No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Implications for Teacher Supply and Methodological Lessons for Research
Abstract
Attempts to determine whether enough qualified teachers will be available to staff the nation's schools in the coming years have been hampered by methodological difficulties that are inherent in the study of teacher career patterns. In this article, we have applied an analytic technique rarely used in educational research, proportional hazards modeling, to resolve these problems and to investigate the relationship between teachers' background characteristics and their career durations. We find that teacher demographic characteristics and subject specialty are important predictors of length of stay in teaching. Our results call into question several assumptions about teacher career persistence implicit in the national teacher supply and demand model. We also argue that proportional hazards modeling has wide applicability to many educational research questions.
... Stinebrickner's (2001) findings confirm that many individuals who left teaching in the U.S. during the 1970s and early 1980s left the workforce altogether, with females more likely to have stopped working than males. It seems hardly surprising then that a significant percentage – roughly one-quarter to onethird based on available evidence – of those who leave teaching early in their careers eventually return (Beaudin, 1993;DeAngelis & Presley, 2011;Grissmer & Kirby, 1992;Kirby et al., 1991;Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1988;Singer, 1993;Stinebrickner, 2002). Returning teachers (also referred to as reentrants) can constitute a substantial share of newly hired teachers in schools each year. ...
... Despite their potentially important contributions to teacher supply and to individual schools, little is known about returning teachers, the factors associated with their decisions to return, or the schools to which they return. The few studies that have been conducted on this topic are based on teacher cohorts dating back to the 1970s and early 1980s (Beaudin, 1993Beaudin, , 1995Heyns, 1988;Murnane et al., 1988;Murnane, Singer, Willett, Kemple, & Olsen, 1991;Singer, 1993). Those studies with one exception concentrated on the influence of former teachers' personal characteristics on their decisions to return. ...
... Using North Carolina teachers' scores on the National Teacher Examination,Murnane et al.'s (1991)results suggested that the loss of academic talent extends to the reentry point as well; significantly fewer of the highest-scoring teachers in their sample returned to the profession after a year or more break in service compared to their lowerscoring colleagues.Heyns (1988), in contrast, found that both leavers and returners in her national sample scored somewhat higher on SAT exams than teachers who had not left the profession. One of the most consistent findings within this literature is the vast majority of former teachers who returned did so after only a short absence (Beaudin, 1993;Greene & Lahti, 1984;Grissmer & Kirby, 1992;Murnane et al., 1988Murnane et al., , 1991Singer, 1993).Beaudin (1993)reported that nearly two-thirds of returning teachers in her sample interrupted their careers for just one year, and over 85% for no more than three years. Similarly,Murnane et al. (1988)found the median length of absence among returning teachers was one year. ...
p>Research shows that one-quarter to one-third of teachers who leave the profession return, the majority after only a short absence. Though returning teachers can constitute a substantial share of newly hired teachers in schools each year, little is known about them, the factors associated with their decisions to return, or the schools to which they return. In this study, I use a 20-year longitudinal dataset to examine the characteristics of returning teachers as well as the personal, school, and district factors associated with their return both to the profession and to particular schools. In addition, I consider the extent to which returning teachers contribute to the systematic sorting of teachers across schools. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the loss of teachers to attrition from the profession is more likely to be permanent for smaller schools and districts outside of urban and suburban areas. In addition, both personal and job-related factors impact whether and where former teachers return, albeit differently by gender. Interestingly, personal and pecuniary factors in teaching appear to play a greater role than non-pecuniary factors on male leavers’ decisions regarding whether and where to return, whereas personal, pecuniary, and non-pecuniary factors all influence female leavers’ decisions. Finally, the study demonstrates that returning teachers on average reenter schools that are very similar in terms of student and teacher characteristics to those that they left.
</p
... A significant omission is often the number of educators who return to the profession at a later date. Teaching often provides flexibility for teachers to leave the workforce for a few years and later return, creating a potential pool of candidates (Murnane, Singer & Willett, 1988). In Washington state, the number of re-entering teachers in 2000 is estimated to be at least three percent of the teacher workforce, but incomplete reporting by some districts permits only an estimate (this was prior to the retire-rehire laws, which went into effect in 2001- 02). ...
... New teachers leave the profession at significantly higher rates than experienced teachers (Murnane, Singer & Willett, 1988; Murnane, 1984). Attrition is common at the initial stages in most occupations as individuals learn about the workplace and discover whether or not the job is a good fit. ...
... The rate for the 60 to 64 age category was 30.5 percent " (Whitener, et al., 1997, p.iii). Washington's statistics on retention mirror findings by other researchers (Murnane, Singer & Willett, 1988) regarding a classic curve which characterizes teacher's experience and turnover. In other words, beginning teachers have high rates of departure as well as those commonly recognized as nearing retirement. ...
... How districts choose to report vacancies and the various ways in which schools and districts can choose to fill them also influence how the numbers are reported. A significant omission is often the number of educators who temporarily leave the workforce and later return, creating a potential pool of candidates (Heyns, 1988; Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1988). Only recently has the study of teacher turnover embraced a more comprehensive understanding of mobility. ...
... Although these factors may pose particular challenges, a recent study found that the influence of student demographics on reported turnover and hiring problems may be reduced when factoring in certain positive working conditions (Loeb & DarlingHammond, 2005). Teacher attrition is higher in the early years of teaching when compared with midcareer teachers (Lortie, 1975; Murnane et al., 1988; Shen, 1997). Whereas Ingersoll and Smith (2003) suggested that between 40% and 50% of all beginning teachers leave the profession after 5 years, others have found the exit rates to be considerably lower. ...
... Attrition in the early years of teaching is more troublesome, as it may represent a premature loss of teaching talent. It is well-known that new teachers leave the profession at higher rates than experienced teachers (Lortie, 1975; Murnane, 1984; Murnane et al., 1988). Attrition is common in the initial stages of most occupations as individuals learn about the workplace and discover whether or not the job is a good fit. ...
