Article

Perceptions of Danger: The China threat theory

May 2003
12(35):265-284

DOI:10.1080/1067056022000054605

Authors:

The People's Republic of China witnessed unprecedented growth at the end of the twentieth century and the manner in which it will choose to use its consequent power in the twenty-first century has become a hotly debated topic in foreign policy circles. Some have chosen to interpret China's emergence as an economic and aspiring military superpower as a threat to the national interests of the United States and Asian-Pacific security. This threat has been categorized as ideological, economic, and strategic. This essay explores the China threat theory through an in-depth analysis of the arguments of 'anti-China hands' as outlined in a variety of right wing publications.

The Five Eyes Allies and China: Assessing Threat Perceptions and Power Dynamics

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Apr 2025
J Chin Polit Sci

China's expanding role in global affairs, along with its economic, military, and technological capabilities, have increased concerns about it being a potential threat to U.S. hegemony. Consequently, since 2017, threat perceptions have heightened, with China increasingly viewed as a strategic competitor and rival. While the"China threat theory"is widely analyzed, it is often approached from a U.S.-centric perspective, neglecting the viewpoints of other key actors. This study aims to address that gap by examining also the threat perceptions of four US allies—New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom—under the Five Eyes intelligence partnership. By analyzing their national security documents from 2008 to 2024, the study seeks to identify the presence, frequency, and sources of perceived threats. The findings indicate that although China as a threat is a multifaceted concern in issues such as identity, intentions, and geography, these countries primarily perceive China’s capabilities as the main source of threat. Finally, all states have elevated their threat perceptions of China, justifying decisions to counter its power in the Indo-Pacific as the main theatre of competition and to reinforce multilateral and bilateral alliances against Beijing.

Orientalismo na indústria cultural ocidental

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Jan 2024

Mayara Araujo

A pujança econômica da China é um dado incontestável. A despeito de seu crescimento, o imaginário sobre o país permanece vinculado a uma perspectiva ocidental que parece não se atualizar. Dito isso, questionamos como a China é representada no audiovisual ocidental, e a hipótese é de que a nação é apresentada de maneira orientalista pelas lentes ocidentais e pouco interessada em sua realidade sociocultural. Procuramos, portanto, entrelaçar alguns casos notáveis da representação sobre a China no audiovisual ocidental com as dinâmicas geopolíticas de sua época.

İsmet İnönü Era: Assessing the Challenges of Democracy in Turkey

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Jun 2023

Ibrahim Yorgun

This study aims to critically analyze the İsmet İnönü era in Turkey during his tenure while concentrating on the challenges and shortcomings of democracy. It will focus on various dimensions, including political restrictions, limitations on freedom of expression, one-party rule, electoral systems, socio-cultural factors as well as economic policies so as to offer a detailed examination of the complex dynamics which shaped the democratic landscape of the mentioned era. Studying the mentioned dimensions is expected to uncover the factors which led to the inadequacy of democracy during the İnönü era and eventually to evaluate their implications for Turkey's democratic development, which on the one hand encompasses the succession from Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and the Republican People's Party's (CHP) dominant role and on the other hand emphasizes the consolidation of power and the challenges to political representation. Particularly, the analysis of electoral practices can provide insights into the limitations of democratic processes, such as restrictive laws, voter intimidation, and limited political pluralism. Moreover, the study will examine the impact of these challenges on democratic decision-making which would include but not limited to the centralization of power, the marginalization of opposition voices, and the implications for citizen participation. The study will also try to evaluate the restrictions on freedom of speech and the media landscape, discussing the limitations imposed on critical voices, media control, and its consequences on public discourse and democratic participation. In addition to these, the study is expected to assess the socio-cultural dynamics which would focus on İnönü's modernization policies and their impact on social transformation. The study will explore the tensions between traditional values and cultural constraints, too. This will be carried out by highlighting the challenges faced by less represented groups and the inclusiveness of the political system. The economic policies of the İnönü era, including the economic vision and development strategies will be scrutinized, with particular attention given to the socio-economic disparities and their effects on democratic participation as well as political power dynamics. Furthermore, the study will attempt to examine the international relations and foreign policy approach of İsmet İnönü. This examination will be through the consideration of the implications for democracy and Turkey's international standing. The influence of external factors on democracy in Turkey during the mentioned timeline will also be assessed. Finally, the study will be concluded with the evaluation of the legacy of the İnönü’s era, weighing the democratic gains and losses while drawing lessons for Turkey's democratic development and considering the implications for the post-İnönü era. This comprehensive analysis is expected to contribute to a nuanced understanding of the İsmet İnönü era's impact on democracy in Turkey which could highlight the complexities and challenges faced during his tenure. The critical examination of the various dimensions, the study will provide valuable insights for scholars, policymakers as well as for any expert who is interested in Turkey's democratic history and in the ongoing democratic journey.

Are the Hawks Watching Closely? Reports on China’s Military Power for the US Congress, 2001–2021

Article

Jan 2022

Nenad Stekić

This article presents the findings of a study that examined the Pentagon’s perception of China’ssecurity and military affairs. Its goals are to explain the major trends and projections of how the United States views China’s security policy as part of the launch of its new Grand Strategy, as well as the patterns of US foreign policy response. The main unit of analysis is the report titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”, which has been issued annually since 2001 by the Pentagon. In total, twenty-one reports submitted until 2021 are involved in the sample. The analytical process is split into several levels, aiming to get insights and highlight elements of Chinese growth as a major security threat to US global hegemony. The author uses the congruency comparison method to see whether the Pentagon’s perception of China’s security policy has evolved over time. The reports’ features were then qualitatively studied through a series of global security crises, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US military retreat from Afghanistan, military alignment in the Indo-Pacific, and regional security dynamics in the Arctic. The findings reveal that the Pentagon’s perspective on how China formulates its security policy agenda has shifted from a strategic to a more specific military dimension, along with China’s domestic potential concerns with Taiwan.

O AIIB e a securitização do desenvolvimento: a transposição da ameaça chinesa para o financiamento multilateral | The AIIB and the securitization of development: the transposition of the chinese threat to multilateral financing

Article

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Jun 2022

Samuel Spellmann

Não são recentes as interpretações da China como uma ameaça aos valores e aos interesses dos Estados Unidos da América (EUA). A percepção da China como ameaça também diz respeito ao crescimento econômico alcançado pelo país asiático. Este processo de securitização é, portanto, transposto para o plano do desenvolvimento econômico. Em decorrência disto, interromper iniciativas transnacionais chinesas de estímulo ao desenvolvimento tornou-se objetivo do Estado Norte-americano. Através de estudo de caso, este artigo aborda o processo de securitização da agenda do desenvolvimento promovida pelo Banco Asiático de Investimentos em Infraestrutura (AIIB) enquanto nova fase da securitização do desenvolvimento da China. Em seu primeiro segmento, recobram-se as bases da teoria da securitização. Após, é exposta a securitização da China, inserindo-a no contexto dos processos de securitização do desenvolvimento e da periferia do capitalismo. O artigo encerra abordando o estudo de caso da agenda do desenvolvimento proposta pelo AIIB. Palavras-chave: China; Securitização do Desenvolvimento; AIIB. ABSTRACTInterpretations of China as a threat to the values and interests of the United States of America (USA) are not new. The perception of China as a threat also concerns the economic growth reached by the Asian country. This process of securitization is, therefore, transposed to the economic development sphere. As a consequence, interrupting Chinese transnational initiatives for development stimulus became an objective for the American State. Using a case study, this paper discusses the process of securitization of the development agenda promoted by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as a new phase of the securitization of China’s development. To so, in its first segment, the theoretical bases for the securitization theory are recovered. Next, the securitization of China is exposed, inserting it in the context of two distinct processes of securitization: the securitization of development; and the securitization of the periphery of capitalism. The last section ends by taking on a case study of the securitization agenda of development proposed by the AIIB.Keywords: China; Securitization of Development; AIIB. Recebido em: 05 ago. 2021 | Aceito em: 18 mai. 2022.

