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Sun's motion and sunspots
... As indicated by a small curved arrow, the Sun is not at rest in this inertial system, but instead pursues a orbital trajectory about the "fixed" solar system barycenter. The somewhat irregular looping motion of the Sun about the SSB (Jose, 1965;Fairbridge & Shirley, 1987) is mainly due to the presence of the giant planets, whose orbital momenta together account for about 98% of the angular momentum of the solar system. The peak displacement of the Sun's center from the SSB is a little over 2 solar radii. ...
... The EMS contribution (Fig. 5b) is often the larger of the two, over extended periods of time; however, the peak values of the more variable EMB component can significantly exceed in magnitude those of the EMS. it is helpful to consider the trajectory of the Sun, with respect to the solar system barycenter, during these years, as illustrated in Fig. 6. The Sun's trajectory is largely determined by the orbital motions and relative positioning of the giant planets (Jose, 1965). ...
... The mean duration of the four orbital cycles shown is ~21 yr. Relationships purportedly linking the Sun's orbital motion with the excitation of the ~22-yr Hale magnetic cycle of solar activity were discovered and described by Jose (1965). Notable among many subsequent investigations are those of Fairbridge & Shirley (1987), and Shirley (2017b; see in particular Figs. 1 and 4 of that study). ...
The recent addition of orbit-spin coupling torques to atmospheric global circulation models has enabled successful years-in-advance forecasts of global and regional-scale dust storms on Mars. Here we explore the applicability of the orbit-spin coupling mechanism for understanding and forecasting anomalous weather and climate events on Earth. We calculate the time history of orbit-spin coupling torques on the Earth system for the interval from 1860-2040. The torque exhibits substantial variability on decadal to bidecadal timescales. Deep minima recur at intervals from 15-26 years; eight such episodes are documented within the study period prior to 2020. Each of the identified torque minima corresponds in time to an episode of widespread drought in the Western USA extending over several years. The multiyear droughts of the 1930s, the 1950s, the mid-1970s, the early 1990s, and of 2011-2015 were each coincident in time with orbit-spin coupling torque minima. The upcoming torque minimum of 2030 is the deepest such minimum of the 180-yr study interval. A multiyear episode of widespread drought in the Western USA is likely to be underway by 2028 plus or minus 4 years (2 standard deviations). The potential benefits to societies of improved drought predictions justify an immediate high-priority effort to include forcing by orbit-spin coupling within state-of-the-art Earth system GCMs. Future targeted numerical modeling investigations are likely to yield forecasts with considerably lower uncertainties and with much improved temporal resolution in comparison to that obtained here.
... Vazbou sluneční aktivity na polohy planet nebo barycentra Sluneční soustavy se zabývala řada autorů (Jose 1965, Landscheidt 1983, 1986, Charvátová 1988, 1990, 1997, 2000, Charvátová and Střeštík 2004. Jose (1965) ukázal, že v prvním přiblížení jsou změny sluneční aktivity podobné změnám momentu hybnosti Slunce ve 22-letém Haleho cyklu (Hale and Nicholson 1925) když vezme do úvahy přepólování sudých a lichých cyklů. ...
... Vazbou sluneční aktivity na polohy planet nebo barycentra Sluneční soustavy se zabývala řada autorů (Jose 1965, Landscheidt 1983, 1986, Charvátová 1988, 1990, 1997, 2000, Charvátová and Střeštík 2004. Jose (1965) ukázal, že v prvním přiblížení jsou změny sluneční aktivity podobné změnám momentu hybnosti Slunce ve 22-letém Haleho cyklu (Hale and Nicholson 1925) když vezme do úvahy přepólování sudých a lichých cyklů. Landscheidt (1999) ukázal, že 178,8-letá společná perioda planet Sluneční soustavy představuje synchronizační bod časování maxim a minim 11-letých Schwabeho cyklů, ačkoli příspěvek orbitálního momentu Slunce dosahuje pouze 25% celkového úhlového momentu. ...
... Opět diferenciální rotace Slunce by vykazovala 2 maxima -jedno kladné a jedno záporné. Tento důsledek by potvrzoval předpoklad Jose (1965), který reverzoval polarity sluneční aktivity podle čísla cyklu (kladné cykly opačně než záporné) a teprve takovou sluneční aktivitu srovnával se změnou orbitálního rotačního momentu a vyvracel by připomínku DeJager and Versteegh (2005), že není důvodu takto činit. ...
Abstrakt "Časové změny rychlosti rotace Slunce jsou způsobeny gravitačními silami planet. Rychlost rotace Slunce může ovlivňovat sluneční aktivitu." Pokud bychom prokázali tuto spojitost, mohli bychom předpovídat sluneční aktivitu z postavení planet, jak se o to pokoušela v minulosti řada autorů. Sluneční soustava představuje s vysokou přesností izolovaný systém, jehož celkový moment hybnosti je v čase konstantní. Pokusili jsme se určit změnu rotačního momentu hybnosti Slunce tak, že jsme spočetli všechny ostatní příspěvky k celkovému momentu hybnosti. Z efemerid planet (JPL NASA) bylo nejprve spočteno těžiště Sluneční soustavy. Vůči tomuto těžišti byl spočten časový průběh momentů hybností všech planet, největších planetek a orbitální moment hybnosti Slunce. Bylo ukázáno, že součet těchto momentů není konstantní a tyto změny jsou větší než je chyba měření. To lze vysvětlit buď existencí dalších dosud neznámých těles ve Sluneční soustavě nebo změnou rotačního momentu Slunce. Pokud bychom chtěli vysvětlit celou změnu pouze změnou rotačního momentu Slunce, dostali bychom nereálně velké změny rychlosti rotace. Změnu však nelze plně vysvětlit ani neznámými planetami obíhajícími kolem Slunce ve velké vzdálenosti, protože tyto planety mají příliš dlouhé oběžné doby a nemohou kompenzovat změny s periodami několika let až desítek let. Bylo však ukázáno, že lze nalézt řešení kombinací obou těchto efektů. Byly uváženy dvě hypotetické planety, které kompenzují dlouhodobé změny momentu hybnosti. Zbytek považujeme za změnu rotačního momentu hybnosti Slunce. Ukazuje se, že takto vypočtené změny rotačního momentu Slunce korelují se Sluneční aktivitou.
Abstract The explanation of the basis of gravitational influence of planets on solar activity could be variations of spin rotational momentum of the Sun transformed from orbital momentum of planets. The relations between positions of planets and changes of spin momentum of the Sun were deduced. The result is: If the solar activity depends on changes of spin momentum of the Sun, the Sun is a gravitational compass, which shows the position of the mass center of the Solar system. The position of the mass center of the Solar system was evaluated from ephemerides of planets (JPL NASA). The orbital momentums of planets and the Sun were then evaluated. It was shown that such sum of orbital momentum is not constant, but it has a prevailing period of about 11.82 years. Such changes of orbital momentum cannot be transformed into spin momentum of the Sun due to its high value. It was shown that we are able to optimize the position of the mass center of the Solar system (adding undiscovered mass) in such way that the changes of orbital momentum of all the Solar system are comparable with observed changes of spin momentum of the Sun. Jupiter and Saturn have the biggest uncompensated rests of orbital momentum in this case. The numerical model of solar activity was built. In this model there are only a few parameters like the starting position of the mass center and its average angular velocity, the starting position of Jupiter (depending on the position of mass center), and a starting position of Saturn and Neptune and their interference period.
... While solar system total angular momentum is conserved, the orbital angular momenta of the Sun and planets individually (with respect to the solar system barycenter, by convention the origin of the solar system inertial frame) exhibit considerable variability with time [5,17]. Orbital angular momentum is exchanged between the various members of the solar system family on an ongoing and continuous basis. ...
... In n-body systems, however, as discussed and illustrated in [P1], and noted earlier in Section II and Table II, subject body orbital angular momenta with respect to inertial coordinates (i.e., with reference to the nbody system barycenter) typically vary with time. The Sun, for instance, may gain and lose the equivalent of the total orbital angular momentum of the Earth-Moon system (Table II), over time intervals of a decade or two [17]. Figure 2 illustrates both the input to, and the output from, equation (1), over an interval of 15 yr, for the case of Mars. ...
... This criterion has broad applicability across a range of disciplines. It may be employed for problems ranging from atmospheric time-variability, as in [P4] and [P5], to questions of dynamo excitation [17,69], and beyond. ...
The orbital motions and spin-axis rotations of extended bodies are traditionally considered to be coupled only by tidal mechanisms. The orbit-spin coupling hypothesis supplies an additional mechanism. A reversing torque on rotating extended bodies is identified. The torque effects an exchange of angular momentum between the reservoirs of the orbital and rotational motions. The axis of the torque is constrained to lie within the equatorial plane of the subject body. Hypothesis testing to date has focused on the response to the putative torque of the Martian atmosphere. Atmospheric global circulation model simulations reveal that an episodic strengthening and weakening of meridional overturning circulations should be observable and is diagnostic in connection with the triggering of Martian planet-encircling dust storms. Spacecraft observations obtained during the earliest days of the 2018 Martian global dust storm document a strong intensification of atmospheric meridional motions as predicted under this hypothesis. We review implications for atmospheric physics, for investigations of planetary orbital evolution with rotational energy dissipation, and for theories of gravitation.
... It is bounded on either side by the period of five Jupiter-Neptune synods (63.9 yr), and five Jupiter-Uranus synods (69.05 yr). The 44.7 yr period is also in a 1 : 2 ratio with the ⇠ 90 yr Gleissberg cycle and a 1 : 4 ratio with the ⇠ 179 yr Jose cycle (José, 1965). Table 8 lists periods close to the ⇠ 60 yr period identified as an important terrestrial climate oscillation . ...
... In the 1970s, it was realized (although suggested before; e.g. José, 1965) that the true centre of our planetary system is the centre of mass (CM), which even the Sun has to move around in response to the planetary beat (Landscheidt, 1976(Landscheidt, , 1979. The evolution in ruling concept over the last 2500 yr is illustrated in Fig. 1. ...
... Mörth and Schlamminger, 1979) as well as the Sun's motion with respect to the centre of mass (e.g. José, 1965;Landscheidt, 1976). ...
The Sun’s activity constantly varies in characteristic cyclic patterns. With new material and new analyses, we reinforce the old proposal that the driv- ing forces are to be found the planetary beat on the Sun and the Sun’s mo- tions around the center of mass. This is a Special Issue published on Pattern Recognition in Physics where various aspects of the Planetary–Solar–Terrestrial interaction are highlighted in 12 independent papers. The Special Issue ends with General Conclusions co-authored by 19 prominent specialists on solar- terrestrial interaction and terrestrial climate. They conclude that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from gravitational and inertial effects on the Sun from the planets and their satellites. By this, an old hypothesis seems elevated into a firm theory, maybe even a new paradigm.
... Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, as the orbits these planets are nearly circular and have low inclination to the ecliptic plane. As shown in Figure 1, the SIM, calculated using circular orbits for the eight known planets, is scarcely distinguishable from SIM calculated using exact planet orbits based on ephemeris data [6] [32] [34] [42]. However using a circular orbit for Planet 9 is an approximation as its orbit is projected to be eccentric, ε ~ 0.3, and inclined to the ecliptic, i ~ 15˚ [1]. ...
... Another conundrum in this attempt to relate SIM to SSN is the discrepancy between the ~177 year Jose periodicity obtained by spectral analysis of the solar activity record, Figure 11(a) and Figure 16(b), and the ~170 year Jose periodicity obtained from SIM, Figure 9(a) and Figure 10(a). Sharp [71] and McCracken et al. [32], using very long records of SIM, estimated the Jose period to be ~171 years as opposed to the estimate by Jose (1965), over the short interval 1653 to 2060, of a Jose period of ~about 178 years. The estimate obtained in this paper using the approximation of circular planet orbits is a period ~169 years for SIM including Planet 9 and a period ~172 years for SIM for the eight planet system, the latter value consistent with the estimate by Sharp [71] and McCracken et al. [32]. ...
... Any general function of the orbits of the planetssuch as their barycentric distance, speed, angular momentum, etc.must share a common set of frequencies with those of the solar motion (e.g. : Jose, 1965;Bucha et al., 1985;Cionco and Pavlov, 2018;Scafetta, 2010). Instead, the amplitudes and phases associated with each constituent harmonic depend on the specific chosen function. ...
... where 178 years corresponds to the period that Jose (1965) found both in the solar orbital motion and in the sunspot records (cf.: Jakubcová and Pick, 1986;Charvátová and Hejda, 2014). A comparison between the observed frequencies and those predicted by the harmonic model of Eq. 3 is shown in Figure 1D, where a strong coincidence is observed. ...
Commenting the 11-year sunspot cycle, Wolf (1859, MNRAS 19, 85–86) conjectured that “the variations of spot-frequency depend on the influences of Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn.” The high synchronization of our planetary system is already nicely revealed by the fact that the ratios of the planetary orbital radii are closely related to each other through a scaling-mirror symmetry equation (Bank and Scafetta, Front. Astron. Space Sci. 8, 758184, 2022). Reviewing the many planetary harmonics and the orbital invariant inequalities that characterize the planetary motions of the solar system from the monthly to the millennial time scales, we show that they are not randomly distributed but clearly tend to cluster around some specific values that also match those of the main solar activity cycles. In some cases, planetary models have even been able to predict the time-phase of the solar oscillations including the Schwabe 11-year sunspot cycle. We also stress that solar models based on the hypothesis that solar activity is regulated by its internal dynamics alone have never been able to reproduce the variety of the observed cycles. Although planetary tidal forces are weak, we review a number of mechanisms that could explain how the solar structure and the solar dynamo could get tuned to the planetary motions. In particular, we discuss how the effects of the weak tidal forces could be significantly amplified in the solar core by an induced increase in the H-burning. Mechanisms modulating the electromagnetic and gravitational large-scale structure of the planetary system are also discussed.
... These periods are already known to be characteristic of the space-time evolution of the Earth's rotation axis: the rotation pole (RP) also undergoes periodic motions longer than 1 year, at least up to the Gleissberg ∼90 yr cycle (Chandler 1891a,b;Markowitz 1968;Kirov et al. 2002;Lambeck 2005;Zotov et Bizouard 2012;Chao et al. 2014;Zotov et al. 2016;Lopes et al. 2017;Le Mouël et al. 2021;Lopes et al. , 2022a. They are encountered in solar physics (Gleissberg 1939;Jose 1965;Coles et al. 2019;Charvatova et Strestik 1991;Scafetta 2010;Le Mouël et al. 2017;Usoskin 2017;Scafetta 2020;Courtillot et al. 2021;Scafetta 2021) and terrestrial climate (Wood et al. 1974;Mörth et Schlamminger 1979;Mörner 1984;Schlesinger et Ramankutty 1994;Lau and Weng 1995;Courtillot et al. 2007Courtillot et al. , 2013Le Mouël et al. 2019a;Scafetta et al. 2020;Connolly et al. 2021). ...
... • ∼ 130 years (∼0.7 hPa). We recognize the Jose (1965) cycle, • ∼ 90 yr (∼21 hPa). We recognize the Gleissberg (1939) cycle ( ...
This paper proposes a joint analysis of variations of global sea-level pressure and of Earth's rotation (RP), expressed as the coordinates of the rotation pole and length of day. Sea-Level-Pressure (SLP) extracted components are a weak trend, eleven quasi-periodic or periodic components ($\sim$130, 90, 50, 22, 15, 4, 1.8 yr), an annual cycle and its first three harmonics. These periods are characteristic of the space-time evolution of the Earth's rotation axis and are present in many characteristic features of solar and terrestrial physics. We focus mainly on the annual and to a lesser extent semi-annual components. Maps of the first three components of SLP (that together comprise more than 85% of the data variance) reveal interesting symmetries. The trend is very stable and forms a triskel structure that can be modeled as Taylor-Couette flow of mode 3. The annual component is characterized by a large negative anomaly extending over Eurasia in the NH Summer (and the opposite in the NH Winter) and three large positive anomalies over Australia and the southern tips of South America and South Africa in the SH Spring (and the opposite in the SH Autumn) forming a triskel. The semi-annual component is characterized by three positive anomalies (an irregular triskel) in the NH Spring and Autumn (and the opposite in the NH Summer and Winter), and in the SH Spring and Autumn by a strong stable pattern consisting of three large negative anomalies forming a clear triskel within the 40$^{\circ}$-60$^{\circ}$ annulus formed by the southern oceans. A large positive anomaly centered over Antarctica, with its maximum displaced toward Australia, and a smaller one centered over Southern Africa complement the pattern.
... As longer-term cycles are concerned, it was recently confirmed (Stefani et al., 2020a) that the modulation period of the duration of the Schwabe cycles, as inferred from Schove's maxima data (Schove, 1983), is close to 200 years, a number which is consistent with previous results for the Suess-de Vries cycle relying on historic sunspot observations (Ma and Vaquero, 2020), 10 Be and 14 C data (Muscheler et al., 2007), and various climate related data (Lüdecke, Weiss and Hempelmann, 2015). It was not least the relative sharpness of that Suess-de Vries cycle which had motivated many authors (Jose, 1965;Fairbridge and Shirley, 1987;Charvatova, 1997;Landscheidt, 1999;Abreu et al., 2012;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;McCracken, Beer and Steinhilber, 2014;Cionco and Soon, 2015;Scafetta et al., 2016) to search for a link between the solar dynamo and planetary forcings with correspondingly long periods. ...
... This cycle governs the orbit of the Sun around the barycenter of the planetary system, comprising vast deflections in the order of the Sun's diameter and velocities of up to 15 m s −1 (Sharp, 2013;Cionco and Pavlov, 2018). Superposed on that period are minor wiggles stemming mainly from the orbits of Uranus and Neptune, which ultimately leads to a rather complicated motion with another 171-year periodicity, sometimes related to the "Jose cycle" (Jose, 1965;Charvatova, 1997;Landscheidt, 1999;Sharp, 2013). Still, it is the dominant 19.86-year cycle which has the capacity to produce, in concert with the 22.14-year Hale cycle, a beat period of 19.86 × 22.14/(22.14 ...
We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess–de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can all be explained by combined synchronization with the 11.07-year periodic tidal forcing of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-year periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. We present model simulations where grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess–de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.
... Slunce reaguje svou aktivitou na změnu gravitačního pole danou vzájemným postavením všech planet ve Sluneční soustavě (Kalenda, Málek 2006, Wilson et al. 2013, Mörner 2012, 2015, Scafetta 2010, Zharkova et al. 2015. V čase se tak mění jak vzdálenost Slunce od těžiště Sluneční soustavy (Jose 1965), tvar orbity Slunce (Jakubcová, Pick 1987, Charvátová 1988, 1990, Charvátová, Střeštík 1991, tak také orbitální a spinové rotační momenty Slunce a planet (Kalenda, Málek 2006) a momenty hybnosti (Kalenda, Málek 2008), které korelují se sluneční aktivitou, jak ukázal už Jose (1965). Ve sluneční aktivitě tak můžeme detekovat různé cykly, které odrážejí měnící se vlivy jednotlivých planet. ...
... Slunce reaguje svou aktivitou na změnu gravitačního pole danou vzájemným postavením všech planet ve Sluneční soustavě (Kalenda, Málek 2006, Wilson et al. 2013, Mörner 2012, 2015, Scafetta 2010, Zharkova et al. 2015. V čase se tak mění jak vzdálenost Slunce od těžiště Sluneční soustavy (Jose 1965), tvar orbity Slunce (Jakubcová, Pick 1987, Charvátová 1988, 1990, Charvátová, Střeštík 1991, tak také orbitální a spinové rotační momenty Slunce a planet (Kalenda, Málek 2006) a momenty hybnosti (Kalenda, Málek 2008), které korelují se sluneční aktivitou, jak ukázal už Jose (1965). Ve sluneční aktivitě tak můžeme detekovat různé cykly, které odrážejí měnící se vlivy jednotlivých planet. ...
Pohyb vody a tepla na Zemi představuje z fyzikálního hlediska chaotický systém, jehož chování je v detailu nepředpověditelné. Avšak v mnohaletých řadách lze vypozorovat, že dochází ke kvazicyklickým změnám rozložení povrchové teploty a srážek. Tyto změny se nazývají klimatické cykly. Jedním z významných vlivů, které cykly způsobuje, je proměnná sluneční aktivita, která má za následek změny slunečního osvitu Země. Ta ovlivňuje povrchovou teplotu Země, proudění atmosféry a oceánů, a konečně změny skupenství vody. Záření, vycházející ze Slunce, je Zemí zachycováno jenom velmi nepatrně. Země zachytí přibližně jednu dvoumiliardtinu, tj. 1,8⋅10 17 W z celkového výkonu Slunce. 3,85⋅10 26 W. V době minima sluneční aktivity byl změřen tok slunečního záření 1361 W/m 2 (Kopp, Lean 2011). Sluneční irradiace je tok sluneční energie procházející plochou 1 m², kolmou na směr paprsků, za 1 s ve střední vzdálenosti Země od Slunce (1 AU) měřený mimo zemskou atmosféru.