This article summarizes the results of a 2-part study using both state databases and teacher surveys to examine teacher retention and mobility in Washington's teacher workforce. The first part of the research examined individual teacher records during a 5-year period. Statewide analyses were conducted, and 20 districts were selected for in-depth examination. Data were examined in relation to student demographics, measures of student learning, and poverty level of the school, with special attention given to novice teachers and teachers of color. The second part of the study surveyed a representative sample of teachers regarding their views on factors that influence their decisions to stay or leave their school or school district. Findings suggest that focusing on the nature of teacher mobility within a district is a useful way to examine a number of equity concerns.
... During the last two decades, substantial empirical research has focused on determining which kinds of teachers are more prone to leave teaching and why (e.g., Bobbitt, Leich, Whitener, & Lynch, 1994; Chapman & Green, 1986; Chapman & Hutcheson, 1982;, 1992 Hafner & Owings, 1991; Haggstrom, Darling-Hammond, & Grissmer, 1988; Heyns, 1988; Marso & Pigge, 1991; Miech & Elder, 1996; Murnane, 1981 Murnane, , 1987 Murnane, Singer, Willet, Kemple, & Olsen, 1991; Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1988; Rumberger, 1987; Schlechty & Vance, 1981 Weiss & Boyd, 1990). This research shows that teacher turnover is strongly correlated with the individual characteristics of teachers. ...
... Although there is some disagreement as to why this is the case, researchers have consistently found that younger teachers have very high rates of departure. Subsequently, as those remaining " settle in, " turnover rates decline through the mid-career period and, finally, rise again in the retirement years (e.g., Bobbitt, Leich, Whitener, & Lynch, 1994; Boe, Bobbitt, Cook, Barkanic, & Mailsin, 1998;, 1992 Hafner & Owings, 1991; Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1988 ). Moreover , because the distribution of age in the teaching force is skewed upward—older teachers significantly outnumber younger teachers—many analysts have concluded that retirement due to a rapidly " graying " teaching workforce is the most significant factor behind teacher turnover, teacher shortages, and school staffing problems (e.g., Grissmer & Kirby, 1997). ...
... to problems staffing schools with qualified teachers and, in turn, lower educational performance (e.g., National Commission on Excellence in Education , 1983; National Commission on Teaching, 1997 ). Concern over shortages has given impetus to empirical analysis, much of it focused on teacher turnover (e.g.,, 1992 Heyns, 1988; Murnane, 1981 Murnane, , 1987 Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1988). This analysis attempts to build on these bodies of theory and research by examining teacher turnover and, in turn, school staffing problems from an organizational perspective. ...
Contemporary educational theory holds that one of the pivotal causes of inadequate school performance is the inability of schools to adequately staff classrooms with qualified teachers. This theory also holds that these school staffing problems are primarily due to shortages of teachers, which, in turn, are primarily due to recent increases in teacher retirements and student enrollments. This analysis investigates the possibility that there are other factors—those tied to the organizational characteristics and conditions of schools—that are driving teacher turnover and, in turn, school staffing problems. The data utilized in this investigation are from the Schools and Staffing Survey and its supplement, the Teacher Followup Survey conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics. The results of the analysis indicate that school staffing problems are not primarily due to teacher shortages, in the technical sense of an insufficient supply of qualified teachers. Rather, the data indicate that school staffing problems are primarily due to excess demand resulting from a "revolving door"—where large numbers of qualified teachers depart their jobs for reasons other than retirement. Moreover, the data show that the amount of turnover accounted for by retirement is relatively minor when compared to that associated with other factors, such as teacher job dissatisfaction and teachers pursuing other jobs. The article concludes that popular education initiatives, such as teacher recruitment programs, will not solve the staffing problems of such schools if they do not also address the organizational sources of low teacher retention.
... Other studies have supported a positive relationship of ability with turnover. For instance,Murnane et al. (1988Murnane et al. ( , 1989) reported higher turnover rates among teachers who had obtained a high score on the National Teacher Exam (NTE), a test correlated with individual differences in cognitive ability. Employees with higher cognitive ability will be at a higher risk for voluntary turnover than employees with lower cognitive ability. ...
... Although event history methods have been used in psychology, sociology, and other sciences since the 1970s (Allison, 1984), the methods have not appeared in the organizational literature until relatively recently (seeFichman, 1988;Harrison & Hulin, 1989;Morita et al., 1989Morita et al., , 1993Ng, Cram, & Jenkins, 1991;Schmittlein & Morrison, 1983). There are only a handful of published studies of turnover in applied psychology that have employed event history methods (seeJudge &Watanabe, 1995;Morita etal., 1989Morita etal., , 1993Murnane, Singer, &Willett, 1988Ng etal., 1991;Schmittlein & Morrison, 1983). The specific form of event history analysis used for the present article was Cox regression (Cox, 1972). ...
In the present study, the authors examined the importance of time in the voluntary turnover process. The researchers used a representative sample of early-career individuals in the American workforce. Moderating effects of time were found for both job satisfaction and cognitive ability. The relationships of these predictors with turnover decreased as a function of time. The temporal nature of effects inherent in the voluntary turnover process is discussed in detail, and the importance of considering changing effects across time is emphasized. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
... The direct perspective is the most frequent in the study of mobility, in which there are, in turn, two tendencies in its operationalization: on the one hand, those who measure turnover or abandonment in a short-term manner, and on the other, those who measure it longitudinally or in the long term. These two identified tendencies are consistent with the research designs identified by Murnane, Singer, and Willet [243] and those of Holme, Jabbar, Germain, and Dinning [244], given that they coincide in recognizing that there are two ways of studying teacher mobility according to the temporality that is analyzed. This latter consideration is highly relevant since how teacher mobility is operationalized conditions what factors are considered relevant. ...