Ascensão da China e outras perspectivas de mundo:Terra à Deriva como uma proposta contra-hegemônica?

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Dec 2024

O artigo traz uma reflexão a respeito da hegemonia estadunidense em diálogo com a ascensão chinesa no século XXI. Utilizamos o caso do filme chinês Terra à Deriva (2019), que oferece uma visão alternativa de mundo, alinhada aos valores e interesseschineses, para explorar a interseção entre geopolítica e ficção. Buscamos compreender como a China vem afirmando a sua identidade e investindo na construção de um imaginário a respeito de sua influência global. Atentamos, portanto, aovalor das narrativas ficcionais para se discutir dinâmicas geopolíticas mais abrangentes.

“China threat” agenda in American media and public perception of China: A large-scale content analysis from 1999 to 2019

Article

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Nov 2024

This study analyzed “China threat” coverage in US media and examined how such coverage affected public perception of China from 1999 to 2019. We retrieved 15 national polls on perceptions of “China threat” together with 30,795 China-related news articles published before each poll. Media discourse related to “China threat” was coded into ideological, military, and economic second-level agendas using computational methods. We first tracked how “China threat” waxed and waned in media discourse over this period. Second, we examined whether the salience of “China threat” in the media has agenda-setting effects on public opinion. We found the economic threat agenda is correlated with the American public perception of China's threat at a marginally significant level and is significantly correlated with the Democrats’ threat perception.

Political biases and inconsistencies in bilingual GPT models—the cases of the U.S. and China

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2024

The growing popularity of ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs) has led to many studies investigating their susceptibility to mistakes and biases. However, most studies have focused on models trained exclusively on English texts. This is one of the first studies that investigates cross-language political biases and inconsistencies in LLMs, specifically GPT models. Using two languages, English and simplified Chinese, we asked GPT the same questions about political issues in the United States (U.S.) and China. We found that the bilingual models’ political knowledge and attitude were significantly more inconsistent regarding political issues in China than those in the U.S. The Chinese model was the least negative toward China’s problems, whereas the English model was the most critical of China. This disparity cannot be explained by GPT model robustness. Instead, it suggests that political factors such as censorship and geopolitical tensions may have influenced LLM performance. Moreover, both the Chinese and English models tended to be less critical of the issues of their “own country,” represented by the language used, than of the issues of “the other country.” This suggests that multilingual GPT models could develop an “in-group bias” based on their training language. We discuss the implications of our findings for information transmission in an increasingly divided world.

Orientalismo Algorítmico: a China sob os olhos da Netflix

Thesis

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Jul 2022

Mayara Araujo

Nas últimas décadas, a China despontou internacionalmente com o seu crescimento econômico e desenvolvimento social, de certa forma desafiando a hegemonia dos Estados Unidos e a unipolaridade global. No entanto, apesar de sua crescente expressividade, a pesquisa acadêmica na área da Comunicação no Brasil não parece estar atenta aos seus movimentos ao desconsiderar a investigação de seus modelos. Não se trata de um evento ocasional. Os países do chamado “Sul global” permanecem sendo influenciados pelo “Norte”. Nesse sentido, o problema que motiva a presente pesquisa diz respeito a mediação ocidental presente no diálogo entre os países do “sul global”. Para explorarmos essa questão, recorremos ao conceito de imperialismo como um fio condutor para direcionar a nossa análise. Levamos em consideração algumas de suas formas que ainda vigoram no Brasil do início do século XXI: o imperialismo cultural / midiático; intelectual / acadêmico e de plataformas. Esse percurso nos direciona diretamente para o nosso objeto de investigação: a representação da China a partir do catálogo disponível na Netflix Brasil. Nele, observamos que lógicas orientalistas são constantemente reproduzidas e reforçadas através do seu sistema de algoritmos que costumam ser entendidos a partir de categorias-chave como neutralidade e eficiência. No entanto, percebemos que esses algoritmos refletem as mesmas problemáticas que temos enquanto sociedade ao emular um olhar ocidentalizado sobre o restante do mundo. Apontamos que as principais características desse orientalismo algorítmico são a homogeneização da “Ásia”, o apego excessivo a um “passado imperial” e o pouco cuidado da plataforma em segmentar os gêneros chineses. Essa discussão destaca a relevância de se atentar para as formas “menos visíveis” da dominação ocidental e também se propõe a abrir uma agenda de pesquisa que contribua com a proposta de desocidentalização do campo da comunicação.

Pandemic Nationalism: Use of Government Social Media for Political Information and Belief in COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories in China

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Dec 2022
INT J PRESS/POLIT

The COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a torrent of conspiracy theories across different social media platforms. Parallel to this conspiracy wave was a heightened sense of nationalism, which manifested through both in-group solidarity and perceived out-group threats. In this study, we examine how individuals’ use of government social media to gather political information correlated with nation-related conspiracy beliefs during the pandemic. Data were collected from 745 subjects in China and analyzed through path analyses, which allowed us to examine the direct association with political information consumption from government social media and the indirect association with nationalism on conspiracy beliefs. The results indicated that the use of government social media to gather political information was associated with greater beliefs in nation-variant COVID-19 conspiracies, both directly and through different mediations of nationalism. Our findings highlight the importance of examining government social media use and how nationalism can have differentiated mediation effects on beliefs in conspiracy theories.

American Economic Stakeholder Sentiments towards Chinese Firms’ Innovation Capability: The Role of State Political Environment and Firm Ownership

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Sep 2023

Outward foreign direct investments from innovative Chinese firms pose challenges to American stakeholders regarding how to balance economic gains and nationalistic sentiment. Relying on the stakeholder management framework, we analyze the dual nature of American economic stakeholders’ sentiments towards innovative Chinese firms. Both positive and negative sentiments increase as Chinese companies’ innovative capability improves. While stakeholders in conservative-leaning states may temper their positive sentiment, their negative sentiment is mainly directed at Chinese state-owned companies. Our findings help to gain particular insight into the complex nature of stakeholder sentiment, a key element shaping multinational companies’ operating environment.

English as a Medium of China's National Storytelling

Article

Nov 2024
China Rep

Foreign language education may serve many goals, but national storytelling would not be an obvious one. Due to the position of English as an international language, it has become an increasingly important tool for intercultural communication and international public relations for countries whose official language is not English. In this study, we will look into the case of China, where English has been seen as the most important medium of China’s national storytelling. Chinese youths are encouraged to learn English well and to equip themselves with the competence to tell China’s stories well in English. As a key theoretical underpinning in this study, national stories are taken as national identities to live by. To better understand this relationship, we have invited 100 undergraduate English Majors in a provincial Chinese university to each tell a China story in English. By subjecting the 100 China stories told by 100 Chinese youths in English to a rigorous thematic analysis, we hope to determine in this study what Chinese national identity is constructed through this national storytelling exercise. More importantly, by examining the Chinese case of English as a medium of national storytelling, this study aims to shed light on the specific purpose of English as a global medium for communicating a country’s national narratives and national discourses.