... As longer-term cycles are concerned, it was recently confirmed (Stefani et al., 2020a) that the modulation period of the duration of the Schwabe cycles, as inferred from Schove's maxima data (Schove, 1983), is close to 200 years, a number which is consistent with previous results for the Suess-de Vries cycle relying on historic sunspot observations (Ma and Vaquero, 2020), 10 Be and 14 C data (Muscheler et al., 2007), and various climate related data (Lüdecke, Weiss and Hempelmann, 2015). It was not least the relative sharpness of that Suess-de Vries cycle which had motivated many authors (Jose, 1965;Fairbridge and Shirley, 1987;Charvatova, 1997;Landscheidt, 1999;Abreu et al., 2012;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;McCracken, Beer and Steinhilber, 2014;Cionco and Soon, 2015;Scafetta et al., 2016) to search for a link between the solar dynamo and planetary forcings with correspondingly long periods. ...
... This cycle governs the orbit of the Sun around the barycenter of the planetary system, comprising vast deflections in the order of the Sun's diameter and velocities of up to 15 m s −1 (Sharp, 2013;Cionco and Pavlov, 2018). Superposed on that period are minor wiggles stemming mainly from the orbits of Uranus and Neptune, which ultimately leads to a rather complicated motion with another 171-year periodicity, sometimes related to the "Jose cycle" (Jose, 1965;Charvatova, 1997;Landscheidt, 1999;Sharp, 2013). Still, it is the dominant 19.86-year cycle which has the capacity to produce, in concert with the 22.14-year Hale cycle, a beat period of 19.86 × 22.14/(22.14 ...
We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess-de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can be self-consistently explained by double synchronization with the 11.07-years periodic tidal forcing of the Venus-Earth-Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-years periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. In our numerical simulation, grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess-de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.
... where j is the cluster number and ν = 0.00558 1/year. Note that j = 1 corresponds to the 179-yr Jose cycle (Jose, 1965;Fairbridge and Shirley, 1987;Scafetta and Willson, 2013a), which is a common repeating pattern among the conjunctions of the Jovian planets (cf. Decandole, 2003). ...
... iv) For M ≥ 1, a cluster forms between 159 yr and 185 yr. It corresponds to the Jose spectral band (Jose, 1965;Fairbridge and Shirley, 1987;Sharpe, 2013;Scafetta and Willson, 2013a). This spectral band includes also the orbital period of Neptune (164.8 yr). ...
Gravitational planetary lensing of slow-moving matter streaming towards the Sun was suggested to explain puzzling solar-flare occurrences and other unexplained solar-emission phenomena (Bertolucci et al. in Phys. Dark Universe17, 13, 2017). If it is actually so, the effect of gravitational lensing of this stream by heavy planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune) could be manifested in solar activity changes on longer time scales too where solar records present specific oscillations known in the literature as the cycles of Bray–Hallstatt (2100–2500 yr), Eddy (800–1200 yr), Suess–de Vries (200–250 yr), Jose (155–185 yr), Gleissberg (80–100 year), the 55–65 yr spectral cluster and others. It is herein hypothesized that these oscillations emerge from specific periodic planetary orbital configurations that generate particular waves in the force-fields of the heliosphere which could be able to synchronize solar activity. These harmonics are defined by a subset of orbital frequencies herein labeled as “orbital invariant inequalities” of the solar system that derive from the synodical periods among the Jovian planets. Thus, they are associated with the repeating pattern of planetary alignment relative to the Sun when tidal forcing, interplanetary magnetic couplings and planetary lensing effects could be enhanced. These frequencies are physically relevant also because they are invariant relative to any spinning system centered on the Sun and, therefore, they and their combinations should characterize the spectrum of any forcing able to externally synchronizing the internal dynamics of the solar dynamo. Herein the orbital invariant inequalities of the solar system are determined and are demonstrated to cluster around specific spectral bands that exactly correspond to the above spectrum of solar activity. In particular, the orbital invariant inequality model is shown to predict, both in frequency and phase, the Bray–Hallstatt cycle (2100–2500 yr) found in \(\Delta ^{14}C\) and in climate records throughout the Holocene. The result suggests that some kind of planetary forcing is synchronizing solar internal dynamics.
... Nepomnyashchikh et al. (2019) showed that long-term variations in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity resulting from short-term fluctuations in the α-effect of solar dynamo. On the other hand, a number of authors suggested the existence of a connection between solar variability (both long-and short-terms) and planetary configurations (Jose, 1965;Wood and Wood, 1965;Wood, 1972;Gokhale and Javaraiah, 1995;Zaqarashvili, 1997;Juckett, 2003;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;Abreu et al., 2012;Cionco and Compagnucci, 2012;Wilson, 2013;Salvador, 2013;Sharp, 2013;Chowdhury et al., 2016;Stefani et al., 2016;Stefani, Giesecke, and Weier, 2019). Javaraiah (2005) found the existence of a good agreement between the amplitudes of the variations in the Sun's spin and the orbital angular momenta at the common epochs of the steep decreases in both the orbital angular momentum and the Sun's equatorial rotation rate determined from sunspot data. ...
... As can be seen in Figure 5a, there exist ≈13.6-year and ≈41.6-year periodicities in ψ D around the years 1632, 1672, 1811, 1851, 1990, and 2030, when there was steep decrease in the Sun's orbital angular momentum about the solar system barycenter caused by some specific configurations of the giant planets (see Javaraiah, 2005). The well-known 179-year period of the Sun's orbital angular momentum (Jose, 1965) is obviously exists in ψ D (however, most of the power spectral region of this period is within the region of cone of influence). In addition, relatively a very weak ≈20-year periodicity exists in ψ D , continuously throughout the 1600 -2099. ...
The existence of ~12-year and ~51-year periodicities in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity is well known. However, the origin of these as well as the well-known relatively short periodicities in the north-south asymmetry is not yet clear. Here we have analyzed the combined daily data of sunspot groups reported in Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1874-2017 and the data of the orbital positions (ecliptic longitudes) of the giant planets in ten-day intervals during the period 1600-2099. Our analysis suggests that ~12-year and ~51-year periodicities in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity are the manifestations of the differences in the strengths of ~11-year and ~51-year periodicities of activity in the northern- and southern-hemispheres. During the period 1874-2017 the Morlet wavelet power spectra of the north-south asymmetry of sunspot-group area and the mean absolute difference of the orbital positions of the giant planets are found to be similar. Particularly, there is a suggestion that the ~12-year and ~51-year periodicities in the north-south asymmetry of sunspot-group area occurred during approximately the same times as the corresponding periodicities in the mean absolute difference of the orbital positions of the giant planets. Therefore, we suggest that there could be influence of some specific configurations of the giant planets in the origin of the ~12-year and ~50-year periodicities of the north-south asymmetry of solar activity.
... Again, velocities of that scale could definitely be dynamo relevant, remembering a similar scale of 10 m/s for the meridional circulation [1]. Somewhat related to the distinction between tidal versus spin-orbit models, planetary forcing models can further be classified into models of hard synchronization of the basic Schwabe cycle (e.g., with the 11.07-year spring tide period of the tidally dominant Venus-Earth-Jupiter system [6,14,[16][17][18], partly in combination with a gear effect [15]) and models of soft modulations of this Schwabe cycle, with main focus on the Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries and Hallstatt cycle [19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][28]. ...
... We have seen that the period of the dominant Suess-de Vries cycle as inferred from Schove's maxima data is very close to 200 years, which is highly consistent with previous results based on 10 Be and 14 C data [43], and various climate related data [38]. The robustness and relative sharpness of that peak suggests a link to planetary forcings with equal or similar periods, as discussed by many authors [19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][28]. Another explanation, which also brings us close to the 200 years cycle, relies on the beat period of 193 years [15,29] that arises from the interplay of the 22.14-year Hale cycle and the 19.86-year synodic cycle of Jupiter and Saturn (which produces, according to Fig. 3, the dominant component of the solar motion around the SSB). ...
Aiming at a consistent planetary synchronization model of both short-term and long-term solar cycles, we start with an analysis of Schove's historical data of cycle maxima. Their deviations (residuals) from the average cycle duration of 11.07 years show a high degree of regularity, comprising a dominant 200-year period (Suess-de Vries cycle), and a few periods around 100 years (Gleissberg cycle). Encouraged by their robustness, we support previous forecasts of an upcoming grand minimum in the 21st century. To explain the long-term cycles, we enhance our tidally synchronized solar dynamo model by a modulation of the field storage capacity of the tachocline with the orbital angular momentum of the Sun, which is dominated by the 19.86-year periodicity of the Jupiter-Saturn synodes. This modulation of the 22.14 years Hale cycle leads to a 193-year beat period of dynamo activity which is indeed close to the Suess-de Vries cycle. For stronger dynamo modulation, the model produces additional peaks at typical Gleissberg frequencies, which seem to be explainable by the non-linearities of the basic beat process, leading to a bi-modality of the Schwabe cycle. However, a complementary role of beat periods between the Schwabe cycle and the Jupiter-Uranus/Neptune synodic cycles cannot be completely excluded.
... By studying their intra-annual growth in relation to flooding event, the process by which a response may register tree-rings increments. high precipitation in the early growing season has positive effect on annual growth, whereas dry periods are negatively related to radial increment in tree rings (Kelly et al.1994).The sunspot numbers into were given negative signs in alternative cycles, with the sign of 1957 maximum considered positive .then, the method proposed by Jose (1965) was used, In which certain minor maxima are considered to be parts of longer cycles. ...
