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Housing policies and new construction. A study of chains of moves in Southwest Skåne
Abstract
Which type of new construction is most congruent with Swedish housing policy goals? Are present policies affecting new construction in line with explicit aims? A study of chains of moves in Southwest Skåne is employed to investigate these questions. The results show that the impact on the housing market via the chains of moves varies little between types of new construction. The immediate impact however varies considerably. Households moving into new owner-occupied dwellings come from the upper income strata and had good room standard before moving. Households moving into new rental dwellings have an income distribution not unsimilar to that of the region, and many were crowded before moving. The implications are that state support to new construction and especially to the demand for new construction should be funneled more into the rental sector and less into the owner-occupied sector than has hitherto been the case.
... Stockholm, as an example, has a low degree of immediate absorption in rental multi-family houses (below 30 per cent), whether they are privately or publicly owned (Turner, 2008). Similar results appear in an older study from Southern parts of Sweden (Skåne) (Clark, 1984). What we find in Oslo is a rental sector where most vacancies are immediately absorbed, with little difference between flats and single-family houses. ...
Vacancy chain theory suggests that mobility opportunities spread within and between specific states, typically flowing from attractive to less attractive units, with households moving in the opposite direction. We explore whether such welfare gains apply in a context, the Oslo region, which combines egalitarian welfare programmes and pro-market housing policies. We use merged census and register data from 2011, and include all events that initiate vacancies. Our results show that rental submarkets function poorly. There are many vacancies, but most of them are immediately absorbed by recruits, that is, households who leave no vacancy behind. Opportunities for disadvantaged groups are further reduced by rapid absorption of owner-occupied flats, often because privileged nest-leavers eschew the rental markets. Two related outcomes are segmentation between submarkets and segregation between Oslo Outer East and the remaining city. All of these adverse consequences reflect the costs of current policies, and call for initiatives that increase and improve opportunities in the rental sector.
... Through residential mobility, as the old story goes, quality housing trickles down to lower segments: " chains of moves arise—which benefit economically weak groups such as youth " (Odell 2007, our translation). That more than sixty years of research into residential mobility consistently shows that policies based on filtering have never more than very marginally improved housing for low-income households (e.g., Ratcliff 1949; Murie 1976; Clark 1984 Clark , 2010 Galster 1996; MagnussonTurner 2008) does not deter emboldened neoliberal politics from forwarding filtering as enlightened housing policy. The preceding empirical analysis shows the social geographic consequences of far-reaching neoliberal reformation of housing in Sweden from 1986 to 2001. ...
This research analyzes social geographic change in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö, the three largest cities in Sweden, between 1986 and 2001 and relates observed changes to a dramatic shift in housing and urban policies. Gentrification, filtering and polarization are mapped in the three cities, spanning two boom periods (1986-1991, 1996-2001) and a bust period (1991-1996). Polarization and segregation increase over the study period, manifested in super-gentrification and low-income filtering. Social mixing policy in Sweden is largely limited to efforts to mix housing tenure, and has not played any major role in social geographic change.
The focus of this report is on the predictive accuracy of residential vacancy chain models. There are two objectives. The first is to define the mathematical structure of a pair of multisectoral residential vacancy chain models. These models simulate the intersectoral transfer of vacant housing opportunities in response to either the creation of new opportunities or the absorption of existing ones. Residential mobility is given as an analytical by-product. The second objective is to calibrate these models and gauge the accuracy of their projections. Models with six housing sectors each are calibrated with 1975-80 data from three different Swedish municipalities (Gävle, Jönköping and Vasteras). Calibrations are used for projections into the proximate 5-year period. Projections of intersectoral residential mobility for 1980-85 are compared statistically with observed moves for the period. Coefficients of determination range between 0.93 and 0.97. Log-linear analysis shows projection error ranging from 3 to 12 per cent. The projective accuracy of these models exceeds that of any known alternative. The empirical success of these models points to their value in understanding processes affecting the formation and change of urban residential structure.