A Critical Discourse Analysis of American News Reports on the Opening Ceremony of Beijing Winter Olympics

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Aug 2024

Xinmiao

The opening ceremony of Beijing Winter Olympic Games in 2022 has been extensively covered in international news reports. Although these news reports seem impartial and objective, they carry underlying ideologies that can influence public opinions and judgments. This paper examined the discursive representation of China in American news reports on the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics using Fairclough’s critical discourse analysis model as the theoretical basis. News stories from American media were collected and analysed in terms of headline, collocation, and quotation pattern. The research found that American news reports present mixed and multifaceted views toward the host country. They showed appreciation for the host country’s success in delivering a spectacular opening ceremony, but they tended to frame China negatively, portraying it as an intimidating power and a geopolitical threat. This study can improve our understanding of the discursive practice of news reports and enhance critical awareness in interpreting news texts.

China as a Destination for International Students: A “Pull and Repel” Factors Analysis in the Post-COVID-19 Era

Article

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Aug 2024

Wei Liu

International student mobility is a complex phenomenon influenced by numerous factors. This study examines the prospect of China as a destination country for international students in the post-COVID-19 era. With qualitative data from 30 frontline international educators (support staff in international student recruitment and services) from 30 Chineseuniversities, this study has determined a set of “pull” factors that serve to attract international students to study in China and a set of “repel” factors that discourage students from going. On the basis of both the “pull” and “repel” factors identified, the participants anticipate important challenges for China’s international enrollment in the short term, but stay optimistic about the long-term prospect. The “pull and repel” factors analysis is found to be a useful approach to examining the attractiveness of a host country to international students in a focused manner.

China's Peaceful Development: A Responsible Great Power or a Good Neighbour?

Article

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Jul 2022

Eryan Ramadhani

The rise of China has become a catchword to define China’s current position in the international system. China’s increasing power comes with responsibility. Continuing Hu Jintao’s peaceful development, Xi Jinping is committed to realising China’s responsibility as a great power. Concurrently, Xi sets out a neighbourhood diplomacy that underlines the importance of bringing development and prosperity to neighbouring states. This paper aims to investigate the way China realise the twin goals of peaceful development. The South China Sea (SCS) disputes involving China and four neighbouring Southeast Asian states serves as a case study. It is found that China's assertiveness, manifested in continued escalations and dragged-on negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC), does not bode well for China’s peaceful development. In other words, China is hardly a responsible great power or a good neighbour in its handling of the SCS issue.

Assessing the China Threat: Perspectives of University Students in Jakarta on the South China Sea Dispute and the Belt and Road Initiative

Article

Apr 2024

Discussions on the ‘China threat theory’ in Southeast Asia have been reignited by China’s assertive manoeuvres in the South China Sea and its expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While substantial research has investigated the views of political elites and policymakers, the perceptions of educated urban youth, particularly regarding China’s geopolitical and economic strategies, remain underexplored. This study centers on Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s most populous nation, to gauge the sentiments of urban youth towards China’s rising influence. Through a survey of 403 university students in Jakarta and its vicinity, we reveal an intensifying negative stance among these young, educated Indonesians corresponding with China’s increased assertiveness and economic pursuits under the BRI. This article underscores the nuanced perspectives of Indonesia’s future leaders, offering a targeted analysis of the attitudes of educated youth in an urban setting towards evolving Sino-Indonesian relations.

China’s Territory (Disputes) and the China Threat: An Empirical Analysis from the Perspective of the English-Speaking Public

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2024

Kerry Liu

The China Threat has risen significantly since 2020. This study examines the roles of China’s territory-related issues, including Senkaku Islands, Xinjiang’s Uyghurs, the South China Sea, a threat of war across the Taiwan Strait, China-India border conflicts, and Hong Kong national security law, in contributing to the China Threat. Based on weekly Google Trends search results from May 2020 to July 2022, this study created a series of time series variables to measure these narratives. In particular, this study finds that, except for the South China Sea, all other issues are connected to the China Threat by the English-speaking public. Also, the Uyghur issue has attracted the most lasting attention. These conclusions are supported by survey results and fundamental analysis. This study contributes to knowledge of the China Threat and to academia as well by presenting a (still) new quantitative method for international relations.

The ‘China Threat’: Stereotypical representations in the US competition with China

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2024
Int Polit

Flavia Lucenti

When Donald Trump was elected, the idea of the ‘China Threat’ gained popularity. Nonetheless, this was not a novelty. From the early nineties, when the country consolidated its economic growth, concern had begun to spread that China would convert its economic resources into a military force to turn against the US. This article explores whether the concept of the China Threat may have been influenced by stereotypical representations rooted in US academic thinking and shared at the government level. The analysis proceeds by adopting a three-stage approach. First, it draws a theoretical framework that intertwines a constructivist perspective from IR theory with social psychology, referring to Social Representations Theory and theories of stereotypes. Second, while focusing on the expressions ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ and ‘New Cold War’, it describes how the China Threat has been elaborated in the US scholarly agenda. Finally, it discusses how the China Threat has found an outlet especially in the Trump administration’s narrative.

Mediated public diplomacy and securitisation theory: the US campaign against Chinese 5G in Brazil and Chile

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2023
Int Relat

Maximiliano Vila Seoane

Amidst the transition to the fifth generation of mobile telecommunications (5G), the US has launched a diplomatic campaign to prevent other states from acquiring such technologies from Chinese providers. In reply, China has launched a similar campaign to rebut being perceived as a security threat. However, the outcomes of such influencing campaigns in other states have been varied. This article argues that mediated public diplomacy and securitisation theory offer complementary ways to research the competition between the US and China in terms of influencing the policies of foreign states. Empirically, it examines the cases of Brazil and Chile, where the US campaign against Chinese 5G suppliers was successful in setting the agenda. However, neither the increased economic interdependence of Brazil and Chile with China nor their close political cultural congruency with the US, though, are enough to explain the different outcomes of the US campaign against Chinese 5G providers in each country. Indeed, Chile rejected the US securitisation move, while in Brazil it was successful, but partial in that it only refers to government 5G, not commercial 5G. The article argues that the degree of consensus among national political elites and other non-state actors to endorse or reject the US narrative explains such differences.

Framing China: The Belt and Road Initiative in Argentine national media outlets

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2023

Maximiliano Vila-Seoane

This article studies how Argentine national media outlets reported on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) between 2013 and February 2022 (this covers the period from the launch of the BRI to Argentina’s official accession to the initiative). Based on a framing analysis of 272 articles, this study argues that national media outlets tend to reproduce two frames about the BRI: they either present it as an opportunity or as a threat. The balance between them matters when attempting to understand how media organisations shape citizens’ perceptions of China and the BRI. In the case of Argentina, even though its political and economic relations with China have become closer, reports on the BRI were quite polarised. Indeed, national media outlets’ portrayal of the BRI as an opportunity has been slightly more prevalent than negative portrayal (41% vs. 35%). However, national media firms covered the BRI in different ways. Some organisations conveyed largely positive frames, some chiefly presented negative ones, and others were more balanced. The specific editorial lines of the newspapers and their affinities to national political alliances explain these different patterns. Furthermore, although articles citing Western sources were indeed more negative about the BRI, many of the op-eds and reports criticising the BRI were produced by Argentine journalists and other local actors. Thus, Chinese academics exaggerate Western media sources’ influence on Argentina’s national media critical coverage of China while overlooking reasonable concerns about the impacts of Chinese projects.