This paper addresses the Solar Activity cause and effect of climate change and their various impacts. Earth's climate is determined by complex interactions among the Sun, oceans, atmosphere, cry sphere, land surface and biosphere. The Sun is the principal driving force for Earth's weather and climate. The Sun's energy is distributed unevenly on Earth's surface due to the tilt of Earth's axis of rotation. Over the course of a year, the angle of rotation results in equatorial areas receiving more solar energy than those near the poles. As a result, the tropical oceans and land masses absorb a great deal more heat than the other regions of Earth. The atmosphere and oceans act together to redistribute this heat. As the equatorial waters warm air near the ocean surface, it expands rises and drifts towards the poles; cooler denser air from the subtropics and the poles moves toward the equator to take its place. This continual redistribution of heat is modified by the planet's west to east rotation and the Coriolis force associated with the planet's spherical shape, giving rise to the high jet streams and the prevailing westerly trade winds. The winds, in turn, along with Earth's rotation, drive large ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic, the Humboldt Current in the South Pacific, and the North and South Equatorial Currents. Ocean currents redistribute warmers waters away from the tropics towards the poles. The ocean and atmosphere exchange heat and water, carbon dioxide and other gases. By its mass and high heat capacity, the ocean moderates climate change from season to season and year to year. These complex, changing atmospheric and oceanic patterns help determine Earth's weather and climate. Scientists all over the world are making predictions about the ill effects of Global warming and connecting events. The effect of global warming is increasing the average temperature of the Earth. A rise in Earth's temperatures can in turn root to other alterations in the ecology, including an increasing sea level and modifying the quantity and pattern of rainfall. These modifications may boost the occurrence and concentration of severe climate events, such as floods, famines, heat waves, tornados, and twisters. Other consequences may comprise of higher or lower agricultural outputs, glacier melting, lesser summer stream flows, genus extinctions and rise in the ranges of disease vectors. As an effect of global warming species like golden toad, harlequin frog of Costa Rica has already become extinct. There are number of species that have a threat of disappearing soon as an effect of global warming. As an effect of global warming various new diseases have emerged lately. These diseases are occurring frequently due to the increase in Earths average temperature since the bacteria can survive better in elevated temperatures and even multiply faster when the conditions are favorable. The global warming is extending the distribution of mosquitoes due to the increase in humidity levels and their frequent growth in warmer atmosphere. Various diseases due to Ebola, hanta and machupo virus are expected due to warmer climates. The marine life is also very sensitive to the increase in temperatures. The effect of global warming will definitely be seen on some species in the water. A survey was made in which the marine life reacted significantly to the changes in water temperatures. It is expected that many species will die off or become extinct due to the increase in the temperatures of the water, whereas various other species, which prefer warmer waters, will increase tremendously. Perhaps the most disturbing changes are expected in the coral reefs that are expected to die off as an effect of global warming. The global warming is expected to cause irreversible changes in the ecosystem and the behaviour of animals.
... The general idea that solar activity variations might be linked to the orbital motion of the planets traces back to Wolf (1859), and was kept alive, throughout one and a half centuries, by a number of authors (de la Rue et al., 1872;Bollinger, 1952;Jose, 1965;Takahashi, 1968;Wood, 1972;Öpik, 1972;Condon and Schmidt, 1975;Charvatova, 1997;Zaqarashvili, 1997;Landscheidt, 1999;Palus et al., 2000;De Jager and Versteegh, 2005;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;Abreu et al., 2012;Callebaut, de Jager, and Duhau, 2012). The more specific coincidence, though, of the 11.07-year alignment cycle of the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter with the Schwabe cycle was brought to the F. Stefani f.stefani@hzdr.de 1 fore only recently by Hung (2007); Scafetta (2012); Wilson (2013) ;Okhlopkov (2016). ...
We consider a conventional $\alpha-\Omega$-dynamo model with meridional circulation that exhibits typical features of the solar dynamo, including a Hale cycle period of around 20 years and a reasonable shape of the butterfly diagram. With regard to recent ideas of a tidal synchronization of the solar cycle, we complement this model by an additional time-periodic $\alpha$-term that is localized in the tachocline region. It is shown that amplitudes of some dm/s are sufficient for this $\alpha$-term to become capable of entraining the underlying dynamo. We argue that such amplitudes of $\alpha$ may indeed be realistic, since velocities in the range of m/s are reachable, e.g., for tidally excited magneto-Rossby waves.
... By studying their intra-annual growth in relation to flooding event, the process by which a response may register tree-rings increments. high precipitation in the early growing season has positive effect on annual growth, whereas dry periods are negatively related to radial increment in tree rings (Kelly et al.1994).The sunspot numbers into were given negative signs in alternative cycles, with the sign of 1957 maximum considered positive .then, the method proposed by Jose (1965) was used, In which certain minor maxima are considered to be parts of longer cycles. ...
This paper addresses the Solar Activity cause and effect of climate change and their various impacts. Earth's climate is determined by complex interactions among the Sun, oceans, atmosphere, cry sphere, land surface and biosphere. The Sun is the principal driving force for Earth's weather and climate. The Sun's energy is distributed unevenly on Earth's surface due to the tilt of Earth's axis of rotation. Over the course of a year, the angle of rotation results in equatorial areas receiving more solar energy than those near the poles. As a result, the tropical oceans and land masses absorb a great deal more heat than the other regions of Earth. The atmosphere and oceans act together to redistribute this heat. As the equatorial waters warm air near the ocean surface, it expands rises and drifts towards the poles; cooler denser air from the subtropics and the poles moves toward the equator to take its place. This continual redistribution of heat is modified by the planet's west to east rotation and the Coriolis force associated with the planet's spherical shape, giving rise to the high jet streams and the prevailing westerly trade winds. The winds, in turn, along with Earth's rotation, drive large ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic, the Humboldt Current in the South Pacific, and the North and South Equatorial Currents. Ocean currents redistribute warmers waters away from the tropics towards the poles. The ocean and atmosphere exchange heat and water, carbon dioxide and other gases. By its mass and high heat capacity, the ocean moderates climate change from season to season and year to year. These complex, changing atmospheric and oceanic patterns help determine Earth's weather and climate. Scientists all over the world are making predictions about the ill effects of Global warming and connecting events. The effect of global warming is increasing the average temperature of the Earth. A rise in Earth's temperatures can in turn root to other alterations in the ecology, including an increasing sea level and modifying the quantity and pattern of rainfall. These modifications may boost the occurrence and concentration of severe climate events, such as floods, famines, heat waves, tornados, and twisters. Other consequences may comprise of higher or lower agricultural outputs, glacier melting, lesser summer stream flows, genus extinctions and rise in the ranges of disease vectors. As an effect of global warming species like golden toad, harlequin frog of Costa Rica has already become extinct. There are number of species that have a threat of disappearing soon as an effect of global warming. As an effect of global warming various new diseases have emerged lately. These diseases are occurring frequently due to the increase in Earths average temperature since the bacteria can survive better in elevated temperatures and even multiply faster when the conditions are favorable. The global warming is extending the distribution of mosquitoes due to the increase in humidity levels and their frequent growth in warmer atmosphere. Various diseases due to Ebola, hanta and machupo virus are expected due to warmer climates. The marine life is also very sensitive to the increase in temperatures. The effect of global warming will definitely be seen on some species in the water. A survey was made in which the marine life reacted significantly to the changes in water temperatures. It is expected that many species will die off or become extinct due to the increase in the temperatures of the water, whereas various other species, which prefer warmer waters, will increase tremendously. Perhaps the most disturbing changes are expected in the coral reefs that are expected to die off as an effect of global warming. The global warming is expected to cause irreversible changes in the ecosystem and the behaviour of animals.
... How the control is accomplished has not always been specified, but gravitational and derived tidal factors are the natural corollary of a Newtonian solar system, with a centre of mass, or barycentre, which is seen as the crucial component of any such system (Jose 1965;Hung 2007;Okhlopkov 2012;Fairbridge and Shirley 1987;Scafetta and Willson 2013), and the amplitude of the 11-yr cycle alternates between phases of high and low activity (the latter including the Maunder and other minima) according to position along an orbit determined by the solar system as a whole (Charvátová 1988). ...
The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare frequency, terrestrial weather, and components of space climate, with the risk of a resulting loss of information. The ruling (Babcock) hypothesis and its derivatives link the sunspot cycle to dynamo processes mediated by differential solar rotation, but despite 60 years of observation and analysis the ~11 yr periodicity remains difficult to model; the possible contribution of planetary dynamics is undergoing a revival. The various solar sequences that genuinely display an ~11 yr cycle stand to benefit from an understanding of its periodicity that goes beyond statistical kinship. The outcome could ironically prompt the demotion of sunspots from their dominant historical role in favour of other possible indicators of solar cyclicity, such as the solar wind flux and its isotopic signatures, even if they are less accessible.
... For instance, oscillations (pseudocycles) of ∼160, ∼90, ∼60, ∼22 and ∼11 yr are found in a series of sunspot numbers (e.g., Refs. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39]) as well as in a number of terrestrial phenomena [31,32,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53], particularly sea level [26,[54][55][56][57]. These particular periods (or periodicities) are of special interest, as they are members of the family of commensurable periods of the Jovian planets acting on the Earth and Sun [39,41,49,51,58]. ...
Variations in sea-level, based on tide gauge data (GSLTG) and on combining tide gauges and satellite data (GSLl), are subjected to singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to determine their trends and periodic or quasi-periodic components. GLSTG increases by 90 mm from 1860 to 2020, a contribution of 0.56 mm/yr to the mean rise rate. Annual to multi-decadal periods of ∼90/80, 60, 30, 20, 10/11, and 4/5 years are found in both GSLTG and GSLl. These periods are commensurable periods of the Jovian planets, combinations of the periods of Neptune (165 yr), Uranus (84 yr), Saturn (29 yr) and Jupiter (12 yr). These same periods are encountered in sea-level changes, the motion of the rotation pole RP and evolution of global pressure GP, suggesting physical links. The first SSA components comprise most of the signal variance: 95% for GSLTG, 89% for GSLl, 98% for GP and 75% for RP. Laplace derived the Liouville–Euler equations that govern the rotation and translation of the rotation axis of any celestial body. He emphasized that one must consider the orbital kinetic moments of all planets in addition to gravitational attractions and concluded that the Earth’s rotation axis should undergo motions that carry the combinations of periods of the Sun, Moon and planets. Almost all the periods found in the SSA components of sea-level (GSLl and GSLTG), global pressure (GP) and polar motion (RP), of their modulations and their derivatives can be associated with the Jovian planets. The trends themselves could be segments of components with still longer periodicities (e.g., 175 yr Jose cycle).
... Incidentally, we make another comparison. Some previous studies indicate that planets could possibly influence their host stars [47][48][49][50], which means, for example, the 11.8 years Jupiter orbital cycle and the 11 years solar cycle may have a physical relationship. As we find no relation between the smoothness cycles and planet transits, our results thus do not support this idea. ...
Many stars show activity cycles like the Sun. Kepler has gathered ∼200,000 light curves. Most of the Kepler stars only have long-cadence light curves, which limits their applicable methods. Some metrics, for example Sph, are effective for long-cadence light curves but require rotation periods. In order to improve the utilization of Kepler light curves, we introduce and use the smoothness metric. The smoothness metric is able to analyze stars without a measured rotation period and is applicable for long-cadence light curves. We test and validate our metric, resulting in the detection of the 11 years solar cycle and a 457 days cycle for our prototype star KIC 9017220. We analyze 92,084 Kepler long-cadence light curves, and as our main results, we detect 4455 magnetic activity cycle candidates, but about 20 percent are false cycles and 50 percent are lower limits of the real cycles, and we analyze their causes in detail. As an investigation into the performance of our method, we simulate disturbance factors and prove that the p-value test is invalid under certain circumstances.
