Article

North Korea's diplomacy to engage the United States

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the author.

Abstract

For the past two decades relations between North Korea and the United States have become increasingly hostile. Pervasive and vociferous criticism of North Korea's dangerous and seemingly irrational behaviour has focused on Pyongyang's use of nuclear brinkmanship, violations of human rights and general disregard for the well-being of the North Korean people, as exemplified by its decision to develop a nuclear programme while the country suffered from widespread famine. However, an alternate view put forth by both American and South Korean experts on North Korea holds that Pyongyang's use of the nuclear wager primarily has been intended to demand Washington's attention in order to initiate bilateral talks and eventually normalise relations with the US. Certainly, Pyongyang's actions have been ham-fisted at times; however, its commitment to the goal of normalisation has been unwavering. The current controversy regarding North Korea's nuclear programme may serve as a necessary step to build trust between Washington and Pyongyang and might continue for sometime, given the short history of direct engagement. However, one thing is clear: neither Washington nor Pyongyang can afford to go back to the starting point.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the author.

... Jongwoo Han says, "Pyongyang has pursued nuclear proliferation primarily in order to attain security and economic aid." 17 Habib believes that "Pyongyang's nuclear capability provides it with the bargaining leverage necessary to extract largesse from the international community to plug holes in its economic matrix." 18 However, some scholars do not agree with this view. ...
... Indicators 1, 4, 6, 8, 9 10,11,16,17,18,19,20,21, Indicators 2, 5, 6,7,8,9,11,13,15,17,19, Indicators 1, 2, 4, 9,10,16,17,19,20,21,22,23 ...
... Indicators 1, 4, 6, 8, 9 10,11,16,17,18,19,20,21, Indicators 2, 5, 6,7,8,9,11,13,15,17,19, Indicators 1, 2, 4, 9,10,16,17,19,20,21,22,23 ...
Article
This article challenges the stereotype that North Korea's foreign policy is difficult to predict and thus can only be subjected to ex post study. Based on the naive Bayesian method, we establish a short‐term prediction model for North Korea's nuclear and missile tests using international news reports from North Korean media between 2006 and 2018 as a dataset. The test results show that the overall accuracy rate of the model's predictions of North Korean historical activity is greater than 80%, and its robustness is strong. To solve the problem of relatively delayed data collection, we use the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series analysis method to simulate the values of feature sets. The estimated data are statistically reliable, and the prediction accuracy is high. This study proves that although the DPRK is extremely closed, it is possible to make relatively accurate predictions of its behavior using appropriate methods. The modeling approach in this paper can provide inspiration for developing general approaches to national behavior prediction.
Article
The USA has long called for the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation of North Korea. But is this a realistic policy option? In order to address this question, a broader question needs to be answered: What are the primary drivers of North Korea’s interest in nuclear weapons? Most answers to this question take one of two basic positions. ‘Doves’, on the one hand, see North Korea developing nuclear weapons because of the threatening foreign policies of the USA and South Korea. ‘Hawks’, on the other hand, see North Korean nuclear development as driven by factors internal to the North Korean regime, inherent in its personality. The author examines these two arguments against the evidence and finds them both wanting. In contrast, he puts forth an alternative argument focused on the power of the global hegemon, the USA, and its position on the Korean Peninsula. This power and positional alternative is shown to be better reflected in the evidence presented.
Article
China has exploited its relatively strong position following the current global financial and economic crisis, to buy up energy positions throughout Asia. In doing so it is using the tactics it had developed earlier when energy prices were quite high to buttress its energy security. That security entails having multiple secure sources of energy over land that cannot be interdicted by hostile naval forces. But beyond that, China's stronger position vis-à-vis distressed firms and governments allows it not only to buy key energy holdings, but also to exercise greater influence upon these firms' and states' policies and induce them to accommodate their policy preferences to Beijing's desiderata. The evidence brought forward here, concerning Russia, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, and Iran suggests that we are beginning to see a pattern of China leveraging its superior economic position in the current climate to induce this accommodating behavior and thereby begin to reorient security behavior in Asia even if it is all done by purely peaceful and economic means.
Full-text available
Article
Things may look bad, but North Korea can stagger on for a long time before it collapses. The famine there, limited information seems to reveal, is due not to shortages of food but to political decisions in Pyongyang. But unification would be so costly for South Korea - about $1 trillion over 10-25 years - and a mass southward exodus so debilitating that the South will instead qv to prop up the North. China will provide food, and the United States fuel, while the North muddles through with a form of apparatchik capitalism similar to Romania's in the 1980s, in which officials channel resources to favored groups.
