationships between key variables including race, sex, prior criminal history, marital status, and employment status were tested for statistical significance and strength. Chi square was used to determine the statistical significance. All of the predicted relationships were in the right direction; with the exception of the variables race and age, all of the relationships were statistically significant. Logit regression was used to determine the best predictors of probation outcome. Four models were estimated, with statistically insignificant variables being deleted. The final model contained the variables sex, work status, marital status, prior felonies, and conviction offense, which were statistically significant and cited as the best predictors of probation outcome.
Although the question of what works for general offender populations has received considerable attention within the rehabilitation literature, very little research has examined female offenders. The present investigation examined the principles of effective correctional treatment for female offenders through a meta-analytic review. The results indicated that the clinically relevant and psychologically informed principles of human service, risk, need, and responsivity identified in past meta-analytic reviews were associated with enhanced reductions in reoffending.
This study suggests that the use of traditional statistical models can increase the already difficult task of discriminating between specific criterion populations, e.g., parole successes and parole failures. It would seem valuable for correctional researchers to supplement these standard models and approaches with others that allow for a relaxation of the assumptions of linearity and homoscedasticity, in particular. This should make it possible to uncover relationships, between independent and dependent variables, that might otherwise remain obscured. The potential value of this more flexible approach is seen in the present study-one which suggests that psychological characteristics of selected offenders may account for considerably more variance, in measures of parole perform ance, than has been reported to date.
This study compared the predictive validity of multiple indices of violence risk among 188 general population criminal offenders: Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) Violence Risk Assessment Scheme, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), Violent Offender Risk Assessment Scale (VORAS), Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), and Screening Version (PCL:SV). Several indices were related to violent recidivism with large statistical effect sizes: HCR-20 (Total, Clinical and Risk Management scales, structured risk judgments), VRAG, and behavioral scales of psychopathy measures. Multivariate analyses showed that HCR-20 indices were consistently related to violence and that the VRAG entered some analyses. Findings are inconsistent with a position of strict actuarial superiority, as HCR-20 structured risk judgments—an index of structured professional or clinical judgment—were as strongly related to violence.
Twenty-seven individual pairs of effect sizes from 22 prospective studies employing one or more of the following five risk-appraisal procedures: Historical-Clinical-Risk Scales (HCR–20), Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form (LCSF), Level of Service-Inventory (LSI), Psychopathy Checklist (PCL), Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), and one or more self-report measures were subjected to meta-analysis. Although risk-appraisal procedures displayed an advantage over self-report measures in recidivism prediction, the two methods produced comparable results when the meta-analysis was restricted to investigations using content-relevant self-report predictors. Incremental validity analysis of 72 risk-appraisal/self-report contrasts revealed that bothsets of measures accounted for criminal justice outcomes beyond the variance attributable to the alternate method.
The goal of the present research was to examine the effectiveness of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) in predicting release outcome as compared to other well-established risk prediction measures. The SAQ is a self-report measure designed to predict offenders' postrelease out-come. The SAQ was administered along with four similar, but clinician-administered, measures to 68 federally sentenced Canadian male offenders prior to their release into the community. Data were collected for a 2-year follow-up period at six 4-month intervals. Outcome criteria measures were general recidivism, violent recidivism, and any failure (a composite measure recording failure on any of the following variables: negative parole reports, violation of parole conditions, incurring new charges, or a new conviction). Although the SAQ was the most economical of the comparable tools, results demonstrated that it was at least as effective as the four other measures in predicting postrelease outcome.
The Level of Supervision Inventory (LSI), an objective risk evaluation instrument based on social learning theory, was administered to 526 provincially incarcerated adult females. The average LSI score was 15.5, compared to average scores ranging from 20.9 to 25.1 for samples of provincially incarcerated adult males from the same jurisdiction. Data on three outcome measures were collected over a 39-month period. Use of LSI scores for prediction produced relative improvement over chance scores for 1-and 2year recidivism, parole failure, and halfway house noncompliance ranging from 54.5% to 71.5%. Across all types of discharge, offenders defined by the LSI as high risk were consistently more likely to fail on release than were low-risk offenders. Recommended cutoff scores for low- and high-risk female offenders are given, and the implications for classification and rehabilitation are explored.
