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Crisis and Catastrophe: The Global Crisis of the Seventeenth Century Reconsidered

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... [Many] experts . . . have tried the former, few have systematically attempted the latter" (Parker 2008(Parker , 1078). ...
... He also cited the work of two norwegian scientists, nordås and gleditsch, who summarized a recent military intelligence assessment entitled, "national Security and the threat of Climate Change: Report from the Panel of Retired Senior US Military officers" (Military advisory board 2007). this crossover report between the disciplines of military threat assessment and the study of climate change is relevant because it criticized the: "failure of the international Panel on Climate Change (iPCC) to undertake systematic analysis of historical evidence to show how climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world" (nordås and geditsch 2007, 627-38;in Parker 2008in Parker , 1078. ...
... Several scholars have pointed to poor crop yields in the first half of the seventeenth century, but not-other than corn-to the exploitation of other native american food sources that may have been available (Jacobs 2005, 220;Jacobs 2009Jacobs , 119: folkerts 1996. as alluded to in my introduction, recent research by students of climate history has suggested that the stressed agricultural production of the mid-seventeenth century (and specifically the decade of 1640) may be partially attributed to broader worldwide patterns of severe weather events, including spikes in volcanic activity, drought, and extreme cold during what has been called the Little ice age (Parker 2008(Parker , 1063gehring 2009, 78). ...
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This chapter analyzes the environmental implications of seventeenth-century ethnobotanical data from the initial shoreline block of the Dutch West India Company (WIC) in Lower Manhattan. In addition to the structural remains of the colony's early inhabitants, the excavation yielded a well-preserved sequence of colonial plant remains spanning the periods of Dutch and early English rule. This analysis of the archaeological chronology and plants: (1) provides new understand-ings of the continuity and shifts in the relative prevalence of European and indigenous plants between the seventeenth and the eighteenth centuries; (2) presents new archaeological insights about the introduction and nature of early Dutch cultigens in New Amsterdam; (3) suggests that many of the archaeologically recovered early-seventeenth-century plants may have been maintained or collected as foods, dyes, or medicines, from both European and Native American sources; and finally (4) building from new research in Dutch botanical history, suggests mechanisms and institutionalized protocols in the exchange of medicinal plant knowledge between Native American herbalists and Dutch botanists in the seventeenth century.
... In looking at past catastrophes and crises, it becomes evident that the lack of speed, scale, and complexity prevented them from becoming truly global. Take the "General Crisis" of the middle of the seventeenth century (Parker 2008). It can only be described as awful; the How the Increased Destructive Power of Man-Made Threats and Attendant Consequences Could End the Continuum of the Growing Importance of Diplomacy world had "more cases of simultaneous state breakdown around the globe than any previous age" (Parker 2008(Parker : 1053. ...
... Take the "General Crisis" of the middle of the seventeenth century (Parker 2008). It can only be described as awful; the How the Increased Destructive Power of Man-Made Threats and Attendant Consequences Could End the Continuum of the Growing Importance of Diplomacy world had "more cases of simultaneous state breakdown around the globe than any previous age" (Parker 2008(Parker : 1053. Specifically: ...
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The threats mankind faces have grown profoundly since the dawn of diplomacy 600 years ago. Through this period, the importance of diplomacy has grown in lockstep with the complexity of society and the escalation of threats mankind poses to itself. However, the scale and scope of how humanity can damage itself-from nuclear war to climate change-has become so profound that the failure of diplomacy could lead to its future irrelevance. This article explores the factors that led to increased societal complexity through the evolution of modern diplomacy and how that escalation forms a continuum of ongoing increasing importance of diplomacy. Specifically, the dynamic means that diplomacy is never more important than it is at the current day. However, the rapid escalation of threats to mankind's existence through the ongoing growth of societal complexity could terminate the continuum, or at least set it back for centuries.
... Although many experts (mainly climatologist, sociologists, and political scientists) have tried the former, few have systematically attempted the latter. " Parker, 2008Parker, , p. 1078 archives carefully recorded a number of climatic phenomena (such as typhoons, floods, droughts, etc.). Precursory work on these archives already allows us to glimpse how the Vietnamese people were able to develop different strategies for adapting to these recurring climatic phenomena, and also how the State (the emperors and mandarins) attempted to influence the climate [ Langlet & Quach, 1995;Dyt, 2015;Phung, 2017;Liêm, 2018 ]. ...
... In fact, Ladurie wants to be a serious historian, so he does not allow himself extrapolations and speculations that his sources do not allow him to defend. Interestingly, Geoffrey Parker, in readdressing the issue of the climatic explanation for the 'Global Crisis' throughout the XVII th century around the world, has provided ample evidence in favour of this explanation, and has criticised Ladurie's excessively 'modest' position, while acknowledging that it was justified at the time Ladurie published his History of the Climate since the year 1000 [ Parker, 2008[ Parker, , p. 1065 ]. ...
... Data regarding social dynamics may need to be pieced together from multiple sources, such as narrative information, numerical records (crop planting dates, flood levels), pictorial information, or archaeological information (flood levels and excavations) Brádzil et al., , 2012. Parker (2008) refers to the development of these multi-sourced data sets as the creation of a "human archive" for the historical period. Robust and reliable techniques to generate physical and human historical archives represent an important area of methodological development in sociohydrology: for example, Ertsen et al. (2014) detail several different ways to collect data from archaeological data on irrigation systems, including looking at the sedimentation in the canals and climate reconstruction with tree-ring data. ...
... Even when detailed data are unavailable, historical studies can illuminate broad sensitivities and correlations between society and hydrology. For example, social and economic contraction, simplification, and periods of destruction in the Kingdom of Angkor (in presentday Cambodia) coincided with droughts of sufficient severity and duration to deplete the kingdom's water storage and supply mechanisms (Buckley et al., 2010), while worldwide incidents of rebellion in the 17th century were often coincident with extreme weather phenomena (Parker, 2008). The diversity of potential approaches and data sources suggests that methodological questions in the compilation of sociohydrologic data sets will be a rich and challenging component of the field. ...
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Sociohydrology is the study of coupled human–water systems, building on the premise that water and human systems co-evolve: the state of the water system feeds back onto the human system, and vice versa, a situation denoted as "two-way coupling". A recent special issue in HESS/ESD, "Predictions under change: water, earth, and biota in the Anthropocene", includes a number of sociohydrologic publications that allow for a survey of the current state of understanding of sociohydrology and the dynamics and feedbacks that couple water and human systems together, of the research methodologies being employed to date, and of the normative and ethical issues raised by the study of sociohydrologic systems. Although sociohydrology is concerned with coupled human–water systems, the feedback may be filtered by a connection through natural or social systems, for example, the health of a fishery or through the global food trade, and therefore it may not always be possible to treat the human–water system in isolation. As part of a larger complex system, sociohydrology can draw on tools developed in the social–ecological and complex systems literature to further our sociohydrologic knowledge, and this is identified as a ripe area of future research.
... Historians have conceptualized crises as extended periods of social and political upheaval, for example the 'general' or 'global' crisis that prevailed throughout the 17th and early 18th centuries (cf. Hobsbawm, 1954;Parker, 2008Parker, , 2013Trevor-Roper, 1959). Recent historiography has attributed the unrest of this time to the 'Little Ice Age', a theory largely derived from the painstaking empirical work of Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie -a prominent Annales scholar and pupil of Braudel -who was initially reluctant to link climatic factors to human history (Le Roy Ladurie, 1971), but has recently embraced the possibility Le Roy Ladurie, 2004Parker, 2008). ...
... Hobsbawm, 1954;Parker, 2008Parker, , 2013Trevor-Roper, 1959). Recent historiography has attributed the unrest of this time to the 'Little Ice Age', a theory largely derived from the painstaking empirical work of Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie -a prominent Annales scholar and pupil of Braudel -who was initially reluctant to link climatic factors to human history (Le Roy Ladurie, 1971), but has recently embraced the possibility Le Roy Ladurie, 2004Parker, 2008). A more common contemporary conception, however, associates the term crisis with discrete events of short or intermediate duration. ...
