Article

On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

Abstract

In the social sciences, two prevailing definitions of risk are: (1) risk is a situation or event where something of human value (including humans themselves) is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain; (2) risk is an uncertain consequence of an event or an activity with respect to something that humans value. According to these definitions, risk expresses an ontology (a theory of being) independent of our knowledge and perceptions. In this paper, we look closer into these two types of definitions. We conclude that the definitions provide a sound foundation for risk research and risk management, but compared to common terminology, they lead to conceptual difficulties that are incompatible with the everyday use of risk in most applications. By considering risk as a state of the world, we cannot conclude, for example, about the risk being high or low, or compare different options with respect to risk. A rephrasing of the two definitions is suggested: Risk refers to uncertainty about and severity of the consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to something that humans value.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.

... 13. Risk refers to uncertainty about and severity of the events and consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to something that humans value [16]. 14. ...
... The simplest, most widely used definition of risk, used by many risk managers, is described by the equation: risk is the probability of an event occurring multiplied by the consequences of an event that has already occurred [17]. 16. Risk is an important concept in a number of scientific fields, yet there is no consensus on how it is to be defined and interpreted [18]. ...
... Risk standardization can be expressed in layers, as presented in Figure 1. 16. Risk is an important concept in a number of scientific fields, yet there is no consensus on how it is to be defined and interpreted [18]. ...
Article
Full-text available
There are different approaches in different areas of what the risk is. ISO 31000 risk management standards describe risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives. Many existing risk assessment procedures are based on the assumption that risk is the amount of any damage or loss multiplied by the probability of an event that could cause the damage. We are proposing a new risk approach, based on Hillson’s positive risk philosophy, that risk is not just a threat but also a composition of new opportunities, efforts that need to be put in, and uncertainty. For this approach, we composed a risk formula and a methodology based on that formula. A prototypical software tool was developed, and an experiment was performed using this tool to evaluate the risk of several interconnected projects and validate the developed risk assessment methodology. It should be mentioned that, in the methodology, the decision-making process is performed traceably; therefore, it can be stated that it has explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) traits.
... In the literature, Aven and Renn (2009) contend that the definitions of risk differ covering the concept of expected value, probability distribution, uncertainty, while others regard risk as an event. For example, Kaplan and Garrick (1981) and Kaplan (1991) define risk as scenarios that have probability and a consequence, while Willis (2007) equates risk to expected loss. ...
... Also, Rosa (1998Rosa ( , 2003 defines risk as a situation or an event where humans and things of human value are at stake and where the outcome is uncertain. Aven and Renn (2009) find risk as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences (or outcomes) of activities concerning something of value to humans. Corporate risk-taking is also about analysing and selecting investment projects that have different uncertainties associated with their expected returns and associated cash flows. ...
Article
Full-text available
There is limited number of studies that explore the concepts of investment efficiency, financial flexibility, and investment scale globally. Moreover, in the African context, these areas continue to be grey areas with limited knowledge on the effect they have on the risk-taking behaviour of listed non-financial firms. Using a data set of 264 firms across 17 countries in Africa over the period 2007‒2018, this study explores the effect of investment efficiency and financial flexibility, as well as the effect of investment scale and financial flexibility on the risk-taking behaviour of firms. The analysis was conducted using the two-step system generalized method of moments (System-GMM), with the robust option. With the z-score as a measure for risk-taking behaviour, the results show that investment efficiency is paramount for enhancing financial stability, but investment scale and financial flexibility reduce the financial stability of firms. This nexus is moderated by firm size, and the effect of firm size on financial stability is found to be inverted U-shaped. The finding also shows the decreasing relevance of tangible assets against the growing relevance of intangible assets as the drivers of firm stability. The impact of other factors such as financial leverage, cash flow growth, revenue growth, GDP growth, and inflation are discussed in detail. The results have relevant implications for policy, practice, and future research.
... The concept of risk itself is not unproblematic. Aven and Renn [28] noted that there is no commonly accepted definition of risk and listed 10 widespread suggested definitions. They divided them into two groups: risk being expressed by prob- ...
... The concept of risk itself is not unproblematic. Aven and Renn [28] noted that there is no commonly accepted definition of risk and listed 10 widespread suggested definitions. They divided them into two groups: risk being expressed by probabilities leading to expected values and risk being expressed as uncertainties regarding events. ...
Article
Full-text available
In responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence-based policymaking and risk mitigation have been confronted with limited decision-making mechanisms under conditions of increased uncertainty. Such methods are particularly called for in contexts where reliable data to a large extent are missing and where the chosen policy would impact a variety of sectors. In this paper, we present an application of an integrated decision-making framework under ambiguity on how to contain the COVID-19 virus spread from a national policy point of view. The framework was applied in Jordan and considered both local epidemiologic and socioeconomic estimates in a multistakeholder multicriteria context. In particular, the cocreation process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, and preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups has often been missing from policy response to the pandemic, even though the containment measures’ efficiency largely depends on their acceptance by the impacted groups. For this, there exist several methods attempting to elicit criteria weights, values, and probabilities ranging from direct rating and point allocation methods to more elaborated ones. To facilitate the elicitation, some of the approaches utilise elicitation methods whereby prospects are ranked using ordinal importance information, while others use cardinal information. Methods are sometimes assessed in case studies or more formally by utilising systematic simulations. Furthermore, the treatment of corresponding methods for the handling of the alternative’s values has sometimes been neglected. We demonstrate in our paper an approach for cardinal ranking in policy decision making in combination with imprecise or incomplete information concerning probabilities, weights, and consequences or alternative values. The results of our cocreation process are aggregated in the evaluation of alternative mitigation measures for Jordan, showcasing how a multistakeholder multicriteria decision mechanism can be employed in current or future challenges of pandemic situations, to facilitate management and mitigation of similar crises in the future, in any region.
... Every object, subject or system is vulnerable, but the vulnerability differs in its general structure, evolution and outcomes (Downing & Bakker, 2000). In conceptual vulnerability and risk models, vulnerability is understood as an element of danger and risk context (Birkmann, 2006) and as the main factor leading to risk (Aven & Renn, 2009;Egbuji, 1999). They also show that vulnerability is created by uncontrollable external factors (Birkmann, 2006) causing external uncertainties which sustainability seeking organizations must confront and adapt to. ...
... Such conception reveals three factors of concrete situations leading to risk -choice, outcome and probability. Aven and Renn (2009) support this opinion and state that the essential qualities of risk are outcomes (most frequently damage) and the probability of certain outcomes. ...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic poses several challenges transforming the learning organization. The retention of sustainability in the context of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty requires immediate response. Therefore, this paper addresses the following research question: how does organizational creativity contribute to managing challenges in the context of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty as a precondition for resilience? Thus, the paper offers several contributions. First of all, the research dwells on the conceptual attributes of the learning organization: the object is identified and substantiated, the ways the learning organization's vulnerability manifests itself through are presented; the factors creating the learning organization's COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability are discussed; it is identified what capacities are necessary and in what learning processes they develop to reduce the learning organization's COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability. Secondly, the paper identifies and discusses critical challenges to the learning organization caused by COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, the ones that the organization must react to immediately to reduce its COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability: rapid social innovation cycle, expansion of organizational learning and optimisation of perceived organizational support for employee trust and commitment. Thirdly, the paper discuss how creativity is important for response.
... Risk perception refers to the people's subjective assessment of the probability of a specified type of accident happening and its possible impact [17][18][19]. The subjective judgement of risk includes personal beliefs, attitudes, experiences and feelings, irrespective of their validity, but also involves people's social and cultural background [17,19,20]. Perception of risk does not discriminate between risk knowledge on the one hand and the value judgement about its acceptability or tolerability on the other hand [20]. ...
... The subjective judgement of risk includes personal beliefs, attitudes, experiences and feelings, irrespective of their validity, but also involves people's social and cultural background [17,19,20]. Perception of risk does not discriminate between risk knowledge on the one hand and the value judgement about its acceptability or tolerability on the other hand [20]. People usually underestimate Fig. 7 Risk matrix approach displaying the differences in neonatal consequences for small for gestational age fetuses, using the 10th and 5th centile as threshold for the fetal abdominal circumference measured by ultrasound [15] continuous everyday risks as they are less salient compared with dread risks that may be overestimated, even if both cause the same number of fatalities [17]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Background Clinical guidelines are developed to lower risks, mostly viewed upon as probability. However, in daily practice, risk is perceived as the combination of probability and the impact of desired and adverse events. This combination of probability and impact can be visualized in a risk matrix. We evaluated the effect of interventions and diagnostic thresholds on modeled risk, by using the risk matrix approach (RMA) in a clinical guideline development process, and investigated which additional factors affected choices. Methods To improve care outcomes, we developed new guidelines in which care professionals had to decide upon novel interventions and diagnostic thresholds. A risk matrix showed the probability and impact of an intervention, together with the corresponding risk category. First, professionals’ opinion on required performance characteristics on risk were evaluated by a qualitative online survey. Second, qualitative assessment of possible additional factors affecting final decisions, that followed from group discussion and guideline development were evaluated. Results Upfront, professionals opinioned that non-invasive interventions should decrease the general population risk, whereas invasive interventions should decrease the risk in high-risk groups. Nonetheless, when making guidelines, interventions were introduced without reaching the predefined threshold of desired risk reduction. Professionals weighed other aspects besides risk reduction, as financial aspects and practical consequences for daily practice in this guideline-making process. Conclusion Professionals are willing to change policies at much lower level of anticipated effectiveness than defined upfront. Although objectively presented data structured group discussions, decisions in guideline development are affected by several other factors than risk reduction alone.