This article describes a study that examines the utility of separate risk assessment instruments for classifying male and female delinquents on probation. It addresses these questions: (a) Do separate instruments classify juveniles' risks for reoffending better than a combined instrument? and (b) Do risk factors differ for female and male reoffenders? These issues are explored using data gathered from a large metropolitan juvenile court. The findings indicate that separate risk assessment instruments improve classifications of risk for reoffending, especially among females. Furthermore, female risk factors differ substantially from those of their male counterparts. Implications are discussed for applied and theoretical research.
The Level of Supervision Inventory (LSI) is a quantitative risk/need assessment instrument used to identify an offender's risk of committing criminal behavior and need for clinical services. The present study examined the LSI's utility among Canadian male federal offenders. The LSI was administered to 161 inmates during a structured interview and was verified through a review of case file information. The LSI possessed acceptable psychometric properties and demonstrated convergent validity with measures of relevant criminogenic constructs. Also, violent and nonviolent offenders differed on LSI total score and several LSI subtotals. Discussion focuses on treatment implications and areas for future research.
We examined probation outcomes in a sample of more than 2,400 discharged adult probationers in Illinois. We grouped predictor variables into three major categories (probationer characteristics, offense type, and sentence characteristics), and studied three different probation outcomes (rearrest, technical violations, and revocations). Logistic regression analyses showed that different predictors were related to different outcomes and replicated many of the results of previous research. Age, income, prior adult convictions, histories of drug abuse and dependence, and supervision setting were significant predictors of all three outcomes. Race, education, conviction offense, offense class, and sentence length predicted some of the outcomes, but not all three.
The research reported was undertaken to develop a risk assessment instrument (RAI) that would inform case decisions about community corrections placements in Pennsylvania. Against the backdrop of this applied research project, the article examines issues related to external validity that often are neglected or glossed over in social science research. As part of this examination, the basic results of the research study are reported and specific issues related to sampling bias are addressed. Data are presented that reflect real impact of such problems. In the concluding discussion it is argued that the experiences in this project reinforce the need to be rigorous about sampling, and also the need to recognize and value different ways of knowing.
A meta-analysis was conducted to identify risk factors that best predict juvenile recidivism, defined as rearrest for offending of any kind. Twenty-three published studies, representing 15,265 juveniles, met inclusion criteria. Effect sizes were calculated for 30 predictors of recidivism. Eight groups of predictors were compared: (a) demographic information, (b) offense history, (c) family and social factors, (d) educational factors, (e) intellectual and achievement scores, (f) substance use history, (g) clinical factors, and (h) formal risk assessment. The domain of offense history was the strongest predictor of reoffending. Other relatively strong predictors included family problems, ineffective use of leisure time, delinquent peers, conduct problems, and nonsevere pathology.
The validity of a newly developed probation risk and need assessment instrument, the Ministry Risk/Need Assessment Form (MRNAF), was evaluated in a medium-sized Canadian city over-represented by Native Canadians. In the present study, 263 young offenders were assessed on the MRNAF. At 6 months, 250 youths were followed-up to determine if they had offended subsequent to their initial assessment. Results indicated that the total risk/need score and all of the eight risk/need factors could discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists. Moreover, despite some differences between Native and non-Native youths and between male and female youths, the ethnicity and sex of young offenders were inconsequential with regards to the instrument's prediction of recidivism. Therefore, the findings support MRNAF as a robust risk/need assessment instrument to ethnicity and sex.
This study of 244 adolescents, aged ten to seventeen years, was designed to examine the predictors of number of days persons survived in the community without being returned to the Arkansas Division of Youth Services. as well as of whether or not they returned. Unstandardized regression (OLS) coefficients indicate that persons remain in the community 41.3 fewer days with each additional prior commitment, and males remain in the community 29.1 fewer days than do females. Moreover, these two predictors together account for 19 percent of the variance in number of days survived in the community. Logistic regression of significant predictors indicate that the odds of return to DYS are increased 13.5 by prior commitments, 3.35 by carrying a weapon, 2.38 for those neglected or abused by parents, 2.27 for those with peers present at the time of their committing offense, 2.03 for gang members, 1.75 for males (versus females), 1.68 for those whose mother abuses substances, 1.63 for those with poor parental relationships, 1.41 for those who are not residing in a home with two parents, and 1.40 for persons of color (versus white youth). Implications of the findings for intervention are discussed.