Framing China: The Belt and Road Initiative in Argentine national media outlets

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2023

Maximiliano Vila Seoane

This article studies how Argentine national media outlets reported on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) between 2013 and February 2022 (this covers the period from the launch of the BRI to Argentina's official accession to the initiative). Based on a framing analysis of 272 articles, this study argues that national media outlets tend to reproduce two frames about the BRI: they either present it as an opportunity or as a threat. The balance between them matters when attempting to understand how media organisations shape citizens' perceptions of China and the BRI. In the case of Argentina, even though its political and economic relations with China have become closer, reports on the BRI were quite polarised. Indeed, national media outlets' portrayal of the BRI as an opportunity has been slightly more prevalent than negative portrayal (41% vs. 35%). However, national media firms covered the BRI in different ways. Some organisations conveyed largely positive frames, some chiefly presented negative ones, and others were more balanced. The specific editorial lines of the newspapers and their affinities to national political alliances explain these different patterns. Furthermore, although articles citing Western sources were indeed more negative about the BRI, many of the op-eds and reports criticising the BRI were produced by Argentine journalists and other local actors. Thus, Chinese academics exaggerate Western media sources' influence on Argentina's national media critical coverage of China while overlooking reasonable concerns about the impacts of Chinese projects.

China’s digital diplomacy on Twitter: The multiple reactions to the Belt and Road Initiative

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2023

Maximiliano Vila Seoane

This article examines three aspects of China’s digital diplomacy efforts about the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on Twitter between February 9th 2019 to January 3rd 2020. First, it explores the frequency and geographical distribution of tweets about the BRI. Second, it scrutinises the main topics discussed in such tweets. Finally, it describes the actors producing BRI content. Results show that Chinese digital diplomacy has been proactive on Twitter, driven by the posting practices of its main international broadcasting organisations and BRI partners. As such, China’s digital diplomacy is becoming more relational. However, the open nature of Twitter also paves the way to numerous counter narratives disseminated by other users critical of the BRI, namely, Western media, think tanks, academics, and citizens, who undermine the stories that China aims to convey. These criticisms expose the limits of China’s digital diplomacy and of the sensationalist reporting of its alleged direct effects on audiences.

US public opinion on cross-strait relations: the effect of China threat on the China–Taiwan tension

Article

May 2023

Hsin-Hsin Pan

This paper examines US public opinion after the drastic changes in US–China relations during the Trump presidency. I argue that the perceived China threat influences Americans' evaluation of the China–Taiwan tension. Based on the US dataset of the 2018 Survey on Global Attitudes and Trends by the Pew Research Center, Americans tend to perceive the China–Taiwan tension as a serious problem for the USA when Americans identify China as a major threat and its military strength as a concern. As US public opinion shapes the US foreign policy on China, the findings shed light on the public support for the ongoing US–China conflict.

Obstacles and Countermeasures for China to Promote the Cooperative Management of Lancang-Mekong Water Resources

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023

Keyin Ding

Since its launch in 2016, the Lancang-Mekong cooperation has been steadily advancing through a range of projects, notably those concerning cooperative governance of water resources. In recent years, foreign actors have cast doubt on China's involvement in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin, fueling the propagation of the "China water threat theory" and exerting influence over water resource management in the region through various channels, including strategic partnership initiatives, organizational mechanisms, and technical communication. Meanwhile, China faces daunting challenges in managing water resources in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation region, including intense market competition and hedging issues, which hamper its international image. This study analyzes the challenges and obstacles that China may confront in developing water resources cooperation between the Lancang and Mekong Rivers, and proposes recommendations for further advancing China's engagement in water resources management.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China's Benevolent Service to Humanity

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023

This research article focuses on the evolving international order, which is witnessing a steady transition between the United States (US) and China. Historically, the power transition has occurred after conflicts and wars, while in the contemporary era, no direct military conflict has happened between the US and China, yet it is widely debated across the globe. I want to explore the dialectics of the Chinese peaceful development, creating a community of shared destiny and future through BRI and the US perceptions of the Chinese grand strategy of hegemonic ambitions to rewrite the rules of global order. However, it is widely debated that industrial and infrastructure investments through BRI create new forms of asymmetrical interdependencies that tilt in favour of China, which eventually provide an advantage to China, contrary to US ambitions. There are contrasting perspectives being debated in the US and Western media about BRI due to obvious geopolitics artificially created by them, while from the Chinese perspective, it remains a benevolent undertaking for service to humanity. By applying the theoretical lens of Hegemonic Stability Theory and Power Transition Theory, the research finds answers to asymmetrical partnerships that result in win-win cooperation for China and the recipient countries.

Southeast Asia under Great-Power Competition: Public Opinion About Hedging in the Philippines

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2022

Under pressure to choose between the U.S. and China, Southeast Asian countries have adopted a hedging strategy: deepening economic relations with China while strengthening security cooperation with the U.S. How does the region's public view this strategy? With tensions rising in South China Sea territorial disputes, are more nationalistic individuals more likely to oppose hedging? Using an original public opinion survey conducted in the Philippines, we find that while an overwhelming majority of respondents were concerned about the territorial disputes, more nationalistic Filipinos were no more concerned than less nationalistic. Moreover, more nationalistic Filipinos were more likely to view economic relations with China as important for the Philippines and to approve of Duterte's China policy, which follow the logic of hedging. These surprising findings suggest that under the shadow of great-power competition, the link between domestic politics and foreign policy is nuanced in the Philippines, and Southeast Asia in general.

Physical Security Design Process Applicable to Chinese Border Entry Ports by IoT for 5G

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022
WIREL COMMUN MOB COM

Rong Li

Actual security ensures individuals, information, frameworks, and gear of a country. It additionally gets worldwide boundaries. Political obstruction and infringement of boundary arrangements can make line security issues. Mechanical headways in actual security diminish the weight of line security work force. On the off chance that the boundary of a nation is not all around ensured, then, at that point, it would confront a progression of illicit movement. Boundaries can be emphatically ensured by utilizing actual obstructions, observation, biomeasurements, light, security faculty, caution frameworks, sensors, radars, access control frameworks, distinguishing proof frameworks, and PC design. This paper talks about certain difficulties and their potential arrangements utilizing different actual security components at global boundaries. This paper likewise indicates the possible changes in genuine which nations’ security can consider for their lines the bosses in a common manner.

The Autocracy Bias: Evaluating Democratic Citizens’ Perception of Human Rights Violations in Policy Proposals Abroad

Article

Oct 2024
INT STUD QUART

Do citizens in democracies view foreign policies as more violative of human rights based on the governing regime’s type? We hypothesize that in democratic societies, there is an inherent association of autocracy with human rights violations, leading citizens to believe that policies from authoritarian governments infringe upon human rights more than those from democracies, even when the policies are seemingly identical. We evaluate this autocracy bias by gathering evidence from nine survey experiments across seven democracies. Consistently, we find that citizens of democratic countries are more likely to consider a policy to be a violation of human rights if China adopts it, compared to when a seemingly identical policy is adopted by Spain or Italy. We find that this perception extends to eleven other authoritarian regimes, and a mechanism experiment reveals that regime type is the driving force behind this differential evaluation. This study contributes to the understanding of how citizens in democratic societies perceive respect for human rights in foreign countries.