... If it were to be limited to unwanted outcomes, it would be required to distinguish what is when unwanted and for whom, as stakeholders will not always agree on the nature of the outcome. [AVEN09] Different classifications covering the types of risk are available. For instance, a general classification could utilize physical, social and economic sources or such according to the environment of origin (e.g. ...
Book
Full-text available
Medical devices are becoming more complex than ever, as do the networks they pertain to. The current trends in MedTech manufacturing complicate the work of a systematical and comprehensive RM process. At present, manufacturers implement many different, but exclusively document-based RM approaches. The work described in this thesis focuses on conceiving and validating a model-based risk management system that enables RM operators to overcome the endemic deficits of the document-based approaches. This shall be achieved by the formalization of RM steps, the role-based separation of procedures in computation and human action and by providing an RM system that enables an iterative RM process during the entire product lifecycle for all stakeholders. The research approach adopted mainly comprises an extensive study of relevant literature, reasoning and an implementation of applied research, carried out in a case study. A systematical and comprehensive RM for medical devices can be accomplished with a MBR concept. The iterative system design separates the operational and computational procedures in the MBR Core from the actions of the experts and stakeholders. A universal API processes all changes to and all documents generated from the MBR core. The sequential use of human expertise and computational rigor allows for the integration of document-based RM methods and techniques that are broadly accepted in the industry. A main factor for comprehensive RM results is the computerization of the identification of critical characteristics. The elements of the physical product are tagged with approved industry classifications. A novelty in product modeling is the utilization of an own block class for interactions instead of relational elements; it has proven to be functional and valuable in implementation. The software implementation of the system is shown on a demonstrator level. The validation of MBR in a case study applying two RM methods on two similar complex medical device systems, advanced prototypes of automated stem cell platforms, has shown the potential to drastically reduce the deficits endemic to document-based approaches. The augmentation of established RM techniques with legacy information can improve identification of critical characteristics. However, the case study also showed that the disposition of the panelists is key to the success of the concept. While proficient users of tools in MBSE explored the full potential in the utility tests, panelists with a basic to intermediate knowledge of MBSE, showed strong reservations against accepting “advise” from the augmented graphical model. In total, the model-based RM approach can be a significant contribution to the improvement of RM processes for complex medical devices and, in general, to the dissemination of risk-based thinking throughout all lifecycle stages, provided that all stakeholders engage in an openminded and interdisciplinary process.
... Because people and organisations are globally connected, the epicentre of uncertainty can be local or national, or it can even be transmitted across borders (Campello et al., 2018). Aven and Renn (2009) define risk as an event in which the outcome is uncertain. Given that the impacts of uncertainty and unpredictability are perceived as negative, the cited authors call for organisations to manage risk in their business operations. ...
Article
Although risk management is critical to all sectors of society, the attention given to the business sectors initiatives in this area has obstructed the advancement of knowledge about the remaining sectors. By systematically analysing 69 academic and non-academic publications, this study sought to highlight the areas of greatest interest in the literature on non-profit organisations (NPOs). Three topics stand out more clearly: risk identification, risk management processes, and risk mitigation strategies. The first two are more likely to be discussed in academic articles, while the last topic is prevalent in non-academic publications. Two main clusters of knowledge were identified in academic articles: risk exposure and risk management strategies. This review revealed that the focus of the literature on risk has shifted from strategies for transferring risk to NPOs as risky organisations that pursue complex goals whose success depends on strategic risk management. In addition, a critical review was conducted of risk conceptualisation and characterisation and of the findings of risk studies in the non-profit sector, thereby deepening the existing understanding of the progress made in this sectors still limited application of risk management. Moreover, the similarities, divergences, and limitations of the academic and non-academic literature are addressed. Risk managements role in the non-profit sectors sustainability is an understudied subject, but this field of research can only advance if practitioners make more risk-related information available to allow academics to gather the empirically robust evidence needed to support future studies.
... On the other hand, several review articles [6][7][8] collect parallel risk definitions from the scientific literature to demonstrate the multiplicity of perspectives on the understanding of the concept of risk. In [9], the risk is defined as an uncertain consequence of an event or an activity with respect to something that humans value. ...
... The concept of risk, over the years, has found wide application in the most disparate disciplines, assuming similar but different meanings (Aven and Renn, 2009). Sorrill et al. (1987) describe risk as the exposure to the possibility of an economic or financial loss or gain, physical damage or injury, or delay, arising from the uncertainty associated with pursuing a particular course of action, Klinke and Renn (2002) as the possibility that human action or events lead to consequences that harm aspects of things that human beings value, or the ISO 31000 (O -The International O, 2009) as the effect of the uncertainty on objectives. ...
Article
The management of a railway infrastructure involves the collaboration of different experts and the continuous choice between alternatives under the constraint of available economic funds with the need to maintain high levels of operational safety. This is even more significant for local railway networks where financial resources are limited. For this reason, decision-making tools play a central role, allowing to evaluate interventions based on their effects on system risk level. In this sense, the Risk Based-Decision Support Systems are becoming increasingly popular in railway sector, where are used for the optimization of the maintenance of the elements of the infrastructure, such as the track, civil works, level crossing and so on. A unified vision is not yet widespread and the application of the risk assessment and intervention programming process considering all the elements of the network and their interaction is still lacking. The aim of this work is to present a quantitative risk management methodology for railways to support decision-making processes for quantification and control of all the factors affecting the safety level of railway systems characterized by limited resources. The methodology is then applied on a local railway for the evaluation and prioritization of safety improvements interventions.
... There are, for example, several definitions of risk, uncertainty, and resilience, which are central terms in the risk vocabulary (SRA, 2021). The concept of risk analysis has emerged from its methods rather than from a distinct basic uniformly recognized concept and has struggled to find a precise scientific foothold, engendering a need to deepen its conceptual foundation (Aven & Renn, 2009;Haavik, 2014). These fundamental uncertainties have spurred researchers to further explore risk, as a science, and its conceptual base (Aven, 2020b;Beck, 1992;Bernstein, 1996;Bouder, 2007;Lupton, 1999;Renn, 2008;Slovic, 2000Slovic, , 2010. ...
Article
This article responds to the call advancing risk science as an independent research field, by introducing a conceptual model for risk analysis based on distributed sense-making. Significant advances in recent decades have expanded the use of risk analysis to almost every organization globally. Continued improvements have been made to our understanding of risk, placing a wide range of contexts under organizational control. This article argues that four dimensions are central in how organizations make sense of uncertainty in their context and hence do risk analysis: the activities the organization engages in, their sensory systems, the role and competence of individuals, and the ability to coordinate information through organizational structures. The structure enables insight into the decision-making process and the dimensions contributing to how organizations perceive risks and uncertainty in a given context. Three examples from the Arctic context illustrate the network risk analysis model's practical application and how it will expose weaknesses in these organizations' risk analysis and decision-making processes. Finally, the article discusses sensemaking in network risk analysis and how such an approach supports organizations' ability to perceive, collect, process, and decide on changes in context.
... In a similar manner, the United States Department of Defense describes risk as "the expression of influence and possibility of an accident in the sense of the severity of the potential accident and the probability of the event" [17]. Furthermore, in 2009, Aven and Renn [18] referred to the term risk as "the uncertainty about and severity of the events and consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to something that humans value". These varied definitions proposed in the literature can be categorized into three classes through which risk is described by (a) unpredictability and anticipated values, (b) by events/consequences, as well as ambiguity, and (c) in accordance to objectives. ...
Article
Full-text available
Businesses are bombarded with great deals of risks, vulnerabilities, and unforeseen business interruptions in their lifetime, which negatively affect their productivity and sustainability within the market. Such risks require a risk management system to identify risks and risk factors and propose approaches to eliminate or reduce them. Risk management involves highly structured practices that should be implemented within an organization, including organizational planning documents. Continuity planning and fraud detection policy development are among the many critically important practices conducted through risk management that aim to mitigate risk factors, their vulnerability, and their impact. Information systems play a pivotal role in any organization by providing many benefits, such as reducing human errors and associated risks owing to the employment of sophisticated algorithms. Both the development and establishment of an information system within an organization contributes to mitigating business-related risks and also creates new types of risks associated with its establishment. Businesses must prepare for, react to, and recover from unprecedented threats that might emerge in the years or decades that follow. This paper provides a comprehensive narrative review of risk management in information systems coupled with its application in fraud detection and continuity planning.
... However, risk related theories are developing along with their applications. With the gradual cognition of risk, e.g. it is understood as a construct shared by a social group, informed by available evidence (Aven and Renn, 2009;Thompson and Dean, 1996), there comes a trend on the discussion on fundamental issues in risk research. ...
Article
Digitalization is becoming a trend in our modern society and systems. Meanwhile, risk analysis and management has rooted and been applied in various fields. Therefore, there is an increasing need to integrate risk analysis and management into the coming digital society. Risk has been represented digitally by the product of probability and consequence i.e. R=P×C traditionally. However, it has been increasingly discussed to include strength of evidence (SoE) in addition to the traditional consequence (C) and probability (P). Although much advance has been achieved along this direction, there still remains challenges, e.g. ambiguity in rating SoE and visual expression of risk diagrams. This paper focuses on addressing these issues and meanwhile aims to make the risk expression fully digital so that it is more efficient and flexible to be included in a system analysis and visualization. This is achieved firstly by reviewing state-of-the-art discussions on SoE assessment in risk management and identifying the remaining challenges. Then, the paper proposes an approach to address the challenges by forming a fuzzy logic SoE index based on fuzzy logic theory, which enables a transfer from linguistic variable to a digital one with the ambiguity avoided. After the SoE index is formed, it is applied into BNs as the node size index to demonstrate its practical application. Meanwhile, with the BNs forming the infrastructure to calculate and present consequences and probabilities, it showcases a new system risk management approach. All the variables in the system can be expressed in a risk diagram. This further enables an improved risk visualization, risk management and risk communication for system analysis, towards risk digitalization.