Book
A decade before being proclaimed part of the “axis of evil,” North Korea raised alarms in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo as the pace of its clandestine nuclear weapons program mounted. When confronted by evidence of its deception in 1993, Pyongyang abruptly announced its intention to become the first nation ever to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, defying its earlier commitments to submit its nuclear activities to full international inspections. U.S. intelligence had revealed evidence of a robust plutonium production program. Unconstrained, North Korea’s nuclear factory would soon be capable of building about thirty Nagasaki-sized nuclear weapons annually. The resulting arsenal would directly threaten the security of the United States and its allies, while tempting cash-starved North Korea to export its deadly wares to America’s most bitter adversaries. In Go ing Critical, three former U.S. officials who played key roles in the nuclear crisis trace the intense efforts that led North Korea to freeze-and pledge ultimately to dismantle-its dangerous plutonium production program under international inspection, while the storm clouds of a second Korean War gathered. Drawing on international government documents, memoranda, cables, and notes, the authors chronicle the complex web of diplomacy--from Seoul, Tokyo, and Beijing to Geneva, Moscow, and Vienna and back again-that led to the negotiation of the 1994 Agreed Framework intended to resolve this nuclear standoff. They also explore the challenge of weaving together the military, economic, and diplomatic instruments employed to persuade North Korea to accept significant constraints on its nuclear activities, while deterring rather than provoking a violent North Korean response. Some ten years after these intense negotiations, the Agreed Framework lies abandoned. North Korea claims to possess some nuclear weapons, while threatening to produce even more. The story of the 1994 confrontation provides important lessons for the United States as it grapples once again with a nuclear crisis on a peninsula that half a century ago claimed more than 50,000 American lives and today bristles with arms along the last frontier of the cold war: the De-Militarized Zone separating North and South Korea.
Article
The road ahead for Korean denuclearization and the normalization of us-North Korean relations promises to be bumpy and unpredictable.
Article
Countries that seek nuclear weapons are insecure. Trying to isolate or coerce them can easily backfire.
Article
The outcome of the North Korean nuclear saga has been held up as an example of the Bush administration defying its bellicose reputation and using multilateralism and diplomacy to defuse a crisis. But in fact, the story is one of extremely poor policymaking and a persistent failure to devise a coherent strategy-with the result that North Korea has managed to dramatically expand its nuclear capability.
Article
PyoThe White House's radical new strategy for handling weapons of mass destruction will reduce international cooperation on nonproliferation, not increase it.
Article
President Bush's condemnation of North Korea as part of the "axis of evil" caused confusion worldwide, as allies and enemies alike tried to discern his administration's constantly shifting policy toward Pyongyang. But there is method to the madness. Look closely, and a consistent strategy emerges: "hawk engagement." Although Bush's team may use tactics seemingly similar to those of Clinton's, the administration wants to engage Kim Jong II for very different reasons: to set him up for a fall.
Article
Since the ousting of Khrushchev in October 1964, North Korea's relations with her neighbours have undergone a radical change. The warmth that the North Korean leaders demonstrated towards Communist China earlier has all but evaporated. The staunch anti-revisionism which used to characterise North Korean speeches and statements has given way to increasingly frequent warnings about the dangers of left opportunism, dogmatism and sectarianism. The economic and political ties between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Soviet Union which were seriously damaged during the Khrushchev era have now been more or less re-established.
Article
Thesis (Ph. D. in Energy and Resources)--University of California, Berkeley Dec. 1989. Includes bibliographical references. Photocopy.
Anbohwangyung byunhwawa bookhaekhaegyul gasokhwa ganeung-seong (Changes in the security environment and possibility for fast resolution of North Korea's nuclear weapons programme), Tongil Hankook
  • Baek
Baek, Seoung-joo, 2007. Anbohwangyung byunhwawa bookhaekhaegyul gasokhwa ganeung-seong (Changes in the security environment and possibility for fast resolution of North Korea's nuclear weapons programme), Tongil Hankook (Unification Korea), 284: 19Á22. BBC News, 2007. 'Bush pushed on Korea peace treaty', 7 September, Bhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/ hi/asia-pacific/6982820.stm (accessed 26 December 2007).
The North Korea climbdown
  • Bolton
  • John
Bolton, John, 2007. 'The North Korea climbdown', Wall Street Journal, 5 March, Bhttp:// www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id0110009746 (accessed 19 June 2008).
Mibook gwangye gaeseoneui hyunjaewa hyanghoo jeonmang (Current and future analysis of the normalisation between the US and DPRK), Tongil Hankook P'yongyang between Peking and Moscow: North Korea's Involvement in the Sino-Soviet Dispute
  • Chon
Chon, Hyun-joon, 2007. Mibook gwangye gaeseoneui hyunjaewa hyanghoo jeonmang (Current and future analysis of the normalisation between the US and DPRK), Tongil Hankook (Unification Korea), 286: 11Á14. Chung, Chin O., 1978. P'yongyang between Peking and Moscow: North Korea's Involvement in the Sino-Soviet Dispute, 1958Á1975 (Alabama: University of Alabama Press).