... The trend (∼1008 hP), that is, the first and largest SSA component, represents more than 70% of the total variance (sv) of the original series. The sequence of the next quasiperiodic components is, in decreasing order of periods, ∼130 years (∼0.7 hP, ∼0.06% of the sv; [69]), ∼90 yr (∼21 hP, ∼1.9% of the sv; [70,71]), ∼50 yr (∼0.2 hP, ∼0.02% of the sv), ∼22 yr (∼0.50 hP, ∼0.04% of the sv; Hale cycle, [72]), ∼15 yr ( ∼0.2 hP, ∼0.02% of the sv, upper bound of the Schwabe cycle; [73], ∼4 yr (∼0.3 hP, ∼0.03% of the sv), ∼1.8 yr (∼0.3 hP, ∼0.03% of the sv), then 1 yr ( ∼93 hP, ∼8.3% of the sv), 0.5 yr (∼65 hP, ∼5.8% of the sv), 0.33 yr (∼44 hP, ∼3.9% of the sv) and 0.25 yr (∼21 hP, ∼ 1.9% of the sv) [74]. ...
The evolution of mean sea-level atmospheric pressure since 1850 is analyzed using iterative singular spectrum analysis. Maps of the main components (the trends) reveal striking symmetries of order 3 and 4. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) displays a set of three positive features, forming an almost perfect equilateral triangle. The Southern Hemisphere (SH) displays a set of three positive features arranged as an isosceles triangle, with a possible fourth (weaker) feature. This geometry can be modeled as the Taylor–Couette flow of mode 3 (NH) or 4 (SH). The remarkable regularity and three-order symmetry of the NH triskeles occurs despite the lack of cylindrical symmetry of the northern continents. The stronger intensity and larger size of features in the SH is linked to the presence of the annular Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), which monitors the periodic reinforcement and weakening of the circumpolar vortex; it is a stationary mode. These components represent 70% of the variance in total pressure since 1850 and are stable in both time and space. In the remaining 30% of the variance, we have extracted quasi-periodical components with periods larger than 1 year (2% of the variance) and a harmonic sequence of the 1-year period (20% of the variance).
... The configuration of the solar system's four outer planets has a periodicity of about 178.7 years (62 270 days). Jose came to this conclusion (Jose 1965) by examining calculations of the solar orbit around the barycenter of the solar system. The trajectory of the Sun is considerably influenced by massive and distant planets. ...
Mercury’s motion has been studied using numerical methods in the framework of a model including only the non-relativistic Newtonian gravitational interactions of the solar system: eight major planets and Pluto in translation around the Sun. Since the true trajectory of Mercury is an open, non-planar curve, special attention to the exact definition of the advance of Mercury’s perihelion has been given. For this purpose, the concepts of an extended and a geometrical perihelion have been introduced. In addition, for each orbital period, a mean ellipse was fitted to the trajectory of Mercury. I have shown that the perihelion advance of Mercury deduced from the behavior of the Laplace–Runge–Lenz vector, as well as from the extended and geometrical perihelion advance depend on the fitting time interval and for intervals of the order of 1 000 years converge to a value of 532.1″\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^{\prime \prime }$$\end{document} per century. The behavior of the perihelia, either extended or geometrical, is strongly impacted by the influence of Jupiter. The advance of the extended perihelion depends on the time step used in the calculations, while the advance of the geometrical perihelion and that deduced by the rotation of the Laplace–Runge–Lenz vector depends only slightly on it.
... Cycles featuring solar variations, as identified from Greenland ice cores, have stimulated a discussion about the possible planetary modulation of solar irradiation in the solar system. Jose (1965) identified a correlation among planets, i.e., solar barycenter motion with a 179-year cycle. Zhenqiu and Zhisen (1980) analyzed planetary conjunctions and climate in China and estimated minimum temperatures for the years 1982, 2163 and 2344 A.D. Numerous other investigations have elucidated the relationships among planetary cycles, solar irradiance, and climate variations (Fairbridge and Sanders, 1987;Hoyt and Schatten 1993;Satterley, A. K. 1996;Charvátová 2000;Liu et al., 2011;Abreu et al., 2012;Scafetta 2012Scafetta , 2016McCracken et al., 2014;Scafetta et al., 2016: Steinhilber andBeer (2013)) studied solar irradiance over a cycle of 9400 years and identified long cycles of 150, 208, 350, 500, 1000, 1450, and 2200 years; the authors also computed a Dalton-type minimum at 2100 A.D. Wavelet spectrum analyses of time series of the TSI, sunspots and solar position have revealed close relations among the TSI variation, solar position oscillation and elliptical orbits of the Jovian planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) (Yndestad and Solheim 2017). ...
This study utilizes time-series data devised to measure solar irradiation, sea surface temperatures, and temperatures in the lower atmosphere to gain a better understanding of how gravitational effects from the moon and Jovian planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) influence solar activity and climatic conditions on Earth. Then, standard statistical methods are used to determine the degree of correlation among these time series and construct a Jovian gravitational model. The study reveals a direct relationship between JSUN perihelion coincidences and TSI amplitude variations in cycles up to 4,450 years. The forced solar accumulation of heat in oceans introduces a new phase relation between solar forced cycles and new climate variation. Earth’s axis nutation cycles have coincidences with lunar nodal tide cycles and lunar forced sea surface temperature cycle periods up to 446 years. Earth’s temperature variation shows coincidence with constructive and destructive interference between lunar-forced and accumulated solar-forced temperature variations in oceans. Upcoming events have a computed modern temperature maximum in 2025 and a deep minimum in 2070. Interference between solar-forced temperature cycles of 333,2142, and 4,450 years and a lunar-forced temperature cycle of 445 years indicates that “The Little Ice Age” covers a total period of 820 years from 1330 to 2150 A.D. and an upcoming temporary cold climate period from 2070 to 2150.
... For instance, oscillations (pseudo-cycles) of ∼160, ∼90, ∼60, ∼22 and ∼11 yr are found in series of sunspot numbers (e.g. Gleissberg (1944); Jose (1965); Coles et al (1980); Charvatova and Strestik (1991); Usoskin (2017); Le Mouël et al. (2020b); Courtillot et al (2021)) as well as in a number of terrestrial phenomena (Wood and Lovett 1974;Mörth and Schlamminger 1979;Schlesinger and Ramankutty 1994;Lau and Weng 1995;Scafetta 2010;Courtillot et al 2013;Scafetta 2016;Lopes et al. 2017;Le Mouël et al. 2019a,b, 2020aScafetta et al. 2020;Cionco et al 2021;Lopes et al. 2021;Scafetta 2021;Lopes et al. 2022), in particular sea-level (Jevrejeva et al. 2006;Chambers et al. 2012;Chen et al. 2014;Wahl and Chambers 2015;Le Mouël et al. 2021). These particular periods (or periodicities) are of special interest, as they are members of the family of commensurable periods of the Jovian planets acting on Earth and Sun (Mörth and Schlamminger 1979;Scafetta et al. 2020;Courtillot et al 2021;Lopes et al. 2021;Bank and Scafetta 2022). ...
Variations in sea-level, based on tide gauge data (GSLTG) and on combining tide gauges and satellite data (GSLl) are subjected to singular spectrum analysis (SSA), to determine their trends and periodic or quasi-periodic components. GLSTG increases by 90 mm from 1860 to 2020, a contribution of 0.56 mm/yr to the mean rise rate. Annual to multi-decadal periods of ~90/80, 60, 30, 20, 10/11, and 4/5 years are found in both GSLTG and GSLl. These periods are commensurable periods of the Jovian planets, combinations of the periods of Neptune (165 yr), Uranus (84 yr), Saturn (29 yr) and Jupiter (12 yr). These same periods are encountered in sea-level changes, motion of the rotation pole RP and evolution of global pressure GP, suggesting physical links. The first SSA components comprise most of the signal variance: 95% for GSLTG, 89% for GSLI, 98% for GP, 75% for RP. Laplace derived the Liouville-Euler equations that govern the rotation and translation of the rotation axis of any celestial body. He emphasized that one must consider the orbital kinetic moments of all planets in addition to gravitational attractions and concluded that the Earth's rotation axis should undergo motions that carry the combinations of periods of the Sun, Moon and planets. Almost all the periods found in the SSA components of sea-level (GSLl and GSLTG), global pressure (GP) and polar motion (RP), of their modulations and their derivatives can be associated with the Jovian planets. It would be of interest to search for data series with longer time spans, that could allow one to test whether the trends themselves could be segments of components with still longer periodicities (e.g. 175 yr Jose cycle).
... which is associated with the mean-size Meanwhile, center of Sun is moving around the aforementioned barycenter on quasi-periodic trajectory (less than 2.19 R Sun from barycenter (Jose 1965), where R Sun is the radius of Sun). ...
In this paper, we present a new mathematical approach or solving procedure for analysis of the Sundman's inequality (for estimating the moment of inertia of the Solar system's configuration) with the help of Lagrange-Jacobi relation, under additional assumption of decreasing of the total angular momentum close to the zero absolute magnitude in the final state of Solar system in a future. By assuming such the final state for Solar system, we have estimated the mean-size of Solar system R via analysis of the Sundman's inequality. So, to answer the question "Does the ninth planet exist in Solar system?", one should meet the two mandatory criteria for such the ninth planet, first is that it should have the negligible magnitude of inclination of its orbit with respect to the invariable plane. The second condition is that the orbit of the ninth planet should be located within the estimation for the mean-size of Solar system R.
... The modulation period (~90 years) and both carrier periods (~7 and~14 years) allow for attributing the frequency modulations seen in Figure 2a to the Sun. Indeed, the 90-year period is the 1:2 superharmonic of the known cycle of the~180-year period of the Sun rotation around the barycenter of the Solar System [26][27][28], and the~7-year carrier period is a period that arises from the difference between the annual frequency and the frequency of the earlier-mentioned Chandler wobble (1/12 − 1/14 = 1/84 month −1 ≡ 1/7 year −1 ). Thẽ 14-year carrier period is just the doubled period. ...
It is widely accepted to believe that humanity is mainly responsible for the worldwide temperature growth during the period of instrumental meteorological observations. This paper aims to demonstrate that it is not so simple. Using a wavelet analysis on the example of the time series of the global mean near-surface air temperature created at the American National Climate Data Center (NCDC), some complex structures of inter-annual to multidecadal global mean temperature variations were discovered. The origin of which seems to be better attributable to the Chandler wobble in the Earth’s Pole motion, the Luni-Solar nutation, and the solar activity cycles. Each of these external forces is individually known to climatologists. However, it is demonstrated for the first time that responses of the climate system to these external forces in their integrity form a kind of polyphony superimposed on a general warming trend. Certainly, the general warming trend as such remains to be unconsidered. However, its role is not very essential in the timescale of a few decades. Therefore, it is this polyphony that will determine climate evolution in the nearest future, i.e., during the time most important for humanity currently.