Teacher mobility represents a serious problem due to the instability of the teaching force that has persisted over time in many countries. Therefore, retaining qualified teachers represents a challenge given the difficulty of having the necessary workforce to face the educational challenges of each year. Our objective was trying to identify how mobility is understood and measured, that is, teacher turnover and attrition, and to identify the results of the related factors according to the different perspectives. The PRISMA-Scr protocol was used, which establishes the information that should be included in a systematic review. The following key phrases were used: “teacher rotation” or “teacher mobility” or “teacher desertion” or teacher leavers or teacher stayers. The databases used were Web of Science, Scielo Citation Index and Google Scholar, which yielded an initial total of 760 documents published between 2008 and 2018, that after identification, screening, eligibility, and inclusion processes, were reduced to 213. The selection of articles was carried out independently by two researchers using a structured and recursive hierarchical strategy. The existence of multiple ways of defining and measuring teacher mobility was identified and a definition based on two perspectives was proposed that summarizes the conceptual and operational findings, which are indirect and direct mobility. The first refers to the intention to leave and the second to leave. We have identified more evidence related to direct studies of a quantitative approach and focused on teachers with medium or short experience. The factors associated with mobility were identified based on the approaches used and a key element was identified when distinguishing teacher mobility, which is voluntary and involuntary mobility. We identified multiple factors associated with teacher mobility, among which the precarious working environment, poor organizational conditions such as lack of leadership and support among colleagues, excessive workload and low self-efficacy stand out. The limitations of this study are discussed. The findings of this study are highly relevant since they allow proposing medium or short-term policies, such as improving the organizational conditions of the school to promote the retention of the teaching workforce.
... Again, there is a need to jointly address questions of "whether" and "when" teachers leave schools, for truly understanding the process of turnover over the timescale of a teacher's career. Teacher turnover is a longitudinal process with time variant and invariant covariates (Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1988;Singer & Willett, 1993;Willett & Singer, 1989 There are at least three other factors related to teacher turnover rates that relate to much broader societal issues, which should be considered when planning future studies. First, population growth (or lack thereof) is related to the number of student enrolments and consequently teachers' job demand. ...
School climate is a crucial concept used to explain school differences. Nevertheless, this concept is elusive in the literature, conveying different meanings. To address the relation between school climate and school outcomes, its historical roots are reviewed and a multivariate approach to it is proposed, in contrast to a unidimensional conception. In four papers, this strategy is used to study associations among various school climate factors (SCFs) and school outcomes, including teacher turnover, teacher job satisfaction, students’ math achievement, and students’ social attitudes. In paper 1, schools serving more socioeconomically disadvantaged students are found to present higher rates of teacher turnover. A complementary study shows that SCFs (supportive school leadership, positive school relationships, and academic monitoring) present differing effects on teacher turnover. In paper 2, the relationships between SCFs (teacher student relations and school discipline) and teachers’ job satisfaction and withdrawal cognitions (intentions to quit) are estimated. These SCFs appear to play a protective role with respect to teachers’ withdrawal cognitions, and these effects are indirect via their relationship to teachers’ job satisfaction. In paper 3, the relationship between the experience of bullying and students’ achievement is addressed. The relationship is found to be indirect, with key roles played by perceptions of school belonging and students’ classroom engagement. Finally, in paper 4 the relationship between civic knowledge and the endorsement of democratic values is estimated. This link is found to be partially mediated by ideological beliefs (authoritarianism), and the role of open classroom discussion (a SCF) as a moderator of these effects is demonstrated. This work demonstrates that in order to specify theory-driven models of different school outcomes, school climate should be conceptualized as diverse social-contextual effects operating in a complex multivariate setting with mediated and moderated pathways to outcomes.
http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/61527/
... fifth year (Bobbitt, Faulpel & Burns, 1991;Borman & Dowling, 2008;Brenneman, 2015;Ingersoll, 2002;Ingersoll, Merrill, & Stuckey, 2014;Long, 2015), seventh year (Hewitt, 1993), and tenth year (Arnold, Choy, & Bobbitt, 1993). Conclusively, attrition research denotes a U-shaped curve that illustrates when in age teachers depart (Bobbitt, Leich, Whitener, & Lynch, 1994;Boe, Bobbitt, Cook, Barkanic & Maislin, 1998;Grissmer & Kirby, 1987Hafner & Owings, 1991;Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1988). If one imagines the letter U, the top of the letter represents high attrition. ...
This qualitative autoethnographic study explores the phenomenon of teacher turnover as it relates to the researcher’s specific contexts and personal experiences. Through the acts of journaling, coaching, and narrative writing, teachers can better understand influences of culture on their beliefs, values, attitudes, and decisions – especially in regards to actions of movement from one setting to another. The findings indicate that beliefs, values, attitudes, and decisions are learned through a school’s culture, and they can change depending on perspective. The findings also indicate that there is power in dialogue – even for teachers who never felt they had influence or a voice at all.
... Moreover, further mobility could increase these inequalities (Boyd, Lankford, Loeb, & Wyckoff, 2005). This, because teachers with higher academic abilities have a higher probability of moving from a school over represented with low-income students, and also leaving the teaching career altogether (Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1988;Murnane & Olsen, 1990). ...
Teachers' first employment is key to explain their final distribution in the system. Through a mixed-method approach we study the factors that are related to the first job for teachers in Chile in schools with different regimes. Specifically, we consider teacher's socio-demographic and initial training-related characteristics, the application and hiring processes, and job characteristics. We find that teachers with a higher social capital are less likely to start teaching in public schools, and that participation in field experience during their initial training in a public school, increases the probability to teach in those contexts.
