Zeev Maoz is Professor of Political Science and Head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University. He is author of Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Israeli Political Science Association, Tel Aviv, May 28, 1995. I wish to thank Allison Astorino-Courtois, William Dixon, Ben Mor, John Oneal, James Lee Ray, Bruce Russett, and Gerrald Sorokin for their useful comments. Any errors are mine alone.
1. For reviews of this literature, see Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1993); James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995); Michael E. Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller, eds., Debating the Democratic Peace (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996); and James Lee Ray, "The Pacifying Impact of Democracy: Indubitable or Chimerical?" Mimeo, Vanderbilt University (January 1997).
2. An example of this critique is given by John D. Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 1 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-56. This study is not discussed here because it does not present empirical evidence to substantiate these claims. Other studies of this genre are discussed below.
3. Some of the first studies to examine the democratic peace issue hinted at the danger involved in extrapolating prescriptive guidelines from the fact that democracies seemingly do not fight each other. See Melvin Small and J. David Singer, "The War-Proneness of Democratic Regimes," Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, Vol. 1, No. 1 (April 1976), pp. 46-61, and Jack E. Vincent, "Freedom and International Conflict: Another Look," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 31, No. 1 (March 1987), pp. 103-112.
4. See, for example, the pessimistic status reports on international conflict and war in Ted Robert Gurr, ed., Handbook of Political Conflict (New York: Free Press, 1980), especially the articles by Dina Zinncs and Michael Stohl. Another more recent and basically pessimistic review is provided by Jack S. Levy, "The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence," in Philip E. Tetlock, Roy Radner, and Robert Axelrod, eds., Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, Vol. 1 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 209-333. One review that views the full half of the research glass is John A. Vasquez, The War Puzzle (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
5. Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996), chaps. 1 and 7; Bruce Russett, "Processes of Dyadic Choice for War and Peace," World Politics, Vol. 47, No. 2 (January 1995), pp. 268-282; Bruce Russett, "And Yet It Moves," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 4 (Spring 1995), pp. 164-175; and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict.
6. Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future"; David E. Spiro, "The Insignificance of the Democratic Peace," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Summer 1994), pp. 50-86; and Henry Farber and Joanne Gowa, "Polities and Peace," International Security, Vol. 20, No. 2 (Summer 1995), pp. 123-146.
7. Spiro, "The Insignificance of the Democratic Peace," Appendix, pp. 82-86, column 9.
8. Zeev Maoz and Nasrin Abdolali, "Regime Type and International Conflict, 1816-1976," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 33, No. 1 (March 1989), p. 25.
9. Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Alliance, Wealth Contiguity, and Political Stability: Is the Lack of Conflict Between Democracies a Statistical Artifact?" International Interactions, Vol. 17, No. 4 (January 1992), pp. 245-267, and Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986," American Political Science Review, Vol. 87, No. 3 (September 1993), pp. 624-638. Politically relevant dyads are dyads that are directly or indirectly contiguous or those in which one member is a major power with a global reach capacity or a regional power with a regional reach capacity.
10. I differ with James Lee Ray, "War Between Democracies: Rare or Nonexistent?" International Interactions, Vol. 18, No. 3 (September 1993), pp. 251-276, and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict, as well as with my findings in Maoz and Abdolali, "Regime Type...