Bookhaneui kookka jeonryakkwa haekjeongchaek (National Strategy of North Korea and Nuclear Policy)
  • Chung
  • Young
Chung, Young-tae, 2007. Bookhaneui kookka jeonryakkwa haekjeongchaek (National Strategy of North Korea and Nuclear Policy) (Seoul: Korea Research Institute for Strategy).
North Korea documents make debut, at a distance'
  • Cooper
  • Helene
Cooper, Helene, 2008. 'North Korea documents make debut, at a distance', New York Times, 14 May, Bhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/washington/14diplo.html?_r01&oref0 slogin (accessed 12 June 2008).
Kim Jong Il confronts Bush */ and wins: a new page in NorthÁSouth Korean relations', Japan Focus
  • B Cummings
Cummings, B., 2007. 'Kim Jong Il confronts Bush */ and wins: a new page in NorthÁSouth Korean relations', Japan Focus, 9 October, Bhttp://www.japanfocus.org/products/details/2539.
Korea's Place in the Sun: A Modern History Department of Treasury (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network)Treasury finalizes rule against Banco Delta Asia: BDA cut off from US financial system', HP-315, 14 March, can be accessed in
  • B Cummings
Cummings, B., 2005. Korea's Place in the Sun: A Modern History (New York: W. W. Norton). Department of Treasury (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network), 2007. 'Treasury finalizes rule against Banco Delta Asia: BDA cut off from US financial system', HP-315, 14 March, can be accessed in Federal Register, Vol. 72, No. 52, Monday, March 19, 2007/Rules and Regulations.
The most dangerous country', The National Interest, 57. Eberstadt, NicholasA skeptical viewTalking only makes it worse
  • Eberstadt
  • Nicholas
Eberstadt, Nicholas, 1999. 'The most dangerous country', The National Interest, 57. Eberstadt, Nicholas, 2005. 'A skeptical view', Wall Street Journal, 21 September, A26. Eberstadt, Nicholas, 2007. 'Talking only makes it worse', Time International, 5 February.
North Korea: The Paranoid Peninsula
  • French
  • Paul
French, Paul, 2005. North Korea: The Paranoid Peninsula (London: Zed Books).
Nuclear shockwaves: ramifications of the North Korean nuclear test', Arms Control Today
  • Gallucci
  • Robert
Gallucci, Robert, 2006. 'Nuclear shockwaves: ramifications of the North Korean nuclear test', Arms Control Today, 36(9): 6Á8.
1992 nyun han joong sookyo jeonhoo book-joong heomakhan daechi (A perilous confrontation between North Korea and China around the normalisation of South Korea and China in 1992)
  • Ha
  • Jongdae
Ha, Jongdae, 2007. 1992 nyun han joong sookyo jeonhoo book-joong heomakhan daechi (A perilous confrontation between North Korea and China around the normalisation of South Korea and China in 1992), 28 August, Bhttp://www.donga.com/fbin/output?n0 200708280396&top2001.
US presses N Korea on financial rules', Associated Press
  • Heilprin
  • John
Heilprin, John, 2007. 'US presses N Korea on financial rules', Associated Press, 19 November, Bhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/ 11/19/AR2007111901563.html (accessed 20 November 2007).
Bookhaneui jinshillkwa heowi (Truth and Falsehood of North Korea) (Seoul: Shidaejeongshin)
  • Hwang
  • Jang
Hwang, Jang-yup, 2006. Bookhaneui jinshillkwa heowi (Truth and Falsehood of North Korea) (Seoul: Shidaejeongshin).
Understanding China's North Korea policy
  • Ji
  • You
Ji, You, 2004. 'Understanding China's North Korea policy', China Brief, 4(5): 1Á3.
A nuclear test for diplomacy
  • Henry A Kissinger
Kissinger, Henry A., 2006. 'A nuclear test for diplomacy', Washington Post, 16 May, A17, Bhttp:// www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/ 2006/ 05/15/ AR2006051501200.html (accessed 20 September 2007).
Bookhan joongkook gwangye (The Relationship of DPRK and China) (Seoul: Joongshim)
  • Lee
  • Jong
Lee, Jong-seok, 2000a. Bookhan joongkook gwangye (The Relationship of DPRK and China) (Seoul: Joongshim).
The last emperor', New York Times Magazine
  • P Maass
Maass, P., 2003. 'The last emperor', New York Times Magazine, 19 October, Bhttp:// www.petermaass.com/core.cfm?p01&mag0111&magtype01 (accessed 24 September 2007).
Banco Delta Asia, North Korea's frozen funds and US undermining of the Six-Party Talks: obstacles to a solution
  • Mcglynn
  • John
McGlynn, John, 2007. 'Banco Delta Asia, North Korea's frozen funds and US undermining of the Six-Party Talks: obstacles to a solution', ZNet, 9 June.