... Despite the current economic crisis, retention continues to be a problem in many urban and rural locations and in teaching areas such as science, mathematics, special education, and teaching multilingual learners (Ingersoll & Merrill, 2010 ). Age and experience are key predictors of teacher turnover, with both the youngest and oldest teachers and the least and most experienced teachers most likely to leave (e.g., Hanushek, Kain, & Rivkin, 2004; Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1998). Our focus here is on beginning teachers, who are, by definition, the least experienced and are often among the youngest teachers. ...
Career decisions of four teachers are explored through the concept of figured worlds in this qualitative, longitudinal case study. Participants were purposefully chosen for similarity at entry, with a range of career trajectories over time. Teacher career paths included remaining in one school, repeated changes in schools, attrition after relocation, and non-renewal of contract. Data included interviews, observations, participants’ assessments, and pupils’ work. Cross-case analysis suggests that no single teacher attribute or workplace condition determined teachers’ career decisions; rather, teachers’ ability to refigure their identity within the figured world of teaching shaped career trajectory. Key factors such as ability to address disequilibrium, teacher identity, agency, and collaborative capacity are examined. Implications call for pre-service preparation and professional development to navigate cultures of schools, amended administrative involvement in teacher retention, and policy reform acknowledging the complexity of teachers’ figured worlds.
... Although survival analysis has its origins in medical research, where the events of interest are typically the deaths of individuals, the method has recently gained popularity in other fields. Two examples from the field of education are an analysis of Ph.D. attainment at Stanford University (Mathematical Methods in Educational Research, 1983) and an analysis of teachers' career patterns in Michigan public schools (Murnane, Singer, & 'Willett, 1988). The goal of survival analysis is estimation of the survival function, Sex), which is the probability that an event will take more than x units of time to occur. ...
The graduate careers of nearly 5,000 Ph.D.‐seeking students from 11 departments in each of three major universities were investigated, with a special focus on minority students. Minorities and women were found to be underrepresented in graduate school and to have generally lower candidacy and graduation rates than their White and male counterparts. In two of the three schools, foreign students had higher candidacy and graduation rates than did White Americans. Also, in two of the three schools, the percentage of foreign students increased substantially in recent years.
A more general finding was that the candidacy and graduation rates in the eight years following matriculation were higher in quantitatively oriented departments than in the humanities and social sciences. In general, undergraduate grades and Graduate Record Examinations scores had only a minimal association with the attainment of candidacy and graduation. Among these academically select students, nonacademic factors may play a crucial role in determining who ultimately attains the doctoral degree.
... Despite the current economic crisis, retention continues to be a problem in many urban and rural locations and in teaching areas such as science, mathematics, special education, and teaching multilingual learners (Ingersoll & Merrill, 2010 ). Age and experience are key predictors of teacher turnover, with both the youngest and oldest teachers and the least and most experienced teachers most likely to leave (e.g., Hanushek, Kain, & Rivkin, 2004; Murnane, Singer, & Willett, 1998). Our focus here is on beginning teachers, who are, by definition, the least experienced and are often among the youngest teachers. ...
Although the turnover rate among beginning teachers has been a major concern for some time, most studies do not link teacher retention with teaching practice. In contrast, this study looks specifically at career decisions coupled with practice. Guided by a view of teaching as social and cultural practice, the study used multiple qualitative data sources, including extensive observations, interviews, and samples of teachers' and students' work. Based on within- and cross-case analysis of 15 cases at four distinct time points within a 5-year period, the authors identified multiple patterns of teaching practice linked to early career decisions, which reflect considerable variation in quality of teaching and career trajectory. The authors argue that "stayers" and "leavers" are not homogeneous groups, as is often assumed in research and policy. Rather, there are multiple variations of practice coupled with career decisions, some desirable and others not, with different implications for policy and practice.
... The knowledge that science teachers have opens additional and alternative occupational opportunities for them, both in the educational system and outside it. Murnane et al. (1988) show that teachers of chemistry and physics in the US are less persistent in teaching due to the availability of alternative job opportunities. In Israel, it was found that teachers' persistence in the profession varies according to their teaching eld, with teachers of Arabic and humanities being the most persistent and teachers of computer studies being the least persistent (Central Bureau of Statistics, 1997). ...
By integrating individual and contextual approaches, the present study examines gender differences in appointment to leadership positions in schools in three different educational sectors in Israel. Based on a sample of 10,733 Israeli high school teachers in two Jewish educational sectors and one Arab educational sector, we performed a set of multinomial logistic regressions. The main findings indicate that gender has an independent influence on the probability of entering various leadership positions in schools, even after controlling for personal characteristics and teaching fields. However, the patterns and the extent of gender inequality differ between the three sectors. The findings are interpreted in accordance with the glass ceiling and the queuing model approaches. We conclude that gender inequality is context bound and should be analyzed from this point of view.
... As noted in the introduction, the literature on the effects of defined benefit plans on the labor market decisions of educators is surprisingly thin, given the amount of funding that is allocated for this purpose and the potential importance of the topic for retirement and employment decisions of educators. Those studies that do investigate the effects of selected factors on the decisions of P-12 teachers to enter or leave the profession typically do not consider retirement benefits (Bradley and Loadman 2005; Elfers, Plecki, and Knapp 2006; Elfers, Plecki, and McGowen 2007; Hanushek, Kain, and Rivkin 2004; Ingersoll 2001 Ingersoll , 2003 Kelly 2004; Luekens, Lyter, and Fox 2004; Murnane 1984; Murnane, Singer, and Willett 1988; Shen 1997; Stinebrickner 1998 Stinebrickner , 2002 Theobald 1990). The dependent variable in these studies usually represents whether a teacher has departed the school/district/state/profession, and independent variables often include the teacher's salary and experience level, characteristics of the students, and characteristics of the school and community—but not pension benefits. ...