Promoting ASEAN Integration: Vietnam’s Positive Efforts in the Context of China’s Rising Power

Article

Sep 2024

This article analyses Vietnam’s proactive and in-depth integration in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ), with a particular focus on the first decades of the 21st century. The paper argues that Vietnam’s more active and largely responsible contributions to ASEAN integration are fundamentally shaped by its perceptions on opportunities and challenges caused by China’s rise. By maintaining ASEAN ’s non-aligned status, reinforcing its strategic autonomy, centrality, and unification, Vietnam seeks to make the Association strong enough to take a unified position towards China’s aggressive behaviour in the disputed waters close to its shores. However, ASEAN ’s internal limitations, China’s great power diplomacy, and geo-strategic constraints, as well as countervailing incentives, lead us to expect there will be further challenges to Vietnam’s efforts.

China’s Connectivity Politics vis-à-vis Global Challenges: a Roadmap to Strategic Development?

Article

Nov 2024

Tymoteusz Chajdas

This article examines the transformative role of connectivity politics amid global upheaval, focusing on China’s Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) and Western connectivity strategies. It explores how China’s strategic use of connectivity has enabled it to navigate crises and exert global influence, while also analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of both Chinese and Western approaches. The article highlights the importance of multilateral collaboration, environmental sustainability, local empowerment, and adaptive policies for future connectivity initiatives. By synthesizing lessons from both the BRI and Western models, the article proposes a balanced and sustainable framework for global development, offering insights into fostering a more interconnected, equitable, and resilient world.

From a ‘Peaceful and Prosperous China’ to ‘the China Virus’: Examining the Framing of China Through American Political Rhetoric

Article

Oct 2024

Finnian Maher

The period comprising the past thirty-two years since the collapse of the Soviet Union has seen a range of approaches taken by the United States in handling its relationship with China. Launched in November 2011, the ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy approach entailed new levels of engagement with ‘a peaceful and prosperous China’, but on the most challenging issues this approach also brought increasing confrontation. The West (in this case the United States) has a history of utilising Orientalist-style, ‘us vs them’ dichotomies to manipulate unequal relations of power with the East (known as the ‘Orient’) throughout history (originally with middle-eastern nations). By using tenets from Edward Said’s Orientalism and critical discourse analysis adapted from Normal Fairclough’s 3-dimensional model, this article seeks to establish whether the foreign policy rhetoric of the United States has shifted to frame China through an Orientalist worldview since the Obama Administration’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy in late 2011. The article analyses 52 speeches from the Obama and Trump Administrations, finding evidence of pro-orientalist themes and language being adopted for both. Whilst utilised to a lower degree, these ‘us vs them’ dichotomies do exist under President Obama’s more accommodating and calmer linguistic-style, being intertwined with language designed to project an image of welcoming cooperation (albeit in a condescending, back-handed way). The use of orientalist themes is more prominently provable under President Trump, with almost all major speeches pertaining to China containing high usage of orientalist tropes in a more openly xenophobic, racist fashion.

Current World-System and Conflicts: Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2024

Under the Trump presidency, the United States and China were embroiled in an open trade war that threatened the neoliberal world order. This paper attempts to put forward an explanation of the trade war from a world-systems perspective. Using the world-systems theory, systemic cycles accumulation theory, and the new international division of labor thesis, the paper contends that the rise of China and the protectionist stance of the United States were products of the neoliberal world economic and political order. It concludes that the trade war has not ended with the end of the Trump presidency. On the contrary, the trade war is systemic and will continue to be fought regardless of which party or persons who occupy the White House. The willingness of the American leadership to use international institutions as dispute resolution mechanisms and avoid unilateral undertakings would define the nature of the trade war and its possible outcomes.

Contextualising the Belt and Road Initiative in South America

Chapter

Jul 2024

Lunting Wu

After the incorporation of Latin America and the Caribbean into the Belt and Road Initiative, responses from countries in the region have been diverse. While some have endorsed the initiative, others have either externally engaged with it or maintained a deliberate distance. Why have South American countries formulated different foreign policies towards the BRI? Existing literature regarding political economy, dependency, realism, or regime type falls short of explaining developing countries’ varying responses towards this loose, non-binding international cooperative arrangement. As such, I suggest drawing upon the Liberal International Relations Theory, and explain why the intensity of domestic business preferences and the state structure matter in understanding these different foreign policies. Following an overview of the BRI, I discern three types of foreign policy strategies towards the BRI, namely endorsement, external engagement, and non-engagement. Thereafter, I elucidate the comparative research design of this study. Specifically, I select Chile, Colombia, and Brazil to form a controlled, structured comparative analysis, with Colombia containing a within-case comparison. This study mainly employs qualitative research methodology, including 54 semi-structured interviews with foreign policymakers, business representatives, and experts from the three selected countries. At last, the structure of the book will be presented.

Case Study III: China-India Rivalry

Chapter

May 2024

Relations between India and China has often been described as having ups and downs. Both countries fought a war in 1962 which has led to mutual suspicion and mutual distrust. China which is the dominant power in the region has sought to establish its influence through its BRI, OBOR and its Maritime Silk Road which seeks to bring infrastructural development in the Indian Ocean Region. India on the other hand has been opposing such efforts by the Chinese in the region where it has often cited that the BRI violates its territorial sovereignty via the BRI and its projects. The CPEC which passes through POK has often been a contentious issue between both countries. However, most importantly border disputes between both countries have been the reason for rivalry between both countries. This chapter analyses border disputes between both countries but suggests that the rivalries between both countries are more complex.

Constructing Attractiveness: Chinese Diplomatic Actors’ Cultural Soft-power Discursive Practices through the British Press

Article

Feb 2024

Liping Tang

China’s Territory (Disputes) and the China Threat: An Empirical Analysis from the Perspective of the English-Speaking Public

Article

Jan 2024

Kerry Liu

Chinese Strategic Hedge in Bangladesh through Investment

Article

Mar 2024

During the last decade, the surge in Chinese outbound foreign direct investment in Bangladesh has been met with anxiety, often invoking national security concerns. Most scholars explain China’s investment with the connection of economic interests and market expansion. Scholars have not paid enough attention to the geostrategic rationale behind China’s investment statecraft towards Bangladesh. This study centres on the question: What economic and non-economic (geostrategic) factors drive the growing Chinese investment footprint in Bangladesh? Following the qualitative research approach, this study argues that along with economic incentives, non-economic issues such as security and strategic competition with India are the significant determinants of the Chinese increasing investment footprint in Bangladesh, which is beyond the notion of win–win cooperation enhancing China’s regional status and leadership in South Asia. This study promises to contribute to the literature on the Chinese political economy, providing a theoretically nuanced treatment of Chinese investment statecraft concerning neoclassical realism.