... Having understood the risk and the vulnerabilities associated with rural communities, it becomes apparent that some communities are more vulnerable than others (McManus et al. 2012). In the context of this study, risk is defined as to uncertainty about and severity of the events and consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to something valued by humans (Aven and Renn 2009). This imply that they lack the resilience capacity to cope, react, resist, anticipate, and recover from various external factors that communities are exposed to (Franklin et al. 2011). ...
Chapter
This chapter is informed by literature and document review and content analysis. The chapter draws on the recent tropical cyclonic disasters that have been associated with most African countries leading to loss of property and human lives. These recent events have seen rural dwellers succumb largely to the impacts of natural occurrences following the disasters. The chapter recognizes that the disasters are artificial albeit linked to anthropogenic activities. The chapter observes that the existing infrastructure in the affected area is not adaptable enough to deal with the environmental change, as such, leading to huge costs repairing the damage caused. The findings of the study underpinning this chapter confirm that most developments in the rural areas of Africa are incremental and not guided by any form of planning. Rural houses are typically developed without any standardized template and. Unsurprisingly, the rural dwellers often develop substandard buildings constructed without heeding building standards. Thus, this chapter suggests that planning standards should be prerequisite for the development of sustainable rural settlements in Africa. By extension, there is also need to develop context specific building materials for the construction of durable and affordable housing structures in rural Africa.
... When the risk is referred to, it can involve numerous areas such as hazards related to a terroristic attack, concerns about complex technologies, stock market fluctuations, natural disasters, extreme sports dangers, or many other areas [34]. There is no specific definition for risk; however, it can be fundamentally defined as the probability of occurrence of accident times its consequence and uncertainties [35]. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Windtech device is a novel tool for measuring the sensation of the ‘cold’. Cold poses numerous challenges for industrial operations, human survival, and living convenience. The impact of the cold is not possible to be quantified just based on temperatures; however other factors such as wind speed, humidity, irradiance have to be taken into consideration. Efforts have been made to develop combined indices such as wind chill temperature (WCT), AccuWeather RealFeel®, and others. The presented article discusses these along with the industrial standards that emphasize on the quantification of the ‘cold’. The following article introduces the Windtech device and its operating principle involving ‘heated temperature’, where the ‘heated temperature’ is affected by environmental parameters including ambient temperature, humidity, wind velocity, and irradiance. The discussed Windtech device is calibrated for operation according to the ISO 11079:2007 standard.
... The status of risk as a mental construction, and the fact that the concept of risk spans different disciplines, from medicine to economics and engineering, has major implications that should be considered before starting any risk assessment. One such implication is the fact that, although the concept of risk has been the object of several studies and investigation, there is still not a single agreement about the definition of risk, as it clearly emerges from [6,7], where ten definitions of risk and five different examples of metrics are proposed, respectively. Nonetheless, most of those definitions and interpretations stem from the one given by [8], who stated clearly that risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects. ...
Article
Full-text available
Negligence in relation to aging infrastructure systems could have unintended consequences and is therefore associated with a risk. The assessment of the risk of neglecting maintenance provides valuable information for decision making in maintenance management. However, infrastructure systems are interdependent and interconnected systems of systems characterized by hierarchical levels and a multiplicity of failure scenarios. Assessment methodologies are needed that can capture the multidimensional aspect of risk and simplify the risk assessment, while also improving the understanding and interpretation of the results. This paper proposes to integrate the multi-criteria decision analysis with data mining techniques to perform the risk assessment of aging infrastructures. The analysis is characterized by two phases. First, an intra failure scenario risk assessment is performed. Then, the results are aggregated to carry out an inter failure scenario risk assessment. A cluster analysis based on the k-medoids algorithm is applied to reduce the number of alternatives and identify those which dominate the decision problem. The proposed approach is applied to a system of aging culverts of the German waterways network. Results show that the procedure allows to simplify the analysis and improve communication with infrastructure stake-holders.
... An ongoing discussion in risk studies has concentrated on the status of risk -to what degree it is an ontological concept (Aven and Renn 2009;Rosa 2010;Aven, Renn, and Rosa 2011;Merkelsen 2011) or whether it belongs to the realm of epistemology, often framed in the question of whether risks are real or socially constructed, culminating in the somewhat unsatisfying suggestion that they are both (Beck 1999). Risk as an expectation with regard to the future is a social construction even when referring to a material reality whose validity may also be proven when turning into a disaster. ...
Article
Understanding risk communication in the public sphere is important for risk studies since the management of risk not only requires decision makers and experts to communicate risk well but also to understand how risk is debated in the public sphere more broadly. This special issue therefore discusses approaches which examine the linguistic representation of risk in text and how it changes over time. With the increasing body of digitised text available for research, scholars are now able to use advanced quantitative content analysis, text mining technologies, and corpus linguistic computational tools for the analysis of large text corpora. These advancements are also useful for risk studies and social science research. Specifically, the news media and other bodies of large text (corpora) built from, for example, parliamentary debate, social media, or government websites, have become a valuable resource for the analysis of language and discourse of risk which can be used to better understand the dynamics of risk communication in the public sphere. The contributions exemplify different research strategies by means of a number of case studies (e.g. terrorism, obesity, fracking, climate change, pre-exposure prophylaxis, migration as well as diachronic analysis of the use of risk in parliamentary debate and news coverage) and discuss key aspects of applying such research tools. This introduction outlines the central features of different ways to approach risk through discourse and language, before highlighting unresolved issues and the prospects for research and methodology of corpus-based risk studies and, finally, introducing the contributions.
... Because people and organisations are globally connected, the epicentre of uncertainty can be local or national, or it can even be transmitted across borders (Campello et al., 2018). Aven and Renn (2009) define risk as an event in which the outcome is uncertain. Given that the impacts of uncertainty and unpredictability are perceived as negative, the cited authors call for organisations to manage risk in their business operations. ...
Article
Although risk management is critical to all sectors of society, the attention given to the business sectors initiatives in this area has obstructed the advancement of knowledge about the remaining sectors. By systematically analysing 69 academic and non-academic publications, this study sought to highlight the areas of greatest interest in the literature on non-profit organisations (NPOs). Three topics stand out more clearly: risk identification, risk management processes, and risk mitigation strategies. The first two are more likely to be discussed in academic articles, while the last topic is prevalent in non-academic publications. Two main clusters of knowledge were identified in academic articles: risk exposure and risk management strategies. This review revealed that the focus of the literature on risk has shifted from strategies for transferring risk to NPOs as risky organisations that pursue complex goals whose success depends on strategic risk management. In addition, a critical review was conducted of risk conceptualisation and characterisation and of the findings of risk studies in the non-profit sector, thereby deepening the existing understanding of the progress made in this sectors still limited application of risk management. Moreover, the similarities, divergences, and limitations of the academic and non-academic literature are addressed. Risk managements role in the non-profit sectors sustainability is an understudied subject, but this field of research can only advance if practitioners make more risk-related information available to allow academics to gather the empirically robust evidence needed to support future studies.
... Studies have shown that risk is a multi-dimensional concept, which is often specific to the system under study (Haimes, 2009). In extremely rudimentary terms, risk refers to the possibility of an uncertain outcome (Aven and Renn, 2009). However, risk is a complex issue that requires a more comprehensive definition. ...
Article
Full-text available
The open innovation paradigm has created substantial new opportunities for firms in various sectors. However, scholars have long expressed concern that open innovation also entails a dark side, which can result in value co-destruction. This concern highlights the importance of devoting attention to the perils of pursuing open innovation. Existing scholarship has given due credence to these perils by examining various associated risks and uncertainties. We observe that the extant literature is siloed and unorganized, which impedes future research. Positing that an endeavor to organize existing studies may enhance the pace of research in the area, we attempt to address this gap by reviewing the relevant literature. We thus utilize the systematic literature review approach to identify, synthesize, and critically analyze 80 related research articles. Based on this analysis, we present the bibliometric profile of the extant research and a typology of five risks in open innovation: data-related risks, people-related risks, firm-level risks, outcome risks, and other risks. In addition, we discuss a specific risk management approach for each of the identified risks. Beyond providing a lucid narrative of the extant literature, we also identify unexplored avenues and offer an overarching framework to conceptualize future research potential in the area. From a practical perspective, managers can utilize this framework as a risk assessment tool when engaging in open innovation. In sum, this review—one of the first of its kind—offers a valuable consolidation of the state of the art of open innovation risk research, which can meaningfully advance theory and practice in the area.
... According to the three-step proposed method, two terms must be distinguished: risk and impact. Firstly, risk has been widely studied and defined by many authors [3,40,41], albeit there is no agreed definition of the concept of risk [42]. In this research, risk has been considered as the result of the combination of hazard and intrinsic vulnerability of the system, an approach that is usually adopted in natural hazards and disaster risk reduction research [1]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Groundwater is an essential resource for humans concerning freshwater supply; therefore, preserving and protecting its quality is necessary. Risk assessment, based on hazard, intrinsic vulnerability information and mapping, may be considered as a key aspect of sustainable groundwater management. An approach has been made by combining the Nitrogen Input Hazard Index and the hydrogeological parameters considered in a modified DRASTIC method. A three-level classification has been used to determine the degree of risk, and the thresholds have been established following measurable criteria related to the potential nitrate concentration in groundwater. The second part of the study focused on estimating the socioeconomic impact of groundwater pollution by relating the degree of risk and social vulnerability to groundwater pollution. The method has been tested in the Gallocanta Groundwater Body (Spain). As a result, a risk map and an impact map are provided. The risk map shows that 67% of the study area can be classified as moderate and high-risk areas, corresponding to high hazard sources located in moderate and high vulnerability zones, whereas the impact of groundwater pollution is classified as moderate in the whole groundwater body. The proposed analysis allows comparison between aquifers in different areas and the results required by water authorities to implement control and mitigation measures.