Although benefits can be a sizable part of an educator's total compensation, there has been little scholarly inquiry into the state pension plans for educators. Despite the fact that all defined benefit plans rely on the same basic formula for calculating annual pensions, they vary across states in the multiplier used, the method for calculating final average salary, the cost of participating in the plan, whether caps are imposed on first-year benefits, how cost-of-living increases are made, whether benefits are subject to state income taxes, and whether educators can retain Social Security benefits. All of these factors can influence the total pension received by educators. Educators are unlikely to know the net effect of the parameters used in each state's plan on their net benefits and how the net benefits compare across states. This study addresses this aspect of educator compensation by analyzing the differences among state-run defined benefit plans and how these plans can affect the net benefits for educators. The first portion of this article reviews the empirical and theoretical literature on retirement benefits and their effects on the labor market decisions of educators. The second section describes how to calculate the net benefits from state-run defined benefit plans, and how the components of these plans can affect an educator's retirement compensation. Next, data are used on the defined benefit plans for educators in 49 states to estimate the net retirement compensation for educators and demonstrate how the net benefits vary across states. Finally, this article concludes with some suggested implications of changes in pension systems for educators and directions for future research. (Contains 8 tables, 1 figure, and 1 endnote.)
... The results presented thus far support the predictions of the career concerns model; however, I wish to be careful of competing explanations for these behavioral changes. A common debate in the literature on teacher mobility centers on losing the most capable teachers to non-teaching jobs (Donald J. Boyd et al., 2005, Richard J. Murnane et al., 1988 ). This nonrandom attrition from the workforce could potentially bias my estimates to reflect behavioral responses among those teachers who stay, but not among all teachers generally. ...
I present a generalization to the standard career concerns model and apply it to the public teacher labor market. In particular, this model provides three testable hypotheses: optimal teacher effort levels decline with experience all things equal, optimal effort declines with tenure at a particular school, and teachers shirk as incentives collapse at the end of a teacher's career or tenure. Using administrative data from North Carolina spanning 13 school years through 2007, I find significant changes in teacher absenteeism consistent with the generalized career concerns model. These findings are robust to various empirical specifications, showing consistent within-teacher behavioral changes. By exploiting exogenous variation in career concerns in the form of principal turnover, I find results consistent with the model's predictions. I also investigate the effects of career concerns incentives breaking down, and find evidence suggestive of teacher shirking. While the career concerns effect is compounded with a learning curve early in a teacher's career, I find shirking among exiting teachers is significantly predictive of negative outcomes in student testing.
Despite the large literature on teacher labor market in the United States, only few studies have examined the career choices of former teachers and the factors that affect their decisions to return to the profession. This is surprising given that former teachers represent over a third of teachers entering the teaching workforce, according to some estimates. This paper examines the exit and re-entry decisions of former teachers using a restricted-use data from the Beginning Teacher Longitudinal Study (BTLS). We use a discrete time hazard model that estimates the probability that a former teacher returns to teaching in a given year conditional on not having returned in the previous year. Results suggest that female teachers are more likely to return to the teaching profession by somewhere between 10 and 12 percentage points. We also find that teachers who are highly paid are more likely to re-enter teaching.
One out of five entering public school teachers leave the field
within the first four years. Despite that the presence of a newborn child is the
single most important determinant of exits of female teachers, retention policy
recommendations rely on models that take children as predetermined. This
article formulates and estimates a structural dynamic model that explicitly
addresses the interdependence between fertility and labor force participation
choices. The model with unobserved heterogeneity in preferences for children
fits the data and produces reasonable forecasts of labor force attachment to
the teaching sector. Structural estimates of the model are used to predict
the effects that wage increases and reductions in the cost of childcare would
have on female teachers' employment and fertility choices. The estimates un-
pack important features of the interdependence of fertility and labor supply
and contradict previous studies that did not consider the endogeneity between
these two choices.
This research examines the career paths of 2,700 former special educators to see whether they returned to the public schools; the results are based on longitudinal data (13 years) on all special educators in Michigan public schools hired between 1972 and 1985. Analyses focus on teachers' decisions as they faced two key turning points—whether to reenter the schools, and if so, how long to stay during this second spell. An estimated 34% of the former Michigan special educators reentered a Michigan classroom within 5 years of leaving, and an estimated 58% of these stayed for more than 7 years. I conclude that a return to teaching after a brief interruption may be a common career path, and the pool of former special educators is a viable source of teacher supply.
Teaching, as a profession, has changed considerably in the last several decades. Moreover, by policy design, the profession is likely to undergo even more extensive changes during the next decade. Educational reform has become centered on the teaching force, rather than the schools; accountability, examinations for certification and recertification, and salary incentives are among the most frequently mentioned proposals to enhance the quality and quantity of teachers. Moreover, dramatic increases in educational policy activity by the states have created an altered environment for teachers. States have mandated changes in the standards and legal requirements for graduation and instituted minimum competency tests, causing modifications in both the curriculum and teacher recruitment and staffing patterns. States require exams for certification and recertification, while grappling with career ladders and increased salaries for teaching. Finally, the emphasis on increasing professionalism and enhancing the status of teachers is likely to create change in the profession.
The Fessler and Christensen (1992) teacher career cycle model provides the theoretical framework for this case study incorporating a narrative design nested within a larger research project examining six teachers' journey across the career cycle (Woods & Earls, 1995; Woods & Lynn, 2001). The current case study sought to gain a greater understanding of why one teacher, Patsy, was unable to negotiate environmental hurdles that are commonplace in physical education and how these factors were being negotiated as a classroom teacher. Data sources included: seven interviews with the participant, multiple interviews with her principals, spouse, and three former university teacher educators, field notes from live lesson observations, and related documents. An interpretative framework was used to understand the perceptions and meanings Patsy gave to her experiences and revealed that she reported being both positively and negatively affected by most of the personal and organizational environmental factors in the teacher career cycle model. Viewing Patsy's teaching career through the lens of the career cycle provides insight into areas of change necessary to motivate and retain quality physical education teachers.