... There are two main viewpoints: 1. The grand solar minima are catastrophic non-regular events [34,35], or 2. They are quasi regular events, affected by outer for the Sun factors (for example Solar system bari-center variations [36] and gravitational-tidal forcing from the planets [37]. Although the "planet hypothesis" is not acceptable by the majority of researchers due to the absence of strong physical arguments, there are many supporting studies during the last two decades where the physical concept is essentially improved (see for example [37,38]. ...
In this study, the results from the analysis of annual ring widths (‘Dm’) time series of two “very sensitive” to the climate and solar–climate relationships of long lived European beech (Fagus sylvatica) samples (on age of 209 ± 1 and 245 ± 5 years correspondingly) are discussed. Both series are characterized by very good expressed and relating to the solar magnetic Hale cycle 20–22-year oscillations. A good coincidence between the changes of ‘Dm’ and the growth or fading of the solar magnetic cycle is found. The transition effects at the beginning and ending of the grand Dalton (1793–1833) and Gleissberg minima (1898–1933) are very clearly visible in the annual tree ring width data for the one of beech samples. Some of these effects are also detected in the second sample. The problem for the possible “lost” sunspot cycle at the end of 18th century is also discussed. A prediction for a possible “phase catastrophe” during the future Zurich sunspot cycles 26 and 27 between 2035–2040 AD as well as for general precipitation upward and temperature fall tendencies in Central Bulgaria, more essential after 2030 AD, are brought forth.
... During disordered states deep solar minima have appeared, and during orderly periods long-term maxima of solar activity are possible. The pattern repeats with a period of ~179 years: the Jose period [104]. In the last millennium chaotic patterns were present 1270-1350, 1430-1520, 1620-1710, and 1787-1843. ...
... Jose [23] first suggested that solar activity on a longer timescale can be affected by the motion of large planets of the solar system. This suggestion was later developed by many researchers (see for example [24][25][26][27]) who found that the Sun, as a central star of the solar system, is a subject to the inertial motion around he centerof mass, or barycentre, of the solar system induced by the motions of the other planets (mostly large planets, e.g. ...
Daily ephemeris of Sun-Earth distances in two millennia (600–2600) showed significant decreases in February–June by up to 0.005 au in millennium M1 (600–1600) and 0.011au in millennium M2 (1600–2600). The Earth’s aphelion in M2 is shorter because shifted towards mid-July and longer because shifted to mid January naturally explaining two-millennial variations (Hallstatt’s cycle) of the baseline solar magnetic field measured from Earth. The S-E distance variations are shown imposed by shifts of Sun’s position towards the spring equinox imposed by the gravitation of large planets, or solar inertial motion (SIM). Daily variations of total solar irradiance (TSI) calculated with these S-E distances revealed TSI increases in February–June by up to 10–12 W / m 2 in M1 and 14–18 W / m 2 in M2. There is also positive imbalance detected in the annual TSI magnitudes deposited to Earth in millennium M2 compared to millennium M1: up to 1.3 W / m 2 , for monthly, and up to 20–25 W / m 2 for daily TSI magnitudes. This imbalance confirms an ascending phase of the current TSI (Hallstatt’s) cycle in M2. The consequences for terrestrial atmosphere of this additional solar forcing induced by the annual TSI imbalances are evaluated. The implications of extra solar forcing for two modern grand solar minima in M2 are also discussed.
... Os períodos denominados de Grandes Mínimos são intervalos prolongados de tempo com atividade solar bastante reduzida (p.ex., EDDY, 1976;STUIVER e QUAY, 1981;SOLANKI et al., 2004;USOSKIN, 2008). A causa destes períodos ainda é amplamente discutida na comunidade científica, tanto entre grupos que defendem a teoria do dínamo solar (CHOUDHURI 1992;SCHÜSSLER et al. 1994;SCHMITT et al. 1996;OSSENDRIJVER 2000;WEISS e TOBIAS 2000;MININNI et al. 2001;CHARBONNEAU 2001;MIYAHARA et al. 2006b;MOSS et al. 2008;CHARBONNEAU 2010;KÄPYLÄ et al. 2016) quanto grupos que defendem a hipótese planetária (WOLF, 1859;JOSE, 1965;CHARVÁTOVÁ, 1997CHARVÁTOVÁ, , 2000CHARVÁTOVÁ, , 2009JAVARAIAH, 2005;SHIRLEY, 2006; WOLFF e PATRONE, 2010; PERRYMAN e SCHULZE-HARTUNG, 2011) que é a hipótese de que a gravitação dos planetas do sistema solar tem algum tipo de influência na atividade do Sol . Trabalhos como o de VOSS et al. (1996), EDDY (1977), SOLANKI et al. (2004), STEINHILBER et al. (2012), entre outros, detectaram grande quantidade de períodos de mínima atividade utilizando dados do radioisótopo 14 C e 10 Be. ...
his study investigates, through computational modeling, the climatic effects of a possible scenario of prolonged solar minimum of activity, such as the Maunder Minimum, and the increase of CO2 in the terrestrial climate system. This research is conducted using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which is the state-of-the-art in climate modeling, and is also one of the CMIP/IPCC models. The results reinforce that a future scenario of a prolonged solar minimum of activity has greater regional climate impacts than global ones. The effects of a future prolonged minimum of solar activity indicate that this scenario is only capable of slowing down the temperature increase caused by the increased concentration of CO2 in the earth's atmosphere. The climate change caused by these scenarios suggests that the most affected regions in South America, even with the deceleration of temperature increase, are northern and northeastern Brazil.
... Další práce ukazují, že ve sluneční aktivitě jsou zřetelně obsaženy informace o poloze geometrického středu Slunce vůči těžišti celé Sluneční soustavy (barycentru). Jose (1965) našel základní periodu opakování podobné polohy Slunce vůči planetám 178,7 let a Diamantides (1997) toto nezávisle potvrdil statistickou analýzou Wolfových čísel. Charvátová (1988Charvátová ( , 1990Charvátová ( , 1997 navíc ukázala, že v období, kdy se střed Slunce nachází v blízkosti středu Sluneční soustavy a velké planety jsou rovnoměrně rozmístěny okolo Slunce, je sluneční aktivita v minimu. ...
Abstrakt Nalezli jsme korelaci mezi sluneční aktivitou (měsíčními Wolfovými čísly) a slapy na Slunci (časově vyhlazené derivace slapového potenciálu, vztažené k barycentru celé sluneční soustavy). Oba časové průběhy sluneční aktivity a odvozeného slapového potenciálu mají shodné pozice maxim, minim, kmiten i uzlů a podobnou obálku. Na tomto základě jsme schopni predikovat sluneční aktivitu. Za předpokladu, že solární slapy, vztažené k barycentru sluneční soustavy, jsou hlavním řídícím mechanismem sluneční aktivity, jsme schopni spočítat střední periodu rotace barycentra okolo středu Slunce a následně odhadnout množství dosud neobjevených a nekompenzovaných hmot ve sluneční soustavě za dráhou Pluta (3.E25 až 5.E24 kg).
... where R Sun is the radius of Sun with mass M Sun (the aforementioned restriction takes into account the Roche limit for fluid satellite for the reason at distance of 6-8 R Sun even the solid satellite appears to be transformed to the fluid state during satellite's fly-by through the hot atmosphere and corona of Sun). Meanwhile, centre of Sun is known to be moving near the barycenter along the quasi-periodic trajectory (less than 2.19R Sun from barycenter [20], it means that barycenter is distant from surface of Sun sometimes not less than R Sun where R Sun ∼ 696 · 10 6 m). Taking into account the restriction (*) above, it gives the maximal distance of safe approach to the surface of Sun during satellite's fly-by at the worst scenario (in case of alignment of all the radius-vectors "barycenter vs. ...
In this paper, we present a new approach for solving equations of motion for the trapped motion of the infinitesimal mass m in case of the elliptic restricted problem of three bodies (ER3BP) (primaries \(M_\mathrm{Sun}\) and \(m_\mathrm{planet}\) are rotating around their common centre of masses on elliptic orbit): a new type of the solving procedure is implemented here for solving equations of motion of the infinitesimal mass m in the vicinity of the barycenter of masses \(M_\mathrm{Sun}\) and \(m_\mathrm{planet}\). Meanwhile, the system of equations of motion has been successfully explored with respect to the existence of analytical way for presentation of the approximated solution. As the main result, equations of motion are reduced to the system of three nonlinear ordinary differential equations: (1) equation for coordinate x is proved to be a kind of appropriate equation for the forced oscillations during a long-time period of quasi-oscillations (with a proper restriction to the mass \(m_\mathrm{planet}\)), (2) equation for coordinate y reveals that motion is not stable with respect to this coordinate and condition \(y \sim 0\) would be valid if only we choose zero initial conditions, and (3) equation for coordinate z is proved to be Riccati ODE of the first kind. Thus, infinitesimal mass m should escape from vicinity of common centre of masses \(M_\mathrm{Sun}\) and \(m_\mathrm{planet}\) as soon as the true anomaly f increases insofar. The main aim of the current research is to point out a clear formulation of solving algorithm or semi-analytical procedure with partial cases of solutions to the system of equations under consideration. Here, semi-analytical solution should be treated as numerical algorithm for a system of ordinary differential equations (ER3BP) with well-known code for solving to be presented in the final form.
... In order to understand the nature of the super-grand millennial (Hallstatt's) cycle, one needs to combine Kepler's laws for planetary orbits with the gravitational forces of the planets (mainly by Jupiter, Neptune, Saturn and Uranus) on the Sun and these orbits, called the solar inertial motion (SIM) (Jose, 1965;Fairbridge et al. 1987;Charvatova 1988Charvatova , 2000Palus et al. 2007). ...