... Perceived efficacy means an efficient understanding of hand hygiene compliance for nurses. Perceived risk refers to the perception of the dangers of leaving or doing certain activities (23). Nurses in this study stated that they observed hand hygiene because they knew the risks of not complying with hand hygiene. ...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction: Hand hygiene plays a huge role in removing hospital infections. The aim of this study was to explore the nurses' viewpoints about the factors affecting hand hygiene compliance. Methods: In this qualitative content analysis study, the data were collected through purposive sampling and semi-structured interviews with 15 nurses. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analyses were conducted using Lundman and Graneheim's method. Results: Six themes were identified, including the facilitator and barriers to compliance with hand hygiene on personal, interpersonal, and organizational levels. One theme was personal facilitator, with categories of facilitating the cognition and adherence to values. Personal barriers included cognitive obstacles, attitudinal barriers, and physical barriers. The interpersonal facilitators included supportive social climate and appropriate culture building. The interpersonal barriers involved inappropriate culture building and being under pressure. The organizational facilitators were strong leadership style, good managerial support, and competent staff evaluation; the last theme was organizational barriers with categories of poor leadership style, ineffective staff development, inconsistency in organizational policy, and incompetent staff evaluation. Conclusion: This study adopted an integrated approach to examining the factors affecting the nurses' hand hygiene compliance. It is recommended that future interventions should consider the differences at individual, interpersonal, and organizational levels and developed a tailoring approach.
... Health risk can be characterised as the probability of a situation or an event and its consequences related to infectious diseases (hepatitis B and C, HIV and COVID-19) and other health complications (eg, respiratory disorders, cancer, burn and skin irritation) of individuals' (eg, waste handlers) health. 9 MWHs, particularly those in LMICs, 10 are potentially at a higher health risk to various injuries and infections due to the manual sorting of dangerous materials at waste disposal sites. 3 Compared with high-income countries, medical waste management (MWM) in LMICs is not well equipped with the resources and capability to reduce health risks of MWHs. ...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction Medical waste management (MWM)-related factors affecting the health of medical waste handlers (MWHs) and their health risks in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are an important public health concern. Although studies of MWM-related factors and health risks among MWHs in LMICs are available, literature remains under-synthesised and knowledge fragmented. This systematic review will provide a comprehensive synthesis of evidence regarding the individual, system, and policy-levels MWM-related factors that affect MWHs’ health and their experiences of health risks in LMICs. Methods and analysis All qualitative studies published in peer-reviewed journals between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2021 with full texts available and accessible will be included in the review. Seven specific electronic databases (e.g. Scopus, Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, CINAHL, ProQuest, and PsycINFO) will be searched. Two authors will review the citations and full-texts, extract data, and complete the quality appraisal independently. A third reviewer will check discrepancies when a consensus cannot be reached on differences between the two reviewers. Data extraction will be conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute standardised data extraction form for qualitative research. The quality of articles will be assessed using a Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist. Results from eligible articles will be synthesised into a set of findings using the thematic framework analysis approach and will be reported according to the Enhancing Transparency in Reporting the Synthesis of Qualitative Research (ENTREQ) statement. Ethics and dissemination This review is based on published articles, which does not require ethical approval because there is no collection of primary data. Findings from this review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at relevant public health conferences. This protocol has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), registration number CRD42020226851.
... Multiple definitions of risk exist (Aven and Renn 2009;Analysis 2015), which are suitable for different contexts. The approach used in this paper defines the risk of a particular scenario based on two dimensions: its likelihood of occurrence and the severity of its impact. ...
Article
Full-text available
Risk assessment in communities or regions typically relies on the determination of hazard scenarios and an evaluation of their impact on local systems and structures. One of the challenges of risk assessment for infrastructure operators is how to identify the most critical scenarios that are likely to represent unacceptable risks to such assets in a given time frame. This study develops a novel approach for prioritizing hazards for the risk assessment of infrastructure. Central to the proposed methodology is an expert elicitation technique termed paired comparison which is based on a formal mathematical technique for quantifying the range and variance in the judgements of a group of stakeholders. The methodology is applied here to identify and rank natural and operational hazard scenarios that could cause serious disruption or have disastrous effects to the infrastructure in the transnational Øresund region over a period of 5 years. The application highlighted substantial divergences of views among the stakeholders on identifying a single ‘most critical’ natural or operational hazard scenario. Despite these differences, it was possible to flag up certain cases as critical among the natural hazard scenarios, and others among the operational hazards.
... Scholars mainly analyze the influencing factors of construction workers' unsafe behavior from following four aspects: human, material, management, and environment. For example, psychological capital (Eid et al., 2012), physiology (Yang et al., 2021), safety awareness and attitude (Mohajeri et al., 2021;Liang et al., 2022), and work experience (Alizadeh et al., 2015;Rey-Merchán et al., 2021) are human factors; personal protective equipment (Amiri et al., 2014) and construction equipment (Castillo-Rosa et al., 2017) are material factors; safety promotion policy (Man et al., 2021), safety training (Man et al., 2021), safety atmosphere (Liao et al., 2014), safety supervision (Fang et al., 2015), safety management, and safety culture Asilian-Mahabadi et al., 2018) are management factors; and working environment (Harsini et al., 2021) and social environment (Aven and Renn, 2009;Ma et al., 2021) are environmental factors. However, these studies only focus on the explicit analysis of the influencing factors of construction workers' unsafe behavior, and few studies have focused on the implicit correlation analysis between the influencing factors. ...
Article
Full-text available
The unsafe behavior of construction workers is the key cause of safety accidents. The accident investigation report contains rich experience and lessons, which can be used to prevent and reduce the occurrence of safety accidents. In order to draw lessons from the accident and realize knowledge sharing and reuse, this paper uses text mining technology to analyze the data of 500 construction accident investigation reports in Shenzhen, China. Firstly, a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model is used to identify the unsafe behavior of construction workers and its influencing factors. Then, with the help of Social Network Analysis, the importance of influencing factors and the relationship between them are identified. The results show that weak safety awareness, operating regulations, supervision dereliction of duty, equipment resources, and inadequate supervision of the construction party are the key and important factors. It is also found that there are correlations between weak safety awareness and supervision dereliction of duty, between equipment resources and poor construction environment, between organization and coordination and inadequate supervision of the construction party, and between operating regulations and hidden dangers investigation. This study not only helps to improve the theoretical system in the field of construction workers’ unsafe behavior but also helps managers to find the key control direction of construction safety, so as to effectively curb unsafe behavior of construction workers and improve the level of safety management.
... Uncertainty arises when it is not known whether an event will occur, when it will occur, and/or what its consequences will be (see Aven and Renn (2009), among others). Several studies have shown that uncertainty affects stock prices (Pastor & Veronesi, 2012;Ko & Lee, 2015) and volatility (Arnold & Frugt, 2008;Su et al., 2019), with the same true for uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 period (such as Liu, 2020;Smales, 2021a;. ...
Article
Full-text available
Information about COVID-19 abounds, but which COVID-19 data actually impacts stock prices? We investigate which measures of COVID-19 matter most by applying elastic net regression for measure selection using a sample of the 35 largest stock markets. Out of 24 measures, COVID-19 related Google search trends, the stringency of government responses and media hype prevail during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. These measures proxy for COVID-19 related uncertainty, the economic impact of lockdowns and panic-driven media attention respectively, summarizing key aspects of COVID-19 that move stock markets. Moreover, geographical proximity to the virus’s outbreak and a country’s development level also matter in terms of impact. The findings of this study have implications for investors, analysts, researchers and econometricians.
... Generally, risk is defined by many as any future uncertain event that may lead to negative or positive outcome. Basically, risk takes into account two aspects: the uncertainty about and the severity of the consequences of an activity having a value for human beings [5]. A simplified definition of risk can be stated as risk is equal to probability of a loss times the impact of that loss [1] [6]. ...
Preprint
A lack of empirical studies on Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) is observed, especially in the manufacturing industries that hinder their export performance index. Therefore, this paper conducts a risk analysis on the Ethiopian manufacturing company, case of Anbessa shoe share by generating an initial risk profile. An interview panel was conducted with executives from major departments, and the primary risks were identified, assessed, and evaluated. Findings corroborate the academic literature, reinforcing that companies recognize the importance of SCRM, but the concept is incipient and far from being successfully implemented in real life. Despite the fact that we identified important risks, the focus was on internal factors. Because the industry was exposed to risks from the external environment, no risk mitigation actions existed and is not the focus of this paper. This research is an initial step toward investigating SCRM techniques, offering academics a novel empirical approach that can serve as a systematic risk management tool for supply chain planning an operations.
... The piping system is a method of transporting fluids between pieces of equipment (equipment) in a factory or from one location to another to carry out the manufacturing process [1]. Pipes, valves, fittings (elbow, reducer, tee), flange, nozzle, instrumentation (equipment for measuring and controlling fluid flow parameters such as temperature, pressure, mass flow rate, and altitude level), equipment (heat exchangers, pressure vessels, compressor pumps), pipe supports (pipe support and pipe hangers), and special components are included in the piping system (filters, drains, vents). ...