One month after their release from incarceration, 224 drug abuser parolees assigned to routine parole procedures enhanced by weekly drug abuse counseling and urine monitoring were administered the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) to determine the ability of the ASI to predict substance abuse treatment outcome during the first year of parole in terms of: (1) participation in treatment; (2) the occurrence of major infractions; (3) drug use; and (4) employment. Results revealed the prominence of two problem areas, Employment and Drug Use, in the predicting of outcome. Parolees with no initially identifiable problems in these areas were more likely to experience favorable outcome at the end of the year.
Explored factors associated with juvenile court dispositions. The data were collected from a sample of 338 adolescent boys and girls who were supervised by juvenile probation officers within a large urban region. The analyses of variables associated with custody decisions were based on data regarding the young person's current and prior offenses, prior institutionalizations, and a broad range of individual and situational variables. Results indicate that referrals to custody related largely to severity of the current offense and history of incarceration. However, the individual and situational variables were also significantly related to the dispositions even when controls were introduced for the legally relevant variables. Results are discussed in terms of legal guidelines regarding the incarceration of young people and of treatment and assessment issues.
Much criminological research has dealt with the topic of parole recidivism and the use of prediction devices in correctional settings. It has been suggested that potential predictor candidates need to be tested in different jurisdictions to assess their applicability in various locations. This study examines the relationship between a number of independent variables and parole outcome using a sample of 350 Kansas inmates released on parole between March and September 1979. Parole outcome was determined using a two-year follow-up from the date of parole hearing. Data on independent variables were obtained from a prediction instrument on the research sample completed by the Kansas Adult Authority, as well as information from the Offender Based Statistical Computer Information System (OBSCIS) used in Kansas. Discriminant analysis is utilized to derive discriminant functions which optimally separate those who succeed or fail on parole in terms of the predictor variables. Both practical and theoretical implications are discussed.
In the past decade there has been a 132% increase in the number of women being supervised on parole. Nearly all of what is known about recidivism comes from research on male offenders, which may not accurately nor adequately explain the post-prison experiences of females that lead to re-incarceration. This study reports findings from interviews with 38 women who had served multiple prison sentences. Findings from these interviews illustrate the role that drug relapse, inadequate employment, and relationships with children and other family members play in the post-prison adjustment of female recidivists. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
The primary focus of this book is on criminal violence of both mentally disordered and criminal inmates, whose histories of criminal violence raise serious societal concerns about the commission of future acts of violence. It is difficult for legal experts, psychologists, and policy makers to make decisions that strike the proper balance between an offender's civil liberties and community safety. Such a balance requires an accurate assessment of the likelihood that an individual offender will commit a new violent or sexual offense. On the basis of their research on mentally disordered offenders, sex offenders, fire setters, and psychopathic offenders, the authors have devised an actuarial assessment instrument, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide. The authors argue that risk management can be improved by combining what is already known about predicting violence, clinical decision making, and program evaluation. They conclude that the results of their applied research have implications for our understanding of the etiology of violent criminal behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
A probation risk-assessment instrument developed by the State of Wisconsin is receiving wide use throughout the nation and has been recognized by the National Institute of Corrections as part of a “model system.” However, this has been done without extensive validation on populations other than Wisconsin probationers and parolees. The validity of the instrument for a population of City of New York probationers is assessed in this study. It was found that many of the variables contained in the instrument did not predict risk for the sample. On this basis. the validation of risk instruments before they are fully adopted is recommended. In addition, based on an analysis of split halves of our sample, the general weakness of statistically derived models is noted.
Meta-analytic techniques were used to determine which predictor domains and actuarial assessment instruments were the best predictors of adult offender recidivism. One hundred and thirty-one studies produced 1,141 correlations with recidivism. The strongest predictor domains were criminogenic needs, criminal history/history of antisocial behavior, social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors. Less robust predictors included intellectual functioning, personal distress factors, and socioeconomic status in the family of origin. Dynamic predictor domains performed at least as well as the static domains. The LSI-R was identified as the most useful actuarial measure. Recommendations for developing sound assessment practices in corrections are provided.