From symbols to substance
  • Moon
  • Chung
Moon, Chung-in, 2008. 'From symbols to substance', Global Asia, 2(3): 76Á88.
North Korean foreign policy in comparative and theoretical perspective North Korea and the World: Explaining Pyongyang's Foreign Policy
  • Moon
  • Chung
Moon, Chung-in, 2005. 'North Korean foreign policy in comparative and theoretical perspective', in Byung Chul Koh (ed.) North Korea and the World: Explaining Pyongyang's Foreign Policy (Seoul: Kyungnam University Press).
Tongileun eopda (No Unification)
  • Nam
Nam, Joo-hong, 2006. Tongileun eopda (No Unification) (Seoul: Random House Korea).
Bush ponders a military option
  • Niksch
  • Larry
Niksch, Larry, 2003, 'Bush ponders a military option', Far Eastern Economic Review, 17 July.
The WashingtonÁSeoulÁPyongyang triangle and the future of the Korean Peninsula
  • Noland
  • Marcus
Noland, Marcus, 1997. 'Why North Korea will muddle through', Foreign Affairs, 76(4): 105Á18. Park, Dong Whan, 1998. 'The WashingtonÁSeoulÁPyongyang triangle and the future of the Korean Peninsula', in Dong Whan Park (ed.) The US and the Two Koreas: A New Triangle (Boulder: Lynne Rienner).
Bilateral research collaboration between Kim Chaek University of Technology (DPRK) and Syracuse University (US) in the area of integrated information technology
  • T Shin
  • H Kim
  • S Thorson
  • T Harblin
  • D Gregg
  • F Carriere
  • S Han
  • S An
Shin, T., H. Kim, S. Thorson, T. Harblin, D. Gregg, F. Carriere, S. Han and S. An, 2003. 'Bilateral research collaboration between Kim Chaek University of Technology (DPRK) and Syracuse University (US) in the area of integrated information technology', paper prepared for the Asian Studies on the Pacific Cost (ASPAC) 2003 Annual Meeting, Honolulu, Hawaii. Sigal, Leon V., 1998a. Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea (Princeton: Princeton University Press).
Easing the military confrontation in Korea
  • Leon V Sigal
Sigal, Leon V., 1998b. 'Easing the military confrontation in Korea', PacNet Newsletter, 13
How to deflate the North Korean crisis: normalize relations', USA Today, 15 January. North Korea's diplomacy to engage the United States 119 Downloaded by
  • Sigal
  • Leon
Sigal, Leon, 2003. 'How to deflate the North Korean crisis: normalize relations', USA Today, 15 January. North Korea's diplomacy to engage the United States 119 Downloaded by [University of Birmingham] at 19:37 09 October 2014
The lessons of North Korea's test', Current History The Strained Alliance: Peking, Pyongyang, Moscow and the Politics of the Korean Civil War
  • Sigal
  • Leon
Sigal, Leon, 2006. 'The lessons of North Korea's test', Current History, November: 363Á4. Simmons, Robert R., 1975. The Strained Alliance: Peking, Pyongyang, Moscow and the Politics of the Korean Civil War (New York: Free Press).
How US used a bank to punish North Korea: nuclear talks are said to proceed, as Macau frees frozen account Bookhaneui seongoon yoigyo yungoo (Study of military first diplomacy)
  • Solomon
  • Neil Jay
  • King
  • Jr
Solomon, Jay and Neil King Jr, 2007. 'How US used a bank to punish North Korea: nuclear talks are said to proceed, as Macau frees frozen account', Wall Street Journal, 12 April. Suh, Hoon, 2008. Bookhaneui seongoon yoigyo yungoo (Study of military first diplomacy), PhD dissertation.
Annual Report to the Henry Luce Foundation
  • Stuart Thorson
  • Frederick Carriere
Thorson, Stuart and Carriere, Frederick, 2007. Annual Report to the Henry Luce Foundation: 2006Á2007.
Philharmonic agrees to play in North Korea', New York Times
  • Wakin
  • Daniel
Wakin, Daniel, 2007. 'Philharmonic agrees to play in North Korea', New York Times, 10 December, Bhttp://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/10/arts/music/10phil.html?pagewanted0print (accessed 26 December 2007).
Philharmonic agrees to play in North Korea
  • Daniel Wakin
Bush pushed on Korea peace treaty
  • Bbc News
Kim Jong Il confronts Bush - and wins: a new page in North-South Korean relations
  • B Cummings
A perilous confrontation between North Korea and China around the normalisation of South Korea and China in 1992
  • Jongdae Ha
US presses N Korea on financial rules
  • John Heilprin
How US used a bank to punish North Korea: nuclear talks are said to proceed, as Macau frees frozen account
  • Jay Solomon
  • Neil King
Study of military first diplomacy)
  • Hoon Suh