Article
Full-text available
The oil and gas industry can contribute significantly to sustainable development by mitigating negative environmental impacts, such as equipment failure. Numerous pipeline failures have occurred due to the dramatic expansion of the oil and gas product distribution pipeline network, which is a significant factor in the offshore gas pipeline network's failure. In general, compared to other equipment types in the industry, planning inspections presents more challenges. Due to a lack of jurisdictional requirements regarding inspection intervals and piping methods. This research aims to ensure the reliability by conducting a risk assessment of the likelihood and consequences of equipment failure, mitigating the impact of that risk, and developing a more optimal inspection plan. This study is focused on API Class 5L Pipe 3" GL BO3-52520. The Routine Inspection Technique (RBI) was implemented in 2016 following the API 581 standard. This semi-quantitative approach is built based on operational data and validated inspection results. According to the risk assessment, the pipeline will have a medium risk level, with metal losses occurring in each segment. Four years after the risk-based inspection assessment, the recommended inspection plan for gas pipelines is four years.
... Based on this definition, safety could be viewed as the absence of unwanted events. [Aven & Renn 2009] has listed eleven definitions of risk, which are found between 1976 and 2008. Then, he proposed to divide risk definition into three categories: ...
Thesis
Depuis de nombreuses années, l’utilisation de machines en industrie est règlementée pour respecter des normes de sécurité et protéger les utilisateurs. Il s’agit tout autant de mesures de sécurité que de mesures d’ergonomie, l’objectif étant de protéger les travailleurs à long terme comme à court terme. Mais actuellement, de trop nombreux accidents du travail ou problèmes d’ergonomie sont observés sur les postes de travail. Dans ce contexte, l’objectif de cette thèse est de proposer un cadre de conception générique permettant de concevoir des systèmes de production complexes et multi-technologiques pour répondre à l’ensemble des objectifs de conception et de sécurité pour les opérateurs. Les résultats présentés dans ce manuscrit sont le produit de la confrontation entre les approches de conception existantes dans la littérature et les conditions réelles de conception d’un système de production au sein d’une PME. Le cadre général de conception s’appuie sur des concepts de différentes approches (conception basé sur le projet, sur le produit ou sur les activités du concepteur) agrégés dans un seul model pour simplifier l’intégration de la sécurité des opérateurs ou d’autres exigences dans le processus de conception. La modélisation proposée du system à concevoir est développé à partir d’une approche énergétique qui apporte au même temps toutes les informations nécessaires pour le développement du processus de conception et l’analyse de la sécurité des opérateurs. Cette modélisation prendre en compte le comportement, la structure et les flux d’énergie du système pour développer une solution adaptée aux besoins du client et qui réponds aux exigences industriels. La méthode proposée a été mis en application pour validation dans un cas d’étude d’un ilot de soudage d’une entreprise de la région dans le cadre de la Chaire industrielle Arts et Métiers et ses résultats son présentés dans le document.
Article
Full-text available
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are promoted as a practical option for developing countries to meet their water sector infrastructure gaps. Despite their appeal, PPP projects have been described as complex and challenging, and the water sector PPPs are particularly associated with high failure rates. Risk analysis and evaluations have been identified as critical to the success of PPPs. In this paper, we examine an on-going PPP arrangement for piped water supply in the Asutifi North District of Ghana under a Build, Operate, and Transfer arrangement. Safe Water Network will provide the supply systems and transfer ownership to the District Authority at the end of the contract. We reviewed key project documents to ascertain the measures that would minimize the likelihood of risk occurring during the project cycle. Of 11 risk factors, 7 were anticipated in the project documents. We recommend that project documents be reviewed and amended to address the unanticipated risks.
Article
Multidimensional risk assessment for natural gas pipelines has proved to be an efficient approach for companies to evaluate multiple risk perspectives and to determine different mitigation actions. Therefore, making decisions to ensure the system's best performance, taking into account safety issues, is a challenging task. This paper proposes a multidimensional risk classification with global sensitivity analysis by making a structured analysis of uncertainty that uses a Monte Carlo Simulation and visualization tools. For this analysis, five scenarios of a group of parameters are set according to operational and technical issues, consequences and the preferential properties of the model for pipeline sections. Then, sensitivity levels are statistically validated and defined for each section, thereby generating information on modifications to the classification of levels of risk. For example, 10% variation in the group of parameters related to the Critical Danger Radius (CDR), 6 out of 8 pipeline sections present high sensitivity levels; showing that their original risk classifications do not remain the same. Also, 4 sections are expected to be in the high risk class, while 1 section is expected to be in medium class and 3 sections in the low risk class. Consequently, managers should prioritize mitigation strategies to those sections with significant risk categories The advantages of our proposals are twofold. First, the proposed methodology enables decisions to be made on classifying risks which incorporate evidence on the sensitivity and uncertainties of natural gas pipelines. Secondly, effective information on classifying risk is provided to the decision-maker by using statistical validations and visualization tools. Thus, managers can enhance their perception of risks with regard to a natural gas pipeline, can generate insights to control mitigations and allocate resources to ensure safety for people, and can avoid losses regarding the environment and their companies' properties.
Article
How does regional economic integration affect the risk exposure of multinational enterprises (MNEs)? Investigating firm regionalization patterns, I uncover evidence of the regional risk paradox: as MNEs regionalize to exploit the lower risk environment offered by regional economic integration initiatives, they ultimately increase their regional risk exposure by deepening their commitment and embeddedness in regional business networks. Informed by the Theory of the Regional Multinationals and by theories of regional integration, I employ a social network lens to investigate the evolving structure of business relationships in regions governed by different regional integration frameworks. I then explore the implications of these evolving relationship network structures on the transformation of regional business risk. I find that moderately integrated regions lower transaction costs to moderately low levels, thus encouraging moderate MNE regionalization. This leads to moderate MNE embeddedness in loosely coupled regional business networks and a moderate increase in regional risk. By contrast, deeply integrated regions lower regional administrative distance to very low levels and encourage intense MNE regionalization. This leads to deep MNE embeddedness in tightly coupled regional business networks and a significant increase in regional risk.
Article
Background Many “dropout” studies use the concept of risk as a framework for understanding the persistent problem of high school noncompletion among students of color in urban schools. This research, which frames risks as statistical probabilities and largely focuses on static and individual risk factors, does not account for the myriad ways in which risks for school failure are produced within everyday school processes. Purpose This study employs a theory of risk—as indicative of uncertainty about how current circumstances impact future outcomes—that considers both objective and socially constructed dimensions of risk to understand how uncertainties about graduation arise and are negotiated within the high school context in ways that contribute to risk for, and eventuate in, school-leaving in the ninth grade. Participants Participants are 25 Latina/o school-leavers, 18–24 years of age, who attended the same high-poverty, high-minority urban public high school and left permanently in the ninth grade. Research Design Drawn from a larger participatory action research study of young adult school-leavers, study data were participants’ accounts of their schooling experiences, drawn from in-depth interviews and school policy documents. We examine these data to understand how a variety of school-specific factors and interactions between them contributed to risks for school-leaving and participants’ eventual departures from school. As guided by our framework, we analyze established risk factors and participants’ perceptions of uncertainty about school success and graduation, as related to school structures and policies, school practices, and social interactions. This includes attention to the transition from middle to high school, which prior research identifies as significant to school-leaving in the ninth grade. Findings Study findings indicate that, in addition to shifting expectations from eighth to ninth grade, policies, practices, and interactions among participants and high school personnel contributed to risks for school-leaving. Importantly, the ways in which uncertainties about school success were processed by individuals and through policy and practice both heightened and attenuated risk for high school noncompletion. Conclusions We argue that conceptualizations of risk that include its socially constructed dimensions will enhance researchers’ capacities to identify and understand the complexity of factors that contribute to school-leaving. This approach to risk also points to the need for further research on everyday school processes, the perspectives of school-leavers, and the ways schools—particularly those that serve low-income youth of color in urban communities—contribute to the problem of high school noncompletion. I was a freshman for three years, and then I just stopped … I was getting tired of doing the same thing over and over again, staying back. I just didn't feel like doing it anymore. Everybody else passed the ninth grade, and I stayed back, so I was like, “They could do it, but I'm not going to do it. I can't.” — TimDog, 20
Article
Why do we hear calls to separate and independently manage aspects of risk and resilience that are inherently related? These arguments are inconsistent with more holistic and integrated responses to wicked challenges—such as climate change—that are necessary if we are to find balances and synergies. The justification of such views is based on misconceptions of risk science that are no longer accurate. Rather than being irrelevant, the risk concept and related literature provide a wealth of resilience analysis resources that are potentially being overlooked. In this Perspective, we discuss how the modern view of risk can provide an integrated framework for the key aspects of resilience. In the face of growing calls to restrict risk analysis to narrow and specific events, this Perspectives argues instead for fully integrated frameworks that bring risk analysis into all aspects of resilience studies.