Studies of the impacts of gentrification have traditionally taken a relatively narrow view, focusing on the gentrifiers who move in and those who they displace. This paper seeks to apply the broader framework of residential mobility, using the vacancy chain concept to examine the knock-on implications across the entire housing market. Taking the case study of Stockholm, it is shown that tenure conversions from rental to co-operative ownership are of limited direct significance for gentrification. However, the indirect effects of this process, through the linked chains of household moves initiated, serve to reinforce other gentrification mechanisms operating within the rental sector, such as allocation mechanisms for rental housing. Therefore, the impacts of gentrification can be significantly underestimated if the wider effects on the housing market are ignored. It is suggested that this residential mobility approach is particularly important if the displacement effects of gentrification and the plight of any losers are to be fully appreciated.
Among the numerous studies of vacancy chains in housing markets there has been a predominant tendency to study chains initiated by new construction. This paper deals primarily with vacancy chains which are initiated by migration from Oslo. Estimates show that migration chains comprise half of the total supply of housing.The data show that different forms of tenure and types of housing do not determine in any considerable way the mean length of the new construction chains. In the chains initiated by out‐migration, on the other hand, the owner occupied dwellings give rise to longer chains than do other forms of tenure.The housing markets activated through the latter chains were dominated by dwellings with no or rather small unsubsidised private loans. These markets supply housing to young people, and to migrants to the city. Due to various changes in policy available markets to these groups are decreasing.The authors discuss three implications of this study. Firstly, the method and interviewing process are outlined, and the limitations are discussed. Secondly, the contribution to a general understanding of the housing market is briefly elaborated. Thirdly, some ways are shown in which the studies of moving chains can contribute to policy formation in the housing sector.
This paper is concerned with housing mobility within the socialist housing system in Hungary. The statementsof the filtering theory have to be reformulated in the context of East European countries. On the basis of our empirical findings-acquired from three vacancychain surveys-it seems justified to reject the two main hypotheses concerning the role of the state in a socialist housing system. Our empirical data have revealed that the state form of provision cannot be regarded as either typically "social" or as clearly regressive. In addition, the social composition of the mobility processes is highly similar in the state and private spheres: filtering processes are started by higher-status social strata; better-off, higherranked families get better housing in both spheres. In our view both forms of housing provision are structured according to two different principles of allocation. Our results show that the changes in recent years in the Hungarian housing system do not only mean a shift in the proportion of state and private provisions (the latter gaining ground, i.e., strengthening tendencies of privatization) but also a modification of the inner, ecological structure of both forms of provision. Because of the similarity of the social processes in the two main provision forms, the recent privatization tendency has in itself no clear impact on the social outcome of the housing policy.
During the last twenty-five years, housing policy in Sweden has radically changed. Once forming a pillar of the comprehensive welfare system, abbreviated the "Swedish model," neoliberal housing politics have established market-governed housing provision with a minimum of state engagement. This shift has had consequences on the social geography of housing conditions. The research reported here analyzes social geographic change in Sweden's three largest cities-Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö-between 1986 and 2001, relating observed patterns of gentrification and filtering to cycles of accumulation and to neoliberalization of housing policies. First, we outline the neoliberalization of Swedish housing policies. We then present an empirical analysis of gentrification and filtering in the three cities, spanning two boom periods (1986-1991, 1996-2001) and a bust period (1991-1996). The data reveal social geographic polarization manifested in the growth of supergentrification and low-income filtering. The analysis also introduces the concept of ordinary gentrification, supporting the move in gentrification research toward a broad generic conception of the process. Political reforms after 2001 are summarized and we argue that these underlie the continued increase in inequality and that the social geographic polarization mapped between 1986 and 2001 has probably intensified during this decade.
Norwegian housing policy has been orientated to ownership. Housing cooperatives were organized in order to deal with social housing in the urban areas, where other nations made arrangements for a public rental sector. During the first part of the 80s, the former regulations on sales in the cooperative sector were for the main part withdrawn. The aim of this article is to describe the effects on sales prices, housing costs and recruitment of this new policy. The particular Norwegian expression in the question of ownership, was more of a liberalization process than of any privatisation. The majority of the households in the cooperative sector were given an extension of their rights, and they were thereby given the opportunity of selling to market‐oriented prices. Generally, the prices rose in a period where liberalization took place. Liberalization in the former regulated cooperative market meant an increase in rights for the sellers and far higher prices for the buyers. The rise in prices affected recruitment to a surprisingly low extent, mostly due to a corresponding deregulation of the credit market.