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The Arctic—warming at twice the rate of the rest of the planet—is a source of striking imagery of amplified environmental change in our time, and has come to serve as a spatial setting for climate crisis discourse. The recent alterations in the Arctic environment have also been perceived by some observers as an opportunity to expand economic exploitation. Heightened geopolitical interest in the region and its resources, contradicted by calls for the protection of fragile Far North ecosystems, has rendered the Arctic an arena for negotiating human interactions with nature, and for reflecting upon the planetary risks and possibilities associated with the advent and expansion of the Anthropocene—the proposed new epoch in Earth history in which humankind is said to have gained geological agency and become the dominant force over the Earth system. With the Arctic serving as a nexus of crosscutting analytical themes spanning contemporary history (the late twentieth and the early twenty-first century until 2015), this dissertation examines defining characteristics of the Anthropocene and how the concept, which emerged from the Earth system science community, impacts ideas and assumptions in historiography, social sciences and the environmental humanities, including the fields of environmental history, crisis management and security studies, political geography, and science and technology studies (STS). The primary areas of empirical analysis and theoretical investigation encompass constructivist perspectives and temporal conceptions of environmental and climate crisis; the role of science and expertise in performing politics and shaping social discourse; the geopolitical significance of telecoupling—a concept that reflects the interconnectedness of the Anthropocene and supports stakeholder claims across wide spatial scales; and implications of the recent transformation in humankind’s long duration relationship with the natural world. Several dissertation themes were observed in practice at the international science community of Ny-Ålesund on Svalbard, where global change is made visible through a concentration of scientific activity. Ny-Ålesund is furthermore a place of geopolitics, where extra-regional states attempt to enhance their legitimacy as Arctic stakeholders through the performance of scientific research undertakings, participation in governance institutions, and by establishing a physical presence in the Far North. This dissertation concludes that this small and remote community represents an Anthropocene node of global environmental change, Earth system science, emergent global governance, geopolitics, and stakeholder construction in an increasingly telecoupled world.
... Historians have conceptualized crises as extended periods of social and political upheaval, for example the 'general' or 'global' crisis that prevailed throughout the 17th and early 18th centuries (cf. Hobsbawm, 1954;Parker, 2008Parker, , 2013Trevor-Roper, 1959). Recent historiography has attributed the unrest of this time to the 'Little Ice Age', a theory largely derived from the painstaking empirical work of Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie -a prominent Annales scholar and pupil of Braudel -who was initially reluctant to link climatic factors to human history (Le Roy Ladurie, 1971), but has recently embraced the possibility (Griffiths, 2010;Le Roy Ladurie, 2004Parker, 2008). ...
... Hobsbawm, 1954;Parker, 2008Parker, , 2013Trevor-Roper, 1959). Recent historiography has attributed the unrest of this time to the 'Little Ice Age', a theory largely derived from the painstaking empirical work of Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie -a prominent Annales scholar and pupil of Braudel -who was initially reluctant to link climatic factors to human history (Le Roy Ladurie, 1971), but has recently embraced the possibility (Griffiths, 2010;Le Roy Ladurie, 2004Parker, 2008). A more common contemporary conception, however, associates the term crisis with discrete events of short or intermediate duration. ...
Article
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This article examines and qualifies the proposition that humankind’s recently acquired geological agency has brought about the convergence of Earth and human history. Contrasting a contemporary representation of human–nature interactions – the ‘Great Acceleration graphs’ documenting humanity’s post-war dominance – with an earlier perspective elaborated by Fernand Braudel, whose historical philosophy assigned physical geography powerful agency over human affairs, this article contends that ‘environmental crisis’ is a valid characterization of the post-1950 reordering of human–nature relations. Yet it is not a ‘proper’ crisis, as the environmental and climate crisis cannot be managed as a discrete event – as crises are often thought of today – in hope of restoring the status quo ante. Drawing on an older connotation of crisis, this article proposes a temporal conceptualization of environmental crisis, signifying a multi-decade historical period of reordering that spans the decline of the Holocene and advent of the Anthropocene. The intended and unintended consequences of human decisions will determine whether convergence, through reflexivity or coercion, results from this ongoing epochal transition.
... While at first restricted to battles among Catholic and Protestant states of the Holy Roman Empire, fighting became part of a wider European struggle after 1635, with the Swedish Realm, Dutch Republic, and France on the one side and Spain and the Austrian Habsburgs (including large parts of the Holy Roman Empire) on the other. Estimates of military and civilian deaths range from 4.5 to 12 million, of which only 450 000 died in the fighting (Outram, 2002;Parker, 2008;Wilson, 2009). The vast majority, however, died from disease, starvation, or violence against civilians. ...
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The mid-17th century is characterized by a cluster of explosive volcanic eruptions in the 1630s and 1640s, climatic conditions culminating in the Maunder Minimum, and political instability and famine in regions of western and northern Europe as well as China and Japan. This contribution investigates the sources of the eruptions of the 1630s and 1640s and their possible impact on contemporary climate using ice core, tree-ring, and historical evidence but will also look into the socio-political context in which they occurred and the human responses they may have triggered. Three distinct sulfur peaks are found in the Greenland ice core record in 1637, 1641-1642, and 1646. In Antarctica, only one unambiguous sulfate spike is recorded, peaking in 1642. The resulting bipolar sulfur peak in 1641-1642 can likely be ascribed to the eruption of Mount Parker (6°N, Philippines) on 26 December 1640, but sulfate emitted from Komaga-take (42°N, Japan) volcano on 31 July 1641 has potentially also contributed to the sulfate concentrations observed in Greenland at this time. The smaller peaks in 1637 and 1646 can be potentially attributed to the eruptions of Hekla (63°N, Iceland) and Shiveluch (56°N, Russia), respectively. To date, however, none of the candidate volcanoes for the mid-17th century sulfate peaks have been confirmed with tephra preserved in ice cores. Tree-ring and written sources point to cold conditions in the late 1630s and early 1640s in various parts of Europe and to poor harvests. Yet the early 17th century was also characterized by widespread warfare across Europe - and in particular the Thirty Years' War (1618-1648) - rendering any attribution of socio-economic crisis to volcanism challenging. In China and Japan, historical sources point to extreme droughts and famines starting in 1638 (China) and 1640 (Japan), thereby preceding the eruptions of Komaga-take (31 July 1640) and Mount Parker (4 January 1641). The case of the eruption cluster between 1637 and 1646 and the climatic and societal conditions recorded in its aftermath thus offer a textbook example of difficulties in (i) unambiguously distinguishing volcanically induced cooling, wetting, or drying from natural climate variability and (ii) attributing political instability, harvest failure, and famines solely to volcanic climatic impacts. This example shows that while the impacts of past volcanism must always be studied within the contemporary socio-economic contexts, it is also time to move past reductive framings and sometimes reactionary oppositional stances in which climate (and environment more broadly) either is or is not deemed an important contributor to major historical events.
... These scattered comments on drought and plague coincide with other environmental crises throughout Eurasia. 82 In Mughal India, the late 17th century was a period of turmoil, and historians have increasingly pointed to climate change as a contributing factor. In 1658, famine spread as the monsoon rains suddenly slowed to a trickle, while the empire, hoarding and provisioning its armies for ongoing internal conflicts, drove the situation to a crisis. ...
Article
The 17th century was a period of transition in world history. It was marked globally by social movements emerging in response to widespread drought, famine, disease, warfare, and dislocation linked to climate change. Historians have yet to situate Safavid Iran (1501–1722) within the “General Crisis.” This article, coauthored by an environmental historian and a climate scientist, revisits primary sources and incorporates tree-ring evidence to argue that an ecological crisis beginning in the late 17th century contributed to the collapse of the imperial ecology of the Safavid Empire. A declining resource base and demographic decline conditioned the unraveling of imperial networks and the empire's eventual fall to a small band of Afghan raiders in 1722. Ultimately, this article makes a case for the connectedness of Iran to broader global environmental trends in this period, with local circumstances and human agency shaping a period of acute environmental crisis in Iran.