Remittances Review Great-Power Politics in the 21st Century: Sino-US Relations, Power Transition, War, and the Contest for Supremacy in Asia

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2024

Short-term success and long-term failure? The case of GDP growth targets and corporate innovation

Article

Feb 2024
Pac Basin Finance J

China’s metaphorically “othered” image in The New York Times (1949-2020)

Article

Sep 2023
Journalism

This study investigates, within the framework of Critical Metaphor Analysis, how The New York Times ( NYT) has been metaphorically formulating China as an “other” from 1949 to 2020. Metaphors were identified with reference to Pragglejaz Group’s (2007) Metaphor Identification Procedure. WAR and GAME were detected as dominant concepts, and LIQUID, DISEASE, ANIMAL, MACHINE, and OBSTACLE secondary imagery. It is found that the newspaper’s journalistic values in foreign news reporting and judging criteria toward political leadership have remained radically unchanged. Having been influenced by changes in China-U.S. relations and America’s domestic socio-political ideals, the NYT has been othering China from the civilized world, which tends to be particularly prominent when China’s performance is short of the values and norms preached by the US, and became inconspicuous during China-U.S. alliance. Running counter to its commitment to “truth,” the newspaper employed discursive strategies to balance between America’s moral self-identity and its China policy, and vindicate behaviors identical to those it has been criticizing China for.

Securitization, frame alignment, and the legitimation of US chip export controls on China

Article

Dec 2023

Hai Yang

The Indo-China Balance of Power in South Asian Region: A Sri Lankan Perspective

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2023

H.E. Niluka Priyadarshani

China and India are two states with which Sri Lanka has maintained close relations in the past. These two states have given a lot of support to Sri Lanka in many crisis situations that Sri Lanka has faced in international politics. China is one of the main countries that have helped Sri Lanka from the past until recently. Also, in view of the severe economic crisis in Sri Lanka after Covid-19, India has also given special support to Sri Lanka. Thus, it can be stated that China and India are keen to provide support to Sri Lanka in a very competitive manner. As a result of all these factors, India and China, the two most powerful nations in Asia, are in a furious power struggle over Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean. That is, the South Asian region is facing a problem of balance of power. The primary goal of this research is to examine Sri Lanka's role in the rivalry in South Asia between China and India. The research objective is 'what policy Sri Lanka should adhere to when managing its relations with India and China?'. This study's methodology, which is qualitative in nature, depends only on secondary data to gather information. Content analysis was used for data analysis. According to this study, for Sri Lanka, India and China are equally important and China has provided a lot of assistance to Sri Lanka financially. However, in view of the current economic crisis Sri Lanka is facing, China's response to Sri Lanka has become sluggish. Nevertheless, Indian engagement has recently become increasingly crucial for Sri Lanka due to the terrible economic crisis the country is experiencing in the wake of Covid-19. Sri Lanka should, however, maintain a neutral stance in its interactions with the two adversarial nations, India and China.

A Second Cold War? Explaining Changes in the American Discourse on China: Evidence from the Presidential Debates (1960–2020)

Article

Full-text available

May 2023
J Chin Polit Sci

Ion Marandici

When and how do the American political elites react discursively to China as a rising power? Do they depict it as an economic or military risk? What role do discursive references to China play in the US populist discourses? Relying on the thematic and critical discourse analysis of all the American presidential debates, this article explores the way US politicians portray China throughout three eras marked by distinct global power configurations. Several types of discourses have been identified. In contrast to the belligerent rhetoric of the early Cold War, when China was framed as a major military threat, after 2004, presidential candidates started referring to Beijing as an economic rival. By 2008, the emerging bipartisan consensus centered on China as mainly a trade competitor. By contrast, populist narratives in 2016 and 2020 stood out because they included emotional appeals and inflated the risks of the Sino-American rivalry to mobilize voters. In doing so, the populists sought to forge coalitions in favor of protectionist policies among those voters, who were employed in manufacturing sectors facing growing international competition. The anti-China mentions reached a peak during the 2020 debates amidst the pandemic when the populist candidate used biased language, relying on tropes resembling the 19th century racist "yellow peril" rhetoric. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11366-023-09857-z.

US foreign policy elites and the great rejuvenation of the ideological China threat: The role of rhetoric and the ideologization of geopolitical threats (link to fulltext in abstract)

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023

Since 2018, US foreign policy elites have portrayed China as the gravest threat to their country. Why was China predominantly cast as an ideological threat, even though other discursive formulations, such as a geopolitical threat, were plausible and available? Existing major IR theories on threat perpcetions struggle to address these questions. In this article, we draw from rhetoric and public legitimation scholarship to argue that the mobilization of adjacent policy debates was key to mainstream the representation of China as an ideological threat. By mobilizing debates on Russia and the soft power and sharp power concepts, a minority view in US foreign policy with a longstanding ambition to get tough on China established a seemingly natural link between liberal internationalism and an ideologically threatening China. Liberal foreign policy elites who originally opposed a realpolitik view of China could now subsume a geopolitical threat into an ideological one reminiscent of US-Soviet Cold War rivalry. This constituted a necessary catalyst to align most foreign policy elites to understand China as the gravest threat to the United States, at a time when China’s capabilities and behaviour, coupled with a deep sense of insecurity regarding America’s place in the world, provided the necessary backdrop. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41268-022-00288-6

The ambitious new public diplomacy and dilemma: Australian images of China’s governance

Article

Nov 2022

Zheng Li

China’s public diplomacy has experienced profound changes since the new leadership came to power. The outdated diplomatic principle of ‘hide our capacities and bide our time’ was gradually replaced by an emerging narrative about ‘China’s ideas’ and ‘China’s wisdom’. China’s economic and social development is reflected in its unique governance model. In theory, good governance is expected to enhance soft power overseas, but China’s growing influence is controversially mediated as sharp power. This study scrutinises if and how Beijing is promoting its political ideas as the key pillar of its soft power portfolio and how Australia mediated China’s intended narrative. A comparative framing analysis of China’s media and in-depth interviews with 18 Australian experts outlines Beijing’s ambitions and the dilemma of China’s soft power. This research sheds new light on the interplay between domestic governance and soft power by examining the congruity between China’s projection and Australia’s interpretation.

Rohstoffkonflikte nachhaltig vermeiden Konfliktrisiken bei Zugang und Nutzung von Rohstoffen (Teilbericht 1)

Technical Report

Full-text available

Jan 2011

Ungleiche Rohstoffverteilung und die Konsequenzen der Nutzung von nicht- erneuerbaren Ressourcen sind wiederkehrend Gegenstand von gewaltförmigen Auseinandersetzungen unterschiedlicher Intensität. Die resultierende Beziehung zwischen Konflikten einerseits und Ressourcen andererseits, im Folgenden als Konflikt-Ressourcen-Nexus bezeichnet, ist komplex und bedarf einer eingehenden theoretisch-konzeptionellen Betrachtung. Abhängig von übergeordneten Akteurskonstellationen und der Ausprägung politischer, wirtschaftlicher und sozialer Rahmenbedingungen resultieren unterschiedliche Konfliktrisiken. Diese Risiken sind vielfach global vernetzt, auch weil sie wesentlich die Ressourcenströme zwischen Verbraucher-, Transit- und Produzentenländern spiegeln. Konflikte innerhalb von Produzentenländern können demnach die Versorgungssicherheit mit Rohstoffen in Verbraucherländern gefährden. Ob für energetische Rohstoffe wie Erdgas, Erdöl, Kohle oder nicht-energetische Rohstoffe wie Coltan oder Kupfer: Vielfach wird gefordert, Deutschland müsse sich an die verschärfte Konkurrenz knapper und strategischer Rohstoffe anpassen, wobei auf die Möglichkeiten von Rohstoffkonflikten verwiesen wird. Der folgende Teilbericht wird die sicherheitsrelevante Bedeutung des Konflikt- Ressourcen-Nexus ́ erörtern, die Risiken von Konflikten mit Rohstoffbezug konkretisieren und mögliche Konfliktkonstellationen zu benennen. Auf der Grundlage der wissenschaftlichen Debatte über aktuelle und zukünftige Konflikte werden hierfür zentrale Eigenschaften des Konflikt-Ressourcen-Nexus ́ herausgearbeitet, wobei vor allem die Kontextbedingungen in den Blick genommen werden, unter denen Rohstoffe Einfluss auf das Ausbrechen eines Konfliktes nehmen können. Dieser erste Teilbericht des Forschungsvorhabens „Rohstoffkonflikte nachhaltig vermeiden. (Inter-)nationale Konflikt-Risiken bei Zugang und Nutzung von Rohstoffen“ stellt wesentliche theoretisch-konzeptionelle Überlegungen zu Konfliktrisiken im Rohstoffsektor zusammen, auf deren Grundlage in weiteren Teilberichten neben Fallstudien und Szenario-Entwicklung auch mögliche krisen- und konfliktpräventive Ansätze diskutiert werden.