Thesis
The importance of the role of governance in reducing disaster risk has international recognition from the United Nations’ Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The decentralisation of decision-making has been proposed by scholars as a practice to improve disaster outcomes. However, there is very little research that examines the role of decentralised disaster governance in household disaster experiences. Much of the current disaster experience research tends to use aggregate trend data of numbers of people affected, fatalities and economic loss that reveal high-level changes over time, but provide very little sense of the outcomes for different types of affected households. Studies that focus on household-scale outcomes tend to be one-off studies that do not provide longitudinal evidence of changing household experiences over time. This study fills a gap by researching the historical associations between disaster governance and the lived experiences of households over three decades of disasters. The research problem is studied through the case study of Samoa, a typical small island developing state. Small island developing states are relevant case studies as they are often physically small and remote, low lying, and resource poor – all of which can affect disaster outcomes. By taking a political ecology approach, the study reveals how power dynamics within communities interact with formal governance systems. Despite differences between disaster outcomes experienced by all households, this research identified three ‘types’ of households, based predominantly on their primary income source, which had similar experiences. Households with access to formal income and those receiving remittances had improved disaster outcomes between 1990 and 2018. However, subsistence households experienced few improvements in disaster outcomes over this period, continuing to struggle to access income and food after cyclones disrupted their agricultural source of income. The research finds that while formal decentralised governance arrangements are important at the local scale to support collective action and local scale relief distribution, decentralisation of responsibility often occurs without the complete decentralisation of power and resources. Despite noteworthy reforms in Samoa, the current formal disaster governance arrangements have not improved the disaster outcomes for the most marginalised households. Households with low-income and low social status struggle to access both resources and access to decision-making within villages. For higher-income and more powerful households, improved disaster outcomes are more closely associated with increased national scale economic development as opposed to governance reforms. I conclude that for governance to improve outcomes, formal decentralisation of responsibility for disaster preparedness, response and recovery may need a concurrent decentralisation of power and resources. However, decentralising power and resources can also be problematic, leading to the concentration of power and resource capture by local elites. The thesis makes recommendations to improve disaster outcomes of all household groups, not just those that are already best placed to recover from disasters.
Article
Referral of cases from primary to secondary care in the Brazilian public healthcare system is one of the most important issues to be tackled. Telehealth strategies have been shown effective in avoiding unnecessary referrals. The objective of this study was to estimate cost per referred case by a remotely operated referral management system to further inform the decision making on the topic. Analysis of cost by applying time-driven activity-based costing. Cost analyses included comparisons between medical specialties, localities for which referrals were being conducted, and periods of time. Cost per referred case across localities ranged from R$ 5.70 to R$ 8.29. Cost per referred case across medical specialties ranged from R$ 1.85 to R$ 8.56. Strategies to optimize the management of referral cases to specialized care in public healthcare systems are still needed. Telehealth strategies may be advantageous, with cost estimates across localities ranging from R$ 5.70 to R$ 8.29, with additional observed variability related to the type of medical specialty.
Article
Full-text available
Bisphenol A (BPA) is one of the most studied and most controversial chemicals used by the food packaging industry, because of its endocrine disruptive properties. Part of the controversy is due to the uncertainty that surrounds the effects of BPA on the endocrine system. Uncertainty includes data gaps, methodological hurdles, incompatibilities between toxicology and endocrinology-based approaches, and so on. In this article, we analyze how uncertainty has been conceptualized and treated. We focus on the European Food Safety Authority assessments of BPA, and study how exposure and hazard assessments have evolved over time, how uncertainty has been analyzed, and how the agency responded to controversies. Results show that in the attempt to reduce knowledge gaps, assessments have become progressively larger, including more references, evidence, and effects. There is a tendency toward greater precisions and specification of results, and toward protocolization of all processes included in the assessment (from literature review, to uncertainty assessments, and public consultation). Yet, the uncertainty has not diminished following the increase in evidence. We argue that the strategy used to reduce uncertainty within risk assessment, namely including more variables, studies, data, and methods, amplifies the uncertainty linked to indeterminacy (as more results increase the fragmentation of the knowledge base due to the open-ended nature of complex issues) and ambiguity (as complexity gives way to multiple nonequivalent interpretations of results). For this reason, it is important to consider different types of uncertainty and how these uncertainties interact with each other.
Article
Risk assessment is a useful tool to inform decision-making when it comes to ensuring the continuous operation of critical societal functions. It can be used on many levels within an organization or on multiple societal levels. One way to conduct risk assessments on a higher system level, such as on national level, is to aggregate risk information from lower-level assessments, e.g. from the regional level. However, the process of aggregating risk information can be highly complex and different strategies for such aggregation are suitable depending on the underlying risk information, the characteristics of the risks that this information represents, and the analysts’ intentions in the aggregation process. To use a particular aggregation strategy, different conditions must be met. In addition, throughout the aggregation process, a range of both generic and strategy-specific challenges require attention and careful consideration. Little previous research has focused on describing and systematizing different aggregation strategies, including description of the conditions and challenges for employing the strategies. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to further develop the conceptual basis of aggregation and to propose a set of common aggregation strategies that can be used within the area of societal safety. Furthermore, the paper also aims at describing the conditions and challenges of employing the strategies. In total, six strategies are proposed based on what risk information that needs to be aggregated (likelihoods, consequences or neither). In addition, the aggregation can be simple, in cases where a set of conditions are met, or more complex where overlaps and interactions between scenarios must be considered. The framework can be used to inform the process of aggregating risk information and has relevance across a range of different application areas.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
یکي از اجزاي اصلي هر زنجيره تامين شبکه توزیع و فروش آن است؛ اما اغلب شرکتها به ریسکهاي کانالهاي توزیع خود توجه کافي ندارند و این امر گاه عواقب زیان باري براي آنان به دنبال دارد. ازاینرو احتياج به همکاري نزدیک و انتخاب درست شرکتهاي پخش در کانالهاي توزیع و حفظ همکاري بلندمدت با آنها، اهميتي دوچندان پيدا ميکند. این پژوهش با توجه به نقش اساسي توزیعکنندگان در بهبود صنعت غذایي، توزیعکنندگان شرکت کاله را از منظر ریسک مورد ارزیابي قرار ميدهد و پس از شناسایي ریسکها با توجه به پيشينه پژوهش به تعيين ریس کهاي مؤثر ميپردازد؛ و تلاش ميکند تا رابطه توليدکنندگان -توزیع کنندگان را از آسيب مصون نگهدارد؛ و سپس با استفاده از روش BWM فاصلهاي به محاسبه اوزان ميپردازد. درروش BWM در برخي موارد به جواب بهينه چندگانه ميرسيم. به این معني که حل مسئله با مجموعه مختلفي از اوزان امکانپذیر است. براي حل مشکل جواب بهينه چندگانه از تجزی هوتحليل فاصلهاي استفاده ميگردد که وزنها را بهصورت فاصله ارائه ميکند. یافتههاي پژوهش نشان م يدهد مهمترین معيار سهم بازار و سپس قوانين و مقررات هستند و سپس معيارهاي دیگر در رتبههاي بعدي قرار ميگيرند .
Article
The rough set is a tool for the assessment of uncertainty, and the rough set reducts formation is the technique to remove uncertainty in the feature set for feature subset selection. This work uses uncertainty theory from the rough set perspective to find uncertainty optimization-based reducts (UOR). We formulate an algorithm based on uncertainty optimization to obtain reducts of the feature set for effectiveness and performance enhancement in feature selection. The average accuracy of the reducts found by the UOR algorithm is up to 96.66%. The proposed reduct approach is compared with the existing methods using the same numerical datasets. The comparison results show that the UOR method finds feature subsets of minimum sizes with similar classification accuracy compared to existing reduct methods.
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter analyzes the EU’s economic and trade relations with the Western Balkans and discusses the declining interest of the EU in the Western Balkans in the last decade and the reasons behind it. Moreover, it demonstrates the volume of the actual EU-Western Balkans trade. Although it seems that the EU politically sidelined the EU accession of the Western Balkans countries, the Balkans region still appears to be important in the EU’s new trade policy. The new EU strategy, which was announced in February 2021, focuses on closer cooperation with regard to the green and digital transitions. The EU plans to modernise its trade and investment relations with the whole world as well as with the Western Balkan countries that are interested in more integration with the European Union. Hence, the green and digital transformation prospect of the EU will move the accession process of Western Balkan countries to a new phase. If Western Balkan countries can adopt, this will further green and digital transformation of the Western Balkans and turn them into more modern, environment-friendly and sustainable economies.
Article
Risk assessments are used to inform decision-making in hazardous systems. The process involves highly technical steps such as quantifying uncertainty and it is typically carried out by subject matter experts with a robust engineering background. The process also involves value-loaded steps such selecting the risk acceptance criteria for evaluating the risks. In the built environment, risk assessments support performance-based design and of late, these have been increasingly framed as the preferred option to quantify and demonstrate adequate fire safety performance. This argument is supported by the assumption that risk is an adequate proxy for fire safety goals. The present work puts forward a counterargument, stating that fire safety performance should be mainly defined as a function of fire consequences, avoiding the use of fire risk assessments as a proxy to fire safety goals. An alternative fire risk assessment methodology is introduced based on the concept of maximum allowable damage, which is exemplified in a combustible façade residential building case-study. The methodology presented here aims at building upon the knowledge and tools of fire safety engineering to obtain more trustworthy risk assessments and therefore attain a safer built environment.
Article
Human activities have progressively eroded the biosphere basis for our societies and introduced various risks. To navigate these risks, or potential undesirable outcomes of the future, we need tools and an understanding of how to assess risk in a complex world. Risk assessments are a powerful tool to address sustainability challenges. However, two issues currently hamper their ability to deal with sustainability risks: the limited sustainability science engagement with the multifaceted nature of risk and the lack of integration of social-ecological, complex, and resilience thinking into risk assessment. In this Perspective, we review and synthesize the wide range of risk definitions and uses and juxtapose them with knowledge on complex adaptive social-ecological systems. Through this synthesis, we highlight the strengths of each risk approach and outline five challenges that, if overcome, could turn risk assessments into a much-needed multifaceted toolbox for dealing with the certain uncertainty of a complex future.