... Holy Roman Empire, fighting became part of a wider European struggle after 1635, with the Swedish Realm, Dutch Republic and France on the one side, and Spain and the Austrian Habsburgs (including large parts of the Holy Roman Empire) on the other. Estimates of military and civilian deaths range from 4.5 to 8 million (Outram, 2002;Parker, 2008), many, however, from disease, starvation, or violence against civilians. Some sources suggest mortality of up to 60% of the population in certain areas of present-day Germany (Outram, 2002), while in the Palatinate and Württemberg, losses are estimated at between 70 510 and 90%, and in Alsace they average 60% (Outram, 2002). ...
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The mid-17th century is characterized by a cluster of explosive volcanic eruptions in the 1630s and 1640s, deteriorating climatic conditions culminating in the Maunder Minimum as well as political instability and famine in regions of Western and Northern Europe as well as China and Japan. This contribution investigates the sources of the eruptions of the 1630s and 1640s and their possible impact on contemporary climate using ice-core, tree-ring and historical evidence, but will also look into the socio-political context in which they occurred and the human responses they may have triggered. Three distinct sulfur peaks are found in the Greenland ice core record in 1637, 1641–42 and 1646. In Antarctica, only one unambiguous sulfate spike is recorded, peaking in 1642. The resulting bipolar sulfur peak in 1641–1642 can likely be ascribed to the eruption of Mount Parker (6° N, Philippines) on December 26, 1640, but sulfate emitted from Koma-ga-take (42° N, Japan) volcano on July 31, 1641, has potentially also contributed to the sulphate concentrations observed in Greenland at this time. The smaller peaks in 1637 and 1646 can be potentially attributed to the eruptions of Hekla (63° N, Iceland) and Shiveluch (56° N, Russia), respectively. To date, however, none of the candidate volcanoes for the mid-17th century sulphate peaks have been confirmed with tephra preserved in ice cores. Tree-ring and written sources point to severe and cold conditions in the late 1630s and early 1640s in various parts of Europe, and to poor harvests. Yet the early 17th century was also characterized by widespread warfare across Europe – and in particular the Thirty Years’ War (1618–1648), rendering any attribution of socio-economic crisis to volcanism challenging. In China and Japan, historical sources point to extreme droughts and famines starting in the late 1630s, and thus preceding the eruptions by some years. The case of the eruption cluster in the late 1630s and early 1640s and the climatic and societal conditions recorded in its aftermath thus offer a textbook example of difficulties in (i) unambiguously distinguishing volcanically induced cooling, wetting or drying from natural climate variability, and (ii) attributing political instability, harvest failure and famines solely to volcanic climatic impacts. This example shows that the impacts of past volcanism must always be studied within the contemporary socio-economic contexts, but that it is also time to most past reductive framings and sometimes reactionary oppositional stances in which climate (and environment more broadly) either is or is not deemed an important contributor to major historical events.
... These conflicts were associated with a general crisis, a period of instability, and widespread global conflict that affects all of Europe. One of the most known was the Thirty Years War (1618-1648) (Parker, 2008). Lead is used for helping in the process of melting and the second is responsible for the opacity; the result would be an opaque white glaze, ready for the application of the decoration. ...
Article
According to the written sources, between the 15th and the 18th centuries, at least fourteen production centres existed in the area of València, including València itself. However, the archaeological knowledge of this reality is very poor, with uneven evidence from very few sites. The exceptions to these information gaps are the production centres of Paterna and Manises with continuous activity since medieval times. Manises, one of the most important ceramic production centres of the Iberian Peninsula, had mainly been explored in old archaeological excavations dated back the early 20th century or, later, in rescue surveys. Since 2011, an archaeological research program was designed in order to identify stratigraphic sequences for refine the knowledge about the chronology, classification and evolution of the pottery. In 2014, the excavation focussed on the so-called “Barri d’Obradors” (i.e., the potter’s neighbourhood). The principal goal of this article is the reassessment of the post-medieval ceramics from Manises through the pottery recovered in these new excavations integrating their archaeometric characterization. In the first phase, 35 majolica individuals have been chemically characterized by means of x-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF) and mineralogically through x-ray diffraction analysis (XRD). These results have been compared with the ARQUB (Cultura Material i Arqueometria UB) database that includes all the materials studied to the present in the Tecnolonial project, especially: Barcelona, Talavera de la Reina, Sevilla and Muel.
... század volt a kis jégkorszak leghidegebb időszaka. Geoffrey Parker (2008) vetette fel elsőként, hogy a 17. század nagy eurázsiai válságának ökológiai okai is lehettek, és a kis jégkorszak klímaromlása szerepet játszott a nélkülözés eszkalációjában és politikai intézményrendszer működési zavaraiban. Parker szerint ezek a válságjelenségek nem a felemelkedő kapitalizmus és a modernitás jelei voltak Európában, sem pedig a stagnálás és a hanyatlás jelei Ázsiában, hanem a prekapitalista, illetve preindusztriális társadalmak közös sérülékenységének bizonyítékai. ...
Article
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... While the maps suggest a link between conflict and climate variability and research suggests that weather changes already played a crucial role in the fall of the Roman empire as well as in an increased frequency of conflict globally in the mid-17th century, the contemporary debate on if and how climate change and security risks are related has just started to pick up, and wide-ranging academic consensus is lacking. 5,6,7 Links are indirect and difficult to quantify. However, some regions are widely perceived to be more vulnerable to climate-related security risks: namely, regions that are conflict prone, which lack good governance systems, and where there is significant livelihood dependence on climate-vulnerable natural resources, highly inequitable distribution of wealth and serious development challenges. ...
Article
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Climate change poses risks to poor and rich communities alike, although impacts on the availability and distribution of essential resources such as water, food, energy and land will differ. These changes, combined with other social, political and economic stresses and shocks, can increase tensions within and between states, which, if unmanaged, can lead to violence. Climate-related changes to transboundary waters, food security and trade patterns, sea levels, and Arctic ice, as well as the transition to a low-carbon economy, have profound geopolitical implications. Largescale climate-related migration may also affect the stability of states, and relations between states. Climate action itself may prove destabilizing: (mal)adaptation can disrupt economic and social relations, particularly if implemented without appropriate political economy analysis and risk assessments. In response to analyses linking climate change to security, peace and security actors increasingly realize that interventions to promote peace and stability are more likely to be effective if they incorporate such analyses. At the United Nations, member states have agreed to shift towards a "preventive" approach to conflict risks, grounded in sustainable development. The UN leadership is adjusting institutional structures to better understand and respond to climate-related security risks at all levels, including a newly established climate security mechanism in New York. Many regional intergovernmental institutions have also recognized the links between climate change, peace and security. Some, such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in East Africa and the European Union, have incorporated climate-related factors into their conflict early-warning mechanisms. We are only just beginning to understand the realities of adapting to unprecedented climate change, however. Climate-related factors will need to be incorporated systematically into political analysis, risk assessment, and early warning, accompanied by deeper integration of climate-security risk assessment into planning and political engagement in the field. Similarly, more consistent analysis of climate-related security risks must contribute to politically informed, conflict-sensitive adaptation strategies.
... European populations seem to have stagnated or declined after a major period of growth at the end of the previous century. Economists now suggest this was not caused by any Malthusian crisis of population outgrowing its food resources, but rather was due to the exogenous impact of 1 The leading proponent of this world wide general crisis has been Parker (2008), and his most recent book Parker (2013). Also see Parker and Smith (1997). 2 For a good summary of the latest findings, see De Vries (2009). ...