Disruptive Technologies and Future Societies: Perspectives and Forecasts Based on Q-methodology

Article

Nov 2022
FUTURES

Based on Q-methodology, this study analyzes public perceptions of disruptive technologies and their impact on future social changes. It presents four competing perspectives on the relationship between technology and social change and four types of perceptions of the future of society. Type 1, the gradual optimism perspective, is characterized by human-centeredness, optimism, and gradual changes. Type 2, the disruptive pessimism perspective, predicts that the future of society will be technologically deterministic, pessimistic, chaotic, and disruptive. Type 3, the contingent optimism perspective, anticipates that in addition to technology, other external factors will influence social change. Type 4, the social shaping of technology perspective, contends that recent economic polarization will further intensify with technological developments.

Regarding China: Images of China in the International Economic Order

Chapter

Apr 2015

Lisa Toohey

The enormous economic power of the People's Republic of China makes it one of the most important actors in the international system. Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, all fields of international economic law have been impacted by greater Chinese participation. Now, just over one decade later, the question remains as to whether China's unique characteristics make its engagement fundamentally different from that of other players. In this volume, well-known scholars from outside China consider the country's approach to international economic law. In addition to the usual foci of trade and investment, the authors also consider monetary law, finance, competition law, and intellectual property. What emerges is a rare portrait of China's strategy across the full spectrum of international economic activity.

Perceived China Threat, Conspiracy Belief, and Public Support for Restrictive Immigration Control During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Article

Oct 2022

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been an unprecedented increase in the level of political blame attributed to China for the health crisis and other associated xenophobic discourses. Although previous research has revealed the effects of perceived outgroup threats on popular support for policies that control outgroups, threats posed by foreign countries have received little empirical attention. This study advances previous research by focusing on the independent effects of the perceived China threat to public support for restrictive immigration control during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a sample drawn from the 2020 American National Election Studies, the results showed that the perceived China threat substantially heightened public support for restrictive immigration control. More importantly, demand for restrictive immigration control intensified when individuals had stronger perceptions of threats and conspiracy beliefs about the virus leak from a Chinese lab. Taken together, our findings demonstrate the roles of politically constructed threats and conspiracy beliefs during the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing new mechanisms of popular attitudes toward social control.

THE SILK ROUTE IN THE TANG DYNASTY AND SINO-INDIAN - Page 247

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2021

Vivek Mani Tripathi

What is happening to China’s GDP statistics? China Econ Rev

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2001
CHINA ECON REV

Thomas G. Rawski

This paper argues that official Chinese statistics contain major exaggerations of real output growth beginning 1998. The standard data contain numerous inconsistencies. Chinese commentaries castigate widespread falsification at lower levels and question the autheticity of figures emanating from the central statistical authorities. The author speculates that cumulative GDP growth during 1997/2001 was no more one-third of official claims, and possibly much smaller.

Does China Threaten Asia-Pacific Regional Stability?

Article

Jul 1995
Parameters

Karl W. Eikenberry

The Coming Conflict with China

Article

Jan 1997
FOREIGN AFF

The Coming Conflict with America

Article

Mar 1997
FOREIGN AFF

Many American policymakers and Sinologists believe that China will inevitably become nonideological, pragmatic, materialistic, and progressively freer in its culture and politics. Beijing, however, sees the United States not as a strategic partner but as the chief obstacle to its regional and global ambitions. Under cover of its current conciliatory mood, China acquires the wherewithal to back its aspirations regarding Taiwan and beyond with real power. America's number one objective in Asia must be to derail China's quest to become a 21st-century hegemon.

Great Expectations: Interpreting China's Arrival

Article

Dec 1997
INT SECURITY

Avery Goldstein

Avery Goldstein is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of From Bandwagon to Balance-of-Power Politics: Structural Constraints and Politics in China, 1949-1978 (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1991), and is completing a study entitled Deterrence and Security in a Changing World: China, Britain, France, and the Enduring Legacy of the Nuclear Revolution. I would like to thank Jean-Marc F. Blanchard, Thomas J. Christensen, and the anonymous reviewers for International Security who provided helpful comments on various drafts of this article. 1. The new wave of scholarly interest in East Asian security and China emerged in about 1993. Just two years earlier, such matters received relatively short shrift in one of the first serious comprehensive overviews of the post-Cold War world landscape. See Robert J. Art, "A Defensible Defense: America's Grand Strategy after the Cold War," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 3 (Spring 1991), pp. 5-53. Capturing the spirit of the recent "China-mania," the February 18, 1996, New York Times Magazine carried as its cover story, "The 21st Century Starts Here: China Booms. The World Holds Its Breath," by Ian Buruma, Seth Faison, and Fareed Zakaria. The editors of International Security, sensitive to market demand, have published an edited volume of selected articles entitled East Asian Security, whose largest section is a collection of major articles under the heading, "The Implications of the Rise of China." Michael E. Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller eds., East Asian Security (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996). 2. See Avery Goldstein, "Robust and Affordable Security: Some Lessons from the Second-Ranking Powers During the Cold War," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 15, No. 4 (December 1992), pp. 478-479, 519. 3. For concise accounts of China's reforms, see Harry Harding, China's Second Revolution (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1987); Kenneth Lieberthal, Governing China (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995); and Nicholas R. Lardy, China in the World Economy (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1994). 4. On the increased importance of China for U.S. foreign policy, see then-U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher's May 1996 speech to a joint meeting of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Asia Society, the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, and Business Week. "'American Interests and the U.S.-China Relationship' Address by Warren Christopher," Federal Department and Agency Documents, May 17, 1996, Federal Document Clearing House, from NEXIS Library, Lexis/Nexis, Reed Elsevier (hereafter NEXIS). For samples of the emerging scholarly literature, see Aaron L. Friedberg, "Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia," International Security, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Winter 1993/94), pp. 5-33; Richard K. Betts, "Wealth, Power, and Instability: East Asia and the United States after the Cold War," International Security, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Winter 1993/94), pp. 34-77; Denny Roy, "Hegemon on the Horizon: China's Threat to East Asian Security," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Summer 1994), pp. 149-168; Michael G. Gallagher, "China's Illusory Threat to the South China Sea," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Summer 1994), pp. 169-194; Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The Coming Conflict with China (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1997); and Andrew J. Nathan and Robert S. Ross, The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China's Search for Security (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997). 5. For a brief introduction to the debate and references to some of the key positions, see William Curti Wohlforth, The Elusive Balance (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1993), especially pp. 3-10. 6. On the strategic rationale for China resisting transparency, see Goldstein, "Robust and Affordable Security," pp. 485-491, 500-503; Alastair Iain Johnston, "China's New 'Old Thinking': The Concept of Limited Deterrence," International Security, Vol. 20, No. 3 (Winter 1995/96), p. 31, fn. 92. China's Defense White Paper in 1995 was an unrevealing disappointment. The PLA has reportedly begun a more forthcoming draft for release in late 1997. See "White Paper—China: Arms...