Book
Full-text available
Edited by MUHIDIN MULALIĆ, EMEL TOPCU, JAHJA MUHASILOVIĆ A continuous association of the Western Balkans with negative metaphors reflected in the destruction, ethnic hatred, divisiveness, backwardness, and radical nationalism, significantly inhibit the future of this region. Thus, this book aims to explore the democratization process, reconciliation, regional cooperation, and integration as inevitable alternatives to nationalism, extremism, radicalism, divisiveness, and hostility. Ultimately, the idea is to change the public discourse from a predominant focus on the past wars, divisions, and hostilities to the common future, which draws inspiration from the common culture, heritage, democratic values, cooperation, and integration. The book will also prepare readers to encounter the dangers that seriously threaten the peace, order, stability, prosperity, and security in the region.
Article
Full-text available
Safety at work, both physical and psychological, plays a central role for workers and organizations during the ongoing outbreak of COVID-19. Building on the job demands-resources (JD-R) model applied to safety at work, in this study we proposed that the perceived risk of being infected with COVID-19 at work can be conceptualized as a job demand (i.e., a risk factor for work-related stress), whereas those characteristics of the job (physical and psychosocial) that help workers to reduce or manage this risk can be conceived as job resources (i.e., protective factors). We hypothesized that the perceived risk of being infected at work is positively associated with emotional exhaustion. Furthermore, we hypothesized that job resources, in terms of safety systems, communication, decision-making, situational awareness, fatigue management, and participation in decision-making, are negatively associated with emotional exhaustion. We also hypothesized that job resources buffer the association between perceived risk and emotional exhaustion. Overall, 358 workers (mean age = 36.3±12.2 years) completed a self-report questionnaire, and the hypothesized relationships were tested using moderated multiple regression. Results largely supported our predictions. The perceived risk of being infected at work was positively associated with emotional exhaustion, whereas all the job resources were negatively associated with it. Furthermore, safety systems, communication, decision-making, and participation in decision-making buffered the relationship between the perceived risk of being infected at work and emotional exhaustion. In a perspective of prevention and health promotion, this study suggested that organizations should reduce the potential risk of being infected at work, whenever possible. At same time, those characteristics of the job that can help workers to reduce or manage the risk of infection should be strengthened.
Article
Full-text available
This article examines ISO 31000-2009, also referred to as ANSI/ASSE Z690.2, the second of a trio of standards dealing with the concept of Risk. In our first review (Luko 20136. Luko , S. N. ( 2013 ). Risk management terminology . Quality Engineering , 25 ( 3 ): 292 – 297 . [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®]View all references) risk management terminology was reviewed. The terminology documents, ISO Guide 73 and ANSI/ASSE Z690.1-2011, were found to be identical and contained all of the risk vocabulary used in the subsequent two standards. In the present review, the second of the trio of standards concerning risk is treated. The general topic of this standard is risk management principles and guidelines.
Article
Full-text available
Participants were given several 2-option choices and then asked to review how they felt about their decisions, to review the details of their decisions, or to do an unrelated task. When later asked to attribute features to the previous options, in each condition older adults (64-83 years) attributed significantly more positive and fewer negative features to their chosen options than to foregone options. Younger adults' (18-22 years) attributions were as choice-supportive as those of older adults in the affective review condition but were less so in the other conditions. The age difference was present even when older and younger adults were equated for source identification and recognition accuracy. This study suggests that as people age, their tendency to distort memory in favor of the options they chose increases. In addition, it suggests that affectively reviewing choices increases younger adults' tendency toward choice-supportive memory.
Article
The study of risks and the impact of new technological systems in our society and environment is now accepted as a legitimate subject of research.
Book
The social amplification of risk framework (SARF) is the most comprehensive tool available for the study of risk. Theories and frameworks are useful and effective only insofar as they conform to certain fundamental features of logic: clearly defined terms, coherence, internal consistency, sound organization explicated with parsimony, accompanied by a specification of scope conditions, and the generation of testable hypotheses. The first goal of this chapter is to evaluate critically key foundational concepts of the SARF and to strengthen its foundation with a set of metatheoretical principles that have been coherently structured. The second goal is to use these same metatheoretical principles to establish symmetry between SARF and risk policy. Such symmetry should enhance communication between experts and laypersons in the development of risk policy and, therefore, remove some of the obstacles to effective, democratic risk policy. Genesis of the social amplification of risk framework The SARF developed in the late 1980s in response to the emergence of multiple perspectives in the rapidly growing risk literature. The multiple perspectives that emerged led, according to Kasperson (1992) one of the leading architects of the SARF, to key disjunctures which came to dominate the field: disjunctures between technical and social analyses of risk; disjunctures within the social sciences themselves (e.g. between the rational actor perspective (RAP) of economics and engineering and the psychometric paradigm; see also Jaeger et al. 2001); disjunctures between the older natural hazards social science and the newer technological hazard social sciences; and disjunctures over scientific and other claims to knowledge.
Article
We all like to know how reliable and how risky certain situations are, and our increasing reliance on technology has led to the need for more precise assessments than ever before. Such precision has resulted in efforts both to sharpen the notions of risk and reliability, and to quantify them. Quantification is required for normative decision-making, especially decisions pertaining to our safety and wellbeing. Increasingly in recent years Bayesian methods have become key to such quantifications. Reliability and Risk provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical and statistical aspects of risk and reliability analysis, from a Bayesian perspective. This book sets out to change the way in which we think about reliability and survival analysis by casting them in the broader context of decision-making. This is achieved by: Providing a broad coverage of the diverse aspects of reliability, including: multivariate failure models, dynamic reliability, event history analysis, non-parametric Bayes, competing risks, co-operative and competing systems, and signature analysis. Covering the essentials of Bayesian statistics and exchangeability, enabling readers who are unfamiliar with Bayesian inference to benefit from the book. Introducing the notion of "composite reliability", or the collective reliability of a population of items. Discussing the relationship between notions of reliability and survival analysis and econometrics and financial risk. Reliability and Risk can most profitably be used by practitioners and research workers in reliability and survivability as a source of information, reference, and open problems. It can also form the basis of a graduate level course in reliability and risk analysis for students in statistics, biostatistics, engineering (industrial, nuclear, systems), operations research, and other mathematically oriented scientists, wherein the instructor could supplement the material with examples and problems.
Article
We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author's overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.
Article
For more than 10 years, Ulrich Beck has dominated discussion of risk issues in the social sciences. We argue that Beck's criticisms of the theory and practise of risk analysis are groundless. His understanding of what risk is is badly flawed. His attempt to identify risk and risk perception fails. He misunderstands and distorts the use of probability in risk analysis. His comments about the insurance industry show that he does not understand some of the basics of that industry. And his assertions about the wrongness of allowing acceptable levels of exposure to toxic chemicals do not stand up to scrutiny.
Article
Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.
Article
A new ISO guide on risk management terminology has recently been issued. The guide provides basic vocabulary for developing a common understanding of risk assessment and risk management concepts and terms among organisations and functions, and across different application areas. It provides the foundation of, for example, the ISO 31000 standard on risk management. The guide strongly influences the risk assessment and risk management field, and its quality is thus of utmost importance. In this paper a critical review of the guide is conducted. We argue that the guide fails in several ways in producing consistent and meaningful definitions of many of the key concepts covered. A main focus is placed on the risk concept, which is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives, but also many other definitions are looked into, including probability, vulnerability, hazard, risk identification and risk description. Examples are used to illustrate the problems and show how they can be rectified. Although the focus is on the ISO guide, the discussion is to a large extent general. The overall aim of the paper is to contribute to the further development of the area of risk assessment and risk management by strengthening its conceptual basis.
Article
The prevailing perspectives and definitions of risk, at least in the engineering community, are based on probabilities. In this paper we argue that such perspectives and definitions are too narrow. The probability component of the risk concept should be replaced by uncertainty. By jumping directly into probabilities, important uncertainty aspects could easily be overlooked or truncated. In the paper we point at several extended risk definitions, and a formal structure for the various perspectives and definitions is developed. Fundamental concepts such as second-order probabilities and uncertainties are discussed. Examples are provided showing the importance of the choice of risk perspective in a risk assessment and decision-making context. The examples cover offshore operations, security and market price risks.
Article
A quantitative definition of risk is suggested in terms of the idea of a “set of triplets”. The definition is extended to include uncertainty and completeness, and the use of Bayes' theorem is described in this connection. The definition is used to discuss the notions of “relative risk”, “relativity of risk”, and “acceptability of risk”.
Article
Two decades of social and political analysis have helped to enrich the concept of risk that underlies the bulk of modern environmental regulation. Risk is no longer seen merely as the probability of harm arising from more or less determinable physical, biological or social causes. Instead, it seems more appropriate to view risk as the embodiment of deeply held cultural values and beliefs - the songlines of the paper's title - concerning such issues as agency, causation, and uncertainty. These values are incorporated into the formal methodologies, such as quantitative risk assessment, by which industrial societies assess risk. The meaning of risk accordingly varies from one cultural context to another, posing difficult problems for global environmental governance. The paper reflects on the role of science in promoting convergent perceptions of risk across disparate political cultures.