In this study we overview recent advances with prediction of solar activity using as a proxy solar background magnetic field and detection of grand solar cycles of about 400 years separated by grand solar minima (GSMs).The previous GSM known as the Maunder minimum was recorded from 1645 to 1715. The terrestrial temperature during Maunder Minimum was reduced by up to 1.0C that led to freezing rivers, cold winters and summers. The modern GSM started in 2020 and will last for three solar cycles until 2053. During this GSM two processes will affect the input of solar radiation: a decrease of solar activity and an increase in total solar irradiance because of solar inertial motion (SIM). For evaluation of the latter this study uses daily ephemeris of the Sun-Earth (SE) distances in two millennia from 600 to 2600 showing significant decreases of SE distances in the first 6 months of a year by 0.005 au in 600 to 1600 and by more than 0.01 au in 1600 to 2600 with consequent increases of SE distances in the second halves of a year. Although, these increases are not fully symmetric in the second millennium (1600 to 2600), during which the longest SE distances are gradually shifted from 21 June to 12 July while the shortest ones from 21 December to 12 January. These distance variations impose significant increases of solar irradiance in the first six months of each year in the two millennia, which are not fully offset by the solar radiation decreases in the last six months in millennium 1600 to 2600. This misbalance creates an annual surplus of solar radiation to be processed by the terrestrial atmosphere and ocean environments that can lead to an increase of terrestrial temperature. We estimate that decrease of solar activity during GSM combined with its increase imposed by SIM will lead to a reduction of terrestrial temperature during the modern GSM to the levels of 1700.
... Apart from the cycles, the dominating part of the curve is the gradual movement of the BIE northwards for more than 200 years (1800-2018).Another interesting point is that the ice minima in 1760 and 1940 are 180 years apart. This may be related to the José cycle of 179 years[200], which is the fundamental orbital repetition period of the Jovian planets and is also synchronized with the sidereal orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Mars and Jupiter as well as the Schwabe (11.1 yrs), Hale (22.2 yrs) and Gleissberg (90 yrs) periods[201]. ...
... We appeal to solar system dynamics for an explanation of this oddity. For about one Mars year, between 1988 and 1990, the Sun experienced an unusual period of retrograde orbital motion about the solar system barycenter (Jose, 1965;Javaraiah, 2005; see also Shirley, 2015). As shown in Figure 21 of MS17, the phasing of the dL/dt waveform with respect to the annual cycle was substantially altered, both during this episode and during the years leading up to and following this episode, such that a nearly invariant phase relationship was maintained in these years. ...
The Martian global dust storm (GDS) of 2018 began soon after the southern spring equinox, which is quite early in the dust storm season. The origins of early‐season GDS, including those of 1977, 2001, and now 2018, have been mysterious, as atmospheric dynamical investigations and numerical modeling experiments have been unable to explain or reproduce the timing of these events. We employ a newly expanded catalog of historic Martian GDS for our investigation, which includes 2018 and the telescopically observed equinoctial dust storms of 1877 and 1909. All of the GDS of this catalog took place either (1) when orbit‐spin coupling torques on the Martian atmosphere were near peak values or (2) near times when the orbit‐spin coupling torques were changing most rapidly. The second category, here termed “Mode 2,” includes all six of the equinoctial GDS of the historic record, including 2018. Recognition of the existence of two triggering modes for GDS occurrence leads to a significant improvement in temporal resolution for both hindcasting and forecasting. Orbit‐spin coupling now provides explanations for the late‐season inception dates of the 1924 and 1973 storms, as well as for the equinoctial events. We provide conditional forecasts, with sub‐seasonal time resolution, for GDS occurrence and non‐occurrence in Mars years 35 through 40. We introduce a detailed working hypothesis for the genesis of equinoctial GDS that may be validated through numerical modeling. The characteristic timescale for frictional damping of an intensified Martian Hadley circulation is estimated to be O(10) sols.
This paper proposes a joint analysis of variations of global sea-level pressure (SLP) and of Earth’s rotation (RP), expressed as the coordinates of the rotation pole (m1, m2) and length of day (lod). We retain iterative singular spectrum analysis (iSSA) as the main tool to extract the trend, periods, and quasi periods in the data time series. SLP components are a weak trend, seven quasi-periodic or periodic components (∼130, 90, 50, 22, 15, 4, 1.8 years), an annual cycle, and its first three harmonics. These periods are characteristic of the space-time evolution of the Earth’s rotation axis and are present in many characteristic features of solar and terrestrial physics. The amplitudes of the annual SLP component and its three first harmonics decrease from 93 hPa for the annual to 21 hPa for the third harmonic. In contrast, the components with pseudo-periods longer than a year range between 0.2 and 0.5 hPa. We focus mainly on the annual and, to a lesser extent, the semi-annual components. The annual RP and SLP components have a phase lag of 152 days (half the Euler period). Maps of the first three components of SLP (that together comprise 85% of the data variance) reveal interesting symmetries. The trend is very stable and forms a triskeles structure that can be modeled as Taylor–Couette flow of mode 3. The annual component is characterized by a large negative anomaly extending over Eurasia in the NH summer (and the opposite in the NH winter) and three large positive anomalies over Australia and the southern tips of South America and South Africa in the SH spring (and the opposite in the SH autumn), forming a triskeles. The semi-annual component is characterized by three positive anomalies (an irregular triskeles) in the NH spring and autumn (and the opposite in the NH summer and winter), and in the SH spring and autumn by a strong stable pattern consisting of three large negative anomalies forming a clear triskeles within the 40–60∘ annulus formed by the southern oceans. A large positive anomaly centered over Antarctica, with its maximum displaced toward Australia, and a smaller one centered over Southern Africa, complement the pattern. Analysis of iSSA components of global sea level pressure shows a rather simple spatial distribution with the principal forcing factor being changes in parameters of the Earth’s rotation pole and velocity. The flow can probably best be modeled as a set of coaxial cylinders arranged in groups of three (triskeles) or four and controlled by Earth topography and continent/ocean boundaries. Flow patterns suggested by maps of the three main iSSA components of SLP (trend, annual, and semi-annual) are suggestive of Taylor–Couette flow. The envelopes of the annual components of SLP and RP are offset by four decades, and there are indications that causality is present in that changes in Earth rotation axis lead force pressure variations.
Abstrakt Za období posledních cca 660 mil. let máme geologické záznamy jak o změnách klimatu na Zemi, tak o změnách sluneční aktivity. Nejdelší známé klimatické cykly mají délky cca 150 mil. let a chladné periody velice dobře časově korelují s orogeny a současně erozními periodami. Za posledních cca 5 mil. let je velice dobře zdokumentováno střídání dob ledových a meziledových s periodami cca 41 tis. let a cca 96 tis. let. Kromě galaktických vlivů jsou ve sluneční aktivitě a tím i klimatu pozorovatelné rázové periody planet a to od nejdelší periody 6256 let, 1020-1040 let, 208 let, 178,8 let, 88 let a 59,577 let. Zvláštní postavení má 62,5 letý cyklus excentricity Jupitera, který se promítá do všech klimatických parametrů na Zemi-teploty, AMO, PDO, LOD, pozic tlakových útvarů v atmosféře, směru a velikosti proudění vody v oceánech nebo srážkách. Pozorovaný nárůst teplot na Zemi je možno vysvětlit akumulací slunečního záření v horninách a největší sluneční aktivitou za posledních cca 1000 let. Zpoždění nárůstu teplot za sluneční aktivitou je dáno malou tepelnou vodivostí hornin a tím i velkým poločasem akumulace/radiace cca 270 let. Koncentraci CO 2 v atmosféře určuje zejména dynamická výměna plynů mezi oceánem a atmosférou na hladině a dosud rostoucí střední teplota oceánů, závislá na sluneční aktivitě. Tato koncentrace závisí na anomální teplotě jako její integrál a je proto také fázově zpožděná oproti globálním teplotám, a to až o desítky let. Dnešní pozorovaný nárůst koncentrace CO 2 je tedy možno fyzikálně vysvětlit jako dvojnásobně zpožděný vliv slunečního záření, které mělo počátek svého maxima po Malé době ledové přibližně po roce 1850 a vrcholu dosáhlo okolo roku 1958.
Abstract
For the period of the last 660 million years, we have geological records of both climate changes on Earth and changes in solar activity. The longest known climate cycles are approximately 150 million years long, and cold periods are very well correlated in time with orogens and at the same time with erosional periods. Over the past 5 million years, the alternation of ice ages and interglacials with periods of approximately 41,000 years is very well documented. years and approx. 96 thousand flight. In addition to galactic influences, shock periods of the planets can be observed in the solar activity and thus the climate, from the longest period of 6256 years, 1020-1040 years, 208 years, 178.8 years, 88 years and 59.577 years. The 62.5-year eccentricity cycle of Jupiter has a special position, which is reflected in all climatic parameters on Earth – temperature, AMO, PDO, LOD, positions of pressure structures in the atmosphere, direction and magnitude of water flow in the oceans or precipitation. The observed increase in temperatures on Earth can be explained by the accumulation of solar radiation in rocks and the greatest solar activity in the last 1000 years. The delay in the increase in temperatures due to solar activity is due to the low thermal conductivity of rocks and thus the long half-life of accumulation/radiation of about 270 years. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is mainly determined by the dynamic exchange of gases between the ocean and the atmosphere on the surface and the still increasing average temperature of the oceans, dependent on solar activity. This concentration depends on the anomalous temperature as its integral and is therefore also phase-delayed with respect to global temperatures by up to decades. Today's observed increase in CO2 concentration can therefore be physically explained as a doubly delayed effect of solar radiation, which had the beginning of its maximum after the Little Ice Age approximately after 1850 and reached its peak around 1958.
The essential development of a new mathematical ansatz for estimating the size of the solar system with help of Sundman inequality via Lagrange–Jacobi relation has been implemented in this research. Mean size R of the solar system has been estimated using Sundman inequality at the expanding scenario of the solar system (with existing planets’ configuration) for the obtained partial class of solutions for this type of differential inequality by assuming constant total angular momentum for the entire dynamical configuration. The obvious physically reasonable assumption is that the solar system will increase its size during evolution in the future (due to losses of the total angular momentum via tidal interactions), albeit we can assume the compressing scenario.
The evolution of mean sea-level atmospheric pressure since 1850 is analyzed using singular spectrum analysis. Maps of the main components (the trends) reveal striking symmetries of order 3 and 4. The northern hemisphere (NH) displays a set of three positive features, forming an almost perfect equilateral triangle. The southern hemisphere (SH) displays a set of three positive features arranged as an isosceles triangle, with a possible fourth (weaker) feature. This geometry can be modeled as Taylor-Couette flow of mode 3 (NH) or 4 (SH). The remarkable regularity and order three symmetry of the NH triskel occurs despite the lack of cylindrical symmetry of the northern continents. The stronger intensity and larger size of features in the SH is linked to the presence of the annular AAO. In addition to the dominant trends, quasi-periodic components of 130, 90, 50, 22, 15, 4, 1.8, 1, 0.5, 0.33, and 0.25 years, i.e. the Jose, Gleissberg, Hale and Schwabe cycles, the annual cycle and its first three harmonics are identified.