Article
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Traditional historical literature has stressed a generalised crisis throughout the world in the 17 th century. First proposed for Europe with its numerous dynastic, religious and state conflicts, it has now been expanded to include Asia and the Middle East as well. It was also assumed that there was a significant crisis in the Americas, a theme which until recently has dominated the traditional literature. The claim that there was such a crisis was based on a series of classic studies by Earl J. Hamilton, Chaunu and Borah, among others. But new research has challenged this hypothesis and we will examine both these new studies as well as offering our own research findings on this subject.
... 12 E.g. Lieberman 2003Lieberman , 2009Gills and Frank 1993;Parker, 2008 . city of, say, 5,000,000 does seem unimaginable without some form of mechanized transportation, large-scale production of energy-intensive construction materials (e.g. ...
... Dieses Jahrzehnt sei von extremer Kälte und langen Trockenperioden ge- prägt gewesen (vgl. Parker 2008Parker , 1066. Die Historische Klimatologie beobachtet für die Jahre von 1621 bis 1650 eine graduelle Verschiebung von trockenen hin zu feuchten und nassen Jahren (vgl. ...
... Other historical reference points of the interaction of climate with society emerge from analysis of the Little Ice Age. Some studies show that the Little Ice Age in the mid-17th century was associated with more cases of political upheaval and warfare than in any other period (Parker, 2008;Zhang et al., 2011), including in Europe (Tol and Wagner, 2010), China (Brook, 2010), and the Ottoman empire (White, S., 2011). These studies all show that climate change can exacerbate major political changes given certain social conditions, including a predominance of subsistence producers, conflict over territory, and autocratic systems of government with limited power in peripheral regions. ...
Chapter
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Definition and Scope of Human Security There are many definitions of human security, which vary according to discipline. This chapter defines human security, in the context of climate change, as a condition that exists when the vital core of human lives is protected, and when people have the freedom and capacity to live with dignity. In this assessment, the vital core of human lives includes the universal and culturally specific, material and non-material elements necessary for people to act on behalf of their interests. Many phenomena influence human security, notably the operation of markets, the state, and civil society. Poverty, discrimination of many kinds, and extreme natural and technological disasters undermine human security. The concept of human security has been informed and debated by many disciplines and multiple lines of evidence, by studies that use diverse methods (Paris, 2001; Alkire, 2003; Owen, 2004; Gasper, 2005; Hoogensen and Stuvøy, 2006; Mahoney and Pinedo, 2007; Brauch et al., 2009; Inglehart and Norris, 2012). The concept was developed in parallel by UN institutions, and by scholars and advocates in every region of the world (UNDP, 1994; Commission on Human Security, 2003; Najam, 2003; Kaldor, 2007; Black and Swatuk, 2009; Chourou, 2009; Othman, 2009; Poku and Sandkjaer, 2009; Rojas, 2009; Sabur, 2009; Wun Gaeo, 2009). This chapter assesses the risks climate change poses to individuals and communities, including threats to livelihoods, culture, and political stability. Chapters in Working Group II (WGII) in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) identified the risk climate change poses to livelihoods, cultures, and indigenous peoples globally (Chapters 5, 7, 9 10, 16, and 17) and that migration and violent conflicts increase vulnerability to climate change (Chapter 19), as well as highlighting that migration plays a role in adaptation. But this chapter is the first systematic assessment across the dimensions of human security.
... The Little Ice Age with its severe cold intervals in the seventeenth century, particularly from 1650 to 1700, led to the rise to political dominance of European powers, known as the ''Great Divergence'' (Pomeranz 2000), and triggered the emergence of the modern international system. In the seventeenth century ''more wars took place around the world than in any other era until the 1940s'' (Parker 2008(Parker : 1056. In Europe, states answered the climate crisis by creating standing armies and increasing their political power. ...
Article
In 2000, when atmospheric chemist Paul J. Crutzen and limnologist Eugene F. Stoermer proposed to introduce a new geological era, the Anthropocene, they could not have foreseen the remarkable career of the new term. Within a few years, the geological community began to investigate the scientific evidence for the concept and established the Anthropocene Working Group. While the Working Group has started to examine possible markers and periodizations of the new epoch, scholars from numerous other disciplines have taken up the Anthropocene as a cultural concept. In addition, the media have developed a deep interest in the Anthropocene’s broader societal ramifications. The article sheds light on the controversial debate about the Anthropocene and discusses its inextricably linked dual careers, first as a geological term and second as a cultural term. Third, it argues that the debate about the “Age of Humans” is a timely opportunity both to rethink the nature-culture relation and to re-assess the narratives that historians of science, technology, and the environment have written until now. Specifically, it examines both the heuristic and analytical power of the concept. It discusses new histories, new ideas to understand historical change, and new temporalities shaped by scholars who have taken up the challenge of the Anthropocene as a cultural concept that has the ability to question established stories and narratives. Fourth, it ends by stressing the potential of the Anthropocene concept to blur established epistemological boundaries and to stimulate cross-disciplinary collaborations between the sciences and the humanities.
... However, both the detection of a climate change effect and an assessment of the importance of its role can be made only with low confidence owing to limitations on both historical understanding and data. Some studies have suggested that levels of warfare in Europe and Asia were relatively high during the Little Ice Age (Parker, 2008;Brook, 2010;Tol and Wagner, 2010;White, 2011;Zhang et al., 2011), but for the same reasons the detection of the effect of climate change and an assessment of its importance can be made only with low confidence. There is no evidence of a climate change effect on interstate conflict in the post-World War II period. ...
Article
The “General Crisis of the Seventeenth-Century” as a concept was first applied to Europe, where the Portuguese Restoration of 1640 was one of its most striking episodes, when a national dynasty dethroned a foreign one. Geoffrey Parker extended its use worldwide, having in mind similar events taking place all over the globe, namely in China, where dynastic transition took centre stage. Some parallels can be drawn between the two sides of Eurasia, though sometimes in opposite terms ( e . g ., while the Braganzas were Portuguese, the Qing were Manchu). Among the coincidences occurring in both countries during dynastic changes, there is mention to omens and wondrous signs, interpreted as manifestations of something about to change, breaking away from the old established order which had lost some sort of divine assent. By using the writings of the Portuguese Jesuit António de Gouveia (1592/94–1677), namely his letters, some of which unpublished, we will seek to see how he interpreted these signs and dynastic change in China, while his own country (Portugal) was going through a similar process. We will make use of materials dating from 1636 to the 1650s, to see what kind of parallelisms Gouveia draws between the Chinese seventeenth-century crisis and the Portuguese case, and how he depicts and characterises the events occurring in China.
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It is certainly uncommon for a seventeenth-century observer to have borne witness to two dynastic transitions in places as far apart as the opposite corners of Eurasia – the Iberian Peninsula and China. Álvaro Semedo, a Portuguese Jesuit, is one such case. He was in Madrid, when news arrived that the Portuguese had proclaimed a national king in 1640, bringing sixty years of Iberian Union to an end. Semedo returned to China in 1645, one year after the Qing had taken Peking. In 1650, he witnessed first-hand the siege and reconquest of Canton by the Qing. This article aims to explore the political transition in China through the eyes of a European missionary who had already been caught by the breakup of the Habsburg empire. How did he position himself in both dynastic transitions? What comparisons did he make? Was he aware of the “global crisis”? These are some of the questions that will be addressed.
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As the combined Spanish and Portuguese empires drifted toward political and economic crisis in the 1630s and 1640s, many individuals identified Portuguese conversos—the people of “the Nation” whose trading networks reached to the edge of the empires—as a global infection that was a primary source of that crisis. Furthermore, these commentators found the remedy to the infection of Judaizing in a similarly global institution: the various tribunals of the Spanish and Portuguese Inquisitions. A variety of people turned to the various tribunals of the Holy Office of the Inquisition, in Portugal, Spain, and their colonies, as an institution well equipped to resolve the complex political, economic, and religious threat that they thought the Nation posed. The working relationship between the Spanish and Portuguese Inquisitions was tense; yet despite those tensions, and the looming threat of Portuguese revolt, these institutions did make some attempts to work collectively as a truly global response within and across their various tribunals.