This paper considers the interaction between place of residence and maternal characteristics for infant health outcomes. It illustrates how indices of performance specified in terms of the varying incidence of adverse events or the effect of maternal risk on such outcomes may be sensitive to sampling unreliability, and how this may be clarified in a Bayesian analysis. An adjust-ment for sampling errors, together with a correction for the interplay of various risk factors and the effect of area deprivation, may consider ably modify impressions of relative performance gained from comparing simple perinatal mortality rates
The criminal courts in England and Wales may request the probation service to submit pre-sentence reports which are considered by magistrates and judges before making their sentencing decision. Pre-sentence reports must include an assessment of the risk of reoffending and the risk of harm to the public which the convicted offender presents. The offender group reconviction scale is a statistical aid to such risk assessment. We describe the scale and the statistical analysis on which it is based, and we discuss some statistical aspects of its interpretation and use.
Identification of small subgroups of high-risk juvenile offenders from the general population to target them for intervention
has proved elusive. It is argued that second-time delinquents represent a group that can be efficiently screened for chronic
offenders. With a sample of 298 second-time juvenile offenders, both prospective and retrospective risk instruments are found
to predict chronic delinquent behavior well. It is proposed that such risk instruments be used to focus benign intervention
on high-risk, second-time juvenile offenders.
The Level of Supervision Inventory (LSI) has garnered attention as a useful correctional classification and prediction instrument in Canadian settings, and has also been used in the U.S. The predictive utility of the LSI was tested on a sample of male community corrections clients in Fort Collins, Colorado using halfway house program completion, recidivism on any crime, and felony recidivism as outcome variables. Bivariate correlations, Relative Improvement Over Chance (RIOC) analysis, and logistic regression were used to analyze the data. The findings raise questions regarding the predictive value of the LSI on this population.
The majority of large urban probation departments employ risk-assessment instruments to classify offenders to determine strategy of supervision. Many of these programs have adopted devices used by other jurisdictions. Some scholars, however, seriously question the universal applicability of risk-assessment instruments. The present study utilizes Survival Time Analysis to validate or test the transferability of the Georgia risk scale for a population of Houston, Texas probationers. The findings showed that after nearly 4 years at risk, the Georgia model failed to identify high-risk felony probationers but differentiated among misdemeanor risk groups. The report discusses the policy implications of these results on developing local classification procedures.
The study explored a set of potential risk and protective factors in relation to criminal activity and adjustment with a group of delinquent youths. The results indicated, first, that risk variables reflecting family relationship and parenting problems were associated with heightened rates of re-offending and lower overall adjustment. Second, the presence of protective factors relating to positive peer relations, good school achievement, positive response to authority and effective use of leisure time was associated with more positive outcomes with controls for the risk variables. Third, there was no evidence of interaction between risk and protective factors; the latter operated similarly at low and high levels of risk. These results are discussed in terms of their theoretical and applied significance.
The research reported was undertaken to develop a risk assessment instrument (RAI) that would inform case decisions about community corrections placements in Pennsylvania. Against the backdrop of this applied research project, the article examines issues related to external validity that often are neglected or glossed over in social science research. As part of this examination, the basic results of the research study are reported and specific issues related to sampling bias are addressed. Data are presented that reflect real impact of such problems. In the concluding discussion it is argued that the experiences in this project reinforce the need to be rigorous about sampling, and also the need to recognize and value different ways of knowing.
A study of offenders under intensive community supervision
- B L Kirkpatrick
Kirkpatrick, B. L. (1998). A study of offenders under intensive community
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A test of the Northpointe COMPAS risk assessment on New Jersey parolee offenders
- T Brennan
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Brennan, T., & Wells, D. (1997). A test of the Northpointe COMPAS risk assessment on New Jersey parolee offenders. Traverse City, MI: Northpointe
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Predictors of recidivism in serious female offenders - Canada searches for predictors common to both men and women
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Identifying absconders from parole and probation supervision: An evaluation of Nevada's risk screening instruments
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Francisco: National Council on Crime and Delinquency.
Screening for risk among parolees: Policy, practice, and method
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- D M Gottfredson
Gottfredson, S. D., & Gottfredson, D. M. (1985). Screening for risk among parolees: Policy, practice, and method. In D. Farrington & R. Tarling (Eds.), Prediction in criminology (Ch. 3). New York: State University of New York Press.