Background
In principle, value-added modeling (VAM) might be justified if it can be shown to be a more reliable indicator of teacher quality than existing indicators for existing low-stakes decisions that are already being made, such as the award of small merit bonuses. However, a growing number of researchers now advocate the use of VAM to identify and replace large numbers of low-performing teachers. There is a need to evaluate these proposals because the active termination of large numbers of teachers based on VAM requires a much higher standard of reliability and validity. Furthermore, these proposals must be evaluated to determine if they are cost-effective compared to alternative proposals for raising student achievement. While VAM might be justified as a replacement for existing indicators (for existing decisions regarding merit compensation), it might not meet the higher standard of reliability and validity required for large-scale teacher termination, and it may not be the most cost-effective approach for raising student achievement. If society devotes its resources to approaches that are not cost-effective, the increase in achievement per dollar of resources expended will remain low, inhibiting reduction of the achievement gap.
Objective
This article reviews literature regarding the reliability and validity of VAM, then focuses on an evaluation of a proposal by Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff to use VAM to identify and replace the lowest-performing 5% of teachers with average teachers. Chetty et al. estimate that implementation of this proposal would increase the achievement and lifetime earnings of students. The results appear likely to accelerate the adoption of VAM by school districts nationwide. The objective of the current article is to evaluate the Chetty et al. proposal and the strategy of raising student achievement by using VAM to identify and replace low-performing teachers.
Method
This article analyzes the assumptions of the Chetty et al. study and the assumptions of similar VAM-based proposals to raise student achievement. This analysis establishes a basis for evaluating the Chetty et al. proposal and, in general, a basis for evaluating all VAM-based policies to raise achievement.
Conclusion
VAM is not reliable or valid, and VAM-based polices are not cost-effective for the purpose of raising student achievement and increasing earnings by terminating large numbers of low-performing teachers.
A statistical methodology relatively new to education—survival analysis—is used to describe the career paths of over 6,600 special education teachers newly hired in Michigan and North Carolina between 1972 and 1983, following them for up to 13 years, or until they stopped teaching in the state. Beginning special educators in both states continue to teach for an average of 7 years. They are most likely to leave teaching during the first few years after hire; those who survive this initial “hazardous” period typically teach for many years to come. Young women are particularly likely to leave, as are those special educators who provide support services or teach students with speech, hearing, or vision disabilities. Teachers with high test scores are at greater risk of leaving as are teachers paid comparatively low salaries.
Using maximum likelihood logistic regression analysis, this study of public school teachers identifies the characteristics that distinguish teachers who return to the classroom after a career interruption from those who do not. Its purpose is to improve our ability to monitor and predict teacher supply and demand by determining areas that may be vulnerable to shortages in the future. The findings show that the teachers most likely to return are those with subject area specialties that provide limited opportunities for better paying employment outside of public schools, those who have more than 2 years of experience coupled with a master's degree, and those who interrupted their careers at an older rather than a younger age. Although females return in higher proportions than males overall, this appears to be the result of females' greater representation in areas with lower opportunity costs. Therefore, when subject area specialty is held constant, females and males return at approximately the same rates.
COPSSE research is focused on the preparation of special education professionals and its impact on beginning teacher quality and student outcomes. Our research is intended to inform scholars and policymakers about advantages and disadvantages of preparation alternatives and the effective use of public funds in addressing personnel shortages. In addition to our authors and reviewers, many individuals and organizations have contributed substantially to our efforts, including Drs. Erling Boe of the University of Pennsylvania and Elaine Carlson of WESTAT. We also have benefited greatly from collaboration with the National Clearinghouse for the Professions in Special Education, the Policymakers Partnership, and their
The lack of qualified special education teachers threatens the quality of education that students with disabilities receive. Attrition plays a part in the teacher shortage problem, and efforts to improve retention must be informed by an understanding of the factors that contribute to attrition. Specifically, the author provides a thematic analysis of studies investigating factors that contribute to special education teacher attrition and retention. She addresses four major themes: teacher characteristics and personal factors, teacher qualifications, work environments, and teachers' affective reactions to work. Following this thematic review, a critique of definitional, conceptual, and methodological approaches used to study special education attrition is provided, as are priorities for future research.
This paper examines factors which may impact on recruitment and retention of members of the African-American teaching pool. Data were gathered through questionnaires and interviews administered to prospective and beginning teachers (N=41) to determine background characteristics, reasons for entering the teaching profession, experiences in teacher education programs, actual experiences in student teaching and teaching, and how long they intended to stay in the profession. Results suggest that: (1) recruitment strategies should include reasons for pursuing a teaching career, such as the desire to be a role model, the poor conditions affecting minority communities, and an overall commitment to making a difference in the lives of young people; and (2) efforts should be targeted at the grade school, high school, undergraduate and graduate levels, and also at situations where African-Americans may be working in unsatisfactory careers. Retention requires the profession to listen to the ideas and voices of those African-Americans currently teaching with respect to necessary reforms and strategies to recruit other African-Americans into teaching and retain them once they are there. (LL)
We randomly surveyed 1,576 Florida special education teachers to examine factors that contribute to their propensity to leave or stay in the special education classroom or transfer to a new school. The variables identified, based on extensive review of the literature, included background, classroom, school district, and personal factors. We tracked our respondents for 2 years using a multinomial logit model to identify significant predictors of leaving, staying, or transferring. Results indicate that teachers left special education teaching primarily due to insufficient certification, perceptions of high stress, and perceptions of poor school climate. Special educators who transferred to a different school or district had perceptions of high stress and perceptions of poor school climate and were significantly younger than stayers.