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Disasters and History offers the first comprehensive historical overview of hazards and disasters. Drawing on a range of case studies, including the Black Death, the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Fukushima disaster, the authors examine how societies dealt with shocks and hazards and their potentially disastrous outcomes. They reveal the ways in which the consequences and outcomes of these disasters varied widely not only between societies but also within the same societies according to social groups, ethnicity and gender. They also demonstrate how studying past disasters, including earthquakes, droughts, floods and epidemics, can provide a lens through which to understand the social, economic and political functioning of past societies and reveal features of a society which may otherwise remain hidden from view.
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Günümüzde iklim değişiklikleri toplumların yaşamını büyük ölçüde etkilemektedir. Fakat bu türden etkiler yalnızca çağdaş döneme özgü değil Sanayi Devrimi öncesinde de toplumlara derinden tesir etmiştir. Dönemin büyük devletlerinden olan Osmanlı İmparatorluğu da hiç şüphe yok ki iklim değişikliklerinin etkisi altında kalmıştır. Peki, iklim değişikliğinin Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'nda etkileri nasıl olmuştur? Örneğin, iklim değişikliğine bağlı olarak XIV. yüzyılda ortaya çıkan "Kara Ölüm" (Büyük Veba Salgını) gibi doğal afetlerin, kuruluş döneminde Osmanlıların gelişimine tesir ettiği bilinmektedir. Bilhassa, XVI. ve XVII. yüzyıllar arasında Küçük Buzul Çağı olarak adlandırılan çok ciddi iklim değişiklikleri toplumsal yaşam, ekonomi ve siyaset gibi birçok açıdan Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'nu etkilemiş olup ülke içinde krizlere yol açmıştır. XIV. ve XVII. yüzyıllarda iklimsel ve doğal şartların Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'na etkilerini araştırmak için bu çalışmada çevre tarihine yaklaşımlarla birlikte, ilk olarak iklimsel ve doğal şartların rolü ile tarih boyunca anormal iklim olayları ve sert hava koşullarının çeşitli uygarlıklara etkileri incelenecektir. Ardından Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'nun ekolojisinin önemli özellikleri anlatılacak ve akabinde Osmanlı klasik dönemi, özellikle XVI. yüzyılın sonlarından XVII. yüzyıla kadar ortaya çıkan aşırı soğuk, şiddetli kış, kuraklık ve salgın hastalıklar gibi Küçük Buzul Çağı ile bağlantılı olan anormal iklim olayları ve doğal afetler tetkik edilecektir. Bu bulgulara göre iklimsel ve doğal şartların Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'nun kıtlık, demografik değişim, göçler ve isyanlar gibi krizlere neden olan etkileri ele alınarak incelenmiş olacaktır.
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The Peace Treaties of Münster and Osnabrück ended the Thirty Years’ War in 1648. While scholarship is still divided between sceptics and supporters regarding the actual impact of the Westphalian Peace on the international order in Europe, let alone the concept of continental community, this article seeks to tackle the issue from an original perspective. A close study of the language and rhetoric employed in the two Latin Instrumenta Pacis Westphalicae reveals the underlying ideas which can be seen in the discourse of Europe and continental identity.
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The interconnectedness of Atlantic West Africa and the Scandinavian Atlantic in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries exemplifies an entangled or shared history ( histoire croisée ). The present article maintains that in the context of the brutal transatlantic chattel trade this history manifests different historical trajectories as well as the temporality of episodic events and structural duration that are configured in the divergent itineraries of two eighteenth-century African Christians. Their texts and life histories reveal them as purveyors of intertwined Christian and non-Christian cultural codes and discursive fields, in one case according to a plantation-colony itinerary and in the other according to a world-port itinerary. The complex social realities of multiple texts and material cultures did not operate independently of socioeconomic structures intertwined with Atlantic world circuits.
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We show new evidence that the consequences of historical warfare for state development differ for Sub-Saharan Africa. We identify the locations of more than 1,600 conflicts in Africa, Asia, and Europe from 1400 to 1799. We find that historical warfare predicts common-interest states defined by high fiscal capacity and low civil conflict across much of the Old World. For Sub-Saharan Africa, historical warfare predicts special-interest states defined by high fiscal capacity and high civil conflict. Our results offer new evidence about where and when ‘war makes states’.
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In this book, David Bello offers a new and radical interpretation of how China's last dynasty, the Qing (1644-1911), relied on the interrelationship between ecology and ethnicity to incorporate the country's far-flung borderlands into the dynasty's expanding empire. The dynasty tried to manage the sustainable survival and compatibility of discrete borderland ethnic regimes in Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan within a corporatist 'Han Chinese' imperial political order. This unprecedented imperial unification resulted in the great human and ecological diversity that exists today. Using natural science literature in conjunction with under-utilized and new sources in the Manchu language, Bello demonstrates how Qing expansion and consolidation of empire was dependent on a precise and intense manipulation of regional environmental relationships.
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Scholars in many disciplines have used diverse methods and sources to establish that, between the 15th and 18th centuries, a “Little Ice Age” considerably cooled Earth's climate. In four particularly chilly periods—the Spörer Minimum, Grindelwald Fluctuation, Maunder Minimum, and Dalton Minimum—falling temperatures both caused and reflected changes in atmospheric circulation that altered regional patterns of precipitation. Many scholars have argued that weather in these cold periods provoked or worsened regional food shortages, famines, rebellions, wars, and outbreaks of epidemic disease, in ways that may have contributed to mass mortality across the early modern world. More recently, some scholars have contrasted the fates of societies or communities that were “vulnerable” to climate change with those that were “resilient” or even consciously or unconsciously adaptive in the face of the Little Ice Age. Overall, research that connects climatic and social histories has suggested that human decisions, political structures, economic arrangements, institutions, and cultures either magnified or mitigated the impact of climate change on the societies of the early modern world. This article is categorized under: • Climate, History, Society, Culture > Major Historical Eras
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Герменевтико-феноменологическую методологию можно использовать при решении тех вызовов, которые стоят сегодня перед современной цивилизацией. Герменевтика и феноменология предлагают своеобразное решение выхода из этого кризиса: вместо рациональных абстракций вернуться к жизненному миру человека во всей его конкретной полноте. Центральной проблемой феноменологии становится не проблема философского исследования мира как существующего самостоятельно, а проблема «смыслополагания» мира, т. е. раскрытие той активности сознания, благодаря которой мир предстает перед нами как иерархия смыслов.
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In this paper I analyze the ‘Nitrogen Paradox’ stated by Robert Allen in his interpretation of the English Agricultural Revolution as an adaptive response to the agro-climatic impacts of the last phase of the Little Ice Age. The colder and more humid climate during the second half of the 17th century negatively affected the yield of the land, but it also accelerated change in the agrarian sector. The first evidence suggests that the efforts from farmers could begin to be felt in the cold period from 1660-70. Although the results were not very visible at first, this increased effort prevented a greater fall in production. This can be seen in the wheat series, where production rose slightly. As wheat demand stagnated due to a slowdown in the rise of the population, wheat prices fell, determining the evolution of relative prices and a diversification in production. In others words, the crucial driving forces of the transition from the crisis to the agrarian revolution were climate, population and the capacity of adaptation. In order to prove this hypothesis, I developed new intermediate tools, opening an interesting research field in economic history.
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This paper is the first part of an exploration into the history and meaning of landscapes, based on a case study of the “must-see” scenic spots or Eight Views (bajing ??) of Linfen County in the south of China's Shanxi province. County histories not only include poems and travel accounts describing these places, but often also, from the eighteenth century onwards, images representing them. They are thus well documented places, which makes it possible to trace fragments of their history and draw conclusions about the relationship between humans and their physical environment. This part of the study focuses on how the physical environment interlocked with the historical heritage of a place to form a cultural landscape that gave identity and meaning to a place and its people.