CHINA'S NUCLEAR AND MISSILE ESPIONAGE HEIGHTENS THE NEED FOR MISSILE DEFENSE

Article

Richard D Fisher

Developing and deploying a credible defense against ballistic missiles for Americans now must become an even higher national priority following revelations in the May 25, 1999, Cox Report that China soon will have the ability to threaten the United States with new nuclear missiles based largely on stolen or purchased U.S. technology. U.S. technology in the areas of missile motors, nuclear warheads, nuclear reentry vehicle design, and perhaps even warhead penetration aids are enabling China in the near future to begin to field at least three new modern intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching cities inside the United States. According to the Cox Report, by as early as 2002 China could begin deployment of its new 5,000-mile-range DF–31 ICBM. From northern areas of China, this missile could reach the states of Washington and Oregon. Around 2005, China could field an 8,000-mile-range variant of this missile, the DF–41, which could hit most of the continental United States. Both ICBMs are expected to be modern, mobile missiles with solid-fuel motors, possibly armed with multiple warheads. China also is expected to deploy a sub-marine-launched ballistic missile similar to the DF–31. As the Cox Report and an earlier report issued by the Senate Select Committee on Intelli-gence make clear, China' s missile program has benefited significantly from U.S. technology. In fact, China' s new nuclear missiles may have not been possible without access to U.S. solid-fuel rocket motor technology, modern small nuclear warhead and nuclear reentry vehicle design, and missile-guid-ance technology.

The "China Threat" Issue: Major Arguments

Article

Aug 1996

Denny Roy

Washington's Misguided China Policy

Article

Sep 2001

Lanxin. Xiang

A central premise of the Bush foreign-policy team is that China is trying to challenge the status quo. China is seen as a rising power with a grudge against the international system. In short, we are said to be entering the twenty-first century equivalent of the early twentieth century, when a democratic England struggled with a rising, authoritarian Germany. But this analogy - of a 'Wilhelmine China' - is flawed, for it is hardly obvious, in the year 2001, just who is defending the status quo. At the very moment of China's decision to integrate fully into the international system, the United States seems to have started the process of changing the rules. Just as China aspires to become a 'normal state' for the first time in its history, the criterion for 'normal' is changing. As China goes multilateral in its foreign relations, America turns unilateral.

Sino-American strategic relations: From partners to competitors

Article

Mar 2000

D. Shambaugh

During the 1970s and 1980s, Beijing and Washington shared common strategic purposes. But these shared interests have narrowed in the 1990s. The Sino-American relationship now involves elements of limited cooperation and growing competition. While there is an important convergence of interests with respect to North Korea and the spread of nuclear weapons, the two governments increasingly diverge on a long list of strategic issues, including: Taiwan; Japan's regional security role; Iran and Iraq; the expansion of NATO; the strengthening of other US alliances; missile exports; theatre and national missile defences; and the US security role in the Asia-Pacific. This growing 'strategic competition' is likely to characterise Sino-American relations for most of the coming decade, irrespective of the new American administration that comes to office in 2001.

China and the United States: Asymmetrical strategic partners

Article

Sep 1999

Sheng Lijun

Holding strategic interests increasingly in common, China and the United States are developing a partnership with different roles. Although Beijing has far to go before it rivals U.S. global influence, Washington needs this partnership to pursue its own diverse and far‐reaching interests.

China pursues traditional great-power status

Article

Mar 1994
Orbis

Larry Wortzel

The Rise of China

Article

Nov 1993
FOREIGN AFF

Nicholas D. Kristof

If its economic growth continues, the rise of China will be the most important change in the global economic, political and military balance of the next century. This growth will be accompanied by environmental degradation, an activist foreign policy, and even military adventures. Yet the pervasive tendency to blame China, and the current regime in particular, is misplaced. Most of China's actions are perfectly understandable attempts by a rising power to expand its influence abroad. Copyright © 2006-2010 ProQuest LLC. All Rights Reserved.

China's Military: Real or Paper Tiger?

Article

Jun 1996

David Shambaugh

The United States and theatre missile defence in North‐East Asia

Article

Sep 1997
SURVIVAL

Stephen Cambone

An agency theory of transactions without contract enforcement: The case of China

Article

Mar 2001
CHINA ECON REV

This paper offers a theory to explain in the Chinese context how interfirm transactions can be effectively carried out in the absence of a sound contract enforcement system. Noting that the development of China's nonstate sector, the primary contributor to its rapid economic growth, has relied heavily on its transactional relationships with the state sector, we develop an agency theory of interfirm transactions based on the following idea: a state enterprise manager, being an agent, may acquire private benefits in exchange for not holding up a nonstate trading partner; and this, in turn, improves the latter's incentive for transaction-specific investments.

A yellow peril? No: excesses of the new anti-China lobby

Apr 2000
28-30

John O Sullivan

John O'Sullivan, 'A yellow peril? No: excesses of the new anti-China lobby', National Review 52(8), (1 May 2000), pp. 28–30.

U.S. policy toward China: judge China by its deeds, not its words', Foreign Policy Research Institute

May 2001

June Teufel
Dreyer

June Teufel Dreyer, 'U.S. policy toward China: judge China by its deeds, not its words', Foreign Policy Research Institute, (6 April 2001).

China cashes in', Insight Magazine

Jan 2000

Michael Waller

Michael Waller, 'China cashes in', Insight Magazine, (24 December 1999).

The Coming Conflict with China, p. 131. 46. Timperlake and Triplett

75-77

Bernstein
Munro

Bernstein and Munro, The Coming Conflict with China, p. 131. 46. Timperlake and Triplett, Red Dragon Rising, pp. 75–77.

China's 22nd province

Timmerman

Timmerman, 'China's 22nd province', pp. 38–45.

WTO: life support for Communist China?', Investor's Business Daily

Jan 2000

Frank J Gaffney

Frank J. Gaffney, 'WTO: life support for Communist China?', Investor's Business Daily, (1 December 1999).

Timperlake and Triplett, Year of the Rat

126-61

Ibid

Ibid., p. 126. 61. Timperlake and Triplett, Year of the Rat, pp. 164–167.

Red Dragon Rising, p. 98. 71. Timperlake and Triplett, Red Dragon Rising

Timperlake
Triplett

Timperlake and Triplett, Red Dragon Rising, p. 98. 71. Timperlake and Triplett, Red Dragon Rising, p. 142.

What China knows that we don't', The Weekly Standard

Feb 1997
22-27

Robert Kagan

Robert Kagan, 'What China knows that we don't', The Weekly Standard 2(18), (20 January 1997), pp. 22–27.

The China threat issue

Perceptions of Danger: The China threat theory

Abstract

No full-text available

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