Science teacher retention, attrition, and migration continue to perplex educational scholars, political entities, as well as the general public. This study utilized an interpretive methodological design to generate assertions regarding career choice made by highly qualified science teachers in the deep, rural South through analysis of documents, interviews, focus groups, and observation. Generally considered “difficult to staff” because of location, socioeconomics, and demographics, Wilson County High School is an exemplar in science teacher retention and student achievement. Findings presented include how the science department at Wilson County improved student learning outcomes as well as the reasons why two of the highly qualified science teachers at this school were considering leaving the profession they love.
For the last decade, international bodies have warned of a teacher shortage and sought to find ways of attracting more applicants to the profession. This article reports on a pilot study undertaken at one Australian university which asked why some applicants to preservice teaching courses had given up existing careers in order to become teachers. It then asked if their career change had been successful. Using open-ended questions and interviews, this paper recorded the view of 35 teachers who had been in teaching for 2–5 years. The findings suggest that reasons for selecting teaching as a second career are more complex and nuanced than existing research suggests, combining pragmatic, deeply personal and spiritual elements. It also found a significant connection between career change teachers’ satisfaction with their new occupation and the status of their occupation, indicating that further study of career change teachers’ experiences and personal beliefs is warranted.
There is considerable concern regarding the declining proportion of minorities entering teaching. We use data on Indiana public school teachers to examine Black representation in the teaching force, their patterns of entry and attrition. We find that the overall picture—an aging Black teaching force, increasing attrition due to retirement, a decreasing proportion of new Black hires—suggests that Black representation in the teaching force may well become a cause for concern unless active recruitment policies are implemented.
This study employed survey research to investigate the differential relationships between dimensions of teachers’ job satisfaction (e.g. salary) and their turnover intention, after controlling for demographic variables (e.g. school location). Five hundred and ten teachers from a northeastern city of China participated. The results of the hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that (a) teachers were more likely to stay in teaching profession if they worked in urban schools, always wanted to become a teacher or had a realistic view of teaching before they began their career training and (b) a negative relationship existed between teachers’ compensation and their turnover intention. This study offered some implications for Chinese educational policy-makers and practitioners regarding how to remain qualified teachers.
Teacher attrition, especially among new teachers, has been an issue of major concern for policy makers and administrators for many years. Prior research has provided valuable information regarding the teacher and organizational factors associated with attrition from the profession and teacher mobility across schools. Less attention, however, has been placed on quantifying the problem and placing actual differences by teacher and organizational characteristics into perspective. Using more than 30 years of population data on new teacher cohorts from Illinois, the authors provide a more nuanced analysis of new teacher attrition from both the profession and schools. In contrast to conventional wisdom, the authors reveal a stronger attachment to the profession by recent cohorts of Illinois teachers compared to teachers who began during the 1970s. Moreover, the authors find that variation in school-level attrition is substantially greater within school type than across school type. Thus, rather than thinking of new teacher attrition from schools as primarily an urban or disadvantaged school problem, the study results suggest that policy makers and administrators need to be thinking of it as primarily an individual school problem, and thereby work to identify and provide more targeted assistance to schools of all types that are particularly burdened by high teacher turnover.
We present a novel approach to the empirical Bayes analysis of aggregated survival data from different groups of subjects. The method is based on a contingency table representation of the data and employs transformations to permit the use of normal priors. In contrast to the case of a single survival curve, the empirical Bayes analysis of families of such curves leads to estimates which offer a qualitative improvement over classical estimates based on the ratio of occurrence to exposure rates. This method is illustrated with data on the attainment of the doctoral degree from three major universities.
Although school reform policies often aim to recruit and retain talented and high-achieving teachers, little systematic investigation of the impacts of work redesign on teachers' turnover decisions exists. The impacts of varied teacher work and career redesign incentives, therefore, remain uncertain, particularly as they affect the best teachers. This article presents the policy implications of studies of teachers' responses to features of work redesign as they relate to future career choice decisions, teacher labor market, and teacher supply in specific target areas.
In this paper, we present an exploratory methodology for detecting and documenting an influence on the duration of teacher employment which has heretofore eluded empirical quantification-the involuntary layoff. Using data on the lengths of employment of more than 14,000 teachers hired between 1969 and 1981 in the St. Louis metropolitan area, we show that over and above the effects that previous researchers have identified (such as high early dropout rates and gender differences), there were certain years in which many more recently hired teachers were likely to leave their districts than might have been expected. We then present documentary evidence indicating that these unusual years were ones in which several of the districts under study implemented sizable mandated staff reductions. We conclude by discussing how ignoring involuntary layoffs may lead researchers to erroneously attribute some inter-individual variation in employment duration to other influences such as entering cohort. Viewed in its entirety, our paper presents a methodology for the improved analysis of teacher survival data that allows researchers to uncover not only involuntary layoffs but other predictors of employment duration as well.
This research synthesis aims to more fully understand the current teacher retention crisis in the United States through a re-conceptualization of what is meant by a teaching career. Currently, research is divided into two broad categories: traditional research on teacher retention and traditional research on teachers’ professional lives. This synthesis identifies key studies in both fields and argues for greater coordination between the two in an effort to conceive of teachers’ careers along a continuum and utilize a range of methodologies for understanding those careers. The author points to select studies which begin to bring these two fields together and suggests potential future research directions.
Educational researchers frequently ask whether and, if so, when events occur. Until relatively recently, however, sound statistical methods for answering such questions have not been readily available. In this article, by empirical example and mathematical argument, we demonstrate how the methods of discrete-time survival analysis provide educational statisticians with an ideal framework for studying event occurrence. Using longitudinal data on the career paths of 3,941 special educators as a springboard, we derive maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a discrete-time hazard model, and we show how the model can befit using standard logistic regression software. We then distinguish among the several types of main effects and interactions that can be included as predictors in the model, offering data analytic advice for the practitioner. To aid educational statisticians interested in conducting discrete-time survival analysis, we provide illustrative computer code (SAS, 1989) for fitting discrete-time hazard models and for recapturing fitted hazard and survival functions.