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Cet article explore la question du rapport entre la valorisation symbolique et religieuse de l’element feminin et les idees emancipatrices vehiculees par les mouvements messianiques sabbateen et frankiste (xviie et xviiie s.). Sans nier l’influence des cultures environnantes et le role des bouleversements sociaux qui affectent les communautes juives de l’Empire ottoman, il apporte des elements en faveur de la these selon laquelle ces idees inhabituelles, certaines meme revolutionnaires pour l’epoque, ont leur fondement dans la tradition mystique juive, notamment dans l’aspiration a une liberation de l’element feminin divin, dans une soteriologie de l’egalite entre les principes masculins et feminins, ainsi que dans la feminisation de la figure messianique.
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The present study examines the link between temperature and long-run productivity for a balanced panel of 21 countries, covering the period 1000?1800 CE. Collectively the countries examined accounted for about 2/3 of the global population by 1700. Each epoch in the analysis is a century long, which thus allows time for human adaptation after a temperature shock has occurred. Our principal ?nding is that lower temperatures worked to reduce productivity growth during the period in focus, consistent with contributions to the literature in economic history that argue the Little Ice Age was as a contractionary shock.
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Examining the century-long period of the incorporation of Cyprus into the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of the conquest of 1571, the article identifies the multiple processes that characterised the Ottomanisation of the island. It examines specific instances of turmoil due to the transitional nature of a period characterised by reconfigurations and realignments. Conceptualising Cyprus as a 'contact zone', the article demonstrates that developments observed on the island are reflections of larger processes that were under way on a Mediterranean scale. Finally, the article proposes the notion of insularity as an alternative means to envision historical space, in order to go beyond a state-centric spatial imagination.
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A large fraction of modern global conflicts has occurred in Africa, resulting in a disproportionate number of fatalities compared to other regions. Many of Africa's conflicts have deep historical roots. In this paper, we contribute to understanding the determinants of historical African conflict by studying an important historical source of conflict: suppression of the slave trade after 1807. We use geo-coded data on African conflicts to uncover a discontinuous increase in conflict after 1807 in areas affected by the slave trade, indicating that suppression increased the incidence of conflict between Africans. In West Africa, the slave trade declined. This empowered interests that rivaled existing authorities, and political leaders resorted to violence in order to maintain their influence. In West-Central and South-East Africa, slave exports increased after 1807 and were produced through violence.
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What is the Little Ice Age? The Little Ice Age (LIA) was the most vigorous cooling period of the Holocene and the human history. There are two climate history interpretations of LIA. First, this was the age of advances of glaciers in the late Middle Ages and Modern Times. Secondly, the changing forms of the climatic system, which appeared on the ice-free areas too. On the coldest period of the LIA the yearly average temperature was with 0.8 o C colder than yearly average in the 20 th century's reference period (1961-1990). The climate of the LIA meant something else on the different parts of the Earth, and the timing of the climatic change was different too. The 17 th century was the coldest one in Europe and Asia, but in North America the 19 th century was the peak of the LIA. The most sensitive indicator of the climate change was the change of the quantity of precipitation in the Carpathian Basin. The change of the climate was not left without consequences in the human history. The 17 th century was a global crisis period for global effects of LIA according to environmental history researches. According to climatology researches the LIA inducing the decrease of activity of the radiant energy of the Sun and the more intensive period of the volcano activity. Közel három évtizede foglalkozom a kis jégkorszak klímatörténetével, s másfél éve kaptam felkérést egy tudományos ismeretterjesztő laptól, írjak egy rövid összefoglalót a késő középkor és az újkor klímaromlásáról. Amikor leültem megírni a tízezer karakteresre tervezett szöveget, ráébredtem, hogy a kis jégkorszakra vonatkozó ismereteim részint egyenetlenek, részint pedig vélelmezhetően részlegesen elavultak. Ezért úgy döntöttem mielőtt a szélesebb nyilvánossághoz fordulok, készítek egy elemző áttekintést a kis jégkorszak utolsó másfél-két évtizedének kutatástörténetéről, megválaszolandó, mit is értenek manapság a nemzetközi szakirodalomban a kis jégkorszak fogalmán, s a kutatások jelen állása szerint milyen éghajlati-környezeti változások mentek végbe a világ különféle vidékein a késő középkor és az újkor idején. A kis jégkorszak fogalma A kis jégkorszak fogalmát az amerikai FRANÇOIS E. MATTHES (1939) vezette be a kaliforniai Sierra Nevadában folytatott kutatásai nyomán a késő holocén, hozzávetőlegesen az utóbbi négyezer év lehűléseinek és gleccser előnyomulásainak meghatározására. Az 1960-as évek gleccserkutatásai során a holocén lehűléseire egy új fogalmat, a neoglaciális terminusát (PORTER-DENTON 1967) vezették be, s a kis jégkorszak kifejezés már kizárólag a holocén utolsó lehűlésének megnevezésére szolgált (GROVE 2004). A " kis " jelző a pleisztocén
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Gewalt und Erziehung sind von jeher eine enge Beziehung eingegangen. Mit Gewalt wurde erzogen und Erziehung mündete oftmals in Gewalttätigkeit des Nachwuchses. Ohne körperliche Züchtigung konnten sich die wenigsten Kulturen vorstellen, den Nachwuchs zum gesellschaftlichen oder situativen Zielverhalten zu bringen. Gewalt zu Erziehungszwecken findet sich im Hebräerbrief (»Wen der Herr liebt, den züchtigt er…«), in Dokumenten der klassischen Kulturen des Altertums, ebenso wie in der Neuzeit. Lehrer und Lehrerinnen wurden oft mit Rohrstock oder Rute porträtiert (Schiffler/Winkeler 1985, Abb. 89). Die Geschichte der Erziehung und der Kindheit ist reich an Beispielen und Anekdoten über Strafen, rohe Behandlungen und Prügel für die Heranwachsenden.
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Józef Stalin Enterprises — a cluster of factories in Poznań, one of Poland’s major industrial cities — operated with a precise schedule. The workday was supposed to start punctually at 6:00 AM. Authorities learned early that something had gone wrong on June 28th, 1956. At 6:30, the facility’s main siren blared and more than 80 percent of its workers commenced a strike. Their numbers swelled, and within three hours about one hundred thousand people had gathered in Poznań’s city center. The Poznań riots had begun.1
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Karl Marx contended that the Spanish monarchy should be grouped “in a class with Asiatic forms of government”, considering it nothing more than the “agglomeration of mismanaged republics with nominal sovereignty at their head”. But while denouncing it as “despotic”, he noted that Spanish sovereignty “did not prevent the provinces from subsisting with different laws and customs, military banners of different colors, and with their respective systems of taxation”.1 Marx partly subscribed to a “black legend” concerning Spanish rapacity and incompetence, an image whose origins date from the Dutch revolt against Spanish rule in the waning decades of the 16th century and which subsequently gathered force in England and other Protestant countries threatened by Spain’s purported aspirations to universal monarchy.2 This disparaging image would be disseminated across Europe in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, finding special resonance in Naples, the efforts of the Spanish crown to contest it notwithstanding.3 Yet Marx, as a careful historian, could not help but recognize the legal and customary pluralism that flourished in the lands under Spain’s dominion. Marx explained this phenomenon away as a strategy typical of “oriental despotism”, which is more than satisfied “to allow these institutions to continue so long as they take off its shoulders the duty of doing something and spare it the trouble of regular administration”.4
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Background, Methods, Concepts Climate in Prehistory Climate and Crisis in the Ancient World Medieval Warm, Medieval Cold The Little Ice Age From the Little Ice Age to Global Warming Conclusion References
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This book is a holistic environmental history of the Middle East and North Africa over the last half millennium. It shows how the intimate connections between peoples and environments shaped political, economic, and social history in startling and often unforeseen ways. Nearly all political powers in the region based their rule on the management and control of natural resources, and nearly all individuals were in constant communion with the natural world. To grasp how these multiple histories were central to the pasts of the Middle East and North Africa, the chapters in this book demonstrate the power of environmental history to open up new avenues of historical research and understanding. The book furthermore traces how the Middle East and North Africa deeply affected the global histories of climate, disease, trade, energy, environmental politics, ecological manipulation, and much more. At the intersection of three continents and as many seas, the Middle East and North Africa have been central to world history for millennia. Studying the ecological implications of these global connections, both for the region itself and for the rest of the world, helps bring the Middle East and North Africa into global history and shows how the region must be an essential part of any understanding of the environments of Eurasia over the last five hundred years.