Our purpose is to demonstrate the application of vacancy chain models to housing needs assessment and residential development impact assessment. The empirical base consists primarily of merged data files from the 1975 and 1980 Swedish Census for Population and Housing for the Municipality of Gävle. Our objectives are to calibrate a Markov vacancy chain model for impact assessment, disaggregate that model to identify development impacts on the mobility of specific population subgroups, calibrate a Leontief (input/output‐like) vacancy chain model and demonstrate its use in assessing the need for new housing given a vector of anticipated immigrants and newly formed households. The article concludes with a discussion of the range and limitations of vacancy chain models in applied contexts.
Interoccupational relations are discussed in terms of the formation, interoccupational transfer and absorption of vacant job opportunities as first explored by White (1970a). This article proceeds through several steps to develop Markov and Leontief models of the vacancy transfer process. It explores their use in simulating impacts of economic and demographic events on occupational mobility, and their interpretation and use as linear programs. A numerical illustration based on U.S. Census (1973) data for Utah is presented. Application of well-known mathematical theorems to analyze the job vacancy transfer process within a regional labor market provides a means to explore previously unidentified relationships between economics, demographics and occupational mobility.
In regional science, there is a class of linear, multisectoral models whose solutions were first found as the summation of a power expansion series. Regional input-output models, Garin-Lowry models and Markov chain models represent familiar examples. Each begins with a partitioning of system state space into discrete sectors. Each generates sector-specific multipliers. Accurate estimation of multipliers depends, in part, upon the degree of homogeneity within system state space sectors. This paper's first objective is to explore the effects intrasectoral heterogeneity on multipliers used in a Markov model of residential vacancy chains. Its second objective is to develop a method for defining internally homogeneous sectors. Our data is a linked 1975-'80-'85 file on housing and population in Gävle, Sweden. It is used to calibrate vacancy chain models with crude and refined sectoral definitions. Matrix algebra is used to find the effects of sectoral definitions on vacancy chain lengths. Long-linear analysis is used to measure the contribution of sectoral refinements to overall data variation. A two-stage, nested clustering strategy is used to define homogeneous sectors for two time periods. Finally questions are advanced about the stability of sectoral definitions, multisectoral relationships, and the dynamics of sectoral formation.
Assesses the way in which different types of housing construction affect the welfare and regional residential patterns of households, as indicated by case studies of two planned vacancy chain studies in the Malmo and Stockholm regions. In the context of North American and British experience, and through the use of such concepts as housing turnover filtration, gentrification and blow-out, the studies contribute to an understanding of housing and residential mobility in Sweden.-J.Sheail
Looking at housing policy in terms of the careers of vacancies in the system offers a new perspective for deciding on program priorities. Available data indicate that the filtering process enables four families to move for every new unit built. The filtering process can be modeled using probabilities for the movement of housing vacancies. New vacancies are generated by the flow of families out of the metropolitan area as well as by the flow of new houses into the metropolitan stock.
Flyttekjeder i Oslo-området. (Chains of moves in the Oslo region
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Housing, residential mobility and studies of chains of moves. Stockholm: Swedish Ministry of Industry, Expert Group for Regional Studies
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Boligpolitikkens sociale aspekter: Med særlig henblik på flyttekædeme”. (Social aspects of housing policy: a perspective on chains of moves
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Öberg, S. (1978) Flyttningsteori på 1800-talet -med utblickar mot 1900-talet. (Migration theory in the 19th century—with views towards the 20th century.) Stockholm: Swedish Ministry of Industry, Expert Group for Regional Development (ERU), Report F10. Downloaded by [Bangor University] at 00:58 23 December 2014
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Unpublished report for the LO-trade union confederation
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Vacancy chains and housing market research. A critical evaluation
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Flyttningsteori på 1800-talet - med utblickar mot 1900-talet. (Migration theory in the 19th century-with views towards the 20th century
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Flyttekjeder i Trondheim. (Chains of moves in Trondheim
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Flyttekjeder. (Chains of moves
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Kredit- och skattepolitikens samband med bostadspolitiken”, (The connections between credit and the tax policies and housing policies)”. In Bostadsfrågan under 80-talet. (The Housing Question During the 80's
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