Recruitment, selection and retention of highly qualified teachers continues to be a challenge for urban school districts. Central to the success of recruiting is a well articulated and executed teacher induction process. This paper reports first results of a Fall, 2006 survey of Pennsylvania school superintendents, school board presidents, and local union presidents of teacher recruitment practices, and compares these results to a 1997 survey of the same universe of stakeholders in the teacher recruitment process. Knowledge and opinions about how the interview list is generated, the pool narrowed, and final selection determined are measured for each group of stakeholders. Reasons for requesting waivers are elicited, as are attitudes towards working conditions.
Production research in education has been dominated by attempts to estimate the structural parameters of what has been called the education production function. These estimation attempts are viewed in this article as only one way the production function concept can be drawn upon to inform debates over education policy. After exploring what it means to posit the existence of the education production function, the article critically reviews past estimation efforts and gives examples of how the production function can be used as a source of insight to guide policy-relevant inquiries into education productivity.
This study examines the effects of four team-based structures on the organizational commitment of elementary teachers in an urban school district. The study model focuses on organizational commitment and includes three intervening, endogenous variables: teacher empowerment, school communication, and work autonomy. Team teaching had both direct and indirect effects on commitment to the school. Curriculum teamwork, governance teamwork, and community-relations teamwork each contributed indirectly to higher levels of teacher commitment. Research results suggest the need for organizational designs and procedures that reinforce teacher identification with and involvement in the school organization.
Data from two panel studies, the 1993 to 1995 nationwide Schools and Staffing Survey and the Teacher Follow-Up Survey, as well as a 1998-1999 survey of teachers in one western state are used to examine the influenceof variables related to demographic characteristics, work assignment, effectiveness, social support, and school management on the satisfaction and retention decisions of 1st-year public school teachers. Minor differences appear between the results for the statewide and national samples, but both sets of results indicate that the most important influences on satisfaction involve variables related to social support and school management, and that the most important influence on retention decisions is job satisfaction. Implications for future research and for practitioners are discussed, including the central role of effective and supportive school management in promoting the satisfaction and retention of 1st-year teachers.
This article reviews evidence regarding the intertemporal reliability of teacher rankings based on value-added methods. Value-added methods exhibit low reliability, yet are broadly supported by prominent educational researchers and are increasingly being used to evaluate and fire teachers. The article then presents a cost-effectiveness analysis suggesting that the use of value-added methods to identify and fire the bottom 40% of all teachers reduces average student achievement, is extremely expensive, and is not cost-effective. The policy implication of these results is discussed.
The current worldwide shortage of teachers has serious implications for nations attempting to implement education for sustainability. The inclusion of universal primary education as the second of the UN Millennium Goals was a recognition that education plays a crucial role in the alleviation of poverty, the promotion of peace and security and environmental protection. The projected shortage means that programs aimed at improving knowledge of sustainable practices such as the Australian Sustainable Schools Program, the British Sustainable Development Action Plan for Schools or the Nepal Sustainable Community Development Program will be undermined as the teachers required to deliver them may not be available
This report reveals that about 100 Chicago schools suffer from chronically high rates of teacher turnover, losing a quarter or more of their teaching staff every year, and many of these schools serve predominantly low-income African American children. In the typical Chicago elementary school, 51 percent of the teachers working in 2002 had left four years later, while the typical high school had seen 54 percent leave by 2006. The authors examined the factors associated with high mobility rates, including teachers' background characteristics, school structure, students' characteristics, and workplace conditions. Workforce conditions such as principal leadership, teacher collaboration, student safety all influence stability. In elementary schools, teachers' perceptions of parents as partners in students' education are strongly tied to stability; in high schools, teachers tend to leave schools with the highest rates of student misbehavior. The data includes personnel records from about 35,000 teachers in 538 elementary schools and 118 high schools. This study reflects the Consortium's commitment to study education issues that are top priorities in Chicago and districts nationwide. While some teacher mobility is normal and expected, high turnover rates can produce a range of organizational problems at schools, such as discontinuity in professional development, shortages in key subjects, and loss of teacher leadership. Previous research also indicates that schools with high turnover are more likely to have inexperienced, ineffective teachers. Four appendices are included: (1) Statistical Models; (2) Description of Measures; (3) Characteristics of CPS Teachers; and (4) Numbers of Cases in Figures. (Contains 54 endnotes, 23 figures and 13 tables.)
Examines plausible personal and school-related patterns believed to contribute to changes in teachers' career patterns over a relatively long time. Results with samples of 455 current and 331 former teachers demonstrate several predictors of teacher persistence. Career patterns varied depending on subjects taught, teacher background, and other factors. (SLD)
Teacher retention has become a policy issue of considerable concern; it is, however, a more complex topic than is generally recognized. The fifth follow-up of the National Longitudinal Study, 1972, completed in 1986, included a supplemental questionnaire that was sent to past and present elementary and secondary school teachers, as well as to those who had been trained but had never taught. The data permit the first analysis of teacher attrition based on a national sample that has been followed for a decade or more of professional experience. These data suggest that retention among teachers has increased during the last decade and that the ability and qualifications of teachers have not declined over time. Moreover, former teachers are more likely to have left relatively good schools, in favorable locations, rather than problem schools. Paradoxically, although enhancing teachers' professional status and improving public schools are indisputably worthwhile goals, they may not reduce teacher attrition.
The analysis of censored failure times is considered. It is assumed that on each individual are available values of one or more explanatory variables. The hazard function (age‐specific failure rate) is taken to be a function of the explanatory variables and unknown regression coefficients multiplied by an arbitrary and unknown function of time. A conditional likelihood is obtained, leading to inferences about the unknown regression coefficients. Some generalizations are outlined.