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While living in Paris in the spring of 1784, Benjamin Franklin wrote a remarkable essay in which he suggested that the "universal fog" and very cool temperatures that had affected western Europe and eastern North America for much of the previous year might have been caused, at least in part, by "the vast quantity of smoke, long continuing to issue... from Hecla [Mt. Hekla] in Iceland, and that other volcano[Mt. Reykjaneshryggur] which rose out of the sea near that island, which smoke might be spread by various winds, over the northern part of the world." Although he incorrectly identified the most important volcano to erupt in Iceland in 1783 as Hekla(it was actually Lakagigar) and was unaware of several other powerful eruptions around the world that year, Franklin's views on the possible impact of volcanic activity on global climate have been of great interest to modern researchers. Indeed, it is now clear, as a report from the American Geophysical Union has put it, that certain kinds of eruptions "can lead to a change in the radiation balance and temperature of the earth. Such a climatic 'forcing' by volcanic eruptions appears to be one of the most significant short-term changes imposed by nature." After reviewing some important recent research on this topic, this essay will explore the implications of that research for the study of East Asian and world history.
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We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3° to 0.4°C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1° to 2°C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.
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Data from chronicles and early travellers show that the southern borders of the Sahara were wetter during the 16th to 18th centuries (Little Ice Age of NW Europe), as possibley was the northern margin, perhaps as a result of more frequent spring and autumn rain-bearing depressions. -Editors
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Searching, gathering, organizing, and retrieving data are basic tasks for historians. As long as historians work by themselves, decisions concerning data format, data exchange, computer platform, and the like remain secondary. Teams of historians often use relational databases for centralized data storage. However, fundamental risks are implicit when one uses databases. Among technical considerations, the process of transformation between the source and the database is a deciding factor. For those who gather data, the effective use of such possibilities as data exchange, compatibility, and simplicity of survey and the reuse of the data in other contexts and platforms becomes increasingly important. In contrast, the user's needs include the possibility of data verification and use of the data for more than one question. Many relational databases have considerable shortcomings because the stored data lose the visual characteristics, the syntax, and the semantics of the original source. The EuroClimHist database environment is a part of the NCCR Climate project. It uses a data tool, written in Java for the gathering of documentary data, which generates extensible markup language (XML) files for data exchange.
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The notion that the series of alarming events in Europe in the first half of the seventeenth century might be connected goes back at least as far as Voltaire. Professional historians of Europe during the past forty years have fixed on this period as the principal case to test the idea that societies can undergo a ‘general crisis’, in which agricultural, demographic, climatic, economic, military and political factors are interrelated (Hobsbawm 1954; Trevor-Roper 1959; Aston 1965; Parker and Smith 1978; Parker 1979). For some this was the crisis of the transition to capitalism, for others that of the absolutist state, while more recent commentators have put more emphasis on climatic and environmental factors. The causal connections between the various factors remain the most puzzling unresolved problem.
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This article deals with climatic reconstruction over a period of centuries, on the basis of indirect evidence found in historical and geographical sources. Histories, archives, local chronicles and journals of travellers and settlers contain references to lakes, landscapes, famines, droughts and floods, as well as occasional descriptions of climate and meteorological measurements. Such information can be combined with evidence from geology, palynology or the study of tree-rings to support hypotheses regarding climate and environment several centuries ago. This methodology is here described and used to reconstruct the trend of rainfall fluctuation in Africa over the past millennium. Two approaches are considered: the one seeks to determine absolute variation (thus assessing whether particular episodes were wetter or drier than today); the other focuses on short-term climatic anomalies (e.g. droughts) in which rainfall differed from the mean prevailing at the time, without seeking to relate them to present conditions. The results obtained from this study suggest that during the past millennium there have been two periods of relatively wet conditions in the semi-arid regions south of the Sahara: between the eighth and fourteenth centuries, and between the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries. Evidence for these episodes, and for synchronous fluctuations elsewhere in Africa is presented in the text.
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Dates of first or earliest snow covering for Tokyo are given in chronological order since 1632. Examination of this documentary evidence in Japan shows that the years since the end of last century have been characterized by later arrival of snow covering even though there is a definite sequence of fluctuation between warm and cold.
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This article reconstructs the nature and scale of dearth in the late 1640s, emphasizing the coincidence of economic distress with constitutional crisis. It reconsiders the parish register evidence for subsistence crisis; examines the responses of central and local government; analyses the role of popular agency, especially though petitioning campaigns, in prompting reluctant magistrates to regulate the grain markets along lines stipulated by the late Elizabethan and early Stuart dearth orders, which had not been proclaimed since 1630; and accordingly suggests that the late 1640s represents a missing link in the historiography of responses to harvest failure.
Article
The use of rogation ceremonies due to environmental causes constitutes an important source of information in paleoclimatic reconstructions. Their specific characteristics and full documental records permit highly reliable series to be reconstructed with daily, monthly, seasonal or annual resolution over periods of several centuries (3–4 centuries in the case of Catalonia). The levels of intensity, reflected in the type of religious ceremony enacted, allows quantification. Comparative analysis is made possible by the similarity of the mechanisms developed in different localities. The use of these series in paleoclimatological studies is a promising line of research, particularly as regards the pro pluvia rogations celebrated in the Mediterranean countries and in South America.
Article
The prospect of human-induced climate change encourages drastic neomalthusian scenarios. A number of claims about the conflict-inducing effects of climate change have surfaced in the public debate in recent years. Climate change has so many potential consequences for the physical environment that we could expect a large number of possible paths to conflict. However, the causal chains suggested in the literature have so far rarely been substantiated with reliable evidence. Given the combined uncertainties of climate and conflict research, the gaps in our knowledge about the consequences of climate change for conflict and security appear daunting. Social scientists are now beginning to respond to this challenge. We present some of the problems and opportunities in this line of research, summarize the contributions in this special issue, and discuss how the security concerns of climate change can be investigated more systematically.
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The anthropogenic era is generally thought to have begun 150 to 200 years ago, when the industrial revolution began producing CO2 and CH4 at rates sufficient to alter their compositions in the atmosphere. A different hypothesis is posed here: anthropogenic emissions of these gases first altered atmospheric concentrations thousands of years ago. This hypothesis is based on three arguments. (1) Cyclic variations in CO2 and CH4 driven by Earth-orbital changes during the last 350,000 years predict decreases throughout the Holocene, but the CO2 trend began an anomalous increase 8000 years ago, and the CH4 trend did so 5000 years ago. (2) Published explanations for these mid- to late-Holocene gas increases based on natural forcing can be rejected based on paleoclimatic evidence. (3) A wide array of archeological, cultural, historical and geologic evidence points to viable explanations tied to anthropogenic changes resulting from early agriculture in Eurasia, including the start of forest clearance by 8000 years ago and of rice irrigation by 5000 years ago. In recent millennia, the estimated warming caused by these early gas emissions reached a global-mean value of ∼0.8 ◦C and roughly 2 ◦C at high latitudes, large enough to have stopped a glaciation of northeastern Canada predicted by two kinds of climatic models. CO2 oscillations of ∼10 ppm in the last 1000 years are too large to be explained by external (solar-volcanic) forcing, but they can be explained by outbreaks of bubonic plague that caused historically documented farm abandonment in western Eurasia. Forest regrowth on abandoned farms sequestered enough carbon to account for the observed CO2 decreases. Plague-driven CO2 changes were also a significant causal factor in temperature changes during the Little Ice Age (1300–1900 AD).