Article
The first goal of this paper is to sketch a three-part, synoptic framework that could ease the way beyond the current impasse of competition among the various metatheoretical orientations (e.g. realism vs. social constructivism, positivism vs. cultural theory, etc.) in the risk field. The framework will be constructed on a foundation of metatheoretical principles and its form will accommodate the best features of the competing orientations. Because the articulated principles will build first on a position of realism, we can refer to the framework as a whole as Reconstructed Realism (RR). Because the content of the framework comprises its first two key parts, ontological realism and epistemological hierarchicalism , we can refer to the content by the acronym OREH. The second goal of the paper is to epistemically connect the synoptic framework, RR, to a methodological framework for conducting risk analysis, thereby providing a bridge between theory and practice. The existing methodological framework that bears logical symmetry to RR is the one developed by Funtowicz and Ravetz in a suite of papers (1985; 1991; 1992; 1993; 1994) and which they call 'post-normal science'. Connecting RR- the synoptic framework under development- with postnormal science completes the third part of the framework, and the resulting product is properly labelled 'post-normal risk.' Our life of fishing is so perilous that even though we worship all the gods in the world, many of us still die untimely deaths. Noriko Ogiwara, Dragon Sword and Wind Child
Article
Presented here is an elaboration of the fundamental features of the meaning of risk. It distinguishes between analytic approaches grounded in realism and postmodern (including constructionist) epistemologies and the presuppositions of each. It argues that attempts to fuse the ontology of risk with epistemological considerations into a common definition is both internally contradictory and a weak foundation for a theoretically justified definition of risk. In place of a fused definition of risk, it re‐affirms a definition risk as a state of the world, independent of percipient actors.
Article
The risk journal literature lacks a clear and simple account of the conceptual issues involved in determining the overall risk of an action, and in explaining how risk is additive. This article attempts to bring a measure of clarity to these issues in as basic and non‐technical a way as possible. First of all, the view that risk is ‘expected harm’ is explained. The view that risk is a quantitative concept is then defended. The distinction between the risk run by doing action A in respect of possible outcome x, and the overall risk run by doing action A in general is explained, as is the position that the overall risk of A is determined by summing the risks of each possible harm that A could give rise to. The article then explains how risks can be summed over time, as long as the probabilities involved are determined according to probability theory. Finally, the article explains that in a doing a risk‐benefit analysis of A, positive aspects of a possible outcome x, where x is harmful on balance, must be incorporated into x's level of harm rather than incorporated into the benefit side of the risk‐benefit analysis of A.
Article
This note provides a response to Professor Eugene Rosa’s viewpoint to our paper On Risk Defined as an Event Where the Outcome is Uncertain published in this journal in January 2009. We argue that his summary of our work does not reflect what we are saying in the original paper. We restate that Rosa’s definition represents one possible way of looking at risk, but there are others, including ours. Rosa’s definition separates ontology and epistemology, which is an attractive property, but it leads to some conceptual difficulties which our definition avoids.
Article
This paper puts forward an overall view of statistics. It is argued that statistics is the study of uncertainty. The many demonstrations that uncertainties can only combine according to the rules of the probability calculus are summarized. The conclusion is that statistical inference is firmly based on probability alone. Progress is therefore dependent on the construction of a probability model; methods for doing this are considered. It is argued that the probabilities are personal. The roles of likelihood and exchangeability are explained. Inference is only of value if it can be used, so the extension to decision analysis, incorporating utility, is related to risk and to the use of statistics in science and law. The paper has been written in the hope that it will be intelligible to all who are interested in statistics.
Article
In quantitative risk analysis (QRA) risk is quantified using probabilities and expected values, for example expressed by PLL values, FAR values, IR values and F–N curves. The calculations are tedious and include a strong element of arbitrariness. The value added by the quantification can certainly be questioned. In this paper, we argue that such analyses often are better replaced by semi-quantitative analyses, highlighting assessments of hazards and barriers, risk influencing factors (RIFs) and safety improvement measures. The assessments will be based on supporting information produced by risk analysts, including hard data and analyses of failure causes and mechanisms, barrier performance, scenario development, etc. The approach acknowledges that risk cannot be adequately described and evaluated simply by reference to summarising probabilities and expected values. There is a need for seeing beyond the standard probabilistic risk results of a QRA. Key aspects to include are related to uncertainties in phenomena and processes, and manageability factors. Such aspects are often ignored in standard QRAs.
Article
Hazardous materials are potentially harmful to people and environment due to their toxic ingredients. Although a significant portion of dangerous goods transportation is via railroads, prevailing studies on dangerous goods transport focus on highway shipments. We present an analytical framework that incorporates the differentiating features of trains, notably volume and nature of cargo, in the assessment of transport risk. We focus on hazardous materials that are airborne upon an accidental release into the environment. Each railcar is a potential source of release, and hence risk assessment of trains requires representation of multiple release sources in the model. We propose a risk approximation approach, which is not only effective but also robust with regards to the positioning of hazardous cargo in the train. We report on the use of the proposed approach for the assessment of population exposure associated with “Ultra-train” that passes through the city of Montreal everyday.
Article
Sumario: Confronting risk tradeoffs -- Estrogen therapy for menopause -- Clozapine therapy for schizophrenia -- Licensing the elderly driver -- Saving gasoline and lives -- Eating fish -- Seeking safe drinking water -- Recycling lead -- Regulating pesticides -- Protecting the global environment -- Resolving risk tradeoffs Bibliografía: P. 273-317
Article
The purpose of this article is to discuss the role of quantitative risk assessments for characterizing risk and uncertainty and delineating appropriate risk management options. Our main concern is situations (risk problems) with large potential consequences, large uncertainties, and/or ambiguities (related to the relevance, meaning, and implications of the decision basis; or related to the values to be protected and the priorities to be made), in particular terrorism risk. We look into the scientific basis of the quantitative risk assessments and the boundaries of the assessments in such a context. Based on a risk perspective that defines risk as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to something that humans value we advocate a broad risk assessment approach characterizing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values. Key features of this approach are qualitative uncertainty assessment and scenario building instruments.
Article
Risk assessment is commonly seen as the domain of physical and biological sciences, with social scientists focusing instead on risk management and communication. This division is unnecessary, and it may lead to errors in risk assessments. Social science input is needed for more accurate calculations of risk consequences and probabilities and for identifying potential biases created by certain risk assessment procedures, as well as in analyzing and explaining public responses to risk. Findings, moreover, suggest that the dichotomy between "real" and "perceived" risk is less "real" than is often assumed, particularly in cases involving controversial technologies.
Article
Establishing tolerable levels of risk is one of the most contentious and important risk management decisions. With every regulatory or funding decision for a risk management program, society decides whether or not risk is tolerable. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness to prevent, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism by providing financial assistance for planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas. After briefly reviewing definitions of terrorism risk and rationales for risk-based resource allocation, this article compares estimates of terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004 to other federal risk management decisions. This comparison suggests that UASI allocations are generally consistent with other federal risk management decisions. However, terrorism risk in several cities that received funding is below levels that are often tolerated in other risk management contexts. There are several reasons why the conclusions about terrorism risk being de minimis in specific cities should be challenged. Some of these surround the means used to estimate terrorism risk for this study. Others involve the comparison that is made to other risk management decisions. However, many of the observations reported are valid even if reported terrorism risk estimates are several orders of magnitude too low. Discussion of resource allocation should be extended to address risk tolerance and include explicit comparisons, like those presented here, to other risk management decisions.
Article
Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues. Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as: A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues. An accompanying FTP site-developed with Professor Joost Santos-that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals. Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina. An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three. This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.
Culture theory and risk analysis
  • S Rayner
Rayner, S. 1992. Culture theory and risk analysis. In Social theories of risk, ed. S. Krimsky and D. Golding, 83-115. Westport, CT: Praeger.
Risk and culture: The selection of technological and environmental dangers Risk versus risk: Tradeoffs in protecting health and the environment
  • M Douglas
  • A Wildavsky
Douglas, M., and A. Wildavsky. 1982. Risk and culture: The selection of technological and environmental dangers. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Graham, J.D., and J.B. Weiner, eds. 1995. Risk versus risk: Tradeoffs in protecting health and the environment. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. 10 T. Aven and O. Renn Downloaded by [University of Nebraska at Omaha] at 15:43 19 April 2013
Foundations of risk analysis: A knowledge and decision-oriented perspective A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis and management covering both safety and security
  • References Aven
References Aven, T. 2003. Foundations of risk analysis: A knowledge and decision-oriented perspective. New York: Wiley. ———. 2007. A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis and management covering both safety and security. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 92: 745–54.
Risk analysis and scientific method: Methodological and ethical problems with evaluation societal hazards
  • K Shrader-Frechette
Shrader-Frechette, K. 1985. Risk analysis and scientific method: Methodological and ethical problems with evaluation societal hazards. Dordrecht: Reidel.
Risk society: Toward a new modernity Risk: Improving government's capability to handle risk and uncertainty. Strategy Unit report
  • U M A Beck
  • Ritter
  • London
Beck, U. 1992. Risk society: Toward a new modernity, trans. M.A. Ritter. London: Sage Publications. Cabinet Office. 2002. Risk: Improving government's capability to handle risk and uncertainty. Strategy Unit report. London: Strategy Unit.
White paper on risk governance. Towards an integrative approach Risk management vocabulary. ISO/IEC Guide 73
IRGC. 2005. White paper on risk governance. Towards an integrative approach. Geneva: IRGC. ISO. 2002. Risk management vocabulary. ISO/IEC Guide 73. Geneva: ISO.
A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis and management covering both safety and security
———. 2007. A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis and management covering both safety and security. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 92: 745–54.
Risk: Improving Government's Capability to Handle Risk and Uncertainty
Cabinet Office, 2002. Risk: Improving Government's Capability to Handle Risk and Uncertainty, Strategy Unit Report, UK.
White Paper on Risk Governance. Towards an Integrative Approach. Author: O. Renn with Annexes by P. Graham. International Risk Governance Council
IRGC (International Risk Governance Council), 2005. White Paper on Risk Governance. Towards an Integrative Approach. Author: O. Renn with Annexes by P. Graham. International Risk Governance Council, Geneva.
Risk Management -Vocabulary
ISO, 2009a. Risk Management -Vocabulary. Guide 73:2009.