In this paper I examine whether external forcing of the solar dynamo on long timescales can produce detectable signal in the form of long term modulation of the magnetic cycle. This task is motivated in part by some recent proposals (Abreu et al., 2012; Astron. Ap., 548, A88; Stefani et al., 2021; Solar Phys., 296, 88), whereby modulation of the solar activity cycle on centennial and millennial timescales, as recovered from the cosmogenic radioisotope record, is attributed to perturbation of the tachocline driven by planetary orbital motions. Working with a two-dimensional mean-field-like kinematic dynamo model of the Babcock-Leighton variety, I show that such an external forcing signal may be detectable in principle but is likely to be obliterated by other internal sources of fluctuations, in particular stochastic perturbations of the dynamo associated with convective turbulence, unless a very efficient amplification mechanism is at play. I also examine the ability of external tidal forcing to synchronize an otherwise autonomous, internal dynamo operating at a nearby frequency. Synchronization is readily achieved, and turns out to be very robust to the introduction of stochastic noise, but requires very high forcing amplitudes, again highlighting the critical need for a powerful amplification mechanism.
We introduce here in the current research the revisiting of approach to the dynamics of Sun center relative to barycenter of Solar system by using self-resulting photo-gravitational force of the Sun as the main reason of such motion. In case of slowly moving in the direction outwards with respect to the initial position of barycenter of Solar system (together with the current position of Solar system barycenter, of course) with average established velocity not less than 1050 Km/day, we should especially note that hierarchical configuration of Solar system will be preferably the same during this motion. As the main findings, we have suggested algorithm how to move towards stars using Solar self-resulting photo-gravitational force. The obvious physically reasonable assumption is that the Solar system will have been increasing its size during the evolution in a future (due to losses of the total angular momentum taking into account the tidal phenomena).
Efforts to place recent climate observations in a long-term context have been driven by concerns about whether the global warming trend of the 20th century is part of natural climate variability or whether it is linked to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A new perspective on the climate and its changes is offered, highlighting those that occur due to natural cycles, which are generally not widespread. With the historical background on how the climate varied in the past, statistical research was conducted using time series techniques and spectral/harmonic analysis (Fourier series and spectrograms), which allowed the determination of periodic natural phenomena and their magnitudes in national variations of temperature. It was identified that the air surface temperature in Brazil expresses cycles of 4 years (oceanic-atmospheric origin related to ENSO), 33 years (Brückner cycles, lunar-solar origin) and 82 years (lower Gleissberg cycle, solar origin). Based on an alternative oscillatory model that incorporates such natural cycles, future projections of the air temperature in the country were prepared. For the year 2100, it is predicted that the air temperature in Brazil may reach the value of +1.8 ± 0.6 °C, according to the natural oscillatory model. In comparison, conventional models typically used by the IPCC indicate, by the end of the century, an increase of: +2.9 ± 1.2 °C (RCP4.5 model, with mitigation); +3.9 °C (SRES A1 model); and +5.7 ± 1.7 °C (RCP8.5 model, without mitigation). The most extreme values of conventional models reach proportions up to 4 times greater than the results obtained in the alternative model provided here. Analyzing the adherence of the models, it is concluded that the conventional models are overestimating and exaggerating a warming rate in Brazil that, in reality, has not been observed. The proposed natural oscillatory model, which has a high correlation with the data observed so far, indicates an increase in temperature in Brazil that may reach a modest value of +0.8 °C in 2040. For the same year, the SRES A1 and RCP8.5 models indicate values around +2.0 °C – which represents more than double of the projection based on natural climate cycles. Based on the projections that indicate a moderate warming, not so exaggerated, a new perspective of a less terrifying future climate is offered. In a context in which pernicious alarmist discourses predominate, spreading scenarios of apocalyptic global warming, it is hoped that new pondered views could help to appease the level of concern that today, has culminated in undesirable side effects - especially the high levels of eco-anxiety that has afflicted significant portions of society.
In this paper, we present a new mathematical approach or solving procedure for analysis of the Sundman inequality (for estimating the moment of inertia of the Solar system configuration) with the help of Lagrange-Jacobi relation, under additional assumption of decreasing of the total angular momentum close to the zero absolute magnitude in the final state of Solar system in a future. By assuming such the final state for Solar system, we have estimated the mean-size of Solar system R via analysis of the Sundman inequality. So, to answer the question "Does the ninth planet exist in Solar system?", one should meet the two mandatory criteria for such the ninth planet, first is that it should have the negligible magnitude of inclination of its orbit with respect to the invariable plane. The second condition is that the orbit of the ninth planet should be located within the estimation for the mean-size of Solar system R.
In general, although the climate during the Holocene has been warm, nine well-recognized cold events with an average time interval of more than one thousand years have been highlighted. The forcing mechanism of these cold events with millennial-scale cycles is still widely discussed. In the present study, two different Solar System dynamical processes collectively driven by all eight planets were considered together: the solar inertial motion and the combined planetary tidal force acting on the Sun. In this context, an attempt was made to analyze their effects on solar activity and Holocene North Atlantic cold events at the millennial-scale. These two Solar System dynamical processes were proxied by the distance between the Sun and the Solar System barycenter (DS–S) and the intensity of the combined planetary tidal force (IP–S), respectively. Using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, time series data of Solar System dynamics proxies (i.e., DS–S, and IP–S), solar activity proxies (i.e., ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be), and a proxy of Holocene North Atlantic cold events (i.e., hematite-stained grains) were decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). After extracting IMF components containing millennial-scale cycles, a correlation analysis was performed. As a result, it was found that the solar inertial motion had ∼2,300- and ∼1,000-year cycles and the combined planetary tidal force had a ∼1,500-year cycle, while the solar activity and Holocene North Atlantic cold events proxies had ∼2,300-, ∼1,500-, and ∼1,000-year cycles, respectively. The correlation analysis revealed that the millennial-scale periodic components of the two Solar System dynamics proxies were largely correlated with that of solar activity and Holocene North Atlantic cold events, suggesting that the solar inertial motion and combined planetary tidal force may work together to impact solar activity, and thus the climate in the North Atlantic. Consequently, solar activity was weaker and the North Atlantic temperature was cooler when the Sun was far from the Solar System barycenter and/or the combined planetary tidal force was weakened. This might indicate the involvement of Solar System dynamics on Holocene North Atlantic cold events at the millennial-scale.
In 1799, Laplace derived the system of differential equations (now called Liouville-Euler) that fully describes the motions of the rotation axis of any celestial body. Laplace showed that only the gravitational forces and kinetic moments from other celestial bodies influence the rotation of any one of them. The equations involve three Euler angles that specify the motions of a body's rotation axis; they can be reduced to a system of two equations for the inclination and time derivative of the declination of the rotation axis. Laplace showed the existence of a forced annual oscillation and the so-called free Chandler wobble. Most current theories retain only two Euler angles and invoke an elastic Earth to match observations. We analyze the much longer time series of polar motion (coordinates m1 and m2 of the rotation pole at the Earth's surface) now available, in order to further explore phenomena that Laplace could not investigate, given the dearth of data in his time. We use singular spectral analysis (SSA) to extract components of the time series. The first three components (trend or Markowitz drift, forced annual oscillation and free Chandler oscillation) account for 73% of the variance of polar motion. Under the current theory, their modulation is thought to be a response to reorganization of oceanic and atmospheric masses. However, the periods of the first six SSA components of polar motion have been encountered in previous studies of sunspots and in the ephemerids of Jovian planets. We also analyze the derivatives of the envelopes of the three SSA components of polar motion. Again, most of these components have periods and modulations that correspond to the ephemeris (periods and combinations of commensurable periods) of Jovian planets. Examples include 171.5 yr (the Jose cycle linked to Neptune), 90 yr (the Gleissberg cycle linked to Uranus), 40 yr (a commensurable period linked to the Jovian planets), 22 yr, 11 yr (Jupiter, Sun), 60 yr, 30 yr (Saturn). Fig. 3 can be considered as the central result of the paper. It shows that the sum of forces of the four Jovian planets matches in a striking way the polar motion reconstructed with SSA components (the Markowitz trend removed). All our results argue that significant parts of Earth's polar motion are a consequence (rather than a cause) of the evolution of planetary ephemerids. The Sun's activity and many geophysical indices show the same signatures, including many climate indices. Two different mechanisms (causal chains) are likely at work: a direct one from the Jovian Planets to Earth, another from planetary motions to the solar dynamo; variations in solar activity would in turn influence meteorological and climatic phenomena. Given the remarkable coincidence between the quasi-periods of many of these phenomena, it is reasonable to assume that both causal chains are simultaneously at work. In that sense, it is not surprising to find the signatures of the Schwabe, Hale and Gleissberg cycles in many terrestrial phenomena, reflecting the characteristic periods of the combined motions of the Jovian planets.
This article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.
Two hypotheses of modern warming are considered: natural and anthropogenic. The probabilities of each of them are compared. It is proved that the hypothesis of natural warming is much more likely than the hypothesis of anthropogenic warming. It is shown that the displacement of the Sun from the center of mass of the solar system directly affects the temperature of the surface atmosphere in the synoptic regions of Eurasia. This result corresponds to the model of E. P. Borysenkov with variations of the solar constant or, equivalently, with variations of the Bond albedo. We consider how natural causes of warming affect the temperature of the surface atmosphere on the example of the South of Western Siberia.
The existence of ≈ 12-year and ≈ 51-year periodicities in the north–south asymmetry of solar activity is well known. However, the origin of these as well as the well-known relatively short periodicities in the north–south asymmetry is not yet clear. Here we have analyzed the combined daily data of sunspot groups reported in Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1874 – 2017 and the data of the orbital positions (ecliptic longitudes) of the giant planets in ten-day intervals during the period 1600 – 2099. Our analysis suggests that ≈ 12-year and ≈ 51-year periodicities in the north–south asymmetry of solar activity are the manifestations of the differences in the strengths of ≈ 11-year and ≈ 51-year periodicities of activity in the northern- and southern-hemispheres. During the period 1874 – 2017 the Morlet wavelet power spectrum of the north–south asymmetry of sunspot-group area and that of the mean absolute difference (\(\overline{\psi _{\mathrm{D}}}\)) of the orbital positions of the giant planets are found to be similar. Particularly, there is a suggestion that the ≈ 12-year and ≈ 51-year periodicities in the north–south asymmetry of sunspot-group area occurred during approximately the same times as the corresponding periodicities in \(\overline{\psi _{\mathrm{D}}}\). Therefore, we suggest that there could be influence of some specific configurations of the giant planets in the origin of the ≈ 12-year and ≈ 50-year periodicities of the north–south asymmetry of solar activity.
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