Article
Tree-ring records play an important role in reconstructing climate change patterns over the last millenium. In their Perspective, [Briffa and Osborn][1] highlight the report by [ Esper et al .][2] of a largely independent record of widespread tree-growth variations across the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. Estimates of past temperature changes based on the record suggest that climate swings in the last 1000 years were greater than has yet been generally accepted. [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/295/5563/2227 [2]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/295/5563/2250
A Contemporary History of Affairs in Ireland from 1641 to 1652 1: 353, examination of Owen Connolly
  • John T Gilbert
John T. Gilbert, ed., A Contemporary History of Affairs in Ireland from 1641 to 1652, 6 vols. (Dublin, 1879–1880), 1: 353, examination of Owen Connolly, October 22, 1641, OS. 75 Nicholas Canny, Making Ireland British, 1580–1650 (Oxford, 2001), 536 (with more contemporary Scottish parallels quoted at 471, 489, 526, and 529);
Saharan Climates in Historic Times The Sahara and the Nile: Quaternary Environments and Prehistoric Occupation in Northern
  • Sharon E Nicholson
Sharon E. Nicholson, " Saharan Climates in Historic Times, " in Martin A. J. Williams and Hugues Faure, eds., The Sahara and the Nile: Quaternary Environments and Prehistoric Occupation in Northern Africa (Rotterdam, 1980), 177, 180 (graph);
Analisis histórico de las sequías en México
  • Enrique Florescano
Enrique Florescano, Analisis histórico de las sequías en México (Mexico, 1972),
The Philippine Islands 35: 123, from reports on events in 1640–1642 compiled by Franciscan friars The Crisis of the Seventeenth Century in Southeast Asia The General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century
  • H Emma
  • James A Blair
  • R Robertson Anthony
  • Reid
Emma H. Blair and James A. Robertson, eds., The Philippine Islands, 1493–1898, 55 vols. (Cleveland, 1905–1910), 35: 123, from reports on events in 1640–1642 compiled by Franciscan friars; Anthony R. Reid, " The Crisis of the Seventeenth Century in Southeast Asia, " in Geoffrey Parker and Lesley M. Smith, eds., The General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century, 2nd ed. (London, 1997), 211–217.
Secret Printing, the Crisis of 1640, and the Origins of Civil War Radicalism quotation at 57. Como also presented evidence of spirited anti-government pamphlets written and printed in England
  • R Como
R. Como, " Secret Printing, the Crisis of 1640, and the Origins of Civil War Radicalism, " Past & Present 196 (2007): 37–82, quotation at 57. Como also presented evidence of spirited anti-government pamphlets written and printed in England. 73 [James Howell,] A Discourse Discovering Some Mysteries of Our New State... Shewing the Rise and Progresse of England's Unhappinesse, ab anno illo infortunato 1641 (Oxford, 1645), 15. 74 James Tuchet, Earl of Castlehaven, Memoirs of the Irish Wars (London, 1684), 13 (with corroborating statements on 14 –16);
at 1274, quoting Thomas Gorges, the nephew of Sir Ferdinando Gorges. The intensity of the "intolerable piercing winter" of 1641-1642 appears in Harold C. Fritts, Reconstructing Large-Scale Climatic Patterns by Tree-Ring Data
  • Karen O Kupperman
Karen O. Kupperman, "The Puzzle of the American Climate in the Early Colonial Period," American Historical Review 87, no. 5 (December 1982): 1262-1289, at 1274, quoting Thomas Gorges, the nephew of Sir Ferdinando Gorges. The intensity of the "intolerable piercing winter" of 1641-1642 appears in Harold C. Fritts, Reconstructing Large-Scale Climatic Patterns by Tree-Ring Data (Tucson, Ariz., 1991), 125-126, 139-149, and the "natural archive" data published in Raymond S. Bradley and Philip D. Jones, eds., Climate since A. D. 1500 (London, 1992), 83 and Fig. 14.4.
Analisis histórico de las sequías en México (Mexico, 1972), 23; Charles Gibson
  • Enrique Florescano
Enrique Florescano, Analisis histórico de las sequías en México (Mexico, 1972), 23; Charles Gibson, The Aztecs under Spanish Rule (Stanford, Calif., 1964), 313-315.
The Significance of Drought, Disease and Famine in the Agriculturally Marginal Zones of West-Central Africa
  • Roderick J Mcintosh
Roderick J. McIntosh et al., eds., The Way the Wind Blows: Climate, History, and Human Action (New York, 2000), 131, 156; and Joseph C. Miller, "The Significance of Drought, Disease and Famine in the Agriculturally Marginal Zones of West-Central Africa," Journal of African History 23 (1982): 17-61, especially the tabulated data at 43-46. On Lake Chad, see Sharon E. Nicholson, "The Methodology of Historical Climate Reconstruction and Its Application to Africa," Journal of African History 20 (1979): 31-49; and Climate Research Committee, National Research Council, Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales (Washington, D.C., 1995), 32-35.
argues that snow cover and sea ice "amplify global mean temperature changes by a factor of two to three
  • Ms Bnm
BNM, Ms. 8177/141-145, "Relación" of May 16, 1641. Years Ago," Climatic Change 61 (2003): 261-293, argues that snow cover and sea ice "amplify global mean temperature changes by a factor of two to three" (285).
A proclamation for settling the plantation of Virginia
  • Clarence S Brigham
Clarence S. Brigham, ed., British Royal Proclamations Relating to America, 1603-1783 (1911; repr., New York, 1964), 53, "A proclamation for settling the plantation of Virginia," May 13, 1625, OS;
The Historical Works of Sir James Balfour
  • Balfour
Balfour, The Historical Works of Sir James Balfour, 3: 432-433;
Thus in 1638, Charles I determined to use force against his critics in Scotland because "not only now my crown but my reputation for ever lies at stake"; and so he vowed that "I would rather die than yield to those impertinent and damnable demands
  • David R Finally
  • Como
Finally, intransigence often provoked and prolonged the tension between rulers and ruled during the General Crisis. Thus in 1638, Charles I determined to use force against his critics in Scotland because "not only now my crown but my reputation for ever lies at stake"; and so he vowed that "I would rather die than yield to those impertinent and damnable demands." 76 Three weeks later, he exclaimed that "by the heavenly God, so long as this Covenant is in force... I have no more power in 72 Calendar of State Papers Relating to Ireland of the Reign of Charles I, ed. R. P. Mahaffy, 4 vols. (London: H.M.S.O., 1900-1904), 3: 182, Bishop Bramhall of Derry to Laud, February 23, 1638; David R. Como, "Secret Printing, the Crisis of 1640, and the Origins of Civil War Radicalism," Past & Present 196 (2007): 37-82, quotation at 57. Como also presented evidence of spirited anti-government pamphlets written and printed in England. 73 [James Howell,] A Discourse Discovering Some Mysteries of Our New State... Shewing the Rise and Progresse of England's Unhappinesse, ab anno illo infortunato 1641 (Oxford, 1645), 15.
Ireland in the Seventeenth Century
  • Mary Hickson
Mary Hickson, Ireland in the Seventeenth Century;
The Memoires of the Lives and Actions of James and William, Dukes of Hamilton (1677; repr
  • Gilbert Burnet
Gilbert Burnet, The Memoires of the Lives and Actions of James and William, Dukes of Hamilton (1677; repr., Oxford, 1852), 70-71, Charles to Hamilton, June 11, 1638, OS.
The Noble Revolt: The Overthrow of Charles I
  • Conrad Russell
Conrad Russell, The Fall of the British Monarchies, 1637-1642 (Oxford, 1991), 56, Charles to Hamilton, June 25, 1638. John Adamson, The Noble Revolt: The Overthrow of Charles I (London, 2007), 194, observed that "Venice figures recurrently in Charles's thoughts" at this time.
  • Le Roy Ladurie
Le Roy Ladurie, Histoire humaine, I, 7-8. Volume 1, Canicules et glaciers (XIIIe-XVIIIe siècle), appeared in 2004 (740 pages); volume 2, Disettes et révolutions (1740-1860), appeared in 2006 (611